In this episode of Full Comet, host Anthony Fury sits down with journalist Marcus Kolga to discuss the impact of Vladimir Putin's latest sanctions list, and why he thinks he should be on it. Plus, find out why he was placed on the list and what it means for him personally.
00:00:00.000Ontario, the wait is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget
00:00:06.000Online Casino is live, bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience
00:00:11.040right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and
00:00:16.680simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots
00:00:21.740and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots
00:00:27.220that can turn any mundane moment into a golden opportunity at Golden Nugget Online Casino.
00:00:32.820Take a spin on the slots, challenge yourself at the tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the
00:00:37.920thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you
00:00:43.140can go for the gold at Golden Nugget Online Casino? Gambling problem? Call ConnexOntario
00:00:49.0801-866-531-2600. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See
00:00:56.340goldennuggetcasino.com for details. Please play responsibly.
00:01:01.940Hi, I'm Anthony Fury. Thanks for joining us for the latest episode of Full Comet.
00:01:06.320Please consider subscribing if you haven't already.
00:01:09.340Russia's invasion of Ukraine is still very much in the headlines front-page news, but now the general
00:01:14.140consensus is tragically that this probably won't be wrapping up anytime soon. And it may not wrap up
00:01:20.560exactly how anyone wants it to. But how does this end? Or perhaps we should be asking, does it even
00:01:27.080fully end? A lot of experts have told us that the invasion of Ukraine was really just the next step
00:01:32.660following Vladimir Putin's previous incursions into Crimea and other regions. So what's the next phase
00:01:38.740after this one? What is the goal here? Our guest today knows all the details of what's happening on
00:01:44.140the ground, but he's also been focused on the big picture of what's playing out in Eastern Europe
00:01:48.560and Russia. Oh, and he's also made Vladimir Putin's bad guys list. Marcus Kolga, an expert in Eastern
00:01:54.920European affairs and a fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, joins us now. Great to have you on,
00:01:59.920Marcus. Thank you so much for having me on, Anthony. All right, let's get to this personal
00:02:04.920angle here for you. Vladimir Putin's sanctions blacklist, a list has come out, 313 Canadians.
00:02:12.300Vladimir Putin does not like those 313 Canadians. Most of them are government members, liberal MPs,
00:02:17.760cabinet ministers. You're also on that list. What did you think when you saw that news?
00:02:24.160Well, I mean, it would be exciting to say that I was terrified and shocked.
00:02:28.760Right. But frankly, I wasn't too shocked. I was with the Lithuanian ambassador to Canada having a
00:02:37.580coffee on Sparks Street in Ottawa when I saw a Canadian journalist tweet that I was on the list
00:02:45.160and we actually just had a bit of a chuckle. Look, I didn't have any plans of taking a Russian river
00:02:52.380cruise this summer, so I think my vacation plans are pretty safe. And I've never had any
00:02:58.640assets in Russia. So there's nothing to freeze. So, you know, I think this was a symbolic gesture.
00:03:04.440And quite frankly, you know, I wear it as a badge of honour. There are a lot of other very good people
00:03:09.760who have been placed on that list and being on that list with them is, like I said, a great honour.
00:03:16.440And I'm sure we're going to learn throughout this conversation that you're certainly the furthest
00:03:19.840thing from a pro-Putin voice out there, which I guess partly explains why you're on this list. But
00:03:24.300just from your perspective, why were you singled out? Why were you put on this list? Because
00:03:27.980there's a lot of people out there who aren't saying favourable things about Putin. But you got
00:03:32.360a particularly honourable mention. Yeah, well, you know, I'm going to guess that it's probably
00:03:38.760because I've spent much of the past 10-15 years advocating for human rights and democracy in Russia.
