Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - EPISODE 618： WORLD WAR ASIA - LIVE FROM JAPAN PART 1

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00:00:57.340 This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.

00:01:06.380 A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.

00:01:13.040 This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.

00:01:15.960 Deliver us from evil.

00:01:18.040 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard to something a little bit different here on Human Events

00:01:23.560 Daily, today we're going to bring you a very special presentation from myself and my friends

00:01:31.220 all the way over in CPAC, Japan, where we're going to bring you World War Asia, live from

00:01:39.040 Tokyo, Japan.

00:01:40.720 Myself and a team of experts are sitting down and discussing the issues of the rise of China,

00:01:47.100 what it means for the world, what it means for national security and global security, and

00:01:51.840 specifically what it means for East Asia.

00:01:55.580 So we're going to walk you through this today and tomorrow, a two-part Human Events special

00:02:00.820 live from Tokyo, Japan.

00:02:03.000 You're going to have myself, you're going to have an entire coterie of Japanese experts,

00:02:07.180 and we're also going to be joined by Gordon Chang.

00:02:10.500 Stay tuned.

00:02:11.040 I think you guys are going to like that.

00:02:12.660 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard.

00:02:14.280 Japan's response in a time of a crisis and national security.

00:02:20.900 Under this theme, we will have the next session.

00:02:23.900 Without Katera Jiu, I'd like to introduce the panelists. 0.67

00:02:27.880 First and foremost, the former Japanese air self-defense force chief of the stars,

00:02:33.820 Otoshi Otami Kami.

00:02:36.660 Please welcome him with a big round of applause.

00:02:38.780 Next, CPAC board member, Newsweek columnist, also over China, is going to roll board on

00:02:50.680 Jiu Chang.

00:02:58.340 Next, senior editor over Human Events, Naval Intelligence Officer, veteran, Jack Aposobe.

00:03:06.660 Another round of applause, please.

00:03:16.120 Thank you very much.

00:03:18.000 Please be seated.

00:03:24.040 Once again, I'd like to introduce the panelists one by one.

00:03:27.860 First and foremost, the former Japanese air self-defense force chief of staff, Atamogami

00:03:33.400 Itoshio.

00:03:33.920 Mr. Tamogami was the 29th chief of staff, air self-defense force, and his final title was

00:03:43.020 a general.

00:03:43.860 After graduating from National Defense Academy of Japan, he joined the Japanese air self-defense

00:03:48.420 force and was in charge of missile defense for all of Japan.

00:03:53.920 He is the person who has the supreme knowledge and experience on Japan's defense policy, especially

00:04:04.140 on the defense of airspace.

00:04:05.860 Next is CPAC board member and a columnist, Gordon Ji Chang.

00:04:11.080 Mr. Gordon Chang is a CPAC board member and a columnist at Newsweek.

00:04:15.280 And his latest book, China is going to a war.

00:04:21.380 He is the author of the book.

00:04:24.380 He lived in China and Hong Kong for almost 20 years and is now active as a renowned critic

00:04:28.840 on the crisis of China and North Korea and has appeared on TV programs, including Fox News,

00:04:35.240 as a guest on a regular basis.

00:04:37.320 Next, he is a senior editor of Human Events and a former Naval Intelligence Officer, veteran

00:04:44.420 Jack Possovic.

00:04:48.760 He is a senior editor of Human Events, a host of Events Daily and a turning point USA contributor.

00:04:57.120 He is a veteran Navy intelligence officer and a Lincoln fellow after he has been providing

00:05:10.960 information in the sea areas of India and China and so on.

00:05:14.960 He has spent many years in Shanghai and speaks fluent Mandarin.

00:05:20.220 So, the moderator will be Mr. Yamaoka Tetsuhide, once again, following the previous session.

00:05:27.240 Please give them a big round of applause, please.

00:05:32.500 Now, over to you, Mr. Yamaoka, please.

00:05:38.960 Thank you.

00:05:39.660 Let's begin.

00:05:40.180 Two weeks ago, in San Francisco, Xi Jinping and Biden had a summit meeting.

00:05:52.460 How do you evaluate that and what can we derive as lessons and insights in one word?

00:06:01.940 Thank you very much.

00:06:02.780 I didn't raise my hand, so let me begin by raising my hand.

00:06:10.260 I was the only one during the introduction.

00:06:13.740 President Biden and President Xi Jinping tried to decipher their mutual gut feelings,

00:06:20.820 so no conclusions were reached.

00:06:22.840 They tried to understand better what the counterpart is thinking.

00:06:27.560 President Biden wanted to understand better what next move China would take,

00:06:32.960 and President Xi Jinping wanted to decipher what U.S. would do to the war in Ukraine and Palestine war.

00:06:42.980 And that was what he keenly wanted to learn, so they tried to decipher that.

00:06:48.540 Mr. Gordon-chan.

00:06:49.540 The world is in flames, and Bidenomics is a complete and total disaster.

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00:08:04.280 And we're back.

00:08:07.600 Ladies and gentlemen, human events is worldwide.

00:08:10.560 We've come to you from all over the planet.

00:08:13.680 Today, we're coming to you from Tokyo, Japan.

00:08:16.420 Let's listen in.

00:08:16.980 Mr. Gordon Chan.

00:08:21.640 Well, first of all, thank you very much.

00:08:23.720 And I am honored to be on your panel, especially with the general and with Jack.

00:08:27.760 We don't really know what happened in San Francisco.

00:08:33.120 President Biden said that there were a couple of agreements.

00:08:37.500 But significantly, Xi Jinping did not stand with him at the post-summit press conference.

00:08:44.620 And also significantly, there was no joint statement.

00:08:48.340 So, you know, all we have to go on is from what we have heard from President Biden.

00:08:53.420 Last couple of days, we were told that there were 20 deliverables.

00:08:57.140 In other words, 20 agreements.

00:08:59.380 But we don't know what they are.

00:09:01.420 But I think there's one thing that we can understand.

00:09:04.140 And that is that China wants to rule, not just dominate, but wants to rule the world. 0.79

00:09:10.180 And the United States stands for a free and open system of sovereign states.

00:09:15.280 The system that has been in place since 1648.

00:09:18.920 So whatever agreements, whatever sort of that they came to in San Francisco,

00:09:24.540 they're not going to last very long because the United States and China have irreconcilable disagreements.

00:09:32.500 And those disagreements are going to define the relationship going forward.

00:09:36.100 So it doesn't really matter in a sense.

00:09:38.480 We know that there's going to be deep troubles ahead as China tries to take over the world. 1.00

00:09:43.480 Thank you very much, Jack.

00:09:48.080 It's wonderful to be here in Tokyo, Japan.

00:09:52.840 I'd like to thank you all for receiving us.

00:09:55.340 It's an honor for us as well to be here with Gordon, with our hosts, with the general.

00:09:59.900 It's very simple to me.

00:10:01.380 The most important thing to understand about the Joe Biden summit meeting with Xi Jinping was actually said by the White House before the summit took place.

00:10:12.620 And what was stated at that White House press conference was that there will be no economic decoupling of the United States and China.

00:10:21.940 This is incredibly significant because Joe Biden, more so than possibly any other United States elected official,

00:10:30.580 is more responsible for the rise of the CCP in the world than anyone else currently serving in the United States government.

00:10:38.160 And, of course, we know that through his son, Hunter Biden, his family has become very, very financially advantageous through this relationship themselves.

00:10:52.720 And so because he has a personal stake in the rise of China, he will never do anything to stop the underwriting of Chinese business, of Chinese finance,

00:11:03.420 and ultimately the People's Liberation Army by the United States and U.S. foreign direct investment.

00:11:10.120 Biden is a pro-China politician, and he will never stop being one.

00:11:18.060 Thank you very much on that point.

00:11:21.900 The Congress, however, is one after another coming up with bills that are being passed about Chinese economy to stop the Chinese economic growth.

00:11:33.420 or the critical raw material, including state-of-the-art chips to stop exports.

00:11:40.740 They're trying to do many attempts.

00:11:42.720 On the other hand, as you have rightly pointed out, Biden and his family are completely flooded by the corruption that they are being paid by the Chinese. 0.97

00:12:01.380 What would happen to this contradiction?

00:12:04.320 Well, I would see this contradiction, of course, in terms of the public and the private tracks, in terms of Biden's rhetoric versus Biden's actions.

00:12:13.220 And I say that when you look at specifically this chip situation, this is directly tied to the status of Taiwan and their ability to operate,

00:12:22.620 maybe not completely as a sovereign nation, but independently of the People's Republic as it stands.

00:12:28.440 When Donald Trump was in office, he was making sure that the United States stood with Taiwan and the United States stood economically with Taiwan.

00:12:38.840 However, if you look at what Biden has done, and I'm very interested in, as Gordon has said, these 20 deliverables, these 20 agreements between the U.S. and China,

00:12:48.300 because we know that China has been working very strongly to build their own domestic semiconductor capacity within their country in order to offset any potential split or decoupling with Taiwan.

00:13:01.860 Of course, under Trump, those deals were all going forward with Taiwan, particularly in the semiconductor field.

00:13:09.560 However, under Biden, we've seen that China has been able to really ramp up their own domestic production of these semiconductors.

00:13:17.400 And, of course, they're not just looking at dominating East Asia with this.

00:13:21.520 Their ultimate plan through these semiconductors, and they're already ahead of where the United States is, is, of course, eventually space.

00:13:29.000 One of the ways to reconcile this contradiction that you point out is that Joe Biden is the president in a democratic society.

00:13:37.040 He knows there's so much pressure against China.

00:13:39.440 And as Jack is saying, he's doing the least that he can do as a leader of a democratic state.

00:13:46.460 So, therefore, I think that you can see that Jack is right about this, that Biden is doing the least possible.

00:13:58.220 For the U.S., under the Biden administration, I think he wants to maintain the status quo because it's most beneficial for the United States on the part of China.

00:14:10.740 So, if they maintain the current situation, I think China is at a disadvantage.

00:14:18.420 So, now the U.S. is strong.

00:14:21.060 So, China wants to change this kind of situation.

00:14:24.820 And now, the United States, under President Biden, the U.S. has to support President Biden in a way, but at the same time, he has to expose his misdeeds.

00:14:39.340 So, I think that is why a lot of controversy is happening.

00:14:42.300 Gordon, you said there was no photo taking, no joint declaration.

00:14:53.120 Under such circumstances, what about Taian?

00:14:55.800 Some rumors that there was a secret agreement regarding Taiwan.

00:15:00.980 What do you think about that likelihood?

00:15:04.660 And, or Jack, Gordon?

00:15:06.500 Yeah, certainly, they were certainly going to discuss Taiwan.

00:15:10.080 That's at the top of Xi Jinping's mind because Xi Jinping has staked his personal credibility and his political standing on annexing Taiwan during his rule.

00:15:19.500 And I'm sure that Xi Jinping said to Biden that he wants the U.S. to stop arms sales, to stop diplomatic support.

00:15:27.600 And, you know, Biden may have mumbled something.

00:15:29.720 But whatever Biden might have said, remember that he can't deliver because Taiwan has support throughout the American political scene.

00:15:40.080 Both Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives.

00:15:43.720 So, Biden can say something, and I'm sure he probably tried to, but ultimately, he can't deliver.

00:15:52.080 Well, I completely agree with Gordon here that Biden, I'm sure, will tell everyone afterwards that he stood up for Taiwan,

00:16:01.060 that he stood up for the defense of the democracy of the island of Taiwan, their sovereignty as a nation.

