Full Comment - Report from inside Ukraine under attack

00:00:00.000 Did you lock the front door?

00:00:04.060 Check.

00:00:04.620 Closed the garage door?

00:00:05.780 Yep.

00:00:06.300 Installed window sensors, smoke sensors, and HD cameras with night vision?

00:00:09.780 No.

00:00:10.620 And you set up credit card transaction alerts, a secure VPN for a private connection,

00:00:14.060 and continuous monitoring for our personal info on the dark web?

00:00:17.080 Uh, I'm looking into it?

00:00:19.600 Stress less about security.

00:00:21.360 Choose security solutions from Telus for peace of mind at home and online.

00:00:25.220 Visit telus.com slash total security to learn more.

00:00:28.780 Conditions apply.

00:00:30.960 While other money managers are holding, Dynamic is hunting.

00:00:35.780 Seeing past the horizon.

00:00:37.780 Investing beyond the benchmark.

00:00:40.040 Because your money can't grow if it doesn't move.

00:00:43.460 Learn more at dynamic.ca slash active.

00:00:47.440 Dynamic.

00:00:48.400 Actively different.

00:00:49.780 When I found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from Winners,

00:00:53.640 I started wondering, is every fabulous item I see from Winners?

00:00:58.220 Like that woman over there with the designer jeans. 1.00

00:01:01.440 Are those from Winners?

00:01:02.940 Ooh, or those beautiful gold earrings.

00:01:05.400 Did she pay full price?

00:01:06.740 Or that leather tote?

00:01:07.760 Or that cashmere sweater?

00:01:09.000 Or those knee-high boots?

00:01:10.380 That dress?

00:01:11.220 That jacket?

00:01:11.900 Those shoes?

00:01:12.560 Is anyone paying full price for anything?

00:01:15.860 Stop wondering.

00:01:17.140 Start winning.

00:01:18.080 Winners.

00:01:18.660 Find fabulous for less.

00:01:20.060 Hi, I'm Anthony Fury.

00:01:25.240 Thanks for joining us for the latest episode of Full Comet.

00:01:27.780 Please consider subscribing if you haven't already.

00:01:29.820 Last episode, General Tom Lawson, the former head of the Canadian Armed Forces,

00:01:34.340 joined us to give us a big-picture look at the war in Ukraine from a military perspective.

00:01:39.120 For this episode, we're joined by a reporter on the ground in Ukraine

00:01:42.300 to break down what life is like right now living in a country under brutal invasion.

00:01:47.680 What are the people saying?

00:01:49.180 What do they hope will happen next?

00:01:50.940 What do they think will happen next?

00:01:52.480 And is Putin going to get what he wants?

00:01:55.020 Or is the inspiring pushback we've seen from the people of Ukraine going to ultimately prevail?

00:02:00.400 Freelance journalist and Eastern European affairs expert Neil Howard joins us now.

00:02:04.420 He's been writing for Post Media and also his bylines with CNN,

00:02:07.980 The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, and many other publications.

00:02:11.280 Hey, Neil, great to have you.

00:02:12.440 Welcome to the show.

00:02:13.520 Hey, thanks so much for having me.

00:02:14.660 Yeah, thanks for joining us.

00:02:16.140 You've got such a fascinating and important and obviously alarming story to tell

00:02:21.540 about what's going on there right now.

00:02:23.400 And I want to hear what you're hearing from others.

00:02:26.500 But I also want to hear just about your situation right now.

00:02:29.020 Tell us where are you right now and where were you a week ago?

00:02:33.180 And what has been your travels in Ukraine the past couple of weeks?

00:02:37.640 Right.

00:02:37.820 So right now I'm in the city of Lviv, which is the capital of Western Ukraine,

00:02:42.580 and about 70 kilometers from the border with Poland.

00:02:47.460 So this is sort of the terminus for everyone fleeing the rest of the country,

00:02:51.220 trying to get to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, et cetera.

00:02:54.860 And, you know, I'm in a cafe right now as the city is pretty overrun

00:02:58.400 with displaced people that are on their way to becoming refugees.

00:03:02.960 And, you know, I've been here in Lviv for the last four days now.

00:03:08.000 After fleeing Kiev myself, I was in Kiev.

00:03:11.660 I arrived in Ukraine a little over a month ago,

00:03:13.220 and I was in Kiev when the war started a week ago today, last Thursday,

00:03:19.040 with cruise missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital about 5 a.m. local time,

00:03:24.600 and spent the next two days in Kiev, you know, hearing, you know, missile strikes,

00:03:30.180 the first missile strikes each night.

00:03:32.000 And then on the second day, even small arms gunfire from our apartment in downtown Kiev

00:03:37.280 as Russian special forces had entered the city.

00:03:40.460 And then on Saturday, managed to get on one of the trains still leaving,

00:03:44.760 scrambling aboard there with everyone else.

00:03:46.220 And since then I've been in Western Ukraine.

00:03:47.900 Wow. I mean, I can't imagine what that was like.

00:03:52.400 Those of us over here in Canada, I mean, we remember that evening

00:03:56.220 when the military operation, as Putin calls it, had started.

