Full Comment - The inescapable implosion of Trudeau’s bizarro Liberal party

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00:01:15.600 The bombshell that was the Toronto St. Paul's by-election continues to reverberate throughout

00:01:30.280 Canadian politics, the Liberal Party of Canada in particular.

00:01:34.040 What does this mean for the Liberal Party's future?

00:01:36.440 Does it mean that Toronto is vulnerable?

00:01:38.880 Hi, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:01:39.960 This is the Full Comment Podcast.

00:01:41.420 And today we're going to look at what the by-election result means, where Trudeau may end up in the

00:01:47.640 future, and what's the future of the Liberal Party if and when somebody takes over.

00:01:52.800 Joining me today to talk about this is Andrew Perez.

00:01:55.680 He is a liberal strategist, former political staffer, someone who works in the communications

00:02:00.200 field and follows the issues closely.

00:02:02.700 Andrew, you're one of the people that has been advocating for the Prime Minister to step down.

00:02:08.400 Before I ask you your view on why Justin Trudeau should step down, let me back up and ask you

00:02:15.360 about the by-election from a week ago.

00:02:18.480 I was on record.

00:02:20.760 I thought Leslie Church, the Liberal candidate, was going to eke out a win.

00:02:24.680 And I thought, yeah, it'll be closer than the 15 to 20 points the Liberals normally win

00:02:31.440 by, but she's still going to win. 1.00

00:02:33.360 So even I was shocked.

00:02:35.320 Some Liberals had told me, no, we're going to lose.

00:02:38.200 Did it surprise you what happened in Toronto St. Paul's, the heart of Toronto, voting for

00:02:43.960 a Conservative?

00:02:45.660 Well, first, Brian, thanks so much for having me on your podcast.

00:02:49.000 Really happy to be here.

00:02:49.940 I was also on the record, I did lots of media in the weeks leading up to the by-election.

00:02:55.820 And my sense, following and speaking to folks on the Liberal campaign in St. Paul's was just

00:03:02.080 that, that we would eke out probably a victory within four or five points at the most, which

00:03:08.140 I was warning in my media interviews in itself was a pretty dire sign that a riding that we

00:03:14.880 won by 24 points less than three years ago would be down to the wire.

00:03:19.940 So I was also stunned when the party lost it.

00:03:23.820 Look, I think two things can be true at the same time.

00:03:26.620 I think, obviously, by elections, you can't always read too much into them.

00:03:32.280 And I think in this case, Toronto St. Paul's, it was genuinely a perfect storm for the Conservatives

00:03:38.580 to take this riding for the first time in 31 years.

00:03:41.580 And I think that perfect storm was a...

00:03:44.260 Well, really, the first time in 35 years, because the last time they won it...

00:03:47.760 That's true.

00:03:48.340 ...was 1988.

00:03:50.320 I keep making the point that there are a lot of people who voted in this by-election who

00:03:55.040 were not alive the last time that this riding went conservative federally.

00:03:59.960 That's true.

00:04:01.640 And it's interesting because Toronto St. Paul's, prior to 93, was considered to be a bellwether.

00:04:10.320 It was a riding that Barbara McDougal, a high-profile cabinet minister in the Mulroney era, held.

00:04:15.520 It was a riding held by the Ontario PCs for decades.

00:04:18.660 But, and I think Andrew Coyne makes the point, that was an era where the progressive Conservatives

00:04:24.700 and the Liberals were, in hindsight, pretty indistinguishable.

00:04:29.500 And, you know, if there's any riding in Canada that has a lot of Laurentian elites, and, you

00:04:35.400 know, that would be it.

00:04:37.240 And so...

00:04:37.880 To quote my old friend, Daryl Bricker, yeah, Laurentian elites.

00:04:41.620 I've got a bunch of friends in the riding.

00:04:43.980 Some of them may even resemble that description.

00:04:48.320 So, it used to be a bellwether.

00:04:51.740 It hasn't been in a while, but there has been, you know, you mentioned that the parties

00:04:56.860 used to be indistinguishable.

00:04:58.920 While, you know, some would argue the Conservatives have gone right, you can't also help but say,

00:05:04.740 well, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have gone left.

00:05:08.240 And you've got people who are, you know, I know there's been a lot of talk about significant

00:05:15.000 Jewish community, and I won't understate that.

00:05:17.400 But there's also a lot of professionals being hit by the capital gains tax changes.

00:05:23.220 And then you've just got people who, as happens with every party, every politician, they're

00:05:28.720 just disaffected from their leader because they're like, okay, you've been around long

00:05:32.560 enough.

00:05:32.960 You're not doing it for me anymore.

00:05:35.320 So, that's just it.

00:05:36.080 So, I guess, returning to my point, I think there were a mixture of national and local

00:05:42.700 factors that amounted to a perfect storm.

00:05:45.900 So, on the national scene, obviously, this is a deeply unpopular government that's consistently

00:05:51.780 15 to 20 points behind in the polls.

00:05:54.060 Obviously, that loomed large over a by-election, even in a historically safe riding.

00:05:59.780 And then the two key local issues, I think you just cited them correctly.

00:06:04.760 This is a riding with about 15% of the population that's Jewish.

00:06:09.340 I hear people quibbling about that number exactly.

00:06:12.100 I mean, all to say it's probably one of five or six ridings in Canada where, you know, the

00:06:16.880 Jewish community's vote can have an impact.

00:06:20.160 There's no doubt that that was the case.

00:06:22.240 Anecdotally, I know friends in the Jewish community who live in the riding, long-time

00:06:26.840 liberals, what I heard was either they were staying home or they were going right over

00:06:30.720 to the conservatives.

00:06:32.140 And then, yeah, the capital gains inclusion rate changes, I don't think went over well in

00:06:37.820 that riding.

00:06:38.340 So, when you add the national...

00:06:39.880 A lot of doctors, a lot of small business owners, professionals, people who were told by

00:06:45.160 the government, well, you don't have a pension plan, save your retirement inside your

00:06:49.220 corporation.

00:06:50.360 Oh, wait, we're going to hit your corporation with a huge tax increase.

