Full Comment - Say hello to the new Liberal-NDP alliance

00:00:00.000 Whether you own a bustling hair salon or a hot new bakery, you need business insurance that can

00:00:06.980 keep up with your evolving needs. With flexible coverage options from TD Insurance, you only pay

00:00:11.800 for what you need. TD, ready for you. We've had the debates and now people across the country are

00:00:21.280 mulling over what they mean, what the election means for them. Hello and welcome to the Full

00:00:25.620 Comment podcast. I'm Brian Lilly, your host, and as Canadians sit down over Passover dinners,

00:00:31.240 over Easter dinners, just relaxing with family over the holiday weekend, there's bound to be a

00:00:36.900 lot of election talk, but will it move the needle? Speaking with Daryl Bricker, the head of Ipsos

00:00:41.960 polling earlier in the week, he said we should know by Wednesday whether this is going to change

00:00:47.400 anything. But let's break down the debate with the two people behind the Political Hack newsletter.

00:00:52.740 You can subscribe to it at National Post. Stuart Thompson is the Ottawa Bureau Chief for National

00:00:58.320 Post. Tasha Kierden, columnist, and both of you. Quick takes on the debate on, you can go with

00:01:05.440 either one, but the English debate is the one that matters more to our audience and it is the most

00:01:09.600 recent. Tasha, hot take, go. I thought the debate was a draw between the two frontrunners and the 0.92

00:01:17.840 reason is that both of them spoke to their base, their voters. I don't think they convinced

00:01:22.180 necessarily anyone. I thought it was more a confirmation of their ability, either of them

00:01:27.220 to be prime minister and to answer to the concerns of their particular voter base. So I don't think it

00:01:32.560 will change anything, but it may motivate people to get out there and vote so that they get their

00:01:38.680 base out. Stuart? I think if I was scoring it, I would say that Pierre Polyev probably won,

00:01:44.940 not by like a landslide or anything. But if you were Pierre Polyev and you had your idea of what

00:01:50.220 you had to go out there and do, I think he basically accomplished that. Carney almost did.

00:01:56.040 I think he was like in a probably a harder spot than Polyev because everybody was coming for him. And I

00:02:01.380 think he's new and he was immediately irritable by the tone of the debate. And I think that was

00:02:07.620 probably the only black mark for Carney is that his demeanor wasn't great, but he didn't have any

00:02:12.580 huge screw ups. So the way I looked at it and put this in my column in the Toronto Sun is that you

00:02:20.000 had two very different visions on offer. And it speaks to what I know Tasha has been talking about,

00:02:27.520 and that is the two different candidates. And so you had Pierre Polyev offering hope and change,

00:02:34.040 almost sounding Barack Obama-like from 2008. He's talking about hope for a better Canada.

00:02:40.300 Mark Carney was talking about safety, security, fear of Donald Trump. And if you look at that

00:02:46.080 Leger poll that they did for us at Post Media that we released during the week, what did it show?

00:02:52.100 Two main motivators in this election, hope for a better future for Canada. People who were voting on

00:02:59.160 that, 76% are going with the Conservatives. And fear of the future for Canada, based on Donald Trump,

00:03:08.480 60% of people voting on that are going to Mark Carney. I would say that the only one that may move the

00:03:17.380 needle, and it would be a slow move, depending on how the long weekend goes, is Polyev. We'll have to

00:03:22.960 wait and see if it happens. I think Carney held his own, held his base, but Polyev, with that hope and

00:03:30.320 change message, may have been able to make people give him a second thought as they're looking at the

00:03:37.200 end results. So Brian, I both agree and disagree with you. I think that what to me this debate did

00:03:45.240 was show that we have two candidates. We have two voter bases. We're both looking for, like you said,

00:03:51.420 different things. One's looking for hope, one's looking for fear. The voter base that's looking

00:03:56.120 for hope is younger. It is at the bottom of the socioeconomic scale, or it's tradespeople. People

00:04:03.580 are being affected by some of the downturn, but who are also getting from Polyev these messages that he,

00:04:08.720 you know, he wants to appeal to their issues, training and, you know, getting a house and all

00:04:15.480 these things. They don't have something yet to protect. They hope they eventually do. Whereas Carney's,

00:04:21.420 um, audience and you could tell this even, even just the way he spoke. I mean, he's intellectually,

00:04:26.540 he's yards ahead of everyone else on that stage. When it comes to business language,

00:04:31.400 uh, understanding how international mechanisms work. I mean, it was just very clear and he used

00:04:36.100 language that was complex in some cases. I didn't even understand all of it. I had to look up some

00:04:40.780 things after because, uh, you know, his audience though, he's speaking to people who would appreciate

00:04:45.860 that. And those people are older. They're over 55. They are maybe retired on the verge of being

00:04:50.440 retired. Uh, there are a lot of women in there who look to this and they're like, they're scared

00:04:54.920 for the future. And they hope that he can protect them, give them security from, um, the menace that

00:05:01.540 is Donald Trump and economic, uh, you know, upheaval. So I think both of them in that sense,

00:05:06.060 I didn't, I felt both of them just consolidated their vote. But what it really tells me is that

00:05:10.180 we're in a situation a lot like America, where they have a two-party system. We don't,

00:05:15.320 but we have two parties and two polarities that are now dominating. And I think whoever gets

00:05:20.080 elected, the other side is really not going to be happy. So part of why I say, I think that

00:05:26.060 Poliev's the only one that could potentially move the needle. And I think Carney did play the right 0.99

00:05:30.840 defense and, you know, may not have lost any, but the reason I think that Poliev may be able to gain

00:05:37.300 ground is not just based on intuition and how I feel at the end of it, uh, but on the, the polling.

00:05:43.960 And so I'll throw this out to you, um, and get your reactions to it. And then Tasha jump in after,

00:05:49.260 if you may, and then I'll hand back first thing, uh, polling done prior. So we're all doing little

00:05:55.600 Mark Carney, uh, imitations of three, three, three points. Weird way. Um, polling done before the

00:06:03.780 debate, both Abacus and Ipsos had similar numbers and it was low forties expected Mark Carney to win

00:06:10.060 the debate. And it was about 29, 30% thought Pierre Poliev would. A flash poll done by Abacus at the

00:06:17.320 end asked the question, which leader did the most to win your vote? And it was 43% said Pierre Poliev,

00:06:24.820 40% said Carney. When it was Carney scored best with those who only watched a very little bit of the

00:06:32.020 debate. And Pierre Poliev scored 47% among those who watched the whole thing to Carney's 37%.

