Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - December 05, 2023


EPISODE 619： WORLD WAR ASIA - LIVE FROM JAPAN PART 2

Topics
world war perspectives
Hosted by
Jack Posobiec
Guests
Gordon Chang
Mentioned
Donald Trump Jr. Joe Biden Keigo Takasaki Netanyahu Representative Aoyagi Tucker Carlson Hitoshi Aoyaki Candace Owens Roseanne Barr Rob Schneider Steve Bannon J. Aiba Entrepreneur Takasaki-san Margaret GuTER Bernard Quintena Patrick Bet-David Gavin Newsom Hillary Clinton Jonathan Isaac James Lindsay and 14 more
EPISODE 618： WORLD WAR ASIA - LIVE FROM JAPAN PART 1 EPISODE 620： TOMMY ROBINSON JOINS HUMAN EVENTS, TAYLOR SWIFT OP ACTIVATED

Episode Stats


Length

43 minutes

Words per minute

132.75

Word count

5,832

Sentence count

406

Harmful content

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

19

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Part 2 of the final session of the 4th Turning Point panel discussion on the possibility of a full-on war between Israel and Hamas. Host Jack Posobiec and panelists Hitoshi Aoyaki, Keigo Takasaki, and Gordon Chang discuss the implications for Japan and the Middle East.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Ladies and gentlemen, we know Christmas is coming, but before Christmas, the gathering
00:00:07.400 of patriots requires your attendance.
00:00:11.540 Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, myself, Donald Trump Jr., Steve Bannon, Roseanne Barr, yeah,
00:00:21.240 that's right, Rob Schneider, James Lindsay, and so many more are going to be at this year's
00:00:27.340 Turning Point America Fest, December 16th to 19th, 2023, Phoenix, Arizona, you are going
00:00:35.300 to be there, your presence is required, go to amfest.com and use promo code POSO, that's
00:00:41.040 promo code POSO, amfest.com, secure your tickets now, don't come crying to me when this thing
00:00:47.780 is sold out like it does every single year, amfest.com, promo code POSO.
00:00:57.340 This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
00:01:06.420 A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
00:01:13.140 This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
00:01:16.060 Deliver us from evil.
00:01:18.200 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard.
00:01:19.560 Today brings you part two of World War Asia, live from Tokyo, Japan.
00:01:25.300 Remember, this is myself, the leading experts of Japan, military experts, political experts,
00:01:32.760 medical experts, and we are joined by Gordon Chang.
00:01:36.540 Today we are talking about the grim possibility of what happens if the war in Israel, the war
00:01:42.680 that's going on, the proxy war in Ukraine, breaks out into a full-on war that engulfs the
00:01:50.100 United States, Russia, Iran, and China.
00:01:54.060 Remember, this is Mearsheimer's warning that the United States would be brought into a multi-front
00:02:01.460 global conflict.
00:02:03.400 Are you ready for the fourth turning?
00:02:05.600 Because you're in one.
00:02:06.640 We now proceed to the final session.
00:02:12.940 The title is World War, Israel vs. Hamas. 0.85
00:02:21.100 Let me introduce to you the panelists.
00:02:24.960 First, member of the House of Representatives and director of the International Bureau of
00:02:32.500 Japan Innovation Party, Hitoshi Aoyaki.
00:02:37.000 Welcome him with a round of applause, please.
00:02:41.260 Next, senior editor and former naval intelligence officer, Mr. Jack Posobiec.
00:02:54.960 And CPAC board member, columnist, Gordon Chang.
00:03:13.500 Entrepreneur, YouTuber, and goodwill ambassador for Israel, Keigo Takasaki.
00:03:19.880 Let me again introduce to you the panelists.
00:03:34.760 First of all, member of the House of Representatives and director of the International Bureau of
00:03:39.920 the Japan Innovation Party, Hitoshi Aoyaki.
00:03:42.520 After graduating from university, he worked for JICA, where he worked on reducing poverty
00:03:48.160 in Africa and reconstruction of Afghanistan.
00:03:52.960 He is the first class of the Isshin political training program.
00:03:57.620 And in 2021, he won the election in Osaka as a rookie member from the home ground of the
00:04:03.800 Japan Innovation Party.
00:04:05.020 And he is currently director of the International Bureau of that party.
00:04:11.020 Senior editor and naval intelligence office veteran, Jack Posobiec.
00:04:17.020 CPAC board member, columnist, Gordon Chang.
00:04:24.880 Entrepreneur, YouTuber, goodwill ambassador for Israel, Keigo Takasaki.
00:04:30.360 And the moderator is JCU chairman, J. Aiba.
00:04:37.360 Big round of applause, please.
00:04:51.360 Yes, please come to the front, please.
00:04:53.360 Well, over to you, Mr. Aiba.
00:04:59.460 Thank you.
00:05:02.040 Well, thank you very much for staying until the final session.
00:05:09.200 So what we see on the news every day, there are painful developments.
00:05:16.160 Last year, the Ukraine-Russia war started.
00:05:19.140 And this year, on the 7th of October, in the Gaza Strip of Israel, a war broke out.
