What happens when the Fourth Turning meets 5th Generation Warfare? A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran, Jack Posoe joins host Jack to discuss the latest in the latest news involving Iran and the Middle East.
00:07:44.100Haven't finished the previous proxy war against Russia, and yet we hear the same cheerleaders
00:07:49.420and same voices for yet another proxy war on this.
00:07:52.760Now, I want to drill down here because I think we've seen the signals now from the White House
00:07:58.680that President Trump isn't interested in this regime change war, but he is solely focused
00:08:03.500on ending the Iranian nuclear program.
00:08:06.460And the biggest thing, and it's not really a covert operation at this point, is this question about a strike on the Fordow uranium enrichment site, which is deep within these mountains south of Tehran.
00:08:21.020And the media tells me, everywhere I look in the media, left-wing media, right-wing media, it seems, oh, it's just one bunker buster is all it's going to take.
00:08:30.260It'll be the greatest strike in the history of strikes.
00:08:33.640And I'm looking at this, thinking of it as an intel officer said, wait a minute, I've put together strike packages and talked to the targeteers.
00:08:42.320I've never heard of anyone say that there's a perfect strike before.
00:08:46.860Lieutenant Carl Schaefer, is this true that this, you know, you can just press one button and get rid of Iran's uranium enrichment site?
00:08:54.600Or potentially, is there some magical thinking going on here?
00:09:33.080But Jack, to get to the level we're talking, you're going to have to have 10, count them, 10 of those penetrators get deep enough to have an effect.
00:09:43.400So, and then, oh, by the way, what happens if we have to go in and verify we did the job we said we did?
00:09:50.880Oh, by the way, what happens to the radiation that comes spewing out once you penetrate the facility?
00:09:57.320So, General Tony Zinni, the commander of Central Command, one of my friends and mentors, told me that Bill Clinton, this is back in the 90s,
00:10:05.660Bill Clinton would ask him, hey, General Zinni, can you do X?
00:10:13.520Well, so I think, Jack, as much as we can talk about ordnance, we can talk about effects, nobody can actually define what our end state is or what would happen if we do this.
00:10:25.300The then what seems to be the piece that everybody is missing, and I think President Trump has got it.
00:10:30.640That's why he's taken a deep breath and thinking about this before we act.
00:10:34.280Well, look, and you've got MIT professors that are coming out now, and I've seen some of the BDA, battle damage assessments, these bunker busters, and I hear them, and they'll go up.
00:10:46.020These cheerleaders, these neocons will say, well, you just fly one plane over, and you drop one bomb, and then the next plane flies over, and it's going to drop another bomb, and it'll go in the same hole, and that bomb will be able to get deeper behind the first one.
00:10:59.120And I said, what? What did you just say?
00:11:02.080I mean, the GBU, it's not precision-guided munition, all right?
00:11:06.160It has some guidance, but these things are bombs.
00:11:10.840They are not designed for that sort of thing.
00:11:12.640Plus, by the way, this Forto site, and we've been going through some of the information on it, that it does have the ability for blast deflection.
00:11:23.460Tony, walk us through the theory of blast deflection.
00:11:27.020It's this, obviously, most famously used on tanks, but they use the exact same type of theory here on this bunker.
00:11:34.700So, basically, 90-degree angles defeat this, and sloped armor is the same thing.
00:11:40.380You have an angle where something hits, it goes off.
00:11:43.260So, within the context of deep underground, you have things that will defer a blast up, defer a blast down, or a curve of blast, because once you hit it, that blast has to go somewhere.
00:11:54.340So, what I do know for a fact is that over the past 30 years, the Iranians have watched what we've done from the first Gulf War until now regarding our orbit.
00:12:06.480So, they have planned, Jack, with an understanding of what we can do.
00:12:11.140They watched the first Gulf War, the second Gulf War.
00:12:13.900They watched us take out Saddam Hussein and others' hardened facilities.
00:12:18.400They have a general understanding of what we can do.
00:12:21.340Jack, they designed this facility around the known capabilities.
00:12:25.460So, again, the penetrators, they are a good weapon to go after a certain amount of depth.
