Full Comment - July 14, 2025


We have no idea what our federal leaders stand for anymore


Episode Stats

Length

55 minutes

Words per Minute

179.88248

Word Count

9,918

Sentence Count

640

Misogynist Sentences

8

Hate Speech Sentences

11


Summary

Ginny Roth and Warren Kinsella join me to talk about what's going on in Canadian politics right now, and why we should all be worried about Donald Trump's new trade deal with Mexico and the United States.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Bank more encores when you switch to a Scotiabank banking package.
00:00:07.160 Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages.
00:00:10.840 Conditions apply.
00:00:12.720 Scotiabank. You're richer than you think.
00:00:19.020 Donald Trump is threatening new tariffs.
00:00:21.200 Mark Carney doesn't know whether to put his elbows up or down.
00:00:23.960 He's promising spending cuts and staffing cuts at the federal government level, though.
00:00:28.440 And, well, griping about Pierre Polyev at the Calgary Stampede.
00:00:32.760 Nothing is boring in Canadian politics these days.
00:00:35.680 Hello. Welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.
00:00:37.720 I'm Brian Lilly, your host.
00:00:39.340 Today, a sit-down with two wise politicos, people who have worked on campaigns across the country,
00:00:45.280 advised people at the highest levels.
00:00:47.600 Ginny Roth is a partner at Crestview Strategy.
00:00:50.640 She is a former assistant at the Ontario Legislature, Queen's Park,
00:00:54.680 and has worked at campaigns at the national level with the Federal Conservative Party
00:00:58.580 and a strong defender of Pierre Polyev.
00:01:01.400 Warren Kinsella is a pundit, a columnist with the Toronto Sun.
00:01:05.500 He hosts the Kinsella cast and is founder of the Daisy Group.
00:01:08.740 He also, once upon a time, worked for Jean Chrétien.
00:01:11.280 And while he wasn't a fan of the Trudeau guys, still kind of a liberal.
00:01:16.080 We sat down to have a discussion about where things are in Canadian politics,
00:01:19.620 what the future looks like for Carney and for Polyev.
00:01:23.520 Okay, Ginny, Warren, I guess we have to start with letters,
00:01:27.420 because world leaders are getting letters, or they're at least seeing letters posted to Truth Social.
00:01:33.200 We'll start with you, Ginny.
00:01:35.440 Your reaction to Trump late on a Thursday night, I think it was after 8 p.m.
00:01:40.560 It's not super late, but late in, you know, the world of diplomacy.
00:01:44.480 A letter released to Mark Carney saying,
00:01:47.940 you're not doing enough on fentanyl, you stink on dairy,
00:01:51.520 don't dare retaliate to my 35% tariffs, or I'll hit you even harder.
00:01:56.200 What do you even do with this?
00:01:59.120 Well, I think this would have been surprising, you know, in January or something,
00:02:03.420 but now we're all kind of used to this, like it's just par for the course.
00:02:07.660 And I think it's all part of Trump's negotiation and his negotiating style.
00:02:11.980 Like, he likes to play hardball and see how much he can get away with.
00:02:16.000 And this is his latest volley.
00:02:18.280 I hope we don't overreact to it.
00:02:20.040 I think in the early days of the to and fro, we did overreact.
00:02:25.300 And I think all we can do now is continue the negotiations in the background.
00:02:30.260 I'm hopeful that some of the stuff that I'm opposed to on domestic grounds,
00:02:34.800 like the digital sales tax that we took off the table,
00:02:38.380 that this might be some excuse to drop some, you know, supply management,
00:02:43.640 some of our ridiculous trade practices.
00:02:47.000 But the negotiators just have to stay focused.
00:02:50.460 And we have to accept that that market is 10 times the size of ours,
00:02:54.480 and we really can't do without it.
00:02:55.760 You know, the impact of Canada's exports to the United States is about 19% of our GDP.
00:03:03.800 The impact of American exports to Canada is 1.7% of theirs.
00:03:08.480 So, Warren, you've had many thoughts online on X about Donald Trump's letters.
00:03:16.980 Try and sum them up here.
00:03:18.380 Well, this will only take three hours.
00:03:23.080 I am going to surprise both of you, I think.
00:03:28.040 I'm not going to be critical of Donald Trump.
00:03:30.740 I believe that Donald Trump is doing what he said he was going to do.
00:03:34.900 Donald Trump has never been a free trader.
00:03:37.440 Donald Trump, in his inaugural speech in January, said he was going to do this.
00:03:44.000 And then 10 days later, he did it to Canada and Mexico with this bullshit fentanyl claim
00:03:49.440 in order to, you know, step outside the terms of the USMCA.
00:03:54.760 So, he's doing what he's always said he was going to do.
00:03:58.000 I, you know, and I don't think any of us should be surprised by that.
00:04:01.800 What I'm surprised by is Mark Carney.
00:04:05.040 I don't understand why he believes that Donald Trump is going to change his position
00:04:10.460 or change his behavior or change his strategy or approach.
00:04:15.060 This is what Trump has been doing for months.
00:04:17.900 And Carney seems to be clinging to this belief that he can somehow magically transform Trump's
00:04:25.360 approach, Trump's attitude, and craft a new deal that will be respected until the end of time.
00:04:32.080 I don't get it.
00:04:33.220 I think it's a waste of time to try and do a new deal.
00:04:36.720 But here we are doing it.
00:04:37.860 Do you say that we just shouldn't be negotiating with them at all?
00:04:41.240 The Kuzma, USMCA, whatever you want to call it, has to be renegotiated.
00:04:46.960 You're saying we shouldn't be talking to them for a deal at all?
00:04:49.460 Why does it have to be renegotiated?
00:04:50.960 Because it came with a clause that says next year, it's up for review.
00:04:55.860 Okay.
00:04:56.200 So, we're trying.
00:04:57.180 We can do a pro forma.
00:04:58.400 We can send a junior assistant in there and to negotiate it.
00:05:01.720 But, I mean, like in the middle of it, he, you know, he's screwing around again.
00:05:05.640 If the only, you know, I've got to call him about this in post media this weekend, as you
00:05:10.020 know, Brian, the only thing I'll allow for here is a slightly Machiavellian move by the
00:05:16.760 prime minister to basically run out the clock and just basically do what you've described
00:05:23.140 a minute ago.
00:05:24.000 And meanwhile, devote himself to crafting deals with Europe and Asia and so on.
00:05:29.520 And, you know, so this is all bullshit.
00:05:31.900 This is just bullshit theater.
00:05:33.600 He doesn't expect to have a deal with the Americans, but he's giving us every indication
00:05:38.040 that he thinks that he could.
00:05:40.040 Well, Ginny, the UK has a deal.
00:05:44.100 Yeah, it's a high level deal.
00:05:45.620 It's 12 pages.
00:05:46.780 China has a deal.
00:05:48.500 It's not very long either.
00:05:50.000 That's what the Americans want right now.
00:05:51.660 They don't want a full renegotiation.
00:05:54.140 I was reporting before the G7 that we were close on having one and then things fell apart.
00:06:00.420 And, you know, what I'm hearing is that Ambassador Hillman, who, you know, is widely regarded and
00:06:07.200 well-respected, but that she's part of the problem because when the Americans want this
00:06:11.700 50,000 foot level deal, she wants to negotiate the details.
