Full Comment - May 27, 2024


We’re under attack from Chinese electric cars


Episode Stats


Length

50 minutes

Words per minute

162.11307

Word count

8,210

Sentence count

546

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

12

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Flavio Volpe is the President of the Auto Parts Manufacturers Association of Canada and has been at all of the big announcements that have been made with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ontario Premier Doug Ford regarding investment in the EV sector in this country.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:53.500 The Biden administration in Washington has definitely been pushing electric vehicles for some time.
00:00:59.500 In fact, they've been in competition with Canada on that front.
00:01:02.880 But just recently, they announced that they were going to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
00:01:11.500 What's the reasoning behind that?
00:01:12.860 What does it mean for Canada's industry?
00:01:14.420 What does it mean for Canadian consumers?
00:01:16.580 That's what we're going to talk about today on the Full Comment Podcast.
00:01:19.480 Hello.
00:01:20.020 My name's Brian Lilly.
00:01:21.080 This is the Full Comment Podcast.
00:01:22.420 And today, a guest who knows all about the auto industry, inside and out, it's Flavio Volpe.
00:01:28.740 He is the president of the Auto Parts Manufacturers Association of Canada.
00:01:32.260 He is someone who has been at all of the big announcements that you've seen with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,
00:01:37.360 with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, regarding investment in the EV sector in this country.
00:01:42.520 But, Flavio, well, first off, thanks for the time.
00:01:45.440 But I want to start with this Biden move.
00:01:49.220 It surprised me a little bit.
00:01:51.060 There was a 25% tariff on electric vehicles coming out of China.
00:01:55.960 Now it's going to 100%.
00:01:57.920 What's the reasoning?
00:02:00.880 It may not be enough, to be honest.
00:02:02.160 We're dealing with a geopolitical adversary who's been preparing for the last couple of decades
00:02:13.780 to put themselves in a position to have advantages in advanced manufacturing over the Western sphere.
00:02:21.900 They do it with cheap and sometimes forced labor.
00:02:26.360 They do it with environmental regulations be damned.
00:02:32.160 And by that, you mean they either don't have them or they ignore them?
00:02:38.780 Well, you know, they're very clever.
00:02:40.480 They have them.
00:02:41.200 And then when the national interest is at play, like, hey, by the way, let's build a plant for Tesla in Shanghai
00:02:47.820 and get it up and running within a year.
00:02:49.700 Well, we're not really worried about local regs and environmental concerns and displacement of other interests.
00:03:00.040 We just, boom, get it done.
00:03:02.160 You know, they've invested quite heavily in all the raw materials and primary materials that go into making cars.
00:03:10.220 And so they are the world's leaders in cheap steel and cheap aluminum and cheap lithium and cheap rubber and cheap everything.
00:03:18.840 And so they put together cars that the West taught them how to build over the last 20 years
00:03:25.080 and big joint ventures with companies like Volkswagen and Stellantis and General Motors.
00:03:33.340 And Tesla.
00:03:34.140 Now they're ready to flood.
00:03:35.180 Yeah, and Tesla.
00:03:36.140 Now they're ready to flood the market with cars.
00:03:40.140 You know, I talked to someone today.
00:03:41.220 I said, oh, well, why shouldn't we have access to that BYD vehicle that's $15,000?
00:03:49.300 And I said, well, why don't you ask yourself why it's $15,000?
00:03:52.480 That's not even the price of the battery.
00:03:55.940 Who are you getting into bed with?
00:03:58.320 So there's a phrase that you used just a moment ago that I want you to expand upon.
00:04:04.880 You said advanced manufacturing.
00:04:06.840 Now we've known for a long time that China has used their industrial might to ship over all kinds of manufactured products for us.
00:04:16.700 Try going shopping for any kitchenwares.
00:04:21.300 You know, you need something for your kitchen.
00:04:23.480 You need a new mixing bowl.
00:04:25.700 You need a utensil.
00:04:26.980 You need a small appliance.
00:04:29.220 You need baking sheet.
00:04:30.480 It doesn't matter.
00:04:31.940 It's going to be hard to find something not made in China.
00:04:35.260 Even the big European brands on things like knives have lower tier versions of their products made in China.
00:04:43.800 But that's low-end manufacturing.
00:04:47.680 Explain why it's important about the advanced manufacturing.
00:04:50.500 Well, they learned over the last 25, 30 years how to be efficient at volume manufacturing on very specific items.
00:05:02.360 You know, all the knick-knacks that we all need to live a functional life.
00:05:06.980 You know, the kind of stuff that you run out to Walmart for.
00:05:11.160 The commoditized goods.
00:05:12.600 In our business, we call them the one-shot molds, you know.
00:05:16.880 They got really good at making the molds to make the plastic goods or the tools to make the metallic goods.
00:05:25.280 But, you know, they invested quite heavily in electronics, complex sub-assemblies like electric motors.
00:05:37.660 You know, all those toys and those ceiling fans that you bought all have motors in them.
00:05:42.820 And electric motors are a rather simple device.
00:05:44.500 You know, you've got reverse polarity and an electromagnet and a rod in the middle and a casting.
00:05:53.600 You know, it's not too different, the motor that is running in your electric vehicle than it is running in, you know, the toys you played with when you were growing up.
00:06:04.380 They positioned themselves well for the West to outsource as much of the manufacturing that we could to drive costs down in an uber-competitive, market-driven global economy.
00:06:22.660 They learned from us.
00:06:24.640 They learned that we did not have the raw materials required to feed the beast.
00:06:30.920 That's plastics, metals, rare earths, critical minerals.
00:06:36.100 And they had them.
00:06:37.120 They learned that we take 8, 12, 15 years for some approvals because, you know, we have not just economic stewardship here.
00:06:50.100 We have environmental stewardship, community stewardship.
00:06:52.940 You know, if you're going to do a major mining project of any kind in Canada, you know, there's lots of steps,
00:06:59.140 including dealing with indigenous communities and affected communities.
00:07:04.020 So they said, well, what if we threw the state behind just getting it done in China?
00:07:10.780 Oh, we've got some veins of lithium on this plot.
00:07:14.040 Just get the excavator out. 0.95
00:07:16.720 Get the rocks out.
