Full Comment - Trudeau survived. He’s still screwed.

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00:00:49.340 Over the past few weeks, Justin Trudeau has survived confidence votes from the Conservatives.

00:00:53.940 They tried to overthrow his government. This past week, it was a pitch from the inside,

00:00:58.960 an internal coup of rebel Liberal MPs trying to oust Justin Trudeau as the Liberal leader

00:01:04.460 and the Prime Minister. So it would sound like he's a man in control, and yet Parliament is

00:01:10.080 completely dysfunctional and the Liberals can't pass any bills or move their agenda.

00:01:14.760 Hello and welcome to the Full Comment Podcast. I'm Brian Lilly, your host, and I can honestly say

00:01:19.560 that in more than 20 years of covering Parliament, I'm struggling to think of a more tumultuous time.

00:01:24.740 A Prime Minister under attack from within and without, a government that can't function,

00:01:29.000 a major diplomatic spat with India, crime on the rise, an electorate upset about the economy,

00:01:34.560 and ready to move on from a government lost in dismal polling. And yet, Justin Trudeau carries

00:01:40.040 on seemingly unscathed, unbowed. To try and make some sense of this, I'm joined by another long-time

00:01:46.260 watcher of politics, a man who has long walked the corridors of power in Ottawa, National Post

00:01:51.240 Columnist John Iverson. John, thanks for the time. Hi, Brian.

00:01:55.800 You've been through some weird times on the Hill. We arrived up there around the same time,

00:02:01.140 I believe. So, you know, the Paul Martin switch over to Stephen Harper, confidence votes that

00:02:06.860 weren't confidence votes, you know, various plays for power. Do you remember anything quite like this?

00:02:15.420 Well, I mean, it's dysfunctional, absolutely no question. At the end of the day, Wednesday,

00:02:23.820 which was built up as this potential very dramatic event, was very anticlimactic. Nothing really

00:02:30.980 happened, or certainly nothing in public. It was a wet squib. It was a bit of a damp squib. But they,

00:02:37.080 I mean, for drama, there was nothing like the spring of 2005, which I'm sure you were there covering it,

00:02:44.180 when, you know, when Paul Martin brought Belinda Stronach into the National Press Theatre and unveiled

00:02:52.180 former Conservative leadership candidate as a new Liberal MP. And minister. In fact, even as a cabinet

00:02:59.960 minister. And then that vote in the House, where it was a non-confidence vote, and Harper was trying

00:03:06.900 to bring down the Martin government. And it all rested on one independent MP, Chuck Cadman, former

00:03:14.900 Conservative MP, who kind of languidly stood up and voted with the government and ended hopes of a

00:03:23.300 spring election in 2005, which, with hindsight, was probably a good thing for Harper. He may not have

00:03:29.540 won that election. And he subsequently won the following January. So for pure drama, I haven't

00:03:34.660 seen anything like that. But this at the moment, yeah. I mean, not a great surprise. I mean, I think

00:03:41.540 that governments, they just, they seem to survive storm after storm after storm. And people assume that

00:03:51.540 they haven't been damaged by those storms, such as the SNC-Lavalin affair in 2019. But all that

00:04:02.900 bad publicity and the draining of goodwill, it does, it's like a reservoir. It kind of

00:04:10.260 stacks up behind the reservoir. And at some point, the dam bursts. And I think we're seeing that

00:04:15.540 happening right now. Talk about this coup for a minute. So it was a failure. I had predicted it

00:04:23.780 would be a failure. In fact, I said just days before it happened, they'll be lucky to get more

00:04:29.380 than two dozen. And then, you know, all the reporting out of it is that it was exactly 24 MPs. There had

00:04:36.660 been estimates of as many as 60. These guys could not put their name to this. And that's something that

00:04:44.660 bothered me. Because you look at when the Paul Martin guys tried to take out Gretchen and then

00:04:50.260 eventually did, they at least said, here we are. Here's who we are. This is why we want change.

00:04:56.100 You've got a group of people who wouldn't even give the names of those who had signed the letter

00:05:00.580 to Justin Trudeau. What does that say about them? Trudeau's very low in popularity

00:05:08.100 and they can't stand up to him. What does that say to you?

00:05:10.820 Well, I'm not sure that the coup has failed. I mean, what was the quote about the French

00:05:17.460 Revolution? The Chinese statesman who said he was asked what the impact of the French

00:05:23.300 Revolution was. And he said, well, it's too early to say. And I don't think that this is over yet.

00:05:29.060 I mean, you've got 24 MPs who made it known to the Prime Minister their identity, at least behind

00:05:35.780 closed doors. I think possibly more damaging is that while there are people who are loyal,

00:05:43.860 100% loyal to Justin Trudeau, I think the bulk of the Liberal Caucus, if they were given a secret

00:05:49.140 ballot, would not vote in his favour. And so if we go to a secret ballot, then I think he's done for.

00:05:57.540 Now, I think he will try everything in his power to stop that happening. But here's another potential

00:06:03.060 scenario. The refuseniks, the 24 MPs who wanted him out, gave him until October 28th, I think.

00:06:12.580 Yeah, 28th. The next day is the Bloc Québécois deadline, which they've said if certain measures are

00:06:22.100 not enacted, which don't appear to be coming, then the consequences will fall where they may,

00:06:29.300 which makes it sound like they will vote with the Conservatives on a non-confidence vote.

00:06:35.620 When Ken McDonald, one of the refuseniks or dissidents, was asked on his way to caucus,

00:06:40.740 he said voting against the government on a non-confidence vote was an option. Now,

00:06:46.340 even if those 24 MPs abstained and didn't vote with Poiliev and Blanchet, it would come down to

00:06:54.100 four independent MPs. I did the math, there would be 156 if the Liberals minus the dissidents plus the

00:07:01.860 NDP voted against that motion, especially if you include the two Greens. There would be 152 if the

00:07:11.540 Bloc sided with the Conservatives and 24 abstained. You're down to four independent MPs. If some of

00:07:17.460 those dissidents voted for the non-confidence motion, we've got an election. So, you know,

00:07:26.020 they were very vague about what the consequences were, but I'm not quite sure that it meant that

00:07:33.860 it didn't have a follow-up plan. I mean, another thought on that is that many of these people

00:07:38.660 are not running again. So for them, they want to get on with their lives.

00:07:44.020 Wayne Long, Ken McDonald, they're not running again. Someone like Patrick Weiler from Vancouver,

00:07:48.740 I believe he is. Right. But let's say there's a good percentage of that 24 who are not running

00:07:56.180 again. They don't want to be hanging around for another year. They probably would quite welcome an

00:08:00.340 election soon, and then they can move on with their lives. So you think there's a possibility that

00:08:06.340 this week, or in the coming weeks, we could be looking at an election?

00:08:12.660 I think if you're relying on the NDP,

00:08:17.140 that's not going to happen. I don't think the NDP, they're always flattered to deceive. I don't think

00:08:23.780 they have enough money in their coffers yet. I don't think the polling is quite there for them yet.

00:08:29.860 So I don't think they're going to abandon the government in a non-confidence vote yet. But if

00:08:35.700 those 24 dissidents decide, right, we were just ignored, Trudeau has just ploughed on regardless,

00:08:45.300 then we might see consequences for sure. I would say, you know, McDonald said on his way into caucus,

00:08:53.940 he's got to start listening. And he's got to show signs that he's prepared to bend a little bit to

00:09:01.780 what people want. And then the next day, we saw Trudeau coming out with the immigration minister,

00:09:06.580 Mark Miller, and actually reversing himself, which was quite a major reversal on immigration,

00:09:13.140 to say they were going to cut immigration numbers, and admit that they hadn't got the balance right when

00:09:17.780 it came to bringing in new Canadians. As you pointed out in your column, as did I, in mine,

00:09:25.540 they tried to lay the blame everywhere else on that. They tried to say, well, you know,

00:09:30.180 we didn't get the balance right, but it was due to those nasty, greedy corporations, and those

00:09:35.380 post-secondary education institutions. And don't forget those provincial governments,

00:09:40.900 none of whom, by the way, can authorize a single, solitary visa to enter the country.

00:09:48.020 Right. I mean, I think there was, I think corporations did put every pressure and exaggerate

00:09:52.820 the problem. And there was a very real problem with labor at that time. The Bank of Canada

00:09:58.500 monetary policy report came out this week and suggested that 50% or more of companies could

00:10:05.140 not hire people at the wages they wanted to pay. Now, companies never want to pay, you know,

00:10:12.420 higher wages. And this was a means, not only of companies getting cheap labor, it was a means for

00:10:18.100 the government to try to suppress inflation, because they would keep wage demands down by

00:10:23.060 bringing in cheap labor. So there was an element of that.

00:10:26.100 And that's something that even Mike Moffitt, an economist, an academic, who has advised this

00:10:32.340 government on multiple different roles over the years, even he said that, that this was an attempt

00:10:37.700 to reduce and suppress wages.

00:10:40.340 Yep. Yep. I think there's no doubt about that.

00:10:44.340 Uh, so there was that, I mean, clearly, um, colleges and universities want more foreign

00:10:51.060 students because they pay exorbitant fees. So I'm sure there was an element of that.

00:10:54.980 And clearly some of these things said it happened.

00:10:57.940 Oh, absolutely all of that. But they have the ability to say yes or no.

00:11:01.460 Right. But there is a big but in the but. It's the government that says the rules.

00:11:05.540 Yeah.

00:11:06.260 And they, uh, despite being warned by the public service, we know that the public service

00:11:13.220 warned in briefings that there would be unintended consequences to this. And they plowed ahead with it.

00:11:18.180 I mean, it's remarkable to me that Sean Fraser is being mooted as a potential leadership candidate.

00:11:24.340 His fingerprints were all over this. He was the guy who ignored the warnings of unintended

00:11:28.500 consequences. Miller, who I think is, is an able and a sort of admirably candid minister. He said

00:11:36.340 yesterday, yeah, we should have acted sooner. And yeah, there was an impact on housing prices.

00:11:41.300 Um, yeah, he was pretty blunt in that.

00:11:44.180 Fraser was the guy who did it.

00:11:45.300 And you're right. He's being touted as a leadership candidate. Well, we'll get to that,

00:11:50.260 that part in a minute, but I saw this yesterday or the other day. And then of course, um, uh,

00:11:58.500 Trudeau is out trying to take credit for a drop in auto thefts. He was touring York region, uh,

00:12:05.540 police detachment on, on Friday to talk about that. Of course, auto thefts are down. They're not down to

00:12:10.820 where they were before the huge spike, but they're able to say, okay, they're down a little bit.

00:12:15.300 Uh, are, are we starting to see the beginning of, of Justin Trudeau starting his David Eby moment

00:12:21.380 where he starts campaigning against himself in an attempt to win reelection?

00:12:28.820 Yeah. Well, I think there's, there's nothing, uh, consistent about what they are,

00:12:34.260 are doing. And I mean, it would not surprise me if he is forced to retreat on the consumer carbon

00:12:42.660 price. I mean, it seems to me that if, if he is going to win back some of these MPs and a lot of

00:12:48.500 the MPs are rural MPs like Ken McDonald, then he would have to at least pause the consumer carbon tax,

00:12:57.540 which I mean, I, I've argued it in favor of as a, as the most market oriented way to reduce emissions.

00:13:02.580 If that's your goal and Canada is a signature to a, to the Paris agreement, which says we are going to

00:13:08.580 do our bit to reduce emissions. So if you are, if you believe in honoring your commitments and you

00:13:14.580 believe in reducing emissions, this is the best way to do it, but it's political kryptonite. And

00:13:21.060 everybody's recognized that from, from the NDP to Mark Carney, that this is just not sellable anymore.

00:13:26.500 So it would not surprise me if Trudeau's ultimate reversal and ultimate campaigning against himself

00:13:34.340 would be at some point to pause that, if not scrap it entirely. Well, I think it'd be incredibly

00:13:42.340 difficult for them to scrap it, perhaps pause. But this is a government that, although I was about to

00:13:50.260 say they've attacked anyone who's been against this policy, but they, they had previously called

00:13:54.900 anyone who advocated the policy that they announced on immigration, a racist and anti-immigrant. Uh,

00:14:01.620 so maybe they could turn around and go towards a policy that they had previously said, if you don't

00:14:07.140 believe in this, then you don't believe in climate change and you want the planet to burn. It was just

00:14:12.980 a week or so ago, they were saying that if you don't have a carbon tax, you can't trade. And I thought,

00:14:17.860 our biggest trading partner doesn't have a carbon tax. And by the way, their emissions are actually

00:14:22.020 headed in the right direction. So there's more than one way to deal with it. And they've said,

00:14:27.300 if you don't do it our way, you're against the planet. And so for them to reverse it, they would

00:14:33.860 be going in the direction that they had previously denounced.

00:14:37.380 But Trudeau was the guy who, who faithfully, in my opinion, undermined the integrity of

00:14:43.220 the consumer carbon tax when he exempted home heating fuels for political reasons.

00:14:47.700 Oh, absolutely.

00:14:48.820 If you could, if you can do that, then why can't you then extend, uh, a pause or exemption

00:14:56.900 for all other fuels for a period of time for political reasons? I, I, the logic suggests that

00:15:04.500 you could do exactly that.

00:15:05.540 The, do you think that that would be enough to turn the liberal fortunes around? Um, you and I have

00:15:14.660 been around the game long enough to know that a week's a long time in politics, uh, uh, a year is

00:15:21.140 an eternity. So if we were to make it to next year, I've long said, you know, conservatives would be

00:15:26.980 foolish to think that the polls that they have now will be the polls they have come election time.

00:15:31.140 Uh, and in my discussions with, uh, people like Pierre Polyev and Jenny Byrne, they say they 0.96

00:15:36.900 understand that, but is this enough to turn it around or is our Trudeau and his team at the point

00:15:44.420 that all governments will eventually get to, which is that voters are tired of you. They're sick of

00:15:49.300 your face.

00:15:49.780 Yeah. I think that's right. I think, um, all the polling history suggests that when you're 20

00:15:58.180 points behind and the time for change number is at 70, 80, even upwards of 80%, then you're just tuned

00:16:10.100 out. I mean, I think the liberal party as a brand could stage a recovery by concentrating on

00:16:18.900 um, the services that, that they might claim Poiliev will kill from pharmacare to dental care to

00:16:30.420 daycare, whatever. I mean, the polls suggest people like those social services, particularly

00:16:36.660 dental care and daycare, and that if you kill them, that's not going to be popular. And I think

00:16:42.980 Poiliev, they're obviously looking at that polling and suggested thinking, you know, what can we keep,

00:16:47.460 what can we get rid of? Um, but it's a different matter when it's Trudeau saying it. And I remember

00:16:55.460 Tom Flanagan, the political scientist many years ago saying that, um, attacks from politicians

00:17:02.980 are discounted by voters if the source of the attack is less popular than the target. And that's

00:17:10.420 absolutely the case right now. And so, so whatever Trudeau says, it seems to be is tuned out by the

00:17:16.180 electorate. So even when he's making points that I think should be scoring with, with voters who are

00:17:22.340 concerned about some of these social programs and, and there's no doubt if you look at the numbers,

00:17:27.860 um, it would be very hard for Poiliev to do all that the liberals are doing, balance the budget, and spend

00:17:36.260 another 20 billion or so on defense, which I think he's committed to. So something's got to give

00:17:44.820 somewhere. And, uh, I think that are, there's a legitimate avenue for the, for the liberals, but not

00:17:53.060 for Trudeau. So it would have to be a, a, a different messenger. The, the thing though, is,

00:18:01.300 you know, we had a story the other day, uh, about the expansion of the executive ranks.

00:18:07.780 They've gone up by 42% since Trudeau took office. Um, the, in the public service,

00:18:14.100 just of the executive ranks of the public service. Yes. And then the, the greater public service,

00:18:18.260 it's up what 41 or 43% in that range. Uh, the amount of services that we get from government

00:18:25.700 is not up by that much. Um, that's well above inflation. That's well above inflation and

00:18:29.940 population growth. Uh, so there is a bloat that I think could be cut without damaging any services

00:18:37.860 that Canadians actually want from their government. Uh, but I, I, I think that that would still lead to

00:18:43.700 a big fight. Um, you know, you, you could trim absolutely trim the civil service, especially

00:18:50.020 in Ottawa and no one would notice except those getting laid off, but that would lead to an awful

00:18:56.420 lot of C conservatives cut, uh, conservative parties cut. You can't trust them. There would be a big

00:19:00.820 fight. I mean, this is the whole reason that, that Doug Ford is contemplating an early election in

00:19:05.620 Ontario. He doesn't want the headache of going to his own voters in the middle of a bunch of

00:19:11.140 Polyev budget cuts. Uh, so, uh, would Polyev be able to, to find that and survive and, and still

00:19:18.260 deliver those services? Cause I think you're right. Cutting seniors dental care will not be popular.

