Full Comment - September 23, 2024


Trudeau belongs to the Bloc separatists now

Topics
no confidence motion block bloc ascendancy Champagne by-election loss by-election results by-election timing housing policy
Hosted by
Brian Lilley Anthony Furey Tristin Hopper
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Stuart Thompson Stephen Harper Doug Ford Leslie Church Boris Johnson Elmwood Transcona Political Hack Maxime Bernier Carl Belanger Jack Layton Craig Sauvé Kevin Libin Polly Ev Frankie Chrystia Freeland Francois Philippe Champagne Pure Paul Live Pure Polly Ed and 31 more
‘Wokeness’ is a mind disease…but it can be beaten We know the UN is immoral. This guy rubs it in their face

Episode Stats


Length

52 minutes

Words per minute

185.81

Word count

9,677

Sentence count

773

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

19

sentences flagged

Hate speech

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In the latest episode of Full Comment, host Brian Lylee Lilly is joined by National Post columnist Stuart Thompson and political writer Tasha Carradine to discuss the chaos in Canadian politics right now, including the non-confidence motion the Tories are bringing against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
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00:01:11.660 You're richer than you think.
00:01:12.740 Uncertainty.
00:01:23.200 Instability.
00:01:23.880 Those seem to be the biggest words to describe the situation in Canadian politics right now.
00:01:28.380 Hello, I'm Brian Lilly.
00:01:29.820 Welcome to Full Comment Podcast.
00:01:31.760 If you haven't heard, Jagmeet Sane ripped up his agreement.
00:01:35.520 Let me say that again.
00:01:36.400 Jagmeet Sane ripped up his agreement with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
00:01:39.840 We talked about that last week.
00:01:41.740 But since then, the Conservatives have said they will bring in a non-confidence motion.
00:01:45.700 They've released the wording of the motion.
00:01:47.780 And opposition parties who are not the Conservatives have said,
00:01:52.400 oh, we couldn't possibly vote for that.
00:01:54.460 There's so much to go on.
00:01:55.760 Plus, by-election results to dissect.
00:01:58.560 Wanted to bring in a political roundtable.
00:02:01.400 Stuart Thompson and Tasha Carradine both write and work with National Post.
00:02:04.980 They are also the pair behind the newsletter Political Hack.
00:02:08.400 Tasha joins me from outside Toronto.
00:02:10.320 Stuart from Ottawa.
00:02:11.860 Thanks to both of you for coming on.
00:02:14.360 Our pleasure.
00:02:15.140 Thanks, man.
00:02:16.060 I didn't get your official title in there, Stuart,
00:02:18.260 because I don't pay attention to titles.
00:02:20.100 But you can tell me what it is.
00:02:21.480 I'm the Ottawa Bureau Chief.
00:02:23.840 Ottawa Bureau Chief.
00:02:24.960 Yeah.
00:02:25.280 And Tasha, of course, columnist of long-renowned.
00:02:28.320 It sounds weird to say Ottawa Bureau Chief.
00:02:30.700 Yeah.
00:02:31.180 It's new.
00:02:31.900 So yeah, it doesn't sound right.
00:02:33.760 It sounds like somebody made a clerical error.
00:02:35.400 I had that title for News Talk 1010 and CJID years ago.
00:02:39.180 It gets you into meetings.
00:02:41.040 Take that title and run with it.
00:02:42.740 You find out stuff that sometimes you can't publish ahead of time.
00:02:47.200 But it is fantastic having that,
00:02:49.240 because you get the info before anybody else does,
00:02:52.340 because you may have to assign someone.
00:02:55.120 So it doesn't look like you'll have to assign anyone to go and,
00:02:59.500 you know,
00:03:01.180 go to Rideau Hall and wait for an election call,
00:03:03.660 because despite the Conservatives putting out a very,
00:03:07.600 I thought,
00:03:09.160 generic motion,
00:03:10.480 one that the NDP and the bloc should be able to vote for,
00:03:14.060 it simply says the House has no confidence in the Prime Minister or the government.
00:03:19.560 No mention of a carbon tax,
00:03:20.840 nothing like that.
00:03:22.080 The bloc came out first and said,
00:03:24.520 oh, no,
00:03:24.880 we won't support that.
00:03:26.460 And of course,
00:03:27.040 they want a pound of flesh or a few billion dollars in exchange for that.
00:03:32.140 But bizarrely,
00:03:33.280 the NDP came out and said,
00:03:34.960 yeah,
00:03:35.140 and we won't vote for it either,
00:03:36.580 even though we ripped up our agreement
00:03:38.480 and think this is the worst government ever.
00:03:41.420 So what the heck is going on?
00:03:44.320 Well,
00:03:44.860 yeah,
00:03:45.020 we had about an hour of suspense because the peer poly have came out in the morning
00:03:49.940 and said,
00:03:50.320 we're going to do this motion.
00:03:51.200 It'll happen on Tuesday.
00:03:52.280 Here's the wording.
00:03:53.080 And we had,
00:03:54.260 I think in the post bureau,
00:03:55.720 the same thought that you had,
00:03:56.660 which is that this is just a clean motion.
00:03:58.640 So,
00:03:59.000 you know,
00:04:00.340 it's got more chance of succeeding than another one.
00:04:03.160 It didn't have the sort of poison pills that might make the NDP not vote for it.
00:04:08.420 But Blanchep came out pretty quickly.
00:04:11.200 The bloc said,
00:04:11.800 no,
00:04:11.960 no,
00:04:12.080 we're not going to do this.
00:04:13.320 Um,
00:04:13.840 and I think they,
00:04:15.060 they have not been big fans of peer poly have the block.
00:04:19.220 That's been actually kind of a subplot on the Hill is the conservative block back and forth.
00:04:24.320 And I don't think that they want to be seen as the party that brings down the government with peer poly have.
00:04:31.060 I think there's an optics thing.
00:04:32.060 I think there's an optics thing going on here.
00:04:33.240 There's also a lot of these parties aren't ready for an election.
00:04:36.520 I don't think,
00:04:37.580 uh,
00:04:37.800 other than peer poly have anybody truly wants one.
00:04:40.660 Um,
00:04:41.020 but there is this game of,
00:04:42.220 we don't want to look like we don't want to look like we're propping up a really,
00:04:44.960 really unpopular government,
00:04:45.960 but we also don't want to look like we're bringing peer poly have to power.
00:04:49.360 So this is kind of the high wire act that we're seeing right now.
00:04:52.080 Well,
00:04:52.720 I'm old enough to remember when Jack Layton and,
00:04:55.740 uh,
00:04:56.520 the block,
00:04:57.020 uh,
00:04:57.220 Gilles Duceppe at the block Québécois did not want to bring down Paul Martin's government,
00:05:01.060 but eventually got to the point where they all said,
00:05:05.240 yeah,
00:05:05.520 this government's really unpopular and they have to go.
00:05:07.920 Tasha,
00:05:09.020 at,
00:05:09.320 at some point,
00:05:10.600 the other parties have to pull the plug,
00:05:12.920 don't they?
00:05:13.400 Or are we going until October,
00:05:15.320 2025?
00:05:16.440 I doubt we'll go until October,
00:05:17.940 2025.
00:05:18.380 I do think that the budget offers the natural opportunity in the spring for them to pull the
00:05:25.180 plug.
00:05:26.020 I think this motion,
00:05:27.360 um,
00:05:28.100 honestly,
00:05:28.660 I was actually,
00:05:29.340 I was actually thinking to myself,
00:05:31.580 when you say I,
00:05:32.280 we have no confidence in the prime minister of the government.
00:05:35.060 Actually,
00:05:35.420 that's not great wording because what if you have a bit of confidence?
00:05:38.120 You have confidence,
00:05:38.960 for example,
00:05:39.420 the block Québécois says they're going to pass that bill,
00:05:42.100 that private members bill we have to improve OAS payments to seniors,
00:05:46.360 raise them for people who are 65 to 75,
00:05:49.480 same level at 75,
00:05:51.140 the one that you're talking about billions of dollars.
00:05:53.260 We have some confidence that prime minister will do that.
00:05:55.380 We have a bit of confidence that maybe he'll do more stuff for Quebec.
00:05:58.540 No confidence?
00:05:59.360 Now we can't go that far.
00:06:00.760 I thought it actually wasn't the smartest wording,
00:06:02.800 but,
00:06:03.200 and not semantics aside.
00:06:04.940 But,
00:06:05.120 but no,
00:06:05.540 the motion to pass,
00:06:06.880 if you're going to topple a government,
00:06:08.220 it actually has to say that you've lost confidence in the government.
00:06:11.500 Ah,
00:06:11.860 lost confidence is different than no confidence.
00:06:14.080 You've lost confidence.
00:06:15.080 You might have a little left,
00:06:16.240 but anyway,
00:06:16.960 not to break it down to semantics,
00:06:18.620 but I think there was no chance,
00:06:21.160 there was zero chance they were going to support this for,
