Full Comment - Poilievre built a new Conservative party. He’ll need to build another

00:00:00.000 Did you lock the front door?

00:00:04.060 Check.

00:00:04.620 Closed the garage door?

00:00:05.780 Yep.

00:00:06.300 Installed window sensors, smoke sensors, and HD cameras with night vision?

00:00:09.780 No.

00:00:10.620 And you set up credit card transaction alerts, a secure VPN for a private connection,

00:00:14.060 and continuous monitoring for our personal info on the dark web?

00:00:17.080 Uh, I'm looking into it?

00:00:19.600 Stress less about security.

00:00:21.360 Choose security solutions from Telus for peace of mind at home and online.

00:00:25.220 Visit telus.com slash total security to learn more.

00:00:28.780 Conditions apply.

00:00:31.000 Wait, I didn't get charged for my donut.

00:00:34.400 It was free with this Tim's Rewards points.

00:00:36.600 I think I just stole it.

00:00:38.000 I'm a donut stealer!

00:00:39.920 Oof.

00:00:40.580 Earn points so fast, it'll seem too good to be true.

00:00:43.600 Plus, join Tim's Rewards today and get enough points for a free donut, drink, or Timbits.

00:00:48.400 With 800 points after registration, activation, and first purchase of a dollar or more.

00:00:51.960 See the Tim's app for details at participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time.

00:00:55.380 Whether you own a bustling hair salon or a hot new bakery, you need business insurance that

00:01:05.040 can keep up with your evolving needs.

00:01:06.960 With flexible coverage options from TD Insurance, you only pay for what you need.

00:01:11.120 TD.

00:01:12.320 Ready for you.

00:01:13.220 There was an old Crowded House song called Four Seasons in One Day.

00:01:20.140 This election felt like three different campaigns in one.

00:01:23.600 Hello, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:01:24.680 Welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.

00:01:26.200 We're going to take one more go around the track with our Political Hack newsletter, writers,

00:01:32.420 correspondents, editors, Tasha Kiridan and Stuart Thompson from National Post, and dissect

00:01:37.160 what happened and try and make sense of it all.

00:01:41.440 Welcome again.

00:01:43.860 What a weird election.

00:01:46.220 From the beginning of the year, a surefire conservative majority to, now it's going to

00:01:50.620 be a surefire liberal majority, to what the heck just happened on Monday.

00:01:56.200 Stuart?

00:01:57.320 Yeah, well, it's kind of insane that we had all this tumult in the Canadian political discourse,

00:02:03.400 and now we are in a situation where we have a liberal minority government probably propped

00:02:08.060 up by the NDP.

00:02:09.300 So here we are again.

00:02:11.940 I think that's probably the story of the election.

00:02:15.040 And the story is, I mean, the psyches of the people involved.

00:02:18.840 I can only imagine if you are a conservative MP or if you're Pierre Polyev, how you feel.

00:02:24.160 Well, I think it's almost relief because I feel like they could have been beaten even

00:02:28.840 worse.

00:02:29.300 But also they're thinking back to December when they were worried about, you know, what

00:02:33.540 if we win too many seats and we have a caucus that's too big and unruly?

00:02:37.480 And they were thinking about stuff like that.

00:02:39.540 And then you have the liberals who I think they were playing with house money all spring.

00:02:43.000 And it's even for them, they have this missed opportunity where I think the majority was

00:02:49.720 on the table.

00:02:50.420 I think they lost a couple of seats around the GTA that they probably should have won.

00:02:54.480 And they now have to deal with the minority when I think a majority was for sure possible.

00:03:01.180 So here we are back where we were not too long ago.

00:03:05.780 Tasha, your quick thoughts?

00:03:07.080 Well, I think the biggest surprise was Polyev losing his seat.

00:03:12.980 That was not expected, though there were rumors he was in trouble.

00:03:15.700 But by 4,000 votes, it's a lot.

00:03:17.960 I think that that changed the game on a lot of things.

00:03:22.520 Echoing some of what Stewart said, you know, I think the liberals could have gotten a majority.

00:03:26.580 I was still predicting minority for a couple of reasons.

00:03:30.460 One is that the conservatives traditionally have what's called the ballot box bounce.

00:03:34.620 People who don't say they're going to vote conservative, and then they do.

00:03:38.340 And so that adds a couple of percent to their total.

00:03:40.860 And that could put them over the top in some ridings, as Stewart mentioned.

00:03:44.660 So that could deny the liberals their majority.

00:03:48.720 And that's kind of what happened, but not for the reasons people thought as much.

00:03:52.100 The NDP and the People's Party, no one's talking about the People's Party.

00:03:56.040 They should, because they completely collapsed in selection.

00:03:58.680 And the combination of those two parties collapsing gave the conservatives

00:04:02.000 the seats they needed in Ontario and B.C. to deny a majority to the liberals.

00:04:07.240 It's very interesting.

00:04:08.640 The conservatives are a very different party than they were before.

00:04:10.900 So that is one of the other messages in this election.

00:04:12.740 So the fact that Polly have lost his seat after he rebuilt the party

00:04:15.540 to this new coalition of people that could have potentially won maybe a minority,

00:04:22.580 I don't think a majority, but maybe, after the tea leaves changed after Christmas,

00:04:27.160 it's quite something.

00:04:29.900 It is like an unseen or unforeseen development in Canadian politics.

00:04:36.900 And I'm just waiting for the next chapter.

00:04:39.260 It's going to be rock and roll from here on, I'm sure.

00:04:42.300 Tasha, I read your piece on the PPC and the NDP collapsing.

00:04:47.740 I mean, my view is the People's Party had evaporated over the last several years.

00:04:53.980 They had gone away.

00:04:55.760 Now, they had 5% in the last election, 4.9% of the total vote.

00:05:00.500 But it's when you break it down by ridings.

00:05:02.120 In some ridings, they had 12% of the vote in 2021.

00:05:05.320 And Polly have cannibalized that after he became leader. 1.00

00:05:08.700 It faded away.

00:05:09.480 You're right.

00:05:10.240 But that means that that voter base shifted somewhere.

00:05:13.580 And I'm pretty sure it went conservative.

00:05:15.420 I don't know where else it would have gone.

00:05:17.640 And to me, it explains a lot of the way they carried on their campaign,

00:05:20.840 why they didn't bash Trump earlier than they did,

00:05:23.140 because two-thirds of the PPC voters would have voted for Trump.

00:05:27.200 And also some of the issues they raised in the last week of the campaign.

00:05:31.240 Things that were kind of disconnected.

00:05:33.700 You know, like everything from, what was it, the sort of the plastic straws reversing that ban

00:05:40.840 to locking up criminals, like hard language.

00:05:43.920 Stuff that would resonate with that audience.

00:05:45.340 And everyone was wondering, why are these things coming out when Trump is all of a sudden making

00:05:49.500 noises?

00:05:50.000 And that should be the focus.

00:05:51.120 And no, because they had to consolidate that vote.

00:05:53.720 In some ridings, that did make the difference.

00:05:55.980 Because you had 10% of voters.

00:05:57.620 And Roman Baber's riding was a perfect example.

00:05:59.880 They didn't even run a candidate there, the PPC.

00:06:02.220 And so those people had nowhere else to go.

00:06:04.280 And the idea was we got to keep them in the fold, keep them motivated.

00:06:07.080 So I really do think it's a new coalition of voters,

00:06:10.560 including a lot of Gen Z and millennial angry.

00:06:13.280 And they could be living anywhere, right?

00:06:14.520 They're not necessarily in rural parts or in exurbs.

00:06:17.840 They're angry voters.

00:06:19.160 But the point is a conservative party is very different.

00:06:22.200 And Polyev really created something.

00:06:23.760 He, you know, he worked hard on this.

00:06:25.920 And he thought that this new coalition of voters could win.

00:06:30.360 And they were until Trudeau left and until Trump came in.

00:06:33.780 But really, when Trudeau left, Trudeau was the glue that cemented that group of voters,

00:06:38.300 plus a whole bunch of other people, including some liberals who just hated Trudeau.

00:06:42.020 So when that fell apart, it didn't work.

00:06:45.220 Stuart, as we're talking right now on Friday, we have yet to hear from Pierre Polyev since the election.

