Goldie Ghamari - June 05, 2026


EXCLUSIVE： Iran's Regime Is Cornered — And More Dangerous Than Ever ｜ Morad Vaisi Analysis

Topics
Islamic regime ideology stability Iranian regime reform and opposition efforts Islamic regime and Gulf states relations Iranian uprising and foreign support Islamic regime protests
Hosted by
Goldie Ghamari
Mentioned
Morad Vesey Donald Trump Netanyahu Gamal Abdel Nasser Marco Rubio Khomeini Bashar Assad Saddam Hussein Assad Mojtaba Khamenei Hafez Assad Anwar Gargash Hosni Mubarak Reza Pahlavi Mahmoud Doei Anwar Sadat Murad Beysi Muradvesi Shah
IRAN REVOLUTION LIVE： DAY 159 Iran Before 1979： Democracy or Dictatorship？ - PART 3

Episode Stats


Length

50 minutes

Words per minute

124.77

Word count

6,327

Sentence count

394

Harmful content

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

104

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The biggest mistake the West is making right now is believing that the Islamic regime occupying Iran can be negotiated with. Because the regime in Tehran is doing exactly what it's always done: buying time, rebuilding, and waiting for the next opportunity.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 The biggest mistake the West is making right now is believing that the Islamic regime occupying 0.99
00:00:06.340 Iran can be negotiated with. Because the regime in Tehran is doing exactly what it's always done, 0.98
00:00:13.860 buying time, rebuilding, regrouping, and waiting for the next opportunity. The most important
00:00:20.900 intelligence and analysis about what's happening inside occupied Iran isn't coming from CNN,
00:00:27.600 MSNBC, the BBC, or even most Western foreign policy experts. It's coming from Iranians 0.91
00:00:35.640 ourselves. In a new video series that I'm making on The Goldie Show, today I'm bringing you an
00:00:41.500 exclusive translation and analysis from Murad Vaisi, one of the most respected Iranian geopolitical
00:00:49.500 analysts in the entire world, whose content is available almost exclusively in the Persian
00:00:55.920 language. Millions of Iranians both inside and outside of occupied Iran follow him across numerous
00:01:03.600 social media platforms because he has a deep understanding of the Islamic regime, the Iranian
00:01:10.520 opposition movement, regional politics, and the power struggles happening behind the scenes.
00:01:17.320 Most English-speaking audiences almost never hear his information. Most English-speaking audiences
00:01:24.460 never have an opportunity to get the insider perspective and analysis into what's really
00:01:30.180 happening in occupied Iran. Until now. Because I've received Morad Vesi's permission to translate
00:01:37.040 his videos into English and share them with you. In this video, we're diving into a major analysis
00:01:44.800 from Morad Vesi. And what he discusses in his live stream is absolutely critical because it
00:01:51.400 touches on several issues that are shaping the future of Iran, Israel, the United States,
00:01:57.320 the Persian Gulf, and potentially the future stability of the entire Middle East.
00:02:02.700 He talks about the growing divisions among the Persian Gulf Arab states
00:02:06.740 in their approach towards the Islamic regime.
00:02:09.620 He talks about reports that the Islamic regime continues pursuing nuclear weapons
00:02:15.120 despite international pressure.
00:02:16.860 He talks about the ongoing debate inside Washington over whether President Trump will
00:02:22.220 ultimately choose diplomacy or military action. And most importantly, he talks about why the
00:02:28.680 Islamic regime occupying Iran will never voluntarily abandon its core ideology, its 0.85
00:02:36.320 hostility towards the West, its hostility towards Israel, its missile program, or its nuclear 0.92
00:02:43.040 ambitions. Now think about where we are today. We've watched decades of negotiations, sanctions,
00:02:50.600 and diplomatic initiatives, and yet the fundamental nature of the Islamic regime hasn't changed.
00:02:56.740 Their slogans haven't changed. Their ideology hasn't changed. Their goals haven't changed.
00:03:02.440 The Islamic regime occupying Iran still defines itself through its opposition to the United States, 0.95
00:03:09.640 the great Satan, and Israel, the little Satan. And it still views exporting its Islamic revolutionary 0.97
00:03:17.100 ideology as a core mission. And that's not just my analysis. That's exactly the concern being raised
00:03:25.320 by top Iranian geopolitical expert analysts like Morad Vaisi, who have been closely monitoring
00:03:32.220 developments inside occupied Iran every single day for decades. The question everyone is asking
00:03:40.300 right now is simple. Can this Islamic regime be reformed? Can it be contained? Can it be 1.00
00:03:47.280 negotiated into changing its behavior? Or is regime change ultimately the only long-term
00:03:54.680 solution. That's the debate in the West. That's the debate in mainstream media. And that's the
00:04:02.820 debate you're going to hear in today's translated analysis. You're also going to hear something that
00:04:09.660 most Western audiences rarely hear discussed openly. The relationship between the Iranian
00:04:16.280 opposition movement, Prince Reza Pahlavi, Israel, Ukraine, the United States, and the broader
00:04:23.820 international effort to counter the Islamic regime occupying Iran. Morad Vaisi also makes
00:04:30.320 the argument that many Iranians believe international support for the Iranian people
00:04:35.400 in occupied Iran is not only justified, but it's necessary if the Islamic regime occupying Iran
00:04:42.800 is ever going to be removed from power. Now, whether you agree with that position or not, 0.84
00:04:49.120 it's an important perspective to understand because it reflects how millions of Iranians
00:04:55.120 both inside and outside of occupied Iran view the current struggle.
