Jack Posobiec is back with another edition of the Poso Daily Brief to help you stay up to date on the happenings in the world of politics and current events. Today's episode features: President Trump and his lawyers are demanding that Judge Juan Murchon be removed from the case because his daughter is a political consultant for Democrats. The Wall Street Journal has a new poll that shows Donald Trump leading in all the key swing states and could be on his way to a landslide victory in 2020.
00:01:18.340She said, please don't use the word animal, sir, when you're talking about these people.
00:01:21.960I said, I'll use the word animal because that's what they are.
00:01:24.620President Trump and his lawyers are demanding that Judge Juan Murchon be removed because his daughter is a political consultant for Democrats.
00:01:32.740Lauren Murchon is listed as president and partner in the political consulting firm Authentic Campaigns.
00:01:38.980Authentic does tens of millions of dollars of work for Democrats and progressive causes.
00:01:43.240Authentic boasts its clients include President Biden.
00:01:45.520The governor there has thrown his support behind an effort that would no longer allocate the electoral votes by a congressional district.
00:01:51.300Because right now, it's five votes there.
00:01:57.540If that changes, and we don't know that it will.
00:01:59.260The state legislature is going to look at it.
00:02:00.620But if that changes, that takes away Biden's best path to win, because if you get, if he wins, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses the other swing states and no longer picks up the one in Nebraska, 269, that leads playbook this morning.
00:02:15.860The alarm among Democrats that this is possible.
00:02:19.400But when these polls like the Wall Street Journal one land in the White House and he's losing all the battleground states.
00:02:23.940No, he's not losing in all the battleground states.
00:02:26.260He's coming up and he's even or doing better.
00:02:31.860Once people start to focus in and they see their two choices, it's obvious that Joe will win this election.
00:02:39.400According to the new numbers from the Wall Street Journal, Trump leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
00:02:48.980Well, ladies and gentlemen, welcome on board today's edition of Human Events Daily live from Washington, D.C.
00:02:56.580Today is April 3rd, 2024, Anno Domini.
00:03:01.740Battleground nightmare polls for Joe Biden, the installed president of the United States, the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
00:03:15.080You see, folks, and I'm looking through the poll numbers right here, and if we can get it up, guys, this is massive.
00:03:22.440This is massive because it is an entire repudiation of what Joe Biden and his campaign have been saying, saying, oh, America doesn't want Trump.
00:03:36.780This is what America will look like if the poll is taking place today, if the election is taking place based around these polls, landslide.
00:03:48.840You're talking a landslide victory for Trump.
00:04:17.980Now, we're going to have Richard Barris on later, and he's going to be on with us for the whole show to walk you through all of the permeations of this, how it matters, as pertains specifically to not only the Trump-Biden matchup.
00:04:30.220Because I think it's ridiculous that people are even asking that question in polls because that's not what the ballot is going to be.
00:05:01.460But what I'm saying is their candidacies and appearances on the ballot itself are going to have national impact in swing state after swing state.
00:05:12.140And that's what we're going to go through here, but to be very clear, Republicans are winning.
00:05:17.840Really, Trump is winning because this election is being swung on two issues.
00:22:08.220That's Rocky's – that's Rocky Philadelphia, and then you've got the Northeast.
00:22:13.100Yeah, and then speaking of which, as you get out of it and into areas like Bucs, the white vote in Bucs, a little bit more educated.
00:22:25.140It's not where Republicans have been in the past that once upon a time could win Bucs.
00:22:30.260Biden still seems to be a little bit holding his own there, but it doesn't matter.
00:22:33.920You're going to a place like Pittsburgh, and I mean, if it's a steelworker in Allegheny, Jack, it doesn't – it almost doesn't matter anymore if they're white or they're black.
00:22:42.620There's like this overall – I mean, of course it does.
00:22:45.160But I mean, they are becoming – the shift is massive, and it's not just men.
00:22:49.880It's not just those who don't have a college education, even though I just pointed to a steelworker.
00:22:55.420The college-educated female non-white in Pennsylvania told us they voted for Biden 80-something to 13, which is about right.
00:23:04.740Now Trump is in the 30s with him almost hitting – I mean, that's ridiculous.
00:23:09.320Even if he comes anywhere near those numbers, Jack, then Biden's got a big problem, and Biden's not doing as well in the Philadelphia suburbs.
00:23:20.320We would expect them to continue to inch and inch and inch to the left as all of these elections go on.
00:23:25.600But it's becoming a point now where he's treading water instead of inching – expanding that margin.