00:06:23.300 for a couple of reasons.
00:06:24.200 One,
00:06:24.840 the block just said before this motion was even introduced,
00:06:28.340 that it would not bring the government down.
00:06:30.980 Blasch said,
00:06:31.600 we have a list of things that we want to get this government to do.
00:06:34.720 The block's agenda is to get the government to do those things.
00:06:37.840 And once they're done,
00:06:38.540 it can say,
00:06:38.960 look,
00:06:39.200 we,
00:06:39.420 we pushed the government on this and if they don't do them,
00:06:41.700 they say,
00:06:41.980 oh,
00:06:42.060 it's Ottawa's fault. 0.98
00:06:42.880 They're terrible.
00:06:43.320 And then they'll bring them down after that's done.
00:06:45.860 So they have something to run on in the next election.
00:06:48.300 The NDP Jagmeet Singh already walked it back after he had said that he'd ripped up the agreement.
00:06:53.220 He was asked,
00:06:53.760 well,
00:06:53.840 would you bring the government down?
00:06:54.860 He goes,
00:06:55.040 well,
00:06:55.840 no.
00:06:56.160 I was at his news conference here in Toronto where half a dozen of us tried to get him to say whether he had confidence in the government or not.
00:07:07.400 I asked him six times once in one question.
00:07:10.940 And then I kept interrupting him because he wouldn't say Laura Stone from the globe tried David Aiken from a global tried reporter from Radio Canada tried everybody tried.
00:07:22.000 He wouldn't say anything.
00:07:23.160 The block gets something out of this and I'll let whichever one of you wants to jump in on this.
00:07:28.200 The block will clearly get something and they're brazen.
00:07:30.920 They're like,
00:07:31.180 yeah,
00:07:31.440 we want our demands met.
00:07:34.040 I don't think that the NDP can get anything out of this.
00:07:37.260 I don't think that they have any bargaining or negotiating power left.
00:07:41.480 You could see like the happiest people on the Hill were the block.
00:07:47.320 And I don't know if you guys saw them.
00:07:48.960 They did their retreat at the Fairmont Montebello,
00:07:53.160 which if you've ever been there,
00:07:54.060 it's very nice.
00:07:54.800 There's a certain brazenness about the block that I just kind of love.
00:07:58.660 They,
00:07:59.260 while everybody else was at holiday inns and trying to look like,
00:08:02.340 you know,
00:08:02.500 they were being frugal,
00:08:03.920 the block was just super happy to be at this beautiful hotel.
00:08:07.160 Okay.
00:08:07.680 So for people that.
00:08:08.580 They were supporting at the back hotel.
00:08:10.220 They were supporting Quebec,
00:08:11.900 you know,
00:08:12.120 Quebec gang.
00:08:12.680 So they were happy.
00:08:13.260 Yeah.
00:08:13.560 Okay.
00:08:13.880 But,
00:08:14.140 but if for people that don't know shadow Montebello it's across the river
00:08:18.780 from Ottawa,
00:08:20.080 about 45 minutes away.
00:08:21.680 It is part of the Fairmont chain.
00:08:24.100 It was originally built in the 1930s by an American industrialist as a
00:08:28.420 private hunting club.
00:08:30.300 And it looks like what you would expect the private hunting club for an
00:08:34.020 American billionaire from the 1920s or thirties to look like it's
00:08:37.820 stunning.
00:08:38.560 It's gorgeous.
00:08:39.560 It's opulent.
00:08:41.240 And yeah,
00:08:42.620 you're right.
00:08:43.580 The liberals did a meeting,
00:08:45.740 what a Sudbury holiday in recently.
00:08:49.220 Yes.
00:08:49.820 We're not even sponsored by the Fairmont chain here,
00:08:52.580 but we just do genuinely think it is that great.
00:08:54.740 And that,
00:08:55.860 that kind of sums up the block right now is that they are just living their
00:08:59.580 best lives.
00:09:00.160 They know this is their moment.
00:09:01.900 I mean,
00:09:02.740 before when the NDP and the liberals were working together,
00:09:05.200 the block was kind of shut out and the next big change will probably be a
00:09:10.520 conservative government.
00:09:11.220 I think that's probably the betting odds right now.
00:09:13.900 They're not going to get anything out of that.
00:09:16.500 Maybe a conservative minority.
00:09:18.500 Yeah.
00:09:18.680 In a conservative minority,
00:09:20.060 they might.
00:09:21.220 Stephen Harper gave the block all kinds of things,
00:09:23.520 but that's because he just promised to stay out of their jurisdiction,
00:09:27.940 out of Quebec's jurisdiction.
00:09:29.560 On the Venn diagram of conservatives and separatists stay out of my
00:09:32.720 business is the overlap.
00:09:34.260 I think in a majority,
00:09:35.580 they get nothing.
00:09:36.320 And I think all,
00:09:36.980 all polls point to a conservative majority.
00:09:39.320 And I think that's the calculus is that once the conservatives get in with
00:09:43.340 a majority,
00:09:43.780 it's four years of put up and shut up. 0.81
00:09:46.400 No, 0.97
00:09:46.540 one's going to listen to you.
00:09:47.860 So the NDP has never had it as good as it has now.
00:09:50.860 The block will never have it as good as it has now.
00:09:54.040 So neither of them has any incentive to bring the government down.
00:09:58.060 I think to your point though,
00:09:59.160 at a point they will be forced to will be the budget because that is what I
00:10:03.040 would call a natural confidence vote.
00:10:05.120 It is of its own nature.
00:10:06.400 It's not forced.
00:10:07.500 They don't want to give Pierre Polyev the credit for forcing the government
00:10:11.400 to fall.
00:10:12.320 They will do it at a moment that just arises unless there's some huge
00:10:16.820 catastrophe that could happen.
00:10:18.340 You never know where the government makes some kind of a massive egregious
00:10:22.020 mistake.
00:10:22.640 And then people would be saying,
00:10:25.060 yes,
00:10:25.360 absolutely.
00:10:25.860 That's the last straw,
00:10:26.800 but we haven't hit that straw yet.
00:10:28.360 We're still waiting for that straw,
00:10:29.620 Brian.
00:10:30.420 When we look at the,
00:10:32.220 the polling in regional areas,
00:10:36.540 and that matters far more than the national.
00:10:39.120 And I'll start with our,
00:10:40.240 our friends at Leger,
00:10:41.680 their most recent poll,
00:10:43.940 45% for Pierre Polyev and the conservatives nationally,
00:10:48.140 25% for Justin Trudeau and the liberals,
00:10:51.260 15% for Jagmeet Sane and the NDP,
00:10:54.240 8% for the bloc.
00:10:55.780 Now 8% for the bloc in Quebec translates into a big lead.
00:11:00.840 34% of the vote,
00:11:03.240 the conservatives and the liberals tied at 25.
00:11:06.860 How nervous are the liberals about the Quebec?
00:11:09.840 I mean,
00:11:11.740 fall from grace,
00:11:12.680 you might call it.
00:11:13.460 I've never,
00:11:14.260 never recall seeing the conservatives at 25.
00:11:17.300 I've seen them creep up to 20 and then fall back.
00:11:19.700 And then,
00:11:20.120 you know,
00:11:20.760 at the end of the election,
00:11:21.540 they,
00:11:21.900 they win their,
00:11:22.660 their rump in and around Quebec city,
00:11:25.400 and maybe some up in the Saguenay.
00:11:27.700 That's about it.
00:11:28.580 Normally.
00:11:28.900 Um,
00:11:30.260 do,
00:11:31.100 are the liberals falling?
00:11:32.780 It,
00:11:33.020 it,
00:11:33.560 does this playing up to Quebec work for them?
00:11:36.400 I'll ask you,
00:11:37.020 Tasha,
00:11:37.200 I know you've got a strong ties to Quebec.
00:11:39.620 What are your thoughts?
00:11:40.920 Yeah,
00:11:41.100 the liberal caucus is,
00:11:42.180 is very nervous right now.
00:11:43.260 They are actually asking for a specific liberal strategy for the bloc.
00:11:46.980 They have asked,
00:11:47.760 um,
00:11:48.820 the party,
00:11:49.520 like to say,
00:11:50.280 we want a separate strategy for the bloc.
00:11:52.880 Forget the conservatives in,
00:11:54.320 um,
00:11:55.240 in,
00:11:55.540 uh,
00:11:55.740 back.
00:11:56.300 The bloc is the real foe.
00:11:57.880 They're on the ascendancy.
00:11:59.140 We've got to fight them.
00:12:00.260 There's a lot of tension there.
00:12:01.460 And you saw,
00:12:02.180 um,
00:12:02.720 Pablo Rodriguez minister,
00:12:04.000 uh,
00:12:05.000 leave this week from his post at transport to run for the Quebec liberal party.
00:12:09.600 Okay.
00:12:09.740 Quebec liberal party right now is in third place in Quebec.
00:12:12.640 It is nowhere near power.
00:12:14.340 And yet leaving the sinking ship off he goes.
00:12:18.280 Um,
00:12:18.840 that's a blow to Trudeau as well,
00:12:20.500 because he's the Quebec left tenant.
00:12:22.320 So there's definitely a sense in the Quebec liberal party,
00:12:25.180 uh,
00:12:25.860 among MPs.
00:12:26.680 This is a problem.
