00:29:01.860so anyways but but just seeing it here is like really random yeah i mean go ahead
00:29:08.820so we have another news interesting news in the uae in stores they have replaced the islamic
00:29:15.740republic flag with the lion and sun flag yeah look at this so guys the uae has removed the
00:29:23.280flag of the islamic republic from stores and places with any mention of iran and replace it
00:29:30.180with the lion and sun flag and said this person is saying i never thought the day would come when
00:29:35.780i'd feel close to the uae i mean this is a big deal this is a this is a policy decision right
00:29:42.860this is a policy decision um i mean the uae has uh you know one of the countries that's been the
00:29:48.920most attacked by the Islamic regime. So this is a very clear policy statement. And I'm glad. This
00:29:57.460is fantastic. We need to see more of this. We need to see more of that beautiful flag all around the
00:30:01.840world. Yes. However, they do need to change. This is apple red. I think they mean red apple.
00:30:08.680But it's OK. I mean, grocery store. I'm not going to get into that. But OK. So now let's go to the
00:30:15.740actual interview that uh president trump was referring to so um so when president trump said
00:30:21.580highly great job by highly respected navy commander kirk lippold so basically like guys so what
00:30:28.380president trump means when he he posts this is basically what he's saying is everyone should
00:30:35.100watch that interview because that interview is you know is what president trump might be thinking or
00:30:43.100considering or things like that right so now let's go to this interview it's four minutes long from
00:30:48.980yesterday kirk lepold is a military analyst and retired u.s navy commander of the uss coal kirk
00:30:55.240the briefing today for the commander-in-chief about additional options what do you think's
00:31:03.220going to happen here well i think when you look at it jesse the president always considers options
00:31:10.420And I think at the end of the day, Admiral Cooper sat down and said, Mr. President, here are the options we have to strike the final blow if necessary.
00:31:20.100Because at this point, Iran is backed into a corner.0.87
00:31:24.000The reality of it is the Ayatollah doesn't matter anymore.
00:31:28.080The IRGC has taken over the government, the military, the economy.
01:15:00.000Amaya Tusi and the Islamic Republic of Iran are desperate to prevent the latest round of strikes in Iran.
01:15:08.780They have sent a message to the Americans via the Pakistanis.
01:15:12.020There are phone calls happening right now as we speak, basically begging the Americans not to resume the strikes again.
01:15:18.700And also we have more mysterious explosions across Tehran and other major cities.
01:15:26.680We're going to show you a couple of photos that we have.
01:15:30.400And also there's a lot happening when it comes to the U.S. military preparing for the potential resumption of the strikes, or perhaps even more than just strikes.
01:15:42.320But we're going to give you guys all the updates.
01:15:43.660First, we're going to talk about what's actually happening with the United States and, of course, these so-called ceasefire talks.
01:15:53.180Now, Commander Admiral Brad Cooper has now presented President Trump.
01:15:59.060He's done a full briefing for the White House and we have a number of options on the table now.
01:16:04.660Of course, we don't know the details, but according to Central Command, we have what we call a final blow strategy.
01:16:12.840with a number of options, including targeting not just the military assets in Iran,
01:16:19.220but also the leadership, the political and military leadership, as well as the infrastructure in Iran.
01:17:56.640The President was speaking, but I'm trying to double-check the latest on this.
01:18:02.320Okay, we will go to the President shortly.
01:18:03.980but there are a couple of statements coming out as well but let's talk about what the UAE are
01:18:10.000actually doing because they've essentially declared oil war on Iran anyway a couple of
01:18:15.060days ago as we reported and before we get to what the Arabs are also up to and don't forget the
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01:18:52.660to our streaming platform. Now, let's talk about the Emiratis. This is where it gets0.79
01:18:58.020quite interesting because of everything that's happened over the last few days.
01:19:01.300So, the United Arab Emirates have now ordered their citizens to leave Iran immediately,
01:19:08.100but they've also added two more countries, that includes Lebanon and Iraq.