00:19:24.100 Well, I think, uh, you know, you start a new government with a, with a bank of political capital

00:19:30.900 and you decide what you're going to spend it on. And, you know, there's no doubt that they're

00:19:37.060 going to cut consultancy spending, for example, which is $20 billion. So you could probably

00:19:42.180 make a lot, save a lot of money there. Cutting the bureaucracy, um,

00:19:47.380 sounds great. And everybody does it. Everybody says they're going to do some of it, except

00:19:52.260 obviously the Trudeau government, which has added, uh, you know, gazillions to, but actually doing it,

00:19:59.060 I mean, you're taking on the public sector unions. It is a big fight. And is that where you want to

00:20:06.340 spend your capital in your first year in government? I'm not sure that that is going to be

00:20:13.300 the principal target when they, when they come in. Um, I mean, pharma care has not really rolled

00:20:20.260 out yet. That's a, probably a good one to, to, uh, to stop in its tracks.

00:20:24.660 Well, they don't, they don't have any deals with the provinces. Dental care is set up.

00:20:30.180 Right. Right. Dental care is set up. I think they, and, and, and I remember I talked to Ken

00:20:34.180 Bozenkuhl, uh, quite recently, former Harper advisor. And he said, it's a kind of interesting

00:20:38.980 model, dental care. It's kind of, um, it's kind of a public-private hybrid. Um, and that might appeal

00:20:47.060 to some conservatives. You know, you've essentially got private provision of, of, uh, of a public

00:20:54.020 program. So they could probably rationalize that and keep it. I think they'd be kind of

00:20:59.380 mad to, to kill that in their first year. If they were smart, they would cut deals with the 0.61

00:21:06.740 provincial programs that already exist because the, the, the problem I've heard from dentists

00:21:12.420 and dental associations is that the federal government duplicated a program that the provinces

00:21:18.100 have, and they've made it more cumbersome and more difficult to administer. Uh, so,

00:21:23.860 okay, get rid of the administration side, partner with the provinces.

00:21:29.060 The, the, the costs are, you know, down significantly.

00:21:33.460 Yeah. I mean, I, I'm sure people do not care who's providing

00:21:36.340 the service or who's even paying for it as long as the service is, is, is maintained. I mean,

00:21:42.580 taking things away is hard. Taking things away that people are used to is hard. So,

00:21:47.860 so, uh, yeah, let me, where he finds the money is, is, is, um, is not clear, but I, but I don't think

00:21:56.740 they could possibly do all the things that they've pretty much said they're going to do without

00:22:02.100 making some pretty major cuts. And that is an avenue for the liberals.

00:22:05.060 Let me, uh, close this segment, uh, and we'll come back after a break and talk about

00:22:09.700 where the liberals go from here. But let, let me close this segment by asking you,

00:22:16.740 does Pierre Polyev keep his promise to defund CBC English or does he walk away from that?

00:22:27.140 I don't think there's any way he can walk away from that. I mean, that has been a,

00:22:30.820 a constant since he, uh, declared his interest in the leadership. I think by conviction,

00:22:38.740 he wants it done. Now how, how exactly it would look, whether it would be fully defunding it,

00:22:43.220 I don't know, but it, it, it seems to be that that one is extremely popular with the base

00:22:48.500 and you just can't mess with it. And even when you look at polling outside of conservatives,

00:22:52.660 there are an awful lot of people who say, we don't need it anymore. It's a different world.

00:22:57.140 Yeah, I don't, I can't disagree with that.

00:23:01.620 So that will be interesting. We have to take a quick break, but when we come back,

00:23:05.300 we will talk about where the liberal party goes from here. Is there a path forward for them?

00:23:09.380 The absolute paralyzation of parliament and who are the contenders to replace Justin Trudeau?

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00:25:00.820 Since the beginning of October, the House of Commons actually hasn't done anything, except debate their own existence, their own privilege.

00:25:21.300 There's been no government business going on.

00:25:23.620 The House is actually paralyzed.

00:25:25.220 It's an issue that I don't think has gotten enough attention.

00:25:28.900 John, I know that you've said to me that you don't spend a lot of time focused on the House,

00:25:34.100 but what does it tell you that the Trudeau government can't actually even move forward their ways and means motion to change the capital gains tax,

00:25:42.580 because they have to spend all the time talking about the privilege being breached,

00:25:47.140 because they won't hand over documents in this so-called green slush fund scandal?

00:25:53.060 Yeah, I think for most Canadians, this will just be a lot of noise.

00:25:59.380 They pay three seconds a week to what goes on in politics, less to what goes on in Parliament.

00:26:08.900 It is a sign of the times that it's completely dysfunctional.

00:26:12.020 In some ways, it hardly matters because the government's legislative agenda is so thin, there's very little out there that is still outstanding,

00:26:25.380 which would mean that a prorogation would not be disastrous from the government's point of view.

00:26:31.700 They don't have a lot of legislation that would then have to start all over again.

00:26:35.460 They would just be hammered for coming back on September 16th and five, six weeks later.

00:26:41.700 You know, it would be portrayed as you don't want to work.

00:26:44.900 Right. But at the same time, from the government's point of view, you forestall confidence motions.

00:26:51.300 And, you know, I mean, any day when Parliament is sitting is not a good day for the government.

00:26:56.980 It essentially gives the operation the platform to hammer them in question period.

00:27:01.860 So you've got to weigh the pros and the cons.

00:27:04.660 I mean, obviously, there are there are still things like the capital gains tax that are still pending.

00:27:12.100 So that would be a consideration.

00:27:14.180 But, you know, I think it's almost inconceivable to me that we could stagger on for another almost another year before an election in this mode.