00:05:30.800 So what kind of ripple effect will this have on the world and Japan?
00:05:35.920 This will be the theme of the last session.
00:05:40.580 First, let me go through some of the facts, starting with what happened.
00:05:45.180 And 7th of October, Hamas, which is an Islam-Turko group, I will talk about that in more detail
00:05:55.920 later, from their base in Gaza, launched missiles into Israel.
00:06:02.480 That was the first event that occurred.
00:06:05.320 And between Gaza and Israel, there are various barriers and walls, which were destroyed by tractors
00:06:13.460 and park lighters were used to invade into Israel.
00:06:20.060 And on the Israel side, near Gaza, there were music festivals.
00:06:25.220 And so Hamas attacked such festivals, and many Jews, as well as Americans and other nationalities,
00:06:37.360 were taken as hostages.
00:06:40.560 And Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel called for the support across all parties
00:06:48.680 and established an emergency coalition government, and counterattacked by resiles, as well as ground
00:06:57.340 forces were formed.
00:06:59.980 National unity government was formed.
00:07:04.760 And so for 10 days, there was a stop in the fighting, which was terminated today and were broke out again.
00:07:13.000 And it is said that about 70% of the construction in Gaza has been destroyed during the attacks.
00:07:21.860 So let me talk a little bit more about Hamas.
00:07:27.140 Hamas is a group that is calling out for an all-out war with Israel.
00:07:31.380 They are an Islamic group.
00:07:34.300 And from 2007, they have overtaken Gaza through military arms. 0.75
00:07:39.640 And they are now the main force behind this attack.
00:07:43.000 So Hamas in Gaza and Israel, the situation is very fluid, as well as very violent.
00:07:57.460 So what kind of impact this will have on the world and Japan will be the main topic of today's discussion.
00:08:03.600 So let me go on to my first question.
00:08:05.780 In Israel and in Gaza, what is happening, truly?
00:08:12.600 What is the status of the battle?
00:08:16.240 I would like to invite Jack Bolsovik, who was an information officer as well as a journalist, please.
00:08:22.260 Yes, thank you very much, Jay.
00:08:23.380 And, of course, your description of the attack, Hamas' attack on October 7th, was quite sufficient.
00:08:31.940 And, in fact, I believe that one of the main pieces to that attack that really caught the world by surprise
00:08:39.720 was the fact that the Israeli defense forces were caught by surprise, that there seemed to be no security whatsoever.
00:08:47.440 These areas of Gaza that have been, prior to then, heavily fortified were also maintained under strict surveillance and monitoring by the Japanese,
00:08:58.200 or excuse me, by the Israeli defense forces, the IDF.
00:09:02.120 And so the fact that Hamas was able to plan this, was able to conduct this attack,
00:09:07.400 and was able to be, from a military perspective, successful in this attack, really a terrorist attack, paramilitary, if you want to put it that way,
00:09:16.520 is very, very important, very, very significant, and must be investigated fully.
00:09:24.620 Currently on the ground in Gaza, as you say, there's been a 10-day ceasefire that ended today.
00:09:29.900 Because the ceasefire ended, you're now seeing the uptick in, so we saw the hostages returned.
00:09:35.600 Now you're seeing the strategic bombing by the Israelis has continued northern Gaza predominantly.
00:09:43.820 However, there are and have also been fighter strikes in the south, in southern Gaza, along Rafa, along some of the other axes.
00:09:51.400 You're also seeing this encirclement by the IDF ground forces of Gaza in the north.
00:09:57.340 This is where they believe most of the hostages currently are.
00:10:00.800 This is where those tunnels are.
00:10:02.320 This is where the hospital was that's been the center of so much of the fighting.
00:10:06.820 So the specific ground operations have mainly been around the north.
00:10:12.220 Their tanks, their soldiers have been encircling it.
00:10:14.840 However, they have not penetrated deep inside Gaza City yet,
00:10:19.260 because, of course, it is so heavily fortified, and there are so many hostilities.
00:10:23.560 This is one of the densest populations.
00:10:26.600 In fact, believe it or not, it's even an area that's more dense than Tokyo itself.
00:10:31.180 These people are literally living on top of each other in this area,
00:10:34.820 many of whom are hostile, many are not hostile.
00:10:37.880 There's no way to know who's in there.
00:10:39.720 This is why the Israeli Defense Force, the IDF,
00:10:42.800 is still using this bombing campaign and tanks as little as possible,
00:10:48.560 because they know that the minute they send ground forces into Gaza City itself,
00:10:53.340 Gaza City proper, they are going to be attacked on all sides by Hamas and their allies. 0.93
