The Conservatives’ post-election power struggle has begun
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Summary
With less than 24 hours to go until Election Day, the race is all but over. Stuart Thompson, Tasha Keridan, and Brian Leech break down the latest polls and give their predictions for who's going to win the election.
Transcript
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So we're in the final stretch and shortly hours after this podcast is released, we will
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Joining me once again to break down the election are the people behind the Political Hack newsletter.
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If you haven't hit subscribe already, please do.
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Stuart Thompson is the Ottawa Bureau Chief for National Post.
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Tasha Keridan is a columnist, commentator for the Same Set newspaper.
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And of course, I'm Brian Lilly, columnist at Toronto Sun.
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So guys, any excitement left at the end of this as we see polls narrow, momentums with
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the Conservatives, but is it too little too late?
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Honestly, I'm watching the leaders, you know, run around to the last place they go when
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we're trying to figure out, okay, does that mean this riding's in trouble?
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It's, you know, is this desire to save the furniture or is it winning ridings?
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But I think that there has been a tightening of the polls, a slight one.
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So that adds a bit of piquant to the whole thing is like, could there be a surprise?
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Though I don't think there will be, I don't think that we'll see a surprise in who forms
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government, but the size of the government, I don't think is a given for me.
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Yeah, I think the big number to look at right now is probably the Ontario polls and the
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They're still down there in a way that makes it really hard for them to form government.
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And I think at this point, unless those polls are wrong, it's going to be really tough for
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And now it's about stopping Kearney from getting a majority.
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Well, the latest numbers that we released from Post Media from Leger, our polling firm,
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Nationally, it's 43% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
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That's what Stephen Harper had to get his majority in 2011.
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Believe it or not, you would not know this by much of the media coverage, but Justin Trudeau's
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And some people will say, yeah, but they're tanking in Ontario.
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The Leger numbers, 40% for the Conservatives in Ontario.
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But the problem is that the Liberals are at 48% and the NDP is at 8%.
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That collapse of the NDP or the collapse of the Bloc Quebecois down to 25% in Quebec, incredibly
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difficult to analyze, to foresee, to be able to counter against.
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Whether you're Jean Chrétien or Stephen Harper or Justin Trudeau, you're getting a majority.
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And that wasn't, I will only say that was normal because you had Jack Layton heading
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That has never happened since and will never happen again, quite frankly.
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That's why the Conservatives with that percentage got a majority.
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The Liberals can get a majority with that percentage usually because their vote's more efficient.
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And the result is you don't have these splits in the GTA in particular that got Harper that
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So the Conservatives, I agree, they would need a much higher percentage because their vote
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When I'm looking at how it breaks down, Stuart, you know, we've talked a lot about this
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They ask things like, are you, do you have high school education, college education, university
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University education educated are more likely to vote for the Liberals than the Conservatives.
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But what's really interesting is labor force versus non-labor force and people that are
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not in the labor force, about six points more likely to vote for the Liberals.
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And then once you get into over 125,000 a year, so those making between 125 and 149 a year
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are voting for the Liberals 47% to 35% for the Conservatives.
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And over 150K a year are voting 52% for the Liberals, 36% for the Conservatives.
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I mean, what have we all been hearing our entire lives?
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The Conservatives only care about the rich, they're out there for the wealthy, Monopoly
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No, those guys are all voting for the Liberals.
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Once again, it's not the first time, won't be the last.
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Yeah, this is the Peer Polyev coalition is about people who the Canadian bargain isn't
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quite working out the way it was supposed to work out.
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And I always we knew that for a couple of years now that those people who wanted to buy
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a house, they were told when you're 35, you should have a full time job and you can buy
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People who I think thought health care should work a lot better.
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And they're saying, well, the government has taken in so many temporary immigrants that
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Those are the people that were saying Peer Polyev might be the guy to change that.
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And then this very interesting thing happened with Trump where all these people who thought,
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And now the status quo people are full of fear and motivation to vote.
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And I think that is kind of the story of this election is you had these two factions and
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And that was Carney's ticket to probably win on this evening on Monday night.
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The other day I was filling in on News Talk 1010 here in Toronto and was able to call up
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He's the CEO of Global Public Affairs at Ipsos, biggest polling firm in the world.
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Daryl is, you know, widely respected within the industry.
