Why Trump’s ‘new right’ politics are still a force
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Summary
The U.S. midterms were widely expected to be a red wave, even in some places called a Red Wave, with the Republican Party picking up bigtime seat counts in the Congress and in the Senate. That is not how it played out, however, and many political advisors are now trying to figure out what exactly happened.
Transcript
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The U.S. midterms were widely expected to be a red wave, even in some places called a
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red tsunami, with the Republican Party picking up big-time seat counts in the Congress and
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That is not how it played out, however, and many political advisors, observers, are now
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trying to figure out what exactly happened with the U.S. midterms and what the takeaways
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should be as the U.S. political machines start to gear toward 2024 and the coming presidential
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Many questions are left to be asked concerning the influence of former U.S. President Donald
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Trump, as well as what can be learned from the record amount of money spent in these elections
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across the United States, a total of $16.7 billion spent in state and federal races, breaking
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What are the takeaways from this and what can we expect next in the United States?
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We are joined by the Managing Director of MAD Global Strategy.
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He's a Republican strategist and the chief advisor to J.D. Vance's successful Senate campaign
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Now, there's a lot of big questions for us to tackle together here concerning Donald Trump,
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the Republican Party, the Democrat Party, what the takeaways are from the U.S. midterms.
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But I want to start with what your life has been like over the last several months, working
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on what was one of the hottest contested U.S. Senate campaigns in the country, in Ohio.
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J.D. Vance, who, full disclosure, is a good friend of mine, was successful in winning the
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Many people expected it to be competitive, but he certainly pulled away in the final vote
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But you've been at this from not just this general election, but also working on the primary
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What is it like to work on one of these campaigns that are receiving so much national and international
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But before I go into that, when you did your intro and you talked about how many billions
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But going into this last – so it's actually been 19 months since the incumbent senator,
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Rob Portman, here in Ohio, announced that he was not going to run and J.D. started
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to think about it, you know, J.D.'s an interesting guy.
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So I'll say this before we go into what happened last year.
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He was the first Ohioan to ever be elected to the Senate without ever having run for any
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So this is not something that actually has ever happened.
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It's a historic election from that perspective.
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So that kind of thing actually presents its own challenges and opportunities too.
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You know, when J.D. first started to decide to do this, we had to build a structure from
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When you put a major campaign together, usually you have someone that's run for office before,
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someone that's got some inroads, and he basically had none of that.
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So we were able to build something from scratch.
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And the good thing about that is you can actually build it the right way and you don't have the
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baggage of, you know, past failures, but there's also a challenge to scalability.
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And I think because of that, he was a severe underdog, even though folks, you know, in
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conservative media, folks maybe that are very high information voters knew who he was.
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The electorate didn't know who he was, and certainly the political establishment was
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So I live here in Columbus, Ohio, which is the capital of the state.
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And, you know, I'm probably known as a very establishment Republican, and there's a lot
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of lobbyists and a lot of political operatives that live around me and work around me.
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And I'm going to tell you, the amount of people that thought that J.D. would be the next
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senator, I could count on one hand when we first started the process.
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So that's something you have to overcome, and that took a long time.
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Um, I'll say, you know, my life, when you talk about me personally, I mean, you know,
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So I don't know that that changed so much, but certainly the focus and what we were trying
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to do was, was, uh, took up a large part of it.
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Uh, you know, you have to build a strategy that is unique to J.D.'s, uh, strengths and
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You have to build a team that's unique to strengths and weaknesses.
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And I'll give him a lot of credit for someone that's never done something like this.
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And we had a very contentious primary, as you alluded to.
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And if you want to talk about that, we can, because that was, uh, a primary where there
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was probably, uh, north of $90 million spent, um, in it, uh, here in Ohio, which, uh, was
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And we came into it, uh, in a general election where we had a Democrat candidate who, uh, was
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pretending to be a moderate who spent 40 or $50 million and a lot of that against us too.
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When you, you know, talk about the amount of money that goes into these American elections,
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Jay, just for perspective, like, you know, Canadian election laws are very different.
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And so we're spending a small fraction in a national race as what gets spent in a midterm,
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um, election in the U S I mean, it's just such a big difference in scale.
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Like, what is it like doing politics with that much money?
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How does it affect the decisions that you guys make?
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And, and, you know, I've been doing this now for 26 years.
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Um, and I remember when, uh, so what, what you're talking about is something that I still
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have to wrap my head around because the money is scaled up so much.
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Bush first started running and I was on a campaign that was against him in a primary and, uh, we
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didn't go very far, but, um, we were, you know, our goal was to raise $8 million for
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Bush came in, I think the number was like 18 million and this is a presidential primary.
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And we were like aghast that he had this much money and it was, it was just a jaw dropping
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And that wasn't when you look at it that long ago.
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Um, and now, you know, if it's like 18 million, $20 million in ante for a U S Senate primary
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in, uh, you know, uh, a fairly large state like Ohio, but it is just amazing.
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Certainly there are consultants and, uh, there are, there's polling and there's other things
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that you, but it is almost exclusively all that money goes to put money on TV and obviously
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Um, there are other campaigns that will spend some different proportions in terms of what that
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So if we go back to the Ohio race, which again, you know, JD Vance, uh, won as a Republican,
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uh, by a sizable margin of the vote, uh, declared fairly early on relative to some of the other,
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Um, why do you think you guys were able to win decisively Jay and, you know, the sort of
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Was there something unique about the campaign in Ohio?
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And, um, I think what you're seeing right now are, um, pundits.
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One is whatever you see on TV or whatever you see by a columnist, uh, it's almost always
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They, they, they're, they're almost uniformly wrong about what happens in the country.
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Um, and I also think that you, and one of the things I'd love to touch on is, uh,
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is the state of public polling, uh, in this, in the country.
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Um, but what, one of the things that I'm looking at here, and it's going to take me some time
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to do a real post-mortem nationally, because as you know, as we're recording this, you know,
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Uh, Republicans are in a bad spot, but it's still possible that Republicans get the majority.
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So we don't really know exactly what happened, but certainly they didn't, but Republicans
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didn't come out of the numbers that we thought they would, or they, or independents didn't
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vote Republican as they, as we thought they would.
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Um, here in Ohio, one of the things that I think that's the takeaway is JD ran a primary
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He was certainly a Republican and he was very much on these issues that the Republican base
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And we didn't really change him for the general.
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The order in which we delivered a message might change, but it wasn't like we went and
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scrubbed his website and changed his positions as other candidates may have done.
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Um, we wanted to make sure that he was who he was and he talked about the things he cared
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about because at the end of the day, the candidates got to drive a message.
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And one of the things I do think that, um, consultants try to do is they don't really respect voters.
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I think they sometimes don't really, um, believe that they're very smart.
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And my sense is that voters sniff out, um, people that are inauthentic, people that don't,
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aren't talking about things that they really believe in and they will push back against
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And I think that was a case that that was actually what happened here in the state.
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Um, our can't, our opponent, uh, really took positions on TV that were counter to his 20 year
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And our goal as a campaign was to make sure that we told the truth and shine the light,
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Um, and we really focused on his record the whole time.
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It was really about his record and the words that he used, um, and, and the, on the multiple
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And, uh, at the same time, we wanted to make sure that JD was as authentic a voice as possible.
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And I, and I think that was the recipe to, uh, the recipe to our success here.
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So Jay, as I'm hearing you talk about, you know, how much money goes into these campaigns
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and how much of it is spent on media, I think a lot of people would assume that having a
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candidate who's really good on television is key to winning.
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And certainly I would imagine that's important, but then you look at Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania
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and, you know, him losing to a guy who clearly did not come across well on television during
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And I think it backs up your point that, you know, there is some substance here.
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Voters are thinking, you know, you do have to respect them.
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There's gotta be some balance between, you know, good presentation on television, but
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also making sure people feel like you are being honest.
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Is that kind of a bit of a, uh, almost like a, a check and balance on the money that you
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can't really, despite the fact that you can raise a lot of money, you still gotta be able
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to connect with voters and give them something they're excited about.
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Well, look, you have to have enough money to, we were outspent in this general election
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Now, part of that is the demographics Ohio shifted, but, but, uh, I think a big chunk
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of it is that we were able to show, uh, voters who JD Vance really was and, and, and really
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are on the counter case to that for our opponent.
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He, he's, um, he was great on the debates, but there are candidates all over the place that
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are really poor in that medium, uh, that get elected.
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So there are other ways to, to cut, uh, to, you know, to cut that diamond.
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Um, and, but this was certainly, certainly an advantage in our race.
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What you're, when you're, what you're talking about in Pennsylvania is absolutely right.
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Pennsylvania is getting a tough, is a very purple state, but it's leaning Democrat in
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Um, you may have had two of the most, uh, flawed candidates in the history of America running
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Um, but Dr. Oz, I don't know that people believe what he was selling.
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I haven't really looked into it, but I, I was, it's a neighboring state to Ohio as, as some
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So we share a lot of, uh, cultural issues, especially on the Western side of Pennsylvania.
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So I kind of have some kind of sense of it and, and it, it does feel like it wasn't a
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I think you've got to be true to who you got to really believe in what you want.
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And I know like on the abortion issue here, um, with Dr. Oz, I think he switched the position.
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And when you switch positions, voters want to know, did you really have a change of heart
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or is that something you're taking for political reasons?
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And, um, I, and, and they suss this stuff out there.
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Again, I really think voters are much smarter and they've got better instincts than people
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give them credit for the, but the reality is they don't pay attention to this.
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And so they're going to pay attention to it when they want to.
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And our job as political professionals is to communicate with them in a way, uh, that
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we can make sure that they understand what our message is, but also in the right timing
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Well, I, I would say I'm a bit surprised you made it this long into our conversation.
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without mentioning Donald Trump, but I think it's probably time to, uh, to, to ask you
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about him because, you know, you look at the performance of Dr. Oz and I think some people
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are saying, well, that's evidence of, uh, you know, Trump picking the wrong candidates,
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Trump deserves some of the blame for, you know, uh, Republicans not being as successful
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But then you, you know, look at your election where he backed JD and JD did win and JD was successful.
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So do you think it's fair for people who are saying that this is evidence that Trump is
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not having a positive influence on the Republican party?
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So look, I, I, everyone knows, I mean, from, if people know my background, I, I've never been
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a Trump Republican, but I understand his appeal.
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I understand what he has done and he has significantly changed, uh, the Republican party and the country
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Um, and he's really tapped into something, uh, in, in this populist vein, trying to get
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at, uh, the failure of big institutions, how they've left, um, you know, middle-class and
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One of the observations I'll make, and I, and I think I, I talked about this right at the
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top of the show is there are a lot of pundits that are, uh, claiming that they understand
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what happened last Tuesday, they have not one clue and they have a bunch of hot takes.
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That is something that I am convinced of the, the, the media class, the pundit class here
00:16:08.780
in America and, and, and people go on your shows too, in Canada talking about, I did it
00:16:17.140
They are, they really just paid observers and they don't know what they're talking about.
00:16:21.880
Um, I think that Donald Trump did not have a great night in terms of the people that he
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JD was the, uh, probably the one bright spot in, in the country.
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Um, but there's a, there's a bigger thing here and that, and that's the issues that
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Um, if you look at a place like Florida where you have governor Ron DeSantis, who many people
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say that he's going to be, uh, you know, Donald Trump's big rival for the presidency in this
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And it's certainly possible, but what did he run on?
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He really did not run away from the culture wars.
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He really ran, um, ran on, um, you know, anti-masking.
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He ran on a lot of things that the new right that Donald Trump has ushered in, uh, believes
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I think it was 19 points, maybe 20 points that he won in Florida, which is a state that
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is, um, has been considered one of those, um, you know, uh, purple states for a long time.
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Uh, so there, there are examples like that where people ran into those issues.
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Um, I, I do think there's one thing to think through though.
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So Donald Trump, uh, for, uh, for as good as he was identifying the issues, um, a lot of
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his campaigns were run with, uh, you know, with less than professional manner and they
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Um, but they also, a lot of those people that he, uh, the, the political operatives that
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came out of that, um, historic victory that he had in 2016 aren't really very good at what
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And I think the marketplace here in America has been flooded with people that aren't
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really good at it and haven't had to win tough elections.
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Um, so I think that might be something that you're seeing in some of these races where they're
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not as professional races as, um, others might be.
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I think the team that you put together matters.
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I think, uh, the messages and the way in which you deliver them to voters matters in elections.
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Um, and you can't just ride these, uh, these national waves, but it really is unfortunate
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because Republicans had a big opportunity to have a huge election on Tuesday night.
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And even if we are able to take the, uh, the house and the Senate, which at least the house,
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I think we will, but even if we were, we, we take them both, I think clearly we, um, left
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You mentioned, uh, governor Ron DeSantis in Florida and immediately what I saw on Twitter
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I get that, um, was a lot of conservative commentators sort of gravitating to the narrative
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that the power has shifted and that it is now sort of in favor of Ron DeSantis, that
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He can challenge Trump and perhaps defeat Trump for, uh, the opportunity to run for president
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Do you think that Trump has lost momentum and that Ron DeSantis has picked it up?
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Yeah, I don't know that it's like that binary thing.
00:19:10.920
So I think, um, there's, there's a couple of things I would look at here.
00:19:14.140
So again, I think Trump had a very mixed night.
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I think, uh, it was not as good, but I don't, I would not write him off yet.
00:19:19.660
Um, he, if you look at what happened on two, on Tuesday, you're talking about a general
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elected, a general election electorate, which is a much bigger pool of people.
00:19:30.880
Um, but the folks that will run, that will vote in a Republican primary in these primaries
00:19:36.220
across the country and, and your, uh, listeners will know, you know, first you go to Iowa, then
00:19:40.940
you go to New Hampshire, then you go to South Carolina, then you go to a whole bunch of other
00:19:44.360
And those voters are very, um, they're, they're a very different class.
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Those are people that actually just go to every election and they're very partisan.
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Um, amongst that group of people around the nation, Donald Trump is still got the gold
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Um, and if you're going to go to try to try to defeat him, it's going to take a lot more
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than just having Trump have a, uh, you know, uh, um, um, subpar night on election night.
00:20:10.640
Uh, because I still think that if you, if you're trying to kill the King, you better go
00:20:18.660
Um, I think if Trump decides to run again, I think he will be the prohibitive favorite.
00:20:22.880
Um, and I think it will take a, a very seasoned and, um, uh, a very seasoned campaign to, to
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We'll be back with more full comment in just a moment.
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I'm wondering if you could talk to us, Jay, a bit about the internal dynamics within the
00:20:42.080
Cause I think to your point, a lot of people in media, a lot of the commentators like to
00:20:46.960
make things very dramatic, you know, that there's like warring parties within the Republican
00:20:53.160
But then you look at some of these things and you see, you know, I was reading in the
00:20:56.660
wall street journal that, uh, Mitch McConnell's Senate leadership fund invested, you know,
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They say that it was 77% of all of the media spending in the Ohio race since mid August.
00:21:12.280
And so what you, what I think we saw in Ohio, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, is both,
00:21:17.900
you know, uh, Mitch McConnell's super PAC and Donald Trump, both backing JD Vance and showing
00:21:24.880
that there is perhaps not, you know, these like clear divisions between different elements
00:21:31.140
And maybe that might be how, you know, success is actually achieved.
00:21:36.160
Is it, is there more unity than, than maybe people see from the outside?
00:21:40.380
Well, look, I, there are definitely people when you, when you talk about a two party system,
00:21:44.820
um, and everyone's vying for power, they've, they've also got their own little visions of,
00:21:52.480
There is, there are absolutely people that are always jockeying for these different positions,
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whether it's who is the current leader of the party, who is the, uh, intellectual leader
00:22:01.720
of the party, uh, who are the different leaders of the committees.
00:22:07.080
Uh, but you, you point out a very smart thing here in Ohio.
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We had support from Mitch McConnell and his team.
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We had support from Donald Trump and his team because he formed a super PAC, uh, uh, full
00:22:17.980
of his old advisors and, and they spent some money on our behalf as well.
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There was help from a lot of folks because they knew Ohio was an important state and
00:22:25.920
they knew that JD was a candidate that, uh, could carry, it could, could translate a lot
00:22:33.360
So I, I do think that there can be times that there's unity.
00:22:36.020
And I think broadly speaking, we want the same things, but, uh, there are certain, there
00:22:40.660
are certain divisions in the party and look, the Democrats have them too.
00:22:47.960
And I, I don't, I don't think that there's anything different about this, this period
00:22:53.360
I do want to ask you about the Democrats as well, but just one last question on this unity
00:22:57.220
thing, because, uh, Ben Shapiro, um, over at the daily wire, he had a, a Twitter thread
00:23:06.020
And one of the things he says is that the Republican leadership class has been paralyzed by the Trump
00:23:12.420
phenomenon and has failed to provide any leadership.
00:23:16.040
And that's how he explained some of the, um, underwhelming results in the midterms.
00:23:21.620
Do you think there's anything to that, that sort of, because of how powerful and influential
00:23:26.640
Trump is, maybe some of the people who are supposed to be articulating a bigger vision
00:23:31.940
of conservative politics for America sort of have their foot off the gas right now.
00:23:37.200
So, you know, the way I interpret that and, and maybe I'm wrong about it, but you know,
00:23:42.540
in 1994, when Republicans, uh, took the house of representatives, uh, for the first time in
00:23:48.740
decades, it, uh, Newt Gingrich was the speaker of the house.
00:23:52.100
And what they did is some of your listeners will remember there was this thing called the
00:23:56.320
And there was this platform where Republicans around the country could unite behind a positive
00:24:02.180
agenda of things that they were going to do for the country.
00:24:05.260
That's something that I don't think we've really done as a party for a long time.
00:24:09.400
We were very good at knocking down the big institutions and we're very good about saying
00:24:17.360
How, what is our, uh, our, our policy agenda going to be that people can, you know, like really
00:24:22.500
grab onto and understand, um, and before now there's always danger politically doing that
00:24:27.920
kind of thing, because then once you put something out there, the opponents can spend millions,
00:24:31.840
uh, attacking it and, and saying that, you know, you're not for, uh, voters and you're
00:24:36.980
not for, uh, uh, different types of constituencies.
00:24:40.840
So I, I recognize that, but there are serious positives to having something like that too.
00:24:47.360
It's, it's a vision that people can then get behind and say, boy, you really are for
00:24:51.860
And if it's crafted the right way, I think we can do it.
00:24:54.220
And I think that's, I think that's one of those things that I think we should be thinking
00:24:58.600
It will be very difficult when we're in a presidential because whoever is our standard
00:25:02.480
bearer will, will hold the bully pulpit, will, you know, control the media narrative, but
00:25:06.840
certainly for the next midterm election, I think those are opportunities for us to think
00:25:11.300
One of the glaring opportunities for growth for Republicans, uh, that seems to stand out now
00:25:18.260
at every election is just making even moderate inroads into black and Hispanic, uh, communities.
00:25:25.720
It was part of the narrative going into the midterms that, you know, because of dissatisfaction
00:25:30.820
with Democrats, Republicans could pick up significant support among black and Hispanic men from the
00:25:37.920
So far, it looks like there was a percentage increase with those groups, but not enough to
00:25:46.240
And I, I looked at that and I thought, you know, I do think there's a difference between
00:25:51.000
people being disaffected by the democratic party and saying, I don't like the Democrats
00:25:59.160
And I think Republicans have maybe, um, underestimated how many people would rather just not vote, um,
00:26:07.980
Um, do you think that there's anything that can be learned from the midterms in terms of how
00:26:13.160
Republicans can actually increase their support among black and Hispanic voters?
00:26:18.920
Yeah, that's a very interesting point that you make.
00:26:21.080
And, and, but the one thing I would say is I would caution you on the exit polls, uh, because
00:26:25.440
they are, have been notoriously, you know, all over the place and wrong.
00:26:28.860
And I think we'll have a better sense of this in the days and months to come.
00:26:33.060
But, uh, but certainly if you want to just take that, that slice there too, and I, and I have
00:26:37.180
not seen that evidence yet, uh, because I do know that there were some Republicans that
00:26:41.260
were very bullish on the, uh, but the minority vote coming their way this election, but I'm
00:26:45.840
a little bit less, um, inclined to saying that that's the case.
00:26:50.080
Um, I, I think it's much harder to, especially when you're talking, talking about the African
00:26:55.860
I, I, I've been part of campaigns where we've gotten up to, um, you know, 18, 20% of the African
00:27:02.300
Uh, but it was when we directly engaged them on the issues that they cared about, um, that
00:27:09.260
And at that point, you're able to break some folks off.
00:27:12.580
Now, crime certainly is a huge issue and it, and it affects black Americans, uh, disproportionately,
00:27:21.660
And I think that that is something that Republicans were thinking that would just translate into
00:27:28.780
Um, but I do think that there are more, there's more work to be done where we're actually engaging
00:27:35.500
them in their communities than the evidence that I've seen that we've actually done, uh,
00:27:39.460
in the future, if that's something that we're really interested in doing as a party.
00:27:42.740
Um, I think as, you know, in terms of the Hispanics, so like in Ohio, we've got a very low Hispanic
00:27:48.600
So it's not something that, um, I've got a lot of experience in here, uh, in recent times,
00:27:54.500
uh, just in the last couple of election cycles, but, um, nationally, certainly it's a very
00:28:01.440
And once you get further down and there are more generations of Hispanics coming into it,
00:28:06.520
I do think that more of them will become, uh, will be willing to vote Republican.
00:28:10.980
So I think that's a natural thing that's going to happen.
00:28:13.280
But, uh, I think, I, I hope we don't take it for granted just because Democrats fail them.
00:28:18.940
Um, and I think Democrats have failed them in this country, they're not going to necessarily
00:28:23.120
turn to us until, unless we actually have a, um, uh, an agenda that they can say, boy,
00:28:28.480
you're really thinking about what we, what we care about.
00:28:31.560
And I think one of the interesting dynamics as, um, you know, the United States heads towards
00:28:37.080
the 2024 election is what happens with Joe Biden, because I think most people probably assumed
00:28:45.520
heading into the midterms that Joe Biden would not be running for president in 2024, but after
00:28:52.580
the results, now it seems to be a much more positive narrative around Joe Biden that perhaps
00:28:57.900
he's necessary in order to be more competitive.
00:29:01.340
I wonder if one, do you agree, uh, that this is, was a good result for Joe Biden?
00:29:06.620
And two, do you think this might create the conditions for a longer period of time to make
00:29:12.340
that pitch to black voters and Hispanic voters?
00:29:16.160
If Joe Biden and the status quo is going to continue, that maybe now there's a, it will
00:29:20.840
be easier to make the sell that if you want something different, if you want some kind
00:29:24.680
of change, you are going to need to consider the Republican option.
00:29:32.900
I think first of all, yes, of course, this was a good night for him.
00:29:36.140
Um, he's still wildly unpopular, but his party did a lot better than expectations.
00:29:40.620
So there's, there are good things, but there's a very dangerous, uh, a part of this too.
00:29:44.860
Um, this White House and Joe Biden has also said that he's not going to do anything different.
00:29:51.360
Um, if the lessons that they learn from this or that their policies are what America needs,
00:30:00.960
And they will, in my opinion, lose a reelection, uh, by great margins because these policies
00:30:08.120
have, have, have gotten lots of American suffering.
00:30:14.920
We may have had individual candidates that couldn't speak to it and couldn't take advantage
00:30:19.120
But I assure you that the next, um, the nominee from our party will, and, uh, that'll be a
00:30:27.340
Um, and, uh, let me also say this too, before we talk about, uh, continuing Black Americans,
00:30:32.140
you know, the U.S. Senate map, whether we take the Senate or not this year, when, when
00:30:36.380
all is said and done, it is much more favorable to Republicans.
00:30:39.520
There are going to be a lot more Democrat seats up that, than this map was.
00:30:43.500
So it is highly likely that Republicans take the Senate the next time, uh, next, in two
00:30:48.620
So there's, that's also got to be in the backdrop of all this.
00:30:52.280
Um, is there an opportunity for us to communicate with Black Americans and minorities in general?
00:30:57.040
Of course there is, but that's going to largely depend on the next presidential candidate because
00:31:02.880
they're going to be the ones, uh, that campaign is largely going to be the one that has to do
00:31:07.560
Um, and there's got to be concerted effort to doing it.
00:31:11.040
Um, and, but short of that, I think it's largely going to be the same kind of percentage, uh,
00:31:16.720
maybe a uptick here and there, but it's not going to be something that is like, uh, decisive
00:31:23.460
You know, earlier, Jay, you mentioned polling and I do want to spend some time on that because
00:31:27.880
most people listening, uh, to our conversation right now probably have never been asked their
00:31:35.900
And I think a lot of people experience polling just in terms of, you know, as we read newspapers,
00:31:40.440
listen to podcasts as this thing that's being done out there somewhere, but we don't really,
00:31:50.520
You have websites like real clear politics who I think are trying to bring more accountability
00:31:56.240
and structure to polling to make sure there's more integrity to the numbers that people receive.
00:32:02.360
But I wondered from a campaign's perspective, how do you interpret polling, you know, two
00:32:08.160
months ago, one month ago, one week ago, when you guys are deciding how to, you know, use
00:32:12.920
your resources, how to win this election, do, what do polls mean to you?
00:32:18.160
So this is, this is an issue that I'm actually super passionate about.
00:32:21.480
I actually wrote a piece for the Daily Caller about this a couple of years ago because public
00:32:25.880
There's public polling and then there's private polling.
00:32:27.260
And I think public polling is an absolute disaster in America.
00:32:33.740
I think the way in which the media looks at polling is dishonest and hurts the American
00:32:39.980
people because they don't really understand it.
00:32:42.500
And they concentrate, concentrate on the horse race of who's up and who's down.
00:32:45.980
And that is not the way I use me who does politics for a living.
00:32:51.860
I think it's been very difficult to, you know, historically to understand, to get Trump
00:33:02.580
Certainly this time they overestimated Republicans in their polling and we'll figure out why.
00:33:09.200
But at the end of the day, what I do know is these folks don't know what they're doing.
00:33:12.380
Now there's, before I go into, you know, our private polls and how we do it, you know, Monmouth
00:33:16.640
University, which used to conduct this big public poll of who's winning, who's not in the
00:33:22.920
And I really applaud the decision to not do horse race polling anymore.
00:33:26.360
I think that does it, again, I think it does a disservice to people.
00:33:29.580
What they do is they track the moods, the issues that people care about.
00:33:33.780
And so you can kind of get a sense of where things are going, but they're not saying who's
00:33:36.980
up, who's down, because I'm going to tell you, these guys are almost always wrong.
00:33:41.880
And if they're right, they're lucky because they don't know what they're doing anymore.
00:33:46.260
And polling has been broken for about 10, 12 years.
00:33:48.280
Now, in the private side, you know, when we hire a pollster, look, a lot of these guys
00:33:54.460
I know a lot of Republican pollsters that have not gotten an election right in, you know,
00:34:03.360
And I happen to think that the pollster that I, that we use, Tony Fabrizio, who is Donald
00:34:06.980
Trump's pollster, too, is one of the best in the business.
00:34:11.980
But with the way in which we use it is, sure, we get a ballot number.
00:34:15.680
Or we know, OK, your candidate's up or your candidate's down.
00:34:20.700
Or if it's something I look at, it's not something I pay much attention to for most of the election
00:34:24.800
What we do is we look at the issues that are most important.
00:34:29.960
We look at what messages that they care about, what issues they care about.
00:34:33.680
And we put a strategy in place and a messaging strategy, a grassroots strategy based around
00:34:39.140
those numbers, is how do we move numbers towards us?
00:34:42.560
And we also have these, and beyond polling, we also use data analytics as well, too, to
00:34:48.420
build models of the electorate so that we kind of know where things are.
00:34:51.400
And when you use the combination of those two things, you can put together a very effective
00:34:58.740
Look, for my election here in Ohio, I predicted we were going to get 53% or 54%.
00:35:10.640
But that's because the folks that we had do a good job on it.
00:35:13.840
And we built a plan to get to where we needed to go.
00:35:16.900
So there was a heck of a lot of irrational exuberance around the country, in my state,
00:35:25.760
And I don't really see why they had those beliefs, but it's largely because these public
00:35:35.040
So I hope that answers the question, because we do use it very differently than the media
00:35:40.940
I wish the media would educate themselves on this, but I don't hold any hope there, because
00:35:46.560
So someone like Donald Trump would say that these public polls are skewed for a reason,
00:35:54.340
that it's intentionally, I mean, he's basically said it's a type of voter suppression.
00:35:59.300
It's meant to influence whether people think it's possible for Republicans to win, so that
00:36:07.860
Do you think there's reason to believe that there's some intention behind this?
00:36:11.540
Or is it just a matter of wanting to get clicks?
00:36:18.420
I think that they're just incompetent, for the most part.
00:36:26.560
I know that the media outlets love talking about polls, because people love the horse race.
00:36:32.120
I think, look, there's certainly some partisan polls that are there to either raise money
00:36:36.820
for their candidates or to suppress votes, whatever.
00:36:39.060
But largely, these university-driven polls, these big news organization polls, I don't think
00:36:48.160
And I wish they would stop, because I think it's very hurtful to voters.
00:36:53.840
Are you optimistic that the RealClearPolitics accountability effort or some of these other
00:37:07.560
But I try not to look at the horse race numbers, the ballot numbers.
00:37:10.960
No, the reason I'm not is because, again, as an industry, I think they've lost their way.
00:37:17.660
And so I'm very pessimistic on all these other things.
00:37:25.080
If you're a campaign, I think that there's a lot of value to it, especially if you find
00:37:28.800
a pollster that actually understands how to do it.
00:37:30.800
But I am very, very pessimistic on the public polls out there.
00:37:35.480
So what advice would you have for sort of the average person who doesn't have access
00:37:42.020
Should they put any stock into the public polls?
00:37:44.540
Are there certain polling outlets that are more reliable than others?
00:37:50.420
So, yeah, there's all these people that give grades.
00:37:52.540
And remember, the grades are based on the last polls before the election.
00:38:01.120
I do think that there is some stuff that they gamed to make it look like what they think
00:38:07.080
But what I'll say, look, if you're an average person and you actually care about this stuff,
00:38:11.500
don't look at the ballot number, especially early in the election cycle, because things
00:38:16.900
Look, my job as a strategist is to change polling numbers, always.
00:38:22.400
Even if we're up by 20, I'm going to try to get to up by 30.
00:38:25.560
If we're down by 20, I'm going to try to win by two or three.
00:38:32.280
And look, pundits will always look at these polls, especially early in the cycle, and
00:38:35.340
say, oh my goodness, this candidate has no chance to win.
00:38:40.200
But they have not allowed the campaign to be run.
00:38:43.780
So if you're just someone that is interested in politics and wants to look at this thing,
00:38:49.000
certainly look at polls, but look at them in the cross tabs.
00:38:57.440
And then as the same outfits continues to poll, look at the trends.
00:39:03.080
If you start to understand those kinds of things, you'll have a better sense of where
00:39:05.760
the electorate is, even if you don't know what the mix is.
00:39:09.960
And look, one thing that's really interesting about polls, people think that they're very
00:39:16.520
Certainly there's science behind them, but it's really about the inputs.
00:39:19.720
It's how you determine what questions to ask, how you ask those questions, but also what
00:39:28.720
And those inputs really have a huge influence on what the final output is going to be.
00:39:34.000
So you've got to really look at those things, too.
00:39:37.200
And it's a very hard thing for a regular person to do.
00:39:41.680
But still, you're going to get a basic sense of trend lines of where things are and where
00:39:48.500
But you will not know what the final number is.
00:39:50.240
Well, it sounds like there's a business opportunity there for anyone who can put together a reliable
00:40:00.820
Well, lastly here, Jay, the expectation is that at some point in the coming days, Donald
00:40:07.340
Trump is going to announce his intention to run for president in 2024.
00:40:11.960
I'm just wondering if you can give us your thoughts on what to expect in the next 12,
00:40:19.500
You're not going to get a satisfying answer from me on this one, because if you're asking
00:40:22.740
me to predict what Donald Trump's going to do or what the aftermath is going to be, I
00:40:26.980
I don't know that there is a person that can do that.
00:40:31.440
I watch along and I, you know, I pass the popcorn.
00:40:37.280
Well, certainly with with the likelihood of Trump coming back, we are not going to be longing
00:40:42.640
for interesting news in the world of American politics.
00:40:46.260
He keeps things he keeps things unpredictable at minimum.
00:40:55.120
And I asked one of the producers, why do you guys care so much about what happens, you
00:41:00.520
And the producer said to me, well, we just want to see what happens next season on America.
00:41:05.460
And I've always remembered that is as you guys consume the media that we have down here,
00:41:10.480
because I'm sure it is just something it's like a reality show for for for you guys up
00:41:17.580
Well, as long as we don't have to have people suffering negative consequences, which is
00:41:22.980
That's the difference between the reality show that is Donald Trump versus the reality show
00:41:27.520
that is Kim Kardashian, actual human lives at stake.
00:41:33.420
But, but Jay, really appreciate you joining us to talk about the midterms and congratulations
00:41:40.820
I think you guys pulled something special off there, as you mentioned, with JD being the
00:41:45.140
first person to be elected to the Senate from Ohio without serving in political office.
00:41:50.680
And, you know, he's a young guy in his late 30s.
00:41:52.680
I mean, there's there's a lot of remarkable things about that story.
00:42:00.280
He's a remarkable candidate and he's got a bright future.
00:42:10.760
This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.
00:42:18.420
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00:42:25.080
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00:42:55.080
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00:43:18.520
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