00:16:06.740 But in terms of actually doing anything, to use his own word, deliverable, to achieve greater protection for Taiwan, he's not going to do that.

00:16:17.540 And, of course, that would be actually tied back to what I was saying earlier, a potential economic either decoupling or at least a diminishment of the direct economic ties between the U.S. and China,

00:16:30.640 instead of offshoring, reshoring, or potentially looking at other opportunities for partners in the region.

00:16:37.480 And, of course, you're also not hearing anything at the same time regarding Joe Biden putting forward a stronger alliance from a military perspective with Japan, which is what he should be doing.

00:16:50.780 I don't think there was any secret agreement, because President Biden has only one more year.

00:17:03.780 And I think there's very little likelihood he'd be reelected.

00:17:09.120 So, under such circumstances, would Biden make any promise?

00:17:13.000 I don't think so.

00:17:14.580 And President Xi Jinping himself, whatever Biden says, I don't think she would believe that it's a commitment.

00:17:21.580 So, as I said, I think they tried to fill out their gut feelings and nothing was decided.

00:17:29.300 One point, though, that I think is very important, as you say, this may be Joe Biden's last year in office, but there is, and I know, Gordon, you've mentioned this as well,

00:17:38.360 that there is someone who was holding meetings with Xi Jinping recently in the U.S. on the Democrat side.

00:17:44.360 And this is a man by the name of Gavin Newsom.

00:17:47.320 And Gavin Newsom's second-track diplomacy with Xi Jinping directly, both in China and then back in the United States, in San Francisco, the Bay Area,

00:17:59.600 I think is very important for people who consider that if Joe Biden potentially does not run again, as many people have predicted,

00:18:08.520 that it is a strong likelihood that Gavin Newsom, who we saw was debating Governor Ron DeSantis last night in the United States,

00:18:17.120 could potentially step up to fill that role on the Democrat side.

00:18:20.920 I think Gavin Newsom's very close relationship and very close ties with Xi Jinping must be looked at carefully.

00:18:29.300 I see. That's insightful.

00:18:32.820 But in that case, U.S. has economic ties with China, and they don't even attempt to decouple.

00:18:45.320 They only try to sustain.

00:18:46.880 So they want to maintain business relations.

00:18:49.700 And if they're going to prioritize that economic ties, then what about even if there's conflict in Taiwan, contingency in Taiwan,

00:18:55.840 U.S. will not get involved, maybe that could have been a deal, maybe not with Biden, but between Newsom and Xi Jinping.

00:19:04.700 Do you think that's a possibility? You can't deny it, right?

00:19:07.600 Well, I certainly think that depending on who becomes the next president,

00:19:14.120 Gavin Newsom would probably hand Taiwan over to Xi Jinping on a silver platter,

00:19:18.980 whereas a president, Donald Trump, would do everything to make sure that the CCP would fall if they would take that action.

00:19:27.040 There's another aspect to this, and that is that, you know, many people in Washington try to think,

00:19:32.960 what would the United States do if China were to attack Taiwan?

00:19:36.140 People in Tokyo actually, well, what is Japan going to do?

00:19:40.160 But we've got to remember that China's military doctrine is probably to hit the United States and Japan as it attacks Taiwan.

00:19:48.900 And that means, you know, we don't have a choice.

00:19:52.520 China is going to be driving this. 0.97

00:19:54.360 Remember, for China to successfully annex Taiwan, it's got to impose a blockade.

00:19:59.900 For that blockade to be successful, it's got to be big enough to include sovereign Japanese territory, 0.54

00:20:06.420 especially the island of Yonagumi.

00:20:08.840 And so that means that Japan gets attacked, means the United States has an obligation under our mutual defense treaty,

00:20:15.820 which means that we're going to be at war, whether we like it or not.

00:20:19.640 So this decision probably is not going to be ours to make, and it's not going to be Japan's to make.

00:20:25.000 It will be China's. 1.00

00:20:26.100 On that point, General, right, Russia invades Ukraine.

00:20:34.420 President Biden, even prior to the aggression, U.S. won't engage in Ukraine war.

00:20:42.980 He said that before.

00:20:45.880 Because if they end up fighting against Russia, there's a possibility of nuclear war.

00:20:50.740 So then, what happens if China invades Taiwan?

00:20:57.380 China is armed with nuclear weapons.

00:21:00.380 So what happens if U.S. participates to defend Japan and Taiwan?

00:21:06.940 I think there's hardly little likelihood or even zero likelihood.

00:21:11.020 President Xi knows that well.

00:21:13.180 But Russia is being criticized from all countries around the world.

00:21:19.920 So he's waiting and seeing how that would unfold.

00:21:25.700 And Russia's aggression of Ukraine.

00:21:29.520 Of course, we don't think it will be successful.

00:21:31.400 But if it ends up not being successful, then Xi Jinping, regarding Taiwan invasion or Japan invasion, will probably not do it, will not take the action.

00:21:46.000 Well, thank you.

00:21:47.160 At the summit meeting, there was one interesting point.

00:21:50.200 Xi Jinping allegedly has made this announcement.

00:21:57.160 China, in 2027 or 2035, will make an aggression against Taiwan.

00:22:07.560 It is being said, but there is no plan as such.

00:22:10.760 That is what Xi Jinping allegedly said.

00:22:13.580 In 2027 or 2035, there are very specific numbers in terms of years.

00:22:19.080 So U.S. general made a specific prediction.

00:22:22.820 So based upon that, Xi Jinping allegedly made this announcement.

00:22:26.200 Why do you think such an announcement was published?

00:22:29.920 What's your assessment?

00:22:32.180 Would you like to go first?

00:22:34.260 For this kind of announcement, there is a counterparty, and I think you are trying to gauge the reaction.