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And I said, are you guys in your industry, are you worried about a surprise with the polls
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tightening and the conservatives having some momentum going into the last week?
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Because they can only poll up to a certain point and then they have to stop.
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So I'll tell you, I'll summarize one thing that he said and then we'll play the clip of
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The one thing that he said is that we're all talking to these people and on a good day,
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You know, there's some projections that we'll have 70% voter turnout, which would be the
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So he said, at best, 30% don't show up or could be more.
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He said, if the people that say they're voting a certain way don't show up to one party or
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But then, and this is the clip we're going to play, he said that they, far more people
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And one of the things that we know, so in case anybody's wondering when elections get
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decided, increasingly it's in the last 72 hours.
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And the reason for that is because partisan attachment isn't what it used to be.
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But old election campaigns used to be about identifying your vote rate at the start because
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people really didn't change their mind very much and just reminding them that they had
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to show up and do what they always wanted to do, which was vote for your party when election
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People are making up their minds very late in the election campaign.
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And, you know, in most of our polls, and we do this globally, in the range of, you
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know, 5% to 10% actually make up their mind the day they're voting or actually in the
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And the momentum at the moment is on the conservative side.
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So that 5% to 10% that make up their mind on voting day, and I don't know who these people
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I mean, who wakes up on voting day and says, yes, I've been listening for all this time
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How those people break determines whether it's a liberal majority, a huge liberal majority,
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a liberal minority, or the best I think the conservatives can hope for now is if it all
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breaks their way, and that's a big if, then we're looking at a conservative minority.
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But to your point, Stuart, and we'll add into, you know, what Daryl just said to what you
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It's a lot of people that didn't vote before and probably aren't participating in polls
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and panels, which are to a degree self-selecting.
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So we could have a surprise, one way or the other.
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It could, I think the most likely outcome right now as things tighten is a liberal minority,
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but we could see a big liberal majority or the conservatives get the most seats.
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I mean, I think that there is always the potential for a bit of a surprise.
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And those voters, I guess the question I would have is, those voters, you said, oh, that
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they've been following things and then at the last minute they make up their minds like,
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I think some of those voters are voters who, people who haven't been necessarily paying
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attention, but maybe think that they want to vote, it's their civic duty to vote.
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And they go in that voting booth and they're like, okay, pick one, right?
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I don't know how informed in quotes or news following these people are.
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So I think that to me, what the tradition's been of who goes and shows up is old people,
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They made the difference for Obama in the US because they went out to the polls more.
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So it really, I think it's a question of demographic mobilization.
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This is a very polarized election along class lines, economic lines, generational lines.
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So, you know, numerically, there are more younger voters at this point than there are boomers,
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So in theory, in theory, you know, they could have the upper hand if they all showed up and
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But because, again, it goes back to the efficiency of the vote, I don't think it's enough for
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But, you know, that could be the surprise if those people.
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Another week of momentum like we've been seeing for the conservatives, and maybe they could be
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You know, more of these Viagra ads at the golf course.
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But lots of people mock all kinds of ads that aren't aimed at them and end up working.
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So, look, I'm not the demographic it's aimed at.
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I know you describe yourself as an older woman, Tasha, but I don't describe myself as an older
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I only bring that up because you have brought it up before.
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But, I mean, you know, interesting that they came out with those ads at the end.
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I was watching the Leafs Senators game the other night, and, of course, the Battle of
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Ontario is happening in the NHL, but really this election is the Battle of Ontario.
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The two parties are incredibly competitive in B.C.
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Conservatives, you know, dominating the prairies.
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We'll see how the splits go on that, and, you know, if the bloc has this resurgence.
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And so, in the most important hockey game in Ontario, you're seeing a battle of ads of
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And to me, those Harper ads are aimed at the same guys as that Golf Viagra ad.
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And it's to try and get the older male demographic back to them.
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I mean, I've heard the ad campaigns of both parties described as horrible this election.
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I don't know about your thoughts, Stuart, but do these Harper ads of him saying, hey,
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I'm the guy who did it, and trust me, does that change anything?
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I would say that is not that it's going to work, but I think it is their best hope.
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Because the people they're trying to reach are older men who probably voted for Harper
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two, maybe three times, and were definitely there in 2011.
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I talked to a conservative who said, you know the trouble, you know what we always hear is
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That line of attack actually does stick, particularly with those older men who see him as kind of
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a young upstart guy who kind of rubs them the wrong way.
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And I think Harper is supposed to be the antidote to that.
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And he's here to give him a reference to say, look, this guy worked really hard.
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I actually like him a little bit more than Carney.
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I don't know if it'll work just because the Trump thing is so all-consuming.
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And I know that for some, yeah, for those guys, especially those voters, those guys who
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their RSPs are full of stuff that's market exposed, and they're worried about that right
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If you're a conservative, though, you have to look at Ontario in particular and say, look,
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can we exist in this world where our entire electoral hopes hinge on how the NDP does?
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We a lot of this, I think if you're a conservative, I spoke to people halfway through the campaign
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who said, in a vacuum, everything went very smoothly.
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And it didn't do anything because everything that was taking us down was external.
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And I think that's, if you're the conservative, is a bad place to be because you don't control
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You need Jagmeet Singh to be good at politics before you get a majority.
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And we'll come back to that NDP thing in a moment because that's a big point.
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But Tasha, you know, those competing ads in the hockey game aimed at those 55 plus men.
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Stephen Harper was the one with the energy in them.
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And then you had Mark Carney, who had all the energy of an undertaker.
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And, you know, I've heard it described as a resume contest for this demographic that
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So why not have someone with a pulse narrate an ad about how great Mark Carney is?
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I mean, back to the fact that ads for both of them have not been great.
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Why not have someone narrate, Mark Carney was the man who did this in a world gone mad?
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I actually think the Harper ad is kind of paternalistic.
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I'm the grown up, but I can give him a reference here, Skippy.
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Like, honestly, I don't I don't think it's effective because I think it reminds me.
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Actually, Brian, people want to be put to sleep and keep their RSPs.
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That is actually the point for this demographic.
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The idea is that Carney is the man of a stress, the man of a situation.
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The man of a situation doesn't need someone to narrate for him.
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And so I think that that is what they're doing is that's what Carney's been.
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You know, he's he's been making tons of mistakes in his press conferences.
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He basically lies about how the conversation with Donald Trump went and people give him
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The guy is he's a new politician and he's trying and he but he's been around the block.
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He he worked with Stephen Harper, not for Stephen.
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He worked with Stephen Harper, not for Stephen Harper.
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And again, I think it goes to the demographic they're trying, which is older men will look
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And they have assets to protect and they don't trust Polyev to do it.
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And I think that's where these ads are coming at people from.
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I don't know how effective any ad is at this point, honestly, with like just, you know,
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But I think that's the theory is he's the crazy adult in the room.
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That is, I think, their theme from the beginning.
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I was talking with some Ontario conservatives and I don't want to get into the whole Doug
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I was even at a taping of The Curse of Politics, a live taping the other night.
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And Corey tonight did not take any shots at Pierre Polyev.
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I asked Corey how crazy it was going to get before the event and it did not get crazy
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But I was speaking with, you know, folks who were not on that but were part of the campaign
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and they just said, look, we had to be really cognizant of making sure that the NDP were
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not beaten down and, in fact, do some things to keep them around.
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I get going after Jagmeet maybe a year ago, even six months ago, and we can all say, yes,
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they were too effective in tying him to Trudeau's coalition.
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I doubt they could have seen that the Jagmeet Singh voters would go for the guy running Brookfield
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Asset Management, owner of 43 private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand.
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That just doesn't seem like a thing for a new Democrat to do.
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But, I mean, it really is the story of this election.
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I think that what the conservatives failed to do is two things.
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They wanted an election with Trudeau there, which is why they were pushing so hard for
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And Jagmeet Singh has now said, oh, well, you know, I didn't give it to them.
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People say that was his biggest strategic mistake is not calling an election before Christmas
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when the NDP would have probably done better because Trudeau would have been there.
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And he said, well, I did it because I didn't want a conservative majority.
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Isn't that a firing offense that you would torch your own party over this?
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He, after this election, Jagmeet Singh's obituary is already being written.
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But I got to say to you, and I will say this, on the record, in Ontario, people maybe aren't,
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maybe Corrie tonight's not saying anything, but people are already talking about leadership.
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I know personally people who have been approached by groups who are organizing without a candidate
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in mind specifically, but names are floating around saying we got to move on this.