00:06:38.660 Now we'll have to see how it plays out clips on social media clips on TV. Um, you know,

00:06:44.100 what your aunt or uncle tells you about over, uh, some ham or lamb this weekend. Uh, what are your

00:06:50.980 thoughts? Do, does either one of them have the potential? And then of course, 57% of NDP voters say

00:06:57.340 they're willing to change their mind at the last minute. What does it mean for, for movement over

00:07:02.300 the next few days, Stuart? Yeah, those are the two big variables that I'm paying attention to, which is

00:07:07.100 Pierre Poliev's repeated attack last night was you are the liberal government. You're not Mark Carney

00:07:15.340 and Justin Trudeau. You are the liberal government. And the people's perspectives on the liberal government

00:07:20.980 changed in the last three months. And it was kind of a reset button for Carney. And I think the best

00:07:26.740 hope that Poliev has is to say, look, it's all the same people. It's all the same policies. They put a

00:07:32.580 new face on it and it's going to be the same stuff. And if he can sell that message, I think he's got a

00:07:37.940 great chance because there is a little bit of a softness in those switchers. Those are conservative

00:07:42.740 to liberal switchers that did that in the last three months when everything changed. The NDP vote is

00:07:49.300 incredibly interesting also because that poll you mentioned from Leger that we did this week,

00:07:54.260 also big chunk of the population has their second choice as the NDP. It's about a quarter of people

00:07:59.780 say that. And I think that shows you that some there's some liberals still sympathetic,

00:08:04.500 but they're parking their vote because of Trump. I just don't think that Jagmeet Singh did anything to

00:08:10.020 win those people back this week. And if you are a conservative, you must be losing your damn mind 1.00

00:08:16.180 watching Jagmeet Singh in that debate because not only was he ineffective, but all of his attacks 0.99

00:08:21.780 were against Poliev, which maybe that makes sense because these lefty voters love a guy who attacks

00:08:26.100 a conservative. But the interrupting the kind of juvenile little comments here and there,

00:08:32.580 I just can't imagine that. Mark Carney was hugging him. He was hugging Jagmeet tight.

00:08:37.060 You know, don't be too tough on Jagmeet because we want to keep their voters. It's 57% of NDP voters

00:08:46.420 say that they're willing to change their mind. 31% of voters overall, though, I mean,

00:08:50.660 this is part of why we're looking at a potential shift at the last moment is almost a third of the

00:08:58.100 electorate says, yeah, maybe I'll change my mind. So they're up for grabs.

00:09:02.100 Yeah, exactly. And, you know, I was speaking to Dan Robertson about this. He was Aaron O'Toole's

00:09:08.900 campaign manager. And he'll always tell you, look, that last week of the campaign, man,

00:09:13.060 you got to be ready for those NDPers who get spooked by a conservative and they shift to the

00:09:17.780 liberals. And I think that that's something that normally does happen. But maybe that already

00:09:24.100 happened. Maybe the spooked people have already been spooked and they've gone over and that's kind

00:09:28.180 of solidified. And then there is maybe a chance they'll go back if things change or if the Trump

00:09:34.260 stuff dies down or Pierre Polyev doesn't look quite as threatening as they thought he was a

00:09:38.420 couple of months ago because he's being a little softer on the CBC or something like that.

00:09:43.380 I think that so much of this could shift in the next week. And if I'm Pierre Polyev,

00:09:49.380 I'm looking at a lot of external factors that I can't control. The one thing that he can control,

00:09:54.580 though, is his demeanor and his ability to tie Carney to that 10-year liberal record.

00:10:00.900 So Tasha, I have to ask you, I know you're in that, what did you call yourself last week,

00:10:06.580 older woman leaning towards Mark Carney. But for years, you were involved in conservative politics.

00:10:13.460 And you look at the poll trackers, the aggregators, 338 Canada has the conservatives at 38,

00:10:21.060 five points behind the liberals at 43. Same with CBC's poll tracker. The Toronto Star's poll tracker

00:10:26.900 has it 42 for the liberals, 40% for the conservatives. 40%, not enough to even come close to a minority.

00:10:35.860 How frustrating must that be for the conservatives to be doing so well and not be able to

00:10:43.700 grasp at power because the NDP has completely evaporated?

00:10:47.140 It must be incredibly frustrating. But they do bear some of the blame for that. And the reason

00:10:52.980 is that for two years, they've been denigrating the NDP because it propped up the liberals. And I get

00:10:57.860 that. That made sense at the time. But at the end of the day, they should have thought strategically,

00:11:03.780 is it good to suppress the NDP vote? Is that a smart move? No.

00:11:07.860 Well, they were taking some of it for a while.

00:11:10.100 They were. They were. But I think that their calculation was, uh, that they would take that,

00:11:16.100 that the rest of it would stay with the NDP, right? They would take the working class 1.00

00:11:20.340 and the progressives would remain with the NDP. Um, and that was a mistake because what they

00:11:26.500 didn't think about, they didn't think of this scenario where Trudeau was gone. They did not plan

00:11:30.500 for that. It is quite clear because if they had, they would have realized that someone else will be

00:11:35.140 in the chair. And then maybe those progressives will say, oh, you know, uh, we can go there now.

00:11:40.020 Um, so I, I, I just feel that this election now, the reason the NDP is low is yes,

00:11:46.180 the Trump threat definitely, but there's also a bit of that conservative miscalculation. And I

00:11:50.980 thought it was interesting how Singh kept attacking Polyev constantly. And I was wondering what is the

00:11:56.580 strategy or why is he doing that? Why is he trying to destabilize Polyev? Um, is just to like anger

00:12:03.220 vindictiveness. What is this? Cause I'm not sure you're going to get votes there. I think he was

00:12:07.540 trying to get a rise out of Polyev. I think he was trying to make Polyev get angry and lose his

00:12:13.540 mind on stage. Uh, have a moment that would, um, you know, alienate voters in general and maybe

00:12:19.140 alienate some of those voters that the Tories have taken from the NDP, that they might come scurrying

00:12:23.620 back. That didn't happen though. Um, but Singh came off as just, I found, uh, you know, totally

00:12:29.620 unappealing quite frankly yesterday and desperate. Okay. We we've talked about conservative

00:12:35.460 miscalculation. The liberals, we can't even talk about calculations from them. This is just,

00:12:40.820 you know, pure lock in, in a lot of what's happened to them. But what do you think of, uh,

00:12:46.340 Jagmeet Singh's miscalculation on taking down the Trudeau government while Justin Trudeau was still in

00:12:53.140 office? I remember going over, he, he, he ripped up the agreement. I think we counted what 40 times or

00:12:58.900 something that he said he ripped up the agreement back in September. I went to the event. Uh, I

00:13:03.780 tried to get him twice. Uh, my colleagues from various media, from Radio Canada, from the Globe

00:13:08.660 and Mail, we all tried to get him to say he would vote non-confidence and he wouldn't. He just kept

00:13:13.700 saying he ripped up the agreement and then Polyev, uh, you know, rightly said, and then he taped it back

00:13:18.260 up real quick. Um, do you think that the NDP is, or should be regretting their decision not to take

00:13:26.420 down the Trudeau liberals when they had a chance? If they'd done it last September, let's say,

00:13:32.900 or October or even December, they'd be facing a much different election right now. Wouldn't they?

00:13:38.260 Yeah. I mean, that is, if you're the conservatives, obviously you've made some big mistakes, but at

00:13:43.860 least you couldn't have brought down Trudeau by yourself. That was out of your hands. And if you're

00:13:49.860 Singh, your fate was actually in your hands back then. You could have done this. You could have had some

00:13:54.900 agency. And I think we were all, I'll admit as a journalist, I didn't see any of this coming.

00:13:59.700 We thought that maybe Trudeau would resign and it would change things a little bit, but

00:14:03.540 the sea change along with Donald Trump, I think surprised me. Um, and I think a lot of people,

00:14:09.860 but Jagmeet Singh in that moment, he could have, we could have had a fall election. He could have

00:14:16.260 been the progressive choice. They were a little bit, um, they could have been the official opposition.

00:14:21.620 Yeah. I like, I mean, that was, that was in their hands. They were broke at the time and

00:14:27.300 they probably were worried about an Ontario election that might sap some resources, but that

00:14:32.980 kind of stuff, when you look at it now in hindsight, looks just piddly compared to what we're dealing

00:14:38.100 with. So, um, these are the moments. These are when you find out about someone's political instincts,

00:14:42.660 right? Like this, when you make a decision like this, um, that tells us, I think all we need to know.