00:03:59.400 And we were, I guess it was like 10 p.m., 11 p.m. our time.

00:04:02.200 And I remember just watching on Twitter and, you know, they call it doom scrolling

00:04:04.960 and seeing in real time, okay, this missile has hit and there's this explosion

00:04:10.200 and you're watching, you're going, wow, can't believe I'm watching the live streaming

00:04:14.340 of the commencement of this war, but you were watching it literally from an apartment window.

00:04:20.340 I know there was a number of weeks, I guess, months of will Putin, won't he,

00:04:24.480 what will happen, how's it going to be?

00:04:26.040 What was it like in that actual moment that waking up at 5 a.m.

00:04:30.200 and it actually happening right in front of you?

00:04:32.860 Yeah. I mean, it was all sort of this slow buildup here over a period of months.

00:04:37.720 I mean, I came to Ukraine for that reason.

00:04:40.320 I lived on super far away in Armenia, about a three-hour flight away from Kiev.

00:04:44.340 And so I came here as that buildup was happening and then watching it.

00:04:49.240 And then, you know, there was still a sense that here that thing that, you know,

00:04:53.800 people downplayed the possibility that who could imagine a full-scale invasion from Russia,

00:04:59.360 the largest country in Europe, just launching a full invasion of the second largest country in Europe.

00:05:03.740 But the mood definitely changed here starting Monday last week after Putin gave that speech

00:05:09.040 where he ended up recognizing the two separatist republics.

00:05:11.660 And then people began to understand, OK, this is something different.

00:05:14.300 This is really looking bad.

00:05:16.160 And then, yeah, suddenly at 5 a.m.

00:05:20.420 Kiev time on that Wednesday, it was, you know, the first explosions over the course of the next two hours,

00:05:28.980 probably 15 or so, as the cruise missiles hit the capital.

00:05:33.320 And yeah, wild stuff.

00:05:34.620 What was the immediate reaction from individuals?

00:05:39.180 Was it, I mean, we've seen those videos of obviously children hunkered in subway systems, in shelters,

00:05:45.260 some of those happening, you know, days after things began, you know, pictures of some people screaming.

00:05:49.500 But we've also seen pictures of normalcy in terms of someone with a briefcase,

00:05:54.280 seemingly wherever that person was going, walking to work or what have you,

00:05:57.000 with in the background of a CNN report or some sort of live stream.

00:06:01.060 So there's, there's, yeah, what were people doing with their regular day?

00:06:06.040 I mean, pretty much as soon as it happened in Kiev, life changed very dramatically immediately.

00:06:11.540 I mean, that first day, Thursday, it was already, you know, the streets largely empty,

00:06:17.280 still a few people out and about, but most shops closed.

00:06:20.580 Bank machines were not working, most of them.

00:06:23.060 And the ones that did severely limited the amount of money you could withdraw.

00:06:25.900 And, you know, even then, just walking down the street in central Kiev,

00:06:31.380 about 3 p.m., suddenly the air raid siren goes off and everyone has to run to the nearest, the nearest shelter.

00:06:39.700 And so the daily life, you know, people still going about it a little bit,

00:06:45.220 but it changed very rapidly into, you know, just sort of a desolate environment, really, in Kiev.

00:06:50.600 Now, being in the most Western city, further removed from the most acute points of military action,

00:06:57.400 what is it like day to day?

00:06:58.580 I know you're in a cafe right now.

00:07:00.180 Are people just in the cafe to do as you're doing, sort of to talk to other people about the situation

00:07:05.720 and people connecting with loved ones?

00:07:07.640 Or are there people just chilling out, hanging out?

00:07:09.640 Is there a daily life going on in Lviv right now?

00:07:12.440 Yeah, there is certainly some semblance of daily life happening here.

00:07:15.520 I mean, there is curfew at 10 p.m., so you have to be off the streets by then,

00:07:20.140 and that means most things close around 8 or 9.

00:07:24.000 But, you know, a lot of places aren't open, but there is still, you know,

00:07:28.140 but in the daylight hours here, some semblance of daily life going on as well.

00:07:32.660 I mean, there's very few places to stay in the city.

00:07:35.600 You know, most residences are clogged up with people fleeing the rest of the country,

00:07:41.280 but at the same time, you know, it's a massively different scene here than it was in Asia-Tia.

00:07:46.860 There's, of course, been a lot of concerns about civilian injuries, civilian fatalities,

00:07:52.680 war crimes basically going on based on how Putin is conducting this, quote-unquote, operation.

00:07:59.620 What are you seeing?

00:08:00.720 What are you hearing from that perspective?

00:08:03.060 I mean, absolutely.

00:08:03.880 Like, it opened, I think, with a lot less of just the shock and awe that most people were,

00:08:10.100 most military experts had expected, where they met, you know, just a massive barrage all across Ukraine.

00:08:16.100 And it was more restrained in those early hours.

00:08:18.480 But then, especially in the last few days after the Russians seemingly, 0.84

00:08:24.320 Putin really thought that this would be over in two or three days,

00:08:26.720 that they would just walk into the cities and seize control of key infrastructure and take over.