00:27:26.980 So, you know, for people that don't follow that closely, the House of Commons voted and demanded that the government hand over documents in the sustainable technology fund, the green slush fund.

00:27:40.420 They refused. They've given some documents.

00:27:42.900 They've withheld others. They've redacted lots.

00:27:44.980 And and so the speaker ruled you've got to give them and Parliament has the right to vote to demand them and the government just refused.

00:27:52.660 Once they deal with that, John, they then have to deal with the second question of privilege, which is Randy Boissoneau and the other Randy that was doing business with his old business partner while he's in cabinet.

00:28:05.140 And that business that he was a part of was doing business with the government.

00:28:09.940 So, I mean, I don't know how they don't just stop it all and and try and shut things down.

00:28:15.940 Well, they may well do. They may well do.

00:28:19.380 We've got a fiscal update coming at some point, but I don't think the government can afford to spend much more money and maintain the targets that it set in the last budget.

00:28:28.420 So it's a real mess. And it does feel like the end of days, you know, I mean, logically, parties don't go to an election if it's not in their interests, i.e. the polling isn't working for them.

00:28:45.540 And if they're short of cash, then I think in both those cases, there's not a convincing case yet for the NDP.

00:28:53.380 The prorogation is something they probably should have done back in June.

00:28:57.800 I just talked to some very smart liberals who say they don't understand why their party didn't do that.

00:29:03.160 You know, the House came to an end of the spring session in June.

00:29:08.120 They could have prorogued the House then and said, we'll be back in the middle of September, come back at the same time.

00:29:13.680 But that would have shut down the House committees that spent all summer just dragging up more clips for social media on the government's problems with a rive can, with the Green Slush Fund, with all of these things, just causing more headaches.

00:29:30.280 They didn't do that. They didn't come back with a new agenda.

00:29:33.460 It really feels like Justin Trudeau and Katie Telford and the rest of the brain trust are out of ideas and out of gas.

00:29:40.480 I think that's absolutely right. I mean, your point about Parliament being a kind of backdrop for social media content, I mean, I think that's what it's become.

00:29:51.100 It's rarely engaging. There's not, I mean, there's no real debate.

00:29:57.780 It's just people thinking about clips.

00:30:00.540 And very rarely are those clips favourable to the government.

00:30:06.520 So, yeah, I'm equally bamboozled.

00:30:10.500 I mean, when you do things like prorogation, as Harper did in 2008, you take heat for it for a few days and then people forget all about it.

00:30:19.040 And generally, it seems to me, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages for the government.

00:30:23.740 So, if they had proroged in June and said, we'll be back in September with the speech from the throne, that's not shutting down early.

00:30:29.740 And that's a fairly standard way of doing prorogation.

00:30:34.600 And Trudeau had previously shut down to avoid the We Charity scandal.

00:30:39.820 Yep.

00:30:40.000 And he only took a little bit of heat from that.

00:30:43.940 I think in this case, though, I think he would take more heat.

00:30:48.000 Well, he could turn around and say, look, the opposition have combined to make, to mean that we can't get anything done.

00:30:54.920 I mean, essentially, that was his excuse for an election.

00:30:59.060 I guess the 2021 election.

00:31:01.120 You know, that Parliament was dysfunctional.

00:31:03.840 Well, Parliament has never been more dysfunctional than it is right now.

00:31:07.700 Well, one of the...

00:31:10.000 The words that I got coming out of the Liberal Caucus meeting last week was, you know, in addition to the whole coup thing,

00:31:16.200 was one of the instructions given to Liberal MPs was, go forward and filibust at committee.

00:31:22.420 So, you know, the thinking is, make it seem even more dysfunctional so that they have no choice but to shut down.

00:31:30.460 Yeah.

00:31:30.580 Well, again, I mean, that might be where we end up.

00:31:33.500 But it's intriguing to me that before Parliament returned, Jagmeet Singh made great play about ripping up this agreement with the Liberals.

00:31:43.840 And yet, they have been joined at the hip ever since.

00:31:47.840 I mean, in committees, they work in concert.

00:31:50.080 On votes, they work in concert.

00:31:51.700 But it's as if it didn't happen.

00:31:54.200 You may recall that several journalists, myself included, tried to ask Jagmeet Singh,

00:32:00.400 is it more than two dozen times at that news conference?

00:32:04.400 Right.

00:32:04.620 Does that mean you don't have confidence?

00:32:07.240 And he refused to say.

00:32:08.480 He just, he tried to dodge it.

00:32:11.280 You've written extensively on Canada's relationship with India and how the Trudeau government has dealt with this issue.

00:32:18.740 And you've even said that it looks like they're trying to set up for a national security election.

00:32:25.740 Do you think that's what part of this whole peer poly of won't get a security clearance issue is all about?

00:32:31.900 I think it's a ridiculous argument saying he's got to get a security clearance and see what we know.

00:32:39.700 Because Trudeau hasn't acted.

00:32:41.540 Jagmeet Singh hasn't acted.

00:32:43.220 Nothing's changed and they've read the report.

00:32:45.680 I don't believe that anything would change if Polly ever read the report.

00:32:49.040 You're not allowed to act on the information.

00:32:50.760 But do you think the combination of this attack against Polly Eve and the way that Trudeau's handling India is all about a narrative for whenever the next election is?

00:33:06.820 Well, I think everything in the Trudeau government is about a narrative.

00:33:09.120 The idea of a national security election was Wesley Wark, the academic, wasn't my own thought.

00:33:23.100 And I'm not sure it would be.

00:33:24.140 I think it would be a carbon tax election, not a national security election.

00:33:27.720 Well, we know Polly Eve wants a carbon tax election. 1.00

00:33:29.860 He said so, you know, even in response to Trudeau's immigration changes.

00:33:34.260 Yeah, I think Trudeau wouldn't mind the focus being on leadership.

00:33:42.000 And in this case, he's pointing to the fact that Polly Eve has not got the clearance.

00:33:48.380 I think if I was Polly Eve, I would get the clearance and that just takes it off the table.

00:33:53.480 Not entirely clear to me why he doesn't get it.

00:33:55.380 Because I think many people do get security clearance and are still able to talk about sensitive issues.

00:34:07.140 I mean, Trudeau, as it turns out, Trudeau didn't get security clearance.

00:34:12.000 He just became prime minister and got it automatically.

00:34:14.220 Yeah, you don't go through a screening process when you're prime minister.

00:34:17.700 Which is kind of crazy.

00:34:20.600 But yet he still managed to speak at the Foreign Interference Commission or inquiry about sensitive issues.

00:34:29.200 In fact, he disclosed what he and Modi talked about.

00:34:32.900 I mean, what could be more damaging to national security than disclosing what you talked about in private with another world leader?

00:34:42.240 You know, I do think that he is using this as a distraction.

00:34:49.560 I think the Liberal government's policies on India over the last nine years have contributed to where we are.

00:34:58.240 Although I do recognize you can't have foreign agents running amok in your country, killing citizens and not act on it.

00:35:06.260 But I just think the way that Joe Biden has handled it in the States and the way that the law enforcement in the United States has handled it is much better advised than what Trudeau has done, standing up in the House of Commons and making a political issue out of it.

00:35:22.080 So Joe Biden and the Biden administration, they've laid charges.

00:35:27.040 Somebody is facing charges over what's happened in Canada.

00:35:30.500 And the indictment was unsealed last week and it is grim reading.

00:35:34.300 I mean, that's how you do it.

00:35:35.180 You arrest the people and then you make public the evidence.

00:35:40.480 We've done it precisely the opposite direction.

00:35:43.440 And then when Trudeau was on the stand at the Hogue Commission, the Foreign Interference Commission, he admitted that he made the accusation before he had evidence.

00:35:52.680 He said, well, we had intelligence, but it wasn't evidence yet.

00:35:55.880 And yet you're making this grand pronouncement against an ally.

00:36:00.920 It's obviously one that he wants to campaign against.

00:36:03.340 I find this so perplexing and so bothersome.

00:36:07.340 That Indian domestic politics is now Canadian domestic politics. 0.95

00:36:12.100 That Justin Trudeau feels that the best way for him to stay in power is to pitch at the Sikh community.

00:36:21.340 And in particular, the small bit that is very motivated by the Khalistan movement and campaign against a foreign prime minister who is not well liked by the Sikh community.

00:36:34.380 And I get the Modi runs a Hindu nationalist government.

00:36:38.100 I get there's problems with that.

00:36:39.600 But you're bringing in India's domestic problems to Canadian domestic politics, and it's not going so well.

00:36:47.100 I mean, it is, you used the word perplexing.

00:36:51.860 I'm perplexed at how last week went that, you know, we go through Thanksgiving and then suddenly the Mounties have a press conference.

00:37:04.820 Without revealing the evidence, they say they're trying to break this chain of violence, which I'm sure is real.

00:37:14.540 But the timing of the RCMP press conference without putting out the evidence was perplexing to me.

00:37:25.320 And then two or three days later, there's Trudeau on the stand.

00:37:28.960 He's completely changed the channel from this internal coup.

00:37:33.080 And he's now on the attack about foreign interference in the Conservative caucus, about the leader not having security clearance, and is trying to shape the election question about leadership.

00:37:49.140 He completely used a very serious issue, the Foreign Interference Commission, as a wedge.

00:37:56.260 He threw all kinds of attacks at Pierre Polyev while testifying.

00:38:04.440 He came out immediately after the RCMP press conference on Thanksgiving Day to give his own.

00:38:11.000 While he's on the stand at the Hogue Commission, he calls those who leaked information about China's foreign interference criminals.

00:38:17.320 And then a day or two later, we find out that, oh, the Trudeau government actually gave all this information that they have never made public to the Washington Post in a secret briefing so that they would have the information out there and try and move forward their agenda.

00:38:35.440 I think there's no doubt that the Trudeau government has used this whole issue as a political wedge.

00:38:42.440 I mean, people should go back and look at the tape.

00:38:44.960 And he was asked about, Commissioner Council asked him about other parties.

00:38:54.300 And then when he said, well, I don't like to use, to talk, to use the inquiry for partisan purposes.

00:39:00.260 And then.

00:39:00.580 And she basically said, okay, well, let's move on.

00:39:04.220 And he went, well, having said that, there are a number of Conservatives who have essentially colluded with foreign powers.

00:39:12.160 And then he went on his rant.

00:39:13.660 And it amazed me that neither Justice Hogue nor the council stopped him and said, look, this is not the purpose of this commission.

00:39:22.340 It was a rant that went on for more than five minutes.

00:39:26.720 And I forget the exact time, five minutes, 30, five minutes, 40 seconds.

00:39:30.960 It was long.

00:39:31.660 And at the start, the way he used his language was very precise, where he said, and or, and or, and or.

00:39:41.840 So he lumped together people who may have been involved in foreign interference, the witting or unwitting participants, with people who were the targets, like Michael Chong.

00:39:50.600 He lumped them all into one group, made it sound really big, and then went on to diatribe.

00:39:56.020 And you're right.

00:39:56.500 Nobody said, well, come on.

00:39:59.040 This is not question, period.

00:40:01.560 Yeah.

00:40:02.020 No, I thought it was pretty unconscionable.

00:40:05.500 I just want to clarify, by the way, because I wrote all this.

00:40:08.460 And the abuse was unbelievable, like traitor.

00:40:12.400 Are you getting paid by the Indians? 0.92

00:40:13.940 I just want to say, categorically, Canada cannot allow what's been going on, which is essentially that the Indian intelligence agencies have been hiring assassins to kill people in Canada.

00:40:29.120 No, that is the charge which was in the U.S. indictment.

00:40:34.120 And I think when the RCMP has finished compiling its case, it will present and make public as much as it can about what happened in Canada.

00:40:45.060 And that is the starting point for us to engage with the Indians.

00:40:50.060 Stop this, acknowledge it, and then we can talk about things like deporting potential criminals.

00:40:57.600 I think the Indians are very touchy because they feel that they're some kind of colonial. 1.00

00:41:00.720 They've got some kind of, it's almost an inferiority complex.

00:41:05.600 And they feel that the developing countries are basically just ordering them around. 0.82

00:41:11.340 Sorry, the developed countries are ordering them around. 0.98

00:41:14.180 And they point to the 26 people they want deported.

00:41:18.980 Why won't you just deport them?

00:41:20.260 Well, there are human rights considerations.

00:41:23.660 India has not signed the Convention on Torture.

00:41:27.240 Sorry, let me clarify.

00:41:28.320 It has signed, it hasn't ratified.

00:41:30.720 And we should be looking at, you know, we in general, the Supreme Court has reiterated the idea that we should be deporting people who are charged in other countries.

00:41:42.020 But that follows on from the point where India stops murdering Canadians in Canada. 0.53

00:41:50.220 Two things can be true at once.

00:41:52.340 We have to stop what the Indian government is doing. 1.00

00:41:55.400 But the Trudeau liberals have also been playing footsies with questionable elements in the Calistani movement to boost their own electoral fortunes.

00:42:07.580 And, you know, Modi's response, I said that the Calistani movement is a small subset within the Sikh community in Canada.

00:42:16.220 But Modi's fight with Trudeau, the wider Sikh community does have some sympathy for Trudeau pushing back against Modi.

00:42:26.480 I mean, on that point about, you know, not all Sikhs are on site with the Calistani movement.

00:42:33.940 I mean, I talked to Uj al-Dusansh, who was a liberal health minister, former premier of British Columbia, who is Sikh.

00:42:41.640 He said we could have, just after Harper left, this relationship was still in great shape.

00:42:48.300 And we could have grown it, and we've blown it.

00:42:52.920 He said, essentially, you know, that there's a small minority of Calistanis who control the temples and the funding of the temples, which is then rebated to the Liberal Party, and direct people how to vote, essentially.

00:43:06.640 And he says this has been known to the Liberal Party, and they have essentially turned a blind eye to it.

00:43:15.940 What would you say is the future of the Liberal Party after Justin Trudeau leaves?

00:43:23.260 He has changed it from a party that was the most successful in Western democracies into a movement.

00:43:34.120 I don't think it's too strong to say that it is, in ways, a cult of personality.

00:43:41.540 The entire party is built around him, and he does call it a movement now.

00:43:46.820 You don't have to sign up a membership form.

00:43:49.380 You don't have to pay money to join.

00:43:52.280 It's a very different party than it was before.

00:43:55.880 And there were some changes to the leadership rules that have folks worried about what comes next.

00:44:01.140 Does Melanie Jolie campaign just on the issue of Gaza as a way to win, 0.89

00:44:06.060 and bring in a pile of new people that are single-issue voters on that?

00:44:11.140 Does the Liberal Party become stronger if Trudeau leaves in the next little while,

00:44:15.860 or are they at risk of becoming weaker?

00:44:20.340 I think they undoubtedly become stronger.

00:44:22.200 He was elected on a mandate of protecting the interests of the middle classes.

00:44:39.200 Those working hard to join it.

00:44:41.320 Those working hard to join it.

00:44:43.320 I mean, you know when you've been successful with a mantra where people repeat it.

00:44:48.200 Although it's boring to the press gallery, you hear it 10 times a day.

00:44:54.320 But at some point during the mandate, the focus shifted to interest groups and interest politics.

00:45:04.680 And I think he divined that he could keep winning elections if he just kept moving further and further left.

00:45:14.240 And I think in doing that, he left behind the median voter.

00:45:19.480 Now there's this theorem, the political science theorem, the median voter theorem.

00:45:25.280 And essentially it says you can't do that.

00:45:27.200 You can't just keep moving further and further from the median voter.

00:45:30.440 And I think on taxation issues and a whole bunch of other issues, he has ignored that and just followed what he's convinced is right, in inverted commas.

00:45:45.760 And I think what we're seeing is a rejection of that by the electorate.

00:45:52.160 And anybody who follows him, who continues down that path, is not going to be successful.

00:45:59.900 And that includes, I think, Chrystia Freeland.

00:46:02.100 And I think it includes Melanie Jolie.

00:46:04.160 I mean, appealing to people who support the people of Gaza is not a winning strategy.

00:46:15.620 You look at the polls.

00:46:16.460 Canadians are completely divided.

00:46:17.880 Let me throw out the names at you and get you a quick analysis of some of the potential leadership candidates.

00:46:26.200 And we'll start.

00:46:26.760 Melanie Jolie.

00:46:29.620 I think there's a constituency for her. 1.00

00:46:31.600 She's a Quebecer.

00:46:32.460 She's a female. 1.00

00:46:33.180 I mean, I do think there's a feeling that the next liberal leader should be a woman, which I think is exactly wrong.

00:46:40.220 It should be whoever the best candidate is, not necessarily a Quebecer or a woman or any other qualification other than on merit.

00:46:50.420 But there is a lot of noise being made for her right now.

00:46:55.160 And she seems to be auditioning for the part with her stance on Israel because…

00:47:02.140 And she remains popular in Quebec.

00:47:04.500 Yeah.

00:47:04.800 Brian, look at the demographics in her writing.

00:47:06.980 Yes.

00:47:07.320 As she told Tom Mulcair.

00:47:10.860 Chrystia Freeland, is she too close to the centre right now, too close to what Canadians are fed up with?

00:47:19.460 I think so.

00:47:20.160 I mean, how can you…

00:47:21.320 I mean, we've seen this down the years when another leader, you know, essentially the second in command,

00:47:27.560 steps up and claims it's not the 10th year of a Trudeau government, it's the first year of a Freeland government, you know, from Gordon Brown to even Paul Martin.

00:47:41.080 I mean, that just has not worked.

00:47:42.580 And I just can't imagine how she could disassociate herself from all the policies that people are fed up with to claim, well, that was nothing to do with me. 0.97

00:47:52.320 I mean, it's kind of what Kamala Harris is facing at the moment in the US.

00:47:58.960 Mark Carney, smart guy in my view, difficult communicating with the average median voter.

00:48:04.800 Yeah, I guess people would say that.

00:48:09.640 I mean, I know him and I think he's got more of that than people might give him credit for.

00:48:14.560 I mean, the easy and kind of lazy analogy is Michael Ignatieff.

00:48:17.860 I think he's got more common, like a more common streak to him than, and is more political than Ignatieff.

00:48:28.660 But, you know, there's no doubt he's a technocrat and that might be a turnoff for a lot of Canadians.

00:48:36.140 I do think, though, he would bring the party back to the centre, which is where it needs to be.

00:48:42.680 Christy Clark is someone that I think would bring the party back to the centre as well.

00:48:46.960 She said that she's interested, but my question about her is, is the party and the membership still in the centre?

00:48:56.880 Or would she be someone who couldn't find a home in the Liberal Party of now?

00:49:03.160 Well, I think, you know, leaders lead.

00:49:06.260 Otherwise, if you don't have followers, you're just a man or a woman going for a walk.

00:49:11.160 And I think there is still a constituency of Liberals who are fed up with the way that things have gone.

00:49:20.780 I feel it's moved too far left and it's too much about interest groups and minority rights and some of these other things.

00:49:27.660 So, from that point of view, she fits the bill.

00:49:34.560 She doesn't speak very good French, I don't think.

00:49:36.620 She's been in Jean-Quierre learning up in the Saguenay.

00:49:40.900 But I was in Jean-Quierre up in the Saguenay learning French and it didn't take.

00:49:46.040 So, if you can't speak French, you can't lead this country.

00:49:50.760 And if you haven't heard French with a Scottish accent, I can tell you it's great to listen to.

00:49:56.920 Maybe not from you, apparently it didn't take, but it does work.

00:50:01.300 It's hard.

00:50:01.640 Although, it's funny, it always amuses me that at least two of the translators, one of the official translators on CPAC are both Scottish.

00:50:08.800 Yes, yes.

00:50:10.040 And lovely to listen to.

00:50:12.000 Do you see anybody else out there?

00:50:13.480 Once upon a time, I had thought Francois-Philippe Champagne, a.k.a. Frankie Bubbles, was a good contender.

00:50:19.280 I'm not sure anymore.

00:50:21.540 Do you see him or anybody else being in the mix?

00:50:25.260 Yeah, I think Francois is a very able communicator.

00:50:27.820 He's relentlessly optimistic.

00:50:31.440 I think he's done some good things.

00:50:32.980 I mean, you can argue about the subsidies being paid for some of these big car plants, but there's no doubt he's established an industry here.

00:50:42.980 People always say, you know, bring up, well, electric vehicles are just not going to take off.

00:50:46.980 Well, go and tell that to Tesla shareholders.

00:50:51.800 I mean, the sales or GM shareholders, they've seen soaring electric vehicle numbers.

00:50:58.020 So, you know, he should not be counted out.

00:51:01.420 I don't know whether he and Carney would both run, for example.

00:51:05.640 I think they'd be going after the same voters.

00:51:07.480 But he's a Quebecer.

00:51:08.480 He's very able.

00:51:11.360 He's extremely likable.

00:51:13.380 I mean, you know, clearly I'm biased.

00:51:15.660 I'm not the typical liberal voter.

00:51:19.100 I think if they go even further leftward, they're going down a dead end.

00:51:25.440 But to me, Champagne or Carney or even Christy Clark would be more realistic candidates, people who would take the Liberal Party back to where it needs to be.

00:51:36.820 And especially if Poilievre doesn't moderate some of these positions and feels that he has to appeal to the base.

00:51:46.180 And then there's a swathe of red Tories and centrists who feel that they're not being catered to by the incoming government.

00:51:54.600 I mean, that's an opportunity for the Liberal Party.

00:51:56.800 Of course, if the Liberals go further left, Poilievre could do what Doug Ford has done and take over all that real estate by appealing to middle-of-the-road voters.

00:52:07.480 Well, I think he's kind of done that already.

00:52:09.640 But I don't think that that vote is solid for him.

00:52:12.800 And if there was another Liberal leader, he might find that some of it disappears.

00:52:18.600 John, great talking to you as always.

00:52:20.300 Thanks for the insight.

00:52:22.200 Great.

00:52:22.740 All the best, Brian.

00:52:23.220 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:52:25.820 I'm Brian Lilly, your host.

00:52:27.060 This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:52:30.860 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:52:33.220 Make sure you subscribe to Full Comment on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, what have you.

00:52:38.140 Help us out by giving us a rating or leaving a review and tell your friends about us.

00:52:42.140 Thanks for listening.

00:52:43.020 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

Full Comment - October 28, 2024

Trudeau survived. He’s still screwed.

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