00:10:59.940 Thank you very much for your concise and very exact description of the current events.
00:11:07.340 So, Takasaki-san, you were on the vaccination model.
00:11:15.480 So, in YouTube, you can't say vaccine, but now I can say vaccine very clearly.
00:11:21.680 So, Takasaki-san, you were on that panel.
00:11:24.160 But you're also the ambassador, goodwill ambassador for Israel.
00:11:29.220 So, what is the current status of Israel as you see it, Mr. Takasaki?
00:11:34.560 Thank you.
00:11:37.300 Well, let me just state at the onset that I am an official goodwill ambassador for Israel.
00:11:46.000 But what is being done by Israel administration,
00:11:51.420 I'm not going to justify everything that they're doing.
00:11:55.080 I do think that Israel needs to do some soul-searching as its identity. 1.00
00:12:02.420 So, now, Prime Minister Netanyahu is acting like God to some extent.
00:12:12.320 So, I would like to share my frank views with you.
00:12:17.160 So, there are two points that I would like to raise.
00:12:20.600 First, what is the aim of Hamas?
00:12:25.640 Propaganda.
00:12:26.160 Because the world is being moved in a direction that they feel bad for the people in Gaza
00:12:37.480 and that Israel is more of the perpetrator.
00:12:42.320 And so, Hamas has been making many fake accounts and creating news of, for example, little children crying.
00:12:53.960 And that is being spread to all over the world.
00:12:58.100 So, why Israel has to bomb these civilian areas?
00:13:03.360 Well, Hamas' sole mission is to completely destroy the nation of Israel.
00:13:08.400 And the presence of Hamas is, of course, an existential threat to Israel.
00:13:14.080 But if they try to attack Hamas, actually, their tunnels are like a beehive.
00:13:21.560 And so, they need to find the entry point into these tunnels.
00:13:25.540 And Hamas actually places the entry point under hospitals or schools.
00:13:30.800 So, they are making the people of Gaza as the defense. 0.94
00:13:40.720 And so, they need to – and so, Israel is forced into attacking civilians
00:13:46.480 because hospitals and schools are actually guarding these tunnels entry.
00:13:51.960 And also, is there a clear delineation between the fighters and the citizens?
00:14:01.440 Actually, it's very difficult because the Hamas do not wear the battle gear. 0.93
00:14:06.960 They look like civilians.
00:14:08.220 So, it's very difficult to tell them apart.
00:14:10.900 And from their childhood, they were educated based on hatred that Israel is evil.
00:14:19.220 That was the education for the past 18, 20 years by Hamas. 0.98
00:14:25.020 And so, the children who are educated in this manner is now becoming 18 years old, 20 years old.
00:14:30.440 And so, it is very difficult to clarify who are the fighters, who are the civilians.
00:14:41.580 So, Israel has notified the civilians to escape into the south.
00:14:45.980 But Hamas is actually preventing them from escaping or evacuating.
00:14:51.120 So, it's such a difficult situation for Israel.
00:14:55.120 Thank you.
00:14:55.920 In combat, even in the activities and behavior of civilians, it's hard to imagine living in Japan. 0.89
00:15:06.660 So, I think the fact that it's hard to imagine living in Japan was understood by the audience.
00:15:10.940 Now, this all started in October, this conflict between Israel and Hamas.
00:15:16.120 But this isn't the end.
00:15:18.860 It's not just that particular district.
00:15:21.000 But will it cause change to the Middle East?
00:15:26.480 That's the concern.
00:15:27.640 During the Trump administration, there was the Abraham Accord between Israel and Arab countries.
00:15:33.740 And there was positive evolution.
00:15:36.740 But Biden administration turned that over, upended that.
00:15:41.200 And after Trump left, Israel and the fundamentalists in Palestine, extremists, have forgotten what Trump said.
00:15:51.600 So, everything is in chaos.
00:15:53.760 So, this conflict will impact the Middle East situation in general.
00:15:59.960 Gordon Chang and Mr. Posevic, could you share with us your hypothesis, your analysis?
00:16:06.520 Gordon, please.
00:16:07.220 Well, first of all, what we're seeing is region-wide conflict.
00:16:12.380 It is spread.
00:16:13.360 It's not just Hamas.
00:16:14.380 It's now the Houthi militia and Hezbollah as well.
00:16:18.140 All three groups are Iranian proxies, and they're backed by China.
00:16:22.700 And so, we've got a region right now that looks like it's going to slip into further conflict.
00:16:29.820 There may be pauses.
00:16:31.480 There might be even long pauses.
00:16:33.100 But I think that governments in the region realize that Hamas has got to be destroyed.
00:16:40.080 If you talk to the Gulf Arabs, other than Qatar, you'll find that nobody there wants Hamas to exist anymore.
00:16:50.380 And that is good, in a sense, that they're coming to that assessment.
00:16:54.740 But also, Iran understands this, which means that this war will continue for some time.
