Full Comment - This probably won’t end well for Vladimir Putin

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00:01:01.940 Hi, I'm Anthony Fury. Thanks for joining us for the latest episode of Full Comet.

00:01:06.320 Please consider subscribing if you haven't already.

00:01:09.340 Russia's invasion of Ukraine is still very much in the headlines front-page news, but now the general

00:01:14.140 consensus is tragically that this probably won't be wrapping up anytime soon. And it may not wrap up

00:01:20.560 exactly how anyone wants it to. But how does this end? Or perhaps we should be asking, does it even

00:01:27.080 fully end? A lot of experts have told us that the invasion of Ukraine was really just the next step

00:01:32.660 following Vladimir Putin's previous incursions into Crimea and other regions. So what's the next phase

00:01:38.740 after this one? What is the goal here? Our guest today knows all the details of what's happening on

00:01:44.140 the ground, but he's also been focused on the big picture of what's playing out in Eastern Europe

00:01:48.560 and Russia. Oh, and he's also made Vladimir Putin's bad guys list. Marcus Kolga, an expert in Eastern

00:01:54.920 European affairs and a fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, joins us now. Great to have you on,

00:01:59.920 Marcus. Thank you so much for having me on, Anthony. All right, let's get to this personal

00:02:04.920 angle here for you. Vladimir Putin's sanctions blacklist, a list has come out, 313 Canadians.

00:02:12.300 Vladimir Putin does not like those 313 Canadians. Most of them are government members, liberal MPs,

00:02:17.760 cabinet ministers. You're also on that list. What did you think when you saw that news?

00:02:24.160 Well, I mean, it would be exciting to say that I was terrified and shocked.

00:02:28.760 Right. But frankly, I wasn't too shocked. I was with the Lithuanian ambassador to Canada having a

00:02:37.580 coffee on Sparks Street in Ottawa when I saw a Canadian journalist tweet that I was on the list

00:02:45.160 and we actually just had a bit of a chuckle. Look, I didn't have any plans of taking a Russian river

00:02:52.380 cruise this summer, so I think my vacation plans are pretty safe. And I've never had any

00:02:58.640 assets in Russia. So there's nothing to freeze. So, you know, I think this was a symbolic gesture.

00:03:04.440 And quite frankly, you know, I wear it as a badge of honour. There are a lot of other very good people

00:03:09.760 who have been placed on that list and being on that list with them is, like I said, a great honour.

00:03:16.440 And I'm sure we're going to learn throughout this conversation that you're certainly the furthest

00:03:19.840 thing from a pro-Putin voice out there, which I guess partly explains why you're on this list. But

00:03:24.300 just from your perspective, why were you singled out? Why were you put on this list? Because

00:03:27.980 there's a lot of people out there who aren't saying favourable things about Putin. But you got

00:03:32.360 a particularly honourable mention. Yeah, well, you know, I'm going to guess that it's probably

00:03:38.760 because I've spent much of the past 10-15 years advocating for human rights and democracy in Russia.

00:03:47.940 And I've also spent a lot of time writing and speaking in media about the threat that Vladimir

00:03:54.280 Putin poses to Russians, first of all, his neighbours, and Canada as well. And so, you know,

00:04:03.460 going back to 2012, you know, I reached out and started connecting with a number of fairly well-known

00:04:10.820 Russian pro-democracy opposition leaders among them, Boris Nemtsov. Boris Nemtsov was, of course,

00:04:18.700 should have been named president by Boris Yeltsin in 2019, when Boris Yeltsin decided to step down

00:04:26.540 as Russia's president. But instead, of course, he chose Vladimir Putin. But Boris Nemtsov was certainly

00:04:32.400 in the running to become president. He was a very gregarious, very warm-hearted reformer,

00:04:41.960 pro-democracy, pro-West. He wanted to bring Russia into Europe. He believed in a European Russia, 0.55

00:04:48.020 one that respects human rights, democracy, and most importantly, the sovereignty of its neighbours.

00:04:54.160 And so in 2012, I thought it might be a good idea, because I already saw back in 2006, when Vladimir

00:05:02.980 Putin started assassinating journalists in Russia, I sort of saw the direction that he was pulling

00:05:08.920 Russia into, the direction that Europe might be pulled into, and I thought it might be a good idea 1.00

00:05:13.320 to have Boris come to Canada. So I arranged a trip for him to Toronto and Ottawa to meet with MPs and

00:05:20.920 tell them about what's happening in Russia. And so I think that was the first instance where the

00:05:26.420 Russian embassy here and in Ottawa probably took notice of the things that I was doing. And of

00:05:33.160 course, Boris Nemtsov, unfortunately, a few years later in 2015, February 27th, in fact, was gunned down,

00:05:41.300 just steps away from the Kremlin, because of his advocacy for human rights and democracy,

00:05:47.940 and as well, Magnitsky sanctions. These are, of course, sanctions that, it's legislation that

00:05:55.240 allows Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several European countries to place

00:06:00.740 sanctions on human rights abusers. And it started out as a law targeting Russian officials and such.