00:06:16.300 She wants to get into the weeds.
00:06:17.540 So, you know, I've described it as like sending in the accounting department to close a sale.
00:06:25.940 No, you send in your closer.
00:06:27.360 You send in a Dominic LeBlanc.
00:06:28.660 You don't send in the accounting team to get someone to sign that they're going to buy the
00:06:34.260 new car.
00:06:35.800 What's your view on how things are taking shape and how Carney is handling Trump?
00:06:41.840 Because, you know, the digital services tax, his handling of that, in my view, was just
00:06:46.500 a disaster.
00:06:48.000 Yeah.
00:06:48.320 You alluded to Starmer's deal, which I think they call a framework agreement or something
00:06:52.160 like that.
00:06:52.900 That, to my mind, is what Carney should be going for, both from both in terms of what
00:06:58.020 is good for Canada and also what he needs to do politically.
00:07:00.800 Like, let's not forget.
00:07:01.640 Because Starmer's not getting letters.
00:07:02.900 Yeah, and let's not forget this guy, like, Starmer was not elected with a mandate to deal
00:07:09.880 with Donald Trump.
00:07:10.900 Mark Carney was.
00:07:11.900 I mean, that became the question of our election.
00:07:13.600 That was the ballot question for every voter that voted for Carney, certainly in the Liberals.
00:07:17.720 So he has to deliver.
00:07:20.380 And a framework agreement seems way more viable and accessible to me than renegotiating, you
00:07:25.320 know, and dotting the I's and crossing the T's on a new Kuzma.
00:07:27.740 So I think that is the right approach.
00:07:30.300 I don't know if that's what they're doing.
00:07:32.020 I think Carney is a good dealmaker.
00:07:37.180 He's made a lot of deals in his life, which is why they got off on an OK foot, he and
00:07:41.480 Trump.
00:07:41.780 I think Trump sees that in him.
00:07:44.900 And he but he has to deliver.
00:07:47.220 And the other thing that I'm critical of when it comes to Carney and his politics is these
00:07:52.220 guys are really raising expectations.
00:07:53.760 They keep doing this.
00:07:54.660 Like, as you said, you reported at their at their based on their leaks and their sort
00:08:00.040 of proactive pushing, I think, for with with a lot of people in the media that they were
00:08:03.340 close to having a deal like they were telling people this and then it didn't work out.
00:08:06.420 And it really raised expectations.
00:08:07.780 I think people expected one.
00:08:09.200 And they're doing that on so many fronts, whether it's major projects, defense spending,
00:08:14.220 et cetera.
00:08:14.500 Like they they are not playing an expectation management game at all.
00:08:17.380 And I worry for their sake, politically, that they won't live up to some of the I'm sure
00:08:21.560 you're not too worried for them.
00:08:22.920 I'm, you know, given that might help the conservatives down the road if you can't deliver.
00:08:27.120 I'm a Canadian, too, though.
00:08:27.940 I want what's good for the country.
00:08:29.240 Yeah, we all want what's good for the country.
00:08:31.260 But Warren, let me ask you about the Carney's handling of the digital services tax.
00:08:36.220 I mean, this was the thing that liberals were telling me for weeks and weeks.
00:08:40.860 You know, you talk to most people and they say that thing's got to go.
00:08:44.720 It's a disaster.
00:08:47.160 Biden had threatened us on it.
00:08:50.280 Trump was threatening us on it.
00:08:52.140 And you talk to liberals and say, oh, we're holding on to that.
00:08:54.920 That's a that's a Trump card.
00:08:56.820 We're going to play that.
00:08:57.880 We're going to get something good for it.
00:08:59.460 And then the Friday before the tax is supposed to be implemented, the Americans say, can you
00:09:05.880 give us a 30 day pause on this tax while we're negotiating?
00:09:09.120 And we say, no, elbows up.
00:09:11.360 And then Sunday night at 10 p.m., we're going to rescind the tax and just walk away from
00:09:16.900 it completely.
00:09:17.480 We got nothing for it.
00:09:19.020 That was a disaster.
00:09:20.240 That was not a negotiation from someone of Carney's caliber.
00:09:25.080 He should know better.
00:09:25.780 I don't think it was a disaster because they hadn't started collecting revenue.
00:09:30.800 The you know, they pulled the plug on the thing, as you know, just days before they were going
00:09:36.720 to start collecting revenue.
00:09:38.100 I think it's significant for another reason, which is supply management, because in the same
00:09:44.980 post that the president attacked the digital tax, he also attacked again, supply management
00:09:53.500 and supply management is different than the digital tax.
00:09:56.300 Supply management is part of the Canadian political catechism and is wholly writ in the
00:10:01.620 province of Quebec.
00:10:03.000 And Andrew Scheer and Maxime Bernier can tell us all about that.
00:10:06.140 So I think it's a precursor of what is going to come.
00:10:09.960 It's easy to get rid of a digital tax when you haven't started collecting the revenue.
00:10:14.460 Supply management's very different, especially when the House of Commons just before it recessed,
00:10:19.500 unanimously just about passed a resolution from the block saying that the supply management
00:10:26.620 is not to be touched.
00:10:27.820 We'll see about that.
00:10:29.240 So I think that that is the bigger issue.
00:10:31.880 Do you think, because my intelligence is the Americans don't want us to get rid of supply
00:10:36.960 management, but they do want us to stop being jerks where we negotiate that, yes, you can
00:10:42.440 sell us this much milk or this much cheese, and then we block them.
00:10:45.860 I mean, you know, as much as I cheer for Canada, let's be honest, on the dairy front, we are
00:10:53.000 absolute jerks, and every country in the world will tell you that when they try and negotiate a trade
00:10:57.820 deal with Canada.
00:10:59.620 You know, I interviewed Martha Hall Finley, now at the School of Public Policy at the
00:11:04.960 University of Calgary, when I was out for Stampede.
00:11:07.020 She thinks, former Liberal MP, she thinks that we should get rid of supply management for
00:11:11.500 ourselves and that there's a way to do it and to make farmers whole.
00:11:14.540 My understanding is the Americans just want us to start living up to what we agree to in the
00:11:21.140 trade agreements and allow a bit more of their product into our market.
00:11:26.780 I don't think that's a bad thing, but if we, you know, to keep a few thousand Quebec dairy
00:11:32.060 farmers happy, screw over the auto industry, the steel industry, aluminum, farmers in every
00:11:39.700 other jurisdiction, that's bad for us.
00:11:41.440 Look, I know Conservatives, ideologically, philosophically, have problems with supply
00:11:49.460 management.
00:11:51.040 Well, I just cited the Liberal MP, and I've never called to get rid of it.
00:11:55.140 Let me finish.
00:11:56.480 But they've had multiple opportunities to get rid of it, and they've not done so.
00:12:00.680 And in fact, Mr. Scheer won the leadership of the Conservative Party by saying that he would
00:12:06.360 protect it. So I presume he did that for a reason. Like, I agree, I agree, it is interference
00:12:13.240 in the marketplace. But, you know, you have to also agree that no agricultural sector is
00:12:19.420 more interfered with in the world, well, except for the exception of China and Russia, than in