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I mean, there's no reason for them to say I've been approached by other people.
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The names that are floating around are no secret.
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Like you said, Doug Ford is one of the names that people are thinking of.
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People who are unhappy and dissatisfied and are trying to look even beyond the election now,
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which is, to me, that I was shocked by that, too, because I'm thinking, you know, everyone is supposed to be so, so gung-ho on this.
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So to me, that's another story in this election.
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If the Liberals win a majority, Doug Ford is not running to be conservative leader federally because he cannot stomach the idea of being an opposition leader.
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I am not, like I said, it's not that Doug Ford is running.
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But it's a name that people have said, oh, well, why not him?
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The point is this, that they're floating around and people are putting their noses to the grindstone and doing the campaign work.
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That, to me, speaks volumes also about what this election is, which is the Conservative Party is fractured because people had such high expectations and they're not being met.
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I don't know if you heard this at Canada Strong and Free, Stuart, but I had Mark Mulroney, Ben Mulroney, Caroline Mulroney all put forward to me.
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I don't think any of the three of them are interested in running.
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Ben has told me directly that he has no interest.
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And Mark, for people that don't know Mark Mulroney, he's a banker at Scotiabank making really good money and going off skiing with his kids.
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What about that Tim Houston video, though, Stuart?
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Was that just a raw, raw Nova Scotia video or a, hey, there might be a job opening?
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I gotta say, it certainly took everyone's interest.
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But I'm a Nova Scotian and I don't think people realize how different a PC in Nova Scotia is from a Conservative in Alberta or even a Conservative in Ontario.
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It's culturally conservative in all the rural areas, probably more so than anywhere else in Canada, including Alberta.
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But then it also just has this different kind of progressive conservative vein that Tim Houston is a perfect example of.
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And actually, Daryl Dexter, the former NDP premier, was a good example of because these guys are all the same in Nova Scotia.
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Every premier is exactly the same ideologically.
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I certainly thought when I saw that video that maybe Tim Houston wants to give it a try.
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But as you said, I think this is maybe worth reiterating that being a federal opposition leader kind of sucks.
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If Mark Carney wins a majority, it's going to really suck.
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And right now, Doug Ford and Tim Houston are running provinces.
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So I am a little skeptical of premiers when they're bandied about here.
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But, I mean, the video was interesting and the timing was certainly interesting.
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Well, if there's a minority, that potentially changes things for maybe someone like a Tim Houston.
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He is, you know, again, he's the master of his domain.
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Like, why would he want to go into opposition even for a couple of years unless, you know, he sees that ambitious to do it?
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But I think that if there's a liberal minority, that changes things in terms of people who might want to take that role on.
00:23:40.380
When we come back, let's talk about the fact that platforms have dropped and question whether they matter at all.
00:23:53.800
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This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?, where we unpack the biggest, weirdest, and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew, and tell you what really happened.
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00:25:07.860
Tasha Stewart, since we last talked, all the major parties have released their platforms.
00:25:15.260
I've seen some polling that says conservatives look to the party platform when deciding who to vote for.
00:25:25.120
I actually hate fully-costed platforms because I think they're a lie from beginning to end.
00:25:34.000
I mean, Carney and Jagmeet Singh both released theirs on Saturday, and then there was all this criticism that Pierre Polly have waited so long to release his, like, what, two days later?
00:25:46.840
I'm not sure that platforms matter in the best of elections, and I really don't think they matter in this election, Stuart.
00:25:56.720
First of all, I mean, we now know that 7.5 million Canadians voted on the weekend, so they didn't have time to look at the platforms anyways.
00:26:03.660
And there was a huge batch of people who voted on Friday before they came out, and I also think that even if people had been giving weeks to read the platforms, you know, 0.01% of Canadians would have actually looked at the document, and a small percentage would have actually read news stories about it.
00:26:20.060
And I think those Canadians are right, because I agree with you, Brian, that this is all kind of BS, because most of those projections are torqued, and most of the fantasies around growth are just enough to pay for your tax cut.
00:26:34.840
And, you know, these things always tend to work out that way.
00:26:37.700
And also, it's worth noting, Polly Ev has said this as a criticism, but it is true that this is a Justin Trudeau platform that was given to Mark Carney.
