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Summary
As Canadians sit down over Passover dinners, over Easter dinners, and just relaxing with family over the holiday weekend, there s bound to be a lot of election talk. But will it move the needle? Speaking with Daryl Bricker, the head of Ipsos polling earlier in the week, he said we should know by Wednesday whether this was going to change anything.
Transcript
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keep up with your evolving needs. With flexible coverage options from TD Insurance, you only pay
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for what you need. TD, ready for you. We've had the debates and now people across the country are
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mulling over what they mean, what the election means for them. Hello and welcome to the Full
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Comment podcast. I'm Brian Lilly, your host, and as Canadians sit down over Passover dinners,
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over Easter dinners, just relaxing with family over the holiday weekend, there's bound to be a
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lot of election talk, but will it move the needle? Speaking with Daryl Bricker, the head of Ipsos
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polling earlier in the week, he said we should know by Wednesday whether this is going to change
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anything. But let's break down the debate with the two people behind the Political Hack newsletter.
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You can subscribe to it at National Post. Stuart Thompson is the Ottawa Bureau Chief for National
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Post. Tasha Kierden, columnist, and both of you. Quick takes on the debate on, you can go with
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either one, but the English debate is the one that matters more to our audience and it is the most
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recent. Tasha, hot take, go. I thought the debate was a draw between the two frontrunners and the
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reason is that both of them spoke to their base, their voters. I don't think they convinced
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necessarily anyone. I thought it was more a confirmation of their ability, either of them
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to be prime minister and to answer to the concerns of their particular voter base. So I don't think it
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will change anything, but it may motivate people to get out there and vote so that they get their
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base out. Stuart? I think if I was scoring it, I would say that Pierre Polyev probably won,
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not by like a landslide or anything. But if you were Pierre Polyev and you had your idea of what
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you had to go out there and do, I think he basically accomplished that. Carney almost did.
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I think he was like in a probably a harder spot than Polyev because everybody was coming for him. And I
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think he's new and he was immediately irritable by the tone of the debate. And I think that was
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probably the only black mark for Carney is that his demeanor wasn't great, but he didn't have any
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huge screw ups. So the way I looked at it and put this in my column in the Toronto Sun is that you
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had two very different visions on offer. And it speaks to what I know Tasha has been talking about,
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and that is the two different candidates. And so you had Pierre Polyev offering hope and change,
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almost sounding Barack Obama-like from 2008. He's talking about hope for a better Canada.
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Mark Carney was talking about safety, security, fear of Donald Trump. And if you look at that
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Leger poll that they did for us at Post Media that we released during the week, what did it show?
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Two main motivators in this election, hope for a better future for Canada. People who were voting on
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that, 76% are going with the Conservatives. And fear of the future for Canada, based on Donald Trump,
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60% of people voting on that are going to Mark Carney. I would say that the only one that may move the
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needle, and it would be a slow move, depending on how the long weekend goes, is Polyev. We'll have to
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wait and see if it happens. I think Carney held his own, held his base, but Polyev, with that hope and
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change message, may have been able to make people give him a second thought as they're looking at the
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end results. So Brian, I both agree and disagree with you. I think that what to me this debate did
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was show that we have two candidates. We have two voter bases. We're both looking for, like you said,
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different things. One's looking for hope, one's looking for fear. The voter base that's looking
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for hope is younger. It is at the bottom of the socioeconomic scale, or it's tradespeople. People
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are being affected by some of the downturn, but who are also getting from Polyev these messages that he,
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you know, he wants to appeal to their issues, training and, you know, getting a house and all
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these things. They don't have something yet to protect. They hope they eventually do. Whereas Carney's,
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um, audience and you could tell this even, even just the way he spoke. I mean, he's intellectually,
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he's yards ahead of everyone else on that stage. When it comes to business language,
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uh, understanding how international mechanisms work. I mean, it was just very clear and he used
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language that was complex in some cases. I didn't even understand all of it. I had to look up some
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things after because, uh, you know, his audience though, he's speaking to people who would appreciate
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that. And those people are older. They're over 55. They are maybe retired on the verge of being
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retired. Uh, there are a lot of women in there who look to this and they're like, they're scared
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for the future. And they hope that he can protect them, give them security from, um, the menace that
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is Donald Trump and economic, uh, you know, upheaval. So I think both of them in that sense,
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I didn't, I felt both of them just consolidated their vote. But what it really tells me is that
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we're in a situation a lot like America, where they have a two-party system. We don't,
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but we have two parties and two polarities that are now dominating. And I think whoever gets
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elected, the other side is really not going to be happy. So part of why I say, I think that
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Poliev's the only one that could potentially move the needle. And I think Carney did play the right
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defense and, you know, may not have lost any, but the reason I think that Poliev may be able to gain
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ground is not just based on intuition and how I feel at the end of it, uh, but on the, the polling.
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And so I'll throw this out to you, um, and get your reactions to it. And then Tasha jump in after,
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if you may, and then I'll hand back first thing, uh, polling done prior. So we're all doing little
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Mark Carney, uh, imitations of three, three, three points. Weird way. Um, polling done before the
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debate, both Abacus and Ipsos had similar numbers and it was low forties expected Mark Carney to win
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the debate. And it was about 29, 30% thought Pierre Poliev would. A flash poll done by Abacus at the
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end asked the question, which leader did the most to win your vote? And it was 43% said Pierre Poliev,
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40% said Carney. When it was Carney scored best with those who only watched a very little bit of the
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debate. And Pierre Poliev scored 47% among those who watched the whole thing to Carney's 37%.