00:07:18.240 You know, not to be flippant, but, you know, if China discovered that there was valuable minerals under a specific village,
00:07:29.940 I would see them moving the entire village just to get at them.
00:07:34.060 Yeah, they have a history of doing what they need to do to focus on their objective,
00:07:40.120 which is affecting the global balance of power, becoming the world's most important superpower.
00:07:48.040 They're, you know, in the past, you do gunboat diplomacy.
00:07:51.260 See here, what they've done is it's economic extortion in some cases, giving you cheap money and cheap goods,
00:08:05.020 putting their money in their, you know, infrastructure initiatives around the world in places where,
00:08:11.180 unfortunately, the U.S. and the West pulled out after the Soviet era ended,
00:08:16.720 and Chinese money has flown into Africa, it's flown into Central America, it's flown into Eastern Europe and all over South Asia.
00:08:25.620 And they are more focused than we are because it isn't about cars for them.
00:08:34.460 It certainly isn't about clean cars for them.
00:08:36.640 It's about affecting the global balance of power in their favor.
00:08:41.520 And we naively walked into the bus saw that we ordered at a cheap price.
00:08:49.300 Now, in terms of global balance of power, just being dominant in manufacturing is simply part of that, correct?
00:08:58.980 So this is part of a long-term plan.
00:09:02.860 It's not just about being dominant in the EV sector, although that's the current discussion we're having.
00:09:09.280 It's about being dominant everywhere, having control.
00:09:15.640 Yeah, that's right.
00:09:16.340 I think, like, you know, I don't want to moralize and fault them for wanting to have a preeminent position.
00:09:22.840 I'm certainly not naive to the fact that that's what they're looking for.
00:09:25.880 You know, when we, let's say, for example, as everything digitizes around the planet, goods, the way they interact, security, everything else,
00:09:36.240 one of the core products is semiconductors.
00:09:39.080 And we've had a semiconductor crisis over the last couple of years brought on by the global pandemic.
00:09:44.580 But we all rely, both in China and in the West, on an incredible cluster of semiconductor manufacturer in Taiwan,
00:09:55.160 which is a highly contested subject in Beijing.
00:09:58.780 Is Taiwan a Chinese province or is Taiwan, as the West says, its own country?
00:10:05.540 We are all vulnerable, both sides of the equation, to if we lost access to Taiwanese semiconductors before we build up our own capacity,
00:10:18.280 we'll all have a problem.
00:10:21.260 You know, the machines you and I are using to talk to each other are dependent on that capacity.
00:10:27.020 Well, look at how China is acting geopolitically with Taiwan.
00:10:33.680 Look what they did with Hong Kong during the pandemic.
00:10:38.160 You know, they're no longer worried that the Americans might send the Seventh Fleet through the Taiwan Strait.
00:10:47.960 They are forcing recognition around the world that, well, maybe China does have a point. 0.91
00:10:54.220 Maybe the Taiwanese are with them. 1.00
00:10:55.720 They've got Joe Biden last year saying, well, if the Chinese invaded Taiwan, they would be met militarily by the U.S.
00:11:05.420 and then the White House walking that back in a week.
00:11:07.500 That's power.
00:11:08.780 That's the growth of Chinese soft power based on the strength of the Chinese economic power.
00:11:17.340 We are indebted.
00:11:18.420 The world is indebted to this Chinese base and we act differently. 1.00
00:11:21.680 And so they've got this new car.
00:11:25.120 So Canada, the United States in the middle of revamping to the future electric model.
00:11:31.500 And we'll talk about the controversy around that because I know some listeners are yelling as they're listening to you.
00:11:36.800 And I talk, these don't work.
00:11:38.840 I'm never going to drive.
00:11:39.880 And we know that we'll get into that in a minute.
00:11:42.020 But let's just look at it from a geopolitical point of view still.
00:11:47.800 And, you know, over the weekend, a piece moved on the wires from Associated Press that was just glowing about the $12,000 U.S.
00:11:59.900 or about $16,000 Canadian Seagull by BYD.
00:12:03.940 That's the $15,000 odd vehicle that you mentioned earlier.
00:12:07.380 And they've got a cheaper one for shorter range that costs under $10,000 U.S.
00:12:12.800 And they're talking about how beautifully it's made and it's wonderful.
00:12:17.640 These are vehicles that China is literally making to flood the world market. 0.86
00:12:23.180 There was a story in Le Monde out of Paris last week about how Antwerp, the port in Antwerp in Belgium, is just flooded with these vehicles.
00:12:37.280 And some of them will sit there for a year.
00:12:39.600 And why are they there?
00:12:40.440 Because China has a goal of achieving 25% minimum of the European electric vehicle market.
00:12:48.100 And so they're subsidized.
00:12:49.660 Like, why are the cars so cheap?
00:12:51.000 Because the government is subsidizing them.
00:12:54.620 And they want us to be beholden to them for our future vehicles and our future manufacturing.
00:13:02.720 Yeah, it's the old, you know, I grew up at a time when we said, say no to drugs.
00:13:06.600 And, you know, all the different PSAs of like, oh, your pusher's going to give you some for free.
00:13:15.060 The first one's on me.
00:13:16.280 Well, that's what this is.
00:13:17.060 How does a vehicle that has the same dimensions and presumably meets the same crash and safety standards and standards on the chemistry and the metallurgy cost less than the bill of materials for the competition?
00:13:35.100 People don't ask themselves what they're getting in return in exchange for this deal.
00:13:43.560 And, you know, that's a typical consumer.
00:13:45.900 You know, look, we're in tough times.
00:13:47.940 Money's tight.
00:13:48.860 The cost of money's high.
00:13:49.840 If you can relieve some of my burden, I'll take it.
00:13:54.980 And that's what they're doing.
00:13:57.480 They're putting that out on offer.
00:14:00.540 These aren't, you know, I keep listening to people.
00:14:03.960 I've done a bunch of interviews the last few days where they say, well, the environmental lobby says this is really good for the environment.
00:14:10.600 And you're just an automotive lobbyist who is trying to help the fat cats keep eating.
00:14:18.060 And that's, well, you know, I represent a business where the profit margins are in low to mid single digits and who are beholden for electronics, for raw materials to the Chinese already.