00:23:32.080It's almost like they've tapped out, right?
00:23:35.520Really? Because this is – and people know this is – that's my hometown.
00:23:41.280That's my – that's where I'm from, just outside Philly on the Montgomery County side.
00:23:46.520And then, of course, the Collar County, Bucs, Chester, and Delaware, Delco.
00:23:51.380You know, these are – Delco is the most working class of any of them.
00:23:56.260Lower Marion, that's where Shapiro is from, by the way.
00:24:00.020Norristown is where I'm from, other side of the tracks, as it were.
00:24:03.280And it's interesting because I will say, though, just anecdotally, I know from having family in the area that crime has been on the rise there.
00:24:14.140Because specifically violent crime and the perception of violent crime has gone up because you have this – and Bucs County has seen a lot of extreme violence as well because what's happened is that you've got people coming out of that city, coming out of Philadelphia, and they're coming into the suburbs, and they're bringing that out there.
00:24:33.900They're bringing that same type of lawlessness.
00:24:36.260They're bringing that same type of violence in ways that – in particularly places like – now, in Norristown, Pennsylvania, yeah, that's always been violent.
00:24:43.260That's been going really bad since the 90s.
00:24:46.000Right now, it's completely out of control, and people are getting shot up on the street where – like, right, learned how to ride a bike.
00:24:55.100And so it's so horrific that it doesn't surprise me that the current incumbent in the presidential office is seeing some – potentially some consequences from it.
00:25:06.900Yeah, I mean it's just – if he's going to counter what Trump is doing in the northeast, which is just insane, if he's going to counter that – and then, of course, couple that with Allegheny.
00:25:19.440I mean two swing counties, folks, for people who don't know, are Erie and Northampton.
00:25:24.060Erie is all the way in the northwestern corner of the state.
00:25:27.140Northampton is right outside the Philadelphia suburbs on the eastern border of the state, but a little bit south.
00:25:39.880Northampton looks like it's coming back.
00:25:42.560If you go and look at the map and look at the interview details, you'll see.
00:25:45.880I mean Erie County, same deal, even though we didn't – the general demographic makeup of who lives out there, it looks like Trump is going to carry Erie again.
00:26:05.160Same thing for Northampton, by the way.
00:26:07.240But this is – if Biden's going to counter all of that, he needs to just keep squeezing larger margins out of the burbs of Philly as well, of course, as Philadelphia itself.
00:26:55.320And he's above 50 and leads Biden by a few points, and that's a big deal.
00:27:00.540I mean statistically, it's a big deal.
00:27:02.440We've usually had Trump in the neighborhood of 48 percent, 47 percent in these final polls.
00:27:07.840He got 48.8 in 2020, very close to what we predicted he would get.
00:27:13.800So the fact that he is above 50 when we lean these people is just huge.
00:27:18.420And he's already – he leads Biden by four in just the head-to-head without the leaners, which is very close to the Wall Street Journal, very close, super close.
00:27:28.300I mean so the point – and by the way, the age thing, which I didn't get to, everybody, it's not just me.
00:27:36.760I mean it's to the point now where we're not talking about gains.
00:27:39.080You know, people are finding Trump leading with voters under 35 in several of these polls.
00:27:48.100Never would have happened in 16 or 20, Jack.
00:27:50.360I mean that's really something people have to understand.
00:27:52.800When I'm doing these polls and sitting at home and looking through the data and getting them ready for release, it's really stunning how things have changed.
00:28:05.280I would argue, by the way, that that's also very similar to what Trump's strategy has been by going to something that you outlined, a group of people, the idea of a zero-propensity voter and this idea that there are people who may be registered to vote, maybe not, and they don't engage with the news cycle.
00:28:30.520They don't engage with, you know, Fox or CNN or MSNBC or any of this stuff.
00:28:37.560They're not watching human events, certainly.
00:29:00.180And so this strategy that he's been making to embrace these non-traditional forms of media and non-political media, all the non-political, non-news media he's doing, I would argue, obviously, in addition to the issue set, does it actually seem like it's paying off?
00:29:40.700You cannot use the word early voting or mail-in voting.
00:29:43.520You can use early, but you can't say mail-in voting.
00:29:46.160They'll immediately regurgitate and recoil and run away.
00:29:49.780You have to talk a different way to them, which we've learned how to do.
00:29:52.800But you've got to get those people that you were just talking about on – because you have to make it easy for them to vote.
00:29:59.520So get them – and I think Laura understands this.
