EXCLUSIVE： Iran's Regime Is Cornered — And More Dangerous Than Ever ｜ Morad Vaisi Analysis
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Summary
The biggest mistake the West is making right now is believing that the Islamic regime occupying Iran can be negotiated with. Because the regime in Tehran is doing exactly what it's always done: buying time, rebuilding, and waiting for the next opportunity.
Transcript
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The biggest mistake the West is making right now is believing that the Islamic regime occupying
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Iran can be negotiated with. Because the regime in Tehran is doing exactly what it's always done,
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buying time, rebuilding, regrouping, and waiting for the next opportunity. The most important
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intelligence and analysis about what's happening inside occupied Iran isn't coming from CNN,
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MSNBC, the BBC, or even most Western foreign policy experts. It's coming from Iranians
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ourselves. In a new video series that I'm making on The Goldie Show, today I'm bringing you an
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exclusive translation and analysis from Murad Vaisi, one of the most respected Iranian geopolitical
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analysts in the entire world, whose content is available almost exclusively in the Persian
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language. Millions of Iranians both inside and outside of occupied Iran follow him across numerous
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social media platforms because he has a deep understanding of the Islamic regime, the Iranian
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opposition movement, regional politics, and the power struggles happening behind the scenes.
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Most English-speaking audiences almost never hear his information. Most English-speaking audiences
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never have an opportunity to get the insider perspective and analysis into what's really
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happening in occupied Iran. Until now. Because I've received Morad Vesi's permission to translate
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his videos into English and share them with you. In this video, we're diving into a major analysis
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from Morad Vesi. And what he discusses in his live stream is absolutely critical because it
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touches on several issues that are shaping the future of Iran, Israel, the United States,
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the Persian Gulf, and potentially the future stability of the entire Middle East.
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He talks about the growing divisions among the Persian Gulf Arab states
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He talks about reports that the Islamic regime continues pursuing nuclear weapons
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He talks about the ongoing debate inside Washington over whether President Trump will
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ultimately choose diplomacy or military action. And most importantly, he talks about why the
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Islamic regime occupying Iran will never voluntarily abandon its core ideology, its
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hostility towards the West, its hostility towards Israel, its missile program, or its nuclear
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ambitions. Now think about where we are today. We've watched decades of negotiations, sanctions,
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and diplomatic initiatives, and yet the fundamental nature of the Islamic regime hasn't changed.
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Their slogans haven't changed. Their ideology hasn't changed. Their goals haven't changed.
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The Islamic regime occupying Iran still defines itself through its opposition to the United States,
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the great Satan, and Israel, the little Satan. And it still views exporting its Islamic revolutionary
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ideology as a core mission. And that's not just my analysis. That's exactly the concern being raised
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by top Iranian geopolitical expert analysts like Morad Vaisi, who have been closely monitoring
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developments inside occupied Iran every single day for decades. The question everyone is asking
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right now is simple. Can this Islamic regime be reformed? Can it be contained? Can it be
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negotiated into changing its behavior? Or is regime change ultimately the only long-term
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solution. That's the debate in the West. That's the debate in mainstream media. And that's the
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debate you're going to hear in today's translated analysis. You're also going to hear something that
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most Western audiences rarely hear discussed openly. The relationship between the Iranian
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opposition movement, Prince Reza Pahlavi, Israel, Ukraine, the United States, and the broader
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international effort to counter the Islamic regime occupying Iran. Morad Vaisi also makes
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the argument that many Iranians believe international support for the Iranian people
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in occupied Iran is not only justified, but it's necessary if the Islamic regime occupying Iran
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is ever going to be removed from power. Now, whether you agree with that position or not,
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it's an important perspective to understand because it reflects how millions of Iranians
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both inside and outside of occupied Iran view the current struggle.
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To bring you exclusive information that most English-speaking audiences never get access to.
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To translate important Persian language analysis.
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to give you direct insight into what Iranian experts, dissidents, opposition figures and
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top analysts are saying. Because if we want to understand where Iran is heading, we need to
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listen to the people who know the Islamic regime best. And few analysts understand the Islamic
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regime occupying Iran better than Morad Vesey. I'm Goldie Gamari, former politician and current
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geopolitical analyst and human rights activist, and you're watching The Goldie Show.
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So let's get right into it. This is my English translation and breakdown of Morad Veysi's
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latest analysis, word by word. And I want to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
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Do you think the Islamic regime can be negotiated with?
