This is what happens when the 4th Turning meets 5th Generation Warfare: a two-part special from Jack Possovic and his team of experts on the issues of the rise of China, what it means for the world, and global security, and specifically for East Asia.
00:10:01.380The most important thing to understand about the Joe Biden summit meeting with Xi Jinping was actually said by the White House before the summit took place.
00:10:12.620And what was stated at that White House press conference was that there will be no economic decoupling of the United States and China.
00:10:21.940This is incredibly significant because Joe Biden, more so than possibly any other United States elected official,
00:10:30.580is more responsible for the rise of the CCP in the world than anyone else currently serving in the United States government.
00:10:38.160And, of course, we know that through his son, Hunter Biden, his family has become very, very financially advantageous through this relationship themselves.
00:10:52.720And so because he has a personal stake in the rise of China, he will never do anything to stop the underwriting of Chinese business, of Chinese finance,
00:11:03.420and ultimately the People's Liberation Army by the United States and U.S. foreign direct investment.
00:11:10.120Biden is a pro-China politician, and he will never stop being one.
00:11:21.900The Congress, however, is one after another coming up with bills that are being passed about Chinese economy to stop the Chinese economic growth.
00:11:33.420or the critical raw material, including state-of-the-art chips to stop exports.
00:11:42.720On the other hand, as you have rightly pointed out, Biden and his family are completely flooded by the corruption that they are being paid by the Chinese.
00:12:01.380What would happen to this contradiction?
00:12:04.320Well, I would see this contradiction, of course, in terms of the public and the private tracks, in terms of Biden's rhetoric versus Biden's actions.
00:12:13.220And I say that when you look at specifically this chip situation, this is directly tied to the status of Taiwan and their ability to operate,
00:12:22.620maybe not completely as a sovereign nation, but independently of the People's Republic as it stands.
00:12:28.440When Donald Trump was in office, he was making sure that the United States stood with Taiwan and the United States stood economically with Taiwan.
00:12:38.840However, if you look at what Biden has done, and I'm very interested in, as Gordon has said, these 20 deliverables, these 20 agreements between the U.S. and China,
00:12:48.300because we know that China has been working very strongly to build their own domestic semiconductor capacity within their country in order to offset any potential split or decoupling with Taiwan.
00:13:01.860Of course, under Trump, those deals were all going forward with Taiwan, particularly in the semiconductor field.
00:13:09.560However, under Biden, we've seen that China has been able to really ramp up their own domestic production of these semiconductors.
00:13:17.400And, of course, they're not just looking at dominating East Asia with this.
00:13:21.520Their ultimate plan through these semiconductors, and they're already ahead of where the United States is, is, of course, eventually space.
00:13:29.000One of the ways to reconcile this contradiction that you point out is that Joe Biden is the president in a democratic society.
00:13:37.040He knows there's so much pressure against China.
00:13:39.440And as Jack is saying, he's doing the least that he can do as a leader of a democratic state.
00:13:46.460So, therefore, I think that you can see that Jack is right about this, that Biden is doing the least possible.
00:13:58.220For the U.S., under the Biden administration, I think he wants to maintain the status quo because it's most beneficial for the United States on the part of China.
00:14:10.740So, if they maintain the current situation, I think China is at a disadvantage.
00:14:21.060So, China wants to change this kind of situation.
00:14:24.820And now, the United States, under President Biden, the U.S. has to support President Biden in a way, but at the same time, he has to expose his misdeeds.
00:14:39.340So, I think that is why a lot of controversy is happening.
00:14:42.300Gordon, you said there was no photo taking, no joint declaration.
00:14:53.120Under such circumstances, what about Taian?
00:14:55.800Some rumors that there was a secret agreement regarding Taiwan.
00:15:00.980What do you think about that likelihood?
00:15:06.500Yeah, certainly, they were certainly going to discuss Taiwan.
00:15:10.080That's at the top of Xi Jinping's mind because Xi Jinping has staked his personal credibility and his political standing on annexing Taiwan during his rule.
00:15:19.500And I'm sure that Xi Jinping said to Biden that he wants the U.S. to stop arms sales, to stop diplomatic support.
00:15:27.600And, you know, Biden may have mumbled something.
00:15:29.720But whatever Biden might have said, remember that he can't deliver because Taiwan has support throughout the American political scene.
00:15:40.080Both Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives.
00:15:43.720So, Biden can say something, and I'm sure he probably tried to, but ultimately, he can't deliver.