00:12:27.720 There is a big problem.
00:12:29.100 The bloc is that problem.
00:12:31.040 Stuart,
00:12:31.560 maybe you can speak to this.
00:12:32.740 I understand a bit of tension within the Quebec caucus of the liberal party,
00:12:36.900 uh,
00:12:37.660 which isn't their biggest part.
00:12:38.780 That'd be Ontario,
00:12:39.420 but it's still core to the liberal identity,
00:12:41.860 how they do in Quebec.
00:12:43.500 Um,
00:12:44.300 people like Francois Philippe Champagne,
00:12:46.000 Frankie bubbles,
00:12:46.900 not very bubbly or happy with Rodriguez.
00:12:50.560 You're laughing,
00:12:51.360 Tasha.
00:12:51.660 Have you never heard him called Frankie bubbles?
00:12:53.200 I love that.
00:12:54.000 I love,
00:12:54.280 I laugh whenever I,
00:12:55.200 I think I hear that name.
00:12:56.600 Cause I think I've heard him say it about himself.
00:12:58.380 He is very like a little bottle of champagne.
00:13:00.000 I,
00:13:01.000 if you ask him,
00:13:02.220 I gave him the nickname years ago and he quite likes it.
00:13:05.260 Um,
00:13:05.820 so,
00:13:06.380 you know,
00:13:06.820 but Champagne is one of the people who's been complaining about a lack of a
00:13:11.780 proper strategy,
00:13:12.620 uh,
00:13:13.660 under Pablo Rodriguez's management as Quebec Lieutenant.
00:13:18.220 Yeah.
00:13:18.660 And Rodriguez is responsible for the candidates they put up for these by
00:13:23.320 elections and most of the writings in Quebec.
00:13:25.620 So if you are looking at LaSalle,
00:13:28.000 this is the by-election that they lost on Monday.
00:13:31.200 Um,
00:13:31.600 they didn't have a high profile candidate.
00:13:33.460 It was a city councilor from the area.
00:13:35.200 Not even a city councilor,
00:13:36.880 a borough councilor,
00:13:38.220 which is like below that.
00:13:40.580 Montreal's,
00:13:41.020 um,
00:13:41.920 municipal politics is weird,
00:13:43.320 but it's like,
00:13:44.460 you are the sub counselor for your neighborhood is what Linda Palestini was. 1.00
00:13:50.440 Yeah.
00:13:50.920 And they lost that by a couple of hundred votes.
00:13:53.960 And,
00:13:54.440 you know,
00:13:54.940 if you talk to people on the ground,
00:13:56.240 the strategist types,
00:13:57.220 they'll tell you that probably about 5% of the,
00:14:00.620 um,
00:14:00.840 of the race is local stuff.
00:14:03.000 The rest is sort of national opinions,
00:14:04.680 the national campaign in a general election.
00:14:07.080 But I think in a by-election,
00:14:09.060 you can say,
00:14:09.820 if you lose by 250 votes and you had a subpar candidate,
00:14:14.360 you probably could have won if you had a better candidate.
00:14:17.520 And I think with all the resources and all the volunteers going into that
00:14:20.720 riding,
00:14:21.600 um,
00:14:22.100 I think there's a lot of finger pointing going on.
00:14:23.980 And part of this goes back to Toronto St.
00:14:26.500 Paul's where that was a catastrophic loss for the Ontario faction of the
00:14:30.420 liberal party.
00:14:31.200 But there was a certain amount of,
00:14:33.740 I don't want to say smugness.
00:14:35.360 It's not quite the right word,
00:14:36.480 but there was a certain amount of like,
00:14:37.840 you know,
00:14:38.020 that's the Ontario guys that doesn't happen in Montreal.
00:14:40.680 That was the attitude all summer.
00:14:42.420 And now they've had the exact same thing happen in their backyard to a
00:14:45.720 liberal leader whose writing is basically adjacent to that one.
00:14:49.000 To,
00:14:49.720 uh,
00:14:50.380 to tie in the two by-election losses,
00:14:53.420 I remember it was,
00:14:55.040 uh,
00:14:55.420 last November or December,
00:14:56.800 and they had not yet declared when the by-election would be happening.
00:15:02.440 We knew that,
00:15:03.640 um,
00:15:04.460 Carolyn Bennett's leaving. 0.96
00:15:06.320 Everyone knew in Toronto political circles that Leslie Church,
00:15:10.260 Christy Freeland's former chief of staff had moved back to Toronto and she
00:15:13.680 was working hard for the nomination.
00:15:15.680 Uh,
00:15:16.220 I've worked with Ms. 0.98
00:15:17.360 Church when she was in the private sector at Google.
00:15:19.320 I have no issue with her,
00:15:20.860 um,
00:15:21.480 long time liberal soldier.
00:15:23.620 Uh,
00:15:24.120 but I was talking to a top liberal and I said,
00:15:26.480 are you guys going to go with Leslie Church in Toronto St.
00:15:29.080 Paul's or are you looking for a star candidate?
00:15:32.320 And the guy at the other end of the phone laughed and said,
00:15:35.340 you think we can get star candidates these days?
00:15:38.420 And so like,
00:15:40.440 that's,
00:15:41.500 if you can't get a star candidate for a Toronto or a Montreal seat,
00:15:47.340 you're not getting star candidates anywhere.
00:15:50.040 And those are safe seats.
00:15:51.720 Those,
00:15:51.900 those two should be safe Toronto,
00:15:54.800 safe supposedly.
00:15:56.180 Um,
00:15:56.640 and you're right,
00:15:57.200 but there were candidates,
00:15:58.480 there were local,
00:15:59.560 uh,
00:16:00.020 candidates who wanted to be the candidate who were beating the bushes already
00:16:02.940 in,
00:16:03.520 um,
00:16:04.160 in La Salle,
00:16:04.820 uh,
00:16:05.040 Verdun.
00:16:05.660 And they were cast aside for the party.
00:16:08.420 And that didn't work.
00:16:11.540 You also had 50 staffers say,
00:16:14.020 we're not going to volunteer in the riding because we disagree with the
00:16:16.360 party's position on Israel Hamas conflict in Gaza.
00:16:19.400 Um,
00:16:19.820 you had the national campaign director quit.
00:16:22.800 You had,
00:16:23.940 um,
00:16:24.680 there was,
00:16:25.140 uh,
00:16:25.300 it was,
00:16:25.480 um,
00:16:25.780 another MP from Quebec who said,
00:16:27.600 my constituents want Trudeau to leave.
00:16:29.340 So all this stuff happened during the by-election.
00:16:31.760 People are,
00:16:32.280 are not paying rapt attention to all this,
00:16:34.880 but even one of those,
00:16:35.820 you hear it,
00:16:36.280 you think,
00:16:36.520 wow,
00:16:37.420 and why,
00:16:37.820 why should I vote liberal again?
00:16:39.440 They don't even think they can win.
00:16:40.880 So they had,
00:16:41.800 they were shooting themselves in the foot the entire time on top of it.
00:16:45.240 Were you guys watching the elections Canada update when the by-election
00:16:49.980 results finally started coming in with the 91?
00:16:52.280 I went to sleep.
00:16:53.040 I was waiting.
00:16:53.660 I was,
00:16:54.320 and then I was like,
00:16:55.000 no,
00:16:55.320 okay,
00:16:55.600 I got to go to bed.
00:16:56.520 So I didn't stay up to the bitter end.
00:16:58.260 I didn't stay up to the bitter end.
00:17:00.420 Uh,
00:17:00.780 but until about one o'clock I was watching and it just kept rolling over and it would be the liberal in front.
00:17:07.920 Then it would be the blockist in front. 0.97
00:17:09.820 Then it would be the,
00:17:11.760 uh,
00:17:12.840 you know,
00:17:13.540 the,
00:17:13.740 the NDP in front,
00:17:15.520 Craig Sauvé,
00:17:16.340 uh,
00:17:16.560 two candidates with the name Sauvé,
00:17:18.200 by the way,
00:17:18.720 love that.
00:17:19.840 Um,
00:17:20.500 no voter,
00:17:21.320 no voter confusion.
00:17:23.060 Yeah,
00:17:23.480 but it,
00:17:23.980 you know,
00:17:24.240 it's the same as having two people named Johnson in Ontario,
00:17:26.740 right?
00:17:27.100 It's going to create some confusion.
00:17:29.620 Uh,
00:17:30.280 was it the,
00:17:31.020 uh,
00:17:32.440 rhinoceros party found someone named Maxime Bernier to run against Maxime Bernier in his riding?
00:17:36.940 Like that creates voter confusion,
00:17:39.160 but it,
00:17:40.800 that was one of the tightest races I've seen.
00:17:43.300 Yeah,
00:17:43.800 it was.
00:17:44.240 It was very tight,
00:17:44.880 but we,
00:17:45.360 it was anticipated to be,
00:17:46.640 well,
00:17:46.740 not that tight.
00:17:47.520 The block was leading more in polls that were coming out for more significantly,
00:17:51.540 but a lot of people thought it was,
00:17:53.920 it was going to be tight at the end.
00:17:55.580 Um,
00:17:55.980 it was a get out the boat kind of situation as well.
00:17:58.380 Uh,
00:17:58.780 so yeah,
00:17:59.820 I mean,
00:18:00.080 that just shows as well,
00:18:01.140 like if the liberals had two rivals in for this riding,
00:18:05.260 like the blocky did out, 0.95
00:18:06.780 but two and,
00:18:08.840 you know,
00:18:09.620 it,
00:18:10.000 I mean,
00:18:10.220 Pablo Rodriguez has not said he's going to resign.
00:18:12.240 He said he's going to keep his seat,
00:18:13.440 but honorary Mercier,
00:18:14.580 his riding could go NDP or could go block as well.
00:18:17.940 There have been both.