00:03:47.940And I've also spent a lot of time writing and speaking in media about the threat that Vladimir
00:03:54.280Putin poses to Russians, first of all, his neighbours, and Canada as well. And so, you know,
00:04:03.460going back to 2012, you know, I reached out and started connecting with a number of fairly well-known
00:04:10.820Russian pro-democracy opposition leaders among them, Boris Nemtsov. Boris Nemtsov was, of course,
00:04:18.700should have been named president by Boris Yeltsin in 2019, when Boris Yeltsin decided to step down
00:04:26.540as Russia's president. But instead, of course, he chose Vladimir Putin. But Boris Nemtsov was certainly
00:04:32.400in the running to become president. He was a very gregarious, very warm-hearted reformer,
00:04:41.960pro-democracy, pro-West. He wanted to bring Russia into Europe. He believed in a European Russia,
00:04:48.020one that respects human rights, democracy, and most importantly, the sovereignty of its neighbours.
00:04:54.160And so in 2012, I thought it might be a good idea, because I already saw back in 2006, when Vladimir
00:05:02.980Putin started assassinating journalists in Russia, I sort of saw the direction that he was pulling
00:05:08.920Russia into, the direction that Europe might be pulled into, and I thought it might be a good idea
00:05:13.320to have Boris come to Canada. So I arranged a trip for him to Toronto and Ottawa to meet with MPs and
00:05:20.920tell them about what's happening in Russia. And so I think that was the first instance where the
00:05:26.420Russian embassy here and in Ottawa probably took notice of the things that I was doing. And of
00:05:33.160course, Boris Nemtsov, unfortunately, a few years later in 2015, February 27th, in fact, was gunned down,
00:05:41.300just steps away from the Kremlin, because of his advocacy for human rights and democracy,
00:05:47.940and as well, Magnitsky sanctions. These are, of course, sanctions that, it's legislation that
00:05:55.240allows Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several European countries to place
00:06:00.740sanctions on human rights abusers. And it started out as a law targeting Russian officials and such.
00:06:08.360And so he advocated for that. And that's probably one of the reasons why he got, was assassinated.
00:06:12.840I've spent a lot of the past 10 years also advocating for Magnitsky sanctions right here
00:06:18.560in Canada and Estonia and Latvia and Sweden and Australia and other places. And, you know,
00:06:24.960we were lucky to, I mean, it took several years, but we succeeded in getting that legislation passed
00:06:30.420here in Canada as well. So that's another reason probably why the government in Russia probably
00:06:38.220doesn't like me. And after, you know, Boris, I've worked with a number of other well-known
00:06:44.020Russian dissidents. Vladimir Karamoza, who's a good friend of mine, he's been poisoned twice,
00:06:49.800once in 2015, just after Boris was shot. And then again in 2017, Gary Kasparov, who's, of course,
00:06:58.020the well-known Russian chess grandmaster. You know, I've worked with him quite extensively over
00:07:04.960the past and, and of course, Alexei Navalny's team. And so I think all of these things put
00:07:10.540together, I think they haven't made the Russian embassy in Canada or the Russian government all
00:07:17.700that happy. And so I guess that sort of earned me a one-way ticket onto that sanctions list.
00:07:23.680Well, Marcus, let me ask a very basic question, but one that I know is just informed by all of this
00:07:31.480recent historical perspective that you bring, which is, what's happening in Russia right now?
00:07:39.940Why did Russia invade Ukraine? What's going on?
00:07:45.220Yeah, that's a, that's a great question. What's happening inside Russia right now is that
00:07:51.220Vladimir Putin has taken complete control over the information environment. He has created a paranoid
00:07:59.520conspiracy theory-laden environment where there are enemies all around him, all around Russia,
00:08:06.200and he's positioned himself as the only person who can save Russia from the evil Democrats in the
00:08:14.000West and an evil liberal democracy. How we've gotten to this point? Well, you know, I think we have to
00:08:20.360look back several decades at, from, we have to, we need to understand where Vladimir Putin comes from.