00:06:08.360 And so he advocated for that. And that's probably one of the reasons why he got, was assassinated.

00:06:12.840 I've spent a lot of the past 10 years also advocating for Magnitsky sanctions right here

00:06:18.560 in Canada and Estonia and Latvia and Sweden and Australia and other places. And, you know,

00:06:24.960 we were lucky to, I mean, it took several years, but we succeeded in getting that legislation passed

00:06:30.420 here in Canada as well. So that's another reason probably why the government in Russia probably

00:06:38.220 doesn't like me. And after, you know, Boris, I've worked with a number of other well-known

00:06:44.020 Russian dissidents. Vladimir Karamoza, who's a good friend of mine, he's been poisoned twice,

00:06:49.800 once in 2015, just after Boris was shot. And then again in 2017, Gary Kasparov, who's, of course,

00:06:58.020 the well-known Russian chess grandmaster. You know, I've worked with him quite extensively over

00:07:04.960 the past and, and of course, Alexei Navalny's team. And so I think all of these things put

00:07:10.540 together, I think they haven't made the Russian embassy in Canada or the Russian government all

00:07:17.700 that happy. And so I guess that sort of earned me a one-way ticket onto that sanctions list.

00:07:23.680 Well, Marcus, let me ask a very basic question, but one that I know is just informed by all of this

00:07:31.480 recent historical perspective that you bring, which is, what's happening in Russia right now?

00:07:39.940 Why did Russia invade Ukraine? What's going on?

00:07:45.220 Yeah, that's a, that's a great question. What's happening inside Russia right now is that

00:07:51.220 Vladimir Putin has taken complete control over the information environment. He has created a paranoid

00:07:59.520 conspiracy theory-laden environment where there are enemies all around him, all around Russia,

00:08:06.200 and he's positioned himself as the only person who can save Russia from the evil Democrats in the

00:08:14.000 West and an evil liberal democracy. How we've gotten to this point? Well, you know, I think we have to

00:08:20.360 look back several decades at, from, we have to, we need to understand where Vladimir Putin comes from.

00:08:26.880 He comes from a KGB background. He was in the 1980s, he was the KGB's station chief in, in Dresden,

00:08:38.700 in East Germany. And he worked very closely with East German secret police, with the Stasi,

00:08:44.580 to coordinate and support terrorist groups, whether they were Islamic terrorist groups or domestic

00:08:52.160 communists and far left terrorist groups. One of his primary tasks was to help fund them and resource

00:08:59.100 them and help them in their activities in targeting civilian European populations with terror campaigns.

00:09:07.460 When the, when the Cold War ended, when the Soviet Union collapsed, he was sort of left without a job.

00:09:14.680 Um, you know, the KGB contracted, uh, a lot of people were, were left without jobs. Um, and he, uh, he got into politics. He, he first entered politics in, in St. Petersburg, which was, uh, you know, uh, what was Leningrad. And it was, of course, renamed St. Petersburg. Uh, and he sort of quietly sort of moved up through the ranks there until he got to the mayor's office, uh, and connected with, you know, various different, uh, through the mayor's office, uh, through, with various

00:09:44.660 different emerging oligarchs, um, and, and started, uh, reconnecting with KGB as well. And so through the late, uh, 1990s, that security apparatus, the KGB, the former KGB security apparatus, which was then renamed the FSB, sort of, sort of regalvanizing, uh, regrouping and such.

00:10:05.660 And through oligarchs, one of them, uh, uh, it's, it's being reported that Roman Abramovich, who was placed on Canada's sanctions list, uh, just a couple of weeks ago, and has, uh, over, you know, well over $2 billion in assets in this country.

00:10:19.100 He apparently nominated, uh, Vladimir Putin, uh, as a successor to, uh, to Boris Yeltsin. And, uh, and once he got into power, we sort of saw his, um, KGB, sort of repressive Soviet era tendencies reemerge.

00:10:36.300 And so there was an immediate, uh, repression and crushing of, of, of independent media. Um, you know, I think most people would be surprised that during the 1990s, uh, Russia, you know, because I guess free media had been suppressed so long, um, it just exploded and flourished during the 1990s.

00:10:54.980 I think Russia, uh, during the mid-90s had the most, uh, most independent newspapers per capita in the world at that point.

00:11:02.880 I did not know that. That's fascinating.

00:11:04.420 It is fascinating. And that quickly changed over just a few years, uh, really between, uh, 2000, when he came to power in 2006, many of those were shut down, uh, independent media outlets, television, they were raided and, and stolen, um, brought under state control.