00:06:54.240 We don't know what's going to happen.

00:06:57.260 I mean, I've heard from the caucus members, as I'm sure both of you have, that they don't want him to go anywhere.

00:07:04.520 They want him to stay on.

00:07:06.820 But apparently he hasn't even called Bruce Fanjoy to say congratulations on winning Carleton.

00:07:11.780 He's not talking to anyone that I can tell, although apparently calling up caucus members.

00:07:17.260 But wider than that doesn't appear that he's talking.

00:07:20.200 What happens next with him?

00:07:23.120 It's a great question.

00:07:24.420 And I do remember we did some reporting for an election wrap piece, just the big piece about the whole election.

00:07:30.260 And I don't think this made it into the piece.

00:07:32.320 But one of our reporters in the bureau was talking to someone who said, he said, what will Pierre Polyev do if he loses?

00:07:39.120 And the person kind of half jokingly said, well, he will go into a dark place for a little while.

00:07:44.820 And I think that's fair because this is basic.

00:07:47.560 I think that's what anyone would do to a degree.

00:07:49.680 It's his life's dream, too.

00:07:50.840 This is a guy who's been planning for this since he was 14 years old.

00:07:53.840 And not only that, it is his local writing.

00:07:58.040 I know that he cared a lot about that.

00:08:00.220 And he had a lot of pride in the fact that that was not an easy writing.

00:08:03.720 This wasn't Stephen Harper's Calgary writing where you never had to think about it.

00:08:07.180 This was a writing full of public servants.

00:08:10.120 Ottawa is, you know, depends on where you are, but it's probably generally a left of center city.

00:08:16.340 And it actually took some really hard work for Polyev to win that.

00:08:20.100 And I think he got spooked in 2015 when it was pretty close.

00:08:23.620 So I think he does deserve some credit for maintaining that writing for as long as he did.

00:08:28.920 And something I think larger happened in Ottawa that he was swept away.

00:08:32.560 And it might have been the Freedom Convoy stuff.

00:08:34.480 It might have been people worried about public service cuts or whatever.

00:08:38.300 But yeah, that was a trend across the city.

00:08:42.120 I think the Conservatives will get together on Tuesday at a caucus meeting.

00:08:45.660 And they will probably have some kind of airing of grievances.

00:08:49.000 And then I don't know how it'll go.

00:08:51.660 I think it'll be really interesting to see how Polyev reacts to this.

00:08:54.460 Whether he has some contrition.

00:08:56.860 Whether he admits some mistakes.

00:08:58.420 Whether we see some staff members go.

00:09:00.340 I think that will tell us a lot about his demeanor in the next couple of years.

00:09:06.380 Tasha, should he stay on?

00:09:09.320 Does he stay on?

00:09:10.620 You sound like you want a different Conservative Party back.

00:09:13.620 You know, a more moderate one.

00:09:15.880 Run by a moderate like Erin O'Toole or Jean Charest.

00:09:18.740 Which, by the way, the media would just call far right anyway.

00:09:22.080 And would still denounce them as, you know.

00:09:24.640 I love those discussions.

00:09:26.200 Well, I mean, these aren't moderate Conservatives.

00:09:29.140 Like back in Brian Mulroney's day.

00:09:30.740 Talk to people who were in Mulroney's government.

00:09:33.640 And they were described in the same terms. 0.92

00:09:36.500 Fascist, Hitler, far right.

00:09:38.960 All these things.

00:09:40.360 Doesn't matter how moderate you get.

00:09:42.200 You're still going to be labeled all these things.

00:09:43.760 But what do you think should happen?

00:09:46.140 I worked in Mulroney's government.

00:09:48.380 Just so you know. 0.91

00:09:49.260 Far right fascist. 0.99

00:09:50.580 You are. 0.61

00:09:51.840 Actually, no.

00:09:52.660 I was considered far right.

00:09:53.940 Because as a young Conservative, yes, the young Conservatives were pushing for things

00:09:57.580 like tax cuts and, you know, locking up criminals.

00:10:02.520 We actually remember how to package of reforms we wanted to bring in that were really tougher.

00:10:07.160 Some of them echoing some of the things Polly have a saying today.

00:10:09.560 And we were called the fascists.

00:10:10.820 We were.

00:10:11.400 The party, I don't remember as a general rule.

00:10:14.060 The Westerners, you know, had a big beast with Mulroney for lots of reasons.

00:10:18.900 As of the Quebecers after a while. 0.51

00:10:20.540 But putting that aside, you know, what I was actually writing about, I haven't come

00:10:26.920 out and said that we need to return to that big tent party.

00:10:30.540 That's not my takeaway.

00:10:31.400 My takeaway is, can it still work?

00:10:34.040 Because this didn't work.

00:10:35.960 And I don't think the voter base is there for this experiment to work, what Polyev did.

00:10:39.980 I think he's in a dark place because he really thought he was going to refashion the party

00:10:44.500 into a party that would be of the working class, of the left behinds, of people who were not

00:10:51.740 getting a voice, the little people, like he said, you know, the people who the waitress

00:10:56.160 and the trucker and the tradesman and people who don't have access to power.

00:11:00.340 And I genuinely believe that he felt that, that he wanted to create a party that was

00:11:04.920 in that image to be a voice for these people.

00:11:07.900 Um, and it didn't work because the, the numbers aren't there, especially the fact they didn't

00:11:13.620 get any seats in Quebec.

00:11:14.680 Quebec was the reason the Liberals won.

00:11:16.560 Quebec didn't buy that argument from Polyev.

00:11:18.500 They didn't, they didn't, they didn't tweak to that.

00:11:21.280 They went.

00:11:22.200 I would argue that, I would argue that he didn't win because he didn't win in Ontario.

00:11:27.120 Yeah, he didn't win in Ontario because there weren't enough of those, of those seats that,

00:11:31.080 like I said, that could be flipped.

00:11:32.360 Well, there, there are, but you've got to be willing to talk to Doug Ford or people

00:11:37.800 around him.

00:11:39.340 But Doug, see, Doug Ford isn't that.

00:11:41.160 Doug Ford is not, doesn't, Doug Ford doesn't disparage people in suits.

00:11:45.600 This was the error, I think, is that, um, Polyev's slogan, boots, not suits.

00:11:50.480 It's not boots and suits.

00:11:51.840 It's boots, not suits.

00:11:53.440 And this told a lot of suits they weren't wanted on the voyage.

00:11:56.520 And I've talked to people in his writing too.

00:11:58.220 And I heard two things.

00:11:59.500 One was, yeah, freedom convoy and civil servants, and they didn't like how he handled the freedom

00:12:04.500 convoy.

00:12:04.960 But second, he wasn't there.

00:12:07.400 He wasn't there.

00:12:08.340 And he didn't put his boots on the ground, so to speak.

00:12:10.820 He wasn't in the ride.

00:12:11.600 He didn't show up.

00:12:13.140 But he went from being the guy that was at every event to being at no event.

00:12:17.760 Well, yes.

00:12:18.320 And there's also redistribution.

00:12:19.760 But the idea, the first piece though, is the boots, not suits, is that if you start disparaging

00:12:24.280 people because they work with a laptop, they're a civil servant or they're a business person

00:12:27.980 or whatever, and you say that they're not the ones who built Canada, because that's

00:12:30.520 literally what he said, is that the people who built Canada are those with, you know,

00:12:33.140 the hammers and the tools and things that you're driving a wedge right there.

00:12:40.580 And it can work if you have enough people on your end.

00:12:43.660 But he did it.

00:12:44.640 And he drove away those moderate voters.

00:12:47.080 He literally drove them away.

00:12:48.980 And they didn't vote for him.

00:12:50.040 They were pissed off.

00:12:51.420 So, you know, once they had no Trudeau in the picture, they could vote for Carney.

00:12:55.760 And that's what I don't think he understood.

00:12:58.120 As long as Trudeau was there, there was this illusion that moderate voters would, you know,

00:13:01.980 would come over.

00:13:02.680 You wouldn't have to pay any attention and they'd be there anyway.

00:13:04.860 Well, guess what?

00:13:05.560 They weren't.

00:13:06.980 Let's talk about the conservative infighting.