00:14:47.620 And I think Jagmeet Singh is going to pay the price with his political career.

00:14:51.220 Tasha, biggest blunder. 1.00

00:14:52.260 Tasha. He'll have a pension.

00:14:54.420 Cause he, so he's okay.

00:14:57.940 Yeah. So I'm the one that did the original story that calculated that because I kept seeing everyone

00:15:04.020 make that claim online and I thought, well, okay, is there anything to this? I doubt there is.

00:15:10.660 And then the Canadian taxpayers federation will actually track every MP. They, they, they have the

00:15:15.860 formula. They know what it is. They can do the calculation. And so I talked to them and I said,

00:15:19.380 okay, what would it be for Jagmeet? And they said, well, about 30 grand in the first couple of years,

00:15:24.100 once he hits 55, but then it goes up. And by the time he's 65, it's this much year. And if he lives

00:15:30.260 based on current estimates of how long he would, uh, a, an average man of his generation would live,

00:15:37.140 it would be 2.2 million or whatever the thing was. And at that point I went,

00:15:41.300 oh, I'd stick around an extra few months for 2.2 million down the road.

00:15:47.060 Yeah.

00:15:48.980 Yeah.

00:15:49.380 That's, that's just self-interest. Who wouldn't?

00:15:52.260 Cynical though you are, Brian, I think you might be right. Honestly, I think that they, 1.00

00:15:57.220 theories of miscalculation that have benefited the liberals a hundred percent. Um, and, uh,

00:16:02.260 I mean the, you know, the, the wild card in all this of course is Donald Trump and no one could

00:16:06.180 really anticipate how big an effect it would have because I think no one anticipated that Trump would

00:16:12.500 do all the things he did. His first term really paled in comparison to this one in terms of

00:16:18.740 the speed of actions, the number of gets sort of blitzkrieg of stuff. And that's what counts for the

00:16:23.860 fear that you mentioned is that fear factor because it's been so chaotic and the markets have been chaotic

00:16:30.900 and responded negatively to what he's doing and there's no sign he's going to stop. So that's what,

00:16:36.820 uh, that's what no one predicted. So you can't really blame every, you know, you can blame people

00:16:41.060 over certain things, but I think for others, uh, no one really predicted this.

00:16:46.420 Yeah. I mean, well, think back to November 5th through November 25th at November 25th was the first

00:16:52.820 truth social post threatening Canada with 25% tariffs. There was a very different mood and vibe at

00:17:00.340 Trump's re-election this time. And people were like, yeah, okay, well, he won. Yeah.

00:17:06.100 We've been here. We've survived this before. And November 25th changed all of that. And he continues

00:17:15.540 to change things. He's been quiet the last little while. Um, do either one of you, uh, I, you know,

00:17:21.060 I got asked this question a bunch this week. Um, Katie Simpson from CBC asked if the president's

00:17:27.620 mood had changed. And I, you know, I think we'd all been wondering about that. Is he staying quiet

00:17:33.060 on purpose? And she asked that question, but I had a lot of people immediately saying, there you go.

00:17:38.180 That's CBC doing, uh, uh, the liberals work once again. Yeah. I I'll stick up for Katie a little bit

00:17:45.860 there because in the same week, um, the national post got together and we were like, what should we ask

00:17:52.340 poly I have this week? And we said, let's get defund the CBC back on the agenda. Let's see if

00:17:56.820 he's moved a little bit on that because Brian, he talked to you in December. He said, we're going to

00:18:01.700 do it quick buddy. Yeah. And we were just wondering, we'd, we'd heard some stuff. The star wrote a thing

00:18:07.620 saying he'd taken it off the agenda or at least backburnered it. Um, and we were just curious,

00:18:12.340 is this a hundred day initiative? Are you going to do this super quick? And that, so this is a power

00:18:18.100 that journalists actually have is that we were curious about this topic. We felt it was sort of

00:18:23.300 a, you know, it was an indicator of, if, if he was trying to moderate his views, um, or if he was

00:18:29.700 worried about sort of centrist Canadians right now who might be turned off by that. And we put that

00:18:35.940 question on the agenda. Sometimes we get to do that and we can choose what we ask about. So I think, uh,

00:18:42.900 Katie's question was fair. Um, it is, I mean, I think so as well. It's think about

00:18:47.940 I was being asked nonstop. Is this on purpose? It's like, well, we've all kind of noticed he's

00:18:53.300 been quiet. This kind of stuff though. This is the, you know, the, um, the media conspiracy

00:18:58.260 narrative that also turns off the carny voters and solidifies their vote. It's interesting.

00:19:04.100 A lot of these sort of. Oh, Tasha, hold on, hold on. I am constantly accused. I'm constantly

00:19:11.460 accused of being part of a media conspiracy by carny voters. You really? You too?

00:19:17.220 Yes. I just, I, uh, well, they don't like the, the, what they consider the right wing

00:19:22.180 media. Yes. They don't, they don't necessarily call it a conspiracy. They just don't like it.

00:19:26.020 They think that there's, uh, you know, forces of darkness at work kind of thing, but people

00:19:30.580 on the other side, um, you know, who embrace a lot of conspiracy theories, the WEF, uh, you

00:19:35.540 know, COVID vaccine conspiracy theories, a whole bunch of, there's a whole, you know, Ukraine

00:19:39.540 conspiracy theories. There's a whole host of conspiracy theories and people in the same basket,

00:19:43.540 they get the same algorithms and they are fed the same stuff. And that's, that can,

00:19:48.340 that tinfoil hat stuff is what alienates a lot of the voters, the carny voter base who 0.60

00:19:54.500 look at that and go, that's not my Canada. That's not me. I don't, I can't associate or

00:19:58.900 relate to that or in quotes, kind of those people, you know what I mean? There's, there's

00:20:03.860 actually a snobbery to an element here, I think. And that came out in the debate as well.

00:20:08.420 To me is that there's a sophistication of language and a sophistication that carny embodies,

00:20:12.740 um, that people will call elitist. And there's often that, you know, Polyev doesn't even have

00:20:17.300 to say he's an elitist. When you see him, he hangs out with elites, but he didn't come from elitist.

00:20:22.820 That's, that's the interesting thing is that he didn't have, he was in Trudeau who came from an

00:20:26.500 elite background. He actually came from very humble background. Um, but people forget that because

00:20:30.980 they look at him and say, well, he incarnates what we don't like. So this is why, again,

00:20:34.660 I found this debate was revealed more almost about our, our electorate than about the two

00:20:40.900 people. And I don't know if Polyev will move the needle with any of the so-called the, the carny 1.00

00:20:46.960 voter, sophisticated voter base, if you want to call them that, because they looked at him and his

00:20:50.920 repetition of endlessly repeating his slogans during the debate. I mean, I found it off-putting

00:20:55.660 of the last liberal decade and all this, it feels childish. And, and it's, it's not something that

00:21:01.500 is appealing. If you feel you want to be treated seriously as a voter, honestly, I find it very

00:21:07.100 off-putting and, and I know other people do too. And they remark on it. They're like, why is he

00:21:10.920 always talking? And he's saying the same little tiny, you know, two syllable words. Carnies is

00:21:15.540 three syllable words, literally. So, you know, again, polarity is set in, in our country. And it,

00:21:20.700 the question is how we mend that to me is after this election, how do you mend that? Because one side's

00:21:24.660 going to win one side's not. And I'm going out on a limb and saying that there's absolutely

00:21:29.920 nothing Pierre Polyev could do to win your vote over though.