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Now we'll have to see how it plays out clips on social media clips on TV. Um, you know,
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what your aunt or uncle tells you about over, uh, some ham or lamb this weekend. Uh, what are your
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thoughts? Do, does either one of them have the potential? And then of course, 57% of NDP voters say
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they're willing to change their mind at the last minute. What does it mean for, for movement over
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the next few days, Stuart? Yeah, those are the two big variables that I'm paying attention to, which is
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Pierre Poliev's repeated attack last night was you are the liberal government. You're not Mark Carney
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and Justin Trudeau. You are the liberal government. And the people's perspectives on the liberal government
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changed in the last three months. And it was kind of a reset button for Carney. And I think the best
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hope that Poliev has is to say, look, it's all the same people. It's all the same policies. They put a
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new face on it and it's going to be the same stuff. And if he can sell that message, I think he's got a
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great chance because there is a little bit of a softness in those switchers. Those are conservative
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to liberal switchers that did that in the last three months when everything changed. The NDP vote is
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incredibly interesting also because that poll you mentioned from Leger that we did this week,
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also big chunk of the population has their second choice as the NDP. It's about a quarter of people
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say that. And I think that shows you that some there's some liberals still sympathetic,
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but they're parking their vote because of Trump. I just don't think that Jagmeet Singh did anything to
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win those people back this week. And if you are a conservative, you must be losing your damn mind
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watching Jagmeet Singh in that debate because not only was he ineffective, but all of his attacks
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were against Poliev, which maybe that makes sense because these lefty voters love a guy who attacks
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a conservative. But the interrupting the kind of juvenile little comments here and there,
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I just can't imagine that. Mark Carney was hugging him. He was hugging Jagmeet tight.
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You know, don't be too tough on Jagmeet because we want to keep their voters. It's 57% of NDP voters
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say that they're willing to change their mind. 31% of voters overall, though, I mean,
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this is part of why we're looking at a potential shift at the last moment is almost a third of the
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electorate says, yeah, maybe I'll change my mind. So they're up for grabs.
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Yeah, exactly. And, you know, I was speaking to Dan Robertson about this. He was Aaron O'Toole's
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campaign manager. And he'll always tell you, look, that last week of the campaign, man,
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you got to be ready for those NDPers who get spooked by a conservative and they shift to the
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liberals. And I think that that's something that normally does happen. But maybe that already
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happened. Maybe the spooked people have already been spooked and they've gone over and that's kind
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of solidified. And then there is maybe a chance they'll go back if things change or if the Trump
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stuff dies down or Pierre Polyev doesn't look quite as threatening as they thought he was a
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couple of months ago because he's being a little softer on the CBC or something like that.
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I think that so much of this could shift in the next week. And if I'm Pierre Polyev,
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I'm looking at a lot of external factors that I can't control. The one thing that he can control,
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though, is his demeanor and his ability to tie Carney to that 10-year liberal record.
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So Tasha, I have to ask you, I know you're in that, what did you call yourself last week,
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older woman leaning towards Mark Carney. But for years, you were involved in conservative politics.
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And you look at the poll trackers, the aggregators, 338 Canada has the conservatives at 38,
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five points behind the liberals at 43. Same with CBC's poll tracker. The Toronto Star's poll tracker
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has it 42 for the liberals, 40% for the conservatives. 40%, not enough to even come close to a minority.
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How frustrating must that be for the conservatives to be doing so well and not be able to
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grasp at power because the NDP has completely evaporated?
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It must be incredibly frustrating. But they do bear some of the blame for that. And the reason
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is that for two years, they've been denigrating the NDP because it propped up the liberals. And I get
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that. That made sense at the time. But at the end of the day, they should have thought strategically,
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is it good to suppress the NDP vote? Is that a smart move? No.
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They were. They were. But I think that their calculation was, uh, that they would take that,
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that the rest of it would stay with the NDP, right? They would take the working class
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and the progressives would remain with the NDP. Um, and that was a mistake because what they
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didn't think about, they didn't think of this scenario where Trudeau was gone. They did not plan
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for that. It is quite clear because if they had, they would have realized that someone else will be
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in the chair. And then maybe those progressives will say, oh, you know, uh, we can go there now.
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Um, so I, I, I just feel that this election now, the reason the NDP is low is yes,
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the Trump threat definitely, but there's also a bit of that conservative miscalculation. And I
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thought it was interesting how Singh kept attacking Polyev constantly. And I was wondering what is the
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strategy or why is he doing that? Why is he trying to destabilize Polyev? Um, is just to like anger
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vindictiveness. What is this? Cause I'm not sure you're going to get votes there. I think he was
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trying to get a rise out of Polyev. I think he was trying to make Polyev get angry and lose his
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mind on stage. Uh, have a moment that would, um, you know, alienate voters in general and maybe
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alienate some of those voters that the Tories have taken from the NDP, that they might come scurrying
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back. That didn't happen though. Um, but Singh came off as just, I found, uh, you know, totally
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unappealing quite frankly yesterday and desperate. Okay. We we've talked about conservative
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miscalculation. The liberals, we can't even talk about calculations from them. This is just,
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you know, pure lock in, in a lot of what's happened to them. But what do you think of, uh,
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Jagmeet Singh's miscalculation on taking down the Trudeau government while Justin Trudeau was still in
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office? I remember going over, he, he, he ripped up the agreement. I think we counted what 40 times or
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something that he said he ripped up the agreement back in September. I went to the event. Uh, I
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tried to get him twice. Uh, my colleagues from various media, from Radio Canada, from the Globe
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and Mail, we all tried to get him to say he would vote non-confidence and he wouldn't. He just kept
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saying he ripped up the agreement and then Polyev, uh, you know, rightly said, and then he taped it back
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up real quick. Um, do you think that the NDP is, or should be regretting their decision not to take
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down the Trudeau liberals when they had a chance? If they'd done it last September, let's say,
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or October or even December, they'd be facing a much different election right now. Wouldn't they?