00:13:11.960 Meow.

00:13:13.180 It was the first column I wrote after the election because of these comments here from Jamil

00:13:22.000 Giovanni.

00:13:22.420 I do want to ask you, Mr. Giovanni, because you've just spoken to your supporters, a large

00:13:26.080 group that's here at the pub here in Bowmanville, North Oshawa.

00:13:29.840 And you said to them, among other things, that Doug Ford was a problem for you in this

00:13:34.500 campaign.

00:13:35.080 You said that he sabotaged the conservative campaign.

00:13:38.360 That's your words.

00:13:39.200 You said he was a hype man for the liberals.

00:13:41.580 Take me through how you see that.

00:13:44.300 Yeah.

00:13:44.600 Well, look, Doug Ford just went through an election.

00:13:47.120 I have differences of opinion with him.

00:13:48.800 I don't like how he's managed health care or education, but out of respect, we didn't

00:13:53.220 say anything.

00:13:53.840 Federal party, we didn't get in his way.

00:13:55.700 When it was our turn to run an election, he couldn't stay out of our business.

00:13:58.880 Always getting his criticisms and all his opinions out, distracting our campaign, trying

00:14:03.680 to make it about him, trying to position himself as some kind of political genius that we needed

00:14:08.180 to be taking cues from.

00:14:09.340 Was it him specifically?

00:14:10.640 Was it his campaign manager, Corey, tonight?

00:14:12.480 Do you see Doug Ford as a problem for the federal party in the outcome of this race?

00:14:17.600 I see Doug Ford as a problem for Ontario and for Canada.

00:14:21.260 I think he's not doing a great job in running this province, and now he's trying to exercise

00:14:25.220 his influence over other levels of government.

00:14:27.860 And it's not like this guy is doing anything particularly well.

00:14:30.420 So that was Jamil Giovanni settling scores on election night, talking to CBC of all places.

00:14:37.020 You know, conservatives don't do that, and he would probably excoriate other conservatives

00:14:42.220 for talking to CBC, but there's Jamil blasting Doug Ford.

00:14:47.520 You know, look, I get people being angry at what Ford and his campaign manager, Corey, tonight

00:14:53.360 did, but Jamil Giovanni has spent the last couple of years taking nonstop shots at the Ford

00:14:59.680 government.

00:15:00.120 He has been at war with Doug Ford for years, and the infighting, there is plenty of blame

00:15:07.620 to go around.

00:15:08.400 Should Ford have done what he did?

00:15:09.860 No, but people around Polyev, not Pierre, but the people around him spent two years coming

00:15:15.580 into Toronto, going to events with the same donors that Ford has that are also supporting

00:15:21.280 Pierre, and trash-talking Ford loudly and denouncing him, not taking on any staffers if they've

00:15:29.400 worked for the Ford government, not taking on candidates if they've had anything to do

00:15:33.000 with the Ford government. 1.00

00:15:34.480 This is idiotic. 1.00

00:15:37.120 Not even having a relationship with Tim Houston in Nova Scotia. 1.00

00:15:42.280 This was a bad idea from the start, but what do you do with the infighting now that it's

00:15:49.220 out in the open?

00:15:49.740 It looks like Giovanni wants to have a purity test for the conservatives.

00:15:53.860 That's subtraction, not addition, and that's not how you win in politics.

00:15:57.260 You win with addition.

00:15:57.980 I'll just start by saying that this, if you really know these people, which I think all

00:16:05.440 of us do, and kind of know how far back this goes, and all of the interpersonal pettiness

00:16:11.400 that's been going on, this is a month of public infighting that's been going on for like seven

00:16:18.360 years, and I think that, you know, it's one of those things.

00:16:23.440 When my kids are fighting, I don't try to figure out who's more right and who's more wrong.

00:16:27.280 I just say, stop it.

00:16:29.500 Stop it now or you're going to your rooms.

00:16:31.200 And I think that's where we're at with this, is that figuring out who's more right and who's

00:16:35.680 more wrong.

00:16:36.200 As a journalist, I miss that Jamil. 1.00

00:16:39.220 I know Jamil, and he does that, and it's very entertaining.

00:16:43.340 But if I were in the political party, I would not want people doing that.

00:16:47.120 And I think we have a bunch of people, whether it's Polly Ev, Doug Ford, Corey Tanike, Jamil

00:16:53.920 himself.

00:16:54.780 These are people who lack.

00:16:55.940 Yeah, Jenny.

00:16:56.860 There are people who lack a little bit of self-discipline when it comes to this stuff.

00:17:01.680 And I think that over the years in politics, most of these people learn, just keep your

00:17:08.060 mouth shut.

00:17:08.760 And like you said, Brian, like I've heard from the Polly Ev people a million times. 1.00

00:17:14.380 We're not going to be like Doug Ford once we get into power.

00:17:16.720 We're going to really do stuff.

00:17:17.860 We're not going to just be the fourth term of Kathleen Wynne. 0.99

00:17:20.860 We're going to actually do conservative things when we get in there.

00:17:23.720 And as much as they weren't saying that publicly, it was a refrain from inside.

00:17:28.340 And of course, that gets back to the Ford people.

00:17:30.620 And of course, that keeps the bad blood going.

00:17:32.880 And I think what all this comes down to is that they just need to learn to get along.

00:17:38.840 Like there was no reason to take a shot at Tim Houston, of all people.

00:17:41.500 And then all of a sudden, you have this relationship that's fractured that never needed to be.

00:17:46.920 And then you have two days of news stories that you would rather not be dealing with.

00:17:51.180 And you have five or six days of Doug Ford news stories you'd rather not deal with.

00:17:55.020 So I hope they've learned a lesson.

00:17:57.520 We've been doing some reporting on this.

00:18:00.060 MPs have been saying we need to work on our relationships.

00:18:02.940 And I think that's exactly what they mean.

00:18:06.240 Tasha, I'll ask you to use this as the jumping off point on this.

00:18:11.500 And by the end, Ford obviously didn't care because he did a big interview with Politico that was published the Sunday before the election, trash-talking them again.

00:18:21.860 Yeah, I read that.

00:18:24.300 And I think that it comes down a lot to personalities.

00:18:28.300 I think in the conservative camp, it's a management issue.

00:18:32.180 There are, you know, Jenny Byrne and people who work with her.

00:18:34.440 And they have this attitude of we govern by fear.

00:18:37.920 And that is how they rule.

00:18:39.520 And they roll.

00:18:40.180 And they, you know, they send people notes saying, you know, you'll never work again.

00:18:43.020 And this is common currency.

00:18:44.920 This has been happening for years.

00:18:46.320 This is how they run the shop. 0.63

00:18:48.440 So people put up with it as long as they were 25 points up in the polls internally because everyone wanted to be in that shop.

00:18:55.180 But then when things went south, the grumbling, I exploded, really did.

00:19:00.920 And I think that's where Corey Tadike went out on his limb, which I'm sure was sanctioned by Ford.

00:19:05.780 I don't think that was, you know, just him deciding to say these things and negative things about the party.

00:19:10.040 But internally, I've talked to lots of people who wanted to be candidates or were working for in ridings, raising money, you know, selling memberships with the idea that they might be eligible for being a candidate. 0.92

00:19:22.500 They were treated like garbage by the party.

00:19:24.440 They weren't even called. 1.00

00:19:26.160 The tax finance minister wanted to run.

00:19:29.540 Yeah.

00:19:29.920 Is it Gerard?

00:19:31.940 Sorry?

00:19:32.640 Is it Eric Gerard?

00:19:34.580 Is that the name?

00:19:36.240 Yes.

00:19:37.160 I think he was one of the people.

00:19:38.600 There were other people that, you know, there were other members of the Ford government, apparently, also, Ford cabinet ministers who wanted to run, had been rejected by the party.

00:19:47.340 I think that the Conservative Party, what I never understood about this campaign, one of the mysteries to me, was they didn't have star candidates.

00:19:53.800 They didn't make an effort to get star candidates, like people with really big names.

00:19:57.980 They had some people who were well-known, maybe in their community, for example, or in certain circles.

00:20:02.580 I mean, Billy Morin in Alberta, for example, who is quite a high-profile Indigenous leader.

