EPISODE 573： THE CHURN - HOW WILL RFK JR. IMPACT TRUMP IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION？
Episode Stats
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Summary
Trump and Leticia James face off in his civil trial in the New York City court. President Trump is fighting back against the charges brought against him by his former attorney general, Joe Biden. Meanwhile, RFK announces he s running against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.
Transcript
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post. So totally free the post. So daily brief. We are in a fifth generational conflict.
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A commentator, international social media sensation and former Navy intelligence veteran.
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This is human events with your host, Jack Posobiec. Deliver us from evil.
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It's a disgraceful trial put forward by an attorney general who's corrupt. We have murders
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going all over the city, all over the state at a record level. It's an epidemic. And they
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waste their time on this with banks that were very happy. They got all their money back.
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They weren't defrauded. I've been defrauded. With a judge that ruled at a building,
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that a property is worth 18 billion dollars, 18 million dollars, when in fact it's worth over a
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billion, probably a billion and a half, it may be worth anything. When many properties which I sold
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are worth much more than were listed in the financial statements, by double and triple,
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what do you have to do? And we're wasting our time on this trial. With a Democrat judge from the
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clubhouses, it's a disgrace. They ought to look for the murderers and the killers that are all over
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New York killing people. And the violent crime that's being committed in our city and our state
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is disgraceful. And we're going to be here for months with a judge that already made up his mind.
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It's ridiculous. He's a Democrat judge. He's an operative. And it's ridiculous.
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec
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live here, Washington, D.C. Today is October 2nd, 2023. And Odomini just saw President Trump there
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inside the courthouse at the New York County Courthouse. They're facing off in his civil trial
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against Leticia James. This is that same trial where you saw the judge late last week put up
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and really just devalue the Mar-a-Lago property at 18 million, basically already ruling that
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effectively already ruling, right? This biased Libtar judge effectively already ruling that
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Trump has committed fraud, even though, of course, we already know that the banks didn't find any
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fraud. Everything was paid back in full, that there was no fraud to be found. I want to play though,
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and I want to go to a different story, and we're going to be keeping an eye on that. But just real
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quick on Trump, it's rare when he's that angry. When you see that, look, can we show his face again,
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guys? Just pull it up there on the side. When he's speaking after his courtroom appearance,
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when he came out and spoke to the crowd, I mean, he has this look in his eyes where he's so angry,
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and you can see it being forced to sit there with everything else that's going on in this country,
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when everything else that's on the line, with the fate of our very nation itself on the line,
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and you're forcing him to sit in a courtroom, giving full help to Joe Biden in the middle of
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a race. I mean, just you look at, and for the radio audience, you know, guys, you've got to see
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Trump here. This is rare for him. He is not happy. He's extremely unhappy. But there's something else
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that's going on in this race. Because after the show ended on Friday, there was a huge piece of
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news that was a major shakeup in this race. We already knew that Trump was facing charges.
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But now there's a new shakeup. On Friday, I told you that we were entering what I call the churn.
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The churn is a time when there are tectonic shifts going on. It is a time when alliances are
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shifting. When everything is in flux, the energy itself is shifting. And then all of a sudden,
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what happened? RFK announced that he's going to run as an independent. That means no primary
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straight to the general election. And if you don't think that RFK is going to play a role
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in taking independent votes and moderate votes away from Trump, then you need to go back to the
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drawing board and understand it's math, folks. It's as simple as that. And the American political
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system, how many times do I have to say it? In the American political system, it is not the quality
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of your votes that matters. It is the quantity. Trump only was prevented from going into the White
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House by 42,000 votes in three states. Under a percent in three of these states, Arizona, Georgia,
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Wisconsin. Now you put a guy like RFK on the ballot and guess what? Those margins are going to be harder
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to get because now the bucket is going to be emptier when you go to fill it up. RFK is going to play a
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huge role here. And what Trump should do, cut a deal, make him an offer. Do you want HHS? Send
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RFK after Anthony Fauci, light him up against big pharma, the vaccine manufacturers. This should be
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RFK's goal. I think it's what he wants. I think he's the perfect man for the job. And I think that
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Donald Trump is the man who should hire him for that job and give him carte blanche to go after these people.
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Ladies and gentlemen, one of the best ways that you can support us here at Human Events and the work
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All right, Jack Posobiec here back live Human Events daily. Folks, I want to tell you about
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well get it started with blackoutcoffee.com, promo code POSO20. I want to bring in our next guest now,
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Rich Barris. Rich, now the news broke Friday after the show, after the program, Human Events, ended
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that RFK, and this had been something that a lot of people were presaging, thinking that it might
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happen. They were teasing it out. Now it's coming. RFK Jr. has stated that he will be getting into the
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race as an independent. He's teased it, but we basically know this. You were on Tim Cash that
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very night, and I heard you making the same comment about Ross Perot. Now we've got this Zogby
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poll out this morning showing that, oh, look, look at this. It's exactly what Richard Barris said,
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that he's polling identically that 19% that Ross Perot famously took in the 1992 election,
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which swung the election for Bill Clinton. Everybody talks about the blue wall. Everybody
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talks about all these things that Clinton did, Clinton's achievements. Clinton never got over 50%.
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And he got 42% in that election. And it was because Ross, 42, 43, right? And it's because
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Ross Perot got 19%. And then, and it was because he dug away at Republicans in so many of those states
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that Clinton was able to come in into battlegrounds and then have a plurality and win. And I said that
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that's exactly how RFK would play out. Then you said it on TimCast. Now Zogby's out this morning.
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Walk us through a little bit. What do you see as the role of RFK in this race?
