Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - EPISODE 573： THE CHURN - HOW WILL RFK JR. IMPACT TRUMP IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION？

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00:00:24.460 post. So totally free the post. So daily brief. We are in a fifth generational conflict.

00:00:39.400 A commentator, international social media sensation and former Navy intelligence veteran.

00:00:45.740 This is human events with your host, Jack Posobiec. Deliver us from evil.

00:00:54.460 It's a disgraceful trial put forward by an attorney general who's corrupt. We have murders 0.62

00:01:05.740 going all over the city, all over the state at a record level. It's an epidemic. And they

00:01:11.160 waste their time on this with banks that were very happy. They got all their money back.

00:01:17.400 They weren't defrauded. I've been defrauded. With a judge that ruled at a building,

00:01:22.740 that a property is worth 18 billion dollars, 18 million dollars, when in fact it's worth over a

00:01:31.080 billion, probably a billion and a half, it may be worth anything. When many properties which I sold

00:01:38.080 are worth much more than were listed in the financial statements, by double and triple,

00:01:45.240 what do you have to do? And we're wasting our time on this trial. With a Democrat judge from the

00:01:51.300 clubhouses, it's a disgrace. They ought to look for the murderers and the killers that are all over

00:01:56.660 New York killing people. And the violent crime that's being committed in our city and our state

00:02:02.980 is disgraceful. And we're going to be here for months with a judge that already made up his mind.

00:02:09.140 It's ridiculous. He's a Democrat judge. He's an operative. And it's ridiculous. 0.91

00:02:14.160 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec

00:02:20.000 live here, Washington, D.C. Today is October 2nd, 2023. And Odomini just saw President Trump there

00:02:27.020 inside the courthouse at the New York County Courthouse. They're facing off in his civil trial

00:02:34.000 against Leticia James. This is that same trial where you saw the judge late last week put up

00:02:41.740 and really just devalue the Mar-a-Lago property at 18 million, basically already ruling that

00:02:48.720 effectively already ruling, right? This biased Libtar judge effectively already ruling that

00:02:55.960 Trump has committed fraud, even though, of course, we already know that the banks didn't find any

00:03:01.500 fraud. Everything was paid back in full, that there was no fraud to be found. I want to play though,

00:03:08.440 and I want to go to a different story, and we're going to be keeping an eye on that. But just real

00:03:13.840 quick on Trump, it's rare when he's that angry. When you see that, look, can we show his face again,

00:03:22.460 guys? Just pull it up there on the side. When he's speaking after his courtroom appearance,

00:03:32.440 when he came out and spoke to the crowd, I mean, he has this look in his eyes where he's so angry,

00:03:39.640 and you can see it being forced to sit there with everything else that's going on in this country,

00:03:44.520 when everything else that's on the line, with the fate of our very nation itself on the line,

00:03:50.120 and you're forcing him to sit in a courtroom, giving full help to Joe Biden in the middle of

00:03:58.260 a race. I mean, just you look at, and for the radio audience, you know, guys, you've got to see

00:04:06.880 Trump here. This is rare for him. He is not happy. He's extremely unhappy. But there's something else

00:04:14.540 that's going on in this race. Because after the show ended on Friday, there was a huge piece of

00:04:19.920 news that was a major shakeup in this race. We already knew that Trump was facing charges.

00:04:25.020 But now there's a new shakeup. On Friday, I told you that we were entering what I call the churn.

00:04:33.660 The churn is a time when there are tectonic shifts going on. It is a time when alliances are

00:04:41.960 shifting. When everything is in flux, the energy itself is shifting. And then all of a sudden,

00:04:48.700 what happened? RFK announced that he's going to run as an independent. That means no primary

00:04:56.760 straight to the general election. And if you don't think that RFK is going to play a role

00:05:05.560 in taking independent votes and moderate votes away from Trump, then you need to go back to the

00:05:12.880 drawing board and understand it's math, folks. It's as simple as that. And the American political

00:05:17.900 system, how many times do I have to say it? In the American political system, it is not the quality

00:05:23.280 of your votes that matters. It is the quantity. Trump only was prevented from going into the White

00:05:30.260 House by 42,000 votes in three states. Under a percent in three of these states, Arizona, Georgia,

00:05:38.700 Wisconsin. Now you put a guy like RFK on the ballot and guess what? Those margins are going to be harder

00:05:45.460 to get because now the bucket is going to be emptier when you go to fill it up. RFK is going to play a

00:05:55.280 huge role here. And what Trump should do, cut a deal, make him an offer. Do you want HHS? Send

00:06:02.360 RFK after Anthony Fauci, light him up against big pharma, the vaccine manufacturers. This should be

00:06:10.620 RFK's goal. I think it's what he wants. I think he's the perfect man for the job. And I think that

00:06:16.520 Donald Trump is the man who should hire him for that job and give him carte blanche to go after these people.

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00:06:52.440 outlets, a bam ship, nippy, bam, bam, like Human Events with Jack Posobiec.

00:06:57.060 All right, Jack Posobiec here back live Human Events daily. Folks, I want to tell you about

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00:07:59.980 well get it started with blackoutcoffee.com, promo code POSO20. I want to bring in our next guest now,

00:08:05.880 Rich Barris. Rich, now the news broke Friday after the show, after the program, Human Events, ended

00:08:12.680 that RFK, and this had been something that a lot of people were presaging, thinking that it might

00:08:20.220 happen. They were teasing it out. Now it's coming. RFK Jr. has stated that he will be getting into the

00:08:28.060 race as an independent. He's teased it, but we basically know this. You were on Tim Cash that

00:08:32.500 very night, and I heard you making the same comment about Ross Perot. Now we've got this Zogby 0.99

00:08:39.600 poll out this morning showing that, oh, look, look at this. It's exactly what Richard Barris said,

00:08:45.180 that he's polling identically that 19% that Ross Perot famously took in the 1992 election,

00:08:53.580 which swung the election for Bill Clinton. Everybody talks about the blue wall. Everybody

00:08:59.180 talks about all these things that Clinton did, Clinton's achievements. Clinton never got over 50%.

