On this episode of Full Common, host Anthony Fores talks with Michael Diamond, founder of Upstream Strategy Group and former campaign director for Doug Ford's leadership campaign, about the latest news surrounding the upcoming leadership race and what it means for the future of Canadian politics.
00:05:40.560Do you feel that is possible right now?
00:05:42.660Or as so many people are saying, this time, things feel different.
00:05:47.620I think Pierre Paulyev is quite well positioned to be prime minister.
00:05:51.080I frankly think, you know, I was sort of surprised last election.
00:05:54.860I thought the conservatives were in a better position to take out Justin Trudeau as well.
00:06:00.500So, you know, elections are funny things and they can happen.
00:06:03.440But, you know, Pierre Paulyev, I think, has a very different approach to politics than any leader we've really seen in Canada in recent times.
00:06:12.480That is, you'll see politicians often fighting yesterday's battle and they're, I don't know if it's that, you know, they and their establishment are upset that they lost an election on an issue and they really want to rectify that, you know, correct the history on that issue.
00:06:36.920So if you go through his riding association, the Conservative Electoral District Association's financial records for it used to be Nepean Carleton.
00:06:45.440And now it's just called Carleton because the riding's changed.
00:06:48.180He's been there since he first was elected.
00:06:50.580And one thing you'll notice is over time, most of these riding association votes and incumbent MP, you know, they raise money locally, you know, it's, you know, they have a fundraiser, people give the money, members give the money at the end of the year.
00:07:02.600Pairs have a cross-Canada, you go through those postal codes and you see addresses everywhere from Prince Edward Island to British Columbia and everywhere in between.
00:07:11.780And that's because he's had this appeal of talking about the issues of today and proposing a conservative solution.
00:07:16.780So Andrew Scheer, I think, you know, who I was quite excited about his candidacy for prime minister, I think he focused on issues of yesterday.
00:07:36.760Not that that's how elections are chosen in this country, but it was monumental.
00:07:40.420And with Aaron O'Toole, I think, you know, where he actually lost some of the ground that Mr. Scheer made up, he was scared to be proudly conservative and a robust conservative.
00:07:52.080And, you know, I think conservatives can win when they offer to grab a phrase from Barry Goldwater or about Barry Goldwater, a echo, a choice, not an echo.
00:08:02.820And I think the great thing about Pierre Polyev is he's not looking at yesterday's issues, he's looking at today's issues, and he always has been.
00:08:47.080So it's the gatekeepers who are keeping the very convenient Toronto Island Airport from being an option to augment Pearson International Airport as the only major airport in the Toronto region.
00:09:00.160Why has Pierre talked about that issue?
00:09:02.240I kind of find it odd that he ceased on that issue.
00:09:07.340Look, I actually think it's a perfect encapsulation of these gatekeepers who are keeping the rest of us from having the services and the products and the low taxes.
00:09:19.980And, you know, to grab a phrase that's apparently offensive now, the freedom that we all need and deserve.
00:09:26.060Oh, no, no, none of those words here, please.
00:09:37.780You know, they're going to put a gatekeeper after you, Anthony.
00:09:39.960But in the meantime, what we have is, you know, Pierre probably just talked about these issues.
00:09:44.400And there's dozens of them in every region of the country.
00:09:47.120And downtown Toronto, where there's certainly a lot of ridings in the conservative leadership, it makes sense.
00:09:52.580But also for the rest of the country, where they're literally, I have friends who don't live here who are scared.
00:09:58.000Not scared, but just like very adverse to traveling to Toronto right now because they want to avoid the catastrophe that they see every day at Pearson International Airport.
00:10:07.700We had a proposal for another airport in Toronto, a very convenient one that would have augmented Pearson's capacity issues, which was not related to COVID.
00:10:16.600But it's related to growth and further demand in travel, both cargo and personal.
00:10:25.980And, you know, Canadians are seeing that across the country, that he's talking about a solution for Pearson.
00:10:32.340He's talking about a solution for passport offices.
00:10:34.560He's talking about getting these gatekeepers out of the way who just, frankly, make everything worse and cost us more money.
00:10:41.320So, you know, it's a good conservative solution that be it from making, you know, municipalities be more cooperative in allowing those who build homes.