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We have, Jack, and we will have even more later. I'm sure others will poll it. Conflicting data.
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I want people to focus on a few things. One is the impact of this on the Rust Belt. What impact
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RFK will have in there? Because his strength is not the Northeast, like everybody thinks. He's a
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candidate that has not been where he has polled well, even against Biden in a Democratic nomination.
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He was getting votes from people who are going to vote, maybe feel a little orphaned,
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but they're not Kennedy Democrats. That's not who he has been winning. He's been winning
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the independent vote. The Democrat, solid Democrat vote is behind Joe Biden.
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So this is something I want to explain to people. In 2016, there was similarities we were seeing with
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today, which is RFK has a certain vote. If he doesn't get the nomination, huge shares of them said
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that they would vote for Donald Trump if RFK was not the Democratic nominee. If you're Trump,
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you wanted those voters. You needed some of those voters in certain places like Michigan and elsewhere.
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And that is what threw Michigan to Donald Trump. Maybe not Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,
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but without a doubt. The crossover vote from Bernie's vote that went to Trump in the general
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is how Trump carried Michigan by 10,000 votes. That is plain as day. And also, it's really simple,
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Jack, you know, the bird's eye view here. There are two outsiders in the race that you have to look
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at elections like lanes, right? And there's already Donald Trump in the race against Joe Biden,
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and Biden is the insider. You throw another outsider in there, and that's how insiders win.
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And there's not that much. There's not enough outside vote.
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Two anti-establishment candidates, two viable anti-establishment candidates sitting in the
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same lane. What you'll have is a split in that anti-establishment vote that otherwise could have
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come together. We saw this in the Bernie bro to Trump supporter pipeline in 2016 that you're talking
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about here. If you've got somebody else who's acting essentially as a sponge for all of that
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support that's sitting in those races. And by the way, there's a reason the Democrats haven't said a
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single word about blocking RFK since the minute this news dropped. You notice all the attacks on RFK
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have disappeared since he said that he wants to come in as an independent. Nobody's calling for him
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to be suspended anymore. Nobody's calling for him to be taken down. Nobody's calling for him to be
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censored. No, all of a sudden, you are going to see what, and the neocon donors, they're salivating
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about this. Trust me. And ballot access is a hard thing to get. People understand how hard ballot
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access actually is to achieve in 50 out of 50 states. Very difficult. But I guarantee you, you will see
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you in a party establishment law firms and activists getting involved, making sure even even behind the
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scenes on the RFK campaign to try to make him get onto the ballot in all of these states, because I'm
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telling you right now, RFK will operate like Ross Perot, where he's picking up that anti-establishment
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vote, people who may have considered Trump. But if they're given an alternative, because they don't
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want to vote for Biden, and if they're given an alternative that they view as potentially viable, that is
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not Trump or Biden, they'll go for RFK. But those- Jack, he's a populist too.
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Rich, how critical is this voting block for Trump to win over? Especially when we're talking about the
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Rust Belt, because quite frankly, that's the only, that is the key battleground of the country.
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That's it. I mean, that's what I was going to say. What we're really, what is really in question
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here is how this is going to play out in the Rust Belt, because Trump needs, if he gets Arizona and
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Georgia, he's going to need at least Wisconsin. But because he is Donald Trump, he plays in
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Pennsylvania. He plays in Michigan. It's very critical. And aside from RFK being a populist,
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and again, folks, I mean, we're going to poll it, and I'll let the data speak for itself. I'm just
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telling you what I've seen in the primary polling. And then we have been uniquely asking people
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from the primary to the general about their voting behavior and their preferences. And
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there are votes there that play out, especially in the Rust Belt, that Donald Trump needed.
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In a close race in Wisconsin, he needed 30% of RFK's disaffected vote. In a close race in Michigan,
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he needs that 30% disaffected vote. With RFK on that ballot, he's not going to get it. And then
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there's the importance of the hive mind, Jack, right? Aside from them both being
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populous. We talk about this a lot on the show. And I don't think people, you know,
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judging by the reaction to this, I don't think people understand the hive mind, what we're talking
00:14:21.520
about when we talk about Democrats, like the hive mind. He, what is his plan? According to Mediaite,
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and the campaign is not, you know, denied it. His plan is to attack the DNC. They're going to run
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ads attacking the DNC. He already had a problem branching out into Democrats and traditional
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Democrat demographics. His problem was not the moderate independent. That was not the issue for
00:14:45.640
him. His issue was that he couldn't break into young people. He couldn't break into certain non-white
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voters. He couldn't break into registered and self-ID Democrats. That was his issue. And so when
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he starts attacking the DNC, it's a hive mind. They're all going to further ostracize him.
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He will be seen as someone, whether it's true or not, they'll paint him as someone who's trying to
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subvert Joe Biden, subvert the Democrats' chance, help Donald Trump win this election. And then that
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will turn all of those Democrats solidly behind Joe Biden. They will move solidly behind Joe Biden,
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the same way that Trumpers who- Or Newsom, or whoever the candidate is, right? It doesn't matter
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who the candidate is. And by the way, it's not about the solid, it's not just about the solidity
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of the hive mind, but you're 100% correct on that. It's also about the ballot machine that they have
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built for the Democrat party. That ballot machine is only going for one candidate. They're not going to
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go for somebody else, all right? So if you put Newsom there, it'll be Newsom. If you put Biden there,
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it'll be Biden. Kamala Harris, if you put the, what's her name, this Maryland abortionist that
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is now going to be a senator from California, you could put her there. They'll make her the
00:16:02.380
candidate. The ballots will go to whatever the name is. They're probably already printed. You just put
00:16:07.460
a little sticker on top of them. That's not the point. The point is because this race takes place
00:16:14.080
on the margins. Remember, 80,000 votes in 2016 as Hillary's president. 42,000 votes in 2020. But
00:16:22.040
let's say ballots, right? I'll say ballots. 42,000 ballots in 2020 go the other way, right? Regardless
00:16:28.300
of how they got there, go the other way. And Donald Trump is your president for the second term. This is
00:16:34.440
how they've done this. And so when you're talking about these numbers nationwide, when you're talking
00:16:40.620
about these numbers in certain areas of the country, it's the margins are so slim. And they'll
00:16:46.360
say, oh, well, look, he only took 2% in the Zogby poll. He only took 2%. That's all you need. All you
00:16:52.300
needed was 2%. Rich, it's like that South Park episode, man. How do I reach these kids?