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Yeah. I mean, that is, if you're the conservatives, obviously you've made some big mistakes, but at
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least you couldn't have brought down Trudeau by yourself. That was out of your hands. And if you're
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Singh, your fate was actually in your hands back then. You could have done this. You could have had some
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agency. And I think we were all, I'll admit as a journalist, I didn't see any of this coming.
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We thought that maybe Trudeau would resign and it would change things a little bit, but
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the sea change along with Donald Trump, I think surprised me. Um, and I think a lot of people,
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but Jagmeet Singh in that moment, he could have, we could have had a fall election. He could have
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been the progressive choice. They were a little bit, um, they could have been the official opposition.
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Yeah. I like, I mean, that was, that was in their hands. They were broke at the time and
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they probably were worried about an Ontario election that might sap some resources, but that
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kind of stuff, when you look at it now in hindsight, looks just piddly compared to what we're dealing
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with. So, um, these are the moments. These are when you find out about someone's political instincts,
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right? Like this, when you make a decision like this, um, that tells us, I think all we need to know.
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And I think Jagmeet Singh is going to pay the price with his political career.
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Yeah. So I'm the one that did the original story that calculated that because I kept seeing everyone
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make that claim online and I thought, well, okay, is there anything to this? I doubt there is.
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And then the Canadian taxpayers federation will actually track every MP. They, they, they have the
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formula. They know what it is. They can do the calculation. And so I talked to them and I said,
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okay, what would it be for Jagmeet? And they said, well, about 30 grand in the first couple of years,
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once he hits 55, but then it goes up. And by the time he's 65, it's this much year. And if he lives
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based on current estimates of how long he would, uh, a, an average man of his generation would live,
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it would be 2.2 million or whatever the thing was. And at that point I went,
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oh, I'd stick around an extra few months for 2.2 million down the road.
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That's, that's just self-interest. Who wouldn't?
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Cynical though you are, Brian, I think you might be right. Honestly, I think that they,
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theories of miscalculation that have benefited the liberals a hundred percent. Um, and, uh,
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I mean the, you know, the, the wild card in all this of course is Donald Trump and no one could
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really anticipate how big an effect it would have because I think no one anticipated that Trump would
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do all the things he did. His first term really paled in comparison to this one in terms of
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the speed of actions, the number of gets sort of blitzkrieg of stuff. And that's what counts for the
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fear that you mentioned is that fear factor because it's been so chaotic and the markets have been chaotic
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and responded negatively to what he's doing and there's no sign he's going to stop. So that's what,
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uh, that's what no one predicted. So you can't really blame every, you know, you can blame people
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over certain things, but I think for others, uh, no one really predicted this.
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Yeah. I mean, well, think back to November 5th through November 25th at November 25th was the first
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truth social post threatening Canada with 25% tariffs. There was a very different mood and vibe at
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Trump's re-election this time. And people were like, yeah, okay, well, he won. Yeah.
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We've been here. We've survived this before. And November 25th changed all of that. And he continues
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to change things. He's been quiet the last little while. Um, do either one of you, uh, I, you know,
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I got asked this question a bunch this week. Um, Katie Simpson from CBC asked if the president's
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mood had changed. And I, you know, I think we'd all been wondering about that. Is he staying quiet
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on purpose? And she asked that question, but I had a lot of people immediately saying, there you go.
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That's CBC doing, uh, uh, the liberals work once again. Yeah. I I'll stick up for Katie a little bit
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there because in the same week, um, the national post got together and we were like, what should we ask
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poly I have this week? And we said, let's get defund the CBC back on the agenda. Let's see if
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he's moved a little bit on that because Brian, he talked to you in December. He said, we're going to
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do it quick buddy. Yeah. And we were just wondering, we'd, we'd heard some stuff. The star wrote a thing
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saying he'd taken it off the agenda or at least backburnered it. Um, and we were just curious,
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is this a hundred day initiative? Are you going to do this super quick? And that, so this is a power
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that journalists actually have is that we were curious about this topic. We felt it was sort of
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a, you know, it was an indicator of, if, if he was trying to moderate his views, um, or if he was
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worried about sort of centrist Canadians right now who might be turned off by that. And we put that
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question on the agenda. Sometimes we get to do that and we can choose what we ask about. So I think, uh,
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Katie's question was fair. Um, it is, I mean, I think so as well. It's think about
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I was being asked nonstop. Is this on purpose? It's like, well, we've all kind of noticed he's
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been quiet. This kind of stuff though. This is the, you know, the, um, the media conspiracy
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narrative that also turns off the carny voters and solidifies their vote. It's interesting.
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A lot of these sort of. Oh, Tasha, hold on, hold on. I am constantly accused. I'm constantly
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accused of being part of a media conspiracy by carny voters. You really? You too?
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Yes. I just, I, uh, well, they don't like the, the, what they consider the right wing
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media. Yes. They don't, they don't necessarily call it a conspiracy. They just don't like it.
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They think that there's, uh, you know, forces of darkness at work kind of thing, but people
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on the other side, um, you know, who embrace a lot of conspiracy theories, the WEF, uh, you
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know, COVID vaccine conspiracy theories, a whole bunch of, there's a whole, you know, Ukraine
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conspiracy theories. There's a whole host of conspiracy theories and people in the same basket,
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they get the same algorithms and they are fed the same stuff. And that's, that can,
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that tinfoil hat stuff is what alienates a lot of the voters, the carny voter base who
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look at that and go, that's not my Canada. That's not me. I don't, I can't associate or
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relate to that or in quotes, kind of those people, you know what I mean? There's, there's
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actually a snobbery to an element here, I think. And that came out in the debate as well.
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To me is that there's a sophistication of language and a sophistication that carny embodies,
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um, that people will call elitist. And there's often that, you know, Polyev doesn't even have
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to say he's an elitist. When you see him, he hangs out with elites, but he didn't come from elitist.
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That's, that's the interesting thing is that he didn't have, he was in Trudeau who came from an
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elite background. He actually came from very humble background. Um, but people forget that because
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they look at him and say, well, he incarnates what we don't like. So this is why, again,
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I found this debate was revealed more almost about our, our electorate than about the two
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people. And I don't know if Polyev will move the needle with any of the so-called the, the carny
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voter, sophisticated voter base, if you want to call them that, because they looked at him and his
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repetition of endlessly repeating his slogans during the debate. I mean, I found it off-putting
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of the last liberal decade and all this, it feels childish. And, and it's, it's not something that
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is appealing. If you feel you want to be treated seriously as a voter, honestly, I find it very
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off-putting and, and I know other people do too. And they remark on it. They're like, why is he
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always talking? And he's saying the same little tiny, you know, two syllable words. Carnies is
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three syllable words, literally. So, you know, again, polarity is set in, in our country. And it,
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the question is how we mend that to me is after this election, how do you mend that? Because one side's
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going to win one side's not. And I'm going out on a limb and saying that there's absolutely
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nothing Pierre Polyev could do to win your vote over though.
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I think that what he could, could do if he, if he did had olive branch to what I would say are the
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more moderate conservatives, but it's clear that there's no interest in that. And that's what the
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debate too, I was looking to see, was he going to try and do a big tent in this debate or was he
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going to motivate his base? He did not go big tent whatsoever. So again, it's a sense that you're not
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wanted on the voyage. And if you're not wanted on the voyage, why would you support someone who
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clearly does not, is not interested or, or thinks that, you know, you are part also of some elite
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conspiracy? It's, it's again, I think that that is a deliberate choice they've made to, they thought
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win the election with 20%, you know, because they had all these people who hated Trudeau along for
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the ride. Now they're gone, those people, and they don't hate Carney. They don't hate him the same way
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they hated Trudeau. All right, let's take a break. And when we come back, we'll play some clips,
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get both of you to react to things that were directly said by the respective leaders, although
00:22:30.280
not Jagmeet Singh, because you can only play so much of an interruption. Back in moments.
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00:23:30.320
This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?
00:23:35.900
Where we unpack the biggest, weirdest, and wildest political moments in Canadian history
00:23:40.680
you thought you knew and tell you what really happened.
00:23:44.280
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00:23:55.080
Well, as we're recording this, advance voting has already started, and I've been getting
00:24:06.300
Stuart, you were saying in Ottawa, big lines for advance voting.
00:24:10.420
I don't know what that means in this election, though.
00:24:19.100
Um, I took my eight-year-old, my four-year-old, and they told us it was nearly an hour wait,
00:24:29.200
One is the enthusiasm one, which I think is the one I go to immediately.
00:24:32.660
Um, and then it's anyone's guess where that enthusiasm is going.
00:24:36.580
Um, the second one is this is a holiday weekend.
00:24:39.180
This is Easter weekend, and today is Good Friday.
00:24:41.380
And we had heard they were having trouble getting poll workers.
00:24:44.520
So this could just be they don't have enough people in these places, and, you know, the
00:24:49.360
people in the line are being forced to pay for it.
00:24:52.040
Uh, Tasha, you have any quick thoughts on that?
00:24:58.660
Usually, uh, you would go after work, but these people go in the middle of the day because
00:25:04.000
Um, I think, uh, I don't know about the poll, the poll shortage or poll staff shortage,
00:25:09.800
but I do think that I do think that, um, the conservative base in particular is very
00:25:14.900
I think that that is, and that's been a strategy too, is to get them out.
00:25:18.220
And I think that they will get out because they are people who are motivated for change
00:25:21.000
are more motivated than people who want a status quo by definition.
00:25:24.200
And I do think the liberal vote is a softer vote, um, because people are not as committed
00:25:31.420
And Carney also wasn't working crowds for two years like Polyev was doing.
00:25:35.240
I mean, these people went to rallies, they drove, they, they clearly, they care, they
00:25:40.380
So I think the conservative vote is, is more solid.
00:25:44.860
Maybe it's, you know, the ride, as you mentioned, St. Paul's was the, the, the, the switcher
00:25:49.380
riding that went conservative, um, less than a year ago with the by-election.
00:25:52.800
And it was a big surprise, uh, mainly due to advanced polling.
00:26:01.660
And that could be a factor again, then it's maybe the same people.
00:26:04.340
So I think, I think it's a combination of things.
00:26:06.320
Um, but you know, we'll, uh, we'll know when, when everyone's cast their ballot, Brian,
00:26:21.480
Maybe we do a live, uh, you know, podcast episode on, on, on the Tuesday morning.
00:26:26.880
Um, so let's play some of the, uh, some of the clips that, that happened.
00:26:32.940
And, you know, interestingly, this past week, Pierre Polyev went back to something he had
00:26:38.460
announced before and made it a highlight in the middle of an election campaign.
00:26:42.760
And at one point you would have seen liberals jump on this right away and attack because
00:26:48.220
it involves the charter of rights and Polyev's campaign policy is he will use the notwithstanding
00:26:55.420
clause to, um, make sure that people like Alexander Bissonnette, he's the example he keeps using
00:27:02.600
the guy behind the Quebec city mosque massacre, actually get consecutive sentences.
00:27:08.000
Liberals have often used, you know, anything that they see going against the charter very strongly.
00:27:13.520
And here's Polyev talking about that during the debate Thursday night.
00:27:18.460
We will use it to protect the charter rights of law abiding Canadians.
00:27:26.220
Mr. Carney seems to be very interested in the rights of criminals.
00:27:30.680
He says that it's dangerous for me to ensure that mass murderers stay behind bars for life.
00:27:37.400
You know, what's dangerous turning them loose on our streets.
00:27:40.820
I don't think you appreciate, sir, the chaos that is unfolding in communities in Toronto right now.
00:27:46.720
The police have been forced to tell people to just let people let the thief steal the car when
00:27:53.060
they break into the house, just take the keys, just let them take the keys so that you don't get hurt.
00:27:58.420
People are living in terror in many of our communities precisely because of the catch and release
00:28:03.560
bail law, C-75, which requires judges release the accused at the earliest opportunity under
00:28:13.960
Your every single member of your liberal caucus and your liberal cabinet voted in favor of this
00:28:20.220
bill, and they are all determined to keep it in place despite constant promises to the contrary.
00:28:26.560
Mr. Carney, Canadians deserve to live in peace and security.
00:28:30.920
That is the right that I'm fighting for, for a change.
00:28:40.820
He had his own position, which is very different, but I thought Polyev framing it as I am using
00:28:45.760
the charter to uphold charter rights, meaning section 33, the notwithstanding clauses in the
00:28:51.440
charter, and he's looking to uphold the rights of victims.
00:28:54.200
I felt like he neutralized that line of attack to a large degree.
00:28:58.480
You know, people who are, you know, never used the notwithstanding clause are going to be
00:29:03.820
outraged, and a lot of voters who it's not their driving factor are going to say, I don't
00:29:09.540
Well, how many voters have an opinion on the notwithstanding clause?
00:29:14.840
And I will tell you, the one area that I am actually pretty well sourced in as a journalist
00:29:19.360
is in, um, small C conservative law nerd, uh, the world.
00:29:24.260
And I know for sure these guys have been gunning for this, like this, that moment in last night's
00:29:31.340
debate is what they've been thinking about for a couple of years now.
00:29:34.760
They kind of, uh, let it out last year saying, we're probably going to do this notwithstanding
00:29:41.900
And actually the freak out they were expecting from the kind of left of center and law people
00:29:49.260
and the media and the pundits, they were excited about that because what it would do is put
00:29:56.540
And they have to kind of just defend this like weird clause in the constitution that probably
00:30:02.600
And then Paul Yev gets to say, I just want to put mass murderers behind bars for life.
00:30:09.260
The Supreme court won't let me, so I'm going to use this clause and do that.
00:30:13.580
And, um, this is one of those issues that probably pulls 70, 30 and Paul Yev's side.
00:30:18.320
And that was a moment, I think it was probably his best moment of the whole night was when
00:30:23.400
And Tasha, you pay attention to Quebec politics more than, than Stuart and I, although I pay
00:30:28.220
pretty good attention, but, uh, Blanchet has also been using Carney's view on the notwithstanding
00:30:35.100
clause over some Quebec bills related to language and, uh, and attacking him on that.
00:30:41.620
And, you know, what the Quebec government has done, I may oppose it, but it's very popular.
00:30:46.480
So he's kind of in this weird position of, you know, well, I'm going to oppose keeping
00:30:53.840
And he's got to explain, and I'm going to oppose this language law.
00:30:58.200
Um, it, is that why he's less strident than I would have expected?
00:31:04.040
Well, yeah, but it's like, um, I don't remember Vic Taves.
00:31:07.400
Uh, do you stand with us or with the child pornographers, right?
00:31:10.440
This was a famous line under Harper's government, um, where it was a question of, of bringing in
00:31:17.120
Uh, and I can't remember, it didn't use the, uh, the charter, but they were really, really
00:31:21.300
Um, and I think that was bill C 51 and I helped defeat it.
00:31:27.180
The idea though was if the opposition at the time, the liberals were going to say, no,
00:31:31.640
we oppose this, this law, um, you're standing with the child pornographers, you're standing
00:31:36.280
And that was, they considered it a freedom of speech issue.
00:31:42.200
No, if you remember, they wrapped a whole bunch of stuff up into one bill.
00:31:46.000
They made this omnibus bill, put all kinds of things in it.
00:31:48.920
And yeah, it had stuff against child pornography, but it was everything else that folks like me
00:31:55.080
And I was on TV at the time beating the crap out of them.
00:32:00.160
You, you did not take the bait of stand against because then you'll be a child
00:32:04.500
In this case, that's, to me, this is the equivalent of that today is saying, well, if you, if you,
00:32:09.260
uh, oppose our idea, then you're, you're standing with the mass murderers.
00:32:12.940
Um, and that obviously is not something where any carny wants to stand.
00:32:17.580
Um, but at the same time, the counter to that is to say, no, no, no, no.
00:32:21.580
Um, you know, I didn't think he handled it properly.
00:32:23.920
I would have said, we have dangerous offender legislation in this country.
00:32:30.660
So whatever his name is, he's never getting out.
00:32:36.260
I don't want to say that, um, a sitting new Democrat MP was part of that massacre.
00:32:44.640
I've been like burning from midnight oil for like two days, covering the debates,
00:32:53.620
He actually will not get out under the current system, even though he has this 25 year sentence
00:32:57.860
because there's the dangerous offender provisions.
00:33:02.660
So everyone could back with saying, this is a red herring, frankly, that Polyev is using,
00:33:06.500
but the rest of the country doesn't know whatever.
00:33:08.640
The point is Carney should have said that he should have countered it.
00:33:11.280
Someone in his team should have said, this is, this is not necessary.
00:33:14.920
Uh, no mass murder has ever been released in this country.
00:33:28.680
Define which mass murder has gotten out, Brian.
00:33:42.900
There's several cases, including Danny Lorty at the national assembly years ago.
00:33:49.300
So sticking with crime though, Mark Carney wanted to say this week that you can't be tough on crime
00:33:56.500
He went back to the well of, uh, the gun buyback program.
00:34:01.300
Now, so after the Nova Scotia mass murder incident back in April, 2020 on May 1st, 2020,
00:34:10.160
they banned thousands of, of rifles and shotguns and said, you, you can't use them and we're
00:34:18.920
Well, um, we're less than, less than two weeks away from the fifth anniversary of that.
00:34:24.780
And all those banned guns are still in people's gun safes.
00:34:30.900
If I were the liberals, I would have just been quiet on this one, but they came back and
00:34:36.880
And, and here he is saying, well, we'll just do it better.
00:34:42.420
The liberal gun buyback policy, not considered a success by many people.
00:34:51.740
Yeah, I think, well, what we've seen with that, uh, that policy is some success at the,
00:34:56.500
at the commercial level, but not at the individual level, uh, because it hasn't been my opinion.
00:35:01.420
It hasn't been organized, uh, properly and it needs to be organized properly.
00:35:05.280
And, uh, instructed the minister of, uh, national, uh, security and public safety, uh, in order
00:35:11.860
I still would have stayed away from this and found another way to go with this issue.
00:35:14.680
The liberals always do very well playing on the gun issue.
00:35:17.540
But this is one where they tried to get Canada post involved.
00:35:21.920
They said, no, the RCMP has no resources to do this.
00:35:25.180
And the provincial police forces, like in Ontario and Quebec are just like, we're hands
00:35:29.480
Uh, this is your baby and we're not touching it.
00:35:35.920
Why, uh, say we're, we'll actually make the gun buyback program work five years after we
00:35:42.100
They have a candidate in Quebec who, uh, was one of the survivors of the massacre.
00:35:46.320
Um, they know in Quebec, this is very, very, uh, just the mention of guns is a very, very,
00:35:51.720
um, lightning rod type of issue, very divisive issue.
00:35:54.460
And, um, they are looking, they really, they do want to keep the lead they have over the
00:36:00.140
block in Quebec is very important to the liberals too, because if they're going to get a majority,
00:36:05.540
And that is Quebec and the GTA, uh, with some of BC thrown in, but really Quebec and the
00:36:13.120
It worked actually against Aaron O'Toole in the 21 campaign as well.
00:36:17.040
When the gun issue suddenly came out, the liberals worked it and they worked that angle.
00:36:24.000
They don't need to really fully explain anything.
00:36:31.800
Um, so I think that that's their wedge issue, right?
00:36:38.880
They just raise them as specters and they sort of zombie along and, and people get scared.
00:36:44.440
Low information voters is what you're saying to me.
00:36:51.900
Um, because again, uh, elections are one, a lot on emotion.
00:36:56.620
People can bring out all the figures they want, but it's what you think that person is
00:37:01.000
going to do about something or what you are afraid of or what you hope for.
00:37:10.900
So I, I, I'm going to jump on one of my pet peeves, and this is the idea that everyone
00:37:17.880
Um, and, um, the, the liberals have said they will release one before, uh, the early voting
00:37:23.740
ends and everyone's going to have a fully costed platform, uh, perforate it and put it on
00:37:34.380
It is not, people don't sit there and read the platforms and go, Oh, well, I was going
00:37:39.480
to vote for this party, but did you see this line item in their 43rd page?
00:37:48.520
Nobody does that, but we all have this, this charade of a fully costed platform, which as
00:37:58.400
Stuart, why do we hound parties to release these?
00:38:01.100
It's just journalistic muscle memory at this point, I think.
00:38:05.100
Um, but I will, it's worth pointing out, Doug Ford didn't do that and has never been a big
00:38:14.340
And then you listen to his campaign manager and he's saying, you know, it's just, it's
00:38:17.600
not, this is not what people want from us anymore.
00:38:19.980
And I think it is also correct to say that people weren't reading it.
00:38:23.880
It really was just sort of a symbolic artifact of seriousness.
00:38:33.620
Well, it kind of started with, with Chrétien and the Red Book in 93, right?
00:38:39.400
I think actually if the tour, if the conservatives had a different leader, there would have been
00:38:46.220
But Pierre Polyev self-identifies as a policy wonk.
00:38:49.480
And I think that's very close to his heart is that he's a policy guy.
00:38:52.680
And I think he couldn't bring himself to not do a costed platform.
00:38:56.800
But I think in a normal world, maybe they would have thought, let's do what Doug Ford
00:39:04.560
And so the thought is, okay, so they're going to bring, I think both part, both campaigns
00:39:09.940
They decided they'd bring out some numbers at some point, but they're both dropping them.
00:39:13.640
I think this long weekend when no one's going to really pay attention.
00:39:16.700
And as Stuart pointed out, they're not going to be reading them afterwards.
00:39:23.120
Is somewhat appealing or they think it's appealing.
00:39:26.140
I think costed platforms went out in 2015 when Trudeau decided that you didn't need to
00:39:35.860
And ever since that, no, but ever since that, the NDP wanted to balance the budget.
00:39:44.920
So of course, you know, Doug Ford then is like, well, you know, in pandemic, well, you
00:39:52.080
Well, okay, here we are in 2025 and people, I agree, don't care as much anymore.
00:39:56.660
Well, this last election for Doug Ford, it was, well, it's Donald Trump.
00:40:08.840
Yves-Francois Blanchet talked a lot about Brookfield and Brookshield in the English debate.
00:40:18.400
But there was a direct question to Mark Carney about closing tax loopholes and the kind that
00:40:28.020
Maybe legal, but a lot of people saying, is it right?
00:40:34.040
Look, I think that what we need to do is undertake a comprehensive review of our corporate tax
00:40:41.220
system and do that on the basis of the right principles.
00:40:45.780
We've got to have fairness, transparency, sustainability, and competitiveness.
00:40:54.400
So we need a tax system, a corporate tax system, including being part of a international
00:41:03.680
And what amazes me there, Stuart, is he spoke for about 35, 30, 45 seconds.
00:41:25.440
And I think also this might be a sign of his political inexperience because I think he
00:41:30.480
probably thinks about it in, you know, the terms of the corporate guy at the boardroom
00:41:36.480
And I think that that is something he's going to have to deal with.
00:41:42.180
But, you know, this is one of those things is I don't think it fully lands as a political
00:41:49.500
We kind of saw this with Donald Trump, too, where I think most Americans, especially
00:41:55.140
We both sort of secretly want to be rich enough to have an account in Bermuda.
00:42:00.220
Like, I think that is something that I would love to have in my life is an account that
00:42:05.700
And I think there's a little bit of that going on there.
00:42:07.560
There is what I think he suffers from is that he just seems like the kind of guy who
00:42:13.280
doesn't understand the normal person's problems because he doesn't buy his own groceries.
00:42:20.680
He just happens to have lucked out that we're now in this election where that doesn't matter
00:42:29.500
And it's just one more sort of lucky bounce for the liberals this year.
00:42:36.920
We haven't talked much about the French debate, Tasha, but before I get your thought on the
00:42:40.500
Brookfield and the tax haven, there's a cute little moment in the French debate where they
00:42:45.640
asked, you know, what American products aren't you buying?
00:42:48.380
And there were a couple of mentions of strawberries.
00:42:50.760
There was crosstalk, so I thought Carney was one of them.
00:42:53.260
But when I listened back, no, he had just said he's not buying wine anymore.
00:42:56.360
But the NDP and the bloc making mention of strawberries because Carney said, I don't
00:43:04.820
Yes, he was asked by a French host in another French not debate program where, you know,
00:43:20.040
And he says, well, I don't buy, I don't buy my own groceries.
00:43:23.440
Like he didn't say he didn't never buy his own groceries, but he's prime minister.
00:43:31.920
He should have said, you know, just pick something.
00:43:34.480
And so he picked wine and alcohol again, wine and alcohol.
00:43:38.260
So who's, you know, that, he didn't just say alcohol, he said wine, didn't say beer.
00:43:45.340
So, um, again, um, not to stereotype, but his audience be like, yeah, I'm, I'm, you know,
00:43:52.160
I'm forgoing the Chardonnay from, from, uh, from Napa Valley.
00:43:56.160
I'm, I'm now getting stuff from Inniskillen or whatever.
00:44:00.200
It, the answer he gave on Brookfield about how it's helping people in Canada.
00:44:06.200
It's helping people with pensions because of the investment success it's had.
00:44:09.800
Again, that speaks to the cohort of people who can relate to pensions, retirement, um,
00:44:15.080
you know, having things to protect and that's his audience.
00:44:19.420
Um, so again, he, he, I think he, he, he thought he was convincing anyone on the other
00:44:31.060
So again, it's the two polarities, his, his voters, the question is whether they'll turn
00:44:36.620
That's really, to me, what I'm going to be watching on, on election day.
00:44:39.360
I mean, and in the lead up with the polls, are his voters going to show up in the same
00:44:44.120
way that Polyev's very committed voters are going to probably show up?
00:44:48.440
Well, I, I think, uh, hope and fear are two very strong motivators.
00:44:55.100
I guess it will depend on to the degree as we've discussed, uh, the last week or so,
00:44:59.840
uh, there's now a bigger cohort of voters below 55 than above millennials now bigger
00:45:11.140
Um, in politics, you talk about sword and shield issues, sword issues you attack with shield
00:45:17.140
issues you defense, defend against for the conservatives.
00:45:20.000
The environment is always a, a, a shield issue for the liberals.
00:45:24.620
They love to attack this clip of Pierre Polyev talking about how we could lower global emissions
00:45:32.720
more than what I think he said, two and a half to three times what Canada's total emissions
00:45:39.760
I thought this was a good, very good, uh, shield moment for Polyev to neutralize Carney's attempts.
00:45:47.840
Carney's got great bona fides on, uh, environmental issues and climate change.
00:45:53.140
Polyev kind of neutralized some of that with this clip.
00:45:56.220
It lands within our priorities of bringing home jobs while bringing down emissions around
00:46:02.720
Look, the reality is that if we push production out of our country to more polluting countries,
00:46:11.300
But that has been exactly the liberal approach with the anti-development law of C69 blocking
00:46:16.800
of 15 LNG export plants, uh, over the last 10 years, we have seen more of those jobs go
00:46:26.800
My plan will be to approve, for example, natural gas liquefaction and export.
00:46:32.960
If we sent our gas to India, for example, to displace half of their demand for electricity,
00:46:39.420
we could reduce emissions by 2.5 billion tons, which is three times the total emissions of
00:46:48.300
That's the way we bring emissions down and jobs up.
00:46:56.960
Uh, Tasha, was that something that if you're a committed climate change voter, you're going
00:47:02.340
green or you're going with Kearney, but if it's a, you know, I'm really worried about
00:47:07.980
I'm worried about Trump a bit and you know, I'm kind of, you know, climate change matters
00:47:18.440
I know the, you know, the sort of the, uh, export our LNG ethical oil, uh, arguments, the
00:47:23.680
kinds of things that, you know, Canada, Canada produces energy that is either cleaner, uh,
00:47:28.760
or more ethical than you get from the rest of the world places, you know, where there's
00:47:35.480
And, um, uh, in terms of, of, of carbon footprint.
00:47:38.980
I mean, I think that argument, I don't think with the really environmental crowd really holds
00:47:44.180
water, um, for other reasons, because they, they, they don't like Polyev for other reasons
00:47:50.200
I'm not talking about the environmental, you know, where that's your main motivator.
00:47:54.640
Like I said, if that's your main driver, you're, you're not with Polyev ever, but is it enough
00:47:59.480
for the people where it's like, Hmm, it's something I consider, but it's not my main driver.
00:48:04.640
I don't think it's driving anyone in this election.
00:48:06.280
To be honest with you, Brian, um, it is not a top five issue.
00:48:09.600
Um, I know he was trying to neutralize, mitigate, whatever.
00:48:12.640
I think that right now, um, the environment that they devoted a whole segment to climate.
00:48:22.600
It's not something people are thinking about, um, right now it's either bread and butter
00:48:29.040
And the environment, uh, for better or worse is taking a backseat.
00:48:37.180
Like, I don't think he's going to pull the hyper-progressive, you know, green voter who
00:48:45.260
There's some puree duo who are going to stay with the NEP.
00:48:49.680
Um, and I don't think Polyev by, by, you know, showing the sort of the Canada can be green
00:48:54.600
in this way, um, and make money and it's a great idea.
00:49:00.100
I don't think that's going to convince people either.
00:49:01.620
I just think, like I said, I think that, that chunk of the debate was a bit of a waste
00:49:07.740
Um, you know, we, I learned long ago that as soon when the environment is a top of mind
00:49:14.600
issue, it's because everything else is going well.
00:49:16.580
Talk to any pollster that's been in the game for a while.
00:49:20.560
So was that a good move by Polyev or is it a wash as Tasha says?
00:49:27.060
Well, I mean, he basically portrayed it as a pro growth, you know, pro Canadian energy,
00:49:31.360
the message, um, which I think is probably salient right now with Trump.
00:49:35.700
And I, I totally agree on the climate change stuff.
00:49:37.960
Like I wrote about this a few weeks ago, less than 1% of Canadians think it's their top
00:49:42.580
And even among people who care about it, the people who want to spend more than a hundred
00:49:47.420
bucks a year to solve climate change is vanishingly small.
00:49:51.180
So, um, this is more of a make the fat cats pay for it and fix it, um, kind of issue than
00:49:57.440
it is Canadians are ready to take on any kind of burden.
00:50:00.120
And, and I think that's what you saw with the carbon tax is that if this comes down
00:50:04.940
transparently on everyday Canadians, it's just not going to fly anymore.
00:50:10.900
We shall see how things play out over the next couple of weeks.
00:50:13.700
We'll see what polls start to shift Tuesday, Wednesday, and then that might tell us where
00:50:52.020
Imagine yourself inside a Boeing 767 operated by Air Canada.
00:50:59.720
You're traveling between Montreal and Edmonton.
00:51:02.300
And a couple hours into the flight, the comforting roar of its two jet engines suddenly stop and
00:51:13.100
Air Canada has confirmed the plane that landed at Gimli, Manitoba last Saturday ran out of
00:51:21.620
I regret to inform you that you're inside the Gimli Glider, one of history's only incidents
00:51:27.440
of a civilian airliner running out of gas in the middle of the sky.
00:51:32.080
And this happened because someone didn't know how to properly measure out enough jet fuel.
00:51:37.040
Now, I mention the Gimli Glider only to note that systems of measure are not just numbers
00:51:45.740
They might not be on par with language or religion, but they're ways of understanding
00:51:52.220
And if you screw with them, even with the best of intentions, you might get the occasional
00:51:59.020
Fortunately, in this instance, it miraculously worked out fine.
00:52:03.880
The pilots in control of this particular Air Canada flight just happened to be two of
00:52:08.900
the only people on Earth perfectly suited to safely bring down a crippled full-size airliner
00:52:20.260
The other one was a former Royal Canadian Air Force pilot who just happened to have served
00:52:25.600
at a Manitoba airbase that was now directly underneath them.