00:20:07.060 But they didn't have people that the average person would know or that had served before in other governments, had experience.

00:20:16.280 Like Carlos Letao, who is the former finance minister in Quebec, that Carney poached, right, or attracted.

00:20:22.920 Those types of people.

00:20:24.240 And I think the reason is because they want to control everything.

00:20:26.400 And when you do that, you end up with a B team.

00:20:29.280 You don't have an A team.

00:20:30.260 And then you end up with, you know, Ford on his side, trash-talking them.

00:20:33.720 Well, it was just ugly.

00:20:36.100 And I don't think Ford doesn't have an agenda.

00:20:38.220 Lots of people say, oh, well, he wants the top job.

00:20:40.280 That's why he did this.

00:20:41.680 You know, until he goes and does French lessons in Jean-Claire, I won't believe that.

00:20:45.380 But I do think that perhaps he wanted Carney in the chair because he's thinking, if I'm Premier of Ontario, who's going to be better for my province?

00:20:53.280 Who's going to be easier to deal with?

00:20:54.840 Polly Eva's never even called me.

00:20:56.660 What do I want with that?

00:20:58.000 Why would I want him to be prime minister?

00:20:59.400 I want to get support for the auto industry.

00:21:01.400 I want to get subsidies for this, that, and the other for the feds.

00:21:03.760 I want to get, you know, things go south with Trump.

00:21:06.200 I want an ally.

00:21:07.340 That's Carney.

00:21:08.540 So, I mean, this is no mystery.

00:21:10.240 Like, I think that was the agenda, not a leadership issue for Ford.

00:21:13.100 I think really it was, you know what, I don't want Polly Eva to win because I'm going to have to deal with him for four years and that'll be a nightmare. 0.51

00:21:20.460 The, is there space for Polly Eva to turn around, if he stays on, to eat some humble pie and say, you know what, I'm going to go out to Etobicoke. 1.00

00:21:33.220 I'm going to hang out with Doug Ford.

00:21:34.640 I'm going to actually meet Tim Houston when I'm in Nova Scotia.

00:21:38.140 I'm going to reach out to people like Peter McKay and, and not only get his advice, but work with him in the next campaign.

00:21:48.840 Peter McKay was out there, but not in any official capacity from the party.

00:21:53.180 Peter was doing what Peter does because he wanted Central Nova to turn blue again.

00:21:58.300 Yeah, this is, I think this is the key question for me is that I spoke early on in the campaign.

00:22:04.940 I spoke to somebody who was near Ford and they said, look, it's, Pierre Polyev does not, he views relationships too lightly for a politician and he's not good at keeping them.

00:22:16.640 He's not good at cultivating them.

00:22:18.260 And I think that might just be his personality.

00:22:22.080 Like he's kind of a bookish guy.

00:22:23.720 He likes policy.

00:22:25.220 He's likes to be in his own world.

00:22:27.340 And even someone like that, when they try to be, you know, the Brian Mulroney type, it doesn't quite work.

00:22:33.260 It's really hard.

00:22:33.940 I think I'm kind of like that too.

00:22:35.220 I can't pretend to be something I'm not.

00:22:36.840 And Pierre Polyev probably can't either.

00:22:38.740 So it really just depends how much he can do himself to do this, to reach out to people and establish these connections because politics is so much easier when you're not making enemies on your own team.

00:22:52.880 Well, you know, five, about five different ridings in Brampton could have flipped from liberal to conservative easily with one phone call to Patrick Brown.

00:23:05.480 And that never happened.

00:23:07.040 And Patrick Brown was willing to put his machinery behind them.

00:23:12.200 They trashed Patrick Brown.

00:23:14.020 In the leadership, he sabotaged Patrick Brown.

00:23:16.240 They can't get a personality transplant.

00:23:18.300 This is a problem.

00:23:19.120 I agree with Stuart.

00:23:19.960 But Doug Ford and Patrick Brown fought like cats and dogs until Ford was premier and Brown was mayor.

00:23:27.240 And now they get along.

00:23:28.500 But Doug Ford is not Pierre Polyev.

00:23:30.200 To Stuart's point, Doug Ford is a natural born politician.

00:23:33.880 He is a guy who, you know, he could dump on someone and then he'll make up with them.

00:23:39.620 He could say, I'm sorry for this.

00:23:40.840 I'm sorry for that.

00:23:42.060 He is not an ideologue.

00:23:43.980 He is much more mutable and affable.

00:23:46.700 You know, he is.

00:23:47.480 He's the guy who picks up his cell phone when you call.

00:23:50.920 Polyev doesn't do that.

00:23:52.380 Polyev is not like that.

00:23:53.380 And, you know, Stephen Harper wasn't either.

00:23:55.440 Stephen Harper was also more introverted bookish.

00:23:57.960 But Stephen Harper wasn't abrasive the way Polyev is. 0.97

00:24:02.180 And Polyev made it his shtick to be abrasive.

00:24:03.920 It was his thing.

00:24:04.660 He was the leader of the opposition. 0.65

00:24:05.700 He was the attack dog.

00:24:06.940 Harper wasn't like that. 1.00

00:24:08.960 You know, some people didn't like him by the end.

00:24:10.800 Of course, he was unpopular.

00:24:11.740 He'd been in office for nine years.

00:24:13.600 But he wasn't like that.

00:24:15.540 And, you know, I know that a lot of fuss is being made right now about comments that Bob Fyfe made on the National where he said people went to the doors.

00:24:22.340 And they said that in Pierre's writing, and they said to the candidate, well, they said to people who are going on behalf of Pierre, I'd love to vote.

00:24:32.780 I agree with what your party's doing.

00:24:34.680 I'm not going to vote for your leader because he's a, I'm not going to say it.

00:24:37.580 Right? 1.00

00:24:38.300 He's a dick. 1.00

00:24:39.180 He's a dick. 1.00

00:24:39.960 Okay. 1.00

00:24:40.360 Well, podcasts aren't censored, I guess.

00:24:42.420 Fine. 1.00

00:24:42.680 He's a dick. 1.00

00:24:43.320 And that's what that, and he's getting so much grief for saying that on air. 1.00

00:24:48.040 But you know what?

00:24:48.720 I do believe that was said.

00:24:49.980 I have heard that from other people in the writing who said, go door to door, and they just don't like him.

00:24:55.280 And I think that's not, again, it is because they don't feel that he likes them enough to make that effort that Stuart's talking about, that personality piece, to cultivate a relationship.

00:25:07.380 And relationships in politics are the glue.

00:25:10.520 Brian already knew that.

00:25:11.400 He had a list of people.

00:25:12.180 He would call every day someone.

00:25:14.140 How are you?

00:25:14.900 How are you?

00:25:15.880 You know, how's the wife? 1.00

00:25:16.680 He tells us, no, but you know, like, and he would, people would be sick, he would call them, he would send, he sent me flowers when I gave birth to my daughter.

00:25:23.500 Okay?

00:25:23.740 I hadn't spoken to him in a while.

00:25:25.720 Like, it had been a while.

00:25:26.760 He sent flowers to the hospital when I had my daughter.

00:25:30.260 Like, how nice is that?

00:25:31.420 The nurse didn't know who he was.

00:25:32.460 It was funny.

00:25:33.280 Because, you know, it's like, oh, they're from Brian Mulroney.

00:25:35.340 And she's like, who?

00:25:36.220 She was like, young.

00:25:37.180 He had no clue.

00:25:38.260 I was like, oh, that's so touching.

00:25:39.360 Yeah, so that's the kind of guy he was.

00:25:41.900 I would see Pierre sending flowers to people.

00:25:43.620 I just don't see it.

00:25:45.620 Yeah, I've heard from several people that the first phone call they get after a loved one passes is from Doug Ford.

00:25:51.560 There you go.

00:25:53.020 Including people that he's at odds with politically.

00:25:55.180 I mean, he now has a whole bunch of his former political opponents working with him as mayors of major cities in Ontario.

00:26:06.680 But that's because he makes the effort, too, Brian.

00:26:09.400 He picks up the phone.

00:26:10.340 He doesn't wait.

00:26:11.320 He doesn't.

00:26:11.920 He wants relationships because, and not just because they're transactional, but because I think genuinely he's that kind of a guy.