00:17:01.300 And remember, this is being fueled by Iran, which is being fueled by China.
00:17:06.080 And those are actors that want this to continue.
00:17:09.480 So, I think that we shouldn't expect that this will last quite a long time.
00:17:15.160 Remember, this is occurring in the context of a general breakdown in peace and stability around the world.
00:17:20.620 So, what would normally maybe be a short-term war, I think will become a long-term one.
00:17:29.340 Thank you very much.
00:17:31.720 And Jack, can you share your views as well?
00:17:33.900 Well, I agree with Gordon that this regional conflict has already escalated beyond just Israel-Hamas.
00:17:40.520 Of course, Israel-Hamas is the most kinetic form of this, but not only do you see Hezbollah and the Houthis getting involved,
00:17:49.320 but now we are seeing all sorts of Iranian-backed groups across the Levant, across Syria, from Iran, and also inside Iraq,
00:17:57.840 making attacks on U.S. bases and current U.S. forces that operate on those bases within these areas,
00:18:04.500 many of which with Kurdish defense forces, the SDF, and so forth.
00:18:09.180 And so, because the U.S. has such a robust footprint across the Middle East, it still continues to do so.
00:18:14.700 All of those bases will currently be within and are now basically with crosshairs on their backs.
00:18:23.200 What Gordon says about the context, the greater context of the world order,
00:18:27.480 one subject that we didn't discuss on our last panel, but I'd certainly love to broach,
00:18:32.040 is, of course, the rise of BRICS and the rise of the BRICS nations, the BRICS bloc.
00:18:37.460 At their recent summit, they were not able to agree on increasing the number of BRICS nations,
00:18:44.560 but we've already seen Saudi Arabia has applied to join, Iran has applied to join,
00:18:49.360 and certainly some combination of this or some relationship will take place.
00:18:53.220 What's happened is that Russia and China have fused such a mutually beneficial relationship,
00:19:01.980 and now with Russia being isolated from much of the Western world,
00:19:06.200 you're seeing this new bloc form an economic and then eventually military relationship
00:19:12.520 away from the West and away from the United States and its allies. 0.98
00:19:16.280 So in order to understand how all of this is moving, we must also look at it through the lens of the BRICS nations
00:19:24.000 and the way they view themselves as hardening themselves, strengthening their military,
00:19:28.480 strengthening their posture against what they view as NATO, what they view as potentially a threat from NATO.
00:19:36.580 And then, of course, the question being, does Xi Jinping view Japan and view these other nations
00:19:42.500 as threats to itself, the way that we're seeing Russia and now the way we're seeing Iran respond?
00:19:51.500 Thank you.
00:19:53.680 BRICS was mentioned. Thank you for mentioning that.
00:19:59.880 And this will lead to the final point, so I'm going to delve deep into that subject later on.
00:20:04.200 But before I do so, this Israel versus Hamas conflict will impact the Middle East situation in general.
00:20:11.760 If that were the case, in fact, in Japan, that would have many impacts to Japan.
00:20:16.700 What serious is, currently in Japan, the oil we consume, 90 percent is from the Arab countries. 0.98
00:20:25.120 So, this is directly linked to the energy issue, which we, the Japanese, must consider.
00:20:33.620 So, with the state of situation in the Middle East becoming more flux, what impact will there be?
00:20:39.760 How should the Japanese be prepared? 1.00
00:20:42.360 You are the Policy Research Council leader in the Japan Innovation Party, right?
00:20:47.720 So, Aoyagi-san, thank you.
00:20:52.300 I'm with the House of Representatives, and I'm a board member of the Foreign Affairs Committee.
00:20:57.040 And at the board meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, 20 Arab countries' ambassadors came,
00:21:02.740 and we had a discussion.
00:21:05.420 For the sake of fairness, we invited later on Israeli ambassadors, and they were talking about many things.
00:21:13.280 But the Arab ambassadors were all saying the following point.
00:21:20.500 They didn't ask Japan to be on their side. 0.61
00:21:23.300 They were saying, you can freely attack and criticize Hamas, but if there's violence of international law,
00:21:32.320 you should also criticize Israel.
00:21:34.580 That's the kind of Japan, with the fairness that we believe Japan has,
00:21:37.920 and that's the kind of Japan we want to continue to be prince with.
00:21:40.440 That was the message from those ambassadors.
00:21:42.780 Jay said, going forward, will there be economic impact?
00:21:46.580 No doubt.
00:21:48.420 Because Ukraine, Russia, there is oil shortage from imports, and that has caused inflation,
00:21:55.860 and that inflation is driven by oil or energy.
00:22:00.400 And mostly 100% of our oil comes from Middle East, so that is going to further flame inflation. 0.99