00:08:30.600 But that didn't play out, which, you know, so the lighter columns,

00:08:35.100 the columns of lighter armored vehicles of Russian special forces and paratroopers

00:08:38.080 that tried to seize the cities were destroyed.

00:08:40.740 And now the Russians, especially in Kiev and in Kharkiv, 0.77

00:08:45.020 in the city in the northeast, that's Ukraine's second largest city,

00:08:47.680 they're resorting to more of this indiscriminate bombardment strategy

00:08:51.460 of trying to break down the will of the defenders and the will of the population.

00:08:56.320 And definitely people have remarked that there is quite a will for the defenders,

00:09:02.240 quite a fighting spirit among so many individuals,

00:09:04.860 whether it's, of course, Ukrainian forces who are employed to do that, Zelensky himself.

00:09:09.420 We've seen those images of regular citizens arming themselves,

00:09:14.220 people saying a couple of months ago,

00:09:15.880 I would have never envisioned myself picking up arms.

00:09:18.000 Now I'm doing it.

00:09:19.240 Tell us about that.

00:09:20.220 What are people saying about their feelings of defending their own country?

00:09:24.000 Absolutely.

00:09:24.680 I mean, the response of this has been so tremendous.

00:09:27.300 I think in the first few days, the first day or two,

00:09:29.920 people were just sort of in a state of shock.

00:09:31.760 But then that resolve hardened very quickly.

00:09:35.000 And, you know, already on the first day,

00:09:36.280 the government announced that if you want to defend the city in Kiev,

00:09:39.560 we come to the armories, we will give you a Kalashnikov.

00:09:43.800 And already within the first few days, tens of thousands of people took that up.

00:09:47.740 And the scale of it has been such that I'm talking to people in Kiev who went to try and enlist in those militias,

00:09:55.700 enlist in the territorial defense force and were turned away because they cannot handle the amount of volunteers that they have.

00:10:02.360 Wow.

00:10:02.600 I've even seen it with other people, you know, a friend of a friend who we took the train from Kiev to Lviv with.

00:10:09.040 She was initially planning, you know, she's 29 years old, a fitness instructor,

00:10:13.700 and she was initially planning on leaving to Poland and then decided after arriving in Lviv,

00:10:19.880 no, I'm going to stay and make Molotov cocktails.

00:10:22.600 And, you know, these are sorts of stories that are just all over the place here.

00:10:25.920 And to what degree is that playing out?

00:10:29.480 People are getting in a fighting position, they're getting prepared.

00:10:32.460 But what is the volume of regular citizens actually engaged in firefights,

00:10:37.280 in combat, in throwing those Molotov cocktails at Russian forces right now?

00:10:40.680 I mean, I think it's quite a bit, you know, especially in Kiev and Kharkiv,

00:10:44.880 the two cities that are seeing the most fighting in Kiev.

00:10:48.760 As I can tell, it's become a pretty fortified place in the last few days.

00:10:53.840 You know, what initially started as makeshift barricades in the streets have been reinforced with

00:10:58.080 cranes, excavators bringing in, you know, reinforced concrete and setting up barricades

00:11:03.600 all across the main streets of the capital.

00:11:06.440 And, you know, we've seen videos as well of Ukrainian civilians driving past Russian armored vehicles

00:11:13.760 in their cars and then leaning out the window and throwing Molotov cocktails at the Russian tanks.

00:11:18.880 And, you know, just some of these incredible scenes.

00:11:20.920 Neil, we've seen various postings on social media of Russian soldiers

00:11:24.820 being taken captive or waving the white flag, basically saying, OK, I surrender.

00:11:30.340 And then some very compassionate videos of Ukrainians giving a cup of tea and saying,

00:11:34.520 you can now call your mother back in Russia.

00:11:36.300 To what degree are these anomalous?

00:11:39.060 But they're putting them out there to say, hey, look, we're at least scoring these minor occasional victories.

00:11:42.900 And to what degree is this a sense of, yeah, like, you know, we're really doing well here as defenders, Ukrainians?

00:11:48.480 I mean, I think this is becoming one of the key trends that we're seeing here in the last few days

00:11:52.680 is that, you know, a lot of these Russian soldiers really don't want to be there.

00:11:57.600 And that the sense really is that, as we see in here again and again from these captured Russian soldiers,

00:12:03.620 is that they were just told, you're on exercises.

00:12:07.240 You're just out there doing this exercise.

00:12:09.260 They did not know there was going to be an invasion.

00:12:10.960 And a lot of them, you know, they're officially all contract soldiers,

00:12:16.060 but a lot of them were press ganged into it, essentially.

00:12:18.560 They were conscripts doing their mandatory military service,

00:12:22.440 who were then forced to sign a contract or threatened with consequences.

00:12:26.620 And then after that point, you know, forced into this invasion of Ukraine,

00:12:30.160 which they didn't know was happening and which they don't want to be involved in,

00:12:33.800 especially a war that is not just some easy walkover,

00:12:37.440 or they have a very real chance of dying.

00:12:40.120 And so in the last few days, we've seen, you know, so many videos of even whole Russian units

00:12:45.320 basically dropping their arms or walking over to the Ukrainian side.

