Full Comment - August 05, 2024


Trudeau gazes upon a wasteland of Liberal leadership


Episode Stats


Length

44 minutes

Words per minute

171.72668

Word count

7,719

Sentence count

657

Harmful content

Misogyny

29

sentences flagged

Toxicity

10

sentences flagged

Hate speech

13

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Who's going to replace Justin Trudeau if he decides to leave the Liberal Party? Warren Kinsella, former Liberal strategist and all-around good guy, joins me in studio here at Queen's Park to discuss.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Whether you own a bustling hair salon or a hot new bakery, you need business insurance that can
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00:00:11.800 for what you need. TD, ready for you. Is Justin Trudeau taking a walk in the sand? Is that his
00:00:24.140 version of the walk in the snow? He's been out in Tofino for the last little while and lots of
00:00:29.280 people still speculating about his future. Hello, I'm Brian Lilly. This is the Full Comment
00:00:34.320 Podcast. And today we're going to talk about the future of the Liberal Party, the future of Justin
00:00:39.380 Trudeau, but more so in terms of who's going to replace him. Now, interestingly, while he was on
00:00:45.540 vacation in Tofino and was ambushed on the beach by independent Calgary-based journalist, Kian Bextie,
00:00:51.340 he was asked if he was looking for a replacement for himself.
00:00:55.620 Are you concerned at all about your poll numbers? No. I am not. What causes you to not be concerned?
00:01:01.280 Because I spend a lot of time talking with Canadians. A lot of time, you know, focusing 1.00
00:01:06.140 on the things that we're doing to actually deliver for people.
00:01:09.160 So there you have it. Trudeau saying he's not going anywhere. Of course, that's what he has to say.
00:01:13.980 But I believe him. Our guest this week on the Full Comment Podcast is not. And we have been
00:01:19.140 debating the issue of whether Justin Trudeau is going to stay or go now, to reference The Clash,
00:01:25.240 for months now. Warren Kinsella, Toronto Sun columnist, former Liberal strategist and all-around
00:01:31.160 good guy joining me in studio here at Queen's Park. Hello, Warren.
00:01:34.480 Hello, sir.
00:01:34.980 So you saw the clips from that interview that Trudeau gave. First off, I actually think he
00:01:43.260 looked good. He looked sympathetic. And I'm not someone overly sympathetic to the PM. But
00:01:48.960 he did kind of look sympathetic in that interview because he's on the beach with his 10-year-old
00:01:52.740 son splashing in the water and he gets ambushed. But he said very clearly, one, he's not going
00:01:59.060 anywhere. And two, he's not worried about the polls.
00:02:03.680 Yeah. And it's like you said, you can't even give a hint, a scintilla of a hint, a sliver
00:02:09.680 of a hint that you're going anywhere. You know, you've got to say you're staying until the very
00:02:16.500 last moment. And you pick up the phone and you call Katie Telford and maybe two other people
00:02:21.320 and say, book the press theater. We're going to take a walk down Wellington. I'm leaving.
00:02:25.840 And that's how it happens. And, you know, look at Biden.
00:02:29.840 Unless you're Joe Biden, in which case Barack Obama threatened you with Section 25 of the
00:02:34.340 U.S. Constitution and you endorse Kamala Harris on the way out the door to piss him off. 1.00
00:02:40.300 I think. But it was, you know, the polls, the really was apparently, according to the American
00:02:45.700 media, was the determining factor with Biden. I think he will be with Trudeau too.
00:02:49.400 But he did it in the last second. Only a couple of people knew until he was ready to announce.
00:02:53.600 Right. We've seen that with other leaders. So let's talk about if and when he does that.
00:02:59.720 Who replaces him? And our colleagues at National Post, Parliamentary Bureau, they put together
00:03:04.780 an interesting little rundown of who this, you know, who it could be, what their strengths
00:03:10.900 and weaknesses are. And you and I are just going to go through it and do what we do. And
00:03:15.560 that's Kibitz. So Mark Carney, the banker, I think Mark Carney is Pierre Polyev's dream
00:03:24.680 candidate replacement. Like if Trudeau leaves, that actually messes up the conservatives plan
00:03:30.820 for the next election campaign against Trudeau. Not well liked. But if he does go, someone like
00:03:39.220 Mark Carney is a lot more attractive to the conservatives than some of the others because
00:03:44.080 Goldman Sachs banker, central banker in Canada and England, there's a lot to go on there.
00:03:52.660 This would be, he didn't come back for you 2.0, wouldn't it?
00:03:56.620 I firstly, hats off to our colleagues at the National Post. They have actually put more thought
00:04:02.280 into this than the Liberal Party has. Because for the first time in its history, or certainly
00:04:09.560 since I can remember, this is the first time the Liberal Party has not had an obvious successor
00:04:15.140 in the wings, right? Somebody waiting. For Turner, it was Kretzian. For Kretzian, it was Martin.
00:04:21.280 Well, they didn't really after Paul Martin because they were in disarray and they expected they
00:04:26.180 would win under Martin. But, you know, had Martin won, he would have groomed somebody to be
00:04:31.320 a successor. Trudeau hasn't done that. No. And, you know, that's revealed in what the Post has done
00:04:36.540 here. The names that they put forward, I would say that probably half of these names that we're
00:04:42.820 going to talk about, you could put them in a police lineup and the public couldn't figure out who's who.
00:04:48.380 Like, they really have not shone. They have not, like when Mulroney left, he had all these rock stars
00:04:54.760 behind him and Kretzian, people you knew, people you still think about. And Trudeau hasn't had that
00:05:00.960 because his party has become the Trudeau party. It's become a cult of personality and he's not