00:16:58.780
Jack, we're talking about three states that were like two-tenths of a percentage point.
00:17:02.720
How do I reach these kids? Yeah. This is how elections are decided, despite the national
00:17:09.520
numbers. Biden was way ahead nationally. And in the Electoral College, that was not the case. This
00:17:15.360
was two-tenths in Wisconsin. This was 12,000 votes in this state, 8,000 votes or 10,000 votes in that
00:17:21.060
state. That's how this works. Margins are everything. I mean, the 30-plus percent that told us that I will
00:17:30.860
vote for RFK in the primary, or at least I support RFK for the Democratic nomination. But if he doesn't
00:17:37.620
get it, I'm going to vote for Donald Trump. That was a key vote. And that's why it was smart for
00:17:44.040
Trump to say nice things about him. Don't go overtly and support him, but you don't want to
00:17:48.780
piss his supporters. You're basically starting to cultivate a relationship with soon-to-be
00:17:55.880
disaffected voters. So they have a place to land when their guy gets shafted, which is what
00:18:01.720
happened. Him doing this now puts him on the ballot. Maybe not all of them will stay with RFK,
00:18:08.560
and they'll say, look, it's either going to be Trump or Biden, so I will go with Trump. But maybe,
00:18:12.920
Jack, that falls from 33 to 15. And on the margins, that sucks. Yeah.
00:18:18.640
This is the margins. And it's the margin of victory versus the margin of fraud, as we've
00:18:24.540
been talking about for so long here on Human Events Daily. Stay tuned. We're going to come
00:18:28.720
back with Richard Barris handicapping this new, and it's an absolute game change, right? It's an
00:18:34.460
absolute game change in the 2024 election. And if anyone isn't telling you that, then they're not
00:18:40.400
telling you the truth. Today, you know, that you talk about influences. These are influences,
00:18:48.160
and they're friends of mine. Jack Posobiec. Where's Jack? He's got a great job.
00:18:56.960
All right, Jack Posobiec. We're back here, Human Events Daily. Folks, do you ever get the feeling
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It's time for you to prepare for what is coming. Mypatriotsupply.com. All right. I want to play this
00:20:04.940
clip now that we have of RFK actually talking about, well, this very dynamic here in the race.
00:20:12.960
Let's go ahead, guys. Yeah. And then the other thing is that I take more votes from President
00:20:18.040
Trump than I do from President Biden. Right. So why would that help them? Yeah, it's not helping them.
00:20:23.240
Yeah. So, Rich, there's RFK himself admitting it. He's stating, based obviously on the polling that
00:20:31.380
he's seen internally from his own operation, that he takes more votes from Trump than he does from
00:20:38.020
Biden. And I've seen some of these other polls out there. They're saying, well, what about the
00:20:40.880
leaners and this? It's no, no. We're talking about the gross number. People want to play these little
00:20:46.140
games about this bucket and this bucket. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. What matters is how
00:20:51.720
many ballots you get into the ballot box. That is what America has turned into. This country will
00:20:58.180
be decided, and it's a series of boxes, right? The ballot box, the drop box, and the mailbox.
00:21:04.100
The ballot box, the drop box, and the mailbox. I don't know how many times I have to say it. Rich,
00:21:09.680
do you think RFK is lying, or do you think he knows what he's talking about?
00:21:13.720
No, I think he had this done. Zogby did this for him. He's been polling for him. So,
00:21:18.560
Zogby also is firmly now outside of the Democratic establishment. He ran afoul of them in 2004
00:21:25.020
during the Bush v. Kerry race. They're no fans of Zogby, let me tell you. It's like how some of
00:21:31.440
the Republican establishment feel about me, right? So, Zogby has no reason to make this look better
00:21:38.940
for Trump, as opposed to others, which I think is a nice way I'm trying to say something. And by the
00:21:46.840
way, the other conflicting information that we have, forget about the leaners, Jack. I mean,
00:21:52.200
we're talking about a small share of the vote that is truly persuadable. And of those truly
00:21:56.600
persuadable voters, Trump loses more than Biden does with RFK and the race. Even in those that look
00:22:05.200
better than the Zogby poll for Trump. If you look into the Zogby, and I would love for them to release
00:22:10.080
more of the information, all of these pollsters, it would be nice if you put out your crosstabs,
00:22:14.400
like everyone else is expected to do. But in the memo, what it says is that he does pull some non-white
00:22:20.400
from Biden, but it's not enough to counter how much RFK is pulling of the white vote from Trump.
00:22:27.200
Again, back to the Rust Belt. Folks, what share of the electorate in Michigan is white?
00:22:34.560
80 plus percent in these states. You lose a few points from the white vote,
00:22:40.240
and it makes an enormous difference in the statewide totals. Same thing, ditto for Pennsylvania,
00:22:47.120
ditto for Wisconsin, which actually has more Asians than the other two states.