00:11:22.280 And, uh, as I mentioned earlier, in 2006, um, their independent journalists, those that were critical of Vladimir Putin, whistleblowers, um, anyone who came out publicly and spoke up against Vladimir Putin, they died mysteriously.

00:11:37.660 Anna Politkovskaya was a well-known journalist who was critical of Putin's wars in Chechnya, which were very similar to the war that we're seeing right now.

00:11:45.680 A similar, similar sort of, um, uh, brutal, uh, devastation, uh, uh, civilians were targeted.

00:11:53.200 Um, Polotkovskaya reported on that and she was shot in her, in the elevator to her apartment in 2006.

00:12:00.020 Uh, Alexander Litvinenko, who also, uh, he was a whistleblower and brought up, uh, Vladimir Putin's, uh, sort of dark tactics when it came to the war.

00:12:10.520 He was poisoned with polonium, a radioactive substance, in his tea.

00:12:14.200 So that's where you get the, when people say, don't drink the tea, if Vladimir Putin offers it to you, that's where it comes from.

00:12:19.560 Marcus, at what point, though, I think you can probably give me enough examples to fill an hour here, because I know there's so many people in all of this.

00:12:27.480 So I'll, I'll, I'll take the point that we've got quite a, quite a list of, of people who they've basically done in through these means.

00:12:36.520 And then we get to this point where we see the, I guess, the micro troubles in terms of the press and, and, and, and the opposition, and then the macro issues in terms of Crimea and, and other regions.

00:12:48.520 I know before we went to air, um, I, you know, I jokingly said we were chatting in advance of, of, uh, Russia, uh, invading Ukraine.

00:12:57.880 And had we, had we recorded back then, I would have said, oh, come on, Marcus, surely Putin's not actually going to invade.

00:13:02.940 Cause there are a lot of people who were saying, no, I don't think that he actually will.

00:13:05.840 And at one point, Zaleski was even saying, oh guys, you know, calm down, like, please, you're destabilizing our economy by acting like there's going to be a war imminently.

00:13:12.760 And then, well, a few weeks later, uh, there was, but, but you, you, you acknowledge that like most people, you weren't saying that Russian forces were going to be bombing Kiev.

00:13:21.840 No, no, no.

00:13:23.580 Uh, I didn't expect to see what we're seeing today.

00:13:26.540 I mean, the problem for Vladimir Putin is, you know, all of that repression that he engaged in, the corruption that he engaged in, um, he's really left the, uh, has, has failed the Russian people.

00:13:37.760 Uh, like he's had no domestic successes.

00:13:40.820 He's not made any changes.

00:13:41.980 Um, you know, the, the Russian auditor general remarkably reported just two years ago that only, uh, that, sorry, that one in three Russian hospitals doesn't even have running water.

00:13:54.120 And so, you know, his poll numbers have been dropping over the past decade or so.

00:14:01.320 Um, certainly since 2014, when he first invaded Crimea, because that was also a, an invasion that was intended to boost his poll numbers.

00:14:08.320 And they did temporarily, but, um, you know, the incomes, Russian incomes have been falling, uh, his poll numbers were, were sinking.

00:14:15.540 And so, you know, when he, when that happens, he needs a distraction.

00:14:18.960 And so I think I, along with most other experts believe that, uh, this escalation that he was engaging in since the summer on his borders, that his primary objective would be to take that Eastern part of Ukraine.

00:14:32.320 And that's, that he first invaded in 2014, but was never really able to properly secure.

00:14:38.100 And the thought was that he would go in there, uh, have them declare independence.

00:14:41.860 And he did that before, uh, in the first few days of, of the war.

00:14:45.560 Right.

00:14:45.740 And, uh, and the assumption was that he would just stay put there, um, because he couldn't afford the war itself.

00:14:53.040 He couldn't afford, given his poll numbers, to have all these, uh, body bags coming back.

00:14:57.760 But instead we've seen this, um, you know, and I've, I said this, uh, in the first few days of the invasion, that if he goes beyond Donbass, that that's, um, you have, you have to question that because it's not particularly strategic.

00:15:10.000 Um, right.

00:15:11.400 Uh, and, you know, let me ask, first of all, what's, what's really going on in Eastern Ukraine sentiment?

00:15:17.560 Cause I know Vladimir Putin will say, and I've read the polling that Russian state media has produced saying, you know, whatever, 80% of Eastern Ukrainians, uh, want to separate or they want independence, uh, in those regions.

00:15:27.440 And we, you know, we can't trust Russian, uh, state numbers, but then I also know here in the West, we're supposed to acknowledge the numbers like zero or what have you, but it's not zero.

00:15:34.800 There's, there's stuff going on there.

00:15:36.180 I mean, I will say, obviously sovereign country, you don't cross that line.

00:15:39.080 And there's moral clarity there.

00:15:40.260 You don't have the right to just go in and do that, but I know there's, there's murky stuff going on in those most Eastern parts.

00:15:46.540 How would you describe it?

00:15:48.800 Well, sure.

00:15:49.200 I mean, we cannot trust any of the polling that the, the Russians put out there. 1.00

00:15:53.300 Uh, let's not forget the 2014, uh, referendum in Crimea.

00:15:56.940 The, the Russians claim that the overwhelming, uh, number of Crimeans wanted to join the, the, the Russian Federation.

00:16:03.780 I mean, that, it was just a fabricated number.

00:16:06.640 All elections in, in Russia are shams. 0.99

00:16:09.080 Uh, the, the, the outcomes of those elections or referendums are predetermined.

00:16:14.340 And so, you know, are there a percentage be though?

00:16:17.820 Uh, in, in Eastern, in Eastern Ukraine right now, it's, I mean, it's hard to say how many, how many people, how many Ukrainians remain there?

00:16:25.080 How many, how many pro-Russians remain there?

00:16:28.140 It's, it's really hard to say because that entire region has been Russian controlled, de facto Russian controlled, uh, since 2014.

00:16:35.020 So there's no independent way of verifying how many people would, would, uh, would support joining Russia.

00:16:40.880 You know, it's probably, uh, somewhere between a quarter, maybe, maybe a bit more than that.

00:16:45.680 I would, not much more.

00:16:47.040 Um, you know, I think that a lot of, especially if you look at Crimea, um, anyone who did support Crimea, and there have been some good BBC reports about this, um, where people were interviewed before Crimea was invaded.

00:17:00.640 Uh, where they said, no, I think, you know, Russia would support us more than the Ukrainian government.

00:17:05.060 And then they've done interviews several years afterwards where all these people, the same people are saying, good Lord, did we ever make a mistake?

00:17:12.180 Um, you know, we want to get back to Ukraine.

00:17:14.720 And, you know, quite frankly, even though, you know, Ukraine has been struggling.

00:17:18.660 And sorry, why did they say that? Is it quality of life?

00:17:20.440 Like it's just.

00:17:20.840 Quality of life. Absolutely. Quality of life.

00:17:22.980 Um, uh, you know, Ukraine is, is, is, has been struggling economically for, for a number of years.

00:17:29.180 And that's one reason why it's trying to turn to the West.

00:17:31.480 But Russia is an absolute basket case.

00:17:34.020 Um, you know, there's a lot of wealth concentrated in, in two major cities, St. Petersburg and Moscow.

00:17:39.020 Outside of that, there is abject poverty.

00:17:41.660 And Vladimir Putin does not provide for his people.

00:17:44.160 He doesn't care about his people.

00:17:45.820 Uh, and the same can be said for, for Crimea.

00:17:48.320 So, uh, you know, any, any, anything that the, the Crimeans had, uh, under, you know, if it was, life was difficult, uh, to a certain degree under, under Ukrainian rule,

00:17:58.460 before the invasion of 2014, things have only gotten much, much worse.

00:18:02.160 Um, and, and I think that those, and most people in Eastern Ukraine probably recognize that as well.

00:18:07.860 That, that this is, you know, joining Russia will not bring too much benefit into their lives. 0.52

00:18:12.920 And that joining Ukraine, especially if it's moving in the direction of the West and the EU, it's probably a better direction to go in for them.

00:18:20.400 We'll be back in just a moment with more full comment with guest Marcus Kolka.

00:18:24.000 We'll be back in just a minute.

00:18:54.000 Marcus, you said you, like many other experts, did not expect Vladimir Putin, Russian forces to go as West as they did.

00:19:02.960 What happens next?

00:19:04.280 Are they doing a bit of a, uh, sort of overreach and then scale back?

00:19:08.180 Okay, fine.

00:19:08.940 We'll, we'll get rid of this area.

00:19:10.040 Just as long as you give us Donbass, we'll just take this Eastern area and we'll be done with all of this. 1.00

00:19:14.660 Is it something like that at play right now?

00:19:17.860 Uh, it could be, it's hard to say.

00:19:19.620 Um, you know, I think originally that was the plan.

00:19:23.040 Uh, clearly Vladimir Putin went off piste as it were.

00:19:27.300 Um, I don't think that any of his generals or his inner circle was expecting him to, uh, invade the rest of Ukraine.

00:19:34.940 I think, uh, his ambition was to, uh, clearly to take over all of Ukraine, uh, remove its, its current, uh, presidents, uh, and its government, replace it one that was friendly to him.

00:19:47.360 Um, but clearly things have not gone very well.

00:19:50.080 Uh, the Ukrainian army is, uh, you know, performing miracles.

00:19:53.860 Uh, no one expected the Ukrainian army to do as, as well as it, as it has.

00:19:59.240 Um, and clearly morale within the Russian army itself is, is very, very low.

00:20:04.680 Uh, none of these conscripts that have been thrust onto the front.

00:20:07.800 They were, they were told that they would be going into a special operation to, quote unquote, de-nazify, uh, Ukraine's Jewish-led government.

00:20:18.160 Uh, and they arrived there and were told to shoot, uh, men, women, and children, uh, to bomb schools and hospitals and apartment buildings.

00:20:27.420 Um, you know, Russians aren't naturally barbaric like their president.

00:20:32.700 Uh, the Russian people are good people.

00:20:34.300 And, uh, and that's, I think, why we're seeing this very low morale.

00:20:37.900 We were seeing mass desertions.

00:20:39.980 Just last week, there was a report that a, a battalion operating north of, uh, Kiev had taken its commander, pinned him down.

00:20:49.160 They ran over him with a tank.

00:20:50.800 And so there's even, you know, accounts of, of, of soldiers killing their, their commanders.

00:20:57.420 And so I think that this has caused Vladimir Putin to readjust his strategy right now.

00:21:02.020 He's probably pulling, pulling back on a number of fronts.

00:21:05.500 Um, the likely outcome, his demands during this peace process will be to, uh, keep Donbass, to keep Eastern Ukraine, to keep, obviously, Crimea, but also to maintain a land bridge between Crimea and Russia, which will include, uh, holding onto the city of Mariupol,

00:21:26.820 which he has bombed back to the Stone Age.

00:21:29.620 Um, so that's, that's probably going to be his demand, uh, in the next few weeks.

00:21:34.800 And, and we're clearly seeing that his, the way that he's moving his troops are going to back, that's, that's, it's also signaling that that's going to be the, uh, the primary objective in the weeks to come.

00:21:45.500 Now there have been talks going on between Ukrainian negotiators and Russian negotiators.

00:21:50.640 So the very idea of having talks suggests there's, there's something to negotiate besides, uh, either side, just demanding that the other side, 100% desist.

00:21:59.320 Do you think there will be something like that where Ukraine kind of acknowledges, as you've said, oh, you guys have really been in this area and, you know, Crimea in the East for so many years, uh, you know, fine, we'll negotiate something like that.

00:22:12.060 Like, is that in the works?

00:22:13.420 Well, look, this, this war has got to end somehow.

00:22:15.580 Um, and usually these wars are ended with, with one side conceding something to the other.

00:22:21.660 Um, what those, what those concessions end up being, how they, how these compromises are made, um, it remains to be seen.

00:22:29.040 We understand that, uh, that Zelensky is asking for a 15 year, um, dialogue on the status of Crimea, which the Kremlin has rejected.

00:22:40.260 Uh, 15 year dialogue?

00:22:42.200 Yeah.

00:22:42.780 Yeah.

00:22:43.000 How would that unfold?

00:22:44.320 What does that mean?

00:22:45.180 I don't know.

00:22:45.980 Um, uh, you know, I think it's, it's sort of freezes the situation for that time.

00:22:51.540 I think that Zelensky is trying to, uh, you know, he's playing, he's hoping to play out the clock with, with Putin.

00:22:57.900 Hopefully, you know, Putin, uh, is removed from power or something else happens to him.

00:23:03.740 And then maybe in 10 years time, if there's no Putin, maybe this, you know, that opens the window to have it, having, uh, uh, uh, Crimea reunified with, with, with Ukraine.

00:23:12.960 Who knows?

00:23:13.520 Um, okay.

00:23:14.440 I wanted to ask you about that question of Putin not being around because you mentioned the KGB culture slowly rises through the ranks.

00:23:20.780 He's got a lot of buddies.

00:23:22.020 I take the point that a lot of those buddies maybe got, you know, poisoned down the line and so forth, but others, presumably there's still connection.

00:23:29.060 To what degree is this a one man show?

00:23:32.520 And I take the point that you said the generals weren't even let in on these plans, but to what degree, okay, Putin's gone for, by whatever means.

00:23:39.980 When he's gone, do things do a one 80 or is there a culture in the upper brass that basically continues things more or less consistent with Putin's ideology?

00:23:51.560 Well, you know, I mean, it, it depends on so many different things.

00:23:55.360 You know, I, if, if Vladimir Putin and let's not forget Vladimir Putin changed the Russian constitution just last summer.

00:24:02.540 Um, and this would allow him to remain in power until at least 2035, um, you know, and there's no reason to believe that he would actually, if he were still alive, that he would leave at that point.

00:24:14.260 So if all things remain the same, uh, if he were to remain in power, um, which is his objective to remain as power for as long as possible and to consolidate more and more power, um, then we're in real trouble because we've seen over the past 22 years, the cycle of conflict that he creates, his neo-imperialist aggression, his appetite for, for violence, um, and to destabilize the Western world.

00:24:43.800 Um, it's only intensified over the past 10 years, it will get worse.

00:24:48.280 Um, this is only feeding into his appetite, the destruction, the wanton destruction, uh, the killing of civilians that's feeding into this appetite and that appetite is only going to grow.

00:24:58.820 So that's one option that he stays there pretty much forever.

00:25:01.660 Um, the, the, the second possibility is that, uh, his miscalculations in Ukraine now have caused the inner circle to start questioning.

00:25:13.800 Whether he's fit to remain, um, that means the oligarchs who serve him, um, who hold his wealth for him, um, and who Putin allows to continue amassing wealth, um, do they get together and say, we've got to do something?

00:25:29.460 It's possible.

00:25:30.960 Um, there's another group that helps, uh, enable Vladimir Putin.

00:25:34.880 And that's the Siloviki. 0.95

00:25:35.880 These are the security, there's the security apparatus, the same, the, the old KGB, um, who, uh, who protects Vladimir Putin, engages in all sorts of corruption, um, and, uh, essentially keeps the Russian people repressed.

00:25:51.040 Um, they will likely not give up power very easily, but if someone within that group decides that, well, maybe we need a change, um, that's possible as well.

00:26:01.840 But I don't think in either of those cases, we're going to see any sort of positive change.

00:26:07.120 We're not going to see a Russia that suddenly moves towards a more democratic Western sort of position.

00:26:12.760 I think the best case scenario for Russia is that the people finally rise up, um, you know, unfortunately, these repressions are, are going to start biting, uh, probably towards the end of the summer.

00:26:25.960 If they remain, the, the sanctions will really start biting in the fall and the winter of next year, especially if we cut off more of, more of, uh, the revenue for, for, uh, more of Putin's revenues.

00:26:36.100 And if there's a popular uprising, that's the only way that we're going to see a Russia that becomes a more normal Western sort of style democracy that respects human rights.

00:26:47.660 And again, it's, you know, the, the sovereignty of its neighbors and its own people.

00:26:51.400 That's, I think that's the best case scenario that we could hope for.

00:26:55.380 And what is the appetite for that?

00:26:57.040 Because I know we initially saw thousands of Russians taking to the streets saying, we don't support this war.

00:27:02.380 And many of them were arrested or charged.

00:27:05.680 I suppose many of them were not because you can't take all of them into paddy wagons, but we haven't continued to see numbers grow and grow every day and every weekend.

00:27:14.680 And maybe Russians aren't crazy about this war or they don't entirely understand why do we necessarily have to do this?

00:27:20.420 But is this situation enough to turn people against Putin?

00:27:25.300 Do they want to, what, what is the pro anti Putin sentiment right now?

00:27:28.540 Well, you're absolutely right.

00:27:29.220 I mean, at the start of this conflict, there were several thousand, thousands of Russians were taking the streets in St. Petersburg and Moscow.

00:27:36.900 It's reported that 15,000 were arrested during those protests.

00:27:42.780 That's big.

00:27:43.160 That's a huge number.

00:27:44.880 It's difficult for us to understand it because it is so big, but it's a huge number.

00:27:49.120 And then just a few days after that, Vladimir Putin introduced legislation that outlawed anyone mentioning the word war in the context of what was happening in Ukraine or telling the truth of what was going on there at all.

00:28:04.860 And that meant that if, you know, you or I were talking about it, we lived in Moscow, the police could come and charge us and we might face up to 15 years in prison.

00:28:13.420 That's a long time.

00:28:14.180 And so that's why we're not seeing large protests anymore.

00:28:18.380 That's right.

00:28:19.460 That's that's that's one very good reason.

00:28:21.820 And and let's not forget those crackdowns.

00:28:23.520 They weren't just putting people into prison.

00:28:24.920 But these are, you know, fully decked out policemen in riot gear with batons beating up old women, young children, anyone.

00:28:36.200 And so the violence of those crackdowns was also, I mean, intended to terrorize the people.

00:28:41.420 And it had an effect.

00:28:42.480 The second thing that's sort of problematic in this regard is that Vladimir Putin has basically sealed off Russia, completely sealed off Russia from the Western world in the context of information.

00:28:56.800 So he's he's created his own Internet.

00:29:00.680 He's blocked off all social media, all Western media.

00:29:04.760 He has outlawed all independent media.

00:29:08.780 The last newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, was shut down just a few days ago.

00:29:13.540 And so there is no more independent media left in Russia.

00:29:16.800 He completely controls the information environment at this point.

00:29:21.140 And unfortunately, that's having an effect of boosting support for the war.

00:29:26.100 Most Russians do do not realize what is actually happening in Ukraine.

00:29:30.800 They believe that this is just a small special operation that is limited in scope.

00:29:35.580 They're not yet seeing the mass Russian casualties that are occurring.

00:29:41.160 And so, you know, for right now, Vladimir Putin is winning that information war at home.

00:29:47.380 He is controlling the narrative and his popularity is rising.

00:29:50.680 But once the truth starts trickling in, it'll be, you know, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

00:29:58.020 And, you know, as we were talking about earlier, you know, how does how does all this end for Vladimir Putin?

00:30:02.220 I suspect that when the Russian people start, you know, again, the sanctions start biting, the truth starts trickling in.

00:30:07.340 I don't think it's going to end very well for Vladimir Putin.

00:30:09.300 Marcus, we do hear a lot of renewed pessimism, though, about the state of the world in general, democratic backsliding, leaning more towards authoritarian power, doing OK in some sense.

00:30:23.100 We have the sense that that the world stands against Putin.

00:30:26.760 And we certainly see that in our media and NATO countries.

00:30:31.640 I read an interesting essay by Edward Looch in the Financial Times breaking down the idea that, hold on a second, let's not mistake Western unity for global consensus.

00:30:40.900 And he points out that a UN vote of the 35 nations that abstained against condemning Russia, he writes the 35 that abstained account for half the world's population.

00:30:51.300 China, of course, is playing it down the middle, but so is India, Vietnam, South Africa, some very populous nations.

00:30:59.360 Maybe they don't fully support what's going on, but they still go, well, we're just going to stand on the sidelines and, I don't know, side with the winner or what have you, not ruffle Putin's feathers.

00:31:07.780 What should we make of that?

00:31:09.700 Well, you know, I was actually quite shocked that India abstained from that vote.

00:31:13.940 I mean, I'm shocked to a certain degree, but, you know, I think that India likes playing it both ways when it comes to China, China and Russia.

00:31:22.100 I would argue that India would be far better off if it started working with the Western democratic world, though.

00:31:27.980 You know, in other cases, you know, you mentioned China.

00:31:31.420 I think China is has been very closely watching what is going to what's happening in Ukraine, how the West reacts to it.

00:31:40.400 But they, of course, China is is is keen on on erasing Taiwan's sovereignty and its democracy.

00:31:52.400 And so I think that, you know, the way that we are reacting with Ukraine, again, they're watching that very closely because I think they're they they have plans for Taiwan.

00:32:02.500 I think the Western world ultimately has done a fairly good job of reacting.

00:32:08.440 I mean, there's so much more that we can do, but certainly the sanctions, the the mass sanctions that we've placed on to Russia.

00:32:14.600 I think China has taken note of that.

00:32:17.040 This is something that they're concerned about.

00:32:20.240 They they know that if they tried a similar action in Taiwan, that at least with regards to sanctions,

00:32:26.720 they might face the same sort of barrage of of economic warfare.

00:32:32.360 And so I think in in that sense, we're we're doing a pretty good job among the other countries that abstained.

00:32:39.620 A lot of them are African countries.

00:32:41.280 And this is one area where Canada really hasn't paid much attention to.

00:32:45.280 I think the Western world is largely sort of ignored Africa for the past decade, decade and a half.

00:32:52.220 And and China and China has it.

00:32:54.260 They're good friends with them.

00:32:55.620 They're showering them with money.

00:32:57.400 China's been, you know, was quite happy when the West retreated from Africa after the Cold War.

00:33:02.760 China's been quietly working at building influence and economic influence in Africa for well over a couple of decades now.

00:33:11.740 Russia has been doing the same.

00:33:12.880 Russia jumped back into Africa about seven or eight years ago and has and has really, I mean, 0.97

00:33:21.140 connected with some of the most corrupt regimes, not surprisingly, in Africa with offers to prop them up in exchange for concessions on on natural resources.

00:33:32.360 And so, you know, I think a lot of the nations that we saw abstain from that vote are are results of that, you know, renewed Russian influence in in Africa and other in other places in Southeast Asia as well.

00:33:43.680 So this is something I think that the Western world also has to be aware of, that that these two China and Russia are are playing in are are playing that game in those regions.

00:33:53.680 And, you know, we need to become more active in places like Africa and and Southeast Asia.

00:33:59.640 So, Marcus, you talked about doing more and we hear a lot about that discussions in Canadian media.

00:34:05.380 What more can we do?

00:34:06.500 And there's obviously the personal angle in terms of making contributions to humanitarian aid, a lot of individuals doing civil society efforts to bring over refugees and to to welcome displaced Ukrainian persons here in Canada.

00:34:19.200 The big picture, do more.

00:34:21.260 I mean, we're giving so much in terms of, of course, funds and there's degrees of military aid.

00:34:26.400 Lots of questions about a no fly zone.

00:34:28.120 Zelensky originally asking for all of that.

00:34:30.920 NATO boss Jan Stoltenberg saying it can happen.

00:34:33.980 President Biden, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau siding with them.

00:34:36.980 A lot of people have mixed minds of that.

00:34:39.300 I'm of the view that I support us not enforcing a no fly zone in terms of the spiraling effects that that that can bring about in terms of a conflict.

00:34:48.400 And Zelensky himself, I noticed, did basically admit that it was fair to characterize Ukraine as a gray zone, obviously not a NATO nation.

00:34:56.300 And where do you stand in these questions in terms of the do more in terms of muscle?

00:35:01.840 Do more means sending more lethal defensive weapons.

00:35:05.360 It means sending more anti tank weapons.

00:35:07.260 It means sending drones where possible.

00:35:09.780 It means sending the surface to air missiles to to empower the Ukrainians themselves to to defend their their country. 0.97

00:35:18.140 It's clear that NATO is not going to get involved.

00:35:20.040 So I think we have to accept that.

00:35:21.780 With regards to no fly zones, though, you know, we need to make damn sure whether it's in the U.N., NATO or coalition of the willing that we secure those green corridors.

00:35:32.780 So allow the the thousands upon thousands of refugees who are stuck in cities like Kharkiv in Mariupol in Chernyov, ensure that they can get out safely.

00:35:46.140 You know, every time Russia guarantees a safe corridor for them to escape, they open fire on refugees just today.

00:35:54.600 They committed to allowing refugees to leave Mariupol or citizens, residents of Mariupol. 0.94

00:36:01.580 They're not refugees yet.

00:36:02.480 They're residents of Mariupol to leave as refugees.

00:36:06.800 And when it when that was agreed to just a few hours later, as the buses started streaming out of Mariupol, the Russians blocked them.

00:36:15.120 They wouldn't allow them to leave.

00:36:16.540 So after they agreed to allow some refugees to leave, they stopped them from doing so.

00:36:21.000 And if they have to turn back, we know that the Russians are indiscriminately bombing civilian infrastructure.

00:36:27.600 In fact, in Mariupol, 90 percent of the the civilian infrastructure is being destroyed.

00:36:31.920 Homes, apartment buildings, schools, hospitals.

00:36:34.740 And so ensuring that those corridors are secured is something that the world needs to do.

00:36:40.260 That's not even that's not even a NATO question.

00:36:42.720 This is a humanitarian catastrophe.

00:36:44.740 And, you know, we need to come together.

00:36:47.620 The world needs to come together to stop this barbarian from just slaughtering, you know, men and women and children. 1.00

00:36:53.040 What does that mean practically, though?

00:36:54.700 Because, yes, it's so barbaric.

00:36:56.180 And to say, OK, here's your here's your free travel and then, oh, no, we're going to fire on you is just the most morally despicable thing there is.

00:37:02.340 But doesn't that still present the same logistical challenges that a no fly zone creates if this is something that's being done in Ukrainian soil?

00:37:12.000 What are the nuts and bolts of that?

00:37:13.880 Does it have the same hazard?

00:37:15.940 Yeah, of course it has the same hazard.

00:37:17.480 But this is I think the the humanitarian aspect needs to be taken to the UN.

00:37:22.880 This is something that the UN needs to to vote on.

00:37:26.520 We know, of course, that the Russians have a veto in the Security Council.

00:37:29.680 So it would probably veto this, but it needs to go through this process.

00:37:34.120 And if the UN rejects any protection of these refugees, then we need to look elsewhere.

00:37:40.580 And maybe that is, you know, NATO, NATO plus.

00:37:43.840 So maybe it's NATO plus Sweden, Finland.

00:37:47.340 Maybe there are some, you know, other nations outside of Europe and North America that would want to to help with that.

00:37:54.420 But I'm not seeing that effort right now.

00:37:56.060 And this is that's the the path to protecting those people, because that's I think for us in Canada, I mean, obviously, Ukraine's sovereignty is is of is a priority.

00:38:06.360 We want to help them secure that.

00:38:08.020 But it's these refugees. 1.00

00:38:08.860 The fact that there are four four million people, there are four million refugees right now after just after five weeks of of war.

00:38:15.080 That number is only going to grow a quarter of all Ukrainians are displaced.

00:38:19.680 This is where our focus needs to be on protecting those civilians and making sure that they're safe.

00:38:26.480 And another thing that I want to bring up, and no one's talking about this yet, who's going to pay for all this?

00:38:31.440 You know, and this is something we need to start thinking about as well, maybe in the context of the sanctions that we've placed,

00:38:37.020 because it's going to cost trillions of dollars to fix all of the damage, the destruction that Vladimir Putin has caused.

00:38:45.480 Marcus Kolga, very good points.

00:38:47.180 That count of four million refugees, definitely a really disturbing number to have in such a short period of time. 1.00

00:38:53.920 Sir, thank you so much for your insights and your expertise today.

00:38:57.360 It's been an informative conversation.

00:38:59.060 Thanks so much for having me on, Anthony.

00:39:01.180 All the best.

00:39:02.460 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:39:04.760 I'm Anthony Fury.

00:39:05.460 This episode was produced by Andre Proulx, with theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:39:09.860 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

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Full Comment - April 04, 2022

This probably won’t end well for Vladimir Putin

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