00:08:26.880He comes from a KGB background. He was in the 1980s, he was the KGB's station chief in, in Dresden,
00:08:38.700in East Germany. And he worked very closely with East German secret police, with the Stasi,
00:08:44.580to coordinate and support terrorist groups, whether they were Islamic terrorist groups or domestic
00:08:52.160communists and far left terrorist groups. One of his primary tasks was to help fund them and resource
00:08:59.100them and help them in their activities in targeting civilian European populations with terror campaigns.
00:09:07.460When the, when the Cold War ended, when the Soviet Union collapsed, he was sort of left without a job.
00:09:14.680Um, you know, the KGB contracted, uh, a lot of people were, were left without jobs. Um, and he, uh, he got into politics. He, he first entered politics in, in St. Petersburg, which was, uh, you know, uh, what was Leningrad. And it was, of course, renamed St. Petersburg. Uh, and he sort of quietly sort of moved up through the ranks there until he got to the mayor's office, uh, and connected with, you know, various different, uh, through the mayor's office, uh, through, with various
00:09:44.660different emerging oligarchs, um, and, and started, uh, reconnecting with KGB as well. And so through the late, uh, 1990s, that security apparatus, the KGB, the former KGB security apparatus, which was then renamed the FSB, sort of, sort of regalvanizing, uh, regrouping and such.
00:10:05.660And through oligarchs, one of them, uh, uh, it's, it's being reported that Roman Abramovich, who was placed on Canada's sanctions list, uh, just a couple of weeks ago, and has, uh, over, you know, well over $2 billion in assets in this country.
00:10:19.100He apparently nominated, uh, Vladimir Putin, uh, as a successor to, uh, to Boris Yeltsin. And, uh, and once he got into power, we sort of saw his, um, KGB, sort of repressive Soviet era tendencies reemerge.
00:10:36.300And so there was an immediate, uh, repression and crushing of, of, of independent media. Um, you know, I think most people would be surprised that during the 1990s, uh, Russia, you know, because I guess free media had been suppressed so long, um, it just exploded and flourished during the 1990s.
00:10:54.980I think Russia, uh, during the mid-90s had the most, uh, most independent newspapers per capita in the world at that point.
00:11:02.880I did not know that. That's fascinating.
00:11:04.420It is fascinating. And that quickly changed over just a few years, uh, really between, uh, 2000, when he came to power in 2006, many of those were shut down, uh, independent media outlets, television, they were raided and, and stolen, um, brought under state control.
00:11:22.280And, uh, as I mentioned earlier, in 2006, um, their independent journalists, those that were critical of Vladimir Putin, whistleblowers, um, anyone who came out publicly and spoke up against Vladimir Putin, they died mysteriously.
00:11:37.660Anna Politkovskaya was a well-known journalist who was critical of Putin's wars in Chechnya, which were very similar to the war that we're seeing right now.
00:11:45.680A similar, similar sort of, um, uh, brutal, uh, devastation, uh, uh, civilians were targeted.
00:11:53.200Um, Polotkovskaya reported on that and she was shot in her, in the elevator to her apartment in 2006.
00:12:00.020Uh, Alexander Litvinenko, who also, uh, he was a whistleblower and brought up, uh, Vladimir Putin's, uh, sort of dark tactics when it came to the war.
00:12:10.520He was poisoned with polonium, a radioactive substance, in his tea.
00:12:14.200So that's where you get the, when people say, don't drink the tea, if Vladimir Putin offers it to you, that's where it comes from.
00:12:19.560Marcus, at what point, though, I think you can probably give me enough examples to fill an hour here, because I know there's so many people in all of this.
00:12:27.480So I'll, I'll, I'll take the point that we've got quite a, quite a list of, of people who they've basically done in through these means.
00:12:36.520And then we get to this point where we see the, I guess, the micro troubles in terms of the press and, and, and, and the opposition, and then the macro issues in terms of Crimea and, and other regions.
00:12:48.520I know before we went to air, um, I, you know, I jokingly said we were chatting in advance of, of, uh, Russia, uh, invading Ukraine.