00:22:51.840
So, and Biden's taking none of that from, I mean, excuse me, RFK is taking none of the Asian other
00:22:58.480
vote from Joe Biden. So it's critical when we're talking about the Rust Belt. And if, again,
00:23:04.400
we're going to poll this, folks. And when it comes to this stuff, I believe myself and my own work more
00:23:11.360
than everybody else. And we'll also put West on that questionnaire as well, because we'll do it both
00:23:18.080
ways with and without West. But, you know, at this point, I wouldn't be stunned if West takes,
00:23:26.800
obviously, some from Biden, but RFK takes slightly more from Trump. I mean, we'll find out,
00:23:32.720
Jack, but white is white. Demographics are demographics. The Rust Belt is a very unique set
00:23:38.800
of demographics in the country where Republicans do very well, obviously, with the white vote,
00:23:44.960
but they need an outsized share of it, especially among the working class in order to carry those
00:23:50.720
states. If there's the president of an independent candidate, it was a populist who appeals to non-college
00:23:56.480
votes. Then they pull a little bit away from the Republican. That's it. That's the ballgame.
00:24:02.160
It's the ballgame. Right. That means so. So what you're saying is, you know, and to avoid the
00:24:07.520
Kathy Newman. Right. So to summarize, if Trump doesn't win the Rust Belt, if Trump doesn't win
00:24:14.720
the Rust Belt, it's over. Right. It's over. He has no path to the press. Do you see, all right,
00:24:21.440
just off the top of your head, do you see any path to the presidency for Trump without any Rust Belt
00:24:25.680
state? There was just a poll out that showed him either tied or slightly ahead in Virginia. I believe
00:24:32.560
that, like, I believe there's a hole in the back of my head right now. Virginia is, you know,
00:24:38.480
come on. I mean, in a landslide. I shared that one, Grinch, this morning. Come on,
00:24:44.160
you're breaking my heart. You need you need a combination of Arizona and Georgia with either
00:24:51.600
Wisconsin or you could lose one of those two Sun Belt states. But then it would make it even more
00:24:56.080
important to win the Rust Belt because you would need Michigan and Pennsylvania or one or both to offset
00:25:01.680
those losses. There is no. That's why Donald Trump is uniquely the strongest candidate on the
00:25:06.640
Republican side in this race. I don't really care what anybody says and repeating their stale talking
00:25:12.080
points. Donald Trump is the only candidate who plays in the Rust Belt. And that is what makes him
00:25:17.680
uniquely stronger than any other Republican. If RFK is in that race, it threatens to take that away
00:25:23.360
from him. There's just Jack. I mean, you know, again, we'll pull it and we'll lay it out for everybody
00:25:28.640
to see. But I don't see how RFK doesn't hurt Trump. It can. It would still be close without a doubt.
00:25:39.200
But he's not getting support from the Northeast, Jack. He's not getting support from the West.
00:25:44.800
We've been doing these points for months now. He's getting it from the Midwest and Southern and some
00:25:50.400
Southern states. Where are you going to go? Right. If you don't get any of the Rust Belt,
00:25:56.240
explain, okay, you get the, we'll give, we'll give them Ohio, right? We'll give, I'll even give,
00:25:59.920
I would say Ohio, give them Iowa, give them Ohio. Okay, fine. Where do you, then you've,
00:26:05.920
you've got to go out West is the only place you can go. And now you're at, now you're in Nevada.
00:26:10.720
Now you're in Colorado. Now you're in New Mexico. Those are all steep uphill climbs. They are very,
00:26:16.640
very steep uphill climbs. And even, even so I get it. Nevada, Nevada, every once in a while
00:26:23.360
comes close. What'd you say Maine? Well, I mean, Maine doesn't, it just doesn't have enough votes
00:26:28.080
though. It doesn't have, that's what I was going to say. On Tim cast, we brought up the examples of,
00:26:32.400
the example of Maine. The problem with that is it just doesn't have the electoral juice. If you lose
00:26:37.280
a state like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it doesn't have the, you know, you always want to,
00:26:42.480
you want to fight for every electoral vote, of course, but it can't offset losing one of those states.
00:26:47.280
Uh, Nevada, even as well. I mean, I do think Donald Trump could win the state this time around. And
00:26:52.640
I'm well, I've long been a silver state skeptic for Republicans, but his improvement among Hispanics
00:26:58.480
is so dramatic that he could really do something special in Clark County that others can't do.
00:27:03.200
So I do think it's up for grabs this time. However, again, throw Maine in there, Jack throw
00:27:08.320
Nevada in there. Maybe New Mexico and Colorado get super close, uncomfortably close for Joe Biden.
00:27:14.400
I just don't see it. Even according to me, you give me Nevada. You give me Nevada. Well,
00:27:19.520
and then actually, you know, what happens is, is what this also does. Rich is this is something
00:27:26.160
that we've talked about on the show before, because if this throws the entire race askew,
00:27:32.720
let's talk about this scenario for a second there. So let's say, let's say Trump does win Nevada
00:27:38.160
just for sake of argument. Then Trump also wins Maine. I love Maine. I've got family in
00:27:41.600
Ogunquit, right? Ogunquit Wells. Love the blueberry coffee, blackoutcoffee.com.
00:27:45.840
Um, it's, it's one of the most gorgeous states in the union is one of the best places to spend
00:27:49.600
your summer. I totally understand why Tucker goes up there all the time. What happens though,
00:27:54.320
Rich? Because in that scenario, Biden wins the Rust Belt. Trump wins a couple of other states,
00:28:00.320
but Biden doesn't get to 270 and Trump doesn't get to 270. Now, what are we looking at?
