Full Comment - We're getting zapped by Guilbeault's radical, no-fuel, electrified future

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00:01:58.720 The future is electric.

00:02:07.260 That's what we're being told, anyway.

00:02:09.160 It pushes on to have us changing our heating systems in our homes, our cars, our vehicles, everything moving towards electric.

00:02:16.360 But is the future truly electric?

00:02:18.420 Hi, I'm Brian Lilly. This is the Full Comment Podcast.

00:02:21.000 And this week, we're going to look at whether or not we're ready for this so-called electric future.

00:02:25.840 Canada has landed big investments in the EV battery space.

00:02:30.440 Volkswagen, which has never invested in a Canadian plant, is putting up billions to build one here.

00:02:35.860 Stellantis, the company that we used to call Chrysler, doing the same in Windsor, Ontario.

00:02:40.460 And all the way up the 401 and along the St. Lawrence area, up into Quebec, you've got investment from European, Asian, and other countries in this space.

00:02:51.840 But are we really ready for it?

00:02:53.780 Are people ready to switch from an internal combustion engine running on gas or diesel to an electric vehicle?

00:02:59.980 Do we have the ability to create and generate, transmit enough electricity to power those vehicles?

00:03:05.580 And what about all those heat pumps that we're going to be installing?

00:03:09.160 Parker Glant is someone who spent more than 30 years in finance, working at TD Bank, and now spends his time in retirement, researching the energy sector, transmission and distribution of energy, and the future of it.

00:03:22.460 He's written in National Post and other publications across the country, and he joins me now.

00:03:27.420 Parker, thanks for the time today.

00:03:29.920 My pleasure.

00:03:30.620 So let me ask you, as you heard in that introduction, governments around the world, particularly here in Ontario, put in a big bet on the future being electric.

00:03:43.600 So is the future electric, and are we ready for that future?

00:03:49.320 Well, if we're ready, we better load up our bank accounts, because it's going to cost us an awful lot of money.

00:03:54.540 And I just read a short article today that came out of England, saying that they're going to investigate over there.

00:04:05.320 They have what is known as the Climate Change Committee, and they're now launching an investigation because they underestimated the costs in the future.

00:04:18.520 And they're saying now it's going to cost trillions more.

00:04:21.400 So it's pretty scary.

00:04:24.500 And I don't think that the politicians have done a very good job of actually costing these things out and figuring out what the effects on the economy and our livelihoods are going to be.

00:04:38.680 So my view is that we're in for either a tough time, or we're going to have to do, or a politician, you're going to have to do a lot of backpedaling.

00:04:51.160 That's my view.

00:04:52.500 In terms of electric vehicles, that is part of the big push right now.

00:04:59.700 And I don't want to get into, do EVs work, do they not work?

00:05:04.660 My view is they work in certain settings, certain situations, but not in all.

00:05:10.080 But for now, let's talk about if we did go EV, and the Trudeau government says it's sticking to its 2035 deadline of having all vehicles electric.

00:05:21.660 What does that mean for the grid?

00:05:25.840 Because, you know, I think of the building that I live in.

00:05:29.740 It was built in the late 80s.

00:05:31.880 It doesn't have charging infrastructure in the parking garage.

00:05:35.180 It's a condo building where there isn't even separate meters for each individual unit.

00:05:42.460 The entire building would have to be rewired.

00:05:44.880 And this is in an urban setting where EVs make much more sense than they do in a rural setting.

00:05:50.900 So if that's the sort of challenge that faces individual buildings, that faces individual communities, do we have enough power?

00:05:59.940 Are we ready, grid-wise, whether it's in Ontario or British Columbia or Quebec or elsewhere, Alberta, for this push by the federal government to say,

00:06:10.460 you're all going to be charging your cars instead of going to the gas station?

00:06:13.340 Well, from my view, no.

00:06:17.020 I think it's going to be, as I just pointed out, a huge cost to refit all those buildings that haven't got charging units or have to be upgraded to connect with higher power from the grid.

00:06:30.580 And on top of that, all of the grid has to be increased as well as all this demand is expected to drive up both our generation and our use of electricity for all the functions that we perform in life

00:06:48.760 that are now supported by fossil fuels and natural gas to heat our homes instead of heat pumps, things of that nature.

00:06:58.520 It just goes on and on.

00:07:00.320 And I don't think the clarity wasn't very good in most of the politicians' brains at this point in time, not just in Canada, but around the world.

00:07:11.780 It's happening everywhere.

00:07:12.820 And when we get to talking about EVs, I think the bloom was off the rose.

00:07:17.920 I just read an article about California, and for the first time in a decade, sales of EVs in California fell.

00:07:28.180 And in Canada, it's not looking much better.

00:07:32.560 The only provinces that are selling a reasonable number of EVs are the provinces that had, you know, taxpayer dollars that reduces the costs.

00:07:45.320 And, you know, on top of that, we've got to spend, you know, billions, if you look at the world, probably trillions of dollars to put all these chargers in.

00:07:56.860 And these chargers, again, I've got to go back to California.

00:08:01.060 I remember an article I read about one of the chargers that Tesla had installed, and it was actually using diesel engine to generate diesel fuel, I should say, power to charge the EVs.

00:08:16.900 So there you go.

00:08:17.860 There's a lot of this going on around that we don't know about, and the media doesn't report on it.

00:08:23.300 Well, look, I can tell you that if California is not ready, none of us will be, because I spent some time down in California, and there are more electric vehicles there than I see anywhere else in North America.

00:08:40.540 More than you would see across Canada, more than you'd see in upstate New York, in Florida.

00:08:47.740 I'm just talking, or Chicago, just thinking about the places I've been recently.

00:08:52.220 And, you know, it's not just Tesla's.

00:08:54.660 It's all kinds of EVs that you see in California.

00:08:57.920 And if their grid isn't going to be ready, I can only imagine what it's going to be like for the rest of us.

00:09:04.900 The idea that we can build, though, build capacity, when we've got a government like the Trudeau government, we've got an environment minister like Stephen Guibault, Mr. No More Roads for You.

00:09:18.820 You know, to get to where they want us to be would require building capacity, and they're fighting the Saskatchewan government over a wind and solar program that has a natural gas generator backup.

00:09:39.140 That's required for those things, but they don't want them to have it.

00:09:42.000 They will fight basically any major infrastructure project.

00:09:47.800 You think of the amount of electricity we'll need to generate.

00:09:51.060 You can't just do this with, you know, small generation facilities or even SMRs, the small modular nuclear reactors.

00:09:59.940 There's going to have to be something big.

00:10:03.060 You know, Quebec has this massive James Bay electrical generation facility that could not be built today

00:10:10.760 because it flooded out a good chunk of the province.

00:10:14.400 It would be considered an environmental abomination today to build like that.

00:10:19.700 But that's the type of scale that we're going to need, isn't it?

00:10:24.300 Yeah, it is.

00:10:24.980 But if Mr. Guilbera doesn't let us build any roads to James Bay, we're going to be in trouble.

00:10:31.880 So, same thing with the, you know, the commodities that are required to make the electric vehicles and batteries that they use.

00:10:42.480 I mean, we have those minerals in Canada, but we don't have the roads to them.

00:10:46.600 I mean, I keep thinking of the Ring of Fire.

00:10:48.820 You probably, a lot of Ontarians would know about the Ring of Fire.

00:10:52.820 It's supposed to be loaded with all kinds of valuable minerals.