00:09:04.180 And he got 42% in that election. And it was because Ross, 42, 43, right? And it's because

00:09:09.440 Ross Perot got 19%. And then, and it was because he dug away at Republicans in so many of those states

00:09:15.260 that Clinton was able to come in into battlegrounds and then have a plurality and win. And I said that

00:09:20.880 that's exactly how RFK would play out. Then you said it on TimCast. Now Zogby's out this morning.

00:09:26.140 Walk us through a little bit. What do you see as the role of RFK in this race? 0.86

00:09:32.180 We have, Jack, and we will have even more later. I'm sure others will poll it. Conflicting data.

00:09:39.240 I want people to focus on a few things. One is the impact of this on the Rust Belt. What impact

00:09:44.600 RFK will have in there? Because his strength is not the Northeast, like everybody thinks. He's a

00:09:49.420 candidate that has not been where he has polled well, even against Biden in a Democratic nomination.

00:09:54.720 He was getting votes from people who are going to vote, maybe feel a little orphaned,

00:10:00.900 but they're not Kennedy Democrats. That's not who he has been winning. He's been winning

00:10:05.280 the independent vote. The Democrat, solid Democrat vote is behind Joe Biden.

00:10:11.520 So this is something I want to explain to people. In 2016, there was similarities we were seeing with

00:10:17.300 today, which is RFK has a certain vote. If he doesn't get the nomination, huge shares of them said

00:10:24.180 that they would vote for Donald Trump if RFK was not the Democratic nominee. If you're Trump,

00:10:30.780 you wanted those voters. You needed some of those voters in certain places like Michigan and elsewhere.

00:10:37.860 And that is what threw Michigan to Donald Trump. Maybe not Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,

00:10:43.240 but without a doubt. The crossover vote from Bernie's vote that went to Trump in the general

00:10:48.960 is how Trump carried Michigan by 10,000 votes. That is plain as day. And also, it's really simple,

00:10:57.360 Jack, you know, the bird's eye view here. There are two outsiders in the race that you have to look

00:11:03.360 at elections like lanes, right? And there's already Donald Trump in the race against Joe Biden,

00:11:08.220 and Biden is the insider. You throw another outsider in there, and that's how insiders win.

00:11:14.060 And there's not that much. There's not enough outside vote.

00:11:18.460 Two anti-establishment candidates, two viable anti-establishment candidates sitting in the

00:11:25.880 same lane. What you'll have is a split in that anti-establishment vote that otherwise could have

00:11:31.480 come together. We saw this in the Bernie bro to Trump supporter pipeline in 2016 that you're talking

00:11:37.100 about here. If you've got somebody else who's acting essentially as a sponge for all of that

00:11:44.040 support that's sitting in those races. And by the way, there's a reason the Democrats haven't said a

00:11:49.580 single word about blocking RFK since the minute this news dropped. You notice all the attacks on RFK

00:11:56.680 have disappeared since he said that he wants to come in as an independent. Nobody's calling for him

00:12:01.980 to be suspended anymore. Nobody's calling for him to be taken down. Nobody's calling for him to be

00:12:06.960 censored. No, all of a sudden, you are going to see what, and the neocon donors, they're salivating

00:12:12.020 about this. Trust me. And ballot access is a hard thing to get. People understand how hard ballot

00:12:16.400 access actually is to achieve in 50 out of 50 states. Very difficult. But I guarantee you, you will see

00:12:22.460 you in a party establishment law firms and activists getting involved, making sure even even behind the

00:12:30.640 scenes on the RFK campaign to try to make him get onto the ballot in all of these states, because I'm

00:12:36.780 telling you right now, RFK will operate like Ross Perot, where he's picking up that anti-establishment

00:12:44.420 vote, people who may have considered Trump. But if they're given an alternative, because they don't

00:12:49.720 want to vote for Biden, and if they're given an alternative that they view as potentially viable, that is

00:12:55.920 not Trump or Biden, they'll go for RFK. But those- Jack, he's a populist too.

00:13:01.640 How critical, exactly, he's a populist-

00:13:04.120 He's a populist.

00:13:05.100 Rich, how critical is this voting block for Trump to win over? Especially when we're talking about the

00:13:11.060 Rust Belt, because quite frankly, that's the only, that is the key battleground of the country.

00:13:15.440 That's it. I mean, that's what I was going to say. What we're really, what is really in question

00:13:20.200 here is how this is going to play out in the Rust Belt, because Trump needs, if he gets Arizona and

00:13:25.600 Georgia, he's going to need at least Wisconsin. But because he is Donald Trump, he plays in

00:13:30.820 Pennsylvania. He plays in Michigan. It's very critical. And aside from RFK being a populist,

00:13:37.060 and again, folks, I mean, we're going to poll it, and I'll let the data speak for itself. I'm just

00:13:40.960 telling you what I've seen in the primary polling. And then we have been uniquely asking people

00:13:45.800 from the primary to the general about their voting behavior and their preferences. And

00:13:50.640 there are votes there that play out, especially in the Rust Belt, that Donald Trump needed.

00:13:55.620 In a close race in Wisconsin, he needed 30% of RFK's disaffected vote. In a close race in Michigan,

00:14:02.620 he needs that 30% disaffected vote. With RFK on that ballot, he's not going to get it. And then

00:14:08.600 there's the importance of the hive mind, Jack, right? Aside from them both being

00:14:12.080 populous. We talk about this a lot on the show. And I don't think people, you know,

00:14:16.460 judging by the reaction to this, I don't think people understand the hive mind, what we're talking

00:14:21.520 about when we talk about Democrats, like the hive mind. He, what is his plan? According to Mediaite,

00:14:28.820 and the campaign is not, you know, denied it. His plan is to attack the DNC. They're going to run

00:14:33.540 ads attacking the DNC. He already had a problem branching out into Democrats and traditional

00:14:40.280 Democrat demographics. His problem was not the moderate independent. That was not the issue for

00:14:45.640 him. His issue was that he couldn't break into young people. He couldn't break into certain non-white 0.99

00:14:50.520 voters. He couldn't break into registered and self-ID Democrats. That was his issue. And so when

00:14:56.780 he starts attacking the DNC, it's a hive mind. They're all going to further ostracize him.

00:15:04.260 He will be seen as someone, whether it's true or not, they'll paint him as someone who's trying to

00:15:09.420 subvert Joe Biden, subvert the Democrats' chance, help Donald Trump win this election. And then that

00:15:16.760 will turn all of those Democrats solidly behind Joe Biden. They will move solidly behind Joe Biden,

00:15:23.460 the same way that Trumpers who- Or Newsom, or whoever the candidate is, right? It doesn't matter

00:15:29.560 who the candidate is. And by the way, it's not about the solid, it's not just about the solidity

00:15:34.380 of the hive mind, but you're 100% correct on that. It's also about the ballot machine that they have

00:15:40.680 built for the Democrat party. That ballot machine is only going for one candidate. They're not going to

00:15:46.800 go for somebody else, all right? So if you put Newsom there, it'll be Newsom. If you put Biden there,

00:15:51.520 it'll be Biden. Kamala Harris, if you put the, what's her name, this Maryland abortionist that 1.00

00:15:56.980 is now going to be a senator from California, you could put her there. They'll make her the 1.00

00:16:02.380 candidate. The ballots will go to whatever the name is. They're probably already printed. You just put

00:16:07.460 a little sticker on top of them. That's not the point. The point is because this race takes place 0.74

00:16:14.080 on the margins. Remember, 80,000 votes in 2016 as Hillary's president. 42,000 votes in 2020. But

00:16:22.040 let's say ballots, right? I'll say ballots. 42,000 ballots in 2020 go the other way, right? Regardless

00:16:28.300 of how they got there, go the other way. And Donald Trump is your president for the second term. This is

00:16:34.440 how they've done this. And so when you're talking about these numbers nationwide, when you're talking

00:16:40.620 about these numbers in certain areas of the country, it's the margins are so slim. And they'll

00:16:46.360 say, oh, well, look, he only took 2% in the Zogby poll. He only took 2%. That's all you need. All you

00:16:52.300 needed was 2%. Rich, it's like that South Park episode, man. How do I reach these kids?

00:16:58.780 Jack, we're talking about three states that were like two-tenths of a percentage point.

00:17:02.720 How do I reach these kids? Yeah. This is how elections are decided, despite the national

00:17:09.520 numbers. Biden was way ahead nationally. And in the Electoral College, that was not the case. This

00:17:15.360 was two-tenths in Wisconsin. This was 12,000 votes in this state, 8,000 votes or 10,000 votes in that

00:17:21.060 state. That's how this works. Margins are everything. I mean, the 30-plus percent that told us that I will

00:17:30.860 vote for RFK in the primary, or at least I support RFK for the Democratic nomination. But if he doesn't

00:17:37.620 get it, I'm going to vote for Donald Trump. That was a key vote. And that's why it was smart for

00:17:44.040 Trump to say nice things about him. Don't go overtly and support him, but you don't want to

00:17:48.780 piss his supporters. You're basically starting to cultivate a relationship with soon-to-be

00:17:55.880 disaffected voters. So they have a place to land when their guy gets shafted, which is what

00:18:01.720 happened. Him doing this now puts him on the ballot. Maybe not all of them will stay with RFK,

00:18:08.560 and they'll say, look, it's either going to be Trump or Biden, so I will go with Trump. But maybe,

00:18:12.920 Jack, that falls from 33 to 15. And on the margins, that sucks. Yeah. 0.98

00:18:18.640 This is the margins. And it's the margin of victory versus the margin of fraud, as we've

00:18:24.540 been talking about for so long here on Human Events Daily. Stay tuned. We're going to come

00:18:28.720 back with Richard Barris handicapping this new, and it's an absolute game change, right? It's an

00:18:34.460 absolute game change in the 2024 election. And if anyone isn't telling you that, then they're not

00:18:40.400 telling you the truth. Today, you know, that you talk about influences. These are influences,

00:18:48.160 and they're friends of mine. Jack Posobiec. Where's Jack? He's got a great job.

00:18:56.960 All right, Jack Posobiec. We're back here, Human Events Daily. Folks, do you ever get the feeling

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00:19:59.400 It's time for you to prepare for what is coming. Mypatriotsupply.com. All right. I want to play this

00:20:04.940 clip now that we have of RFK actually talking about, well, this very dynamic here in the race.

00:20:12.960 Let's go ahead, guys. Yeah. And then the other thing is that I take more votes from President

00:20:18.040 Trump than I do from President Biden. Right. So why would that help them? Yeah, it's not helping them.

00:20:23.240 Yeah. So, Rich, there's RFK himself admitting it. He's stating, based obviously on the polling that

00:20:31.380 he's seen internally from his own operation, that he takes more votes from Trump than he does from

00:20:38.020 Biden. And I've seen some of these other polls out there. They're saying, well, what about the

00:20:40.880 leaners and this? It's no, no. We're talking about the gross number. People want to play these little

00:20:46.140 games about this bucket and this bucket. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. What matters is how

00:20:51.720 many ballots you get into the ballot box. That is what America has turned into. This country will

00:20:58.180 be decided, and it's a series of boxes, right? The ballot box, the drop box, and the mailbox.

00:21:04.100 The ballot box, the drop box, and the mailbox. I don't know how many times I have to say it. Rich,

00:21:09.680 do you think RFK is lying, or do you think he knows what he's talking about?

00:21:13.720 No, I think he had this done. Zogby did this for him. He's been polling for him. So,

00:21:18.560 Zogby also is firmly now outside of the Democratic establishment. He ran afoul of them in 2004

00:21:25.020 during the Bush v. Kerry race. They're no fans of Zogby, let me tell you. It's like how some of 0.95

00:21:31.440 the Republican establishment feel about me, right? So, Zogby has no reason to make this look better

00:21:38.940 for Trump, as opposed to others, which I think is a nice way I'm trying to say something. And by the

00:21:46.840 way, the other conflicting information that we have, forget about the leaners, Jack. I mean, 0.90

00:21:52.200 we're talking about a small share of the vote that is truly persuadable. And of those truly

00:21:56.600 persuadable voters, Trump loses more than Biden does with RFK and the race. Even in those that look

00:22:05.200 better than the Zogby poll for Trump. If you look into the Zogby, and I would love for them to release 0.98

00:22:10.080 more of the information, all of these pollsters, it would be nice if you put out your crosstabs,

00:22:14.400 like everyone else is expected to do. But in the memo, what it says is that he does pull some non-white 0.91

00:22:20.400 from Biden, but it's not enough to counter how much RFK is pulling of the white vote from Trump.

00:22:27.200 Again, back to the Rust Belt. Folks, what share of the electorate in Michigan is white?

00:22:34.560 80 plus percent in these states. You lose a few points from the white vote,

00:22:40.240 and it makes an enormous difference in the statewide totals. Same thing, ditto for Pennsylvania,

00:22:47.120 ditto for Wisconsin, which actually has more Asians than the other two states.

00:22:51.840 So, and Biden's taking none of that from, I mean, excuse me, RFK is taking none of the Asian other 0.97

00:22:58.480 vote from Joe Biden. So it's critical when we're talking about the Rust Belt. And if, again,

00:23:04.400 we're going to poll this, folks. And when it comes to this stuff, I believe myself and my own work more

00:23:11.360 than everybody else. And we'll also put West on that questionnaire as well, because we'll do it both

00:23:18.080 ways with and without West. But, you know, at this point, I wouldn't be stunned if West takes,

00:23:26.800 obviously, some from Biden, but RFK takes slightly more from Trump. I mean, we'll find out,

00:23:32.720 Jack, but white is white. Demographics are demographics. The Rust Belt is a very unique set

00:23:38.800 of demographics in the country where Republicans do very well, obviously, with the white vote,

00:23:44.960 but they need an outsized share of it, especially among the working class in order to carry those

00:23:50.720 states. If there's the president of an independent candidate, it was a populist who appeals to non-college

00:23:56.480 votes. Then they pull a little bit away from the Republican. That's it. That's the ballgame.

00:24:02.160 It's the ballgame. Right. That means so. So what you're saying is, you know, and to avoid the

00:24:07.520 Kathy Newman. Right. So to summarize, if Trump doesn't win the Rust Belt, if Trump doesn't win

00:24:14.720 the Rust Belt, it's over. Right. It's over. He has no path to the press. Do you see, all right,

00:24:21.440 just off the top of your head, do you see any path to the presidency for Trump without any Rust Belt

00:24:25.680 state? There was just a poll out that showed him either tied or slightly ahead in Virginia. I believe

00:24:32.560 that, like, I believe there's a hole in the back of my head right now. Virginia is, you know,

00:24:38.480 come on. I mean, in a landslide. I shared that one, Grinch, this morning. Come on,

00:24:44.160 you're breaking my heart. You need you need a combination of Arizona and Georgia with either

00:24:51.600 Wisconsin or you could lose one of those two Sun Belt states. But then it would make it even more

00:24:56.080 important to win the Rust Belt because you would need Michigan and Pennsylvania or one or both to offset

00:25:01.680 those losses. There is no. That's why Donald Trump is uniquely the strongest candidate on the

00:25:06.640 Republican side in this race. I don't really care what anybody says and repeating their stale talking

00:25:12.080 points. Donald Trump is the only candidate who plays in the Rust Belt. And that is what makes him

00:25:17.680 uniquely stronger than any other Republican. If RFK is in that race, it threatens to take that away

00:25:23.360 from him. There's just Jack. I mean, you know, again, we'll pull it and we'll lay it out for everybody

00:25:28.640 to see. But I don't see how RFK doesn't hurt Trump. It can. It would still be close without a doubt.

00:25:39.200 But he's not getting support from the Northeast, Jack. He's not getting support from the West.

00:25:44.800 We've been doing these points for months now. He's getting it from the Midwest and Southern and some

00:25:50.400 Southern states. Where are you going to go? Right. If you don't get any of the Rust Belt,

00:25:56.240 explain, okay, you get the, we'll give, we'll give them Ohio, right? We'll give, I'll even give,

00:25:59.920 I would say Ohio, give them Iowa, give them Ohio. Okay, fine. Where do you, then you've,

00:26:05.920 you've got to go out West is the only place you can go. And now you're at, now you're in Nevada.

00:26:10.720 Now you're in Colorado. Now you're in New Mexico. Those are all steep uphill climbs. They are very,

00:26:16.640 very steep uphill climbs. And even, even so I get it. Nevada, Nevada, every once in a while

00:26:23.360 comes close. What'd you say Maine? Well, I mean, Maine doesn't, it just doesn't have enough votes

00:26:28.080 though. It doesn't have, that's what I was going to say. On Tim cast, we brought up the examples of,

00:26:32.400 the example of Maine. The problem with that is it just doesn't have the electoral juice. If you lose

00:26:37.280 a state like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it doesn't have the, you know, you always want to,

00:26:42.480 you want to fight for every electoral vote, of course, but it can't offset losing one of those states.

00:26:47.280 Uh, Nevada, even as well. I mean, I do think Donald Trump could win the state this time around. And

00:26:52.640 I'm well, I've long been a silver state skeptic for Republicans, but his improvement among Hispanics 1.00

00:26:58.480 is so dramatic that he could really do something special in Clark County that others can't do.

00:27:03.200 So I do think it's up for grabs this time. However, again, throw Maine in there, Jack throw

00:27:08.320 Nevada in there. Maybe New Mexico and Colorado get super close, uncomfortably close for Joe Biden.

00:27:14.400 I just don't see it. Even according to me, you give me Nevada. You give me Nevada. Well,

00:27:19.520 and then actually, you know, what happens is, is what this also does. Rich is this is something

00:27:26.160 that we've talked about on the show before, because if this throws the entire race askew,

00:27:32.720 let's talk about this scenario for a second there. So let's say, let's say Trump does win Nevada

00:27:38.160 just for sake of argument. Then Trump also wins Maine. I love Maine. I've got family in

00:27:41.600 Ogunquit, right? Ogunquit Wells. Love the blueberry coffee, blackoutcoffee.com.

00:27:45.840 Um, it's, it's one of the most gorgeous states in the union is one of the best places to spend

00:27:49.600 your summer. I totally understand why Tucker goes up there all the time. What happens though,

00:27:54.320 Rich? Because in that scenario, Biden wins the Rust Belt. Trump wins a couple of other states,

00:28:00.320 but Biden doesn't get to 270 and Trump doesn't get to 270. Now, what are we looking at?

00:28:07.920 You go to the house for that. I mean, that's what that, that's ultimately what happens. Uh,

00:28:13.520 again, and it could that, I mean, that that's a scenario that could play out. I just looking

00:28:17.920 around the map to see, well, where else would there be an opportunity just, you know, considering who

00:28:22.880 RFK appeals to. And I brought up Virginia before Jack, could that stop it from going to the house?

00:28:28.160 Um, no, because who is, yeah, look at this. I'm, I'm on 270. If, if, if Biden, even if Biden wins,

00:28:34.960 all of New England and Nevada, it's you're still, the Dems are all that it's okay. Biden can just

00:28:42.800 get over 270. He can just get over it. But if you flip one of those states, now we're, yeah,

00:28:48.320 now you're looking at a house scenario. Now you're looking at a house representative. That's how close

00:28:52.720 this election is. People don't seem, seem to understand that these are very tight electoral

00:28:57.360 situations we're in. And there's a bunch of reasons for that. It has to do with the census,

00:29:01.600 the census has to do the reapportionment, et cetera, et cetera. But these are very,

00:29:06.000 very close races. And you're saying, oh, well, Trump could lose this state, that state,

00:29:09.840 he could lose this group, that group. No, no, no, that's, that's, that's the reason that so much

00:29:16.800 money is being redirected to these areas. So Rich, if it goes to the house, do you think,

00:29:21.920 do you think then that, okay, so it goes to the current house, right? Or the new house?

00:29:26.160 Uh, yeah, right. And there will, there will be some changing in seats. Uh,

00:29:32.880 no, I think we're past all those specials that are really competitive. So you're looking at

00:29:36.640 generally the makeup now, unless of course they oust Matt Gaetz, you know, we'll say, but, uh,

00:29:41.680 yeah, which is, you know, I'm not going to get into that. I'll let you deal with that in another

00:29:44.720 segment, but you know, there are some things that can happen. Yeah. I mean, I, I don't,

00:29:50.240 I don't see, I don't see Gates getting ousted. No, me either. But this is when that stuff,

00:29:55.360 Jack starts to really become so critical and important. You know, you just can't,

00:30:00.960 why do you think Democrats have all of a sudden stopped calling for Bob Menendez, uh, to be, uh,

00:30:06.480 to, to, to leave the Senate? Um, they obviously know and understand the balance of power.

00:30:11.920 Somebody's doing some counting. That's right. Now that bind down that Feinstein passed away,

00:30:17.520 they, they, well, and also because Jeff and drew just announced that he's taking a look at that seat.

00:30:22.160 When suddenly you've got a viable Republican that could win statewide in, in New Jersey,

00:30:26.880 which by the way, a lot shows you that, that Chris Christie hasn't even floated the idea

00:30:31.680 of running because he would get laughed out of New Jersey. Rich, I love doing these segments

00:30:36.320 with you because people, people say it's, it's prognostication. It's, it's,

00:30:40.480 it's rich gnostication, but we have to go there every once in a while because these are the times

00:30:45.760 we live in. Where can people go to follow the latest from the people's pundit?

00:30:49.440 That's it. People's pundit.locals.com. Check out the public polling project. We're going to pull,

00:30:54.320 like I said, we're going to pull this real soon. We'll find out, dig into it.

00:30:57.280 People's pundit.locals.com. Thanks, Jack. People's pundit.locals.com. What happens

00:31:03.280 if Trump loses the race because of RFK? Blocks it. Cut a deal. Just cut a deal. Give him HHS.

00:31:10.160 Let him go after Fauci. We'd love it.

00:31:12.000 We're about the boring people at your office. I'm trying to listen to the new human events

00:31:19.200 with Jack Posobiec.

00:31:20.400 All right, Jack Posobiec back here, live human events daily. We've got Lieutenant Colonel Tony

00:31:26.880 Schaefer now on joining us. Lieutenant Colonel Schaefer, from the last time we had you on,

00:31:31.760 we talked about how, how you doing? We were talking about how the Ukraine,

00:31:37.360 the Ukraine funding had become this sort of political football within the United States.

00:31:44.000 Congress had really become the sticking point. Now we did end up getting that clean CR put through,

00:31:50.400 but let me just tell you, just ask you, or I'll just ask you from a perspective of a guy who's been

00:31:55.440 in DC as long as you have, did you ever think that we would get to the point where the House GOP and the

00:32:02.880 Senate GOP would be working that closely and that hard together, where they would push through a bill

00:32:09.040 that actually omitted all funding for Ukraine. They said, this isn't going to go through. We'll

00:32:14.560 fund the rest of the government. That'll be fine. But Ukraine funding is stripped out. And I think a

00:32:19.280 lot of people, and I understand there's the Speaker McCarthy fight and a bunch of stuff that's going on

00:32:23.920 right now, but I actually think people are downplaying this Ukraine funding. Talk to me about how big

00:32:30.400 of a watershed moment this is. Well, I think it's, uh, the practical situation, uh, that we face

00:32:39.120 kind of being reflected in, in, uh, congressional thinking. Finally, uh, again, I just may be,

00:32:45.200 let me be very clear on this. Cause I always feel I need to clarify. Uh, my job is to not, uh, be

00:32:51.360 emotional. It is not to take sides. My job is to call balls and strikes. We've been talking Jack for

00:32:56.720 months about the fact that, uh, the war in Ukraine is not going well. Uh, if you look at the maps,

00:33:04.720 uh, the BBC kind of situational map, the war maps, you, you know, you're an intelligence officer,

00:33:09.920 they have situation maps, they map everything out. If you look at the 4th of June and you look at,

00:33:18.000 uh, the 2nd of October or the 4th of October, you're going to see very little change. So, uh,

00:33:23.120 all that money that's been spent so far didn't have any positive effect on the war. So I think

00:33:29.040 most people now recognize Jack, like you and I've been talking about, you got to think about

00:33:34.080 doing something different, no matter what side you're on. If you're pro Russian, if you're pro 0.55

00:33:38.000 Ukraine, uh, the situation regarding the battle hasn't changed. So I think it's one of those 0.98

00:33:44.000 situations where Congress, members of Congress finally recognize that it's time to rethink this.

00:33:50.320 And the budget was a good excuse. Uh, I think most of these guys and gals, unfortunately, Jack,

00:33:56.800 don't want to be held to any position that is members of Congress. So this is a good excuse to

00:34:02.000 say, Oh, budget, we can't do this. So I think that's why you finally saw positive action. And I

00:34:07.280 think this is going to, to, to result in more action to diminish the direct support, the congressional,

00:34:12.880 uh, funding of the war in Ukraine.

00:34:15.280 Well, then Tony, let's talk about those, that battlefield situation, because as we've seen

00:34:20.480 here in this, um, the New York times came out over the weekend and said that over the court and

00:34:27.280 Elon Musk even commented on this, that over the course of the last, uh, two months, it looks as

00:34:32.320 though they said, Ukraine has made some marginal, um, pickups in the South, but Russia has actually

00:34:40.000 increased their holdings in the North where they aren't even really conducting an offensive,

00:34:46.320 which means that during the Ukraine counter offensive, Russia has been able to take more

00:34:52.240 territory in an attrition fight like this. And this is a dangerous question, but I'm going to have to

00:34:58.160 answer it. I'm going to have to ask it. Does Russia have any incentive to negotiate at this point?

00:35:04.320 No, no, Jack, of course not. Look, I'm a Reagan guy. And I always believed that like the Reagan folks

00:35:11.280 did, uh, my friends and mentors that you must always attempt as best you can to negotiate a

00:35:18.320 position of strength. Uh, that's how they were able to leverage, uh, our position, the U S position over

00:35:26.480 Russia and win the cold war by essentially having a sufficiently leveraged position to be effective.

00:35:34.080 There's no effectiveness in the Ukrainian position at this point. As a matter of fact,

00:35:38.160 uh, I think there's ample evidence of three things. First, uh, Ukraine is going to have to start 0.76

00:35:46.000 reconfiguring its battlefield forces for the defense. That is to stay to your point, especially in the

00:35:52.000 north. You, the Russians are about to return to the offensive. That's a very dangerous thing. If 0.57

00:35:56.960 you believe that Ukraine is, is, uh, about to prevail cause they're not. Secondly, relating to the

00:36:03.520 funding, uh, many other nations besides the United States have started to rethink this. Uh, I think that,

00:36:11.120 uh, Poland's already said they're not going to do it. I think, uh, Hungary, I think there's several

00:36:15.600 other nations, which are neighbors have said, yeah, we're out, we're done.

00:36:18.640 Well, and, and, and, and Tony, not only did, did Poland not say they're not going to do it,

00:36:23.760 but what all, what happened? Oh, right. Poland, which is facing a general election,

00:36:27.840 a parliamentary election in two weeks, all of a sudden gets an EU funded protest right on the

00:36:34.320 streets of Warsaw for the very first time. Only one week after the president came out,

00:36:39.680 the president's member of law and justice came out and said that Ukraine is a,

00:36:42.800 then Zelensky specifically is like a drowning man trying to pull everyone else down with him.

00:36:46.960 And then they announced they, they announced that they're going to cut arms sales. Now,

00:36:50.400 suddenly what do we see in the streets of Warsaw? Oh, the opposition, the anti-government and the

00:36:55.840 pride flags are everywhere. The EU flags are everywhere. We need to go after this. No,

00:37:00.160 then what they want to do is they want to flood Poland with migrants. They, and then they, 0.79

00:37:04.480 the same way they do with Italy and everywhere in Western Europe. And they want to turn Poland into 0.99

00:37:08.240 the rape capital of Europe, uh, take the title away from Sweden, uh, who has fought very hard to get 0.69

00:37:13.520 it, even though many of us told them not to. And then the next thing they want to do is make sure

00:37:17.680 that pull it because Poland is the linchpin in all of this, not only for the, uh, security and 0.91

00:37:22.880 military concerns vis-a-vis Ukraine, but also for what Tony, the energy concerns.

00:37:28.640 Well, energy. And then the third point I was about to move to is the, the, the economic issues,

00:37:33.600 which relate to everything from energy to, uh, corruption. One of the things that I think

00:37:38.480 you're aware of already is that there was a leaked memo straight strategy memo to, to political saying,

00:37:43.840 oh, there's, there's actually all sorts of shenanigans going on with corruption. Really?

00:37:50.000 So, uh, it's like that scene in, uh, in, um, uh, uh, Casablanca. I'm shocked to find gambling going on

00:37:56.640 here. Right.

00:38:00.480 Gambling here. Yeah. Yeah. So, so, oh, and of course, Ukraine says, well, we'll, we'll fight

00:38:06.880 corruption. If you pay us $5 billion, like, okay, sure. Uh, but wait, but wait, let's,

00:38:11.680 let's go through this because this is a strategic leak. It was a strategic leak to Politico. I believe

00:38:17.360 by the Biden administration that all of a sudden when Zelensky seems like he's worn out as welcome,

00:38:22.400 what do we find that the state department had this secret document that they had put an unclassed

00:38:28.000 version up on the, on the state department website with no fanfare. But then all of a sudden we get one

00:38:32.800 of these, you know, secret documents, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. That's that's in the headlines of

00:38:38.160 Politico, essentially saying that Biden views the number one threat to Ukraine, not as Russia,

00:38:44.160 but as corruption from who? Oh, that's right. Zelensky's own administration. That means the

00:38:51.680 writing might be on the wall for Mr. Vlad. What do you think's going on there, Tony?

00:38:56.080 Well, first off, let's take a, put it in perspective. I think it's all, uh, this is all,

00:39:02.240 uh, Kabuki theater. Biden knows about the corruption. He's benefited from it. I mean,

00:39:07.440 look, this is one of the things that happened. I mean, come on, look, it's, it's, it's a Reese's

00:39:13.020 cup moment. You've got the Biden corruption, the peanut butter with, uh, the Ukrainian corruption,

00:39:18.840 the chocolate. It's, it's, it's kind of, you know, uh, a Reese's cup of, of evil. So of course

00:39:24.560 they, are we doing Halloween puns already? It's our first show of October. We're already on

00:39:28.460 Halloween, Halloween puns. But that's the point. It's like they're, they're, they're actually

00:39:33.740 trying to put it to your point. They're leaking. This is, it's like a benefit. Oh, there's

00:39:37.680 corruption. We have to focus on corruption. No, this, this is more of, of this administration

00:39:44.020 trying to essentially move forward with the idea that we, the United States must be involved

00:39:49.360 in the future of, of, of you. And remember black rocks lining up to go in there to rebuild 0.99

00:39:55.280 the Clinton global global initiative. So what they're trying to do here is say, well, since

00:40:00.420 there's so much corruption, only we can sort that out much like we did in Afghanistan. The 0.67

00:40:05.480 whole idea is that we, this is this white man's burden. This is the racism of the left

00:40:10.840 on full display. We, we must be the ones who come in and, and fix these things. Uh, it's an

00:40:16.900 arrogance, uh, uh, combined with all sorts of hubris. And, but they're trying to, to

00:40:22.660 lay these, these little clues saying, Oh, there's all this corruption. We must, and we

00:40:28.420 must protect our investment. And that's what they're going to go with right now. It's like,

00:40:31.820 well, we spent all this money. We got to protect the investment and we got to rebuild it. So

00:40:35.260 I think that's where they're going with it right now. Well, I think you're exactly right.

00:40:39.300 And if Zelensky becomes more of a liability to the same interests than a benefit, then they'll

00:40:46.260 get rid of him and they'll find, they'll take one of the other generals. They'll take

00:40:49.540 one of the other ministers and they'll replace him. And suddenly they'll say, Oh, you know,

00:40:53.860 it turns out the corruption, they'll bring up all the Panama paper stuff again. This is

00:40:58.100 how they've been using this corruption on Zelensky plus the threat of the Azov battalion

00:41:02.380 and all these other guys that, that member Erdogan wasn't going to send the Azov stall

00:41:07.020 guys back until after the war had ended, but then whoops, they event, they somehow just made

00:41:11.380 it all the way back. Look, it's the carrot and the stick that they're using to get

00:41:15.480 Zelensky to play ball. And if he doesn't, they will make him dance. However they want.

00:41:22.080 Remember the guy's an actor. That's what he was hired for in the first place. Stay tuned.

00:41:25.300 We're coming back. Human events daily, all the Ukraine updates. What does it mean? Congress,

00:41:30.660 will they get their funding through or not the corruption? What's happening? Stay tuned.

00:41:37.080 I'm always listening to human events with Jack Posobiec.

00:41:39.480 All right, Jack Posobiec back here. Human events daily. Now here's a question, Tony. We just had

00:41:47.860 this crazy situation up in Canada where essentially their speaker just had to step down over accidentally

00:41:56.580 praising a member of the Waffen SS, Zelensky, Trudeau in the room. Now Politico Europe has this

00:42:05.520 huge. The cleanup crew has come in. They've got this headline out today. Well, just because you

00:42:09.800 fought against the USSR doesn't make you a Nazi. In fact, then other people have been pointing out

00:42:16.340 as well that they said, hold on a minute. We're celebrating veterans who fought against the

00:42:20.500 Russians, but weren't the Russians on our side in World War II. So why are we celebrating people 0.93

00:42:25.940 that were on the side of the axis to begin with, regardless of which specific unit they were in

00:42:31.760 at all? Where does this come from? And this is your great Orwellian moment of we've always been

00:42:36.440 at war with East Asia. And this, of course, has been used and has been one of the slogans and

00:42:44.600 raison d'etre of Putin from the very beginning of all this, that essentially that Ukraine is a Nazi 0.60

00:42:50.120 regime, and you just handed him a massive propaganda victory. How are the Russians responding 0.78

00:42:56.080 to all this? Well, Medvedev, the former, I guess the current prime minister and former president,

00:43:02.500 I mean, they switch back and forth. Medvedev has actually said... Yeah, he's kind of seen as the

00:43:06.320 waiting in the wings guy, like the next president sort of. Yeah. So he's basically come out and said

00:43:11.700 flat out that they're calling for regime change of the fascist regime in Kiev. So it's kind of like,

00:43:19.500 man. Wow. If you couldn't have stepped in it more readily than you did in Canada, I don't know. I

00:43:25.740 mean, look, Jack, this has this, that moment, that moment of Zelensky with Trudeau, with this member

00:43:35.160 of the Third Reich who actually engaged as a member of one of the units who was implementing

00:43:41.040 the final solution. Hitler's, the final, I can't even remember how they phrased it, the final question

00:43:48.580 to the, the final answer to the Jewish question or something, however it was phrased by the Germans.

00:43:52.960 But that guy, that, that, that Nazi, I'll say it because we can now, because that guy 0.91

00:43:58.480 was a member of one of the units, which was actually engaged, engaged in ethnic cleansing and 0.52

00:44:04.360 the murder of Jews. So it is what it is, what it is. And so the Russians are always ready to pounce on 1.00

00:44:12.100 any unforced error. Jack, this is the unforced error of the century where this, this incident plays

00:44:19.560 into everything the Russians have been saying from the beginning. And now to reinforce the 0.60

00:44:25.420 perception at home in Russia, that the fight that they, the Russians are engaged in is, is

00:44:31.400 legitimate. It's necessary. It just plays to the home front. I think you're going to see a lot of

00:44:37.380 Russian support. They were about 40,000 troops short of the 400,000 they were seeking. Katie,

00:44:43.960 bar the door. They're going to use this for purposes of trying to get that last 40,000.

00:44:48.560 And this circles back to the beginning of our conversation. What are the Russians going to do 0.81

00:44:52.900 with 400,000 for recruitment? They're going to use it for recruitment. Tony. Yeah. You said before,

00:44:59.780 you said before, and this, it's very interesting to me that they're directly targeting Zelensky's

00:45:03.100 regime right now, because you said before that you thought that the original plan was that this,

00:45:08.460 you know, and Putin called it a special military operation, that this was supposed to be a,

00:45:12.480 you know, a two to three week operation to basically force the hand of Kiev to, and, and

00:45:18.560 sure, there's questions about the Donbass region, but really the big enchilada was staying out of

00:45:23.560 NATO. The goal originally was two to three weeks, get them to say that we're, we're going to maintain

00:45:28.320 military neutrality, stay out of NATO, and then pull back. You know, obviously that didn't happen

00:45:33.080 because the, and, and by the way, we were told, and this has been, the story's been reported so many

00:45:36.740 times now that Zelensky wanted to agree to that, that he was willing to do that by March,

00:45:42.480 of 2022, and they were going to fly down to Istanbul and do this. Then Boris Johnson comes

00:45:47.640 over and a slew of others, and they blow up the negotiations. That's why they're in this situation

00:45:52.180 now. But if you remember early on, and I tracked this, that the Russians were never calling for

00:45:58.960 Zelensky to step down. They were never calling for his ouster. Putin told Naftali Bennett on the

00:46:04.280 phone, the prime minister of Israel, that he would not target Zelensky. Then Zelensky starts going and

00:46:09.160 doing all those videos out on the street. What you've just identified could potentially be a

00:46:15.240 strategic shift on the goals of the Kremlin because now they actually are saying that they want

00:46:22.200 the entire regime gone. What does that mean? Well, it means that the very fabric of the war

00:46:28.080 has changed dramatically. I mean, to your point, it was going to be a, a very limited military

00:46:32.740 incursion. Putin has said this several times. It was meant to essentially be a punitive expedition

00:46:37.440 to use them. We'll use one of our terms into Ukraine to kind of say, hey, you need to stop 0.90

00:46:42.280 doing this. And it's expanded out. And I think this could well result in ultimately the partition

00:46:47.700 of Ukraine because those 400,000 troops, Jack, come winter, they're going to, you're going to,

00:46:54.020 they, the Kremlin are going to have the option of going in militarily and doing a bifurcation of the

00:46:59.400 country. I think there's a good chance the Russians could go and basically increase their amount of 0.99

00:47:04.420 military force and go and go up to the Dnieper river and split the country in half. I think 0.67

00:47:11.000 there's a pretty good chance at this point. And I think it'd be a tragedy, but I think Putin has been

00:47:15.780 made, has made this very clear. Russia, Russia will not lose this war. Ukraine will not necessarily

00:47:21.540 lose either, but the country may well be split in half. And I think that's where this is going at this

00:47:27.160 point. So you think potentially a frozen conflict. So we're talking basically East, West Germany,

00:47:36.080 North, South Korea, or even prior at certain points of the Vietnam war, we had North, South Vietnam.

00:47:42.280 Right. And I think that's where it's going to go. Cause I don't think the Russians have the political 1.00

00:47:46.440 will to take the entire country or the interest. I know they don't want to actually get into war

00:47:51.040 with Russia, with the NATO. NATO and Russia would not be a necessary war, nor do I think either side

00:47:57.080 would benefit from it. So remember Jack, who benefits, who benefits from the conflict? Well,

00:48:01.880 you point out that the West benefited from propping up and getting Zelensky to move forward and oppose

00:48:07.420 the negotiated peace. Heck, the British over the weekend floated the idea of sending in British troops.

00:48:12.880 It's like, that's going to be interesting if they decide to do that. I don't, I don't think it's in

00:48:16.800 our interest. There's a range of things, which I think are being floated. But I think the bottom

00:48:21.020 line is because of the way, uh, Russia has sustained its military forces in a, in a attrition

00:48:28.060 perspective, they're trying to attrit the Ukrainian forces with this new change of opinion saying that

00:48:34.420 maybe we, we, there's a fascist regime in Kiev. It does strengthen the propaganda that they've been

00:48:41.200 using to justify military force from the beginning. And this, this all plays right into the Russian

00:48:45.380 hands at this point. Tony, where can people go to follow you, get more information?

00:48:50.100 So we are on a project Sentinel project sentinel.net and project sentinel.com. Follow me on Twitter.

00:48:57.060 A lot of interesting things going on there all the time. And Jack always, as always,

00:49:00.640 I enjoy joining you for these discussions and thank you for having me.

00:49:03.600 T spooky. One of the best guys out there. You follow him, you will know what's going on weeks

00:49:10.040 and days in advance. And that is exactly where we like to keep the human events audience. Keep an eye

00:49:16.380 on Poland. And I'm not just saying that because I'm biased. I'm saying it because it looks like

00:49:20.440 the next color revolution might be coming in Poland. 15 days, October 15th will be the next election.

00:49:28.100 Parliamentary election 13th in Poland. Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission

00:49:32.120 to lay ashore.

Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - October 02, 2023

EPISODE 573： THE CHURN - HOW WILL RFK JR. IMPACT TRUMP IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION？

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