00:05:06.760 cultivated a successor or a successor or two or three. And so, you know, the Liberal Party is
00:05:13.180 scrambling, not just because of their terrible position in the polls, but because they don't
00:05:17.560 know where to turn. They don't know what story to tell. And you can see that with Carney. It's like,
00:05:23.180 okay, well, you know, he looks good in a suit and he's from the outside and he runs something
00:05:28.480 important in Britain. So maybe we get him. But I think he would be a disaster as you and I have
00:05:35.140 talked about before, because he's Michael Ignatieff with a pocket calculator. Like he is incapable of
00:05:42.160 talking like a normal, regular person, which is part of the job. And, you know, he's got the
00:05:47.440 Ignatieff problem. As you know, during a very brief, blessedly short period, I advised Michael Ignatieff.
00:05:54.620 And I remember saying to him, the Tories are coming after you with a $4 million ad campaign.
00:05:59.780 And he's like, what is it going to say? And I said, they're going to say, you're just visiting
00:06:03.100 Canada. He said, that's preposterous. Nobody cares about that. And I said to him, Mr. Ignatieff,
00:06:09.640 you've lived outside of Canada for decades. How can you say you care about the country? How can you
00:06:15.420 say you love the country when you've lived outside of the country for such a long time? And Carney has got
00:06:21.400 a bit of the same problem. But compared to him, Ignatieff is practically a, you know, a regular
00:06:27.820 guy. Like Carney, I think he's one of those people, if he has a choice between a $30 word and a $3
00:06:34.120 word, he's always going to use the $30 word. Doesn't work. I was at an event with a bunch of
00:06:38.720 politicos, mostly liberals, a little while ago. And we were talking about that photo of Carney
00:06:43.460 holding a beer awkwardly while wearing his, uh, Oilers jersey. And this old time liberal said,
00:06:50.000 uh, he's, um, uh, he's Chardonnay, not beer.
00:06:55.920 Yeah. And how did Harper win in 2004? I wrote, um, for the national post at the time, I finally
00:07:02.900 light went off my head. What are they doing? What is the Harper campaign? Harper was Tim Hortons.
00:07:08.440 Liberals were Starbucks, right? Yeah. And it's just, there's more people going to Tim Hortons.
00:07:13.040 So it's the same thing here. Do you really want to repeat the mistake liberal party that you made
00:07:18.740 with Mike Liknative? And it looks like some of them are prepared to do that. You, before we move on to
00:07:24.240 the next name, I'll come back to this poll, uh, a few times throughout our discussion here, but, um,
00:07:30.180 you said you could put them in a police lineup. People wouldn't notice them, know who they were. Uh,
00:07:35.660 abacus data in mid July released a poll and, uh, liberals were giddy saying, ha ha ha. Only 66%
00:07:44.380 can name Pierre Polyev when they show a photo, a third of Canadians don't know who he is.
00:07:49.600 Well, they also asked the potential liberal leadership contenders. Only 7% knew who Mark
00:07:56.120 Carney was when they showed a photo 93%. No clue. I mean, my joke has been that they probably thought
00:08:02.720 it was a character for mad men, or it was one of the two guys that played Darren and bewitched.
00:08:07.780 So, uh, that's where they're at. Okay. Let's move along.
00:08:11.620 Christia Freeland, a woman that more people knew in that poll, but only 39% could name her.
00:08:18.500 61% could not, even though she's been deputy PM and the finance minister for the last four years,
00:08:25.200 since they axed the old finance minister, Bill Morneau, four years ago.
00:08:30.080 What are your thoughts on her?
00:08:32.900 I actually feel sorry for her, you know, uh, because of the guy we were just talking about,
00:08:38.480 because of Carney, Trudeau strung out this suggestion that he's talking to Carney to come
00:08:44.680 into cabinet and he wouldn't be coming into cabinet, become minister of veterans affairs.
00:08:49.640 He'd be coming in to be in the minister of finance. That would be the deal. And, you know,
00:08:54.620 Trudeau when asked, well, what happens to Freeland? And he, he, what was the phrase he used?
00:08:59.320 I have full confidence in her abilities, which is exactly what he said about Bill Morneau. So
00:09:04.540 probably made her blood run cold. So it'd be yet another, you know, prominent liberal woman being 1.00
00:09:09.560 thrown under the bus by, by Trudeau and his PMO. But, you know, my big problem with her has always
00:09:16.140 been twofold. Number one, she was, she's too close to the blast radius, right? Now on SNC-Lavalin,
00:09:22.220 she looked the other way. The Aga Khan, she looked the other way. She doesn't seem to have a moral
00:09:27.020 center. That's number one. And number two, she talks to me like I'm an idiot and maybe I am an
00:09:32.220 idiot, but in fairness, she talks to all of us like we're idiots, which is the point. 1.00
00:09:37.200 It sounds like a kindergarten teacher reading to you. Yeah. Yeah. You know, she, you don't need to 1.00
00:09:44.540 talk down to people. No. And she does. And I'm sure she doesn't intend to. And I'm, you know,
00:09:49.440 perhaps she's a very nice person. I don't really know her, but she's been soiled. And I use that
00:09:55.180 deliberately by her proximity to the Trudeau regime. And she just, the, the fundamentals of
00:10:03.260 it, the fundamentals of politicians, I always feel really are important. That's why I like guys like
00:10:07.880 Doug Ford and Jean Chrétien and Ralph Klein and Rennie Levesque, you know, the people that are kind
00:10:13.460 of hell of a guy. She just does not say hell of a gal to me. She just seems like somebody who's,
00:10:19.500 you know, come down from the faculty club and she's going to tell me what to think.
00:10:23.300 And that just doesn't work as a leader, but she knows what all the best wines at 1.00
00:10:27.000 Taroni's are on Price street in Rosedale. Yeah, she does. That's a very inside Toronto
00:10:32.580 joke. Uh, but it, it, it's a, you know, it is literally the restaurant that Andrew