00:12:50.040 Wow. So who really wants this conflict? Is it just Vladimir Putin?

00:12:54.180 Absolutely. I mean, it absolutely seems like that.

00:12:56.620 You know, we've seen the videos from the very first day across Russia.

00:13:00.960 In the first day alone in Russia, there was protests against the war in 53 different cities.

00:13:05.580 And this is despite the fact that the laws in Russia are so draconian,

00:13:10.360 that if you immediately make a post on social media, on Facebook,

00:13:14.460 about some sort of anti-war stance, you can and often are arrested for that and charged.

00:13:19.900 And you can be in prison for 10 years just for that.

00:13:22.660 And despite this fact, you know, there have been thousands of people

00:13:25.780 coming out into the streets in Russia, protesting, saying no to war,

00:13:29.520 saying, no, we do not want this war.

00:13:31.120 And so, you know, as I saw put well by another another analyst here a little while ago,

00:13:36.760 Putin is fighting two wars now, both in Ukraine and at home.

00:13:40.240 It was remarkable to see some of that footage of protests happening in major Russian cities.

00:13:45.380 And police go up, law enforcement go and take away an anti-war banner that a few protesters have.

00:13:50.820 They drag the three of them away from the edges of the protest.

00:13:53.400 And you're like, OK, you're going to arrest three people.

00:13:55.940 You do realize there are 300 or 1,000 other people right there as well.

00:14:00.980 I mean, can they clamp down on all of this sentiment?

00:14:02.900 I mean, the silver lining for the authorities in Russia is that it's so difficult to organize mass-scale protests

00:14:09.820 that, you know, there's really all these things are completely uncoordinated in terms of

00:14:14.180 they're all just people showing up randomly to Central Square and hoping other people will be there

00:14:18.560 because you can't organize anything at all.

00:14:21.100 But already a couple of days ago, there was reports that the detention centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg,

00:14:27.720 Russia's two biggest cities, are full.

00:14:29.280 You know, they've arrested, he's confirmed at least 5,000 or 6,000 people,

00:14:33.980 and there's no more space in those detention centers.

00:14:36.780 That is massive.

00:14:38.000 6,000 people arrested for this.

00:14:41.120 And to your point, no more space.

00:14:42.860 How long can they keep this going?

00:14:44.980 Is it your sense that Russian opposition to the war will, I guess, be muted because of these arrests?

00:14:50.460 Or are people just saying, no, I mean, we're feeling the economic consequences.

00:14:54.140 We're going to keep protesting.

00:14:55.240 I mean, this situation in Russia, especially now the last two days, is crazy in terms of the economy

00:15:02.040 started to absolutely tank as a result of these massive sanctions, the currency's tanking,

00:15:07.400 tons of services are not available, things like Apple and Google are not available there anymore.

00:15:13.060 And, you know, so people have started fleeing Russia en masse.

00:15:15.700 Like, I talked to one Russian friend yesterday, and she said, literally all my friends are shoving clothes in a suitcase

00:15:20.600 and getting the first flight out because the sense is that there's a strong possibility that tomorrow

00:15:25.720 they will introduce martial law in Russia and ban all flights from the country.

00:15:29.560 And so people are trying to get out before that happens as basically the Iron Curtain is coming down again.

00:15:35.080 I want to ask you the million-dollar question that everybody's talking about right now,

00:15:38.660 and I want to get your perspective on it.

00:15:40.180 What does Putin want?

00:15:42.140 I mean, Putin seems to want, essentially, to destroy Ukraine as an independent and viable state.

00:15:48.560 You know, it would have been nice for him if he could have just walked in and taken over the government

00:15:54.640 and the country and put in some pliable administration in the space of 48 or 72 hours.

00:16:00.900 But if that's not the possibility, then at the very least, you know, destroy Ukraine as a place that can sit, 0.99

00:16:07.380 as a country that can exist and make its own choices and be able to have, you know, an anti-Russian orientation

00:16:13.860 and make it so that Ukraine cannot possibly exist as a place with, as a functional independent state

00:16:21.460 with a potentially anti-Russian position.

00:16:24.100 So we had some individuals saying, and this was what it, I think, seemed like to a lot of people early on,

00:16:29.740 that it was really just about carving out further eastern territory, those two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk.

00:16:35.760 We've clearly seen that's not the case because of what's going on in the capital.

00:16:39.680 Then we've got others with a more sort of maximal perspective saying,

00:16:42.920 well, if he's going to do Ukraine, what stops him from crossing over into another border?

00:16:46.400 A lot of people say, well, hold on a second.

00:16:47.660 Those are NATO boundaries.

00:16:48.540 So that's the big difference there.

00:16:49.700 But you've got the smaller view and then you've got the enlarged view.

00:16:54.000 Where does the truth sit?

00:16:55.560 You seem to be suggesting that this is a conflict that is primarily focused on the identity of Ukraine.

00:17:01.740 Yeah, absolutely.

00:17:02.760 And I think, you know, Putin himself made that very clear when he gave this speech last Monday,

00:17:07.220 the one in which he recognized the two separatist republics in the eastern Ukraine.

00:17:10.800 But the first 30, 40 minutes of that speech was just this insane rant about how Ukraine is not a real country,

00:17:16.440 how it was created by Lenin and the Bolsheviks and by the Russians themselves,

00:17:20.900 and how now it's not even being run by Ukraine, but it's being by Ukrainians,

00:17:25.680 but it's being run by this fascist U.S. puppet regime,

00:17:30.220 which exists only to hold Ukrainians themselves hostage.

00:17:33.260 And they're the brother people of Russians who must be freed from this foreign domination.

00:17:38.920 And he made it very clear that he doesn't think Ukraine has a right to exist or is a real country at all.

00:17:44.020 Where does the truth lie in terms of the sentiments going on among Ukrainians,

00:17:49.620 particularly of those in the east?

00:17:52.120 I've seen the public opinion surveys that are actually from Russian news agencies,

00:17:56.000 so let's just call them propaganda,

00:17:57.700 talking about a very high percentage of people in eastern Ukraine who aren't happy being in Ukraine.

00:18:02.240 They want to join Russia. 0.78

00:18:03.400 They want to separate.

00:18:04.480 And obviously, Putin is significantly ramping up those numbers.

00:18:07.380 But at the same time, I know the percentage is not zero in terms of the people in the east

00:18:11.140 who have those views.

00:18:12.720 So what's really going on with that question of identity in eastern Ukraine?

00:18:17.760 I mean, Ukraine, you know, as a country always was, pre-2014, was always quite split.

00:18:22.880 And, you know, plenty of people with fond memories of the Soviet Union

00:18:26.940 or fond relations with Russian people.

00:18:29.280 You know, everyone has relatives in Russia somewhere.

00:18:32.480 And Ukraine would always be between these two sides, 0.95

00:18:36.140 between balancing between having strong links to Russia,

00:18:39.100 but also having increasing links with the west as well.

00:18:42.420 And then after the invasion in 2014 and the annexation of Crimea,

00:18:47.340 that shifted very heavily against Russia.

00:18:50.000 And people began to have this.

00:18:52.220 This is sort of, you know, the ultimate irony of Putin's moves here is that

00:18:56.360 in order in trying to deter Ukraine from joining NATO

00:19:00.980 and or joining the EU or having Western orientation,

00:19:04.200 he's guaranteed that everyone in the country hates Russia.

00:19:08.860 And now, you know, now that the Russians have launched this full-scale invasion, 0.95

00:19:13.140 you know, there is no sentiment here except for just hatred of Russia and of Putin

00:19:17.740 because they're actively, every day, indiscriminately bombarding cities.

00:19:22.840 So you could not have made a policy choice that would have more guaranteed

00:19:28.000 that Ukraine will be an anti-Russian state forever.

00:19:30.260 There are so many images that Canadians are seeing that are shocking, upsetting to them.

00:19:35.640 Images of the Children's Cancer Hospital being under siege.

00:19:39.000 And a lot of voices say, why can't we do more?

00:19:41.640 And there is an appetite, not just among online sort of Twitter voices,

00:19:45.940 but even a number of prominent official individuals

00:19:48.320 basically talking about getting more involved in a military sense.

00:19:51.940 But we've got Jen Steltenberg, head of NATO, saying that ain't going to happen.

00:19:55.700 And they were on the record months ago saying they're not going to do that.

00:19:57.800 President Biden, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying similar things.

00:20:01.560 What is your perspective on the role in which Western forces, NATO forces,

00:20:07.360 do want to have any further involvement?

00:20:10.100 Yeah, I mean, the degree to which it's going to happen is essentially what we're already seeing.

00:20:14.700 You know, tons of arms deliveries, especially anti-aircraft and anti-tank shoulder-fired missiles,

00:20:22.880 which have already come into many of thousands of which have already arrived in Ukraine.

00:20:27.460 And we've seen people like places like Germany, Germany, which was always, you know, 0.97

00:20:31.400 against this sort of any sort of military aid to Ukraine or anything.

00:20:35.800 Over the weekend, Chancellor Schultz basically undid 30 years of German policy in one speech

00:20:42.820 and said this is an existential threat for European security and we are standing with Ukraine. 0.54

00:20:48.240 But the one thing there's not going to be is a no-fly zone or direct NATO involvement

00:20:52.300 because there's a lot of people clamoring for a no-fly zone, a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine.

00:20:56.860 But then what happens, you shoot down a Russian, if a Russian plane's there and you shoot it down,

00:21:00.860 now you are actively risking an escalation that could very conceivably lead to war between Russia

00:21:07.320 and the West and war between nuclear war as well.

00:21:10.760 So there will never be some sort of no-fly zone here.

00:21:12.940 There are a lot of concerns about Vladimir Putin raising the prospect of upping the nuclear awareness level,

00:21:19.940 whatever the technical term is, but I understand there's four levels in Russia

00:21:23.200 and he only upped them to level two as opposed to going full scale at level four.

00:21:28.340 Is this just a threat?

00:21:30.200 Is this a serious look into the minds of Russian military strategy?

00:21:34.780 How do you approach that issue?

00:21:36.260 Yeah, that's correct.