00:18:18.820 It's been held by both other parties during its history.
00:18:21.360 So who knows?
00:18:23.460 Stuart,
00:18:23.980 how much do you think the,
00:18:25.320 Israel Hamas conflict played in this?
00:18:28.460 Because Craig Sauvé brazenly went out and put out campaign literature with the
00:18:34.700 Palestinian flag.
00:18:36.000 Now I wrote about it.
00:18:37.420 I denounced it.
00:18:38.180 I'm now,
00:18:38.600 uh,
00:18:39.140 subject to a,
00:18:40.780 a campaign complaining about me to the national media council,
00:18:44.000 uh,
00:18:44.800 along with other journalists who wrote about it.
00:18:46.660 How dare you say bad things about this man?
00:18:48.600 He's a,
00:18:49.100 it's great.
00:18:49.460 Look,
00:18:49.860 I don't know the guy.
00:18:51.060 I just think campaigning under the flag of a foreign country in an election for Canada's
00:18:56.060 parliament is a bad idea.
00:18:58.060 Um,
00:18:58.660 and by the way,
00:18:59.160 the NDP defense on that,
00:19:00.900 if you didn't see it was,
00:19:02.040 uh,
00:19:02.940 I asked their senior comms person in Sain's office,
00:19:06.000 is this real?
00:19:07.020 Or did somebody Photoshop him with a Palestinian flag?
00:19:09.940 And they sent me four photos,
00:19:12.520 including three of Stephen Harper in foreign countries.
00:19:16.420 And one of Pierre Polly have at a rally on the Hill with an Israeli flag and said,
00:19:21.600 it's not unusual for politicians to be photographed with other,
00:19:24.880 uh,
00:19:25.920 uh,
00:19:26.540 foreign flags.
00:19:27.360 One of them was Stephen Harper addressing the Australian parliament in 2007.
00:19:32.940 I'm sorry.
00:19:33.640 That's not the same as he's going to campaign with the Palestinian flag.
00:19:37.920 But I mean,
00:19:38.800 if a candidate's willing to do that so much,
00:19:40.720 uh,
00:19:42.060 I looked at the demographics,
00:19:43.320 according to stats,
00:19:44.280 Canada,
00:19:44.620 it is about 5% Muslim,
00:19:48.000 um,
00:19:49.460 maybe a little bit higher if you add in Arab Christians.
00:19:53.200 Uh,
00:19:53.720 but you know,
00:19:54.840 they're not necessarily going to vote on that issue in the same way.
00:19:59.100 I thought that was an odd thing,
00:20:00.820 but it,
00:20:01.300 it appears to have played a big role in the campaign,
00:20:03.660 the NDP doing that.
00:20:04.620 But as Sasha pointed out the,
00:20:07.100 the 50 staffers saying we won't campaign for you.
00:20:10.680 All right,
00:20:10.860 you're fired.
00:20:11.680 Uh,
00:20:12.000 so,
00:20:12.560 but how big an issue was this in the by-election?
00:20:16.400 Yeah,
00:20:16.500 I think that both by-elections actually,
00:20:19.040 um,
00:20:19.700 the Toronto St.
00:20:20.300 Paul's one and this one,
00:20:21.420 I think it really is a good microcosm of the difficult issue for the liberals,
00:20:26.780 because there are sixes and sevens here and they do have to govern.
00:20:30.160 They have to do diplomacy and they have to campaign domestically too.
00:20:34.700 And also being the sort of center left party,
00:20:38.020 it's hard for them.
00:20:39.500 It's hard for them to really just choose a side.
00:20:41.480 Pure Paul Live has been able to just choose a side and stick with it.
00:20:43.920 Um,
00:20:44.520 makes things a lot easier.
00:20:46.220 The by-election in Toronto,
00:20:49.140 um,
00:20:49.520 heavily Jewish riding.
00:20:50.500 And you could actually say that was a big factor in,
00:20:52.560 and then losing there.
00:20:53.460 And then you go to LaSalle,
00:20:54.680 um,
00:20:55.320 where I think it's a,
00:20:56.380 you know,
00:20:57.080 small Muslim population,
00:20:58.260 but it's,
00:20:58.760 I think they're younger student activist types is what the NDP was appealing to there.
00:21:03.740 And the NDP was able just to go whole hog.
00:21:06.100 And I mean,
00:21:06.580 the campaign literature shows you they were going whole hog.
00:21:09.320 They were,
00:21:09.740 they were going as hard as they could.
00:21:11.060 There was no Canadian flag on that.
00:21:13.160 Their defense was,
00:21:14.020 well,
00:21:14.340 there's a maple leaf.
00:21:15.080 Yeah.
00:21:15.280 A maple leaf with the NDP logo at the top on,
00:21:18.320 on the Palestinian flag.
00:21:20.440 Uh,
00:21:20.880 that's not the same thing.
00:21:23.640 Yeah.
00:21:24.040 And I think there is like what the part of the problem the liberals are going to have here is that
00:21:28.760 it just engenders a kind of apathy about them where they're not seen as being on either side.
00:21:33.480 So anyone who has strong feelings is not going to go to the liberals.
00:21:36.600 And then usually the people,
00:21:38.820 you know,
00:21:39.800 who don't feel strongly about the conflict will be voting on cost of living or something like that.
00:21:44.480 So,
00:21:44.740 uh,
00:21:45.240 it's a tough issue for liberals.
00:21:46.240 And I think it probably did play a role in that by-election.
00:21:48.540 Tasha,
00:21:48.800 I got to ask you,
00:21:49.700 as someone who's worked on campaigns about the timing of this,
00:21:52.420 um,
00:21:53.540 in the Toronto St.
00:21:54.400 Paul's by-election,
00:21:55.900 they,
00:21:57.160 and everyone,
00:21:58.280 please remember the government determines the dates of these elections.
00:22:03.160 Um,
00:22:03.780 unlike the United States,
00:22:05.180 you know,
00:22:05.560 the government in charge doesn't run the election.
00:22:07.620 It's an independent group,
00:22:09.120 but they get to choose the date and the timing.
00:22:11.800 And in Toronto St.
00:22:13.000 Paul's,
00:22:13.720 they,
00:22:14.420 the other factor beyond Israel was the capital gains changes.
00:22:18.960 And they,
00:22:20.020 they timed the election for the day,
00:22:22.420 before the capital gains changes took effect in a riding with a large small business population,
00:22:28.720 a lot of small business owners in there.
00:22:31.020 This one,
00:22:32.340 I don't know who was smoking what,
00:22:35.920 or,
00:22:36.400 you know, 1.00
00:22:37.440 how dumb they are. 1.00
00:22:38.380 They, 1.00
00:22:38.720 they,
00:22:38.900 they scheduled the by-election for the first day back when you could lose.
00:22:44.860 Um,
00:22:45.300 you know,
00:22:45.580 the,
00:22:45.740 the liberals were never going to win Winnipeg and Elmwood Transcona.
00:22:49.620 And we'll get to that by-election soon,
00:22:51.020 but they knew that,
00:22:53.000 you know,
00:22:53.300 they're up against tough odds in the Sally Mardford done.
00:22:57.180 And they could have chosen a different date.
00:22:59.420 They could have chosen the week before instead,
00:23:02.080 you know,
00:23:02.780 Hey,
00:23:03.160 you just lost on your first day back in parliament.
00:23:05.760 As someone who's been on campaigns,
00:23:07.920 what was your reaction to that?
00:23:10.160 I thought it was weird too.
00:23:11.900 I couldn't understand.
00:23:13.260 I,
00:23:13.360 I don't,
00:23:14.260 you know,
00:23:14.420 you have six months,
00:23:15.600 right?
00:23:16.000 So you have six months to call by-election from the date of resignation.
00:23:19.660 So you,
00:23:20.640 you have time to play with and yeah,
00:23:22.260 picking that first day back,
00:23:23.780 unless you think it's a slam dunk and you're going to win,
00:23:26.540 right?
00:23:26.900 Maybe that's what they thought.
00:23:27.840 Oh,
00:23:28.060 it's a ride.
00:23:28.640 It's a safe seat.
00:23:29.500 And we'll start with a bang.
00:23:31.600 Sure.
00:23:31.840 We're nowhere in Elmwood Transcona.
00:23:33.960 And what,
00:23:34.280 maybe the Tories will take that and they'll be all happy,
00:23:36.700 but Hey,
00:23:37.040 we'll get this one.
00:23:37.820 Um,
00:23:39.520 I,
00:23:40.000 I don't know,
00:23:40.740 Brian.
00:23:41.160 Honestly,
00:23:41.600 I think that the liberals,
00:23:43.140 one of their problems is that they,
00:23:45.460 they are not,
00:23:46.720 they're kind of,
00:23:47.300 they're kind of lost.
00:23:48.180 They don't seem to be focusing.
00:23:51.480 Um,
00:23:51.720 even the prime minister saying things like,
00:23:53.460 Oh,
00:23:53.540 we got to have reflection.
00:23:54.640 And,
00:23:55.140 um,
00:23:55.660 you know,
00:23:55.900 basically,
00:23:56.540 basically blaming Canadians saying we,
00:23:58.600 people got to understand what's at stake in these things.
00:24:01.240 We have to make them understand.
00:24:03.300 No,
00:24:04.000 it's not,
00:24:05.320 they're not the deplorables who don't understand,
00:24:07.140 like,
00:24:07.520 you know,
00:24:07.620 the whole thing Hillary Clinton did. 0.95
00:24:09.480 It's the same kind of arrogant attitude.
00:24:11.280 They just think they can do whatever.
