Full Comment - The joys of ‘duking it out’ over Jason Kenney

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00:00:20.360 Hi, I'm Anthony Fury. Thanks for joining us for the latest episode of Full Comment.

00:00:24.440 Please consider subscribing if you haven't already.

00:00:26.620 What on earth is going on in Alberta politics?

00:00:30.480 And I mean it. I'll confess that as someone Toronto-based, I'm just trying to figure this all out.

00:00:35.540 Is Jason Kenney about to be booted out as the sitting premier of Alberta?

00:00:40.380 Kenney is facing dissent within his own party, the United Conservative Party,

00:00:44.500 and ballots are being mailed out to almost 60,000 party members

00:00:47.880 to ask them whether or not they want to see a leadership election.

00:00:51.680 Kenney has said that if the majority response is yes, he is stepping down.

00:00:55.420 Wow. That's wild.

00:00:57.840 But I gotta say, I kind of like it if only because it seems like democracy in action,

00:01:03.100 and we could do with a whole lot more of that stuff in Canada all across the spectrum.

00:01:07.980 So how did this come about, and where is it headed?

00:01:10.680 Let's break it all down with this episode's guest, Evan Menzies.

00:01:13.740 He's worked with the Wild Rose Party in Alberta,

00:01:15.960 he was director of communications for Alberta's United Conservative Party,

00:01:19.220 and now he's over at Crestview Strategies, where he is a senior campaign strategist

00:01:23.520 in their Calgary office.

00:01:25.280 Hey, Evan, welcome to the show.

00:01:27.260 Happy to be here.

00:01:28.180 This is interesting times in Alberta politics, I must say.

00:01:33.000 Yeah, I joined Wild Rose in 2011,

00:01:36.780 and at the time it seemed like Alberta was paving the way for unorthodox political movements,

00:01:43.640 but yeah, here we are again, definitely carving out new pathways here.

00:01:48.420 Yeah, continuing with the unorthodox moves.

00:01:51.100 So first of all, Jason Kenney, could he lose this vote?

00:01:55.000 Is it in the realm of possibility that he will not be premier a month from now?

00:01:58.880 It's definitely within the realm of possibility,

00:02:02.660 but my instincts, just observing this, is that I think there are very loud sections of the party

00:02:12.660 who are obviously unsatisfied with Premier Jason Kenney's leadership,

00:02:17.340 but my general sense is that a growing segment,

00:02:20.980 I don't know if it's fair to call them a silent majority,

00:02:23.160 but folks who maybe aren't actively in the media cycle every day

00:02:28.120 will be backing Jason Kenney in this vote.

00:02:32.440 The fact that it's a universal vote among membership is, again,

00:02:36.560 unprecedented for a leadership review cycle,

00:02:38.980 but I think we'll certainly help Premier Jason Kenney in his bid to get the party's support.

00:02:45.600 All right, well, let's break down all of that stuff more in depth in a couple minutes.

00:02:48.760 The nuts and bolts, though, of what's going on,

00:02:50.580 we understand we've got ballots being mailed out to, like I said, almost 60,000 party members.

00:02:56.680 They must be returned by May 11th.

00:02:58.880 The results are going to be announced on May 18th,

00:03:01.120 so this is like a straight-up yes or no question.

00:03:03.960 Should there be a leadership review?

00:03:07.140 Yeah, and folks mark their ballot yes to show support for Jason Kenney.

00:03:12.300 No is, obviously, they're looking for a leadership review,

00:03:15.740 and the Premier's previously indicated that he's staying on with 50% plus one

00:03:20.980 and is expecting folks in the party to essentially get behind him

00:03:27.720 after the leadership vote to maintain unity.

00:03:31.160 So that's, you know, that's step one here with the leadership review.

00:03:35.300 We'll see what that number is.

00:03:36.880 Folks who have been against the Premier are calling for numbers in the high 70s, early 80s,

00:03:41.920 for him to be able to stay on.

00:03:44.740 We'll see what happens.

00:03:46.380 So there's step one is leadership review.

00:03:48.940 Step two is the aftermath.

00:03:52.460 Yeah, and what's interesting about that point,

00:03:54.080 that it should be a higher threshold,

00:03:55.360 is there are individuals out there who have been leaders of different parties before,

00:03:58.740 whether it's, you know, in Alberta, federal, what have you, NDP,

00:04:01.600 who have said, I need to get two-thirds or this amount.

00:04:05.020 That's what they'll consider an acceptable leadership review number for them to stick around.

00:04:09.920 Do you have any sense of why Jason Kenney chose 50% plus one?

00:04:13.180 Because, of course, if he only gets just 51%, I mean, that's a pretty divided party there.

00:04:19.180 Yeah, it's, my general sense is that the Alberta, I mean, just like every other jurisdiction,

00:04:27.140 faced some pretty contentious debates over COVID.

00:04:31.000 And, I mean, we're still coming out of that period.

00:04:33.560 And my guess is the thinking from the premier is that the party going into a leadership race right now

00:04:41.200 could be even more divisive than, say, a 55%, 60% leadership review ballot.

00:04:48.380 And that risk of divisiveness in the party having to debate over past COVID actions could cause further splits.