00:21:36.960 That's good that you mentioned that because that is,

00:21:38.920 it was the second of the four readiness levels that he moved it to there.

00:21:43.680 And, you know, of course, with nuclear matters,

00:21:46.520 you never want to downplay anything or take anything lightly.

00:21:50.040 But at the same time, the fact that Putin does that is a sign of weakness, not of strength.

00:21:54.960 It's a sign that he has a few cards left to play.

00:21:57.500 And, you know, this sort of nuclear bluff, this sort of nuclear brinksmanship is one of them

00:22:02.260 because the war is not going well for Russia.

00:22:05.120 We can say that without reservations, really.

00:22:09.880 And so at that point, you know, he's trying to dissuade any arms deliveries

00:22:14.360 by raising the readiness of the nuclear forces.

00:22:18.440 But, you know, clearly, as he did that, it hasn't worked.

00:22:21.460 We'll be back with more full comment in just a moment after these messages.

00:22:27.160 Neil Hauer, I know you mentioned that originally Vladimir Putin was thinking or hoping

00:22:31.040 and even many military strategists were thinking this would be concluded in just a couple of days.

00:22:34.940 We're seeing this not the case.

00:22:36.600 Instead, Russian forces are getting perhaps more entrenched, although there's some supply

00:22:41.340 line issues.

00:22:42.180 Ukrainian opposition definitely getting more entrenched and getting support from various

00:22:46.520 Western nations.

00:22:47.740 What is the time horizon here in terms of what we're facing?

00:22:50.760 Are we facing something that could unfortunately be a months long invasion and certain insurgency

00:22:58.120 counterinsurgency?

00:22:59.460 What does the future look like right now on the ground?

00:23:01.960 I mean, this is the big question.

00:23:03.180 And, you know, if we're if let's say that, you know, military operations just allowed to

00:23:08.180 proceed at their current pace, then that could easily be, you know, months, weeks, months,

00:23:12.920 because, you know, Russian forces are making some significant advances, especially in the

00:23:17.400 south.

00:23:18.040 Yesterday, they seems like they captured their first major city in Ukraine, the southern port

00:23:23.380 city of Kherson, which is about 300,000 people.

00:23:25.900 And they've besieged now the southeastern port city of Mariupol, which is about 400,000, about 500,000

00:23:32.900 people.

00:23:33.480 So those are some serious advances.

00:23:35.540 But at the same time, you know, near Kharkiv and Kiev, they have made no real headway in

00:23:39.560 the last couple of days.

00:23:40.500 But the thing to watch, especially for me, I think, is how is this going to unfold in

00:23:47.180 Russia? 0.61

00:23:47.540 I mean, are they even going to be in a position?

00:23:49.880 Are they even going to be able to to continue persecuting this war with the way the economy

00:23:55.120 is going to absolutely collapse?

00:23:56.500 And even just critical materials, I mean, even just things like ammunition manufacture

00:24:00.700 and weapons manufacture, will they even be able to continue doing that as the full effect

00:24:05.740 of these absolutely basically being cut off from the world market continue to unfold over

00:24:10.620 the next couple of weeks?

00:24:12.220 We've already seen initial reports of various Russian tanks and different groups of forces

00:24:17.560 stopping shorter in their advance than they would like to because of fuel issues or other

00:24:22.280 concerns.

00:24:22.800 And I got to say, that sounds this early on kind of amateur hour when it comes to military

00:24:27.440 planning.

00:24:28.320 Yeah, I mean, I keep saying I think the way the Russians lose this war, if in fact it plays

00:24:33.960 out that way, is going to be morale and logistics, you know, with the main and the biggest example

00:24:40.840 of this being this convoy that's 40 kilometers long north of Kiev.

00:24:45.960 And at 40 kilometers, it's not a convoy.

00:24:47.480 It's a traffic jam.

00:24:48.300 And so and these these vehicles have been sitting there, you know, as the UK M.O.D.

00:24:54.960 said yesterday, we have seen no discernible progress in over three days.

00:24:59.040 And those vehicles are sitting there and it's zero degrees.

00:25:01.200 So you have to have to be running them about half the time burning fuel.

00:25:06.620 And once those vehicles are out of fuel, which will be soon, there's no good way to refuel them

00:25:10.680 all and get them moving.

00:25:11.620 And the Ukrainians are the Ukrainian jets are already hitting this column. 0.95

00:25:14.260 And, you know, this is just like a logistics catastrophe.

00:25:18.100 And that is really how a lot of these wars play out.

00:25:22.220 You know, strategies and tactics win battles, but logistics win wars.

00:25:27.560 Speaking about catastrophe, a refugee catastrophe that a lot of warnings that there's a lot of 1.00

00:25:32.680 refugees now flooding out of western Ukraine.

00:25:35.360 You're at the most western major city, Lviv, right now.

00:25:38.540 What are you seeing in terms of the refugee situation?

00:25:40.920 Yeah, absolutely.

00:25:42.400 And so we were at the border ourselves two days ago and the main crossing with Poland.

00:25:47.920 And as you get down there, there is a line of cars about 10 to 12 kilometers long all

00:25:53.180 the way up to the border.

00:25:54.700 And that, as people told us, that takes about three or four days to get through that if you

00:25:59.600 want to leave with your car.

00:26:01.080 If you want to leave on foot, if you're Ukrainian and you get to the border, you can go across 0.99

00:26:05.320 quite quickly.

00:26:06.540 But if you are, if you're not Ukrainian, you know, there's quite a large number of students

00:26:13.100 and workers from the Middle East, from India, from sub-Saharan Africa in Ukraine.

00:26:19.160 And these people are held at the border for, you know, as we saw there, they have been there

00:26:24.060 for days already and sleeping there outside, lack of food and water as both the Ukrainian

00:26:30.500 and Polish authorities are hesitant to process them.

00:26:34.420 They don't have the correct documents or some combination of that.

00:26:37.120 So that is becoming a big problem.

00:26:38.960 So here we're hearing accusations of racism at the border when it comes to refugees crossing

00:26:43.980 from Ukraine into Poland, a few African nations discussing this and it's making its way into

00:26:49.920 various media reports.

00:26:51.480 Is this a question of people just not having the right documentation or do you believe there

00:26:55.480 is either overt or at least sort of implicit racism going on in these border policies?

00:27:01.180 I mean, it's hard to say.

00:27:02.320 I have not looked into it super closely.

00:27:04.660 I'm sure it's a combination of the two, you know, where people from with countries that

00:27:08.800 are not visa free to Schengen cannot get across so easily and the procedures have not been

00:27:14.160 waived for them.

00:27:15.200 But at the same time, too, you know, the border guards, both on the Polish and Ukrainian side

00:27:19.140 can certainly be much rougher with people of darker complexions than they would be with 1.00

00:27:23.260 a white Ukrainian or if I was to cross.

00:27:26.340 So and the treatment for people of the European complexion will certainly be better.

00:27:34.220 So it's a combination of these issues.

00:27:36.080 Speaking of racism issues, Vladimir Putin, when he was announcing the military operation,

00:27:41.440 his original pretext, or at least one of the pretext is, was he's going to de-Nazify Ukraine.

00:27:46.840 And a lot of people did a double take and go, what on earth are you talking about?

00:27:50.220 I mean, the head of Ukraine, Zelensky himself, is a Jewish man.

00:27:54.140 What are you talking about?

00:27:55.580 Then again, I see a few years ago in the National Post a headline, our former conservative

00:28:00.000 government, are we arming neo-Nazi battalions in the Ukraine army?

00:28:04.220 And you go, what on earth is behind the headlines there?

00:28:06.180 And they've got this group, the Azov Brigade, which is believed to have some contingent of

00:28:10.440 neo-Nazis in eastern Ukraine.

00:28:12.680 What's going on with all of these allegations?

00:28:14.620 Because there's a lot of a lot of propaganda all across the board.

00:28:18.060 What should we make of that narrative?

00:28:20.700 I mean, sure.

00:28:21.560 There are groups that are either adjacent to or directly far right here, of course.

00:28:27.940 I mean, and the Azov Brigade itself has quite a bit of this symbolism and is also quite

00:28:34.060 popular, especially in the southeast, where they're engaged in fighting.

00:28:37.200 And it's one of the more popular paramilitary militia groups for volunteers to join.

00:28:43.720 But at the same time, you know, in elections in Ukraine, these groups have never surpassed

00:28:47.380 one percent of the national vote.

00:28:49.800 They're not a mainstream political force.

00:28:53.460 And they're not going to be, you know, of course, Ukraine is a city with, Ukraine is

00:28:58.440 a country with one of the largest Jewish populations on earth, including, as you said, the president.

00:29:03.380 And there are Jewish militias fighting in the city of Dnepro against the Russian invading

00:29:10.800 forces.

00:29:11.140 So the whole narrative, the Nazification is just this bizarre claim from and just this

00:29:18.200 this this the latest a long attempt, string of attempts to find some flimsy pretext for

00:29:24.500 the Russians to launch their invasion. 0.66

00:29:26.880 Neil, there's a lot of calls for action here in the West, a lot of perspectives on what should

00:29:31.900 happen next, how this should unfold.

00:29:33.920 You've got the on the ground perspective.

00:29:35.780 You've also got the academic expertise in terms of Eastern European affairs.

00:29:39.340 What is the what would be your pragmatic best case scenario?

00:29:44.860 What do you think is going to happen in the next few weeks?

00:29:48.060 Pragmatic best case scenario, I think, is that, you know, the Russian war effort just continues

00:29:52.440 to collapse.

00:29:54.460 And in terms of the issues with morale and logistics only getting worse.

00:29:59.020 And, you know, the fact that it's easy to block real information in Russia from getting

00:30:03.160 to people and people are only fed state propaganda.

00:30:06.040 But at the same time, if when people wake up and they go to withdraw their paycheck and

00:30:10.960 it's suddenly worth half as much as it was a week ago, then they'll then they realize

00:30:13.900 something's up.

00:30:15.160 And the hope is that that will translate to some sort of, you know, mass crisis and mass

00:30:19.900 dissatisfaction that Putin will not be able to survive.

00:30:23.040 And the military balance of play is such that, you know, the Ukrainian forces have received

00:30:27.360 such a so many of these really impactful weapons.

00:30:30.880 You know, the anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles sold in the last few days that that will enable

00:30:37.100 them to exact even more damage than they already are on the Russian forces and blunt the attack.

00:30:43.960 So I think that the ideal scenario is that Russia's Putin's war machine here itself just

00:30:50.000 collapses on the home front the next few weeks.

00:30:53.460 So what happens to Putin?

00:30:54.860 Because while it would be good for them to fail, of course, I don't think failure, at least

00:30:58.860 on a grand scale is something Putin is used to.

00:31:01.220 And it's better for global stability that none of this be happening in Ukraine.

00:31:05.300 But it's also not good for global stability that you have a dictator of a superpower with

00:31:09.940 nuclear weapons who suddenly feels like he's a rat in a corner, whether it's with, you know,

00:31:14.960 Western nations, Ukraine or even his own oligarchs.

00:31:17.480 So how does Putin respond to that scenario?

00:31:20.080 I mean, that is the big question, right?

00:31:22.280 And this is something that we're truly beyond beyond the pale with and that we don't know.

00:31:27.980 There's no real precedent in modern Russian history for what would occur in this.

00:31:32.960 I think a lot of people think that the best thing would be some sort of palace coup where

00:31:37.700 enough of the other security elites in Moscow end up reaching this conclusion that we are

00:31:44.680 not, that Putin has lost it and under his leadership things are bad and only getting worse

00:31:50.140 and, you know, somehow overthrow him.

00:31:52.560 But the way that that would actually play out is we don't really know.

00:31:58.140 And that's the sheer fact of the matter is that, you know, mass public protests have never

00:32:04.180 really brought down a government in Russian history, even in the Bolshevik or revolution

00:32:09.920 or the end of the Soviet Union.

00:32:12.240 It was much more of an elite affair.

00:32:13.740 And so it's we're sort of in uncharted waters with all this.

00:32:19.000 Before we go, I want to ask your thoughts on how we engage and interact with the Russian

00:32:24.500 people moving forward here, because as many people have said, the grievance is with Putin.

00:32:28.840 It's not with regular folks in Russia.

00:32:31.420 Hockey agent Dan Milstein posted quite prominently on social media.

00:32:36.020 The Canadian Junior Hockey League will announce that Russian and Belarus and 16 and 17 year old

00:32:40.200 children would be banned from the upcoming draft.

00:32:42.740 Mr. Milstein writes, I am Ukrainian born and want peace.

00:32:45.660 I do not believe banning teenagers for something they do not control is the answer.

00:32:50.000 Here in Canada, there are already minor stories of of disagreements, skirmishes, even some violence

00:32:56.640 between people of Ukrainian descent, Russian descent, Russian descent.

00:33:01.200 What are your hopes for sort of moving forward peaceably in a way that avoids all of this?

00:33:06.160 Yeah, I mean, I saw that with the CHL.

00:33:07.800 And that's just so disappointing because, you know, I get the idea of punishing Russia 0.98

00:33:12.620 and sanctions as a whole, but against, you know, state linked companies and branches of

00:33:19.340 the state, not against 16 year old hockey players who now are going to be forbidden from coming,

00:33:25.000 being drafted by Canadian teams and coming over to their own.

00:33:27.540 You know, there's a there's there's a line that you have to draw between the Russian state

00:33:30.920 and then between just ethnic Russians as people, you know, there's 150, 200 million of them.

00:33:36.340 And you can't treat them as responsible for the actions of the state because that's the same logic

00:33:41.120 terrorists use. You know, the the people are responsible for the crimes of the regime.

00:33:45.240 So I think, you know, the the this talk of banning Russians from getting EU visas and everything

00:33:51.460 as is really, really awful and would be the the worst that you could do is to lock Russians there 1.00

00:33:58.140 inside the sinking ship.

00:33:59.660 That is the Putin's Russia as the economy continues to deteriorate. 0.69

00:34:03.800 And you have to give these people a way out.

00:34:05.520 You have to allow them to to to to get out of that situation if you want them to.

00:34:11.620 And especially if, as you're hoping, you know, they'll be out there risking their lives and

00:34:15.120 their freedom protesting against this war.

00:34:18.960 This has been a really informative, no spin conversation.

00:34:22.120 Neil Hauer, I appreciate you joining us, offering us this on the ground perspective and with your

00:34:26.620 expertise. Thanks so much.

00:34:27.840 Thank you so much for having me.

00:34:29.820 All the best.

00:34:31.360 Full Comment is a post media podcast.

00:34:33.480 I'm Anthony Fury.

00:34:34.260 This episode was produced by Andre Proulx, with theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:34:38.660 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:34:41.140 You can subscribe to Full Comment on Apple Podcasts, Google, Spotify and Amazon Music.

00:34:46.120 You can listen through the app or your Alexa enabled devices.

00:34:48.980 You can help us by giving us a rating or a review and by telling your friends about us.

00:34:52.780 Thanks for listening.

Full Comment - March 04, 2022

Report from inside Ukraine under attack

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript