Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - EPISODE 553： THE CHINA FILES - WORLD WAR TAIWAN

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00:00:25.780 The Poso Daily Brief.

00:00:30.000 We are in a fifth generational conflict.

00:00:40.140 A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.

00:00:46.780 This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.

00:00:49.720 Deliver us from evil.

00:00:51.740 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard for another special edition of Human Events Daily,

00:00:57.160 The China Files, Part 5, World War, Taiwan.

00:01:03.800 And I just wanted to say thank you to everybody for the incredible reaction we've had, The China 0.99

00:01:09.560 Files, Part 1 to 4, which really covered the birth, the growth, and the takeover of China

00:01:16.240 by the CCP, the rule of the CCP, how the CCP has governed and evolved over the years.

00:01:23.140 And then finally, the backstory of Xi Jinping.

00:01:25.920 We got so many comments, so many questions, so many great reviews on the whole thing.

00:01:32.320 And then a lot of people just saying, you've got to go more in depth.

00:01:36.260 We want more of these.

00:01:37.380 We want a lot more.

00:01:38.560 You appreciate the history, storytelling part of it.

00:01:42.660 Because I think a lot of places, especially when you're in school, you know, you have

00:01:46.660 to memorize dates, and you have to memorize names, and you have to memorize some of the

00:01:51.160 things.

00:01:51.360 But nobody just sits down and tells you the story.

00:01:53.780 Nobody sits down and explains it to you in a narrative form.

00:01:56.680 And that's what I try to do when I do these.

00:01:58.760 And obviously, when we're doing the regular show, it's news of the day.

00:02:03.480 It's, hey, this thing just happened.

00:02:05.360 We've got information on it.

00:02:06.560 Or I've got a source that's telling me something, some hot lead, some hot scoop.

00:02:10.380 Or something just happened in the world, and we're breaking it down in terms of analysis.

00:02:14.620 But we don't always take the time to sit back and just give you all this background information

00:02:21.900 and tell these stories.

00:02:23.680 So many of them, like pretty much anything to do with communism, is completely absent from

00:02:30.720 the mainstream of pop history or school history, high school.

00:02:36.920 You go to college.

00:02:38.100 If you go for any communist story on communism, your professors are all going to be pro-communist.

00:02:44.600 So you're not going to get any information about, say, the Spanish Civil War or the Chinese

00:02:50.320 Communist Revolution, the Cultural Revolution, the Khmer Rouge, these things.

00:02:54.600 You've got to seek them out on your own.

00:02:56.120 So something that I'm trying to do, and I saw there were a few people that said, hey,

00:03:00.000 you know, this is the same stuff that I read in a book.

00:03:02.900 And they said, that's great.

00:03:04.020 That's great.

00:03:04.360 There's so many good books on this.

00:03:05.680 But what I'm trying to do is give this to an audience, present these stories to an audience

00:03:11.840 that's never heard about this stuff whatsoever before.

00:03:16.080 Maybe we'll do some other episodes where we go more in depth and we go much deeper.

00:03:20.360 And some people were saying they wanted me to go deeper in on the triads and the Green

00:03:25.020 Gang and some of the work that Chairman Mao, the deals that he made with various entities

00:03:30.800 throughout China in order to prop up the CCP in the early days, the opium, how the CCP

00:03:35.300 profited from the opium trade until later on when the People's Republic was founded.

00:03:40.480 Mao later took all the opium dens, shut them all down, executed the opium dealers and sent

00:03:45.780 all the addicts essentially into either prison camps or rehab centers.

00:03:49.620 Right.

00:03:49.760 So there's so many stories.

00:03:52.380 And again, we only had a certain amount of time for each episode.

00:03:55.440 So that's why, look, folks, you know, we have to package it in a certain way and we have

00:03:59.060 to pick our time.

00:04:00.480 So I agree.

00:04:01.680 There's so much more of this.

00:04:03.180 But put it this way, because the reaction was so huge, so enormous, because there's clearly

00:04:10.620 an interest in this and this style of storytelling for you that we're, let's just say we're doing

00:04:19.080 more.

00:04:19.460 There's definitely going to be more.

00:04:21.040 I can't reveal exactly what it is yet, but there's going to be more.

00:04:23.660 So Taiwan, this was the big question that I think everyone has, because it seems to be 1.00

00:04:30.340 the biggest flashpoint coming forward.

00:04:32.800 This was Mearsheimer's warning.

00:04:35.120 Mearsheimer's warning is that the U.S.

00:04:36.740 is currently involved in a hot proxy war with Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine, right, being fought

00:04:42.240 on Ukrainian territory or, you know, obviously some part of it is being in dispute right now.

00:04:48.140 It's some of it's Ukrainians, some of it's Russians.

00:04:49.860 It's going back and forth, line of contact, et cetera.

00:04:52.880 But at the same time, the U.S.

00:04:55.580 is escalating tensions and China's escalating tensions in the South China Sea, in the East

00:05:01.140 China Sea, particularly when it comes to Taiwan.

00:05:04.380 And so the question is, does this force or does this trip what has been referred to as

00:05:12.280 the Thucydides trap and this idea that every time there is a rising power and a current

00:05:18.720 power that's in decline, that those two will go into war and that they will pick.

00:05:23.940 And it doesn't necessarily, and for the Thucydides situation, it doesn't necessarily matter what

00:05:29.920 the flashpoint is, just that the two sides will at some point go to war.

00:05:35.900 And this is something, this is a pattern that we've seen go on again and again throughout

00:05:41.400 history.

00:05:42.940 And will the U.S.

00:05:44.720 fall into it?

00:05:45.280 We don't know.

00:05:46.220 I personally hope not.

00:05:47.580 I don't want the U.S.

00:05:48.380 to go to war with China.

00:05:49.560 I don't want there to be a war in Ukraine.

00:05:52.360 I don't want there to be a war on the Korean peninsula.

00:05:55.060 And I certainly don't want there to be a war in Taiwan.

00:05:58.340 But the question before us is not, should it happen?

00:06:02.940 The question before us is, will it happen?

00:06:05.280 And if so, what will that look like?

00:06:08.040 So to understand that, you have to understand what Taiwan is and what the current status quo

00:06:12.140 of Taiwan is.

00:06:12.900 So let's start there.

00:06:13.920 And back in 1949, and we told this back in episode one, part one of the China Files, the

00:06:23.820 nationalists on mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, they fled to Taiwan.

00:06:29.600 They brought money, they brought artwork and cultural artifacts, they brought gold with

00:06:35.800 them, everything they could from the treasury they could take with them, and they fled to

00:06:39.660 the fortress island of Taiwan.

00:06:42.120 But Portuguese called it Formosa.

00:06:44.840 And the People's Republic, the People's Liberation Army, the Red Army at the time, and Chairman

00:06:50.820 Mao wanted to go in and launch the invasion right then.

00:06:55.280 And they almost did.

00:06:56.940 However, something else was going on in 1950.

00:07:00.300 And that was a little thing called the Korean War.

00:07:03.120 So the nationalists have fled to Taiwan.

00:07:05.980 They're building up the island.

00:07:07.560 They've got all their armaments there.

00:07:09.360 We've got everything they can.

00:07:10.600 The Red Army is hot on their tails, is about to invade, looking to invade, but the Korean 1.00

00:07:15.180 War kicks off.

00:07:16.720 And then the US gets involved immediately.

00:07:19.060 And the Soviets do not want that land ramp directly into their eastern flank.

00:07:26.440 They don't want that land ramp into the Soviet Union for the Americans.

00:07:29.300 And that would obviously open them up to Manchuria, to China, etc., etc.

00:07:33.580 So they go and pull the chain with the CCP.

00:07:37.840 They yank Chairman Mao back by his collar and say, the Red Army needs to forget about Taiwan

00:07:44.280 because we got bigger fish to fry right now.

00:07:47.100 And you need to go fight the Americans in Korea. 0.99

00:07:50.180 And China does. 0.80

00:07:51.800 Mao does.

00:07:52.240 In fact, Chairman Mao's oldest son, at least the only one that we know of, dies in the

00:08:00.260 Korean War.

00:08:01.700 So if that son had lived, there may very well have been a Mao dynasty, but we'll never know.

00:08:07.520 That being said, there are other Maos that are out there now, but none of them which are 0.98

00:08:11.620 of any real note.

00:08:12.620 And there's some that have kind of perfunctory positions within the party, but there's no real

00:08:17.420 power there.

00:08:20.040 So...

00:08:22.240 The state of North Korea, as we all know, the 30th parallel gets, and the DMZ get instituted

00:08:27.300 because at that one point, MacArthur's got the Koreans, the North Koreans and the communists

00:08:32.440 all the way up to the border, the Yellow River.

00:08:34.860 And MacArthur, as famously is told, says, we need to go all the way to Beijing.

00:08:40.680 We need to start nuking Beijing and Shanghai if they get involved.

00:08:44.180 We need to take this fight to the heart of the communists.

00:08:48.580 Truman says, no, publicly fires MacArthur.

00:08:51.500 After MacArthur publicly comes out against Truman, says it's a breach of the chain of

00:08:55.200 command, we all know the story.

00:08:57.660 But the point is that Taiwan and the nationalists and the nationalist government are sitting there

00:09:04.220 the whole time, fortified in the island, building it up.

00:09:07.660 And at the time, during the Korean War, Truman sent aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait

00:09:13.560 to make it very clear that if China got involved in Taiwan, then that it would trigger a wider war

00:09:20.780 with the United States.

00:09:22.500 And of course, the Red Army didn't have the resources to fight a two-front war, not just

00:09:27.880 against the Koreans, but against the United States and its allies.

00:09:31.000 Keep in mind, they had just expended magnificent resources, incredible resources, fighting the

00:09:36.980 nationalists.

00:09:38.020 And they've got their army, but their only one year ended.

00:09:41.820 And there's still fighting going on in different parts of the country.

00:09:44.280 There's warlords that they're fighting.

00:09:46.200 There's so much going on.

00:09:47.500 The idea of them being able to maintain two conflicts in essentially multiple theaters,

00:09:53.760 two-front war, both with the United States, again, one which would require a major C component

00:10:02.200 to it, it just wasn't in the cards.

00:10:04.320 There was no way for them to take Korea and Taiwan at the same time. 0.68

00:10:09.200 So the Korean War ends, armistice is signed at the DMZ.

00:10:13.320 And for years, all the way up until the 1970s, the United States continues to recognize the

00:10:24.380 Republic of China, the nationalist government of China, which is now currently situated on

00:10:28.880 Taiwan, still there today, as the legitimate government of all of China.

00:10:34.180 So think of this, for 30, almost 30 years exactly, 29, the People's Republic of China, the Chinese

00:10:40.720 Communist Party controls all of mainland China, but the United States doesn't recognize them

00:10:47.120 from the 50s to the 60s to the 70s.

00:10:52.400 And then it's only with Jimmy Carter's administration.

00:10:56.300 So Nixon, of course, and Kissinger go over there.

00:10:58.820 They say, look, we can break up the communist block of countries on nationalist lines.

00:11:04.640 And then we can start opening up to China and we can maybe break them away from the Soviets, 0.99

00:11:11.720 great power politics.

00:11:13.100 This idea of if there's another great power and we get them on our side, we can use them

00:11:16.640 as a bulwark against our greater foes.

00:11:19.580 At that time, the Soviet Union.

00:11:22.180 But they never grant, the Nixon administration never grants China full recognition.

00:11:27.880 That only comes later in 1978 with Jimmy Carter.

00:11:31.760 But here's the other piece.

00:11:34.500 What is it that China demands in response for normalized relations and for taking a stance

00:11:41.840 against the USSR?

00:11:43.740 They say you must adhere to something called the one China policy.

00:11:49.440 And what's the one China policy?

00:11:50.760 The one China policy means that Taiwan is part of China.

00:11:54.100 Now, it's an interesting balance because, of course, if you go to Taiwan and the Republic

00:12:02.600 of China, what will they say?

00:12:03.920 They say Taiwan's part of China and we're the legitimate government.

00:12:07.600 If you go to Beijing, what will they say?

00:12:10.640 Taiwan's part of China and we're the legitimate government.

00:12:13.060 So the U.S. position has always kind of been this interesting fence striding position in

00:12:18.760 the middle.

00:12:19.500 And that's been the status quo for all this time.

00:12:21.660 In fact, President Truman once famously said that if the United States and China should

00:12:26.380 ever go to war, then Taiwan would essentially be an organic, floating, giant aircraft carrier

00:12:33.660 right off the coast.

00:12:35.260 However, what the People's Republic has said is that should Taiwan ever attempt independence,

00:12:44.600 full independence, to declare themselves not a rogue province and a formerly former government

00:12:54.160 that was in charge of the entire country, should Taiwan declare independence and try to start

00:12:59.120 an entirely new country rather than be the Republic of China, but call themselves the Republic

00:13:05.140 of Taiwan, that that would trigger a full on war launched by the PRC, launched by the Red 0.95

00:13:15.500 Army.

00:13:16.360 They have said that's a red line for them.

00:13:19.200 And so the status quo is saved like this since 1978, the communique is signed.

00:13:24.360 Every administration since then has held to this status quo.

00:13:27.520 But now Xi Jinping's in power and Xi Jinping views Taiwan as unfinished business, the same

00:13:36.080 way that Putin saw Ukraine as unfinished business.

00:13:39.560 We're not going to get into all that.

00:13:40.700 I'm just explaining the backstory.

00:13:42.620 They see Taiwan as an integral part of China and a piece of China that had been lost to them

00:13:48.980 and they want it back.

00:13:51.340 And they view this government on Taiwan as illegitimate.

00:13:57.520 So we've walked through the U.S. policy of what a lot of people call strategic ambiguity

00:14:05.840 towards Taiwan.

00:14:07.520 This idea of will the U.S. defend them?

00:14:10.120 Will they not?

00:14:11.380 Will China accept things and go along? 0.79

00:14:15.040 And of course, we covered in multiple parts of the series how both sides have become incredibly

00:14:20.960 rich off of this.

00:14:21.800 No, no, not you, the people, but the elites and the leaders.

00:14:25.040 The Lao Baixing of China and the deplorables of the United States and the rest of the West 0.99

00:14:33.280 have lost their money.

00:14:36.480 They've lost their jobs.

00:14:37.360 They've lost their manufacturing.

00:14:38.500 It's all gone to China. 0.91

00:14:40.080 Almost all of it.

00:14:41.600 Germany is still trying to hang on, but without cheap Russian gas, we'll see how well their 0.58

00:14:45.100 products do on the open market.

00:14:46.860 Probably not so well.

00:14:47.700 And so when it comes to the scenario, the goal has always kind of been, hey, keep things

00:14:56.560 cool and we'll make a lot of money, but don't turn into one of these things because then

00:15:00.460 we're not going to be able to support it.

00:15:02.420 And of course, the United States and the leaders of the United States want to keep China as the

00:15:08.980 junior partner in all of this.

00:15:10.300 They don't want the People's Republic and they don't want the CCP gaining more power

00:15:16.700 and challenging the United States as the top dog.

00:15:21.500 But of course, as we've seen over the past year and really the past decade, a large

00:15:28.020 diminishment of US power in the world.

00:15:31.880 We've seen, I mean, you have to say it what it is.

00:15:35.900 The United States lost in Afghanistan, lost the Taliban one. 1.00

00:15:42.260 Afghanistan has kind of a track record with that.

00:15:44.280 They call it the graveyard of empires for a reason.

00:15:49.020 Then Ukraine kicks off. 0.52

00:15:52.360 You see the US Navy ships are colliding into each other, burning down on the pier.

00:15:56.680 And a general loss of US power and power projection in the world writ large.

00:16:04.540 The US dollar has become incredibly weakened by the misdeeds of the Federal Reserve and because

00:16:11.920 of US trade in general.

00:16:15.060 All of these wounds were self-inflicted.

00:16:17.400 Financial crisis, of course, also being one of them.

00:16:20.620 We're seeing the same thing now with the new coming financial crisis, the crisis of ESG,

00:16:25.880 the woke-ism and the rest of it.

00:16:28.420 So the United States has become weaker and weaker and weaker.

00:16:33.660 And meanwhile, China is just becoming stronger.

00:16:35.940 They've got problems of their own, and we'll talk about that in the next segment.

00:16:39.540 But from a net perspective and a relative perspective, they're becoming stronger.

00:16:45.120 And so is it in the interest of Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan?

00:16:51.400 That's the biggest question.

00:16:52.640 And the real answer is the only reason that he would invade Taiwan unilaterally without a direct

00:17:02.200 provocation would be if there was a challenge to his leadership.

00:17:05.780 Now, there has not been a challenge to his leadership.

00:17:07.900 And a lot of people that focus on China, that focus on this whole thing, say, oh, Xi Jinping's

00:17:13.580 done.

00:17:13.960 The CCP's about done.

00:17:15.640 We've seen flare-ups.

00:17:16.580 We certainly have seen flare-ups.

00:17:17.720 We saw that with the people of Shanghai and the people across the cities in China protesting

00:17:23.620 against the lockdowns.

00:17:25.560 But that's not the same thing as a full-on Tiananmen Square-style challenge to the CCP.

00:17:31.100 It's just not.

00:17:31.540 And so the question becomes, what kind of provocation, what kind of scenario would kick things off?

00:17:40.280 So I just said before, and we've heard Taiwanese presidents in the past refer to this.

00:17:47.700 Chen Shui-bian was one of the first in the late 90s, early 2000s, talking about an independence

00:17:53.100 vote, a declaration of independence of Taiwan as a sovereign nation that's separate from

00:17:59.340 every other nation.

00:18:00.900 So, and then applying for status at the UN, et cetera, et cetera.

00:18:07.240 The CCP has said, that's an absolute red line.

00:18:11.440 And I guarantee you, the elites at Davos, which is coming up later this year, are absolutely

00:18:17.920 not going to say a word about Taiwan because they're totally owned by the CCP.

00:18:24.340 And so when I was there last year, he would say, it was Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, defend

00:18:28.680 democracy, defend democracy, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.

00:18:30.880 I went up and down that street and you wouldn't see a single person flying a Taiwanese flag, a 1.00

00:18:38.760 single person going up there and saying, what about Taiwan?

00:18:43.920 Not a single piece, which actually gives me an idea for something we could possibly do

00:18:50.900 at Davos this year.

00:18:53.200 But let's say Taiwan goes for full independence and the United States mismanages the situation

00:19:02.600 because of course, under this administration, the Biden administration, what else could they

00:19:07.580 do?

00:19:08.220 You're not going to see anyone pump the brakes on this.

00:19:10.140 And the United States says, we'll back you all the way.

00:19:16.940 What you would see from Xi Jinping, I think the most likely scenario.

00:19:22.240 So when I was in the military, you have to come up with usually two assessments of a situation,

00:19:28.400 one of which is the most likely scenario.

00:19:31.540 And one of the Mitch, one of the most is the most deadly scenario.

00:19:34.920 So the ML COA and the MD COA, most likely most dangerous and course of action.

00:19:44.680 And the most likely scenario, Taiwan goes for independence or de facto independence, or perhaps

00:19:52.360 Taiwan joins into a regional military alliance.

00:19:57.700 Let's say the United States tries to build a NATO of East Asia, the same way that we saw 0.93

00:20:04.480 the NATO of Europe push into Ukraine.

00:20:08.460 And that tripped the red line for Vladimir Putin.

00:20:12.040 If we overthrew the government in Kiev, 2014.

00:20:15.980 Let's say in Taiwan, a new military, regional military is brought up and suddenly this regional

00:20:28.660 NATO, call it whatever you want, but we're going to, we're just going to call it Asian NATO 0.62

00:20:33.900 for this point.

00:20:35.680 It's got Australia in, it's got New Zealand, they've got nuclear submarines.

00:20:40.780 It's got Japan, it's got South Korea, and all of a sudden they start saying that they're

00:20:49.020 going to start arming and forming bases on Taiwan.

00:20:52.420 Now the US already arms Taiwan, but let's say this regional, this regional NATO, Asian NATO

00:21:01.240 comes in because we know this is directly targeting China.

00:21:05.760 But that would be a red line, naval assets from those countries permanently stationed in Taiwan,

00:21:14.800 air assets, bombers, strategic bombers, jets, drones, China would never let it happen.

00:21:22.700 They just wouldn't.

00:21:24.640 And so they would call that a red line as well.

00:21:28.500 So the most likely scenario, in my view, would be a blockade.

00:21:35.760 China does not have an extremely powerful blue water navy.

00:21:40.340 They can't force project around the world the way the United States does with the US empire.

00:21:44.480 And that's really the globalist American empire, as Darren Beattie puts it.

00:21:48.220 But what would China do?

00:21:49.680 They would effect a blockade.

00:21:51.520 They would use naval assets.

00:21:53.140 They would use submarines.

00:21:54.740 They would use every ship at their disposal, merchant marine, you name it.

00:21:59.140 And they have merchant marine militia, believe it or not, in China.

00:22:01.720 Some of these guys, we believe, are even special forces that are slipped into the merchant marines.

00:22:08.040 We call them little blue men. 0.53

00:22:10.280 And they have the ability to conduct sabotage operations.

00:22:14.800 So they'd run a blockade.

00:22:18.680 You would wake up one day and you would see power outages in Taiwan.

00:22:23.640 You'd see massive cyber attacks.

00:22:26.100 You'd see the banks go down.

00:22:28.040 You'd see email go down.

00:22:29.700 You'd see GPS go down all across the entire island.

00:22:32.840 And then suddenly, the People's Liberation Army Navy, the PLAN, would announce a blockade of Taiwan in order to protect it, in order to stabilize the situation from Asian NATO or from an independence vote.

00:22:51.400 And by the way, I don't need to imagine this, and you don't need to imagine this, because this happened last year.

00:22:58.720 This happened in August of 2022, when the People's Liberation Army Navy, the Chinese Navy, announced live fire drills all around the island of Taiwan, which coincided with Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, one of her sort of last hurrahs as Speaker of the House.

00:23:18.320 They conducted a naval blockade and live fire drills all around the island.

00:23:25.600 You don't think they were sending a message?

00:23:27.680 Of course they were sending a message.

00:23:29.880 And that wasn't the first time they did it.

00:23:31.140 They did that back in the 90s as well, when Taiwan was flirting with independence and Chen Shui-bian's movement.

00:23:36.240 And so the message is simple.

00:23:38.400 We will come. 0.99

00:23:40.260 We will surround your island, and we will starve you. 0.94

00:23:43.160 We will cut you off from the rest of the world, which China has already done, to a large extent, financially and economically. 0.99

00:23:51.600 You don't see anything made in Taiwan anymore, with the exception, by the way, with the one exception of semiconductors, but not your basic consumer-level products other than that.

00:24:01.120 No, absolutely not.

00:24:03.000 So here's the situation.

00:24:04.180 Can Taiwan survive a blockade, a prolonged blockade?

00:24:10.820 Because that Navy, Chinese Navy, Taiwan Strait is tiny, small.

00:24:16.040 They can cross that median line in minutes.

00:24:20.020 They can go right across.

00:24:22.640 And how do we respond?

00:24:24.540 How does Asian NATO respond?

00:24:25.840 Because they could blockade Taiwan, surround that entire island, all the people, without firing a single shot. 1.00

00:24:36.480 And this would then send the entire world, and particularly the Biden administration, into chaos, because they would have no clue whatsoever how to deal with it.

00:24:48.060 So in the next segment, when we come back, I'll walk through what I think is the most likely response from the Biden administration to this.

00:24:59.720 So now we've got a blockade surrounding Taiwan.

00:25:04.560 The Chinese Navy saying that anyone who attempts to cross the blockade, whether it be activists, whether it be drones, or whether it be military, will be fired upon.

00:25:15.140 The United Nations condemns it.

00:25:18.100 China says, we don't care. 0.98

00:25:19.400 The United States condemns it.

00:25:20.840 China says, we don't care. 0.98

00:25:23.700 Japan, the regional partners, they call on China to stand down.

00:25:27.820 China says, we don't care. 0.98

00:25:30.840 We want to be top dog again.

00:25:32.860 And this is our own island.

00:25:34.460 You're going to let this little rowdy bunch of separatists tell us what to do on our own island?

00:25:41.880 We don't think so.

00:25:42.940 You're going to put military bases on Chinese territory?

00:25:46.480 We don't think so.

00:25:47.980 It's not happening again.

00:25:49.980 Because, of course, China has seen those invasions in the past, obviously from Japan and World War II, but then also the opium wars going back to the 1840s.

00:26:00.220 The British Empire cracking Imperial Japan open like an egg and then demanding that military forces and colonization take place.

00:26:11.800 This happened not long ago in the Chinese mind.

00:26:15.200 And to them, this is a, and by the way, this is a similar argument that the Japanese Empire made.

00:26:23.060 They said, you're imperialists, whereas Japan's, the Imperial Japan said, no, we're kicking out the Western imperialists.

00:26:31.340 By the same token, the Chinese Communist Party is saying, no, we're kicking out Western influence.

00:26:38.020 We want only Asian influence allowed on this side of the Pacific. 1.00

00:26:42.380 This is our land.

00:26:43.720 This is our water.

00:26:45.600 This is our island.

00:26:47.100 And who are you to tell us how it should be run?

00:26:49.600 And by the way, didn't you already agree to the one China policy anyway?

00:26:54.800 So they'd have Biden over a barrel.

00:26:56.740 Absolutely.

00:26:57.980 But you've also got a sort of, shall I say, I shouldn't say Mexican standoff, but we're going to go ahead and say it.

00:27:04.380 Because, of course, the U.S. is the consumer market for the Chinese economy.

00:27:11.480 China is the manufacturers for the U.S. economy.

00:27:15.860 So you've got a dual-edged sword there.

00:27:19.000 Which side blinks first? 0.96

00:27:20.700 Is it the side that needs the consumption to continue the activity?

00:27:25.520 Or is it the side that says, we'll take the hit?

00:27:29.180 So it becomes a war of attrition in that case from the U.S. and China's perspectives.

00:27:34.400 Just imagine.

00:27:35.760 You can't get new parts for your iPhones.

00:27:38.000 You can't get new glass.

00:27:41.720 Stores are becoming empty.

00:27:44.560 In Walmart.

00:27:45.860 Target.

00:27:47.220 You're starting to not be able to see things anymore.

00:27:50.580 Plastic containers.

00:27:52.100 Cups.

00:27:52.920 We saw a little of this during COVID, by the way.

00:27:54.980 Where do you think all that stuff is manufactured these days?

00:27:58.760 You want to take it another step?

00:28:00.940 How about your amoxicillin?

00:28:03.920 How about your doxycycline?

00:28:05.820 How about your insulin?

00:28:07.660 How about all the prescription drugs, the antibiotics, everything that's out there?

00:28:12.300 Now, not to go down too much of the big pharma rabbit hole, but some people would argue that

00:28:16.900 it's better if the United States has less prescription drugs.

00:28:19.720 But what about things like antibiotics and insulin that people need to stay alive?

00:28:23.840 What about cancer medication?

00:28:24.960 Where do you think all that stuff is made?

00:28:30.060 Now, suddenly, the United States can't get that.

00:28:33.380 And keep in mind, this is under your most likely scenario.

00:28:37.100 This is the best case scenario in a wartime situation or a, not even a war, but a conflict

00:28:45.300 that breaks out over the question of the status quo of Taiwan, the status of Taiwan.

00:28:51.080 Now, all of a sudden, your foods are going scarce, your stores are going scarce, your drugs are

00:28:58.660 going scarce, medicines are going scarce.

00:29:01.100 You can't get this.

00:29:02.080 Why?

00:29:02.840 Because our elites decided that they could save a buck by having all of this manufactured

00:29:07.020 in China.

00:29:09.580 You know what else they would do?

00:29:11.500 You think the fentanyl problem is bad now?

00:29:13.520 They would be ramping up the fentanyl production in China, and they would go to their cartel

00:29:21.020 buddies, and they would tell them, you need to step up operations tenfold.

00:29:26.320 They would flood as much fentanyl as they could across that southern border, and they'd start

00:29:32.440 doing it out of sheer spite.

00:29:35.560 They would do everything they can to eat away at our own country.

00:29:39.660 Right now, they're in the slow lane.

00:29:42.300 They're doing it, but they're doing it little bit by little bit every year, every day.

00:29:49.360 Now, they're going to switch it over into high gear.

00:29:52.720 They're going to flood our cities with fentanyl.

00:29:54.860 They're going to come for our children.

00:29:58.060 Snapchat, TikTok, they will be contacting your children on TikTok, not the CCP themselves.

00:30:07.760 But where do you think the fentanyl comes from?

00:30:09.480 Where do you think the synthetic drugs, they think they're buying ecstasy, they think they're

00:30:17.920 buying crystal meth, they think they're buying oxycodone, Oxycontin, Adderall.

00:30:25.580 But what are they actually taking?

00:30:27.400 What's actually in those pills?

00:30:29.200 They don't know.

00:30:29.720 They're going to ramp up all of that.

00:30:34.500 While all this is happening, then the Biden administration is going to sit there.

00:30:42.320 Xi Jinping is going to pick up that phone.

00:30:44.820 Maybe there's a summit.

00:30:46.700 And he's going to say to Biden, here's what you're going to agree to.

00:30:50.820 And here are the concessions we're going to take.

00:30:54.820 And they're going to say they're going to renegotiate trade deals.

00:30:58.140 They're going to renegotiate joint ventures.

00:31:00.120 By the way, any U.S. entity that does business in China has to do so through a joint venture.

00:31:07.540 So let's say you're Disney.

00:31:08.560 Let's say you're Apple.

00:31:09.220 If you want to work in China, Elon Musk, Tesla, if you want to work in China, you have to do so 1.00

00:31:16.420 through a joint venture with a local Chinese company.

00:31:20.400 That means that whatever you're doing, right, this is why Foxconn is the manufacturer for Apple.

00:31:25.440 Whatever you're doing, China's getting a cut.

00:31:29.680 China's getting cut in on the deal.

00:31:32.240 And you know what else they're going to do?

00:31:33.760 They're going to ask for a renegotiation of intellectual property laws.

00:31:37.480 They're going to ask for a renegotiation of their ability to copy U.S. products and start

00:31:43.860 flooding them on the world market.

00:31:45.860 They're going to ask for a renegotiation of all of this because they're going to say,

00:31:50.160 we're sick of it and we want your industries to fail and we want you to crumble because

00:31:56.580 we don't care about your industries and your elites anymore because we don't want you to 0.68

00:32:00.960 be the senior partner in this relationship anymore.

00:32:03.360 We want to be the senior partner. 0.99

00:32:04.520 And so we're going to keep your people fat, dumb, and happy, and they're going to continue 0.99

00:32:09.560 buying our products. 0.96

00:32:11.060 And we want to get to the point where it's not just 90% of products in the United States

00:32:15.760 are made in China.

00:32:16.720 It's going to be 100% of products sold in the United States are made in China.

00:32:23.640 All of it.

00:32:24.900 You can forget about sanctions.

00:32:26.640 You can forget about any manufacturing jobs in the United States.

00:32:29.440 You can forget about all that stuff because they are going to want all of it.

00:32:34.520 And in exchange, here's the best part.

00:32:36.300 In exchange, they're never even going to let Taiwan be free. 0.88

00:32:45.000 What they're going to say is we want Taiwan to be a similar setup that we have with Hong Kong.

00:32:52.980 What was that called?

00:32:53.720 One country, two systems.

00:33:00.760 And so they will demand that Biden go to the Taiwanese government and say, we will pull

00:33:09.000 out our security guarantees.

00:33:12.780 We'll pull out our backing.

00:33:14.760 We'll pull out everything with you unless you agree to the CCP's demand of entering into

00:33:21.320 this one country, two systems agreement.

00:33:22.780 So the one country, two systems agreement essentially stated that Hong Kong would retain its individual

00:33:32.920 distinctiveness and its unique status as a city state.

00:33:39.700 But it would cease being a sovereign nation and it would then be incorporated into the sovereignty

00:33:47.660 of China, which meant that the Red Army, People's Liberation Army, the successors of the Red

00:33:53.640 Army, would be able to set up garrisons in Hong Kong.

00:33:56.660 One of the first things that they did.

00:33:57.720 The Chinese Navy would patrol Hong Kong Harbor and that it would be considered Chinese territory.

00:34:07.220 That is exactly what they would tell Taiwan to do.

00:34:11.000 Almost sounds very similar to the demands that were made by Vladimir Putin over Ukraine at

00:34:17.500 the start of the whole thing.

00:34:19.320 Because what did Putin say?

00:34:21.160 The demilitarization of Ukraine.

00:34:24.760 And of course, he didn't mean a full demilitarization because of course there'll be military there,

00:34:31.100 but he only wants one military there, the Russian military.

00:34:35.300 He doesn't want Ukraine to have a military of its own.

00:34:38.080 Or if it does, not one that would pose any threat whatsoever to him.

00:34:43.460 That would be the same thing in Taiwan.

00:34:46.040 Taiwan would have to give up its military.

00:34:48.100 All of the ships, the submarines, the sea mines that have been given and sold to them by the 0.80

00:34:56.700 United States, turn around and say, take your choice.

00:35:01.900 Either they become ours or you have to send them all back. 0.98

00:35:06.200 You have to send every one of them back.

00:35:09.320 Maybe it will provide just compensation.

00:35:11.080 But they would demand this.

00:35:14.800 And the Biden administration, because again, they're looking to save face.

00:35:21.920 They're looking to, in this scenario, they're looking to end things and then go back to the money.

00:35:27.960 And they also know, of course, that the Chinese Communist Party has got the receipts on Biden,

00:35:35.580 Biden, his brother, and his son, and everything that his son did when he was in mainland China,

00:35:44.040 while he was making those deals.

00:35:46.840 You know, people ask me all the time, they say, what about the other stuff that's on the laptop?

00:35:50.860 How come we haven't gotten into that?

00:35:51.940 And I said, you understand the laptop's not the only repository on Hunter Biden.

00:35:56.840 That's the dossier he had on himself.

00:35:58.720 If the laptop is what Hunter Biden has on himself, imagine what the Chinese Communist Party has on this guy.

00:36:08.640 Imagine what the CCP has on Hunter Biden.

00:36:12.240 Imagine their tapes and their agents and their files and their recordings.

00:36:18.060 And they will use every bit of that as leverage on Joe Biden.

00:36:22.020 Kind of like what happened to a certain Ukrainian prosecutor a few years ago who lost his job in exchange for a $1 billion IMF loan.

00:36:34.580 And an investigation just magically disappeared.

00:36:38.020 Kind of the same way as the FBI's investigation that's going on now for four years into Hunter Biden doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

00:36:44.680 So that's the scenario where Biden sues for peace and gives the CCP whatever they want and gives them all of Taiwan.

00:36:57.260 Imagine you wake up one day, President Biden is announcing to the country

00:37:02.620 that the United States Navy is on its way to defend the new independence of the new island nation in the East China Sea, the Republic of Taiwan.

00:37:21.800 And the Chinese Navy has stated that they are not going to allow this.

00:37:30.060 You're essentially looking at the start of World War III.

00:37:32.620 There's no way to sugarcoat this.

00:37:36.420 That a direct conflict between China and the United States is extremely possible with this flashpoint.

00:37:47.720 Japan would get involved.

00:37:49.780 North and South Korea would go at it.

00:37:52.900 China would certainly, Beijing would certainly pull the leash and yank the chain on Kim Jong-un and say,

00:38:00.660 if Japan gets involved, you need to start shooting those nukes off. 0.83

00:38:04.880 You need to start getting those ballistics warmed up. 0.72

00:38:07.580 Because instead of firing those missiles over Japan, we're going to need you to start sending them into Japan, 0.99

00:38:12.620 into the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.

00:38:16.080 Japanese aircraft carriers, anything that they could bring to bear, they'd want North Korea to target. 0.97

00:38:21.000 Then, of course, South Korea gets involved.

00:38:24.380 That peninsula goes up in flames.

00:38:26.960 Day one, China knows that for force protection into the East China Sea, the United States has two key bases,

00:38:36.580 one of which is in Guam, the other of which is in Okinawa.

00:38:41.480 Okinawa is very close to Taiwan, if you look on the map.

00:38:45.620 On day one, they would turn Okinawa into a fireball. 0.98

00:38:54.620 Because China wouldn't necessarily just use cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

00:38:59.080 They would just fire everything they can to overwhelm all the air defense of Okinawa.

00:39:03.840 They would target bases, they would target all military facilities possible, they would do everything they can.

00:39:12.140 Now, of course, Japan would respond to that by saying, you've attacked Japanese territory.

00:39:16.880 So now Japan's getting in. 0.96

00:39:20.200 Philippines would get in, the other Southeast Asian nations would get in.

00:39:23.780 This, of course, would trigger a wider war, potentially, throughout the entire world.

00:39:33.880 Because China would then go put leverage on Russia.

00:39:37.440 And keep in mind, the United States is already, as I said before, and this is Mir Sharma's warning coming real in this scenario, the most deadly scenario.

00:39:45.560 But the United States is already committed to fighting Russia and Ukraine, now opening up a second front in Taiwan.

00:39:58.220 It makes sense.

00:40:02.480 It makes sense for China.

00:40:04.780 Because if there were ever going to be a time that they could defeat the United States in a protracted naval conflict,

00:40:10.860 it could only be while the United States was distracted by another front and another theater.

00:40:18.740 Kind of like what's going on right now.

00:40:22.260 China also has another issue on their hands.

00:40:24.420 Xi Jinping has an issue on those hands.

00:40:26.580 And that's demographics.

00:40:28.700 There's actually a demographic collapse coming in China.

00:40:31.420 They're going off a cliff.

00:40:32.920 And that cliff is called the one-child policy, which started in the late 70s and then continued throughout the 80s.

00:40:40.460 The one-child policy stated that if you had more than one kid, they had to be aborted.

00:40:45.300 They had to be given up.

00:40:47.280 Many were just thrown in the river.

00:40:50.580 Forced abortions were seen across the country.

00:40:53.820 This wasn't under Chairman Mao at all, by the way.

00:40:57.020 Chairman Mao, believe it or not, actually supported large families.

00:41:00.780 But then the Chinese government decided their population was too big.

00:41:04.340 Largest in the world.

00:41:05.760 So they instituted the one-child policy.

00:41:08.820 Forcibly.

00:41:09.220 And so, because of their social engineering experiments, they've gotten to the point now where they're losing their workers, they're losing their military-age males, they're losing, I'm going to pull up the actual statistic here.

00:41:25.080 They will have four retirees for every two workers by 2030.

00:41:33.360 And Xi Jinping knows this.

00:41:39.640 Your laborers, your consumers, your taxpayers, gone.

00:41:42.580 But you've also got another problem.

00:41:47.980 Because under the one-child policy, all those people born in the 80s and early 90s, that is generations.

00:41:58.560 In the U.S. we say millennials, Gen Z.

00:42:00.200 Because the Chinese people favored having a male child, a huge amount of females were aborted.

00:42:15.160 That means in China today, you have tens of millions of more young men than you do young women.

00:42:24.440 And what happens with those tens of millions of young men, can't find a job, can't find a girlfriend, can't find a wife, and they're upset and they're angry.

00:42:37.780 They're looking to fight.

00:42:39.940 They're ready for a war. 0.65

00:42:41.900 So you go into the order of battle, the naval order of battle for China, the Eastern Theater Navy, 18 diesel-powered attack submarines, 13 destroyers, 23 frigates, 24 corvettes, three amphibious transport docks, 16 tank landing ships, five medium landing ships, 38 missile patrol craft.

00:43:06.180 They've got an aircraft carrier that's ported out of Qingdao in the north.

00:43:09.220 They've got another aircraft carrier that's ported out of the south.

00:43:15.940 They would bring everything to bear in a Taiwan fight.

00:43:19.200 Everything.

00:43:20.840 Taiwan, for their part, in a full-scale invasion scenario, because if the U.S. Navy is coming, China knows their best bet, their best bet, is to take over Taiwan, secure it, and then sue for peace afterwards without risking a larger war breaking out and an invasion of the mainland.

00:43:39.220 Or bombing of the mainland.

00:43:41.720 So what would they do?

00:43:43.200 They would trigger an immediate invasion of Taiwan. 0.68

00:43:46.660 While all this is going on in the background, Okinawa is gone.

00:43:50.440 Korean Peninsula is up in flames.

00:43:53.160 Guam is being attacked.

00:43:54.820 Guam is much, much further out.

00:43:56.020 But they want to deny the United States the ability to strike and project power into Asia. 0.56

00:44:06.040 And of course, the U.S. has a fleet in Uquistka in Japan.

00:44:10.380 That forward-deployed fleet is being brought down.

00:44:13.380 That's the home court of the 7th Fleet.

00:44:15.800 It's a fleet where I served.

00:44:18.160 It's also the fleet that's been having issues.

00:44:21.060 Ships running into each other.

00:44:23.980 Why is this?

00:44:26.320 Because you've got those tens of millions of young males in China right now, where the Chinese military is focused on masculinity training.

00:44:35.180 They're focused on hyper-nationalism.

00:44:36.980 What's the U.S. military and the U.S. Navy focused on?

00:44:40.820 How many genders can you fit onto one ship? 1.00

00:44:44.160 Which gender are you today?

00:44:47.000 How woke are you today?

00:44:48.120 Have you taken your woke-ified training, your woke diversity training for the 10th time this year?

00:44:52.480 Do you honestly think that the United States, as it's currently situated, is ready to fight an actual prolonged conflict directly with China? 0.90

00:45:05.840 It's ridiculous.

00:45:06.980 And so Taiwan, for their part, once this invasion kicks off, before the U.S. even gets there, their most likely bet would be to mine the Taiwan Strait. 0.96

00:45:21.040 Just as many naval mines as possible, spread them out throughout the strait, to try to deny the area access to China.

00:45:29.420 But at best, it's a delaying tactic.

00:45:31.200 Because China's got enough minesweepers, and honestly, they can just send freight, they can send barges, they can send anything they want in to clear those waters. 0.64

00:45:41.400 Online in the Navy, every ship can be a minesweeper once.

00:45:44.760 It's kind of like how any ship can be a submarine once.

00:45:48.300 Just once, though.

00:45:50.080 But it doesn't matter.

00:45:51.360 Because at the end of the day, everyone knows who's got the numbers.

00:45:54.620 So if the U.S. Navy wants to project itself, it's going to have to go long, it's going to have to go deep into the East China Sea, into the littoral areas.

00:46:08.400 You're right next to the Chinese coast at that point, and they can bring everything to bear on you. 1.00

00:46:14.320 This would be one of the most dangerous battles in United States Navy history.

00:46:21.080 It would dwarf anything that we saw with Japan. 0.85

00:46:25.260 Because with the Japanese Navy, that was standoff fights, but out in Midway, Coral Sea, places that were far from the mainland.

00:46:34.680 This would be a naval battle, and it depends on where the Chinese Navy came.

00:46:39.560 Because the Chinese Navy doesn't have the ability to project as far as the Japanese Navy did.

00:46:44.100 You would see fighting up close and personal.

00:46:49.500 And would China strike the U.S. mainland?

00:46:52.920 It would if they had to.

00:46:55.840 Would China take out the GPS satellites and wouldn't be able to use them?

00:46:58.900 Would they destroy the U.S. internet?

00:47:00.920 Would they do everything in their power to make sure that they win?

00:47:04.680 And then, of course, would the Chinese government, would the Chinese Communist Party, facing a collapse scenario,

00:47:15.200 would they be willing to use nuclear weapons or allow North Korea to use theirs? 0.57

00:47:23.260 This is Mearsheimer's warning.

00:47:24.860 This is why the United States, as it's currently constituted, needs to deter this type of action from ever taking place.

00:47:39.540 Because when you get into a conflict with another nuclear power, there are no winners.

00:47:49.340 None.

00:47:51.300 You cannot allow this to happen.

00:47:52.900 You have to fix the United States Navy.

00:47:56.880 You have to be a serious deterrent.

00:47:59.900 But you also have to look to de-escalate wherever possible.

00:48:05.500 Maintain the status quo.

00:48:07.360 And little by little, work to decouple from China to restore America's financial and manufacturing base while depriving the Chinese Communist Party of the market that they need to be able to build their one belt, one road. 0.89

00:48:25.480 Understand, the stakes for this are bigger than the stakes of anything that we've faced.

00:48:35.020 That's why I've spent 15 years of my life focused on it.

00:48:37.920 Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission to lay short.

Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - September 04, 2023

EPISODE 553： THE CHINA FILES - WORLD WAR TAIWAN

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