00:04:57.660 I mean, the reality is, is that the United Conservative Party has that united part in front of the name,

00:05:02.760 but it's only five years old, has only gone through one election cycle.

00:05:06.440 So, and obviously the premier was front and center in that debate, trying to unite the two movements.

00:05:11.200 So, I think for him, he obviously, he, I think he's sensitive to the fact that he wants to keep the parties united.

00:05:18.540 And, you know, if, ultimately, if he feels like a leadership race will need to be called,

00:05:24.680 I think he'll take that quite seriously.

00:05:27.880 But I think he's, he's quite anxious.

00:05:30.320 And he said so as such in his public comments and his recent speech on April 9th,

00:05:34.960 addressed to party members that the risk of a leadership review could cause quite a bit of splintering in the,

00:05:41.060 in the conservative movement in Alberta.

00:05:43.620 To what degree is the Alberta movement already splintered and it's just being sort of MacGyvered together to,

00:05:50.260 to stay in place by whatever it is, people obliging to be in this party together,

00:05:55.000 or Jason Kenney through sheer force of, or of will, as you pointed out,

00:05:59.240 being the guy to really unite the party that he's just the one keeping it together.

00:06:02.740 I mean, to what degree would you say the party is a naturally united party right now?

00:06:06.440 And to what degree is it a band-aid amalgam of other groups?

00:06:11.560 Yeah, that's a really interesting, interesting and complex question.

00:06:15.140 Again, we, we have to tie this all back into COVID, but I mean,

00:06:18.880 the, the sort of different parts of the tent here are pretty complex.

00:06:24.600 There's obviously a pretty strong rural and urban divide within the party.

00:06:29.480 Um, again, that's not unusual in any conservative party, right?

00:06:33.740 Uh, you'll, you'll find a pretty strong libertarian bent out here in Alberta.

00:06:38.040 Obviously, uh, you know, the brand of Alberta conservatism is pretty synonymous with,

00:06:43.440 with folks who are passionate and loving of freedom and, uh, and very anti Ottawa.

00:06:48.020 And so there's that sort of section of the party that, uh, it's been a tough couple of years.

00:06:52.580 Uh, we've seen, uh, Trudeau elected not once, but twice and pretty, uh, uh, on campaigns that were,

00:06:59.400 I think, uh, uh, at best pretty negative against Alberta.

00:07:03.120 Uh, then we had COVID, which brought in restrictions and, uh, in defense of the premier,

00:07:07.420 he was always the last to bring them in and the first to, uh, uh, to repeal them.

00:07:12.720 But that, uh, that's been pretty contentious.

00:07:15.160 And of course we, we had the freedom convoy movement in January that I think was kind of

00:07:19.880 an explosion of a lot of, uh, pent up anger and frustration over the past couple of years.

00:07:24.140 So there's, um, but, you know, and then there's other folks in the party who,

00:07:27.520 who wanted a more moderate approach on, on COVID policy than what even premier Jason

00:07:32.780 Kenya was, was presenting.

00:07:34.040 They would have preferred action earlier.

00:07:36.080 Uh, perhaps they would have preferred, uh, the way Ontario went, which, uh, in my view,

00:07:39.980 it was certainly a little bit more aggressive on the COVID file than we were out here.

00:07:43.560 Oh, absolutely.

00:07:43.820 And so, yeah, so all those, all those different factors and emotions are, are kind of,

00:07:47.780 it's pulling everyone in different directions.

00:07:49.200 And because of the intensity of the moment, uh, the intensity of the fight for freedom,

00:07:53.660 I mean, we can see that in the federal campaign right now with, with folks lining behind PR's,

00:07:57.520 uh, probably have some message, message on freedom.

00:08:00.140 Um, I, I think there's just a lot of, I, I, yeah, I use that word intensity again to describe

00:08:05.020 these different camps.

00:08:06.120 Um, I think the premier is hoping that as, as with Omicron and COVID begins to fade in

00:08:11.500 the background, that, that the party members can sort of get back to first principles, talking

00:08:16.280 about freedom, talking about balanced budgets, talking about choice and education fixes to

00:08:20.160 the healthcare system.

00:08:21.640 Now, one of the things that a lot of people feel is that they don't want to so much put

00:08:25.500 this in the rear view mirror until they have had a public inquiry, a commission, a full airing

00:08:31.700 out of what went on.

00:08:32.720 And because I know hearing from at least a lot of people in Ontario who were philosophical

00:08:37.020 conservatives, who were very unhappy with what Doug Ford did, they say, I didn't join

00:08:40.840 a conservative party so I could micromanage people's lives.

00:08:43.500 I take COVID seriously, want to protect the high risk people.

00:08:45.960 But the idea that I didn't sign up for this party so I could tell people, this is how far

00:08:50.620 apart you must stand from people.

00:08:52.400 Uh, you must wear this mask or else we're going to call the cops on you.

00:08:54.780 This is just not what we do as conservatives.

00:08:56.520 And I do feel like there's been, or there should have been a major debate among conservatives

00:09:01.980 about what direction they went ahead and that they never had.

00:09:04.700 And I know that Jason Kenney's saying, I'd like to put some of this behind me.

00:09:08.000 And Doug Ford would like to totally, uh, make people forget about all the things that he

00:09:12.060 brought in the past couple of years.

00:09:13.580 But a lot of people say they can't move forward until they've had that airing of grievances.

00:09:18.420 Is that going on in Alberta?

00:09:19.780 Cause I hear it here in Ontario.

00:09:21.080 Yeah, uh, I, I certainly think that's the case.

00:09:25.100 Um, I, you know, Danielle Smith, who, uh, you know, for folks who may not remember was

00:09:30.200 a leader of the wild rose party and eventually crossed over the PC party in, uh, in 2015 or

00:09:34.800 2014, uh, she's sort of stated that she's open or hoping to run for leader of, uh, the

00:09:40.780 leadership review goes against Jason Kenney.

00:09:42.220 I think she's definitely representing that sort of voice of frustration, uh, among people

00:09:46.660 who are frustrated with COVID, although I, I certainly don't think she's the face for

00:09:49.880 it, but yeah, I, you know, the premier himself has talked about a need to, uh, to review what

00:09:55.120 happened during COVID.

00:09:56.260 Um, and I, I don't think that would be a bad political or tactical move for, uh, well,

00:10:02.120 not just conservative governments, but governments of all stripes to, uh, have, you know, whether

00:10:06.800 it's some sort of public review or, or inquiry to, to understand how decisions were made to

00:10:11.600 understand, you know, uh, were we ready for this pandemic?

00:10:14.320 What are we going to do to be ready for the next one?

00:10:16.500 So we don't have to go through this again.

00:10:18.180 I mean, you'd certainly be familiar with it, but the fact that we spent half a trillion

00:10:23.160 dollars, uh, and went through two years of it, like sometimes, um, nonsensical COVID policies

00:10:28.680 that created a huge societal divisions, uh, we don't need to go through that again.

00:10:32.480 So yeah, there's definitely lots of folks out here who would, who would like to have their

00:10:36.280 say and, and, uh, you know, inform government policy to make sure things like that don't happen

00:10:41.900 again. Uh, the big focus of course, as well, is what are we going to do about our healthcare

00:10:45.940 system? The fact that we have healthcare systems across the country that, that are at the threat

00:10:51.680 of a total collapse, uh, because of a few hundred ICU patients, uh, is something that, um, seriously

00:10:57.600 needs to be addressed.

00:10:58.920 And it's shameful. It's embarrassing. It's scandalous that they can say, you got to shut

00:11:02.400 down the kids' schools, uh, in case there are 200 persons who need an ICU, but 300, that

00:11:06.760 was the number they used here in Ontario. I don't know about the Alberta number. I mean,

00:11:09.220 it's, it's, it's maddening. Yeah. And yeah, at the peak of the Delta wave out here, I think

00:11:14.400 we had about 250 and that, that was, um, uh, anything higher was essentially, uh, total

00:11:20.620 cancellation of surgeries and triage. I mean, in defense of the premier, um, he didn't close

00:11:25.580 schools down again. And, uh, while there was a COVID passport pass, um, which was certainly

00:11:30.720 contentious, um, nothing really closed down after, um, May, 20, uh, 21, um, unless

00:11:39.160 of course, uh, when you get into the vaccine passport, but yeah, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's

00:11:42.880 outrageous. And obviously, um, on public policy front, um, all leaders, uh, including here

00:11:47.760 in Alberta need to show, um, not just their supporters, their base, but, um, all voters

00:11:52.980 that they're going to do something about it.

00:11:55.160 Yeah. We had a full lockdown here in Ontario in January of not 2021, 2022. So ours was more

00:12:01.760 extreme, more severe. Evan, to still pick up on the mechanics of the vote. I understand there

00:12:06.740 was going to be an in-person vote in Red Deer initially, but then that changed. What were

00:12:12.460 the original plans and why did they change? Yeah. So they, uh, the, they, the party set

00:12:19.560 up a special general meeting set up for leadership review. Uh, the party's bylaws that were passed

00:12:25.140 at, uh, uh, an AGM in 2020 required a leadership review to either be held, uh, this year or the

00:12:31.460 year prior, uh, the party board selected this year for leadership review. And then there were

00:12:36.180 some constituency associations who were demanding that it be held earlier. Some wanted it later

00:12:40.880 in the year. Uh, they selected, um, a period that was earlier, but because, um, April was

00:12:46.620 so close to the party's last AGM in November, the party chose to create a special general

00:12:51.120 meeting, uh, designed specifically for the leadership review vote. Um, as a result, um, there,

00:12:57.740 I think there was a, certainly it allowed people to activate and mobilize around the single

00:13:02.180 event, uh, on the leadership review process. And there was incredible engagement, unlike

00:13:06.660 anything we've seen before here in Alberta, um, for context, uh, most AGMs in Alberta or,

00:13:12.120 or leadership review processes, uh, whether it was with the PC party or the wild rose party,

00:13:17.000 I don't think we had ever seen anything higher than 2,500 people attend. Uh, this one in Red

00:13:21.740 Deer, uh, more than 15,000 registrants. And the party was estimating more than 20,000 people

00:13:27.300 to show up at a single hotel for one day of voting in Red Deer. So as a result, the party

00:13:32.500 was faced with a tough question logistically to hold a vote, uh, with 20,000 folks at a

00:13:37.540 hotel in Red Deer, um, uh, great, frankly, I don't think it's just my opinion, but, um,

00:13:42.720 just the cold hard facts would have been impossible. Uh, there were worries about parking people's

00:13:46.700 ability to vote. The fact is, even if you had 12, 14 hours of voting, um, that would have

00:13:52.820 meant you had to process something like, uh, one vote every two seconds. So the party had

00:13:57.540 to make a decision about how, how to, uh, create an alternative for voting.

00:14:01.940 Now, I know there has been some accusations that Jason Kenney wanted to move to a system

00:14:06.100 that is more favorable to him getting votes, uh, that support his leadership and him sticking

00:14:10.500 around. Do you see any validity to those points? Uh, you know, I, I, I, I've been watching,

00:14:17.700 um, Alberta internal conservative party politics for awhile. Um, I think folks would have been

00:14:22.380 complained about the process. In fact, they were complaining about the process that there

00:14:26.060 wasn't a mail-in ballot at first. And then when it switched to a mail-in ballot, uh, they were

00:14:29.900 upset about that being tinkered towards Jason Kenney's favor. Um, ultimately these decisions are

00:14:34.620 made by a party board of volunteers. They of course, um, listen to the leader's opinions, but, um, it,

00:14:41.580 my view was that, uh, the party board had a tough choice to make, um, about how to actually

00:14:47.260 process the vote. Um, uh, like alternatively, if they maintained, uh, uh, in-person voting at a

00:14:53.260 single location in Red Deer, um, uh, the voting day would have been scandalous in itself. People

00:14:58.540 wouldn't have been able to vote, find parking. There would have been hour long lineups. So the

00:15:02.700 party needed to figure out a, uh, um, a solution. Uh, one of the solutions that, that could have

00:15:07.820 happened was in-person, uh, voting across all 87 ridings. Uh, but to organize that in a period of

00:15:13.740 a few weeks would have been a huge task, uh, to make sure that that was held with integrity as

00:15:19.180 well. So I think the party made the best decision they could in the situation that they were in.

00:15:23.420 Uh, perhaps it could have, um, been, uh, made that decision earlier, uh, probably would have, uh,

00:15:29.020 you know, insulated them from some of the criticism, but, um, at the end of the day,

00:15:32.780 I think they, they were, uh, the party who's obviously in charge of executing this vote,

00:15:37.260 um, did the best that they could. We'll be back with more full comment in just a moment.

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00:17:43.340 Evan, one thing I find very fascinating about this whole story is the level of debate that Jason

00:17:49.180 Kenney has allowed within his own party, within his own caucus, because there are other examples of

00:17:54.060 similar schisms happening in Canadian politics, and the leader moves swiftly to shut it all down.

00:17:58.460 Jason Kenney seems very welcoming of all of this. Is this because he has to, because there is such a

00:18:03.820 large constituency that is frustrated and he has to make space for it, or is it just speak to his

00:18:08.620 leadership and the kind of guy he is? I think it might be a little bit of both. You know, Jason

00:18:15.020 Kenney's obviously been involved in parliamentary politics for several decades now. I think he admires how

00:18:20.860 Westminster Parliament operates in the UK, where there's obviously quite more flexibility for

00:18:28.460 folks in the back benches to criticize cabinet and leadership than there has been here in Canada.

00:18:35.100 So I think he appreciates that model. Also, there's kind of a long strain in Alberta politics for

00:18:43.260 the idea of free votes and the ability for MLAs to first represent their constituents before they

00:18:47.980 represent the party. That was sort of an old lobby horse of the Wild Rose Party. So that culture was

00:18:54.140 certainly brought into the United Conservative Party. So, you know, I don't think any leader likes

00:18:59.500 the idea of having splinters of their caucus asking them to resign every couple of weeks. That's not ideal.

00:19:06.380 And I don't think that can be maintained long term. At some point, these folks have to decide if they're

00:19:11.580 running the next election, if they can put their name on the ballot with Jason Kenney as their leader.

00:19:17.260 And, you know, vice versa, how long Jason Kenney wants to entertain folks constantly trying to

00:19:23.420 undermine his leadership while he's in charge. It's, you know, it's a complicated situation. But, you know,

00:19:29.260 at the end of the day, frankly, I appreciate the fact that MLAs have been able to speak with a lot more

00:19:35.420 freedom in Alberta regarding government COVID policy. I remember in spring 2021, there were

00:19:41.100 about 17 MLAs who signed a joint letter saying that they weren't they didn't approve of the

00:19:46.140 government's recent COVID policy announcements, which were much more stringent lockdown policies

00:19:51.020 back then. And, you know, frankly, they were giving voice to a large part of Alberta voters and

00:19:56.220 certainly conservative voters. And, you know, that that part, that's part of a healthy democracy and

00:20:01.740 healthy democratic debate. And at the time, he certainly didn't do anything to stop that debate

00:20:08.620 from happening within the party. So, yeah, that's why in my lead and why I said I kind of like what's

00:20:13.820 going on, not because I have a personal opinion on whether or not Jason Kenney should stay or go. I

00:20:18.380 don't have an opinion. I don't have anything in this fight. But I just find it kind of refreshing

00:20:24.060 that this is something that that can happen. I mean, so many people say I'm in politics for the

00:20:27.420 ideas. Well, here you go. You know, here's the ideas. Duke it out, folks.

00:20:31.740 Yeah. And people have definitely been duking it out here in Alberta the last few weeks and months.

00:20:40.060 It's an interesting contrast, again, because here in Ontario, you know, I've got to tell you,

00:20:44.860 during the most aggressive parts of the lockdowns, there were, I received emails from grassroots

00:20:49.900 party members, donors to the party said, hey, you know, do you know if there's like any way we can get

00:20:54.300 Doug Ford removed? Can we do a leadership review? Can we have a full, like, you know, leadership contest

00:20:59.100 on all of this? We want to go in a different direction. And I think, like, technically,

00:21:02.940 maybe there's like a really obscure way to make it happen. But ultimately, no, it couldn't happen.

00:21:09.260 And I think that the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party rules didn't even particularly allow for that.

00:21:14.300 If a party leader, and this is common, I know, in pretty much all provincial and federal parties,

00:21:19.500 or most of them across the country, that if you lose an election, you must be subjected to a

00:21:25.180 leadership review within a certain amount of time after that. But for sitting prime ministers,

00:21:29.500 sitting premiers, it's generally not so much the case. Was there something, Evan, is there something

00:21:34.780 much more liberal, shall I say, or, you know, much more libertarian about the UCP,

00:21:41.500 the rules, just the drafting of the party rules that allowed this process to take place in the first

00:21:46.540 place? Yeah, I definitely think so. Well, the context behind the rules that allowed this to happen was

00:21:54.620 in 2020, at the AGM, there was a total absence of rules on how leadership review votes would be held.

00:22:03.660 And there was a drafting of leadership review rules that was developed and put towards the membership,

00:22:09.900 and that was ultimately endorsed. But the leadership review rules that were endorsed in the past, I

00:22:16.460 mean, you can sort of argue over the language and the wording as folks do at these things. But it

00:22:23.420 certainly didn't go outside of the tradition of either the Progressive Conservative Party or the Wild

00:22:28.220 Rose Party, you know, the previous entities of the current UCP. There's been a strong tradition,

00:22:35.580 both on the PC side and Wild Rose side with leadership reviews and democratic accountability

00:22:39.900 for members. It's something that the membership, frankly, expects, they see it as a strong mechanism

00:22:45.900 to make sure that the leader stays engaged with membership and responds to their concerns. And

00:22:50.140 as you said, it definitely has, you know, captured the focus of Premier Jason Kenney,

00:22:57.980 I think, as a result, probably sharpened government policy to be more reflective

00:23:01.820 of conservative values over the, you know, the past year during pretty trying circumstances for the

00:23:06.860 government. So, you know, as far as the intent of those rules and how they're supposed to work,

00:23:11.500 I definitely think they've been working. It's obviously caused some consternation and some

00:23:17.020 distractions. But yeah, it's a part of Alberta's conservative culture. Frankly, you know, thinking

00:23:23.500 back to Ralph Klein, it was ultimately his demise was a leadership review vote that happened after,

00:23:29.660 I think, his third majority government. So yeah, it's a big part of Alberta conservative politics.

00:23:35.340 Yeah, fascinating stuff. And I want you to explain the Brian Jean angle to me. I have a big

00:23:40.940 question here. So again, here in Ontario, Roman Baber was a member of the Ontario PC party. He was,

00:23:46.860 he was a caucus member, an MPP, and he published a letter well over a year ago saying he's unhappy

00:23:51.980 with these lockdowns and he doesn't support Doug Ford from doing it. And he kind of knew this would

00:23:56.140 be the end of at least his role in government. And sure enough, the next day, Doug Ford kicked him out

00:24:00.540 of caucus. There you go. So he said he doesn't support the lockdowns and boom, he was booted.

00:24:04.460 Then I hear Brian Jean is getting involved again in Alberta politics. And okay, what's that about?

00:24:09.420 I've got his Wikipedia page up right now. Return to politics is a section. And I know you had just

00:24:14.940 mentioned Brian Jean doing activism against Jason Kenney's leadership. So it says on November 3rd,

00:24:19.500 2021, Jean announced that he would seek the UCP nomination for an upcoming by-election in Fort

00:24:23.660 McMurray-Lac-Le-Biche and won this nomination contest. And I go, oh man, that's really sly of him to

00:24:29.180 to do that, knowing that later he's going to challenge Jason Kenney, because you know,

00:24:33.020 that's very duplicitous, is it not? And then it continues, Jean won the March 15th by-election,

00:24:38.620 having openly campaigned in favor of removing Kenney from the leadership. I go, oh, it wasn't

00:24:43.660 duplicitous at all. He was transparent about it from the very beginning. And surely, Kenney,

00:24:49.980 I guess if he really wanted to, could have blocked Jean doing all of this. But again, tell me,

00:24:54.540 is it Jason Kenney himself, his leadership? Is it the culture of the party that has allowed this to

00:24:59.580 transpire like it did compared to Ontario shutting all those avenues down?

00:25:04.860 Yeah, and it's an interesting question. For transparency, I actually campaigned for Brian

00:25:09.980 during his 2017 leadership bid and obviously worked for him. So temper some of my comments with that.

00:25:16.300 But yeah, I, you know, it's certainly unusual and unorthodox approach Brian chose to take

00:25:25.900 during that campaign. I think the premier's thinking on it was that there's a leadership

00:25:30.460 review coming up. And he, you know, ultimately, he's going to respond to what the members want.

00:25:36.860 And this leadership review vote, you know, is the ultimate say on the future of the party. And

00:25:44.620 I think he'd expect Brian, if the vote goes in favor of Jason Kenney, I think he'd expect Brian to

00:25:52.300 fall in line, or at the very least, begin to show unity and drop the drop the leadership question. So

00:25:59.980 yeah, most parties, you're right. You don't usually run for the party asking for the party leader to be

00:26:07.500 dethroned and replaced. So again, unorthodox, but I think the premier ultimately want the leadership

00:26:13.180 review process to sort of be the final thing. Now, I know one of the things that saw the initial

00:26:17.980 creation of the wild rose party over a decade ago was for frustration at the Alberta PC party,

00:26:24.060 seen as an entitled party, seen as an establishment party. I remember those headlines about Alison

00:26:30.300 Redford and the sky palace, the creation of those lavish facilities. And I think it's fair to say,

00:26:36.620 correct me from your Alberta perspective, if I'm mistaken, that that is really what contributed to

00:26:41.420 the rise of the NDP in that election, bringing Rachel Notley to power. To what degree are we

00:26:47.820 seeing, or at least some people claiming that we are seeing the return of a Tory entitlement culture

00:26:54.460 right now, and that that's driving some frustrations? Yeah, it's an interesting question.

00:27:00.300 Um, I, you know, I think for some that, you know, in the background, obviously any leadership review

00:27:07.820 politics, um, there, there are folks angling to obviously get, uh, Jason Kenney out of a leadership

00:27:13.900 position, but also angling to get themselves into leadership. And so that, that, that line of PC

00:27:20.380 culture of entitlement, uh, certainly will be, uh, a strong, I don't know if dog busses is the right 1.00

00:27:25.420 term, but a strong language to remind some voters who might be upset with, um, with the current

00:27:31.980 leadership that they need to get activated and involved. Um, you know, I think any government,

00:27:36.620 as soon as they get into power, they need to be pretty careful about how they, you know, obviously,

00:27:41.660 performing government, how they respond to complaints about, uh, how they're performing

00:27:46.220 in government and how they overall operate things. Uh, so, um, my, my personal view is, uh, it's,

00:27:52.860 it's certainly, um, uh, this current government's been a breath of fresh air compared to, uh,

00:27:57.900 previous, uh, PC governments. I obviously campaigned against them a few times. Uh, they've implemented

00:28:03.020 a lot of policies that the old wild rose party argued for, uh, that the old wild rose party argued

00:28:09.260 for because they thought it would help, uh, address the, uh, the so-called PC culture of entitlement.

00:28:14.220 And so my view is I don't, I don't quite see it that way. Um, I think, uh, that Jason Kenney has

00:28:20.620 in fact implemented basically every single wild rose policy that was advocated for in

00:28:25.500 the 2012 and 2015 election campaigns. In fact, went even further to address, uh, wild rose party

00:28:31.740 policy complaints. So, um, I don't, I don't think we're quite there yet where you can, uh,

00:28:36.540 accuse the government of having the same sort of baggage that the previous, uh, 44 year old, uh,

00:28:41.180 BC government had. There were some concerns about Jason Kenney and travel, some concerns about

00:28:46.140 those photos that we saw across the country of them having a seemingly pleasant dinner on the

00:28:50.700 rooftop patio of the sky palace. I have never once done the, this politician needs to resign

00:28:55.900 for traveling during COVID or whatnot. I always felt that those were just examples of why, well,

00:29:00.380 maybe those rules shouldn't be in place for the rest of us. I didn't do those gotcha moments,

00:29:03.900 but I know a lot of people were frustrated with Jason Kenney for, for a couple of those items,

00:29:08.140 uh, to what degree is that in the mix right now?

00:29:09.980 Yeah. Uh, the original travel item was, uh, with regards to some members of his staff and,

00:29:17.500 and MLAs and cabinet ministers who traveled in, uh, Christmas 2020, I believe. I don't think that's

00:29:23.900 so much, um, in window. I do think that, uh, the damage from that, that, um, outdoor lunch, um,

00:29:31.660 it was my view that, or I guess dinner, it was my view that was technically, certainly within the

00:29:36.940 rules that were in the time and the government was within a period of relaxation, uh, in fact,

00:29:41.420 full opening within, within about a week and a half from there. So I think it was, it was definitely

00:29:46.060 an error for, um, for the folks there to obviously be caught in that moment, um, and, and cause some

00:29:53.580 brand damage, but I, I don't, I don't think it's necessarily lasting, um, as intense as it was last

00:29:59.900 June, but I think it's a reminder for, for the premier and the government that, you know,

00:30:04.060 folks who were upset about how COVID went, that they made missteps and they'll have to

00:30:07.820 continue to sort of rebuild trust with, with folks that, that may have lost in those moments.

00:30:12.300 Uh, the premier himself is, uh, you know, made apologies and, uh, you know, sought to do better.

00:30:17.180 And I, I, I certainly think his commitment to, uh, um, reopening the quickest of, of any jurisdiction

00:30:24.300 sort of shows that, uh, his, his heart's always been in the right place, but he's always been,

00:30:29.180 uh, like with the healthcare capacity issue, always sort of been in a pretty challenging position.

00:30:33.820 Uh, when he's trying to think of what policy levers he had to pull when it came to COVID.

00:30:39.420 Evan, let's talk about the NDP for a moment here, because there was a time when it would

00:30:43.260 be almost inconceivable that the NDP would govern Alberta with a majority even, which is of course,

00:30:48.940 what they received, uh, back then in that election, uh, two elections ago, before Jason

00:30:53.500 Kenney became premier, Rachel Notley, she did not go anywhere. She remained in place as opposition

00:30:58.220 leader. And when we talk about facing a leadership review, well, she did just that last year and

00:31:02.940 she passed her leadership review with a stunning 98.2% approval rating. Normally we're told you

00:31:08.940 see those levels that are that high and you're supposed to, oh no, that's like Vladimir Putin,

00:31:12.780 I don't know, Robert Mugabe territory. You go, what's going on with those numbers there? It doesn't seem

00:31:16.620 right. But, uh, I, I'm sure it was completely right, but I, I, I find it interesting that Rachel

00:31:22.860 Notley clearly didn't have any major challengers for her leadership and that they're fine with her

00:31:28.380 sticking around and they clearly think she has a good chance of becoming premier once again. What

00:31:33.980 do you think is the status of the NDP right now, both within its own party and among Alberta voters?

00:31:40.540 Yeah, I, it's a good question. I think, um, well, there's a few things to consider with the NDP. Uh,

00:31:45.660 the great success of Rachel Notley was that, uh, she managed to, in essence, unite the left, um,

00:31:51.580 in the 2015 election. The, the, the left-wing vote in Alberta has actually been quite strong for a long

00:31:57.180 time. Um, you know, the, the Alberta Liberal Party would sort of consistently capture between 30 to 35

00:32:03.100 percent of the vote. The previous iterations of the NDP would capture something between eight to 10

00:32:07.660 percent. Some, some of that vote was, of course, just anti-government voting, um, at the time, you know,

00:32:13.420 really reflect partisan affiliation, but nevertheless, um, that there's sort of been consistently

00:32:18.620 between 35 to 40 percent of Alberta voters who, um, you know, wouldn't comfortably affiliate

00:32:24.140 themselves with, uh, with the provincial conservative party. And so, um, by collapsing

00:32:29.180 the left, um, she, you know, and the Alberta Liberal Party and now Alberta Party, uh, essentially

00:32:34.540 are irrelevant when it becomes, when it comes to day-to-day politics out here. Um, she, she has quite

00:32:40.060 the hammer to, um, make sure that the party stays united and to stay under her banner. And I think because

00:32:45.740 of that sort of the, the dissent that you'd usually see after losing the majority government just

00:32:50.060 wasn't there. Uh, there are different factions of the party that she has to keep together. There's 1.00

00:32:53.980 sort of the more, uh, what I'd call, um, environmentally extreme wing of the party that is less sensitive to

00:33:00.300 Alberta's, uh, economic mainstream, uh, that she has to keep in line. And there's obviously more sort of

00:33:05.660 traditional socialist aspects. And then there's folks who are sort of more economically mainstream

00:33:10.780 that she has to keep, um, all, all those folks happy altogether. So my, my sense is, is that

00:33:17.100 those folks are, are standing by for now and waiting to see what happens in this next election.

00:33:22.380 They've obviously been encouraged by the polling over the past year. It's my view that, um, if,

00:33:27.660 if the United conservative party, however, stays united and we're starting to see movement in the

00:33:31.980 polls back towards, uh, uh, incumbency with the government or support for incumbency with the

00:33:36.860 government that, uh, the NDP will have a pretty hard slog in the next election. If they don't

00:33:40.940 have a divided right vote in the cities, um, uh, they'll have a hard time in Calgary. They might

00:33:45.500 be able to expand their footprint a little bit. Um, but, um, you know, maybe in Lethbridge,

00:33:50.380 they might be able to pick up the seat. There might be a couple of rules, but they,

00:33:54.060 they're mapped for growth in, in Alberta election cycles tough. Uh, they have to essentially sweep

00:33:59.740 Calgary and Edmonton and hope they pick up some small cities, which is essentially, um, pretty close to

00:34:04.540 what happened in the 2015 election. I have a hard time picturing, um, a lot of this suburban,

00:34:09.340 um, uh, ridings in Calgary, voting NDP again, and purely just because of that vote swing. Uh, listen,

00:34:15.420 there was a riding, uh, Calgary Shaw. It's now represented by UCP, MLA Calgary, uh, Rebecca

00:34:20.300 Scholes. That riding, I was a three-way boat split. Uh, the NDP won by a hundred votes to the PC

00:34:26.140 candidate and the Wildrose candidate was 150 votes behind. So to win government again, uh, the NDP will

00:34:31.740 have to win ridings like that. I'm, I'm just not seeing in the cards for now, especially at a time

00:34:35.740 when the economy is finally recovering. And if, uh, if COVID doesn't continue to throw the government

