What the ’15-minute city’ means — and why it’s nonsense
Episode Stats
Summary
Wendell Cox is an urban policy analyst and visiting fellow with the Heritage Institute. He lives and breathes urban planning, and he joins us now from the St. Louis, Missouri area to talk about the 15-minute city.
Transcript
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When you speak about urban planning, it's not something that normally gets people going.
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Things like the war on the car will upset people when the population feels like they're being told
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you can't live the way you want to live. Seems to take hold. Well, that will get people worked up.
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Right now, the latest iteration of this idea of war on the car or urban planners deciding that
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they're going to socially engineer how we live is something called the 15-minute city. Mention
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these three words these days and you're sure to get an earful either about how this concept is the
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savior of our urban future or a global conspiracy to manipulate us. Like many things, the truth is
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likely somewhere in between. Hi, I'm Brian Lilly, your host for the Full Comment podcast.
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It's not often, as I said, that urban planning gets people worked up. It's something I say as a
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journalist who's covered politics across Canada for more than 20 years. I've covered City Hall for
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various stints in Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto, three of our biggest cities in the country. I've
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covered provincial legislatures across the country to varying degrees and spent more than a decade
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on Parliament Hill. Yet, this issue right now is getting people excited because of that idea that
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urban planners will tell us how to live. Well, what are the pros? What are the cons? Is this 15-minute
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city idea just an extension of the war on cars? Our next guest will be able to answer some of those
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questions, but before I bring them on, I want to remind you, please subscribe to the podcast. Whatever
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device you're listening on, whatever app, you can just hit subscribe. You can leave a review, hit the
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share button to let your friends know about all of this. Wendell Cox is an urban policy analyst, a
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visiting fellow with the Heritage Institute, among many designations that he holds. He's worked on both
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coasts of the United States on transit in Los Angeles. He replaced former New Jersey Governor
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Christine Todd Whitman on the Amtrak Reform Council. He lives and breathes urban
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planning. He's advised around the world, and he joins us now from the St. Louis, Missouri area. Mr.
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Cox, thanks for the time. Pleasure to be with you. What is it about urban planning over the last
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several decades that seems to say, we know better than you, we're going to tell you how to live? Because
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as I said, the general public doesn't always get worked up on this, but when they do, they really do.
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And when I've been covering it as a journalist, it seems to be this, we know better than you what
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you need. And sure, you may want a house and a yard and a white picket fence, but we know better.
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Well, you know, and the fact is, we do know better. People and their households do know better.
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We have seen urban planners going back to the mid-19th century conduct a war on the suburbs,
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and it, of course, later became a war on the automobile. And, you know, I'm no great lover of
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the automobile, but you know what the automobile does? It makes it possible for somebody in an area
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of about 2,800 square miles in the Toronto Population Center, that goes, you know, all the way
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from, say, Oakville to Ajax to almost Berry, to just about live wherever they want and work wherever
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they happen to be able to get a job that suits them and their employer. Works very well. And in
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fact, modern urban areas are far larger than they ever were before the coming in the automobile and
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could not be this large, that is, in terms of population, if it had not been about the automobile.
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And I would say that the point is to look at the revealed preferences of people and where they
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live. For example, in the Toronto area, you have seen over the years, the city of Toronto has done
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well in terms of population growth since the amalgamation, but the old city of Toronto actually
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had lost some population compared, I think, to the 71 census. And the point is that people have been
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moving to the suburbs. They have moved there to get more space. In the pandemic, they moved there
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not only to get more space in the yard, but also more space in the house because of all the remote
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working. And the public has stated its preference very well. You cannot find anywhere where suburban
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growth is lower than the core city growth. And by the way, it's gone even further because,
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as I indicated in a recent op-ed published out west, that is in western Canada, the Toronto metropolitan
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area lost 325,000 net domestic migrants, people moving, more people moving out of the metropolitan
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area than moving in in the last five years. And where did they go? They went to places like
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Kitchener-Waterloo, Peterborough, London, etc., where they can get more space and a yard. And it's
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expensive, but it's a whole lot less expensive than it's become in the Toronto CMA.