00:28:07.920
You go to the house for that. I mean, that's what that, that's ultimately what happens. Uh,
00:28:13.520
again, and it could that, I mean, that that's a scenario that could play out. I just looking
00:28:17.920
around the map to see, well, where else would there be an opportunity just, you know, considering who
00:28:22.880
RFK appeals to. And I brought up Virginia before Jack, could that stop it from going to the house?
00:28:28.160
Um, no, because who is, yeah, look at this. I'm, I'm on 270. If, if, if Biden, even if Biden wins,
00:28:34.960
all of New England and Nevada, it's you're still, the Dems are all that it's okay. Biden can just
00:28:42.800
get over 270. He can just get over it. But if you flip one of those states, now we're, yeah,
00:28:48.320
now you're looking at a house scenario. Now you're looking at a house representative. That's how close
00:28:52.720
this election is. People don't seem, seem to understand that these are very tight electoral
00:28:57.360
situations we're in. And there's a bunch of reasons for that. It has to do with the census,
00:29:01.600
the census has to do the reapportionment, et cetera, et cetera. But these are very,
00:29:06.000
very close races. And you're saying, oh, well, Trump could lose this state, that state,
00:29:09.840
he could lose this group, that group. No, no, no, that's, that's, that's the reason that so much
00:29:16.800
money is being redirected to these areas. So Rich, if it goes to the house, do you think,
00:29:21.920
do you think then that, okay, so it goes to the current house, right? Or the new house?
00:29:26.160
Uh, yeah, right. And there will, there will be some changing in seats. Uh,
00:29:32.880
no, I think we're past all those specials that are really competitive. So you're looking at
00:29:36.640
generally the makeup now, unless of course they oust Matt Gaetz, you know, we'll say, but, uh,
00:29:41.680
yeah, which is, you know, I'm not going to get into that. I'll let you deal with that in another
00:29:44.720
segment, but you know, there are some things that can happen. Yeah. I mean, I, I don't,
00:29:50.240
I don't see, I don't see Gates getting ousted. No, me either. But this is when that stuff,
00:29:55.360
Jack starts to really become so critical and important. You know, you just can't,
00:30:00.960
why do you think Democrats have all of a sudden stopped calling for Bob Menendez, uh, to be, uh,
00:30:06.480
to, to, to leave the Senate? Um, they obviously know and understand the balance of power.
00:30:11.920
Somebody's doing some counting. That's right. Now that bind down that Feinstein passed away,
00:30:17.520
they, they, well, and also because Jeff and drew just announced that he's taking a look at that seat.
00:30:22.160
When suddenly you've got a viable Republican that could win statewide in, in New Jersey,
00:30:26.880
which by the way, a lot shows you that, that Chris Christie hasn't even floated the idea
00:30:31.680
of running because he would get laughed out of New Jersey. Rich, I love doing these segments
00:30:36.320
with you because people, people say it's, it's prognostication. It's, it's,
00:30:40.480
it's rich gnostication, but we have to go there every once in a while because these are the times
00:30:45.760
we live in. Where can people go to follow the latest from the people's pundit?
00:30:49.440
That's it. People's pundit.locals.com. Check out the public polling project. We're going to pull,
00:30:54.320
like I said, we're going to pull this real soon. We'll find out, dig into it.
00:30:57.280
People's pundit.locals.com. Thanks, Jack. People's pundit.locals.com. What happens
00:31:03.280
if Trump loses the race because of RFK? Blocks it. Cut a deal. Just cut a deal. Give him HHS.
00:31:12.000
We're about the boring people at your office. I'm trying to listen to the new human events
00:31:20.400
All right, Jack Posobiec back here, live human events daily. We've got Lieutenant Colonel Tony
00:31:26.880
Schaefer now on joining us. Lieutenant Colonel Schaefer, from the last time we had you on,
00:31:31.760
we talked about how, how you doing? We were talking about how the Ukraine,
00:31:37.360
the Ukraine funding had become this sort of political football within the United States.
00:31:44.000
Congress had really become the sticking point. Now we did end up getting that clean CR put through,
00:31:50.400
but let me just tell you, just ask you, or I'll just ask you from a perspective of a guy who's been
00:31:55.440
in DC as long as you have, did you ever think that we would get to the point where the House GOP and the
00:32:02.880
Senate GOP would be working that closely and that hard together, where they would push through a bill
00:32:09.040
that actually omitted all funding for Ukraine. They said, this isn't going to go through. We'll
00:32:14.560
fund the rest of the government. That'll be fine. But Ukraine funding is stripped out. And I think a
00:32:19.280
lot of people, and I understand there's the Speaker McCarthy fight and a bunch of stuff that's going on
00:32:23.920
right now, but I actually think people are downplaying this Ukraine funding. Talk to me about how big
00:32:30.400
of a watershed moment this is. Well, I think it's, uh, the practical situation, uh, that we face
00:32:39.120
kind of being reflected in, in, uh, congressional thinking. Finally, uh, again, I just may be,
00:32:45.200
let me be very clear on this. Cause I always feel I need to clarify. Uh, my job is to not, uh, be
00:32:51.360
emotional. It is not to take sides. My job is to call balls and strikes. We've been talking Jack for
00:32:56.720
months about the fact that, uh, the war in Ukraine is not going well. Uh, if you look at the maps,
00:33:04.720
uh, the BBC kind of situational map, the war maps, you, you know, you're an intelligence officer,
00:33:09.920
they have situation maps, they map everything out. If you look at the 4th of June and you look at,
00:33:18.000
uh, the 2nd of October or the 4th of October, you're going to see very little change. So, uh,
00:33:23.120
all that money that's been spent so far didn't have any positive effect on the war. So I think
00:33:29.040
most people now recognize Jack, like you and I've been talking about, you got to think about
00:33:34.080
doing something different, no matter what side you're on. If you're pro Russian, if you're pro
00:33:38.000
Ukraine, uh, the situation regarding the battle hasn't changed. So I think it's one of those
00:33:44.000
situations where Congress, members of Congress finally recognize that it's time to rethink this.