00:12:24.720 the United States. The United States has protectionist policies with respect to farmers and agriculture
00:12:30.580 that dwarfs ours. So, you know, it's, it's, we're not the only ones who have messed around
00:12:37.840 with the marketplace here. The Americans, in my view, have always been worse. So it's like
00:12:43.020 physician heal thyself. But anyway, I could be wrong. He may, he may look the other way on
00:12:48.800 supply management. But based upon the way he's, you know, firing off these letters that are like
00:12:54.860 mob shakedowns, I think that it's coming. I think it's going to hit. And I don't think
00:12:59.720 that Kearney is necessarily ready for it.
00:13:02.260 Yeah. I will also just add, like, on the DST thing, I think a lot of what was going on is,
00:13:07.060 my sense is, Kearney wanted to be Prime Minister. And in the election period, he said to his political
00:13:13.040 advisors, tell me what I have to do to win this thing. And he just said what he told them to say.
00:13:17.860 And that was elbows up, that was fighting Donald Trump, concede nothing, end the relationship
00:13:23.940 with the US, maybe join the EU, you know, he said what he had to say. I don't think he ever believed
00:13:30.540 any of that. I think he always was pragmatic about how he thought he ultimately would deal
00:13:35.120 with Trump, which is try to get a deal, negotiate, be willing to give some stuff up. Don't go too far.
00:13:40.440 But, you know, and, and I think what he realized when he formed his cabinet is a lot of those MPs and
00:13:46.300 those cabinet ministers believed what he said in the election. And they wanted that too, right? Like,
00:13:51.220 Chrystia Freeland staked a lot of her career on the DST and fought for it, you know, to no end.
00:13:56.820 And she's in his cabinet right now.
00:13:59.500 Stephen Gilboa.
00:14:01.200 Stephen Gilboa, like on, on supply management. Sure. Yeah. And it played a big role in the
00:14:06.220 leadership race for Andrew Scheer, but that's ancient history. Carney's government runs through Quebec.
00:14:12.340 Um, uh, and, and a lot of his senior advisors are now very politically sensitive Quebec political
00:14:18.420 leaders. Um, and so where, how Carney's like pragmatic run this thing, like a business runs
00:14:24.160 up against the politics, uh, and the political ramifications, even within his own caucus.
00:14:29.500 I think he's grappling with that every day and it remains to be seen what, what side he's
00:14:34.740 going to fall on. Okay. Let me, uh, use this as a good point to pivot and say overall, how do each
00:14:42.580 of you think Carney's doing so far? I, you know, Warren and I talk regularly and he's said a few
00:14:49.440 times that Carney's looking like he governs like a conservative and Jenny, I've been saying, no,
00:14:54.340 that's not the case. And then, uh, yesterday or the other day had to have a column in the sun
00:15:00.200 saying, well, look, he's saying he's going to cut program spending by 7.5, then 10%, then 15%.
00:15:07.280 That's pretty massive. He's talking about cutting regulations in a very positive way, saying this
00:15:12.920 will help the economy. He's talking about, uh, cutting staffing levels saying, Hmm, the conservatives
00:15:19.620 didn't even go that far in the last campaign. Uh, you know, so maybe, maybe he is in some respects,
00:15:26.500 I'll say that, uh, governing like a conservative. How do you rate how Carney's been doing himself?
00:15:33.340 Just, just him so far. And then we'll talk about his advisors and the PMO and all that. Is he doing
00:15:38.080 okay? Is he doing badly? Is he just saying the right things, but not delivering yet?
00:15:42.840 Um, I think he's doing well. I don't think you can argue with that. He's sort of on a bunch of
00:15:47.660 objective metrics. He's, he's doing well. Um, part of that is what we have to compare him to is such a
00:15:54.480 low bar. Um, just the level of functioning of the previous government was so low, their ability to
00:16:00.020 just do basic things, forget even what those things were, just their ability to do them,
00:16:04.280 um, was so low that to just show up to the office and get things done feels like this massive
00:16:10.420 accomplishment for Canadians because it's been 10 years of them getting used to worse and worse
00:16:14.900 and worse outcomes and less and less and less action. Um, he also has the appearance of someone
00:16:19.700 who's getting things done. He speaks relatively plainly. He seems very serious. He seems decisive.
00:16:27.140 Um, he's got the things he's announcing. He, yes, he, he also, from a positioning perspective on a
00:16:32.540 number of issues is taking this, you know, call it business liberal, call it red Tory centrist approach,
00:16:38.920 moderate approach to, um, uh, certain versions of smaller government and much, much more than that.
00:16:45.480 Um, uh, growth, like supply side growth, um, particularly when it comes to major projects
00:16:51.700 and infrastructure and, and he's paying a lot of lip service to that. There are lots of ways in
00:16:55.980 which he is not a conservative. I saw a poll on a bunch of issues. Like he's not, he paid a bit of
00:17:00.740 lip service to, to crime, um, and immigration and that sort of, some of those more culturally conservative
00:17:05.360 issues early on. And he, they've totally fallen by the wayside. Like, I think they're just of no
00:17:08.620 interest to him. Um, and, and for me, that's a big part of why he's not, I'm not a conservative.
00:17:13.300 He also, I think his view is that debt is cheap. Our debt to GDP ratio is okay. And he will run
00:17:20.700 massive, massive, massive death deficits that I think most conservatives would be really
00:17:25.060 uncomfortable with, even if he finds some program savings just because of how he's much he's adding
00:17:28.720 on defense and in other areas. Um, but you know, politically he's, he's doing pretty well.
00:17:35.400 It's got a nice honeymoon period that, that, that, that built into that though, um, there's
00:17:40.620 going to be some chickens that come home to roost. Like, uh, how much is he upsetting the
00:17:45.660 left wing of his caucus? Like left wing MPs, progressive liberal MPs. Um, I think we're
00:17:51.240 going to start to hear from them even before we hear from the NDP about how he's betrayed
00:17:55.620 them in many ways. And then I think also regular Canadians who are still upset about crime and
00:18:00.740 immigration and some of these other issues he doesn't seem to care about are going to
00:18:03.480 start to have a bit of a voice as his honeymoon fits. Uh, Warren, you were a Kretchen liberal.
00:18:08.700 I'm, I'm, I'm thinking. I still am. I think most people would, uh, acknowledge that you were
00:18:14.900 not a Trudeau liberal. How are you feeling about the Carney liberals? Uh, you know, well,
00:18:23.100 listen to what Jenny just said, you know, like he's reaching across the aisle, you know,
00:18:28.500 I'm hearing all the time. And I know the two of you are too conservative saying, wow,
00:18:34.040 you know, this is not bad, man. Is this ever different than Trudeau? You know, you go through
00:18:38.840 the list, um, capital gains. Uh, so he threw that one out carbon tax. First thing he did
00:18:46.200 defense spending program, spending cuts to programs, the staff hires, he's doing, he's hiring serious
00:18:54.200 people. Um, like all of it, you know, his positioning on everything from defense to budgets