00:26:17.720 He's the good old boy.

00:26:18.840 He's a guy who likes to be on the.

00:26:20.860 He likes to not fight with people because he believes you get more done.

00:26:25.180 And he's just that way.

00:26:26.520 So it's a natural thing for him.

00:26:30.000 What about the NDP and the bloc?

00:26:31.180 They both disappeared to a degree in this election.

00:26:34.540 Blanchet, most likely not facing any leadership struggles.

00:26:40.140 He'll continue to bounce along.

00:26:42.080 But Jagmeet Singh, well, he did the smart thing and resigned.

00:26:45.700 We're going to have Avi Lewis step forward trying to take over leadership, even though he lost to Hedy Frye.

00:26:52.040 I think that is maybe a disqualifying position in my books. 0.98

00:26:57.620 But the NDP does love losers. 0.94

00:26:58.920 So Avi Lewis will step forward. 0.98

00:27:02.960 Will Wob Canoe?

00:27:05.980 Thoughts?

00:27:06.660 Got it.

00:27:07.180 Oh, wow.

00:27:07.760 Okay.

00:27:08.300 I'll let Stuart go first, but I know Avi Lewis, so I will be commenting after that.

00:27:12.040 I just can't imagine going from running an entire province to being the leader of a caucus of seven.

00:27:21.080 It just seems like that is a huge demotion.

00:27:24.060 And if you're Wob Canoe, you must be thinking, why would I do that to myself?

00:27:27.700 So I wouldn't do it if I were him.

00:27:29.340 I think he'd be crazy to do it.

00:27:30.760 I think Rachel Notley would be crazy to do it also. 1.00

00:27:33.320 So they might be scraping the bottom of the barrel here.

00:27:36.080 I think you're right on Wob.

00:27:38.380 And he is getting a lot of compliments, a lot of attention for being a stable, moderate, prairie New Democrat.

00:27:48.700 And maybe that's a model for whoever does win to follow.

00:27:53.420 Avi Lewis, I don't know, Natasha, you do.

00:27:55.860 I'm told he's one of the nicest guys.

00:27:58.620 He's a sweetheart.

00:27:59.380 I worked with him for four years, up to three years at CBC, producing his show.

00:28:05.400 He had a show.

00:28:06.600 I was one of the producers on it.

00:28:08.320 And he was lovely to work for, smart, very nice guy, and very ideological, very committed, from a base of knowledge.

00:28:17.240 He wasn't just spouting stuff off.

00:28:18.940 He had read, and his wife, Naomi Klein, is also, of course, extremely well-published, well-read.

00:28:23.520 They come from a place of conviction on their ideas, which are hardcore socialists.

00:28:30.120 Hardcore socialists.

00:28:31.600 And so they would be on the really hard leading ed progressive.

00:28:35.640 I don't think, so here's the thing.

00:28:37.500 The NDP's got to make a choice.

00:28:39.480 Do we go hardcore progressive, or do we get back a labor vote we lost, in large part, to the conservatives?

00:28:44.080 And as long as Polyev is leader of the conservatives, they are not going to get the progressive vote back.

00:28:49.360 Even if they, like, you know, dance in the streets, they are not, because it's going to stay with Carney, because they don't want conservatives to have any shot at anything.

00:28:56.300 So the trick is, if Polyev does leave, if the conservatives, for any reason, become more moderate or whatnot, then a progressive NDP could start prying people away from the liberals again.

00:29:08.960 But in the meantime, that's not going to work.

00:29:10.740 And I don't think that there's enough voters of the hardcore progressives, even in cities, for them to come back in that.

00:29:18.640 So I wish Avi Luck is a great guy, but I don't know if he's the thing that the party would need right now.

00:29:23.200 Leap manifesto. Yay.

00:29:24.680 Yeah, I know, right? Wab Kanu would never write the Leap manifesto, never. But Wab should stay in Manitoba, too. He's, yeah, I agree with Stuart on that. 0.82

00:29:32.160 Yeah, Brian, can I just point out that you can see the peril facing the NDP in the fact that the conservatives poached 17 seats from the liberals, but they also poached 10 seats from the NDP.

00:29:45.380 So the NDP is losing it on both sides of their voter coalition.

00:29:48.840 And it's not obvious, as Tasha says, that those progressive votes will come back to them.

00:29:53.720 So it's pretty dire.

00:29:55.160 All right, let's take a quick break. When we come back, where does Canada go from here?

00:29:59.920 Carney and Trump getting along like, well, not cats and dogs, dogs and dogs, I guess. Back in moments.

00:30:06.940 This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?, where we unpack the biggest, weirdest and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew and tell you what really happened.

00:30:18.800 Stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favorite episodes.

00:30:23.280 If you don't want to stick around, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What? everywhere you get podcasts.

00:30:29.140 Donald Trump, of course, was a central character in our election.

00:30:33.880 Just after the results were in, he held a cabinet meeting and reacted to what unfolded north of the border.

00:30:39.200 Are you interested in rebuilding relations with Canada? And if so, how?

00:30:44.740 No, well, I think we're going to have a great relationship.

00:30:47.300 He called me up yesterday. He said, let's make a deal.

00:30:49.720 He was running for office. They both hated Trump.

00:30:54.020 And it was the one that hated Trump, I think the least of that one.

00:30:57.360 I actually think the conservative hated me much more than the so-called liberal.

00:31:03.240 He's a pretty liberal guy.

00:31:04.440 But no, I spoke to him yesterday. He couldn't have been nicer.

00:31:07.760 And I congratulated him.

00:31:09.260 You know, it was a very mixed signal because it's almost even, which makes it very complicated for the country.

00:31:16.880 It's a pretty tight race.

00:31:18.620 But he's a very nice gentleman.

00:31:20.740 And he's going to come to the White House very shortly.

00:31:24.260 So there you have it. He said, they both hated Trump and the one who hated Trump less won.

00:31:29.700 I'm not sure that's accurate.

00:31:31.720 But he really seems bothered that Polyev wouldn't say nice things about him.

00:31:35.360 But he seems genuinely happy with Carney.

00:31:39.720 Sasha, is this going to be a good relationship, a bad relationship?

00:31:43.740 You know, I'm sure you saw the reporting that John Iveson had that Carney had said on his first call with him, you're a transformative president that I want to work with.

00:31:53.600 He is a transformative president and I have to work with him.

00:31:57.320 So there you go.

00:31:58.000 I don't think he was lying there.

00:31:59.120 You know, I have no idea because none of us can predict what Trump will say tomorrow.

00:32:04.380 So, you know, Carney will be a city.

00:32:07.700 I'm looking forward to watching that two shot in the White House, you know, Carney and Trump.

00:32:12.040 And then on the other side, the whole Vance and the rest of them sitting there on the sofa looking like this and see how that goes down.

00:32:19.140 Because, you know, it can go great or it can go totally sideways like Zelensky.

00:32:22.760 I don't think he'll be Zelensky by any stretch.

00:32:24.540 But I think that, you know, Carney is used to dealing with people in those circles.

00:32:30.900 He's done that for most of his career, people who are leaders of countries and high levels.

00:32:35.500 And so he's he's not going to be uncomfortable in the chair, in the role.

00:32:40.880 But how he'll be treated by Trump today, tomorrow could change.

00:32:44.020 You never know.

00:32:45.420 So I'm not going to even predict this.

00:32:47.280 I think Macron and Starmer have shown him how to do it and come out unscathed.

00:32:51.180 Well, this is the thing.

00:32:51.580 It's not how you do it, though.

00:32:52.900 It's what's in Trump's head from five minutes before.

00:32:56.640 And and so that's why I don't want to make any predictions.

00:32:59.600 I think I think Carney will give it his absolute best shot.

00:33:02.040 I think he's very well equipped to deal with Trump, like you said, because he has other friends who've dealt and he knows.

00:33:07.780 And he's got the skinny on on how that went.

00:33:10.840 And so he's probably the best person to do it.

00:33:13.940 It's a question of just the wild card is Trump.

00:33:16.240 And who knows?

00:33:18.600 Who knows?

00:33:19.000 Stuart, are you expecting a good meeting or maybe a WWE Smackdown in the Oval?

