Full Comment - Why Trump’s ‘new right’ politics are still a force

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00:01:12.740 Welcome to the latest edition of Full Comment.

00:01:22.520 I'm guest host, Jamil Javani.

00:01:25.260 The U.S. midterms were widely expected to be a red wave, even in some places called a

00:01:31.460 red tsunami, with the Republican Party picking up big-time seat counts in the Congress and

00:01:39.060 in Senate.

00:01:39.840 That is not how it played out, however, and many political advisors, observers, are now

00:01:46.220 trying to figure out what exactly happened with the U.S. midterms and what the takeaways

00:01:51.360 should be as the U.S. political machines start to gear toward 2024 and the coming presidential

00:01:59.020 election.

00:02:00.020 Many questions are left to be asked concerning the influence of former U.S. President Donald

00:02:06.000 Trump, as well as what can be learned from the record amount of money spent in these elections

00:02:12.680 across the United States, a total of $16.7 billion spent in state and federal races, breaking

00:02:21.420 the previous record of $13.7 billion.

00:02:24.820 What are the takeaways from this and what can we expect next in the United States?

00:02:30.020 We are joined by the Managing Director of MAD Global Strategy.

00:02:35.580 He's a Republican strategist and the chief advisor to J.D. Vance's successful Senate campaign

00:02:42.560 in Ohio, Jay Chabria.

00:02:45.400 Jay, welcome to Full Comment.

00:02:47.060 Hi, Jamil.

00:02:47.580 Thanks for having me on.

00:02:48.940 Thanks for joining us, Jay.

00:02:50.340 Now, there's a lot of big questions for us to tackle together here concerning Donald Trump,

00:02:55.540 the Republican Party, the Democrat Party, what the takeaways are from the U.S. midterms.

00:03:00.120 But I want to start with what your life has been like over the last several months, working

00:03:05.380 on what was one of the hottest contested U.S. Senate campaigns in the country, in Ohio.

00:03:13.040 J.D. Vance, who, full disclosure, is a good friend of mine, was successful in winning the

00:03:19.220 Senate seat in Ohio.

00:03:20.320 Many people expected it to be competitive, but he certainly pulled away in the final vote

00:03:26.160 counts, winning by a significant margin.

00:03:29.120 But you've been at this from not just this general election, but also working on the primary

00:03:34.500 earlier this year and late last year as well.

00:03:37.920 What has the last year been like for you?

00:03:39.880 What is it like to work on one of these campaigns that are receiving so much national and international

00:03:45.100 attention?

00:03:45.700 Sure, sure.

00:03:46.820 But before I go into that, when you did your intro and you talked about how many billions

00:03:50.320 were spent in the U.S., I spit out my coffee.

00:03:54.120 I'm just stunned by that number.

00:03:55.800 Boy, it is big business here.

00:03:57.340 And I'm sure we can talk about that later.

00:03:59.680 But going into this last – so it's actually been 19 months since the incumbent senator,

00:04:06.640 Rob Portman, here in Ohio, announced that he was not going to run and J.D. started

00:04:10.940 to think about it, you know, J.D.'s an interesting guy.

00:04:15.980 So I'll say this before we go into what happened last year.

00:04:19.780 He was the first Ohioan to ever be elected to the Senate without ever having run for any

00:04:25.700 office before.

00:04:26.720 So this is not something that actually has ever happened.

00:04:29.840 It's a historic election from that perspective.

00:04:32.280 So that kind of thing actually presents its own challenges and opportunities too.

00:04:36.320 You know, when J.D. first started to decide to do this, we had to build a structure from

00:04:41.560 scratch because of it.

00:04:44.480 When you put a major campaign together, usually you have someone that's run for office before,

00:04:51.020 someone that's got some inroads, and he basically had none of that.

00:04:55.700 So we were able to build something from scratch.

00:04:57.820 And the good thing about that is you can actually build it the right way and you don't have the

00:05:02.580 baggage of, you know, past failures, but there's also a challenge to scalability.

00:05:08.140 And I think because of that, he was a severe underdog, even though folks, you know, in

00:05:13.440 conservative media, folks maybe that are very high information voters knew who he was.

00:05:18.600 The electorate didn't know who he was, and certainly the political establishment was

00:05:22.940 completely against him.

00:05:24.320 So I live here in Columbus, Ohio, which is the capital of the state.

00:05:27.780 And, you know, I'm probably known as a very establishment Republican, and there's a lot

00:05:34.720 of lobbyists and a lot of political operatives that live around me and work around me.

00:05:40.340 And I'm going to tell you, the amount of people that thought that J.D. would be the next

00:05:44.080 senator, I could count on one hand when we first started the process.

00:05:47.880 So that's something you have to overcome, and that took a long time.

00:05:50.880 Um, I'll say, you know, my life, when you talk about me personally, I mean, you know,

00:05:55.780 I like to work hard no matter what.

00:05:57.660 So I don't know that that changed so much, but certainly the focus and what we were trying

00:06:02.420 to do was, was, uh, took up a large part of it.

00:06:06.340 Uh, you know, you have to build a strategy that is unique to J.D.'s, uh, strengths and

00:06:10.840 his weaknesses.

00:06:11.320 You have to build a team that's unique to strengths and weaknesses.

00:06:13.820 And that's what I think we were able to do.

00:06:15.600 And I'll give him a lot of credit for someone that's never done something like this.

00:06:19.400 He learned very quickly.

00:06:20.400 He took advice.

00:06:21.940 He, uh, has great instincts.

00:06:24.180 Um, and we were able to do it.

00:06:25.880 We were able to scale it up.

00:06:26.720 And we had a very contentious primary, as you alluded to.

00:06:28.760 And if you want to talk about that, we can, because that was, uh, a primary where there

00:06:32.580 was probably, uh, north of $90 million spent, um, in it, uh, here in Ohio, which, uh, was

00:06:40.280 absolutely insane.

00:06:41.240 And we came into it, uh, in a general election where we had a Democrat candidate who, uh, was

00:06:49.360 pretending to be a moderate who spent 40 or $50 million and a lot of that against us too.

00:06:55.220 So those are its own challenges too.

00:06:58.640 When you, you know, talk about the amount of money that goes into these American elections,

00:07:03.780 Jay, just for perspective, like, you know, Canadian election laws are very different.

00:07:09.540 And so we're spending a small fraction in a national race as what gets spent in a midterm,

00:07:15.500 um, election in the U S I mean, it's just such a big difference in scale.

00:07:20.540 Can you just speak a bit to that?

00:07:22.340 Like, what is it like doing politics with that much money?

00:07:25.400 What does that money get spent on?

00:07:27.280 How does it affect the decisions that you guys make?

00:07:30.120 Sure.

00:07:30.280 And, and, you know, I've been doing this now for 26 years.

00:07:33.240 Um, and I remember when, uh, so what, what you're talking about is something that I still

00:07:38.920 have to wrap my head around because the money is scaled up so much.

00:07:41.980 I remember when George W.

00:07:44.060 Bush first started running and I was on a campaign that was against him in a primary and, uh, we

00:07:48.180 didn't go very far, but, um, we were, you know, our goal was to raise $8 million for

00:07:52.980 that primary or eight or $9 million.

00:07:55.380 And George W.

00:07:56.420 Bush came in, I think the number was like 18 million and this is a presidential primary.

00:08:00.160 And we were like aghast that he had this much money and it was, it was just a jaw dropping

00:08:05.760 amount, uh, amount.

00:08:06.780 And that wasn't when you look at it that long ago.

00:08:09.800 Um, and now, you know, if it's like 18 million, $20 million in ante for a U S Senate primary

00:08:16.120 in, uh, you know, uh, a fairly large state like Ohio, but it is just amazing.

00:08:20.780 So what does the money get spent on?

00:08:22.140 Look, it's largely paid media.

00:08:25.240 Certainly there are consultants and, uh, there are, there's polling and there's other things

00:08:29.600 that you, but it is almost exclusively all that money goes to put money on TV and obviously

00:08:35.760 digital advertising.

00:08:36.960 That is where the bulk of it is.

00:08:38.980 Um, there are other campaigns that will spend some different proportions in terms of what that

00:08:42.860 is, but that is, that is what drives it.

00:08:44.620 So if we go back to the Ohio race, which again, you know, JD Vance, uh, won as a Republican,

00:08:51.800 uh, by a sizable margin of the vote, uh, declared fairly early on relative to some of the other,

00:08:58.500 you know, hotly contested States, certainly.

00:09:01.380 Um, why do you think you guys were able to win decisively Jay and, you know, the sort of

00:09:07.700 red wave or the red tsunami didn't happen?

00:09:10.180 Was there something unique about the campaign in Ohio?

00:09:12.800 Well, there certainly were unique things.

00:09:15.120 And, um, I think what you're seeing right now are, um, pundits.

00:09:18.880 So, so I've learned a couple of lessons.

00:09:20.020 One is whatever you see on TV or whatever you see by a columnist, uh, it's almost always

00:09:24.940 going to be wrong.

00:09:25.960 They've been wrong on our race.

00:09:27.360 They, they, they're, they're almost uniformly wrong about what happens in the country.

00:09:30.640 Um, and I also think that you, and one of the things I'd love to touch on is, uh,

00:09:34.080 is the state of public polling, uh, in this, in the country.

00:09:36.960 And I think that is just a disaster.

00:09:39.300 Um, but what, one of the things that I'm looking at here, and it's going to take me some time

00:09:43.780 to do a real post-mortem nationally, because as you know, as we're recording this, you know,

00:09:49.380 the house is still undecided.

00:09:50.840 It looks like Republicans will take it.

00:09:52.480 It's the Senate is very much undecided.

00:09:54.720 Uh, Republicans are in a bad spot, but it's still possible that Republicans get the majority.

00:09:58.600 So we don't really know exactly what happened, but certainly they didn't, but Republicans

00:10:02.460 didn't come out of the numbers that we thought they would, or they, or independents didn't

00:10:05.400 vote Republican as they, as we thought they would.

00:10:08.020 Um, here in Ohio, one of the things that I think that's the takeaway is JD ran a primary

00:10:13.900 campaign and he was certainly a populist.

00:10:16.740 He was certainly a Republican and he was very much on these issues that the Republican base

00:10:21.000 cares about very much.

00:10:22.180 And we didn't really change him for the general.

00:10:25.040 Certainly our language may have changed.

00:10:26.980 The order in which we delivered a message might change, but it wasn't like we went and

00:10:32.360 scrubbed his website and changed his positions as other candidates may have done.

00:10:36.920 Um, we wanted to make sure that he was who he was and he talked about the things he cared

00:10:42.420 about because at the end of the day, the candidates got to drive a message.

00:10:44.980 And one of the things I do think that, um, consultants try to do is they don't really respect voters.

00:10:51.660 I think they sometimes don't really, um, believe that they're very smart.

00:10:56.640 And my sense is that voters sniff out, um, people that are inauthentic, people that don't,

00:11:04.700 aren't talking about things that they really believe in and they will push back against

00:11:08.460 something like that.

00:11:09.160 And I think that was a case that that was actually what happened here in the state.

00:11:12.820 Um, our can't, our opponent, uh, really took positions on TV that were counter to his 20 year

00:11:19.200 voting record.

00:11:20.760 And our goal as a campaign was to make sure that we told the truth and shine the light,

00:11:25.420 show a light on, on his actual record.

00:11:27.540 Um, and we really focused on his record the whole time.

00:11:29.660 It wasn't about any of us personal stuff.

00:11:31.340 It was really about his record and the words that he used, um, and, and the, on the multiple

00:11:35.160 positions he took.

00:11:36.400 And, uh, at the same time, we wanted to make sure that JD was as authentic a voice as possible.

00:11:41.240 And I, and I think that was the recipe to, uh, the recipe to our success here.

00:11:45.220 So Jay, as I'm hearing you talk about, you know, how much money goes into these campaigns

00:11:49.600 and how much of it is spent on media, I think a lot of people would assume that having a

00:11:54.460 candidate who's really good on television is key to winning.

00:11:58.900 And certainly I would imagine that's important, but then you look at Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania

00:12:04.040 and, you know, him losing to a guy who clearly did not come across well on television during

00:12:09.260 their debates.

00:12:10.260 And I think it backs up your point that, you know, there is some substance here.

00:12:15.400 Voters are thinking, you know, you do have to respect them.

00:12:18.640 There's gotta be some balance between, you know, good presentation on television, but

00:12:23.580 also making sure people feel like you are being honest.

00:12:26.800 Is that kind of a bit of a, uh, almost like a, a check and balance on the money that you

00:12:32.860 can't really, despite the fact that you can raise a lot of money, you still gotta be able

00:12:36.360 to connect with voters and give them something they're excited about.

00:12:38.900 Well, look, you have to have enough money to, we were outspent in this general election

00:12:43.100 and we won.

00:12:44.440 Now, part of that is the demographics Ohio shifted, but, but, uh, I think a big chunk

00:12:48.200 of it is that we were able to show, uh, voters who JD Vance really was and, and, and really

00:12:53.120 are on the counter case to that for our opponent.

00:12:56.020 Um, so I think what you're saying is correct.

00:12:57.900 Look, JD's excellent TV.

00:12:59.340 He, he's, um, he was great on the debates, but there are candidates all over the place that

00:13:03.600 are really poor in that medium, uh, that get elected.

00:13:06.840 So there are other ways to, to cut, uh, to, you know, to cut that diamond.

00:13:10.580 Um, and, but this was certainly, certainly an advantage in our race.

00:13:14.720 What you're, when you're, what you're talking about in Pennsylvania is absolutely right.

00:13:19.180 Pennsylvania is getting a tough, is a very purple state, but it's leaning Democrat in

00:13:23.320 a lot of ways.

00:13:23.940 Um, you may have had two of the most, uh, flawed candidates in the history of America running

00:13:29.600 in that general election.

00:13:31.540 Um, but Dr. Oz, I don't know that people believe what he was selling.

00:13:35.840 Uh, I haven't delved into the numbers.

00:13:37.640 I haven't really looked into it, but I, I was, it's a neighboring state to Ohio as, as some

00:13:41.860 of your listeners will know.

00:13:42.880 So we share a lot of, uh, cultural issues, especially on the Western side of Pennsylvania.

00:13:47.140 So I kind of have some kind of sense of it and, and it, it does feel like it wasn't a

00:13:51.740 real presentation.

00:13:52.820 And I think that's a challenge.

00:13:54.100 I think you've got to be true to who you got to really believe in what you want.

00:13:57.120 And I know like on the abortion issue here, um, with Dr. Oz, I think he switched the position.

00:14:03.060 And when you switch positions, voters want to know, did you really have a change of heart

00:14:06.540 or is that something you're taking for political reasons?

00:14:08.960 And, um, I, and, and they suss this stuff out there.

00:14:11.660 Again, I really think voters are much smarter and they've got better instincts than people

00:14:15.160 give them credit for the, but the reality is they don't pay attention to this.

00:14:19.340 Like a lot of us do.

00:14:21.560 And so they're going to pay attention to it when they want to.

00:14:24.060 And our job as political professionals is to communicate with them in a way, uh, that

00:14:28.220 we can make sure that they understand what our message is, but also in the right timing

00:14:32.160 that's, uh, that's appropriate for them.

00:14:34.980 Well, I, I would say I'm a bit surprised you made it this long into our conversation.

00:14:38.960 without mentioning Donald Trump, but I think it's probably time to, uh, to, to ask you

00:14:44.240 about him because, you know, you look at the performance of Dr. Oz and I think some people

00:14:49.140 are saying, well, that's evidence of, uh, you know, Trump picking the wrong candidates,

00:14:54.560 backing the wrong people.

00:14:56.200 Trump deserves some of the blame for, you know, uh, Republicans not being as successful

00:15:00.700 in the midterms as many expected.

00:15:03.200 But then you, you know, look at your election where he backed JD and JD did win and JD was successful.

00:15:08.860 So do you think it's fair for people who are saying that this is evidence that Trump is

00:15:14.840 not having a positive influence on the Republican party?

00:15:18.140 So look, I, I, everyone knows, I mean, from, if people know my background, I, I've never been

00:15:22.960 a Trump Republican, but I understand his appeal.

00:15:25.840 I understand what he has done and he has significantly changed, uh, the Republican party and the country

00:15:32.140 in, in many, many ways.

00:15:34.260 Um, and he's really tapped into something, uh, in, in this populist vein, trying to get

00:15:38.420 at, uh, the failure of big institutions, how they've left, um, you know, middle-class and

00:15:43.940 working-class people, uh, behind. 0.95

00:15:46.080 So he has done all of those things.

00:15:47.760 One of the observations I'll make, and I, and I think I, I talked about this right at the

00:15:51.600 top of the show is there are a lot of pundits that are, uh, claiming that they understand

00:15:57.740 what happened last Tuesday, they have not one clue and they have a bunch of hot takes.

00:16:03.760 That is something that I am convinced of the, the, the media class, the pundit class here

00:16:08.780 in America and, and, and people go on your shows too, in Canada talking about, I did it

00:16:13.380 the other day at the CBC.

00:16:15.100 Most of them have never been on a race.

00:16:17.140 They are, they really just paid observers and they don't know what they're talking about.

00:16:21.880 Um, I think that Donald Trump did not have a great night in terms of the people that he

00:16:26.000 endorsed.

00:16:26.480 That is certain.

00:16:27.020 JD was the, uh, probably the one bright spot in, in the country.

00:16:30.940 Um, but there's a, there's a bigger thing here and that, and that's the issues that

00:16:35.380 he's identified.

00:16:36.460 Um, if you look at a place like Florida where you have governor Ron DeSantis, who many people

00:16:41.200 say that he's going to be, uh, you know, Donald Trump's big rival for the presidency in this

00:16:45.820 next election.

00:16:46.680 And it's certainly possible, but what did he run on?

00:16:49.940 He really did not run away from the culture wars.

00:16:52.300 He really ran, um, ran on, um, you know, anti-masking.

00:16:56.760 Uh, keeping, uh, keeping the schools open.

00:16:58.440 He ran on transgender issues.

00:17:00.100 He ran on a lot of things that the new right that Donald Trump has ushered in, uh, believes

00:17:05.720 in.

00:17:05.940 And he won a decisive victory.

00:17:08.080 I think it was 19 points, maybe 20 points that he won in Florida, which is a state that

00:17:12.180 is, um, has been considered one of those, um, you know, uh, purple states for a long time.

00:17:18.080 Uh, so there, there are examples like that where people ran into those issues.

00:17:23.640 Um, I, I do think there's one thing to think through though.

00:17:26.300 So Donald Trump, uh, for, uh, for as good as he was identifying the issues, um, a lot of

00:17:31.340 his campaigns were run with, uh, you know, with less than professional manner and they

00:17:37.500 happened to win.

00:17:38.100 Um, but they also, a lot of those people that he, uh, the, the political operatives that

00:17:42.820 came out of that, um, historic victory that he had in 2016 aren't really very good at what

00:17:48.680 they do.

00:17:49.120 And I think the marketplace here in America has been flooded with people that aren't

00:17:52.440 really good at it and haven't had to win tough elections.

00:17:54.920 Um, so I think that might be something that you're seeing in some of these races where they're 0.94

00:17:58.640 not as professional races as, um, others might be.

00:18:01.300 Uh, because I do think campaigns matter.

00:18:03.180 I think the team that you put together matters.

00:18:05.240 I think, uh, the messages and the way in which you deliver them to voters matters in elections.

00:18:09.020 Um, and you can't just ride these, uh, these national waves, but it really is unfortunate

00:18:14.380 because Republicans had a big opportunity to have a huge election on Tuesday night.

00:18:19.420 And even if we are able to take the, uh, the house and the Senate, which at least the house,

00:18:24.420 I think we will, but even if we were, we, we take them both, I think clearly we, um, left

00:18:29.460 some offices on the table and that's a shame.

00:18:32.480 You mentioned, uh, governor Ron DeSantis in Florida and immediately what I saw on Twitter

00:18:37.520 and I, of course, Twitter is not real life.

00:18:39.800 I get that, um, was a lot of conservative commentators sort of gravitating to the narrative

00:18:46.820 that the power has shifted and that it is now sort of in favor of Ron DeSantis, that

00:18:53.800 he's got more momentum.

00:18:54.840 He can challenge Trump and perhaps defeat Trump for, uh, the opportunity to run for president

00:19:00.220 in 2024.

00:19:01.620 Do you think that Trump has lost momentum and that Ron DeSantis has picked it up?

00:19:06.060 Where do you think Trump is right now?

00:19:08.340 Yeah, I don't know that it's like that binary thing.

00:19:10.920 So I think, um, there's, there's a couple of things I would look at here.

00:19:14.140 So again, I think Trump had a very mixed night.

00:19:16.140 I think, uh, it was not as good, but I don't, I would not write him off yet.

00:19:19.660 Um, he, if you look at what happened on two, on Tuesday, you're talking about a general

00:19:25.540 elected, a general election electorate, which is a much bigger pool of people.

00:19:30.880 Um, but the folks that will run, that will vote in a Republican primary in these primaries

00:19:36.220 across the country and, and your, uh, listeners will know, you know, first you go to Iowa, then

00:19:40.940 you go to New Hampshire, then you go to South Carolina, then you go to a whole bunch of other

00:19:43.600 states.

00:19:44.360 And those voters are very, um, they're, they're a very different class.

00:19:49.100 Those are people that actually just go to every election and they're very partisan.

00:19:52.860 Um, amongst that group of people around the nation, Donald Trump is still got the gold

00:20:00.000 standard and still the name.

00:20:01.600 Um, and if you're going to go to try to try to defeat him, it's going to take a lot more

00:20:05.860 than just having Trump have a, uh, you know, uh, um, um, subpar night on election night.

00:20:10.640 Uh, because I still think that if you, if you're trying to kill the King, you better go 0.99

00:20:15.940 after him and kill him. 0.98

00:20:16.720 And I don't think that that has happened yet. 0.91

00:20:18.660 Um, I think if Trump decides to run again, I think he will be the prohibitive favorite.

00:20:22.880 Um, and I think it will take a, a very seasoned and, um, uh, a very seasoned campaign to, to

00:20:30.180 be able to overthrow him.

00:20:31.220 We'll be back with more full comment in just a moment.

00:20:34.260 I'm wondering if you could talk to us, Jay, a bit about the internal dynamics within the

00:20:41.180 Republican party.

00:20:42.080 Cause I think to your point, a lot of people in media, a lot of the commentators like to

00:20:46.960 make things very dramatic, you know, that there's like warring parties within the Republican

00:20:51.640 faction.

00:20:53.160 But then you look at some of these things and you see, you know, I was reading in the

00:20:56.660 wall street journal that, uh, Mitch McConnell's Senate leadership fund invested, you know,

00:21:02.260 32 million in the Ohio Senate race.

00:21:05.080 They say that it was 77% of all of the media spending in the Ohio race since mid August.

00:21:12.280 And so what you, what I think we saw in Ohio, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, is both,

00:21:17.900 you know, uh, Mitch McConnell's super PAC and Donald Trump, both backing JD Vance and showing

00:21:24.880 that there is perhaps not, you know, these like clear divisions between different elements

00:21:30.120 of the Republican party.

00:21:31.140 And maybe that might be how, you know, success is actually achieved.

00:21:34.940 What do you say to that?

00:21:36.160 Is it, is there more unity than, than maybe people see from the outside?

00:21:40.380 Well, look, I, there are definitely people when you, when you talk about a two party system,

00:21:44.820 um, and everyone's vying for power, they've, they've also got their own little visions of,

00:21:49.240 of how things should be run.

00:21:50.460 I, I'm not going to paper over it.

00:21:52.480 There is, there are absolutely people that are always jockeying for these different positions,

00:21:56.680 whether it's who is the current leader of the party, who is the, uh, intellectual leader

00:22:01.720 of the party, uh, who are the different leaders of the committees.

00:22:04.960 Um, and so that's always happening.

00:22:07.080 Uh, but you, you point out a very smart thing here in Ohio.

00:22:10.340 We had support from Mitch McConnell and his team.

00:22:12.660 We had support from Donald Trump and his team because he formed a super PAC, uh, uh, full

00:22:17.980 of his old advisors and, and they spent some money on our behalf as well.

00:22:21.440 There was help from a lot of folks because they knew Ohio was an important state and

00:22:25.920 they knew that JD was a candidate that, uh, could carry, it could, could translate a lot

00:22:30.420 of the vision, um, uh, to, to a lot of voters.

00:22:33.360 So I, I do think that there can be times that there's unity.

00:22:36.020 And I think broadly speaking, we want the same things, but, uh, there are certain, there

00:22:40.660 are certain divisions in the party and look, the Democrats have them too.

00:22:44.160 Um, they have them all over the place.

00:22:46.040 So this is just a normal function of politics.

00:22:47.960 And I, I don't, I don't think that there's anything different about this, this period

00:22:51.040 of time that there has been at any other time.

00:22:53.320 Yeah.

00:22:53.360 I do want to ask you about the Democrats as well, but just one last question on this unity

00:22:57.220 thing, because, uh, Ben Shapiro, um, over at the daily wire, he had a, a Twitter thread

00:23:03.920 go viral after the midterms.

00:23:06.020 And one of the things he says is that the Republican leadership class has been paralyzed by the Trump

00:23:12.420 phenomenon and has failed to provide any leadership.

00:23:16.040 And that's how he explained some of the, um, underwhelming results in the midterms.

00:23:21.620 Do you think there's anything to that, that sort of, because of how powerful and influential

00:23:26.640 Trump is, maybe some of the people who are supposed to be articulating a bigger vision

00:23:31.940 of conservative politics for America sort of have their foot off the gas right now.

00:23:37.200 So, you know, the way I interpret that and, and maybe I'm wrong about it, but you know,

00:23:42.540 in 1994, when Republicans, uh, took the house of representatives, uh, for the first time in

00:23:48.740 decades, it, uh, Newt Gingrich was the speaker of the house.

00:23:52.100 And what they did is some of your listeners will remember there was this thing called the

00:23:55.260 contract for America.

00:23:56.320 And there was this platform where Republicans around the country could unite behind a positive

00:24:02.180 agenda of things that they were going to do for the country.

00:24:05.260 That's something that I don't think we've really done as a party for a long time.

00:24:09.400 We were very good at knocking down the big institutions and we're very good about saying

00:24:14.020 that these things have failed us.

00:24:15.380 And what, but, but what are we going to do?

00:24:17.360 How, what is our, uh, our, our policy agenda going to be that people can, you know, like really

00:24:22.500 grab onto and understand, um, and before now there's always danger politically doing that

00:24:27.920 kind of thing, because then once you put something out there, the opponents can spend millions,

00:24:31.840 uh, attacking it and, and saying that, you know, you're not for, uh, voters and you're

00:24:36.980 not for, uh, uh, different types of constituencies.

00:24:40.840 So I, I recognize that, but there are serious positives to having something like that too.

00:24:47.360 It's, it's a vision that people can then get behind and say, boy, you really are for

00:24:51.520 something.

00:24:51.860 And if it's crafted the right way, I think we can do it.

00:24:54.220 And I think that's, I think that's one of those things that I think we should be thinking

00:24:57.260 about for the next election cycle.

00:24:58.600 It will be very difficult when we're in a presidential because whoever is our standard

00:25:02.480 bearer will, will hold the bully pulpit, will, you know, control the media narrative, but

00:25:06.840 certainly for the next midterm election, I think those are opportunities for us to think

00:25:10.140 about.

00:25:11.300 One of the glaring opportunities for growth for Republicans, uh, that seems to stand out now

00:25:18.260 at every election is just making even moderate inroads into black and Hispanic, uh, communities.

00:25:25.720 It was part of the narrative going into the midterms that, you know, because of dissatisfaction

00:25:30.820 with Democrats, Republicans could pick up significant support among black and Hispanic men from the

00:25:37.260 exit poll.

00:25:37.920 So far, it looks like there was a percentage increase with those groups, but not enough to

00:25:43.900 make a much of a difference in outcomes.

00:25:46.240 And I, I looked at that and I thought, you know, I do think there's a difference between

00:25:51.000 people being disaffected by the democratic party and saying, I don't like the Democrats

00:25:56.540 versus people saying I like Republicans.

00:25:59.160 And I think Republicans have maybe, um, underestimated how many people would rather just not vote, um,

00:26:06.020 rather than switch parties.

00:26:07.980 Um, do you think that there's anything that can be learned from the midterms in terms of how

00:26:13.160 Republicans can actually increase their support among black and Hispanic voters?

00:26:18.920 Yeah, that's a very interesting point that you make.

00:26:21.080 And, and, but the one thing I would say is I would caution you on the exit polls, uh, because

00:26:25.440 they are, have been notoriously, you know, all over the place and wrong.

00:26:28.860 And I think we'll have a better sense of this in the days and months to come.

00:26:33.060 But, uh, but certainly if you want to just take that, that slice there too, and I, and I have

00:26:37.180 not seen that evidence yet, uh, because I do know that there were some Republicans that

00:26:41.260 were very bullish on the, uh, but the minority vote coming their way this election, but I'm

00:26:45.840 a little bit less, um, inclined to saying that that's the case.

00:26:50.080 Um, I, I think it's much harder to, especially when you're talking, talking about the African

00:26:54.460 American vote here in the country.

00:26:55.860 I, I, I've been part of campaigns where we've gotten up to, um, you know, 18, 20% of the African

00:27:01.620 American vote.

00:27:02.300 Uh, but it was when we directly engaged them on the issues that they cared about, um, that

00:27:08.540 as a community.

00:27:09.260 And at that point, you're able to break some folks off.

00:27:12.580 Now, crime certainly is a huge issue and it, and it affects black Americans, uh, disproportionately,

00:27:19.320 um, in, in this country.

00:27:21.660 And I think that that is something that Republicans were thinking that would just translate into

00:27:27.700 more votes for them.

00:27:28.780 Um, but I do think that there are more, there's more work to be done where we're actually engaging

00:27:35.500 them in their communities than the evidence that I've seen that we've actually done, uh,

00:27:39.460 in the future, if that's something that we're really interested in doing as a party.

00:27:42.740 Um, I think as, you know, in terms of the Hispanics, so like in Ohio, we've got a very low Hispanic

00:27:48.120 population.

00:27:48.600 So it's not something that, um, I've got a lot of experience in here, uh, in recent times,

00:27:54.500 uh, just in the last couple of election cycles, but, um, nationally, certainly it's a very

00:27:59.480 conservative culture as we know.

00:28:01.440 And once you get further down and there are more generations of Hispanics coming into it, 1.00

00:28:06.520 I do think that more of them will become, uh, will be willing to vote Republican.

00:28:10.980 So I think that's a natural thing that's going to happen.

00:28:13.280 But, uh, I think, I, I hope we don't take it for granted just because Democrats fail them.

00:28:18.940 Um, and I think Democrats have failed them in this country, they're not going to necessarily

00:28:23.120 turn to us until, unless we actually have a, um, uh, an agenda that they can say, boy,

00:28:28.480 you're really thinking about what we, what we care about.

00:28:31.040 Yeah.

00:28:31.560 And I think one of the interesting dynamics as, um, you know, the United States heads towards

00:28:37.080 the 2024 election is what happens with Joe Biden, because I think most people probably assumed

00:28:45.520 heading into the midterms that Joe Biden would not be running for president in 2024, but after

00:28:52.580 the results, now it seems to be a much more positive narrative around Joe Biden that perhaps

00:28:57.900 he's necessary in order to be more competitive.

00:29:01.340 I wonder if one, do you agree, uh, that this is, was a good result for Joe Biden?

00:29:06.620 And two, do you think this might create the conditions for a longer period of time to make

00:29:12.340 that pitch to black voters and Hispanic voters?

00:29:16.160 If Joe Biden and the status quo is going to continue, that maybe now there's a, it will

00:29:20.840 be easier to make the sell that if you want something different, if you want some kind

00:29:24.680 of change, you are going to need to consider the Republican option.

00:29:29.100 Yeah, I think those are good points.

00:29:30.580 And I, so I, let's talk about Biden first.

00:29:32.900 I think first of all, yes, of course, this was a good night for him.

00:29:36.140 Um, he's still wildly unpopular, but his party did a lot better than expectations.

00:29:40.620 So there's, there are good things, but there's a very dangerous, uh, a part of this too.

00:29:44.860 Um, this White House and Joe Biden has also said that he's not going to do anything different.

00:29:51.360 Um, if the lessons that they learn from this or that their policies are what America needs,

00:29:58.180 they're going to be wildly mistaken.

00:30:00.960 And they will, in my opinion, lose a reelection, uh, by great margins because these policies

00:30:08.120 have, have, have gotten lots of American suffering.

00:30:11.960 Um, we may have had individual campaigns here.

00:30:14.920 We may have had individual candidates that couldn't speak to it and couldn't take advantage

00:30:18.160 of that this time.

00:30:19.120 But I assure you that the next, um, the nominee from our party will, and, uh, that'll be a

00:30:25.180 very different scenario for Joe Biden.

00:30:27.340 Um, and, uh, let me also say this too, before we talk about, uh, continuing Black Americans,

00:30:32.140 you know, the U.S. Senate map, whether we take the Senate or not this year, when, when

00:30:36.380 all is said and done, it is much more favorable to Republicans.

00:30:39.520 There are going to be a lot more Democrat seats up that, than this map was.

00:30:43.500 So it is highly likely that Republicans take the Senate the next time, uh, next, in two

00:30:48.000 years.

00:30:48.620 So there's, that's also got to be in the backdrop of all this.

00:30:52.280 Um, is there an opportunity for us to communicate with Black Americans and minorities in general?

00:30:57.040 Of course there is, but that's going to largely depend on the next presidential candidate because

00:31:02.880 they're going to be the ones, uh, that campaign is largely going to be the one that has to do

00:31:06.840 this.

00:31:07.560 Um, and there's got to be concerted effort to doing it.

00:31:11.040 Um, and, but short of that, I think it's largely going to be the same kind of percentage, uh,

00:31:16.720 maybe a uptick here and there, but it's not going to be something that is like, uh, decisive

00:31:20.720 in a, in a final election.

00:31:22.980 Yeah.

00:31:23.460 You know, earlier, Jay, you mentioned polling and I do want to spend some time on that because

00:31:27.880 most people listening, uh, to our conversation right now probably have never been asked their

00:31:33.680 opinion by a pollster.

00:31:35.900 And I think a lot of people experience polling just in terms of, you know, as we read newspapers,

00:31:40.440 listen to podcasts as this thing that's being done out there somewhere, but we don't really,

00:31:46.460 most of us aren't part of it.

00:31:47.680 We don't really know what to make of it.

00:31:48.960 We don't know how much to rely on it.

00:31:50.520 You have websites like real clear politics who I think are trying to bring more accountability

00:31:56.240 and structure to polling to make sure there's more integrity to the numbers that people receive.

00:32:02.360 But I wondered from a campaign's perspective, how do you interpret polling, you know, two

00:32:08.160 months ago, one month ago, one week ago, when you guys are deciding how to, you know, use

00:32:12.920 your resources, how to win this election, do, what do polls mean to you?

00:32:17.640 Yeah.

00:32:18.160 So this is, this is an issue that I'm actually super passionate about.

00:32:21.480 I actually wrote a piece for the Daily Caller about this a couple of years ago because public

00:32:24.380 polling, there's two different things.

00:32:25.880 There's public polling and then there's private polling.

00:32:27.260 And I think public polling is an absolute disaster in America.

00:32:31.600 I think it's completely broken.

00:32:33.740 I think the way in which the media looks at polling is dishonest and hurts the American

00:32:39.980 people because they don't really understand it.

00:32:42.500 And they concentrate, concentrate on the horse race of who's up and who's down.

00:32:45.980 And that is not the way I use me who does politics for a living.

00:32:50.480 That's not the way we use polling.

00:32:51.860 I think it's been very difficult to, you know, historically to understand, to get Trump

00:32:58.580 voters to necessarily respond to polls.

00:33:00.820 So that's skewed things.

00:33:02.580 Certainly this time they overestimated Republicans in their polling and we'll figure out why.

00:33:09.200 But at the end of the day, what I do know is these folks don't know what they're doing.

00:33:12.380 Now there's, before I go into, you know, our private polls and how we do it, you know, Monmouth

00:33:16.640 University, which used to conduct this big public poll of who's winning, who's not in the

00:33:21.200 last election cycle, they made a decision.

00:33:22.920 And I really applaud the decision to not do horse race polling anymore.

00:33:26.360 I think that does it, again, I think it does a disservice to people.

00:33:29.580 What they do is they track the moods, the issues that people care about.

00:33:33.780 And so you can kind of get a sense of where things are going, but they're not saying who's

00:33:36.980 up, who's down, because I'm going to tell you, these guys are almost always wrong.

00:33:41.880 And if they're right, they're lucky because they don't know what they're doing anymore.

00:33:46.260 And polling has been broken for about 10, 12 years.

00:33:48.280 Now, in the private side, you know, when we hire a pollster, look, a lot of these guys

00:33:53.000 have been missing the mark, too.

00:33:54.460 I know a lot of Republican pollsters that have not gotten an election right in, you know,

00:33:59.100 in several election cycles.

00:34:01.540 But there are some that are very good.

00:34:03.360 And I happen to think that the pollster that I, that we use, Tony Fabrizio, who is Donald

00:34:06.980 Trump's pollster, too, is one of the best in the business.

00:34:09.240 And he was very accurate with his numbers.

00:34:11.980 But with the way in which we use it is, sure, we get a ballot number.

00:34:15.680 Or we know, OK, your candidate's up or your candidate's down.

00:34:18.600 But that's usually the last thing I look at.

00:34:20.700 Or if it's something I look at, it's not something I pay much attention to for most of the election

00:34:24.140 cycle.

00:34:24.800 What we do is we look at the issues that are most important.

00:34:27.480 We look at the crosstabs.

00:34:28.440 We look at the gettable voters.

00:34:29.960 We look at what messages that they care about, what issues they care about.

00:34:33.680 And we put a strategy in place and a messaging strategy, a grassroots strategy based around

00:34:39.140 those numbers, is how do we move numbers towards us?

00:34:42.560 And we also have these, and beyond polling, we also use data analytics as well, too, to

00:34:48.420 build models of the electorate so that we kind of know where things are.

00:34:51.400 And when you use the combination of those two things, you can put together a very effective

00:34:55.400 campaign.

00:34:56.460 And by the end of it, I felt very comfortable.

00:34:58.740 Look, for my election here in Ohio, I predicted we were going to get 53% or 54%.

00:35:04.220 As we sit here today, I think it's like 53.3%.

00:35:08.200 So I was right along where it was.

00:35:10.640 But that's because the folks that we had do a good job on it.

00:35:13.840 And we built a plan to get to where we needed to go.

00:35:16.900 So there was a heck of a lot of irrational exuberance around the country, in my state,

00:35:23.700 with how Republicans are going to do.

00:35:25.760 And I don't really see why they had those beliefs, but it's largely because these public

00:35:31.500 polls are just terrible at what they do.

00:35:35.040 So I hope that answers the question, because we do use it very differently than the media

00:35:39.220 uses it or the public uses it.

00:35:40.940 I wish the media would educate themselves on this, but I don't hold any hope there, because

00:35:45.360 I think the media is also broken.

00:35:46.560 So someone like Donald Trump would say that these public polls are skewed for a reason,

00:35:54.340 that it's intentionally, I mean, he's basically said it's a type of voter suppression.

00:35:59.300 It's meant to influence whether people think it's possible for Republicans to win, so that

00:36:06.160 people will be discouraged to vote.

00:36:07.860 Do you think there's reason to believe that there's some intention behind this?

00:36:11.540 Or is it just a matter of wanting to get clicks?

00:36:14.020 Like, what's the reason?

00:36:14.880 Yeah, so look, I don't agree with that.

00:36:18.420 I think that they're just incompetent, for the most part.

00:36:23.600 I do think polls get clicks.

00:36:25.340 I think polls get viewership.

00:36:26.560 I know that the media outlets love talking about polls, because people love the horse race.

00:36:30.360 They love this stuff.

00:36:32.120 I think, look, there's certainly some partisan polls that are there to either raise money

00:36:36.820 for their candidates or to suppress votes, whatever.

00:36:39.060 But largely, these university-driven polls, these big news organization polls, I don't think

00:36:42.980 that's what it is.

00:36:43.580 I just think they're really incompetent.

00:36:45.420 They don't know what they're doing.

00:36:46.480 And it's a money grab for them.

00:36:48.160 And I wish they would stop, because I think it's very hurtful to voters.

00:36:53.840 Are you optimistic that the RealClearPolitics accountability effort or some of these other

00:36:59.500 things might actually change polling?

00:37:01.800 No, no, I'm not.

00:37:03.340 I'm not.

00:37:04.200 And look, I look at it, too.

00:37:06.180 Certainly, I do.

00:37:07.560 But I try not to look at the horse race numbers, the ballot numbers.

00:37:10.960 No, the reason I'm not is because, again, as an industry, I think they've lost their way.

00:37:15.060 They don't know what they're doing.

00:37:16.120 And they're selling snake oil at this point.

00:37:17.660 And so I'm very pessimistic on all these other things.

00:37:22.780 I'm not pessimistic on polls.

00:37:25.080 If you're a campaign, I think that there's a lot of value to it, especially if you find

00:37:28.800 a pollster that actually understands how to do it.

00:37:30.800 But I am very, very pessimistic on the public polls out there.

00:37:35.480 So what advice would you have for sort of the average person who doesn't have access

00:37:40.580 to private polls?

00:37:42.020 Should they put any stock into the public polls?

00:37:44.540 Are there certain polling outlets that are more reliable than others?

00:37:49.000 No, I would.

00:37:50.420 So, yeah, there's all these people that give grades.

00:37:52.540 And remember, the grades are based on the last polls before the election.

00:37:55.900 And a lot of times there, it's gamed.

00:38:01.120 I do think that there is some stuff that they gamed to make it look like what they think

00:38:05.560 the election's going to be.

00:38:07.080 But what I'll say, look, if you're an average person and you actually care about this stuff,

00:38:11.500 don't look at the ballot number, especially early in the election cycle, because things

00:38:15.440 can change.

00:38:16.040 Campaigns can be run.

00:38:16.900 Look, my job as a strategist is to change polling numbers, always.

00:38:22.400 Even if we're up by 20, I'm going to try to get to up by 30.

00:38:25.560 If we're down by 20, I'm going to try to win by two or three.

00:38:29.680 So campaigns have to be run.

00:38:32.280 And look, pundits will always look at these polls, especially early in the cycle, and

00:38:35.340 say, oh my goodness, this candidate has no chance to win.

00:38:37.940 And their coverage on it will be skewed.

00:38:40.200 But they have not allowed the campaign to be run.

00:38:43.780 So if you're just someone that is interested in politics and wants to look at this thing,

00:38:49.000 certainly look at polls, but look at them in the cross tabs.

00:38:53.280 Ignore the ballot numbers.

00:38:54.760 Look at where voters are.

00:38:55.960 Look at what issues are driving them.

00:38:57.440 And then as the same outfits continues to poll, look at the trends.

00:39:03.080 If you start to understand those kinds of things, you'll have a better sense of where

00:39:05.760 the electorate is, even if you don't know what the mix is.

00:39:09.960 And look, one thing that's really interesting about polls, people think that they're very

00:39:14.460 scientific.

00:39:15.020 They're not.

00:39:16.520 Certainly there's science behind them, but it's really about the inputs.

00:39:19.720 It's how you determine what questions to ask, how you ask those questions, but also what

00:39:26.220 are the demographics you're going to poll.

00:39:28.720 And those inputs really have a huge influence on what the final output is going to be.

00:39:34.000 So you've got to really look at those things, too.

00:39:37.200 And it's a very hard thing for a regular person to do.

00:39:39.840 I don't doubt it.

00:39:41.680 But still, you're going to get a basic sense of trend lines of where things are and where

00:39:46.540 the country's going.

00:39:47.240 And I think you'll have a better sense of it.

00:39:48.500 But you will not know what the final number is.

00:39:50.240 Well, it sounds like there's a business opportunity there for anyone who can put together a reliable

00:39:56.900 polling methodology.

00:40:00.820 Well, lastly here, Jay, the expectation is that at some point in the coming days, Donald

00:40:07.340 Trump is going to announce his intention to run for president in 2024.

00:40:11.960 I'm just wondering if you can give us your thoughts on what to expect in the next 12,

00:40:16.880 24 months.

00:40:17.620 So what are you what are you seeing?

00:40:19.500 You're not going to get a satisfying answer from me on this one, because if you're asking

00:40:22.740 me to predict what Donald Trump's going to do or what the aftermath is going to be, I

00:40:25.920 am not the person.

00:40:26.980 I don't know that there is a person that can do that.

00:40:29.040 So I'm going to tell you, Jamil, I do.

00:40:31.440 I watch along and I, you know, I pass the popcorn.

00:40:34.580 So what would I say?

00:40:36.380 That's fair.

00:40:37.280 Well, certainly with with the likelihood of Trump coming back, we are not going to be longing

00:40:42.640 for interesting news in the world of American politics.

00:40:46.260 He keeps things he keeps things unpredictable at minimum.

00:40:50.180 So one time I was doing the CBC.

00:40:52.440 I was up there in Canada.

00:40:53.940 I think it was the 2018 elections.

00:40:55.120 And I asked one of the producers, why do you guys care so much about what happens, you

00:40:59.680 know, in the American elections?

00:41:00.520 And the producer said to me, well, we just want to see what happens next season on America.

00:41:05.460 And I've always remembered that is as you guys consume the media that we have down here,

00:41:10.480 because I'm sure it is just something it's like a reality show for for for you guys up

00:41:14.960 there.

00:41:15.400 It's pretty amazing.

00:41:16.520 Yeah, yeah.

00:41:17.580 Well, as long as we don't have to have people suffering negative consequences, which is

00:41:22.180 right.

00:41:22.980 That's the difference between the reality show that is Donald Trump versus the reality show

00:41:27.520 that is Kim Kardashian, actual human lives at stake.

00:41:31.660 Very true.

00:41:33.420 But, but Jay, really appreciate you joining us to talk about the midterms and congratulations

00:41:37.980 again on a successful campaign in Ohio.

00:41:40.820 I think you guys pulled something special off there, as you mentioned, with JD being the

00:41:45.140 first person to be elected to the Senate from Ohio without serving in political office.

00:41:50.680 And, you know, he's a young guy in his late 30s.

00:41:52.680 I mean, there's there's a lot of remarkable things about that story.

00:41:56.000 And, you know, appreciate you sharing with us.

00:41:58.240 There is indeed.

00:41:58.740 He's a remarkable candidate.

00:42:00.280 He's a remarkable candidate and he's got a bright future.

00:42:02.340 So I appreciate it very much, Jamil.

00:42:03.540 Thanks for having me on.

00:42:04.400 Thank you, Jay.

00:42:04.980 Take care.

00:42:05.880 Full Comment is a post media podcast.

00:42:08.620 I'm guest host Jamil Javani.

00:42:10.760 This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:42:15.740 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

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00:42:31.420 And of course, by telling your friends about us.

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Full Comment - November 14, 2022

Why Trump’s ‘new right’ politics are still a force

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