00:30:03.340Get them on the permanent absentee ballot list and then just make sure by multiple points of contact, which I'm not going to reveal, you get in touch with them and you remind them and you track them and make sure that that ballot eventually gets handed in.
00:30:18.300And then what's going – you're not going to win the early vote over Democrats, but you won't get killed 85-15 in Pennsylvania like Republicans keep getting killed.
00:30:27.540Maybe instead it will be 65-35 or 70-30 if you really do a good job.
00:30:35.220Then you still have all of your three out of fours and four out of fours that just won't bite and want to vote on Election Day because there was never a culture of early voting in a state like Pennsylvania.
00:30:45.160And they come out and put you over the top.
00:30:46.960It's a simple way to think about it, but that's what they got to do.
00:31:50.800Now, Rich, when we're looking at – let's expand out into the Rust Belt.
00:31:55.960So Pennsylvania, and everybody knows this, but for anyone who doesn't, it starts as an Acela kind of like Acela Corridor state in the east.
00:32:08.340And then as you move across, then it becomes like you've got Kentucky in the middle there.
00:32:14.560And then it becomes more and more of a Rust Belt state as western as you go.
00:32:20.260As you get past the Alleghenies, now you're in a Rust Belt state, and that's western Pennsylvania.
00:33:30.540And we're not there, but it's very clear that Trump is just romping it in the old Obama, Genesee, definitely Macomb.
00:33:44.940So the old Obama territory, Saginaw, those areas, and it has surprised me.
00:33:52.320And the more I've thought about it, the more I've thought maybe it shouldn't surprise us.
00:33:57.980Like I said, things do change, and based on the demographics that we are seeing realigning, maybe we should have expected this.
00:34:06.160Wisconsin on the flip side, which has been the most Trumpy out of the three in the last two elections, appears to be pulling the best for Biden.
00:34:13.400And there is a reason to think that may be right.
00:34:17.880First of all, there are a lot less Scandinavian ethnicity Midwest voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
00:34:27.580Of course, they have some, but that's why Minnesota is so difficult.
00:34:40.980However, in Wisconsin, there's also a huge chunk of Norwegians, and that's the battle.
00:34:46.520You know, that's how it gets so close.
00:34:48.300In Michigan, because the shift is so non-white, it kind of makes sense because Michigan, of course, has a larger black population than Wisconsin, which is whiter and more Asian.
00:35:01.320You know, and then even Republicans in a state like Wisconsin tend to be a little bit more, attitudinally, Pennsylvania and Michigan are much more Trump-like, attitudinally.
00:35:16.260Whereas in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it's more like Minnesota, Wisconsin, nice, you know, kind of thing.
00:35:25.020So, the point I'm trying to make is, even though Wisconsin tends to throw pollsters for a loop and the temptation for Republicans to think it will be the most Trumpy again this year, regardless of the polling, I would say caution.
00:35:40.540I don't know if that's going to be the case, and I really do think that these swings in Michigan are real, and there's a reason to expect that to happen.
00:35:49.460Like we just talked about in the last segment, all of those groups, it would impact Michigan more.
00:35:54.680And by the way, the author and the thesis writer of the Emerging Democratic Majority spends all his day on Substack flipping out about Michigan and Georgia, but Michigan, because it really is indicative of that non-white, non-college shift.
00:36:10.820And if that happens, the elective old college is going to be really, really difficult for a Democrat to carry.
00:36:16.360I mean, Joe Biden needs a plus four nationally.
00:36:19.180Jackie does in order to make sure he gets to college.
00:36:23.780Rich, it would be remiss of us to not talk about how – so you and I have been talking about the Rust Belt strategy, and this is sort of recreating the 2016 path to victory.
00:36:35.160Let's get the map up for everyone to see.
00:36:42.080However, what MSNBC has now caught on to and what Charlie Kirk spearheaded yesterday, which is now working its way through the Nebraska legislature,
00:36:51.660is this idea that we can now get to the point where – and this is amazing – there becomes another path to the presidency.
00:37:15.900People need to understand that if you – if we get the map up, guys, that –
00:37:21.020There are two states that allocate by district to – yeah, yeah, yep.
00:37:24.540If you can get – if you can get that state, if you can get Nevada to go over, now you get – now you get Nebraska to go winner-take-all.
00:37:39.700This is – this gives you something called the Sun Belt strategy.
00:37:44.400And the Sun Belt strategy shows that if you win Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, plus a winner-take-all in Nebraska,
00:37:54.500that puts Trump at 269 without even winning a single one of the Rust Belt states.
00:38:05.420Rich, walk us through how dangerous this scenario becomes for the Democrats.
00:38:09.680Yeah, I mean, they have been not only relying on it, but, I mean, the fact that they get that one district,
00:38:17.860which has been trending to them long before Trump came on the scene, by the way.
00:38:22.380It's some of the most dishonest analysis I've ever heard.
00:38:26.220It has been getting more blue because it's becoming a financial district.
00:42:04.340It is obviously – it's actually something that Charlie and the Nebraska legislature, Governor Pillen, I'm told, by the way, that it looks like Ricketts is going to be coming on board as well with something that's going to drop later today.
00:42:20.820That if Nebraska drops their electoral divination method, that they're going to be going for winner-take-all, now you're going to have a situation where Democrats are forced to have to defend.
00:42:37.900They're going to be on defensive in places like Minnesota, in places like Colorado, places that they wouldn't have to worry about.
00:42:47.880Because that means that if Trump can win Nevada, all right, and there's some interest.
00:42:52.840And with the Hispanic swing, it's possible, right?
00:44:16.040There are huge numbers of boats, hundreds of thousands of boats that they net out of the Twin Cities.
00:44:21.180If they're getting itchy over Minnesota, if they're getting antsy over Minnesota, they have a problem.
00:44:28.220Also, Nevada, I'm telling you, Lombardo, right, I mean, Trump endorsed him, but he was also – I mean, he's getting more Trumpy.
00:44:36.160He was kind of a key role in Nikki Haley being humiliated by losing to none of these candidates because there wasn't an effort to have that happen.
00:44:47.500But Lombardo was asked by the media at an event, and there were all these people around, and they made it.
00:44:54.480He said, I'll tell you what, I'm going to vote on Tuesday for none of these candidates, and then I'm going to take my butt on Thursday to the caucus site and caucus for Donald Trump.
00:45:02.620And that made the rounds in Nevada, and a lot of people showed up to that primary expecting to vote for Donald Trump, and that wasn't possible.
00:45:11.200So they voted none of these candidates.
00:45:12.500But also, a lot of people heard what Joe Lombardo said, Governor Lombardo said, and he did it.
00:45:17.900Let me just say this about Nevada because a lot of people have some big leads for Trump in that state.
00:45:23.280Lombardo we had down by two points less than Adam Laxalt in Clark County, and that's what happened.
00:45:30.660In Washoe County, we had Laxalt down by more than he lost it by, but basically everybody was decided, whereas Lombardo was just up a little bit, and he won it.
00:45:41.080Trump was up in Washoe County by four points in that poll, and he was also damn near tied in Clark County.
00:46:03.280You brought up Colorado before, but it's actually whiter and younger than a state like New Mexico, which has somewhere 30%, 40% of its electorate can be Hispanic.
00:46:13.560Joe Biden's entire margin in New Mexico was non-white, and if this shift is real, then Joe Biden's got a problem.
00:46:21.120They split the white vote down the middle in New Mexico in 2020.
00:46:24.360His entire 12-point or whatever roughly margin was from Hispanics.
00:46:29.660I mean, Jack, and by the way, Hispanics in New Mexico voted more for Trump than they did nationally.
00:46:36.100So if you're seeing this trend nationally and past this prologue, then a state like New Mexico could get real close real fast.
00:47:08.120Trump's lead, Trump's strength in these states is not being fueled.
00:47:12.100I mean, of course, he's getting huge numbers with white working class, but that's not what's fueling this shift.
00:47:18.560I long have said, you know, until this year that it will be very, very difficult for a Republican to even think about winning the popular vote, especially with Hispanic growth in this country.
00:47:29.600It's just not going to happen until Hispanics stop voting for Democrats at rates like that.
00:47:34.280Well, that's why Trump is winning in these polls.
00:47:38.800That's why he's up, whether it's two or four or they're even tied or Biden's up by one or two.
00:48:11.960If you just – it's just putting him in a really – this is like one of those times when you're playing chess and somebody makes a move that seems like – it seems kind of innocuous early in the game.
00:48:24.980And you say, oh, don't worry about that.
00:48:26.860That was just a pawn moved in a certain position, a certain combination.
00:48:30.840And then later on, when you get to the end stages of the game, you realize that's the pawn that's about to take out your entire kingdom.
00:48:42.380That's what the Sun Belt strategy just did.
00:48:45.220Rich Barris, where can people go to follow you to get more information about the big data poll?