01:19:14.580One of the main reasons for this is because the Emiratis know what's about to happen,
01:19:19.140and they know that this time round, if the IRGC are to retaliate, or perhaps there is a possibility
01:19:27.220on paper that the irgc might do a pre-emptive attack before the americans or the israelis
01:19:32.340start so the emiratis know that this time the iranian regime might not just target civilian
01:19:40.020areas in dubai or abidabi they might actually start targeting them in iran they might get
01:19:45.620arrested they might get be accused of being spies for the uae or for mossad for example
01:19:50.820so everybody needs to leave iran immediately but there's also the situation with the lebanon and
01:19:56.580iraq there are already clashes happening in iraq and that's the irjc launching attacks on the western
01:20:03.220parts of the country east eastern parts of the country but this clearly indicates that we are to
01:20:09.860expect a multi-front war again but perhaps even more escalated the united arab emirates they seem
01:20:16.980to become a very very brave in this fight because not only they have now left opec the oil cartel
01:20:27.220not only they've also warned their citizens to leave Iran immediately, but they're also poking
01:20:32.340the bear. This is what they're doing now. This is fascinating. The UAE have now removed the Islamic0.58
01:20:37.700Republic flag in their shops, in their stores across the country, and they've now replaced
01:20:43.700it with the actual real Iranian flag, the Lion and Sun. Now obviously for the Islamic Republic,
01:20:52.740even seeing this lion and sun flag will basically trigger them and they will treat you as not just0.79
01:20:59.540the enemy of the islamic republic there is a fatwa if you use this flag you are the enemy of
01:21:06.420Allah basically that's what they say the enemy of Allah and your crime will be against humanity0.85
01:21:13.220if you use this flag so we now have a country right next door to Iran that is using the lion0.97
01:21:18.740on some flag so you can see what's going to happen now the emiratis seem to be quite confident now so0.74
01:21:26.020clearly they have a bit of backing from obviously both israel and the united states while the islamic
01:21:33.140republic have gone to the pakistanis to beg the americans not to hit them this is the third time
01:21:37.940they've been begging this is what's happening in the region from the us to europe from europe
01:21:44.500to the middle east massive air bridge and military logistics equipment and personnel
01:21:50.980from the united states are being transferred into the region now while we had last night
01:21:59.700um admiral cooper general kane and others briefing the president and basically presenting
01:22:07.700him with a number of options on the table again they call it the final blow strategy
01:22:14.500I think at this point, if the Americans publicly say we are going to do a limited strikes, the Islamic Republic are not going to see that as limited.0.72
01:22:24.020And they're going to basically retaliate. So we're just going to go on for another few weeks or a few days or a few months, whatever is going to happen.0.76
01:22:30.700But there was also a technical problem in the United States, and that was the power of the legislative branch and how Congress, essentially a Senate,
01:22:40.380could stop the American president on resuming the war but there is a
01:22:45.960technicality so there is a window and that window has already been expired so
01:22:51.660the White House on a technical level have considered the war in Iran that
01:22:57.420started over two months ago they considered that war over so this way
01:23:03.360they don't have to ask for authorization from the politicians in the United
01:23:09.060states they can just start a new war essentially so a lot of people are worried about saying oh
01:23:14.340on a technical level constitutionally the u.s president will have to ask permission
01:23:18.980if he wants to extend the powers the war powers but actually we now have a loophole because the
01:23:26.020window has now been expired and the war is over and now we have the u.s military mobilizing more
01:23:32.900troops and more military equipment to the region and we also have the islamic republic being fully
01:23:38.340prepared now according to themselves in the capital tonight and last night and the night
01:23:45.140before we've had the air defense systems in iran being tested they've been doing a lot of drills
01:53:13.540But his head still is active and sharp as it's always been.
01:53:16.640He's a very intelligent, introspective man.
01:53:18.740What happened to the Shah, I think, could only be interpreted in that part of the world and other parts of the world as well, is that it is dangerous to be a friend of the United States, and it may pay to be an enemy.
01:53:34.780I think what we have to understand is that the Shah was the best friend of the United States in that area, in the whole Persian Gulf area, and it was Israel's only friend.
01:53:46.140The Shah, we must remember, in the 1973 war, furnished oil for our Mediterranean fleet when the other countries in the area cut it off.
01:53:55.840And the Shah tied down the Iraqi forces by supporting the Kurds against the Iraqis so that they never got involved in the 73 war.
01:54:04.500A year later, he made a sad and lonely pilgrimage to Cairo to attend the Shah's funeral.
01:54:10.420At the airport, he gave reporters a personal and historical perspective.0.75
01:54:15.460There's no question that the Shah living in Iran is a tragedy, a personal tragedy for
01:54:22.460him, a tragedy for the people of Iran who now are suffering repression much greater
01:54:29.200than they had before, who have four million at least unemployed, runaway inflation, under
01:54:34.300a government that is not really a government, it's really a mob, all these things have happened.
01:54:39.300But also it was, in addition to being a personal tragedy for the Shah, a tragedy for the people
01:54:44.640iran it was certainly a tragedy for what we call the west because what was leadership and stability
01:54:52.960in that part of the world is now replaced by instability the next day he marched alongside
01:55:00.000the shah banu and the crown prince in the shah's funeral procession through the streets of cairo
01:55:06.880the former president now a private citizen was the only american dignitary there
01:55:12.000several years later he recalled that day and spoke about his friend when i was there i was
01:55:22.160the only dignitary of any rank who came to the shah's men because here the shah who before
01:55:28.560everybody was bowing and scraping before him the heads of state and government and so forth because0.83
01:55:33.680he was rich and powerful and so forth and now they all avoided him because he was out of power
01:55:38.720And I never forgot that as I was standing there in the big tent where all the VIPs,
01:55:46.980usually ambassadorial level, not head of state level, were standing,
01:55:51.480Sadat came walking in, resplendent in his uniform, general's uniform.
01:55:58.160He saw me, his eyes lit up, and he walked over, held both hands out,
01:56:05.260and i said mr president it was very courageous of you to receive the shah after virtually every
01:56:13.580other country did not grant him sanctuary and he said courageous sir it isn't courageous to stand
01:56:22.220up for a friend today as events are unfolding in iran in the middle east the long friendship
01:56:30.140and unique partnership between two remarkable men richard nixon and shah muhammad reza palavi
01:56:37.660can provide an example of how true leadership can work to make a better and safer world
01:56:44.860but more than instruction they can be a source of vision and inspiration
01:56:50.140wow incredible job each show job each show
01:57:01.180yeah richard nixon is one of our top favorite presidents we love president nixon
01:57:12.700okay let's go to monad veisi and his analysis today is called
01:57:26.140so the topic of this morning's live stream that he had is called centcom's three proposals to
01:57:34.120trump for attack so let's watch and again guys the the translations are ai generated so it's about
01:57:44.120you know 90 95 accurate i won't like interrupt unless it's like a major like mistranslation or
01:57:52.920if it's like an important point that needs to be summarized and i am still keeping an eye on
01:57:58.360on the White House, the White House still hasn't gone live.
01:58:03.560So whenever the White House goes live, I'll let you guys know.0.63
01:58:28.360General energetical advantage,前- parties Maisel Vancouver of St. arch encourager and General Alsot kept whistleblower to Trump calling was Mexican people against Trump.0.69
02:06:07.060There is a group in the Philippines, the U.S.S. Boxer, who announced that it would be because of the reason it doesn't exist in the Philippines.
02:06:20.060Because if they want to get out of the Malaqa, they will see the Malaqa and the Malaqa.
02:22:01.700the martyrdom of the martyrdom of 14 IRGC soldiers in Zanjian due to an explosion of
02:22:15.340non-functional ammunition. So the official narrative from the Islamic regime is that
02:22:22.300this was an accident due to non-functional ammunition or something. The Zanjian IRGC
02:22:29.120was threatened following enemy airstrikes using cluster bombs
02:22:36.100was boom boomed okay so yeah basically
02:22:40.100so basically what they're claiming is that they're like moving a whole bunch of like
02:22:49.140unexploded boom booms and then one of them at like when a bunch of them were moving some of
02:22:55.400these unexploded boom booms today, they unexpectedly exploded. So today during one of
02:23:05.020these missions, 14 of the dedicated forces were martyred and two were injured. It's so weird,
02:23:11.840but why are they saying they were martyred? Like this whole martyrdom is like when, you know,
02:23:16.700you lose your life in jihad. So what? Moving unexploded ammunition is now jihad? So
02:23:24.340So basically, when they say that they're martyred, martyred, they're pretty much admitting that, oh, President Trump is starting. When they say that they're martyred, pretty much admitting that there was like boom-booms. All right, let's go to President Trump.
02:48:48.880I mean, you get a guy, he gets in, he's got a good line of crap, he gets in, and all of a sudden you're stuck with a man who's a moron.1.00
02:48:55.020This is not good. This is not good.1.00
02:48:58.720We went through four years of it. It's not a good situation.
02:49:02.080But we also dramatically increased coverage for outpatient clinical care known as site-neutral payments,
02:49:09.920stopping seniors from being ripped off by billions of dollars of outrageous fees that they charge, billions and billions of dollars, right?
02:49:17.820Oz. And on top of these major Medicare improvements, I'm pleased to report today
02:49:24.600that we have authorized $210 million in rural health care funding for the great state of Florida.
02:49:37.800We're taking some of the money that they scammed. You know, we're catching billions of dollars,
02:49:43.380billions minnesota it's like uh it's like you ever hear the expression shooting fish in a barrel0.56
02:49:50.180it's like shooting fish in a barrel and that governor and that attorney general is so crooked
02:49:54.740it's so horrible it's so horrible boy oh boy oh boy well stranger things have happened i will tell you
02:50:04.580by the way and our attorney general is doing a very good job isn't he todd blanche he's
02:50:08.900done a very good job a lot of action there's a lot of pent-up action perhaps most importantly
02:50:16.340for our great seniors i've secured the largest reduction in drug prices in american history you
02:50:21.620say it under my most favorite nation agreements we are delivering you the record-setting discounts
02:50:32.100with price differences of 400%, 500%, and 600, 700, and even sometimes 800% reductions. Now,
02:50:42.500some people would say it's 80, 90, 70. It depends on the way you phrase the statement,
02:50:48.580but it could be 500, 600%. It could be 90%. It doesn't matter. We've gotten you the largest
02:50:55.300reductions in history the largest reductions we were the most overpriced we had the highest price
02:51:04.180for prescription drugs anywhere in the world and now we have the lowest prices anywhere in the world
02:51:12.580that's all you have to know and to get that because i said to me you know it's going to be
02:51:18.180very tough the drug companies are going to be bad but we had to get the approval of other nations
02:51:22.420as an example i talk about the fat drug the fat drug a friend of mine who's extremely fat
02:51:29.620and very wealthy and very uh obnoxious he's a very unattractive individual actually
02:51:37.140but he's extremely smart very very successful he's a highly neurotic person semi-controlled
02:51:43.380i would say you know usually i like to say i like a neurotic person but it has to be controlled
02:51:47.700this guy's only semi but he he's in london and he calls me goes president in new york
02:51:55.140i'm paying like 87 for the fat drug he called it the fat shot i've given that that name the fat shot
02:52:05.060and i said well it's not working too well for you but he said i pay 87 dollars in london
02:52:12.500in new york i'm paying like one thousand i think it was one thousand three hundred dollars so i'm
02:52:19.780paying a thirteen hundred dollars and eighty seven dollars what's that all about and other people
02:52:24.580would call me the same but he made a big imprint because he's a very smart guy he said you know
02:52:28.580what i had a trace it's made in the same factory it's made by the same company everything's the0.82
02:52:33.700same except the price one's 87 and one's thirteen hundred dollars he said this is ridiculous and it
02:52:39.540did hit me the right way and we went to town didn't we i said we went to town and
02:52:50.660and we shamed the drug prices because they were for years said well you know it's research and
02:52:54.740development they said was research and development for them also right but we got them they weren't
02:52:59.380easy but we got all of them lined up but they said it didn't matter the reason we got them
02:53:03.540because they said we'd never get the other countries we had to get approval of the other
02:53:06.820countries where they'd have to double their prices and triple their prices because we come way down
02:53:11.220they go up a little bit because the world is bigger than us right so they go up a little bit
02:53:16.180so i'd call up like as an example france i spoke i spoke with macron right you know macron he's
02:53:22.580a wonderful guy president of the country nice guy so i say emmanuel your drug prices are a tiny
02:53:31.460fraction of ours we can't have that we're gonna have to raise it no no no donald i will not do
02:53:36.020that no no you will do that emmanuel no you'll do it a hundred a hundred percent you're going to do
02:53:41.540it no no no i will not do it and this went on for about two minutes i'm saying you will he's saying
02:53:48.380he won't so most people would say he won't do it then i said to him emmanuel if you don't do it
02:53:54.040i'm going to put a 250 percent tariff on all wines and champagnes that you ship into our
02:53:59.320and he said donald donald how dare you you should not do that you cannot do that and i said no i'm
02:54:11.660going to do it okay you have a deal that was it that was it i had and i told us i couldn't believe
02:54:18.440it he couldn't believe it and we had the same thing with germany we had the same thing with
02:54:22.920the other countries they said look you're not going to do it we're going to tariff the hell
02:54:26.020out of you at double the number that you're talking about and they all agreed every one
02:54:30.420of those countries agreed and now you have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world from the
02:54:37.200highest and and that alone should win us the midterms but you know the fake news doesn't like
02:54:49.200to write about it they don't even like i noticed a couple of the cameras went off when i was
02:54:53.820talking about it. When I'm getting to a really juicy subject, to me, that's a juice. Think of
02:54:58.780it. I mean, you talk about health care. It's all around medicines and everything else. And Byron,
02:55:05.500how big a deal is that, right? By the way, this guy's going to be a great governor.
03:27:08.820we introduced him handsome guy beautiful looking guy we introduced him we gave him the congressional
03:27:18.140medal of honor that the first time it's ever been done in the state of the union we gave him
03:27:21.900the congressional medal of honor and the democrats sat there like a bunch of dead people
03:27:26.380They didn't move. And I called them out. I said, you people are crazy. There's something wrong with
03:27:33.780you. But they voted against income tax cuts for seniors. They voted in favor of the largest tax
03:27:40.340hike in the history of our country. They wanted the largest tax hike in the history of our country.
03:27:45.280They also created the catastrophic inflation that I told you about, worst really in our history.
03:27:51.460If congressional Democrats had their way, Florida seniors would be paying higher taxes, higher prices, while Republicans have given you much lower taxes and much lower prices.
03:28:03.260You know, they use the word affordability, but I was the one that that received these high prices.
04:03:15.960A couple of months ago, you were at $2.
04:03:19.700Now I'm going to upset the apple cart.
04:03:21.960I ran a journey down to a beautiful country known as Iran.
04:03:27.640and we have to make sure that they don't have a nuclear weapon. We stopped them with the B-20.99
04:03:32.700bombers. If we didn't do that, we would have had a nuclear weapon. Israel would have been0.76
04:03:36.960blown to pieces. The Middle East would have been blown to pieces. I think Europe would have been0.97
04:03:40.420blown to pieces. But under what we were doing, I said, look, we're going to have to make this
04:03:46.240journey. It's almost like we built up this great thing. And then I said, now we have to break the
04:03:51.860eggs a little bit and we have to go and do it. And the only thing that I'm surprised is that
04:03:56.340i really thought oil would be dr oz we talked about it i thought oil would be much much higher
04:04:02.660than it turned out to be i mean it's not low it's certainly not low it's going to come crashing down
04:04:08.180as soon as this war is over and they're getting decimated they have no navy they have no air force
04:04:14.820they have no anti-aircraft equipment they have no radar they have no leaders their leaders are all
04:04:22.340gone very sad very fine people but with all of that i said we have to do it so i think you
04:04:29.780understand but i am surprised i thought that stock market would go down by 25 i thought that oil
04:04:35.700prices would be at much higher than they are right now they're not nearly as high as i thought
04:04:41.540and we're gonna look we're winning so big we're winning again their air force is gone
04:04:48.900Their ships are gone. They have 159 ships. That's a pretty good Navy. Within the first
04:04:56.020week, 159 out of 159 ships are right now lying at the bottom of the sea. The Navy is gone.
04:05:13.300And we're discussing. I spoke to them today. We're discussing. It's a little hard to figure
04:05:17.380out who their leaders are frankly you know their leaders are gone the first set is gone the second
04:05:22.100sat is gone khomeini was gone and they were pretty evil people not pretty evil they were evil they
04:05:27.700killed 42 000 protesters 42 000 and uh in a period of two weeks they killed 42 000 protesters but we0.95
04:05:37.300had to get this done and we're really doing well we're we're just winning if it were a fight they'd
04:05:42.500stop it. If this were a fight, they'd stop it. I know that expression. It's true. But they're not
04:05:47.740coming through with the kind of deal that we have to have. We're going to get this thing done
04:05:51.780properly. We're not going to leave early and then have the problem arise in three more years.
04:05:56.300Did you catch that? So he says, we're not going to leave early and have the
04:05:59.700problem arise again in three more years.
04:06:01.800under four years of crooked joe i go crooked and sleepy which is better sleepy joe crooked joe
04:06:15.660ready so armin he says a lot of things about iran in the speech but that's sort of like one
04:06:21.140of the main things um also in the last uh couple of hours uh since you've been gone um 14 irgc
04:06:30.800terrorists were correlated in an explosion yeah i saw that okay they were trying to um
04:06:41.920they were working with this thing that didn't explode they tried to well that's their story
04:06:48.000that that's their narrative whether whether that's true or not um we don't know but that's
04:06:53.760the narrative that the islamic regime um is putting out um and then scott besant also put
04:07:02.640out a really interesting statement um so he said it is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe
04:07:11.360to know what's going on in the outside world so he's using the same language as king of ahlavi
04:07:17.520some color for the iranian leadership as they literally sit in the dark the united states has
04:07:25.140complete control of the strait of hormos there is a hard currency i.e u.s dollar shortage food and
04:07:32.580gasoline rationing are in place the entire international community has turned against you
04:07:37.860the blockade will continue until there is pre-february 27 freedom of navigation
04:07:44.440So there's that. We also should go back to President Trump's press conference from, you know, the one you were playing earlier, because apparently he says some really important things in that as well that we still haven't aired.
04:08:00.300but uh but on top of that i also just wanted to um say that there are reports um of
04:08:10.480of boom booms as well where was it like shin is reporting some things
04:08:18.940i can't remember wait let me go to shin i think shin was reporting some stuff but uh
04:08:27.620so, so Shin says poop is about to hit the fan. And if Kalshi and Polymarket were not a thing,
04:08:38.440I would elaborate. So this stays a vague post. And then an hour ago, he said two UAVs hovering
04:08:46.320over shiraz and then explosions in erbil iraq so um i'm definitely getting february 27
04:08:56.560vibes um and one thing that i shared with everyone that i want to share with you as well armin is i
04:09:02.040was looking at the white house videos from february 27 so on february 27 um this is like you
04:09:09.66012 to 24 hours before the explosions began, the military operation began and Khamenei was
04:09:16.620exterminated. President Trump did, you know, like this sort of press conference with, you know,
04:09:23.100media before going on a plane. Then he went and he did like this big rally. Okay. He did a big
04:09:30.060rally and then afterwards like 12 hours later the boom boom started
04:09:40.140so what do you think is the reason behind all of this what do you think is happening
04:09:45.260i think he's finished i think he's gonna go finish the job when do you think it's gonna
04:09:49.340happen i think i mean again like i i i can't confirm i can't predict but i have a feeling
04:18:03.280but a small amount of weapons were sent and we'll see who has them but i'm not happy with
04:18:10.960what happened with the kurds the kurds did not deliver the weapons like that
04:18:16.360so that was that so now let's go back to this but i i just wanted to emphasize that part because we
04:18:23.160we we're getting another confirmation that that event that we said happened happened so
04:18:28.380yeah and remember we were getting like so much hate from people they were like oh the kurds are
04:18:33.440allies and we're like guys the the separatist kurds in iraq are not your allies they are uh
04:18:40.300they're your enemies uh they're just basically taking advantage right and uh they're actually
04:18:45.700more allied with the islamic regime and uh the kurdish like separatist militia groups um they're
04:18:51.520they're actually like they originate from communism and marxism so there you go right exactly
04:18:58.100Exactly. And Kurdistan as a country is as delusional as Palestine as a country.0.86
04:19:03.680Yeah. Like Narnia is more real than Kurdistan. Although we do have a Kurdistan province in Iran, which is a part of Iran's historical heritage, which we love, right?0.90
04:19:17.280So again, Iranian Kurds, very, very different from the communist paramilitary Kurdish Iraqi terrorists.
04:32:07.960And it says here, breaking 14 IRGC members killed an explosion in Iran.
04:32:13.160And Mark Levin is quote tweeting that, saying, arm the Persian people.
04:32:18.820I mean, to be clear, it would be better if it's Iranian, but, you know, not complaining,
04:32:23.940just wanted to always say that iranians better to say than persian uh ladies and gentlemen we come
04:32:28.900to you guys with some breaking news coming from iran specifically the province of zanjon in the
04:32:34.980northwestern part of the country we've just had a huge explosion and at least 14 irgc members have
04:32:42.260been eliminated the islamic republic state media are trying to spin this by saying that we've had
04:32:47.380our construction workers and cleaners and specialists trying to remove unexploded rockets
04:32:53.380from the us and israel that was just i assume that this is garda javi done putting some explosives
04:32:59.620there that's what i mentioned in the group discussion but maybe i don't know somehow on
04:33:03.700the ground and uh there was a bit of an accident and it was a boopsie of course that's not true
04:33:08.820because we had a huge number of irgc operatives who have been killed in this uh mysterious
04:33:14.900explosion of course we're going to keep you guys posted on this it's not going to be now it's going
04:33:19.220going to be later on as you can see i'm not just wearing this because it's a casual friday i'm
04:33:23.540actually going to the royal caledonian ball and it's got he looks good this is reeling in case
04:33:29.060you don't know but of course eventually i'll come back and give you guys the live coverage
04:33:36.740looking good mahir okay um go do you wanted me to play did you send me did you find a big
04:33:46.580you wanted to play the longer version of this or uh yeah i think i found it so here you go
04:33:53.540i think it's this one if i'm not because who is he speaking to here can you go forward a bit who
04:33:58.820is he speaking with is it sean hannity with jim jim henson it was sean hannity i'll see if i can
04:34:10.260find the full version i thought i saw it but maybe not i have some
04:34:26.020president trump reportedly briefed on new military options we already covered that
04:34:31.060so um while you were looking for that um i think i found it i think i found it let's see if it's
04:34:45.760this one i'll send it to you okay okay i also made some slides to explain the effect of the
04:34:53.380blockade i use ai to make some slides if you guys want me to go over that yeah i think that
04:35:00.460sounds great yeah okay so guys i'm gonna i'm trying to experiment more with uh slides um i'm
04:35:09.100trying to get better at this let me know if this is like if these slides are a helpful way to get
04:35:15.400a better grasp of whatever everything that is happening so because i was looking for some
04:35:20.920visuals to make people better understand how the blockade is affecting um the islamic republic and
04:35:28.100Nobody was making the visuals, so I was like, I can make the visuals.
04:35:31.880And see, tell me if you guys want more of these, more of these, okay?
04:35:36.000So the 60-day deadlock, the Islamic Republic's crude storage crisis.
04:35:41.760So as you guys know, because of the blockade, the Islamic Republic is running out of places to put the crude oil.
04:35:49.400And to evaluate how much storage capacity that they have and what the effect of this is, we'll go through over some data.
04:35:58.100The intelligence briefing on capacity, exhaustion, maritime evasion tactics, and the impending geopolitical fallout.
04:36:06.920So, look, this is a good visual for you guys to understand what's happening.
04:36:11.500Let me remove the chat so you guys can see it.
04:36:15.760All right, so the U.S. blockade has halted 85% of export volume.0.93
04:36:21.560the reason why it's not 100 is because islamic republic has found uh other ways like through land
04:36:27.720through um shadow fleets and other ways to try to avoid the blockade but 85 is like really really
04:36:34.920high already right so intensified u.s port blockades have choked iran's oil lifeline
04:36:41.240creating a severe physical backlog all extracted oil must now be diverted entirely into finite
04:36:49.560storage so we have two guys look we have two types of storage we have the onshore silos uh
04:36:58.280we can see here at the top right and then we have the tankers these are the floating maritime assets
04:37:04.280they're filling them as well right so because the oil is not leaving the persian gulf
04:37:10.840they have to fill these as much as they can okay so let's go here so diverted production relies on
04:37:20.760finite floating storage to manage the backlog iran is relying heavily on maritime vessels anchored
04:37:29.160offshore so these are these are what are called vlcc's okay say vlcc is basically very large
04:37:38.360crude carriers so they could carry around 2 million barrels of crude right and there's on store
04:37:47.560there's onshore storage as well and then there's these are the floating storage on vessels they're
04:37:53.880supposed to be like they're supposed to be carrying uh crude oil to deliver it to their destination
04:37:59.960but right now they're being used as storage right so here's the interesting graph that explains why
04:38:05.400you see such a great variance between the estimated time that the islamic republic is going to the
04:38:12.440when islamic republic is going to run out of time because you hear the 15 day number but you also
04:38:17.960hear the two months number why is there such a you know 45 day uh difference between the uh between
04:38:25.800these two numbers right so the countdown exceptions 15 to 60 days remaining so 15 and 60 is are very
04:38:33.320different so what's why what explains this uh difference western intelligence confirms iran
04:38:38.840will run out of storage within a maximum of two months however a massive 40-day variant
04:38:45.640variance exists based on iran's willingness to risk its crude quality by the way sorry if it
04:38:52.520says iran here is because that's how other people whenever i say iran we mean the islamic republic
04:38:57.960right so so for in 15 days the 15 days is where the guaranteed capacity but there is a 14-day
04:39:06.360risk gap that could stretch it all the way to 60 days so what's what what explains that
04:39:12.680a common practice dictates avoiding tankers older than 25 years to prevent oil degradation
04:39:21.240The actual remaining timeline depends entirely on how far Iran is willing to go in using these degraded vessels.
04:39:32.020So the reason why we were saying 15 days but now it's 60 days is because now we're witnessing the Islamic Republic is willing to actually use these very old tankers that they're not supposed to be using.0.51
04:39:48.020but because they're desperate they're using them so they could maybe stretch this deadline all the
04:39:52.660way to 60 days does that make sense guys in the chat let me know if this is helping understand
04:39:58.580this and then we have uh the sanctions anomaly tactical ais spoofing so these are ais the ais
04:40:09.460digital broadcast is basically the ship signaling who they are and what they are but many of the
04:40:16.100The sanctioned Islamic Republic tankers, they use the AIS digital broadcast to act like
04:41:22.760We have, so, day zero, storage, exhaustion, forces, well shut-ins.
04:41:29.200So, shut-in is when you basically shut down a well, and that damages the well.
04:41:35.140I mean, it's supposed to damage the well.
04:41:36.740We'll see there's somebody who disagrees with that, and we will analyze that as well.
04:41:44.640So oil wells is not something that you could just turn off without damaging the well, right?
04:41:51.200This is why the Islamic Republic has to continuously find storage spaces for the oil.
04:41:57.180And many people are saying that they're going to eventually run out of storage within 15 to 60 days.
04:42:03.160but i also mentioned this is something that i've still not been and not seeing anyone discussing
04:42:08.200this because i uh so i just said that maybe they would just dump it into the sea once they run out
04:42:13.480of all storage instead of doing it well shut in but um we'll see if this is like i maybe i'm um
04:42:22.440i don't know maybe i'm missing something but i don't know why other people are not discussing
04:42:26.680this is an option right but let's focus on the wells so it says assuming the port blockade holds
04:42:33.000and the spoofing loophole cannot scale to meet total production both lands both land and land
04:42:39.400and sea storage will reach 100 capacity the mechanical result is unavoidable extraction
04:42:45.720must halt and again the wells could be damaged so once storage capacity is exhausted the impact
04:42:52.280would likely extend to oil production itself not just storage right so here are the two theories
04:42:58.840and after that we'll go to the video goldie uh sent us so there's a there's some disagreement
04:43:06.280um the strategic debate forecasting the cost of shut-ins okay so western analysts are starkly
04:43:14.760divided on the long-term impact of forcing the islamic republic to halt production
04:43:19.880so the left one is what we're seeing most i just wanted to include this joseph webster
04:43:25.240analysis as well even though i'm not seeing that many people are agreeing with him but it's
04:43:29.240hell it's good to include that so the left one is what we're hearing so the vulnerability paradigm
04:43:36.440so people like el hashkin hashkiss hashkiss from the sword of economy so that's a publication
04:43:44.440they're saying that the infrastructure impact is severe degradation so after a well remains
04:43:51.240inactive for a long time it often cannot simply be turned back on the damage would be massive
04:43:57.560and to recover a well like that sometimes symbols cannot be recovered at all after that right but
04:44:04.120but for other wells it will take years years of required rehabilitation for them to get it back
04:44:10.840And again, that requires billions of dollars that the Islamic Republic doesn't have, and also the technology that the Islamic Republic doesn't have.
04:44:18.820But there are other people like Joseph Webster, who are from the Atlantic Council, who are saying that this is the resilience paradigm.
04:44:27.520They are saying that this is exaggerated.
04:44:33.180And their argument is that the Islamic Republic actually has a history of restarting production quickly, even under heavy sanctions. So somebody needs to evaluate whether Joseph Webster is correct here. And he suggests that the recovery timeline is much shorter because the Islamic Republic has a proven ability to bring output back online rapidly.
04:44:54.780I don't know. I think I agree with this Joseph Webster. I mean, I don't know. He's an expert and I'm not on this. But what I do know is that the Islamic Republic has never experienced a blockade like this ever before. So I don't know what Joseph Webster is referring to when it comes to the Islamic Republic's history.1.00
04:45:14.360all right so guys let me know if this is helpful like if you want me to turn more
04:45:20.200into like slides like this if this is like a good way to cover this material
04:45:30.460because your feedback because i enjoy making it like this i think it's more a lot more digestible
04:50:43.000He sees that they are destroying Iran from within economically.0.86
04:50:47.220However, he's not taking military options off the table.0.87
04:50:51.080And knowing him as well as I do, I would think that probably it's more imminent than not.
04:50:58.300I think at some point, more things are going to turn into smoldering rubble, just to make a point.
04:51:03.780And I think the advantage he has is our blockade is so much more painful to them than it is to us or to our allies.
04:51:11.920And I understand. I just drove cross-country and bought diesel at about, you know, $6 a gallon.
04:51:17.740It hurts everybody in America to pay for that gas. But that's a short-term thing.
04:51:24.060Iran is in the situation where they're about at the tipping point, where their currency is
04:51:28.560worthless, they can't pay the thugs in their military, and they have no idea who's going to
04:51:33.800take over, you know, when the next guy kicks the bucket. So President Trump has all the cards.
04:51:38.980He's patient. He'll play it, you know, so that it ends up the way we want it to end.
04:51:44.460All right. It's short term. Yes. It's still not the five dollars and three cents a gallon that we had under Biden.
04:51:52.180It's about a dollar less than that. It certainly is short term pain.
04:51:57.120Nobody wants to pay more for gas. Diesel is even more expensive, expensive, as you point out.
04:52:02.080However, in exchange for not giving our children and grandchildren nuclear weapons, again, in the short term, I think I take that deal every day of the week.
04:52:14.860And President Trump knew he would take a political hit.0.99
04:52:20.600Goldie, this is Poochie. I showed you Nella yesterday. This is Poochie.
05:14:51.280Khomeini took that and he basically suggested that in his book,
05:14:56.920wali-a-faqih, or the guardianship of the jurists,
05:14:59.360he came up with this idea that a whole society,
05:15:02.300when the imam of their time is not available0.97
05:15:06.640the mullahs need to be their guardian of society0.99
05:15:10.940in the absence of the imam of our time0.98
05:15:14.780so when Mahdi is in hiding and we don't have any imam of our time
05:15:19.860actively ruling, the society is like a child that needs guardianship
05:15:25.740and the fuqaha, the jurists, the religious jurists, the mullahs
05:15:31.320like not all mullahs the mullahs who are like ayatollah and above they're supposed to basically
05:15:37.980be a proxy for the mahdi and rule on his behalf does is this making sense let me know guys this
05:15:44.940is like some really detailed stuff and let me know if it's like if i'm explaining it in a way
05:15:51.260that you're understanding right maybe i should turn this into a slide so is this helpful so
05:15:59.300So Khomeini came up with the Velayat al-Faqih version of 12-verse Shia Islam or the guardianship of the Jew.
05:16:08.940So for simplicity, we could call it Khomeinism.0.76
05:16:12.360Khomeinism is a new version of 12-verse Shia Islam, right?0.94
05:16:16.200And that means that the Fuqaha or the Jewess will rule on behalf of Mahdi until he shows up, until he shows up.0.97
05:16:24.560But not only that, Na'ib-e-Imam Zaman, which means the proxy of the Mahdi, the proxy of the Imam of your time, is the Vali-e-Faqih.0.96
05:16:35.900So the jurist that is acting like the guardian, okay, he is the proxy of Mahdi.
05:16:45.600And not only that, he's in direct communication with him, right?
05:16:50.820So Khomeini, when he was the supreme leader, is in direct communication with the Mahdi.
05:16:56.240And then Khamenei, when he was the supreme leader, he's in direct communication with the Mahdi.
05:17:01.120And now Mujtaba, the third Wali-e-Faqih, he's in direct communication with the Mahdi in hiding.0.99
05:17:08.940By the way, I hope you guys understand how ridiculous this is because Islam is like 1400 years old.0.88
05:17:13.880And somehow Khomeini and Khamenei and the Islamic Republic has managed to convince many Shia Muslims that this new thing that we came up with 47 years ago has been how Islam has been Islam's message on how to rule for the past 1400 years.1.00
05:17:38.920So not Muslims around the world have not figured this out until 47 years ago.0.89
05:17:45.700And even today, most Muslims have not figured it out.0.99
05:17:48.860Not even all Shias have apparently figured this out.0.99
05:17:51.900So it's actually retarded, if you think about it, that Shia Muslims who support the Islamic Republic believe that God's plan for Islamic rule has been this new thing that we only have been doing for the past 40 years.0.99
05:18:08.000seven years it's a very ridiculous claim it's a very ridiculous claim and not only that0.98
05:18:15.280this thing that apparently this new this way of ruling which apparently the entirety of the
05:18:22.640universe has been created for the sake of this type of ruling right has been hardcoded in the
05:18:31.600fabric of the universe that this is how it's supposed to be like i'm not kidding you guys
05:18:36.160this is what they say right here's a here's a question to them it has not been mentioned
05:18:43.540anywhere in the quran so this idea of you needing to support valia faqih the supreme leader
05:18:50.700um this being the most important because guys in islam the most important part of islam
05:18:56.620is islamic rule okay you need to have islamic rule this is the point of islam is to have islamic
05:21:12.980It showed up on the screen when I was going to say this is an atheist miracle, okay?
05:21:19.840Okay, so I was going to say the whole point is to have the army ready, have their resources ready, have the Islamic Republic flag ready.0.61
05:21:29.580And when the Mahdi to come, the honor is to be the supreme leader who gives the flag of the Islamic Republic to the Mahdi, and then he will see it through after that.
05:21:39.840And exactly when I was going to say that, it showed the Mahdi holding the flag of the Islamic Republic.0.96
05:41:29.000So when you say, why did the, so that's the reason they split, because the rulers were
05:41:36.440the people who wanted to challenge the rulers, they needed a military challenge, but they
05:41:41.600also need a soft power right so everybody so when it comes to authority you have military strength
05:41:47.280and then you have soft power strength right you have the narrative you have the branding do you
05:41:52.400have the religious story that goes with the reason behind the legitimacy for why you should be ruling
05:41:58.800over the other people right so uh obviously religion being the main branding power back then
05:42:06.240anybody who wanted to challenge the authority of the umayyad and eventually the abasa dynasty which
05:42:12.080were basically what we now call sunni they needed to basic the best way to challenge that is to go
05:42:18.960with the more the more and more popular narrative that the imams the ali was wrong hussein was wrong
05:42:27.520and they should have been the leaders and that is the way that narrative is a way to0.60
05:42:33.120Oh, actually, this is a very good point, actually. I should have added that. The Shia stories of Ali and Hossein and the other Imams are revolutionary stories.
05:42:44.800The reason why they're revolutionary stories is because the people who came up with these stories were trying to do revolutions against the Umayyad and Abbasid dynasty.0.68
05:42:54.660This is why during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Shia Islam was a very effective way of doing revolution against the Shah, against the Pahlavi dynasty, right?
05:43:04.720And this is why even after they won the revolution and the Islamic Republic came into power and the Pahlavi dynasty fell,0.97
05:43:10.580the Islamic Republic continues to be revolutionary against the whole world
05:43:14.400because being a revolutionary is in the DNA.0.70
05:43:17.460And even though they're ruling a country,
05:43:19.140now they're revolutionary against the entire world
05:43:21.400because being a revolutionary is part of their ideology.1.00
05:43:24.960And this goes back to how Shia Islam was created.
05:43:27.980Shia Islam was created as a revolutionary act0.91
05:43:30.700against the Umayyad and Abbasid dynasty.0.98
05:43:33.600And now that's why within the Islamic Republic,
05:43:37.760And they have to basically revolt against the whole globe, even though they ended up finishing the Pallavi dynasty, they have to continue to be revolutionaries.0.64
05:43:46.620This is why the Muslim Brotherhood ideology that is Sunni didn't have as much of a success in the Sunni world, but then when it made it through to Iran, through Navab Safavi, the Shia narrative was a lot more in line with what Saeed Qutb wanted to do when it comes to waging war against the whole world.0.54
05:44:07.260The Shia framework made the Muslim Brotherhood goal of people like Sayyid Qutb a lot more effective.
05:44:16.720So the second part of your question, why didn't the Shias accept Muhammad as the last prophet?0.96
05:44:21.300So guys, these were not Shias. These are proto-Shias.0.99
05:44:24.720These are people who eventually were referred to them as Shias.0.91
05:44:27.580So a lot of this is dynamic, right?0.97
05:44:29.620So you have a winning narrative that Muhammad is the last prophet,
05:44:32.540And their competing narrative, instead of trying to challenge that, is to come up with this new concept of imam and use the stories of Ali and Hussain to create this new concept of imam is a more effective way of creating new spiritual leaders rather than challenging the narrative that has already been dominant that Muhammad is the Khatam al-Anbiya and the last prophet.
05:44:57.620this is so this is not about one person or two people accepting this this is about a trial and
05:45:03.060error organic uh darwinian competitive a narrative versus narrative and whatever narrative wins
05:45:12.500and whatever narrative wins they will the society will just go with that so it's more organic than
05:45:18.020active conscious decision making process right and then does that make sense guys let me know
05:45:24.180if that makes sense to you guys and that but that was a very good question if you guys want to ask
05:45:28.980me about this in a lot more detail come to the discussion group that i have and you could ask
05:45:34.180me about this in more detail if this this interests me a lot by the way so if you want to me to go
05:45:39.380more nerdy with this stuff come and get nerdy with me in the discussion group um the next super chat