Goldie Ghamari - The Calm Before The Storm - USA vs Iran

00:00:00.880 We need to have a serious talk about what I think may be one of the most dangerous 1.00

00:00:06.240 moments we've seen in the Middle East in a very long time. Over the last several days, 0.98

00:00:12.720 American media, Israeli media, geopolitical analysts, military commentators,

00:00:19.040 everyone suddenly seems to be focused on the exact same thing. The possibility that war with the

00:00:27.120 Islamic regime occupying Iran may be approaching again. And what's interesting is that this is no

00:00:34.720 longer just coming from random accounts online. Major American and Israeli outlets, as well as

00:00:42.480 people who are close to President Trump, are openly discussing the possibility that escalation

00:00:49.320 could happen very soon. Personally, I think we're entering what can best be described as the calm

00:00:57.400 before the storm. And President Trump, well, he agrees with me. And in this video, I'm going to

00:01:05.000 break down exactly why I think we're in the calm before the storm. I'm Goldie Gamari and you're

00:01:11.800 watching The Goldie Show. So let's get right into it. Over the past few days, American and Israeli

00:01:28.100 media have become extremely focused on the possibility that war is near. The reason they

00:01:35.660 believe the possibility of wars increasing is because from their perspective, America has not

00:01:42.180 yet achieved its core objective of preventing the Islamic regime occupying Iran from acquiring a

00:01:49.760 nuclear weapon. At the same time, President Trump's trip to China, which could have acted as a

00:01:56.620 temporary obstacle to escalation, is now over. And because that trip is finished, many analysts now

00:02:05.180 believe the conditions are now in place for military escalation. In other words, all the

00:02:12.220 preparations for war are ready. Well, what are these conditions that everyone is talking about?

00:02:18.820 Well, the first one is that America has not yet achieved all of its political objectives. And if

00:02:25.340 those objectives are not achieved politically, then the likelihood increases that the United

00:02:31.200 States will move towards military options. And this makes perfect sense because right from the

00:02:37.860 get-go, we Iranians have always said that you cannot negotiate with the Islamic regime. You 0.99

00:02:44.480 cannot negotiate with terrorists. Diplomacy and politics does not work with a brutal totalitarian

00:02:53.020 dictatorship who literally chants death to America and who literally broadcasts on their Islamic

00:03:03.020 regime state TV people shooting guns at images of President Trump and calling for his assassination. 1.00

00:03:12.620 You simply cannot negotiate with 7th century Islamic savages who openly call for President 0.98

00:03:21.180 Trump's assassination. You just can't. There is no diplomacy with terrorists. So that's the first 1.00

00:03:27.180 condition. The second condition is that the American military buildup in the region, in the

00:03:34.280 Persian Gulf region, is pretty much complete. They're not waiting for any additional deployments.

00:03:41.000 Everyone that needs to be there is already there. The third condition is that President Trump's

00:03:47.920 China trip, which some believed could have delayed escalation, is already over. It was done.

00:03:55.500 So from the perspective of many analysts, all the major and minor factors that could restart this 0.53

00:04:01.420 war are now aligned. Based on what I've seen, I don't think President Trump can end this conflict

00:04:08.340 with the Islamic regime unless he reaches several major objectives. And there are five objectives

00:04:15.580 that both President Trump and his administration are constantly repeating and talking about.

00:04:21.800 The first one, of course, is stopping the enrichment of uranium. The second objective

00:04:27.460 is removing the currently enriched uranium from Iran. The third objective is to limit the number

00:04:35.740 and range of the Islamic regime's missiles. The fourth objective is to end support for the 0.97

00:04:42.220 Islamic regime's proxy groups. I mean, we're talking Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hashdashabi,

00:04:48.340 you know, all these terrorist groups in the Middle East that are funded by the Islamic regime.

00:04:53.060 That's one of the major objectives, and that hasn't happened yet. And finally, the fifth 0.89

00:04:58.180 objective is to reopen and secure the Strait of Hormuz. Because America has not achieved these

00:05:05.600 goals diplomatically, the path towards military escalation becomes more likely. Unless, at the

00:05:13.620 very last moment, political pressure forces the Islamic Republic into surrender or major

00:05:19.980 concessions. However, I don't see that happening. There are no clear signs that the regime is

00:05:27.600 preparing to surrender politically. In fact, they're doubling down. This is why I believe

00:05:33.860 the possibility of military escalation is actually increasing. Another important point

00:05:40.080 that's being discussed is President Trump's visit to China. President Trump did not want

00:05:45.940 a major Middle East war to overshadow that trip. But now, President Trump's trip to China is over.

00:05:54.820 He's returned to the United States. And therefore, the way that I see it, one of the temporary

00:06:00.960 obstacles to escalation no longer exists. Now whether you agree or disagree with President

00:06:07.580 Trump politically, one thing about Trump's foreign policy style is very clear. He believes strongly

00:06:15.340 in pressure, leverage, deterrence, and the projection of power, not weakness. We're talking

00:06:23.820 peace through strength. And that's why myself and a lot of other people are paying very close

00:06:31.080 attention to President Trump's recent rhetoric and messaging on his Truth Social. And that includes

00:06:38.680 the message that President Trump put out on Truth Social yesterday, where he said,

00:06:44.400 for Iran, the clock is ticking, and they better get moving fast, or there won't be anything left

00:06:51.580 of them. Time is of the essence, President Donald J. Trump.

00:06:59.220 Seems pretty clear to me where things are going. Another major reason that I believe escalation

00:07:05.200 is possible is because the American military in the region is already prepared. Aircraft carriers

00:07:12.980 are already in position. Destroyers are already present. Amphibious assault ships are already

00:07:22.100 deployed. Attack helicopters, Ospreys, heavy transport helicopters, hovercraft, close air

00:07:29.980 support aircraft. All of these assets are reportedly already in place and CENTCOM is not

00:07:36.780 hiding that fact. The USS George Bush has reportedly also arrived. The Abraham Lincoln

00:07:43.760 carrier group is already in position. The USS Tripoli and the USS Boxer amphibious assault

00:07:51.160 groups are reportedly present in the area as well. From a military deployment perspective,

00:07:57.140 America no longer needs to wait. There's also reportedly thousands of Marines already positioned

00:08:04.240 in the region. Again, CENTCOM is not hiding that fact. If anything, it seems like CENTCOM is

00:08:11.640 bragging about the fact that the Marines are deployed and are in the area and are ready to go.

00:08:18.160 And estimates discussed by commentators suggest that America may already have tens of thousands

00:08:25.180 of personnel in the broader regional area as well. So from the perspective of those who are

00:08:32.920 discussing this possibility, especially when you look at the military side of things,

00:08:37.400 there is no shortage of manpower. There is no shortage of equipment. There is no deployment

00:08:43.800 delay, which is why many believe the infrastructure for escalation is already complete.

00:08:52.720 Now let's talk about the media narrative, because one of the reasons this conversation

00:08:57.840 is exploding online is because numerous American and Israeli outlets have recently discussed the

00:09:05.060 possibility that war could be near. All right, President Trump held a phone call with Israeli

00:09:11.640 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday to discuss the latest on the war in Iran.

00:09:16.300 The president also sending a clear warning to Iran, writing on Truth Social, quote,

00:09:21.200 for Iran, the clock is ticking and they better get moving fast or they won't 0.94

00:09:25.180 be anything left of them. Time is of the essence. Fox News contributor and former CIA station 1.00

00:09:31.160 chief Dan Hoffman joins me now. Dan, good morning to you. So we're hearing from our reporters in

00:09:35.360 Israel that there is a real sense there that right now the resumption of military action is

00:09:40.320 only a matter of time. So what are the chances the president makes that move this week?

00:09:47.100 Yeah, I think we're at an inflection point right now. And look, the United States military

00:09:52.500 has done significant damage to Iran's drone capabilities, their ballistic missile sites,

00:09:57.940 as well as their nuclear program. What we haven't done so far is changed the regime's behavior.

00:10:05.340 We have not induced them to begin negotiating in good faith over a long-term solution to

00:10:11.280 what concerned us about the JCPOA, and that is their nuclear program, the stored highly-enriched 0.90

00:10:18.540 uranium that we need to gain access to and remove from Iran their ballistic missile program and 0.79

00:10:23.560 their support to proxy terrorists. Ultimately, that's how the Trump administration's military 0.89

00:10:28.260 campaign against Iran will be judged. And of course, Iran has disrupted the flow of traffic 0.76

00:10:34.040 in the Strait of Hormuz. We also need to gain escalation dominance there. Israel Channel 12 0.99

00:10:40.540 repeatedly quoted senior Israeli officials saying the resumption of war could be close. And as we

00:10:47.260 know from Israeli officials themselves, they have made it very clear that when it comes to the

00:10:53.400 military objective of Israel, their objective is not just to neutralize the Islamic regime.

00:11:01.240 The objective of the Israelis is to overthrow the regime. Essentially, Israel wants regime change,

00:11:08.700 and in that sense, Israel is aligned with the Iranian people who also want to overthrow the

00:11:16.600 Islamic regime. I do want to keep in mind, though, none of these reports are claiming that war is

00:11:23.000 guaranteed. I mean, think about it. Prior to February 28, when the initial military operation

00:11:30.160 began, President Trump was denying that he was going to escalate. Or, you know, whenever reporters

00:11:36.520 asked him about it, he would say, well, you know, I'm not happy with the way things are going,

00:11:42.020 But we're engaging in talks and we have talks on Monday. Let's see what happens.

00:11:47.300 How are the talks going with Iran? Are you happy with the progress?

00:11:50.740 No, I'm not. I'm not happy with the fact that they're not willing to give us what we have to

00:11:55.860 have. So I'm not thrilled with that. We'll see what happens. We're talking later. We'll have

00:12:01.780 some additional talks today. But no, I'm not happy with the way they go.

00:12:05.700 That's what he said on Friday. And yet, 12 hours later, the military operation began, which instantly and immediately exterminated Khamenei, the supreme dictator of the Islamic regime, as well as 30 top IRGC commanders.

00:12:22.300 So, again, no one can predict whether or not we're going to go to war.

00:12:28.380 No one can predict when this is going to happen.

00:12:31.500 However, based on everything that I'm seeing, I think it's going to happen much sooner rather than later.

00:12:38.740 And that's what these media reports are showing, because all these media reports together create an atmosphere where the possibility of escalation is being openly normalized in mainstream discussion.

00:12:52.300 And that matters from a psychological perspective, because wars often begin long before the first

00:12:59.720 missile is fired. Wars begin through preparation. They begin through signaling. They begin through

00:13:07.500 laying expectations. And right now, the atmosphere has clearly shifted. And that brings me to

00:13:15.860 President Trump himself. Another reason that this whole topic about the possible escalation,

00:13:23.920 military escalation with the Islamic regime, the reason that's exploded online is because

00:13:28.620 President Trump himself posted on his Truth Social the phrase, the calm before the storm.

00:13:37.380 President Trump is also sharing military themed content and war related imagery online. In fact,

00:13:45.220 President Trump right now is trolling the Islamic regime and personally I'm here for it. Now whether 0.94

00:13:52.320 these posts are symbolic, psychological, strategic or literal is open to interpretation but I think 0.98

00:14:01.420 President Trump is helping to escalate the psychological atmosphere surrounding the Islamic

00:14:06.900 regime and surrounding Iran and that's why the phrase the calm before the storm suddenly became

00:14:13.860 a powerful geopolitical narrative online. We also can't talk about the rising tensions and

00:14:22.080 possible escalation without talking about the neighboring Arab countries in the Middle East

00:14:27.260 and the Persian Gulf area. Many Gulf states publicly speak cautiously, but privately they

00:14:34.260 also may be preparing for much more serious scenarios. In fact, if you recall, Saudi Arabia

00:14:42.240 did participate in the first military operation against the Islamic regime. However, word did not

00:14:49.640 come out until weeks later. And while countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been publicly

00:14:56.840 and openly calling for diplomacy and decreasing the tensions behind the scenes and behind closed

00:15:06.940 doors, they have actually been strengthening their military coordination. Now, whether every claim is

00:15:12.920 accurate or not, one thing is clear. The regional alliances are shifting, and many Persian Gulf

00:15:21.400 countries increasingly view the Islamic Republic as a destabilizing force in the region. Meanwhile,

00:15:29.680 the relations between Israel and several Persian Gulf countries have become far more open and

00:15:36.060 visible than in previous decades. Meetings involving Israeli military and intelligence

00:15:42.420 officials with Persian Gulf leadership have become increasingly public. Think about the

00:15:48.520 meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Sheikh of the UAE just a while ago.

00:15:56.440 And I have a feeling that this shift in geopolitical relationships in the Middle East

00:16:01.340 reflects growing regional coordination against the Islamic regime that's occupying Iran.

00:16:08.920 And that brings me to Israel.

00:16:11.180 For Israel, this issue is viewed through the lens of national survival.

00:16:16.680 And many Israeli officials have openly stated that their mission

00:16:20.580 regarding the Islamic Republic occupying Iran is not complete.

00:16:25.640 The argument repeatedly made by Israeli security figures

00:16:29.560 is that the Islamic Republic remains a long-term strategic threat.

00:16:35.280 I mean, think about it. 0.98

00:16:36.740 The Islamic regime for the last 47 years has been chanting death to Israel. 0.97

00:16:43.380 And their entire focus has been to destroy the state of Israel in order to advance their jihad. 0.99

00:16:52.080 Because for them, Israel and destroying Israel was one of the core foundational pillars 0.95

00:16:57.580 that led to the creation of the Islamic Republic.

00:17:02.900 And this is where you see a slight distinction between American and Israeli objectives,

00:17:09.980 at least in public anyway, because who knows what's going on behind closed doors. 0.65

00:17:16.480 Openly, America's objective is about making sure that the Islamic regime can never acquire nuclear weapon. 0.52

00:17:25.740 Israel's objective, however, is a little bit different. 0.73

00:17:29.300 Israel's objective is to weaken the Islamic regime to such a point where it can be overthrown. 0.61

00:17:37.560 Essentially, Israel is not hiding the fact that their goal is regime change. 0.54

00:17:43.460 And in that goal, Israel is actually aligned with the Iranian people,

00:17:49.080 who for 47 years have been trying to overthrow the brutal and terrorist Islamic regime.

00:17:56.600 This is the first time in 47 years that the Iranian people finally have outside help,

00:18:03.080 not just from Israel, but from the United States as well.

00:18:06.840 And because Iranians and Israelis are aligned, openly aligned,

00:18:12.440 in their goal of overthrowing the Islamic regime,

00:18:15.560 This is why many Iranian people feel closer to Israel's position than to America's, because in the minds of the Iranian people, whether they're inside of occupied Iran or outside, their belief is that America's goal does not go far enough.

00:18:36.020 because Iranians are no longer seeking reform. Iranians want regime change. Iranians want

00:18:45.420 revolution. Iranians want to throw the Islamic regime into the ash heap of history and the 1.00

00:18:54.020 Islamic regime once and for all and have a fresh start with a new government that is based on

00:19:00.660 democratic values, a government that is secular and that respects the human rights of everyone.

00:19:08.540 And this is where we get to the part where a lot of Western analysts often misunderstand.

00:19:15.860 Because the Islamic Republic is not entering this moment from a position of internal strength.

00:19:22.360 And while the fake stream media likes to claim that the Islamic regime is stronger than ever,

00:19:29.120 nothing is farther from the truth. In fact, it's the opposite. According to reports coming out

00:19:37.680 from occupied Iran, inflation has gone through the roof. Unemployment is rising. The restrictions

00:19:46.020 on internet continue. In fact, today is the 80th day that the Islamic regime has shut off the

00:19:53.500 internet, cutting out 90 million Iranians from the rest of the world. Gasoline shortages are

00:20:00.340 increasing, public frustration is growing, and the regime's legitimacy is weakening. Millions

00:20:07.940 of Iranians now openly support the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. And this is a major 1.00

00:20:15.420 psychological shift. Because historically, the Islamic regime relied heavily on the idea

00:20:22.960 that opposition represented only a small minority. However, that is no longer true.

00:20:31.920 The opposition to the regime is now the majority. 85 million Iranians are against the Islamic regime

00:20:40.520 and want to overthrow the regime. And many Iranians, especially younger generations,

00:20:47.760 no longer believe that reform is possible. In fact, they don't even want reform. They want

00:20:53.060 revolution. Now, a lot of people are asking, well, if Iranians want to overthrow the regime,

00:21:00.060 well, why hasn't the Islamic regime fallen yet? Why haven't the Iranian people risen up? I mean,

00:21:06.500 if all these revolutionary conditions exist, why hasn't the regime fallen yet? Well, here's the

00:21:13.540 thing. Revolutions require two simultaneous conditions. The first condition is that a

00:21:21.140 revolutionary movement must possess some key characteristics. It needs mass support, leadership,

00:21:28.520 organization, energy, continuity, and a clear political objective. And the second condition

00:21:38.360 that must be met is that the ruling system itself must begin to weaken internally.

00:21:47.560 In other words, divisions must emerge within the ruling elite and the regime's ability to

00:21:55.280 repress the people who want to overthrow it must weaken. Now what's interesting is that according

00:22:02.380 to reports that we're getting from inside of occupied Iran, both of those conditions are now

00:22:08.900 increasingly visible inside of occupied Iran. There are reportedly major disagreements within

00:22:17.700 the ruling establishment regarding negotiations, regarding the position on Israel and America,

00:22:24.300 their position on regional countries, their position on internet restrictions, and, of course, their position on how to respond to the growing unrest of the Iranian people.

00:22:38.000 And at the same time, the Islamic regime's ability to repress the Iranian people is allegedly starting to weaken because millions of Iranian people are now openly opposed to it.

00:22:55.480 When millions of people demand overthrow, repression itself becomes more difficult psychologically and operationally.

00:23:03.640 Now, keep in mind, the Iranian people are as of yet unarmed.

00:23:10.620 Now, this brings me to the leadership of the Iranian opposition, which is, of course, His Royal Highness Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and his growing political role.

00:23:23.660 His Royal Highness Reza Pahlavi is no longer being viewed merely as one opposition figure among many.

00:23:30.940 In fact, Reza Pahlavi is now increasingly being viewed as the only leader of a broader

00:23:40.540 national revolutionary movement. And the reason that His Royal Highness has so much support among

00:23:46.440 the Iranian people is because of the core foundational principles that guide the current

00:23:52.080 lion and son national revolution. Those principles include respect for Iran's territorial integrity,

00:23:59.480 human rights and equality for all Iranian citizens, the separation of church and state,

00:24:06.560 respecting the right for people to vote, and building a democratic transition after the fall

00:24:14.340 of the Islamic regime that's been occupying Iran. The movement now possesses leadership,

00:24:21.060 political discourse, mobilizing power, continuity, and even transitional planning. 0.95

00:24:28.820 That's why more and more people are supporting the overthrow of the Islamic regime that's been

00:24:37.200 occupying Iran, because now we know that there is a plan for the day after. Crown Prince Reza

00:24:44.640 Pahlavi's team is increasingly acting not as a traditional opposition movement, but as an

00:24:51.240 alternative governing structure that's preparing for a post-Islamic republic Iran. And that gives

00:24:59.080 people hope. As I get to the end of my analysis, I want to make one thing very clear. It's becoming

00:25:05.880 inevitable that the Islamic regime occupying Iran is weakening from multiple directions

00:25:12.260 simultaneously. It's weakening from an economic perspective, political, diplomatic, regional,

00:25:21.100 psychological, and from a social perspective as well. The fact that the Islamic regime has 1.00

00:25:27.540 censored the internet for the last 80 days in and of itself reflects the weakness of the Islamic 0.91

00:25:34.860 regime. Because if the Islamic regime was confident that it had the support of 90 million 0.98

00:25:42.560 Iranians, why would it feel the need to shut off their voices and prevent the outside world

00:25:49.860 from knowing what Iranians think of the Islamic regime, what Iranians think of the military

00:25:57.620 attacks by the United States and Israel against the Islamic regime, and what Iranians actually

00:26:04.800 want and who they support, which of course is His Royal Highness, the Crown Prince of Iran,

00:26:11.020 Reza Pahlavi. If the Islamic regime was truly confident that it had the support of the Iranian

00:26:18.400 people, it would not need to suppress information so aggressively, and yet it does. So finally, 0.73

00:26:26.180 I want to conclude that many of the classic conditions that political scientists associate

00:26:32.900 with revolutionary movements now exist in Iran. If a major triggering event occurs,

00:26:39.860 whether that is escalation of war, economic collapse, internet unrest, or gasoline shortages,

00:26:48.080 another major uprising could very well emerge. So where does all of this leave us?

00:26:54.620 It leaves us in a moment of enormous uncertainty. Nobody really knows whether war will actually

00:27:03.840 happen. Nobody really knows whether the negotiations will collapse completely.

00:27:11.840 Nobody really knows whether escalation will remain psychological or become military.

00:27:19.780 But based on what I've seen and based on what I've noticed and based on what I've observed in the last four or five months since all of this began, one thing seems very clear.

00:27:33.140 The atmosphere has changed.

00:27:35.500 The rhetoric has changed.

00:27:38.360 The positioning has changed.

00:27:40.920 and many analysts now believe the conditions for major escalation are significantly stronger than

00:27:50.500 they were only a few weeks ago which is why so many people are now calling this moment

00:27:57.940 the calm before the storm and whatever happens next the Iranian people deserve peace freedom

00:28:08.560 stability and a future free from dictatorship and extremism. Thank you everyone for watching.

00:28:18.060 Make sure to like, subscribe, share the video everywhere, and let me know your thoughts in

00:28:24.740 the comments. Do you think this is the calm before the storm? Do you think the Middle East is

00:28:30.820 approaching another major turning point? Or do you think this is all strategic pressure and

00:28:37.060 psychological warfare. I'll see you all in the next episode of The Goldie Show. And now you know.

Goldie Ghamari - May 19, 2026

The Calm Before The Storm - USA vs Iran

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