The joys of ‘duking it out’ over Jason Kenney
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Summary
Jason Kenney is facing dissent within his own party, the United Conservative Party, and ballots are being mailed out to almost 60,000 party members to ask them whether or not they want to see a leadership election. Kenney has said that if the majority response is yes, he is stepping down as premier. Evan Menzies, who has worked with the Wild Rose Party in Alberta, was director of communications for Alberta s United Conservative party, and now works at Crestview Strategies in Calgary.
Transcript
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Hi, I'm Anthony Fury. Thanks for joining us for the latest episode of Full Comment.
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Please consider subscribing if you haven't already.
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And I mean it. I'll confess that as someone Toronto-based, I'm just trying to figure this all out.
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Is Jason Kenney about to be booted out as the sitting premier of Alberta?
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Kenney is facing dissent within his own party, the United Conservative Party,
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and ballots are being mailed out to almost 60,000 party members
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to ask them whether or not they want to see a leadership election.
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Kenney has said that if the majority response is yes, he is stepping down.
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But I gotta say, I kind of like it if only because it seems like democracy in action,
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and we could do with a whole lot more of that stuff in Canada all across the spectrum.
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So how did this come about, and where is it headed?
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Let's break it all down with this episode's guest, Evan Menzies.
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He's worked with the Wild Rose Party in Alberta,
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he was director of communications for Alberta's United Conservative Party,
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and now he's over at Crestview Strategies, where he is a senior campaign strategist
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This is interesting times in Alberta politics, I must say.
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and at the time it seemed like Alberta was paving the way for unorthodox political movements,
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but yeah, here we are again, definitely carving out new pathways here.
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So first of all, Jason Kenney, could he lose this vote?
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Is it in the realm of possibility that he will not be premier a month from now?
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It's definitely within the realm of possibility,
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but my instincts, just observing this, is that I think there are very loud sections of the party
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who are obviously unsatisfied with Premier Jason Kenney's leadership,
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but my general sense is that a growing segment,
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I don't know if it's fair to call them a silent majority,
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but folks who maybe aren't actively in the media cycle every day
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The fact that it's a universal vote among membership is, again,
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but I think we'll certainly help Premier Jason Kenney in his bid to get the party's support.
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All right, well, let's break down all of that stuff more in depth in a couple minutes.
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The nuts and bolts, though, of what's going on,
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we understand we've got ballots being mailed out to, like I said, almost 60,000 party members.
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The results are going to be announced on May 18th,
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so this is like a straight-up yes or no question.
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Yeah, and folks mark their ballot yes to show support for Jason Kenney.
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No is, obviously, they're looking for a leadership review,
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and the Premier's previously indicated that he's staying on with 50% plus one
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and is expecting folks in the party to essentially get behind him
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So that's, you know, that's step one here with the leadership review.
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Folks who have been against the Premier are calling for numbers in the high 70s, early 80s,
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is there are individuals out there who have been leaders of different parties before,
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whether it's, you know, in Alberta, federal, what have you, NDP,
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who have said, I need to get two-thirds or this amount.
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That's what they'll consider an acceptable leadership review number for them to stick around.
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Do you have any sense of why Jason Kenney chose 50% plus one?
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Because, of course, if he only gets just 51%, I mean, that's a pretty divided party there.
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Yeah, it's, my general sense is that the Alberta, I mean, just like every other jurisdiction,
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faced some pretty contentious debates over COVID.
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And, I mean, we're still coming out of that period.
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And my guess is the thinking from the premier is that the party going into a leadership race right now
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could be even more divisive than, say, a 55%, 60% leadership review ballot.
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And that risk of divisiveness in the party having to debate over past COVID actions could cause further splits.
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I mean, the reality is, is that the United Conservative Party has that united part in front of the name,
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but it's only five years old, has only gone through one election cycle.
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So, and obviously the premier was front and center in that debate, trying to unite the two movements.
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So, I think for him, he obviously, he, I think he's sensitive to the fact that he wants to keep the parties united.
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And, you know, if, ultimately, if he feels like a leadership race will need to be called,
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And he said so as such in his public comments and his recent speech on April 9th,
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addressed to party members that the risk of a leadership review could cause quite a bit of splintering in the,
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To what degree is the Alberta movement already splintered and it's just being sort of MacGyvered together to,
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to stay in place by whatever it is, people obliging to be in this party together,
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or Jason Kenney through sheer force of, or of will, as you pointed out,
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being the guy to really unite the party that he's just the one keeping it together.
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I mean, to what degree would you say the party is a naturally united party right now?
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And to what degree is it a band-aid amalgam of other groups?
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Yeah, that's a really interesting, interesting and complex question.
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Again, we, we have to tie this all back into COVID, but I mean,
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the, the sort of different parts of the tent here are pretty complex.
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There's obviously a pretty strong rural and urban divide within the party.
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Um, again, that's not unusual in any conservative party, right?
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Uh, you'll, you'll find a pretty strong libertarian bent out here in Alberta.
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Obviously, uh, you know, the brand of Alberta conservatism is pretty synonymous with,
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with folks who are passionate and loving of freedom and, uh, and very anti Ottawa.
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And so there's that sort of section of the party that, uh, it's been a tough couple of years.
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Uh, we've seen, uh, Trudeau elected not once, but twice and pretty, uh, uh, on campaigns that were,
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I think, uh, uh, at best pretty negative against Alberta.
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Uh, then we had COVID, which brought in restrictions and, uh, in defense of the premier,
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he was always the last to bring them in and the first to, uh, uh, to repeal them.
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And of course we, we had the freedom convoy movement in January that I think was kind of
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an explosion of a lot of, uh, pent up anger and frustration over the past couple of years.
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So there's, um, but, you know, and then there's other folks in the party who,
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who wanted a more moderate approach on, on COVID policy than what even premier Jason
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Uh, perhaps they would have preferred, uh, the way Ontario went, which, uh, in my view,
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it was certainly a little bit more aggressive on the COVID file than we were out here.
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And so, yeah, so all those, all those different factors and emotions are, are kind of,
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And because of the intensity of the moment, uh, the intensity of the fight for freedom,
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I mean, we can see that in the federal campaign right now with, with folks lining behind PR's,
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uh, probably have some message, message on freedom.
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Um, I, I think there's just a lot of, I, I, yeah, I use that word intensity again to describe
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Um, I think the premier is hoping that as, as with Omicron and COVID begins to fade in
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the background, that, that the party members can sort of get back to first principles, talking
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about freedom, talking about balanced budgets, talking about choice and education fixes to
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Now, one of the things that a lot of people feel is that they don't want to so much put
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this in the rear view mirror until they have had a public inquiry, a commission, a full airing
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And because I know hearing from at least a lot of people in Ontario who were philosophical
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conservatives, who were very unhappy with what Doug Ford did, they say, I didn't join
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a conservative party so I could micromanage people's lives.
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I take COVID seriously, want to protect the high risk people.
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But the idea that I didn't sign up for this party so I could tell people, this is how far
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Uh, you must wear this mask or else we're going to call the cops on you.
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And I do feel like there's been, or there should have been a major debate among conservatives
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about what direction they went ahead and that they never had.
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And I know that Jason Kenney's saying, I'd like to put some of this behind me.
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And Doug Ford would like to totally, uh, make people forget about all the things that he
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But a lot of people say they can't move forward until they've had that airing of grievances.
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Yeah, uh, I, I certainly think that's the case.
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Um, I, you know, Danielle Smith, who, uh, you know, for folks who may not remember was
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a leader of the wild rose party and eventually crossed over the PC party in, uh, in 2015 or
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2014, uh, she's sort of stated that she's open or hoping to run for leader of, uh, the
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I think she's definitely representing that sort of voice of frustration, uh, among people
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who are frustrated with COVID, although I, I certainly don't think she's the face for
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it, but yeah, I, you know, the premier himself has talked about a need to, uh, to review what
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Um, and I, I don't think that would be a bad political or tactical move for, uh, well,
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not just conservative governments, but governments of all stripes to, uh, have, you know, whether
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it's some sort of public review or, or inquiry to, to understand how decisions were made to
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understand, you know, uh, were we ready for this pandemic?
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What are we going to do to be ready for the next one?
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I mean, you'd certainly be familiar with it, but the fact that we spent half a trillion
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dollars, uh, and went through two years of it, like sometimes, um, nonsensical COVID policies
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that created a huge societal divisions, uh, we don't need to go through that again.
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So yeah, there's definitely lots of folks out here who would, who would like to have their
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say and, and, uh, you know, inform government policy to make sure things like that don't happen
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again. Uh, the big focus of course, as well, is what are we going to do about our healthcare
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system? The fact that we have healthcare systems across the country that, that are at the threat
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of a total collapse, uh, because of a few hundred ICU patients, uh, is something that, um, seriously
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And it's shameful. It's embarrassing. It's scandalous that they can say, you got to shut
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down the kids' schools, uh, in case there are 200 persons who need an ICU, but 300, that
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was the number they used here in Ontario. I don't know about the Alberta number. I mean,
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it's, it's, it's maddening. Yeah. And yeah, at the peak of the Delta wave out here, I think
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we had about 250 and that, that was, um, uh, anything higher was essentially, uh, total
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cancellation of surgeries and triage. I mean, in defense of the premier, um, he didn't close
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schools down again. And, uh, while there was a COVID passport pass, um, which was certainly
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contentious, um, nothing really closed down after, um, May, 20, uh, 21, um, unless
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of course, uh, when you get into the vaccine passport, but yeah, it's, uh, it's, uh, it's
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outrageous. And obviously, um, on public policy front, um, all leaders, uh, including here
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in Alberta need to show, um, not just their supporters, their base, but, um, all voters
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Yeah. We had a full lockdown here in Ontario in January of not 2021, 2022. So ours was more
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extreme, more severe. Evan, to still pick up on the mechanics of the vote. I understand there
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was going to be an in-person vote in Red Deer initially, but then that changed. What were
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the original plans and why did they change? Yeah. So they, uh, the, they, the party set
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up a special general meeting set up for leadership review. Uh, the party's bylaws that were passed
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at, uh, uh, an AGM in 2020 required a leadership review to either be held, uh, this year or the
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year prior, uh, the party board selected this year for leadership review. And then there were
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some constituency associations who were demanding that it be held earlier. Some wanted it later
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in the year. Uh, they selected, um, a period that was earlier, but because, um, April was
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so close to the party's last AGM in November, the party chose to create a special general
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meeting, uh, designed specifically for the leadership review vote. Um, as a result, um, there,
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I think there was a, certainly it allowed people to activate and mobilize around the single
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event, uh, on the leadership review process. And there was incredible engagement, unlike
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anything we've seen before here in Alberta, um, for context, uh, most AGMs in Alberta or,
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or leadership review processes, uh, whether it was with the PC party or the wild rose party,
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I don't think we had ever seen anything higher than 2,500 people attend. Uh, this one in Red
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Deer, uh, more than 15,000 registrants. And the party was estimating more than 20,000 people
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to show up at a single hotel for one day of voting in Red Deer. So as a result, the party
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was faced with a tough question logistically to hold a vote, uh, with 20,000 folks at a
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hotel in Red Deer, um, uh, great, frankly, I don't think it's just my opinion, but, um,
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just the cold hard facts would have been impossible. Uh, there were worries about parking people's
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ability to vote. The fact is, even if you had 12, 14 hours of voting, um, that would have
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meant you had to process something like, uh, one vote every two seconds. So the party had
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to make a decision about how, how to, uh, create an alternative for voting.
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Now, I know there has been some accusations that Jason Kenney wanted to move to a system
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that is more favorable to him getting votes, uh, that support his leadership and him sticking
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around. Do you see any validity to those points? Uh, you know, I, I, I, I've been watching,
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um, Alberta internal conservative party politics for awhile. Um, I think folks would have been
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complained about the process. In fact, they were complaining about the process that there
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wasn't a mail-in ballot at first. And then when it switched to a mail-in ballot, uh, they were
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upset about that being tinkered towards Jason Kenney's favor. Um, ultimately these decisions are
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made by a party board of volunteers. They of course, um, listen to the leader's opinions, but, um, it,
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my view was that, uh, the party board had a tough choice to make, um, about how to actually
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process the vote. Um, uh, like alternatively, if they maintained, uh, uh, in-person voting at a
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single location in Red Deer, um, uh, the voting day would have been scandalous in itself. People
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wouldn't have been able to vote, find parking. There would have been hour long lineups. So the
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party needed to figure out a, uh, um, a solution. Uh, one of the solutions that, that could have
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happened was in-person, uh, voting across all 87 ridings. Uh, but to organize that in a period of
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a few weeks would have been a huge task, uh, to make sure that that was held with integrity as
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well. So I think the party made the best decision they could in the situation that they were in.
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Uh, perhaps it could have, um, been, uh, made that decision earlier, uh, probably would have, uh,
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you know, insulated them from some of the criticism, but, um, at the end of the day,
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I think they, they were, uh, the party who's obviously in charge of executing this vote,
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um, did the best that they could. We'll be back with more full comment in just a moment.
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Evan, one thing I find very fascinating about this whole story is the level of debate that Jason
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Kenney has allowed within his own party, within his own caucus, because there are other examples of
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similar schisms happening in Canadian politics, and the leader moves swiftly to shut it all down.
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Jason Kenney seems very welcoming of all of this. Is this because he has to, because there is such a
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large constituency that is frustrated and he has to make space for it, or is it just speak to his
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leadership and the kind of guy he is? I think it might be a little bit of both. You know, Jason
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Kenney's obviously been involved in parliamentary politics for several decades now. I think he admires how
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Westminster Parliament operates in the UK, where there's obviously quite more flexibility for
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folks in the back benches to criticize cabinet and leadership than there has been here in Canada.
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So I think he appreciates that model. Also, there's kind of a long strain in Alberta politics for
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the idea of free votes and the ability for MLAs to first represent their constituents before they
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represent the party. That was sort of an old lobby horse of the Wild Rose Party. So that culture was
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certainly brought into the United Conservative Party. So, you know, I don't think any leader likes
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the idea of having splinters of their caucus asking them to resign every couple of weeks. That's not ideal.
00:19:06.380
And I don't think that can be maintained long term. At some point, these folks have to decide if they're
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running the next election, if they can put their name on the ballot with Jason Kenney as their leader.
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And, you know, vice versa, how long Jason Kenney wants to entertain folks constantly trying to
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undermine his leadership while he's in charge. It's, you know, it's a complicated situation. But, you know,
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at the end of the day, frankly, I appreciate the fact that MLAs have been able to speak with a lot more
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freedom in Alberta regarding government COVID policy. I remember in spring 2021, there were
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about 17 MLAs who signed a joint letter saying that they weren't they didn't approve of the
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government's recent COVID policy announcements, which were much more stringent lockdown policies
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back then. And, you know, frankly, they were giving voice to a large part of Alberta voters and
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certainly conservative voters. And, you know, that that part, that's part of a healthy democracy and
00:20:01.740
healthy democratic debate. And at the time, he certainly didn't do anything to stop that debate
00:20:08.620
from happening within the party. So, yeah, that's why in my lead and why I said I kind of like what's
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going on, not because I have a personal opinion on whether or not Jason Kenney should stay or go. I
00:20:18.380
don't have an opinion. I don't have anything in this fight. But I just find it kind of refreshing
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that this is something that that can happen. I mean, so many people say I'm in politics for the
00:20:27.420
ideas. Well, here you go. You know, here's the ideas. Duke it out, folks.
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Yeah. And people have definitely been duking it out here in Alberta the last few weeks and months.
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It's an interesting contrast, again, because here in Ontario, you know, I've got to tell you,
00:20:44.860
during the most aggressive parts of the lockdowns, there were, I received emails from grassroots
00:20:49.900
party members, donors to the party said, hey, you know, do you know if there's like any way we can get
00:20:54.300
Doug Ford removed? Can we do a leadership review? Can we have a full, like, you know, leadership contest
00:20:59.100
on all of this? We want to go in a different direction. And I think, like, technically,
00:21:02.940
maybe there's like a really obscure way to make it happen. But ultimately, no, it couldn't happen.
00:21:09.260
And I think that the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party rules didn't even particularly allow for that.
00:21:14.300
If a party leader, and this is common, I know, in pretty much all provincial and federal parties,
00:21:19.500
or most of them across the country, that if you lose an election, you must be subjected to a
00:21:25.180
leadership review within a certain amount of time after that. But for sitting prime ministers,
00:21:29.500
sitting premiers, it's generally not so much the case. Was there something, Evan, is there something
00:21:34.780
much more liberal, shall I say, or, you know, much more libertarian about the UCP,
00:21:41.500
the rules, just the drafting of the party rules that allowed this process to take place in the first
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place? Yeah, I definitely think so. Well, the context behind the rules that allowed this to happen was
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in 2020, at the AGM, there was a total absence of rules on how leadership review votes would be held.
00:22:03.660
And there was a drafting of leadership review rules that was developed and put towards the membership,
00:22:09.900
and that was ultimately endorsed. But the leadership review rules that were endorsed in the past, I
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mean, you can sort of argue over the language and the wording as folks do at these things. But it
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certainly didn't go outside of the tradition of either the Progressive Conservative Party or the Wild
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Rose Party, you know, the previous entities of the current UCP. There's been a strong tradition,
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both on the PC side and Wild Rose side with leadership reviews and democratic accountability
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for members. It's something that the membership, frankly, expects, they see it as a strong mechanism
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to make sure that the leader stays engaged with membership and responds to their concerns. And
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as you said, it definitely has, you know, captured the focus of Premier Jason Kenney,
00:22:57.980
I think, as a result, probably sharpened government policy to be more reflective
00:23:01.820
of conservative values over the, you know, the past year during pretty trying circumstances for the
00:23:06.860
government. So, you know, as far as the intent of those rules and how they're supposed to work,
00:23:11.500
I definitely think they've been working. It's obviously caused some consternation and some
00:23:17.020
distractions. But yeah, it's a part of Alberta's conservative culture. Frankly, you know, thinking
00:23:23.500
back to Ralph Klein, it was ultimately his demise was a leadership review vote that happened after,
00:23:29.660
I think, his third majority government. So yeah, it's a big part of Alberta conservative politics.
00:23:35.340
Yeah, fascinating stuff. And I want you to explain the Brian Jean angle to me. I have a big
00:23:40.940
question here. So again, here in Ontario, Roman Baber was a member of the Ontario PC party. He was,
00:23:46.860
he was a caucus member, an MPP, and he published a letter well over a year ago saying he's unhappy
00:23:51.980
with these lockdowns and he doesn't support Doug Ford from doing it. And he kind of knew this would
00:23:56.140
be the end of at least his role in government. And sure enough, the next day, Doug Ford kicked him out
00:24:00.540
of caucus. There you go. So he said he doesn't support the lockdowns and boom, he was booted.
00:24:04.460
Then I hear Brian Jean is getting involved again in Alberta politics. And okay, what's that about?
00:24:09.420
I've got his Wikipedia page up right now. Return to politics is a section. And I know you had just
00:24:14.940
mentioned Brian Jean doing activism against Jason Kenney's leadership. So it says on November 3rd,
00:24:19.500
2021, Jean announced that he would seek the UCP nomination for an upcoming by-election in Fort
00:24:23.660
McMurray-Lac-Le-Biche and won this nomination contest. And I go, oh man, that's really sly of him to
00:24:29.180
to do that, knowing that later he's going to challenge Jason Kenney, because you know,
00:24:33.020
that's very duplicitous, is it not? And then it continues, Jean won the March 15th by-election,
00:24:38.620
having openly campaigned in favor of removing Kenney from the leadership. I go, oh, it wasn't
00:24:43.660
duplicitous at all. He was transparent about it from the very beginning. And surely, Kenney,
00:24:49.980
I guess if he really wanted to, could have blocked Jean doing all of this. But again, tell me,
00:24:54.540
is it Jason Kenney himself, his leadership? Is it the culture of the party that has allowed this to
00:24:59.580
transpire like it did compared to Ontario shutting all those avenues down?
00:25:04.860
Yeah, and it's an interesting question. For transparency, I actually campaigned for Brian
00:25:09.980
during his 2017 leadership bid and obviously worked for him. So temper some of my comments with that.
00:25:16.300
But yeah, I, you know, it's certainly unusual and unorthodox approach Brian chose to take
00:25:25.900
during that campaign. I think the premier's thinking on it was that there's a leadership
00:25:30.460
review coming up. And he, you know, ultimately, he's going to respond to what the members want.
00:25:36.860
And this leadership review vote, you know, is the ultimate say on the future of the party. And
00:25:44.620
I think he'd expect Brian, if the vote goes in favor of Jason Kenney, I think he'd expect Brian to
00:25:52.300
fall in line, or at the very least, begin to show unity and drop the drop the leadership question. So
00:25:59.980
yeah, most parties, you're right. You don't usually run for the party asking for the party leader to be
00:26:07.500
dethroned and replaced. So again, unorthodox, but I think the premier ultimately want the leadership
00:26:13.180
review process to sort of be the final thing. Now, I know one of the things that saw the initial
00:26:17.980
creation of the wild rose party over a decade ago was for frustration at the Alberta PC party,
00:26:24.060
seen as an entitled party, seen as an establishment party. I remember those headlines about Alison
00:26:30.300
Redford and the sky palace, the creation of those lavish facilities. And I think it's fair to say,
00:26:36.620
correct me from your Alberta perspective, if I'm mistaken, that that is really what contributed to
00:26:41.420
the rise of the NDP in that election, bringing Rachel Notley to power. To what degree are we
00:26:47.820
seeing, or at least some people claiming that we are seeing the return of a Tory entitlement culture
00:26:54.460
right now, and that that's driving some frustrations? Yeah, it's an interesting question.
00:27:00.300
Um, I, you know, I think for some that, you know, in the background, obviously any leadership review
00:27:07.820
politics, um, there, there are folks angling to obviously get, uh, Jason Kenney out of a leadership
00:27:13.900
position, but also angling to get themselves into leadership. And so that, that, that line of PC
00:27:20.380
culture of entitlement, uh, certainly will be, uh, a strong, I don't know if dog busses is the right
00:27:25.420
term, but a strong language to remind some voters who might be upset with, um, with the current
00:27:31.980
leadership that they need to get activated and involved. Um, you know, I think any government,
00:27:36.620
as soon as they get into power, they need to be pretty careful about how they, you know, obviously,
00:27:41.660
performing government, how they respond to complaints about, uh, how they're performing
00:27:46.220
in government and how they overall operate things. Uh, so, um, my, my personal view is, uh, it's,
00:27:52.860
it's certainly, um, uh, this current government's been a breath of fresh air compared to, uh,
00:27:57.900
previous, uh, PC governments. I obviously campaigned against them a few times. Uh, they've implemented
00:28:03.020
a lot of policies that the old wild rose party argued for, uh, that the old wild rose party argued
00:28:09.260
for because they thought it would help, uh, address the, uh, the so-called PC culture of entitlement.
00:28:14.220
And so my view is I don't, I don't quite see it that way. Um, I think, uh, that Jason Kenney has
00:28:20.620
in fact implemented basically every single wild rose policy that was advocated for in
00:28:25.500
the 2012 and 2015 election campaigns. In fact, went even further to address, uh, wild rose party
00:28:31.740
policy complaints. So, um, I don't, I don't think we're quite there yet where you can, uh,
00:28:36.540
accuse the government of having the same sort of baggage that the previous, uh, 44 year old, uh,
00:28:41.180
BC government had. There were some concerns about Jason Kenney and travel, some concerns about
00:28:46.140
those photos that we saw across the country of them having a seemingly pleasant dinner on the
00:28:50.700
rooftop patio of the sky palace. I have never once done the, this politician needs to resign
00:28:55.900
for traveling during COVID or whatnot. I always felt that those were just examples of why, well,
00:29:00.380
maybe those rules shouldn't be in place for the rest of us. I didn't do those gotcha moments,
00:29:03.900
but I know a lot of people were frustrated with Jason Kenney for, for a couple of those items,
00:29:08.140
uh, to what degree is that in the mix right now?
00:29:09.980
Yeah. Uh, the original travel item was, uh, with regards to some members of his staff and,
00:29:17.500
and MLAs and cabinet ministers who traveled in, uh, Christmas 2020, I believe. I don't think that's
00:29:23.900
so much, um, in window. I do think that, uh, the damage from that, that, um, outdoor lunch, um,
00:29:31.660
it was my view that, or I guess dinner, it was my view that was technically, certainly within the
00:29:36.940
rules that were in the time and the government was within a period of relaxation, uh, in fact,
00:29:41.420
full opening within, within about a week and a half from there. So I think it was, it was definitely
00:29:46.060
an error for, um, for the folks there to obviously be caught in that moment, um, and, and cause some
00:29:53.580
brand damage, but I, I don't, I don't think it's necessarily lasting, um, as intense as it was last
00:29:59.900
June, but I think it's a reminder for, for the premier and the government that, you know,
00:30:04.060
folks who were upset about how COVID went, that they made missteps and they'll have to
00:30:07.820
continue to sort of rebuild trust with, with folks that, that may have lost in those moments.
00:30:12.300
Uh, the premier himself is, uh, you know, made apologies and, uh, you know, sought to do better.
00:30:17.180
And I, I, I certainly think his commitment to, uh, um, reopening the quickest of, of any jurisdiction
00:30:24.300
sort of shows that, uh, his, his heart's always been in the right place, but he's always been,
00:30:29.180
uh, like with the healthcare capacity issue, always sort of been in a pretty challenging position.
00:30:33.820
Uh, when he's trying to think of what policy levers he had to pull when it came to COVID.
00:30:39.420
Evan, let's talk about the NDP for a moment here, because there was a time when it would
00:30:43.260
be almost inconceivable that the NDP would govern Alberta with a majority even, which is of course,
00:30:48.940
what they received, uh, back then in that election, uh, two elections ago, before Jason
00:30:53.500
Kenney became premier, Rachel Notley, she did not go anywhere. She remained in place as opposition
00:30:58.220
leader. And when we talk about facing a leadership review, well, she did just that last year and
00:31:02.940
she passed her leadership review with a stunning 98.2% approval rating. Normally we're told you
00:31:08.940
see those levels that are that high and you're supposed to, oh no, that's like Vladimir Putin,
00:31:12.780
I don't know, Robert Mugabe territory. You go, what's going on with those numbers there? It doesn't seem
00:31:16.620
right. But, uh, I, I'm sure it was completely right, but I, I, I find it interesting that Rachel
00:31:22.860
Notley clearly didn't have any major challengers for her leadership and that they're fine with her
00:31:28.380
sticking around and they clearly think she has a good chance of becoming premier once again. What
00:31:33.980
do you think is the status of the NDP right now, both within its own party and among Alberta voters?