00:05:00.740 As always, my goal here is simple.
00:05:04.260 To bring you exclusive information that most English-speaking audiences never get access to.
00:05:10.900 To translate important Persian language analysis.
00:05:14.460 to give you direct insight into what Iranian experts, dissidents, opposition figures and
00:05:21.660 top analysts are saying. Because if we want to understand where Iran is heading, we need to
00:05:28.220 listen to the people who know the Islamic regime best. And few analysts understand the Islamic
00:05:34.820 regime occupying Iran better than Morad Vesey. I'm Goldie Gamari, former politician and current
00:05:43.660 geopolitical analyst and human rights activist, and you're watching The Goldie Show.
00:05:59.100 So let's get right into it. This is my English translation and breakdown of Morad Veysi's
00:06:05.200 latest analysis, word by word. And I want to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
00:06:11.260 Do you think the Islamic regime can be negotiated with? 0.96
00:06:15.240 Do you think the Islamic regime will eventually obtain nuclear weapons if it survives? 0.95
00:06:20.340 And do you believe the Iranian people will ultimately succeed in overthrowing the Islamic regime? 0.91
00:06:26.580 Now, let's begin.
00:06:30.220 Kuwait's Ministry of Defense has announced that in attacks carried out by the Islamic Republic
00:06:35.540 using missiles and drones against the country,
00:06:38.300 13 missiles and 17 drones were launched on Wednesday alone, a total of 30 missiles and
00:06:44.860 drones, making it one of the largest attacks. They only reported one fatality, an Indian national
00:06:51.680 and 63 injuries. Kuwait has responded by summoning the Islamic Republic's charge d'affaires and
00:06:58.920 expelling two Iranian diplomats. One noteworthy point is that the country with the weakest
00:07:05.140 currency in the world, the Islamic regime, has attacked a country with one of the strongest 0.94
00:07:11.360 currencies in the world, the Kuwaiti dinar. One dinar is worth about three to three and a half 0.78
00:07:17.900 US dollars. It's an extremely powerful currency, reflecting a strong economy. Many Persian Gulf
00:07:25.460 economies are in better condition than that of the Islamic regime. And beyond its disputes with 0.97
00:07:30.480 the United States, Israel, and military issues, this fact itself is a source of resentment for
00:07:36.160 the Islamic regime. Why are these countries doing better than it is? After these attacks,
00:07:42.520 Anwar Gargash, the prominent Emirati diplomat and diplomatic advisor to the President of the UAE,
00:07:49.480 stated that the position and response of Gulf Cooperation Council member states
00:07:54.340 should be unified. However, the reality is that they are not unified. The UAE has taken the
00:08:02.360 toughest stance against the Islamic regime occupying Iran. Of all the countries in the region,
00:08:09.200 the UAE has responded the most aggressively to attacks. It has attacked Lavon Island and struck
00:08:16.160 targets inside Iranian territory in response to actions by the Islamic regime. It has the broadest 0.99
00:08:23.580 cooperation with Israel. Beyond having established diplomatic relations with Israel six years ago and
00:08:30.100 recognizing the state of Israel, it now maintains extensive military, political, and economic ties
00:08:36.520 with Israel. During this recent war, the Israelis deployed air defense systems in the UAE and the
00:08:43.940 UAE has advocated the strongest position against the Islamic regime. The UAE has moved beyond the 0.96
00:08:51.240 era of appeasement. It argues that the Islamic regime must be confronted and that appeasement 0.99
00:08:58.360 does not solve the problem. However, not every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council shares
00:09:05.420 this view. Saudi Arabia has been more cautious in dealing with the Islamic regime. It has responded
00:09:12.620 to some attacks, but not all of them. One reason is that Saudi Arabia's oil exports continue
00:09:19.540 uninterrupted. Around 7 million barrels of oil can be transported through a pipeline that runs
00:09:25.860 from Damom in eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, from where it is exported.
00:09:33.680 Saudi ports on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba remain active. As a result, while shipping through
00:09:41.120 the Persian Gulf has been disrupted due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian shipping has
00:09:46.680 faced difficulties, Gulf states have increasingly routed some of their passenger and commercial
00:09:53.340 traffic through Saudi Arabia. This has allowed the Saudi economy to continue growing, while many
00:10:00.120 others have struggled. Saudi Arabia also differs significantly from the UAE regarding relations
00:10:06.660 with Israel. The UAE maintains normal relations with Israel. However, Saudi Arabia still has not
00:10:14.080 recognize the state of Israel and has stated that it will do so only when a Palestinian state
00:10:20.480 with East Jerusalem as its capital is established. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is not seeking war
00:10:28.540 with Israel as the Islamic regime does, but neither does it have normalized relations like 0.86
00:10:34.800 the UAE does. As a result, Saudi Arabia's position differs from that of the UAE. Saudi Arabia is
00:10:43.040 regarded as the leader of both the Arab world and the Islamic world, which gives its position
00:10:49.320 additional significance. Historically, several countries have claimed leadership of the Arab
00:10:55.640 world, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq. In the 1950s, Egypt was unquestionably the leader of the Arab world
00:11:03.940 because of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Pan-Arabism was essentially founded and led by Nasser.