00:10:55.760 But we can't build a road there to it anymore if Mr. Guilbera gets his, you know, his wishes.

00:11:04.320 And I was reading another article from quite some time ago, and I think the cost of building that road to the Ring of Fire was north of a billion and a half dollars.

00:11:16.700 So, you know, where are they going to find all these dollars to pay for these infrastructure projects is beyond belief.

00:11:25.300 I just, you know, you can't just reach into your pocket and say, oh, we've got lots of taxpayers that we can ding, or we're running a big surplus in our annual budgets.

00:11:35.720 They're not.

00:11:36.160 They're not running any surpluses, any of the governments, except perhaps for Alberta.

00:11:41.020 And, you know, they benefit from the oil and gas sector.

00:11:45.120 So, I don't know where they think they're going to get all this money.

00:11:49.660 And besides that, they've got all the, you know, all the regulations to go through.

00:11:56.200 They've got to, you know, make sure that the First Nations involved are going to be on their side.

00:12:03.320 Again, and, you know, so, you know, the hopes that we're going to get there by 2035 is, you know, unbelievable.

00:12:13.280 It's not going to happen, I don't think.

00:12:16.020 I mean, the other thing that's happened.

00:12:17.700 So, I was just going to say, for people that don't know about the Reign of Fire, it's a major mineral deposit in northern Ontario in an area with no roads, no infrastructure.

00:12:29.520 And the Ford government has been working closely with, I've been hearing about it for 20 years or more.

00:12:35.840 I remember hearing about it from, actually, it's more than 20 years ago now, because I remember hearing Ernie Eves when he was premier, and he left office in 2003.

00:12:43.420 Ernie Eves, Dalton McGinty, Kathleen Wynne, now Doug Ford.

00:12:48.600 Ford has moved it along a bit in terms of deals with some of the local First Nations, but you've also got some that are opposing it.

00:12:58.200 The ones closest to it say, yeah, this is great, this will be economic development, but you've got some that are going to oppose it, and that will slow things down.

00:13:07.200 And so, that chromite, that nickel, that copper, zinc, platinum, all these metals, it's going to take a lot of effort, money, and time to get that out of the ground.

00:13:17.260 And meanwhile, you've got developments where people are going around and looking, because of this electric vehicle battery rush, you've got people looking in new places for minerals.

00:13:28.200 And down in California, back to there, the Salton Sea is considered one of the biggest lithium deposits, and it's green, and it's easier to get to than the Ring of Fire.

00:13:39.780 They've already got roads around the Salton Sea.

00:13:42.040 So, there's going to be this ongoing competition, and also competition to get the minerals, and it, you know, may not be able to get enough materials to build the batteries that Trudeau's calling for by 2035.

00:13:59.840 Yep.

00:14:00.540 I mean, the top 10 battery manufacturers now in the world, out of the top 10, nine of them are from China, believe it or not.

00:14:11.500 And the biggest one is this CATL, C-A-T-L, that's the stock trading name, and I'm not going to get into the actual name of the company.

00:14:22.820 But they have a 40% market share of all EV batteries around the world that are produced by, you know, whether it's Tesla or whether it's, you know, Stellanus, it doesn't matter.

00:14:36.380 So, they have basically got, you know, full control.

00:14:40.460 And they've got, you know, lithium mines and other access to all the other minerals needed around the world.

00:14:52.040 And a lot of them are, you know, coming out of China.

00:14:54.660 I mean, the funny thing about that, EVs, is the fact that probably 90% or maybe even higher, all electric batteries for vehicles are made in China, and made for, also for the battery energy storage systems.

00:15:11.660 So, if they're all made in China, how clean are those batteries when they arrive? 0.72

00:15:19.680 I mean, China's got over 1,150 coal mines, and they keep opening up more and more.

00:15:26.780 So, I'm sure those coal mines are emitting all kinds of greenhouse gases over there in China.

00:15:33.120 But when the batteries land in, you know, Vancouver or, you know, one of the ports here, all of a sudden, they're going to be clean, you know, non-emitting or anything else.

00:15:43.620 I just think it's funny.

00:15:44.680 And then, on top of that, I just also read that in France, they're working on basically trying to recover the minerals from EV batteries.

00:15:57.780 And there was a plant near Toulouse, I believe, in France, that recently just caught on fire.

00:16:05.580 9,000 tons of lithium caught on fire and was burned up.

00:16:10.860 And you should have seen, they actually had a video on the article I read.

00:16:16.520 And the smoke coming from that fire was just incredibly dense.

00:16:21.140 It didn't look like it was, you know, free of any harm that mankind might expect.

00:16:30.880 Not something you want to be breathing in, let's say.

00:16:34.280 Yes.

00:16:35.820 So, let me get your sense.

00:16:38.660 You're talking about China having the monopoly on the EV battery marts.

00:16:43.960 And we'll get to the push by Canada, by the Ontario government to snag a share of that in a moment.

00:16:53.080 But Flavio Volpe, who is president of the Canadian Auto Parts Manufacturers Association,

00:16:59.260 he's been critical of the Trudeau government's push to mandate EV sales by year.

00:17:10.780 They've got to be an increasing amount because he said, all this does is send the manufacturing jobs to China.

00:17:19.000 And so, we're trying to build these facilities here for the future.

00:17:24.180 But while we're building them, we're giving the market share to China, 0.86

00:17:30.160 which undermines the long-term plan and the short-term plan.

00:17:34.000 That's for sure, because, you know, there's only a certain number of customers, if you will.

00:17:43.440 And if those customers are all loaded up with Chinese manufactured product,

00:17:47.480 why are they going to buy, you know, Canadian local ones?

00:17:51.880 You know, and the other thing that's happening, of course, with those batteries,

00:17:55.180 is they're also being applied to transit authorities.

00:17:59.380 And I don't know whether you caught the recent news out of Edmonton,

00:18:04.300 but they've gone, you know, they went full blow and big charge

00:18:09.220 in getting transit buses that were EVs, electric buses.

00:18:15.020 And the company they bought them for, Proterra, is out of California.

00:18:20.660 And it's in Chapter 11, I believe, now in the United States.

00:18:24.540 And these transit buses have not performed as they were supposed to perform.

00:18:33.280 So now that they've gone into Chapter 11,

00:18:37.460 the city of Edmonton has turned around and sued them for $86 million

00:18:41.640 for the transit buses that they've actually had delivered and have been using.

00:18:46.500 And that's happening everywhere.

00:18:48.380 I've just read about school buses in Prince Edward Island

00:18:51.860 that they're having nothing but problems with as well.

00:18:55.140 So, I mean, and these, all those school buses and transit buses

00:18:58.720 are all, you know, taxpayer dollars paid for.

00:19:03.220 And the transit buses, the electric transit buses,

00:19:07.400 cost twice as much as a diesel-powered transit bus.

00:19:10.780 So, you know, they're doubling up on spending

00:19:13.400 and creating all kinds of additional problems

00:19:17.240 that they haven't resolved yet.

00:19:19.320 Let me be blunt and ask you, Parker.

00:19:24.800 I am not, a lot of my colleagues at Post Media,

00:19:28.680 at The Sun, at National Post, elsewhere,

00:19:30.520 are very skeptical of EVs, period.

00:19:33.240 They just don't think it's going to be part of the future at all.

00:19:37.320 They don't think they work, things like that.

00:19:40.360 My view is they work in certain situations.

00:19:43.840 They have definite uses.

00:19:46.300 I live in a downtown environment.