00:15:52.080Well, I completely agree with Gordon here that Biden, I'm sure, will tell everyone afterwards that he stood up for Taiwan,
00:16:01.060that he stood up for the defense of the democracy of the island of Taiwan, their sovereignty as a nation.
00:16:06.740But in terms of actually doing anything, to use his own word, deliverable, to achieve greater protection for Taiwan, he's not going to do that.
00:16:17.540And, of course, that would be actually tied back to what I was saying earlier, a potential economic either decoupling or at least a diminishment of the direct economic ties between the U.S. and China,
00:16:30.640instead of offshoring, reshoring, or potentially looking at other opportunities for partners in the region.
00:16:37.480And, of course, you're also not hearing anything at the same time regarding Joe Biden putting forward a stronger alliance from a military perspective with Japan, which is what he should be doing.
00:16:50.780I don't think there was any secret agreement, because President Biden has only one more year.
00:17:03.780And I think there's very little likelihood he'd be reelected.
00:17:09.120So, under such circumstances, would Biden make any promise?
00:17:14.580And President Xi Jinping himself, whatever Biden says, I don't think she would believe that it's a commitment.
00:17:21.580So, as I said, I think they tried to fill out their gut feelings and nothing was decided.
00:17:29.300One point, though, that I think is very important, as you say, this may be Joe Biden's last year in office, but there is, and I know, Gordon, you've mentioned this as well,
00:17:38.360that there is someone who was holding meetings with Xi Jinping recently in the U.S. on the Democrat side.
00:17:44.360And this is a man by the name of Gavin Newsom.
00:17:47.320And Gavin Newsom's second-track diplomacy with Xi Jinping directly, both in China and then back in the United States, in San Francisco, the Bay Area,
00:17:59.600I think is very important for people who consider that if Joe Biden potentially does not run again, as many people have predicted,
00:18:08.520that it is a strong likelihood that Gavin Newsom, who we saw was debating Governor Ron DeSantis last night in the United States,
00:18:17.120could potentially step up to fill that role on the Democrat side.
00:18:20.920I think Gavin Newsom's very close relationship and very close ties with Xi Jinping must be looked at carefully.
00:21:29.520Of course, we don't think it will be successful.
00:21:31.400But if it ends up not being successful, then Xi Jinping, regarding Taiwan invasion or Japan invasion, will probably not do it, will not take the action.
00:23:08.240And if China wants to invade Taiwan, it will take more time, because there is a scene between more than half a year, considering China's readiness.
00:23:17.760So at this point in time, within half a year, China making an aggression against Taiwan or Japan is very unlikely at this point in time.
00:23:54.620It's stockpiling grain and other commodities.
00:23:57.360It's supporting other bad actors like Russia and Iran in their war efforts.
00:24:01.800It's surveying the United States for nuclear weapons strikes.
00:24:04.920And it's mobilizing China's civilians for war.
00:24:08.640I mean, we don't know dates, as the general talked about.
00:24:12.060But the point is, we know that they're getting ready to do this, which means that the United States, Japan, Philippines, our friends and allies in the region have got to assume that we could be at war at any time.
00:24:24.780Because we talk about Taiwan, but right now at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, China's engaged in extremely belligerent activities, the type that can lead to war.
00:24:35.840We know that China is ignoring warnings from our State Department, from President Biden, about the Philippines.
00:24:43.160We know all sorts of things that are going on.
00:24:45.760And any single incident can spiral downward into conflict.
00:24:49.840So, you know, let's talk about 2025 or 2035.
00:24:55.460But let's remember that it can happen at any time.
00:24:58.980Well, Jakusan, according to some China in Fujian province, they are now building a large military hospital.
00:25:13.000And also there are some other military-related infrastructure being built.
00:25:20.640They have initiated the construction work already, according to some reports.
00:25:25.500So, such a preparation for war by China, what's your assessment, please?
00:25:29.360So, China is working very closely with Russia in terms of understanding how the Russian intelligence and Chinese intelligence are learning so much from the on-the-ground conflict in Ukraine right now.
00:25:45.560This conflict that they are using, while certainly would be quite different in terms of, you know, one is ground, one is maritime, from Ukraine to Taiwan.
00:25:55.360But there are a lot of lessons learned that China is taking from the Ukraine conflict.
00:26:00.480And there have even been some reports that Chinese military officers are working with Russian military officers, potentially, maybe not on the ground in Ukraine,
00:26:09.400but very close to the front lines where this battle is being conducted.
00:26:13.740And so, because of this, they're learning not only in terms of the medical needs for the hospital staffing that they are going to need,
00:26:21.300Russia operating mobile hospital units throughout Ukraine, throughout the front line.
00:26:26.060And in addition, they're learning new targeting techniques, which have been coming to bear,
00:26:31.540and then seeing how those targeting techniques using drone warfare, in addition to precision-guided missile bombing, will be used in a maritime conflict.
00:26:41.740That being said, possibly the most dangerous and the most risky new form of warfare that we've seen coming out of the Ukraine conflict
00:26:51.260is the utilization of these Russian and Iranian-built drones, and specifically the kamikaze drones and drone swarms.
00:26:59.920So, the ability of these drones to target a strike vehicle, to select their target, to travel to the target,
00:27:09.940have a very cheaply produced, very easily made vehicle.
00:27:15.720We've also received reports that China may have been learning how to build these drones as well.
00:27:20.440And the real danger there is that these drones would be devastating,
00:27:24.780specifically to surface fleets and potentially even aircraft carriers.
00:27:30.400Because the United States, and including the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force,
00:27:35.380our air defense capability is predicted on planes and missiles.
00:27:40.400These drone swarms would have the ability to penetrate those defenses.
00:31:51.700Well, I agree with the general that China is not prepared to go to war.
00:31:55.520And the Chinese military certainly isn't, because we've seen the purges at the top levels of the military,
00:32:01.160especially in the rocket force, where 11 generals this summer were disappeared.
00:32:06.920And indeed, you know, China doesn't have a defense minister right now.
00:32:10.420The old one was last seen in public on August 29th.
00:32:13.920He was formally sacked on October 24th.
00:32:16.920And Xi Jinping has not been able to replace him, which means there's political turmoil in the civilian side of the Communist Party as well.
00:32:24.500But to say all this doesn't mean that China is not going to war.
00:32:28.380You can go to war in many ways, and sometimes being unprepared.
00:32:32.840So, for instance, as you point out, there are so many instances right now where you have the Philippines,
00:32:40.000you can have all sorts of intercepts in the global commons, in the air and on the sea.
00:32:45.780If something goes wrong in one of those, I don't think the Chinese political system can act reasonably right now,
00:32:52.700because only the most hostile answers would be considered to be acceptable in Beijing,
00:32:58.120which means that China could very well stumble into war.
00:33:02.120And we've got to remember the other thing is that Xi Jinping himself, he's got domestic incentives to go to war.
00:36:34.560One of the things we've got to understand is that in the context of the world right now, global order is fast eroding.
00:36:43.600And so things that we believe can't happen or unlikely to happen could very well happen.
00:36:50.100And we are seeing this, for instance, with a number of disagreements around the world could spiral into war.
00:36:56.640So, for instance, this very moment, Venezuela is thinking of invading its neighbor, Guyana, which is just ridiculous thinking when you think about it.
00:37:05.480But the point is that with the world as it is, that anything can happen.
00:37:11.360And so, yes, China is certainly going to lean on Pyongyang to either invade South Korea or to launch missiles at Japan.
00:37:20.520We know that this North Korean regime views Japan as its enemy.
00:37:27.720And this enemy is, in North Korean terms, there's anger and there is disagreement and all sorts of stuff.
00:37:34.860But also the Russians, they want to grab more Japanese islands in the north, in the Kurils.
00:37:40.000So, clearly, there could be this front you talk about.
00:37:44.020And that means, you know, we can talk about probabilities, but the point is Japan needs to be prepared.
00:37:51.040And the general has been in the forefront of getting Japan to be prepared for the unlikely.
00:37:57.400I would, if I can add, we've talked a lot about China's preparation.
00:38:03.320We've talked about how Japan is, and I certainly hope, is able to prepare and expand its level of preparation.
00:38:10.200Thirdly, though, I have to say, as a veteran of the United States Navy, and particularly the United States Seventh Fleet, home ported here in Japan,
00:38:20.040that we don't know at this point if the United States Navy is prepared to respond to a scenario like Taiwan
00:38:28.780or even any of these smaller spiraling conflicts that Gordon is laying out,
00:38:33.720because the United States Navy has not been focused on seamanship.
00:38:37.700It has not been focused on war fighting.