00:19:02.260 is that of a progressive conservative, you know, he, this is a guy who you could very easily seeing
00:19:09.540 being comfortable within a Brian Moroney cabinet and maybe even a Stephen Harper cabinet. Maybe
00:19:15.220 that's why Harper kept him around as governor of the bank of Canada and had him play such a central
00:19:20.140 role in the economic downturn in 2008 and 2009. I think he's a progressive conservative. He's a blue,
00:19:27.360 blue, uh, grid. He does do this pro forma stuff about the environment and social programs. Um,
00:19:36.860 but you know, really at the end of the day, if you look at C5, C5 is a dramatic historic piece of
00:19:43.620 legislation that basically says, you know, I'm, I'm reducing this to its base elements. We kind of
00:19:50.800 don't give a shit about the environment anymore. We want to do resource extraction and we're going
00:19:55.940 to get our resources to market. That's what C5 says. And that's why environmental groups across the
00:20:02.580 country are as pissed off as they are. So, um, he, are they really though? Because, and I'd like to get
00:20:09.920 comments from, well, okay. If this was Doug Ford, um, here in Ontario or Pierre Polyev, if he'd won
00:20:18.260 the election, there'd be court challenges already. Yeah. Um, but I think there still will be Brian.
00:20:23.500 You think there will be? There will be. Because they made zero noise. They made zero noise when the
00:20:28.200 carbon tax was killed. Because the NDP is so weak right now, there's no voice for the activist left in
00:20:33.960 parliament. Um, but they're, they're, they're, they're getting louder. And like, you know, we've
00:20:40.120 given, I've given a lot of credit to Carney. So now I will make the counterpoint, which is he can say all
00:20:45.660 he wants about the fact that he'll probably have a pipeline in his list of major projects and how much
00:20:51.860 C5 is going to do to get things done quickly. But he has to actually do it. And, you know, in our
00:20:58.580 country, if, if David Emead does not want a pipeline going through BC, there ain't going to be one. Um,
00:21:04.880 if First Nations, even though Confederation should actually take care of that. Yeah. But I guess my
00:21:11.180 point is like, politics is hard. Federalism is hard. Um, and, and because he's in this honeymoon
00:21:16.180 period, he really hasn't had to run up against, there will be court challenges and he will probably
00:21:20.000 lose. Um, so whether it's First Nations, environmental groups, um, premiers that oppose, uh, that,
00:21:27.080 that like love interprovincial trade and major projects when it's not in their backyard, but hate
00:21:31.180 it when it's one of their protected industries or runs through their province, all these, all these
00:21:36.400 problems are sort of delayed right now because of the halo effect of Carney's honeymoon popularity.
00:21:42.560 And I think those will run up against, um, he's going to run up against the cold hard reality of,
00:21:47.660 um, the fact that he can't legislate past those first of all, and then the political reality that
00:21:53.220 Nader's Ken Smith and Karina Gould and a whole bunch of other, frankly, members of his cabinet,
00:21:59.080 not just caucus are going to feel really, really, really uncomfortable with his attempts to fight
00:22:03.100 those things. And they're going to start to get louder about it. So let, let me throw this at you
00:22:06.840 on, on that file is that at Stampede, I was told of a meeting that he had with energy industry executives
00:22:15.820 and they were asking him questions about C5 and how far he will go. And at some point he just said
00:22:21.420 to them and Warren, you'll appreciate this as a Calgarian of, of some sort. Um, you know, he looks
00:22:29.000 at the oil executives in the room and he says, well, hold on, I still have a cabinet and a caucus to
00:22:34.120 manage and they don't like this. And Stephen Guibo is not going to like some of what he's going to be
00:22:38.900 doing. For sure. For sure. I think he's going to have issues with liberal MPs. No, I don't.
00:22:46.080 Nader's Ken Smith is leaving. He's wants to be leader of the Ontario liberal party. He is busily
00:22:51.600 at work undermining Bonnie Crombie as we speak. Why on earth? Karina Gould. I know who wants that job?
00:22:59.580 Karina Gould is out of cabinet. Like this guy signaled from the earliest moment, once he won the
00:23:06.240 leadership, if you are on, you know, if you have an ideological disposition, like Justin Trudeau's,
00:23:12.740 I don't want you around. Like, you know, where's Katie Telford? Where's, where's Brian Clow? All
00:23:18.200 these people have disappeared and I don't think they've disappeared for no reason. I think he wanted
00:23:23.600 to send a signal by bringing in Sabia and bringing in Blanchard and these other people is this is a
00:23:30.460 different government. You know, he said it repeatedly during the election campaign. I am not Justin Trudeau.
00:23:35.520 And, you know, Poliev had that ridiculous line at the start, just like Justin. It could not have been
00:23:42.820 less true. And it's become less true with each passing day. This guy is not like Justin Trudeau in
00:23:49.880 the way he structured his government, the decisions he's making, the legislation that he's jammed through.
00:23:55.280 He is decidedly different. And like on the point about the court challenges, just putting on my lawyer's
00:24:01.660 hat, I don't agree that he's going to be unsuccessful in the inevitable court challenges.
00:24:08.120 You know, this is parliament speaking immediately after an election campaign. The one thing I know
00:24:14.240 about judges is they will, you know, they'll do an analysis under the charter and they'll overturn
00:24:19.480 legislation if they have to, but overturning legislation that was specifically mandated during
00:24:25.000 an election campaign, but this guy won. That's something judges will think twice about overturning.
00:24:31.020 So I think he, I think he's going to be good. Yes. Or Brian Hartford.
00:24:36.460 No, you're, you're, you're, you're talking about, you're saying this as just as Paul Shabbos
00:24:41.780 is still mulling over his ruling on why the Ford government, which ran on getting rid of bike
00:24:47.600 lanes, can't get rid of bike lanes despite a clear promise in the election to do so. And then
00:24:53.180 legislation passed by the legislature. Um, if you, if you get a good, we can't help ourselves.
00:24:58.760 If you get a good activist judge, uh, like Paul Shabbos, um, then yeah, you're, you're going
00:25:05.360 to get the right, uh, the right outcome or the left outcome. Um, I, I'm willing to bet the
00:25:10.960 both of you right now that Bill C-5 is not going to be overturned by the courts that count.
00:25:16.520 All right. There's another lunch at the patrician. Um, let's, let's take a pause now. And when
00:25:22.300 we come back, I want to pick up on something that you mentioned earlier, Jenny, and that's
00:25:26.560 about, uh, the Quebec centric nature of the government and the PMO. Back in moments.
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00:27:30.940 This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What? Where we unpack the biggest, weirdest,
00:27:36.400 and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew and tell you what really
00:27:41.240 happened. Stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favourite episodes.
00:27:46.820 If you don't want to stick around, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What? Everywhere you get
00:27:52.080 podcasts. So we've got a Prime Minister originally from Fort Smith in the Northwest Territories,
00:27:59.080 grew up in Edmonton, an Albertan of sorts, lived out of the country for a long time,
00:28:04.140 centred in Ottawa. But Jenny, you mentioned this earlier. This is a strong Quebec contingent
00:28:08.940 surrounding Mark Carney. Blanchard is part of it. Cabinet ministers like Melanie Jolie and Stephen
00:28:17.340 Guilbeault leaned upon heavily. You know, even Michael Sabia, who's not originally from Quebec,
00:28:23.340 has a lot of ties to Quebec Inc. and the Ottawa establishment. So is this a government by Quebec
00:28:30.740 once again? And how does that play out over the next little while?
00:28:36.460 I mean, I think it's a government by Laurentian elite, many of whom are Quebecers in this case.
00:28:44.300 Carney, I think, rightly understands some of his blind spots here in Quebec. Like, he was really
00:28:49.260 lucky to get the Quebec boats he got. And I think a big part of why he did is because of Donald Trump.
00:28:55.100 You know, Quebecers only hate one more thing than they hate other Canadians, and that's Americans.
00:28:59.820 And Trump brought that out in them. And that is why they voted for Mark Carney.
00:29:03.600 I think Champagne was one of the first MPs to endorse him, wasn't he? He was an early one.
00:29:08.520 Yeah, but they all did, really. Like, he won over caucus. And that was like, you know,
00:29:14.940 he became the front runner. He won the leadership for a bunch of reasons. But he won a lot of Quebec
00:29:19.420 voters because of Donald Trump, I think. And he, I think, is savvy enough to understand that if he
00:29:24.860 wants to win a majority, he has to hold that in Quebec and maybe even grow it. And Quebec is unique.
00:29:31.980 They're, like, much more economically nationalist. They're oddly culturally conservative in a lot of
00:29:37.680 ways. And that is not his natural instinct at all. And so having Quebecers around him to kind of
00:29:44.140 go maybe get, like, push back against some of his instincts sometimes is probably politically
00:29:48.940 useful for him. And they represent a type of Canadian business that Carney is the most sympathetic
00:29:57.200 to, I think. And so it's not surprising. As I understand it, he's trying to recruit way more
00:30:03.140 people from Bay Street, and he's just not having a lot of success for a bunch of reasons that aren't
00:30:07.820 necessarily his fault. But I think he's trying to recruit from business, and that means from Bay
00:30:12.540 Street and from Montreal. Warren, the initial chief of staff was Marco Mendicino. He'll be
00:30:20.180 stepping down within days. Blanchard will be taking over. You know, as someone that's been in those
00:30:25.960 offices, has Carney even had enough of a handle on what's going on with a temporary chief of staff
00:30:33.080 that everyone knows is leaving, that everyone used to sit in caucus with? You know, the chief can
00:30:37.780 wield an awful lot of power and keep things on track. Has Mendicino done a good job? Is that
00:30:45.460 hobbled, Carney? What's your take?
00:30:48.300 I think, I mean, one of the principal reasons he had Marco at the outset is he needed somebody with
00:30:55.860 a security clearance. And Marco had been a cabinet minister, so he had top secret. It's hard to get
00:31:02.640 that designation overnight. So that was part of it. He had some experience in government. He was liked
00:31:08.280 by a lot of people in caucus. A lot of people felt he'd been treated unfairly by Trudeau. That
00:31:15.400 probably didn't hurt. So there was kind of a myriad number of reasons why Marco was there. But Marco
00:31:20.600 wants to be mayor of Toronto, along with a whole bunch of other people. So, you know, he is disappearing,
00:31:26.740 as you pointed out. The people that, you know, Carney is bringing in, I don't think they're
00:31:34.440 noteworthy for being Quebecers. The Post will be critical of our own news organization. The Post had
00:31:40.080 this piece about Champagne and Blanchard and Sabia, Lamedy and Jolie being, you know, Jolie is not,
00:31:48.480 Jolie got demoted by Carney. So she doesn't have the clout that she did under Trudeau. I think the
00:31:54.640 reason why Blanchard and Sabia would have been brought in, in particular, is because they know
00:32:00.160 how to run big things. They know how to run government and they are respected. I think he
00:32:05.740 brought in Lamedy because Lamedy is a good lawyer and somebody that he knows. Champagne is a capable
00:32:13.400 minister of finance and a capable politician. So I think that their Quebecerness is, that's not a word,
00:32:20.840 is incidental. I think the real reason is he was looking for people with experience that he could
00:32:27.260 rely upon. What I've been surprised by is he's surrounding himself by a bunch of guys and he
00:32:32.200 has kind of gotten away with that. At some point, I think somebody is going to say, hey, from the,
00:32:37.440 you know, the balance perspective, gender balance perspective, you're not doing very well, Mark.
00:32:43.180 Oh, I think the star, the star has already done a piece on that.
00:32:46.280 Oh, there you go. Okay. So I don't read the star.
00:32:49.160 But let me, someone sent it to me. Let me ask you both about this quickly before we move on to
00:32:54.980 talking about Pierre Paliyev. Marco Mendocino is very open in his support for Israel. I'm having a
00:33:01.940 hard time getting a grasp on Carney, but, you know, he seems to be, well, open to moving Canada's
00:33:12.320 position to a degree. I'm not saying he's on Team Hamas like Melanie Jolie clearly is. And thankfully,
00:33:18.500 she's not at Foreign Affairs, but she was replaced by Anita Anand, who, you know, isn't that much
00:33:24.080 different from Melanie Jolie on this issue. Do you get a sense on where Carney sits on Israel,
00:33:30.020 on the Middle East, on Hamas? Ginny?
00:33:32.560 I think Warren would know better than I. My sense is that he doesn't feel strongly enough
00:33:40.220 about a pro-Israel or even anti-anti-Israel position to fight for it in caucus or cabinet.
00:33:51.840 And so in the politics of building a coalition and a foreign policy that is in line with your
00:34:00.340 electoral coalition, he is totally beholden to that which dominates his coalition, which is an
00:34:05.840 anti-Israel view. And from my perspective, as someone who's really pro-Israel, to me, that's the
00:34:11.760 same thing as being part of the Hamas caucus, because you end up with the same result. And I
00:34:15.680 think our foreign policy will change. It already is changing. So it's really disappointing. And I
00:34:21.220 think Carney's a principled guy on a lot of issues. I'm not sure why he's not principled on this one.
00:34:25.180 Um, but it's, it's upsetting.
00:34:28.400 Gorn?
00:34:30.180 Uh, I do spend a lot of time, as you guys know, um, pondering this question, um, cause it's
00:34:36.880 important to me as an Irish Catholic Zionist. Um, he says a lot of the right things, you know,
00:34:43.300 on hostages. He's made clear that the hostages need to come home. He has said that Hamas may,
00:34:50.260 needs to be out of power. He has said that Gaza needs to be demilitarized. That's all good.
00:34:57.740 He has not yet recognized a Palestinian state, despite, you know, the movement of other countries
00:35:03.880 in the world, Ireland and so on to do so. He has not embraced an arms embargo against Israel to the
00:35:10.820 degree that people like Jolie would like him to. So, you know, it's not bad, you know, but
00:35:17.000 Izzy is fulsome a supporter of the state of Israel as let's say Donald Trump is. He is not.
00:35:24.180 My suspicion is, you know, and we've all seen it in the polling as the war has gone on, as wars
00:35:31.000 always do, they become unpopular. They're easier to get into than they are to get out of. And Netanyahu
00:35:37.340 is a terrible communicator. I think he has been in power too long and he turns off people, not just in
00:35:43.800 Israel, but around the world. So he creates a dilemma for guys like Carney. I think if there
00:35:49.640 was a different prime minister in Israel, you know, he would be more fulsome in his support for
00:35:57.180 the state of Israel, but it's problematic. The one thing I think that is important that he does
00:36:01.900 as a personal and political statement that he's not yet done. And when I was in Israel just a few
00:36:08.500 weeks ago, this got mentioned to me many times, he has not been to Israel since October 7th. Trudeau
00:36:14.160 was the only world leader of significance, the only G7 leader who did not go to Israel after October
00:36:20.540 7th. The only one. Carney is now the second. And I think Carney needs to pack up his little kit bag,
00:36:28.140 get on his plane and get over to Israel and indicate his position on those things that I've outlined.
00:36:34.100 And he hasn't done that yet. I got some good restaurant recommendations for him in Tel Aviv,
00:36:39.040 if he goes. Let's, uh, let's shift to, uh, Pierre Polyev. Um, you know, some conservatives
00:36:47.240 nodding in agreement with me, some upset at me after writing from Stampede about what I was hearing,
00:36:54.420 which was a lot of griping. Um, and the griping had changed immediately after the election. I was hearing
00:37:01.560 griping about Doug Ford, about Corey tonight, about Jenny Byrne. Uh, what surprised me was hearing
00:37:07.560 from Western Canadian conservatives, people who've sat on EDA boards, who have been fundraisers for
00:37:13.560 the party organizers, you know, done the hard work that both of, you know, needs to be done in a
00:37:19.820 campaign. Um, these aren't keyboard warriors. And they were griping about Pierre this time,
00:37:26.720 not about the others. Um, that came as a bit of a shock to me. And I think they saw it on my face,
00:37:33.020 uh, the various people that were, were saying it to me. And so the message that I was hearing,
00:37:38.600 Jenny, is that either the leader needs to change what he's doing or the leader needs to be changed.
00:37:44.500 There, there wasn't a consensus. Uh, you know, uh, I spoke to Pierre briefly about this during the
00:37:51.320 week, as I noted in my columns, but, you know, are you hearing that same sort of griping and are you
00:37:58.420 seeing the kind of changes that need to happen from the leader's office? Um, so I think I would say,
00:38:06.680 yes, people are griping because we lost and you gripe when you lose. Um,
00:38:14.740 but the, you know, there are two big tests for Paliyev, his by-election and his leadership
00:38:22.120 review. I think the fundamentals and effects on the ground are such that he will do well in both.
00:38:28.340 That doesn't mean, um, he's, it's smooth sailing. Like, I think the much harder job comes after,
00:38:33.040 um, those two things, which is he has to find a way to drive contrast with Mark Carney. And that's
00:38:40.060 really challenging because of what we talked about earlier. Um, so I, I've said this to, um,
00:38:48.100 Mr. Paliyev and, and I'll say it here. My, I think he has to focus on winning those two,
00:38:52.940 the by-election and the leadership review. And then I think he has to take what is his greatest
00:38:56.320 asset relative to Mark Carney. And he needs to spend time talking to regular Canadians across the
00:39:01.860 country. He needs to go on a tour. Um, and it needs to be a listening tour. And I don't mean a party
00:39:08.080 members, like an activists and the type of people that you talk to. I mean, I'm just like regular
00:39:11.760 people. Um, because I can tell you during the leadership campaign and then the sort of six
00:39:17.160 to eight months following when he was sort of rising in the polls and at his best, he had this
00:39:23.060 mechanism and it was this built in focus group, um, where he would do these rallies and then he
00:39:28.580 would do a photo line afterward. And it was hours of talking to people in these photo lines.
00:39:31.700 And he had the closest touch point to how people were struggling and about what, when car thefts
00:39:39.560 were going up, he knew it before anyone else was. When the carbon tax was hitting gas prices,
00:39:44.240 uh, a few summers ago, he knew it before it was being reported in the news. And it gave him a
00:39:49.080 massive advantage over Trudeau who was sort of stuck in the Ottawa bubble and totally out of touch with
00:39:53.380 how people were struggling or feeling. And, um, we're not, things are not as dire as they were when
00:39:59.320 when inflation was really high, but they're not great. Like people are not okay. And I think if
00:40:04.500 he can get back on that circuit and be in listening mode, like really be in, in sort of like, um, I
00:40:10.240 want to hear from you and I want to hear what's, what's up and what you're struggling with. That is
00:40:14.740 how he will figure out what are the issues I can drive contrast with against Carney. Um, and then he's
00:40:20.240 a politically skilled guy. Um, you know, once you have the substance, you can kind of get back to
00:40:25.280 building the narrative that he built a couple of years ago on a new issue set in a way that's
00:40:30.000 compelling. Uh, and that gets people excited again. Warren, one thing that, uh, probably have
00:40:34.840 said to me on the phone on Tuesday was that, um, he admitted that there's difficulty in going up
00:40:41.680 against Mark Carney, um, with how things are playing out right now. And, and then he made a good pop
00:40:47.740 culture reference. I know you always like those. Uh, he said, um, it's a bit like the Eminem song.
00:40:53.480 And will the real Slim Shady please stand up? He said, we don't know who the real Mark Carney
00:40:57.840 is. Cause the guy we're seeing now is very different than who we saw for years, who we
00:41:01.880 saw in his book values. And, and, and so that's, that's hard for him to go up against, but it
00:41:08.040 doesn't mean that the griping and the, the anger isn't there.
00:41:13.200 No, that's there. And, um, you know, like I, I put together in preparation for a discussion,
00:41:20.920 I love top 10 lists, you know, the reasons why I think the conservative party has to dump
00:41:28.520 their leader. Um, liberals desperately don't want that to happen. Um, and I know that there's
00:41:36.240 historical precedent, whether it's with Dalton McGinty, who I worked with or Stephen Harper,
00:41:41.860 you know, both those guys lost an election, but both those guys were qualitatively different
00:41:47.280 than Pierre Pollyann. And, you know, what happened here was Polly have lost his seat to a political