00:12:57.880And had we, had we recorded back then, I would have said, oh, come on, Marcus, surely Putin's not actually going to invade.
00:13:02.940Cause there are a lot of people who were saying, no, I don't think that he actually will.
00:13:05.840And at one point, Zaleski was even saying, oh guys, you know, calm down, like, please, you're destabilizing our economy by acting like there's going to be a war imminently.
00:13:12.760And then, well, a few weeks later, uh, there was, but, but you, you, you acknowledge that like most people, you weren't saying that Russian forces were going to be bombing Kiev.
00:13:23.580Uh, I didn't expect to see what we're seeing today.
00:13:26.540I mean, the problem for Vladimir Putin is, you know, all of that repression that he engaged in, the corruption that he engaged in, um, he's really left the, uh, has, has failed the Russian people.
00:13:37.760Uh, like he's had no domestic successes.
00:13:41.980Um, you know, the, the Russian auditor general remarkably reported just two years ago that only, uh, that, sorry, that one in three Russian hospitals doesn't even have running water.
00:13:54.120And so, you know, his poll numbers have been dropping over the past decade or so.
00:14:01.320Um, certainly since 2014, when he first invaded Crimea, because that was also a, an invasion that was intended to boost his poll numbers.
00:14:08.320And they did temporarily, but, um, you know, the incomes, Russian incomes have been falling, uh, his poll numbers were, were sinking.
00:14:15.540And so, you know, when he, when that happens, he needs a distraction.
00:14:18.960And so I think I, along with most other experts believe that, uh, this escalation that he was engaging in since the summer on his borders, that his primary objective would be to take that Eastern part of Ukraine.
00:14:32.320And that's, that he first invaded in 2014, but was never really able to properly secure.
00:14:38.100And the thought was that he would go in there, uh, have them declare independence.
00:14:41.860And he did that before, uh, in the first few days of, of the war.
00:14:45.740And, uh, and the assumption was that he would just stay put there, um, because he couldn't afford the war itself.
00:14:53.040He couldn't afford, given his poll numbers, to have all these, uh, body bags coming back.
00:14:57.760But instead we've seen this, um, you know, and I've, I said this, uh, in the first few days of the invasion, that if he goes beyond Donbass, that that's, um, you have, you have to question that because it's not particularly strategic.
00:15:11.400Uh, and, you know, let me ask, first of all, what's, what's really going on in Eastern Ukraine sentiment?
00:15:17.560Cause I know Vladimir Putin will say, and I've read the polling that Russian state media has produced saying, you know, whatever, 80% of Eastern Ukrainians, uh, want to separate or they want independence, uh, in those regions.
00:15:27.440And we, you know, we can't trust Russian, uh, state numbers, but then I also know here in the West, we're supposed to acknowledge the numbers like zero or what have you, but it's not zero.
00:15:34.800There's, there's stuff going on there.
00:15:36.180I mean, I will say, obviously sovereign country, you don't cross that line.
00:15:49.200I mean, we cannot trust any of the polling that the, the Russians put out there.
00:15:53.300Uh, let's not forget the 2014, uh, referendum in Crimea.
00:15:56.940The, the Russians claim that the overwhelming, uh, number of Crimeans wanted to join the, the, the Russian Federation.
00:16:03.780I mean, that, it was just a fabricated number.
00:16:06.640All elections in, in Russia are shams.
00:16:09.080Uh, the, the, the outcomes of those elections or referendums are predetermined.
00:16:14.340And so, you know, are there a percentage be though?
00:16:17.820Uh, in, in Eastern, in Eastern Ukraine right now, it's, I mean, it's hard to say how many, how many people, how many Ukrainians remain there?
00:16:25.080How many, how many pro-Russians remain there?
00:16:28.140It's, it's really hard to say because that entire region has been Russian controlled, de facto Russian controlled, uh, since 2014.
00:16:35.020So there's no independent way of verifying how many people would, would, uh, would support joining Russia.
00:16:40.880You know, it's probably, uh, somewhere between a quarter, maybe, maybe a bit more than that.
00:16:47.040Um, you know, I think that a lot of, especially if you look at Crimea, um, anyone who did support Crimea, and there have been some good BBC reports about this, um, where people were interviewed before Crimea was invaded.
00:17:00.640Uh, where they said, no, I think, you know, Russia would support us more than the Ukrainian government.
00:17:05.060And then they've done interviews several years afterwards where all these people, the same people are saying, good Lord, did we ever make a mistake?
00:17:12.180Um, you know, we want to get back to Ukraine.
00:17:14.720And, you know, quite frankly, even though, you know, Ukraine has been struggling.
00:17:18.660And sorry, why did they say that? Is it quality of life?
00:17:45.820Uh, and the same can be said for, for Crimea.
00:17:48.320So, uh, you know, any, any, anything that the, the Crimeans had, uh, under, you know, if it was, life was difficult, uh, to a certain degree under, under Ukrainian rule,
00:17:58.460before the invasion of 2014, things have only gotten much, much worse.
00:18:02.160Um, and, and I think that those, and most people in Eastern Ukraine probably recognize that as well.
00:18:07.860That, that this is, you know, joining Russia will not bring too much benefit into their lives.
00:18:12.920And that joining Ukraine, especially if it's moving in the direction of the West and the EU, it's probably a better direction to go in for them.
00:18:20.400We'll be back in just a moment with more full comment with guest Marcus Kolka.
00:19:19.620Um, you know, I think originally that was the plan.
00:19:23.040Uh, clearly Vladimir Putin went off piste as it were.
00:19:27.300Um, I don't think that any of his generals or his inner circle was expecting him to, uh, invade the rest of Ukraine.
00:19:34.940I think, uh, his ambition was to, uh, clearly to take over all of Ukraine, uh, remove its, its current, uh, presidents, uh, and its government, replace it one that was friendly to him.
00:19:47.360Um, but clearly things have not gone very well.
00:19:50.080Uh, the Ukrainian army is, uh, you know, performing miracles.
00:19:53.860Uh, no one expected the Ukrainian army to do as, as well as it, as it has.
00:19:59.240Um, and clearly morale within the Russian army itself is, is very, very low.
00:20:04.680Uh, none of these conscripts that have been thrust onto the front.
00:20:07.800They were, they were told that they would be going into a special operation to, quote unquote, de-nazify, uh, Ukraine's Jewish-led government.
00:20:18.160Uh, and they arrived there and were told to shoot, uh, men, women, and children, uh, to bomb schools and hospitals and apartment buildings.
00:20:27.420Um, you know, Russians aren't naturally barbaric like their president.
00:20:32.700Uh, the Russian people are good people.
00:20:34.300And, uh, and that's, I think, why we're seeing this very low morale.
00:20:50.800And so there's even, you know, accounts of, of, of soldiers killing their, their commanders.
00:20:57.420And so I think that this has caused Vladimir Putin to readjust his strategy right now.
00:21:02.020He's probably pulling, pulling back on a number of fronts.
00:21:05.500Um, the likely outcome, his demands during this peace process will be to, uh, keep Donbass, to keep Eastern Ukraine, to keep, obviously, Crimea, but also to maintain a land bridge between Crimea and Russia, which will include, uh, holding onto the city of Mariupol,
00:21:26.820which he has bombed back to the Stone Age.
00:21:29.620Um, so that's, that's probably going to be his demand, uh, in the next few weeks.
00:21:34.800And, and we're clearly seeing that his, the way that he's moving his troops are going to back, that's, that's, it's also signaling that that's going to be the, uh, the primary objective in the weeks to come.
00:21:45.500Now there have been talks going on between Ukrainian negotiators and Russian negotiators.
00:21:50.640So the very idea of having talks suggests there's, there's something to negotiate besides, uh, either side, just demanding that the other side, 100% desist.