00:33:25.620 Yeah, well, as a journalist, you know what I'm hoping for.

00:33:28.220 But Trump is a funny guy, though, because he is quite mercurial.

00:33:33.460 And I have noticed that every now and then he just takes a real shine to someone.

00:33:37.540 And it's hard to it's not always rational.

00:33:39.780 It's not ideological because it's not always left, right kind of stuff.

00:33:42.980 And I wonder if maybe that's what's happened with Carney for whatever reason.

00:33:48.160 And I think with Trudeau, I think we are slowly starting to realize that he just hated Trudeau and that a lot of this comes down to some pretty colossal mistakes by Trudeau, where he made some comments to Trump that I think really hurt us.

00:34:01.220 And I think for Carney, he has to really make this be the thing he does well.

00:34:07.580 I think that's probably everything is riding on that.

00:34:10.100 So I think they'll throw whatever they have at it.

00:34:12.840 And like Tasha says, you just have to sort of toss the coin and hope that Trump's mood is good that day.

00:34:19.020 Let's play another clip.

00:34:20.260 This is from a Fox News interview.

00:34:22.220 Brett Baer interviewing Jameson Greer.

00:34:25.180 Now, if you're not well-versed in who is who in Trump world, Jameson Greer is the U.S. trade representative, and he is the one negotiating all these new trade deals.

00:34:35.680 And so he's in the middle of big negotiations with South Korea right now, with the United Kingdom, and hopefully soon, Canada.

00:34:43.420 So here's Greer saying good things about Carney, taking a shot at Trudeau, and then the interesting part at the end is on manufacturing.

00:34:51.680 He essentially ran on being anti-Trump and talked tough about what they're going to do, retaliatory.

00:35:01.140 How does that go with Canada?

00:35:03.240 Well, I think you heard today the president in the cabinet meeting talked about his interactions with the new prime minister.

00:35:08.840 And he said they've been positive.

00:35:10.280 They had a call a few weeks ago as well, and they were positive.

00:35:13.260 I think the new prime minister is a serious person.

00:35:15.580 It's not the same experience we have with the old Canadian prime minister.

00:35:18.220 And the president very much wants to have a healthy relationship in North America.

00:35:23.660 We should have more manufacturing in North America.

00:35:26.280 We need to have it in our hemisphere.

00:35:28.180 And we'll see how the relationship goes.

00:35:30.140 It's really at the leader's level with the president and the prime minister, but we stand ready to engage it.

00:35:34.120 So you had just mentioned, Stuart, that, look, Trump didn't like Trudeau.

00:35:40.680 I don't think anyone in the administration did.

00:35:43.400 You heard the comment there.

00:35:44.840 What you didn't see was some kind of laughing, a smirking, as he said the former Canadian prime minister wasn't serious.

00:35:51.160 So they do view Carney as a serious guy.

00:35:54.240 What I'm hopeful for there is that Greer was saying we need manufacturing in North America.

00:36:00.120 I'm hoping that, you know, the serious guys like him are getting the message from business leaders and other elected officials, including Republicans, that, yeah, we want more manufacturing here, but we don't need to take it from Canada.

00:36:16.080 We can't replace those auto factories up north.

00:36:18.740 We can't replace the other factories.

00:36:20.440 We don't have the manpower to do it.

00:36:22.360 We can't even, you know, we couldn't have people fill all those jobs if we wanted to.

00:36:27.100 I'm hoping that that message is getting through when you hear comments like that from Greer.

00:36:31.920 Yeah, I will say that when I heard the phrase North America, it filled me with like a wave of relief because that's what we haven't heard.

00:36:40.320 And I think Trump has just sort of naturally seen the world as zero sum.

00:36:45.280 I think that's just the way his brain works.

00:36:46.980 So his natural instinct is that if something goes well in Canada, it must be taking something away from us.

00:36:53.780 And global trade doesn't really work that way.

00:36:56.260 And I think maybe the tariffs, just the reaction to the tariffs economically and politically maybe has taught him that, you know, this can be good for everyone.

00:37:07.140 If we have an automotive industry in North America, we can all benefit from that.

00:37:11.700 So I think those guys realize it.

00:37:14.100 And I think that that is sort of slowly taking shape.

00:37:17.820 You've seen the tariff stuff kind of ebb away.

00:37:19.900 There's exemptions coming.

00:37:21.320 And without making any Trump predictions, I think is a bad idea.

00:37:24.640 I think hopefully we're getting into a better place here with that.

00:37:28.120 Well, unfortunately, some of the layoffs have already happened.

00:37:30.980 Friday morning, a thousand layoffs at Oshawa's GM plant.

00:37:37.140 You know, the whole shift gone there.

00:37:38.720 We have to hope for that to come back.

00:37:40.140 But, you know, one thing that Doug Ford heard when he was in Washington, Tasha, was that they wanted to start negotiating with Canada as soon as possible.

00:37:48.920 So what does Carney do here?

00:37:50.620 Does he go in and say, yeah, let's let's make a deal.

00:37:53.520 Let's get serious on negotiations the way Starmer has for the UK?

00:37:57.120 The sooner we can get negotiations going, the better.

00:38:00.760 Absolutely.

00:38:01.460 Because that will limit the damage that tariffs could do to our economy and that also uncertainty will do.

00:38:07.660 See, this is this is the thing.

00:38:09.020 I mean, you know, you saw as a reaction to the potential of tariffs, retailers buying of stock, you know, a flurry of economic activity back in February.

00:38:19.280 People just terrified and like, oh, my God, in March, too.

00:38:22.440 But that's just, you know, so it's distorted markets.

00:38:25.820 It's distorted supply chains put lots of pressure on them.

00:38:29.620 It's created uncertainty for consumers as to whether they should buy and not buy.

00:38:33.920 What's this going to cost?

00:38:35.440 Like, it's just uncertainty is bad for business.

00:38:37.300 It's bad for everybody.

00:38:38.940 And those distortions, you know, they if they go on too long or if there are more that come, it's also bad.

00:38:45.260 So let's, you know, let's all get along, as we said earlier, right?

00:38:49.180 Let's stop, find a way forward.

00:38:51.520 And I think, yes, I so I think negotiations sooner rather than later.

00:38:56.880 And, you know, he's got to put together Carney's, Carney, I mean, we'll hear, you know, he's going to have a press conference on Friday.

00:39:03.380 He's going to say something about, you know, his team.

00:39:07.500 He has to put together a team of people.

00:39:10.080 There's talk that there will be, you know, the new ambassador to the United States.

00:39:14.000 There's some talk that could be Jean Charest.

00:39:15.880 I've heard that.

00:39:17.660 So, you know, I will see.

00:39:20.960 But the point is, he's going to probably put some people in there who have some really heavy experience with dealing with these kinds of issues.

00:39:29.120 And so he has to do that first, get the team together.

00:39:31.000 But then I say full steam ahead, like, go and start trying to get a deal because that's for everybody.

00:39:36.560 I think I haven't heard Jean Charest for ambassador, but that would be interesting.

00:39:42.220 I think that that post in Washington, we have to stop putting career diplomats there.

00:39:48.260 Everybody I talk to says wonderful things about Ambassador Hellman, but she could not get meetings for people in February.

00:39:56.840 I'm not sure if she decided she didn't want to get meetings for people, but premiers asking for meetings with elected officials and she couldn't deliver. 0.99

00:40:05.920 That's why they all hired lobby firms to get them things.

00:40:09.780 The person in Washington has to be a political person.

00:40:13.660 They have to know the insides of how politics operate, not from a diplomat point of view.

00:40:19.520 So whoever goes there, yeah, I'm all in favor of a retired politician, a former premier.

00:40:26.080 I think that is key.

00:40:29.040 Internally, we've got, you know, fractures, though.

00:40:34.800 And now it's in Western Canada instead of Quebec.

00:40:39.260 Carney, during the campaign, did not offer an olive branch to Alberta.

00:40:43.220 And perhaps if he had, we would be talking about five, six, seven seats in Alberta instead of two.

00:40:48.500 There was a lot of hope among the liberals that they would be able to break through, especially with the addition of the three new seats, the redistribution of the ridings.