00:14:30.020 And we have a very healthy regulatory environment here in Canada and the U.S.
00:14:36.720 The rules are very straightforward and you can't break them without major penalty.
00:14:43.140 And we're up against China Inc.
00:14:45.300 These are state-owned enterprises who are saying, hey, by the way, what, you guys are being naive?
00:14:49.760 I just sold your family and friends a vehicle that's going to put you out of business.
00:14:56.520 So you have been, I mentioned off the top that you've been under all the big EV announcements with Prime Minister Trudeau, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
00:15:08.140 You've lobbied for the EV sector in this country.
00:15:12.540 I'm not calling you a fat cat lobbyist like those critics, Flavio, but.
00:15:16.860 I used to be skinnier. 0.88
00:15:18.460 But yeah.
00:15:19.380 So did we all.
00:15:20.780 Yeah.
00:15:21.560 But you've been at these events and you've been supportive.
00:15:24.520 But now you've been critical of the Trudeau government's policy on how fast we have to go to electric vehicles because you've said that it's going too fast.
00:15:37.680 Is your worry that we're all going to run out and buy the, buy these BYD or other Chinese vehicles that are cheap and cheerful and we'll get the job done.
00:15:51.780 But then you're kind of locked into it.
00:15:53.560 It's like when you, when you choose your phone, is it Apple or is it Android?
00:15:57.260 And then you're locked into that system.
00:15:59.140 And then when you go to replace it, well, you're going to replace it with what already exists.
00:16:04.300 And so, you know, the Trudeau government has spent a lot of money, time and capital trying to attract investment here.
00:16:11.660 And yet they're turning around and bringing in regulations that will, if it goes through, forces all to buy a Chinese product before the Canadian product's ready.
00:16:25.620 Yeah.
00:16:26.100 That's at the core of it.
00:16:27.080 And, you know, like I, you know, I think people know me as championing the EV manufacturer in Canada, but I want to be specific.
00:16:35.420 I'm a car guy.
00:16:36.080 I am championing the, the, the auto industry in Canada, the governments around the world.
00:16:42.980 And then car makers around the world have said, governments have said, we've got to go to zero emissions and there are no exceptions.
00:16:49.020 Car makers around the world said, yep, we'll do it faster than you.
00:16:52.600 And we'll do it faster.
00:16:53.340 They all lined up to do it in Canada.
00:16:55.580 We don't have a Canadian automaker.
00:16:56.980 We make 2 million cars here, but those are, those are companies are headquartered in Tokyo and Detroit and Paris.
00:17:02.840 And so I represent the parts suppliers who supply all this production.
00:17:07.760 And what we've said to the government is we can only make what the car makers order.
00:17:14.360 And we have constantly pitched our latest technologies, lightweighting, high voltage.
00:17:22.740 Some of the, you know, powertrain suppliers said, well, we make engines for you.
00:17:26.580 We can make motors for you.
00:17:27.500 We built Project Arrow.
00:17:29.380 And some of your listeners might know about that.
00:17:31.340 Projectarrow.ca.
00:17:32.200 We built a, a, a 100% Canadian car set for the screens.
00:17:36.980 I couldn't get screens from anywhere but China.
00:17:38.860 Um, bumper to bumper, working prototype to, to highlight, you know, um, you know, the, the, the entire landscape of Canadian technology that can serve the world's EV, um, uh, supply chain.
00:17:52.780 But, um, um, the government's been very good in supporting, you know, on, and all these announcements that you talk about industry, Canada and finance have really said, okay, fine.
00:18:02.940 Uh, we would like the people who are making cars here now and supplying cars and assembling them and doing the, the raw materials, those Canadians to be the Canadians that make, um, uh, EVs.
00:18:15.220 Let's just help those companies transition.
00:18:17.080 But the environment department has said, oh, well, let's force the market to, let's say a hundred percent of the sales in Canada by 2035 must be electric.
00:18:28.000 And if you, if you're a car company that doesn't meet the 20% goal by 2026 or 60% goal by 2030, every vehicle that doesn't meet the threshold, you, you're going to pay a $20,000 fine, whether you make cars in Canada or not.
00:18:42.080 Um, if you sell cars into Canada, like VinFast from Vietnam or Tesla from Shanghai, not Texas, um, and they're electric, but you have no Canadian content on it and you have no investment in Canada, uh, but you meet that threshold or exceed it, we'll give you a $20,000 credit.
00:19:02.200 Oh my goodness.
00:19:03.740 Yeah.
00:19:04.040 And so I don't think people know that that's what we're talking about.
00:19:08.140 So it's crazy.
00:19:09.080 So someone like, you know, a company like General Motors has been in Canada for what, 115 years or so?
00:19:15.680 Yeah, that's right.
00:19:16.460 Yeah.
00:19:17.260 And, and so if they don't meet that threshold for every car sold in Canada, so maybe they sell a hundred thousand cars above the threshold, that's going to be 20 grand a car.
00:19:30.440 Yeah.
00:19:30.920 Look, the numbers for a company like that, or a company like a Toyota, they make, they make 300,000 cars or four or 500,000 cars a year here.
00:19:39.020 They sell about the same.
00:19:40.840 So let's say you, let's say the target is 20% by 2026 and you've sold 300,000 cars here, but you only sold, um, 45,000 electric vehicles because Canadian consumers didn't buy them.
00:19:54.640 Um, you're short 15,000, well, 15,000 times 20,000 is a $300 million fine for a company that also makes cars here.
00:20:05.020 Now, if you make those electric cars here and Canadians don't buy them, but you sell them to Americans.
00:20:10.040 So 80% of the cars that we make in Canada are sold to Americans.
00:20:13.440 You don't get a credit for the battery electric vehicle you made in Windsor that got sold a kilometer away in Detroit, but Vinfast that makes cars in, um, Vietnam who sold a modest 2000 here last year.
00:20:27.180 Well, we're going to give them 2000 times 20,000, uh, in credits.
00:20:32.540 Here's $40 million, uh, that, uh, uh, that you got for being green, I guess, uh, uh, BYD.
00:20:41.480 If they sold 50,000 of these, uh, $12,000 cars or $15,000 cars, we would give them a billion dollars in credits so that they can sell it.