00:21:34.620 I think that what he could, could do if he, if he did had olive branch to what I would say are the

00:21:42.320 more moderate conservatives, but it's clear that there's no interest in that. And that's what the

00:21:46.060 debate too, I was looking to see, was he going to try and do a big tent in this debate or was he

00:21:49.920 going to motivate his base? He did not go big tent whatsoever. So again, it's a sense that you're not

00:21:55.820 wanted on the voyage. And if you're not wanted on the voyage, why would you support someone who

00:21:59.560 clearly does not, is not interested or, or thinks that, you know, you are part also of some elite

00:22:04.720 conspiracy? It's, it's again, I think that that is a deliberate choice they've made to, they thought

00:22:12.120 win the election with 20%, you know, because they had all these people who hated Trudeau along for

00:22:16.780 the ride. Now they're gone, those people, and they don't hate Carney. They don't hate him the same way

00:22:20.840 they hated Trudeau. All right, let's take a break. And when we come back, we'll play some clips,

00:22:25.320 get both of you to react to things that were directly said by the respective leaders, although

00:22:30.280 not Jagmeet Singh, because you can only play so much of an interruption. Back in moments.

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00:23:55.080 Well, as we're recording this, advance voting has already started, and I've been getting

00:24:01.100 notices from Hamilton, St. Paul's in Toronto.

00:24:06.300 Stuart, you were saying in Ottawa, big lines for advance voting.

00:24:10.420 I don't know what that means in this election, though.

00:24:12.200 Um, well, can I offer a theory, Brian?

00:24:16.160 Sure.

00:24:16.620 Um, so we did actually go this morning.

00:24:19.100 Um, I took my eight-year-old, my four-year-old, and they told us it was nearly an hour wait,

00:24:22.520 and we bailed immediately.

00:24:23.420 So I have to go back.

00:24:25.100 I haven't done my democratic duty.

00:24:27.020 Um, so there's two theories here.

00:24:29.200 One is the enthusiasm one, which I think is the one I go to immediately.

00:24:32.660 Um, and then it's anyone's guess where that enthusiasm is going.

00:24:36.580 Um, the second one is this is a holiday weekend.

00:24:39.180 This is Easter weekend, and today is Good Friday.

00:24:41.380 And we had heard they were having trouble getting poll workers.

00:24:44.520 So this could just be they don't have enough people in these places, and, you know, the

00:24:49.360 people in the line are being forced to pay for it.

00:24:52.040 Uh, Tasha, you have any quick thoughts on that?

00:24:54.660 Oh, it could also be it's a holiday weekend.

00:24:56.240 People have time, right?

00:24:57.380 So they're going on a Friday.

00:24:58.660 Usually, uh, you would go after work, but these people go in the middle of the day because

00:25:02.120 they can, because it's day off.

00:25:04.000 Um, I think, uh, I don't know about the poll, the poll shortage or poll staff shortage,

00:25:09.800 but I do think that I do think that, um, the conservative base in particular is very

00:25:14.420 motivated.

00:25:14.900 I think that that is, and that's been a strategy too, is to get them out.

00:25:18.220 And I think that they will get out because they are people who are motivated for change

00:25:21.000 are more motivated than people who want a status quo by definition.

00:25:24.200 And I do think the liberal vote is a softer vote, um, because people are not as committed

00:25:30.420 to it.

00:25:31.420 And Carney also wasn't working crowds for two years like Polyev was doing.

00:25:35.240 I mean, these people went to rallies, they drove, they, they clearly, they care, they

00:25:38.780 want to come, they're going to vote, right?

00:25:40.380 So I think the conservative vote is, is more solid.

00:25:42.920 Um, so maybe those people are turning out.

00:25:44.860 Maybe it's, you know, the ride, as you mentioned, St. Paul's was the, the, the, the switcher

00:25:49.380 riding that went conservative, um, less than a year ago with the by-election.

00:25:52.800 And it was a big surprise, uh, mainly due to advanced polling.

00:25:57.420 Um, it was it then I, okay.

00:25:59.540 It was huge.

00:26:00.240 It was huge in the by-election.

00:26:01.660 And that could be a factor again, then it's maybe the same people.

00:26:04.340 So I think, I think it's a combination of things.

00:26:06.320 Um, but you know, we'll, uh, we'll know when, when everyone's cast their ballot, Brian,

00:26:10.840 we have to wait.

00:26:14.100 Well, election day is, uh, is a Monday.

00:26:18.080 That's when we normally drop an episode.

00:26:19.540 So we'll have to figure out something.

00:26:21.480 Maybe we do a live, uh, you know, podcast episode on, on, on the Tuesday morning.

00:26:26.880 Um, so let's play some of the, uh, some of the clips that, that happened.

00:26:32.940 And, you know, interestingly, this past week, Pierre Polyev went back to something he had

00:26:38.460 announced before and made it a highlight in the middle of an election campaign.

00:26:42.760 And at one point you would have seen liberals jump on this right away and attack because

00:26:48.220 it involves the charter of rights and Polyev's campaign policy is he will use the notwithstanding

00:26:55.420 clause to, um, make sure that people like Alexander Bissonnette, he's the example he keeps using

00:27:02.600 the guy behind the Quebec city mosque massacre, actually get consecutive sentences.

00:27:08.000 Liberals have often used, you know, anything that they see going against the charter very strongly.

00:27:13.520 And here's Polyev talking about that during the debate Thursday night.

00:27:18.460 We will use it to protect the charter rights of law abiding Canadians.

00:27:23.120 I'm interested in the rights of victims.

00:27:26.220 Mr. Carney seems to be very interested in the rights of criminals.

00:27:30.680 He says that it's dangerous for me to ensure that mass murderers stay behind bars for life.

00:27:37.400 You know, what's dangerous turning them loose on our streets.

00:27:40.820 I don't think you appreciate, sir, the chaos that is unfolding in communities in Toronto right now.

00:27:46.720 The police have been forced to tell people to just let people let the thief steal the car when

00:27:53.060 they break into the house, just take the keys, just let them take the keys so that you don't get hurt.

00:27:58.420 People are living in terror in many of our communities precisely because of the catch and release

00:28:03.560 bail law, C-75, which requires judges release the accused at the earliest opportunity under

00:28:11.560 the least onerous conditions.

00:28:13.960 Your every single member of your liberal caucus and your liberal cabinet voted in favor of this

00:28:20.220 bill, and they are all determined to keep it in place despite constant promises to the contrary.

00:28:26.560 Mr. Carney, Canadians deserve to live in peace and security.

00:28:30.920 That is the right that I'm fighting for, for a change.

00:28:34.740 How did that play for both of you?

00:28:36.480 Because Carney was not that strident on it.

00:28:40.820 He had his own position, which is very different, but I thought Polyev framing it as I am using

00:28:45.760 the charter to uphold charter rights, meaning section 33, the notwithstanding clauses in the

00:28:51.440 charter, and he's looking to uphold the rights of victims.

00:28:54.200 I felt like he neutralized that line of attack to a large degree.

00:28:58.480 You know, people who are, you know, never used the notwithstanding clause are going to be

00:29:03.820 outraged, and a lot of voters who it's not their driving factor are going to say, I don't

00:29:08.280 know.