00:40:58.280 How does he broach this very delicate situation with increased talk of separation?

00:41:09.100 I don't think most Albertans want separation, but they do feel, even ones that want nothing to do with that, do feel like their province, and you hear the same in Saskatchewan, is not treated with respect.

00:41:20.280 I remember when Kenny came to power in 2019, and I spoke to someone in his office, and they said they were just flabbergasted by the separatist sentiment that was going on.

00:41:33.780 They just hadn't, they didn't realize how bad it was until they got in there and had, you know, the internal polls on that.

00:41:39.860 And, you know, as much as Danielle Smith, like people in central Canada are criticizing her for some of the stuff she said and did during the election campaign, a politician, a premier has to kind of reflect that, or at least try to absorb the sentiment in the province.

00:41:58.620 Because if you let it fester, it could get even worse. And I think that Carney has a responsibility here to help Danielle Smith out with that.

00:42:06.940 They don't have to openly get along, but Carney has to do something.

00:42:11.920 And I think the problem in the last decade is that Trudeau saw too much advantage in keeping this rift open.

00:42:19.700 And that is an electoral wedge, and I think it was good for the Liberals.

00:42:24.380 But at some point, Canadian interests have to come first.

00:42:28.500 Like, you just have to say, even if this drives down our voter efficiency or gives us a 3% less chance of a majority next time, we still have to do the right thing.

00:42:37.500 And I think Carney, I have a little bit of hope that he is from Edmonton and will understand that this is a serious problem.

00:42:44.540 And we'll try to build some bridges.

00:42:47.300 He's talked about building in the campaign.

00:42:49.720 So I'm willing to see what happens.

00:42:52.860 I mean, we have to hope that he does the right thing, because it's for the good of the country.

00:42:58.480 But Tasha, an awful lot of the commentariat in Central Canada is absolutely dismissive, if not outright antagonistic, to this very idea that there's any need to do anything regarding Alberta.

00:43:11.040 And these separatists should just shut up.

00:43:14.020 And why are you doing this? 0.89

00:43:15.620 I don't really see that.

00:43:16.860 I don't.

00:43:17.220 I see some people saying that, but I think most people realize that, as a Quebecer, I will say, having lived through national unity crisis on the east side, it is not pleasant.

00:43:28.360 It is not constructive.

00:43:30.420 It tears people and families apart.

00:43:32.580 It also wrecks business, house values.

00:43:34.540 Like, there's a whole bunch of things that go into separate ascendment people don't think about.

00:43:37.380 But when you live through that, I live through two referenda, and it's like the second one where I was quite active, it was awful, quite frankly, the anxiety.

00:43:45.240 So, no, that sort of stuff should be avoided, frankly.

00:43:47.720 And I think that a lot of people in the east see that and know that from experience, that that is not the way to go.

00:43:53.080 And I think Carney would know that, too, just in general, having seen phenomena also around the world.

00:43:58.440 I mean, look at Brexit, for example, the referendum there.

00:44:00.600 He was, you know, quite vocal.

00:44:02.620 It was a bad idea, and he was proven right. 0.65

00:44:04.940 I mean, at the end of the day, avoiding a referendum is much better.

00:44:08.520 So, you have to, to avoid a referendum, you have to stamp down or tamp down the sentiment.

00:44:12.700 You have to do something.

00:44:13.320 And I think he will do something.

00:44:14.960 I think it's going to revolve around energy.

00:44:17.100 I've heard positive noises from liberals that that is a very big priority for him.

00:44:21.620 And the issue will be convincing Quebec, you know, which I think he will have a chance of doing as well.

00:44:27.840 Legault is very, very, seems very happy with Carney as well.

00:44:30.580 And Legault is desperate to, you know, keep himself in power because things are going really sideways for his party.

00:44:35.580 So, I think that he will, and if the liberal government is elected in Quebec, or the liberal party revives there, as they have a provincial election for leader coming up in June, you know, that's also potential allyship.

00:44:48.580 Again, there's, you know, five degrees of separation.

00:44:51.100 Josh Ray was a provincial liberal.

00:44:52.620 They're not the same party as the federal liberals, but they get along.

00:44:55.680 I think he will get stuff done.

00:44:57.240 The challenge is having the time to do it.

00:44:59.140 So, he's in a minority, which is why I honestly think the best thing for him would be to just stack it and create a majority by bringing people in.

00:45:05.580 So, he's going to have to deal with the political bullshit of having to stay in power, curry favor here and there.

00:45:12.440 He would have four years to get stuff done. 0.91

00:45:13.940 Because the stuff that you need to get done will take four years to do.

00:45:16.700 Building infrastructure, building an LNG pipeline, all that stuff takes time.

00:45:20.380 Interesting you mentioned about Legault being more open.

00:45:26.820 Danielle Smith was in Montreal having meetings a couple of weeks ago trying to convince Legault to, for his own political benefit, to build Quebec's energy sector. 0.96

00:45:40.880 To tap into their natural gas reserves.

00:45:44.420 And it was, you know, instead of importing from the U.S., this would be energy independence for Quebec.

00:45:52.420 And he's apparently looking at the idea.

00:45:55.100 So, that could be an interesting allyship.

00:45:57.400 Does he have to go as far as approving a pipeline?

00:46:02.160 Is it getting rid of the tanker ban on the West Coast or C-69?

00:46:08.460 Pipeline.

00:46:09.260 Pipeline.

00:46:09.720 C-69 is part of that.

00:46:10.820 Because I don't know how you get the approvals if you're still stuck with it.

00:46:13.180 But a pipeline.

00:46:13.940 I 100% believe he has to do that.

00:46:16.020 That would be the biggest statement.

00:46:17.460 It would also create a lot of jobs.

00:46:19.340 It would be a sign to Alberta that its resources are taken seriously by the rest of the country.

00:46:24.480 And that it's a priority.

00:46:26.520 So, and it would also, it would put people to work.

00:46:29.240 It would be an economic activity.

00:46:31.040 Yes, there'd be government money floating around in it.

00:46:32.980 But it would still be an economic activity project, which would be good for the country.

00:46:36.280 So, I vote Pipeline 100%.

00:46:38.380 It would be good for steel mills, whether in Ontario or in Edmonton or Regina.

00:46:45.640 That would be good.

00:46:47.200 Yeah.

00:46:47.500 Just to attach this point, too.

00:46:49.040 Like, what Carney said during the campaign implies not to repeal C-69, but to redo it.

00:46:56.160 And their argument is that if we just repeal it, all of a sudden you're locked up in court

00:47:00.920 whenever you try to approve something.

00:47:02.480 So, the timeline is tough because you would have to redo this whole legislation, do consultations.

00:47:08.240 Then you would have to find a project that you want to go.

00:47:10.460 And then you get to Carney's idea of the one review for a project.

00:47:14.200 Doing that in two years seems improbable to me, and that's going to be a tough sell if it

00:47:20.280 is a true minority parliament.

00:47:22.520 Well, does it stay a minority, or do they poach people, as Tasha is suggesting, to make

00:47:27.600 it a majority?

00:47:28.140 I am a veteran of Alberta politics, where the Wild Rose floor cross destroyed everyone's

00:47:35.080 career who was involved.

00:47:37.640 And I...

00:47:39.300 Not Danielle Smith's.

00:47:40.640 Yeah, well, it was destroyed for a while.

00:47:42.380 To get their careers ruined.

00:47:43.820 No, no.

00:47:44.260 Federally, I agree with you, Stuart.

00:47:45.420 But federally, there's ample example of floor crossers who did just fine. 1.00

00:47:50.120 And I think in this case, it would be a small herd of floor crossers. 1.00

00:47:54.320 It's not just one individual.

00:47:55.180 He'd have to get a group, and he'd have to pitch it on the sense of, this is a unity

00:47:58.280 cabinet, a unity government.

00:48:00.240 Even not have them, like, Elizabeth May has already volunteered.

00:48:03.400 And so I'll be in your cabinet, but I'll still be...

00:48:05.760 I'll still represent my party, because you can.

00:48:09.240 Then she'd have to... 0.99

00:48:10.080 See, that's actually smart, because then she'd have to vote with the government, because 0.53

00:48:13.480 she's in cabinet, right?

00:48:15.040 But she'd still be... 0.99

00:48:16.140 She'd still be agreeing.

00:48:17.040 You could do that.

00:48:17.560 You could put three NDP, or even conservatives, in the cabinet.

00:48:22.080 And they'd have to vote with the government.

00:48:23.900 And so you'd have your majority.

00:48:25.680 Boom.

00:48:26.240 Done.

00:48:27.040 Elizabeth May and the Green Party, they are wholly owned subsidiaries of the Liberal Party

00:48:31.140 already.

00:48:31.660 So just count her as a Liberal.

00:48:34.780 I said she volunteered.

00:48:36.240 You know, she actually did.

00:48:38.440 Yeah.

00:48:40.380 Elizabeth May should just retire. 1.00

00:48:43.100 Can't look too needy in these situations.

00:48:44.740 She won her seat, Brian.

00:48:46.040 She won her seat.

00:48:47.020 Pierre did not win his seat.

00:48:48.100 She won her seat.

00:48:48.440 Yeah, this is true.

00:48:49.720 This is true.

00:48:50.560 And look, I've heard all the pushback from the federal conservatives.

00:48:55.940 I'm sure you saw the Andrew Scheer interview that he did.

00:48:58.900 We won more votes than Doug Ford in Ontario.

00:49:02.700 Yeah, but you won fewer seats.

00:49:04.720 Like, you've got to count the seats, not the votes.

00:49:07.600 That's the important part that they missed.

00:49:09.980 Can I raise one really quick thing?

00:49:11.440 Sure.

00:49:11.640 Their vote count and their seat count are almost the same.

00:49:14.700 They actually, proportional representation, they actually got about 41% of the vote and

00:49:20.280 roughly 41% of the seats.

00:49:21.580 It's very interesting.

00:49:22.740 It's the Liberals who benefited.

00:49:24.400 They've got 49% of the seats with 43.

00:49:26.960 And 43, yes.

00:49:27.460 There was more efficient.

00:49:28.600 Yeah.

00:49:29.140 Yeah.

00:49:30.920 Is there a chance of this being a short-lived parliament?

00:49:33.920 You know, we always talk about minority parliaments last six to 18 months. 0.78

00:49:38.520 I think the last 20 years has blown that talking point out of the water, but it still gets

00:49:42.500 dragged out.

00:49:44.500 You know, I've covered the Martin, the Two Harper, and this is what, my sixth minority

00:49:50.800 government in the last bunch of years.

00:49:53.560 I think it's a mugs game to try and figure out how long it lasts, Stuart.

00:49:57.320 Yeah, I agree.

00:49:58.020 And Blanchet has already said he's certainly not going to bring them down in the next year.

00:50:02.340 And usually when you say that, it doesn't mean you're going to do it in 13 months.

00:50:05.700 It means that these parties need time.

00:50:08.200 And the state of the NDP, if you thought it was bad last fall when they wouldn't bring

00:50:12.560 down the government, it's a lot worse now.

00:50:14.560 So they're going to have to get an interim leader, and then they're going to have to

00:50:18.340 figure out their leadership race, which I think will probably go on a little while.

00:50:22.300 And then they're going to have to give that leader some time to get their feet under

00:50:25.620 them.

00:50:25.960 So the NDP is in no position to bring down the government, I would say, within the next

00:50:29.960 two years and maybe even longer.

00:50:32.340 When Aaron O'Toole lost, I had people calling me the morning after saying he's got to go.

00:50:39.600 Do you remember Burt Chen from the Conservative National Council?

00:50:45.460 I think I was the first person he called.

00:50:47.380 I'd never met the man or talked to him.

00:50:49.160 And he's like, this is why Aaron O'Toole has to go.

00:50:51.660 What?

00:50:52.580 I haven't heard that with Polly Ev yet.

00:50:54.620 There's some speculation about Tim Houston wanting to go.

00:51:00.440 I've had some people call me and say, Piara has to go.

00:51:03.940 But, you know, they're not in decision-making positions, but there is a sentiment.

00:51:07.920 Some people say that he has to go.

00:51:10.100 Tim Houston, you know, that video was very interesting, the timing of it.

00:51:14.920 But I don't, you know, I haven't seen a draft Tim Houston movement here in Ontario.

00:51:21.920 Maybe there is one that I'm just not in part of a circle.

00:51:24.200 But, you know, there's no shortage of pretenders.

00:51:26.240 People are saying Jason Kenney.

00:51:27.380 Jason Kenney put out a lot of big posts on X on the last day and people are like, oh,

00:51:31.380 he's running.

00:51:32.220 For what?

00:51:32.820 The job's not open.

00:51:34.560 But I think that conversation is happening.

00:51:36.800 Look, there'll be a vote next Tuesday at caucus as to whether they do a full-on review.

00:51:42.900 He has to have a review at a convention.

00:51:46.060 He had, it's like they all do, right?

00:51:48.080 But they're going to do a caucus, a decision whether the caucus holds a vote.

00:51:50.940 They have like 20%, I think, of signatures of the caucus to mandate a vote like they did

00:51:57.380 with Aaron.

00:51:57.880 They kicked him out.

00:51:59.380 Yeah, it'll be a listening exercise on Tuesday, I think, for MPs.

00:52:02.880 They want to know what he has to say.

00:52:04.560 And I think most of the people that I've spoken to are pretty receptive to the arguments

00:52:09.880 about, you know, we gained two dozen seats and we have this new voter coalition.

00:52:14.180 Our voters are younger.

00:52:15.220 We have, you know, the South Asians came to us and big waves. 1.00

00:52:18.580 So like immigrant voters. 0.96

00:52:19.640 So this is a growing coalition that they see a future for.

00:52:23.920 And I think a lot of MPs are already leaning that way.

00:52:27.040 And they just need Polyev to get up in front of them and say, look, my fault.

00:52:31.620 Here's how we're going to fix this.

00:52:32.620 And I think if he does that, it's probably fine.

00:52:36.120 And then he'll have however long this minority or majority, if they listen to Tasha, lasts.

00:52:43.140 Then he has to find a seat.

00:52:44.380 He's got a big year out of him.

00:52:46.560 All right.

00:52:47.040 We'll leave it on that.

00:52:47.960 And we'll see what happens after this week.

00:52:49.520 Do make sure that you're subscribed and reading the Political Hack newsletter produced by these

00:52:53.920 fine two folks.

00:52:55.180 And make sure that you're hitting the subscribe button for full comment.

00:52:58.440 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:53:00.320 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.

00:53:02.620 Theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:53:04.160 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:53:06.680 Subscribe on Apple, on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

00:53:10.580 Leave us a review.

00:53:11.720 Thanks for listening.

00:53:13.020 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:53:19.920 Here's that clip from Canada Did What?

00:53:22.540 I promised you.

00:53:26.500 Two years later, he was still opposition leader.

00:53:29.620 And he lost again to the Pearson Liberals.

00:53:33.260 Despite this, Diefenbaker doesn't resign as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.

00:53:38.240 Which put the party in an awkward situation that hasn't really happened before.

00:53:43.120 The typical rules of a Canadian political party were that you stayed leader until you

00:53:47.500 died or resigned.

00:53:49.180 And if you lost twice in a row, you were supposed to do the honorable thing and step aside.

00:53:53.900 But Diefenbaker just didn't.

00:53:57.540 Prompting the party to take the unprecedented step of forcing a party convention in Toronto

00:54:02.200 for the singular purpose of crowbarring Diefenbaker out of the leadership.

00:54:08.320 Diefenbaker shows up, pretends everything is fine, and gives a finger-wagging speech chastising

00:54:14.060 his fellow party members for their disloyalty.

00:54:16.700 I followed this party when I didn't agree with policies.

00:54:22.960 I gave loyalty to leader after leader.

00:54:27.260 Because I believe that there is no other way.

00:54:31.040 He's politely cheered by the assembled conservatives,

00:54:34.060 and then abjectly humiliated in their subsequent leadership vote.

00:54:37.780 On the first ballot, Diefenbaker gets a distant fifth place,

00:54:41.760 and even then he refuses to admit defeat.

Full Comment - May 05, 2025

Poilievre built a new Conservative party. He’ll need to build another

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript