Full Comment - The nightmare of inflation was made worse in Ottawa

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00:01:27.460 Hello, I'm Anthony Fury.

00:01:35.000 Thanks for joining us for the latest episode of Full Common.

00:01:37.520 Please consider subscribing if you haven't already.

00:01:40.420 What is going on with the Canadian economy?

00:01:43.160 With the global economy?

00:01:44.680 The cost of living seems like it's spiraling out of control, at least in some categories.

00:01:49.300 Food prices are going up, and we've even been told to expect shortages.

00:01:53.360 Gas prices have hit $2 per liter in many parts of the country.

00:01:57.460 For regular folks struggling to get by, it seems like the struggle will only get more challenging.

00:02:02.780 And we're all told to buckle up for the long haul.

00:02:05.000 This stuff might be around for quite some time.

00:02:07.420 Words like stagnation, stagflation, and recession, they are all being tossed around.

00:02:12.540 How bad is it going to get?

00:02:15.000 What's causing it?

00:02:16.240 And what can we do about it, if anything?

00:02:18.700 We need someone to level with us.

00:02:20.140 Lay it all out straight.

00:02:21.040 And that's what our guest today is going to do.

00:02:23.780 Professor Ian Lee from the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University

00:02:26.680 is back with us.

00:02:27.960 Great to have him.

00:02:28.840 Hey, Ian, thanks for joining us.

00:02:31.140 Good morning, Anthony, and thank you for inviting me.

00:02:34.220 Now, I got to say, I talked to just a lot of folks about issues of the day,

00:02:37.980 and the thing I'm hearing about more and more is just everyone saying,

00:02:40.600 wow, did you see the gas price?

00:02:42.080 Wow, did you see the price of yogurt's gone up, or this or that has gone up,

00:02:45.680 or concerns about interest rates?

00:02:47.420 I mean, this is a very vibrant thing now for people.

00:02:51.120 This is front of mind.

00:02:52.400 And like I said, for folks who don't have a lot of cash in the bank,

00:02:56.380 I mean, these are getting worrisome times.

00:03:00.540 Anthony, I completely agree.

00:03:02.520 And I don't consider myself old, but I am old enough to have lived through the 1970s.

00:03:11.420 I came as the end of the workforce in 1972.

00:03:15.560 I was 18 years old, and I lived all through the 70s when the inflation started to creep up

00:03:21.680 and creep up and creep up, and it ultimately went double digit.

00:03:26.640 It didn't start out double digit.

00:03:28.160 People seem to think it sort of went from zero to 15 overnight.

00:03:31.200 It didn't.

00:03:32.080 It started out just like now.

00:03:33.500 What we've seen in the last two years, it was two, then three, then four,

00:03:37.080 then it crept up to five, then to six, and so on.

00:03:40.640 And it's very real and pernicious.

00:03:44.300 Inflation is really pernicious because it sneaks up on you,

00:03:48.440 and it becomes embedded in every aspect of our lives, everything we buy,

00:03:53.600 everything we purchase, gasoline, heat, food, car parts, repairs, trips, everything.

00:03:59.800 So it's not some theoretical conversation.

00:04:02.460 And that's why it is actually the nightmare of central bankers,

00:04:07.200 because they know how difficult it is to put it back into the bottle,

00:04:11.840 the inflation genie in the bottle, if they allow it to get out of the bottle.

00:04:16.560 And we saw, this isn't theory.

00:04:18.900 This is not theory.

00:04:20.440 I lived through it.

00:04:21.840 I was a mortgage manager.

00:04:23.760 Bank of Montreal, main office, Ottawa,

00:04:25.880 on Wellington Street opposite West Block of Parliament in 1980,

00:04:29.320 when interest rates hit 20%, that was not a theory.

00:04:34.000 That was reality.

00:04:35.940 And anyone who says high interest rates don't kill inflation,

00:04:39.080 have not looked at the data.

00:04:40.920 I can tell you, as the rates started to go from 10% to 11% to 12% to 14%,

00:04:46.420 I had fewer and fewer customers walking through the door.

00:04:49.080 And by the time the rates hit 19, 20%,

00:04:51.060 I was basically sitting there twiddling my thumbs because I had no business.

00:04:54.600 I had no customers.

00:04:55.400 Because mortgages and home ownership, to name one,

00:04:58.700 is extremely sensitive to interest rates.

00:05:01.000 But it's not just home ownership.

00:05:03.240 It drove the economy into a deeper session,

00:05:07.500 the worst we had experienced since the Great Depression.

00:05:10.440 So that's the antidote.

00:05:11.880 But the...

00:05:12.400 Well, let me ask, before we get into the antidote then,

00:05:14.980 people are going to say,

00:05:15.880 OK, in the interim, I'm worried about my family.

00:05:18.140 How bad can it get?

00:05:19.380 I just saw a headline.

00:05:20.720 John Katsomadidis, he's a billionaire.

00:05:22.480 He runs a grocery firm in Manhattan, a grocery chain.

00:05:26.100 He's also CEO of United Refining.

00:05:27.860 And he just said that diesel rationing,

00:05:30.400 he expects it will occur this summer,

00:05:32.240 at least in the northeastern part of North America.

00:05:35.220 To me, that seems like not just diesel costs being a problem,

00:05:38.040 but also getting food to places,

00:05:41.060 transportation of goods.

00:05:43.420 Ian, how bad are things going to get in the interim,

00:05:46.160 but before the antidote's brought in?

00:05:47.660 I think they're going to get worse.

00:05:50.380 Things are going to get worse before they get better.

00:05:52.140 And that's the inevitable, unfortunate, tragic outcome

00:05:58.560 of allowing that genie to get out of the bottle.

00:06:02.760 And I do believe, and I've said so since April 2021,

00:06:08.240 at the time of the budget of April 2021,

00:06:11.380 when the central bank and the government of Canada

00:06:14.720 continued to pour gargantuan amounts of stimulus,

00:06:19.600 monetary and fiscal stimulus into the economy.

00:06:22.260 I just want to stop and unpack that for a moment.

00:06:24.620 You said that on this program a year ago.

00:06:26.280 I remember.

00:06:26.960 I did.

00:06:28.020 The fiscal stimulus was,

00:06:29.820 I want to use plain English 0.99

00:06:31.320 because that's the way I speak.

00:06:32.640 And I talk to my students that way.

00:06:34.200 When you run up a deficit,

00:06:36.060 I don't care what you're spending the deficit on.

00:06:37.960 You could be, as John Maynard Keynes famously said,

00:06:40.000 have higher workers to dig a hole in the ground every day.

00:06:43.100 At the end of the day, fill the hole back in.

00:06:45.000 It really doesn't matter whether you're spending it

00:06:47.220 on income support or on this or that.

00:06:49.220 You are stimulating the economy

00:06:51.100 when you are running deficits.

00:06:52.740 I'm not one of those people who says

00:06:53.920 that all deficits are bad.

00:06:55.520 I don't believe that.

00:06:56.700 There's a time and place for deficits,

00:06:58.220 such as in very deep recessions or depressions.

00:07:01.040 That's very Keynesian.

00:07:02.260 But what we were doing in April 2021

00:07:05.380 was we were pouring gigantic deficits

00:07:08.820 and injecting gigantic amounts of money,

00:07:11.180 billions and billions.

00:07:12.500 And almost all of the jobs lost from the pandemic

00:07:15.960 had been recovered.

00:07:17.080 When you looked, in fact,

00:07:18.320 her own numbers in that budget speech,

00:07:21.700 she was bragging about the fact 0.96

00:07:24.420 that the economy was just doing gangbusters.

00:07:27.400 And it was growing at 5% or 6% GDP growth rate.

00:07:31.540 And yet here we were pouring hundreds of billions

00:07:34.120 of dollars in deficit financing.

00:07:35.660 And so we were stimulating,

00:07:37.860 overstimulating the economy

00:07:39.000 because the crisis from an economic point of view

00:07:42.100 had come to an end,

00:07:44.100 meaning we had recovered all the bad losses

00:07:46.880 from the pandemic of the year before.

00:07:49.200 On the monetary side,

00:07:50.740 we were running rates at the lowest level.

00:07:53.400 I looked this up using data

00:07:55.260 from the Federal Reserve of the United States

00:07:57.660 and the Bank of England.

00:07:59.100 They had a graph, each one,

00:08:00.560 had a graph going back 250, 300 years

00:08:04.140 to show the rate of interest over that period of time.

00:08:08.600 300 years is the long, long run.

00:08:11.720 Interest rates in that period

00:08:12.900 in neither UK or US

00:08:15.020 had ever, ever, ever, ever once,

00:08:17.220 not ever once,

00:08:18.360 gone down to the level we've experienced

00:08:20.480 in the last two or three years

00:08:22.180 down to one quarter of one point.

00:08:23.900 So the point is the,

00:08:26.660 and again, the economy had recovered.

00:08:29.260 They even, yes, there were still people,

00:08:30.700 I'm not denying people were still getting sick from COVID

00:08:33.180 and some were tragically dying.

00:08:34.500 Of course, I don't disagree with that reality.

00:08:38.480 What I'm saying is that the economy had recovered.

00:08:41.700 The job losses had all been recovered.

00:08:44.280 The GDP was growing very strongly

00:08:46.740 and we were pumping hundreds of billions of dollars

00:08:50.240 of stimulus,

00:08:51.840 unnecessary stimulus into the economy.

00:08:54.340 And I was predicting a year ago,

00:08:56.400 this is not going to end well

00:08:58.500 because we already had savings rates

00:09:00.920 that were historically unprecedented,

00:09:02.460 which told me in plain English

00:09:04.520 that the people,

00:09:05.880 all of us getting this stimulus,

00:09:07.800 these income support programs and so forth,

00:09:10.720 literally couldn't spend all of it.

00:09:12.480 We were getting so much stimulus,

00:09:14.560 we couldn't spend it all.

00:09:15.640 So we were banking it.

00:09:16.860 So we had,

00:09:17.680 our savings rate went from 4%

00:09:19.360 to something like 30%.

00:09:20.780 Unprecedented,

00:09:22.180 but more evidence

00:09:23.220 that we were over stimulating.

00:09:25.900 So I'm not accusing

00:09:27.200 the government of Canada

00:09:28.740 or the Bank of Canada

00:09:29.960 of causing inflation.

00:09:32.120 This is spiral in inflation.

00:09:34.500 I do not believe that.

00:09:36.080 It was caused by the

00:09:37.280 shutting down of the economies

00:09:39.160 around the world

00:09:40.120 in response to the pandemic.

00:09:42.480 And that blew up the supply chains.

00:09:45.100 And that was the original driver

00:09:47.380 of inflation.

00:09:48.740 But what we were doing

00:09:50.240 was exacerbating this inflation,

00:09:53.900 very seriously exacerbating

00:09:56.440 the inflation

00:09:57.540 by pouring more and more stimulus

00:09:59.960 when the economy

00:10:01.400 had already recovered.

00:10:03.620 And so I said,

00:10:04.540 this is going to drive

00:10:06.800 inflation upward further.

00:10:09.200 And the US was doing it

00:10:10.740 and Canada was doing it.

00:10:12.320 And so now we are unfortunately

00:10:14.600 reaping the wind

00:10:16.240 of those poor or bad

00:10:18.480 fiscal and monetary policy choices

00:10:20.680 over the past year.

00:10:22.800 So Ian, you're saying

00:10:23.300 you predicted this scenario

00:10:24.500 and you did.

00:10:25.480 Like I said,

00:10:25.960 you've gone on

00:10:26.500 multiple different programs.

00:10:27.940 You were here on this podcast

00:10:28.900 a year ago

00:10:29.360 predicting this very scenario.

00:10:30.760 And one would think

00:10:31.840 that some central bankers

00:10:33.300 and other economic minds

00:10:34.440 would say,

00:10:34.820 well, yeah,

00:10:35.060 this kind of happens

00:10:36.000 when you're just,

00:10:36.760 you know,

00:10:37.000 throwing all this cash

00:10:37.820 at the floodgates.

00:10:38.600 And to your point,

00:10:39.540 Christy Freeland even said,

00:10:40.760 oh, we're actually doing okay

00:10:41.760 in a number of indicators.

00:10:42.920 They kept doing it.

00:10:44.660 And the frustration is,

00:10:46.360 is why?

00:10:47.780 Because we're here

00:10:48.420 in this situation

00:10:49.220 where life is getting rough.

00:10:51.100 And I want to talk about

00:10:52.000 the macroeconomics

00:10:52.880 of the war in Ukraine

00:10:53.640 and other aspects

00:10:54.680 in a moment as well.

00:10:55.720 But they did something

00:10:57.220 knowing that it would cause

00:10:59.880 these distortionary effects

00:11:01.680 in the economy

00:11:02.440 where, I mean,

00:11:03.860 the people who have

00:11:04.640 banked those savings,

00:11:05.760 I guess they were in a position

00:11:06.680 to bank the savings.

00:11:07.540 But I know there's a lot

00:11:08.280 of people out there

00:11:08.880 who were not and are not,

00:11:11.320 and they are now feeling

00:11:12.440 the brunt of all of this.

00:11:13.760 That ain't fair.

00:11:14.840 Did they just do it

00:11:15.880 for political feel goods?

00:11:17.740 I mean,

00:11:18.060 did nobody in a position

00:11:19.840 of authority,

00:11:20.760 Bank of Canada governor,

00:11:21.780 raise their hand and say,

00:11:22.700 guys,

00:11:23.240 stuff's going to happen

00:11:24.380 and we're not going to like it?

00:11:27.080 The answer I'm going

00:11:28.400 to come up with,

00:11:29.240 and forgive me

00:11:30.060 for being sort of academic,

00:11:31.520 but it was a wonder,

00:11:33.160 I am an academic.

00:11:34.540 There was a wonderful book

00:11:35.960 written a couple of years ago

00:11:37.120 by a very distinguished

00:11:37.960 economist at Harvard

00:11:38.880 who's the former chief

00:11:39.820 economist at the IMF

00:11:40.700 and he said,

00:11:41.880 the name of the book was

00:11:42.800 This Time It's Different.

00:11:45.460 I remember that.

00:11:46.020 And it was a wonderful book

00:11:47.880 because decision makers

00:11:50.680 at the top of countries

00:11:51.840 tend to think that,

00:11:53.440 okay, yes,

00:11:53.900 I know the history

00:11:54.560 and I know the theory

00:11:55.420 and I know the research

00:11:56.320 and the scholarship

00:11:56.940 and the evidence,

00:11:58.060 but hey,

00:11:59.180 we're smarter than those people

00:12:00.560 because we know a lot more,

00:12:02.120 we're more modern,

00:12:03.060 we're more sophisticated.

00:12:03.980 I want to just give you

00:12:05.040 a quick historical example

00:12:06.220 and it is not

00:12:06.840 from ancient history

00:12:07.600 because it affected

00:12:08.500 my life back in the 70s.

00:12:10.860 Canada did not cause

00:12:12.140 the inflation

00:12:12.760 of the 70s in Canada.

00:12:14.420 It's widely,

00:12:15.500 the consensus view

00:12:16.800 amongst large numbers

00:12:18.300 of economists,

00:12:19.040 policy wonks

00:12:19.680 and so forth

00:12:20.200 was it was caused

00:12:21.460 by then-President

00:12:22.940 Lyndon Johnson's

00:12:24.160 very serious mistake

00:12:26.060 to fight both

00:12:28.100 the war in Vietnam

00:12:29.040 and his great society

00:12:30.860 war on poverty

00:12:31.640 with zero tax increases

00:12:33.500 and he threatened

00:12:34.640 the Federal Reserve,

00:12:35.540 don't you dare

00:12:36.180 raise interest rates.

00:12:37.340 So he was pouring

00:12:38.180 hundreds of billions

00:12:39.440 of dollars of money

00:12:41.040 into the American economy

00:12:43.440 not to stimulate it

00:12:45.520 but to fight the war

00:12:46.280 in Vietnam

00:12:47.180 and the war on poverty.

00:12:48.920 Because our economies

00:12:49.860 are tightly integrated,

00:12:51.260 that inflation seeped

00:12:52.460 over into Canada.

00:12:53.620 We could have responded

00:12:54.960 in the 70s

00:12:55.900 when that came into Canada

00:12:57.180 by putting up

00:12:58.380 interest rates

00:12:59.080 and cutting back

00:13:00.480 on our spending.

00:13:01.420 However,

00:13:02.120 the Prime Minister,

00:13:03.040 Pierre Elliott Trudeau

00:13:03.880 at the time,

00:13:04.820 didn't and they

00:13:05.960 started to run

00:13:06.880 fairly significant deficits

00:13:09.300 even though the economy

00:13:11.340 was growing

00:13:12.180 very strongly

00:13:13.840 throughout the 70s

00:13:15.000 and the interest rates

00:13:17.780 were kept relatively low

00:13:19.960 and relative to that time.

00:13:22.560 And so what happened

00:13:23.420 was inflation started

00:13:24.640 to become embedded

00:13:25.680 in the heads

00:13:26.820 of all of us

00:13:27.760 including me.

00:13:28.920 I bought my first house

00:13:30.100 in 1976.

00:13:31.720 It was a townhouse

00:13:32.800 on the edge of Ottawa

00:13:33.960 and the reason I bought it

00:13:34.980 was because

00:13:36.040 this casino mentality

00:13:38.180 had become embedded

00:13:39.520 in Canada

00:13:40.380 where it was 0.97

00:13:40.840 you were crazy

00:13:41.780 to save money 0.88

00:13:42.560 for the future

00:13:43.180 because you knew

00:13:44.340 that if you save

00:13:45.380 the price would go up

00:13:46.300 faster than the

00:13:47.360 in the succeeding months

00:13:49.000 or a year or two

00:13:50.220 than if you'd save

00:13:51.200 the money.

00:13:51.700 So what it did

00:13:52.340 was everybody went out

00:13:53.320 and spend, spend, spend,

00:13:54.800 borrow, borrow, borrow

00:13:55.680 because it didn't make sense

00:13:56.940 to save.

00:13:57.800 That's the pernicious

00:13:58.700 impact of inflation

00:14:00.060 and it took

00:14:00.920 a 20% interest rate

00:14:02.420 to finally kill it.

00:14:04.020 In this instance 1.00

00:14:05.000 to your question

00:14:05.880 Anthony

00:14:06.700 because it's an excellent question

00:14:07.840 I think that

00:14:09.340 and when I use

00:14:10.900 the word politicized

00:14:12.100 I'm partially agreeing

00:14:13.140 with you

00:14:13.400 I do not want to suggest

00:14:14.900 that Mr. Macklem

00:14:16.500 who's a highly educated

00:14:17.560 individual

00:14:18.020 highly experienced

00:14:18.840 is a partisan

00:14:19.840 in any way shape or form.

