What happens when the Fourth Turning meets 5th Generation Warfare? A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran, Jack Posobiec, joins host Jack to discuss all things HAPPY BIRTHDAY WHO CARES!
00:01:29.460And overall violent crime is down 22 percent.
00:01:33.080Former President Barack Obama says he is giving his blessing to California Governor Gavin Newsom's redistricting map.
00:01:40.080Obama endorsed the map while speaking at a fundraiser for the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
00:01:45.060The former president says it would be his preference not to have political gerrymandering.
00:01:49.880But given the effort in Texas to approve new maps favoring Republicans, he's supporting California's effort.
00:01:55.120There are three guided missile destroyers deploying off the coast of Venezuela.
00:01:59.240It's all part of President Trump's plan to help combat drug cartels in Latin America.
00:02:05.180Three U.S. guided missile destroyers, the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and the USS Samson are being deployed in these efforts,
00:02:15.040with some news outlets also reporting that the ships should arrive there imminently off the coast of Venezuela.
00:02:21.560So this will bring the military posture to about 4,000 sailors and Marines.
00:02:26.980Ukraine saying an American electronics plant in the western part of the country is one of the several targets in a massive Russian drone attack overnight.
00:02:35.540One person is dead and 15 people are hurt, according to President Zelensky, who also wrote in a statement,
00:02:41.780there have been no signal from Moscow that they are really going to engage in meaningful negotiations and end this war.
00:02:47.960Pressure is needed. Strong sanctions. Strong tariffs.
00:02:51.060Well, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition, Human Events Daily.
00:04:27.820I've watched all of the videos that have come out thus far, and I haven't seen a single one that I disagree with.
00:04:34.460Funny enough, you also can't seem to find any of the videos of people being arrested by ICE where they're speaking English.
00:04:41.880Amazing. Well, folks, we're looking at, of course, the Ukraine Russia situation deal or no deal.
00:04:50.440And we saw the momentum early on this week, which was huge.
00:04:55.040Of course, even at the tail end of last week, their historic moments in Anchorage, Alaska,
00:05:01.660the Anchorage Accords that sit down with Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov and others.
00:05:07.820Then the multilateral meeting, which came on Monday just 48 hours later, where you had the heads of seven world leaders coming to the White House, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy.
00:05:22.660They were all there. Ursula von der Leyen, even Alexander Stubb of Finland.
00:05:26.980But the question is, here's the question. Will the deal come out? Because you've got an issue here.
00:05:37.280And one of the tensions is short game versus long game. All right.
00:05:40.260For the Americans, they're looking at it from the perspective of a short game.
00:05:44.920The Ukrainians are looking at it from the perspective of a short game. So are the Europeans.
00:05:48.000Because all of those leaders are directly tied to election cycles.
00:05:53.220They're also directly tied to the current public opinion of the time.
00:05:58.020The Russians don't have that. So the Russian leadership is looking at this from the long game perspective.
00:06:04.600And from the long game perspective, they're saying, what kind of deal, what kind of assurances can you give us?
00:06:11.360What do we want? By the way, I mentioned yesterday how they want to bring the United Nations in.
00:06:15.600They said U.N. Permanent Security Council, which would include China.
00:06:19.900Zelensky then came out yesterday and said, absolutely not anything with China.
00:06:25.900So, again, when it comes to these things, and I had the opportunity, real honor, by the way,
00:06:30.840to be able to sit in that new media seat in the White House and ask the question of our press secretary, Caroline Levitt,
00:06:36.900to say, well, when we say security guarantees, what do we mean? Can we elaborate on this?
00:06:41.740And the devil is in the details, and the devil certainly is in the details here.
00:06:45.440Because when it comes down to it, a security guarantee from the West means that that country,
00:06:51.880whether it be the United States, France, England, Germany,
00:06:55.920you've got to roger up and deploy troops to be willing to go to war with Russia.
00:07:02.400And no country, not even Poland, has been willing to do that over the last three and a half years.
00:07:09.660Are we going to get a deal or not? We'll see.
00:07:12.600We've got General Flynn coming up next. We're going to get his take on it.
00:10:55.420One of the points of data was the number of killed in action over the last three years.
00:10:59.460The records of the deceased were actually part of the attack.
00:11:04.940And we're looking at 1.7 million people that have been killed in this war just in the last three years alone.
00:11:13.080So during the Biden administration, when President Trump says, we've got to stop the killing, I mean, the numbers of deceased that were reported on,
00:11:25.420and then now from this breach of this cyber attack, and we're not sure who exactly did it yet,
00:11:32.200whether it's the Russians or whether it's the Chinese or whether it's internal, no clue yet.
00:11:36.860But the numbers of killed in action, civilians and military is just staggering.
00:11:43.380So there has to be some recognition of those numbers to, you know, for those that are trying to come to grips with how do we achieve a long lasting peace deal, right?
00:11:58.560Not a ceasefire that they typically don't end well, but a long term peace agreement.
00:12:05.320And I do think that there's going to be some security guarantees that are going to have to be given to Ukraine.
00:12:11.960I've called for, Jack, I've called for an election, an immediate election in both Ukraine, and then that election,
00:12:21.540a referendum of sorts for not only the president of the country of Ukraine, the government of Ukraine,
00:12:28.120but also a referendum on what the people in those eastern Donbasses want to do.
00:12:46.400The United States of America, there's nobody does it better if we have the right people,
00:12:50.420and we're not trying to sway a country one direction or another.
00:12:55.480So those are just a couple of things that need to be considered as we go forward in coming up with a peace negotiation and a peace deal.
00:13:05.800Never mind the, I think, what can be huge, huge benefits will be an economic, and we have the best president in our history to be at the helm right now in the United States to come up with probably one of the best economic deals between not only Ukraine and Russia,
00:13:23.820but between Russia and Europe and Russia and the rest of the world, you know, so there's so much at stake there.
00:13:30.280The other thing that I have asked for and I've spoken about is I kind of call it a mini Marshall plan.
00:13:36.420Most people don't remember the Marshall plan post-World War II where we rebuilt all of Europe.
00:13:41.140So we would have to come up with some type of mini Marshall plan, if you will, and I know that that's on the table, not necessarily in that name, but a reconstruction effort inside of Ukraine, and frankly, it could help out Russia as well because there's been some things that have been destroyed in there too.
00:13:58.200But some type of mini Marshall plan is part of this long-term peace agreement that allows people to come together and rebuild and retool what it is that we need to have, not only in Eastern Europe, but certainly globally, and certainly for all of Europe, to stop this fighting.
00:14:20.060We have to stop this fighting to stop this killing.
00:14:23.740Neither side, Jack, can afford it any longer.
00:14:30.740And more attrition is not in anybody's benefit except for probably the CCP.
00:14:38.740I think that one of the great beneficiaries here is China.
00:14:42.300So let me stop there if you have any questions.
00:14:46.320So the question I have is going back to, and I asked Press Secretary Caroline Levitt about this on Tuesday in the White House,
00:14:54.600is also an elaboration of these security guarantees because we hear from some reports that they're talking about Article 5-like guarantees.
00:15:06.660President Trump says unequivocally no U.S. troops on the ground, possibly some air.
00:15:12.460But when it really comes down to it, doesn't this all run up against the deadlock of you're going to need some country then if you're providing those security guarantees,
00:15:22.600you're going to need some country to be able to say that they're willing to go to war with Russia and be willing to put actual boots on the ground in a scenario like this.
00:15:32.260And I'm looking around and I just don't see anyone in Western Europe or the United States, quite frankly, that's going to be saying that they're willing to do so.
00:17:59.900How do you prove that what happened happened?
00:18:02.520Then do you respond to it immediately?
00:18:04.440Do you gather the intelligence and you do the analysis as to what happened before you make decisions
00:18:10.820to deploy troops against, in this case, Russia?
00:18:14.700So big questions, and I do think that Europe, and that's why I'm so glad that Trump had that mini-summit,
00:18:20.620really a European summit in the Oval Office,
00:18:24.340they're the ones that are going to have to take responsibility.
00:18:27.040I think President Trump is doing all he can to bring the capabilities, the intellect, and the resources of the United States to help where we can help.
00:18:38.020But we have other issues, and he knows this, right here at home, that have to be dealt with.
00:18:43.140Not only our border, not only our own streets and making them safe, as he's done in Washington, D.C.,
00:18:48.160but we've got to rebuild our military.
00:20:44.820We've had Minsk Accords and Budapest Agreements and memorandums, and they never seem to be followed.
00:20:50.300So why not just go for the whole thing?
00:20:52.020And it seems to me that it's easier for the Russians to walk away right now than it is for us, and they seem more willing to.
00:20:59.500Yeah, and I wrote about this the other day where I said, you know, to the victor goes the spoils in war.
00:21:04.580But in this case, the victor so far is Russia.
00:21:08.200And so you're exactly right to raise this issue because the Russians may not hold the moral high ground, but they hold the ground.
00:21:17.020And they're in a much better posture militarily than the Ukrainian military.
00:21:24.560Now, when you talk about an array of forces, when you look at the size and scale and capabilities of the Russian military compared to the Ukrainian military, it's much different.
00:21:34.020And despite all of the potential equipment sales and provisions that have been given to the Ukrainians, they are running out of fighting age males because of the number of losses that they have had, and frankly, the defections.
00:21:50.180And that's one of the indicators that you look for from a military intelligence perspective.
00:21:53.880If you look at the morale and inside of the opposing force that you're facing, and I can tell you the morale inside the Ukrainian military is not high.
00:22:02.520And the fact that they're now having to force much older men, in this case, 60-year-olds and above, to come into the military to be able to fight on the front lines.
00:22:12.280So, you know, I don't know if Russia has the ambition.
00:22:18.020There are probably some on the far right in Russia, far right of Putin that, and that means really far right, that want to go and take over Kiev and all of Ukraine.
00:22:27.920But I actually think that there is a group around Putin that says, look, we hold this ground right now, we're in a really strong negotiating position, we want to maintain what we have, and basically hold what we have, and keep that as our strategy, and not necessarily threaten all of Europe, which the Russians don't have the capability to do that.
00:22:51.400So anybody that says, well, you know, NATO's worried about Russia attacking across the plains of Europe, that's not the Warsaw Pact anymore.
00:22:58.860They do not have the rear end, the capacity, the capability to do that.
00:23:02.860They have barely the capability to do what they're doing in Ukraine, but they hold the ground right now.
00:23:08.800And, you know, you use the term Odessa and not, that people need to pay really close attention because Odessa, Crimea, and the Black Sea are parts of this deal that Russia desperately needs, because there is an economic angle to this war.
00:23:28.940Well, I've said for a long time, and this may be my bias as a Navy guy, but, you know, when I look at the port city of Odessa, the Dardanelles Strait, the mouth to the Black Sea, I say, this is everything.
00:23:53.500You know, there's still control mechanisms within the Black Sea.
00:23:56.680You mentioned the Dardanelles, of course, the eastern Mediterranean.
00:23:59.800I mean, so when you look at the bigger picture here, Jack, it's not just these eastern provinces of Ukraine.
00:24:05.740There is a much bigger play here, and this is where we're going to have to try to figure out in a long-term peace deal, what does that mean?
00:24:13.560Does it mean constant direct access by the Russian Black Sea fleet to be able to exit and entrance, you know, the Dardanelles Strait to get into the Mediterranean and then operate in the east, at least in the eastern med?
00:24:24.860I mean, they have not been able to do that for a long, long time, and they only started to do that back around probably 10 years ago when they brought their Black Sea fleet out to actually support our operations against ISIS in Syria.
00:24:40.600When the United States of America and the U.S. military, U.S. military and Russian forces were working together, that was at the tail end of really the – well, actually, it was probably the middle of the Obama administration.
00:24:54.720So, I mean, there's so much history here that we have to – in recent history – that we have to understand to be able to have this negotiated settlement that has a long-term value to it, a long-term value proposition, not just something that is a ceasefire, which will end, you know, the next time somebody blinks the wrong way.
00:25:13.220So that map that you're showing is so meaningful, and I do know that there's some other things that are going to be in play here.
00:25:20.460I love the fact – and let me just throw this in because it matters – Trump's pressure on Venezuela right now, okay?
00:25:29.560Russia has a long-term, and they have, you know, sites inside of Venezuela.
00:25:37.160Venezuela is right off of our borders here, folks.
00:25:39.800So this pressure that Trump is providing against Venezuela right now matters to these negotiations.
00:25:45.640This is why when people talk about 3D, 4D, 5D, chess, Trump is a master at this, and he's got levers of power and levers of authority that he's able to exert when he goes in to bring these two presidents together.
00:26:03.220Last point, Jack, and I'll get off my high horse.
00:26:06.060In the Oval Office, there was a question to Zelensky about, well, are you going to have an election again?
00:26:11.240And, you know, you declared martial law, right?
00:26:13.060And he says, well, no, we can't have an election until the war is over.