00:41:53.840 newbie. He got clobbered. He lost an election where he had nearly a 30 point lead for a long,
00:42:01.200 long time. Um, he alienated proven conservative winners like Doug Ford and Tim Houston. Um, and like,
00:42:11.460 so since the election, he hasn't acknowledged his errors, like with, you know, I read what you, um,
00:42:18.120 uh, wrote about him, Brian, with interest, like a lot of people did. He hasn't said, I screwed up.
00:42:24.140 You know, it took him days to phone the guy who beat him in, in hid the writing he'd held for 20
00:42:31.300 years, you know, and his numbers have gotten worse dramatically since the election, but the numbers
00:42:37.080 of the conservative party have not. Nanos has them down. Abacus has everything the same. And those
00:42:43.840 are the only two guys polling right now. The numbers of the conservative party are competitive
00:42:48.360 still, but Polly has numbers, even though he, he hasn't done anything that's meaningful or significant,
00:42:54.860 you know, gotten worse and women voters still don't like him. You know, he still got the Trump problem.
00:43:01.080 He's got people like Danielle Smith singing his praises and Smith is the most unpopular premier in the
00:43:06.240 country. Like he just has a whole ton of problems, but the most fundamental problem that he's gone
00:43:12.480 as somebody like, you know, like Jenny, you know, we advise politicians, we advise leaders. He is who he
00:43:20.600 is. The fundamentals of that man are not going to change how his stylistics and his manner and the way he
00:43:28.680 expresses themselves, all the things that lost him the election, they're not going to change before the
00:43:34.740 next election. He is who he is. And I think, um, conservatives are deluding themselves. And if
00:43:43.080 they think that there's some magic solution to this problem, there is not, their problem is Pierre
00:43:49.100 Polly. Warren and I haven't disagreed enough yet. So I'm going to jump in there. Um, I agree with
00:43:57.480 I disagree vociferously. So, um, first of all, Polly did better, um, than in terms of the number of Canadians
00:44:06.800 who voted for him than conservatives have done since, um, our 2011 majority government. We live in the first
00:44:13.040 past the post system and you have to win more seats. So that's why we lost and we did lose. Um, and, and I think
00:44:21.660 that's because of a lot, a lot of the characteristics that I agree, he probably won't change that much.
00:44:27.240 Um, a lot of those characteristics really, really worked for him. Um, he won a lot of votes from a
00:44:33.140 lot of voters and a lot of those voters. Um, I think there's a misapprehension on the part of the
00:44:39.100 general public that like there are, you know, a few thousand liberal conservative switchers and that's
00:44:43.840 what elections are fought over. Actually, they're not. Voting coalitions change all the time. A huge part of
00:44:49.640 the growth of Polyev's number, the conservative numbers came from non-voters, historic non-voters
00:44:54.480 and PPC voters. Like I think over a million people voted PPC in the previous election and basically all
00:45:01.720 those voters went to Polyev in this election. Um, so when you think about- And those had been a lot of
00:45:06.600 non-voters previously. That's right. That's right. Um, and, and you need to do that. The conservative
00:45:12.700 party cannot be successful in an election if it bleeds from the right. Um, or if it bleeds populist voters
00:45:18.020 or non-voters or however you want to describe them. Um, that is a huge consolidating that right
00:45:22.840 and pushing into the middle and getting the numbers poly of God is a huge accomplishment
00:45:26.880 that he now needs to build on. Now, are there some stylistic pieces that he can think about
00:45:31.980 that make him more appealing to some of those voters on the edge who might've gone to Kearney,
00:45:35.980 um, uh, in those sort of like six weeks of the election that might've been sitting with him before?
00:45:40.500 Sure. I think there was a lot of evidence in the English language debate that he's capable of that
00:45:44.980 kind of like personal moderation, by the way. Um, which I think he's sort of like handily won
00:45:50.560 in terms of the stylistic challenge of, of, um, presenting a more serious prime ministerial,
00:45:56.700 uh, demeanor. Um, and, and there's a lot of mistakes that were made that can be fixed.
00:46:02.540 Uh, we could nominate more candidates faster. Um, we could put more caucus members in the window.
00:46:07.840 Um, you know, we really only heard from him. We didn't hear from him some of his star caucus
00:46:10.760 members. He didn't really give people an impression of what kind of cabinet he'd form if he became
00:46:14.320 prime minister. There are a lot of things that I would critique with the election and that I think
00:46:18.200 he's doing a self critique on as we speak. Um, but his, like his drive, his ability to connect with
00:46:25.200 young men, um, many of whom have never voted before and get them out, um, make them conservatives,
00:46:31.240 uh, for the first time in their life. All of this is just such a strong endorsement of why she needs
00:46:35.680 to stick around. Let me ask you about this part. And that is the, the part that saw
00:46:42.520 Polyev and those around him freeze out Doug Ford, Patrick Brown, Jean Charest, Tim Houston,
00:46:51.020 Peter McKay, anyone that wasn't their team. There was that, no, we don't need to, to talk to you or
00:46:56.540 deal with you. And when I wrote about the griping that I was hearing in Calgary, and by the way,
00:47:01.680 some of these people worked on, you know, for the conservatives in the last election campaign,
00:47:05.980 but are really angry about how it happened. I'd get, well, they're not real conservatives.
00:47:10.220 They're Doug Ford conservatives while you're in Calgary. So the Calgarians are not real
00:47:14.280 conservatives. You've got this, you're not a real conservative test happening within the party.
00:47:19.720 And I love to say it. Politics is about addition, not subtraction. They added a lot of votes. That's
00:47:25.140 great. But if you start saying. You probably have one more votes, voters in Ontario that Doug Ford did.
00:47:30.320 Yeah. But fewer seats. But you know, if you've, if you constantly try and push people away,
00:47:35.900 not going to win. Like they've got to open up the tent in a way, and to some degree did, but also
00:47:42.980 excluded people. And I think that hadn't excluded a lot of people that it may have been a different
00:47:48.140 outcome. Can, can they fix that part? Yeah, I think, I think you're, yeah, look, he, he opened up
00:47:54.360 the tent to hundreds of thousands, if not millions of new voters and grew the party in that way. There are a
00:48:00.100 lot of establishment fingers who felt left out. And I think, I think there's something to that
00:48:05.620 critique that, look, when you get to this level of test, and a federal election and a national
00:48:13.020 election that's going to make you prime minister, you suck it up and pick up the phone, and you try
00:48:16.800 to make more friends and fewer enemies. And there's something to be said for that. And it's probably
00:48:21.980 something that Polyev, who thrives in opposition, who is a fighter, who is the kind of guy who wants
00:48:29.300 to step on his opponent's neck and take no prisoners, needs to moderate in himself. And, you know, you saw