00:20:51.920 But, but, but, but hold on.
00:20:53.320 Yeah.
00:20:53.540 You said they will get $20,000 per car sold.
00:20:57.240 That's more than the car costs.
00:20:59.440 It's crazy, Brian.
00:21:00.480 It's not, there's no, if it sounds crazy, trust me, I do this every day, all day long.
00:21:05.980 It doesn't make sense.
00:21:08.000 Uh, I'm not getting it wrong.
00:21:10.040 You can have the, you can have, uh, the minister of the environment on, you can have transport Canada on who.
00:21:16.640 Steven Guibo and I have not been on good terms in a very long time, so that's not going to happen.
00:21:21.920 Well, here, let me give you another example that will make people crazy.
00:21:25.640 There's a, there's a, there's a $5,000 purchase incentive available from the federal government.
00:21:31.000 If you buy an electric vehicle here in Canada.
00:21:32.740 Okay.
00:21:33.180 Province of Ontario doesn't have it.
00:21:34.380 Some other provinces do.
00:21:36.080 To qualify for that, you just have to have buy an electric vehicle as long as it's under $55,000.
00:21:41.520 It doesn't matter where it comes from.
00:21:42.700 Well, last year, Transport Canada, that runs the program, spent $130 million in incentives on cars made in China.
00:21:51.700 I mean, it's insane.
00:21:54.240 Sorry, $135 million?
00:21:56.080 $130 million of, of dollars generated by Canadian citizens and companies in the tax base paid out to cars made in China.
00:22:06.940 And you'll have people who say, I've been arguing with them for the last two days now, since Biden made his news here, people on the environmental side, we need those electric cars, devil be damned.
00:22:18.520 And well, okay, so we're going to give cash to China and we're going to ignore the fact that China makes these cars in the dirtiest industrial environment on the planet. 0.58
00:22:26.360 So that, so that you can virtue signal in your neighborhood.
00:22:29.620 By the way, um, you know, they said, you know, the argument has been, you know, otherwise electric vehicles are just luxury goods.
00:22:38.980 And, you know, this is a discretionary purchase.
00:22:42.420 Every vehicle is a discretionary purchase.
00:22:45.560 Uh, if you're naive enough to, to think that we should all lay down for Chinese manufacturing, I really don't know where to start the argument.
00:22:55.800 If you tell me that you have lower disposable income and you need a cheaper option, I really understand that.
00:23:02.440 I truly do, but it's not up to the consumer to decide.
00:23:06.940 They're not equipped to decide there.
00:23:08.660 That's not the job we pay them to do to understand balance of power politics between the U S and China and where Canada should sit.
00:23:16.240 And Canada absolutely should sit inside North America.
00:23:19.700 I, um, you know, you're talking about these rebates that the feds give out in different provinces, give out my big problem.
00:23:27.900 And, and I come this at this from a particular point of view, all of us have our biases.
00:23:33.260 We all have something in our background that informs our decisions.
00:23:38.000 I come from Hamilton.
00:23:39.420 It's a steel town.
00:23:42.120 Food on my table was a result of selling steel to auto manufacturers.
00:23:47.700 And so I never understood why the previous wind government in Ontario, what, you know, in an Ontario is the big manufacturing hub.
00:23:58.920 Why were we giving out subsidies to cars made in China and elsewhere before we ever had, she never put anything into trying to attract the, uh, EV manufacturing just said, we'll subsidize you to buy a Chinese car. 0.99
00:24:14.580 And I thought, this is the craziest thing we're undermining our own industry.
00:24:19.340 And I guess that's kind of the, the theme of the whole discussion that we're having today.
00:24:23.500 Yeah.
00:24:24.340 Yeah.
00:24:24.860 You know what?
00:24:25.500 Um, when, uh, when, uh, when Doug Ford, uh, uh, formed government here, uh, you know, in our first meetings, I said, you know, the purchase incentives, I know they're really popular with enthusiasts.
00:24:36.840 And let's put enthusiasts aside and I represent the, the people who make parts for cars or assemble these cars in Canada.
00:24:46.240 They are a secondary priority.
00:24:48.000 Why don't you take the money that you're spending on?
00:24:49.800 And that was at that time up to $14,000 for, you know, if you wanted to buy a Porsche 19, 918 Spyder for 975,000, we'll give you 14,000 off.
00:24:59.280 We said, take that money, invest it in the manufacturing footprint, uh, for those vehicles, uh, in Hamilton, um, uh, ArcelorMittal DeFasco sells $5 billion worth of steel to the local, um, automotive sector here in Canada.
00:25:20.840 Uh, and, uh, in, uh, in, uh, in the Great Lakes region, you know, ask them about, uh, the practices of Chinese steel, uh, steel dumping, uh, uh, steel, uh, that comes, uh, through other countries, uh, the predatory pricing on it, you know, uh, the Chinese sell finished goods out of steel for, uh, their, their, their, their selling prices less than the spot price of the raw material here.
00:25:47.740 How, you know, it's not, it didn't come in from outer space.
00:25:51.840 It means somebody else paid the bill and that's really corporate, corporate China.
00:25:56.240 You know, I remember when Donald Trump was in the White House and he had an issue with Chinese steel coming in through Canada.
00:26:04.320 Yeah.
00:26:04.920 We'd give it a quick polish, try and send it to the States as Canadian steel.
00:26:11.500 And he said, you got to stop doing this for a year.
00:26:14.720 He said, just got to stop doing this.
00:26:16.360 Our government refused.
00:26:18.600 He put tariffs and as guys, of course, he's going to do that.
00:26:23.420 Like, why, why are you protecting Chinese steel coming in, uh, to the point where it hurts our, our, our homegrown industry.
00:26:31.320 But as we, you've mentioned the issue of manufacturing and, uh, and the supports from the Trudeau and the Ford governments, that's been controversial.
00:26:41.560 Uh, you know that I've supported it, but I'm going to play devil's advocate.
00:26:44.580 When we come back after this break.
00:26:47.700 So Flavio, um, the idea that the federal and provincial governments of Ontario are going to back the EV manufacturing sector in this country has been incredibly controversial.
00:27:03.480 First off, let's deal with the opening part.
00:27:06.960 The number of times I hear from people, EVs won't work.
00:27:10.820 EVs don't work.
00:27:12.480 This is just a boondoggle.
00:27:15.880 What do you say to them?
00:27:16.940 I mean, a lot of people have a lot of strong opinions about technology.
00:27:21.680 It's, it's, it's a little strange to be honest.
00:27:24.800 Uh, the technology isn't brand new.
00:27:27.600 I mean, uh, in, uh, in the nine, in the 1910s, the New York city cab company ran electric vehicles, their batteries, uh, lead acid batteries that they had, uh, that they bought from Japan.
00:27:39.540 It's, it's, it's, it's an, it's a story as old as the industry.
00:27:43.520 Um, the cars are a superior experience.
00:27:48.040 I think what people are upset about is a, is a, is, uh, is a few pieces.
00:27:53.420 Number one, this is a country whose economy relies heavily on a healthy oil and gas sector.
00:27:59.520 Um, we, we, I think we lose sight of that in central and Eastern Canada, but a lot of the bills get paid by what happens, um, in, uh, in, uh, in, uh,
00:28:09.540 uh, in Alberta specifically, but also, uh, you know, in, uh, Saskatchewan and, uh, when you power a vehicle with electricity, uh, you're not powering it with the products that are currently helping to pay the bills and employ people in good paying jobs and careers.
00:28:29.320 Um, and so they, they look at EVs as a threat and, and, you know, it's certainly understandable.
00:28:35.440 Uh, you know, I won't, I won't moralize over that.
00:28:38.200 I've always said maybe the best partners we should have are the balance sheets of the oil and gas companies to help pay some of these bills so they don't go through Ottawa and then back out.
00:28:47.200 Um, everybody's going to have to transition.
00:28:49.160 The only debate is how long.
00:28:50.620 And then the other thing is, um, you know, people get really sanctimonious about EVs, uh, and they're, they say, well, you've got to, you've got to do your part for the environment.
00:28:59.900 Um, and then they are the same people who the last couple of days are really upset that Joe Biden might say, look, let's even the playing field.
00:29:06.380 If you want cheap Chinese cars, then you're going to have to pay a little bit more for it.
00:29:11.240 And then they lose their minds, uh, and ignore the fact that the Chinese are the top polluters in the world. 0.99
00:29:16.020 And so they listen to that sanctimony.
00:29:18.980 Uh, it's easier to, we're still in, we're still exporting coal to China.
00:29:23.240 You know, we're, we're, we're part of the problem and they're building a cold fired plant a week.
00:29:29.080 Yeah.
00:29:30.760 Yeah.
00:29:31.260 Look, I think that, I think that Canada is in a position and the reason why I like the transition to EVs, I don't like the schedule that we have on it.
00:29:38.660 I think it's unrealistic.
00:29:40.400 A hundred percent by 2035 will never happen.
00:29:42.480 You and I will do this podcast as old men then, or whatever we'll do in 2035, maybe like a hologram or something.
00:29:48.800 Uh, and the number will be 35, 40%.
00:29:51.660 Uh, but I do think that, uh, you know, uh, the Canadian, so EVs are driven by batteries.
00:29:58.900 Batteries are driven by chemistry that are, that is able to hold and discharge power efficiently.
00:30:03.960 And that comes from lithium, cobalt, uh, nickel, graphite.
00:30:08.000 We have that in Canada.
00:30:08.840 We don't have it ready.
00:30:10.280 It's going to be 10 years before it's ready.
00:30:12.560 But if that's the biggest expense in an EV, a battery might be a $25,000, uh, product.
00:30:20.180 Um, and we have it and the Americans don't and the Germans don't and the Japanese don't, uh, we may be able to on a mid to long-term play become, uh, outsized player in the most lucrative and strategically important consumer good in the world.
00:30:37.660 Um, but, uh, but these are complicated, uh, these are complicated objectives and it, it, the Chinese have taken 30 years to get there with essentially. 0.53
00:30:50.680 It's going to take us a lot longer to get there.
00:30:52.880 And I think, I think we all have to start listening to each other a little bit more and stop being sanctimonious on both ends of the debate.
00:30:58.620 I, we are going to move from fossil fuels, but we're going to move in the next 40, 50 years.
00:31:02.600 And we are going to go to zero emission transportation and we may lead it.
00:31:06.120 But if we rush the market there before it's ready, it's going to buy from the Chinese that are, are 10 times, a hundred times the, uh, the, uh, the risk on, uh, uh, CO2s than, uh, anything that we're doing in Western Canada. 0.94
00:31:22.280 Yeah.
00:31:23.780 And so at that point we're rewarding people who are polluting more than what we're trying to replace.
00:31:30.480 Yeah.
00:31:30.840 I sat down with the CEO of a supercar company in Italy.
00:31:33.900 Uh, I won't tell you which one, but it's got a horse on the front.
00:31:36.140 And he said to me, what do you think?
00:31:38.640 What do you think about all this?
00:31:39.880 And I said, well, I think you have to, you have to develop a product that is zero emissions.
00:31:44.680 I mean, you're a responsible company that's publicly traded.
00:31:47.200 I said, but, um, by the time we get to 2028, 2029, uh, and all of these, uh, countries fail against their, their targets, they're going to recalibrate what the, what the actual target is.
00:31:59.400 It's going to be CO2 emissions, uh, on your entire company footprint, not just your cars.
00:32:05.660 And so buy your steel in Quebec or your aluminum in Quebec, because it's driven by hydroelectric, get your lithium in, in Northern Ontario.
00:32:15.460 Um, and, um, you know, try to put yourself in a good position.
00:32:18.720 And his reflection to me is this feels a little bit like let's sweep the dirt off the floors in our house and put it outside and say, it's all clean.
00:32:27.500 The dirt still exists.
00:32:29.140 If you're going to go buy dirty, uh, you're going to buy cheap, clean cars from dirty jurisdictions.
00:32:36.140 You just put it outside the door.
00:32:37.740 It doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
00:32:38.760 It means you close the door on it, but everybody else could see it.
00:32:40.760 The other critique of what Trudeau and Ford have been doing in terms of the Stellantis deal, the Volkswagen deal, now the Honda deal.
00:32:51.880 And I know the Honda deal is very, it's organized very differently, but you know, that's, that's lost on a lot of people.
00:32:59.420 But so is the fact that money has not been handed to these companies yet.
00:33:03.460 So I'm constantly asked, why are we giving them $13 billion and they haven't built a car yet?
00:33:10.300 Yeah, that's a good question.
00:33:13.520 And, uh, the answer is a, is a really simple one.
00:33:16.380 Um, the, unlike in 2010, when we bailed out, um, uh, general motors and Chrysler, then at the time where we wrote a check, Canada wrote a check for $13.7 billion.
00:33:27.720 It was like, here's a check.
00:33:29.560 Fingers crossed.
00:33:30.540 I hope you survive.
00:33:31.660 I think it was the right decision, by the way.
00:33:33.180 I think we don't give enough credit to Stephen Harper and Dalton McGinty for that, but we saved the, the, the industry and, and, uh, you know, tens of thousands of jobs.
00:33:42.380 Now, what we've done is we made a commitment to companies like Volkswagen Stellantis and said, if you make these goods, um, at this volume in these years and you demonstrate to us that you did.
00:33:54.140 So, uh, 400,000 batteries for one and, uh, a, a million batteries for the other one, uh, that's generating, you know, $10 billion in activity and probably $2 billion in taxes, new taxes generated every year.
00:34:11.080 We'll let you keep some up to $13 billion.
00:34:14.160 It's different.
00:34:15.740 Um, okay.
00:34:17.200 But, but hold on, you said $2 billion in taxes, but they get to keep 13 per year, per year.
00:34:22.660 So what their commitment is $13 billion over a long period of time that goes to 2032, but they're going to start generating $2 billion in, in, uh, revenue in, in, uh, 2025.
00:34:33.100 And so it is a, it's a, it's a, it's a performance based incentive.
00:34:39.220 It's based on new taxes, uh, that we will just forego, but, but, but, but they're still going to be paying taxes.
00:34:47.020 Oh yeah, they'll definitely.
00:34:47.960 So what'll happen is they'll do.
00:34:49.580 So if you do 400,000 batteries a year, we'll take Stellantis, for example, in Windsor, they said they're going to do 400,000 batteries a year.
00:34:56.080 We know those batteries are $25,000 each.
00:34:58.800 Those batteries will go into vehicles in, uh, Windsor and in Brampton.
00:35:02.500 So they'll generate an HST of 13 a percent.
00:35:06.820 So $10 billion of activity generating $1.3 billion worth of HST.
00:35:12.360 Then there's the corporate taxes that the company will pay and the personal income taxes of all the employees and the employer's contributions.
00:35:20.500 We think that totals $2 billion a year.
00:35:23.640 If they, uh, produce the batteries, they get the subsidy.
00:35:28.380 That subsidy will come out of that extra $2 billion worth of taxes.
00:35:31.540 If they don't, they won't.
00:35:33.080 Now the problem and the reason we're having a very public debate, Brian, is that we've gone out and, and struck these deals and then we crow about the deals, but we don't explain the second part.
00:35:44.640 And so people quite rightly say, we're in kind of tough times.
00:35:48.560 Everything's expensive.
00:35:49.480 We've got a lot of competing interests.
00:35:50.440 You give $13 billion to who?
00:35:53.060 And instead, if, if they took the time, if they found a way to consistently explain it, like I did, which is if they build it and they generate new taxes, we will forgive some of those new taxes.
00:36:03.780 And it's about 25%, right?
00:36:07.080 Uh, oh, you mean the, uh, the, the, what the subsidy is worth?
00:36:10.580 Yeah, it's about that.
00:36:11.480 Yeah, it's about that.
00:36:12.120 And, and so you sit there and say, okay, well, that's a little bit different.
00:36:15.820 You're, you're, you're, you're, you're making a bet with nothing down that's, uh, or little down.
00:36:21.480 It's not nothing down.
00:36:22.320 We did put a billion dollars of public money, uh, 500 from the feds, 500 from the province on that plant in Windsor.
00:36:29.400 But, you know, you're in the big leagues.
00:36:31.680 There's always going to be a franchise fee.
00:36:33.100 There's always going to be a payroll fee, but, but, you know, you got to go out and win.
00:36:37.360 And, um, we, we just do a, you know, in my opinion, and I say this with respect to my friends at Queen's Park and that in Ottawa, sometimes we spend more time announcing and crowing about a deal than doing the, the careful, thoughtful explanation to the people who pay the taxes on why there's going to be a return.
00:36:58.720 And what we use that return for, those are communities with a healthy economic, uh, industrial basin who then pay for the things that base, that tax base pays for the things that are important in those communities, schools, hospitals, roads.
00:37:12.940 Um, uh, a, a city like St. Thomas saw two major plants leave in 2008, uh, and 2010.
00:37:22.120 It's a ghost town.
00:37:23.160 If I owned a house in St. Thomas, what do you think the value of my house was then?
00:37:26.560 And if I had a mortgage on a house that was 300,000 and then my mortgage was 250,000, but the cost of the house, the price of the house, the value dropped down at 200,000 on renewal, I lose the house.
00:37:39.120 Okay.
00:37:39.600 But your critics would say that at the end of all this, it works out to $4 million per job.
00:37:48.040 The critics aren't in the business or, or even in business.
00:37:51.880 You never do a four, you never do a per job calculation.
00:37:55.440 You turn around and say, Oh, take the Honda one.
00:37:57.580 For example, um, you, you put $5 billion, uh, of public money into a $15 billion investment by Honda.
00:38:06.800 If that $15 billion investment produces an extra $2 billion a year in taxes and tax revenue, like we talked about, it's how long, uh, do we go before you get your $5 billion back?
00:38:20.800 In that case, less than three years of full production.
00:38:24.320 It's, it's not a, we never have the jobs argument in AI.
00:38:28.720 We never have the job, like cost per jobs, uh, in healthcare.
00:38:32.520 We just say, okay, what's your return on investment?
00:38:35.900 Automotive is an easy target because we've had cycles, decade long cycles of boom and bust.
00:38:41.820 Uh, and, uh, you know, the, the, the automakers are not, you know, not Canadian based.
00:38:47.100 You don't have a Canadian CEO of, uh, Canada motors that you can take the task.
00:38:52.340 Um, and I think people are a little bit jaded and rightfully so that they've seen government investments in automotive in the past.
00:39:00.240 And then that company says, Oh, well, we've got tough times and we're out and chase us.
00:39:05.200 Um, what we learned from that.
00:39:07.180 And I was involved in some of those deals.
00:39:08.520 As you know, I worked, uh, uh, in government, uh, in a earlier chapter in my life, we learned that we, we don't flow money, uh, uh, against a promise.
00:39:21.760 We flow money against performance, uh, bringing me the receipts, show me, and then, then we'll give you the credit against it.
00:39:29.620 When, when we get, so you're, you're giving them a tax break rather than giving them money up front.
00:39:34.300 Yeah.
00:39:34.740 And if you give them money, not you, but the government.
00:39:36.680 Yeah.
00:39:36.860 Yeah.
00:39:37.180 And if you give them money up front, what you do is you get first charge against the asset.
00:39:43.200 I'll get first charge against the plant.
00:39:44.860 I'll get first charge against your tooling.
00:39:46.780 And yeah, I'm not going to be able to recover all of it.
00:39:48.940 Um, but you're not going to be able to borrow against it.
00:39:52.340 And it's a bigger bet that, uh, uh, a more sure bet, uh, by government.
00:39:58.220 Uh, we, we, we're all learning, um, while the Chinese and others, not just the Chinese, but others are at full sprint. 0.95
00:40:10.080 And, um, you know, uh, I'll take, for example, the, the Vietnamese have a car company now, you know, when we were negotiating the TPP in 2015 and 16, everybody said to me, cause I was saying, why are we letting the Vietnamese and the Malaysians into a deal terror free?
00:40:26.600 They could sell their goods to us.
00:40:28.020 You know, what are the Vietnamese sell to us? 1.00
00:40:29.860 They're not a threat.
00:40:30.600 I said, I know they're a threat.
00:40:31.880 They, they, they have a manufacturing culture.
00:40:35.780 They are one of the world's, you know, supply chains in, in commoditized goods.
00:40:41.040 Uh, these are earnest people who, who, uh, want to join the world stage.
00:40:45.680 Well, the biggest noodle maker in Vietnam decided to put his fortune, uh, uh, with an equal bet from the federal government to build a company called VinFest.
00:40:55.080 And now you can go to Yorkdale shopping center and buy a VinFest.
00:40:58.020 Not one, one stitch in that car is, uh, Canadian.
00:41:03.420 Uh, they're all EVs.
00:41:05.060 The federal government's giving them a $20,000 credit for everyone they sell here.
00:41:08.480 Do you have to sell at a profit when you sell a, a $50,000 or a $60,000 car, uh, that gets a $20,000 credit?
00:41:17.220 Like that, that, that, that's your profit is what the Trudeau government's giving you.
00:41:22.460 Yeah.
00:41:23.100 And I look, it's, it's a pen stroke away from fixing it.
00:41:27.080 You just say, um, uh, no, you're not going to give that credit or you're not going to require local manufacturers to buy one.
00:41:35.000 And then that just turns, you know, VinFest's credit into nothing.
00:41:40.020 Um, we, we, you, you, you go buy a VinFest, beautiful cars, by the way, and this is not a criticism of the company.
00:41:45.720 They went and got Ferrari's designer, Pininfarina, to make them.
00:41:48.940 Uh, if you get a $5,000 purchase incentive from the feds, it's easier for you to buy it.
00:41:54.460 You know, we're, we're all kind of, uh, struggling for how to make ends meet.
00:41:58.680 Great.
00:41:59.180 But we just sent that $5,000 to Vietnam.
00:42:01.900 Um, but you, the consumer gets $5,000 and then the company gets $20,000.
00:42:07.940 Yeah.
00:42:08.420 Yeah.
00:42:08.980 Why do they have to worry about having a high price?
00:42:12.400 Yeah.
00:42:12.880 So now you're an auto worker.
00:42:14.300 Let's forget about me.
00:42:15.300 Who, who, who cares who I am?
00:42:17.140 You're working in a plant in Windsor or Brampton or Oakville or, or, or, or Oshawa.
00:42:23.580 And, uh, you've got a good job.
00:42:25.860 Uh, you know, maybe you and your partner work in the plant or work in the business and you
00:42:31.660 have a dual income where, you know, you're pulling in $180, $200,000 a year with overtime,
00:42:36.060 like really, really, uh, usable material wages.
00:42:41.440 Um, and you, you are in a plant.
00:42:44.420 The Canadian plants have gotten 38% of the JD powers productivity and quality awards, uh,
00:42:51.040 since the late nineties.
00:42:52.320 And we have maybe 11% of production.
00:42:54.540 These are people who are doing a super job and you find out, uh, that, uh, the government's
00:43:03.720 got a side door open that allows the Chinese to flood the market to you and your neighbors 1.00
00:43:07.640 to buy their goods, uh, with workers that in some cases are forced labor, but when they're
00:43:13.660 not forced, they get five, six bucks an hour. 0.90
00:43:15.640 Treat it like garbage, uh, uh, uh, uh, people who cynically, uh, a country that cynically
00:43:22.080 doesn't care about the environment, uh, locally, domestically when they want to, uh, build their 0.96
00:43:28.060 global, uh, hegemony, uh, but, but preach it to Canadians.
00:43:33.500 And now you're going to lose your job to, to that.
00:43:36.820 And don't you want your government to fight for your job?
00:43:39.820 Well, we're doing a great job on the investment side, but we left the door wide open on this
00:43:44.480 mandate credit side.
00:43:45.640 Should Canada follow the Biden government's, uh, path and do, do the tariff?
00:43:52.400 Should have done it yesterday.
00:43:54.060 Um, they didn't really, we really don't have a, we really don't have an option.
00:43:58.500 We should have done it anyway.
00:44:00.060 Um, regardless of what the U S are doing, the U S had a 27 and a half percent tariff.
00:44:04.620 All we had was a 6.1% most favored nation, uh, WTO tariff.
00:44:09.500 I went down, uh, in the first week of November.
00:44:13.040 So we spoke in Ottawa in October.
00:44:15.500 Then in November, we went down and, and, uh, spoke to, um, uh, white house treasury energy
00:44:21.960 transportation and said, the Chinese are coming.
00:44:24.800 You should know that the Chinese imports into Mexico next door to you went up for 400% last
00:44:31.020 year.
00:44:31.240 Uh, in Europe, 330%.
00:44:34.620 Uh, they, uh, you have a bunch of doors that are open.
00:44:39.900 You better close them fast.
00:44:41.860 Uh, then we spoke about it publicly.
00:44:44.180 Then I spoke about it to the press and at a conference caused a major kerfuffle.
00:44:47.940 I got a lot of people who don't like me, uh, who, um, who, uh, who are in Mexico, uh, and
00:44:53.580 or in the U S relying on Chinese supply chains.
00:44:56.740 I was the happiest person in this country when I saw what, uh, what the Biden administration
00:45:01.860 did a couple of days ago.
00:45:03.440 It doesn't mean you can't buy, um, uh, a BYD, um, whatever that car, whatever that model
00:45:10.040 is called.
00:45:10.720 Uh, it just means that you can't buy it for 15,000.
00:45:12.920 It means that you have to pay 30,000 for it and it's all relative.
00:45:16.100 It's still $10,000 cheaper than the average, uh, vehicle in the U S but it's got to hurt
00:45:21.000 a little bit that $15,000, uh, is, uh, tariff tax revenue collected by the U S government
00:45:28.020 that maybe helps to pay that $330 billion they're investing in domestic EVs.
00:45:33.980 We can't, we, I, I love when people, uh, so boldly say you should be fine with some competition
00:45:41.400 and, uh, and this is about the environment.
00:45:44.640 Well, they don't play by the rules over there.
00:45:46.380 Don't be naive.
00:45:47.500 Flavio, uh, talking about putting big tariffs on things kind of makes the hair on the back
00:45:53.300 of my neck stand out by me.
00:45:54.480 Yeah.
00:45:54.920 Yeah.
00:45:55.180 I mean, I'm a free trade kind of guy, but you can't be doing free trade with a country
00:46:01.000 that has their government subsidize their industry so that they can become the dominant
00:46:07.140 player or that does not have the same labor standards or environmental standards.
00:46:12.680 Otherwise we're tying our hands behind our backs and asking our workers to pay the price.
00:46:17.920 And that's not a good, good outcome.
00:46:21.240 Yeah.
00:46:21.760 I mean, I don't even have to say anything.
00:46:23.140 You just said the whole thing.
00:46:24.060 Like it is, it is, uh, uh, you make the major leagues you're on a roster, uh, you're pitching
00:46:32.000 against the lineup, uh, that you say, okay, look, I got to be better than the, than the
00:46:37.000 hitter and, um, let the best player, let the best team win.
00:46:41.440 And then, and then you lose.
00:46:43.720 And then you find out that that team was recording the pitches and making noises in the dugout
00:46:49.140 to make sure that they knew what was coming and they cheated and they win the world series.
00:46:53.160 And they're the Houston Astros in 2017.
00:46:55.120 I was going to say, uh, Houston, you're talking about Houston.
00:46:57.640 Yeah.
00:46:58.420 And Houston gets to keep the, the, got to keep the, the trophy because major league baseball
00:47:02.980 said the only way we're going to find out about it is if we give people immunity and
00:47:05.880 then, and then they'll confess to us.
00:47:08.340 They did.
00:47:09.000 Well, if you lost to Houston in that series, you don't have a world series ring.
00:47:15.440 Um, uh, the integrity of the game, uh, is greatly diminished and you can no longer say
00:47:22.300 the game is a balanced, uh, free market to play.
00:47:26.360 Like we pretend the auto market is the Chinese are the 2017 Houston Astros.
00:47:31.200 And, uh, when you buy their cars, they win when they buy our market share, they win, but
00:47:39.440 we don't have to wait for an investigation.
00:47:41.520 We know, we know.
00:47:43.620 So if you want to do it, if you say, if, if the government here or the market here or environmentalist
00:47:50.240 say, what's more important is climate and the air over the roads in, um, in, uh, Lethbridge
00:47:58.360 and in, uh, Trois-Riviers must be clean.
00:48:02.800 Um, and that you can close your eyes to the fact that there is no wall on the borders of
00:48:08.300 this country that we all share the same atmosphere, um, then have at it, but it's a luxury to be
00:48:14.600 that naive.
00:48:15.460 I mean, I certainly am not.
00:48:16.640 And, you know, you're, you know, I sit here talking, uh, on behalf of the automotive sector.
00:48:23.180 I mean, before this, I was building utility sized solar power plants.
00:48:27.600 We developed the third biggest solar power plant, uh, in Canada.
00:48:32.600 Uh, you know, some of the other work, uh, that I'm involved in is, is in the circular economy
00:48:38.860 resource recovery, turning what was, uh, garbage into, uh, into fuel, into, uh, materials that
00:48:47.260 store energy.
00:48:48.340 You know, um, I do know in all those enterprises, including Project Arrow, that in Canada, if you
00:48:56.220 can't turn a profit on a project or on a company, you can't get a lender, you can't get a customer,
00:49:02.080 you can't get an investor.
00:49:03.780 And so you can't say it's, you know, that there's this false choice.
00:49:08.400 It's only the economy or only the environment.
00:49:11.280 You got to make it work.
00:49:12.620 In China, they, they prey on our naivete and say, oh, what can help you achieve that objective 1.00
00:49:20.600 here?
00:49:21.000 Just get, uh, just sign up for our cheap products.
00:49:23.880 Yeah.
00:49:24.360 Well, our air continues to belch with the new coal fire plants.
00:49:30.320 You helped us set up.
00:49:32.260 Flavio.
00:49:33.240 Thanks for the time.
00:49:34.020 As always.
00:49:34.740 Anytime, Brian.
00:49:36.060 Thanks for listening today.
00:49:37.520 Full comment is a post media podcast.
00:49:40.280 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.
00:49:41.820 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.
00:49:44.120 Theme music is by Bryce Hall.
00:49:46.200 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
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00:50:06.140 Thanks for listening until next time.
00:50:07.920 I'm Brian Lilly.
00:50:08.640 Thanks for listening.