00:10:53.960Let me ask, though, these issues, where are they 12 months, 18 months, two years, three years from now when there is an election and when the just don't call it a coalition coalition crumbles between the NDP and liberals and we find ourselves in an election?
00:11:12.900What's what's the atmosphere going to be like that?
00:11:16.380I, you know, I wonder, are the mortgage is going to roll over then and everyone's, you know, going to be losing their houses or are things going to be doing better?
00:11:26.360You know, I mean, I certainly hope that the Canadian economy stabilizes as soon as possible.
00:11:31.860So if that doesn't require an election, that doesn't require, you know, it doesn't require an election.
00:11:36.660I mean, you know, that's good for everyone, obviously.
00:11:38.400But the beauty about Pierre's approach to politics is it doesn't matter what the issues are today because he's focusing on the issues of the day.
00:11:45.960He has his pulse on the, squarely on the zeitgeist.
00:11:48.560So he's nimble enough that he can continue to take this approach to politics of focusing on these issues, not be baked in on, you know, a carbon tax saving plan or have, you know, a platform that's, you know, squarely, you know, largely developed well before an election.
00:12:05.780And it's baked in because, you know, we've decided, you know, that's how we've done politics in the past.
00:12:41.500I don't think Pierre Paglia woke up and said, you know, those passport offices, I really dislike them personally.
00:12:46.840You know, it's like he saw that it was causing chaos for people across the country or ditto for Billy Bishop Airport or ditto.
00:12:53.460Well, let me ask you about pet projects, though, because I think they also speak to long-term vision.
00:12:57.440There's the issues of the day and then there's the, you know, the Canada I want to build, the nation, the vision that I want to get people behind.
00:13:03.180One thing that really gets the crowds excited, and I know we know this predates Pierre Paglia's bid, is smack talk in the CBC to any degree, defunding, eliminating.
00:13:12.340It was interesting that Aaron O'Toole said, I'm going to pretty much eliminate the CBC, and they got watered down, watered down.
00:13:17.900And then eventually it was just like, okay, Justin Trudeau is going to give them whatever, a gazillion billion more.
00:13:22.820I'll just give them slightly less more kind of thing.
00:13:24.640It almost felt like it got to that point.
00:13:26.900Pierre Paglia of being very aggressive talking about CBC, is this the kind of thing that stays as like a core principle and they spend the next couple of years working up to the election or whatever it is,
00:13:38.660talking about how can we actually execute this, what are we going to propose and that kind of stuff?
00:13:43.880And I think it's that, you know, the arguments to perform or abolish or defund the CBC are all highly reasonable if you're bold enough and brave enough to communicate them.
00:13:58.120And I think that's where we got into trouble last time.
00:14:18.180You know, I've not spoken to him about this, you know, but I'm quite confident, you know, you're not going to see the U-turn because, you know, he's in it for these values.
00:14:28.980And sometimes those values will intersect with what the issues of the day are.
00:14:34.680Conservative solutions can always, always, always touch the issues of the day.
00:14:38.460But these other issues, I do think are going to remain, he'll remain true to himself and to our base.
00:14:42.960I've had the experience many times where I've said, what's with this, you know, Aaron O'Toole carbon tax or whatever, something that didn't strike me as genuine.
00:14:50.220And then someone wants to come to argue me or whisper in my ear, oh, no, no, you've got to understand, we're just doing this and that.
00:15:10.080And then when I get in, I'll magically govern as a conservative, even though you don't have the mandate to, because it's not what you campaigned on.
00:15:15.780I mean, those arguments are going to come to the fore.
00:15:18.620Surely someone at the table is going to say, all right, Mr. Polyev, you know, I've run these numbers, these charts and everything.
00:15:23.100There's no way you can win unless you promise, you know, this thing, this liberal thing.
00:15:28.160And Michael, I take it you're saying, well, no, they're just they're not going to do that this time.
00:15:34.440Look, look at the results last time where, you know, where the campaign made a decision.
00:15:39.680You know, I remember one media article about how the whole strategy was to, you know, we're going to trigger we're going to trigger some policy decisions that will cost us vote in Alberta.
00:15:48.740And then we'll like, you know, we'll we'll subtract them in Alberta and then we'll just magically add them into Ontario.
00:15:53.940And that that grand, beautiful, so-called visionary strategy, all it did was it accomplished a goal of costing us votes in Alberta.
00:16:01.660And with it, it also cost the CPC two seats.