00:06:53.320 Yes.

00:06:53.680 And the final thing I'd mention, I really don't know if this had any impact.

00:06:58.040 I personally think that Leslie Church is a terrific candidate with an excellent CV.

00:07:03.540 I know her a bit.

00:07:05.760 I like her.

00:07:06.540 I think that her concession, the statement that she put out was feisty, but also said,

00:07:13.140 look, we heard your message.

00:07:14.520 I'd just say on that, that when you put up a candidate that was the chief of staff to

00:07:19.300 the finance minister and the deputy prime minister, that you're putting out a candidate

00:07:24.920 there that's really aligned with the government of the day.

00:07:28.000 And I'd be curious to know if that really had an impact, if the residents of St. Paul were

00:07:32.740 acutely aware of that.

00:07:34.720 In a normal election, she would have been the perfect candidate. 0.99

00:07:38.500 You know, I dealt with Leslie Church a bit during her time in government.

00:07:42.800 She'd been in and out of government for a long time, and I've been covering federal

00:07:45.940 politics for longer than I want to admit, but also dealt with her when she was at Google

00:07:50.260 and YouTube working in the private sector.

00:07:53.260 So she's a smart woman. 0.83

00:07:55.540 I actually don't even know Don Stewart, as far as I can recall, have not met him.

00:08:00.100 And he is now the conservative MP, which surprises an awful lot of people.

00:08:05.120 I had spoken to senior, senior people in the conservative headquarters who said to me at

00:08:11.440 noon on Monday, as voting's happening, we are not winning this.

00:08:17.420 We were never going to win this.

00:08:19.100 And anyone that tells you we're winning is lying and then messaged someone I know that

00:08:25.120 was working on the, uh, the, the liberal campaign around midnight as the votes are starting to

00:08:30.320 come in.

00:08:30.680 And I said, congratulations, looks like your team won.

00:08:33.580 And they said, we're afraid of the advanced polls.

00:08:35.960 And when I woke up at, uh, six 30 in the morning, it was a complete flip.

00:08:42.040 So you, you were one of the first, maybe the first that I saw to say, look, the, the,

00:08:49.100 the prime minister has to step down here.

00:08:52.380 Is it his personal unpopularity that, that you think is holding the party down?

00:08:58.040 Latest advocacy poll, I think is 23% for the liberals, 42 for the, uh, conservatives.

00:09:04.260 You know, everybody has them playing in that bandwidth, a point here, a point there.

00:09:09.940 Uh, you know, once in a while, there'll be a nanos poll where somebody says, oh, the load,

00:09:13.480 look, we're just 12 points behind now.

00:09:15.440 Well, that's still a, uh, a majority win for Pierre Paulieff with the conservatives.

00:09:20.260 It, do you think that Trudeau is at the core of the issue with voters or has he just become

00:09:26.660 the face?

00:09:27.260 Why are you calling for him to step down?

00:09:29.240 So, um, I guess, you know, just to be clear in terms of your listeners, I've actually probably

00:09:34.780 since the 21, 2021 election been writing and pontificating on how I feel the liberal party

00:09:41.940 has, uh, to some degree, I mean, much more now, but even three years ago lost its way

00:09:47.120 in terms of, uh, moving away from being a big tent brokerage party.

00:09:51.740 And then that culminated in an op-ed in the Toronto Star in, over the Easter long weekend,

00:09:57.360 just about three months ago, where I, where I, I didn't quite call for his resignation,

00:10:01.980 but I, it was, you know, the, the, the, the headline was that, uh, the liberal party has

00:10:07.600 lost its way and a party that I've been involved in for 20 years.

00:10:11.120 So to me, this, this loss is another proof point in, in my thesis.

00:10:16.960 Um, and I think people look, I think there's a number of factors, but I think we're now

00:10:21.700 at the point where people have stopped listening to Trudeau.

00:10:24.400 They're sick of, they're sick of looking at him.

00:10:26.400 They're sick of listening to him, whether you agree with the policy agenda or not, it's

00:10:31.660 not, um, penetrating the key, their key target audiences.

00:10:35.720 They've made so many announcements in the lead up to the budget and the budget.

00:10:39.100 And I don't see any dent in the gap in public opinion polling.

00:10:44.640 Nothing seems to be working.

00:10:46.680 So as a long time.

00:10:47.500 Well, they've been running around for months now, uh, since last September, um, when they

00:10:53.680 finally realized, oh, wait, housing is an issue.

00:10:56.960 We better do something, not just make announcements.

00:10:59.660 Uh, they seem to, at that point, it was the liberal, uh, caucus retreat in London, Ontario.

00:11:06.540 And Trudeau came out with a bunch of ministers, bunch of MPs, you know, and rolled up sleeves

00:11:13.380 and, oh, we get it.

00:11:15.240 And we're going to work on it now.

00:11:17.100 Well, he made an announcement about giving out money from the housing accelerator fund,

00:11:22.740 which at that point was almost two years old.

00:11:25.120 So two years prior, they'd said, we're going to do something about housing affordability.

00:11:28.740 And then almost two years later, they say, okay, well, here's the money and we're going

00:11:32.220 to build homes.

00:11:33.180 And now housing starts are going down and homes are no more affordable.

00:11:37.260 And you've got this dental care program.

00:11:40.440 They see, which most dentists are not signing up for.

00:11:44.300 And so the people that are promised the care won't get it.

00:11:47.700 And you've got the childcare program where they made promises more than they can keep.

00:11:52.880 And it seems like, so I wrote a piece a little while ago saying Trudeau can promise, but he

00:11:57.700 can't deliver.

00:11:59.440 Other colleagues of mine, like Chris Elliott, National Post have said, it seems like with

00:12:04.040 this government, which keeps blaming the comms and keep saying, oh no, we'll just, we got

00:12:08.160 to fix the comms.

00:12:09.160 It seems like all they have are comms and they don't have deliverables.

00:12:14.280 You've been around successful governments.

00:12:16.640 Uh, you have to execute at some point and these guys aren't executing.

00:12:21.140 And I think that's part of why the public is just not listening anymore.