00:46:15.960I would say that in order to maintain the balance of power in East Asia, of course,
00:46:25.800the United States, given the status of our Seventh Fleet as it stands, PACOM in general, Indo-PACOM now,
00:46:31.720we need the support of the strongest allied military in Asia, and of course, that is Japan.
00:46:38.880As far as the policy question, I agree with Gordon that in Washington, D.C., we have this organization or unofficial organization called The Blob.
00:46:49.680And The Blob sort of controls foreign policy and the State Department, and they don't like Donald Trump very much and his ideas.
00:46:58.420And so I'll just say this, that in 2025, when Donald Trump returns to the White House,
00:47:06.520I will personally discuss the status of the Japanese Self-Defense Force with him and with his administration
00:47:14.800and explain that in order to prevent any invasion of Taiwan, we must allow for the expansion and the increase of the Japanese military.
00:47:30.040And we will invite the general to get his entire list of everything that needs to be included.
00:47:38.420I'm so happy that we are putting this event together, C-PAC.
00:47:54.080Jack, please, by all means, it's almost time to wrap up, so I have one final question.
00:48:01.660General Atamogami, so Katena base of Okinawa F-15 fighter jet.
00:48:08.420The pilots and family members used to live in or near the base, and now withdrawal has been made.
00:48:18.000And from the Alaska base, on a rotation basis, latest fighter jets are now coming.
00:48:23.840On a rotation basis, such a change has been made.
00:48:26.940Do you think that this will affect Japanese defense?
00:48:30.860What sort of implications will it have on Japan's defense?
00:48:33.680And one question is that, from the viewpoint of the U.S. forces, probably this is something that I read in a U.S. newspaper.
00:48:45.080Being there in itself can be dangerous.
00:48:47.400Because China will make its first attack, and then if the U.S. forces are neutralized, then it's not going to be effective anymore.
00:48:57.220So rather than having a permanent presence there, having another location where you can fly immediately on a rotation basis, it makes more militaristic sense.
00:49:08.260Is that the thinking as to why permanent presence has been removed from Japan?
00:49:18.100From the U.S. military or forces aside, I think they find the public finance very tight, and they don't want to say that, or they don't want to say that the deterrence will be diminished, and so on.
00:50:03.400Maybe, like Ukraine, they may provide weapons, but against China, which is armed up with nuclear weapons, facing a China failure, squarely, engaged in a battle,
00:50:23.540I think the Biden administration will, and they lie to the American people, they lie to the Japanese people, so at least in that way, they treat us the same.
00:50:31.320But it's very true that under this president, the United States economy has been in decline.
00:50:37.540Inflation is very high in the United States.
00:50:39.860We've seen a decline in military spending as well.
00:50:44.620If you go back to the Cold War, the way the United States Navy used to measure the readiness of the Russian Navy, or at that time the Soviet Navy,
00:50:54.220we would say, how much time do you spend at sea?
00:50:56.880How much time do you actually spend deployed?
00:50:59.040Our Navy, if you look in terms of days at sea, our ships have been staying closer and closer to home more than ever,
00:51:07.720really in the last 15 years, and very much ramped up under the Biden administration.
00:51:13.220It's very clear there is a financial element to this.
00:51:16.100And, of course, in order for American deterrence to be at its previous state of readiness, you're going to need an America with a strong economy.
00:51:25.260This, of course, will be greatly, greatly benefited from our relationship with Japan and also potentially decoupling with China.
00:51:33.360If there's fiscal reason in the United States, then all the more so, that would be the basis to encourage Japanese self-resiliency, would it not?
00:51:54.180Yeah, I agree with Jack that the U.S. economy needs to be stronger.
00:51:59.440It was stronger on the previous administration, and if President Trump were re-elected, which I agree he will be,
00:52:06.480the U.S. economy will regain that strength.
00:52:09.300But remember, this is a relative issue, and right now the Chinese economy is not growing at the 5.2% pace that they claimed for the first three quarters of this year.
00:52:19.920It's probably growing, if it's growing at all, at 1%, maybe zero, probably contracting.
00:52:25.520So we're talking about an economy in China that is at a distressed state, specially distressed.
00:52:33.300Also, it can't, whatever rate it's growing, it can't produce enough output to service China's enormous debts.
00:52:41.020So really what we've got is a situation in China where we have to look at the comparison.
00:52:47.060And in comparison, Japan and the United States are doing very well.
00:52:51.040The United States, you know, with regard to Taiwan, there's a lot of people that have different issues about what we would do.
00:52:58.420But when it comes to a treaty obligation, the United States is clear.