00:48:37.140 that he'd be called, he called Ford in the weeks following the election. And I think, I think that is
00:48:44.120 something that he needs to sort of take, take to heart and take under consideration.
00:48:47.640 Oh, yeah. I'll, I'll start with you, Warren, then to Jenny, and this is the last point,
00:48:51.340 a path forward for the conservatives. If Mark Carney keeps stealing their ideas and their rhetoric,
00:48:56.580 even if he only goes halfway, a lot of voters will look at it and say, oh, well, he's doing something.
00:49:01.560 So if Carney stays on this path that he's talked about over the last week or so,
00:49:07.280 is there a path forward for the conservatives?
00:49:09.900 It crowds out this space. No, you're absolutely right. You know, it, it just steals a lot of
00:49:16.500 Pierre Poliev's oxygen and that, uh, for his party. And, uh, I presume that's part of the
00:49:22.900 reason why he's doing it. Part of the reason why he's doing it is he believes it's right for the
00:49:26.300 country. You know, I happened to work for a guy who did the same thing. You know, we got, uh,
00:49:32.480 when I worked for Mr. Kretzian, we got accused of being communists and, you know, Kim Campbell ran ads
00:49:38.620 showing money being dumped out of a dump truck and so on. And then we got into government and people saw
00:49:44.480 what we believed, which is we needed to rein in spending and we need to cut back on program spending
00:49:50.160 and we needed to make some very tough decisions. And we, you know, released a year in the toughest
00:49:56.000 budget in Canadian history in our lifetimes. So I think Carney learned from that experience and that
00:50:03.220 creates precious little room for a guy like Pierre Poliev or Carolyn Mulroney, if she's the successor
00:50:09.040 or Jason Kenney or whoever is coming next. Cause I think, you know, I don't see that there is a
00:50:15.060 tenable way forward for Poliev. And the proof of that, by the way, it's just, I was thinking about
00:50:20.600 this when, uh, Ginny was speaking, if the conservative party and Poliev staff really believed
00:50:27.180 that he was a winner and he could pull this off in a second round, they would not have sent him out
00:50:32.840 to an Alberta riding where a blue fence post could win. They would have sent him in to an Ontario
00:50:39.520 riding to say to the party and say to the country, he can win, right? He can win in the center of the
00:50:45.260 country where it counts. And they didn't do that. They chickened out. And I think that's them showing
00:50:50.620 with their own behavior, uh, perhaps inadvertently that they know at the end of the day, Pierre
00:50:56.620 Poliev is a loser and he's not going to win next time against Mark Carney.
00:51:01.000 Okay. Some final disagreement from Jenny. Um, I think Poliev will be the leader going into the
00:51:06.880 next election. Um, and I think a few things will happen. Um, Carney won't be able to deliver on a lot
00:51:13.840 of the high expectations he set, whether it's on Canada, U S relations, getting major projects
00:51:18.040 built, getting shovels in the ground, um, uh, affordability. Uh, people are really still struggling
00:51:23.940 like inflation's down, but prices are still up. Um, I think I didn't, we're going to struggle with
00:51:28.640 unemployment, um, starting with young people. And I think that could get worse, uh, if the trade
00:51:32.980 fight continues. So just the, the, the situation in the economy will get worse and there'll be a
00:51:37.340 lot of room to critique him on the things he's trying to do. And perhaps more importantly than
00:51:41.480 that, there are some areas that he paid lift service to in the election and the one or two weeks
00:51:47.020 following because he knew voters cared about them that he could give a fig about now. It's just obvious
00:51:52.680 they have no, no interest to him. I think one is immigration. Um, Canadians are still really,
00:51:59.100 really, really pissed off about immigration to the point that they want like net, net negative
00:52:03.240 migration. Um, and I think Polly, or I think Carney is weak on that because he's so pro-business that
00:52:08.700 he wants just like an endless supply of, of new labor for them. Um, so that's one area. I think crime
00:52:14.240 is another huge area, Brian. I know you focus on this a lot and you see it the same way that I do.
00:52:18.280 The disorder stuff is still really bad and people like live it every day. Um, it's something that
00:52:23.760 he paid liver lip service to it, bail reform in the election. And he's not, we have not heard a
00:52:27.680 peep from him since. Um, there, so there's some, there's some really big categorical policy areas that
00:52:33.380 he has no interest in and that his political masters will have to force him to talk about. And
00:52:37.540 Polly of needs to focus on those areas as, as he waits for Carney to screw up on some of the other
00:52:43.400 big stuff. Jenny Roth, Warren Kinsella. Thanks for the great conversation.
00:52:47.360 Thank you. Thanks guys. Full comment is a post-media podcast. My name's Brian Lilly,
00:52:52.500 your host. This episode was produced by Andre Pru. Theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin is the
00:52:58.380 executive producer. Please remember to hit the subscribe button on Amazon, Apple, Spotify,
00:53:03.180 wherever you get your podcasts. Help us out by leaving us a rating or a review. Thanks for
00:53:08.360 listening. Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.
00:53:10.420 Here's that clip from Canada did what? I promised you.
00:53:21.940 Imagine yourself inside a Boeing 767 operated by Air Canada. It's July, 1983. You're traveling
00:53:30.460 between Montreal and Edmonton and a couple hours into the flight, the comforting roar of its two jet
00:53:36.100 engines suddenly stop and most of the power cuts out. Good evening. It was a metric mix-up. Air Canada
00:53:43.560 has confirmed the plane that landed at Gimli, Manitoba last Saturday ran out of gas because of
00:53:49.660 an error in metric conversion. I regret to inform you that you're inside the Gimli glider, one of
00:53:55.980 history's only incidents of a civilian airliner running out of gas in the middle of the sky.
00:54:01.740 And this happened because someone didn't know how to properly measure out enough jet fuel.
00:54:07.940 Now, I mentioned the Gimli glider only to note that systems of measure are not just numbers on a
00:54:13.100 page. They're cultural objects. They might not be on par with language or religion, but they're ways
00:54:19.920 of understanding the world around us. And if you screw with them, even with the best of intentions,
00:54:25.920 you might get the occasional airliner falling out of the sky.
00:54:28.940 Fortunately, in this instance, it miraculously worked out fine. The pilots in control of this
00:54:35.920 particular Air Canada flight just happened to be two of the only people on earth perfectly suited
00:54:41.660 to safely bring down a crippled full-size airliner in the middle of Manitoba. One of them was an
00:54:48.500 experienced glider pilot. The other one was a former Royal Canadian Air Force pilot who just happened
00:54:54.720 to have served at a Manitoba airbase that was now directly underneath them.
00:55:01.100 If you want to hear the rest of the story, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What?
00:55:06.380 Everywhere you get your podcasts.