00:14:21.080 I've met him

00:14:21.520 at downtown

00:14:21.980 professional events

00:14:22.800 I don't believe it

00:14:23.580 however I think

00:14:25.020 that in the last

00:14:25.740 10 or 15 or 20 years

00:14:27.640 maybe since the turn

00:14:28.620 of the new millennium

00:14:29.700 in Canada

00:14:31.360 and the US

00:14:32.360 but certainly in Canada

00:14:33.600 politicians

00:14:35.560 have become

00:14:36.260 absolutely freaked out

00:14:38.260 by the idea

00:14:39.220 of any negative growth

00:14:40.960 or any increase

00:14:42.080 in unemployment

00:14:42.740 in a recession

00:14:43.920 or whatever

00:14:44.540 and so the calls

00:14:45.880 come out

00:14:46.360 from academics

00:14:47.800 from think tanks

00:14:48.800 from anti-poverty groups

00:14:49.980 and so forth

00:14:50.540 hey you've got to do something

00:14:52.040 there's this crisis

00:14:52.860 GDP just went down 2%

00:14:54.660 the unemployment rate

00:14:55.640 went up 1.5 points

00:14:57.360 and so

00:14:58.220 they pour on

00:14:59.520 the call goes out

00:15:01.420 for massive spending

00:15:02.960 massive stimulus

00:15:04.100 even if it's a relatively

00:15:05.580 small problem

00:15:06.900 and in this instance

00:15:08.760 with COVID

00:15:09.480 I was watching it

00:15:10.420 from the moment

00:15:10.880 it happened

00:15:11.360 I'm talking to March

00:15:12.700 April 2020 lockdown

00:15:14.320 I knew right away

00:15:15.600 we all knew right away

00:15:16.520 that you know

00:15:17.140 if you send home

00:15:17.820 three quarters of the economy

00:15:18.920 you're going to drive

00:15:19.540 the unemployment rate

00:15:20.600 through the roof

00:15:21.040 but I also knew

00:15:22.320 that it was going

00:15:23.280 to be temporary

00:15:23.900 because it was

00:15:24.520 an artificial recession

00:15:26.520 it wasn't an organic

00:15:27.960 natural recession

00:15:29.080 where the economy

00:15:30.180 had run out of steam

00:15:31.360 in this instance

00:15:32.280 it was artificially

00:15:33.440 created by policy makers

00:15:35.040 ordering everybody

00:15:36.080 to go home

00:15:36.740 so what that suggested

00:15:38.040 to me was the moment

00:15:39.040 everybody

00:15:39.580 the lockdown ended

00:15:40.460 the economy

00:15:41.400 would snap back

00:15:42.540 like a sharp elastic band

00:15:44.040 a really stretchy

00:15:45.580 elastic band

00:15:46.420 and that's exactly

00:15:47.600 what happened

00:15:48.240 after each lockdown

00:15:49.720 the economy

00:15:50.340 snapped right back

00:15:51.520 and yet

00:15:52.420 the central bank

00:15:54.000 of Canada

00:15:54.780 and Christia Freeland

00:15:56.040 you read her comments

00:15:57.460 in that budget speech

00:15:58.440 it was truly

00:15:59.260 cognitive dissonance

00:16:01.660 in one paragraph

00:16:02.400 she was saying

00:16:02.960 the economy's booming

00:16:04.580 it's just doing

00:16:05.820 fantastically

00:16:06.760 and in the next paragraph

00:16:07.820 she said

00:16:08.300 we're in this deep

00:16:09.500 COVID recession

00:16:11.600 now you cannot be

00:16:13.060 in a deep recession

00:16:14.400 and booming

00:16:15.600 at the same time

00:16:16.760 A contradicts B

00:16:18.320 it is literally

00:16:20.340 and this cognitive dissonance

00:16:21.980 this absolute contradiction

00:16:23.460 it's in the words

00:16:25.280 it's not me misinterpreting

00:16:26.800 I highlighted them

00:16:27.900 in yellow

00:16:28.320 in my PDF document

00:16:30.320 my digital document

00:16:31.460 where she was

00:16:32.440 on the one hand

00:16:33.080 literally in one paragraph

00:16:34.120 extolling the extraordinary

00:16:35.380 growth and recovery

00:16:36.440 of the economy

00:16:37.140 and the next thing

00:16:38.300 we've got to spend

00:16:39.120 a lot more

00:16:40.080 income support

00:16:42.180 because we're in

00:16:43.320 this deep recession

00:16:44.120 well you cannot be both

00:16:45.340 but can't it be true

00:16:46.580 in some sense

00:16:47.200 because one of the things

00:16:48.020 that I'm trying to figure out

00:16:49.700 and maybe everybody else

00:16:52.000 is as well

00:16:52.740 maybe all the economists

00:16:53.500 are as well

00:16:54.140 is you've got

00:16:55.100 the class

00:16:55.720 the laptop class

00:16:56.900 and I'm a member of them

00:16:58.300 okay we were sent home

00:16:59.260 you're not going

00:16:59.680 into the office anymore

00:17:00.480 so I did not get laid off

00:17:02.140 so what happened was

00:17:02.900 I didn't spend

00:17:03.500 for transportation

00:17:04.140 and I didn't eat out

00:17:05.860 so not only did I just

00:17:06.800 not eat McDonald's

00:17:07.620 as many times a month

00:17:08.700 but I also just didn't

00:17:09.560 spend on that money

00:17:10.340 period

00:17:10.680 so you've got all that cash

00:17:12.220 and you have a lot of

00:17:13.100 middle class

00:17:13.860 upper middle class people

00:17:14.800 who I think now

00:17:15.400 their big concern

00:17:16.080 with inflation

00:17:16.640 is just oh I have

00:17:17.520 whatever it is

00:17:18.360 20 grand 50 grand

00:17:19.280 to invest

00:17:19.780 what do I do

00:17:20.340 I don't know the choices

00:17:21.060 to make

00:17:21.400 that's my big drama in life

00:17:22.440 and then this whole

00:17:23.300 other category of people

00:17:24.280 who are like yeah

00:17:24.840 nice problem to have buddy

00:17:26.360 me I lost my job

00:17:27.880 you know we're scraping

00:17:29.160 to get by

00:17:29.820 we live in an area

00:17:30.620 where I have to drive

00:17:32.320 an F-150

00:17:32.940 I have to gas up

00:17:34.060 to go to work

00:17:34.680 oh boy

00:17:35.340 I am really feeling

00:17:36.720 those gas prices

00:17:37.600 the grocery prices

00:17:38.800 are going up

00:17:39.180 have I gotten a raise

00:17:39.980 no I haven't gotten a raise

00:17:41.160 and I don't have that

00:17:41.940 cash in the bank

00:17:42.680 and those people

00:17:43.280 are really hurting

00:17:43.940 so I feel like we do

00:17:45.240 have these

00:17:45.700 I don't know if two solitudes

00:17:46.920 is the right time

00:17:47.720 but we do have

00:17:48.600 you know good problems

00:17:50.840 to have

00:17:51.280 and really bad problems

00:17:52.560 to have

00:17:53.020 Anthony I don't dispute

00:17:54.500 what you said

00:17:55.240 in fact the economist

00:17:56.840 at the time

00:17:57.520 about a year ago

00:17:58.280 summarized it brilliantly

00:17:59.800 they called it

00:18:00.400 the 90-10 economy

00:18:01.880 90% of the

00:18:04.080 and they estimated

00:18:05.020 their estimate

00:18:05.900 was about 90%

00:18:07.140 of the jobs

00:18:07.860 in the UK GDP

00:18:09.160 had

00:18:10.320 were still continuing

00:18:11.440 to be paid

00:18:12.060 they were working

00:18:12.960 from home

00:18:13.400 knowledge workers

00:18:14.080 professors

00:18:14.600 people like you

00:18:15.460 but 10%

00:18:16.740 the in-person servers

00:18:18.580 as I like to call them

00:18:19.540 people in restaurants

00:18:20.500 or hotels

00:18:21.160 accommodation

00:18:21.920 airlines

00:18:22.900 and so forth

00:18:23.720 were just absolutely

00:18:24.920 annihilated

00:18:25.500 and devastated

00:18:26.180 what we did

00:18:27.620 and the US did too

00:18:29.360 was we decided

00:18:30.680 to not just target

00:18:31.960 the 10% 0.99

00:18:32.600 who really were

00:18:33.580 suffering enormously

00:18:34.800 we way over stimulated

00:18:36.900 by dispersing

00:18:37.860 massive amounts of money

00:18:39.180 to people who should

00:18:40.180 never have received it

00:18:41.180 I was making

00:18:43.300 this argument

00:18:43.720 at the time

00:18:44.180 without the data

00:18:45.100 the data came in

00:18:46.000 only a short time later

00:18:47.280 from the OECD

00:18:48.400 that showed

00:18:49.480 that Canada

00:18:50.460 and the US

00:18:51.160 were the only

00:18:52.040 two countries

00:18:52.680 in the world

00:18:53.340 where GDP

00:18:54.860 went down

00:18:55.880 and income

00:18:56.580 went up

00:18:57.300 now normally

00:18:58.000 in a recession

00:18:58.880 in any country

00:18:59.700 because income

00:19:00.540 is a big part

00:19:01.260 of GDP

00:19:01.740 when GDP

00:19:02.640 goes down

00:19:03.240 income goes down

00:19:04.300 and that happened

00:19:05.080 in France

00:19:05.600 UK

00:19:06.040 Italy

00:19:06.420 during this last

00:19:07.300 period with COVID

00:19:08.280 we put so much

00:19:10.560 stimulus into the system

00:19:12.000 way beyond the 10%

00:19:13.580 of the population

00:19:14.940 that were working

00:19:15.720 and devastated

00:19:16.480 because they were

00:19:17.760 in restaurants

00:19:18.400 and bars

00:19:18.940 and so forth

00:19:19.520 we pumped

00:19:20.400 way beyond that

00:19:21.580 and as a consequence

00:19:23.400 we had GDP

00:19:25.060 going up vertically

00:19:26.100 GDP collapsing

00:19:27.560 vertically

00:19:27.920 and income

00:19:28.380 going up vertically

00:19:29.160 and again

00:19:30.300 that's evidence

00:19:31.120 of what I'm saying

00:19:32.020 we put too much

00:19:33.560 stimulus

00:19:34.280 we didn't

00:19:35.200 we were nowhere

00:19:36.200 near

00:19:36.840 surgical