00:29:08.940 Thoughts?

00:29:09.540 Well, how many voters have an opinion on the notwithstanding clause?

00:29:12.240 Probably a very small percentage.

00:29:14.840 And I will tell you, the one area that I am actually pretty well sourced in as a journalist

00:29:19.360 is in, um, small C conservative law nerd, uh, the world.

00:29:24.260 And I know for sure these guys have been gunning for this, like this, that moment in last night's

00:29:31.340 debate is what they've been thinking about for a couple of years now.

00:29:34.760 They kind of, uh, let it out last year saying, we're probably going to do this notwithstanding

00:29:40.520 clause, expect us to use it.

00:29:41.900 And actually the freak out they were expecting from the kind of left of center and law people

00:29:49.260 and the media and the pundits, they were excited about that because what it would do is put

00:29:54.440 the liberals off side of that.

00:29:56.540 And they have to kind of just defend this like weird clause in the constitution that probably

00:30:01.340 people don't really know about.

00:30:02.600 And then Paul Yev gets to say, I just want to put mass murderers behind bars for life.

00:30:08.200 That's what I'm trying to do here.

00:30:09.260 The Supreme court won't let me, so I'm going to use this clause and do that.

00:30:13.580 And, um, this is one of those issues that probably pulls 70, 30 and Paul Yev's side.

00:30:18.320 And that was a moment, I think it was probably his best moment of the whole night was when

00:30:21.840 he got to bring that hammer down.

00:30:23.400 And Tasha, you pay attention to Quebec politics more than, than Stuart and I, although I pay

00:30:28.220 pretty good attention, but, uh, Blanchet has also been using Carney's view on the notwithstanding

00:30:35.100 clause over some Quebec bills related to language and, uh, and attacking him on that.

00:30:41.620 And, you know, what the Quebec government has done, I may oppose it, but it's very popular.

00:30:46.480 So he's kind of in this weird position of, you know, well, I'm going to oppose keeping

00:30:51.840 mass murderers in jail longer.

00:30:53.280 Well, why?

00:30:53.840 And he's got to explain, and I'm going to oppose this language law.

00:30:57.200 Well, why?

00:30:57.560 We love it.

00:30:58.200 Um, it, is that why he's less strident than I would have expected?

00:31:04.040 Well, yeah, but it's like, um, I don't remember Vic Taves.

00:31:07.400 Uh, do you stand with us or with the child pornographers, right?

00:31:10.440 This was a famous line under Harper's government, um, where it was a question of, of bringing in

00:31:15.260 tough laws on child pornography.

00:31:17.120 Uh, and I can't remember, it didn't use the, uh, the charter, but they were really, really

00:31:20.380 harsh.

00:31:21.300 Um, and I think that was bill C 51 and I helped defeat it.

00:31:25.160 Did you?

00:31:25.980 Okay.

00:31:26.340 Yes.

00:31:27.180 The idea though was if the opposition at the time, the liberals were going to say, no,

00:31:31.640 we oppose this, this law, um, you're standing with the child pornographers, you're standing

00:31:35.600 with people.

00:31:36.280 And that was, they considered it a freedom of speech issue.

00:31:38.740 That's probably why you opposed it.

00:31:40.120 Um, because it was, it was about, uh, art.

00:31:42.200 No, if you remember, they wrapped a whole bunch of stuff up into one bill.

00:31:46.000 They made this omnibus bill, put all kinds of things in it.

00:31:48.920 And yeah, it had stuff against child pornography, but it was everything else that folks like me

00:31:54.240 were opposed to. 0.82

00:31:55.080 And I was on TV at the time beating the crap out of them. 0.74

00:31:58.340 Okay. 0.89

00:31:58.720 Well, see, interesting.

00:32:00.160 You, you did not take the bait of stand against because then you'll be a child 0.98

00:32:03.760 pornographer, right?

00:32:04.500 In this case, that's, to me, this is the equivalent of that today is saying, well, if you, if you,

00:32:09.260 uh, oppose our idea, then you're, you're standing with the mass murderers.

00:32:12.940 Um, and that obviously is not something where any carny wants to stand.

00:32:16.440 It's a wedge issue.

00:32:17.580 Um, but at the same time, the counter to that is to say, no, no, no, no.

00:32:21.580 Um, you know, I didn't think he handled it properly.

00:32:23.920 I would have said, we have dangerous offender legislation in this country.

00:32:26.540 You can be designated dangerous offender.

00:32:28.160 And the reality is, boo, uh, Andre, uh, Bowie.

00:32:30.660 So whatever his name is, he's never getting out.

00:32:32.300 He isn't.

00:32:32.800 Everyone could back.

00:32:33.900 So I was, hold on, uh, Bisonette.

00:32:36.260 I don't want to say that, um, a sitting new Democrat MP was part of that massacre.

00:32:42.020 I'm so, I'm really tired.

00:32:44.640 I've been like burning from midnight oil for like two days, covering the debates,

00:32:48.120 ready with the debates.

00:32:48.980 It's a rate.

00:32:49.900 My apologies.

00:32:51.180 Um, yes.

00:32:51.840 So Bisonette is never getting out.

00:32:53.620 He actually will not get out under the current system, even though he has this 25 year sentence

00:32:57.860 because there's the dangerous offender provisions.

00:33:00.280 He is not going to ever get parole.

00:33:01.820 He's never going to get out.

00:33:02.660 So everyone could back with saying, this is a red herring, frankly, that Polyev is using, 0.79

00:33:06.500 but the rest of the country doesn't know whatever.

00:33:08.640 The point is Carney should have said that he should have countered it.

00:33:11.280 Someone in his team should have said, this is, this is not necessary.

00:33:14.920 Uh, no mass murder has ever been released in this country.

00:33:18.300 Like ever.

00:33:19.000 They have never gotten out early or ever.

00:33:22.200 So this is not necessary.

00:33:24.380 Actually, there's been several.

00:33:26.080 We, we, we've all pointed to several.

00:33:28.680 Define which mass murder has gotten out, Brian.

00:33:31.380 I've still in there.

00:33:33.440 Go through my X feed.

00:33:34.860 Okay.

00:33:35.260 Myself, Chris Selle, Terry Newman.

00:33:38.800 Chris Selle is a call.

00:33:40.420 No, we've pointed to the, the cases.

00:33:42.900 There's several cases, including Danny Lorty at the national assembly years ago.

00:33:47.420 Uh, but okay.

00:33:49.300 So sticking with crime though, Mark Carney wanted to say this week that you can't be tough on crime

00:33:55.360 unless you're tough on guns.

00:33:56.500 He went back to the well of, uh, the gun buyback program.

00:34:01.300 Now, so after the Nova Scotia mass murder incident back in April, 2020 on May 1st, 2020,

00:34:10.160 they banned thousands of, of rifles and shotguns and said, you, you can't use them and we're

00:34:18.100 going to buy them back.

00:34:18.920 Well, um, we're less than, less than two weeks away from the fifth anniversary of that.

00:34:24.780 And all those banned guns are still in people's gun safes.

00:34:28.080 They've never been able to figure it out.

00:34:30.900 If I were the liberals, I would have just been quiet on this one, but they came back and

00:34:34.600 they said, we're going to do it.

00:34:35.520 Carney was asked about it.

00:34:36.880 And, and here he is saying, well, we'll just do it better.

00:34:40.280 Roll clip.

00:34:41.280 Mr. Carney question for you.

00:34:42.420 The liberal gun buyback policy, not considered a success by many people.

00:34:47.540 So reviving it is in your platform.

00:34:50.060 Why would it work this time?

00:34:51.740 Yeah, I think, well, what we've seen with that, uh, that policy is some success at the,

00:34:56.500 at the commercial level, but not at the individual level, uh, because it hasn't been my opinion.

00:35:01.420 It hasn't been organized, uh, properly and it needs to be organized properly.

00:35:05.280 And, uh, instructed the minister of, uh, national, uh, security and public safety, uh, in order

00:35:10.960 to do that.

00:35:11.860 I still would have stayed away from this and found another way to go with this issue.

00:35:14.680 The liberals always do very well playing on the gun issue.

00:35:17.540 But this is one where they tried to get Canada post involved.

00:35:20.260 And they said, no, they asked the military.

00:35:21.920 They said, no, the RCMP has no resources to do this.

00:35:25.180 And the provincial police forces, like in Ontario and Quebec are just like, we're hands

00:35:28.880 off.

00:35:29.480 Uh, this is your baby and we're not touching it.

00:35:32.540 Why'd they jump into, into that Tasha? 0.98

00:35:35.920 Why, uh, say we're, we'll actually make the gun buyback program work five years after we

00:35:41.600 announced it.

00:35:42.100 They have a candidate in Quebec who, uh, was one of the survivors of the massacre.

00:35:46.320 Um, they know in Quebec, this is very, very, uh, just the mention of guns is a very, very,

00:35:51.720 um, lightning rod type of issue, very divisive issue.

00:35:54.460 And, um, they are looking, they really, they do want to keep the lead they have over the

00:36:00.140 block in Quebec is very important to the liberals too, because if they're going to get a majority,

00:36:03.300 there's two places they need those votes. 0.99

00:36:05.540 And that is Quebec and the GTA, uh, with some of BC thrown in, but really Quebec and the

00:36:09.880 GTA.

00:36:10.560 And so that is a big motivating factor.

00:36:13.120 It worked actually against Aaron O'Toole in the 21 campaign as well.

00:36:17.040 When the gun issue suddenly came out, the liberals worked it and they worked that angle.

00:36:20.840 They worked it well in Quebec.

00:36:21.880 So that to me is why they're bringing it out.

00:36:24.000 They don't need to really fully explain anything.

00:36:25.640 They just need to raise it.

00:36:26.480 Guns, guns, right?

00:36:27.700 Guns bad.

00:36:28.800 Um, and Tories like guns is the implication.

00:36:31.800 Um, so I think that that's their wedge issue, right?

00:36:35.260 Abortion is a wedge issue for them.

00:36:36.700 Guns are a wedge issue.

00:36:37.500 They don't need to really go into details.

00:36:38.880 They just raise them as specters and they sort of zombie along and, and people get scared.

00:36:44.440 Low information voters is what you're saying to me.

00:36:46.920 I think it's more a reflexive emotional.

00:36:49.280 Yeah.

00:36:49.640 And you love people don't do the digging.

00:36:51.900 Um, because again, uh, elections are one, a lot on emotion.

00:36:56.620 People can bring out all the figures they want, but it's what you think that person is

00:37:01.000 going to do about something or what you are afraid of or what you hope for.

00:37:04.120 Those are the motivating factors.

00:37:05.980 It's feelings as opposed to simply statistics.

00:37:09.280 Yeah.

00:37:10.340 Okay.

00:37:10.900 So I, I, I'm going to jump on one of my pet peeves, and this is the idea that everyone

00:37:15.160 has to have a fully costed platform.

00:37:17.880 Um, and, um, the, the liberals have said they will release one before, uh, the early voting

00:37:23.740 ends and everyone's going to have a fully costed platform, uh, perforate it and put it on

00:37:28.380 a roll.

00:37:28.780 It's not worth anything.

00:37:30.560 Um, voting is an emotional reaction.

00:37:34.380 It is not, people don't sit there and read the platforms and go, Oh, well, I was going

00:37:39.480 to vote for this party, but did you see this line item in their 43rd page?

00:37:44.980 Oh, I mean, the math is off.

00:37:47.140 I, I, I can't vote for them.

00:37:48.520 Nobody does that, but we all have this, this charade of a fully costed platform, which as

00:37:55.320 soon as they're elected, they never implement.

00:37:58.400 Stuart, why do we hound parties to release these?

00:38:01.100 It's just journalistic muscle memory at this point, I think.

00:38:05.100 Um, but I will, it's worth pointing out, Doug Ford didn't do that and has never been a big

00:38:10.600 fan of that.

00:38:11.740 And three elections in a row and he's won.

00:38:13.840 Yeah.

00:38:14.340 And then you listen to his campaign manager and he's saying, you know, it's just, it's

00:38:17.600 not, this is not what people want from us anymore.

00:38:19.980 And I think it is also correct to say that people weren't reading it.

00:38:23.880 It really was just sort of a symbolic artifact of seriousness.

00:38:29.160 Like, did this guy do a plan and do the math?

00:38:32.280 And that's really all it is.

00:38:33.620 Well, it kind of started with, with Chrétien and the Red Book in 93, right?

00:38:37.040 It was a novel thing.

00:38:39.000 Yeah.

00:38:39.400 I think actually if the tour, if the conservatives had a different leader, there would have been

00:38:44.500 a big discussion about not doing it.

00:38:46.220 But Pierre Polyev self-identifies as a policy wonk.

00:38:49.480 And I think that's very close to his heart is that he's a policy guy.

00:38:52.680 And I think he couldn't bring himself to not do a costed platform.

00:38:56.800 But I think in a normal world, maybe they would have thought, let's do what Doug Ford

00:39:00.360 did.

00:39:01.920 Your thoughts, Tasha?

00:39:03.480 Carney's an economist.

00:39:04.560 And so the thought is, okay, so they're going to bring, I think both part, both campaigns

00:39:08.060 assume the other would bring out some numbers.

00:39:09.940 They decided they'd bring out some numbers at some point, but they're both dropping them.

00:39:13.640 I think this long weekend when no one's going to really pay attention.

00:39:16.700 And as Stuart pointed out, they're not going to be reading them afterwards.

00:39:19.620 Anyway, it's the idea of a costed platform.

00:39:23.120 Is somewhat appealing or they think it's appealing.

00:39:26.140 I think costed platforms went out in 2015 when Trudeau decided that you didn't need to

00:39:31.260 balance the budget.

00:39:32.180 So why cost anything, right?

00:39:33.720 And people were like, yeah, it's okay.

00:39:35.860 And ever since that, no, but ever since that, the NDP wanted to balance the budget.

00:39:40.940 Mulcair wanted to balance the budget.

00:39:42.100 He lost.

00:39:43.100 And that spoke volumes.

00:39:44.920 So of course, you know, Doug Ford then is like, well, you know, in pandemic, well, you

00:39:49.700 never know what's going to happen.

00:39:50.580 How can we put numbers on it?

00:39:52.080 Well, okay, here we are in 2025 and people, I agree, don't care as much anymore.

00:39:56.660 Well, this last election for Doug Ford, it was, well, it's Donald Trump.

00:40:01.400 You never know what's going to happen.

00:40:02.520 Why put numbers on it?

00:40:03.740 Let's talk about Mark Carney and numbers.

00:40:08.840 Yves-Francois Blanchet talked a lot about Brookfield and Brookshield in the English debate.

00:40:16.060 I had a good laugh at that.

00:40:18.400 But there was a direct question to Mark Carney about closing tax loopholes and the kind that

00:40:26.120 Brookfield has benefited from.

00:40:28.020 Maybe legal, but a lot of people saying, is it right?

00:40:31.380 Should they be closed?

00:40:32.360 Here's Carney's answer.

00:40:34.040 Look, I think that what we need to do is undertake a comprehensive review of our corporate tax

00:40:41.220 system and do that on the basis of the right principles.

00:40:45.780 We've got to have fairness, transparency, sustainability, and competitiveness.

00:40:54.400 So we need a tax system, a corporate tax system, including being part of a international

00:41:01.160 minimum corporate tax through the OECD.

00:41:03.680 And what amazes me there, Stuart, is he spoke for about 35, 30, 45 seconds.

00:41:08.820 He said a lot of words and he said nothing.

00:41:12.480 He talked about, well, we need fairness.

00:41:14.920 We need equality.

00:41:15.800 We need sustainability.

00:41:17.460 What does any of that mean?

00:41:18.940 He just doesn't want to talk about this issue.

00:41:21.920 I get it.

00:41:23.020 Thoughts?

00:41:23.380 Yeah, I think that's right.

00:41:25.440 And I think also this might be a sign of his political inexperience because I think he

00:41:30.480 probably thinks about it in, you know, the terms of the corporate guy at the boardroom

00:41:34.640 who thinks it's probably fine.

00:41:36.480 And I think that that is something he's going to have to deal with.

00:41:42.180 But, you know, this is one of those things is I don't think it fully lands as a political

00:41:48.500 attack.

00:41:49.500 We kind of saw this with Donald Trump, too, where I think most Americans, especially

00:41:53.760 but Canadians, too.

00:41:55.140 We both sort of secretly want to be rich enough to have an account in Bermuda.

00:42:00.220 Like, I think that is something that I would love to have in my life is an account that

00:42:04.760 warrants that.

00:42:05.700 And I think there's a little bit of that going on there.

00:42:07.560 There is what I think he suffers from is that he just seems like the kind of guy who

00:42:13.280 doesn't understand the normal person's problems because he doesn't buy his own groceries.

00:42:17.600 He's kind of in that stratosphere.

00:42:20.680 He just happens to have lucked out that we're now in this election where that doesn't matter

00:42:24.560 as much.

00:42:25.000 The Trump thing has overshadowed all of that.

00:42:27.560 Relatability is less of a concern.

00:42:29.500 And it's just one more sort of lucky bounce for the liberals this year.

00:42:32.720 He doesn't buy his own groceries.

00:42:36.920 We haven't talked much about the French debate, Tasha, but before I get your thought on the

00:42:40.500 Brookfield and the tax haven, there's a cute little moment in the French debate where they

00:42:45.640 asked, you know, what American products aren't you buying?

00:42:48.380 And there were a couple of mentions of strawberries.

00:42:50.760 There was crosstalk, so I thought Carney was one of them.

00:42:53.260 But when I listened back, no, he had just said he's not buying wine anymore.

00:42:56.360 But the NDP and the bloc making mention of strawberries because Carney said, I don't

00:43:02.940 buy my own groceries.

00:43:04.820 Yes, he was asked by a French host in another French not debate program where, you know,

00:43:14.360 what he's giving up.

00:43:16.220 And he, the strawberries thing came up.

00:43:18.600 They said, do you eat strawberries?

00:43:20.040 And he says, well, I don't buy, I don't buy my own groceries.

00:43:22.560 I'm prime minister.

00:43:23.440 Like he didn't say he didn't never buy his own groceries, but he's prime minister.

00:43:26.720 He said, people do that now.

00:43:27.720 Like I can't go to the store.

00:43:28.960 And he's right.

00:43:29.580 You can't go to the store and buy it.

00:43:30.660 But he should have had a better answer.

00:43:31.920 He should have said, you know, just pick something.

00:43:34.240 Right.

00:43:34.480 And so he picked wine and alcohol again, wine and alcohol.

00:43:38.260 So who's, you know, that, he didn't just say alcohol, he said wine, didn't say beer.

00:43:43.080 He said beer, he said wine.

00:43:44.740 Right.

00:43:45.340 So, um, again, um, not to stereotype, but his audience be like, yeah, I'm, I'm, you know,

00:43:52.160 I'm forgoing the Chardonnay from, from, uh, from Napa Valley.

00:43:56.160 I'm, I'm now getting stuff from Inniskillen or whatever.

00:43:58.460 I mean, like, this is the thing.

00:44:00.200 It, the answer he gave on Brookfield about how it's helping people in Canada.

00:44:05.180 It's a success story.

00:44:06.200 It's helping people with pensions because of the investment success it's had.

00:44:09.800 Again, that speaks to the cohort of people who can relate to pensions, retirement, um,

00:44:15.080 you know, having things to protect and that's his audience.

00:44:19.420 Um, so again, he, he, I think he, he, he thought he was convincing anyone on the other

00:44:24.860 side that that Brookfield is okay.

00:44:26.720 Those people don't get that.

00:44:28.060 They see him, they go, oh, elitist.

00:44:29.480 And they just close their mind to it.

00:44:31.060 So again, it's the two polarities, his, his voters, the question is whether they'll turn

00:44:36.120 up.

00:44:36.620 That's really, to me, what I'm going to be watching on, on election day.

00:44:39.360 I mean, and in the lead up with the polls, are his voters going to show up in the same

00:44:44.120 way that Polyev's very committed voters are going to probably show up?

00:44:48.440 Well, I, I think, uh, hope and fear are two very strong motivators.

00:44:51.920 So, um, yeah, I think both sides will show up.

00:44:55.100 I guess it will depend on to the degree as we've discussed, uh, the last week or so,

00:44:59.840 uh, there's now a bigger cohort of voters below 55 than above millennials now bigger

00:45:04.640 than boomers.

00:45:05.920 All of these things are unknown factors.

00:45:08.520 Uh, okay.

00:45:09.180 Last clip.

00:45:09.860 And then we'll wrap up.

00:45:11.140 Um, in politics, you talk about sword and shield issues, sword issues you attack with shield

00:45:17.140 issues you defense, defend against for the conservatives.

00:45:20.000 The environment is always a, a, a shield issue for the liberals.

00:45:23.700 It's a sword issue.

00:45:24.620 They love to attack this clip of Pierre Polyev talking about how we could lower global emissions

00:45:32.720 more than what I think he said, two and a half to three times what Canada's total emissions

00:45:37.680 are by exporting our LNG.

00:45:39.760 I thought this was a good, very good, uh, shield moment for Polyev to neutralize Carney's attempts.

00:45:47.840 Carney's got great bona fides on, uh, environmental issues and climate change.

00:45:53.140 Polyev kind of neutralized some of that with this clip.

00:45:56.220 It lands within our priorities of bringing home jobs while bringing down emissions around

00:46:02.000 the world.

00:46:02.720 Look, the reality is that if we push production out of our country to more polluting countries,

00:46:09.080 it actually makes the problem worse.

00:46:11.300 But that has been exactly the liberal approach with the anti-development law of C69 blocking

00:46:16.800 of 15 LNG export plants, uh, over the last 10 years, we have seen more of those jobs go

00:46:24.860 abroad.

00:46:25.460 I want to bring them home.

00:46:26.800 My plan will be to approve, for example, natural gas liquefaction and export.

00:46:32.960 If we sent our gas to India, for example, to displace half of their demand for electricity,

00:46:39.420 we could reduce emissions by 2.5 billion tons, which is three times the total emissions of

00:46:47.360 Canada.

00:46:48.300 That's the way we bring emissions down and jobs up. 0.98

00:46:53.680 It's common sense.

00:46:55.180 And now it's time to bring it home.

00:46:56.480 All right.

00:46:56.960 Uh, Tasha, was that something that if you're a committed climate change voter, you're going

00:47:02.340 green or you're going with Kearney, but if it's a, you know, I'm really worried about

00:47:07.240 affordability.

00:47:07.980 I'm worried about Trump a bit and you know, I'm kind of, you know, climate change matters

00:47:11.960 to me.

00:47:12.540 Is that enough to neutralize it?

00:47:15.480 Uh, I don't necessarily think so.

00:47:18.440 I know the, you know, the sort of the, uh, export our LNG ethical oil, uh, arguments, the

00:47:23.680 kinds of things that, you know, Canada, Canada produces energy that is either cleaner, uh,

00:47:28.760 or more ethical than you get from the rest of the world places, you know, where there's

00:47:32.720 no human rights or, uh, just dirty practices.

00:47:35.480 And, um, uh, in terms of, of, of carbon footprint.

00:47:38.980 I mean, I think that argument, I don't think with the really environmental crowd really holds

00:47:44.180 water, um, for other reasons, because they, they, they don't like Polyev for other reasons

00:47:48.460 that are stronger than that.

00:47:49.740 And in this election.

00:47:50.200 I'm not talking about the environmental, you know, where that's your main motivator.

00:47:54.640 Like I said, if that's your main driver, you're, you're not with Polyev ever, but is it enough 0.98

00:47:59.480 for the people where it's like, Hmm, it's something I consider, but it's not my main driver.

00:48:04.640 I don't think it's driving anyone in this election.

00:48:06.280 To be honest with you, Brian, um, it is not a top five issue.

00:48:09.600 Um, I know he was trying to neutralize, mitigate, whatever.

00:48:12.640 I think that right now, um, the environment that they devoted a whole segment to climate.

00:48:19.020 I thought was ridiculous.

00:48:20.160 It's not, it's not a factor in this election.

00:48:22.600 It's not something people are thinking about, um, right now it's either bread and butter

00:48:26.600 or it's Donald Trump.

00:48:28.060 It's hope or fear.

00:48:29.040 And the environment, uh, for better or worse is taking a backseat.

00:48:33.060 Um, and you know, Carnegie's bringing it up.

00:48:35.160 I don't get that strategy either.

00:48:36.460 It's raising it.

00:48:37.180 Like, I don't think he's going to pull the hyper-progressive, you know, green voter who

00:48:42.060 hates elites.

00:48:42.700 Cause there are those people too.

00:48:44.100 They're, they're still going to stay.

00:48:45.260 There's some puree duo who are going to stay with the NEP.

00:48:47.720 Uh, he's not going to pull those people.

00:48:49.680 Um, and I don't think Polyev by, by, you know, showing the sort of the Canada can be green

00:48:54.600 in this way, um, and make money and it's a great idea.

00:48:57.960 The liberals are for their fault.

00:48:59.480 We're not doing it.

00:49:00.100 I don't think that's going to convince people either.

00:49:01.620 I just think, like I said, I think that, that chunk of the debate was a bit of a waste

00:49:04.920 of space.

00:49:06.280 So, Stuart, what about you?

00:49:07.740 Um, you know, we, I learned long ago that as soon when the environment is a top of mind

00:49:14.600 issue, it's because everything else is going well.

00:49:16.580 Talk to any pollster that's been in the game for a while.

00:49:19.260 They will tell you that.

00:49:20.560 So was that a good move by Polyev or is it a wash as Tasha says?

00:49:26.680 Yeah.

00:49:27.060 Well, I mean, he basically portrayed it as a pro growth, you know, pro Canadian energy,

00:49:31.360 the message, um, which I think is probably salient right now with Trump.

00:49:35.700 And I, I totally agree on the climate change stuff.

00:49:37.960 Like I wrote about this a few weeks ago, less than 1% of Canadians think it's their top

00:49:42.260 issue.

00:49:42.580 And even among people who care about it, the people who want to spend more than a hundred

00:49:47.420 bucks a year to solve climate change is vanishingly small.

00:49:51.180 So, um, this is more of a make the fat cats pay for it and fix it, um, kind of issue than

00:49:57.440 it is Canadians are ready to take on any kind of burden.

00:50:00.120 And, and I think that's what you saw with the carbon tax is that if this comes down

00:50:04.940 transparently on everyday Canadians, it's just not going to fly anymore.

00:50:08.540 I think all the leaders understand that now.

00:50:10.680 All right.

00:50:10.900 We shall see how things play out over the next couple of weeks.

00:50:13.700 We'll see what polls start to shift Tuesday, Wednesday, and then that might tell us where

00:50:19.000 we're headed to on the 28th.

00:50:20.560 Thanks both very much for your time today.

00:50:22.820 We'll chat again soon.

00:50:24.240 Thank you.

00:50:24.460 Thanks, Brian.

00:50:24.820 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:50:27.980 My name's Brian Lilly.

00:50:29.140 This episode was produced by Andre Proulx.

00:50:31.640 Theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:50:33.000 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:50:35.200 Please remember to hit subscribe.

00:50:37.140 Tell your friends about us.

00:50:38.240 Leave us a review.

00:50:39.240 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:50:40.700 Here's that clip from Canada Did What?

00:50:47.900 I promised you.

00:50:52.020 Imagine yourself inside a Boeing 767 operated by Air Canada.

00:50:57.560 It's July 1983.

00:50:59.720 You're traveling between Montreal and Edmonton.

00:51:02.300 And a couple hours into the flight, the comforting roar of its two jet engines suddenly stop and

00:51:08.680 most of the power cuts out.

00:51:10.000 Good evening.

00:51:10.920 It was a metric mix-up.

00:51:13.100 Air Canada has confirmed the plane that landed at Gimli, Manitoba last Saturday ran out of

00:51:18.900 gas because of an error in metric conversion.

00:51:21.620 I regret to inform you that you're inside the Gimli Glider, one of history's only incidents

00:51:27.440 of a civilian airliner running out of gas in the middle of the sky.

00:51:32.080 And this happened because someone didn't know how to properly measure out enough jet fuel.

00:51:37.040 Now, I mention the Gimli Glider only to note that systems of measure are not just numbers

00:51:42.840 on a page.

00:51:43.960 They're cultural objects.

00:51:45.740 They might not be on par with language or religion, but they're ways of understanding

00:51:50.740 the world around us.

00:51:52.220 And if you screw with them, even with the best of intentions, you might get the occasional

00:51:57.380 airliner falling out of the sky.

00:51:59.020 Fortunately, in this instance, it miraculously worked out fine.

00:52:03.880 The pilots in control of this particular Air Canada flight just happened to be two of

00:52:08.900 the only people on Earth perfectly suited to safely bring down a crippled full-size airliner

00:52:15.200 in the middle of Manitoba.

00:52:16.680 One of them was an experienced glider pilot.

00:52:20.260 The other one was a former Royal Canadian Air Force pilot who just happened to have served

00:52:25.600 at a Manitoba airbase that was now directly underneath them.

Full Comment - April 21, 2025

Say hello to the new Liberal-NDP alliance

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