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Do you think the Islamic regime will eventually obtain nuclear weapons if it survives?
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And do you believe the Iranian people will ultimately succeed in overthrowing the Islamic regime?
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Kuwait's Ministry of Defense has announced that in attacks carried out by the Islamic Republic
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13 missiles and 17 drones were launched on Wednesday alone, a total of 30 missiles and
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drones, making it one of the largest attacks. They only reported one fatality, an Indian national
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and 63 injuries. Kuwait has responded by summoning the Islamic Republic's charge d'affaires and
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expelling two Iranian diplomats. One noteworthy point is that the country with the weakest
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currency in the world, the Islamic regime, has attacked a country with one of the strongest
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currencies in the world, the Kuwaiti dinar. One dinar is worth about three to three and a half
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US dollars. It's an extremely powerful currency, reflecting a strong economy. Many Persian Gulf
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economies are in better condition than that of the Islamic regime. And beyond its disputes with
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the United States, Israel, and military issues, this fact itself is a source of resentment for
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the Islamic regime. Why are these countries doing better than it is? After these attacks,
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Anwar Gargash, the prominent Emirati diplomat and diplomatic advisor to the President of the UAE,
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stated that the position and response of Gulf Cooperation Council member states
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should be unified. However, the reality is that they are not unified. The UAE has taken the
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toughest stance against the Islamic regime occupying Iran. Of all the countries in the region,
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the UAE has responded the most aggressively to attacks. It has attacked Lavon Island and struck
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targets inside Iranian territory in response to actions by the Islamic regime. It has the broadest
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cooperation with Israel. Beyond having established diplomatic relations with Israel six years ago and
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recognizing the state of Israel, it now maintains extensive military, political, and economic ties
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with Israel. During this recent war, the Israelis deployed air defense systems in the UAE and the
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UAE has advocated the strongest position against the Islamic regime. The UAE has moved beyond the
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era of appeasement. It argues that the Islamic regime must be confronted and that appeasement
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does not solve the problem. However, not every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council shares
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this view. Saudi Arabia has been more cautious in dealing with the Islamic regime. It has responded
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to some attacks, but not all of them. One reason is that Saudi Arabia's oil exports continue
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uninterrupted. Around 7 million barrels of oil can be transported through a pipeline that runs
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from Damom in eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, from where it is exported.
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Saudi ports on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba remain active. As a result, while shipping through
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the Persian Gulf has been disrupted due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian shipping has
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faced difficulties, Gulf states have increasingly routed some of their passenger and commercial
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traffic through Saudi Arabia. This has allowed the Saudi economy to continue growing, while many
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others have struggled. Saudi Arabia also differs significantly from the UAE regarding relations
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with Israel. The UAE maintains normal relations with Israel. However, Saudi Arabia still has not
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recognize the state of Israel and has stated that it will do so only when a Palestinian state
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with East Jerusalem as its capital is established. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is not seeking war
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with Israel as the Islamic regime does, but neither does it have normalized relations like
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the UAE does. As a result, Saudi Arabia's position differs from that of the UAE. Saudi Arabia is
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regarded as the leader of both the Arab world and the Islamic world, which gives its position
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additional significance. Historically, several countries have claimed leadership of the Arab
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world, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq. In the 1950s, Egypt was unquestionably the leader of the Arab world
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because of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Pan-Arabism was essentially founded and led by Nasser.
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Nasser was a leading anti-Israel figure, and at that time, no Arab country recognized Israel.
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This was the era of the Arab-Israeli wars, 1948, 1956, and 1967. Although Egypt did not win the
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1967 war and Nasser resigned, the Egyptian people demanded his return. His influence extended beyond
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Egypt itself. This was the period in which Egypt and Syria formed the United Arab Republic though
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it ultimately did not last. During the 1970s even after Nasser's death and Anwar Sadat's rise to
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the presidency Egypt remained the leader of the Arab world until 1979 when it signed the Camp
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David Accords. The Arab world reacted strongly against Egypt becoming the first Arab country
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and the League's headquarters was moved from Cairo to Tunis.
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until reconciliation occurred during the Iran-Iraq War era.
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Egypt continued to compete with Syria under Hafez al-Assad
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and Iraq under Saddam Hussein for leadership of the Arab world. Syria eventually fell out of
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contention due to the devastating decade-long civil war under Bashar al-Assad. Its membership
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in the Arab League was suspended. War ravaged the country and its economy suffered severe damage.
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Iraq weakened after Saddam Hussein's era, especially following the Kuwait war and the
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sanctions that followed. Egypt was weakened by the Arab Spring and would have suffered even more
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had it not received support from Saudi Arabia. As a result of all these developments and alongside
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Saudi Arabia's strong economic growth and successful management of Islamic political
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affairs, Saudi Arabia emerged as both the leader of the Arab world and the leader of the Islamic
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world. It now possesses tremendous influence. Therefore, when Saudi Arabia says it still does
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not recognize Israel, that matters. Likewise, whatever position Saudi Arabia takes toward
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the Islamic regime carries significant weight. Among the six Gulf Cooperation Council states,
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Bahrain is a small country but hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet. Bahrain's domestic and foreign
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policies differ somewhat from those of its neighbors. Its internal security and political
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stability are heavily tied to Saudi Arabia. During the Arab Spring in 2011, when Bahrain's
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monarchy appeared close to collapse, Saudi forces intervened to support it. However, in foreign
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policy, Bahrain today is much closer to the UAE than to Saudi Arabia, because Bahrain has recognized
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the state of Israel, just like the UAE, while Saudi Arabia has not. Because each of these
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countries has a different relationship with the Islamic regime occupying Iran. Not all of them
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are like the UAE. And Kuwait, despite now being under the heaviest attacks, historically had few
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major disputes with the Islamic regime. The Islamic regime is attacking Kuwait because three U.S.
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military bases are located there and because it believes Kuwait is an easier target. It can attack
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Kuwait from Khoramshar, Abaddon or from Iraq. At the same time, the Islamic regime believes that
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unlike the UAE or Saudi Arabia, which have responded to some attacks, Kuwait is unlikely
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to retaliate, at least for now. That's why the Islamic regime treats Kuwait differently.
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One final country is Qatar. The Emiratis have an interesting description of Qatar.
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They say that Qatar is both a victim and a mediator. On one hand, the Islamic Republic
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launches missiles at Qatar. On the other hand, Qatar steps forward as a mediator rather than
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confronting the Islamic regime. The reality is that Qatar's strategic position is that it benefits
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from the Islamic regime's survival. Why? Because of natural gas. Iran and Qatar share a massive
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gas field. The longer the Islamic regime remains under sanctions and lacks access to advanced
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energy technology, the less it can exploit its portion of that shared field. This benefits
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Qatar, and for that reason, Qatar wants the Islamic regime occupying Iran to remain in place.
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Even though the Islamic regime attacked Qatari gas facilities and reportedly reduced production
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by about 20%, Qatar still sees the Islamic regime's continued existence as advantageous.
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The final country is Oman. Oman maintained good relations with Iran during the Shah's era
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because the Shah helped Oman defeat communist insurgents in Dofar. After the revolution,
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Oman continued those relations and frequently served as a mediator between the United States
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and the Islamic regime occupying Iran. However, recent attacks by the Islamic regime against Oman
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demonstrate that even Oman is not immune. Therefore, among these six countries, not all
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share the UAE's position. When it comes to military responses, however, the countries that have
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responded have been the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The countries closest to Israel have been the UAE
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and Bahrain. And the countries historically closest to the Islamic regime occupying Iran
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have been Oman and Qatar. And the country currently under direct attack is Kuwait.
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Each faces a different situation. Bloomberg has published a report stating that the Islamic regime
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is secretly attempting to build a nuclear bomb, citing several informed sources and data from the
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International Atomic Energy Agency. According to the report, the Islamic regime is continuing
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efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The IAEA has stated that since the war began,
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it no longer has access to Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Whenever inspectors lose
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access to such material, it becomes dangerous because the Islamic regime could potentially
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use it to build a nuclear weapon. Morad Vesey's belief is that after the 12-day war and the
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subsequent 40-day period, if the Americans give the regime an opportunity, the Islamic regime will
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move towards building a nuclear bomb. If the Islamic regime occupying Iran concludes that
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the United States is no longer planning to take military action against it, then during that
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period it will proceed with developing nuclear weapons. The Israelis have a more realistic
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assessment. They believe the Islamic regime will continue pursuing nuclear weapons and therefore
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argue that negotiations should not be trusted and that military action should be taken instead.
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The United States, however, has not yet reached that conclusion. The overall message we hear from
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Marco Rubio and Donald Trump is that they believe Operation Economic Fury has concluded.
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Today, Rubio made additional statements saying that the United States does not intend to continue
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sustained attacks inside Iranian territory aimed at weakening the Islamic regime's military
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capabilities because the operation has ended. Trump also spoke and said that in that part of
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the world, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, the concept of a ceasefire is different.
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He described it as a situation where firing continues, but at a lower intensity.
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He also repeated his usual statements about obtaining the uranium,
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defeating the Islamic regime's ambitions, and similar themes.
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Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of limiting Trump's war powers.
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However, this measure must still pass the Senate.
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Moradvesi, in his translation, says that he doubts that in the end,
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President Trump would accept such restrictions even if they were passed.
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An overriding of veto would require a two-thirds majority in Congress,
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His view is that if Trump decides to launch another attack,
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Congress will probably not be able to stop him.
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At the moment, however, President Trump himself appears to be divided 50-50 between resuming military action and reaching an agreement with the Islamic regime.
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At present, neither option can be said to have a greater chance of success.
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One day, the news suggests the likelihood of an attack has decreased and prospects for an agreement have improved.
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too much attention should not be paid to these fluctuations. The possibility of an agreement
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and the possibility of military action remain roughly equal. At the same time,
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the United States is waiting for a response from the Islamic regime. Within the Islamic regime
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itself, there are divisions regarding how to respond to the Americans and what consequences
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that respond could bring. If they do not reach an agreement, could the United States attack?
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One of the most important questions currently facing the Islamic regime occupying Iran
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is whether a miscalculation could have severe consequences for the regime. That miscalculation
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concerns this particular question. Have the Americans truly lost interest in war? Because
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As based on Rubio's statements, President Trump's remarks and congressional actions,
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the Islamic regime may conclude that the United States is no longer interested in military
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If the Islamic regime reaches that conclusion, it may decide to stand firm, refuse to compromise
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and reject concessions in negotiations because it believes the Americans are not willing
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Another possible calculation is that, despite Rubio's and Trump's apparent reluctance
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to attack, if the Islamic regime adopts a sufficiently hard-line position, the United
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States could suddenly surprise everyone and launch military action.
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The Islamic regime occupying Iran remains uncertain about whether an attack will occur.
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Now, what effect does all of this have on the Islamic regime?
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This brings Morad Vesey to the main point that he wants to discuss.
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His belief is that the Islamic regime will not retreat before the Iranian people,
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The Islamic regime will not accept the demands of the Iranian people unless the people overthrow it.
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Likewise, the Islamic regime will not accept the international order unless the United States decisively breaks its power.
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The Islamic regime occupying Iran will not fundamentally compromise with either the Iranian people or the United States.
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Now, Morad Vesey is not talking about limited tactical agreements.
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he says that strategically the islamic regime will not abandon its anti-americanism ideology
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it will not abandon its hostility towards israel it will not abandon its missile program and it
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will certainly not abandon its nuclear program it will not abandon support for its proxy forces
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either if the islamic regime can close the strait of hormos it will if the islamic regime can
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destabilize the Bab-ul-Mandeb Strait, it will do so as well. Fundamentally, the Islamic regime
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will never back down. The solution, in Murad Veysi's view, is that just as the Iranian people
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have stood up to seek the Islamic regime's overthrow, the world should stand with the
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Iranian people. Prince Riza Pahlavi has repeatedly said that the world should help itself by helping
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the Iranian people. The Iranian people will eventually overthrow the regime sooner or later.
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However, if the Islamic regime survives, the world will become even less stable. If the Islamic regime
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falls, the world will become more stable. Therefore, Europe, the region, the broader
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international community, and the United States should act not only for the sake of the Iranian
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people, but also for the sake of their own citizens and their own national security interests.
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If the Islamic regime can launch missiles at Israel and neighboring countries today,
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then it will undoubtedly seek the ability to launch missiles at the United States tomorrow.
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Now today, inside of occupied Iran, a group of members of parliament reportedly wrote a letter
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to Moshtaba Khamenei, calling for the range of the Islamic regime's missiles to be increased
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so that they could reach Donald Trump's office. Think about that. Islamic regime elected officials
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in their parliament are demanding that the Islamic regime build missiles that can reach
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all the way to President Trump's office in the White House. That's the nature of the Islamic
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regime occupying Iran. If it believes it can survive it will not only fire missiles at countries
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in the region and at Israel again but it will eventually target Europe as well. It would target
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Berlin, Paris, London. It would also seek the capability to strike Washington. It would seek
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the capability to strike New York. This, in Morad Vesey's view, is the character and nature of the
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Islamic regime. Now the Iranian people in Israel understand this reality very well. They believe
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the Islamic regime must be overthrown. The United States and Europe, however, have not yet fully
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reached that conclusion. Europeans often fear that if they provoke the Islamic regime, it might
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eventually target Berlin, Paris or London. Morad Vesi's response is that whether they provoke it
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or not, if the Islamic regime survives long enough, it will eventually pursue those capabilities
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anyway. If the Islamic regime survives, one day it will seek missile confrontation with the United
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States. If it survives, it will build a nuclear bomb and it will build missiles capable of carrying
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that bomb. The assessment of the Iranian people and Israel that the Islamic regime must be removed
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is, in Murad Vaisi's view, the correct assessment. Today, Netanyahu stated that the Iranian people
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should be helped in their effort to overthrow their government. Netanyahu said the Iranian
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people should receive assistance in bringing down their regime. That is precisely what the vast
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majority of Iranians want. Regarding his differences with President Trump, Netanyahu said
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that he generally agrees with Trump on Iran, but that there are occasionally tactical disagreements.
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According to Netanyahu, Trump believes the Islamic regime's uranium enrichment issue
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can still be resolved through negotiations. Netanyahu said that Trump should be given time.
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Regarding decisions about escalating tensions or using military means to keep the Strait of Hormuz
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open, Netanyahu stated that he would leave those decisions to President Trump. He emphasized that
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Israel is prepared. This brings Morad Vesey to another topic, the necessity of cooperation
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between opponents of the Islamic regime and cooperation between the Iranian people,
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Ukraine, and Israel against the Islamic regime occupying Iran.
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Morad Vaisi believes the Iranian people have every right to take advantage of any international
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opportunity available to help overthrow the Islamic regime, just as the Islamic regime
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uses every international opportunity to ensure its own survival. Now that does not mean,
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and Morad Vesey has said this many times, that the Iranian people are waiting for others to act
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on their behalf. The Iranian people did their part in 2009. They did their part in 2017.
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They did their part in 2019 and they did their part in 2022. And of course, they did their part
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in 2026. These are not people who simply sit and wait for foreigners. The Iranian people take
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action themselves. However, there comes a point where the regime possesses weapons and organized
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state power and at that stage governments must confront governments. At that point in Morad
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Vasi's opinion. Iranians need assistance from countries such as Israel and Ukraine. And Iranians
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should benefit from the kind of support that sovereign states can provide in the struggle
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to overthrow the Islamic regime occupying them. Iranians should benefit from the assistance that
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governments such as Ukraine and Israel can provide in the effort to overthrow the Islamic regime.
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Of course, they do not provide such assistance out of charity.
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Ukraine is being attacked by the Islamic regime through Russia
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in the form of drones and other military assistance used against the Ukrainian people.
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The Islamic regime also represents an existential threat to Israel.
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Therefore, both Israel and the Ukraine have national interests
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that motivate them to help the Iranian people. Likewise, the Iranian people can accept assistance
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from Ukraine and Israel because it serves the Iranian people's national interests as well.
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These are sovereign governments. The capabilities available to governments differ greatly from those
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available to political groups, private organizations, or individuals. Governments possess diplomatic
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influence. Governments have ministries and institutions with significant resources and
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expertise. Governments have capabilities that can strengthen the Iranian opposition.
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So according to Monad Vesey, the question is this. If the Iranian people seek assistance from Israel
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or Ukraine against the Islamic regime, is there anything wrong with that? And in his view,
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no, there's nothing wrong with that at all. Those countries would act in pursuit of their
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own national interests and the Iranian people would do the same. More broadly, is it inherently
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wrong to seek foreign assistance in overthrowing a dictatorial and oppressive regime? Again,
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Morad Vesey responds no. History provides many examples. The important condition is that Iran's
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right to determine its own future and its own political system must remain intact. Many countries
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achieved freedom with foreign assistance. Many received military support from outside powers.
00:32:27.860
Take France as an example. By 1944, France had been occupied by Nazi Germany for four years.
00:32:35.940
The French resistance fought bravely and continuously throughout that period.
00:32:40.260
yet in the end foreign assistance was necessary to liberate France. Now that does not mean the
00:32:47.620
French resistance was illegitimate or unimportant. Likewise, Iranians are not abandoning their own
00:32:55.220
national uprising. The national movement remains the foundation of the Iranian people's struggle
00:33:02.160
against the Islamic regime. The fundamental source of the strength of the Iranian people
00:33:08.420
is their own national uprising. We witnessed that strength on January 8 and 9, when millions
00:33:17.020
and millions of people participated. The leadership of this national movement has become established.
00:33:24.980
The Lion and Son Revolution is led by none other than His Royal Highness Mirza Pahlavi.
00:33:31.420
That movement is the cornerstone and foundation of the Iranian National Revolution.
00:33:38.280
However, Iranians still have the right to seek assistance from foreign governments,
00:33:43.900
and historically, this has been entirely normal.
00:33:48.380
On June 6, 1944, American, British, Canadian, Australian, and Free French forces landed in Normandy.
00:33:58.560
Only after that landing was Germany defeated and France.
00:34:03.260
Recognizing that fact does not diminish the sacrifices of the French people and the French resistance.
00:34:10.160
Everyone understands that without American assistance on June 6, 1944,
00:34:26.140
Luxembourg would not have been liberated. Even Germany itself would not ultimately
00:34:32.800
have been liberated and freed from its Nazi rule. American and British soldiers entered Germany
00:34:41.140
and Germany was liberated. That same pattern can be seen elsewhere. Japan was liberated from
00:34:48.980
militarist rule with foreign assistance. South Korea also benefited from foreign support.
00:34:55.080
Today, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea are advanced democracies with advanced economies.
00:35:04.240
All four countries benefited from foreign assistance at critical moments in their history.
00:35:12.140
Therefore, when some people claim that democracy can never arrive in the backpacks of foreign soldiers,
00:35:20.140
Morad Vaisi considers that an overly simplistic and meaningless slogan.
00:35:26.060
History contains numerous examples of dictatorships being overthrown with foreign assistance.
00:35:32.280
The Islamic regime occupying Iran benefits when people believe that foreign assistance is inherently illegitimate,
00:35:44.120
Does this mean, as critics sometimes claim, that Iranians are simply waiting for foreigners to save them?
00:35:56.120
However, Iranians also have the right to seek outside assistance.
00:36:13.320
And Iranians should seek it from countries that are prepared, capable, and willing to help
00:36:18.500
because their national interests align with the Iranian people's interests.
00:36:25.140
Some countries may be able to offer short-term support.
00:36:28.940
Others may be willing to provide long-term support.
00:36:32.440
Israel, for example, may be prepared to provide long-term support.
00:36:37.700
Israel's fundamental interest is the overthrow of the Islamic regime.
00:36:41.800
This is because if the Islamic regime develops advanced missiles and nuclear weapons,
00:36:49.120
Israel sees itself as being directly threatened.
00:36:52.840
Across Israel's political spectrum, there is broad agreement that the Islamic regime must be removed.
00:36:59.040
And for that reason, Iranians can count on Israeli support over the long term.
00:37:04.820
Israel regards the Islamic regime occupying Iran as its own problem as well.
00:37:10.720
During both the 12-day war and the subsequent 40-day period, Israel maintained a consistent
00:37:16.900
policy. Israeli politicians and military officials repeatedly stated that they would help the Iranian
00:37:24.760
people in efforts to bring down the regime. Israeli assistance has often been precise and
00:37:31.220
targeted in ways that many Iranians appreciate. When specific Islamic regime officials or
00:37:37.660
instruments of repression were targeted, many Iranians felt encouraged. Ukraine is another
00:37:44.860
possible partner. Now at the moment, Ukraine can be counted on. Whether that support will continue
00:37:51.500
over the long term is less certain. The Russia-Ukraine war may eventually end and Ukraine's
00:37:58.520
priorities could change. And at that point, Ukraine may no longer be willing to provide
00:38:04.080
the same level of support. At present, however, Morad Vaisi believes because the Islamic regime
00:38:11.380
occupying Iran supplies drones and other military assistance to Russia for use against Ukrainians,
00:38:19.060
Ukraine and the Iranian people have common interests. Now how long that alignment will last,
00:38:25.740
according to Morad Vaisi, remains uncertain. In international politics, no country remains
00:38:32.800
permanently aligned with another. Every country always pursues its own national interests.
00:38:40.920
For a period of time, those interests may coincide with another country's interests and later
00:38:47.080
they may diverge. Morad Vesi's belief is that opponents of the Islamic regime need to think
00:38:55.100
in more detailed and strategic ways. By strategic, he means there must be a strong
00:39:02.020
determination to succeed. And by detailed, he means that in different sectors and fields,
00:39:08.560
efforts should be made to secure assistance from countries such as Ukraine and Israel.
00:39:14.260
And once again, Morad Vesey emphasizes, this does not replace the Iranian national uprising.
00:39:21.460
And he repeats this because critics often claim that Iranians are relying entirely
00:39:27.340
on foreign help and that is simply not true. The primary source of power for the Iranian
00:39:35.500
national lion and son revolution comes from the Iranian people. The Iranian people have never
00:39:42.820
waited for foreigners before launching their protests. They did not wait for outsiders during
00:39:48.560
previous uprisings and today while the people remain the foundation of the movement, Iranians
00:39:55.300
can and should still benefit from foreign assistance. So why should this point be
00:40:01.900
emphasized now? Well, that's because Morad Vesey believes that sooner or later Iranian people will
00:40:09.160
rise up again with these prices, with this inflation, with inflation running into the
00:40:17.520
hundreds of percents. Iranian society will rise again soon. No one can prevent that. And at
00:40:24.640
present, there's an important question circulating within society. A massive uprising took place
00:40:32.720
on January 8 and 9. The Islamic regime responded with killings and repression. And now the Iranian
00:40:40.740
people ask, if another uprising occurs and the Islamic regime kills people again, should people
00:40:48.080
still rise up. Murad Vaisi's answer is that Iranians, we Iranians as a nation, must find
00:40:57.120
ways to overcome the Islamic regime's apparatus of repression. The energy and anger of the Iranian
00:41:05.600
nation should be directed towards moments when the likelihood of success is higher. And in his view,
00:41:12.560
That means responding to a call from Prince Rizal Pahlavi when conditions are favorable.
00:41:20.780
The objective should be to maximize the chances of success while minimizing harm to the Iranian people.
00:41:31.720
However, society does not necessarily move according to his beliefs or anyone else's.
00:41:40.420
And if conditions become unbearable and people decide to rise up again, they will do so.
00:41:50.840
There's a difference between a possible uprising and an ideal uprising.
00:41:59.260
an ideal uprising is one that occurs after Iranians have found effective ways
00:42:04.860
to overcome the Islamic regime's machinery of repression.
00:42:08.660
An ideal uprising is organized, coordinated, called at the right moment, and has a high probability of success while minimizing casualties.
00:42:23.120
However, actual uprisings are not controlled by analysts, commentators, or even by Prince Reza Pahlavi himself.
00:42:31.660
because if economic pressure continues to increase especially through inflation and rising prices
00:42:38.900
people may rise up on their own initiative. Now some people have commented saying don't encourage
00:42:45.920
people to rise up the conditions are not ready. Muradvesi says he's not encouraging people to rise
00:42:52.280
up his belief is that an ideal uprising occurs when the conditions for success are favorable
00:42:59.020
It occurs when His Royal Highness Reza Pahlavi issues a call, when the power of the nation can bring millions of people into the streets together, when the chances of success are high, and when the people can avoid unnecessary harm.
00:43:15.300
In Murad Vesey's opinion, that is when the Iranian nation should concentrate its energy.
00:43:21.740
The Iranian people's anger, which is justified, and their national hatred towards the Islamic regime, should be preserved for that moment.
00:43:32.780
But ultimately, this isn't in anyone's hands, because if society decides to rise up, Iranians will not ask anyone for permission.
00:43:41.620
The amount of anger building within the Iranian society is enormous. At any moment,
00:43:48.340
another uprising could occur. Inflation is especially important in this regard because
00:43:54.260
the dramatic rise in food prices is occurring at such a rapid pace that it is fueling the next
00:44:02.420
uprising at the same rate. Economic dissatisfaction, particularly dissatisfaction caused by food
00:44:10.020
inflation is among the most explosive forms of social unrest anywhere in the world. No social
00:44:18.700
grievance ignites faster than inflation and rising food prices. It's like gasoline. It can instantly
00:44:27.620
create a massive fire. And if this is the direction in which the Iranian society is moving, what
00:44:35.360
should political activists do? Well first, when confronting the Islamic regime, Iranians must put
00:44:43.060
an end to the divisions between various groups. Against the Islamic regime, all Iranians must
00:44:51.340
stand together and all opponents of the Islamic regime who genuinely want the regime gone should
00:44:57.400
be united. When one of our loved ones stood in the streets protesting and bullets were fired at them,
00:45:03.780
the Islamic regime did not stop to ask whether that person supported so-and-so or so-and-so before killing them.
00:45:13.140
When one wounded protester fell to the ground and another person rushed to help,
00:45:17.860
the Islamic regime did not ask whether the person providing help supported King Erzapahlavi or not before shooting them as well.
00:45:26.760
inside the country inside occupied iran during those massive protests on january 7 8 and 9
00:45:34.500
the iranian people did not concern themselves with such distinctions therefore those of us outside
00:45:41.580
have a responsibility to remain united against the islamic regime to the greatest extent possible
00:45:48.100
and set aside these disagreements because we can settle those disputes later through the ballot box
00:45:54.660
after the Islamic regime is gone. And removing the Islamic regime is the first task. The second
00:46:03.280
task is to protect the achievements of the Iranian people. We Iranians must not allow anyone to
00:46:11.400
undermine the significance of the mass uprising of the Iranian people on January 8 and 9, which
00:46:19.140
has become a powerful force. We must not allow anyone to undermine the leadership role of His
00:46:26.920
Royal Highness Reza Pahlavi during the transitional period. We must not allow the Islamic regime and
00:46:34.440
its agents to weaken that leadership. And we must continue moving forward by finding ways to
00:46:41.540
overcome the Islamic regime's machinery of repression, something that Murad Vaisi has
00:46:46.880
discussed extensively in the past. Today, Murad Vesi repeats that the Iranian people have every
00:46:55.360
right to receive assistance from governments such as Israel and Ukraine in confronting the Islamic
00:47:01.320
regime. Those governments possess state resources and helping the Iranian people also serves their
00:47:08.180
own national interests while helping Iranians serve theirs. Now ironically, many of the people
00:47:15.360
who now argue against foreign assistance, did exactly the same thing in 1979.
00:47:22.920
Where was Khomeini before the revolution? He was in Iraq. Who was ruling Iraq at the time?
00:47:30.580
Iran's enemy. Now how did Khomeini broadcast messages against the Shah of Iran? Through
00:47:37.040
Iraqi state media. Mahmoud Doei, acting with Khomeini's direct approval, used the facilities
00:47:46.040
of Ba'athist Iraqi radio and television to broadcast propaganda against the Iranian government.
00:47:54.340
Khomeini benefited from Saddam Hussein's resources. There's another point I want to mention as well,
00:48:00.020
but it's a hopeful one. The fall of Assad in Syria demonstrated that dictatorships can collapse
00:48:07.640
precisely when they believe they have completely crushed their opposition.
00:48:13.220
After the Syrian civil war, Assad behaved as though he was invincible. He acted as though
00:48:19.840
he had eliminated all opposition. He believed he had crushed and defeated them. He had been
00:48:26.600
welcomed back into the Arab League and he seemed convinced that his position was secure. And then,
00:48:33.400
within a very short period of time, he fell. If the Islamic regime occupying Iran believes
00:48:40.160
it has permanently suppressed the events of January 8 and 9 of 2026, and if it believes
00:48:47.720
that it has emerged safely from its confrontation with the United States, then it is making the
00:48:53.880
exact same mistake that Bashar al-Assad made. Murad Vaisi concludes his analysis by saying
00:49:03.340
that Bashar al-Assad's experience demonstrated that such confidence in dictatorships can be
00:49:09.800
disastrous because at any moment in time a new wave can emerge unexpectedly and sweep away a
00:49:17.860
dictatorship. And for all we know, we might very well be in that exact same moment right now
00:49:27.560
when it comes to the Iranian people and the Islamic regime occupying Iran.
00:49:36.180
That concludes my translation of Murad Vesey's most recent analysis. Let me know in the comments