00:19:37.960 enough

00:19:39.040 and you know

00:19:40.040 I think everybody

00:19:40.700 if I can use

00:19:41.380 a rather colorful

00:19:42.140 analogy

00:19:42.660 when you

00:19:43.080 if you have

00:19:43.840 a sadly

00:19:44.280 or tragically

00:19:44.980 or diagnosed

00:19:45.580 with cancer

00:19:46.180 and they decide

00:19:47.120 to use surgery

00:19:48.000 they want to cut out

00:19:49.240 as little as possible

00:19:50.500 so they don't

00:19:51.520 kill the patient

00:19:52.260 and what they did 1.00

00:19:53.740 here

00:19:54.180 was they cut out

00:19:55.300 huge amounts

00:19:55.940 I mean

00:19:56.240 they stimulated

00:19:57.020 the economy

00:19:57.660 to the tune

00:19:58.880 of three quarters

00:19:59.500 of a trillion dollars

00:20:00.620 in an economy

00:20:01.580 that's only

00:20:02.220 two trillion dollars

00:20:03.440 in absolute totality

00:20:05.000 so I'm not saying

00:20:06.680 we should never

00:20:07.320 have helped those people

00:20:08.120 of course we should have

00:20:09.320 and you know

00:20:10.020 Trudeau said

00:20:10.680 at the microphone

00:20:11.340 at the time

00:20:11.840 I remember watching him

00:20:12.840 and I was getting

00:20:13.300 so upset

00:20:13.920 he was saying

00:20:14.980 well you know

00:20:15.500 we got to break

00:20:16.080 a few eggs

00:20:16.640 you know

00:20:16.880 we don't exactly

00:20:17.660 know what's going on

00:20:18.780 this is bogus

00:20:20.420 Anthony

00:20:20.960 the CRA

00:20:22.080 I've been saying

00:20:22.720 this for over a year

00:20:23.720 because I use

00:20:24.480 the CRA data

00:20:25.340 the aggregated data

00:20:26.400 from the CRA

00:20:27.060 they have

00:20:28.300 awesome data

00:20:29.900 on every one of us

00:20:31.100 because all of us

00:20:32.220 30.5 million people

00:20:33.620 filed tax returns

00:20:34.440 last year

00:20:34.920 according to CRA

00:20:35.620 we are compelled

00:20:36.780 by law

00:20:37.320 to a file

00:20:38.340 a tax return

00:20:39.000 and tell them

00:20:40.000 everything

00:20:40.900 how much did we make

00:20:42.660 are we single

00:20:43.740 married

00:20:44.180 divorced

00:20:44.740 widowed

00:20:45.120 how many kids

00:20:45.840 do you have at home

00:20:46.280 did you buy a house

00:20:46.980 when did you buy it

00:20:48.000 they know everything

00:20:49.360 about us

00:20:50.020 in real time

00:20:51.200 because the employers

00:20:52.520 must submit

00:20:53.200 the withholding taxes

00:20:54.180 every 30 days

00:20:55.260 so they could have

00:20:56.320 very easily

00:20:57.100 the government

00:20:58.320 the cabinet could have said

00:20:59.420 to the minister

00:21:00.040 of Canada revenue

00:21:01.280 instruct your programmers

00:21:02.980 reverse the pipeline

00:21:04.420 the pipeline

00:21:05.160 is the flow of taxes

00:21:06.280 flowing into the government

00:21:07.340 every month

00:21:07.940 from the withholding taxes

00:21:09.140 reverse the pipeline

00:21:10.460 and pay

00:21:11.580 $2,000 a month

00:21:13.080 credit the bank account

00:21:14.340 of all those people

00:21:15.540 with an income

00:21:16.160 less than X

00:21:17.460 $60,000

00:21:18.440 $50,000

00:21:19.160 whatever

00:21:19.440 they could have

00:21:20.300 surgically targeted it

00:21:21.900 and they would have

00:21:23.000 paid out far less money

00:21:24.680 and would have only

00:21:25.580 gone to the people

00:21:26.500 that needed

00:21:27.160 the support

00:21:28.600 people filing tax returns

00:21:30.000 across Canada

00:21:30.680 as it was

00:21:31.940 they used it

00:21:32.880 as a political

00:21:33.780 opportunity

00:21:34.660 to stand up

00:21:35.740 and deliver

00:21:36.200 and announce

00:21:36.860 announceables

00:21:37.780 week after week

00:21:39.060 at the microphone

00:21:39.800 to demonstrate

00:21:40.660 to the Canadian people

00:21:41.460 we're in charge

00:21:42.220 we're doing something

00:21:43.260 to help you

00:21:43.860 and so we paid

00:21:44.860 a huge price

00:21:45.660 for that

00:21:46.160 we overstimulated

00:21:47.820 massively

00:21:48.600 over three quarters

00:21:49.480 of a trillion dollars

00:21:50.440 and that in turn

00:21:51.960 okay we're a rich country

00:21:53.380 we can pay

00:21:53.900 we can do that

00:21:54.760 but the

00:21:55.580 unintended consequence

00:21:57.240 they didn't even

00:21:58.340 think about this

00:21:59.340 what is this

00:22:00.300 going to do

00:22:01.080 to inflation

00:22:01.780 and that's far

00:22:02.880 more pernicious

00:22:03.680 and destructive

00:22:04.720 than the actual

00:22:06.200 excessive stimulation

00:22:07.880 that occurred

00:22:08.440 at the time

00:22:08.980 we'll be back

00:22:09.580 with more full comment

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00:23:25.200 you're richer

00:23:25.820 than you think

00:23:26.440 when I found out

00:23:27.720 my friend

00:23:28.180 got a great deal

00:23:29.140 on a wool coat

00:23:29.900 from Winners

00:23:30.480 I started wondering

00:23:31.940 is every fabulous

00:23:33.740 item I see

00:23:34.440 from Winners

00:23:35.120 like that woman 1.00

00:23:36.320 over there

00:23:36.800 with the designer jeans

00:23:37.880 are those

00:23:38.840 from Winners

00:23:39.460 ooh

00:23:40.200 are those

00:23:40.740 beautiful gold earrings

00:23:41.880 did she pay full price

00:23:43.280 or that leather tote

00:23:44.400 or that cashmere sweater

00:23:45.520 or those knee-high boots

00:23:47.000 that dress

00:23:47.900 that jacket

00:23:48.600 those shoes

00:23:49.560 is anyone

00:23:50.540 paying full price

00:23:51.480 for anything

00:23:52.260 stop wondering

00:23:53.640 start winning

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00:23:56.920 professor Lee

00:23:58.740 I want to get

00:23:59.080 your take

00:23:59.380 on what's going

00:24:00.040 on overseas

00:24:00.700 particularly

00:24:01.420 the war

00:24:02.140 in Ukraine

00:24:02.720 the way

00:24:03.360 those macroeconomics

00:24:04.540 are playing a role

00:24:05.320 or not playing a role

00:24:06.260 in what we're experiencing

00:24:07.180 here in Canada

00:24:08.220 you've talked about

00:24:09.460 all the distortionary

00:24:10.480 things that

00:24:11.080 Justin Schuill

00:24:11.660 and Christy Freeland

00:24:12.220 just throwing billions

00:24:13.460 hundreds of billions

00:24:14.140 of dollars

00:24:14.600 out the door

00:24:15.820 we also hear from

00:24:16.620 people like

00:24:17.020 Professor Sylvain Charlebois

00:24:18.240 the food professor

00:24:19.040 saying look

00:24:19.680 there's stuff

00:24:20.120 that's going on

00:24:20.640 in Ukraine

00:24:20.980 that is messing

00:24:22.100 with what's happening

00:24:22.700 here with our food

00:24:23.360 supply

00:24:23.800 fertilizer

00:24:24.680 we get whatever

00:24:25.500 the amount is

00:24:26.020 a large amount

00:24:26.660 of our fertilizer

00:24:27.300 comes from that region

00:24:28.980 that's going to be

00:24:29.740 put on hold

00:24:30.260 it's going to mess

00:24:30.980 things up

00:24:31.460 a lot of concern

00:24:32.260 about rising price

00:24:33.100 of goods

00:24:33.600 cost of goods

00:24:35.260 even just scarcity

00:24:36.360 how do you view

00:24:38.060 the war

00:24:38.600 as affecting

00:24:39.640 all of this mess

00:24:41.360 regular folks

00:24:42.040 are dealing with now

00:24:42.760 I'm certainly

00:24:44.880 not going to deny

00:24:45.900 the impact

00:24:47.800 of the war

00:24:48.280 I should disclose

00:24:49.240 I taught

00:24:50.280 in Ukraine

00:24:51.360 over 30 times

00:24:52.560 from 1993

00:24:54.280 until 2010

00:24:55.800 I've been that

00:24:57.200 I know that country

00:24:57.980 very well

00:24:58.560 and it has

00:24:59.060 it's an

00:24:59.660 people may not

00:25:00.540 realize

00:25:01.000 it's one of the

00:25:01.660 great breadbaskets

00:25:03.080 of the world

00:25:03.680 I remember

00:25:04.140 being working there

00:25:05.260 one time

00:25:05.680 and I met

00:25:06.120 the agricultural

00:25:07.160 expert

00:25:07.760 from the US

00:25:08.540 embassy

00:25:09.400 and he told me

00:25:10.100 you know

00:25:10.440 he says

00:25:10.800 we're kind of

00:25:11.580 lucky that Ukraine 0.99

00:25:12.600 is so poor

00:25:13.420 which it is

00:25:14.040 was and is

00:25:14.740 they're still

00:25:15.620 we're still

00:25:16.080 farming with horses

00:25:17.120 in the mid

00:25:18.300 late 90s

00:25:19.200 and their productivity

00:25:20.280 was very low

00:25:21.060 and he said

00:25:21.480 you know

00:25:21.660 it's really lucky

00:25:22.300 for Saskatchewan

00:25:23.760 and Alberta

00:25:24.300 and Manitoba

00:25:25.300 and the American

00:25:25.860 Midwest

00:25:26.240 that Ukraine 0.91

00:25:27.060 is so inefficient

00:25:28.540 because he said

00:25:29.820 if they ever got

00:25:30.460 efficient

00:25:30.860 they would put us

00:25:31.800 out of business

00:25:32.280 because they

00:25:32.820 apparently have

00:25:33.600 the most fertile

00:25:34.760 soil

00:25:35.540 in the entire

00:25:36.760 world

00:25:37.480 he told me

00:25:38.400 and and so

00:25:40.000 Russia and Ukraine

00:25:41.620 produce about

00:25:42.720 30 percent

00:25:43.500 of the world

00:25:44.000 supply of grains

00:25:44.980 so this is not

00:25:46.440 to be sneezed at

00:25:47.320 and not to be

00:25:48.020 trivialized

00:25:48.920 and yes

00:25:49.800 this is disrupting

00:25:51.440 the food market

00:25:53.860 the agricultural markets

00:25:54.980 there's no doubt

00:25:55.600 about it

00:25:55.980 and of course

00:25:56.740 Russia is one 0.97

00:25:57.880 of the top

00:25:58.420 three producers

00:25:59.380 according to the

00:26:00.720 IEA

00:26:01.440 the International

00:26:02.120 Energy Agency

00:26:03.280 which is a UN body

00:26:04.540 Russia

00:26:05.940 Saudi Arabia

00:26:06.880 and US

00:26:07.320 are the top

00:26:08.200 three producers

00:26:09.420 of oil

00:26:10.340 and gas

00:26:10.840 Canada by the way

00:26:11.560 is number four

00:26:12.180 albeit a distant

00:26:13.540 number four

00:26:14.140 and so

00:26:15.000 when you

00:26:15.780 suddenly disrupt that

00:26:17.240 or the Russians 0.99

00:26:17.980 disrupted it

00:26:18.780 and then cause the

00:26:19.420 blowback

00:26:19.900 which is to shut

00:26:20.740 down or try

00:26:21.400 and reduce

00:26:21.920 purchases

00:26:22.640 it's going to

00:26:23.460 create shortages

00:26:24.140 so those are

00:26:25.580 factors that are

00:26:26.740 feeding in as well

00:26:28.180 I don't deny

00:26:29.160 or dispute that

00:26:30.100 that's all the more

00:26:30.760 reason for being

00:26:32.240 prudent at home

00:26:33.320 given that you

00:26:34.200 cannot control

00:26:35.180 forces outside

00:26:36.500 of your country

00:26:37.340 but you can

00:26:38.480 control forces

00:26:39.760 to a greater degree

00:26:40.720 inside your country

00:26:42.600 and so

00:26:43.280 this is

00:26:44.340 these

00:26:44.740 disruptions

00:26:46.220 are occurring

00:26:47.240 it's going

00:26:47.940 to take

00:26:48.340 probably

00:26:49.300 Anthony

00:26:50.080 and I've been

00:26:50.480 reading up

00:26:50.940 on this

00:26:51.300 on supply chains

00:26:52.160 both agricultural

00:26:52.940 and otherwise

00:26:53.500 you know

00:26:54.220 the estimates

00:26:54.680 I'm reading

00:26:55.180 is it's going

00:26:55.680 to take

00:26:56.100 and assuming

00:26:56.800 that the work

00:26:57.400 comes to an end

00:26:58.180 fairly quickly

00:26:59.340 and I don't mean

00:26:59.960 in five years

00:27:00.580 but sometime

00:27:01.080 this year

00:27:01.620 and that's

00:27:02.220 an assumption

00:27:02.660 but assuming

00:27:03.660 that does happen

00:27:04.460 it's still going

00:27:04.940 to take

00:27:05.220 probably two

00:27:05.920 to three years

00:27:06.760 for the supply

00:27:08.180 chains

00:27:08.820 plural

00:27:09.340 to come back

00:27:10.780 into equilibrium

00:27:11.720 or balance

00:27:12.600 wow

00:27:13.100 so one year

00:27:13.900 of mess

00:27:14.420 and three years

00:27:15.800 of sorting

00:27:17.100 all the kinks out 1.00

00:27:17.800 I mean

00:27:17.980 that's like

00:27:18.840 basically what

00:27:19.560 you're saying

00:27:19.820 about COVID

00:27:20.320 as well

00:27:20.780 you know

00:27:21.280 you shut

00:27:21.700 you lock down

00:27:22.480 for two months

00:27:23.020 here

00:27:23.200 two months

00:27:23.620 there

00:27:23.880 four years

00:27:25.220 of unintended

00:27:26.560 consequences

00:27:27.360 Anthony

00:27:28.160 I really want

00:27:28.840 to just

00:27:29.120 just to pick

00:27:29.880 up on that

00:27:30.280 just for a moment

00:27:30.960 and I'm not

00:27:31.820 trying to get

00:27:32.240 into the debate

00:27:32.860 that the

00:27:33.220 conservatives

00:27:33.640 are having

00:27:34.240 about lockdowns

00:27:35.120 and so forth

00:27:35.520 but I was

00:27:36.680 and by the way

00:27:37.660 I believe in

00:27:38.360 vaccines

00:27:38.880 I've had four

00:27:40.100 I'm one of

00:27:41.680 those rare

00:27:42.080 comedians

00:27:42.420 I've had four

00:27:43.060 and I'm looking

00:27:43.740 for number five

00:27:44.720 before I go back

00:27:45.500 in the classroom

00:27:46.100 in September

00:27:46.620 so this is not

00:27:47.800 an argument

00:27:48.280 against vaccines

00:27:49.260 I assure you

00:27:49.960 but I was

00:27:51.020 arguing even

00:27:52.220 then that you

00:27:53.020 know locking

00:27:53.480 everybody up

00:27:54.320 because the

00:27:55.240 most vulnerable

00:27:55.820 statistically

00:27:56.620 and it's even

00:27:57.480 more clear today

00:27:58.440 but it was even

00:27:59.060 clear a year

00:27:59.760 and a half ago

00:28:00.520 people over 65

00:28:01.760 are vastly more

00:28:02.740 vulnerable

00:28:03.200 than people under 65

00:28:04.760 that's why I have

00:28:05.560 four vaccines

00:28:06.160 by the way

00:28:06.640 I can read the data

00:28:08.020 and I'm talking

00:28:08.860 the death data

00:28:09.980 death is not a theory

00:28:11.100 that the CDC

00:28:12.640 Center for Disease Control

00:28:13.940 publishes for the

00:28:15.240 totality of the

00:28:16.360 United States

00:28:16.920 not cherry-picking

00:28:18.020 data from one

00:28:19.020 hospital or one

00:28:20.220 part of the country

00:28:21.000 or one ethnicity

00:28:22.040 this is the

00:28:23.000 totality of that

00:28:24.820 population of

00:28:25.800 330 million

00:28:26.740 and you look

00:28:27.940 at the actual

00:28:28.560 death from COVID

00:28:29.640 statistics broken

00:28:30.620 down by age

00:28:31.420 and it's overwhelmingly

00:28:32.980 skewed to over

00:28:33.940 65 year olds

00:28:34.800 same with the

00:28:35.500 Canadian data

00:28:36.600 so the point is

00:28:37.700 we did these

00:28:38.300 lockdowns

00:28:39.060 and we did it

00:28:41.160 to protect

00:28:41.720 everybody

00:28:42.340 but the most

00:28:43.280 vulnerable

00:28:43.700 by far and away

00:28:44.360 the most vulnerable

00:28:44.960 were over 65

00:28:45.680 sure we had to do

00:28:46.920 things to protect

00:28:47.580 them

00:28:47.860 no question about

00:28:48.720 it

00:28:48.940 but we never

00:28:49.960 asked the question

00:28:51.140 at the time

00:28:52.480 we just went

00:28:53.600 you know

00:28:54.400 hell-bent for

00:28:55.100 leather

00:28:55.380 into the lockdowns

00:28:56.440 without saying

00:28:56.940 wait a minute

00:28:57.400 people

00:28:57.680 what are the

00:28:58.740 knock-on effects

00:29:00.420 what are the

00:29:01.460 unanticipated

00:29:02.580 consequences

00:29:03.220 now you can't

00:29:03.940 predict the future

00:29:04.560 perfectly

00:29:05.020 but it does not

00:29:06.460 require a PhD

00:29:07.360 in economics

00:29:08.080 to understand

00:29:08.620 that if you

00:29:09.060 shut down

00:29:09.660 three quarters

00:29:10.580 of the economy

00:29:11.580 that you're

00:29:12.440 going to blow

00:29:12.900 up the supply

00:29:13.560 chains

00:29:14.040 you're going 0.63

00:29:14.680 to blow 0.56

00:29:14.980 up everything

00:29:15.480 you're going

00:29:15.820 to blow 0.56

00:29:16.200 up energy

00:29:17.040 supply chains

00:29:17.880 agricultural food

00:29:19.080 supply chains

00:29:19.920 store supply

00:29:20.880 chains and so

00:29:21.580 forth

00:29:21.820 so what I'm

00:29:22.860 saying is

00:29:23.360 I think that

00:29:24.340 we overreacted

00:29:26.200 and we didn't

00:29:27.260 have the data

00:29:27.900 showing it at

00:29:28.640 the time that

00:29:29.220 it was going

00:29:29.560 to save huge

00:29:30.280 amounts of lives

00:29:31.580 and so I think

00:29:32.320 that we're going

00:29:32.940 to learn a lot

00:29:34.000 from this

00:29:34.720 so that there's

00:29:35.980 going to be a

00:29:36.580 ton of learning

00:29:37.360 that comes out

00:29:38.400 of this

00:29:38.740 pandemic

00:29:39.520 both economic

00:29:40.640 learning from

00:29:42.180 the data

00:29:42.620 in terms of

00:29:43.960 the impact

00:29:44.400 on supply

00:29:44.860 chains

00:29:45.160 the impact

00:29:45.600 on inflation

00:29:46.160 and also

00:29:47.220 from the

00:29:47.660 healthcare side

00:29:48.280 and I'm not

00:29:48.800 that's not

00:29:49.360 my area

00:29:49.840 do they want

00:29:50.560 to learn

00:29:50.860 though

00:29:51.060 because I

00:29:51.580 think there

00:29:51.860 needs to be

00:29:52.220 accountability

00:29:52.620 there needs

00:29:53.160 to be

00:29:53.400 royal commissions

00:29:54.040 there needs

00:29:54.360 to be an

00:29:54.620 inquiry

00:29:54.940 at every

00:29:55.880 province

00:29:56.340 every level

00:29:56.940 but it's

00:29:57.680 not politically

00:29:58.180 advantageous

00:29:58.900 for anyone

00:29:59.300 because we

00:29:59.580 haven't

00:29:59.800 changed

00:30:00.020 governments

00:30:00.580 so it

00:30:01.200 means is

00:30:01.500 Doug Ford

00:30:01.880 going to

00:30:02.140 investigate

00:30:02.480 Doug Ford

00:30:02.980 is Justin

00:30:03.400 Trudeau

00:30:03.640 going to

00:30:03.900 investigate

00:30:04.280 Justin

00:30:04.640 Trudeau

00:30:04.900 I don't

00:30:05.360 know

00:30:05.600 I think

00:30:06.200 we need

00:30:06.580 to get

00:30:06.800 to the

00:30:07.020 bottom

00:30:07.160 of this

00:30:07.440 stuff

00:30:07.780 but I

00:30:08.900 think

00:30:09.060 they want

00:30:09.380 to pretend

00:30:09.740 the past

00:30:10.060 two years

00:30:10.300 didn't happen

00:30:10.820 the reason

00:30:12.660 why it's

00:30:13.120 not from

00:30:13.540 my point

00:30:14.300 of view

00:30:14.500 it's not

00:30:14.920 to sort

00:30:15.360 of point

00:30:15.740 fingers

00:30:16.180 at people

00:30:16.660 and say

00:30:17.060 you know 0.98

00:30:17.360 you screwed 0.97

00:30:18.280 up

00:30:18.540 it's more

00:30:19.260 to learn

00:30:19.660 and say

00:30:20.020 how can

00:30:20.780 we make

00:30:21.100 sure

00:30:21.320 we don't

00:30:21.820 do this

00:30:22.220 again

00:30:22.600 I mean

00:30:23.360 you know

00:30:23.860 we just

00:30:24.180 can't

00:30:24.620 I mean

00:30:24.960 really

00:30:25.400 I mean

00:30:25.760 the cost

00:30:26.460 to people

00:30:27.460 and lives

00:30:28.560 I mean

00:30:29.020 I'm

00:30:29.560 a professor

00:30:30.460 I'm affluent

00:30:31.320 I'm comfortable

00:30:32.100 you know

00:30:33.060 yes

00:30:33.720 I'm annoyed

00:30:34.600 paying two dollars

00:30:35.380 a liter in gas

00:30:36.100 but quite frankly

00:30:36.760 it doesn't hurt me

00:30:37.440 I'm being very frank

00:30:38.520 and the food prices

00:30:39.260 I mean

00:30:39.660 my kids have left home

00:30:40.940 I don't support anybody

00:30:42.500 and I'm well paid

00:30:44.160 but there are lots

00:30:45.540 and lots of people

00:30:46.440 who are really

00:30:47.800 really being affected

00:30:49.460 very very badly

00:30:51.000 I'm talking

00:30:52.100 young people

00:30:53.460 low income people

00:30:54.560 people on modest incomes

00:30:56.100 that are seniors

00:30:56.700 and they're being affected

00:30:57.980 by this

00:30:58.440 so I don't think

00:30:59.240 that anybody

00:30:59.920 can argue

00:31:00.620 that the lockdowns

00:31:02.040 were an unqualified

00:31:03.540 good thing

00:31:04.900 there were a ton

00:31:06.060 of costs

00:31:06.720 the other one

00:31:07.760 that really bothered

00:31:08.520 me enormously

00:31:09.280 Anthony

00:31:09.740 was the number

00:31:10.480 I had friends

00:31:11.160 who were being

00:31:12.080 denied

00:31:12.860 cancer treatment

00:31:14.560 they were told

00:31:15.620 to go home

00:31:16.520 because of the lockdowns

00:31:17.700 we got to create

00:31:18.380 space

00:31:19.040 in the hospitals

00:31:20.080 for anticipated

00:31:21.400 COVID patients

00:31:22.280 and we were telling

00:31:23.180 people who had

00:31:24.300 advanced cancer

00:31:25.360 just to go home

00:31:26.540 and you know

00:31:27.240 suck it up

00:31:28.960 I mean 1.00

00:31:29.300 and I just thought

00:31:30.260 that that was

00:31:30.920 again it was

00:31:31.900 the privileging

00:31:32.780 yes of one group

00:31:34.500 of people

00:31:35.020 at the expense

00:31:36.140 of many many

00:31:36.880 other groups

00:31:37.520 and we didn't

00:31:38.040 make the trade-offs

00:31:38.960 that is the very

00:31:39.940 core of public

00:31:41.240 policy decision making

00:31:42.420 that every decision

00:31:43.560 involves trade-offs

00:31:44.500 and we pretended

00:31:45.540 for the past two years

00:31:46.600 there were no trade-offs

00:31:47.640 whatsoever

00:31:48.020 and we made a huge

00:31:49.640 mistake because

00:31:50.380 people died

00:31:51.360 who were on

00:31:52.620 on queues

00:31:53.340 waiting for treatment

00:31:54.120 for cancer

00:31:54.760 and heart

00:31:55.180 and stroke

00:31:55.640 and so forth

00:31:56.200 and we introduced

00:31:57.720 this massive disruption

00:31:58.960 to our supply chains

00:32:00.700 and now we've

00:32:01.960 embedded inflation

00:32:02.860 which in turn

00:32:03.780 is going to drive up

00:32:04.760 interest rates

00:32:05.320 I predict with

00:32:06.140 absolute certainty

00:32:07.300 we're going to see

00:32:08.200 much higher interest rates

00:32:09.300 as a consequence

00:32:10.120 to deal with these

00:32:11.820 problems that were

00:32:12.520 induced by the

00:32:13.580 shutdowns that

00:32:14.540 blew up the supply

00:32:16.320 chains in the first place

00:32:17.120 Ian I want to ask you

00:32:18.440 your thoughts

00:32:19.460 because you're talking

00:32:19.900 about the long view

00:32:20.540 of history

00:32:20.900 you were referencing

00:32:21.560 the 70s

00:32:22.180 you're referencing

00:32:22.640 other eras

00:32:23.260 I want to get

00:32:24.380 your thoughts

00:32:24.720 on the relationship

00:32:25.360 between economics

00:32:26.600 and culture

00:32:28.200 and social turmoil

00:32:29.820 because when you

00:32:31.180 just summarized

00:32:32.220 the cancer treatments

00:32:32.920 being cancelled

00:32:33.540 I'm a pretty chill guy

00:32:35.060 and I have these

00:32:35.680 academic discussions

00:32:36.500 it just gets me pissed

00:32:38.080 it's an emotional thing

00:32:39.680 the blood boils

00:32:40.720 it frustrates me so much

00:32:42.300 I personally

00:32:42.840 do not believe

00:32:43.620 those things

00:32:44.000 need to happen

00:32:44.840 I don't want to

00:32:45.240 re-litigate

00:32:45.780 the finer points

00:32:46.340 but I know

00:32:47.060 a lot of other people

00:32:47.900 have gotten emotional

00:32:48.580 they've gotten pissed

00:32:49.460 in the past two years

00:32:50.840 there's been a lot

00:32:51.400 of powder keg going on

00:32:52.480 whether I think

00:32:53.520 the George Floyd

00:32:54.380 Black Lives Matter

00:32:55.060 protests were certainly

00:32:56.200 the passions

00:32:57.320 were much more acute

00:32:58.200 because remember

00:32:58.840 there were lockdowns

00:32:59.640 then that was

00:33:00.020 during COVID

00:33:00.480 that happened

00:33:00.920 we had whatever

00:33:02.040 you think of

00:33:02.640 the Ottawa Convoy

00:33:03.560 I mean those

00:33:04.080 were raw energies

00:33:05.580 raw passions

00:33:06.360 that would not

00:33:07.140 have come about

00:33:07.880 were it not

00:33:08.260 for these other things

00:33:09.120 part of me says

00:33:10.540 are we just beginning

00:33:11.980 a period of social turmoil

00:33:13.340 and I don't have

00:33:14.860 that same

00:33:15.380 you know

00:33:15.760 longer view of history

00:33:17.000 having lived

00:33:17.560 you know

00:33:18.420 I hadn't lived

00:33:19.300 through those other

00:33:20.360 periods the 70s

00:33:21.320 I took out

00:33:21.920 Mark Kurlansky's

00:33:22.700 great book

00:33:23.020 1968

00:33:23.840 and I thought

00:33:24.800 ah Fury

00:33:24.980 you're kidding yourself

00:33:25.680 because they would

00:33:26.040 have a single protest

00:33:27.160 in the US back then

00:33:28.040 where like eight people

00:33:28.940 would die

00:33:29.420 at just one protest

00:33:30.340 oh come on

00:33:31.060 we're nowhere near that bad

00:33:31.960 but it's like

00:33:32.740 do we have

00:33:34.080 the ingredients

00:33:35.280 for that sort of stuff

00:33:36.560 because food shortages

00:33:37.740 gas prices

00:33:38.560 your cancer treatment

00:33:39.420 people are pissed off

00:33:42.660 and it's hard to blame them

00:33:44.060 Anthony

00:33:45.140 I do agree with you

00:33:46.160 and I'm

00:33:46.720 completely non-partisan

00:33:48.480 I don't have a membership

00:33:49.720 in any political party

00:33:50.840 whatsoever

00:33:51.200 but I do watch

00:33:52.880 the rise of

00:33:54.640 Pierre Pauliev

00:33:55.320 and the crowds

00:33:56.180 I'm not getting into

00:33:56.960 you know

00:33:57.180 who should be the candidate

00:33:58.000 I'm not commenting

00:33:58.700 on that whatsoever

00:33:59.260 but I do note

00:34:01.140 and I have

00:34:02.840 I have students

00:34:03.780 you know

00:34:04.080 I have 250 students

00:34:05.580 a year

00:34:05.920 flowing through

00:34:06.400 my five courses

00:34:07.260 and let me tell you

00:34:08.460 they give me an earful

00:34:09.820 and they are

00:34:11.360 I think younger people

00:34:12.620 are really

00:34:13.360 really upset

00:34:14.080 they're upset

00:34:15.060 of the fact

00:34:15.460 they can't afford a house

00:34:16.420 they see my generation 0.94

00:34:17.980 the boomers 0.96

00:34:18.660 as having

00:34:19.220 you know

00:34:19.940 sort of cornered

00:34:20.720 the market

00:34:21.160 and housing

00:34:21.720 and we've got all the wealth

00:34:22.800 and they don't

00:34:24.080 they've been left

00:34:24.660 with the leftovers

00:34:25.380 and the scraps

00:34:26.200 and so I think

00:34:27.420 that there's a lot

00:34:28.100 of anger out there

00:34:29.640 and I think

00:34:30.680 that Pierre Pauliev

00:34:31.620 is tapping into it

00:34:32.940 anger about gas prices

00:34:34.500 and food prices

00:34:35.620 and housing prices

00:34:36.620 so I think it's very real

00:34:38.180 those crowds showing up

00:34:39.420 being reported

00:34:39.980 on CTV

00:34:40.620 and CBC

00:34:41.300 and Global

00:34:42.240 are not fictitious

00:34:43.500 those are redrawing

00:34:45.360 large crowds

00:34:46.200 so yes

00:34:47.080 I do think

00:34:47.700 that that's very real

00:34:48.520 I want to put

00:34:49.280 another thought

00:34:50.080 out there

00:34:50.500 or not a prediction

00:34:51.780 but I like looking

00:34:52.900 at these sort of

00:34:53.460 big trends

00:34:54.140 and where are we going

00:34:54.940 I think we may look back

00:34:57.080 in three or four

00:34:57.720 or five or ten years

00:34:58.640 from now

00:34:59.000 and say you know

00:34:59.940 the whole pandemic

00:35:00.940 and our decisions

00:35:03.000 in the pandemic

00:35:04.400 starting with the lockdowns

00:35:06.000 precipitated

00:35:06.840 a major rethink

00:35:08.760 of health care

00:35:09.900 in Canada

00:35:10.740 I think that

00:35:11.820 that's going to happen

00:35:12.840 I'm not predicting

00:35:14.080 an American style

00:35:15.040 health care

00:35:15.620 I'm predicting 0.90

00:35:16.640 that what we're going

00:35:18.020 to realize

00:35:18.700 it's sinking in now

00:35:20.320 that what I call

00:35:22.480 the centralized

00:35:23.360 top down model

00:35:24.900 of most health care

00:35:27.020 has to be delivered

00:35:27.740 in hospitals

00:35:28.380 any serious stuff

00:35:29.320 I don't mean going

00:35:29.900 to your GP

00:35:31.340 with a sniffle

00:35:32.120 but on anything serious

00:35:33.560 you got to go

00:35:34.040 to a hospital

00:35:34.420 I have arthritis

00:35:35.180 the arthritis clinic

00:35:36.300 in my city

00:35:37.040 is in a hospital

00:35:38.960 and it's just a clinic

00:35:40.140 where doctors sit there

00:35:41.200 and they grab your fingers

00:35:42.240 and you know

00:35:42.900 it could be in a clinic

00:35:43.960 in an industrial park

00:35:45.880 where the costs

00:35:46.540 are vastly cheaper

00:35:47.600 and I think

00:35:48.860 that what's going to happen

00:35:49.760 is when we saw

00:35:50.620 all of those people

00:35:51.420 being denied

00:35:52.340 health care treatment

00:35:53.760 and remember

00:35:54.300 the premise

00:35:55.280 of public health care

00:35:56.280 in Canada

00:35:56.820 was you will never

00:35:58.440 be denied health care

00:36:00.340 unlike the Americans 1.00

00:36:01.300 because you don't

00:36:01.900 have any money

00:36:02.580 well we got denied

00:36:03.860 health care

00:36:04.340 for a completely

00:36:04.940 different reason

00:36:05.680 but we were still

00:36:06.600 denied health care

00:36:08.320 treatment

00:36:08.740 when we needed it

00:36:10.440 and I think

00:36:11.180 what's going to happen

00:36:12.160 this isn't to me

00:36:13.760 ideology

00:36:14.300 it's about

00:36:14.820 centralized top-down

00:36:16.360 models

00:36:16.760 which I've long

00:36:17.880 been critical of

00:36:18.640 you and I

00:36:18.960 have talked about it

00:36:19.700 I think the top-down

00:36:20.940 planning is a failure

00:36:22.180 everywhere it's been tried

00:36:23.320 and decentralized models

00:36:25.620 are more efficacious

00:36:26.660 and productive

00:36:27.220 and so I think

00:36:27.840 we're going to see

00:36:28.580 the emergence

00:36:29.520 and greater support

00:36:31.120 for things

00:36:32.100 decentralized health care

00:36:33.560 so decentralized MRI clinics

00:36:35.680 that are not in hospitals

00:36:36.840 eye clinics

00:36:37.800 not in hospitals

00:36:38.720 arthritis clinics

00:36:39.680 not in hospitals

00:36:40.540 they're going to attack

00:36:41.260 it as private health care

00:36:42.680 because the hospital CEOs

00:36:43.860 most of whom are not doctors

00:36:45.040 and they make 500k

00:36:46.940 but if they can lord over

00:36:48.060 a greater domain

00:36:48.700 they make 550k

00:36:49.940 they make 600k

00:36:50.940 if they can get more

00:36:52.000 and more

00:36:52.360 under their little empire

00:36:53.960 and if you

00:36:54.960 what you're suggesting

00:36:56.240 is very

00:36:56.940 you know

00:36:57.380 it's just private

00:36:58.220 delivery of health care

00:36:59.360 but it's still

00:36:59.920 universal access

00:37:00.780 it's still paid for

00:37:01.540 by the taxpayer

00:37:02.160 it's still regulated

00:37:03.080 it's still monitored

00:37:03.860 it's still investigated

00:37:04.480 and they will go to war

00:37:05.980 to stop that from happening

00:37:07.600 which just brings

00:37:08.540 better service

00:37:09.360 to the citizen

00:37:12.580 to the resident

00:37:13.260 and I think you're right

00:37:14.200 the past two years

00:37:14.860 have really opened my eyes

00:37:15.880 to all of that

00:37:16.940 that we're not being

00:37:17.740 well served

00:37:18.320 by the healthcare

00:37:19.700 not the frontline heroes

00:37:21.320 but the people

00:37:22.660 lording over the domain

00:37:23.700 exactly

00:37:24.620 and we're seeing it

00:37:25.360 I mean

00:37:25.680 and again

00:37:26.120 I am completely

00:37:27.220 in support of

00:37:27.960 a so-called

00:37:28.780 single-payer model

00:37:29.560 the Canadian model

00:37:30.720 which is supported

00:37:31.960 by something like

00:37:32.680 85-90% of Canadians

00:37:34.360 year after year

00:37:35.060 in healthcare

00:37:35.840 in polling data

00:37:37.160 but this is not

00:37:38.600 again about

00:37:39.360 an American style system

00:37:41.020 what it is

00:37:41.860 is we realized

00:37:42.820 when you've only got

00:37:43.780 a handful

00:37:44.200 first off

00:37:44.660 these hospitals

00:37:45.260 are frightfully expensive

00:37:46.280 we're building a brand new

00:37:47.180 one in Ottawa

00:37:47.680 called the new Civic

00:37:48.580 it's going to cost

00:37:49.560 it's budgeted

00:37:50.440 at 5 billion

00:37:51.140 which means

00:37:51.860 it's probably going to

00:37:52.620 come in at

00:37:53.040 closer to 10 billion

00:37:54.520 for one hospital

00:37:55.220 we just don't have

00:37:56.260 enough resources

00:37:56.960 to build hundreds

00:37:57.720 of hospitals

00:37:58.340 at 5 and 10 billion

00:37:59.340 a pop

00:37:59.720 and whereas you can

00:38:00.800 decentralize

00:38:01.700 I'm not talking

00:38:02.660 the big ticket stuff

00:38:04.140 trauma

00:38:04.700 emergency

00:38:05.700 you know

00:38:06.740 heart attack

00:38:07.340 cancer

00:38:07.800 the big stuff

00:38:08.800 but there's

00:38:09.920 huge amount

00:38:10.520 I've been going

00:38:11.040 to hospitals

00:38:11.560 routinely

00:38:12.080 for routine

00:38:12.780 stuff like blood tests

00:38:13.840 what on earth

00:38:14.920 am I doing

00:38:15.400 getting a blood test

00:38:16.180 at a hospital

00:38:16.780 you know

00:38:17.400 why am I going

00:38:18.140 to a clinic

00:38:18.820 so they can poke

00:38:19.840 my joints

00:38:20.460 you know

00:38:20.920 once a year

00:38:21.480 and take x-rays

00:38:22.420 when I can go

00:38:22.920 to a clinic

00:38:23.440 and so

00:38:24.060 and it's also

00:38:24.800 the most expensive

00:38:25.800 type of healthcare

00:38:26.700 by the way

00:38:27.300 inside a hospital

00:38:28.340 and so I think

00:38:29.460 that we're going

00:38:30.160 to see a revolution

00:38:31.220 I'm going to say

00:38:32.800 something very

00:38:33.560 provocative Anthony

00:38:35.100 go for it

00:38:35.940 even though

00:38:36.340 even though

00:38:36.860 the COVID crisis

00:38:38.100 was horrible

00:38:38.880 and people tragically

00:38:40.140 died prematurely

00:38:41.400 before their time

00:38:42.300 had come

00:38:42.780 there is going

00:38:43.820 to be

00:38:44.260 once we get

00:38:45.060 to after it's

00:38:45.640 all over

00:38:46.080 we're going

00:38:46.420 to realize

00:38:46.860 that there

00:38:47.200 are a lot

00:38:47.540 of unintended

00:38:48.100 good things

00:38:48.700 that came out

00:38:49.140 of this

00:38:49.420 a recognition

00:38:50.220 that we've

00:38:50.880 got a poor

00:38:51.940 ineffective

00:38:52.500 model of healthcare

00:38:53.620 we're realizing

00:38:54.680 we can deliver

00:38:55.460 education

00:38:56.160 through Zoom

00:38:56.960 to a degree

00:38:57.680 we can have

00:38:58.540 people working

00:38:59.160 from home

00:38:59.660 and alleviating

00:39:00.320 the pressure

00:39:00.780 on congestion

00:39:01.560 in the downtown

00:39:02.600 so there's going

00:39:03.200 to be a lot

00:39:03.700 of unintended

00:39:04.180 consequences

00:39:04.860 that are positive

00:39:05.680 for society

00:39:06.620 and we're starting

00:39:07.620 to realize that

00:39:08.700 you know

00:39:09.000 and so yes

00:39:10.800 it was horrible

00:39:11.380 that all those

00:39:11.960 lives were lost

00:39:12.880 but it forced

00:39:14.280 a lot of changes

00:39:16.040 and big

00:39:17.460 big changes

00:39:18.340 to society

00:39:19.080 and it reminds me

00:39:20.040 of that book

00:39:20.600 by Mancour Olson

00:39:21.760 some years ago

00:39:22.560 brilliant economist

00:39:23.400 the rise and fall

00:39:24.480 of nations

00:39:25.020 and he argued

00:39:26.320 that as nations

00:39:27.420 become more mature

00:39:28.420 each organization

00:39:30.420 and institution

00:39:31.040 developed coalitions

00:39:32.040 of stakeholders

00:39:32.640 that just won't

00:39:33.780 allow change

00:39:34.560 to occur

00:39:35.200 and his thesis

00:39:36.420 was it's only

00:39:37.480 when something

00:39:38.000 really horrible

00:39:38.740 happens like

00:39:39.340 a world war

00:39:40.020 or a country war

00:39:40.880 that it breaks

00:39:42.200 everything down

00:39:43.020 and allows all

00:39:43.880 kinds of change

00:39:44.780 and permutation

00:39:45.560 to occur

00:39:46.040 he was not

00:39:46.820 advocating war

00:39:47.760 by the way

00:39:48.300 he was just saying

00:39:49.160 what are the

00:39:49.800 consequences

00:39:50.340 when you have

00:39:50.900 a hugely

00:39:51.560 disruptive event

00:39:52.700 in a civilization

00:39:54.140 and his point

00:39:55.220 was it breaks

00:39:56.060 down all

00:39:57.000 the barnacles

00:39:57.740 that attach

00:39:59.320 to universities

00:40:01.000 and to hospitals

00:40:02.660 that don't allow

00:40:03.700 any change

00:40:04.360 to occur

00:40:04.960 because there's

00:40:05.880 nothing pressing

00:40:06.660 them to change

00:40:07.620 and then along

00:40:08.620 comes some

00:40:09.280 cataclysmic event

00:40:10.600 in this instance

00:40:11.280 the pandemic

00:40:11.980 that forces people

00:40:13.580 to re-examine

00:40:14.640 many many

00:40:15.680 the things

00:40:16.780 how we have

00:40:17.440 structured our society

00:40:18.480 I think

00:40:19.440 universities

00:40:20.260 and hospitals

00:40:21.480 are going to be

00:40:22.400 two of the areas

00:40:23.400 that are going

00:40:24.080 to go through

00:40:24.520 profound change

00:40:25.600 as a consequence

00:40:27.360 of the pandemic

00:40:29.180 and that's a good thing

00:40:30.440 Ian Lee

00:40:31.460 before we go

00:40:32.320 I'd like to get

00:40:33.520 your sense

00:40:34.140 of where all

00:40:36.080 this heads

00:40:36.620 in the short

00:40:37.340 and medium term

00:40:38.440 I know you said

00:40:38.860 you're not optimistic

00:40:39.600 that's going to wrap up

00:40:40.460 sort of immediately

00:40:41.440 and things are going

00:40:42.080 to return to

00:40:42.700 you know

00:40:43.640 rosy economic situations

00:40:45.340 but what do people

00:40:46.500 need to know

00:40:47.240 in the next

00:40:48.000 two three years

00:40:49.120 as they make

00:40:49.860 as they make

00:40:50.440 the big life choices

00:40:51.340 we all inevitably

00:40:52.060 have to make

00:40:52.640 about our lives

00:40:53.240 our kids

00:40:53.680 our jobs

00:40:54.240 our savings

00:40:54.840 our where we live

00:40:56.520 what should be

00:40:57.500 front of mind

00:40:58.040 as people attempt

00:40:58.680 to navigate

00:40:59.220 this seemingly

00:41:00.040 new terrain

00:41:00.640 well this is

00:41:01.780 a Canadian

00:41:02.240 podcast

00:41:03.360 and

00:41:04.300 podcast

00:41:05.900 excuse me

00:41:06.560 and I appreciate

00:41:08.240 the question

00:41:08.780 because it may sound

00:41:09.700 like I'm very pessimistic

00:41:10.880 I've been great

00:41:12.400 really really fortunate

00:41:13.480 I've traveled

00:41:13.960 around the world

00:41:14.540 I've been teaching

00:41:15.040 in China

00:41:15.460 once a year

00:41:15.980 since 1997

00:41:16.660 I've taught

00:41:17.760 over a hundred times

00:41:18.520 across Europe

00:41:19.140 and the former

00:41:19.620 communist countries

00:41:20.340 including Russia

00:41:21.100 and Ukraine

00:41:21.880 and many times

00:41:22.640 in Poland

00:41:23.080 and so forth

00:41:23.700 and where I'm going

00:41:24.860 is out of all

00:41:25.820 the regions

00:41:26.300 and countries

00:41:26.800 of the world

00:41:27.320 the two most

00:41:28.700 fortunate countries

00:41:29.900 are the US

00:41:30.800 and Canada

00:41:31.420 we're surrounded

00:41:32.400 by oceans

00:41:32.980 on three sides

00:41:33.740 as you know

00:41:34.400 in Canada

00:41:35.720 and there's thousands

00:41:37.340 of kilometers

00:41:37.860 across that ocean

00:41:38.740 to other

00:41:39.260 the parts

00:41:40.240 of the world

00:41:40.720 we have all

00:41:41.780 of the resources

00:41:42.440 essentially of Russia

00:41:43.600 but we're rule of law

00:41:45.180 we're not corrupt

00:41:46.260 like Russia 0.91

00:41:46.900 we're not authoritarian

00:41:48.100 like Russia 0.91

00:41:49.280 we don't invade

00:41:50.000 other countries

00:41:50.680 we have incredible

00:41:52.680 resources

00:41:53.340 and so I'm actually

00:41:55.360 and we have immigration

00:41:56.980 whereas countries

00:41:57.700 around the world

00:41:58.220 are going to be

00:41:58.860 depopulating

00:41:59.880 see John Ibbotson

00:42:01.700 and Daryl Bricker's

00:42:02.460 book Empty Planet

00:42:03.340 or the great

00:42:05.320 demographic reversal

00:42:06.380 by Charles Goodall

00:42:07.480 in UK

00:42:08.940 the retired profit LSE

00:42:11.020 and countries

00:42:11.920 around the world

00:42:12.420 are going to be

00:42:12.800 depopulating

00:42:13.400 causing great

00:42:14.120 economic dislocation

00:42:15.300 we are still growing

00:42:16.980 because we have been

00:42:18.100 for 150-200 years

00:42:19.640 very pro-immigration

00:42:21.220 and we believe

00:42:22.100 in immigration

00:42:22.600 in the two countries

00:42:23.600 so I am actually

00:42:25.060 very optimistic

00:42:26.040 much more optimistic

00:42:27.340 for Canada

00:42:28.580 and the US future

00:42:30.020 as opposed to Europe

00:42:31.500 or Africa

00:42:32.460 or Asia

00:42:33.380 where they are

00:42:34.300 confronting

00:42:34.900 very very serious

00:42:36.360 problems

00:42:36.920 in terms of

00:42:38.100 younger people

00:42:38.900 because they say

00:42:40.340 well okay

00:42:40.620 that's all very fine

00:42:41.460 that's very macro

00:42:42.280 philosophical

00:42:42.840 what about us

00:42:43.660 I just want to remind

00:42:45.240 everybody

00:42:45.680 that according

00:42:46.260 to the pension estimates

00:42:47.400 BMO Pension Group

00:42:48.420 and a couple of others

00:42:49.280 there's a

00:42:50.280 somewhere around

00:42:51.140 a 2 trillion plus

00:42:53.900 wealth transfer

00:42:55.880 that's going to take place

00:42:57.280 in the next 10, 15, 20 years

00:42:58.900 from the boomers 0.99

00:43:00.060 as they pass on

00:43:01.140 and it's going to go

00:43:02.120 overwhelmingly to their children

00:43:03.220 because we have stats

00:43:04.260 very good stats

00:43:04.980 showing that

00:43:05.460 most people

00:43:06.400 98%

00:43:07.120 pass on their wealth

00:43:08.420 to their kids

00:43:09.100 and as opposed to

00:43:10.820 giving it to a hospital

00:43:11.720 or a university

00:43:12.440 and there's very good

00:43:14.160 data on this

00:43:14.920 and so

00:43:15.980 the inequalities

00:43:17.700 that we're worried about

00:43:18.780 are diminishing actually

00:43:20.000 I've got stats

00:43:20.860 I do these presentations

00:43:21.880 showing our poverty rate

00:43:23.320 in our country

00:43:23.900 even though the activists

00:43:25.080 claim it's skyrocketing

00:43:26.220 this is simply false

00:43:27.320 the poverty rate

00:43:28.940 in 1965

00:43:29.500 was 25%

00:43:30.700 of the population

00:43:31.420 in the mid 90s

00:43:32.820 when Harper left office

00:43:33.900 it was down to 15%

00:43:35.060 it is now down

00:43:36.440 latest data from StatsCan

00:43:37.620 is down to 6.5%

00:43:39.420 it's almost disappearing

00:43:41.640 in our country

00:43:42.580 elder poverty

00:43:43.740 has collapsed

00:43:44.640 in this country

00:43:45.920 the wealth

00:43:46.900 of this country

00:43:47.460 we are one of the

00:43:48.220 in terms of

00:43:49.020 per person income

00:43:50.180 we're fifth

00:43:51.120 or sixth

00:43:51.700 wealthiest country

00:43:52.880 on planet earth

00:43:54.340 and so

00:43:55.300 if you want to go

00:43:56.940 medium term

00:43:57.860 yes we've got

00:43:59.040 short term problems

00:43:59.820 no question about it

00:44:00.860 we've got to deal

00:44:01.800 with the incredible

00:44:03.380 shortages of workers

00:44:04.440 and we've got to

00:44:06.080 integrate immigrants

00:44:07.280 into our country

00:44:08.060 we've got to recognize

00:44:08.980 their credentials

00:44:09.640 and so on

00:44:10.300 but for a young person

00:44:12.380 in this country

00:44:13.000 and I tell my students

00:44:14.260 this

00:44:14.560 out of all the places

00:44:15.680 in the world

00:44:16.260 if you said

00:44:17.400 where would I most

00:44:18.340 want to be

00:44:18.920 for the rest of my life

00:44:19.880 to minimize

00:44:20.360 the risks

00:44:22.100 of living

00:44:23.080 I would say

00:44:24.020 Canada and the US

00:44:24.960 because I've been

00:44:26.500 to these other countries

00:44:27.340 and they have

00:44:28.020 big big problems

00:44:30.040 well it's good

00:44:31.800 to put it all

00:44:32.300 in perspective

00:44:32.900 some negatives

00:44:33.940 for sure

00:44:34.480 but I guess

00:44:35.240 some notes

00:44:36.140 of optimism

00:44:37.440 Professor Ainley

00:44:38.180 always appreciate

00:44:39.340 your expert insights

00:44:40.160 thanks so much

00:44:40.940 for joining us

00:44:41.380 for the conversation

00:44:41.980 today

00:44:42.320 my pleasure

00:44:43.260 Anthony

00:44:43.540 thanks very much

00:44:44.140 for inviting me

00:44:44.820 full comment

00:44:46.160 is a post media podcast

00:44:47.480 I'm Anthony Fury

00:44:48.560 this episode

00:44:49.540 was produced

00:44:50.040 by Andre Pru

00:44:50.800 with theme music

00:44:51.820 by Bryce Hall

00:44:52.580 Kevin Libin

00:44:53.520 is the executive producer

00:44:54.720 you can subscribe

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Full Comment - May 16, 2022

The nightmare of inflation was made worse in Ottawa

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