Full Comment - February 10, 2025


Why Trump isn’t just joking about taking over Canada anymore


Episode Stats

Length

29 minutes

Words per Minute

169.31802

Word Count

5,045

Sentence Count

345

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

22


Summary

Trump's latest tariffs have the markets on edge and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting new records. Is this a temporary reprieve from the worst week of the year? Or is this the beginning of a permanent trade war with other countries?


Transcript

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00:01:44.900 Trying to keep up with the news, trying to stay current in the age of Trump is not an easy task.
00:02:07.920 The man has a new plan, a new announcement every day, sometimes more than one per day.
00:02:12.420 Hello and welcome to the Full Comment Podcast. I'm Brian Lilly, your host.
00:02:16.180 A week ago, we were supposed to be hit hard with 25% tariffs over what the Trump White House calls concerns about the border.
00:02:22.660 Illegal migration, fentanyl smuggling, and then suddenly, after a revised package of measures was presented by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,
00:02:30.940 and after the stock market took a hit, Donald Trump backed off.
00:02:34.460 He gave us a reprieve of at least 30 days.
00:02:38.340 That's not saying they're going away, but they're at least not there yet.
00:02:42.420 Now, there was a second set of tariffs that would possibly come in April after a study by the American Commerce Department.
00:02:48.880 These were most likely going to be smaller sector-by-sector tariffs on countries and products
00:02:53.280 where the Trump administration feels that other countries, not just Canada, aren't being fair.
00:02:58.860 Then, out of nowhere on Friday, while visiting with the Japanese Prime Minister,
00:03:03.600 Trump said there would be reciprocal tariffs coming next week, and they'll be coming for everyone.
00:03:08.120 I'll be announcing that next week, reciprocal trade, so that we're treated evenly with other countries.
00:03:14.160 We don't want any more or any less, so I'll be announcing that next week.
00:03:19.880 And many other things having to do, not even with trade, but other things.
00:03:24.180 But I'll be talking about reciprocal trade sometime next week.
00:03:27.640 We'll have a news conference and we'll lay it out.
00:03:30.140 Pretty simple.
00:03:30.920 Like I said, it's tough to keep up with Donald Trump and sometimes to know exactly what he means or what he wants.
00:03:37.500 Perhaps that's all part of the plan.
00:03:39.500 Remember the joke about Trump wanting to make Canada the 51st state?
00:03:43.520 Well, I've been saying for a while now that I didn't think Trump was joking anymore.
00:03:47.820 Now, Justin Trudeau has said as much.
00:03:49.800 Speaking to the economic forum he drew together in Toronto on Friday,
00:03:53.240 Trudeau was heard saying on a hot mic that Trump's 51st state comments are serious.
00:03:57.940 But Mr. Trump has it in mind that one of the easiest ways of doing that is, you know,
00:04:04.300 because he would solve our country and it is a real thing in my conversation with him on...
00:04:11.680 Something tells me those were comments that Trudeau wanted to leak out.
00:04:15.200 In my view, this was planned and now he can try and rally the nation behind him.
00:04:20.080 How to figure all of this out?
00:04:21.360 Well, at least the Trump part, where he's coming from.
00:04:24.260 Joel Pollack is a man who understands Donald Trump well.
00:04:26.940 He's written several books about Trump, including the recent one,
00:04:30.100 The Agenda, What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days.
00:04:33.160 He's also the editor-in-chief at Breitbart News.
00:04:36.120 Joel Pollack, join me in conversation from Los Angeles to try and help us understand Trump world.
00:04:42.160 So, Joel, you're a big supporter of Donald Trump.
00:04:44.680 You wrote the book, The Agenda, What He Should Be Doing.
00:04:47.400 I didn't notice tariffs on Canada in your book.
00:04:50.980 What's happening?
00:04:51.880 Well, I did actually talk about using tariffs as a diplomatic tool.
00:04:59.660 And I'm generally a free trader, but Trump showed in his first term that tariffs can actually be
00:05:06.440 a very useful weapon that is non-military,
00:05:11.220 that you can use to achieve foreign policy outcomes.
00:05:15.860 And he's done that again, and he's using it with other countries as well.
00:05:20.480 So, I think that's the spirit in which he's doing it.
00:05:23.880 And I did mention that in my report.
00:05:27.500 Mostly with Canada, you were talking about,
00:05:29.500 let's partner with them to get that sweet oil down there.
00:05:34.340 Yeah.
00:05:34.620 And I didn't have TakeOver Canada on my bingo card either.
00:05:38.740 But you know what?
00:05:40.000 If it was good enough for James Madison to try over 200 years ago, it's good enough for me.
00:05:45.660 Okay.
00:05:46.320 So, we've played the leak audio off the top of, and I say leaked in quotation marks.
00:05:53.600 You know, the prime minister has been in power for nine years,
00:05:57.160 and I never remember him having a hot mic moment like this.
00:06:01.460 So, he clearly wanted this out there, but talking about how...
00:06:06.160 Wait a minute.
00:06:06.820 Wait a minute.
00:06:07.400 He wanted to be caught on a hot mic saying this?
00:06:09.880 Oh, yes.
00:06:10.640 Yes.
00:06:11.000 I absolutely believe that.
00:06:12.720 So, he wanted it out there that Trump is serious about wanting to take over Canada.
00:06:17.640 When you first heard Trump talking about that at the beginning of December,
00:06:21.920 did you think that that was serious, or did you think he was trolling Justin Trudeau,
00:06:26.740 who had not yet announced that he was going to resign?
00:06:28.980 So, let me respond, first of all, to Trudeau doing it on purpose.
00:06:36.000 There's actually some wisdom to that.
00:06:40.420 It sounds like it's incompetence, but if he did it on purpose,
00:06:44.920 and again, I don't want to give him credit for doing it,
00:06:46.820 because he has been caught on hot mics before talking about Trump and not on purpose.
00:06:51.280 But the reason to do it on purpose is a negotiation technique called tying your own hands.
00:06:59.180 So, there are different reasons negotiators might want to make it clear that they have no flexibility.
00:07:04.800 When you go into a negotiation with someone who's opposed to your interests,
00:07:11.200 sometimes you want to make it clear that you have no alternatives,
00:07:14.700 that the offer you're making is a final offer, your hands are tied.
00:07:18.480 If you brought back a different offer to the people who are paying you or the people you represent,
00:07:22.400 they would kill you or fire you or whatever.
00:07:24.060 So, it's a way of gaining leverage with an opponent.
00:07:28.240 It's also a way, if you do have to bring a bad offer back to your constituency,
00:07:33.820 it's a way of telling them,
00:07:35.900 listen, I had no alternative, this is what I had to do.
00:07:39.100 So, it looks like Trudeau is trying to sell his concessions to Trump to the Canadian public
00:07:46.500 by saying, I had no idea, he's really scary, he wants to take over Canada,
00:07:53.100 we're going to have to delete all the U's out of our words,
00:07:57.160 you know, like, color will just be C-O-L-O-R.
00:08:00.660 I mean, that's very scary.
00:08:03.500 So, you know, favor, F-A-B-O-R.
00:08:07.020 So, anyway, we're not going to be able to,
00:08:09.320 anyway, I could go on with the jokes,
00:08:11.220 but, you know, look, there's some wisdom to it.
00:08:13.940 Now, was Trump serious?
00:08:17.240 The answer is yes.
00:08:19.420 The answer is yes.
00:08:20.800 You think even back in late November, early December,
00:08:24.140 when this started, that he was serious?
00:08:26.280 Because I thought he was just,
00:08:27.840 you guys at Breitbart have had a lot of fun picking on Justin Trudeau.
00:08:31.420 And so I thought, you know, okay,
00:08:33.760 everyone on the right in the United States loves mocking Trudeau,
00:08:37.080 he's pretty boy, he's sock boy,
00:08:38.980 you know, this will just tease him.
00:08:41.260 That's what I thought Trump was doing.
00:08:42.640 I think he's serious now, but I didn't then.
00:08:46.460 Well, look, I'm going to give you another little clue
00:08:49.140 as to how Donald Trump thinks.
00:08:51.440 Donald Trump never proposes something
00:08:53.120 that someone else didn't already propose.
00:08:55.760 And I don't mean James Madison.
00:08:58.480 But a few years ago,
00:08:59.860 when there was a serious threat
00:09:02.420 of the separation of Quebec from the rest of Canada,
00:09:07.200 the eastern provinces of Canada said that
00:09:09.500 if that happened, they would secede from Canada
00:09:11.340 and join the United States.
00:09:13.040 So it's not like he came up with the idea out of thin air
00:09:15.520 that there would be at least parts of Canada
00:09:17.800 that could become American states.
00:09:22.140 So it is trolling.
00:09:24.180 And the way he did it was humorous.
00:09:26.500 And he said that Justin Trudeau could be the governor of Canada
00:09:29.780 and that the best way to avoid the tariff issue
00:09:31.680 would just be to join the United States,
00:09:33.620 then there's no tariffs.
00:09:35.040 You know, by the way, under our constitution,
00:09:36.480 we have no tariffs.
00:09:37.440 One state cannot put tariffs on another.
00:09:39.880 But I do think there's an element of it that's serious,
00:09:44.180 which is to say there is some precedent for this.
00:09:47.740 Trump knows it, or at least heard about it.
00:09:50.740 And that's why this is a credible threat.
00:09:54.380 Now, did Trudeau think it was a credible threat?
00:09:56.500 I don't know.
00:09:57.040 I can tell you just as a student of history
00:09:58.800 that the history of American attempts to take over Canada
00:10:03.600 is littered with failure.
00:10:07.440 I mean, James Madison is one of my favorite presidents,
00:10:09.560 but he really made a huge strategic miscalculation
00:10:13.040 in the War of 1812.
00:10:14.640 Ultimately, the United States won the war,
00:10:17.600 but the part of the war that was fought in Canada
00:10:20.360 around the Great Lakes and so forth,
00:10:23.060 Canada won that part decisively.
00:10:25.200 So again, it was under British rule.
00:10:27.680 So a little bit different,
00:10:29.660 but essentially my Canadian relatives
00:10:31.800 have long reminded me that Canada
00:10:33.820 essentially won the War of 1812.
00:10:36.360 And that's true.
00:10:37.540 American ambitions for more colonial possessions
00:10:42.640 north of the current border
00:10:44.260 have never really ended well.
00:10:45.760 So I don't know that it would work out well for us.
00:10:48.960 And Canada is a very big country
00:10:50.960 with a lot of different environments
00:10:53.760 that make it difficult for even Canada
00:10:56.720 to govern Canada.
00:10:57.520 But I do think that with regard
00:10:59.740 to some of the eastern provinces
00:11:01.000 on the Atlantic side,
00:11:04.100 Nova Scotia, et cetera,
00:11:06.160 I mean, I think there could be
00:11:08.400 some reality to the threat.
00:11:12.780 In terms of tariffs, though,
00:11:15.460 as a means to an end,
00:11:19.400 he's kind of played two different games with Canada,
00:11:22.780 and then this third one with Europe
00:11:24.260 and everyone else on Friday
00:11:26.780 when he announced tariffs for everyone
00:11:28.860 while the Japanese prime minister was visiting.
00:11:31.920 Hey, look, that got immediate reaction.
00:11:33.760 The EU said that they would drop their tariffs
00:11:36.300 on American cars.
00:11:37.680 Right now it's 2.5% tariff on a European car.
00:11:41.940 Let's say you get a Beamer made in Germany
00:11:44.480 and you get it shipped over to the States.
00:11:45.940 There's a 2.5% tariff on it.
00:11:47.800 But if you want an F-150,
00:11:49.780 there's a 10% tariff on it
00:11:51.280 if you get it shipped to Germany.
00:11:53.960 And he has long said that this is a problem.
00:11:57.640 My understanding is that you right away said,
00:11:59.980 oh, yeah, we'll fix that.
00:12:01.560 So, I mean, it's a big swinging dick move
00:12:04.780 and it annoys a lot of people,
00:12:07.240 but it's working, isn't it?
00:12:09.080 It does work because with Donald Trump,
00:12:13.820 you don't know if he's going to follow through or not.
00:12:15.760 And sometimes he does follow through.
00:12:18.200 And likewise with the plan to take over Gaza.
00:12:22.100 I mean, people fell out of their chairs
00:12:24.100 at the press conference
00:12:24.880 when he said the United States is going to own Gaza.
00:12:27.580 But he could be serious.
00:12:29.420 And actually, it wouldn't be that hard to do.
00:12:32.060 People say, well, what about Iraq?
00:12:33.960 What about terrorism?
00:12:35.040 American soldiers would be getting shot at,
00:12:37.700 bombed and all that,
00:12:38.400 just like Israeli soldiers
00:12:39.580 are getting shot at and bombed.
00:12:40.680 And that's true,
00:12:41.840 except Gaza is actually a very small area
00:12:43.740 where Israel's done most of the fighting already.
00:12:46.380 And if you have the United States coming in,
00:12:48.320 the U.S. is much less constrained than Israel
00:12:50.560 in how it deals with these conflicts.
00:12:53.760 Israel's a small state
00:12:54.960 currently dependent on the United States,
00:12:58.380 not to do the fighting,
00:12:59.280 but at least to supply the weapons.
00:13:01.600 And that means that Israel had to yield
00:13:04.740 to what the Biden administration wanted it to do.
00:13:06.580 It had to be very careful
00:13:07.600 about rules of engagement.
00:13:09.300 It's not really the case with the United States.
00:13:11.280 I mean, there are complaints
00:13:12.500 and there were complaints in Afghanistan and Iraq
00:13:15.400 by human rights groups and so forth,
00:13:17.340 but they just don't go anywhere
00:13:18.740 when you're dealing with the world superpower.
00:13:21.540 And so I think that having the United States
00:13:24.400 in charge of Gaza might actually make sense.
00:13:27.620 And even if it doesn't make sense,
00:13:30.380 Trump, by showing interest in Gaza,
00:13:32.780 highlighted its value.
00:13:33.980 We treat it as a kind of impoverished hellhole,
00:13:37.860 which it is in many ways.
00:13:39.300 But once someone says,
00:13:40.760 hey, wait a minute,
00:13:41.360 there are nice beaches there.
00:13:42.900 It's in a strategic location.
00:13:44.540 It's next to one of the world's
00:13:46.160 most dynamic economies, Israel.
00:13:47.980 I mean, there is some strategic value in having it.
00:13:50.880 It's like when you see a real estate investor
00:13:52.920 suddenly take interest in an empty lot,
00:13:54.820 the price of the lot goes up,
00:13:56.080 even if nothing's been built.
00:13:57.660 So that's what Trump did.
00:13:59.900 He basically raised the value of Gaza
00:14:01.580 simply by saying he wanted to own it.
00:14:03.600 And I think the idea is to entice
00:14:05.140 other Arab countries to finally do something
00:14:07.540 for the Palestinians,
00:14:09.360 finally do something to solve the problem.
00:14:10.840 Try and get Saudi Arabia in there.
00:14:13.320 Yeah, but if that doesn't work,
00:14:15.660 he could very well take it.
00:14:16.820 And you know what?
00:14:17.420 It's not the worst thing in the world
00:14:18.920 because it is on the Mediterranean.
00:14:22.260 It does have a lot of potential
00:14:24.160 if you clean it up.
00:14:25.540 It could be the Dubai of the West,
00:14:27.700 the Dubai in the western part of the Middle East,
00:14:30.500 Dubai on the Mediterranean.
00:14:32.360 Yeah.
00:14:33.440 You know, when I was in Israel,
00:14:34.820 I just kept hearing that.
00:14:36.600 And sadly, instead,
00:14:38.280 you get a lot of fighting, death and destruction.
00:14:42.220 I did not expect all of these things.
00:14:47.400 And this is part of why I wanted to talk to you.
00:14:49.900 This is not what I expected
00:14:51.280 for the first three weeks
00:14:52.240 of the second Trump administration.
00:14:54.640 I expected him to go hard,
00:14:56.440 to go fast,
00:14:57.300 to use a lot of executive orders,
00:14:58.780 which he's doing.
00:15:02.220 But, you know,
00:15:03.800 the way it was described to me
00:15:05.580 by an American civil servant
00:15:10.280 I was talking to,
00:15:11.000 he said,
00:15:11.580 he's basically keeping everyone off balance
00:15:14.320 so that he can move the ball
00:15:16.200 as far down the field as he can
00:15:17.780 before anyone wakes up
00:15:20.060 and tries to stop him,
00:15:21.100 either whether it's Congress or the courts.
00:15:23.100 He has no opposition
00:15:24.040 because nobody can get their balance
00:15:25.560 with one crazy announcement after another.
00:15:28.880 Like, I mean, the Gaza thing.
00:15:29.900 What?
00:15:30.380 Where did that come from?
00:15:32.540 He opened up by talking about,
00:15:35.140 during the campaign,
00:15:36.000 maybe 10% tariffs on Canada.
00:15:38.400 It's before inauguration,
00:15:39.900 but after he'd already won,
00:15:41.420 he said,
00:15:41.720 no, it's going to be 25%
00:15:43.020 if you don't fix your border.
00:15:44.280 That wasn't even being discussed.
00:15:46.200 That wasn't in Project 2025.
00:15:48.060 That wasn't in the campaign promises.
00:15:49.660 It's just something new all the time.
00:15:52.740 And in many ways,
00:15:54.880 it does seem to be working,
00:15:56.060 keeping everyone on their toes.
00:15:59.060 It does work,
00:15:59.800 which is why he does it.
00:16:00.660 But there's also a reason
00:16:01.920 that he's doing it,
00:16:03.840 which I talked about in my book as well.
00:16:05.880 And that reason is that
00:16:07.520 Democrats in Trump's first term
00:16:10.200 were able to tie up
00:16:12.060 Trump policies
00:16:13.660 by suing in the courts
00:16:15.760 and getting these nationwide injunctions
00:16:17.460 from individual federal judges
00:16:19.800 in friendly jurisdictions
00:16:20.820 like Washington State
00:16:22.340 and California
00:16:23.060 and Oregon and Hawaii.
00:16:24.880 And Trump knew that this time
00:16:26.860 he had to overwhelm
00:16:28.060 that opposition.
00:16:29.800 He had to overwhelm
00:16:30.500 what we call lawfare
00:16:31.420 by proposing so many actions at once
00:16:34.880 that even if they tried to sue,
00:16:37.440 the sheer expense of filing
00:16:39.280 hundreds of lawsuits
00:16:40.580 would be too much
00:16:42.420 and would increase the chances
00:16:44.320 that at least some of his policies
00:16:46.300 would survive these attempts
00:16:48.740 by Democrats
00:16:49.480 to bog them down in the courts.
00:16:51.300 So there is a strategy to it,
00:16:52.860 which is not just about
00:16:53.820 distracting people
00:16:54.720 or moving the ball downfield.
00:16:56.160 It's also about overwhelming
00:16:57.780 the opposition
00:16:59.480 so that he can actually
00:17:00.620 govern this time.
00:17:03.040 We need to take a quick ad break,
00:17:04.420 but when we come back,
00:17:05.160 I want to ask you more
00:17:05.880 about what is on Trump's agenda.
00:17:07.700 Back in moments.
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00:17:21.780 Scotiabank.
00:17:22.460 You're richer than you think.
00:17:24.340 Joel, we're still pretty much
00:17:26.320 in shock and awe
00:17:27.560 up here in Canada
00:17:28.720 about the whole tariff issue.
00:17:30.980 There's the 25%
00:17:32.360 which Howard Lutnik
00:17:33.640 and Ken Haslett
00:17:34.980 and everybody else says,
00:17:37.120 oh, that's just aimed
00:17:37.880 at the border,
00:17:38.460 but Peter Navarro says that.
00:17:40.060 Deal with the fentanyl crisis.
00:17:41.620 Our government is in denial
00:17:42.820 that Canada has anything
00:17:43.940 to do with it.
00:17:45.140 In fact,
00:17:45.720 they keep using different numbers
00:17:47.000 than custom border and patrol
00:17:49.000 and what Tom Homan uses,
00:17:51.060 which I'm not sure is smart.
00:17:52.620 I think it'll just annoy them more.
00:17:55.540 But they've proposed something
00:17:58.000 and then when that wasn't good enough,
00:17:59.940 they proposed more,
00:18:00.800 including tackling issues
00:18:03.500 around money laundering
00:18:04.520 for the cartels.
00:18:06.240 But those sectoral tariffs,
00:18:10.540 is Trump a believer in free trade?
00:18:13.640 Is the Republican Party
00:18:15.420 a believer in free trade anymore?
00:18:16.960 Because there was a time
00:18:18.320 when you and I
00:18:19.860 would have been aligned
00:18:20.720 on free trade,
00:18:21.560 when anybody running
00:18:22.880 under the Republican banner
00:18:24.120 would have been aligned
00:18:24.880 on free trade.
00:18:25.620 It seems like there's
00:18:26.600 a complete shift
00:18:28.200 in Washington
00:18:29.020 and in the GOP.
00:18:32.640 I don't think there's a shift.
00:18:33.900 I just think that
00:18:34.500 the circumstances are different.
00:18:36.060 And the circumstance
00:18:36.680 that we're all dealing with,
00:18:37.920 including Canada,
00:18:38.780 is that China has exploited
00:18:41.040 the rules of free trade
00:18:42.180 to destroy foreign industries
00:18:45.040 and to do so strategically
00:18:48.180 and to choke off strategic points
00:18:51.760 in the economy
00:18:52.520 and in world trade.
00:18:55.280 So you're not seeing
00:18:57.500 an abandonment of the idea
00:18:59.160 of free trade
00:19:00.380 and the economics of free trade,
00:19:02.720 but you're seeing
00:19:03.260 an acknowledgement that
00:19:04.240 when one major actor
00:19:06.980 in the free trade system,
00:19:08.060 and they were admitted
00:19:09.020 25 years ago,
00:19:10.440 China was,
00:19:10.920 to the World Trade Organization,
00:19:12.360 when one player decides
00:19:13.820 to exploit the rules
00:19:16.580 in ways that damage
00:19:19.480 all of the other players
00:19:20.860 economically,
00:19:21.700 then people are going
00:19:23.580 to reevaluate.
00:19:24.540 So in theory, yes,
00:19:25.980 free trade is good,
00:19:27.260 but not if one major player
00:19:30.700 is cheating
00:19:31.420 and then people have
00:19:32.740 to protect their economies,
00:19:34.440 they have to protect
00:19:34.980 their sovereignty,
00:19:35.700 they have to protect workers
00:19:36.760 and other interests,
00:19:38.160 and that's what you're seeing.
00:19:39.680 So until there's a solution
00:19:41.460 for the problem
00:19:42.260 that China poses
00:19:43.580 to the global economic system,
00:19:45.840 then you are going
00:19:47.140 to see people
00:19:47.800 more enthusiastic
00:19:48.900 about protections
00:19:50.840 for industry
00:19:51.420 than they are
00:19:51.840 for freedom of trade.
00:19:52.700 Well, that's why
00:19:55.780 I believe in free trade
00:19:56.700 between similar economies
00:19:57.960 such as Canada
00:19:59.040 and the United States.
00:20:01.140 Adding in Mexico
00:20:02.520 to NAFTA
00:20:03.320 kind of altered that.
00:20:04.900 Adding China
00:20:05.520 into the WTO
00:20:07.160 definitely altered that.
00:20:09.360 They don't follow the rules.
00:20:11.140 It's not a level playing field
00:20:12.480 in terms of
00:20:13.320 labor standards,
00:20:14.940 environmental standards,
00:20:16.020 any standards.
00:20:17.080 Talk to people
00:20:17.760 who have managed
00:20:18.280 big projects in China
00:20:19.560 from a Western standpoint.
00:20:22.240 And I remember
00:20:23.120 one guy telling me
00:20:23.980 he shows up
00:20:24.500 at the job site
00:20:25.140 and they said,
00:20:26.040 oh, yeah,
00:20:26.820 there was a death.
00:20:27.440 Don't worry.
00:20:27.880 We didn't lose any time.
00:20:28.880 We just pushed
00:20:29.660 the body aside.
00:20:31.080 That was a construction project.
00:20:32.860 I mean,
00:20:33.060 it's a very different
00:20:34.560 set of rules
00:20:36.820 that China plays by
00:20:37.940 on every front.
00:20:40.140 But, you know,
00:20:41.800 we've expanded free trade.
00:20:44.000 Look at the
00:20:44.840 Trans-Pacific Partnership.
00:20:46.480 What did you guys
00:20:47.260 call that at Breitbart
00:20:48.140 for the longest time?
00:20:48.900 Obama trade?
00:20:49.560 Or something like that?
00:20:51.140 You put it off on them.
00:20:53.140 We're trading with countries
00:20:54.860 that, beyond China,
00:20:56.680 you know,
00:20:56.880 Vietnam doesn't have
00:20:57.660 the same standards.
00:20:58.680 And we've opened up
00:20:59.900 our markets
00:21:00.400 to products
00:21:01.760 from around the world
00:21:02.560 that will undercut us.
00:21:05.740 Right.
00:21:06.360 Well,
00:21:07.380 we have to look at that.
00:21:08.760 I think the problem
00:21:09.440 with the Trans-Pacific Partnership
00:21:10.700 was similar to the problem
00:21:12.780 with USAID,
00:21:14.160 if you've been following
00:21:14.760 that story,
00:21:16.380 which is that
00:21:17.120 there are some arrangements
00:21:19.680 that sound nice
00:21:20.500 in theory
00:21:21.020 but are so controlled
00:21:22.560 by Washington
00:21:24.580 and special interest groups
00:21:26.080 in Washington,
00:21:27.180 that the public feels
00:21:28.020 it has no way
00:21:29.160 of understanding
00:21:31.300 what's going on
00:21:32.140 or holding anybody
00:21:32.940 accountable for what
00:21:33.960 they're supposed
00:21:34.500 to be doing.
00:21:35.700 With USAID,
00:21:36.700 there are all kinds
00:21:37.420 of projects
00:21:38.040 that sound nice
00:21:38.860 and those are the ones
00:21:39.560 Democrats want to talk about,
00:21:40.680 but the reality is
00:21:41.700 that USAID
00:21:42.940 is also funneling money
00:21:44.080 to a lot of
00:21:44.620 very dubious things
00:21:45.640 and a lot of
00:21:47.780 Beltway organizations.
00:21:48.940 Some of that
00:21:49.220 Washington money
00:21:50.720 never even leaves
00:21:51.440 Washington
00:21:51.880 to go overseas
00:21:53.040 to help struggling
00:21:54.680 third world countries
00:21:55.920 or whatever.
00:21:57.060 And so,
00:21:57.660 it's the same
00:21:58.580 with the
00:21:59.280 Trans-Pacific Partnership.
00:22:00.980 People felt like
00:22:01.780 this was being negotiated
00:22:02.780 at a remove
00:22:03.560 from the public,
00:22:05.000 that it came
00:22:06.000 on the heels
00:22:07.540 of other trade agreements
00:22:08.500 that hadn't worked out
00:22:09.400 so well,
00:22:09.840 that were still
00:22:10.380 being criticized,
00:22:12.040 that needed to be revised,
00:22:13.380 and yet there was
00:22:14.540 this rush to push it through.
00:22:15.780 Now,
00:22:16.100 I think the idea
00:22:17.160 of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
00:22:18.100 is good because
00:22:18.840 ultimately you need
00:22:20.800 a free trade alliance
00:22:23.940 outside of China.
00:22:25.240 The point of TPP
00:22:26.280 would have been
00:22:27.640 to protect
00:22:29.220 the industrial world
00:22:32.140 or the partners
00:22:33.140 to TPP
00:22:33.680 from having to
00:22:36.040 submit to these
00:22:36.860 Chinese dictates
00:22:37.820 on trade.
00:22:39.400 And I think
00:22:40.200 that's a nice idea
00:22:40.880 in theory,
00:22:41.520 but the fear
00:22:42.680 was that
00:22:43.220 the people
00:22:43.880 putting this
00:22:44.360 trade deal together
00:22:45.320 were basically
00:22:45.820 going to line
00:22:46.360 their pockets
00:22:47.020 without providing
00:22:49.020 the promised benefit
00:22:50.080 of protection
00:22:51.380 from China.
00:22:52.380 I mean,
00:22:52.680 what did TPP
00:22:53.900 really do
00:22:54.700 to make sure
00:22:55.640 that China
00:22:56.280 would not
00:22:57.720 exploit the system
00:22:58.840 further?
00:23:00.720 And,
00:23:01.300 you know,
00:23:02.660 look at
00:23:02.960 a free trade agreement
00:23:03.780 we have with
00:23:04.280 several African countries,
00:23:05.500 AGOA,
00:23:05.800 the Africa Growth
00:23:06.440 and Opportunity Act.
00:23:07.180 Well,
00:23:08.960 there are factories
00:23:09.800 in Africa
00:23:10.300 that are selling
00:23:10.980 to the U.S.
00:23:12.140 market because
00:23:12.740 of that act,
00:23:14.400 but at the same time
00:23:15.140 there are also
00:23:15.640 Chinese manufacturers
00:23:17.200 who've simply
00:23:17.860 relocated to Africa
00:23:19.560 and are using
00:23:21.720 AGOA
00:23:22.300 to enrich themselves.
00:23:24.980 Now,
00:23:25.260 maybe that's okay
00:23:25.980 anyway because
00:23:26.660 you just want to see
00:23:27.540 Africans getting jobs
00:23:29.000 and African industry
00:23:29.900 developing,
00:23:30.720 and if China's
00:23:31.420 investing there,
00:23:32.060 okay.
00:23:32.300 but the point
00:23:34.060 is that
00:23:34.500 you're still
00:23:35.500 giving China
00:23:36.460 preferential treatment
00:23:37.580 through an African
00:23:38.660 backdoor
00:23:39.320 and,
00:23:40.440 you know,
00:23:41.280 that kind of thing
00:23:41.900 just has to stop.
00:23:43.360 So,
00:23:44.020 I think Americans
00:23:45.120 are becoming
00:23:45.560 rightly skeptical
00:23:46.480 of some of these
00:23:47.280 agreements
00:23:47.940 and assumptions
00:23:48.560 that are made
00:23:49.760 in policy circles
00:23:50.560 about what kind
00:23:51.280 of trade arrangements
00:23:51.920 are the best.
00:23:53.380 People want to know
00:23:54.300 that they can
00:23:54.900 earn a living,
00:23:55.960 that they can invest,
00:23:56.680 and they're not going
00:23:57.080 to be destroyed
00:23:57.660 by unfair foreign competition.
00:23:59.280 Does unfair
00:24:02.600 foreign competition
00:24:03.880 include Canada
00:24:05.140 beyond your
00:24:05.980 dislike of our
00:24:07.560 socialized
00:24:08.760 supply management
00:24:09.960 system for milk
00:24:11.000 and dairy?
00:24:13.180 Yes,
00:24:13.720 I think that
00:24:14.300 the Toronto Blue Jays
00:24:15.440 are unfair foreign
00:24:16.420 competition for,
00:24:18.400 you know,
00:24:19.180 you know,
00:24:20.880 it depends.
00:24:21.760 I mean,
00:24:22.160 you've touched on
00:24:22.920 the agricultural issue,
00:24:23.940 which I think is important.
00:24:25.440 But,
00:24:26.100 again,
00:24:26.380 I don't see us
00:24:27.160 as necessarily
00:24:27.960 being trade rivals
00:24:28.960 with Canada
00:24:29.500 in a broader sense.
00:24:30.740 I do think
00:24:31.360 that this is a case
00:24:32.060 of Trump
00:24:32.440 using tariffs
00:24:33.300 to achieve
00:24:35.280 other foreign policy
00:24:36.380 goals,
00:24:37.240 and in this case
00:24:38.060 to strengthen
00:24:38.620 the border.
00:24:40.240 Now,
00:24:40.620 when we think
00:24:41.420 of our border
00:24:41.920 problems,
00:24:42.480 our migrants
00:24:43.820 and our federal,
00:24:44.500 we don't think of it.
00:24:45.780 But,
00:24:46.240 there are problems
00:24:47.820 on the northern border.
00:24:48.740 People have actually
00:24:49.260 been making me aware
00:24:50.000 of some of these problems
00:24:50.820 long before this issue
00:24:52.260 arose with Trump
00:24:53.180 drawing attention to it.
00:24:54.940 And,
00:24:55.420 I think Trump
00:24:56.900 wants all the help
00:24:57.460 he can get.
00:24:57.920 And,
00:24:58.160 I think that
00:24:58.740 it's not going
00:24:59.780 to cost Canada
00:25:00.460 very much
00:25:00.920 to make this concession.
00:25:02.560 So,
00:25:03.760 why not give Trump
00:25:04.640 what he wants?
00:25:05.700 You know,
00:25:05.920 I think it's fairly easy.
00:25:07.580 Especially because,
00:25:08.540 as Justin Trudeau says,
00:25:09.520 Trump wants to take over
00:25:10.340 Canada.
00:25:11.400 By the way,
00:25:12.900 I don't know that
00:25:13.900 Trump wants to take over
00:25:14.620 Canada.
00:25:15.060 I mean,
00:25:15.320 maybe parts of Canada.
00:25:16.980 Ottawa is really cold.
00:25:18.860 You know what I mean?
00:25:19.400 It's really cold up there.
00:25:21.300 And that's just Ottawa.
00:25:21.980 I lived there for 20 years.
00:25:24.000 Yeah.
00:25:24.720 I lived there for 20 years.
00:25:26.380 I don't miss the weather.
00:25:29.000 But you say you're not sure
00:25:31.360 he wants to take over Canada.
00:25:32.620 Your former colleague,
00:25:33.580 Steve Bannon,
00:25:34.200 who wrote the foreword
00:25:35.000 to the agenda,
00:25:36.940 he's been giving interviews
00:25:38.820 saying,
00:25:39.800 yeah,
00:25:40.560 Trump does want
00:25:42.520 to take over Canada.
00:25:43.500 And I know Bannon
00:25:44.540 and Trump
00:25:44.980 don't talk all that much anymore.
00:25:47.640 They're not tight
00:25:48.300 like they used to be.
00:25:49.120 But he says he does want
00:25:50.420 to take over Canada.
00:25:51.260 And here's why.
00:25:51.860 And he points to defense.
00:25:53.720 Now,
00:25:54.440 you know,
00:25:55.320 as well as I do,
00:25:56.640 that our defense budget
00:25:57.560 is next to nothing.
00:25:59.180 It's,
00:25:59.560 it's,
00:26:00.420 you know,
00:26:01.060 we can't send troops
00:26:03.000 over to Ukraine,
00:26:04.200 but we did send some
00:26:05.300 gender-based analysis
00:26:06.740 advisors
00:26:07.940 to tell Ukraine.
00:26:10.080 Yeah.
00:26:10.480 Well,
00:26:10.720 I mean,
00:26:11.040 look,
00:26:11.380 when you're fighting
00:26:11.920 for the life of your country,
00:26:13.760 what you really need
00:26:14.580 are gender-based analysis
00:26:15.740 advisors.
00:26:18.060 He did send some
00:26:19.040 of those over.
00:26:19.660 If they can shoot straight,
00:26:20.520 you know,
00:26:21.040 hire them.
00:26:23.280 The,
00:26:23.620 but Bannon says
00:26:25.400 because we're,
00:26:26.360 Canada's unable
00:26:27.060 to protect the Arctic
00:26:28.280 and that China
00:26:29.840 and Russia
00:26:30.200 want to get in there
00:26:31.580 that the United States
00:26:33.380 will have to take over.
00:26:35.480 Now,
00:26:36.040 you said you've got
00:26:36.920 Canadian cousins.
00:26:38.320 You know,
00:26:38.820 they probably don't want
00:26:40.040 to be taken over
00:26:40.680 by the United States.
00:26:41.760 So,
00:26:42.120 you know.
00:26:43.400 Oh,
00:26:44.020 I hate to disappoint you,
00:26:45.920 but some of the jokes
00:26:46.660 going back and forth
00:26:47.520 are pretty funny.
00:26:48.120 You know,
00:26:50.420 I'm not so sure
00:26:51.200 it's as unpopular
00:26:51.960 as you suggest.
00:26:54.080 Well,
00:26:54.320 public polling
00:26:55.280 would say about 80%
00:26:56.460 say no.
00:26:57.200 Well,
00:26:57.560 I got a message
00:26:58.280 from a friend in Canada
00:26:59.120 who said it would certainly
00:26:59.920 make my visa issues
00:27:00.920 go away.
00:27:02.160 So,
00:27:02.480 you know.
00:27:03.680 It would make my,
00:27:04.960 you know,
00:27:06.300 exchange rate problem
00:27:07.340 go away
00:27:07.800 for visiting
00:27:08.360 either Florida
00:27:10.020 or California
00:27:10.660 in the winter.
00:27:11.080 I'll tell you that.
00:27:11.800 I mean,
00:27:12.080 that's not.
00:27:13.260 You can understand that.
00:27:14.860 But look.
00:27:15.700 But I mean,
00:27:16.260 you know,
00:27:16.980 we have been laggards
00:27:18.120 on defense spending.
00:27:19.520 Right.
00:27:20.540 You know,
00:27:20.960 Trudeau's now saying
00:27:22.160 he'll do it,
00:27:22.640 but he's on his way
00:27:23.280 out the door.
00:27:25.320 Listen,
00:27:25.780 I didn't say,
00:27:26.380 I didn't say he wasn't serious.
00:27:27.800 I said he probably was serious.
00:27:29.260 I said I doubted
00:27:30.060 that he meant
00:27:30.520 all of Canada,
00:27:31.180 but that's just my speculation.
00:27:32.600 I mean,
00:27:32.800 you don't know
00:27:33.200 with Donald Trump
00:27:33.840 and that's part of the problem
00:27:35.980 with Trump.
00:27:36.500 It's also part of
00:27:37.220 his great strategic advantage
00:27:38.920 and uncertainty
00:27:40.260 is a massive asset
00:27:41.480 in foreign affairs
00:27:42.300 because
00:27:43.080 if you don't know
00:27:45.500 when your rival
00:27:47.360 is going to act
00:27:48.300 or what they're going to do,
00:27:49.560 it makes the rival
00:27:50.380 a lot more powerful.
00:27:51.860 So Trump is using uncertainty
00:27:54.320 and it's kind of amazing to me
00:27:55.400 because theoretically
00:27:56.420 the world has seen this before
00:27:57.520 and should know about this,
00:27:58.920 but evidently people are
00:28:00.400 just as shocked
00:28:01.400 as they always were.
00:28:03.140 And I just think
00:28:04.480 he's a lot more powerful
00:28:05.380 this time.
00:28:05.840 I know you got to go,
00:28:06.520 so I'll ask you
00:28:07.020 one last question.
00:28:07.760 What should we expect next
00:28:10.140 on the Trump agenda
00:28:11.020 in the coming weeks?
00:28:13.000 The first three weeks
00:28:13.980 have been a heck of a lot
00:28:14.820 to swallow,
00:28:15.360 so what's coming next?
00:28:16.940 I think Russia and Ukraine
00:28:17.900 is going to bring them
00:28:18.780 to the table
00:28:19.340 in terms of what you expect
00:28:21.460 in foreign policy.
00:28:22.320 I mean,
00:28:22.440 there's some domestic policy things.
00:28:24.180 You know,
00:28:24.300 I think there are going to be
00:28:24.960 some massive spending cuts.
00:28:26.440 Those fights are going to continue,
00:28:27.860 but I think you'll drag Russia
00:28:29.460 and Ukraine to the table
00:28:30.280 and then you're going to see
00:28:31.460 more action on Africa,
00:28:33.760 which is another terrain
00:28:34.820 where Russia and China
00:28:36.280 are big rivals.
00:28:37.760 Trump is playing hardball
00:28:38.620 with South Africa,
00:28:39.440 which is the leading
00:28:40.020 economic power there
00:28:41.820 because South Africa
00:28:42.560 has basically been
00:28:43.460 misbehaving for quite some time
00:28:44.880 and Trump is really
00:28:47.180 getting tough with them,
00:28:48.380 so I would watch that as well.
00:28:50.560 All right,
00:28:50.820 Joel Pollack,
00:28:51.760 thanks for the time.
00:28:52.780 You're very welcome.
00:28:53.420 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.
00:28:56.420 My name's Brian Lilly,
00:28:57.340 your host.
00:28:57.920 This episode was produced
00:28:59.020 by Andre Pru.
00:28:59.960 Theme music was by Bryce Hall.
00:29:02.060 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
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00:29:15.400 Thanks for listening.
00:29:16.260 Until next time,
00:29:17.100 I'm Brian Lilly.
00:29:17.780 feel free to leave.
00:29:30.180 Thank you.
00:29:30.780 Bye-bye.
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00:29:34.060 convers scrutiny.
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