00:26:46.620
I think it was Catherine Levesque, who works in your shop, who reported that it was Mona Forche, the MP for Ottawa Vanier, who drove this platform months ago, and then they just did, you know, Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V.
00:27:05.200
We're just going to give it to whoever the winner is.
00:27:06.840
This was on the day of the vote, the liberal leadership vote.
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And then when it came out, she sent a note to her volunteers saying, hey, we have this thing.
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And it kind of shows you the charade that's being played here, is that this is a document that was ready to go.
00:27:26.860
And I think probably a Mark Carney budget will be very different.
00:27:31.900
I mean, liberals don't seem bothered by the fact that he's going to blow past every single fiscal anchor that they've ever had, Tasha.
00:27:39.600
I know that you won't be bothered because you're worried about your RSPs and your home.
00:27:52.420
And it's disappointing to see this platform because, you know, a lot of people were thinking, oh, blue liberal, Mark Carney, banker, blah, blah.
00:28:00.740
And, you know, that sort of stereotype that he would be more prudent with the nation's finances.
00:28:04.820
And instead, this is a huge big spending budget that also includes a couple of, you know, sleight of hand measures, which is splitting operating and capital expenses into two buckets.
00:28:16.080
So your accounting looks better on the, you know, let's balance the operational side.
00:28:20.800
But the capital side could just rack itself up.
00:28:23.540
And the result is you're going to increase debt at a rate that's higher than a current ratio from to GDP.
00:28:32.780
And, you know, economists are weighing in on that already.
00:28:36.460
And it's but it's falling at a time when most people will not be paying attention.
00:28:43.660
Had it dropped earlier, the conservatives could have marketed this as a legitimate, you know, legitimate evidence that Carney is Trudeau is Trudeau is Carney on this.
00:28:52.720
They could have really run that for at least a week.
00:28:55.920
They would have been like, you know, here's the proof you've given it to us.
00:28:58.660
But they can't because it dropped during the Easter weekend and no one paid attention.
00:29:02.680
And then they dropped theirs and everyone paid attention to things they were going to cut.
00:29:06.640
And so they'd be busy defending that or discussing that and being accused of being Trump-like.
00:29:10.540
So at the end of the day, these platforms, like you said, also, you know, what will they mean?
00:29:15.580
There's so many unknowns, in particular, the rate of growth, which I think both of them are overestimating, quite frankly, and that the pace of tariffs, we don't know when they're going to come down.
00:29:24.420
So are they worth the paper they're written on?
00:29:26.940
Probably not, but they indicate, they give an indication of where these two parties would go and the two leaders would go.
00:29:33.400
And Carney is definitely going in the same vein that Trudeau has been going for the last decade.
00:29:38.660
I want to play a clip here of Carney reacting to criticism by economist Trevor Toome of the University of Calgary.
00:29:53.740
The current liberal government has cited his work many times to justify their plans or their spending.
00:30:01.140
But, you know, he is someone who's been critical of them as well.
00:30:04.200
And so Toome was being critical, saying they're dropping their fiscal anchors.
00:30:09.220
They're going away from the things they said that would guide them.
00:30:13.180
And when Carney was asked about this, I'm going to play the quick bit in French where the reporter says,
00:30:20.620
is Trevor Toome wrong, and those who can understand, like Tasha, will hear him say, yes, I know more than him.
00:30:31.840
And then Tom Perry from CBC, who is one of the nicest guys in the gallery, right up there with Stuart,
00:30:37.480
asks a follow-up, and Carney is dismissive and arrogant yet again.
00:30:49.080
I have more experience than he does, and it's important to state that.
00:30:59.100
If you've got an economist like Trevor Toome saying that your plan is unsustainable,
00:31:04.200
is just that, is there an argument that if Pierre Polyev is trying to bring down spending,
00:31:10.860
bring down the deficit, that his plan is more fiscally responsible than yours?
00:31:15.280
There's one thing that you can write on a paper.
00:31:17.280
There's another thing that will happen in the economy.
00:31:19.940
So our plan, to be clear, is focused on investment and growing this economy.
00:31:28.040
All of the spending, all of the investment in years three and four are for growing the economy.