00:10:37.620 Coyne at the Globe and Mail writes his columns at and, uh, all the smart and fancy people
00:10:42.780 go to in Rosedale. It's a great restaurant, by the way, great pasta, but it is a little
00:10:47.760 hoity-toity and, uh, and she comes across that way. So I, I, you know, I, I look at her
00:10:55.180 from the perspective of, uh, her beliefs in what she's done and I'm sitting right next
00:11:01.440 to her book here, Plutocrats. She actually embraces economists like Thomas Piketty who want
00:11:07.980 75 to 90% marginal tax rates. And I think, how is that a liberal? She's another example 0.83
00:11:15.760 of the far left wing of the party trying to take over the NDP space. And in some ways,
00:11:24.320 I guess they've been successful at that, but they're not, uh, they're not, uh, willing
00:11:31.200 to admit that they embrace full on socialism. Whereas the liberal party you worked for was
00:11:36.000 actually centrist. Next candidate who in my view is not centrist. And if she were to take
00:11:42.760 over the liberal party, uh, would only be able to do so by radically remaking it in her own 1.00
00:11:50.160 image. And that's Melanie Jolie, the current foreign affairs minister. Warren is speaking
00:11:54.480 to, uh, uh, uh, an old liberal, more of, of your vintage and, uh, Ontario based liberal
00:12:01.360 said, there's no way that Melanie Jolie can win. She doesn't have support of the, the people I'm
00:12:06.780 talking to and her views on Israel and Hamas would make her, uh, unpalatable. And when I told
00:12:14.740 them what I'm about to tell you was shocked and hadn't thought of that. I said, if Melanie
00:12:19.460 Jolie takes over, it is because she will appeal to the people who oppose Israel and tacitly support 0.92
00:12:27.900 Hamas and remake the party in that fashion. That is how she will win. Your thoughts. 1.00
00:12:34.820 Melanie Jolie. I've said this before and I'll say it again. And when she heard me say this,
00:12:40.820 she blocked me on Twitter for a number of years. Uh, maybe she's unblocked me. I don't know. And I
00:12:46.640 don't care. She is the worst cabinet minister in the history of confederation. You look at her 1.00
00:12:53.800 milestones, the things she's achieved in her career early on building a hockey rink on
00:13:00.460 Parliament Hill at a cost of millions. The cost per skate would be in the thousands. And
00:13:06.300 she built that hockey rink using taxpayers' money, mere feet from the biggest hockey rink 0.99
00:13:11.280 in the world, which is the Rideau Canal. Okay. Which did freeze that, that winter. It was not
00:13:16.320 a great skating season the past year, but I was living in Ottawa at the time. I skated on the
00:13:21.100 hockey rink. Not easy to get in. And, uh, but you know, it was, it was a disaster. It was millions
00:13:27.680 and millions over budget. So that's early on in her career. Now look at it. You know, we have this
00:13:33.240 terrible, horrific tragedy from the weekend where 12 children, 12 Arab Israeli children are killed by
00:13:41.400 a deliberate attack by Hezbollah on Saturday evening, children killed playing soccer. And she can't even
00:13:48.700 bring herself to properly identify who did it. And that has been consistent of her behavior and her
00:13:56.800 approach since October the 7th. You know, if you have the impression that she doesn't like Israel
00:14:02.260 and doesn't favor Israel, you'd be right. She doesn't. And as a consequence, it is further 0.76
00:14:09.120 marginalized Canada in the world. Like getting back to Freeland for a second, at least when she was
00:14:15.340 there because she was previously at global affairs, you know, I didn't mind her. She
00:14:20.360 renegotiated the free trade agreement with Donald Trump. That's pretty hard to do. Right. She pulled
00:14:26.980 that off. That is actually a success. Name me one thing that Melanie Jolie has achieved in the time
00:14:35.080 that she's been minister. Well, she was summoned to China to be called out on the rug in Beijing
00:14:40.820 and came out saying good things. You know, that's about it. She's terrible. She's terrible. And if
00:14:50.260 the liberal party picks her to be their leader, because I know they've got this. They talk to
00:14:55.840 Quebec liberals and there's two people that they recognize in the province of Quebec.
00:15:01.560 Justin Trudeau, Melanie Jolie, and she pulls well. Now, the liberals have to get over their fixation 0.97
00:15:10.180 on Quebec, just like the conservatives do. Quebec is important. But if you put all your attention
00:15:14.960 into Quebec, when you're not going to win the majority of seats, then you are, you know,
00:15:20.500 potentially losing seats in places like Ontario. Melanie Jolie would not do well in Ontario,
00:15:26.140 I don't think. She would not do well in Western Canada, including British Columbia,
00:15:31.860 but she would do well in Quebec. I don't think they're picking her or those people you're speaking
00:15:36.120 to are thinking about her because she's a Quebecer because that's actually a deficit
00:15:39.640 because Trudeau himself represents a Quebec riding. Liberal party has a long tradition that's worked for
00:15:45.400 them on not picking two Quebecers in a row. The reason why they're thinking about her is,
00:15:51.720 you know, she's telegenic, she's an attractive person, but also because she's a female. The 1.00
00:15:57.520 Liberal party has had internally, since 1993, an internal thing about, we need a female leader. 0.97
00:16:05.940 Like hell, the conservatives, the PCs actually had a female leader, albeit just for a summer job. 0.50
00:16:12.640 It was an internship.
00:16:13.520 It was, but they had, they, you know, the conservatives, the conservatives, all people did
00:16:18.140 at first. And they've had interim leaders who were women like Ronna Ambrose. 1.00
00:16:22.220 That's right. I forgot about that. And so, you know, it bugs liberals that they've been kind of
00:16:28.020 out-progressived, not sure that's a word, but I'll use it, then by the conservatives. Like it drives
00:16:34.980 them bananas. So they're thinking, quite a few of them right now, whoever it is, whether it's Freeland