00:31:40.540
Yeah, I, it's a good question. I think, um, well, there's a few things to consider with the NDP. Uh,
00:31:45.660
the great success of Rachel Notley was that, uh, she managed to, in essence, unite the left, um,
00:31:51.580
in the 2015 election. The, the, the left-wing vote in Alberta has actually been quite strong for a long
00:31:57.180
time. Um, you know, the, the Alberta Liberal Party would sort of consistently capture between 30 to 35
00:32:03.100
percent of the vote. The previous iterations of the NDP would capture something between eight to 10
00:32:07.660
percent. Some, some of that vote was, of course, just anti-government voting, um, at the time, you know,
00:32:13.420
really reflect partisan affiliation, but nevertheless, um, that there's sort of been consistently
00:32:18.620
between 35 to 40 percent of Alberta voters who, um, you know, wouldn't comfortably affiliate
00:32:24.140
themselves with, uh, with the provincial conservative party. And so, um, by collapsing
00:32:29.180
the left, um, she, you know, and the Alberta Liberal Party and now Alberta Party, uh, essentially
00:32:34.540
are irrelevant when it becomes, when it comes to day-to-day politics out here. Um, she, she has quite
00:32:40.060
the hammer to, um, make sure that the party stays united and to stay under her banner. And I think because
00:32:45.740
of that sort of the, the dissent that you'd usually see after losing the majority government just
00:32:50.060
wasn't there. Uh, there are different factions of the party that she has to keep together. There's
00:32:53.980
sort of the more, uh, what I'd call, um, environmentally extreme wing of the party that is less sensitive to
00:33:00.300
Alberta's, uh, economic mainstream, uh, that she has to keep in line. And there's obviously more sort of
00:33:05.660
traditional socialist aspects. And then there's folks who are sort of more economically mainstream
00:33:10.780
that she has to keep, um, all, all those folks happy altogether. So my, my sense is, is that
00:33:17.100
those folks are, are standing by for now and waiting to see what happens in this next election.
00:33:22.380
They've obviously been encouraged by the polling over the past year. It's my view that, um, if,
00:33:27.660
if the United conservative party, however, stays united and we're starting to see movement in the
00:33:31.980
polls back towards, uh, uh, incumbency with the government or support for incumbency with the
00:33:36.860
government that, uh, the NDP will have a pretty hard slog in the next election. If they don't
00:33:40.940
have a divided right vote in the cities, um, uh, they'll have a hard time in Calgary. They might
00:33:45.500
be able to expand their footprint a little bit. Um, but, um, you know, maybe in Lethbridge,
00:33:50.380
they might be able to pick up the seat. There might be a couple of rules, but they,
00:33:54.060
they're mapped for growth in, in Alberta election cycles tough. Uh, they have to essentially sweep
00:33:59.740
Calgary and Edmonton and hope they pick up some small cities, which is essentially, um, pretty close to
00:34:04.540
what happened in the 2015 election. I have a hard time picturing, um, a lot of this suburban,
00:34:09.340
um, uh, ridings in Calgary, voting NDP again, and purely just because of that vote swing. Uh, listen,
00:34:15.420
there was a riding, uh, Calgary Shaw. It's now represented by UCP, MLA Calgary, uh, Rebecca
00:34:20.300
Scholes. That riding, I was a three-way boat split. Uh, the NDP won by a hundred votes to the PC
00:34:26.140
candidate and the Wildrose candidate was 150 votes behind. So to win government again, uh, the NDP will
00:34:31.740
have to win ridings like that. I'm, I'm just not seeing in the cards for now, especially at a time
00:34:35.740
when the economy is finally recovering. And if, uh, if COVID doesn't continue to throw the government
00:34:41.420
sideways over the next year and a half, the government will have a really strong story to
00:34:44.380
Albert. So that's my overall read of NDP. And then if they lose the next election, then I think that
00:34:49.660
party will start seeing some serious fractions that expose itself. Evan, before we go, we've been
00:34:54.940
talking about turmoil within Alberta. I'd like to talk about turmoil vis-a-vis Alberta and the rest
00:35:02.140
of the country. We were talking about Western alienation quite a lot, not too long ago. Now,
00:35:06.860
of course, we're focused on what's going on in Alberta politics. To what degree are the frustrations
00:35:15.260
that fuel Western alienation also going on right now in terms of how UCP party members are, are talking to
00:35:24.380
each other and debating about where they want the party to head, whether or not they want to boot
00:35:28.540
Jason Kenney out all of those, those economic issues, dealing with the oil sands, dealing with
00:35:32.860
getting a fair shake. How is that at play here? It's a major piece. Um, you know, there, there are
00:35:39.820
some, there's a large part of the party that's critical of the premier for not being hard enough
00:35:43.740
on Ottawa, which I'm sure, um, some, some folks in Ontario would be surprised to hear.