00:31:38.260
Like economists can dispute, but if you're going to just give the back of the hand to an academic
00:31:45.120
who works with the government, who's been cited by the government, who is widely respected,
00:31:53.480
Can you imagine what question period it's going to be like if this guy becomes prime minister?
00:32:07.380
He has a tendency to arrogance that has come out in some of his interactions with media.
00:32:11.240
In this case, the lack of respect given to Trevor Toome, it is a side of him that is
00:32:20.100
If that was Trudeau's Achilles heel, it was arrogance.
00:32:29.640
I, you know, at this, again, will that make a difference at this point?
00:32:31.800
I mean, you know, I'm sure Trevor Toome didn't appreciate it, but voters that will wear on
00:32:39.020
And I don't think it's got enough time right now, and the stakes are just people are voting
00:32:44.140
But if you have years of that, yes, we know from Trudeau that that, after a while, gets
00:32:49.260
And look, I've heard the criticism, Stuart, that, well, Polly Eve is dismissive of media.
00:32:56.000
But generally, when Polly Eve has been dismissive of media, it's, you know, it's like that guy
00:33:03.100
in the apple orchard who was just showing up with questions like, uh, well, some say you're
00:33:11.460
Well, some say, well, you're taking a page out of Trump's book.
00:33:14.660
Like, he's pushing back against questions that are unfair or loaded.
00:33:20.420
This is just a, here's an economist that says this, how do you react?
00:33:28.520
It's an arrogance and aggressiveness that both he and Polly Eve can have, but that he, in
00:33:34.700
particular, does not enjoy any questioning or criticism.
00:33:39.620
Yeah, and it is worth actually looking at the content of the dispute, which is that Trevor
00:33:43.920
Fortuna was saying the fiscal anchors are gone, which is objectively true in this platform.
00:33:49.160
This is a platform that increases deficits beyond what even Justin Trudeau was going
00:33:53.960
So beyond what the PBO said Justin Trudeau's numbers would lead to.
00:33:57.620
Yeah, and I mean that you need to answer for that.
00:33:59.840
And Carney's response, I think, deserves more scrutiny.
00:34:03.460
And I think actually maybe this, I don't want to chalk this up to like Machiavellian political
00:34:09.620
strategy, but the dispute and the shot at Trevor kind of takes away from this actual discussion
00:34:15.280
about the content of his platform because Carney's response was, well, look at my resume.
00:34:20.580
Can't you tell from my resume that this, that I'm right about this and Trevor Toome is wrong?
00:34:24.520
When we're literally just talking about numbers that are on the page.
00:34:26.960
So I think it is bad, and I have heard from liberals that, you know, partly because Carney
00:34:32.340
has a tendency towards this, but partly because they believe the conservatives have given them
00:34:37.400
a little more permission to do this kind of stuff that they wouldn't dare do before because
00:34:41.640
they felt like it would come back on them harder than it does to Polyev.
00:34:45.440
And I think actually they're getting away with it.
00:34:48.260
Well, yeah, I think the Polyev orchard, I personally find his pushing back against reporters
00:34:55.280
in that context. He wants to be clever. And some people in his electorate appreciate that.
00:35:01.700
I do find it offensive, and I find it lowers the bar. And it gives permission exactly to get away
00:35:06.560
with stuff like Carney when he treats media badly, too. And Trump's the one who started this,
00:35:10.920
and he'll probably have to not start this. But in that respect, they're both, you know,
00:35:15.500
they're both letting the Sanders slip. You shouldn't do that. And if you don't like a question,
00:35:20.180
you don't put on the smarm and push back like he did.
00:35:24.240
You know, I've seen Trudeau Sr. push back at Famous Exchange where Pierre Elliott Trudeau
00:35:28.540
pushed back against, I believe it was Tim Rice, over the October crisis. And he questioned him
00:35:36.980
in a similar way. But it was just, it wasn't, it wasn't so facile. I'll say it was actually
00:35:43.340
intelligent. It was not facile and obnoxious, which I find, I find the Abel Orchard thing
00:35:50.360
Having been on the receiving end of politicians who don't like my questions, I can tell you that
00:35:56.160
Donald Trump did not start this. I was sent by an editor as a young reporter to question
00:36:01.400
Premier Lucien Bouchard with a very stupid question. And he made me feel about an inch tall
00:36:07.760
and made me shrink away. And I learned don't ask dumb questions. That's what I learned from that.