00:12:30.460But once you get to that depth, they have now planned to have certain defuse.
00:12:34.680That's why I'm saying this one or two bombs, no, no, no, no, no, no.
00:12:38.560You're going to have at least 10 to have some effect.
00:12:43.180And even with 10, I'm skeptical because of the very thing we're talking about, deflection technology, the design.
00:12:49.860You can design these things so that when you're that deep, that blast will go different directions away from the facility.
00:12:56.680And then, again, say we're successful.
00:13:01.280What happens to the uranium we're trying to get at?
00:13:03.600There are other better options that I can't get into necessarily here right now that we would be able to use against a deep underground facility.
00:13:12.720What does not require this level of destruction or potential outcome where you have radiation leaking into the world.
00:13:20.600But that's not being talked about right now.
00:13:25.200And ultimately, the only way to really be able to verify this, plus, by the way, you know, just basic common sense is would it be possible for the Iranians to move this uranium within the two-week period or potentially have moved it even prior to this?
00:13:43.640This obviously creates a significant amount of challenges that you're not really going to be.
00:13:48.900And then, by the way, Tony, we've got about a minute till the break here.
00:13:51.380But this is what you and I always talk about is this is why you can't sacrifice human intelligence.
00:13:58.580This is why you need human intelligence.
00:14:01.260This is why you need people on the ground to be able to know this type of intel before you commit to military operations.
00:14:07.640You're not going to get it with SIGINT, and you're definitely not going to get it with just a satellite.
00:14:13.020You need to have people that are actually in there know what's on the ground.
00:14:17.000So whether that's Israeli, whether that's American, the questions surrounding this thing, I think, are a lot deeper, you know, pun intended, than most of the media is letting on.
00:16:05.220We'll be greeted as liberators once we get some boots on the ground.
00:16:08.740And you've heard Lindsey Graham and James Lankford and Tom Tillis are out there calling for regime change and said they want to go further.
00:16:15.140But then they're also telling us that America needs to get involved when I thought, I'm sorry, I was told America didn't need to get involved last week.
00:16:28.220Does it make sense for this rush to war right now with the high pressure sales tactics and the upselling of regime change to President Trump without any national debate whatsoever or even any general understanding of the facts on the ground before we rush into one of these things?
00:16:48.740No, the the optimism and thinking of the neocons and that's both left and right.
00:16:55.280I mean, they're in both parts is insane.
00:16:57.820Remember, going back to the Civil War, the Battle of Manassas.
00:17:02.960Oh, everything will be done by next month.
00:17:07.360You know, next thing you know, 1861 turns into 1864.
00:17:55.340I don't think his service is worth the paper it is regarding his being an Air Force guy.
00:18:00.620I think anytime you put politicians in charge of strategic thinking, you get a completely inappropriate and unrealistic perspective on what could become if we use military force.
00:18:17.080And Tony, these people, they never even heard about order of battle.
00:18:21.340They don't even know what a basic order of battle analysis is.
00:18:24.960And so when I'm sitting there saying order of battle or asking basic questions about what this fight is going to look like, people are going to say, oh, why are you talking about that episode before?
00:18:32.960Because that's how you have the fight, okay?
00:18:35.600What kind of interceptor missiles do you have?
00:18:37.700How many interceptor missiles do you have?
00:18:39.760By the way, we've got a box out of the lower corner, President Trump about to be, about to leave from the White House, about to depart.
00:18:46.460And now, of course, even the media is starting to admit, they say, wait a minute, Israel doesn't have infinite missiles.
00:18:54.100Oh, wait, and America doesn't have infinite missiles as well.
00:23:13.680I'm just, you know, I'm trying to enjoy my summer and make sure that the U.S. doesn't get involved in another prolonged war in the Middle East.
00:23:21.360Make sure we can get all those illegal immigrants out of our country.
00:23:58.180The technology overlords have smiled upon us for once.
00:24:01.600You gave an incredible interview yesterday speaking out about some of this and what I'm dubbing magical thinking.
00:24:10.180I think there's this magical thinking that's going on in Washington, D.C., in corporate news and in a lot of places right now regarding the Israel-Iran conflict.
00:24:20.980And look, you know, people know on this show we have a lot of care for the Holy Land.
00:24:26.040And we're generally very anti-war when it comes down to it.
00:24:30.680We know these things spiral out of control.
00:24:33.120And yet there are people who are just straight up attacking you or, you know, not you personally, but attacking me and others, Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk, others, for simply raising a few skeptical points regarding this thing.
00:24:47.100And I just thought it was incredible that you, with the platform that you have, were willing to also voice some of the concerns and really from the perspective of veterans and units that had lost members and lost brothers and lost family members in the wars that we just finished fighting in the Middle East.
00:26:41.340I think that is the same rhetoric that was used during the Iraq War to try and manipulate the American public into buying the lie that Iraq had WMDs.
00:26:54.200You were told that, you know, unless you buy the lie that Iraq has WMDs, you're not patriotic.
00:27:00.140You know, the Dixie Chicks were canceled for that, for speaking out against President Bush because they didn't want to go to war.
00:27:05.360They were canceled by the right, by the way.
00:27:07.420I don't think millions of Americans are unpatriotic for not wanting to go to war in the Middle East again.
00:27:13.920And it's leftist rhetoric that he's using, too.
00:27:16.100Like, that is the same tactic that the left uses, you know?
00:27:19.920If you don't want millions of unvetted illegal immigrants pouring into your country, you're unpatriotic.
00:27:26.920Because America is a nation of immigrants, and we're supposed to welcome the cold, the tired, the poor, the huddled masses.
00:27:32.960And if you don't like that, if you don't like illegal immigrants coming into your country, you're unpatriotic.
00:27:37.720So I just, I don't agree with calling millions of Americans, 60% of Americans, unpatriotic for not wanting that.
00:27:44.260I don't think Mark Levin speaks for Americans under 30.
00:27:49.920I mean, President Trump always talks about how proud he is that he won the youth vote by 30 points, that he won young men overwhelmingly.
00:27:59.440And it's not, if the American military is to get involved again in the Middle East, God forbid, it's not going to be Mark Levin that gets sent to the front lines.
00:28:11.940I mean, if we were to drop Mark Levin in Iran, that would be quite the bunker buster, because he's a large guy.
00:28:18.580But it wouldn't be Mark Levin being sent to the front lines of Iran.
00:28:50.500And I don't think the American public is ready to see images of women that look like me being blown up by IEDs.
00:29:00.700And, you know, I don't think that's a good thing for President Trump's legacy either.
00:29:05.320President Trump has done so much to make sure that men can't participate in women's sports.
00:29:08.880Why are we now going to go burn all of that by letting women get blown up in combat in the Middle East?
00:29:16.080That's not something that I stand for.
00:29:18.920That's not something that I think would be good for his legacy.
00:29:21.020I was really grateful that the president said he's going to pursue this two-week time period.
00:29:28.020And what I'm concerned about is voices in the American media trying to undermine the president's decision to pursue peace and to pursue negotiation over the course of these two weeks or sooner.
00:29:42.000Mark Levin, Katie Pavlich, any of these voices, happy to debate anytime, anywhere.
00:29:46.860If you want to do two-on-one, happy to do it.
00:29:49.240But it's an important debate, and we should have it.
00:29:53.280Well, Caroline, I mean, I've seen the same tenor of their comments out there, and I've seen the way that they're talking.
00:30:00.660As if you are some kind of traitor to the United States for raising basic questions.
00:30:05.820Or, you know, me, I put on my military officer hat, and I say, well, okay, well, how many missiles do you have?
00:30:11.520And how many interceptors, how does the Iron Dome actually work, and can they sustain something like this?
00:30:17.180These bunker busters, you get this magical thinking that I can always say, oh, it's, you know, it's a go one hit, and it's going to be done.
00:30:23.240They're not going to have nukes anymore.
00:30:36.160People have never actually looked at one of these problem sets or done anything like this before.
00:30:40.140Because you never know what the strike is going to look like until afterwards, especially a massive and completely novel strike like the one you're talking about here.
00:30:49.740And they say, oh, we're going to have one bunker buster, and then the second one's going to come in, and it's going to dig, it's going to burrow down deeper after the first bunker buster.
00:30:58.320I'm like, what do you, guys, like, this is, this is, this is like, like, Star Wars, and it's Luke Skywalker, and, you know, Obi-Wan Kenobi, turn off your targeting.
00:31:06.420He's going up against the Death Star with the heat vest.
00:31:08.340He said, guys, you're watching a little bit too much Marvel.
00:31:11.040Like, can we just, can we have a serious conversation about military matters here?
00:31:15.440And maybe we talk to some people who have been in the military and actually look at this.
00:31:19.220And by the way, that's nothing against the training.
00:31:21.520That's nothing against the patriotism and the grit and valor of the soldiery and the airmen and pilots.
00:32:04.840Are Americans, I'm just going to say it, are Americans prepared, even in this limited strike, prepared to see what would happen if Iran were able to shoot down a B-2 bomber?
00:32:14.820And that, the amount of video that you would see on some of that, or God forbid, a malfunction, or something like that.
00:32:21.680I'm just saying you have to consider these things when you're conducting military planning for an operation over Indian country, or an operation over hostile territory like that.
00:32:33.840All of these things need, when we were, I served in, I was stationed in Guam a couple of times.
00:32:41.000And when they ran the invasions into Guam, they were people who didn't track the depth of the mud and the depth of the water.
00:32:50.200And there were times that during the invasion of Guam, that Marines would be jumping out.
00:32:53.520And these kids, 18, 19 years old, would be jumping out, fully loaded up, fully kitted down with packages and grenades and weapons and ammo.
00:33:00.640And they were so heavy that they sank right into the sand.
00:33:03.960They sank right in the sand and they couldn't get out.
00:33:06.520We saw this, you saw it in D-Day as well.
00:33:08.540And I'm sorry, but before we get into any of those conversations, we better darn well know what we're talking about before any single American gets sent into something like that.
00:33:21.300One minute until the break, Caroline Sunshine.
00:35:38.200Jack Posobiec back live, Human Events Daily.
00:35:40.320Finally, folks, we do have breaking news that an earthquake apparently has taken or has occurred, just occurred a few kilometers west of Tehran, of course, the capital of Iran.
00:35:53.760The earthquake apparently occurred at very deep, a depth of, and I'm seeing various numbers on this, potentially 35 kilometers underground or even 13 kilometers underground.
00:36:03.840This is far too deep to be the facility that is nowhere near where Forto is.
00:36:12.240And so we're going to keep an eye on this.
00:36:14.780Obviously, it is a very mountainous region.
00:36:18.100It's a region where there's been a lot of tectonic activity.
00:36:21.200Of course, everyone on edge because, of course, we know everything that's going on here over the last week.
00:36:27.840We're on with Caroline Sunshine, the former deputy director of the Trump campaign's communications.
00:36:35.580And Caroline, this conversation that you're having and that we're having is, I think, important because there are huge costs associated with this.
00:36:46.740And what I've really been trying to drive home today as well is to say, look, the people of Tehran, and people need to see what Tehran actually looks like, and no one is taking a look at this.
00:37:00.560No one knows how they're going to respond if the United States bombs them.
00:37:04.740And there's this, you know, refrain that, oh, they're just going to greet us as liberators and it's going to be this wonderful thing.
00:37:13.680I don't know if that's totally confirmed.
00:37:17.420And it certainly wasn't in Iraq or Afghanistan.
00:37:20.020And we could easily find ourselves sucked into a very, very bad situation.
00:37:25.580I think that there's no reason for the United States to engage in any kind of regime war, regime change in the region.
00:37:37.160It's really unpopular with the American people.
00:37:41.060I cannot begin to describe how unpopular it is.
00:37:43.680If you did want to undertake a popular regime change, honestly, the most popular one would probably be against Prime Minister Netanyahu himself.
00:37:53.640If you stand with Israel, it's hard to stand with his government.