00:21:59.320Do you think there will be something like that where Ukraine kind of acknowledges, as you've said, oh, you guys have really been in this area and, you know, Crimea in the East for so many years, uh, you know, fine, we'll negotiate something like that.
00:22:45.980Um, uh, you know, I think it's, it's sort of freezes the situation for that time.
00:22:51.540I think that Zelensky is trying to, uh, you know, he's playing, he's hoping to play out the clock with, with Putin.
00:22:57.900Hopefully, you know, Putin, uh, is removed from power or something else happens to him.
00:23:03.740And then maybe in 10 years time, if there's no Putin, maybe this, you know, that opens the window to have it, having, uh, uh, uh, Crimea reunified with, with, with Ukraine.
00:23:22.020I take the point that a lot of those buddies maybe got, you know, poisoned down the line and so forth, but others, presumably there's still connection.
00:23:29.060To what degree is this a one man show?
00:23:32.520And I take the point that you said the generals weren't even let in on these plans, but to what degree, okay, Putin's gone for, by whatever means.
00:23:39.980When he's gone, do things do a one 80 or is there a culture in the upper brass that basically continues things more or less consistent with Putin's ideology?
00:23:51.560Well, you know, I mean, it, it depends on so many different things.
00:23:55.360You know, I, if, if Vladimir Putin and let's not forget Vladimir Putin changed the Russian constitution just last summer.
00:24:02.540Um, and this would allow him to remain in power until at least 2035, um, you know, and there's no reason to believe that he would actually, if he were still alive, that he would leave at that point.
00:24:14.260So if all things remain the same, uh, if he were to remain in power, um, which is his objective to remain as power for as long as possible and to consolidate more and more power, um, then we're in real trouble because we've seen over the past 22 years, the cycle of conflict that he creates, his neo-imperialist aggression, his appetite for, for violence, um, and to destabilize the Western world.
00:24:43.800Um, it's only intensified over the past 10 years, it will get worse.
00:24:48.280Um, this is only feeding into his appetite, the destruction, the wanton destruction, uh, the killing of civilians that's feeding into this appetite and that appetite is only going to grow.
00:24:58.820So that's one option that he stays there pretty much forever.
00:25:01.660Um, the, the, the second possibility is that, uh, his miscalculations in Ukraine now have caused the inner circle to start questioning.
00:25:13.800Whether he's fit to remain, um, that means the oligarchs who serve him, um, who hold his wealth for him, um, and who Putin allows to continue amassing wealth, um, do they get together and say, we've got to do something?
00:25:35.880These are the security, there's the security apparatus, the same, the, the old KGB, um, who, uh, who protects Vladimir Putin, engages in all sorts of corruption, um, and, uh, essentially keeps the Russian people repressed.
00:25:51.040Um, they will likely not give up power very easily, but if someone within that group decides that, well, maybe we need a change, um, that's possible as well.
00:26:01.840But I don't think in either of those cases, we're going to see any sort of positive change.
00:26:07.120We're not going to see a Russia that suddenly moves towards a more democratic Western sort of position.
00:26:12.760I think the best case scenario for Russia is that the people finally rise up, um, you know, unfortunately, these repressions are, are going to start biting, uh, probably towards the end of the summer.
00:26:25.960If they remain, the, the sanctions will really start biting in the fall and the winter of next year, especially if we cut off more of, more of, uh, the revenue for, for, uh, more of Putin's revenues.
00:26:36.100And if there's a popular uprising, that's the only way that we're going to see a Russia that becomes a more normal Western sort of style democracy that respects human rights.
00:26:47.660And again, it's, you know, the, the sovereignty of its neighbors and its own people.
00:26:51.400That's, I think that's the best case scenario that we could hope for.
00:26:57.040Because I know we initially saw thousands of Russians taking to the streets saying, we don't support this war.
00:27:02.380And many of them were arrested or charged.
00:27:05.680I suppose many of them were not because you can't take all of them into paddy wagons, but we haven't continued to see numbers grow and grow every day and every weekend.
00:27:14.680And maybe Russians aren't crazy about this war or they don't entirely understand why do we necessarily have to do this?
00:27:20.420But is this situation enough to turn people against Putin?
00:27:25.300Do they want to, what, what is the pro anti Putin sentiment right now?
00:27:29.220I mean, at the start of this conflict, there were several thousand, thousands of Russians were taking the streets in St. Petersburg and Moscow.
00:27:36.900It's reported that 15,000 were arrested during those protests.
00:27:44.880It's difficult for us to understand it because it is so big, but it's a huge number.
00:27:49.120And then just a few days after that, Vladimir Putin introduced legislation that outlawed anyone mentioning the word war in the context of what was happening in Ukraine or telling the truth of what was going on there at all.
00:28:04.860And that meant that if, you know, you or I were talking about it, we lived in Moscow, the police could come and charge us and we might face up to 15 years in prison.
00:28:42.480The second thing that's sort of problematic in this regard is that Vladimir Putin has basically sealed off Russia, completely sealed off Russia from the Western world in the context of information.
00:28:56.800So he's he's created his own Internet.
00:29:00.680He's blocked off all social media, all Western media.
00:29:04.760He has outlawed all independent media.
00:29:08.780The last newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, was shut down just a few days ago.
00:29:13.540And so there is no more independent media left in Russia.
00:29:16.800He completely controls the information environment at this point.
00:29:21.140And unfortunately, that's having an effect of boosting support for the war.
00:29:26.100Most Russians do do not realize what is actually happening in Ukraine.
00:29:30.800They believe that this is just a small special operation that is limited in scope.
00:29:35.580They're not yet seeing the mass Russian casualties that are occurring.
00:29:41.160And so, you know, for right now, Vladimir Putin is winning that information war at home.
00:29:47.380He is controlling the narrative and his popularity is rising.
00:29:50.680But once the truth starts trickling in, it'll be, you know, it'll be interesting to see what happens.
00:29:58.020And, you know, as we were talking about earlier, you know, how does how does all this end for Vladimir Putin?
00:30:02.220I suspect that when the Russian people start, you know, again, the sanctions start biting, the truth starts trickling in.
00:30:07.340I don't think it's going to end very well for Vladimir Putin.
00:30:09.300Marcus, we do hear a lot of renewed pessimism, though, about the state of the world in general, democratic backsliding, leaning more towards authoritarian power, doing OK in some sense.
00:30:23.100We have the sense that that the world stands against Putin.
00:30:26.760And we certainly see that in our media and NATO countries.
00:30:31.640I read an interesting essay by Edward Looch in the Financial Times breaking down the idea that, hold on a second, let's not mistake Western unity for global consensus.
00:30:40.900And he points out that a UN vote of the 35 nations that abstained against condemning Russia, he writes the 35 that abstained account for half the world's population.
00:30:51.300China, of course, is playing it down the middle, but so is India, Vietnam, South Africa, some very populous nations.
00:30:59.360Maybe they don't fully support what's going on, but they still go, well, we're just going to stand on the sidelines and, I don't know, side with the winner or what have you, not ruffle Putin's feathers.
00:31:09.700Well, you know, I was actually quite shocked that India abstained from that vote.
00:31:13.940I mean, I'm shocked to a certain degree, but, you know, I think that India likes playing it both ways when it comes to China, China and Russia.
00:31:22.100I would argue that India would be far better off if it started working with the Western democratic world, though.
00:31:27.980You know, in other cases, you know, you mentioned China.
00:31:31.420I think China is has been very closely watching what is going to what's happening in Ukraine, how the West reacts to it.
00:31:40.400But they, of course, China is is is keen on on erasing Taiwan's sovereignty and its democracy.
00:31:52.400And so I think that, you know, the way that we are reacting with Ukraine, again, they're watching that very closely because I think they're they they have plans for Taiwan.
00:32:02.500I think the Western world ultimately has done a fairly good job of reacting.
00:32:08.440I mean, there's so much more that we can do, but certainly the sanctions, the the mass sanctions that we've placed on to Russia.
00:33:12.880Russia jumped back into Africa about seven or eight years ago and has and has really, I mean,
00:33:21.140connected with some of the most corrupt regimes, not surprisingly, in Africa with offers to prop them up in exchange for concessions on on natural resources.
00:33:32.360And so, you know, I think a lot of the nations that we saw abstain from that vote are are results of that, you know, renewed Russian influence in in Africa and other in other places in Southeast Asia as well.
00:33:43.680So this is something I think that the Western world also has to be aware of, that that these two China and Russia are are playing in are are playing that game in those regions.
00:33:53.680And, you know, we need to become more active in places like Africa and and Southeast Asia.
00:33:59.640So, Marcus, you talked about doing more and we hear a lot about that discussions in Canadian media.
00:34:06.500And there's obviously the personal angle in terms of making contributions to humanitarian aid, a lot of individuals doing civil society efforts to bring over refugees and to to welcome displaced Ukrainian persons here in Canada.
00:34:21.260I mean, we're giving so much in terms of, of course, funds and there's degrees of military aid.
00:34:26.400Lots of questions about a no fly zone.
00:34:28.120Zelensky originally asking for all of that.
00:34:30.920NATO boss Jan Stoltenberg saying it can happen.
00:34:33.980President Biden, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau siding with them.
00:34:36.980A lot of people have mixed minds of that.
00:34:39.300I'm of the view that I support us not enforcing a no fly zone in terms of the spiraling effects that that that can bring about in terms of a conflict.
00:34:48.400And Zelensky himself, I noticed, did basically admit that it was fair to characterize Ukraine as a gray zone, obviously not a NATO nation.
00:34:56.300And where do you stand in these questions in terms of the do more in terms of muscle?
00:35:01.840Do more means sending more lethal defensive weapons.
00:35:05.360It means sending more anti tank weapons.
00:35:07.260It means sending drones where possible.
00:35:09.780It means sending the surface to air missiles to to empower the Ukrainians themselves to to defend their their country.
00:35:18.140It's clear that NATO is not going to get involved.
00:35:21.780With regards to no fly zones, though, you know, we need to make damn sure whether it's in the U.N., NATO or coalition of the willing that we secure those green corridors.
00:35:32.780So allow the the thousands upon thousands of refugees who are stuck in cities like Kharkiv in Mariupol in Chernyov, ensure that they can get out safely.
00:35:46.140You know, every time Russia guarantees a safe corridor for them to escape, they open fire on refugees just today.
00:35:54.600They committed to allowing refugees to leave Mariupol or citizens, residents of Mariupol.
00:36:56.180And to say, OK, here's your here's your free travel and then, oh, no, we're going to fire on you is just the most morally despicable thing there is.
00:37:02.340But doesn't that still present the same logistical challenges that a no fly zone creates if this is something that's being done in Ukrainian soil?
00:37:15.940Yeah, of course it has the same hazard.
00:37:17.480But this is I think the the humanitarian aspect needs to be taken to the UN.
00:37:22.880This is something that the UN needs to to vote on.
00:37:26.520We know, of course, that the Russians have a veto in the Security Council.
00:37:29.680So it would probably veto this, but it needs to go through this process.
00:37:34.120And if the UN rejects any protection of these refugees, then we need to look elsewhere.
00:37:40.580And maybe that is, you know, NATO, NATO plus.
00:37:43.840So maybe it's NATO plus Sweden, Finland.
00:37:47.340Maybe there are some, you know, other nations outside of Europe and North America that would want to to help with that.
00:37:54.420But I'm not seeing that effort right now.
00:37:56.060And this is that's the the path to protecting those people, because that's I think for us in Canada, I mean, obviously, Ukraine's sovereignty is is of is a priority.