00:22:08.000 So we have to control the situation as early as possible.
00:22:11.020 But one point that I should have said before, what kind of position should Japan take?
00:22:18.760 I think there are two major perspectives.
00:22:21.640 This year, we are the presidency of the G7, and currently we are number four.
00:22:28.440 Germany has surpassed 200 countries around the world.
00:22:32.380 So four isn't bad.
00:22:34.900 Now, military spending presence is not so bad either.
00:22:38.600 So what does that kind of country do?
00:22:43.160 It's very important for global peace.
00:22:45.640 And I think there are two perspectives.
00:22:47.140 First, G7 presidency, and there's one ally, U.S., is part of the G7.
00:22:53.640 So if there's going to be a world war, as you mentioned, Israel is supported by many of
00:23:00.460 the G7, and Hamas, Palestine, is supported by China, Russia, and Iran.
00:23:05.200 So, of course, we should be on this side.
00:23:08.600 That's one perspective.
00:23:09.900 But on the other hand, if we do that, then what would happen to global peace?
00:23:14.740 We can't secure permanent global peace.
00:23:16.980 Because with this incident, for example, Israel ran against the resolution of the United Nations,
00:23:25.100 and even after the resolution was adopted, they continued to criticize.
00:23:29.240 So international order is something that all countries should abide by.
00:23:32.860 We need an organization to uphold international order, and Japan should exercise leadership
00:23:37.240 to uphold international order, or else it would lead to long-term peace in Japan.
00:23:41.880 So there are these two perspectives, especially in the case of the latter.
00:23:46.160 Arab countries have high hopes towards Japan regarding the latter, and for Japan, when we
00:23:51.020 think about permanent and long-lacing peace, we shouldn't be overly simplistic about the
00:23:56.760 possibility of world war.
00:23:58.480 So what would be our position in the future global community?
00:24:02.440 In the Security Council of the United States, finally, a resolution was adopted, and I talked
00:24:06.320 about those who were in the meetings.
00:24:08.000 Four times, voting was conducted, but U.S. veto, disabled.
00:24:12.800 So finally, what did they do?
00:24:14.420 They asked Russia and the United States to abstain in order to have the resolution adopted at
00:24:20.300 the Security Council.
00:24:21.240 So you need intelligence.
00:24:23.780 Ambassador Ishigane of Japan said, finally, Security Council delivered something.
00:24:28.300 That's what he said after the resolution was adopted.
00:24:30.600 If the UN Security Council stops functioning, that's the end.
00:24:34.260 So we have to have the international order continue to function, and I think that's needed
00:24:39.120 very much.
00:24:40.380 Thank you very much.
00:24:42.360 That was a very important point that you touched upon.
00:24:45.520 So listening to Aoyagi-san, I thought about this.
00:24:49.820 Japan actually has no direct involvement in Israel or Palestine.
00:24:58.760 We don't really have any direct stake or interest in it.
00:25:03.260 So Japan has some distance that we can keep, and so we can comment from neutral grounds and
00:25:08.840 perhaps point to a certain direction from a neutral point of view.
00:25:13.480 So Japan is in a special position in that sense.
00:25:17.760 So rather than letting the situation escalate, as Representative Aoyagi said, how we can prevent
00:25:25.740 escalation, if we can prevent the war from getting larger, that would be a positive role
00:25:32.740 that Japan could potentially play.
00:25:35.140 So getting back to CPAC, in U.S. domestically, what is the current situation of U.S. given the
00:25:46.200 war in Israel?
00:25:47.900 So we have seen on the news that there are many people who are voicing support to Israel.
00:25:53.980 On the other hand, there are also those who are more supportive of Hamas.
00:25:59.520 And even amongst the liberals, there are people who support Israel.
00:26:02.680 There are people who support Hamas.
00:26:04.680 And there is a lot of confusion and a lot of demonstrations going on in New York and other
00:26:09.120 cities.
00:26:09.580 So what is happening in the U.S. in light of the presidential election?
00:26:16.900 What kind of impact will the war in Israel have in U.S.?
00:26:21.180 I'd like to ask both Jack and Gordon, starting with Jack, please.
00:26:25.060 Well, as you say, Jay, there have been many rallies across the United States and really
00:26:30.400 parts of Western Europe as well in support of what they call the Palestinian Freedom Cause,
00:26:35.920 Palestinian Liberation, and many others point that this is a very anti-Israel position.
00:26:42.540 Predominantly, the people who are at these rallies, they find themselves on the left politically.
00:26:48.600 So this is part of what we would consider the Democrat coalition.
00:26:53.160 However, there is a significant split now in the Democrat coalition because you would
00:26:58.700 see many of these groups.
00:27:00.060 Some are ethnic groups like BLM, some of them are socialist groups like the Democrat Socialists
00:27:06.240 of America.
00:27:07.340 However, there is also the main stripe of a mainstream Democrat like your Joe Biden, like
00:27:12.680 a Hillary Clinton, perhaps even a Gavin Newsom, which is a neoliberal form of Democrat.
00:27:18.720 By and large, they and the Democrat leadership are pro-Israel and at least have nominally said
00:27:25.400 they want to stand by Israel.
00:27:26.660 Although, there have been many instances, even within the White House itself, because
00:27:31.500 there are so many pro-Islamic groups within the United States now, certainly even many
00:27:37.280 members of Congress that are pro-Palestinian.
00:27:40.460 And so Joe Biden has found himself in this position where he's had to act as sort of supporting
00:27:46.160 almost both sides.
00:27:47.560 He's being pulled in two different directions.
00:27:49.420 Politically speaking, this split on the Democrat side in their coalition is very advantageous
00:27:56.820 to, I believe, not just conservatives, but to pragmatic Americans who can see that one
00:28:04.440 side of which is supporting a terrorist organization, whereas the other side stands with maintaining
00:28:11.020 that strong world order, having the ability to actually stand for rights, for international
00:28:18.180 law.
00:28:18.920 Of course, this being the side that Donald Trump has always stood on, the side of peace, the
00:28:23.260 side of the Abraham Accords.
00:28:24.940 And so I think it's something where they view Biden's mismanagement as incredibly terrible,
00:28:30.800 not only in Ukraine and Taiwan, but here in Israel, whereby in, look, when President Trump
00:28:36.820 was there three years ago, these types of things weren't happening.
00:28:40.000 Now we have a world that is spiraling into war.
00:28:43.260 This makes it much, much more likely that Donald Trump will be elected.
00:28:48.340 And we're also seeing in polling that moderates and independents are now swinging back towards
00:28:53.600 Donald Trump where they were in the original election in 2016.
00:28:59.420 Thank you.
00:29:01.680 Gordon.
00:29:01.940 You know, the October 7 war has split the Democrats, as Jack just talked about.
00:29:07.860 The Ukraine war, if you want to look at this from a mirror point of view, split the Republicans
00:29:12.860 more than the Democrats.
00:29:15.140 But as Jack points out, and this I think is the most important point, and that is that whatever
00:29:22.060 one thought of Donald Trump's foreign policies, they kept the world at peace.
00:29:26.940 It was a stable world that Joe Biden inherited when he took the oath of office.
00:29:31.860 Now the world is falling apart.
00:29:33.760 People see that.
00:29:35.320 And I think that that has changed internal politics in the U.S.
00:29:39.160 Basically, that whatever one thinks about Joe Biden's domestic policies, they think that
00:29:44.640 the United States and the world can't stand his foreign policies because he's been responsible
00:29:50.000 for a general and noticeable deterioration.
00:29:53.980 As Jack said, we're spiraling into war.
00:29:56.040 And I think that that also helps heal the Republicans because although the split on Ukraine is a very
00:30:02.340 serious one in the Republican Party, I think people are starting to understand that this
00:30:07.200 is an existential fight, and that will tend to heal the divisions in the Republican Party.
00:30:13.240 Of course, you know, this is inherently an unpredictable situation, but it, I think, spells trouble for
00:30:20.820 the Democrats next November.
00:30:22.320 Gordon, if I could add to that, typically we don't see in American electoral politics,
00:30:29.200 typically foreign policy is low on the list.
00:30:32.080 Usually economics is number one, crime, immigration, somewhere up there, but foreign policy is low.
00:30:38.740 We're now seeing in polling that this may be the very first election in modern American history
00:30:44.520 where foreign policy makes it into the top three choices because particularly Joe Biden's
00:30:50.820 foreign policy has been so mismanaged and so poor.
00:30:54.340 And we've got another year for things to fall apart even further, as is now starting to appear
00:30:59.680 that even the Western Hemisphere might fall into a conflict situation with Venezuela attacking
00:31:05.220 Guiana, its neighbor, this is a conflict that's been simmering for a very long time, but has,
00:31:11.300 you know, under prior presidents, has maintained peace.
00:31:14.560 And now under Biden, that too is falling apart.
00:31:21.200 Thank you very much.
00:31:22.180 So, there is a massive confusion that is happening in the U.S., and that could very much impact
00:31:29.460 the result of the presidential election.
00:31:31.280 So, before we move on to the last topic, is there a way to resolve this issue?
00:31:39.240 Let us just stand apart and think about the resolution.
00:31:44.220 So, Mr. Takasaki, you're also a Christian, as well as a good ambassador for Israel.
00:31:50.720 So, from your position, how do you think that we can prevent the war in Israel from escalating
00:31:58.400 further?
00:31:59.260 It could be just a hypothesis, but what do you think is the way to resolve this?
00:32:04.880 In two minutes, less than two minutes, please.
00:32:06.520 Another point, from the perspective of the third shrine, in the Old Testament, there is
00:32:19.100 the second cathedral was broken, and then the third cathedral was, if the third cathedral
00:32:28.540 is constructed, the Messiah of the Jews will come down to earth. 0.99
00:32:32.420 So, that's what they want to do, the Jews. 1.00
00:32:34.240 Where is the place?
00:32:35.180 It is the Jerusalem Golden Dome, which is a very important, sacred place for Israel.
00:32:45.740 So, if you want to construct the third shrine or cathedral, you have to break that or destruct
00:32:52.820 that, the third temple.
00:32:57.240 And Iran is an Islamic country, so they don't want that to be destructed.
00:33:03.020 So, Islam and Jews, Old Testament, is the very basis.
00:33:12.300 On the other hand, Christians believe in the New Testament, which is about a new contract. 0.77
00:33:21.440 So, I think you can find the answer there, in the New Testament.
00:33:24.580 Christian Jews and Arab Jews, there are those people who are minorities, and they are hugging
00:33:33.140 with each other.
00:33:34.140 They have forgiven each other, and they are in solidarity, and that's reality.
00:33:39.120 And also, the book, you can't buy it today, but if you read that, the founder of Hamas, read
00:33:49.360 the Christian Bible, and was really impressed by the word of Jesus, love your enemy.
00:33:56.520 And what I was doing was bad.
00:34:01.520 He never heard anyone said that, love thy enemy.
00:34:07.920 So, he distances himself from his parents.
00:34:14.920 So, there are two that only is based upon the Old Testament, who are fighting against
00:34:21.200 each other, but then there is the New Testament.
00:34:23.920 And if both sides become aware, and is enlightened by the New Testament, there could be a resolution.
00:34:37.920 Looking over the history of humanity, one major reason of war is religion.
00:34:45.920 There are always differences in religion or ideology at the back of major wars.
00:34:51.920 And so, what you said, Mr. Takasaki, there is forgiveness or grace as part of Christianity,
00:34:58.920 and maybe there is a path to peace.
00:35:01.920 Thank you very much for that message.
00:35:04.920 So, let me move on to the last topic, this war in the Middle East.
00:35:13.920 We do not want to see this escalate into a world war, in worst case, third world war.
00:35:22.920 So, that is the topic that I want to talk about last.
00:35:25.920 So, we don't have much time.
00:35:26.920 So, if you could keep your comments brief, I'd like to ask Gordon and Jack, your views about
00:35:31.920 escalating into a world war.
00:35:33.920 We certainly don't want that to happen, but we've got to remember that it's not the United
00:35:37.920 States or Japan or the West that is driving events these days.
00:35:42.920 It is a coalition of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, maybe Algeria that is setting fires around the world. 1.00
00:35:49.920 And while I would like to certainly forgive and love my enemies, nonetheless, our enemies don't love us.
00:35:56.920 And so, therefore, we have to be prepared for the worst.
00:36:03.920 Thank you.
00:36:04.920 Gordon?
00:36:05.920 You touched upon BRICS.
00:36:06.920 So, can you again delve on that point as well as you share with us whether this will evolve into a world war?
00:36:13.920 Well, I certainly believe that while BRICS is at its heart an economic alliance, we're already seeing the inter-military activity
00:36:22.920 and cooperation between those militaries.
00:36:24.920 And so, I believe that will increase, maybe not so much with India, but certainly between Russia and China.
00:36:29.920 For my perspective, we must understand that great power competition is always going to be part of the international system.
00:36:39.920 It's certainly always going to be part of any decision that's made from the United States, from China, from Japan,
00:36:46.920 really any other, any great power in the world.
00:36:49.920 But the main thing that I would say for the United States that what we must learn is that we cannot force the hand of any of these nations.
00:36:58.920 And so, this is why I've always been so supportive and continue to be supportive of President Trump and his ability to bring all sides together
00:37:07.920 to create peace deals, but at the same time maintain a credible deterrence through the use of military force if he needs to.
00:37:16.920 And that's why, in 2025, when he returns to the White House, I predict he will go to the Middle East, 0.90