00:36:14.960
So I get what you're saying about lowering the bar. But I'll also say this, I don't have a problem
00:36:20.280
with any politician pushing back against dumb, bad, or loaded questions from journalists.
00:36:25.740
Yeah, but to find dumb question, when you attack, when you say the reporter, like Trump will say,
00:36:30.440
you know, your outfit is garbage. And I don't, you know, you guys are fake news.
00:36:35.840
The guy in the Abel Orchard just showing up and say, some people say you're like Trump.
00:36:44.240
Why is that a wrong question? People do say that.
00:36:46.220
Well, he quietly said who and how. And the guy couldn't say anything. Like, you've got to show up with
00:36:51.520
your ammo if you're going to ask a question. You've got to be able to back up your question.
00:36:55.740
And so, you know, we'll leave it at that because we've got to keep talking about the election
00:37:00.700
rather than who's worse to journalists at any given moment. As I said, I've been on the receiving
00:37:08.300
end from all kinds. So if we end up with anything but a majority government, somebody needs to find
00:37:14.420
a dance partner. And given the state of the NDP, it looks like if either of the two main parties form
00:37:40.860
hey, vote for me. I'm going to hold all the balance
00:37:45.320
That is what he's saying now. And he said it on Tout le monde en paille, which is the
00:37:48.840
most-watched French sort of political slash culture slash talk show every Sunday night
00:37:55.040
in Quebec. And he said basically, yes, that, you know, it's time to come home.
00:38:01.040
Cranny's got it. He's going to win. Time to come home and vote for the bloc. It's safe.
00:38:05.000
You know, you won't get a conservative government. You'll get a liberal government. But you need us
00:38:26.340
Yeah, well, this is funny. It's a common cause, right?
00:38:32.760
few they have to play because they will never form government.
00:38:34.740
But if they can be the NDP of the next few years,
00:38:36.800
well, look what the NDP got. A lot of stuff done
00:38:50.880
suppress the vote generally. Because if people think
00:38:54.720
at all. So they might not go out and vote for the bloc. They'll just stay
00:38:58.760
go out and vote for the liberals. Correct. Well, they
00:39:18.380
So I would argue no. But what are your thoughts?
00:39:39.980
And I will say it is looking, if it's a minority, it's looking very likely
00:39:46.540
And if Mark Carney was worried about fiscal anchors at all up until Saturday,
00:39:51.940
then I think that's going to also go out the window because that's just, it's just like the
00:39:55.720
governing with the NDP is the way you do it is by ponying up cash and policies and letting them do pet
00:40:02.300
projects. And I think that is, you know, if that's two years from, if that's the next two years is that
00:40:09.860
kind of stuff on Parliament Hill, then if you think the fiscal situation is bad now, it's going to get worse.
00:40:15.740
But both of you are saying this deactivates those voters.
00:40:20.120
That's the way the liberals are winning right now, is with extra support from the NDP and the bloc.
00:40:25.440
If those voters are deactivated, they're reduced to a minority, or the conservatives have a minority.
00:40:32.020
I mean, this is why this election is fascinating. As they say, it's why we play the game.
00:40:36.740
You got to, you know, you can't just say, the Chiefs are going to win on Sunday. You got to play the game.
00:40:42.040
Yeah. I'll just tell you, Brian, you may have heard this from Doug Ford's people, but I heard that
00:40:46.620
their internals were five or six points higher than what it ended up being on election day. And
00:40:52.040
they blame that almost entirely on that effect. People said, ah, they're going to win anyways. So
00:40:56.780
I'll just, I'm going to cook dinner tonight instead of voting. That's a big effect.
00:41:01.100
That and the NDP deciding to put all of their efforts into keeping incumbents,
00:41:07.700
which the federal party is now trying to do as well. They're not trying to,
00:41:11.880
to pick up anybody else. Okay. Last quick point. In the possibility that the conservatives form a
00:41:19.260
minority, they still have the same dance partner. Stephen Harper was successfully able in 2006 to
00:41:25.960
go between the liberals, the NDP and the bloc. If the NDP is reduced to nothing, he's going to have
00:41:32.120
the liberals who will not want to work with them and the bloc who are, you know, not going to want to
00:41:36.560
pass certain things. It's much more difficult, isn't it?