00:24:12.560 I think that's really it.
00:24:13.480 It's like,
00:24:14.100 Oh,
00:24:14.440 well,
00:24:14.720 you know,
00:24:15.280 yeah,
00:24:15.520 we'll probably,
00:24:16.000 we'll probably win.
00:24:16.680 So let's do that on the first day of parliament.
00:24:18.160 If they even thought that far,
00:24:20.080 but they,
00:24:21.400 they take,
00:24:21.860 they take things for granted.
00:24:23.120 It's my point.
00:24:23.680 I think they're taking a lot for granted and that is why,
00:24:27.580 why they're in the position they're in today.
00:24:29.520 Uh,
00:24:30.080 just,
00:24:30.800 uh,
00:24:31.160 a quick note.
00:24:32.180 Ontario is having a by-election on September 19th and the,
00:24:35.640 uh,
00:24:36.480 Doug Ford's PC party picked that date specifically to try and kind of rain on the parade of Bonnie
00:24:43.480 Crombie's Ontario liberals.
00:24:44.640 Cause they start their provincial annual general meeting the next day.
00:24:48.540 Ford could lose that by-election. 0.98
00:24:50.600 So it's not just the Trudeau liberals that make dumb moves like this. 0.94
00:24:54.440 We need to take a break, 0.97
00:24:55.260 but when we come back,
00:24:56.060 we'll talk about the PM's reaction to the by-elections.
00:24:58.240 We'll talk about Winnipeg and Elmwood Transcona,
00:25:00.940 blue orange switchers and,
00:25:02.500 and what the next few months look like in Canadian politics.
00:25:06.260 More in moments.
00:25:07.580 What do you think went wrong?
00:25:08.600 Oh,
00:25:08.760 I think there's,
00:25:09.420 uh,
00:25:09.640 there's all sorts of reflections to take on that.
00:25:11.780 But,
00:25:12.260 uh,
00:25:12.540 the big thing is to make sure the Canadians understand that the choice they get to make in the next election
00:25:17.820 about the kind of country we are.
00:25:19.340 um,
00:25:20.000 really matters.
00:25:20.780 And that's the work we're going to continue to do.
00:25:23.560 How's prime minister,
00:25:24.660 Justin Trudeau reacting on the day after the by-elections.
00:25:28.760 And Stuart,
00:25:29.960 uh,
00:25:30.320 I don't know what your reaction was when you first heard that,
00:25:32.440 but I thought,
00:25:33.060 Oh,
00:25:33.900 good.
00:25:34.200 Justin Trudeau's reaction to losing in two by-elections is that he needs to speak longer and louder at Canadians about why he's so great.
00:25:41.920 My,
00:25:42.140 I will admit that I'm a national post editor.
00:25:44.680 So my first reaction to that clip was,
00:25:46.980 this is going to be great.
00:25:47.980 When we put this in a headline,
00:25:49.600 um,
00:25:50.860 but when you take it on face value,
00:25:53.520 um,
00:25:54.220 I do think that it really,
00:25:55.820 it,
00:25:56.400 I,
00:25:57.200 like,
00:25:57.340 I used to wonder if maybe this,
00:25:58.640 there was a certain amount of delusion earlier in the year.
00:26:01.080 So you've got the feeling that the liberals just didn't understand what was going on.
00:26:05.940 They didn't quite take it seriously.
00:26:07.840 And they always had this idea that,
00:26:09.460 you know,
00:26:10.160 at some point Canadians will understand that peer poly is scary.
00:26:13.640 Like we think,
00:26:14.420 and then all of a sudden we'll be winning again.
00:26:17.040 Um,
00:26:17.400 that's starting to dissipate.
00:26:18.700 Actually,
00:26:19.040 you know,
00:26:19.200 you go to their caucus meetings and it's not that vibe as much anymore.
00:26:23.000 It's more of a kind of stunned silence.
00:26:25.780 Like they just don't know what to do.
00:26:28.100 Um,
00:26:28.960 they wish they could do something and they kind of know things are going wrong and they,
00:26:32.140 they kind of know the message isn't resonating.
00:26:34.240 Um,
00:26:34.640 but they just don't know what to do.
00:26:35.880 They don't feel like they can get Trudeau to step aside.
00:26:38.400 They don't feel like they have someone to replace them if that does happen.
00:26:42.100 And I think what you hear from Trudeau is that he's still in the first phase.
00:26:45.980 He's in the,
00:26:46.740 I just need to be better at this.
00:26:48.820 And all of a sudden the polls will change.
00:26:51.340 It's funny that you,
00:26:52.320 you describe that as one day soon,
00:26:54.260 they'll realize how bad the conservatives are.
00:26:56.980 Uh,
00:26:58.000 after the 2005,
00:27:00.020 2006 election,
00:27:00.960 when Stephen Harper got in the arrogance coming out of the liberal caucus after being
00:27:06.720 defeated was unreal.
00:27:09.140 I think it took them maybe,
00:27:11.760 maybe until Harper won a majority and Ignatiev took the liberals down to third place,
00:27:16.460 but definitely the first,
00:27:17.720 the first minority and at least part of Dion's you would talk to liberals and they would just
00:27:23.160 say,
00:27:23.680 Oh,
00:27:24.060 don't worry soon.
00:27:24.840 We'll be back in power.
00:27:26.060 Do you remember that?
00:27:26.980 That attitude coming from liberals back then to Tasha?
00:27:30.080 Yeah,
00:27:30.420 I do.
00:27:30.980 I think that is exactly that.
00:27:33.960 Arrogance is exactly like I said,
00:27:35.420 why they're in the situation they're in,
00:27:36.980 because it's almost as a disbelief that we are.
00:27:39.780 Why wouldn't you want us to be running your country?
00:27:41.560 We know best.
00:27:42.240 And it,
00:27:43.240 it,
00:27:43.860 it,
00:27:43.880 it affects them less.
00:27:45.840 I think when the opposition,
00:27:48.460 um,
00:27:49.720 isn't appealing to,
00:27:52.180 you know,
00:27:53.180 common people versus elites,
00:27:54.600 like the conservatives are,
00:27:55.780 the conservatives have decided to create this dynamic.
00:27:58.060 They've gone full populist and it's all about the common people versus those elite ivory tower,
00:28:04.500 uh,
00:28:04.760 Laurentian elitists,
00:28:05.980 uh,
00:28:06.560 you know,
00:28:07.020 that that's what the liberals are.
00:28:08.880 And Trudeau is very emblematic of that because he grew up the son of a prime minister at 24 Sussex Drive.
00:28:13.440 So,
00:28:13.980 you know,
00:28:14.340 he,
00:28:14.620 he,
00:28:14.960 he was a,
00:28:15.400 he had an elite life.
00:28:16.420 There's no question.
00:28:17.200 He's not the common people.
00:28:18.920 So,
00:28:19.260 that juxtaposition makes it even worse because now it,
00:28:22.780 you know,
00:28:22.920 they can just keep playing it.
00:28:24.160 And he falls into that trap all the time.
00:28:26.120 He doesn't think it's a thing.
00:28:27.360 I think he really does think he knows better.
00:28:29.320 He really does think,
00:28:30.760 you know,
00:28:31.040 people,
00:28:31.380 fans of big government,
00:28:32.700 socialists,
00:28:33.260 they think we know better if only people listen to the experts and the elites.
00:28:37.720 And,
00:28:38.120 you know,
00:28:38.960 you should listen to experts,
00:28:40.140 but they're not better human beings than the rest of us.
00:28:42.720 And it's that attitude of,
00:28:44.640 just nice little people pat you on the head.
00:28:46.800 You should just listen to me more.
00:28:48.920 No,
00:28:49.400 the people are telling him loud and clear.
00:28:51.340 We know what the issue is.
00:28:52.940 It's you,
00:28:54.180 you know,
00:28:54.460 me,
00:28:54.860 hi,
00:28:55.320 I'm the problem.
00:28:56.060 It's me.
00:28:56.540 Like he should take a cute Taylor Swift and just walk away.
00:29:01.340 But he's not because his,
00:29:02.920 his,
00:29:03.420 his frame doesn't allow that.
00:29:05.780 And that's their problem.
00:29:07.040 You know,
00:29:07.680 it's,
00:29:08.080 it's kind of the reverse of what part of the problem was with the conservatives in
00:29:11.720 2019 and 2021.
00:29:13.880 They acted like everyone hated Justin Trudeau as much as they did.
00:29:17.220 And the public wasn't there.
00:29:21.560 And now I don't think the conservatives are running a campaign that is focused on.
00:29:27.820 Everyone's got to hate Justin Trudeau.
00:29:29.240 Like we do.
00:29:30.180 They're running a campaign that says,
00:29:32.340 Hey,
00:29:33.260 there's problems out there.
00:29:34.880 We hear you.
00:29:35.800 Here's our solution.
00:29:36.600 I know the liberals want to say,
00:29:37.900 you know,
00:29:38.100 they're offering nothing,
00:29:38.940 but to me,
00:29:39.840 it's a campaign of times are tough.
00:29:43.160 Here's what we'll do for you.
00:29:44.580 Stuart.
00:29:45.640 Yeah,
00:29:45.880 I think that's exactly right.
00:29:47.720 And I think the,
00:29:48.900 the thing that Polyev did do was he took a couple of issues that were really on
00:29:53.320 people's minds and he got there early.
00:29:55.180 And the housing one,
00:29:56.720 I think is a great example of how badly the liberals had to play catch up on that.