00:37:22.920 he'll end that battle, he'll go to Europe, he'll end that, and he will come to Asia and restore the balance of power here as well.
00:37:31.920 Thank you very much.
00:37:34.920 So, the re-election of President Trump is indeed the key to peace for the world.
00:37:44.920 Lastly, I'd like to ask Representative Aoyagi, if the war in Israel becomes a world war and impacts Japan,
00:37:55.920 how prepared is Japan or what kind of preparation do we need to make?
00:38:01.920 Well, as a politician, as part of the International Bureau, Japan is not prepared for war at all.
00:38:12.920 That is the reality.
00:38:13.920 If you ask the Minister of Defense or the Minister of Foreign Affairs, we're not prepared.
00:38:17.920 And our party is probably the most vocal about the need to build up a robust defense capability.
00:38:25.920 But from our point of view, we're not at all prepared.
00:38:28.920 So, if a world war breaks out, there's really nothing that we can do.
00:38:32.920 We are underprepared.
00:38:33.920 And so, we need to make improvements.
00:38:35.920 But one thing I wanted to note was that more than anything, we need ceasefire.
00:38:40.920 Because the earlier the ceasefire will be, the less people will need to be – can stay.
00:38:53.920 So, in Afghanistan, there were like 130,000 troops with NATO and the U.S.
00:38:58.920 And ultimately, Taliban took back the power.
00:39:01.920 So, what happened was because over the past 20 years, the number of Taliban combatants never decreased.
00:39:07.920 It was said to be 20,000.
00:39:09.920 Many were killed, but the number never decreased.
00:39:12.920 And why?
00:39:13.920 Because parents whose children are killed never forgive the enemy.
00:39:17.920 And same for the children whose parents are killed.
00:39:20.920 So, we need to decrease these people who lose their family members.
00:39:26.920 Because the longer the war goes on, the more they dedicate their life to defeating the enemy.
00:39:32.920 So, that's just human nature. 0.98
00:39:34.920 So, Prime Minister Netanyahu must achieve a ceasefire because he said that he will kill all the members of Hamas. 0.97
00:39:43.920 But that is impossible. 0.73
00:39:45.920 That is something that we have learned from history.
00:39:47.920 It's an impossible situation.
00:39:49.920 So, Japan should not support such an impossible strategy.
00:39:54.920 But we need to regain international order.
00:39:57.920 We need to achieve a ceasefire.
00:39:59.920 And so, there was a talk about the importance of forgiveness.
00:40:02.920 We need to be – that's what we need to promote.
00:40:07.920 So, you asked about the Third World War.
00:40:08.920 But as a politician, I am not in a position to comment responsibly on that question.
00:40:13.920 Thank you for being frank.
00:40:16.920 That was good, conversely speaking.
00:40:19.920 And currently, the Japan Innovation Party, as the second opposition party, should become the first opposition party.
00:40:25.920 And President Bapa, he's been criticized for radical words.
00:40:31.920 But, Mr. Aoyagi, as far as we listen to your comments, I feel the mission, strong mission and commitment of your party.
00:40:40.920 So, thank you for sharing that with us.
00:40:42.920 Yes, we heard diverse views and comments.
00:40:44.920 And when you go back home, take back from this session, what do you think?
00:40:50.920 And who will you support as politicians?
00:40:54.920 Who do you want the leader to be?
00:40:56.920 I think you have gained many food for thought.
00:40:59.920 Japan can continue to be in a neutral position.
00:41:02.920 So, Japan has a great role to play to minimize the wars.
00:41:06.920 And as Aoyagi-san said, to achieve ceasefire, we truly hope that this will be an opportunity for you to seriously think about this subject.
00:41:13.920 And thank you once again for your participation.
00:41:17.920 Thank you very much.
00:41:21.920 Once again, please give the panelists a big round of applause.
00:41:25.920 Thank you so much for listening and taking part in this historic seminar, CPAC Japan.
00:41:38.920 I want to thank the hosts and the organizers of CPAC Japan, Matt Schlapp and others, for putting all this together for us.
00:41:45.920 Gordon Chang, of course, as well as the experts in Japan.
00:41:49.920 Look, folks, we understand that the United States, our world, the rise of bricks, the proxy war in Ukraine, Israel, Hamas, all of this could potentially bring us to the witch's brew of World War Three.
00:42:06.920 There is a possibility to off ramp this.
00:42:09.920 There is a possibility to choose MAGA world peace.
00:42:14.920 But it's up to us to take it.
00:42:16.920 And there are literally trillions of dollars between us and that future standing in our way.
00:42:24.920 The only way, the only chance that we have forward is the spirit of the working man and woman in this world.
00:42:34.920 Ladies and gentlemen, you have my permission to lay a short.
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