00:22:40.560 It is like an ad balloon, if you like.

00:22:43.220 So you say 2027 or 2035, making an aggression at this point in time.

00:22:48.240 I think this is completely unpredictable.

00:22:51.460 Nothing is known.

00:22:53.160 So China invading Taiwan, of course, they have to make some military preparation.

00:22:58.360 Unless they make preparation, you cannot make invasion.

00:23:01.720 So Russia going into Ukraine, I think they took five months and a half.

00:23:06.440 They had to mobilize all the forces.

00:23:08.240 And if China wants to invade Taiwan, it will take more time, because there is a scene between more than half a year, considering China's readiness.

00:23:17.760 So at this point in time, within half a year, China making an aggression against Taiwan or Japan is very unlikely at this point in time.

00:23:27.340 But when do they do that?

00:23:28.980 It's just anyone's guess.

00:23:30.020 Gordon, in your new book, China is preparing for a war.

00:23:38.480 You wrote that.

00:23:40.020 Based upon that assumption, can you make a comment?

00:23:41.900 Xi Jinping can't stop talking about war.

00:23:46.460 And we know that his country is engaged in the fastest military buildup since the Second World War.

00:23:52.600 It's trying to sanction-proof itself.

00:23:54.620 It's stockpiling grain and other commodities.

00:23:57.360 It's supporting other bad actors like Russia and Iran in their war efforts. 0.68

00:24:01.800 It's surveying the United States for nuclear weapons strikes.

00:24:04.920 And it's mobilizing China's civilians for war.

00:24:08.640 I mean, we don't know dates, as the general talked about.

00:24:12.060 But the point is, we know that they're getting ready to do this, which means that the United States, Japan, Philippines, our friends and allies in the region have got to assume that we could be at war at any time.

00:24:24.780 Because we talk about Taiwan, but right now at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, China's engaged in extremely belligerent activities, the type that can lead to war.

00:24:35.840 We know that China is ignoring warnings from our State Department, from President Biden, about the Philippines.

00:24:43.160 We know all sorts of things that are going on.

00:24:45.760 And any single incident can spiral downward into conflict.

00:24:49.840 So, you know, let's talk about 2025 or 2035.

00:24:55.460 But let's remember that it can happen at any time.

00:24:58.980 Well, Jakusan, according to some China in Fujian province, they are now building a large military hospital.

00:25:13.000 And also there are some other military-related infrastructure being built.

00:25:20.640 They have initiated the construction work already, according to some reports.

00:25:25.500 So, such a preparation for war by China, what's your assessment, please?

00:25:29.360 So, China is working very closely with Russia in terms of understanding how the Russian intelligence and Chinese intelligence are learning so much from the on-the-ground conflict in Ukraine right now.

00:25:45.560 This conflict that they are using, while certainly would be quite different in terms of, you know, one is ground, one is maritime, from Ukraine to Taiwan.

00:25:55.360 But there are a lot of lessons learned that China is taking from the Ukraine conflict.

00:26:00.480 And there have even been some reports that Chinese military officers are working with Russian military officers, potentially, maybe not on the ground in Ukraine,

00:26:09.400 but very close to the front lines where this battle is being conducted.

00:26:13.740 And so, because of this, they're learning not only in terms of the medical needs for the hospital staffing that they are going to need,

00:26:21.300 Russia operating mobile hospital units throughout Ukraine, throughout the front line.

00:26:26.060 And in addition, they're learning new targeting techniques, which have been coming to bear,

00:26:31.540 and then seeing how those targeting techniques using drone warfare, in addition to precision-guided missile bombing, will be used in a maritime conflict.

00:26:41.740 That being said, possibly the most dangerous and the most risky new form of warfare that we've seen coming out of the Ukraine conflict

00:26:51.260 is the utilization of these Russian and Iranian-built drones, and specifically the kamikaze drones and drone swarms.

00:26:59.920 So, the ability of these drones to target a strike vehicle, to select their target, to travel to the target,

00:27:09.940 have a very cheaply produced, very easily made vehicle.

00:27:15.720 We've also received reports that China may have been learning how to build these drones as well.

00:27:20.440 And the real danger there is that these drones would be devastating,

00:27:24.780 specifically to surface fleets and potentially even aircraft carriers.

00:27:30.400 Because the United States, and including the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force,

00:27:35.380 our air defense capability is predicted on planes and missiles.

00:27:40.400 These drone swarms would have the ability to penetrate those defenses.

00:27:44.440 Preparation for war.

00:27:52.380 What level do you call it preparation for war?

00:27:54.920 In the end, do you have the tactics to motivate and mobilize the troops?

00:28:01.400 And do you do training and enter into the verification phase?

00:28:04.760 If you don't do that, you can't invade.

00:28:07.420 I'm mad about that country.

00:28:08.640 Let's do war tomorrow. 0.98

00:28:09.780 You can't do that.

00:28:10.520 So, in an organized manner, even if they talk about invasion into Taiwan,

00:28:15.160 there has to be organized preparation or else it's not possible.

00:28:18.120 So, the final military preparation activity, is it launched or not, that would enable them to invade?

00:28:26.580 They are unprepared, completely unprepared in that sense, by that yardstick.

00:28:30.620 Because totally, there has to be logistics and weapons development and hospitals.

00:28:36.720 Yes, you could call that preparation, but that's just general training for general peacetime military forces.

00:28:45.840 It's not preparation for war.

00:28:48.080 So, China is in no way engaged in preparation for war.

00:28:51.240 Well, Jack just pointed out that drones with AI will be used for the future of warfare.

00:29:02.940 That's the assumption.

00:29:04.240 And what about the readiness of the Japanese self-defense forces?

00:29:09.880 Well, drones will be mobilized in a great number.