00:33:50.320
And the budget was a good excuse. Uh, I think most of these guys and gals, unfortunately, Jack,
00:33:56.800
don't want to be held to any position that is members of Congress. So this is a good excuse to
00:34:02.000
say, Oh, budget, we can't do this. So I think that's why you finally saw positive action. And I
00:34:07.280
think this is going to, to, to result in more action to diminish the direct support, the congressional,
00:34:15.280
Well, then Tony, let's talk about those, that battlefield situation, because as we've seen
00:34:20.480
here in this, um, the New York times came out over the weekend and said that over the court and
00:34:27.280
Elon Musk even commented on this, that over the course of the last, uh, two months, it looks as
00:34:32.320
though they said, Ukraine has made some marginal, um, pickups in the South, but Russia has actually
00:34:40.000
increased their holdings in the North where they aren't even really conducting an offensive,
00:34:46.320
which means that during the Ukraine counter offensive, Russia has been able to take more
00:34:52.240
territory in an attrition fight like this. And this is a dangerous question, but I'm going to have to
00:34:58.160
answer it. I'm going to have to ask it. Does Russia have any incentive to negotiate at this point?
00:35:04.320
No, no, Jack, of course not. Look, I'm a Reagan guy. And I always believed that like the Reagan folks
00:35:11.280
did, uh, my friends and mentors that you must always attempt as best you can to negotiate a
00:35:18.320
position of strength. Uh, that's how they were able to leverage, uh, our position, the U S position over
00:35:26.480
Russia and win the cold war by essentially having a sufficiently leveraged position to be effective.
00:35:34.080
There's no effectiveness in the Ukrainian position at this point. As a matter of fact,
00:35:38.160
uh, I think there's ample evidence of three things. First, uh, Ukraine is going to have to start
00:35:46.000
reconfiguring its battlefield forces for the defense. That is to stay to your point, especially in the
00:35:52.000
north. You, the Russians are about to return to the offensive. That's a very dangerous thing. If
00:35:56.960
you believe that Ukraine is, is, uh, about to prevail cause they're not. Secondly, relating to the
00:36:03.520
funding, uh, many other nations besides the United States have started to rethink this. Uh, I think that,
00:36:11.120
uh, Poland's already said they're not going to do it. I think, uh, Hungary, I think there's several
00:36:15.600
other nations, which are neighbors have said, yeah, we're out, we're done.
00:36:18.640
Well, and, and, and, and Tony, not only did, did Poland not say they're not going to do it,
00:36:23.760
but what all, what happened? Oh, right. Poland, which is facing a general election,
00:36:27.840
a parliamentary election in two weeks, all of a sudden gets an EU funded protest right on the
00:36:34.320
streets of Warsaw for the very first time. Only one week after the president came out,
00:36:39.680
the president's member of law and justice came out and said that Ukraine is a,
00:36:42.800
then Zelensky specifically is like a drowning man trying to pull everyone else down with him.
00:36:46.960
And then they announced they, they announced that they're going to cut arms sales. Now,
00:36:50.400
suddenly what do we see in the streets of Warsaw? Oh, the opposition, the anti-government and the
00:36:55.840
pride flags are everywhere. The EU flags are everywhere. We need to go after this. No,
00:37:00.160
then what they want to do is they want to flood Poland with migrants. They, and then they,
00:37:04.480
the same way they do with Italy and everywhere in Western Europe. And they want to turn Poland into
00:37:08.240
the rape capital of Europe, uh, take the title away from Sweden, uh, who has fought very hard to get
00:37:13.520
it, even though many of us told them not to. And then the next thing they want to do is make sure
00:37:17.680
that pull it because Poland is the linchpin in all of this, not only for the, uh, security and
00:37:22.880
military concerns vis-a-vis Ukraine, but also for what Tony, the energy concerns.
00:37:28.640
Well, energy. And then the third point I was about to move to is the, the, the economic issues,
00:37:33.600
which relate to everything from energy to, uh, corruption. One of the things that I think
00:37:38.480
you're aware of already is that there was a leaked memo straight strategy memo to, to political saying,
00:37:43.840
oh, there's, there's actually all sorts of shenanigans going on with corruption. Really?
00:37:50.000
So, uh, it's like that scene in, uh, in, um, uh, uh, Casablanca. I'm shocked to find gambling going on
00:38:00.480
Gambling here. Yeah. Yeah. So, so, oh, and of course, Ukraine says, well, we'll, we'll fight
00:38:06.880
corruption. If you pay us $5 billion, like, okay, sure. Uh, but wait, but wait, let's,
00:38:11.680
let's go through this because this is a strategic leak. It was a strategic leak to Politico. I believe
00:38:17.360
by the Biden administration that all of a sudden when Zelensky seems like he's worn out as welcome,
00:38:22.400
what do we find that the state department had this secret document that they had put an unclassed
00:38:28.000
version up on the, on the state department website with no fanfare. But then all of a sudden we get one
00:38:32.800
of these, you know, secret documents, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. That's that's in the headlines of
00:38:38.160
Politico, essentially saying that Biden views the number one threat to Ukraine, not as Russia,
00:38:44.160
but as corruption from who? Oh, that's right. Zelensky's own administration. That means the
00:38:51.680
writing might be on the wall for Mr. Vlad. What do you think's going on there, Tony?
00:38:56.080
Well, first off, let's take a, put it in perspective. I think it's all, uh, this is all,
00:39:02.240
uh, Kabuki theater. Biden knows about the corruption. He's benefited from it. I mean,
00:39:07.440
look, this is one of the things that happened. I mean, come on, look, it's, it's, it's a Reese's
00:39:13.020
cup moment. You've got the Biden corruption, the peanut butter with, uh, the Ukrainian corruption,
00:39:18.840
the chocolate. It's, it's, it's kind of, you know, uh, a Reese's cup of, of evil. So of course
00:39:24.560
they, are we doing Halloween puns already? It's our first show of October. We're already on
00:39:28.460
Halloween, Halloween puns. But that's the point. It's like they're, they're, they're actually
00:39:33.740
trying to put it to your point. They're leaking. This is, it's like a benefit. Oh, there's
00:39:37.680
corruption. We have to focus on corruption. No, this, this is more of, of this administration
00:39:44.020
trying to essentially move forward with the idea that we, the United States must be involved
00:39:49.360
in the future of, of, of you. And remember black rocks lining up to go in there to rebuild
00:39:55.280
the Clinton global global initiative. So what they're trying to do here is say, well, since
00:40:00.420
there's so much corruption, only we can sort that out much like we did in Afghanistan. The
00:40:05.480
whole idea is that we, this is this white man's burden. This is the racism of the left
00:40:10.840
on full display. We, we must be the ones who come in and, and fix these things. Uh, it's an
00:40:16.900
arrogance, uh, uh, combined with all sorts of hubris. And, but they're trying to, to
00:40:22.660
lay these, these little clues saying, Oh, there's all this corruption. We must, and we
00:40:28.420
must protect our investment. And that's what they're going to go with right now. It's like,
00:40:31.820
well, we spent all this money. We got to protect the investment and we got to rebuild it. So
00:40:35.260
I think that's where they're going with it right now. Well, I think you're exactly right.
00:40:39.300
And if Zelensky becomes more of a liability to the same interests than a benefit, then they'll
00:40:46.260
get rid of him and they'll find, they'll take one of the other generals. They'll take
00:40:49.540
one of the other ministers and they'll replace him. And suddenly they'll say, Oh, you know,
00:40:53.860
it turns out the corruption, they'll bring up all the Panama paper stuff again. This is
00:40:58.100
how they've been using this corruption on Zelensky plus the threat of the Azov battalion
00:41:02.380
and all these other guys that, that member Erdogan wasn't going to send the Azov stall
00:41:07.020
guys back until after the war had ended, but then whoops, they event, they somehow just made
00:41:11.380
it all the way back. Look, it's the carrot and the stick that they're using to get
00:41:15.480
Zelensky to play ball. And if he doesn't, they will make him dance. However they want.
00:41:22.080
Remember the guy's an actor. That's what he was hired for in the first place. Stay tuned.
00:41:25.300
We're coming back. Human events daily, all the Ukraine updates. What does it mean? Congress,
00:41:30.660
will they get their funding through or not the corruption? What's happening? Stay tuned.
00:41:37.080
I'm always listening to human events with Jack Posobiec.
00:41:39.480
All right, Jack Posobiec back here. Human events daily. Now here's a question, Tony. We just had
00:41:47.860
this crazy situation up in Canada where essentially their speaker just had to step down over accidentally
00:41:56.580
praising a member of the Waffen SS, Zelensky, Trudeau in the room. Now Politico Europe has this
00:42:05.520
huge. The cleanup crew has come in. They've got this headline out today. Well, just because you
00:42:09.800
fought against the USSR doesn't make you a Nazi. In fact, then other people have been pointing out
00:42:16.340
as well that they said, hold on a minute. We're celebrating veterans who fought against the
00:42:20.500
Russians, but weren't the Russians on our side in World War II. So why are we celebrating people
00:42:25.940
that were on the side of the axis to begin with, regardless of which specific unit they were in
00:42:31.760
at all? Where does this come from? And this is your great Orwellian moment of we've always been
00:42:36.440
at war with East Asia. And this, of course, has been used and has been one of the slogans and
00:42:44.600
raison d'etre of Putin from the very beginning of all this, that essentially that Ukraine is a Nazi
00:42:50.120
regime, and you just handed him a massive propaganda victory. How are the Russians responding
00:42:56.080
to all this? Well, Medvedev, the former, I guess the current prime minister and former president,
00:43:02.500
I mean, they switch back and forth. Medvedev has actually said... Yeah, he's kind of seen as the
00:43:06.320
waiting in the wings guy, like the next president sort of. Yeah. So he's basically come out and said
00:43:11.700
flat out that they're calling for regime change of the fascist regime in Kiev. So it's kind of like,
00:43:19.500
man. Wow. If you couldn't have stepped in it more readily than you did in Canada, I don't know. I
00:43:25.740
mean, look, Jack, this has this, that moment, that moment of Zelensky with Trudeau, with this member
00:43:35.160
of the Third Reich who actually engaged as a member of one of the units who was implementing
00:43:41.040
the final solution. Hitler's, the final, I can't even remember how they phrased it, the final question
00:43:48.580
to the, the final answer to the Jewish question or something, however it was phrased by the Germans.