00:11:11.000 Nasser was a leading anti-Israel figure, and at that time, no Arab country recognized Israel.
00:11:18.580 This was the era of the Arab-Israeli wars, 1948, 1956, and 1967. Although Egypt did not win the
00:11:28.820 1967 war and Nasser resigned, the Egyptian people demanded his return. His influence extended beyond
00:11:37.280 Egypt itself. This was the period in which Egypt and Syria formed the United Arab Republic though
00:11:44.760 it ultimately did not last. During the 1970s even after Nasser's death and Anwar Sadat's rise to
00:11:51.760 the presidency Egypt remained the leader of the Arab world until 1979 when it signed the Camp
00:11:59.020 David Accords. The Arab world reacted strongly against Egypt becoming the first Arab country
00:12:05.780 to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
00:12:09.740 Egypt was expelled from the Arab League,
00:12:12.140 and the League's headquarters was moved from Cairo to Tunis.
00:12:16.900 This situation lasted for several years
00:12:19.420 until reconciliation occurred during the Iran-Iraq War era.
00:12:24.620 Nevertheless, under Hosni Mubarak,
00:12:27.440 Egypt continued to compete with Syria under Hafez al-Assad
00:12:32.260 and Iraq under Saddam Hussein for leadership of the Arab world. Syria eventually fell out of
00:12:39.580 contention due to the devastating decade-long civil war under Bashar al-Assad. Its membership
00:12:46.460 in the Arab League was suspended. War ravaged the country and its economy suffered severe damage.
00:12:53.500 Iraq weakened after Saddam Hussein's era, especially following the Kuwait war and the
00:12:58.900 sanctions that followed. Egypt was weakened by the Arab Spring and would have suffered even more
00:13:05.380 had it not received support from Saudi Arabia. As a result of all these developments and alongside
00:13:12.860 Saudi Arabia's strong economic growth and successful management of Islamic political
00:13:18.820 affairs, Saudi Arabia emerged as both the leader of the Arab world and the leader of the Islamic
00:13:25.520 world. It now possesses tremendous influence. Therefore, when Saudi Arabia says it still does
00:13:33.160 not recognize Israel, that matters. Likewise, whatever position Saudi Arabia takes toward
00:13:40.560 the Islamic regime carries significant weight. Among the six Gulf Cooperation Council states,
00:13:47.620 Bahrain is a small country but hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet. Bahrain's domestic and foreign
00:13:55.580 policies differ somewhat from those of its neighbors. Its internal security and political
00:14:01.380 stability are heavily tied to Saudi Arabia. During the Arab Spring in 2011, when Bahrain's
00:14:08.780 monarchy appeared close to collapse, Saudi forces intervened to support it. However, in foreign
00:14:15.820 policy, Bahrain today is much closer to the UAE than to Saudi Arabia, because Bahrain has recognized
00:14:23.620 the state of Israel, just like the UAE, while Saudi Arabia has not. Because each of these
00:14:29.480 countries has a different relationship with the Islamic regime occupying Iran. Not all of them 0.59
00:14:35.680 are like the UAE. And Kuwait, despite now being under the heaviest attacks, historically had few
00:14:44.320 major disputes with the Islamic regime. The Islamic regime is attacking Kuwait because three U.S. 0.75
00:14:50.680 military bases are located there and because it believes Kuwait is an easier target. It can attack 0.98
00:14:57.360 Kuwait from Khoramshar, Abaddon or from Iraq. At the same time, the Islamic regime believes that 0.92
00:15:04.680 unlike the UAE or Saudi Arabia, which have responded to some attacks, Kuwait is unlikely
00:15:10.980 to retaliate, at least for now. That's why the Islamic regime treats Kuwait differently. 0.90
00:15:17.740 One final country is Qatar. The Emiratis have an interesting description of Qatar.
00:15:24.760 They say that Qatar is both a victim and a mediator. On one hand, the Islamic Republic 0.91
00:15:31.380 launches missiles at Qatar. On the other hand, Qatar steps forward as a mediator rather than
00:15:38.280 confronting the Islamic regime. The reality is that Qatar's strategic position is that it benefits 0.90
00:15:45.280 from the Islamic regime's survival. Why? Because of natural gas. Iran and Qatar share a massive 0.93
00:15:54.080 gas field. The longer the Islamic regime remains under sanctions and lacks access to advanced 0.81
00:16:00.500 energy technology, the less it can exploit its portion of that shared field. This benefits 0.98
00:16:08.260 Qatar, and for that reason, Qatar wants the Islamic regime occupying Iran to remain in place. 0.86
00:16:15.940 Even though the Islamic regime attacked Qatari gas facilities and reportedly reduced production 0.91
00:16:22.420 by about 20%, Qatar still sees the Islamic regime's continued existence as advantageous. 0.99
00:16:30.500 The final country is Oman. Oman maintained good relations with Iran during the Shah's era 0.89
00:16:37.880 because the Shah helped Oman defeat communist insurgents in Dofar. After the revolution,
00:16:45.880 Oman continued those relations and frequently served as a mediator between the United States
00:16:51.220 and the Islamic regime occupying Iran. However, recent attacks by the Islamic regime against Oman
00:16:58.520 demonstrate that even Oman is not immune. Therefore, among these six countries, not all 0.96
00:17:06.260 share the UAE's position. When it comes to military responses, however, the countries that have
00:17:12.440 responded have been the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The countries closest to Israel have been the UAE
00:17:19.740 and Bahrain. And the countries historically closest to the Islamic regime occupying Iran 0.61
00:17:26.020 have been Oman and Qatar. And the country currently under direct attack is Kuwait.
00:17:34.080 Each faces a different situation. Bloomberg has published a report stating that the Islamic regime
00:17:41.680 is secretly attempting to build a nuclear bomb, citing several informed sources and data from the
00:17:48.500 International Atomic Energy Agency. According to the report, the Islamic regime is continuing
00:17:55.360 efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The IAEA has stated that since the war began,
00:18:02.040 it no longer has access to Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Whenever inspectors lose
00:18:08.460 access to such material, it becomes dangerous because the Islamic regime could potentially 0.99
00:18:14.520 use it to build a nuclear weapon. Morad Vesey's belief is that after the 12-day war and the
00:18:22.000 subsequent 40-day period, if the Americans give the regime an opportunity, the Islamic regime will
00:18:28.940 move towards building a nuclear bomb. If the Islamic regime occupying Iran concludes that 0.79
00:18:35.620 the United States is no longer planning to take military action against it, then during that 0.97
00:18:41.220 period it will proceed with developing nuclear weapons. The Israelis have a more realistic 0.96
00:18:47.800 assessment. They believe the Islamic regime will continue pursuing nuclear weapons and therefore 0.96
00:18:54.960 argue that negotiations should not be trusted and that military action should be taken instead.
00:19:02.360 The United States, however, has not yet reached that conclusion. The overall message we hear from
00:19:08.820 Marco Rubio and Donald Trump is that they believe Operation Economic Fury has concluded.
00:19:16.420 Today, Rubio made additional statements saying that the United States does not intend to continue
00:19:22.460 sustained attacks inside Iranian territory aimed at weakening the Islamic regime's military
00:19:28.580 capabilities because the operation has ended. Trump also spoke and said that in that part of
00:19:35.500 the world, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, the concept of a ceasefire is different.
00:19:40.800 He described it as a situation where firing continues, but at a lower intensity.
00:19:47.600 He also repeated his usual statements about obtaining the uranium,
00:19:51.580 defeating the Islamic regime's ambitions, and similar themes.
00:19:56.060 Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of limiting Trump's war powers.
00:20:03.340 However, this measure must still pass the Senate.
00:20:07.200 Moradvesi, in his translation, says that he doubts that in the end,
00:20:11.240 President Trump would accept such restrictions even if they were passed.
00:20:16.040 He could veto them.
00:20:17.380 An overriding of veto would require a two-thirds majority in Congress,
00:20:21.900 which Moradvesi considers unlikely.
00:20:25.000 His view is that if Trump decides to launch another attack,
00:20:29.600 Congress will probably not be able to stop him.
00:20:32.140 At the moment, however, President Trump himself appears to be divided 50-50 between resuming military action and reaching an agreement with the Islamic regime.
00:20:44.300 At present, neither option can be said to have a greater chance of success.
00:20:50.540 One day, the news suggests the likelihood of an attack has decreased and prospects for an agreement have improved.
00:20:58.080 The next day, the opposite is reported.
00:21:00.840 too much attention should not be paid to these fluctuations. The possibility of an agreement
00:21:07.820 and the possibility of military action remain roughly equal. At the same time,
00:21:14.320 the United States is waiting for a response from the Islamic regime. Within the Islamic regime 0.93
00:21:20.940 itself, there are divisions regarding how to respond to the Americans and what consequences
00:21:27.140 that respond could bring. If they do not reach an agreement, could the United States attack?
00:21:33.660 One of the most important questions currently facing the Islamic regime occupying Iran
00:21:39.240 is whether a miscalculation could have severe consequences for the regime. That miscalculation
00:21:47.780 concerns this particular question. Have the Americans truly lost interest in war? Because
00:21:55.820 As based on Rubio's statements, President Trump's remarks and congressional actions,
00:22:01.520 the Islamic regime may conclude that the United States is no longer interested in military
00:22:07.600 conflict.
00:22:09.600 If the Islamic regime reaches that conclusion, it may decide to stand firm, refuse to compromise
00:22:16.980 and reject concessions in negotiations because it believes the Americans are not willing
00:22:23.080 to fight.
00:22:24.940 That's one possible calculation.
00:22:28.060 Another possible calculation is that, despite Rubio's and Trump's apparent reluctance
00:22:34.060 to attack, if the Islamic regime adopts a sufficiently hard-line position, the United
00:22:40.660 States could suddenly surprise everyone and launch military action.
00:22:46.320 The Islamic regime occupying Iran remains uncertain about whether an attack will occur. 0.76
00:22:52.980 Now, what effect does all of this have on the Islamic regime?
00:22:56.720 This brings Morad Vesey to the main point that he wants to discuss.
00:23:02.100 His belief is that the Islamic regime will not retreat before the Iranian people,
00:23:08.180 nor will it retreat before the United States. 0.78
00:23:11.360 The Islamic regime will not accept the demands of the Iranian people unless the people overthrow it. 0.93
00:23:18.180 Likewise, the Islamic regime will not accept the international order unless the United States decisively breaks its power. 0.87
00:23:28.400 The Islamic regime occupying Iran will not fundamentally compromise with either the Iranian people or the United States. 0.75
00:23:38.580 Now, Morad Vesey is not talking about limited tactical agreements.
00:23:42.040 he says that strategically the islamic regime will not abandon its anti-americanism ideology
00:23:50.020 it will not abandon its hostility towards israel it will not abandon its missile program and it
00:23:56.860 will certainly not abandon its nuclear program it will not abandon support for its proxy forces 0.52
00:24:04.200 either if the islamic regime can close the strait of hormos it will if the islamic regime can 0.66
00:24:11.360 destabilize the Bab-ul-Mandeb Strait, it will do so as well. Fundamentally, the Islamic regime
00:24:19.080 will never back down. The solution, in Murad Veysi's view, is that just as the Iranian people 0.87
00:24:27.140 have stood up to seek the Islamic regime's overthrow, the world should stand with the
00:24:32.840 Iranian people. Prince Riza Pahlavi has repeatedly said that the world should help itself by helping
00:24:40.080 the Iranian people. The Iranian people will eventually overthrow the regime sooner or later.
00:24:48.280 However, if the Islamic regime survives, the world will become even less stable. If the Islamic regime 1.00
00:24:56.100 falls, the world will become more stable. Therefore, Europe, the region, the broader 0.99
00:25:02.640 international community, and the United States should act not only for the sake of the Iranian
00:25:08.440 people, but also for the sake of their own citizens and their own national security interests. 0.69
00:25:16.580 If the Islamic regime can launch missiles at Israel and neighboring countries today, 0.98
00:25:21.300 then it will undoubtedly seek the ability to launch missiles at the United States tomorrow.
00:25:27.460 Now today, inside of occupied Iran, a group of members of parliament reportedly wrote a letter
00:25:34.560 to Moshtaba Khamenei, calling for the range of the Islamic regime's missiles to be increased
00:25:41.520 so that they could reach Donald Trump's office. Think about that. Islamic regime elected officials 0.69
00:25:49.820 in their parliament are demanding that the Islamic regime build missiles that can reach
00:25:57.760 all the way to President Trump's office in the White House. That's the nature of the Islamic 1.00
00:26:04.340 regime occupying Iran. If it believes it can survive it will not only fire missiles at countries 1.00
00:26:12.040 in the region and at Israel again but it will eventually target Europe as well. It would target
00:26:18.680 Berlin, Paris, London. It would also seek the capability to strike Washington. It would seek 0.50
00:26:28.500 the capability to strike New York. This, in Morad Vesey's view, is the character and nature of the
00:26:36.220 Islamic regime. Now the Iranian people in Israel understand this reality very well. They believe
00:26:44.200 the Islamic regime must be overthrown. The United States and Europe, however, have not yet fully
00:26:50.140 reached that conclusion. Europeans often fear that if they provoke the Islamic regime, it might
00:26:56.720 eventually target Berlin, Paris or London. Morad Vesi's response is that whether they provoke it
00:27:04.180 or not, if the Islamic regime survives long enough, it will eventually pursue those capabilities 0.85
00:27:10.020 anyway. If the Islamic regime survives, one day it will seek missile confrontation with the United 0.86
00:27:16.740 States. If it survives, it will build a nuclear bomb and it will build missiles capable of carrying 1.00
00:27:24.560 that bomb. The assessment of the Iranian people and Israel that the Islamic regime must be removed 0.86
00:27:32.020 is, in Murad Vaisi's view, the correct assessment. Today, Netanyahu stated that the Iranian people 1.00
00:27:41.100 should be helped in their effort to overthrow their government. Netanyahu said the Iranian
00:27:47.580 people should receive assistance in bringing down their regime. That is precisely what the vast 1.00
00:27:53.880 majority of Iranians want. Regarding his differences with President Trump, Netanyahu said
00:28:00.380 that he generally agrees with Trump on Iran, but that there are occasionally tactical disagreements.
00:28:07.300 According to Netanyahu, Trump believes the Islamic regime's uranium enrichment issue
00:28:13.020 can still be resolved through negotiations. Netanyahu said that Trump should be given time.
00:28:20.120 Regarding decisions about escalating tensions or using military means to keep the Strait of Hormuz
00:28:26.100 open, Netanyahu stated that he would leave those decisions to President Trump. He emphasized that
00:28:33.060 Israel is prepared. This brings Morad Vesey to another topic, the necessity of cooperation
00:28:40.940 between opponents of the Islamic regime and cooperation between the Iranian people,
00:28:47.380 Ukraine, and Israel against the Islamic regime occupying Iran.
00:28:54.400 Morad Vaisi believes the Iranian people have every right to take advantage of any international 0.68
00:29:00.860 opportunity available to help overthrow the Islamic regime, just as the Islamic regime 0.70
00:29:06.840 uses every international opportunity to ensure its own survival. Now that does not mean, 0.92
00:29:13.400 and Morad Vesey has said this many times, that the Iranian people are waiting for others to act
00:29:19.180 on their behalf. The Iranian people did their part in 2009. They did their part in 2017.
00:29:27.160 They did their part in 2019 and they did their part in 2022. And of course, they did their part
00:29:34.920 in 2026. These are not people who simply sit and wait for foreigners. The Iranian people take
00:29:44.020 action themselves. However, there comes a point where the regime possesses weapons and organized 0.79
00:29:50.920 state power and at that stage governments must confront governments. At that point in Morad
00:29:58.360 Vasi's opinion. Iranians need assistance from countries such as Israel and Ukraine. And Iranians
00:30:06.180 should benefit from the kind of support that sovereign states can provide in the struggle
00:30:10.560 to overthrow the Islamic regime occupying them. Iranians should benefit from the assistance that
00:30:17.500 governments such as Ukraine and Israel can provide in the effort to overthrow the Islamic regime.
00:30:23.060 Of course, they do not provide such assistance out of charity. 0.88
00:30:28.400 Ukraine is being attacked by the Islamic regime through Russia 0.69
00:30:32.240 in the form of drones and other military assistance used against the Ukrainian people. 0.75
00:30:38.480 The Islamic regime also represents an existential threat to Israel. 0.93
00:30:43.020 It openly seeks Israel's destruction. 0.98
00:30:45.840 Therefore, both Israel and the Ukraine have national interests 0.86
00:30:50.820 that motivate them to help the Iranian people. Likewise, the Iranian people can accept assistance
00:30:57.140 from Ukraine and Israel because it serves the Iranian people's national interests as well.
00:31:04.420 These are sovereign governments. The capabilities available to governments differ greatly from those
00:31:10.860 available to political groups, private organizations, or individuals. Governments possess diplomatic
00:31:17.200 influence. Governments have ministries and institutions with significant resources and
00:31:22.760 expertise. Governments have capabilities that can strengthen the Iranian opposition.
00:31:29.840 So according to Monad Vesey, the question is this. If the Iranian people seek assistance from Israel
00:31:36.560 or Ukraine against the Islamic regime, is there anything wrong with that? And in his view,
00:31:42.880 no, there's nothing wrong with that at all. Those countries would act in pursuit of their
00:31:49.800 own national interests and the Iranian people would do the same. More broadly, is it inherently
00:31:56.340 wrong to seek foreign assistance in overthrowing a dictatorial and oppressive regime? Again,
00:32:03.800 Morad Vesey responds no. History provides many examples. The important condition is that Iran's
00:32:11.940 right to determine its own future and its own political system must remain intact. Many countries
00:32:20.300 achieved freedom with foreign assistance. Many received military support from outside powers.
00:32:27.860 Take France as an example. By 1944, France had been occupied by Nazi Germany for four years.
00:32:35.940 The French resistance fought bravely and continuously throughout that period.
00:32:40.260 yet in the end foreign assistance was necessary to liberate France. Now that does not mean the
00:32:47.620 French resistance was illegitimate or unimportant. Likewise, Iranians are not abandoning their own
00:32:55.220 national uprising. The national movement remains the foundation of the Iranian people's struggle
00:33:02.160 against the Islamic regime. The fundamental source of the strength of the Iranian people
00:33:08.420 is their own national uprising. We witnessed that strength on January 8 and 9, when millions
00:33:17.020 and millions of people participated. The leadership of this national movement has become established.
00:33:24.980 The Lion and Son Revolution is led by none other than His Royal Highness Mirza Pahlavi.
00:33:31.420 That movement is the cornerstone and foundation of the Iranian National Revolution.
00:33:38.280 However, Iranians still have the right to seek assistance from foreign governments,
00:33:43.900 and historically, this has been entirely normal. 0.97
00:33:48.380 On June 6, 1944, American, British, Canadian, Australian, and Free French forces landed in Normandy.
00:33:58.560 Only after that landing was Germany defeated and France.
00:34:03.260 Recognizing that fact does not diminish the sacrifices of the French people and the French resistance.
00:34:10.160 Everyone understands that without American assistance on June 6, 1944,
00:34:15.740 whose anniversary will occur in a few days,
00:34:20.040 France would not have been liberated.
00:34:22.140 Belgium would not have been liberated.
00:34:24.300 The Netherlands would not have been liberated.
00:34:26.140 Luxembourg would not have been liberated. Even Germany itself would not ultimately
00:34:32.800 have been liberated and freed from its Nazi rule. American and British soldiers entered Germany
00:34:41.140 and Germany was liberated. That same pattern can be seen elsewhere. Japan was liberated from
00:34:48.980 militarist rule with foreign assistance. South Korea also benefited from foreign support.
00:34:55.080 Today, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea are advanced democracies with advanced economies.
00:35:04.240 All four countries benefited from foreign assistance at critical moments in their history.
00:35:12.140 Therefore, when some people claim that democracy can never arrive in the backpacks of foreign soldiers,
00:35:20.140 Morad Vaisi considers that an overly simplistic and meaningless slogan.
00:35:26.060 History contains numerous examples of dictatorships being overthrown with foreign assistance.
00:35:32.280 The Islamic regime occupying Iran benefits when people believe that foreign assistance is inherently illegitimate,
00:35:41.240 which is why that argument is often promoted.
00:35:44.120 Does this mean, as critics sometimes claim, that Iranians are simply waiting for foreigners to save them?
00:35:51.740 Absolutely not.
00:35:53.340 Once again, Morad Vaisi repeats, 0.78
00:35:56.120 However, Iranians also have the right to seek outside assistance.
00:36:13.320 And Iranians should seek it from countries that are prepared, capable, and willing to help
00:36:18.500 because their national interests align with the Iranian people's interests.
00:36:25.140 Some countries may be able to offer short-term support.
00:36:28.940 Others may be willing to provide long-term support.
00:36:32.440 Israel, for example, may be prepared to provide long-term support. 0.63
00:36:37.700 Israel's fundamental interest is the overthrow of the Islamic regime. 0.97
00:36:41.800 This is because if the Islamic regime develops advanced missiles and nuclear weapons, 0.98
00:36:49.120 Israel sees itself as being directly threatened. 0.72
00:36:52.840 Across Israel's political spectrum, there is broad agreement that the Islamic regime must be removed. 1.00
00:36:59.040 And for that reason, Iranians can count on Israeli support over the long term. 0.98
00:37:04.820 Israel regards the Islamic regime occupying Iran as its own problem as well. 0.99
00:37:10.720 During both the 12-day war and the subsequent 40-day period, Israel maintained a consistent
00:37:16.900 policy. Israeli politicians and military officials repeatedly stated that they would help the Iranian
00:37:24.760 people in efforts to bring down the regime. Israeli assistance has often been precise and
00:37:31.220 targeted in ways that many Iranians appreciate. When specific Islamic regime officials or
00:37:37.660 instruments of repression were targeted, many Iranians felt encouraged. Ukraine is another 0.99
00:37:44.860 possible partner. Now at the moment, Ukraine can be counted on. Whether that support will continue
00:37:51.500 over the long term is less certain. The Russia-Ukraine war may eventually end and Ukraine's
00:37:58.520 priorities could change. And at that point, Ukraine may no longer be willing to provide
00:38:04.080 the same level of support. At present, however, Morad Vaisi believes because the Islamic regime 0.91
00:38:11.380 occupying Iran supplies drones and other military assistance to Russia for use against Ukrainians,
00:38:19.060 Ukraine and the Iranian people have common interests. Now how long that alignment will last,
00:38:25.740 according to Morad Vaisi, remains uncertain. In international politics, no country remains
00:38:32.800 permanently aligned with another. Every country always pursues its own national interests.
00:38:40.920 For a period of time, those interests may coincide with another country's interests and later
00:38:47.080 they may diverge. Morad Vesi's belief is that opponents of the Islamic regime need to think
00:38:55.100 in more detailed and strategic ways. By strategic, he means there must be a strong
00:39:02.020 determination to succeed. And by detailed, he means that in different sectors and fields,
00:39:08.560 efforts should be made to secure assistance from countries such as Ukraine and Israel.
00:39:14.260 And once again, Morad Vesey emphasizes, this does not replace the Iranian national uprising.
00:39:21.460 And he repeats this because critics often claim that Iranians are relying entirely
00:39:27.340 on foreign help and that is simply not true. The primary source of power for the Iranian
00:39:35.500 national lion and son revolution comes from the Iranian people. The Iranian people have never 1.00
00:39:42.820 waited for foreigners before launching their protests. They did not wait for outsiders during 0.98
00:39:48.560 previous uprisings and today while the people remain the foundation of the movement, Iranians
00:39:55.300 can and should still benefit from foreign assistance. So why should this point be
00:40:01.900 emphasized now? Well, that's because Morad Vesey believes that sooner or later Iranian people will 0.94
00:40:09.160 rise up again with these prices, with this inflation, with inflation running into the 0.53
00:40:17.520 hundreds of percents. Iranian society will rise again soon. No one can prevent that. And at 0.98
00:40:24.640 present, there's an important question circulating within society. A massive uprising took place
00:40:32.720 on January 8 and 9. The Islamic regime responded with killings and repression. And now the Iranian
00:40:40.740 people ask, if another uprising occurs and the Islamic regime kills people again, should people
00:40:48.080 still rise up. Murad Vaisi's answer is that Iranians, we Iranians as a nation, must find
00:40:57.120 ways to overcome the Islamic regime's apparatus of repression. The energy and anger of the Iranian
00:41:05.600 nation should be directed towards moments when the likelihood of success is higher. And in his view,
00:41:12.560 That means responding to a call from Prince Rizal Pahlavi when conditions are favorable.
00:41:20.780 The objective should be to maximize the chances of success while minimizing harm to the Iranian people.
00:41:28.560 That is Murad Beysi's belief.
00:41:31.720 However, society does not necessarily move according to his beliefs or anyone else's.
00:41:38.000 Society follows its own dynamics.
00:41:40.420 And if conditions become unbearable and people decide to rise up again, they will do so.
00:41:47.480 They will not ask for anyone's permission.
00:41:50.840 There's a difference between a possible uprising and an ideal uprising.
00:41:57.320 And Moradvesi explains, 0.98
00:41:59.260 an ideal uprising is one that occurs after Iranians have found effective ways
00:42:04.860 to overcome the Islamic regime's machinery of repression.
00:42:08.660 An ideal uprising is organized, coordinated, called at the right moment, and has a high probability of success while minimizing casualties.
00:42:19.160 That is what Morad Vesi considers desirable.
00:42:23.120 However, actual uprisings are not controlled by analysts, commentators, or even by Prince Reza Pahlavi himself.
00:42:31.660 because if economic pressure continues to increase especially through inflation and rising prices
00:42:38.900 people may rise up on their own initiative. Now some people have commented saying don't encourage
00:42:45.920 people to rise up the conditions are not ready. Muradvesi says he's not encouraging people to rise
00:42:52.280 up his belief is that an ideal uprising occurs when the conditions for success are favorable
00:42:59.020 It occurs when His Royal Highness Reza Pahlavi issues a call, when the power of the nation can bring millions of people into the streets together, when the chances of success are high, and when the people can avoid unnecessary harm.
00:43:15.300 In Murad Vesey's opinion, that is when the Iranian nation should concentrate its energy. 0.65
00:43:21.740 The Iranian people's anger, which is justified, and their national hatred towards the Islamic regime, should be preserved for that moment. 0.79
00:43:32.780 But ultimately, this isn't in anyone's hands, because if society decides to rise up, Iranians will not ask anyone for permission.
00:43:41.620 The amount of anger building within the Iranian society is enormous. At any moment, 0.80
00:43:48.340 another uprising could occur. Inflation is especially important in this regard because
00:43:54.260 the dramatic rise in food prices is occurring at such a rapid pace that it is fueling the next
00:44:02.420 uprising at the same rate. Economic dissatisfaction, particularly dissatisfaction caused by food
00:44:10.020 inflation is among the most explosive forms of social unrest anywhere in the world. No social
00:44:18.700 grievance ignites faster than inflation and rising food prices. It's like gasoline. It can instantly
00:44:27.620 create a massive fire. And if this is the direction in which the Iranian society is moving, what 1.00
00:44:35.360 should political activists do? Well first, when confronting the Islamic regime, Iranians must put 0.89
00:44:43.060 an end to the divisions between various groups. Against the Islamic regime, all Iranians must 0.94
00:44:51.340 stand together and all opponents of the Islamic regime who genuinely want the regime gone should 0.92
00:44:57.400 be united. When one of our loved ones stood in the streets protesting and bullets were fired at them,
00:45:03.780 the Islamic regime did not stop to ask whether that person supported so-and-so or so-and-so before killing them.
00:45:13.140 When one wounded protester fell to the ground and another person rushed to help,
00:45:17.860 the Islamic regime did not ask whether the person providing help supported King Erzapahlavi or not before shooting them as well.
00:45:26.760 inside the country inside occupied iran during those massive protests on january 7 8 and 9
00:45:34.500 the iranian people did not concern themselves with such distinctions therefore those of us outside
00:45:41.580 have a responsibility to remain united against the islamic regime to the greatest extent possible
00:45:48.100 and set aside these disagreements because we can settle those disputes later through the ballot box 0.60
00:45:54.660 after the Islamic regime is gone. And removing the Islamic regime is the first task. The second 0.82
00:46:03.280 task is to protect the achievements of the Iranian people. We Iranians must not allow anyone to 1.00
00:46:11.400 undermine the significance of the mass uprising of the Iranian people on January 8 and 9, which
00:46:19.140 has become a powerful force. We must not allow anyone to undermine the leadership role of His
00:46:26.920 Royal Highness Reza Pahlavi during the transitional period. We must not allow the Islamic regime and 0.99
00:46:34.440 its agents to weaken that leadership. And we must continue moving forward by finding ways to 0.81
00:46:41.540 overcome the Islamic regime's machinery of repression, something that Murad Vaisi has
00:46:46.880 discussed extensively in the past. Today, Murad Vesi repeats that the Iranian people have every
00:46:55.360 right to receive assistance from governments such as Israel and Ukraine in confronting the Islamic 0.93
00:47:01.320 regime. Those governments possess state resources and helping the Iranian people also serves their
00:47:08.180 own national interests while helping Iranians serve theirs. Now ironically, many of the people
00:47:15.360 who now argue against foreign assistance, did exactly the same thing in 1979.
00:47:22.920 Where was Khomeini before the revolution? He was in Iraq. Who was ruling Iraq at the time?
00:47:30.580 Iran's enemy. Now how did Khomeini broadcast messages against the Shah of Iran? Through
00:47:37.040 Iraqi state media. Mahmoud Doei, acting with Khomeini's direct approval, used the facilities
00:47:46.040 of Ba'athist Iraqi radio and television to broadcast propaganda against the Iranian government.
00:47:54.340 Khomeini benefited from Saddam Hussein's resources. There's another point I want to mention as well,
00:48:00.020 but it's a hopeful one. The fall of Assad in Syria demonstrated that dictatorships can collapse
00:48:07.640 precisely when they believe they have completely crushed their opposition.
00:48:13.220 After the Syrian civil war, Assad behaved as though he was invincible. He acted as though
00:48:19.840 he had eliminated all opposition. He believed he had crushed and defeated them. He had been
00:48:26.600 welcomed back into the Arab League and he seemed convinced that his position was secure. And then,
00:48:33.400 within a very short period of time, he fell. If the Islamic regime occupying Iran believes 0.99
00:48:40.160 it has permanently suppressed the events of January 8 and 9 of 2026, and if it believes 0.94
00:48:47.720 that it has emerged safely from its confrontation with the United States, then it is making the
00:48:53.880 exact same mistake that Bashar al-Assad made. Murad Vaisi concludes his analysis by saying
00:49:03.340 that Bashar al-Assad's experience demonstrated that such confidence in dictatorships can be
00:49:09.800 disastrous because at any moment in time a new wave can emerge unexpectedly and sweep away a
00:49:17.860 dictatorship. And for all we know, we might very well be in that exact same moment right now
00:49:27.560 when it comes to the Iranian people and the Islamic regime occupying Iran.
00:49:36.180 That concludes my translation of Murad Vesey's most recent analysis. Let me know in the comments
00:49:42.600 if you appreciated and enjoyed this analysis.
00:49:46.700 And if you find this beneficial and useful,
00:49:49.700 I'm more than happy to continue translating
00:49:52.160 Morad Vesey's exclusive insider information
00:49:56.240 so that you can also get a sneak peek
00:49:59.580 into what's really happening in occupied Iran.
00:50:03.700 Let me know in the comments what you think.
00:50:06.280 I'm Goldie Gamari, and now you know.
00:50:12.600 We'll be right back.