00:30:01.040 Because,
00:30:02.020 you know,
00:30:02.360 I think this is,
00:30:03.840 you know,
00:30:04.000 as you guys said,
00:30:04.580 it's a liberal problem.
00:30:05.960 The,
00:30:06.820 you could call it arrogance,
00:30:08.160 but there's also the complacency of being in government where you really are just trying to get to the end of the day.
00:30:13.560 Like there's fires everywhere.
00:30:15.500 You're trying to put them all out.
00:30:16.820 The kind of big thinking that you can do in opposition is just almost impossible.
00:30:21.600 And I think every government in the history of the Westminster system has had this problem where they try to create these different ways of getting big ideas into the government,
00:30:31.260 a stale government.
00:30:32.320 And that's really tough.
00:30:33.720 So Polyev came with this fresh energy and a new kind of idea of what Canadians cared about and how to solve it.
00:30:40.100 And I think that's what's propelled him.
00:30:41.660 But the liberals are still stuck looking at the guy that they see across the house of commons that they really hate because Polyev is,
00:30:50.820 he's a really good troll in the house of commons and he has been since he was about 25 years old.
00:30:55.300 So there is this like partisan alternate reality where they're in there getting mad about comments during QP or like documents that were tabled,
00:31:04.560 things that Canadians will never hear about.
00:31:06.240 And it's as you go year by year in government, it gets harder and harder to break out of that alternate reality.
00:31:12.940 And it's partly what the liberals are in right now.
00:31:14.800 What's the saying?
00:31:15.620 Every day in government, you put another pebble in your backpack and it gets heavier every day.
00:31:21.240 After nine years, that's a pretty heavy backpack.
00:31:24.480 So there was a bit of kerfuffle in the house over the conservatives giving nicknames to people.
00:31:33.020 Carbon tax carny or after the news out of The Logic about Brookfield Asset Management trying to set up a massive pension fund with $10 billion from taxpayers.
00:31:44.860 I think you could call them cash in carny as well as carbon tax carny.
00:31:49.260 But so they use that.
00:31:51.000 The conservatives also referred to Chrystia Freeland as the phantom finance minister.
00:31:56.860 And liberals got their noses out of joint.
00:31:58.300 And Karina Gold was standing up and, you know, clutching her pearls and saying, you know, I can't believe they're talking like this.
00:32:05.760 She called Polyev a fraudster.
00:32:09.520 Chrystia Freeland referred to conservatives as small and weak. 0.91
00:32:14.260 And yep.
00:32:16.340 And that was this week, not just a few weeks ago.
00:32:20.580 So, I mean, they're using these terms. 0.99
00:32:22.640 And it really does seem to be a how dare you call me names, you bastard. 0.96
00:32:28.920 Well, I think it's more their names aren't as good. 0.99
00:32:31.620 They're not as creative.
00:32:32.720 The conservatives come up with these creative, smarmy things.
00:32:35.820 And the liberals, they use words like, oh, they're mean and this and that.
00:32:39.820 But they don't they don't go full bore and, you know, create little acronyms for people or specific tags.
00:32:49.700 And so they're they come from I mean, I will say this.
00:32:54.040 I do find some of the conservative stuff incredibly hokey.
00:32:57.080 I find it a lot of it very obnoxious.
00:33:00.020 I find it, you know, it's for fundraising.
00:33:01.720 It's like it's it's all these sorts of stuff.
00:33:04.120 But it it's it's a style that they use and it works for them.
00:33:10.680 And it works in other places like the United States, too.
00:33:13.380 It does work.
00:33:14.080 Look, it's it's it's it's a way of doing politics and a way of speaking.
00:33:18.880 And the liberals don't like it.
00:33:20.300 They don't like it because they don't do it.
00:33:22.920 They can be just as obnoxious in their own way, but they don't do that.
00:33:26.820 They don't say they think that is sinking to a different level.
00:33:29.680 And I do think that some of the stuff we see on social media and some of the stuff from the conservatives is it can be very vicious from their proxies, extremely vicious.
00:33:39.100 And that does take the level of political discourse down to a place that is not healthy.
00:33:43.520 But the liberals, the reason that they're doing that is because the liberals have made that, you know, have made things kind of toxic, have wrecked the housing market, have let too many people into the country who now can't find a place to live.
00:33:56.400 Like their policy decisions, on which they pride themselves, have created the mess we're in.
00:34:01.980 So it gives an opening to a conservatives to make up all this funny stuff and go, ha, see, like with Carney and Freeland.
00:34:07.720 I mean, if you make Freeland suddenly second banana to Carney, what do you expect?
00:34:12.120 Like, sure, she's the phantom.
00:34:13.700 Where is she?
00:34:14.360 Phantom finance minister.
00:34:15.480 It's kind of funny, right?
00:34:17.140 What do you know?
00:34:17.820 So they shoot themselves in the foot again.
00:34:19.780 And the conservatives just they go there.
00:34:22.540 In terms of policy, the liberals have been trying to say we've got good news.
00:34:30.380 Inflation's down to 2 percent.
00:34:32.280 We've got good news.
00:34:33.440 The OECD has a new report that says how great our economy is or we're the best at this in the G7.
00:34:41.720 And I keep listening to this and I've talked to liberals about it as well who are frustrated who say the party at the top is tone deaf.
00:34:51.460 Sure, you can say that inflation's down to 2 percent now, but groceries are 25 percent more than they were two and a half years ago.
00:34:58.860 You can say the economy is doing great, but unemployment just went up to 6.6 percent.
00:35:03.640 I can't afford a home anymore.
00:35:05.160 They seem to be, you know, you mentioned experts earlier, Tasha, but they seem to be pointing to reports.
00:35:11.720 And I think, well, that's great, but I can't eat an OECD report.
00:35:15.240 Um, nobody can eat an OECD report.
00:35:18.880 You can, maybe you can, you know, print it off, water it down.
00:35:23.180 It would be horrible.
00:35:24.140 But, you know, people worried about the day to day parts of their lives aren't wondering, oh, you know, look, my life sucks right now.
00:35:32.440 The economy isn't as good as it was.
00:35:34.000 Everything's more expensive.
00:35:34.900 But what does the OECD think of Canada?
00:35:38.460 Stuart, are they just not connected anymore?
00:35:41.400 I mean, it can happen to any government.
00:35:43.320 You lose connections with people.
00:35:45.200 Have they lost the connection with the average Canadian?
00:35:48.200 Yeah, this is kind of, you can understand how this happened with this liberal government, because when they first came to power, it was, you know, they were on the cover of Vogue and all those magazines.
00:35:58.240 And they were swanning around, Justin Trudeau was swanning around the world, getting big receptions everywhere.
00:36:02.760 And that was actually working in their favor with Canadians.
00:36:05.400 Canadians were saying, this is actually kind of cool.
00:36:08.720 People seem to like this guy.
00:36:10.620 Remember, you could buy a cardboard cutout of Trudeau on Amazon.
00:36:14.820 Yeah, it was real.
00:36:16.460 Well, and you mentioned the Conservatives had trouble with this early on, that they hated Trudeau more than Canadians did.
00:36:24.200 And that takes a while for Canadians to get where Conservatives are, but they're pretty much there now.
00:36:30.380 And the problem for this government is that they lived in a different world.
00:36:33.800 The things that used to work for them, I think, are uniquely bad to be deploying in this moment, where people are just tired, they're fed up.
00:36:41.740 It's post-pandemic, interest rates are high, everything's expensive.
00:36:45.200 And they just don't want to see this kind of stuff because it seems unserious.
00:36:49.460 And I think they are kind of in a rut that, you know, unfair to them because it did work so well before.
00:36:56.000 But you kind of have to develop a new strategy.
00:36:59.100 Let me ask you about their housing policy.
00:37:00.800 Stuart, you mentioned earlier housing's one that Pierre Polyev jumped on right away.
00:37:04.900 And he's been pushing this idea, we'll sell off 15% of government buildings.
00:37:11.580 I think it's 6,000 government buildings.
00:37:14.700 And trust me, there are plenty of surplus buildings.
00:37:16.960 So that could easily happen.
00:37:18.320 And he wants it transformed into housing.
00:37:20.460 You either knock the place down and build housing or you're, you know, retrofit it and put in housing.
00:37:26.100 He's also said he'll sell off a lot of federal land.
00:37:29.320 The Liberals have campaigned on this before.
00:37:31.320 It was in their platform in 2015, 2019, 2021.
00:37:34.880 Now they're mocking it.
00:37:36.880 And Justin Trudeau, in response, this should not be a partisan issue.
00:37:42.940 We should all be trying to make housing more affordable for people to buy.
00:37:45.820 But he is trying to make it partisan.
00:37:47.840 And he came out and he kind of stole Polyev's idea and says, yes, we'll use federal land for housing. 0.67
00:37:53.340 But we won't sell the land like those awful conservatives.
00:37:56.780 We'll lease it to you.
00:37:59.200 And when I saw that, I thought, man, he really wants everyone to believe that the liberal policy is you'll own nothing and be happy.
00:38:09.600 That was funny.
00:38:10.640 You're feeding into this.
00:38:12.220 You know, you're just going to be a tenant to the government for your whole life.
00:38:16.040 I don't think that's the Canadian dream.
00:38:17.960 So is that an effective political messaging, Tasha?
00:38:22.120 Yeah, I share that.
00:38:24.780 I think it's also he wants to be your landlord.
00:38:27.060 Oh, great. 0.99
00:38:28.260 I think both their policies are ridiculous. 0.99
00:38:30.420 I'll be honest. 0.95
00:38:31.080 I think that you can't retrofit every single building.
00:38:33.640 It's nice to say let's retrofit the CBC.
00:38:35.880 Have you been to the CBC?
00:38:36.960 What do you have in downtown Toronto?
00:38:38.820 You know how much it would cost to retrofit that into housing?
00:38:41.420 It would cost probably more than knocking it down and building on land that is extremely expensive.
00:38:45.780 I think that the whole idea, you know, what are you going to put people out in Tunney's pasture outside of Ottawa and build, you know, on the farmlands there like that they have, the experimental farms, whatever, buildings that aren't used.
00:38:58.240 I think it's silly. 0.87
00:38:59.460 I really think it's silly.
00:39:00.740 I think that Canada Land Company exists and they do this already.
00:39:04.280 They're redeveloping CFP Rockcliffe.
00:39:06.680 To say that that's the solution is not.
00:39:10.180 What's the solution is reducing demand and incentivizing supply, the private people who are going to build it.
00:39:17.020 I mean, PolyEv's is marginally more realistic in that it's selling, but there has to be a market for that.
00:39:22.900 And until interest rates are lower, there ain't a market because developers are abandoning projects as they are.
00:39:28.580 They can't, you know, people are walking away from condos.
00:39:30.800 They can't sell them in Toronto.
00:39:32.540 Prices are dropped.
00:39:33.400 That's the biggest market right there next to Vancouver.
00:39:35.980 And people aren't building.
00:39:37.920 Developers are pausing things because they can't afford the cost.
00:39:42.780 As interest rates come down, the market will come back.
00:39:45.260 And if you reduce demand by curbing immigration, quite frankly, that's a piece that the liberals really mucked up.
00:39:51.360 They let too many people in post-COVID to make up for the fact that during COVID we had very little people coming in.
00:39:58.900 But they did it in such a way, assuming that the economy would ramp up and there would be, you know, jobs for every...
00:40:04.720 There aren't.
00:40:05.320 So, you know, I think the housing is going to take a while to fix.
00:40:09.560 It's not going to be overnight for anybody.
00:40:10.940 And everyone's promising a quick fix.
00:40:12.580 It's not going to happen.
00:40:14.300 Stuart, my ears perked up when I first heard Polly Ev say he'll cap immigration and tie it to housing.
00:40:19.880 And I thought, well, one, finally somebody's saying something that makes sense.
00:40:24.100 But two, I think that'll be politically popular.
00:40:27.720 You can go to areas of Mississauga and Brampton where everybody is an immigrant and you raise this issue and they'll say, yeah, there's too many people coming in. 1.00
00:40:36.400 This is a universal view now because we've all seen what's happened to the housing supply, the health care crisis, jobs.
00:40:45.280 Stats Canada has been screaming at the government for 13, 14 months that you're bringing in people faster than we can create jobs.
00:40:54.020 So when I heard Polly Ev say, well, cap immigration, we'll come up with a formula, tie it to housing. 1.00
00:40:58.640 I thought that should work both for votes and in dealing with the supply issue.
00:41:03.000 Yeah, I think there's two sides to this.
00:41:06.400 One is that I think probably given the state of affairs, it was necessary and we just had to get there.
00:41:11.320 And if you look at the polling numbers on how people feel about immigration, it's getting bad.
00:41:17.280 People are not happy about the immigration system right now.
00:41:20.220 The government has realized this.
00:41:21.860 And if you have gotten liberals to realize that they have to tamp down immigration, that means things have gotten really bad.
00:41:27.760 And I was thinking the other day that this might actually be the lasting legacy of this government.
00:41:33.640 When we look back on that decade, we had a pretty good Canada-wide consensus on immigration.
00:41:41.060 It went through the Chrétien years to the Martin years to the Harper years, where population growth was about the same every year.
00:41:48.100 The number got a little higher, but not by much.
00:41:51.280 And never did immigration become an issue in a political campaign.
00:41:55.360 And I think that Pure Polly Ed will be responsible about it. 1.00
00:41:59.460 I think that's why he's tying it to housing and health care and all these things.
00:42:02.780 But we all know, we've all seen the politics in Europe.
00:42:06.060 This can go to an irresponsible and a dark place if it gets mishandled.
00:42:10.800 And I know if you talk to Justin Trudeau in 2015, the idea that that would become his legacy, I think, would be almost unbelievable to him.
00:42:19.440 But this is the kind of thing we were talking about, governmental complacency, where things are just ticking along.
00:42:24.460 You're making kind of glib decisions without really looking too far ahead.
00:42:29.360 And if the immigration debate goes sideways, it's because of that.
00:42:33.880 They just turned on the taps too much.
00:42:36.220 All right.
00:42:36.380 We haven't really talked about the Elmwood-Transcona by-election.
00:42:39.660 We have to so that executive producer Kevin Libin doesn't get mad at all of us.
00:42:43.360 Well, specifically at me.
00:42:45.040 But let's talk about it in this context.
00:42:48.200 We have this writing that has now been won 11 out of the last 12 times by the NDP.
00:42:55.480 The only time it didn't go NDP, I believe, was 2011 to 2015.
00:42:59.720 The Conservatives held it.
00:43:01.640 They came close to taking it.
00:43:04.560 Carl Belanger, former advisor to Jack Layton and Tom Mulcair, and I know you know Carl well, Tasha, he said straight up, Jagmeet Sane ripped up the agreement because they were hearing at the doors in Winnipeg how angry people were.
00:43:21.180 They had to get out of the deal before the by-election to save the furniture, and it was still 48% NDP, 44% conservative.
00:43:30.780 I think we're going to see more blue-orange switcher ridings across the country in the next election.
00:43:38.540 And while it seems like a bit of bravado for Jagmeet Sane to say, oh, the next election's between me and Pierre Polyev, in some areas it will be.
00:43:48.820 And for areas where they have a Liberal MP and they're looking for an alternative, that'll be the battle.
00:43:54.780 So what are your thoughts on, one, the by-election, and two, a battle between Sane and Polyev?
00:44:01.100 So this wasn't.
00:44:02.100 This is the thing.
00:44:02.860 If you look at the numbers, the NDP vote held, they dropped 1.6% from their last percentage.
00:44:08.260 They did not lose their vote.
00:44:10.060 The Liberals dropped.
00:44:11.420 But the Liberals collapsed.
00:44:12.940 The Liberals collapsed.
00:44:14.000 Yes, the Liberals collapsed by 10%.
00:44:16.340 The People's Party had almost 6% of the last election.
00:44:20.400 They collapsed by 5%.
00:44:21.940 You add that up, and that's what the Conservatives got.
00:44:24.440 They got 15% more than they did the last time.
00:44:27.180 And those votes were not NDP votes.
00:44:29.200 I agree with you.
00:44:29.920 They were appealing to the NDP.
00:44:31.620 But I think the NDP vote held for particular factors there, too, including Wab Canoe, who's a very popular NDP Premier in Manitoba.
00:44:39.160 So that's not going to replicate itself elsewhere.
00:44:41.120 I do agree with you, however, that the NDP and the Conservatives are going after the same voter because the NDP has abandoned that voter.
00:44:49.760 They're both going after the Union blue-collar voter.
00:44:52.520 The NDP has veered off into the progressive fantasy world on so many issues and too far to the left and not the priorities that those voters have.
00:45:01.720 A lot of very woke issues, also on the Israel-Palestine or Israel-Hamas conflict.
00:45:07.120 So you have situations where the NDP is talking about stuff.
00:45:09.840 The average working person is like, that's not my problem.
00:45:13.540 Why are you talking?
00:45:14.380 Those are the votes Paul Yev can get.
00:45:16.340 That is where I think he can make gains.
00:45:18.360 But I don't think this rioting actually ended up being that.
00:45:21.360 As someone that grew up in a home with an NDP sign on the front lawn and a dad who was in a private sector blue-collar trade union, I can tell you there's a lot of those guys available.
00:45:32.340 And that is the battle because the NDP has abandoned the Union Hall for the faculty club.
00:45:38.680 And I think that's an issue.
00:45:39.960 So, Stuart, as you look to what Doug Ford did in Ontario, winning in places like Hamilton, Windsor, Timmons, Pierre Polyev's trying to run the same playbook in this election, whether it's in Ontario or in British Columbia, to try and peel away some of those votes.
00:46:00.500 Yeah.
00:46:00.780 Yeah, I think it's really interesting.
00:46:02.020 And the little bit of reporting I've done on this, I'm pretty confident that this is a real thing to Pierre Polyev.
00:46:09.340 Like, this isn't something they're dabbling in and they're going to do a Labor Day speech and that's about it.
00:46:13.800 They are very committed to this and they're going to take some hard votes in the House of Commons to do this.
00:46:19.940 And, you know, there is a faction of free market conservatives who, if you say we're going to ban replacement workers at federally regulated workplaces, they're going to say, why are we doing this?
00:46:29.420 We're a conservative party.
00:46:30.520 We're supposed to be the party of the market.
00:46:31.780 And I know that will exist.
00:46:34.320 But as Doug Ford has shown, the sort of ideological, philosophical free market conservative, they exist in the newspaper columns, but they aren't a huge faction of voters out there.
00:46:45.180 And I think that Polyev has realized this.
00:46:47.940 They sent, we did a story last week about Polyev's, he actually wrote us a comment personally saying, here's how I evolved my opinion from a sort of libertarian free market guy to someone who now believes that, you know, unions are great.
00:47:03.320 It's interesting.
00:47:04.380 They sent that story around to all of their people and said, this is what we believe now.
00:47:08.460 Get used to it.
00:47:09.200 So I think there's something there.
00:47:11.400 I think Polyev is going to hold that line.
00:47:14.000 He may get some grumbling on the right, but I think, as you can see, it's not going to matter too much to him.
00:47:19.540 Well, it worked previously for Boris Johnson before he imploded for other reasons.
00:47:24.660 If you, I'm sure you both watch parts of the Republican National Convention in the States, they had the head of the Teamsters Union speak.
00:47:32.520 This is a movement in conservatism throughout the Western, at least English speaking world, isn't it, Tasha?
00:47:41.960 Well, sure, because union jobs have disappeared and the left behind class, as people are calling, you know, there's left behinds and the laptop class.
00:47:50.360 And the laptop class, especially during the pandemic, had it easy.
00:47:54.040 You know, we're part of that.
00:47:55.200 We work from home, right?
00:47:56.460 You can work from home.
00:47:57.760 You don't lose your job.
00:47:59.300 You work relatively safe.
00:48:01.460 People who are on the lines, manufacturing, people who were working in construction, working in difficult environments where they actually had to be around people.
00:48:10.320 They suffered because either they couldn't work, they weren't allowed, or they could get COVID if they were there.
00:48:15.280 So those folks had a much different experience for that span of time.
00:48:19.680 The convoy was the symbol of that.
00:48:21.660 Not every union person was a convoy activist.
00:48:24.720 But the convoy was kind of this litmus thing of, you know what, the working people, this government doesn't listen to working people.
00:48:32.120 That was the messaging.
00:48:33.460 Polyev seized on it.
00:48:35.120 He won on that issue.
00:48:37.380 He won the leadership with those folks, with the support of people across the country who sympathized.
00:48:42.520 And he's taken that, and he will run on that, because that is right now, there's this populist anger around the world of people who were hard done by globalization, hard done by the pandemic, who say, those elites in government don't listen to me.
00:48:57.240 And so he's going to be like, you know, I'm fighting for the people who don't, Trump says the same thing.
00:49:02.000 I'm fighting people who don't get listened to.
00:49:03.460 I'm not saying Polyev is like Trump.
00:49:04.800 They're very different politicians.
00:49:07.140 But like you said, Johnson, you see it in Europe as well with other governments.
00:49:12.700 They're speaking for that person.
00:49:14.320 And those people want champions, and he is their champion right now.
00:49:17.660 Well, we'll end on this, and I'll ask you, Stuart.
00:49:20.360 I would also argue that the NDP doesn't speak to those blue-collar trades workers because they are the party of no.
00:49:31.500 And we see this in Ontario.
00:49:32.640 Doug Ford says, okay, we'll build more housing.
00:49:35.360 That's going to employ these people. 0.96
00:49:36.480 No.
00:49:37.220 We'll build a new highway.
00:49:38.740 No.
00:49:39.740 Anything that these guys rely on for their jobs, the NDP and, to a degree, liberals, who identify as progressives rather than as liberals now, they say no.
00:49:50.780 And conservatives, you know, at the provincial or federal level are saying, yeah, we've got to build.
00:49:55.840 And if you build, these guys are employed.
00:49:57.740 So it's in their best interest, isn't it?
00:49:59.980 What they need is an old socialist running that party.
00:50:02.640 And I don't know if they exist anymore.
00:50:05.160 But you can see, I will tell you, at least somebody in that party is aware that this is going on because they've started to edge away from the carbon tax.
00:50:14.160 And, you know, Bernie Sanders, someone like that, would have said, we can't put the burden of fixing climate change on workers.
00:50:22.160 That's just not what we do.
00:50:24.240 But the sort of urban progressive that is dominant in the NDP right now says, this is what we have to do.
00:50:30.100 We all have to sacrifice for climate change.
00:50:32.700 It's a different mentality.
00:50:33.820 And you saw that debate playing out when the NDP did that.
00:50:36.480 There are two factions in that party.
00:50:39.480 And, you know, I think we know which one is probably going to win.
00:50:43.980 I think that the urban progressives are pretty dominant right now.
00:50:46.540 And Polyev has done a pretty good job of siphoning the working class away. 1.00
00:50:51.200 But I still think it is there for the NDP.
00:50:53.140 I think if they can change things before the next election, they could make it a real fight.
00:50:59.140 I'm not sure they will.
00:51:01.240 That's the next episode.
00:51:03.320 Stuart Thompson, editor, or sorry, Ottawa Bureau Chief for the National Post, Tasha Carradine, columnist.
00:51:08.560 And, of course, they both together produce Political Hack, the newsletter.
00:51:11.820 Make sure you sign up for that.
00:51:13.060 Thank you both for joining me today to talk about all of this.
00:51:17.140 Thanks, Brian.
00:51:18.560 Thank you.
00:51:19.300 Full Comment is a Post Media podcast.
00:51:21.320 My name is Brian Lilly, your host.
00:51:23.060 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.
00:51:24.900 Theme music by Bryce Hall.
00:51:26.440 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
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00:51:40.380 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.
00:51:51.320 Thank you.
00:52:00.560 Thanks for listening.