Jack Posobiec talks about an active shooter situation at UNC Chapel Hill, the capture of an illegal immigrant, and the impeachment of Joe Biden. Jack also discusses the latest in the case of Danilo Cavalcante, an illegal alien who was shot and killed by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents.
00:11:00.860I'll be out there with Ashley St. Clair.
00:11:02.360And we've been talking about the West Virginia Senate race because Joe Manchin is up.
00:11:08.800Now, we know Joe Manchin is coming up, but most likely that seat is going to flip because he is not long for this world.
00:11:17.500And anyone running as a Democrat in that state is going to get absolutely trounced at this point.
00:11:23.860Donald Trump has remade the party, remade the map in so many ways that states like West Virginia are falling directly and squarely within his crosshairs.
00:11:35.920Those people gravitate towards a candidate like Trump.
00:11:40.640It means that Joe Manchin is done in the Senate.
00:11:44.600So if you have a guy like Joe Manchin, who's down in West Virginia as a Democrat, who's kind of a conservative Democrat, you got a guy like Mitt Romney, who's an extremely liberal Republican in name only.
00:11:57.700If the two of them work together on a fusion ticket, that could spell a very interesting situation for the top of the ticket.
00:12:41.580There was one poll that showed him, you know, 40s in the 40s in a crowded field.
00:12:46.780People like Staggs and others who the base supports, a lot of the base, the MAGA base supports, you know, were struggling in one poll to gain traction.
00:12:55.160But in another one, it showed prior to that that he was vulnerable.
00:12:58.920So I'm sure there's some of that to consider.
00:13:01.340It's just that Utah, as ruby red as it is, Jack, it's very establishment.
00:13:13.440They aren't, you know, super pro-Trumpy in Utah because they're a lot of Latter-day Saints and they don't like Trump's, you know, how, let's say, machismo.
00:13:49.080And, you know, this is something I had, you and I had been talking about a lot.
00:13:52.440His plan was a stupid plan anyway because you couldn't consolidate a field when a frontrunner has more than a majority.
00:13:59.380And it was just ludicrous to believe that as the rest of that field consolidated, anyone was going to be able to, you know, rise and overcome Donald Trump.
00:14:07.780It's just ridiculous to somebody like me, even just from plain statistics point of view.
00:14:22.940He's going to try to scumbag Donald Trump by picking off a couple of states here, a couple of states, maybe try to pick Utah just enough to try to block.
00:14:34.340Even if they go all in on Utah, they win.
00:15:32.300In the next national poll we do, we were going to start to test some of this because we have with other candidates in the past, like a Liz Cheney, RFK is an interesting dynamic.
00:15:42.460If he was an independent, something like Romney, before they get their small brains all excited, he could take away votes from Biden in an area like southeastern Pennsylvania, which actually could throw bigger electoral college states to Donald Trump.
00:15:58.340He may not even need that six, those six electoral votes.
00:16:02.760So it's going to be interesting if that's what he intends to do.
00:16:06.520And I wholly believe that is what he intends to do.
00:16:09.200I would just say the ramifications of this, you know, the Mitt Romneys of the world, we need to have some kind of definitive – what's the word I'm looking for?
00:16:19.620We need to have some kind of definitive resolution to the Trump era in this country, which is really getting ready to burst at the seams.
00:16:28.020If we don't, Jack, and something like this was to happen, you're going to get widespread civil unrest for a long time in this country.
00:20:34.260I would say watch for Manchin to make his announcement next because we know, as Gavin Newsom told us, that the filing deadlines are coming up.
00:20:42.780That's why the announcements are being dropped now.
00:20:45.360So watch for Manchin next and this scumbag ticket where they're planning to scumbag Trump out of the presidency.
00:20:51.460But you've got a potential different theory on their effect in the race.
00:20:55.600Yeah, they may scumbag Joe Biden out of a close race, which one where you have to honestly at this point now the way the polling has been.
00:21:04.040Even with everything going on, if you take away the opportunities they're trying to get him off the ballot, take away that and you just look at the trends in the polling and what's been going on, these massive shifts that we've been seeing.
00:21:16.720It might actually hurt Joe Biden more than it will hurt Donald Trump.
00:21:31.360Some of the other YouGov polls, this one's with The Economist and they happen to be like the least Trumpy along with Yahoo News.
00:21:37.680But they all show what we saw in our new national poll I sent over to you.
00:21:41.620The New York Times is seeing, Emerson is seeing.
00:21:44.020If you look at who these voters are that are shifting away from Biden and to Donald Trump, there is basically no chance that Mitt Romney would even appeal to these people.
00:21:53.240Everyone who is in 2020, 100,000 or more actually went to Trump for household income.
00:21:59.460That is the only group that has gotten more pro-Biden.
00:22:03.440It went from Trump plus two in this poll today in 2020 to Biden plus around 15.
00:22:38.140Trump's response in all capital letters, the entire thing as usual.
00:22:42.660Fantastic news for America, the great state of Utah and for the Republican Party.
00:22:47.900Mitt Romney, sometimes referred to as Pierre Delecto, will not be seeking a second term in the U.S. Senate where he did not serve with distinction.
00:22:58.100A big primary fight was in the offing, but now that will not be necessary.
00:23:27.240So you look at the rest of what has shifted considerably, that under 50,000, which Biden won by double digits, is now Biden plus two in the YouGov poll.
00:23:37.960And we consistently have Trump up a little, Biden up a little, Trump up a little, Biden up a little.
00:24:16.100So, and by the way, a 10-point shift among Hispanics to Trump in this poll that was out today also has Trump up in about 40.
00:24:23.880Some polls have him a little bit over 40.
00:24:26.240We have him usually at 40 among Hispanics.
00:24:28.700He's not going to lose those newly shifted voters to Mitt Romney, brother.
00:24:33.220They're not going to go to Mitt Romney.
00:24:34.660I strongly suspect you would see some areas, again, like southeastern Pennsylvania, parts of – outside of Milwaukee, outside of Green Bay, where Republicans have been struggling recently.
00:24:47.420Maybe they don't want to vote for Biden, so they said, well, I'll go back and I'll vote for the establishmentarian Republican.
00:24:55.940But meanwhile, pulling all those votes away from Biden and delivering some of these states that Trump would have had a hard time winning, Pennsylvania, Michigan, maybe even Minnesota is a state where someone like Mitt Romney would pull votes from Joe Biden in suburban areas.
00:25:10.860But he sure as hell is not going to get them from the Iron Range or northwestern Minnesota.
00:25:17.740It blew up to a 10-point race in 2020 in favor of Biden.
00:25:23.460That's about the shift, eight, nine points.
00:25:25.940That we're seeing to Trump that would make a state like Minnesota get closer.
00:25:30.400And then if Mitt Romney's presence was on that ticket, that could be it.
00:25:34.460Pull a couple of points away from Joe Biden, went Manchin on the ticket, and it spells doom for Joe Biden, even if they carry the state of Utah.
00:25:43.280So walk me through which states do you think would be potentially in that – because this is fascinating to me.
00:25:49.620I said Utah, okay, maybe that's the state that he could pull.
00:26:02.200He would dent Biden in states that we would normally consider to be Democrat states, but some of those D plus five, D plus six states.
00:26:10.840So walk me through what would be the list of states that you would say would now become in play if this ticket does materialize as it seems to be.
00:26:19.560Certainly, New Hampshire would definitely – would come into play because you have so many of those voters outside Concord.
00:26:27.680There's some new arrivals from Massachusetts that make New Hampshire the state it wants – it used to be a very different state.
00:26:34.920Again, Minnesota, Michigan, these all have areas.
00:26:39.100Like think of a place in Michigan, for instance.
00:26:41.260Like Oakland – yeah, like think of Oakland County, Michigan, right?
00:26:54.360She played the I'm the girl from Holly.
00:26:55.960But they used to vote for like Mike Rogers pretty consistently.
00:27:00.140But Oakland has trended to the left because it's gotten more educated and more higher income.
00:27:04.800If Biden doesn't get every vote out of Oakland County that he possibly can get, then Trump trouncing him, because he's going to, in Macomb and in Monroe counties is going – Joe Biden needs every single one of those votes in Oakland to offset the Macomb and Monroe margin.
00:27:23.600And then that's how Michigan has won or lost, well, with Trump.
00:27:27.540Nobody else really has a prayer to win Michigan.
00:27:30.180But then it's a fight between Wayne and the rest of the state.
00:27:33.920If he doesn't get every vote out of Oakland, then Trump's going to edge him out.
00:27:37.940That's going to – even if it's close, he's going to edge him out.
00:28:09.480You know, and I wonder how it was that that all got worked out there in Florida,
00:28:13.740and then Ricketts all of a sudden has a Senate seat that he's able to essentially appoint himself to when his successor becomes governor, Pillen.
00:28:20.720So a machine state like Nebraska, I could easily see that being turned over to Romney.
00:28:27.440There's also a lot of gubernatorial elections that the Republicans should have performed better in,
00:28:35.960that they had a very significant role in sabotaging those Republican nominees.
00:28:41.980So if everyone thought that, you know, Ducey was the real head of the RGA, they were fooling themselves.
00:28:47.960I mean the Ricketts pulled the strings there.
00:28:49.480You know what happened to Doug Mastriano.
00:28:52.760There's a reason he couldn't raise money.
00:28:54.640There's a reason the RGA didn't want to help him.
00:28:56.500I mean he basically took one look at Doug and said, you know what, I kind of like you actually, but you're a Trump guy, so you're not my kind of guy.
00:29:02.580He did that all around the country to people he didn't like.
00:29:05.260So, yeah, I can see Nebraska, but again, you're talking about these red states, these small red opportunities someone like Mitt Romney may have.
00:29:13.820There are only a handful of electoral votes, Jack, and it would require them to sweep basically all of them, which I wouldn't think they would do.
00:29:21.980And then you look at the Rust Belt, the Northeast.
00:29:27.140Yeah, and then you look at the Rust Belt in the Northeast.
00:29:29.440And Nebraska too, by the way, there are two congressional districts, how they, like Maine, is how they allocate their electoral votes.
00:29:37.480One has been swinging away from Republicans for a while, and Trump really didn't need it in 2020.
00:29:43.180He just needed a combination of, you know, Arizona and Pennsylvania, Georgia, whatever.
00:29:47.920So, especially with the census changing the electoral map or changing electoral votes for each state on the map, I just think that it poses a big risk.
00:29:58.080We polled, I'd love to poll it again and see.