00:12:26.160 It's like, well, I've been hearing you say that forever.

00:12:28.860 Exactly.

00:12:29.340 Where's the beef is they used to say.

00:12:31.060 And I think it's a number of factors.

00:12:32.760 I mean, the government's obviously, you know, uh, getting long in the tooth.

00:12:36.700 I think a lot of the smartest, savviest advisors that were part of this government successes,

00:12:42.080 obviously Gerald Buds is the high profile name that, that comes to mind.

00:12:45.960 But there's a lot of other people, people like Tyler Meredith, who I know quite well

00:12:50.100 and often spar with on Twitter.

00:12:52.660 Um, a lot of them have left and Leslie Church has left.

00:12:56.240 And, um, so I wonder, I mean, I'm not going to pretend that, that I have relationships across

00:13:01.060 the entire government, but you have to wonder, is this the B or the C team?

00:13:05.040 Um, and you're right.

00:13:06.020 It's an obsession with issues management.

00:13:08.000 It's an obsession with, um, you know, uh, Katie Telford, uh, infamously, infamously said,

00:13:14.460 uh, I think at the height of COVID or perhaps prior to COVID that they were going to line

00:13:19.200 up some op-eds to, uh, deal with an issue.

00:13:22.080 Right.

00:13:22.460 And, um, so I think that that's a perfect illustration of, of how many of Justin Trudeau's advisors

00:13:30.100 and, and key, key, key folks handle issues, but you're right.

00:13:33.680 It is substance.

00:13:34.400 And I put out a tweet earlier this week saying, we need new leadership and we need better policies.

00:13:38.780 And, and some people came at me, progressive liberals and said, well, what do you mean

00:13:42.500 better policies?

00:13:43.280 You don't support childcare and dental care and pharma care?

00:13:46.060 Well, I do to some extent, but you know, the deficit, the debt, um, I think this government,

00:13:51.540 we don't talk about as liberals anymore about wealth creation and competitiveness.

00:13:56.540 We talk about how to divvy up the pie, but we don't talk about creating a more prosperous

00:14:01.720 and a more wealthy society.

00:14:03.240 Which, well, as Belinda Stronick, who was famously in both the conservatives and liberals 0.66

00:14:08.120 used to say, we need to bake a bigger pie.

00:14:10.560 That was her slogan.

00:14:12.080 Yes.

00:14:12.320 We need to bake a bigger pie.

00:14:14.340 And, and, and you're right.

00:14:16.180 The Trudeau liberals are constantly saying, how do we divvy up a smaller pie?

00:14:20.040 I mean, this capital gains tax thing, um, they said, we're going to bring in like 19.7

00:14:26.340 billion over five years.

00:14:27.920 About a third of that, no more than a third of that is 6.9 billion was in the first year.

00:14:34.780 Well, the first year it only applies to a few months.

00:14:38.520 Why did they expect that?

00:14:39.780 Because all the wealthy people are going to sell everything off before it took effect

00:14:43.200 June 25th, the day after the by-election and they're going to get a big windfall.

00:14:49.100 And then after that, it's diminishing returns.

00:14:51.600 So that means in a couple of years, they're going to have to say, well, huh, we didn't look

00:14:56.060 after the deficit.

00:14:57.140 We didn't look after the debt.

00:14:59.020 We're not funding the programs we promised properly.

00:15:02.000 Now we're going to have to go back and slice the pie thinner.

00:15:05.620 And, um, and meanwhile, to make a friend's reference, the rest of us are like Joey when

00:15:10.400 Monica is trying to cut him a slice of pie.

00:15:12.160 No, a little bigger, a little bigger.

00:15:13.760 What are you afraid you're going to run out?

00:15:15.140 Like we want more pie.

00:15:17.240 Uh, you gotta, you gotta, you know, grow the economy.

00:15:20.140 I, I don't think that's part of the liberal lexicon anymore.

00:15:23.600 And it used to be.

00:15:24.640 So, and I want to be clear, like I am a, I call myself a centrist.

00:15:29.000 I'm, I'm very progressive on social issues.

00:15:31.480 Um, and I've supported many of this government's signature programs, like the Canada child benefit,

00:15:36.600 which lifted millions of, of, of children out of poverty.

00:15:39.860 This government has had, you know, some major successes, but there, to your point, there isn't

00:15:45.620 that balance that we saw, uh, in previous iterations of the federal liberal party, certainly

00:15:50.800 under Cray-Chan Martin, uh, where there is a balance between, uh, social progress and,

00:15:55.980 and strong economic stewardship.

00:15:57.500 The cabinet, and I wrote, I wrote about this in the National Observer, uh, as far back as

00:16:02.420 2021, um, the cabinet under previous iterations of the party was a coalition of, of business-minded

00:16:09.420 people, uh, and, and more what we call social liberals.

00:16:12.700 Um, in the first Trudeau term, I mean, Trudeau was clearly from, from when he became opposition

00:16:17.980 leader, a progressive liberal, uh, it was unambiguous where he was going to plant the federal

00:16:22.880 liberal party.

00:16:23.440 And in, in, in the context of the times that made sense, and even in his first term, he

00:16:27.280 had Bill Morneau and Jim Carr and Scott Bryson and Ralph Goodell.

00:16:30.840 These were all, for lack of a better term, business liberals who understood the economy,

00:16:35.160 who understood balancing these interests.

00:16:37.160 Well, none of those individuals are around the cabinet table anymore.

00:16:40.520 And the ministers that are there that have a business background, like, uh, Champagne and

00:16:46.840 Anand, I think their wings are clipped.

00:16:49.460 So I want to see when the, and we can get into this later, when we do, when the party

00:16:54.420 ultimately rebuilds, I want to see a genuine discussion about what we stand for.

00:16:58.340 And I think the brand conflation with the NDP is a huge problem for me.

00:17:03.900 Well, so just the other day, you had five liberal cabinet ministers out doing dental care

00:17:10.860 announcements, including Mark, people are gargling with gasoline, Holland, and, uh, who else

00:17:18.840 showed up and did a dental announcement on the same day with the same talking points?

00:17:23.260 Jagmeet Singh.

00:17:25.260 Don't tell me you're not in a coalition when you're, you know, by the Oxford dictionary

00:17:31.920 definition, it is a coalition.

00:17:33.740 There may not be people in cabinet, but you're in a coalition.

00:17:36.920 And I think it's hurting both parties.

00:17:38.940 And that small little bit of him doing his own dental care announcement to me shows that.

00:17:45.780 So you've been around, um, uh, the, you were around at Queens Park in the McGinty area era.

00:17:52.920 You were around for the win era.

00:17:54.900 When didn't, you know, we all knew that when Kathleen Wynne took over the Ontario liberal

00:17:59.380 party, that she was more on the progressive side than Dalton was.

00:18:03.580 Dalton McGinty was for, you know, despite what his critics would say, Dalton McGinty was

00:18:08.560 kind of a centrist liberal.

00:18:10.560 He was a little bit to the left, a little bit to the right.

00:18:12.640 He'd, he'd bounce around.

00:18:13.820 I always said that, uh, McGinty to me, and he was my MPP for years.

00:18:18.560 I said, he, he, it looks like he's governing, governing like a new England Republican governor.

00:18:25.180 That was kind of his style.

00:18:27.200 Wynne came in and, and got progressively progressive.

00:18:32.660 And at one point tried to outflank the NDP tried to, I thought she was trying to take them 1.00

00:18:38.120 over.

00:18:39.040 Um, do you think that's what Trudeau has been trying to do with his moves to the left?

00:18:44.180 Uh, because as I say, I don't think it's worked out for either one.

00:18:47.720 He hasn't killed off the NDP.

00:18:48.920 They haven't, you know, folded up their tents and gone away.

00:18:51.580 But people that were, were in the center are kind of looking around and either sitting

00:18:57.400 on their hands or switching sides.

00:18:59.200 You know, I feel like I could write an essay on this topic, Brian, because I think there's

00:19:02.760 so many different factors.

00:19:03.800 I think that our political spectrum has evolved since the 1990s.

00:19:08.560 Obviously on the federal scene, we had two right of center parties. 0.81

00:19:11.680 Um, I think the rise of the NDP, uh, in the latent era, um, really, uh, it, it forced

00:19:20.340 the liberals to, from a strategic point of view.

00:19:22.560 And David Hurley talks about this, about, uh, trying to, uh, you know, get that NDP

00:19:27.200 support to, to defeat conservatives.

00:19:29.220 And, uh, we all know the, you know, the strategic voting line that is a very cynical one, but

00:19:34.520 in, in previous elections works.

00:19:36.480 So I think, you know, in the Wynn case, it was, it was very interesting because Wynn is

00:19:41.620 one of the very few examples, and it relates to today, a leader that succeeded a relatively

00:19:47.000 unpopular leader and was able to rebrand the party in her image and go on to win an election. 0.55

00:19:51.620 Now, Horvath at that time was almost seen to be to the right of Kathleen Wynn.

00:19:57.900 And certainly in urban areas, Wynn was the preferred option among progressives.

00:20:02.300 Hudak ran objectively a pretty hard right campaign, and that also facilitated that upset majority.

00:20:08.800 I'd be hard pressed to see that scenario happening here.

00:20:11.960 I will say, um, there, I don't think there's any way we can win with Trudeau right now.

00:20:17.480 Selecting a new leader is high risk.

00:20:19.680 It's higher risk.

00:20:20.620 And there's always the risk that you end up with a Kim Campbell or a John Turner.

00:20:25.080 I'm, I know I'm certain that Brian Mulrooney would not have won two seats in 93.

00:20:29.360 And I'm pretty certain Pierre Trudeau would have won more than 40 seats in 1984.

00:20:34.140 So there is, there is an argument on the other side there, you know, those who want Trudeau

00:20:37.940 to stay, I disagree with them, but they're not completely crazy.

00:20:41.060 Um, I think, okay, well, well, well, I've written a column on, uh, maybe, uh, Justin Trudeau

00:20:46.900 is the best option for the liberals in, uh, the next election.

00:20:50.500 Let's talk about that.

00:20:51.540 When we come back, we'll take a quick break, come back, talk about should Trudeau go?

00:20:55.760 Should he stay?

00:20:56.520 Is he the best option?

00:20:57.480 Or, you know, does Mark, hello, fellow beer drinkers, Carney replace him more in moments.

00:21:03.940 So for all the talk of Justin Trudeau having to go, that his welcome is worn out.

00:21:09.740 So is he perhaps the best option for the liberal party going into the next election?

00:21:14.800 Uh, Andrew, I wrote about this in the pages of the Toronto sun.

00:21:18.580 I said, maybe Trudeau's not leaving because he's looked around the room and he went, okay.

00:21:23.540 Christy Freeland talks to adults like they're four year olds at story time with their, you

00:21:29.220 know, sitting cross-legged on the carpet.

00:21:31.120 Mark Carney can't communicate, holds a beer can like he's never seen one, uh, while cheering

00:21:35.980 for the Edmonton Oilers.

00:21:37.580 Nobody knows who Anita Anand is outside of the caucus.

00:21:41.340 Um, Frankie Bubbles or Francois Philippe Champagne, you know, he's a guy I like, but I'm not sure

00:21:47.060 he would, you know, sit with the base of the party today.

00:21:50.400 Uh, Melanie Jolie, Dominic LeBlanc, would they do better than me?

00:21:54.360 I think that's part of Trudeau's calculus, I think, at this point.

00:21:58.200 Yeah.

00:21:58.440 And it's a very interesting question because, um, you're right.

00:22:02.940 We, I think we need a new leader, but it has, in my view, it has to be the right leader.

00:22:07.900 Um, and it's, you know, I was reading, uh, Martin Redcon penned an article.

00:22:12.660 He interviewed Kathleen Wynne and she's reflecting back on the very tough decision that she made

00:22:18.260 probably in 2017, uh, that she was going to stick around.

00:22:22.020 I think probably midway, and you would recall this vividly, probably Brian, I think midway

00:22:26.860 through her, her majority government term, she began tanking in public opinion, not unlike

00:22:32.580 what we're seeing today.

00:22:33.800 And, you know, they put out OHIP plus and they put out a dental program and a lot of progressive

00:22:40.220 left-leaning new Democrat, if you will, policies, and it was having no impact.

00:22:45.340 And she, you know, she actually reasoned, she thought that she was still the best place

00:22:49.920 to, to potentially eke out another win, or if not a strong opposition, she didn't see

00:22:55.160 anybody in the lexicon that would have that ability.

00:22:58.080 So there is some credence to that argument, but in hindsight, we know what happened.

00:23:02.620 And I just think that Trudeau has-

00:23:04.800 They went down to the minivan party.

00:23:06.280 Yeah.

00:23:06.920 But maybe, maybe somebody else would, would have taken them even lower.

00:23:10.360 Yeah.

00:23:10.540 I mean, Stephen Del Duca, who I met with and said, oh, Brian, I'm a Cretchen centrist,

00:23:17.500 and I'm going to run as the Ontario Liberals as a centrist party, still ran like the NDP

00:23:21.900 and, and couldn't get them party status back.

00:23:26.060 So, you know, so, I mean, that is the calculus that the leader has to think about.

00:23:30.540 And that's, that's something I'm interested in exploring more.

00:23:33.380 Why, and yes, it worked in 2014, the attack to the left, outmaneuver the NDP, consolidate

00:23:41.040 that progressive vote.

00:23:42.560 But, and, and, and it worked in 2015.

00:23:44.560 We know that Tom Mulcair was arguably running to the right of Justin Trudeau.

00:23:49.480 But in subsequent elections, it didn't work in 2018 for when it didn't really, I don't

00:23:54.640 think you could really say that approach worked in 2019 or 2021 for Trudeau.

00:23:58.560 We lost the population.

00:23:59.560 No, he eeked out the smallest successive majorities in, in Canadian history in terms

00:24:05.520 of popular vote.

00:24:06.280 So why, as Liberal parties, are we still tacking to the left?

00:24:10.880 Why is that the strategic, it's like, it's like just the instant, like, reflex that we

00:24:16.840 are going to tack to the left.

00:24:18.360 We're going to sound like New Democrats. 0.63

00:24:20.780 We're going to govern more like New Democrats. 0.78

00:24:23.800 And I, and I'm not, look, I was a young child.

00:24:26.160 You're in the Liberal Party.

00:24:27.280 So let me ask you, because my view is that you talked about the political spectrum having

00:24:34.880 moved over the years, you know, it ebbs and flows.

00:24:38.160 But I would say that right now, the people on any levers of power in federal or the few

00:24:44.980 provincial Liberal parties that remain, that they view themselves as progressives and not

00:24:51.620 centrists.

00:24:52.180 And the old Liberal Party used to succeed because, as my Italian friends would say,

00:24:57.260 una gamba, una gamba, one leg each side, and you straddle.

00:25:02.280 And that can be a dangerous spot sometimes, but it can also lead to great success.

00:25:06.040 And it did for the federal Liberal Party for more than a century.

00:25:09.900 And if you decide, no, I don't want one leg over here, one leg over there, and just say,

00:25:14.380 look, I'm in the middle.

00:25:15.380 I'm comfortable for everybody.

00:25:16.780 Everybody come to me, you know, ignore the extremists on either side.

00:25:22.120 If you're going to say, no, I'm going to fight for that space on the left wing, and you're

00:25:27.340 suddenly not the centrist party, you're another progressive party, which is how Trudeau just

00:25:32.620 describes it as a progressive movement.

00:25:34.360 He's built the party or altered the Liberal Party into a movement centered around him.

00:25:40.180 Well, this is the challenge.

00:25:41.020 In Quebec, you've got, in Quebec, the Bloc Québécois, which is, I mean, they're a nationalist

00:25:45.060 party, but they're broadly center-left.

00:25:46.880 You've got the NDP, you've got the Green Party, and then you've got the Liberal Party.

00:25:50.900 So if we continue down this path, I don't think Pierre Poilier's brand of conservatism

00:25:56.800 is palatable for most Canadians.

00:25:58.600 And while I do think he'll be prime minister, I really wonder what his prospects are to be

00:26:04.940 a long-serving PM.

00:26:06.120 And that's why I think this renewal within the Liberal Party is so exciting, because we have

00:26:10.000 an opportunity with a new leader to potentially win a minority, and if not, at least form a

00:26:15.400 respectable opposition and rebuild our party and hold that government to account, because

00:26:20.980 I think that government will be outside the mainstream.

00:26:24.220 I think Trudeau...

00:26:24.980 I think that people believe things about Poliev that simply aren't true because they don't

00:26:31.840 know him.

00:26:32.100 And I will admit that I've known him for 20 years now.

00:26:35.520 And he's not the extremist that folks are painting him out to be.

00:26:40.780 And so that, you know, the Liberal Party will have to deal with that at some point, you know,

00:26:48.880 if and when he becomes prime minister, they'll have to realize, oh, well, he's saying things

00:26:52.900 that we really don't like, but that aren't offside Joe and Jane front porch in Barhaven or

00:26:59.880 in Scarborough or in, you know, Surrey or wherever across the country, they're going to say, well,

00:27:06.180 you know, I'm okay with that.

00:27:08.480 Much like, you know, Liberals in Ontario yelled and screamed that Doug Ford was so far right wing.

00:27:15.540 Now, Pierre Poliev is much more conservative than Doug Ford.

00:27:18.940 But the idea that Doug Ford is some raving right wing lunatic, you know, that did not

00:27:25.220 work out well in Doug Ford's second majority government where he grew because he wasn't

00:27:29.540 there.

00:27:30.600 And going over the top won't help.

00:27:35.720 Well, it's interesting because, you know, your bread and butter is Ontario politics, I

00:27:39.960 think.

00:27:40.420 And it's too early to really make a conclusion.

00:27:43.180 But I think that Bonnie Crombie is trying to present a more centrist party. 0.98

00:27:49.280 And you've seen even this week that they're, you know, the candidate, you know, the candidate

00:27:53.540 signs, the announcements of nominating candidates, Bonnie Crombie's candidate in Ottawa South,

00:27:59.240 Bonnie Crombie's candidate in Don Valley West.

00:28:02.000 Now, that's branding.

00:28:03.160 It harkens back to the Paul Martin era where it was Paul Martin's Liberals.

00:28:07.280 But I think Bonnie is trying to fashion a more centrist party. 0.94

00:28:11.280 So I'll be curious to see what level of level of success that has.

00:28:16.020 Things are so bad for Justin Trudeau, though, that the Ontario Liberal leader distanced herself

00:28:21.580 in an interview with Global News.

00:28:24.200 You were part of that package.

00:28:25.640 I watched it.

00:28:26.820 She distanced herself from Justin Trudeau.

00:28:29.140 It was almost as if she said, Justin Trudeau, who's that?

00:28:32.780 I've never met the guy.

00:28:33.980 I was in caucus with him for three years from 2008 to 2011.

00:28:37.420 I met him multiple times as mayor of Mississauga, but I don't really know him.

00:28:41.280 To me, that said a little bit about where I think it was a misstep for Crombie.

00:28:46.060 But to me, it said more about Trudeau.

00:28:47.920 He is becoming toxic.

00:28:50.120 So you think he should leave.

00:28:51.980 We agree that he's got to make this assessment of whether that's the best thing for him,

00:28:58.460 for the party, for the country.

00:28:59.580 I think, you know, in those equations, his own views weigh or his own interests weigh heavier

00:29:06.820 than the party or the country.

00:29:08.060 But that's my view of Justin.

00:29:11.180 Who else would come in?

00:29:13.720 I like someone like Frankie Bubbles, as I call him.

00:29:17.440 Champagne is someone that I think is much more like a Jean Chrétien Liberal.

00:29:24.600 Melanie Jolie, though, that's someone, you know, one of the issues in Toronto St.

00:29:29.180 Paul's was the government stand on the war in Israel between Israel and Hamas.

00:29:36.680 I've said publicly multiple times that I think Melanie Jolie, as our foreign affairs minister,

00:29:42.500 is trying to make Canada part of Team Hamas.

00:29:45.860 She has made statements.

00:29:48.020 She still hasn't taken down her tweet from mid-October, claiming that Israel bombed a hospital,

00:29:54.120 killing hundreds of people.

00:29:55.940 She is offside of where bipartisan consensus has been on this issue for decades in this country.

00:30:04.080 So on the leadership question, I've been reflecting on that more since the by-election result.

00:30:09.440 And I'm genuinely struggling with it because my instinct is that any current minister is not going to be a real starter

00:30:19.500 because there's, I just, you know, we know the average person consumes very little politics,

00:30:27.260 but the headline will be liberals elect ex-leader who has been a minister for 10 years under the Trudeau government.

00:30:34.040 So I, to me, I feel that we need to go outside the government.

00:30:39.780 And the only-

00:30:40.180 You're right about that.

00:30:41.400 There's only going to be a few ministers that people would actually know, Freeland being one of them.

00:30:45.780 And that she would not be.

00:30:48.660 And now Dominic LeBlanc, I'm getting the sense through my networks that he could be a front runner.

00:30:56.960 And he-

00:30:57.420 He's one of the most astute politicians I've watched in any party at any level of government.

00:31:01.920 Uh, he, he knows how to get things done and he goes in elbows up, but he has a quality that he shares with people like Doug Ford.

00:31:10.660 He makes you want to like him, whether you're on the same team or not.

00:31:13.580 He's like that.

00:31:14.240 Ah, shucks.

00:31:15.040 And that's why he was intergovernmental affairs and built and, and built productive and fruitful relationships with conservative premiers.

00:31:22.740 And I've followed Dominic LeBlanc for 24 years.

00:31:26.120 I like the guy.

00:31:27.200 I, I, I think there's many excellent qualities that he has, but this is someone that was elected to parliament in the year 2000.

00:31:34.100 And prior to that, he was a Craychance staffer.

00:31:37.440 And prior to that, he was Justin Trudeau's babysitter.

00:31:39.580 And he's a very close personal friend of Justin Trudeau, which again, like no shade on any of that, but is that what a renewed, I agree.

00:31:49.500 I think probably in terms of his qualities and his disposition and his pragmatism, he's a strong communicator.

00:31:56.260 He, he probably ticks off almost every box.

00:31:59.100 But is he too close to the government?

00:32:00.740 Precisely.

00:32:01.140 Um, the one exception might be Sean Fraser.

00:32:05.300 Um, I know that a lot of people are critical of his role as immigration minister and, and, and what that led to.

00:32:12.060 And I could see the conservatives pilloring him for his tenure in the, in the immigration ministry.

00:32:18.180 But I know firsthand, based on tweets that I've put out saying that I think Sean Fraser is a promising future leader, conservatives just went crazy.

00:32:26.720 Like, I, I do think, and he does hold a riding that's not very safe.

00:32:30.760 I think he's, he's behind in that riding of Central, I think, I'm not sure the current name, it was Central Nova one day, Peter McKay's former.

00:32:37.320 Yeah.

00:32:38.420 You know, he's, he's, look, he's, he's a millennial, he's smart, he's a good communicator, he's, he's attractive.

00:32:44.900 Let's not, let, I don't mean to.

00:32:46.880 Oh, no, no.

00:32:47.500 Nobody votes based on that.

00:32:49.840 Nobody's ever elected a, oh, other than Justin Trudeau.

00:32:52.920 So these are all, he's a part of the cabinet.

00:32:55.100 So I, I still think we need to go outside the government.

00:32:58.140 But the only, the only two names are Mark Carney.

00:33:00.800 And the other name I'm hearing, which isn't being reported on a lot, but I know that this individual is considering it, is Christy Clark.

00:33:09.720 And that's an intriguing name for me because it's, it, Christy Clark led a BC liberal government, which we know is a coalition of liberals and conservatives.

00:33:18.700 Yeah, she, she's, she's definitely on the federal liberal side of that coalition, but it was a coalition and she's not an NDP type. 0.98

00:33:26.920 She fights the NDP courts, as they say out there. 1.00

00:33:29.040 No, she's been very critical of Justin Trudeau.

00:33:31.600 I think she even endorsed Jean Charest in the conservative leadership race.

00:33:36.820 And she is someone that was in, she's someone that took over from Gordon Campbell and the party was way, way behind and, and, and won an election.

00:33:49.140 I remember it was 2013.

00:33:51.060 I think it was Adrian Dix was the NDP leader.

00:33:53.960 So I, I was in her campaign headquarters doing live TV and reporting when that happened.

00:33:59.300 And we all expected that the liberals were going down in defeat and you, you would have been in awe of the people coming through.

00:34:10.260 I had federal liberals coming by to talk to me while I'm on TV at Stockwell day dropping by to say, Christy Clark's going to win in terms of backroom people.

00:34:19.400 It was Warren Kinsella, uh, working on her campaign, uh, Nick Kouvalos, who's now Doug Ford's pollster, Dimitri Pansopoulos, Don Guy, I believe.

00:34:29.720 Don Guy, all, all these backroom people from both the liberal and the conservative parties who normally battle out against each other.

00:34:37.120 We're working together and, and, and she won.

00:34:41.140 She, for the most part, she led a successful government, uh, until the end, which is always how it worked, right? 1.00

00:34:46.200 You're successful in politics until you're not.

00:34:49.160 And that's the thing that this, this individual is auditioning likely to be opposition leader.

00:34:55.760 So the disposition of that person, they have to be a street fighter.

00:34:59.240 They have to be someone.

00:35:00.460 We know that leader of the official opposition or leader of the third party.

00:35:03.700 It's the worst job in politics because you have to stand up every single day and be negative and criticize.

00:35:11.260 And even if you agree with what the government's doing, you have to poke holes in it and find a way to say that you oppose it.

00:35:16.820 And a lot of, a lot of politicians who, who, who excel in government aren't, aren't cut out for being scrappy opposition leaders.

00:35:26.340 And you think Christy Clark could be?

00:35:27.700 Absolutely.

00:35:28.860 When I look at her disposition, she's, she's smart, but she's scrappy.

00:35:33.100 She's a good communicator. 0.81

00:35:34.780 She's not a pointy head intellectual, like, like you would suggest Mark Carney is.

00:35:39.420 She is certainly.

00:35:40.060 Oh, I don't suggest Mark Carney as Mark Carney is.

00:35:42.600 She is certainly a centrist.

00:35:44.260 And if anything, I mean, on economics and, and, uh, natural resource policy, she is, she is, I think, you know, center, center, right.

00:35:52.380 Uh, she's a social, she's a social progressive. 0.99

00:35:55.380 She's from BC.

00:35:56.860 I think it might be who the liberal party to find a leader from, from that doesn't hail from central Canada.

00:36:02.680 I think we need a radical, we need to go, we need to, the new, like we need to be looking outside the box.

00:36:08.760 Maybe there's going to be other people that come out of the woodwork from different, I don't know, different facets of society.

00:36:14.460 But I'm surprised that all these lists are, it's 95% current cabinet ministers.

00:36:19.920 Like, I don't think that's going to cut it.

00:36:21.260 I, I don't think so either.

00:36:23.840 Uh, my, my friend and colleague from national poster, him Muhammad did put out a fun tweet, didn't mention Christy Clark's name, didn't mention Kim Campbell's name, but he showed a map of the 93 election results.

00:36:34.440 And he just said, here's what happened the last time a party picked an obscure woman from British Columbia to run.

00:36:40.800 I didn't see that, but that's funny.

00:36:43.220 It's funny, but it's totally unfair because beyond being a woman and from BC that she was premier and she's, she does have some profile.

00:36:51.160 Well, across the country, but let's talk about Mark Carney before we run out of time.

00:36:54.740 Uh, he, he worked well with the Harper government, with Stephen Harper, with late finance minister, Jim Flaherty, went on to be, uh, while he was Bank of Canada governor, went on to be Bank of England governor.

00:37:05.820 He has since, you know, shown himself in statements.

00:37:09.720 He's very, he's, he's a smart guy.

00:37:12.100 He's an economist very much on the, the progressive side though.

00:37:16.240 And my view of him, and this is from covering him, smart guy, nice guy, affable, can't communicate.

00:37:24.600 So I would take, I would challenge you a bit, Brian, on your first comment around being on the progressives.

00:37:31.780 I mean, he is progressive for sure.

00:37:34.520 And certainly on climate change, that's been a huge focus of his.

00:37:37.480 I attended, I'm sure you, you, you, I don't know if you were there or you, you, I'm certainly, you heard about the speech through the grapevine.

00:37:44.540 It was covered at length by the star.

00:37:46.340 He gave a speech, Canada 2020 speech, uh, actually two speeches, one in Ottawa, one in Toronto.

00:37:51.300 The Toronto speech actually differed from the Ottawa speech because the Ottawa speech took place before the budget and before the capital gains announcement.

00:37:58.500 That speech was a traditional liberal speech.

00:38:03.140 He was talking, he actually said there was a line, you can't redistribute money that you don't have.

00:38:08.420 He talked about a growth agenda, an abundance agenda, the need to, again, not use the word, but essentially build a bigger economic pie.

00:38:16.420 Mark Carney is a centrist.

00:38:18.420 He is unabashedly progressive on, on, on the environment and on climate change, which he sees as an extension, existential crisis.

00:38:25.260 But I, what I'm getting from him, read his, read and listening to his speeches is there would be a pivot in policy in terms of the economy and how it's.

00:38:34.760 That's interesting.

00:38:35.180 So I would challenge that.

00:38:36.500 And on the communication, I, yes.

00:38:38.940 He can speak to boardroom level.

00:38:40.600 He can speak to the C-suite.

00:38:42.460 Can he speak to the average person?

00:38:44.640 And I know he comes from humble backgrounds and, and I, I say this with no disrespect, um, but I used to cover him a lot during the financial crisis.

00:38:54.160 And at times as news conferences were impenetrable, I'm there trying to get a clip for news talk, 10, 10 in Toronto and CJD in Montreal.

00:39:04.500 And you're, you're looking at it saying, there's nothing I can use.

00:39:07.340 Can you say something like it's, um, uh, you know, the, the, the average person can understand.

00:39:13.420 So Mark Carney is a bit of a curious case to me because he's been telegraphing publicly in the media since at least early 2021, when he appeared, uh, virtually at the liberal party's convention during COVID that he supports the liberal party and the prime minister, and he'll do everything he can to support the party.

00:39:33.500 Those were his words.

00:39:34.300 So he's been telegraphing his interest in running for at least three or four years.

00:39:39.940 He, he didn't run in the last election.

00:39:41.680 Like, I think he needs to seek a seat in parliament.

00:39:44.920 And I think he needs to show that he knows how politics works.

00:39:48.660 But if he's smart, he'll be, I agree.

00:39:51.160 He's the communications are a weakness.

00:39:52.880 If he's smart, he'll be working.

00:39:54.560 He'll be working with a coach right now and doing the media training.

00:39:58.820 And it's hard to relearn.

00:40:00.840 Like if, if you're an intellectual by nature, a PhD, you've been the governor of two banks, you speak in a certain way.

00:40:07.020 So that's very hard, but I think he can do that.

00:40:10.000 And I think maybe I'm naive, but I look at a country like France, someone like Emmanuel Macron.

00:40:16.680 Do we as Canadians not want to elect smart, accomplished?

00:40:20.520 You want a smart leader?

00:40:22.480 Absolutely.

00:40:23.040 I don't think that we have one now.

00:40:24.580 With the economic challenges that we have, to me, and maybe I'm living in my, you know, in an echo chamber here, downtown Toronto.

00:40:33.000 But to me, if he could get in a debate with Pierre Poirier and expose, expose the weaknesses and the shallowness of that agenda, in my view, and say, look, here's my experience. 0.81

00:40:45.580 Here's what I like, like, no bullshit politics.

00:40:48.100 Like, here's what we need to do. 0.95

00:40:49.920 And, and this is my assessment of the country.

00:40:52.020 Here's where we've gone wrong under the current government.

00:40:54.220 Here's where I would, here's what I would do.

00:40:56.720 But where's your plan, Mr. Polyever?

00:40:58.800 Here's my plan.

00:40:59.680 Here's what I would do.

00:41:00.860 I think Canadians maybe would buy into that and say, this guy is smart.

00:41:05.660 He may not be the best communicator.

00:41:07.620 And I think it would be a nice contrast with, with Polyever. 0.99

00:41:11.660 I think if he could do that training and learn to communicate, he'd be a threat.

00:41:17.120 And you can learn that.

00:41:18.280 And just because you're a PhD doesn't mean that you, you can't speak in simple terms.

00:41:23.880 The toughest thing to do often is speak short sentences and make yourself clearly understood.

00:41:30.840 George Orwell's essay on language and politics.

00:41:33.340 Mark Twain's comment, I would have written a shorter letter, but I didn't have the time.

00:41:39.120 You've got to be able to condense your words.

00:41:42.180 You've got to be able to summarize your thoughts.

00:41:45.560 And in a way that you don't need to be a PhD.

00:41:49.860 Most of the population that's going to vote for you is not at that level.

00:41:52.840 And I agree with you, Brian.

00:41:54.120 And that's why I think like if he had run in 2021, Ottawa Centre was open at the time

00:41:58.760 when Catherine McKenna resigned and had run and got himself into the ring and into the

00:42:04.640 battle and showed his medal and he would have been appointed to cabinet.

00:42:08.860 I don't know if it would have been finance, but a senior economic post.

00:42:11.940 This was the problem Bill Morneau had.

00:42:13.620 He had no experience in politics.

00:42:16.000 He was thrust into parliament, instantly became minister of finance and was in question period

00:42:20.500 and not committee and obviously wasn't, you know, he would have been well to have served

00:42:25.480 in opposition for a term.

00:42:27.640 So I agree with you.

00:42:30.440 The challenge with Mark Carney is he's kind of, he's skipping a couple steps.

00:42:34.860 He's going straight to the leadership.

00:42:36.700 Yeah.

00:42:37.040 Well, Christy Clark's from outside, but knows how politics works.

00:42:40.580 Mark Carney's from the outside, but doesn't.

00:42:42.580 This is going to be the topic of the summer, I think, for Politico's Andrew.

00:42:46.360 It's going to be something that we all speculate on until something happens.

00:42:50.860 It will be, will he, won't he?

00:42:53.100 At times it will be, where's Waldo?

00:42:55.060 Where is the PM?

00:42:56.320 Is he at a cottage or is he going to resign?

00:42:58.380 The rumors will be endless, but that's fun for guys like you and I.

00:43:01.780 Thanks so much for the time today.

00:43:03.080 Thank you so much.

00:43:04.840 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:43:07.360 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.

00:43:08.700 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.

00:43:11.040 Theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:43:12.840 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:43:15.200 Subscribe to Full Comment on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you listen to your podcast.

00:43:19.440 Help us out by giving us a rating, leaving a review.

00:43:23.020 Tell your friends about us.

00:43:24.560 And thanks for listening.

00:43:25.980 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:43:27.340 Thank you.

00:43:27.780 Thanks for having me.

00:43:30.940 Bye-bye.

00:43:31.540 Bye-bye.

00:43:32.200 Bye-bye.

00:43:32.880 Bye-bye.

00:43:33.640 Bye-bye.

00:43:33.740 Bye.

00:43:35.800 Bye-bye.

00:43:36.800 Bye-bye.

00:43:38.240 Bye-bye.

00:43:39.800 Bye-bye.

00:43:43.080 Bye-bye.

00:43:43.740 Bye-bye.

00:43:44.280 Bye-bye.

00:43:45.160 Bye-bye.

00:43:53.300 Bye-bye.

00:43:55.240 Bye-bye.

Full Comment - July 01, 2024

The inescapable implosion of Trudeau’s bizarro Liberal party

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