00:29:12.840 So, they are making all sorts of preparation.

00:29:14.900 They are getting ready.

00:29:15.660 And, of course, not just the defending is not enough.

00:29:18.500 We have to strike a bag if we are attacked.

00:29:21.680 So, such an attacker structure is being prepared by self-defense forces.

00:29:27.000 But Japan has had its own history.

00:29:29.600 So, we have to prepare so much.

00:29:31.880 There are three strategic defense documents that were published last year.

00:29:35.080 There is a defense development plan.

00:29:37.160 And there is a third annex to this document.

00:29:39.520 And in the past, there was a national defense program that was made back in 2018.

00:29:45.620 And the contents is pretty much the same.

00:29:48.600 So, Japan, if it wants to double self-defense forces, are they really serious?

00:29:53.520 I have a big question mark looming over that.

00:29:55.860 The structure of self-defense forces has to be strengthened.

00:29:58.700 They say things like they cannot hire people and so on.

00:30:01.600 Maybe they can improve the treatment so that they can find recruitment more, much, much easier.

00:30:06.540 Thank you.

00:30:10.180 Preparations for war.

00:30:12.440 We heard from the experts, the professionals, from the general.

00:30:17.740 We heard that currently they are unprepared for invasion into Taiwan.

00:30:21.860 But Gordon said we shouldn't just think about Taiwan, but the Philippines and Japan.

00:30:27.920 And they are becoming quite militant.

00:30:31.060 China.

00:30:31.380 But at any rate, one thing that could be said, Xi Jinping, he publicly says that he would annex Taiwan.

00:30:43.400 So, at the same time, what is the time limit?

00:30:46.280 Of course, that kind of announcement is accompanied by a time limit that considered.

00:30:53.320 Currently, there are at least two big wars.

00:30:55.500 This one is Ukraine versus Russia in Europe, and the other one was the recently commenced Middle Eastern war between Israel and Hamas.

00:31:08.400 And all of the attention is towards those two wars.

00:31:11.720 So, in this Far East region, people have been distracted from the Far East.

00:31:20.140 No one is now interested.

00:31:22.200 Would Xi Jinping consider this as an opportunity?

00:31:24.840 And during, people's attention is devoted to those two wars.

00:31:29.540 And while this mumbling President Biden is still into power, he has to do something decisive.

00:31:35.480 Would he think so?

00:31:36.820 But even then, thinking about the Chinese economic growth being lackluster, they can't prepare for war, so he has to hesitate?

00:31:47.800 No choice but to hesitate?

00:31:49.420 How do you judge that?

00:31:50.660 Gordon?

00:31:51.700 Well, I agree with the general that China is not prepared to go to war.

00:31:55.520 And the Chinese military certainly isn't, because we've seen the purges at the top levels of the military,

00:32:01.160 especially in the rocket force, where 11 generals this summer were disappeared.

00:32:06.920 And indeed, you know, China doesn't have a defense minister right now.

00:32:10.420 The old one was last seen in public on August 29th.

00:32:13.920 He was formally sacked on October 24th.

00:32:16.920 And Xi Jinping has not been able to replace him, which means there's political turmoil in the civilian side of the Communist Party as well.

00:32:24.500 But to say all this doesn't mean that China is not going to war. 0.89

00:32:28.380 You can go to war in many ways, and sometimes being unprepared.

00:32:32.840 So, for instance, as you point out, there are so many instances right now where you have the Philippines,

00:32:40.000 you can have all sorts of intercepts in the global commons, in the air and on the sea.

00:32:45.780 If something goes wrong in one of those, I don't think the Chinese political system can act reasonably right now,

00:32:52.700 because only the most hostile answers would be considered to be acceptable in Beijing,

00:32:58.120 which means that China could very well stumble into war.

00:33:02.120 And we've got to remember the other thing is that Xi Jinping himself, he's got domestic incentives to go to war.

00:33:08.060 You mentioned the economy.

00:33:09.760 Yeah, China's economy is terrible right now, probably not growing,

00:33:13.700 and is certainly not producing the output necessary to service its debt.

00:33:17.320 But that means that Xi Jinping has an incentive to go to war to rally the Chinese people.

00:33:24.240 Chinese people right now are pretty unhappy about a lot of things.

00:33:27.580 But the one thing he can do is to raise and stoke ugly nationalism.

00:33:32.740 And he's been doing that for years.

00:33:34.920 He could ramp that up.

00:33:36.240 He could go after Japan, for instance. 0.92

00:33:38.740 And so we've got to be concerned that any little incident can become the one that triggers war.

00:33:44.420 You know, Xi Jinping is very, very crafty.

00:33:48.040 I mean, he has green-lighted the invasion of Ukraine.

00:33:51.780 You know, he's helped Iran with regard to attack on Israel. 0.64

00:33:55.760 China and Russia have been fueling insurgencies in North Africa that look like wars.

00:34:00.720 Xi Jinping may decide, for reasons which may seem ridiculous or just completely unreasonable,

00:34:07.020 he can nonetheless go to war because it makes sense for him domestically.

00:34:12.000 He's got the domestic incentives to be reckless and to actually go to war when we think he wouldn't.

00:34:25.280 Absolutely.

00:34:27.300 Well, we may have a rational thinking, but they don't necessarily make a judgment based upon rational thinking.

00:34:35.640 But if his counterpart country is very weak, then you can do all sorts of things against that country.

00:34:43.600 But Taiwan has so much war potential.

00:34:46.580 So without making any preparations, you cannot just casually start a war against Taiwan.

00:34:51.780 Because if it doesn't go well, Xi Jinping will lose power.

00:34:57.220 So unless he's 100% sure he will be successful, I don't think he's going to go to the war.

00:35:03.060 So maybe he will try to approach Taiwan here and there.