00:16:04.700We didn't make up ground in Ontario like they thought.
00:16:08.140So there's like not not only is it wrong, it's just strategically ain't gonna ain't gonna work.
00:16:13.900I mean, you know, the worst thing Pierre could do is do something that damages the authenticity that drives him.
00:16:22.120So so I think they're going to be very smart about that.
00:16:24.720And I think they're going to be very protective of that because it's it's a key selling feature for him.
00:16:30.600It's why, you know, like I got to tell you, since he won, I've received one Insta.
00:16:35.640I was there on Saturday night at the Shaw Center in Ottawa when he won.
00:16:38.940And I posted a photo on my Instagram story of his victory speech.
00:16:43.140And I heard from one longtime conservative fellow who I know and worked on a campaign with him before, who said, well, I guess I'm going to vote liberal for the first time ever.
00:16:52.680Well, I've also heard from probably eight or nine folks who I know, but have never been overly political or genuinely excited about having a different approach to politics, a choice, not an echo for a change.
00:17:07.980So I actually think that it is that differentiation with the Liberal Party.
00:17:11.760It is that differentiation with Justin Trudeau between, you know, the phony, the phony, the phony actor who has a preference for very racist costumes and Pierre Polyev, who, you know, might not have might be a bit rough around the edges for some's take.
00:17:35.620Justin Trudeau, the racist costumes, because when I I look through my Twitter feed of people who are leftists or centrist, I don't know what they are.
00:17:42.060One of the big criticisms, and this is not the first time this has been leveled against a conservative candidate, you know, pretty typical that, OK, Justin Trudeau, whatever he's done.
00:17:49.620Pierre Polyev, he's he's the extremist.
00:17:53.440They throw all those words in and they're not given any examples, but they're throwing them in.
00:17:56.640They clearly believe it and they're clearly shopping that around and it's making its way into some newspaper columns and commentary in a non libelous way.
00:18:46.380And the voters will also recognize these lies.
00:18:49.120And so they did with Stephen Harper after the, you know, character assassination against Stockwell Day in 2000 and the character assassination against Stephen Harper in 2004.
00:18:57.720By 2006, folks are like, this is this is nonsense.
00:19:02.220And, you know, I think it's the same thing.
00:19:04.040The liberal playbook with Scheer and with O'Toole just won't work because it was so fully full of, you know, malarkey that folks are going to wise up to that.
00:19:17.200The narrative about Patrick Brown was that he was the person who almost had a lock on bringing diverse voices, diverse persons into the party.
00:19:25.180That's what he would bring in this leadership race.
00:19:26.860I remember I was on a CBC television debate panel talking about this.
00:19:29.960And I said, I think people have overplayed that with Patrick Brown to a degree and then underplayed the fact that it seems that phenomenon has played out with Pierre.
00:19:39.200Look, I mean, look, if you look at the right, Pierre did incredibly well in some of the diverse ridings of the country in urban centers.
00:19:46.080And the GTA, Scarborough, he won every riding in Scarborough, which is heavily diverse, every riding in the field region.
00:19:52.860Patrick Brown's current hometown of Brampton, won every riding there.
00:19:58.680He won ridings in suburban Winnipeg, suburban Edmonton, suburban Calgary that are heavily diverse.
00:20:04.760He certainly had support from a diverse section of members, not just geographically, but speaking from religious and other backgrounds, which is fantastic.
00:20:17.660I mean, look, Patrick Brown is a legendary organizer and a hustler.
00:20:21.620And that's how he went from being a fairly unknown member of parliament to leader of the PC party in Ontario before, you know, the drama that occurred that relieved him of that position.
00:20:32.400But that said, you know, Pierre still sold substantially more memberships than the vaunted organizer, Patrick Brown.
00:20:44.420We'll be back with more full comment in just a moment.
00:20:46.580All right. Speaking of selling new memberships, bring new people into the party, talking about young people being interested in the Pierre-Paulie of campaign, to what degree do you feel that's substantiated?
00:20:58.040Tell me the numbers, the data behind all of that.
00:21:00.800Well, you know, I actually don't know one thing with that is, you know, it is for me, it's anecdotal because, you know, the Conservative Party candidate does not have a youth wing.
00:21:08.800So there's not a designation on your membership form that, you know, I am a youth member paying a youth rate.