00:19:49.280 If I had a way to charge a vehicle,

00:19:52.040 I could easily use one for zipping around the city.

00:19:55.920 I look at the FedEx vehicles,

00:19:58.200 like I believe they're called the Bright Drops.

00:20:00.600 Those are the delivery trucks being built out in Ingersoll

00:20:03.560 on an EV platform.

00:20:05.460 Those get used in urban settings by places like FedEx, Amazon,

00:20:11.260 for doing those, you know, delivering the parcels.

00:20:15.560 It's regular stops.

00:20:17.060 It's within the city.

00:20:18.060 It's short drives.

00:20:19.800 I think those are all fine uses.

00:20:22.160 I don't think that EVs work in all situations, though.

00:20:25.820 But where do you come down?

00:20:27.820 Are you, they're good in some uses, not in others?

00:20:31.660 Or do you think it's just a complete lemon that we're buying into?

00:20:36.360 Well, they're great golf carts.

00:20:39.540 If you've ever golfed, you've probably sat in a golf cart.

00:20:45.000 Yeah, yeah.

00:20:45.880 No, I've definitely been on those,

00:20:47.300 but I've also been on,

00:20:48.300 I've also been in electric vehicles that can go a lot faster than a golf cart.

00:20:51.840 Yeah, no, I mean, yes, in an urban setting, they might work,

00:20:57.420 but the problem is that their range is very short.

00:21:02.060 And I presume, you know, they take a lot longer to charge

00:21:05.260 than it takes to fill up a tank with gasoline and with diesel fuel.

00:21:11.640 So that means that, you know, the charging time is eating,

00:21:16.760 you know, is eating into the costs of that delivery as well.

00:21:20.260 And the other thing is, where are the,

00:21:22.860 what is the price of electricity going to be?

00:21:25.420 You know, this keeps up.

00:21:27.580 The price of electricity is going to increase

00:21:30.020 because as you said, all this demand for more electricity

00:21:33.660 is going to mean we're going to have to spend a lot of money

00:21:37.080 on new generation.

00:21:38.280 We're going to have to spend a lot of money

00:21:39.880 on increasing our grid lines, transit, you know,

00:21:44.260 for getting the power to where it's needed.

00:21:48.120 And all of that is going to push up the price of electricity.

00:21:52.400 I mean, Ontario was already absorbing, believe it or not,

00:21:56.120 over $10 billion annually in electricity costs

00:22:00.420 to try to keep our electricity prices at reasonable levels

00:22:04.320 so that, you know, people can survive.

00:22:07.660 So if this keeps up, you know,

00:22:11.600 that $10 billion is going to look like some change.

00:22:14.720 It's going to look like a quarter in your pocket.

00:22:17.800 So I'm not convinced that we're on the right path.

00:22:23.140 And yeah, maybe electric vehicles will, you know,

00:22:27.200 will work in certain locations and for certain purposes,

00:22:30.820 but not to the extent that, you know, Mr. Gilbert wants,

00:22:35.360 which is a net zero electricity system

00:22:38.720 and a net zero transportation system.

00:22:41.640 It's just not, you know, feasible in today's environment

00:22:45.480 as far as I'm concerned.

00:22:48.580 All right.

00:22:49.240 That's a good place for us to take a quick break

00:22:51.720 because when I come back,

00:22:53.060 I want to ask you about the follies of having the green grid.

00:22:58.640 And a lot of listeners will be in Ontario.

00:23:02.800 Some won't.

00:23:04.060 But when you look at Germany, you look at Ontario,

00:23:07.380 we, you know, 15 years ago,

00:23:09.280 we went down a certain path, both jurisdictions,

00:23:12.140 and we're paying for it in a big way, as you just explained.

00:23:15.360 So I want to talk about that when we come back with Parker Glenn.

00:23:18.580 Green electricity can sound good,

00:23:36.760 but it doesn't work in all situations.

00:23:40.040 I remember flying into Glasgow years ago

00:23:43.820 and seeing the visual blight that was the hills being covered

00:23:50.400 in the bird choppers that are the windmills.

00:23:55.020 You know, I've seen shorelines destroyed by that.

00:23:58.880 And also they don't deliver quite the way

00:24:02.220 that their advocates claim they do.

00:24:05.640 So, Parker, I want to ask you about this, you know,

00:24:08.360 move to the green grid.

00:24:09.640 We saw that happen in Ontario.

00:24:11.320 We saw that happen in Germany.

00:24:14.740 Germany got rid of an awful lot of its generation capabilities. 0.89

00:24:19.320 Now it's reliant on Russian energy.

00:24:21.820 Now it's trying to scramble to do different things.

00:24:24.940 Ontario, as you say, were subsidizing electricity

00:24:28.240 to the tune of $10 billion a year

00:24:30.940 because the previous government got us

00:24:33.460 into all these long-term contracts that,

00:24:36.320 yeah, they sounded good.

00:24:37.360 They were going to take as green,

00:24:38.480 but they cost an arm and a leg.

00:24:41.520 And so just to make it so that people can afford to live,

00:24:45.520 the tax base is paying a big chunk of that.

00:24:49.100 That's not how things should be.

00:24:52.200 Are we facing the prospect of more green grid follies

00:24:56.420 if we keep going down this path

00:24:58.760 that we were talking about in terms of net zero grid,

00:25:01.900 net zero transportation sector?

00:25:03.440 Oh, for sure.

00:25:06.280 I mean, I think it was a week ago,

00:25:09.820 a couple of weeks ago,

00:25:10.620 I looked at IESO,

00:25:14.280 Materia's grid operator,

00:25:17.960 and they, you know,

00:25:18.960 publish information on hourly basis

00:25:20.680 or minute-by-minute basis.

00:25:22.600 So you can pick it up at any time

00:25:24.700 and look at past information as well.

00:25:29.260 And there was one day earlier this month

00:25:32.500 where the wind wasn't blowing anywhere in the province.

00:25:38.200 And the delivery of electricity

00:25:43.360 by those industrial wind turbines,

00:25:45.820 as I refer to them,

00:25:46.740 I don't call them windmills

00:25:47.940 because windmills are kind of cute.

00:25:49.960 But those industrial wind turbines,

00:25:54.040 they were already operating at 2.8%,

00:25:58.460 no, 1.8% of their capacity.

00:26:01.640 So they were hardly producing any power at all

00:26:05.380 compared to what they should have been producing.

00:26:08.260 And the whole thing is

00:26:09.580 with industrial wind turbines in Ontario

00:26:12.420 and most locations around the world,

00:26:14.480 they generally average about 30%

00:26:18.480 of their capacity delivered over a full year.

00:26:22.660 But sometimes that can be zero

00:26:24.600 and other times it can be as much as 90%.

00:26:27.980 So what, you know,

00:26:30.260 what are we going to do

00:26:31.520 to sort of fill in the blanks, if you will,

00:26:33.760 or what do we do when we've got too much power?

00:26:36.860 Well, you know, in Ontario,

00:26:38.500 we quite often will curtail the wind degeneration

00:26:43.960 or we will simply spill hydro

00:26:47.120 because we don't need the power

00:26:49.400 and the extra power would basically terminate the grid

00:26:53.200 or cause blackouts.

00:26:55.340 So the whole, you know,

00:26:57.360 system operated by IESL

00:27:00.320 has to be fine-tuned, if you will,

00:27:02.980 to sort of accommodate

00:27:04.020 when the wind is blowing

00:27:05.780 and when the sun is shining

00:27:07.560 because we also have, you know, solar panels.