00:34:41.420 sideways over the next year and a half, the government will have a really strong story to

00:34:44.380 Albert. So that's my overall read of NDP. And then if they lose the next election, then I think that

00:34:49.660 party will start seeing some serious fractions that expose itself. Evan, before we go, we've been

00:34:54.940 talking about turmoil within Alberta. I'd like to talk about turmoil vis-a-vis Alberta and the rest

00:35:02.140 of the country. We were talking about Western alienation quite a lot, not too long ago. Now,

00:35:06.860 of course, we're focused on what's going on in Alberta politics. To what degree are the frustrations

00:35:15.260 that fuel Western alienation also going on right now in terms of how UCP party members are, are talking to

00:35:24.380 each other and debating about where they want the party to head, whether or not they want to boot

00:35:28.540 Jason Kenney out all of those, those economic issues, dealing with the oil sands, dealing with

00:35:32.860 getting a fair shake. How is that at play here? It's a major piece. Um, you know, there, there are

00:35:39.820 some, there's a large part of the party that's critical of the premier for not being hard enough

00:35:43.740 on Ottawa, which I'm sure, um, some, some folks in Ontario would be surprised to hear.

00:35:47.740 Hmm. Um, but the, the sense out here is, uh, both the 2019 election and in this past one, um,

00:35:54.380 the federal liberals and Justin Trudeau were, um, overtly hostile to many of Alberta's, not just

00:36:00.140 economic interests, but just the, the standing within the country. Right. And that, that's,

00:36:05.260 that sense of antagonism. I mean, uh, Justin Trudeau has been the, uh, is the least popular incumbent

00:36:11.900 prime minister, certainly in my living memory. And, uh, he's, he's built his coalition purely off,

00:36:17.420 um, uh, dividing, uh, Canadians and, uh, Albertans especially have felt that. And so whether it was

00:36:24.140 on, on COVID, whether it's on, uh, economic developments, particularly in oil sands, um,

00:36:29.500 all Albertans here from Ottawa is that, uh, they're happy to keep taking our money. Um, but they're going

00:36:35.820 to keep making it harder for us to make money. Uh, I think specifically about this past budget. Um,

00:36:41.020 there were a lot of reports about new federal government windfalls, you know, helping shore

00:36:45.020 up their fiscal ship. That's all, that's not all Alberta money, but a large part of that is Alberta

00:36:50.220 money. It's money coming out of Albertans pocketbooks that goes to Ottawa and is unequally

00:36:55.820 transferred across the country instead of getting a thanks or getting, uh, uh, policies in place that

00:37:02.380 significantly help, um, address any sort of economic headwinds the province has faced. Uh, we get policies

00:37:09.500 from the environment minister talking about the, the need to essentially wipe out large swaths of

00:37:14.860 the oil sands over the next decade. So it's, that doesn't, it's remarkable what they say with impunity

00:37:19.900 with a straight face. It's remarkable. Well, and yeah, in Albertans, uh, we'll get a few more seats,

00:37:24.540 but we only have 34, uh, MPs we can send to Ottawa. And, uh, uh, frankly, you know, for any of our

00:37:31.420 listeners out, uh, out in Ontario or Atlantic Canada, like we, we need your, we need your guys'

00:37:36.460 help in the next election. Um, because, uh, yeah, it's, uh, it folks are getting really

00:37:41.340 frustrated. We saw there was an equalization referendum held, um, more than 60, I think it

00:37:46.220 was more than 65% of folks said, we want this thing scrapped. And, uh, I think unless there's

00:37:51.900 any sort of, uh, policies to address, uh, grievances out here, um, that, that anti Ottawa sentiment

00:37:58.540 will continue to increase and the pressure for provincial representatives to go even harder

00:38:03.420 against Ottawa will continue to increase as well. So Albertan conservatives divided on the question

00:38:08.380 of Jason Kenney's leadership, but very united on the question of Justin Trudeau's leadership.

00:38:12.860 And it, it ain't a positive vote on that one. Yeah, no, that's for sure. If, uh, um,

00:38:19.740 there's one name that will, even the NDP, uh, they'll agree that it's, they've, they've taken a

00:38:24.460 harder tone against, uh, Justin Trudeau and, and the, uh, federal liberals, uh, while they've now been in

00:38:29.740 opposition. So, um, it's, uh, there's no name that gets Albertans united more than, um, uh,

00:38:35.660 Justin Trudeau. Wow. That's quite something. And this, this whole thing has been quite something.

00:38:39.260 And Evan, I thank you very much, uh, for walking us through all of the nuts and bolts of what's

00:38:43.420 unfolding in Alberta politics right now. Evan Menzies, thanks for stopping by.

00:38:46.620 Evan Menzies. You bet. Anytime.

00:38:50.700 Full Comment is a post media podcast. I'm Anthony Fury. This episode was produced by Andre

00:38:55.740 Prue with theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin is the executive producer. You can subscribe to

00:39:01.340 Full Comment on Apple Podcasts, Google, Spotify, and Amazon Music. You can listen through the app

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00:39:11.100 your friends about us. Thanks for listening.

Full Comment - April 18, 2022

The joys of ‘duking it out’ over Jason Kenney

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