00:41:40.680
A hundred percent. It's going to be a shorter minority government. I think, um, the bloc will,
00:41:44.980
will look to see, they'll, they'll seize the opportunity, um, to make gains because I think
00:41:50.620
they're going to be reduced. Their numbers are going to be reduced as well in this election. Um,
00:41:54.380
you know, they, they were 33 when it closed right now, projections for seats are like 23, 25.
00:41:59.580
And Blanchet has said like, I'd love, you know, 25 is okay, but I love 35. He'd love to get more.
00:42:05.260
So I think for him, it would be a waiting game of opportunity and a shorter window than if you had,
00:42:11.380
um, uh, the, the liberals in there potentially. I don't know. I mean, the liberals are probably more
00:42:16.620
likely to make a deal with, with Blanchet because Blanchet just says he doesn't, you know,
00:42:23.440
Yeah, actually I spoke to a conservative in the war room about that and they said that, you know,
00:42:26.800
don't totally rule out the possibility of a pure hung parliament where you can't actually make a
00:42:32.360
deal. And then we go to the polls again in a few months. Um, that's how tough it could be for the
00:42:38.420
That's so bad for the country. That is a terrible thing, especially at this juncture when we need
00:42:42.100
to negotiate with the Americans, show strength. It's actually the worst outcome, frankly.
00:42:47.200
Gonna be a fascinating Monday. Uh, anybody that tells you it's over, um, you know, as I said,
00:42:53.440
this is why we have the elections. It's why we play the game. It's why we count every,
00:42:56.800
single vote. Thanks both of you for joining me throughout the election campaign. We'll probably
00:43:01.380
do this one more time to wrap it all up and we'll see the results on Monday night. Full comment is
00:43:07.360
a post media podcast. My name is Brian Lilly, your host. This episode was produced by Andre
00:43:11.560
Proulx. Theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin is the executive producer. Make sure that you're
00:43:16.440
hitting that subscribe button, whether you're listening on Apple, on Amazon, Spotify, wherever
00:43:21.420
you get your podcasts. Help us out by leaving us a review and tell your friends about us.
00:43:26.900
Thanks for listening. Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.
00:43:29.000
Here's that clip from Canada did what? I promised you.
00:43:40.720
Castro would end up occupying a space in the Trudeau family similar to that of a beloved uncle.
00:43:46.920
They went diving. They smoked cigars together. They gathered sea urchins for beach cookouts.
00:43:52.580
Informal talks at an island hideaway intensified their respect for each other and their mutual
00:43:59.400
enjoyment of skin diving added to the rapport. In addition to a well-publicized 1976 summit meeting,
00:44:06.600
Trudeau took three separate vacations to visit Castro after his time in politics had ended.
00:44:11.620
I can make, you know, just one reference to Pierre Trudeau's sons to show the closeness of the
00:44:22.000
relationship. The nickname that the Trudeau's sons had for Fidel Castro was Papa Fidel. So that gives
00:44:29.240
you an indication of the closeness of the bond that existed between a communist dictator, you know,
00:44:36.820
a thorn in the side of every American administration for the past 50 years and Pierre Trudeau.
00:44:43.380
When Trudeau's youngest son, Michel, died in an avalanche in 1998, Castro called the family in
00:44:49.920
tears to express his condolences. As an eight-year-old, Michel had referred to Fidel Castro
00:44:55.600
as his best friend. When Pierre died, Fidel declared three days of mourning in Cuba and flew to
00:45:02.040
Montreal to act as an honorary pallbearer. Every time Trudeau went down to Cuba, all the people in
00:45:09.560
South Florida, the, you know, the exiles were thinking, why is this Western leader giving comfort
00:45:16.240
to a murderous dictator, you know, who is oppressing their people in Cuba and saying, you know, good
00:45:22.220
things about Fidel Castro. And as I've mentioned, to have him in the pew at Trudeau's funeral in the
00:45:29.020
front row as, as a, as a, as a dignified person when he had been, he'd been such a, a brutal leader
00:45:40.220
says more about Pierre Trudeau than it does about Fidel Castro. Here's where we should probably touch
00:45:45.900
on what Castro had done and what he was continuing to do while going on beach vacations with the
00:45:51.300
Trudeau family. If you want to hear the rest of the story, make sure you subscribe to Canada