00:27:11.160 If you're going to, I always remember...

00:27:13.400 And for people outside of Ontario,

00:27:16.500 let me just explain.

00:27:17.900 The IESO is the

00:27:19.560 Independent Electricity System Operator, correct?

00:27:23.240 That's correct.

00:27:24.040 Yep, yep, yep.

00:27:25.600 Yeah, and right now,

00:27:27.160 as you and I are speaking,

00:27:28.840 we're looking at

00:27:31.420 generator availability

00:27:33.240 of about 28,000 megawatts

00:27:38.100 and just 293 megawatts coming from solar,

00:27:43.580 3,000 megawatts coming from wind,

00:27:47.700 8.3 thousand coming from nuclear,

00:27:50.840 4.2 from hydro,

00:27:52.080 2,400 from gas

00:27:55.080 gas and 31 megawatts

00:27:57.580 from biofuel.

00:27:58.620 So it's, you know,

00:28:00.360 today's a good windy day, apparently,

00:28:02.160 but it's not a good solar day

00:28:04.380 despite it being sunny outside my window.

00:28:07.000 Yeah, well,

00:28:07.560 you might be, you know,

00:28:09.920 maybe there's cloud covered

00:28:11.060 in a lot of other areas.

00:28:12.340 So you never know that.

00:28:14.160 And that's the problem,

00:28:15.460 is the wind is not

00:28:16.380 going to cooperate

00:28:17.920 as to what part of the grid

00:28:19.420 it's supplying power to.

00:28:20.760 So what that means

00:28:22.540 is basically

00:28:23.140 you have to effectively

00:28:24.260 increase the grid

00:28:25.980 tremendously

00:28:28.120 to be able to move

00:28:29.340 that power around

00:28:30.320 more effectively.

00:28:31.820 And what does that do?

00:28:32.820 Well, that drives up

00:28:33.560 the price of things, right?

00:28:35.340 So everything that's

00:28:37.760 being done

00:28:38.940 in respect to

00:28:39.800 electrifying the grid

00:28:41.180 is going to cost a lot more.

00:28:43.380 And the other alarming thing

00:28:44.960 that has just surfaced

00:28:46.760 very recently

00:28:47.840 out of the United States

00:28:49.060 is that because we're,

00:28:52.400 and that's not just interior,

00:28:53.640 but really around the world,

00:28:56.040 these, I don't know

00:28:56.760 whether you run across them,

00:28:58.700 but best units,

00:28:59.700 they're battery energy storage systems.

00:29:02.720 So the batteries only store power

00:29:05.000 created, right?

00:29:07.020 So you basically store power

00:29:11.360 if you have surplus power

00:29:12.600 produced somewhere

00:29:13.440 from perhaps wind turbines

00:29:15.620 when we don't need it,

00:29:16.760 they'll just charge the batteries.

00:29:19.060 And those batteries

00:29:20.000 can then turn around

00:29:21.080 and produce

00:29:21.760 whatever they're rated at,

00:29:23.820 whatever the megawatt capacity is,

00:29:25.740 for four hours

00:29:27.380 they can produce that capacity,

00:29:29.740 which is, you know,

00:29:30.860 not a heck of a lot,

00:29:32.340 but it's going to add something,

00:29:35.000 you know,

00:29:35.860 some reliability,

00:29:37.120 if you will,

00:29:37.560 to the grid.

00:29:38.880 But the alarming thing

00:29:40.000 about that is,

00:29:41.040 and I think I mentioned

00:29:41.960 Cattell,

00:29:42.700 that Chinese battery manufacturer

00:29:44.940 before,

00:29:46.220 but they,

00:29:47.680 a lot of the units

00:29:49.280 in the United States

00:29:50.260 that are those battery

00:29:51.280 energy storage systems

00:29:52.800 have got their batteries.

00:29:55.580 And of course,

00:29:56.120 the U.S. and China

00:29:57.220 are right now

00:29:57.980 in a bit of an angry mood

00:29:59.960 with each other,

00:30:00.880 and the U.S.

00:30:01.740 is becoming concerned

00:30:03.180 about the capabilities

00:30:04.820 of those batteries

00:30:05.780 and what they might be able

00:30:07.360 to do

00:30:08.040 in terms of,

00:30:09.380 you know,

00:30:10.000 screwing up the grid

00:30:11.060 in the United States,

00:30:12.360 et cetera.

00:30:12.980 So what they've done

00:30:14.720 is they basically,

00:30:16.220 the Department of Defense

00:30:17.400 has said,

00:30:18.540 if you're a company

00:30:20.160 or a local grid operator

00:30:22.500 that is supplying power

00:30:25.640 through the use

00:30:26.420 of these battery energy

00:30:28.900 storage systems

00:30:29.940 and you're using

00:30:30.960 Cattell batteries,

00:30:32.580 we want you

00:30:33.280 to decommission them.

00:30:34.560 So one of the big

00:30:36.100 energy generators

00:30:38.080 in the United States

00:30:38.820 is Duke Energy,

00:30:40.540 and they have

00:30:41.400 just started

00:30:42.500 to decommission

00:30:43.860 all of their best units.

00:30:45.920 And the other

00:30:46.420 interesting thing

00:30:47.720 about that

00:30:48.440 is, of course,

00:30:49.320 Canada and the United States

00:30:50.540 are connected

00:30:53.020 right across the border

00:30:54.860 in terms of inter-tie line.

00:30:57.240 They refer to them

00:30:58.000 as inter-tie line.

00:30:59.180 So we send power

00:31:00.280 if they,

00:31:01.460 you know,

00:31:01.740 to U.S. states.

00:31:03.100 As an example,

00:31:04.520 Michigan and New York

00:31:05.640 get a lot of power

00:31:06.600 from Ontario,

00:31:08.360 as does Quebec.

00:31:09.680 you know,

00:31:11.680 we sell our surplus

00:31:12.660 power through the grid

00:31:14.440 and ship it to them

00:31:16.480 whenever they need it.

00:31:18.500 And anyway,

00:31:19.800 we also have

00:31:21.460 those best units,

00:31:22.660 and my guess

00:31:23.740 is that,

00:31:24.980 well,

00:31:25.600 I know for a fact

00:31:26.600 that NERC,

00:31:27.260 which is the

00:31:27.860 National Energy,

00:31:30.960 I'm trying to think

00:31:31.960 what it's called.

00:31:33.520 Anyway,

00:31:34.040 it's a U.S.

00:31:35.720 operation,

00:31:36.380 and basically

00:31:37.280 it has

00:31:39.620 a relationship

00:31:40.460 with all

00:31:41.240 of the

00:31:41.660 grid operators

00:31:42.900 in Canada

00:31:43.600 where there's

00:31:44.180 inter-tie lines

00:31:45.260 across the border.

00:31:48.600 And

00:31:48.620 that is a,

00:31:51.380 NERC is a

00:31:52.080 federal

00:31:52.680 institution,

00:31:55.180 and it's

00:31:55.700 a law

00:31:56.760 that

00:31:57.880 there can be

00:31:59.120 no security

00:31:59.980 risks

00:32:00.520 under

00:32:01.100 NERC's law.

00:32:03.240 So,

00:32:03.920 you know,

00:32:04.720 what is going

00:32:05.480 to happen

00:32:05.940 now

00:32:06.460 with those

00:32:07.400 best units

00:32:08.140 that have

00:32:08.760 got

00:32:09.020 CATEL

00:32:09.560 batteries

00:32:10.480 in Canada?

00:32:11.980 Is that going

00:32:12.600 to shut down

00:32:13.320 these inter-tie

00:32:14.480 lines between,

00:32:15.600 say,

00:32:16.980 you know,

00:32:17.600 Ontario and

00:32:18.560 Michigan,

00:32:19.200 or Ontario

00:32:19.780 and New York?

00:32:21.420 It's hard to know.

00:32:22.720 And then,

00:32:23.080 you know,

00:32:23.280 you go further

00:32:23.980 out,

00:32:24.300 Saskatchewan

00:32:25.100 and the

00:32:26.340 provinces

00:32:26.740 south of them,

00:32:27.520 and Manitoba.

00:32:28.320 Manitoba says

00:32:28.980 a lot of

00:32:30.160 power,

00:32:31.260 hydropower,

00:32:31.940 to U.S.

00:32:33.400 states under

00:32:34.600 firm contracts.

00:32:36.040 And the same

00:32:36.400 thing with

00:32:36.820 Quebec.

00:32:36.840 British Columbia

00:32:37.560 and Quebec

00:32:38.120 both do.

00:32:39.140 Yeah,

00:32:39.560 exactly.

00:32:40.200 British Columbia

00:32:41.160 and Quebec

00:32:41.600 both sell

00:32:42.700 an amazing

00:32:43.600 amount of

00:32:44.240 electricity

00:32:45.180 south of

00:32:45.740 the border.

00:32:47.820 In terms

00:32:48.880 of

00:32:49.260 Alberta

00:32:50.780 and Saskatchewan,

00:32:51.540 they've been

00:32:52.040 fighting

00:32:52.900 Stephen Guibault

00:32:55.200 quite fiercely

00:32:57.120 on his

00:32:58.740 changes to

00:32:59.460 the electrical

00:33:00.420 grid.

00:33:01.940 is there

00:33:03.920 a danger

00:33:04.660 that,

00:33:05.420 you know,

00:33:06.720 if Guibault

00:33:07.220 isn't stopped,

00:33:08.200 that we end up

00:33:09.120 with sustained

00:33:09.820 damage to

00:33:10.700 the ability

00:33:12.000 of our

00:33:12.380 electrical grid

00:33:13.460 to generate

00:33:14.860 the power

00:33:15.400 that we need

00:33:15.860 for the future?

00:33:17.220 Oh,

00:33:17.400 very definitely,

00:33:18.140 I think.

00:33:18.720 You know,

00:33:19.340 both Saskatchewan

00:33:20.740 and Alberta

00:33:24.200 have the right,

00:33:25.280 you know,

00:33:25.560 to be able

00:33:26.080 to do that.

00:33:26.580 if they're

00:33:28.180 supplying power

00:33:29.000 to their

00:33:29.400 own

00:33:29.740 population,

00:33:31.640 there shouldn't

00:33:33.360 be a cross

00:33:34.020 border,

00:33:35.040 if you will,

00:33:35.620 effect,

00:33:36.060 but of course

00:33:36.540 the Climate

00:33:37.560 Change Act

00:33:38.320 and everything

00:33:38.720 else that has

00:33:39.360 gone on in

00:33:40.080 Canada is

00:33:40.660 federal,

00:33:41.900 as is the

00:33:42.880 fact that if

00:33:43.580 you run

00:33:44.160 intertile lines

00:33:45.340 across the

00:33:46.320 provincial borders,

00:33:47.140 it becomes a

00:33:48.080 federal issue

00:33:49.040 as well.

00:33:50.240 so he can,

00:33:51.160 you know,

00:33:51.460 turn around

00:33:51.960 and set,

00:33:53.660 if you will,

00:33:54.460 write the laws

00:33:55.640 that basically

00:33:56.560 determine what

00:33:58.020 these people can

00:33:58.840 do or can't

00:33:59.620 do.

00:34:00.540 And the

00:34:01.280 regulations that

00:34:02.480 were recently,

00:34:03.520 well,

00:34:03.900 were released

00:34:04.360 last year,

00:34:05.000 I guess,

00:34:05.960 have been revised,

00:34:07.380 but only slightly

00:34:08.380 revised,

00:34:09.720 so they will,

00:34:11.760 you know,

00:34:12.040 if there's a gas

00:34:12.960 generation plant,

00:34:14.000 as an example,

00:34:15.400 that's being built

00:34:16.780 at the present

00:34:17.380 time in either

00:34:18.440 of those

00:34:18.780 provinces,

00:34:19.960 or in Ontario

00:34:21.200 for that matter,

00:34:22.420 that generation 0.76

00:34:23.940 plant,

00:34:24.920 as long as

00:34:25.520 it's up and

00:34:26.100 running by

00:34:27.560 2025,

00:34:30.360 it won't

00:34:30.980 be affected

00:34:31.920 by the

00:34:32.520 shutdown that

00:34:33.660 has been

00:34:34.160 proposed in

00:34:35.000 the original

00:34:35.540 rule,

00:34:36.280 original act,

00:34:37.260 I should say.

00:34:38.400 So it will

00:34:39.280 have,

00:34:39.980 it will be able

00:34:40.680 to extend

00:34:41.220 its life for

00:34:42.020 that 20-year

00:34:42.800 contract period

00:34:43.980 beyond the

00:34:45.180 20,

00:34:45.820 beyond 2025.

00:34:47.340 And it's not

00:34:48.180 clear yet whether

00:34:49.080 that will be

00:34:49.800 extended or

00:34:50.560 not extended.

00:34:52.300 So that's,

00:34:53.980 you know,

00:34:54.160 kind of an

00:34:54.600 interesting issue.

00:34:56.420 The other

00:34:56.820 thing that's

00:34:57.600 come up

00:34:59.540 is there's

00:35:00.980 been changes

00:35:01.580 to the tax

00:35:02.760 system as well,

00:35:03.600 both changes

00:35:04.340 to the tax

00:35:04.880 system as it

00:35:05.980 relates to

00:35:06.640 energy.

00:35:07.100 and one

00:35:08.740 of the things

00:35:09.400 that is

00:35:10.100 being included

00:35:11.220 in these

00:35:11.760 proposed

00:35:12.720 amendments

00:35:13.260 is that

00:35:14.480 if you are

00:35:15.320 a renewable

00:35:15.800 energy

00:35:16.440 operator,

00:35:17.560 you will be

00:35:18.240 able to

00:35:19.000 create

00:35:19.940 carbon credits

00:35:21.560 and you'll be

00:35:22.460 able to sell

00:35:23.080 those to those 0.99

00:35:23.840 nasty people 0.97

00:35:24.660 that are 0.99

00:35:25.300 emitting any

00:35:26.120 kind of

00:35:26.480 emissions at

00:35:27.060 all.

00:35:28.280 It was

00:35:28.800 kind of amusing

00:35:29.940 when I read

00:35:30.900 that.

00:35:31.680 There was a

00:35:32.140 release from

00:35:32.920 the law firm

00:35:34.480 Osler.

00:35:35.440 Anyway,

00:35:36.320 when I read

00:35:37.040 that,

00:35:38.460 I happened

00:35:39.020 to have

00:35:39.420 at the same

00:35:40.860 about

00:35:41.260 the U.S.

00:35:44.820 and the

00:35:45.340 California.

00:35:46.080 That's been

00:35:46.460 going on.