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As I said, we've had this repackaging of all these ideas around urban planning that no, no, no,
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you shouldn't live in Kitchener-Waterloo. You shouldn't live in the suburbs of Hamilton and
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then commute in. You shouldn't be living out in Langley and going into Vancouver. You should be
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living downtown. And if you're not living downtown, you should be living the same downtown lifestyle.
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In a condo in the sky, in stacked housing of some sort, you should be using public transit.
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And the repackaging of it is this 15-minute city concept. Can you explain to us the good,
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the bad, the ugly about what that is? Oh, sure. And let me suggest that this really
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helps me to make, I think, a really important point. This is not new. We have seen these people,
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the planning community, declare transit to be the superior mode and try to make everybody who drives
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a car feel guilty. Yet, what have they done? Has transit share increased? No, of course it has not.
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You go back to 1950, a lot larger percentage of the people were taking transit. Why are they taking
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cars? Well, let me tell you why. Let me get off for a minute on the issue of access. There's research
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that basically suggests if you live anywhere, if the average resident of the city of Toronto,
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now I'm not talking now about the metro area, the city of Toronto, the average resident of the city
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of Toronto can get to four times as many jobs by car as by transit. Now that makes the choice real
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simple. Why do we use cars? Because our lives are far better as a result. And yes, the repackaging
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in the 15-minute city is interesting. Everybody, even people who basically say it's a bunch of
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baloney, as it were, are saying, wouldn't it be nice? And in fact, we have a city in the Western
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world that is sort of a 15-minute city, Paris. Alain Berteau, who is a former principal planner
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in the World Bank, took a look at the city of Paris, which has fewer people, by the way,
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than the city of Toronto, at 2.1 million people, and found, yeah, pretty much you can get to anything
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you need in the city of Paris, except that the, you know, 30% of the people who live in the city
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of Paris commute to places outside the city of Paris. And when it comes to commuting and jobs,
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I mean, why, you know, the gas station may very well be within 15 minutes of you, but that isn't
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where you work if it's the only job available. And so the problem with the 15-minute city is,
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yes, it makes sense in our minds. It makes sense in what Berteau, Alain Berteau, who I mentioned
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before, called the ultimate utopia, in the minds of people who think they can figure out how things
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can work, but they never deliver on the promise. I mean, you think of all the promises that have
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made by well-meaning, well-intentioned people in the Toronto area or the Vancouver area or the
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Calgary area about improving transit and getting people out of cars. Has it happened? Not
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anywhere. You know, look, I grew up in the suburbs and I raised my kids in the suburbs. So we lived
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in a rural setting for a while. Now I live in the middle of downtown Toronto and most things that I
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want or need are within a 15-minute walk at most. I got a subway at steps outside my door, but I also
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have a car in the underground parking for when I need it, when I want to get out. To me, it shouldn't
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be either or. And yet I look at the new buildings going up around me and I saw one the other day.
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I'm just trying to remember the exact numbers. It was going to be a 79-story building at Yon and
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Bloor in Toronto, 1118 residences, plus more than 1.1 million square feet of retail and office space.
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And for all those residences, more than 1,000 residents, million square feet of retail and
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office space, just 95 parking spaces for cars. But there would be more than 1,100 bike parking spots.
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That is urban planners trying to say, whether you work here or live here, you cannot have a car
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because we're going to make it expensive and impossible for that to happen. Even at Yon and
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Bloor, people have cars. Well, yes. And at Yon and Bloor, I've talked to people at Toronto
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Metropolitan University who tell me about the long waits trying to transfer from one line to the other
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after work. The basic point is that, yes, indeed, you can build those kind of things. A lot of the
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same kind of development is happening in Los Angeles, which has, of course, a much weaker core than
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Toronto. And as I look at the new buildings being built in Los Angeles, you're seeing at least one
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car parking space underground for every new condo. The point is, if that can succeed in the market,
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that's fine. But as long as you're not forced to do it, I applaud anybody that wants to live at
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Yon and Bloor and not have a car. That's just fine. I don't think there are any more virtuous than you
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or I, but they are clearly appropriate in making their choices. But then look at how many people can
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even afford to live in that kind of a lifestyle. I mean, the point is to recognize that this 15-minute
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city can be theoretically achieved in some places without talking about commuting, by the way. That's
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a complete loser. Cannot happen. It can be achieved in the very dense core. So if you talk about
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the old Trinity Spadina electoral district there to the east of the core or to the west of the core,
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yeah, there where you get population densities of 10 or 15,000 people per square kilometer,
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absolutely, it works just fine, especially if you can walk to work. But the fact is the Toronto CMA
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is much larger than that. And you cannot make this kind of thing work in the modern urban area. You know,
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the core of Toronto is not an economic city. In fact, Ed Glazer at Harvard, one of the best
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urban economists around basically has referred to the 15-minute city as an enclave or a ghetto
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and basically said that what we need to do is basically show, and I'm paraphrasing him here so
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I may be getting it wrong, we need to show what a dumb idea it is. Because our cities do not look
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like downtown Toronto. Our cities look like Newmarket or they look like Halton or they look like a lot of
00:13:06.780
other people that maybe a lot of the people downtown have never been to. But that is where most people
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live. And that's not just Canada. That's Western Europe. You know, that's Japan. That's all over the
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world. You know an awful lot about Canada and specifically Toronto for a guy that lives in St.
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Louis. Well, actually, I'm proud to say that as a kid, I lived in Canada for three years, and I've
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always had a great affection for the country. But I have done work there. And it shows both in your
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writing and the ease of conversation here. But you mentioned something that I think is key here. You
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said that people might want to live that lifestyle with no cars in the building and biking and walking
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everywhere. And look, sometimes, some weeks I don't take the car out. Sometimes I take it out a lot.
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It depends on what I'm doing. But that's my choice. And that's the choice of the person that decides
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they don't want a car. And it feels to me seems to me that modern urban planning wants to take away
00:14:13.940
individual choice and say, well, we should all live in these cookie cutter apartments. I mean, 500 square
00:14:22.960
foot and we'll call it a two bedroom. And that's, you know, that's the extent of your choice. I don't
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think that's where the public is at. Always. They're not even close to being there. I mean, I cannot
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believe the failure that must, you know, if the planners really looked at how their theories have
00:14:43.460
been implemented, they would have to recognize it's all been an object failure. How can it be that 55%
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of the population of the CMA is outside the city of Toronto? And indeed, I saw a picture in one of
00:14:56.520
the papers just a couple of days ago, a marvelous aerial view showing what the city looks like
00:15:02.500
with all the single family dwellings in the city covering most of the area. And that's fine because
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Toronto is a wonderful place to live. But people have got to be allowed to make their choices. And
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you know what? They're going to make their choices. And we saw that happen in the pandemic around the
00:15:17.600
world. From London to Toronto to San Francisco and Sydney and Tokyo, we basically saw people say,
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you know what? I can work from home. And you know what? I'm going to move. And so what we have is
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substantial exoduses from core cities, even more than has occurred in the last 70 years of
00:15:36.660
suburbanization. As people have moved out to do hybrid work, people at Stanford are basically saying
00:15:45.260
that, you know, for a lot of people, like if you're working only one or two days a week,
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you can easily make a two-hour commute for those few days. So the point is, the people are not in
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any position, the people are not going to have the urban planners dictating their ways of life. And
00:16:04.160
life is going to become even more difficult for the planners in the years to come because of the fact
00:16:10.240
that all of the advantages that everyone thought were necessary would force people to live in urban
00:16:17.980
areas or in metropolitan areas, you don't have to live there anymore. You can go to the rural areas.
00:16:22.620
And it's happening all over Canada, all over the US, Australia, etc. So it's a new world.
00:16:27.420
I know several people who left the city, were living in the core, pandemic hit, they left the city,
00:16:35.300
and they either left completely, or they downsized what they had in the city, got something out in a
00:16:42.180
rural area or a small town. And for the couple days a week that they come in, they've got a small,
00:16:47.680
either rental or purchased a small apartment with what they had left over from getting rid of their
00:16:54.400
homes. So it's not just anecdotal, your statistics are showing it.
00:17:00.120
Oh, yeah. Well, for example, the whole 15-minute city idea, I mean, who's getting the credit for it,
00:17:06.480
is a gentleman by the name of Carlos Moreno, who is a city of Paris. Actually, he's a professor at the
00:17:13.080
Sorbonne. And what he's basically saying is that there are going to be great difficulties
00:17:23.400
implementing this thing. And, you know, in Paris, for example, I'm trying to remember what it was
00:17:31.920
here. You know, in Paris, for example, the city that he works for, which has 2.1 million people,
00:17:38.380
so it's smaller than Toronto, the city that he works for and has a population density, mind you,
00:17:44.380
about 15 times that of Toronto. Toronto, the core, the city of Toronto has about 4,000 people per
00:17:52.200
square kilometer. Paris has 60,000. That makes it a whole lot easier to do the 15-minute city.
00:17:58.640
But one has to step back and wait and ask, well, now, what is Paris? Paris is an urban agglomeration
00:18:04.780
of 11 million people. Only 2 million of those people live within the boulevard peripherique.
00:18:11.220
And the rest of the place, there isn't any hope whatsoever of getting anything like the 15-minute
00:18:16.720
city for anything. And that's how most of the world is. And, you know, most people, as we can see
00:18:23.600
from their choices, would prefer to live in a place with some room, with yards and so on. And you know
00:18:34.040
what? The transportation is such that, you know, you can live an awful lot of these places with a 30-minute
00:18:40.780
commute. And that's sort of the world standard 30 minutes. And we do very well on that in the United
00:18:46.280
States. Canada does comparatively well, but generally not as well because of your population
00:18:50.880
densities being higher in the urban areas and generally the freeways being less numerous,
00:18:57.320
especially, for example, in the Vancouver area.
00:19:00.100
Yeah, or issues like not having proper rain roads or different things that the American states have
00:19:05.780
embraced. Wendell, we've got to take a quick break, but when I come back, I want to ask you about two
00:19:11.100
other things on the urban planning front. One that I know quite a bit about, green belts, and I think
00:19:17.260
they're a failure. The other one is congestion taxes, which is constantly raised. And I know you've
00:19:23.420
studied that. So urban planners love these things. Are they the right answers? We'll talk to Wendell
00:19:37.340
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Greenbelt is a major political topic here in Ontario right now.
00:21:05.220
I've lived for years in Ottawa, where we had one, and it is sacrosanct.
00:21:11.120
People truly believe that it saved the city, that it stopped suburban sprawl, and yet most
00:21:18.240
people in the Ottawa area live outside the Greenbelt and drive into the Greenbelt when
00:21:29.940
It is the same thing everywhere that it's tried.
00:21:35.800
So, Wendell Cox, what's your view of Greenbelts?
00:21:39.980
My personal experience is they lead to more suburban sprawl.
00:21:48.460
But are there studies on it from people that haven't just drunk the Kool-Aid?
00:21:53.960
Well, I do a report every year now in the 18th annual version,
00:21:58.080
the Demographic International Housing Affordability Survey.
00:22:02.880
The biggest problem that I see with Greenbelts is that the limitation on the amount of land
00:22:10.660
that can be developed, and I'm not talking about developing land like Atlanta,
00:22:15.200
where the suburban lot sizes are way too large.
00:22:17.300
I saw a recent picture, an aerial picture of Markham,
00:22:21.780
where the house roofs almost touch one another.
00:22:24.920
They're building them on such small lots in the suburbs there.
00:22:30.160
But the point is, what we have seen happen in Toronto,
00:22:40.100
was that the median house price, resale house price,
00:22:44.020
and this includes apartments and everything, you know, any owned housing,
00:22:48.060
went from 3.9 times the median incomes, median household incomes, to 9.5 times.
00:22:55.620
Now, you want to know why we've got a cost of building crisis?
00:23:06.740
it's sort of like what happens when the oil-producing nations of the world
00:23:16.460
Well, when urban planners and the people that follow them
00:23:27.100
when they decide to ration land for urban development
00:23:30.600
that's well-located for jobs in the Toronto area,
00:23:37.220
no one should ever think that downtown Toronto has most of the employment
00:23:43.200
The Toronto CMA has got about 500,000 people working downtown,
00:23:46.980
and you've got about 3.5 million people working in the rest,
00:24:06.920
it has been associated with huge increases in house prices,
00:24:49.660
it is becoming increasingly difficult to do that.
00:25:02.280
They're going to add in another 9,500 acres elsewhere,
00:25:10.600
this is not land that you would build a home on.
00:25:15.240
You're just protecting land we wouldn't build on.
00:25:17.480
We want you to protect land that you would build on.
00:25:21.900
because it's close to the urban or suburban areas,
00:25:48.020
where the waiting list for subsidized housing is 10 years.
00:25:53.080
why is subsidized housing so oversubscribed as it were?
00:25:56.760
part of it is because you qualify for subsidized housing by not being able to afford market rate housing.
00:26:06.000
that's the multiple of the house price over the,
00:26:12.500
you'd have a lot less call for affordable housing.
00:26:15.080
And so when I hear all of the incredible opposition to the Ford government's proposal to,
00:26:26.500
it strikes me that the very same people who raised the loudest cries about the lack of affordable housing,
00:26:34.300
don't realize that it is the only way you were ever going to solve the problem.
00:26:38.840
And everything leads me to believe that you can expect that house prices are going to continue to rise.
00:26:44.500
I realize they're down now because of the pandemic demand shock.
00:27:00.580
the impact of green belts is to raise housing prices and reduce the standard of living.
00:27:06.980
And it is going to make a much poorer standard of living in the long run for people in Toronto and Vancouver and San Francisco.
00:27:14.320
And Los Angeles places that have these kinds of policies.
00:27:18.740
My understanding is that there's also been studies in places like Frankfurt in London,
00:27:29.460
the reasons that these green belts were brought in,
00:27:40.160
you go back to the literature at the start of these things.
00:27:42.820
And one of the issues where we were going to make these,
00:27:45.280
it was going to improve housing affordability and all of that never happened.
00:27:56.100
how in the world are you ever going to make this happen?
00:27:59.540
There's no way you can afford to make it happen.
00:28:05.520
these kinds of policies seem to routinely produce only success in the minds of the planners,
00:28:21.180
It doesn't appear that things have gotten better.
00:28:27.260
thankfully rejected by most of the people in charge,
00:29:21.600
the city of London covers about 700 square miles.
00:29:25.080
I'm not sure how big the congestion pricing zone is,
00:29:33.680
I think the congestion pricing is limited to the Stockholm Island,
00:29:39.600
It may very well reduce traffic congestion though,
00:29:52.140
in addition to hearing about affordable housing in Toronto and Vancouver and
00:30:05.400
especially with respect to government policies.
00:30:11.600
but they're going to have to pay a congestion tax to drive on the freeways.
00:30:16.820
I'll tell you what I think will happen anytime,
00:30:19.080
whenever you get an entire urban area that has decided,
00:30:33.600
I would imagine because people will say I'm not doing it.
00:30:37.320
The other day I had to drive out to Toronto suburbs to drop something off.
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And it was right on the border of Northern border of Mississauga,
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And this is kind of the logistics central for the greater Toronto area.
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And in the way that many people who live this downtown urban lifestyle that I do,
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An awful lot of people have everything delivered.
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It goes through the suburban centers where people drive to work,
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How are your goods getting into the city at the end of the day,
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stock a store or resupply a restaurant or the goods that you've ordered online?
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If you're just constantly shutting down traffic?
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the big problem here is a failure to understand how important mobility and access are in the economic life of the city.
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there's good research that basically suggests that the,
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I'm talking about the metropolitan area increases to the extent that commute times are reduced,
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of thinking that everywhere can work like downtown is,
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and they may have taken this down off the internet because of the police publicity I made about it in a,
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That area has more jobs or at least 10 years ago had more jobs than downtown Toronto.
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but that logistics area around the airport had more jobs than downtown Toronto.
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And was at that time claiming to be the largest commercial center in Canada,
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that kept going when other people were told to stay home.
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Where is the line on when investing in transit makes sense and when it doesn't?
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sometimes transit doesn't work in other situations.
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I have a bike that I don't ride as much as I should.
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but I've also lived in areas where they decide we're going to spend billions on transit.
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in a light rail system that will cost $5 billion.
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I don't think that it needs that sort of transit.
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I think it could use a better bus system and improve roads,
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but I don't know that that's the right investment.
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Is there a population or density tipping point for transit?
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Because every single municipal council is on the bandwagon of,
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Take a look at the route maps of transit systems around the world,
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And you're going to find they generally tend to focus on downtown.
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in Toronto or in Montreal or in Vancouver is that is the place where the
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downtown Toronto is maybe three 50 and downtown Vancouver,
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and I can't remember what the exact figure is in Toronto,
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60 or 70% of the people who work in downtown Toronto get there by transit.
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And we can argue about how much the subsidies would be,
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but that is the only place transit can serve effectively.
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the other major use of transit is providing mobility to people that,
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And this would be for other trips as well as commuting.
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people in poverty who are working tend to use their cars almost as much as
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the general public public transit is not that big a deal.
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where they don't even have a downtown with all due respect and the money
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it's never going to make a difference in Phoenix.
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It's never going to make a difference in Seattle or Portland,
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one must think about the fact that transit is about downtown and that's the
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but the last time I looked the number of trips that go through union
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that is either get on or get off at union station,
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much further out than the TTC or the subway or anything like that.
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when you're talking about so many people coming into a,
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trying to build highways to facilitate it without,
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just expanding the highways to 24 lanes each way.
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That would be insufferable highway congestion and highway traffic at the same time.
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But the war on the car does seem to go everywhere.
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it was something that downtown urban planners thought about.
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you might have a suburban town with an urban planner that thought differently.
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Has it changed within the urban planning set where most people are just in,
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in one mindset and trying to push this idea that,
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especially as a result of the pandemic and it having proven many of the
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they may be being a little more successful in getting their ideology out,
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I challenge anybody to show me anywhere where there has been any material
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And the reason for that is we're not building new downtown areas.
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or actually the six largest metropolitan areas,
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because Edmonton and Calgary do pretty well as well.
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these downtown areas have had some growth in all of that,
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but you can go to most of the metropolitan areas of the United States.
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So we've got 56 that are almost as large as Calgary and Edmonton.
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And they may have downtowns and they may very well have some impressive buildings,
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but in none of these urban areas or metropolitan areas,
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do you find that more than about five to 7% of people that work in the metropolitan area use transit to get to work?
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And that's because they can get wherever they're going far faster by car.
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I've often used DFW as an example to compare to,
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the planners always like to talk about how all these cars make a slow down traffic and everything like that.
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Fort Worth is five minutes shorter than in the Toronto CMA.
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And the fact is the reason the car is dominant is because it meets the needs of the people in a way that transit can't.
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I too was a transit rider for 15 years to downtown Los Angeles and enjoyed it a great deal.
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I couldn't have gotten there anywhere to anywhere else in the city on transit in a reasonable period of time.
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And that is often a big part of the problem is that,
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my oldest son to army cadets and it was a five minute drive,
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but it was an hour and a half bus route because of the circuitous route that you had to take in three transfers.
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It wasn't a system designed in a way that made sense for moving people around,
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except civil servants going down to the Parliament Hill area.
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I took the bus to army cadets because it made sense.
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and I think that that's something that the urban planners,
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And I think our politicians have to start understanding.
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Have politicians in much of North America been captured by these ideas?
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And I'm not speaking of any in particular here because of quite frankly,
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the group think that takes over the establishment oriented group think that takes over,
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And so that a counselor that sort of sees the problems is,
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is liable to be in real trouble with his or her colleagues.
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of the educational credentials on urban planning and so on.
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including me who have been working for quite a long time to basically point out the contradictions here that show that,
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what is the future in terms of how people want to live?
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Are we going to go through another shift as people perhaps start going back into,
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Are we going to keep seeing a migration outward?
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I haven't looked at the Canada statistics from the 21 census on journey to work in the metro areas,
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we saw an increase of four times in remote work,
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We have an annual survey that's run by the federal government.
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It doesn't mean downtowns are finished or anything,
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I'm always seeing articles in various publications about how all of a sudden,
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the employers are being asked to come in three days.
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downtown Toronto that operates essentially Tuesday through Thursday does not need the same level of transit five days a week that it did before.
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The technical technology has been there for a long time.
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it's where I really don't think building office buildings is a real good investment.
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And that's not investment advice at this point.
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It's been a fun and an enlightening conversation.
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This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.
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and you can help us out by giving us a rating or leaving a review and make sure you tell your friends about us until next time.