00:35:47.740
Hmm. Um, but the, the sense out here is, uh, both the 2019 election and in this past one, um,
00:35:54.380
the federal liberals and Justin Trudeau were, um, overtly hostile to many of Alberta's, not just
00:36:00.140
economic interests, but just the, the standing within the country. Right. And that, that's,
00:36:05.260
that sense of antagonism. I mean, uh, Justin Trudeau has been the, uh, is the least popular incumbent
00:36:11.900
prime minister, certainly in my living memory. And, uh, he's, he's built his coalition purely off,
00:36:17.420
um, uh, dividing, uh, Canadians and, uh, Albertans especially have felt that. And so whether it was
00:36:24.140
on, on COVID, whether it's on, uh, economic developments, particularly in oil sands, um,
00:36:29.500
all Albertans here from Ottawa is that, uh, they're happy to keep taking our money. Um, but they're going
00:36:35.820
to keep making it harder for us to make money. Uh, I think specifically about this past budget. Um,
00:36:41.020
there were a lot of reports about new federal government windfalls, you know, helping shore
00:36:45.020
up their fiscal ship. That's all, that's not all Alberta money, but a large part of that is Alberta
00:36:50.220
money. It's money coming out of Albertans pocketbooks that goes to Ottawa and is unequally
00:36:55.820
transferred across the country instead of getting a thanks or getting, uh, uh, policies in place that
00:37:02.380
significantly help, um, address any sort of economic headwinds the province has faced. Uh, we get policies
00:37:09.500
from the environment minister talking about the, the need to essentially wipe out large swaths of
00:37:14.860
the oil sands over the next decade. So it's, that doesn't, it's remarkable what they say with impunity
00:37:19.900
with a straight face. It's remarkable. Well, and yeah, in Albertans, uh, we'll get a few more seats,
00:37:24.540
but we only have 34, uh, MPs we can send to Ottawa. And, uh, uh, frankly, you know, for any of our
00:37:31.420
listeners out, uh, out in Ontario or Atlantic Canada, like we, we need your, we need your guys'
00:37:36.460
help in the next election. Um, because, uh, yeah, it's, uh, it folks are getting really
00:37:41.340
frustrated. We saw there was an equalization referendum held, um, more than 60, I think it
00:37:46.220
was more than 65% of folks said, we want this thing scrapped. And, uh, I think unless there's
00:37:51.900
any sort of, uh, policies to address, uh, grievances out here, um, that, that anti Ottawa sentiment
00:37:58.540
will continue to increase and the pressure for provincial representatives to go even harder
00:38:03.420
against Ottawa will continue to increase as well. So Albertan conservatives divided on the question
00:38:08.380
of Jason Kenney's leadership, but very united on the question of Justin Trudeau's leadership.
00:38:12.860
And it, it ain't a positive vote on that one. Yeah, no, that's for sure. If, uh, um,
00:38:19.740
there's one name that will, even the NDP, uh, they'll agree that it's, they've, they've taken a
00:38:24.460
harder tone against, uh, Justin Trudeau and, and the, uh, federal liberals, uh, while they've now been in
00:38:29.740
opposition. So, um, it's, uh, there's no name that gets Albertans united more than, um, uh,
00:38:35.660
Justin Trudeau. Wow. That's quite something. And this, this whole thing has been quite something.
00:38:39.260
And Evan, I thank you very much, uh, for walking us through all of the nuts and bolts of what's
00:38:43.420
unfolding in Alberta politics right now. Evan Menzies, thanks for stopping by.
00:38:50.700
Full Comment is a post media podcast. I'm Anthony Fury. This episode was produced by Andre
00:38:55.740
Prue with theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin is the executive producer. You can subscribe to
00:39:01.340
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