00:16:40.300 or Jolie or Anand, we need to have a woman in there. But, and you know, I have some sympathy for that 0.98
00:16:46.740 argument, but it can't be Jolie because she's a terrible minister. She's terrible. 0.97
00:16:52.260 One thing that I've talked about with some conservatives, not people that are around
00:16:57.820 Polyev, but who have run campaigns, they've said that Jolie, possibly Freeland, well, Jolie especially
00:17:06.940 would be a nightmare if Trudeau left and they installed her as leader. Because the way they put
00:17:16.560 it to me is, you can't punch Justin Trudeau hard enough right now. The public is fed up with him
00:17:23.200 and it doesn't matter how hard you hit the guy. People aren't going to say, that's unfair. They're
00:17:28.520 going to say, hit him again. You can't punch a woman. Even in this day and age, we are all equal. 0.98
00:17:36.320 We've got to show full respect. You can't treat a woman in politics the same way that you treat a man
00:17:43.040 in politics in terms of doing battle with them because the public will recoil. Many women will 1.00
00:17:50.260 get upset and say that's sexist. And a lot of guys will be like, you're being mean to a woman. You
00:17:54.240 can't do that. So some conservatives think she is their nightmare candidate. Carney's their dream. 0.87
00:18:01.560 Jolie would be their nightmare.
00:18:02.680 I don't believe that anymore. I used to believe it. I don't believe it.
00:18:05.320 And the proof of it is 2016, Donald Trump following Hillary Clinton around a stage,
00:18:11.440 looking like he was going to actually throttle her, not just punch her. I'm sorry, Brian,
00:18:16.600 that is no longer the case because Donald Trump won that election. So I don't think that that is
00:18:22.840 true. I think Poliev, if it's unlikely. I mean, Hillary was a well-known figure in politics. She was not
00:18:30.740 well-liked by a good portion of the public, loved by another portion, disliked by the other. I'm not
00:18:36.640 sure you could say that about Jolie.
00:18:38.760 Well, it doesn't matter. I don't think she's going to be the pick because at the end of the day,
00:18:42.100 she does not stand up to scrutiny.
00:18:44.500 All right. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk about some
00:18:48.620 more. I hope you're enjoying this conversation. Grab a beer, grab a coffee. More with Warren Kinsella
00:18:53.320 when we come back.
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00:19:58.060 is every fabulous item I see from Winners?
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00:20:12.900 That dress?
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00:20:22.560 So Justin Trudeau still has not left, but we are speculating.
00:20:26.460 Who will replace him?
00:20:28.360 Or who's the best bet?
00:20:29.640 Who could beat Pierre Polyev in a battle of the network stars?
00:20:35.620 Dominic LeBlanc, the National Post article that prompted our conversation more,
00:20:39.600 they call him the fixer.
00:20:41.800 I think that's an apt term.
00:20:43.120 He's someone that you know.
00:20:46.320 He's someone that I've covered.
00:20:48.760 He apparently is looking to organize for whenever Trudeau does leave.
00:20:55.700 I can't see that happening without the blessing of the boss.
00:20:59.200 You know, they're close friends.
00:21:00.400 LeBlanc used to babysit Trudeau.
00:21:02.180 Um, while I think he is probably Trudeau's most politically astute minister and a guy
00:21:09.440 who does go in and clean up stuff, I'm not sure that the public has a clue who he is.
00:21:14.780 And in fact, that abacus poll, just 4% could name him.
00:21:18.540 What are your thoughts on Dom taking over?
00:21:22.380 Dom.
00:21:22.500 Well, um, I know him very well, uh, full disclosure.
00:21:28.460 His dad, Romeo LeBlanc, who was governor general, was my daughter's godfather.
00:21:34.320 And I was very glad.
00:21:35.640 I employed Dominic's sister.
00:21:38.540 Um, you know, I know the LeBlancs really well.
00:21:41.180 When I was Kretzian's special assistant, writing his speeches and getting him ready for a question period and stuff like that,
00:21:47.100 the guy in the very next office was Dominic LeBlanc.
00:21:50.100 So, I, I know Dominic LeBlanc better than a lot of people.
00:21:54.560 I think he is the pick if they're smart.
00:21:58.220 Um, he is truly the fixer, as the Post had said.
00:22:03.380 Like, guys like Doug Ford think he's great.
00:22:06.400 You know, New Democrat.
00:22:07.260 So, he has that hog factor you're talking about. 0.99
00:22:10.580 The hell of a guy. 0.73
00:22:11.480 He's from New Brunswick.
00:22:12.600 He's not from Quebec.
00:22:13.660 He's not from the Golden Triangle.
00:22:15.820 You know, he's, he went to Harvard.
00:22:17.840 You know, he's got the academic chops.
00:22:20.740 But Dominic is the kind of guy you can see.
00:22:23.300 And he'll make you laugh.
00:22:24.460 He is super funny.
00:22:25.740 He's one of the funniest people I've ever met in politics.
00:22:28.200 So, the way I've described him to people who don't know him at all is he makes you want to like him.
00:22:34.280 Even if you go in saying, I hate the Trudeau government.
00:22:37.080 I hate everyone in the Trudeau government.
00:22:38.620 I don't want anything to do with the Trudeau government.
00:22:41.220 You're going to meet LeBlanc.
00:22:42.440 And as you say, he's going to make you laugh.
00:22:45.100 While you're talking about serious stuff, unimportant stuff,
00:22:49.300 he's going to make you laugh.
00:22:50.580 He's going to make you comfortable.
00:22:51.760 That is a skill most politicians lack.
00:22:55.960 But he's got it in spades.
00:22:57.500 But is that enough for him to win the Liberal Party?
00:23:01.140 His big problem, because he is the fixer, as the Post has said.
00:23:04.580 You know, when Trudeau has a mistake or a mess, and he has plenty,
00:23:09.960 the guy, the person who gets sent in is not Freeland.
00:23:13.700 It's not Jolie.
00:23:15.340 It's not a, it's always Dominic.
00:23:17.500 Because Dominic has the political chops and the smarts to clean up the messes
00:23:21.840 that Justin Trudeau leaves on aisle three.
00:23:24.820 When Marco Mendicino made a mess at public safety,
00:23:29.300 and Mendicino, I am sure, had leadership ambitions at one point.
00:23:33.060 Now he's out of cabinet and worried about keeping his,
00:23:37.320 what was a safe Toronto seat, because of the seat change against Trudeau.
00:23:41.480 So, but LeBlanc took that over, you don't hear about public safety anymore.
00:23:45.640 No.
00:23:45.980 He makes things go away.
00:23:48.080 And people like the guy.
00:23:49.340 He is very likable.
00:23:50.680 The problem is something that he can't control.
00:23:54.140 He had cancer.
00:23:55.960 He had a serious case of cancer.
00:23:58.400 It is now, hopefully, reportedly in remission.
00:24:03.160 But the concern a lot of people would have,
00:24:05.680 and you saw how real this can become with Biden in the past few weeks.
00:24:09.440 They want, if they hire you for the job,
00:24:12.300 they want to see that you've got the health,
00:24:14.660 the ability to get to the other end of the job.
00:24:17.620 And Dominic, what I'm hearing from people is,
00:24:21.300 I love the guy.
00:24:22.420 He's a friend.
00:24:23.600 He's somebody I could support.
00:24:25.080 Is his health okay?
00:24:27.200 So he'd have to come out and make that clear?
00:24:30.220 He would.
00:24:30.900 He would.
00:24:31.280 Because that is a concern that a lot of liberals would have.
00:24:35.200 Is, you know, Jack Layton, you know, for the NDP, you know, they won.
00:24:41.800 They did better under Jack Layton than they ever had.
00:24:44.920 And they had this almost Shakespearean tragedy where the poor guy got cancer and died.
00:24:50.340 Liberals don't want that to happen to them. 0.77
00:24:51.960 I remember covering that at the time.
00:24:55.260 And I knew Jack well.
00:24:57.020 And I thought that I didn't see the decline.
00:25:00.140 Or maybe I'd been too, you know, seeing him too often and seeing him go down.
00:25:04.440 I thought people were being unfair to him and bringing up his health in the 2011 election.
00:25:09.060 I said so on TV.
00:25:11.820 I said so in print and radio.
00:25:14.080 And it turns out I was wrong.
00:25:17.180 And his health was a concern.
00:25:19.960 But, you know, his fixer was Tom Mulcair.
00:25:23.420 How would, let's say it was LeBlanc.
00:25:25.820 You and I both like him.
00:25:27.320 Let's say he takes over.
00:25:29.160 Justin Trudeau has tried to win elections by, you know, running far to the left of the NDP.
00:25:38.320 The liberals used to win by taking a bit from the NDP, a bit from the conservatives.
00:25:42.700 They have kind of abandoned center field.
00:25:46.820 How would Dom be different?
00:25:48.800 Or would he be different than Trudeau?
00:25:51.360 Dominic LeBlanc is a Boston Democrat.
00:25:54.320 He will do whatever it takes to win.
00:25:57.240 That has been the tradition in the Liberal Party.
00:25:59.500 It's why, you know, the Liberal Party has been, as impressively, the most successful political machine in Western democracy.
00:26:06.120 You do what it takes to win.
00:26:07.940 So Dominic comes from that tradition.
00:26:10.060 The Trudeau guys have doubled down on policies that are highly unpopular.
00:26:14.200 They've doubled down on things they know the public is upset about, believing, no, we just have to explain it better.
00:26:21.220 Or, you know, like cod liver oil, it's good for you.
00:26:24.940 He would just, you know, say, all right, forget it.
00:26:27.940 We're changing the immigration system back to the way it was. 0.98
00:26:31.800 Or we're, you know, we're cutting down on international students or what have you.
00:26:36.380 I think everybody's looking at all of these candidates you and I are talking about and assuming they are going to take the Liberal Party back to the center.
00:26:45.680 And I don't think they should make that assumption for two reasons.
00:26:48.900 Number one, doing a deal with Jagmeet Singh to turn a minority into a majority, that was a smart thing to do.
00:26:58.800 That was a political achievement.
00:26:59.840 They turn a minority into a majority, number one. 0.99
00:27:02.880 Number two, if Pierre Polyev does not get a majority, I believe he will, but let's say he doesn't, he's in big trouble.
00:27:10.660 Because I believe that these guys, whoever wins, is going to do what Dion attempted to do, which is craft a deal with the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to push Polyev out. 0.89
00:27:22.380 Polyev has to get a majority or I believe he's going to be back on the opposition benches.
00:27:27.100 Next candidate, they, what does the Post call him?
00:27:33.220 He's the guy I call Frankie Bubbles.
00:27:35.260 That's a better name.
00:27:36.240 They call him the dealmaker.
00:27:38.360 He is business liberal.
00:27:41.080 Another little guy from Schwinigan.
00:27:43.240 Not the Petit Gar, but another one.
00:27:46.160 He, Francois Philippe Champagne, in case people don't know who I'm talking about with Frankie Bubbles.
00:27:52.640 Frankie Bubbles has been the energizer bunny.
00:27:56.560 Him and Vic Fidelli from Ontario have been going around the world bringing in these EV manufacturing plants, which some people like, pisses off others.
00:28:06.160 But they're also bringing in other manufacturers.
00:28:08.440 They're bringing in other businesses.
00:28:09.760 And they are dealmakers.
00:28:12.660 I like the guy.
00:28:14.060 I think he's got a great positive personality.
00:28:17.560 I've dealt with him in several different ministries over the years.
00:28:22.260 Would they go for a Quebecer, specifically a Quebecer dude?
00:28:26.360 You were saying there's a lot of people want a woman in there. 1.00
00:28:30.060 Would he even have a shot?
00:28:32.500 I don't think so.
00:28:33.440 And it's too bad because he is an impressive guy.
00:28:36.520 And let me say, let me say, just as Alan Fotheringham invented Brian Mulroney, Brian Lilly invented Frankie Bubbles.
00:28:46.820 You were one of the, you were the earliest.
00:28:49.420 Actually, it was you who drew my attention to the guy and how impressive he was.
00:28:54.100 Even before Kretzian did, because Kretzian, who I talk to somewhat regularly, he also says, you've got to check this guy out.
00:29:01.440 But the problem is twofold.
00:29:03.620 As you just identified, he's another Quebecer.
00:29:06.040 They are not going to pick another Quebecer.
00:29:09.460 Not going to do that.
00:29:10.700 Now, the funny thing is, a lot of Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau is a Francophone Quebecer.
00:29:16.360 Have you ever heard the complaints from Francophone Quebecers that he's an Anglo from Ontario?
00:29:20.360 They're separatists.
00:29:21.240 They complain about everything.
00:29:22.280 I don't care about them.
00:29:23.020 But the second reason why, the second reason why you can't pick him is he does actually have a mistake on his resume.
00:29:31.660 This is the guy who promised to bring grocery prices down.
00:29:37.200 He promised to bring the big grocery trains like Loblaws to heal.
00:29:42.640 He didn't do it.
00:29:43.900 He didn't do it.
00:29:44.700 He also equally promised that he would get Canadians more sane prices on cell phone service.
00:29:52.160 And wireless service and the internet.
00:29:54.320 He didn't do that either.
00:29:55.700 So I think he is vulnerable on those two fronts.
00:29:59.260 As the minister of industry, he has responsibility for bringing these big companies down to earth and getting them to treat consumers properly.
00:30:08.220 And in fairness to him, that was always a hard assignment, but he hasn't done it.
00:30:13.560 And that's an issue that cuts party lines.
00:30:16.300 It's not just, you know, liberals or new Democrats who think, well, the government needs to do something about the price of cell phones.
00:30:25.380 Everybody is annoyed at the price of cell phones.
00:30:28.820 Anita Anand is on everyone's list, and I'm not sure why.
00:30:32.840 The National Post calls her the keener.
00:30:34.900 And maybe that, I think that's an accurate description.
00:30:39.180 Most people have no idea who she is.
00:30:42.120 She actually does better than Mark Carney and Dominic LeBlanc.
00:30:47.080 19% of people could name her when they saw her.
00:30:49.840 But Bill Morneau recruited her to politics, I believe, from academia.
00:30:56.080 She seems smart.
00:30:58.060 She seems earnest.
00:30:59.820 And you will forget her five minutes after she leaves the room.
00:31:05.120 Anita who?
00:31:06.140 Yeah.
00:31:06.580 Yeah, Anita who? 0.94
00:31:07.340 But the big problem is this.
00:31:09.820 Champagne's going to get re-elected, even if the liberals get in big trouble.
00:31:14.480 Freeland's going to get re-elected.
00:31:16.100 Dominic's going to get re-elected.
00:31:17.660 She's not going to get re-elected. 1.00
00:31:19.860 She is in Oakville.
00:31:21.320 Oakville, Ontario.
00:31:22.120 Oakville is one of the swingiest swing seats.
00:31:25.340 It goes the way the government goes.
00:31:27.300 If you're going to have a massive conservative majority, she is going to be a footnote of history. 0.97
00:31:32.320 She's not going to be a leadership contender when she can't even keep her own seat. 1.00
00:31:36.760 You heard it here first, folks.
00:31:38.520 From Warren Kinsella, Oakville is full of swingers. 0.97
00:31:41.280 I didn't realize that.
00:31:42.860 Vote swingers. 0.84
00:31:43.800 Vote swingers. 0.84
00:31:45.640 Yeah, she is not going to win.
00:31:49.280 You know, Freeland, yeah, most likely.
00:31:52.040 You know, the conservatives got into Toronto St. Paul's.
00:31:54.960 I can't see them winning Toronto, what's her, Rosedale?
00:32:00.840 Yep.
00:32:01.140 Yeah.
00:32:01.560 It's a writing above me.
00:32:02.660 I'm in Toronto Centre.
00:32:03.860 The only way that's potentially changing is if it goes NDP, which possibility.
00:32:08.440 That could happen.
00:32:09.160 So, Anita Anand, she's kind of out.
00:32:12.880 As we scroll down through the list, Sean Fraser, they call the millennial.
00:32:17.960 He is the guy who broke the immigration system.
00:32:23.060 That's what I can't get past.
00:32:24.500 He's now the Minister of Housing.
00:32:25.880 And part of the reason that we have a housing crisis or that it is as acute as it is, is because he broke the immigration system.
00:32:37.880 He's the guy that started letting in what we have last year, 900,000 or a million temporary foreign students coming in.
00:32:44.360 I mean, you can't get housing near any of the campuses that these people are living in.
00:32:52.040 Drove up the immigration, annual immigration numbers for permanent residents to 500,000 from roughly 250 to 300,000.
00:33:01.800 So, buying a home in Toronto, you know, they're talking about maybe we'll bring in an annual tax on your home if it's worth more than $1 million.
00:33:08.700 Well, that's every home in the greater Toronto area, every single family home.
00:33:15.220 This guy, I can't see how he could possibly be a leader.
00:33:18.940 Maybe if the Liberals were out of power for a while, he could come in down the road and do it.
00:33:24.720 But to me, I just see the guy that broke the immigration system, the one that used to have lots of public support.
00:33:31.780 And according to polling and focus groups from the Privy Council office, no longer does.
00:33:37.380 If you say, there you go again, you're concerned about policy, and I never care about policy.
00:33:43.940 Like, and on the housing thing, there isn't a politician in the country that anybody would give any credit to.
00:33:50.260 Because they're mad at all the politicians on housing because it's such a mess.
00:33:53.640 So, I think he'll escape that one.
00:33:56.820 On TV, he-
00:33:57.740 Hold on.
00:33:58.200 You don't believe in policy?
00:33:59.460 You just brought up the grocery prices.
00:34:01.620 Hard to believe.
00:34:02.000 No, he, I don't think they put the blame for that one at his feet alone.
00:34:08.460 What I'm saying is they put the blame at the level of, at the feet of every politician in Canada, from municipal on up.
00:34:14.680 He looks good on TV.
00:34:16.140 He's articulate.
00:34:17.100 He's from Atlantic Canada.
00:34:18.760 He hasn't been close to the blast radius on a lot of the scandals.
00:34:21.940 But he's 40 years old.
00:34:23.900 You know, I got shoes that are older, right?
00:34:25.500 So, I think it is worthwhile for him to run.
00:34:28.680 It's worthwhile for him to run, to get his name up, and so on.
00:34:31.360 But it would be a run for next time, not for this time.
00:34:34.300 I do like that the article The Post put out did quote the Full Comment podcast from a few weeks ago when I had Andrew Perez on.
00:34:42.420 And he described Sean Fraser as the future of the federal liberal party, a potential future party leader.
00:34:49.900 He's a millennial.
00:34:50.980 He's smart.
00:34:51.580 He's a good communicator.
00:34:52.800 He's attractive.
00:34:54.600 Yeah.
00:34:55.460 Whatever.
00:34:56.080 Who cares?
00:34:56.680 Like, he's not going to win.
00:34:58.740 Justin Trudeau won the leadership when he was in his 40s, but he's a different beast.
00:35:03.620 Yeah, he had that surname thing.
00:35:05.600 That wasn't, that was kind of helpful.
00:35:07.340 And the boxing match.
00:35:09.160 Yeah.
00:35:09.460 Which, you know, you got to remember, I was the ringside announcer for it.
00:35:12.960 You were.
00:35:14.000 You can find it on YouTube, folks.
00:35:15.860 If you've never heard me call a boxing match and you want to know what that's like, it's on the YouTube. 0.95
00:35:21.140 And I said to Gerald Butts before that thing, I think I told you, too, are you guys crazy?
00:35:25.780 What if he gets knocked out? 0.64
00:35:27.040 If he gets knocked out, it's all over.
00:35:28.800 And Butts was like, yeah, we know.
00:35:30.720 We're just going to do it.
00:35:31.940 And it's like, it transformed Justin Trudeau.
00:35:34.860 Made him a household name even more than he was.
00:35:37.140 Oh, just a quick aside.
00:35:39.460 For people who haven't heard how that boxing match came together.
00:35:42.360 I was in the makeup chair at SunYu's network.
00:35:45.440 And the woman that does Trudeau's hair used to cut my hair, used to cut Harper's hair, Jim Flaherty, Stefania Capavia. 1.00
00:35:52.760 She also cut Senator Brazzo's hair. 0.99
00:35:55.820 Basically, she had a salon that looked after a lot of people that worked on the hill. 1.00
00:35:59.820 And Brazzo was going into a charity boxing match.
00:36:04.800 And this boxing match had been going on for a while.
00:36:07.740 And it wasn't a big deal.
00:36:10.500 He said he needed somebody to fight.
00:36:12.720 And Stefania said, I know a guy.
00:36:14.980 And it was Trudeau.
00:36:16.160 She tells me that she arranged this.
00:36:17.700 I did not know that.
00:36:18.300 She tells me that she had set this up.
00:36:20.580 I got out of the makeup chair, made a beeline to Corey Tonight's office, and said, Trudeau's going to box Brazzo. 0.99
00:36:27.880 And he said, we'll broadcast it like it's the fucking moon landing. 0.97
00:36:31.920 And we made it into a big deal. 0.99
00:36:35.320 It was a big deal.
00:36:36.240 And so I'm to blame for Justin Trudeau becoming prime minister.
00:36:40.800 Mark Miller is on the list.
00:36:44.040 He is current immigration minister, former minister of indigenous affairs, went to McGill.
00:36:54.060 He was part of that McGill mafia that surrounds Trudeau, was in Trudeau's wedding party.
00:36:57.900 I don't, they call him the anti-Polyev.
00:37:03.360 Maybe, but I have trouble seeing Mark Miller as a serious leadership contender.
00:37:09.880 You know, he's the type of guy that you could say, all right, smart guy, put him in charge of a ministry, do a good job.
00:37:17.060 You know, the jury's out on whether he's done a good job or not.
00:37:19.940 But to me, he's a supporting player.
00:37:24.080 He's up for best supporting actor in a movie one day.
00:37:27.240 He is not lead actor.
00:37:29.420 No, he, you know, when Trudeau goes, he's going to go.
00:37:32.220 He's there because of Trudeau.
00:37:33.600 They're very close friends.
00:37:34.620 He was in Trudeau's wedding party.
00:37:36.960 He's a smart guy.
00:37:37.900 The way it was described to me is he was one of the guys counting $20 bills in the back of the room when Trudeau first started running the leadership.
00:37:45.180 Like, that's how close they are.
00:37:46.680 He's a smart guy.
00:37:48.500 And, but it just, you know, they've tried to turn him into an attack dog lately.
00:37:53.280 And it just, he's not pulling it off.
00:37:55.960 It's, he's not effective at it.
00:37:57.560 So, and I, and honestly, I was actually surprised to see him name on this list.
00:38:02.460 I have never heard anybody talk about Miller being a leadership candidate until I read this thing in the National Post.
00:38:08.820 Yeah, not, neither have I, and it may surprise people, but you do know, I talk to liberals.
00:38:15.060 What surprises me is they talk back.
00:38:18.200 They actually will take my calls or meet me or, or respond to text messages.
00:38:25.180 Jean Charest is on this list.
00:38:26.900 And, you know, there's probably a lot of people who supported Pierre Polyev in the conservative leadership race saying, yeah, well, he was a liberal the whole time.
00:38:36.560 I would disagree.
00:38:38.780 He was and still is a conservative.
00:38:42.200 And I don't see him, you know, jumping ship.
00:38:47.040 And he's probably done with politics.
00:38:48.880 I mean, that was my take when the last time I spoke to him.
00:38:52.020 Yeah, this one, it was, I interpreted it as the post having a bit of fun, a bit of mischief, a bit of mischief.
00:38:58.760 He is a conservative.
00:39:00.600 You've interviewed him.
00:39:01.720 I've interviewed him.
00:39:02.560 I've known him.
00:39:03.400 You've known him.
00:39:04.360 He's a conservative.
00:39:05.800 He's not a Paul, Pierre Polyev style of conservative.
00:39:08.580 The leadership race made that clear, but he is a conservative.
00:39:12.900 His policy, if people took a look at it, was much more conservative than people would have thought.
00:39:19.500 He did not get a look from people who were supporting Polyev or the other candidates because they just said old red Tory, really a liberal, a tourist in the party to coin or steal a phrase, not coining it.
00:39:36.100 But the last name on the list is one that I actually think is interesting.
00:39:39.960 And that's Christy Clark, the former BC Premier.
00:39:45.980 She's from the old BC Liberal Party.
00:39:49.360 BC Liberals used to be where the federal liberals and federal conservatives came together at the provincial level to take on the NDP hordes and stop them from conquering everything.
00:40:03.820 I don't know if you've seen this, but there have been a bunch of federal liberals now running for the BC NDP.
00:40:11.200 So, like, the BC liberals out there aren't the same.
00:40:14.660 I think she'd be an interesting pick because she is a centrist, as the Post calls her.
00:40:20.580 She's not near the blast radius, which is your big concern.
00:40:24.240 She is someone who knows how politics works but isn't an insider.
00:40:32.000 Those things are all good points, in my view.
00:40:35.440 Do you think she has the interest, the ability to take over the party, the support within the party?
00:40:40.880 Or are they more like, you know, the guys running to join the provincial NDP of David Eby?
00:40:46.120 I think she's a contender, and for a couple of reasons.
00:40:49.720 Firstly, she was one of the few people who have the guts to actually say Trudeau should go and put her name to it, and that needed to happen.
00:40:56.660 But secondly, you know, I helped run Gord Campbell's campaign for the BC Liberals, and I was a federal liberal, in 1996, and that was the election that Christy won first.
00:41:07.460 And she is, you know, a lot like people like me.
00:41:10.540 She's fiscally conservative and socially progressive.
00:41:13.380 That really is the majority of Canadian voters.
00:41:15.560 So I think that she is a contender.
00:41:19.660 The question is, can she come from that loss she had against John Horgan in BC?
00:41:25.880 Because she lost, right?
00:41:27.460 She didn't win.
00:41:28.460 She lost badly.
00:41:29.960 Well, I remember, was it 2013, being in the Sheraton Ballroom on Burrard Street in Vancouver?
00:41:37.660 Hopefully I got the location right.
00:41:39.360 I think so.
00:41:39.860 You're the guy who lived in Vancouver.
00:41:40.880 You were there because you were advising the BC Liberals, and it was—
00:41:46.320 Oh, no, that was Hotel Vancouver.
00:41:47.640 That was Hotel Vancouver?
00:41:48.720 Yep.
00:41:49.020 Okay.
00:41:49.420 There were—maybe the Sheraton was where I was staying.
00:41:52.420 But you were there.
00:41:54.140 There were federal conservatives there, like Demetri Pansatopoulos.
00:41:57.500 There was Warren Kinsella and other federal liberals.
00:42:01.000 And Clark had an amazing comeback.
00:42:05.060 She was supposed to lose that 2013 election. 0.55
00:42:08.220 And we went in saying, okay, she's lost.
00:42:12.700 And she ended up winning.
00:42:15.360 It was an incredible comeback.
00:42:16.680 So she does have skills.
00:42:18.020 She does, and I think she's what the Liberal Party needs.
00:42:23.000 She—you know, the perfect candidate is a fusion of Dominic LeBlanc's chops and skills
00:42:28.820 and smarts and somebody like Christy Clark, because I think having a strong, female, smart 1.00
00:42:35.340 candidate like her would change the outcome for the Liberal Party. 0.99
00:42:39.220 But the outcome, whoever they pick, any of these people, they're still looking at losing
00:42:44.080 because the bottom line is Liberal Party of Canada has been behind Pierre Polyev by 15
00:42:49.620 to 20 points for more than a year.
00:42:51.380 It's a tattoo.
00:42:53.020 Like, it's not a—it's not a passing fling.
00:42:56.560 This is real.
00:42:57.860 They are going to lose.
00:42:59.540 So they've got to be thinking about picking somebody who can rebuild the party because
00:43:03.840 the party—like, Brian, the party doesn't exist.
00:43:06.740 Liberal Party does not exist in many parts of the country.
00:43:10.300 Unlike the conservatives, even unlike the NDP, the Liberal Party doesn't exist.
00:43:14.080 The party has no presence.
00:43:16.200 We've got to wrap soon, but I want you to explain why that matters, because a lot of
00:43:20.500 people just think, well, you get a good leader, and the leader's popular, but you need that
00:43:26.040 ground game.
00:43:26.780 You need that organization.
00:43:28.700 Yeah, and the reason why it matters is 1,500.
00:43:31.080 The majority of the Liberal wins in the caucus presently are people who came within 1,500 votes
00:43:37.360 of either the Tory or the New Democrat.
00:43:39.220 Right.
00:43:39.800 So having an organization on the ground to get out the vote when the margins are that
00:43:44.220 tight really, really, really matters.
00:43:47.000 And the Liberal Party just doesn't exist in a lot of parts of the country.
00:43:49.800 And it's—well, they've turned it into a movement based around one guy.
00:43:53.820 And movements are top-down.
00:43:56.180 Parties are bottom-up.
00:43:57.560 Yeah.
00:43:57.760 But I've been saying for a long time that the similarities between Trump and Trudeau are
00:44:02.860 remarkable.
00:44:03.620 Yep.
00:44:03.980 And one of them is they both run movements that are centered around them.
00:44:08.840 One guy.
00:44:09.900 Yep.
00:44:10.360 Well, we'll see what happens over the next little while.
00:44:12.680 Warren is still firmly in the camp that Justin Trudeau is leaving.
00:44:16.380 I am still firmly in the camp that he is staying.
00:44:20.260 And so we'll see what happens.
00:44:21.900 And this list of contenders will still be contenders, regardless of when Trudeau leaves.
00:44:25.860 Because if he doesn't leave on his own, the voters will send him packing.
00:44:29.640 Warren, thanks for the time today.
00:44:30.940 Thank you, my friend.
00:44:31.980 Full Comment is a Postmedia podcast.
00:44:34.220 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.
00:44:35.780 This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.
00:44:39.880 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
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00:44:54.700 Thanks for listening.
00:44:55.560 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.