00:35:47.060 They've been

00:35:47.280 allowing credit

00:35:48.540 offsets to

00:35:49.480 be issued

00:35:52.020 for some

00:35:52.520 time.

00:35:52.940 and one

00:35:55.100 of the

00:35:55.380 things that

00:35:56.020 they've done

00:35:56.660 is, of

00:35:57.160 course,

00:35:57.380 Tesla has

00:35:57.920 a huge

00:35:58.400 plant there

00:35:59.040 is they've

00:35:59.800 been handing

00:36:00.240 out these

00:36:00.760 carbon credits

00:36:02.340 to Tesla

00:36:03.120 and Tesla

00:36:04.140 has been

00:36:04.440 selling them

00:36:05.460 like crazy.

00:36:06.980 And I

00:36:07.180 think

00:36:07.400 Stellanus

00:36:08.040 or the

00:36:09.180 U.S.

00:36:10.160 offshoot

00:36:10.600 of Stellanus

00:36:11.320 has signed

00:36:12.340 up for,

00:36:13.100 I think it

00:36:13.820 is like

00:36:14.360 1.2

00:36:18.020 billion dollars

00:36:19.100 of tax

00:36:20.520 credits,

00:36:21.660 carbon credits

00:36:22.740 that they

00:36:23.080 want to

00:36:23.400 buy from

00:36:23.920 Tesla.

00:36:25.360 So I

00:36:25.700 thought

00:36:25.880 curiosity

00:36:27.020 peaked.

00:36:27.780 I decided

00:36:28.960 to look at

00:36:29.540 the financial

00:36:30.100 statements

00:36:30.820 for Tesla

00:36:32.240 recently.

00:36:33.580 And then

00:36:33.780 in the

00:36:34.540 first

00:36:35.420 three quarters

00:36:37.000 of 2023,

00:36:38.660 they picked

00:36:39.560 up literally

00:36:40.540 about

00:36:41.100 a billion

00:36:42.480 300 million

00:36:43.820 in the

00:36:45.760 revenue

00:36:46.120 from selling

00:36:47.300 carbon credits

00:36:48.120 to various

00:36:48.880 companies

00:36:51.120 that have

00:36:52.600 to buy

00:36:53.440 them.

00:36:53.820 That's

00:36:54.260 got to

00:36:54.480 be as

00:36:54.800 lucrative

00:36:55.220 if not

00:36:55.980 more lucrative

00:36:56.760 than selling

00:36:57.640 their cars.

00:36:59.240 Yeah,

00:36:59.640 right,

00:37:00.180 for sure.

00:37:01.980 So anyway,

00:37:02.500 I mean,

00:37:02.700 there's so

00:37:03.000 many things

00:37:03.500 that are

00:37:03.720 going on,

00:37:04.720 it's hard

00:37:05.140 to keep

00:37:05.500 track of

00:37:06.040 them all.

00:37:07.360 And,

00:37:07.720 you know,

00:37:08.520 I just

00:37:09.660 can't believe

00:37:10.300 it.

00:37:10.480 I just

00:37:10.720 see it.

00:37:11.140 let me

00:37:12.760 ask you

00:37:13.120 about the

00:37:13.720 push to

00:37:15.260 get battery

00:37:15.940 plants

00:37:16.520 into Canada

00:37:18.400 or the

00:37:20.400 battery

00:37:21.880 manufacturers

00:37:22.700 into this,

00:37:24.400 into our

00:37:27.220 system.

00:37:30.780 You're talking

00:37:31.480 the Volkswagen?

00:37:31.880 Canada in the

00:37:32.720 grand scheme

00:37:33.120 of things,

00:37:34.620 Volkswagen,

00:37:35.560 Stellantis,

00:37:36.120 I'm

00:37:38.320 forgetting

00:37:38.620 some of

00:37:39.000 the other

00:37:39.260 companies.

00:37:39.820 There's a

00:37:40.560 parts maker

00:37:41.440 out towards

00:37:42.720 Belleville,

00:37:44.380 Kingston area.

00:37:45.980 Yeah.

00:37:46.560 Yeah,

00:37:46.920 and you've

00:37:47.960 got a bunch

00:37:48.360 of these.

00:37:50.240 And in

00:37:52.720 the grand

00:37:53.080 scheme of

00:37:53.560 things,

00:37:54.000 Canada is a 0.90

00:37:54.680 small player

00:37:55.240 and we are

00:37:56.460 not going

00:37:57.200 to,

00:37:59.500 you know,

00:37:59.920 we could

00:38:00.640 abandon

00:38:01.120 the decree

00:38:05.280 that we've

00:38:05.780 got to

00:38:06.340 have all

00:38:06.840 vehicles

00:38:07.500 electric by

00:38:08.100 2035

00:38:08.900 tomorrow.

00:38:10.640 And if

00:38:12.060 the United

00:38:12.480 States stayed

00:38:13.260 on it,

00:38:14.020 if California

00:38:15.240 stayed on

00:38:16.000 it,

00:38:17.120 the industry

00:38:19.240 would still

00:38:19.700 be going

00:38:20.100 that way.

00:38:21.140 And that's

00:38:21.800 why I'm

00:38:22.980 not opposed

00:38:23.620 to the

00:38:25.660 governments

00:38:26.140 of the day

00:38:26.660 trying to

00:38:27.040 say,

00:38:27.240 all right,

00:38:27.500 well,

00:38:27.640 if you're

00:38:27.840 going to

00:38:28.000 go electric,

00:38:29.220 we want

00:38:29.760 part of

00:38:30.200 that.

00:38:30.440 We want

00:38:31.460 to stay

00:38:31.840 in the

00:38:32.080 manufacturing

00:38:32.620 business.

00:38:33.240 You know,

00:38:33.380 Ontario has

00:38:34.420 been for

00:38:35.440 more than

00:38:35.860 a century,

00:38:36.480 well more

00:38:36.860 than a

00:38:37.160 century,

00:38:38.060 central to

00:38:38.900 auto

00:38:39.340 manufacturing.

00:38:41.300 And you

00:38:42.020 want to

00:38:42.440 keep that.

00:38:44.060 But

00:38:44.240 will there

00:38:47.820 be enough

00:38:49.200 demand to

00:38:51.460 keep this

00:38:52.620 going?

00:38:53.680 Or,

00:38:54.160 you know,

00:38:55.740 are we going

00:38:56.940 to eventually

00:38:57.460 end up where

00:38:58.500 Toyota is

00:38:59.480 right now?

00:38:59.940 Toyota is

00:39:01.520 one of the

00:39:01.960 world's

00:39:02.240 leading

00:39:02.560 manufacturers

00:39:03.200 of

00:39:03.440 automobiles,

00:39:04.080 and they

00:39:04.300 have been

00:39:04.640 more along

00:39:05.260 the lines

00:39:05.680 of,

00:39:06.480 you know

00:39:06.700 what,

00:39:06.980 we're going

00:39:07.280 to stick

00:39:07.560 with hybrids

00:39:08.260 for now.

00:39:09.140 We don't

00:39:09.560 think that

00:39:10.100 we need

00:39:10.440 to go

00:39:10.800 full EV.

00:39:12.260 We think

00:39:12.860 there needs

00:39:13.240 to be a

00:39:13.640 bridge.

00:39:14.120 We're not

00:39:14.440 there yet.

00:39:15.740 What are

00:39:16.320 your thoughts

00:39:16.820 on both

00:39:17.780 the federal

00:39:18.300 and the

00:39:18.920 Ontario

00:39:19.280 provincial

00:39:19.720 government

00:39:20.180 putting in

00:39:21.480 a lot of

00:39:21.940 effort?

00:39:22.740 Not

00:39:23.220 necessarily

00:39:23.720 money,

00:39:24.180 because it's

00:39:24.520 production tax

00:39:25.300 credits,

00:39:25.640 you only get

00:39:27.100 the tax

00:39:27.500 break if

00:39:27.900 you make

00:39:28.220 it,

00:39:28.440 but what

00:39:29.180 do you

00:39:29.380 make of

00:39:29.880 the push

00:39:30.740 to keep

00:39:31.640 this

00:39:32.040 manufacturing

00:39:33.060 in this

00:39:34.300 country as

00:39:34.800 opposed to

00:39:35.220 just saying,

00:39:36.000 you know what,

00:39:36.420 let it go

00:39:36.880 wherever?

00:39:37.860 Well, I

00:39:39.580 mean, I

00:39:39.860 think, you

00:39:40.460 know, the

00:39:40.860 auto industry

00:39:41.740 in Ontario

00:39:42.340 has been an

00:39:42.900 important

00:39:43.320 employment

00:39:45.780 area for

00:39:47.700 many, many

00:39:48.720 years, for

00:39:49.360 decades, and

00:39:50.720 I think it's

00:39:51.240 important that

00:39:51.880 we recognize

00:39:52.480 that.

00:39:53.120 I'm not

00:39:53.560 sure that,

00:39:55.540 you know, by

00:39:56.160 producing those

00:39:58.020 electric batteries

00:39:59.020 that's going to

00:39:59.760 place us in a

00:40:01.140 great position.

00:40:02.000 That's not

00:40:02.380 producing the

00:40:04.100 automobile,

00:40:04.600 that's producing

00:40:05.060 the battery,

00:40:05.900 right?

00:40:06.080 And what

00:40:09.260 we really

00:40:09.680 want to do

00:40:10.180 is assemble

00:40:10.760 them up

00:40:11.520 here, and

00:40:11.860 that's what,

00:40:12.520 you know, most

00:40:13.260 of our

00:40:13.540 activity is,

00:40:14.580 and there's

00:40:15.400 some, you

00:40:16.620 know, a lot

00:40:17.060 of smaller,

00:40:17.940 medium-sized

00:40:18.540 parts.

00:40:18.640 Most of our

00:40:19.080 activity is

00:40:19.680 actually parts.

00:40:23.060 Yeah, but...

00:40:25.440 Yeah, that's

00:40:26.320 bigger now than

00:40:27.160 the manufacturing,

00:40:29.620 is the parts.

00:40:30.900 Yes, right.

00:40:31.840 There's a lot

00:40:32.260 of parts that,

00:40:32.960 as I said,

00:40:33.520 you know, come

00:40:34.020 from the small,

00:40:34.740 medium-sized

00:40:35.380 manufacturers spread

00:40:37.180 throughout the

00:40:37.660 province, and

00:40:38.720 that's really

00:40:39.140 important to

00:40:39.780 keeping, you

00:40:40.560 know, our

00:40:40.840 employment levels

00:40:41.660 in that area,

00:40:44.060 right?

00:40:45.420 But as I

00:40:46.180 said, you

00:40:47.320 know, manufacturing

00:40:48.100 the batteries

00:40:48.740 is, you

00:40:50.220 know, if there's

00:40:51.180 no sales

00:40:52.360 happening, we're

00:40:53.660 going to be

00:40:53.920 manufacturing

00:40:54.500 something that's

00:40:55.540 not in demand,

00:40:56.600 and that's my

00:40:57.200 concern.

00:40:58.180 If you look at

00:40:58.780 the U.S., I

00:40:59.680 think I was

00:41:00.280 looking recently

00:41:01.140 in sort of,

00:41:03.080 I don't know,

00:41:03.400 it was national

00:41:04.100 data, but

00:41:05.040 most of the

00:41:06.500 automobile

00:41:08.600 dealers are

00:41:09.580 complaining that

00:41:10.800 they've got a

00:41:11.300 100-day supply

00:41:12.560 of EVs, but

00:41:14.020 they've only got

00:41:14.540 a, you know,

00:41:15.080 40- or 50-day

00:41:16.120 supply of

00:41:17.500 ICEs, you 1.00

00:41:20.040 know.

00:41:21.040 So those

00:41:23.200 electric vehicles

00:41:24.200 are not selling

00:41:25.280 at the present

00:41:26.000 time.

00:41:26.620 So what are we

00:41:27.300 doing?

00:41:27.880 And if they're

00:41:28.900 not selling,

00:41:29.700 they're not

00:41:29.980 going to need

00:41:30.340 batteries, you

00:41:31.500 know, in the

00:41:31.820 manufacturing,

00:41:32.820 where they're

00:41:33.180 actually

00:41:33.440 manufactured,

00:41:34.360 they're not

00:41:34.500 going to need

00:41:34.740 the batteries.

00:41:35.800 So why are we

00:41:36.440 getting into the

00:41:37.060 battery business?

00:41:38.360 I mean, that's,

00:41:39.800 you know, we're

00:41:40.180 shooting ourselves

00:41:40.900 in the foot, 0.68

00:41:41.880 and, you

00:41:43.040 know, the price

00:41:43.500 of lithium has

00:41:44.460 dropped through

00:41:45.040 the floor, as a

00:41:46.680 lot of the

00:41:47.200 other, you know,

00:41:48.640 primary materials

00:41:49.760 have as well

00:41:50.580 associated with

00:41:51.800 battery production.

00:41:53.260 So I'm not

00:41:54.320 sure we picked

00:41:55.380 the right, you

00:41:56.760 know, area to

00:41:57.660 throw a lot of

00:41:58.980 our tax dollars

00:41:59.920 at.

00:42:00.380 I mean, the

00:42:00.720 other thing that

00:42:01.180 happened, of

00:42:01.800 course, and

00:42:02.220 this has been

00:42:03.860 under the

00:42:04.280 table, is

00:42:04.900 that Stellanus

00:42:06.740 and VW

00:42:07.880 both got

00:42:08.700 big tax

00:42:09.840 breaks.

00:42:10.300 They're not

00:42:10.600 going to be

00:42:11.060 paying the

00:42:11.660 same rates

00:42:12.380 for those

00:42:14.200 operations as

00:42:15.680 anybody else

00:42:16.680 in the

00:42:16.940 business.

00:42:17.880 They're going

00:42:18.220 to be paying

00:42:18.620 a lot less.

00:42:19.080 So, well, my

00:42:20.080 argument on

00:42:22.260 that, having

00:42:22.820 read the, so

00:42:24.360 first off, that

00:42:25.120 only stays in

00:42:26.280 effect if the

00:42:27.040 Inflation Reduction

00:42:27.960 Act in the

00:42:28.560 state stays in

00:42:29.240 place, which

00:42:30.280 hopefully it

00:42:31.080 disappears, because

00:42:32.580 even Democrats

00:42:33.280 are against it

00:42:34.160 in the U.S.

00:42:35.180 now.

00:42:36.060 But if it

00:42:37.120 stays in

00:42:37.660 place, it's

00:42:39.000 roughly a 25%

00:42:40.440 reduction in

00:42:41.460 the tax rate.

00:42:42.900 So my view

00:42:44.440 is that 75%

00:42:46.220 of something

00:42:46.820 big is better

00:42:47.740 than 100%

00:42:49.100 of nothing.

00:42:49.700 EV sales

00:42:53.580 are going to

00:42:54.760 take off.

00:42:54.940 So I said, if

00:42:55.940 EV sales don't

00:42:58.220 take off, what's

00:43:00.360 going to happen?

00:43:00.960 There's going to

00:43:01.320 be layoffs in

00:43:02.160 those plants,

00:43:02.900 right?

00:43:03.160 There's not

00:43:03.700 going to be

00:43:04.020 demand for

00:43:04.780 those batteries

00:43:05.460 that are

00:43:06.340 eventually going

00:43:06.940 to be generated

00:43:07.780 and produced.

00:43:09.360 I don't think

00:43:12.080 that they'll

00:43:12.540 ever get to

00:43:13.220 the, you

00:43:14.160 know, we've

00:43:14.500 heard of the

00:43:14.900 12 and the

00:43:15.680 $13 billion

00:43:16.480 in, you

00:43:18.440 know, credits

00:43:20.080 to them.

00:43:20.500 I don't think

00:43:20.880 they'll ever get

00:43:21.480 there because

00:43:21.940 one, you 0.71

00:43:23.040 know, as we

00:43:23.380 discussed

00:43:23.740 earlier, we

00:43:24.580 don't have

00:43:26.080 access to the

00:43:26.780 minerals, whether

00:43:28.500 it's from the

00:43:29.200 rain of fire or

00:43:30.180 from the

00:43:30.580 salt and sea in

00:43:31.260 California or

00:43:32.100 from China, we

00:43:33.320 don't have access

00:43:33.940 to enough

00:43:34.400 minerals to

00:43:35.000 make that many

00:43:35.640 batteries.

00:43:37.100 And as you

00:43:38.380 say, the

00:43:38.900 demand is

00:43:40.140 going down.

00:43:42.080 My brother-in-law

00:43:42.940 is a gearhead.

00:43:43.840 he, you

00:43:45.520 know, he

00:43:45.740 raises

00:43:46.040 motorcycles, he's

00:43:47.180 got high-end

00:43:47.920 trucks, he put

00:43:49.220 a deposit down

00:43:50.640 on an F-150

00:43:52.200 Lightning EV

00:43:53.240 and then, you

00:43:56.020 know, after

00:43:56.360 more than a

00:43:56.920 year withdrew

00:43:57.420 it because he's

00:43:59.020 never going to

00:43:59.500 get the truck

00:44:00.160 and there

00:44:03.240 appear to be

00:44:03.800 problems with

00:44:04.500 it.

00:44:05.440 Yeah.

00:44:06.960 I mean, that's

00:44:07.960 the other issue

00:44:08.660 is that these

00:44:09.840 are all new

00:44:10.460 models and

00:44:11.160 they, you

00:44:11.620 know, quite

00:44:12.520 often new

00:44:13.120 models are,

00:44:13.840 have, have

00:44:15.260 problems at

00:44:15.900 the start

00:44:16.260 for the first

00:44:17.040 few years.

00:44:17.880 But if the

00:44:18.680 sales don't 1.00

00:44:19.400 take off, that

00:44:20.200 means there's

00:44:21.180 going to be

00:44:21.420 less of a

00:44:22.540 need or a

00:44:24.940 wish on the

00:44:25.680 part of those

00:44:26.220 manufacturers to

00:44:27.360 try to correct

00:44:28.240 those problems.

00:44:30.580 You know, so I,

00:44:31.460 I mean...

00:44:31.940 All right, Parker,

00:44:32.620 I'll, I'll

00:44:33.080 rephrase, I'll

00:44:36.100 rephrase the

00:44:36.660 question that I

00:44:37.280 started off with

00:44:38.480 and I asked

00:44:40.380 you at the

00:44:40.680 start, is the

00:44:42.160 future electric?

00:44:43.840 And so now I'm

00:44:44.700 going to ask

00:44:45.220 you, is the

00:44:48.360 future electric?

00:44:49.240 And if not,

00:44:50.100 what is it?

00:44:51.220 What are we

00:44:51.920 looking at in

00:44:52.940 terms of the

00:44:54.060 automobile?

00:44:54.900 Have our

00:44:55.280 politicians gotten

00:44:56.280 it wrong?

00:44:57.220 Has the CEO of

00:44:58.180 Toyota gotten

00:44:59.620 it right with

00:45:00.380 his push towards

00:45:01.660 hybrid technology?

00:45:02.800 where, what is

00:45:04.480 the future?

00:45:06.960 You know, when

00:45:08.080 it comes to, I

00:45:08.940 know our

00:45:09.260 conversation is

00:45:10.020 about, been about

00:45:10.740 much more than

00:45:11.320 automobiles, but

00:45:12.360 that's a big focus

00:45:13.220 of all of this.

00:45:14.520 So specifically

00:45:15.440 with automobiles,

00:45:16.420 what is the

00:45:17.000 future?

00:45:18.220 Well, my, my

00:45:19.180 view is that,

00:45:20.120 yeah, hybrids

00:45:20.840 make a lot of

00:45:21.560 sense.

00:45:22.660 And Toyota have

00:45:25.240 a lot of smart

00:45:25.840 people.

00:45:26.400 I mean, they're

00:45:26.800 the biggest

00:45:27.320 automobile

00:45:28.120 manufacturer in

00:45:29.260 the world now.

00:45:30.080 So the reason

00:45:31.300 why is because

00:45:32.060 they've always

00:45:32.720 you know, headed

00:45:33.420 in the right

00:45:33.840 direction and

00:45:34.600 have recognized

00:45:35.920 how things are

00:45:37.160 changing or what

00:45:38.760 will be accepted

00:45:39.720 or what will be

00:45:40.580 rejected.

00:45:41.900 And that's, you

00:45:43.520 know, my belief

00:45:44.380 is that they have

00:45:45.420 a group of people

00:45:47.000 that are very

00:45:47.640 smart that are

00:45:48.920 planning their

00:45:49.560 future.

00:45:50.680 And I think, you

00:45:51.780 know, hybrids make 1.00

00:45:52.680 a lot more sense

00:45:53.960 than just straight

00:45:55.000 EVs.

00:45:55.960 Hope you enjoyed

00:45:56.740 this conversation

00:45:57.460 with Parker

00:45:58.000 Glunt.

00:45:58.620 We hope that you

00:45:59.220 will send some

00:46:00.100 feedback.

00:46:00.620 Let us know

00:46:01.000 what your

00:46:01.380 thoughts, what

00:46:01.980 works for you,

00:46:03.040 what doesn't.

00:46:04.340 Full Comment is a

00:46:05.260 post-media podcast.

00:46:06.500 I'm Brian Lilly,

00:46:07.320 your host.

00:46:08.040 This episode was

00:46:08.960 produced by Andre

00:46:09.740 Pru with theme

00:46:10.500 music by Bryce

00:46:11.360 Hall.

00:46:11.720 Kevin Libin is the

00:46:12.740 executive producer.

00:46:13.960 Remember, you can

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00:46:28.220 Thanks for listening.

00:46:29.140 Until next time,

00:46:30.000 I'm Brian Lilly.

00:46:31.980 I'll see you soon.

00:46:38.820 Bye.

00:46:39.860 Bye.

00:46:44.660 Bye.

Full Comment - March 04, 2024

We're getting zapped by Guilbeault's radical, no-fuel, electrified future

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