00:35:06.400 But a fully fledged war, so much preparation is necessary, including maritime blockage and cyber attacks and so on.

00:35:13.880 Those are not enough.

00:35:15.000 Is that what you mean?

00:35:15.880 Yes, that's my view.

00:35:19.780 What if then, what if the situation would make China decide to invade?

00:35:29.680 Then you talked about maritime blockade.

00:35:33.780 If maritime blockade is conducted, then in order to make that successful,

00:35:40.140 Okinawa, Sakshima Islands included would have to be blockaded, right?

00:35:44.000 And that automatically means that Japan will have to be entangled and the United States will get involved.

00:35:53.480 Say we fall into such circumstances.

00:35:55.520 One possibility would be Xi Jinping, DPRK, Russia.

00:36:02.080 Xi Jinping takes some kind of action to be on China's side.

00:36:09.720 And then the self-defense force would have three enemies on three sides.

00:36:14.460 So that would be very risky.

00:36:17.780 And Xi Jinping requests Russia and DPRK, and they would respond. 0.76

00:36:22.680 So what's the level of likelihood?

00:36:24.260 And if they do that, how would China propose?

00:36:28.840 What would, pro quo, try to persuade DPRK and Russia?

00:36:34.300 Gordon.

00:36:34.560 One of the things we've got to understand is that in the context of the world right now, global order is fast eroding.

00:36:43.600 And so things that we believe can't happen or unlikely to happen could very well happen.

00:36:50.100 And we are seeing this, for instance, with a number of disagreements around the world could spiral into war.

00:36:56.640 So, for instance, this very moment, Venezuela is thinking of invading its neighbor, Guyana, which is just ridiculous thinking when you think about it.

00:37:05.480 But the point is that with the world as it is, that anything can happen.

00:37:11.360 And so, yes, China is certainly going to lean on Pyongyang to either invade South Korea or to launch missiles at Japan.

00:37:20.520 We know that this North Korean regime views Japan as its enemy.

00:37:27.720 And this enemy is, in North Korean terms, there's anger and there is disagreement and all sorts of stuff.

00:37:34.860 But also the Russians, they want to grab more Japanese islands in the north, in the Kurils. 0.87

00:37:40.000 So, clearly, there could be this front you talk about.

00:37:44.020 And that means, you know, we can talk about probabilities, but the point is Japan needs to be prepared.

00:37:51.040 And the general has been in the forefront of getting Japan to be prepared for the unlikely.

00:37:57.400 I would, if I can add, we've talked a lot about China's preparation.

00:38:03.320 We've talked about how Japan is, and I certainly hope, is able to prepare and expand its level of preparation.

00:38:10.200 Thirdly, though, I have to say, as a veteran of the United States Navy, and particularly the United States Seventh Fleet, home ported here in Japan,

00:38:20.040 that we don't know at this point if the United States Navy is prepared to respond to a scenario like Taiwan

00:38:28.780 or even any of these smaller spiraling conflicts that Gordon is laying out,

00:38:33.720 because the United States Navy has not been focused on seamanship.

00:38:37.700 It has not been focused on war fighting.

00:38:39.340 It has not been focused on war games.

00:38:41.800 It's been focused on social programming.

00:38:44.580 It's been focused on gender identity crises, various LGBT agendas.

00:38:51.600 You're more than likely to find a sailor these days focused on these things,

00:38:56.540 rather than any of the issues that we've discussed today.

00:38:59.620 And I saw this when I was serving in the Navy, when I was serving here in the Seventh Fleet,

00:39:03.860 and it's only gotten far, far worse.

00:39:06.840 The sailors and the, number one, the mishaps that you have seen are increasing.

00:39:13.040 We are increasing at sea.

00:39:15.040 We're increasing at air.

00:39:16.460 Even in port, we have mishaps where our ships are burning down at the pier.

00:39:20.960 The United States Navy, unfortunately, I'm sad to say, is not in a state of preparation.

00:39:26.060 And if Xi Jinping were to take advantage of it, he would be at his best timing.

00:39:35.520 Well, I almost regret that I asked this question, hearing the answer.

00:39:40.360 So, currently, the U.S. military forces are in this kind of state of affairs.

00:39:47.280 I understood that.

00:39:48.160 At the policy level now, looking at the policies in 1945, and since then, the U.S.

00:39:58.900 has maintained a policy of Japan not having independent defense forces in a way.

00:40:03.820 So, Japanese self-defense forces are a complementary force to the U.S. forces.

00:40:09.680 So, Japanese self-defense forces are not forces, fully-fledged forces.

00:40:14.700 As a result, defense and foreign policy that are unique to Japan have been impossible.

00:40:19.820 That is because Japan has been, like, subsidiary to the U.S., so self-resilient.

00:40:31.480 So, under such a difficult situation, according to Jack, do you think there will be a possibility

00:40:37.640 of Japan being able to change such a policy?

00:40:40.180 Do you think the U.S. will allow that?

00:40:43.160 U.S. policy has remained unchanged and will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.

00:40:49.640 So, you know, the U.S.

00:40:54.540 When it comes to U.S. fighters, U.S. missile, U.S. EU system, they use that hardware assets.

00:41:02.520 But half of weapons capability is software, which is intangible.

00:41:07.540 You can't see the inside.

00:41:09.320 So, we can't elucidate what's ongoing in the software.

00:41:11.980 The United States would develop weapons, F-35, they develop F-35 fighter plane, and there

00:41:21.600 is basic software, but when it is graded up second to third version, then for the first

00:41:29.140 time they would export to Japan.

00:41:30.920 That's not only United States.

00:41:33.120 That's the general practice around the world in terms of weapons export, because they don't

00:41:38.200 want to be defeated by foreign enemies.

00:41:40.840 So the fighter planes and missile systems that we import is encoded in the U.S. style,

00:41:49.000 data link.

00:41:50.560 The fighter planes on the air and missile on land and ship on the plane, we used to use

00:41:57.620 telephone lines.

00:41:58.440 I'm going west.

00:41:59.260 I'm going east.

00:42:00.220 Telephone lines used to be used.

00:42:01.480 You don't have to talk anymore because data link is there.

00:42:04.560 You know what your friends and allies are doing.

00:42:08.320 Because it's encoded in the U.S. style, the encryption is the U.S. style, and the data

00:42:13.540 is linked based upon the U.S. style format encryption.

00:42:17.320 So if the U.S. forces would support, then SDF is quite robust.

00:42:23.540 But without U.S. cooperation, then we would not be able to defend as an organization.

00:42:29.220 That's the positioning of the SDF, and we think that this will continue if America wants to

00:42:36.940 control Japan. 0.52

00:42:39.880 So if we want to be resilient, we have to come up with domestic fighter planes and domestic

00:42:44.740 missiles on our own, domestic manufacturing.

00:42:48.260 But if we try to manufacture, there would be a lot of criticism from the United States.

00:42:54.360 Italy, U.K., the new fighter plane will be done with collaboration with these little countries

00:42:59.840 through hard thinking.

00:43:02.340 Because if it's U.K. and Italy, U.S. can't complain.

00:43:07.320 They may be able to complain if it's just Japan 100 percent. 0.89

00:43:12.340 But eventually, it was Prime Minister Nagasone who abandoned that plan.

00:43:17.420 We have three fighter, three types, two are U.S., license manufactured in Japan.

00:43:24.740 One fighter model can be domestic.

00:43:29.400 So we used to do the negotiations with the U.S. forces.

00:43:32.680 But Ron Yasu, Reagan, and Nakasone did an agreement.

00:43:38.680 So he was persuaded to do joint development rather than 100 percent Japan.

00:43:43.420 So we cried at that moment because we tried so hard, 40 years, to do domestic production.

00:43:51.440 So I really was shocked about that Prime Minister's judgment.

00:43:56.020 And that continues today.

00:43:58.780 Well, thank you very much.

00:44:02.380 How can you follow that?

00:44:03.960 So there is a current policy, historical policy.

00:44:14.560 This is a historical fact.

00:44:16.960 Then the situation or the times we live in have changed.

00:44:20.140 So do you think that the U.S. has an intention to change the current policy?

00:44:24.580 I think during the Trump administration, I think attention was being paid.

00:44:28.940 Do you think when the next President Trump administration is born, do you think there is a likelihood that the U.S. policy will change?

00:44:39.120 There's a consistency to U.S. policy in the region.

00:44:43.200 And, of course, it's affected by who's ever in the Oval Office at the time.

00:44:47.400 But Japan and the United States have formed a strong bond.

00:44:51.940 And we Americans are very fortunate to have Japan as our cornerstone ally because it is our most important ally in the region.

00:45:01.640 And, you know, as I mentioned, policies will differ as we see different administrations.

00:45:07.340 But there is a certain consistency to America's attempts to strengthen the region.

00:45:13.820 And really one of the most important things right now we're seeing, and this is not – we're seeing it in the Biden administration,

00:45:19.720 but this is the result of long-held U.S. policy going back many administrations.

00:45:26.180 We're seeing Japan and South Korea work together really for the first time.

00:45:31.600 And that's important because it bolsters the defense of both countries.

00:45:35.640 You know, the United States is an ally of Japan.

00:45:38.720 South Korea is an ally of Japan, but South Korea and Japan are not allies.

00:45:44.360 And they're still not, and they probably won't be for some time, but they are working very closely together.

00:45:49.660 And in the United States, you hear a term called JAROKUS, which is Japan, ROK, South Korea, and the U.S.

00:45:59.120 And that is forming a durable partnership.

00:46:03.180 It can be better.

00:46:04.280 Biden can be doing more, as Jack has pointed out.

00:46:06.840 But at least we're moving in the right direction.

00:46:09.380 As I said, we Americans are very fortunate to have Japanese friends at our side.

00:46:14.740 Okay, thank you.

00:46:15.960 I would say that in order to maintain the balance of power in East Asia, of course, 0.97

00:46:25.800 the United States, given the status of our Seventh Fleet as it stands, PACOM in general, Indo-PACOM now,

00:46:31.720 we need the support of the strongest allied military in Asia, and of course, that is Japan.

00:46:38.880 As far as the policy question, I agree with Gordon that in Washington, D.C., we have this organization or unofficial organization called The Blob.

00:46:49.680 And The Blob sort of controls foreign policy and the State Department, and they don't like Donald Trump very much and his ideas.

00:46:58.420 And so I'll just say this, that in 2025, when Donald Trump returns to the White House,

00:47:06.520 I will personally discuss the status of the Japanese Self-Defense Force with him and with his administration

00:47:14.800 and explain that in order to prevent any invasion of Taiwan, we must allow for the expansion and the increase of the Japanese military.

00:47:30.040 And we will invite the general to get his entire list of everything that needs to be included.

00:47:38.420 I'm so happy that we are putting this event together, C-PAC.

00:47:54.080 Jack, please, by all means, it's almost time to wrap up, so I have one final question.

00:48:01.660 General Atamogami, so Katena base of Okinawa F-15 fighter jet.

00:48:08.420 The pilots and family members used to live in or near the base, and now withdrawal has been made.

00:48:18.000 And from the Alaska base, on a rotation basis, latest fighter jets are now coming.

00:48:23.840 On a rotation basis, such a change has been made.

00:48:26.940 Do you think that this will affect Japanese defense?

00:48:30.860 What sort of implications will it have on Japan's defense?

00:48:33.680 And one question is that, from the viewpoint of the U.S. forces, probably this is something that I read in a U.S. newspaper.

00:48:42.940 Being there is dangerous.

00:48:45.080 Being there in itself can be dangerous.

00:48:47.400 Because China will make its first attack, and then if the U.S. forces are neutralized, then it's not going to be effective anymore.

00:48:57.220 So rather than having a permanent presence there, having another location where you can fly immediately on a rotation basis, it makes more militaristic sense.

00:49:08.260 Is that the thinking as to why permanent presence has been removed from Japan?

00:49:14.120 What's your expert view?

00:49:15.720 I think it's a lie.

00:49:17.480 It's false.

00:49:18.100 From the U.S. military or forces aside, I think they find the public finance very tight, and they don't want to say that, or they don't want to say that the deterrence will be diminished, and so on.

00:49:33.840 So I think it's just for the optics.

00:49:36.800 So I think if there is a permanent presence, and if the enemy comes, so be it.

00:49:41.320 That will be the largest deterrence, really.

00:49:44.140 So if you strike, you can hit us, or I can strike back.

00:49:49.720 That's deterrence, or double the payback, and so on, if an invasion is made by China.

00:49:56.080 The U.S. is not going to help or rescue us.

00:50:00.660 There can be deterrence.

00:50:01.860 It's very unlikely.

00:50:03.400 Maybe, like Ukraine, they may provide weapons, but against China, which is armed up with nuclear weapons, facing a China failure, squarely, engaged in a battle,

00:50:13.920 or war, he's very unlikely.

00:50:17.620 Thank you very much.

00:50:19.220 Deterrence will decline, right?

00:50:21.700 Well, I agree, actually.

00:50:23.540 I think the Biden administration will, and they lie to the American people, they lie to the Japanese people, so at least in that way, they treat us the same.

00:50:31.320 But it's very true that under this president, the United States economy has been in decline.

00:50:37.540 Inflation is very high in the United States.

00:50:39.860 We've seen a decline in military spending as well.

00:50:42.640 And, of course, we're seeing this.

00:50:44.620 If you go back to the Cold War, the way the United States Navy used to measure the readiness of the Russian Navy, or at that time the Soviet Navy,

00:50:54.220 we would say, how much time do you spend at sea?

00:50:56.880 How much time do you actually spend deployed?

00:50:59.040 Our Navy, if you look in terms of days at sea, our ships have been staying closer and closer to home more than ever,

00:51:07.720 really in the last 15 years, and very much ramped up under the Biden administration.

00:51:13.220 It's very clear there is a financial element to this.

00:51:16.100 And, of course, in order for American deterrence to be at its previous state of readiness, you're going to need an America with a strong economy.

00:51:25.260 This, of course, will be greatly, greatly benefited from our relationship with Japan and also potentially decoupling with China.

00:51:33.360 If there's fiscal reason in the United States, then all the more so, that would be the basis to encourage Japanese self-resiliency, would it not? 0.96

00:51:49.360 Of course.

00:51:54.180 Yeah, I agree with Jack that the U.S. economy needs to be stronger.

00:51:59.440 It was stronger on the previous administration, and if President Trump were re-elected, which I agree he will be,

00:52:06.480 the U.S. economy will regain that strength.

00:52:09.300 But remember, this is a relative issue, and right now the Chinese economy is not growing at the 5.2% pace that they claimed for the first three quarters of this year.

00:52:19.920 It's probably growing, if it's growing at all, at 1%, maybe zero, probably contracting.

00:52:25.520 So we're talking about an economy in China that is at a distressed state, specially distressed.

00:52:33.300 Also, it can't, whatever rate it's growing, it can't produce enough output to service China's enormous debts.

00:52:41.020 So really what we've got is a situation in China where we have to look at the comparison.

00:52:47.060 And in comparison, Japan and the United States are doing very well.

00:52:51.040 The United States, you know, with regard to Taiwan, there's a lot of people that have different issues about what we would do.

00:52:58.420 But when it comes to a treaty obligation, the United States is clear.

00:53:02.980 We will defend our treaty allies.

00:53:05.260 And Japan is our treaty ally in Asia.

00:53:09.340 There's no question about that.

00:53:10.620 Last words.

00:53:19.360 To maintain the U.S.-Japan relationship and continue deterrence is very important to prevent war.

00:53:26.860 But what if war happens?

00:53:30.720 U.S. won't come to help.

00:53:32.560 We will be in Ukraine's position.

00:53:35.200 So Japan has to strengthen our military forces.

00:53:38.320 We have to be ready to fight if there is war.

00:53:41.140 That has to be the capability of the SDF.

00:53:43.960 You don't know what will happen tomorrow in this world.

00:53:46.160 We have to be well prepared.

00:53:48.680 Thank you so much.

00:53:53.280 Now it is about time to conclude the session.

00:53:56.060 Did you have a good time?

00:53:56.820 Well, this kind of conversation, we have had all sorts of discussions today.

00:54:07.240 We shouldn't just keep it as a panel discussion.

00:54:09.920 This is a starting point to the next Japan-U.S. relations.

00:54:15.780 No longer Prime Minister Abe, Trump may come back.

00:54:18.740 But no matter what, Japan-U.S. relations are very important.

00:54:22.340 So for new Japan-U.S. relations and to cover a new future for Japan,

00:54:26.420 I'd like to keep making echoes.

00:54:27.840 Another big round of applause to the panelists.

00:54:29.620 Thank you so much.

00:54:30.320 Thank you very much.

00:54:32.560 Thank you.

00:54:32.960 That concludes Part 1 of World War Asia, live from Tokyo, Japan.

00:54:42.800 Come back tomorrow for Day 2, where the stakes get even higher.

00:54:47.860 Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission.

00:54:49.740 Thank you.

Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - December 04, 2023

EPISODE 618： WORLD WAR ASIA - LIVE FROM JAPAN PART 1

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