00:21:13.880So, you know, I actually don't know what the breakdown of youth members is.
00:21:17.040So, but Anna Golding, you look at the crowds he was getting, you know, these were not your typical folks showing up in an Andrew Scheer rally or, you know, the folks showing up to Jean Charest, you know, Tim Horton's meet and greets, you know, with gray hair.
00:21:29.660These were young parents, young professionals, in many cases, students who were excited, again, about having that choice, not an echo.
00:21:37.920And so, I mean, anecdotally speaking, you know, absolutely, you know, soft, you know, if you look at, you know, just again, personally, you know, folks I heard from throughout the campaign who are on the younger end of the spectrum,
00:21:51.340who were excited about something political when they'd never shown interest in politics before, was quite, you know, quite, quite, quite impressive.
00:22:03.560No, certainly. And, you know, what does that say that young people are getting involved right now?
00:22:09.480And obviously the party is going to hope to capitalize on that and continue it.
00:22:12.680It reminds me a little bit about the Trudeau mania stuff that happened in the 2015 election.
00:22:17.360You know, slightly different things going on there.
00:22:19.820But I also feel like one of the big changes is that Trudeau's like an older guy now.
00:22:26.840It seems like, you know, it's like an older demographic now who are most fiercely fighting for him.
00:22:32.280And Pierre has a bit of the energy of being the hip young guy.
00:22:37.000Exactly. I mean, one, I mean, the age difference is on that side, but also it's hard to be the voice of change that the future is looking for.
00:22:47.360When you have been the status quo through three elections.
00:22:53.660You know, a lot of that 2015, a lot of people think it was chalked up.
00:22:58.640I think there was a whole lot of reasons it was.
00:23:00.360But I mean, one of the reasons there was excitement amongst youth and the corresponding increase in their turnout.
00:23:06.600You know, a lot of folks credit to the cannabis legalization.
00:23:09.400Well, he did that. Like, what have you done for me lately, bud?
00:23:11.820And, you know, you have Pierre talking about, you know, I personally don't know of like, I don't know anyone in my circles who were moved to vote because of cannabis legalization.
00:23:23.540I've heard of folks and I'm sure there are.
00:23:25.380But, you know, if anyone was willing to vote over that, you got to think folks living at home still or paying rent for a place that's way too small and that are fearful they'll never be able to afford a house will be a bit more inclined to be excited in voting for the guy talking about homeownership and affordability for the first time in a very long time.
00:23:48.280Well, it is interesting that, you know, Justin Trudeau has kind of become the politician of no in terms of all this killjoy stuff where it's like, no, you can't get on a plane unless you have your fourth booster dose.
00:23:59.020No, you've got to be fired if you misgender someone.
00:24:01.380I know he doesn't have those policies, but he gives off that vibe of being that guy or, you know, we're going to stick it to you with the whatever the fourth carbon tax, whatever he's bringing in.
00:24:08.440And it's really like this guy really just wants to tell you what to do, tell you how to live, tell you, no, you can't do that.
00:24:14.340And that's that's both him and his policies and the people who he's kind of surrounding himself with and the people who are attracted to him.
00:24:19.580And it's like, you guys are kind of such downers like they're just, I don't know, they're not cool these days.
00:24:25.640Well, and look, I mean, you know, it's similar to the last Ontario election we had where you had Doug Ford proposing a bunch of stuff.
00:24:31.380And like catnip, the NDP and liberal said, no, no, no.
00:24:34.680And, you know, folks, we've all had a really hard time through the last couple of years, some of us much worse than others.
00:25:47.340Where is conservatism in general heading in Canada, the English speaking world, the Western world?
00:25:54.340Because I know you're a great student of American politics, American conservatism, a great history buff.
00:25:59.240What are you seeing going on kind of generally right now when it's, whether it's Pierre Polyev or anybody else talking about the elites, talking about the gatekeepers?
00:26:07.240I mean, there's momentum behind all of that.
00:26:14.240Look, it's disruption and it's disruption from the status quo, which is exciting.
00:26:18.460So, you know, in Ontario, the Press Conservative Party won a massive re-election with a, for that party, a very atypical electoral coalition and a very atypical voter pool.
00:26:31.300By, you know, talking about things like, you know, dignity and rights for workers, which I think is actually a good conservative value.
00:26:40.240And there might be folks who disagree with that, but I think, you know, they're not looking where politics is yelling.
00:26:44.380So, you know, it's the age of disruption in the conservative part, in the conservative movements.
00:26:48.720And in some places that can be quite bad, you know, I am personally not, you know, not a fan of the former president of the United States, who seems to have hijacked the Republican Party, which certainly had flaws and problems that needed to be addressed.
00:27:02.580But if you look what, you know, what the Press Conservatives have done in Ontario, other conservative parties in Canada that have managed to win atypical, you know, Tim Houston and the Press Conservative Party of Nova Scotia winning an election on health care, which used to be, you know, something that conservatives were scared to talk about because there was no votes for them there.
00:27:21.280It's the age of disruption in conservatism.
00:27:24.640And I think, you know, with Pierre, that's going to mean a recommitment to conservative values with a very smart political strategy of contextualizing it to issues that are facing the electorate today, not four years ago.
00:27:43.200One of the big attacks against conservative leaders, rightly or wrongly, is always an attempt to create a secret agenda, usually hidden SOCON agenda.
00:27:51.280I think Justin Trudeau and others were very giddy about the Roe versus Wade thing down south of the border, because then they could fundraise off at fearmonger, it's going to happen here.
00:27:59.020And, you know, Stephen Harper had the secret agenda, and he didn't even bring it in during the majority.
00:28:02.760So, so secret that I guess he didn't even know about it.
00:28:05.540They did the same stuff with Andrew Scheer, couldn't really do it with Aaron O'Toole.
00:28:09.980And now with Pierre, something that they're amplifying a fair bit at the end of his speeches, he's really making it clear, doesn't matter who you love.
00:28:16.900That's the thing he's saying a lot, and doesn't matter whether your name is.
00:28:19.360And then he says names that are clearly persons of different background and heritage.
00:28:24.140So he's not overly emphasizing, hamming up the way Trudeau is like, hey, did you hear I'm a feminist?
00:28:31.260You know, oh my God, guys, this is getting creepy kind of thing.
00:28:33.060But Pierre's still putting those pieces there for people.
00:28:36.520Yeah, look, I mean, I think that, you know, and I will take, you know, there's been different types of hidden agendas that have been levied against conservatives.
00:28:46.000So Stephen Harper had the whole host of it, and Andrew Scheer had it on social conservative issues.
00:28:50.900And Aaron O'Toole definitely, I think, had it on firearms issues.
00:28:54.420And he fed right into that with some of the flip-flops.
00:28:57.400You know, if you revise your platform when it's out, it obviously, it will be cause for concern.
00:29:03.460I think Pierre benefits from being so concise and so clear on these various issues that there's, you know, it will be very hard to brand him as something he's not because he's been so bold at being branded at what he is.
00:29:17.000And, you know, he joined us on this podcast earlier this year, I guess the day he announced his leadership run.
00:29:25.040And I think his very first line on the podcast was, I support the truckers.
00:30:17.000And, you know, the distrust between government and the electorate is very concerning because, you know, you have all these politicians lecturing about, you know, the loss of trust between our public institutions.
00:30:29.680When they break, when they break their word time and again, you see Justin Trudeau, you know, there hasn't been a commitment.
00:30:58.760You know, and it didn't matter if you like him or not.
00:31:01.520Unless you were living under a rock in Toronto, you knew what he stood for, why he was doing it and what he believed and what he did.
00:31:09.140And, you know, Mike Harris is another great example.
00:31:11.600And I think we'll see Pierre be much more like that, which is great because, you know, even for those who don't like what he does, the restoration of trust.
00:31:21.300If we believe trust in public institutions is important, like Justin Trudeau, electors us that we should, politicians who keep their word seems to me to be a very good starting point.
00:31:34.060One of the leadership races I reflect on a lot is one that wasn't, that never followed through, which was the Kevin O'Leary conservative leadership race.
00:31:40.840And as you know, polling had showed that he would have won the race likely on the first ballot with a majority.
00:31:46.160And the general election polling showed that he stood a pretty darn good chance of becoming prime minister as well.
00:31:52.240Who knows what would have happened in the interim.
00:31:54.240But then I guess one of the reported reasons why he bowed out was it finally dawned on him that, oh, I become leader.
00:31:59.960And then I sit at Stornoway for like two years, kind of twiddling my thumbs.