00:43:52.960
But that guy, that, that, that Nazi, I'll say it because we can now, because that guy
00:43:58.480
was a member of one of the units, which was actually engaged, engaged in ethnic cleansing and
00:44:04.360
the murder of Jews. So it is what it is, what it is. And so the Russians are always ready to pounce on
00:44:12.100
any unforced error. Jack, this is the unforced error of the century where this, this incident plays
00:44:19.560
into everything the Russians have been saying from the beginning. And now to reinforce the
00:44:25.420
perception at home in Russia, that the fight that they, the Russians are engaged in is, is
00:44:31.400
legitimate. It's necessary. It just plays to the home front. I think you're going to see a lot of
00:44:37.380
Russian support. They were about 40,000 troops short of the 400,000 they were seeking. Katie,
00:44:43.960
bar the door. They're going to use this for purposes of trying to get that last 40,000.
00:44:48.560
And this circles back to the beginning of our conversation. What are the Russians going to do
00:44:52.900
with 400,000 for recruitment? They're going to use it for recruitment. Tony. Yeah. You said before,
00:44:59.780
you said before, and this, it's very interesting to me that they're directly targeting Zelensky's
00:45:03.100
regime right now, because you said before that you thought that the original plan was that this,
00:45:08.460
you know, and Putin called it a special military operation, that this was supposed to be a,
00:45:12.480
you know, a two to three week operation to basically force the hand of Kiev to, and, and
00:45:18.560
sure, there's questions about the Donbass region, but really the big enchilada was staying out of
00:45:23.560
NATO. The goal originally was two to three weeks, get them to say that we're, we're going to maintain
00:45:28.320
military neutrality, stay out of NATO, and then pull back. You know, obviously that didn't happen
00:45:33.080
because the, and, and by the way, we were told, and this has been, the story's been reported so many
00:45:36.740
times now that Zelensky wanted to agree to that, that he was willing to do that by March,
00:45:42.480
of 2022, and they were going to fly down to Istanbul and do this. Then Boris Johnson comes
00:45:47.640
over and a slew of others, and they blow up the negotiations. That's why they're in this situation
00:45:52.180
now. But if you remember early on, and I tracked this, that the Russians were never calling for
00:45:58.960
Zelensky to step down. They were never calling for his ouster. Putin told Naftali Bennett on the
00:46:04.280
phone, the prime minister of Israel, that he would not target Zelensky. Then Zelensky starts going and
00:46:09.160
doing all those videos out on the street. What you've just identified could potentially be a
00:46:15.240
strategic shift on the goals of the Kremlin because now they actually are saying that they want
00:46:22.200
the entire regime gone. What does that mean? Well, it means that the very fabric of the war
00:46:28.080
has changed dramatically. I mean, to your point, it was going to be a, a very limited military
00:46:32.740
incursion. Putin has said this several times. It was meant to essentially be a punitive expedition
00:46:37.440
to use them. We'll use one of our terms into Ukraine to kind of say, hey, you need to stop
00:46:42.280
doing this. And it's expanded out. And I think this could well result in ultimately the partition
00:46:47.700
of Ukraine because those 400,000 troops, Jack, come winter, they're going to, you're going to,
00:46:54.020
they, the Kremlin are going to have the option of going in militarily and doing a bifurcation of the
00:46:59.400
country. I think there's a good chance the Russians could go and basically increase their amount of
00:47:04.420
military force and go and go up to the Dnieper river and split the country in half. I think
00:47:11.000
there's a pretty good chance at this point. And I think it'd be a tragedy, but I think Putin has been
00:47:15.780
made, has made this very clear. Russia, Russia will not lose this war. Ukraine will not necessarily
00:47:21.540
lose either, but the country may well be split in half. And I think that's where this is going at this
00:47:27.160
point. So you think potentially a frozen conflict. So we're talking basically East, West Germany,
00:47:36.080
North, South Korea, or even prior at certain points of the Vietnam war, we had North, South Vietnam.
00:47:42.280
Right. And I think that's where it's going to go. Cause I don't think the Russians have the political
00:47:46.440
will to take the entire country or the interest. I know they don't want to actually get into war
00:47:51.040
with Russia, with the NATO. NATO and Russia would not be a necessary war, nor do I think either side
00:47:57.080
would benefit from it. So remember Jack, who benefits, who benefits from the conflict? Well,
00:48:01.880
you point out that the West benefited from propping up and getting Zelensky to move forward and oppose
00:48:07.420
the negotiated peace. Heck, the British over the weekend floated the idea of sending in British troops.
00:48:12.880
It's like, that's going to be interesting if they decide to do that. I don't, I don't think it's in
00:48:16.800
our interest. There's a range of things, which I think are being floated. But I think the bottom
00:48:21.020
line is because of the way, uh, Russia has sustained its military forces in a, in a attrition
00:48:28.060
perspective, they're trying to attrit the Ukrainian forces with this new change of opinion saying that
00:48:34.420
maybe we, we, there's a fascist regime in Kiev. It does strengthen the propaganda that they've been
00:48:41.200
using to justify military force from the beginning. And this, this all plays right into the Russian
00:48:45.380
hands at this point. Tony, where can people go to follow you, get more information?
00:48:50.100
So we are on a project Sentinel project sentinel.net and project sentinel.com. Follow me on Twitter.
00:48:57.060
A lot of interesting things going on there all the time. And Jack always, as always,
00:49:00.640
I enjoy joining you for these discussions and thank you for having me.
00:49:03.600
T spooky. One of the best guys out there. You follow him, you will know what's going on weeks
00:49:10.040
and days in advance. And that is exactly where we like to keep the human events audience. Keep an eye
00:49:16.380
on Poland. And I'm not just saying that because I'm biased. I'm saying it because it looks like
00:49:20.440
the next color revolution might be coming in Poland. 15 days, October 15th will be the next election.
00:49:28.100
Parliamentary election 13th in Poland. Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission