Biden's lead in the polls has narrowed to 2 points, and is within the margin of error in four swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Polling is tightening across the country, and Biden is gaining ground on President Trump.
00:03:06.960So it's been a minute since we've been on.
00:03:08.540We've only got a couple of minutes in this short segment.
00:03:10.440But before we get in, we've got a lot of these top line national polls that have come out.
00:03:16.040But there's also a lot of swing state polls.
00:03:18.540Let me ask you, though, what are some of the biggest headlines and trends that we can talk about and that you see going on in polling right now in the race?
00:03:25.660Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of I told you so's to unpack in in a short segment, Jack.
00:03:32.120But I did tell people to expect these polls to close, number one.
00:03:36.280And number two, that RFK's position in the race is a lot more complicated or his impact on the race is a lot more complicated.
00:03:43.860And we're still not sure what, you know, is he going to be on all of these ballots.
00:03:48.560But even in our own polling that we just released in Pennsylvania and Michigan, it showed a tighter race.
00:03:55.260But Joe was saying something in that last segment on Fox News that that really is consistent.
00:03:59.900And that's been a big, big trend this whole year.
00:04:03.360The bottom line is when you ask voters who they trust to handle issues that are all these issues at this point, and then also who was a better president.
00:04:24.900The true swing voter is a problem for Joe Biden.
00:04:29.520And that's the real jump ball because we've got Biden, we got Trump, and we also have for the first time, and this is something that I want to get into you, into with you throughout the episode here, is whether or not we've got another potential Ross Perot-like candidate in RFK.
00:04:47.640Yeah, I've been telling people, even in our early polling, it was really highly suspect of how it looked like RFK was hurting Biden nationally because of the voter, the demographic profile of the voter who was voting for RFK.
00:05:05.300And it's like for your state, for instance, I wasn't seeing a lot of educated suburbanites in Delco or Montgomery voting for RFK.
00:05:13.280It's possible that he takes what remains of the white working class vote away from Joe Biden a little bit, but we're only seeing that in a handful of states.
00:05:23.100So in Minnesota, it hurt Joe Biden a little bit, but in Pennsylvania, it has been clear to us, a state like that, it has been clear to us that RFK actually hurts and hurts Donald Trump.
00:05:34.840If those voters had to choose in an A-B choice, they would go with Donald Trump.
00:05:39.180So it does vary by state, and national polling, honestly, is an exercise.
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00:09:01.860And I'm like, I think he's more well known.
00:09:04.960And to be clear, to be clear, Joe Biden has shown that he is scared of that because he's got a Joe Biden's got a huge problem on his far left flank.
00:09:16.020That's why he's trying to shore up his moderate flank.
00:09:20.080That's why he's scared about RFK, because he knows that there are some people that are potentially going to be out against him.
00:09:26.380That's why he's got the entire Kennedy family, very shameful, by the way, video that they did attacking their brother the way they have.
00:09:33.340I mean, just to publicly go after your own brother in such a way, it's your own family, your own your own kin, your own blood.
00:09:39.120It's just something something absolutely wrong about it.
00:09:42.040But at the same time, Rich, let's walk through some of these polls.
00:09:44.940NBC had a poll as well that said it's possible that more when they included RFK, that more Trump voters were going to him than Biden voters.
00:09:54.380Now, to be sure, Biden voters went to him as well, but it was almost double the amount of Trump voters.
00:10:10.280Some Fox polling had some really interesting stuff on this, and so do others.
00:10:14.500But he's now basically, as more people are getting to know him, he is now getting underwater, meaning there are more people who view him unfavorably than favorably.
00:10:23.180We'll have to see if that trend continues.
00:10:25.260But what is pushing that trend in the polls that are showing this are Democrats.
00:10:29.540They're not Republicans who still view him more favorably than the Democratic Party does.
00:10:34.840Listen, again, I really got to point it out.
00:10:37.240Like Michigan, which we just pulled and released a couple not last week.
00:10:41.180In the head-to-head, Trump was leading Biden by three points.
00:10:47.640Three is close, but it was a solid lead.
00:10:50.100With RFK on the ballot and Stein on the ballot, with everyone we threw on that ballot, that race got cut – that lead got cut to just about one point.
00:10:59.980That's a much, much closer – it's well within the sampling era, and it's a toss-up at that point.
00:11:38.540The issues that Democrats don't side with RFK on are big issues, Jack.
00:11:45.020I mean, what did the media attack him over?
00:11:48.080They attacked him over vaccines, some of the things he said on vaccines, masks, lockdowns in general.
00:11:54.880I mean, there are some pretty big, I want to say, litmus test kind of issues for the left at this point that he failed.
00:12:02.600And now he and then some that he when he when he decided to run for president, he he didn't fail on them initially.
00:12:09.080But trying to appeal to some people on the right, he moderated his prior position on these things.
00:12:15.640And now that makes him unpalatable to the left.
00:12:18.200So in Minnesota, that was one state that has now consistently shown that he hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump.
00:12:26.660So in Minnesota, it was very basically an even race by two point lead or one point lead with RFK on the ballot.
00:12:34.980But without him, Biden's lead widened a little bit.
00:12:38.360But in the other battleground states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and we're going to do Wisconsin real soon again.
00:12:44.340There was no doubt in our mind that that RFK hurt Trump.
00:12:48.200So with that being the case with RFK hurting Trump, this is maybe why you've already seen Trump's MAGA PAC, MAGA Inc., and others coming out and really highlighting some of these stances, these far left stances that RFK has held on issues that are very important to Republican voters.
00:13:09.660Issues like gun rights, issues like gun rights, issues like the climate, these are super, super rock bottom issues.
00:13:18.940Yeah, abortion, of course, for conservative voters and somewhere, something where I don't know necessarily, and even his past praise of Hillary Clinton.
00:13:28.460So it's something where I think to your point, they're going to have to work on his favorables when it comes to when it comes to this, because here's here's something interesting, though.
00:13:37.280And RFK, he goes home with Glenn Beck earlier in the week and should have pulled the clip.
00:13:42.360And he says, you know, they ask him about guns and he says, Glenn, a gun killed my father and a gun killed my uncle.
00:13:51.780And I'm like, excuse me, a gun did that?
00:15:28.880But that being said, the very first round of shaming that they pulled on him was outspoken against that, too, because I would say this to you folks listening.
00:15:39.800If the ruling class is willing to bury literally their own family to be to maintain their good standing with the ruling class, because that's what the Kennedy family is doing.
00:15:52.020They're attacking their own in order to make sure they're still invited to tea and crumpets on Fridays in the usual shindigs.
00:16:01.960What loyalty would they ever have to you as the voter?
00:16:05.420And if they're willing to kick their own family member out, you know, into the street out, I mean, because he's what's going to happen after his bid fails.
00:16:15.180If they're willing to do that to one of their own, one of their own members of their own family in order to keep good standing with the ruling class, what are they going to do to you?
00:16:26.440Their word means nothing, nothing at all.
00:16:30.860It's absolutely it's sad to watch because, you know, there's a few things in this in this life you should care about, Jack, more than anything.
00:16:38.960You know, there's in my my instance, you know, obviously it's the creator, it's family to not be able to count on either of those is just a sad existence.
00:16:51.060And and this is something where, again, these are bedrock conservative issues and I get it right.
00:16:57.960That's what I've said before that a great spot for RFK might be give him a role or give it say have Trump come out and say, I'll put him I'll put him on the campaign.
00:17:08.180I'll put him or put him on the cabinet and say health and human services is the most obvious one and just turn him loose again.
00:17:17.000I mean, what the the Democrat Senate's not going to vote for a Kennedy.
00:17:19.920Right. That would put them or, you know, the Democrat senators, I think that the I do actually think that the Republicans were more likely to pick up the Senate this time around.
00:17:30.320But, yeah, that is the easiest target.
00:17:32.060And and I think that actually, funny enough, you might end up getting more trouble from the Republican senators now that I think about it to confirm an RFK than you would from the Democrat senators.
00:17:43.520Yeah, you probably would because of his positions on those issues.
00:17:48.480And I do have to say this. I don't even know if the guy remembers, but it was many, many years ago, back when I was basically the data journalism editor of a site.
00:17:58.700There was a situation within it was an environmental issue in this place out by Long Island, basically in New York.
00:18:05.460And, yeah, I mean, there's just so much I don't think the Republican voter knows yet about some of his positions on environmental issues that would scare death.
00:18:14.600And that's what they need to work on. Be right back. Quick break here.
00:18:17.340Rich Barrett's doing just a full hour.
00:18:18.680The hidden tales of the communist history.
00:18:27.220I want to know the truth. What really went down?
00:18:30.640So I'm jumping on my computer or in the preorder town.
00:18:35.460All right, Jeff Rosovic back here. Live human events daily. Folks, the world is in flames.
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00:20:15.240Yeah, so, you know, you had that clip of Joe Scarborough saying, you know, it's one poll after another, showing the same thing, that the race is tightening.
00:20:23.000I mean, I think what it's showing is that Biden's getting back a little bit of some of those that were just completely fed up with him.
00:20:32.280For instance, the poll he cited was Georgia, the Fox News poll.
00:20:35.480Go back and look at the polling from 16 and 20.
00:20:37.840You're not going to see Donald Trump performing that well in that state.
00:20:41.840And then nationally as well, in several polls, he's been at or above 50, just below it.
00:20:47.840Trump has never been that high in these polls.
00:20:50.020And on average, he overperformed his polling by about two and a half, a little more than two and a half points, 2.7 and change, I believe it is,
00:20:58.800in the polling aggregates, you know, compared to the polling aggregates.
00:21:03.540So the problem, again, that Joe Biden has, and I expected him to reconsolidate some of those people.
00:22:54.080And those people are definitely favoring Donald Trump.
00:22:57.820And then couple that with the I did not vote in 2020 number.
00:23:02.760Donald Trump's campaign should focus like a laser beam on getting those people to vote because that's the difference between either a narrow loss or a narrow win and us being able to go home at 1130 at night and calling it a wrap, Jack, because it's over.
00:23:16.180You know, and we saw this and this was this was Kornacki and he goes out there and meet the press on Sunday and Chris Welker's there and she's she's got this other you would see the jaw drop.
00:23:27.800You could see the shock on the face when when it says of people who voted in 20 or 2022.
00:23:33.400This is very interesting for people who voted in 20 or 2022.
00:23:37.460And this is the general election, the national poll.
00:24:06.300It's no propensity voters that Trump is up 22.
00:24:11.120Now we're seeing this on meet the press after you heard on human events daily, you heard of people's funded inside the numbers for almost a year.
00:24:18.440You've been banging the drum on this saying that Trump is up big with no propensity voters.
00:24:26.820Walk me through how Trump's campaign can capitalize on that.
00:24:31.220Well, and before I do, let me just say real quick.
00:24:51.720So, you know, this isn't something totally novel.
00:24:54.360It's just that normally it doesn't favor Republicans.
00:24:57.820And then in 16 or 12, I should say, Obama led Mitt Romney with them.
00:25:03.100And those Mitt Romney needed to come out did not.
00:25:06.340And that's the whole thing behind Sean Trendy's The Case of the Missing White Voter and a largely centered in the Rust Belt, which was a disaster.
00:27:03.260A mandatory motor voter means that when you go to get your driver's license renewed, you have you now in the state of Pennsylvania, you now have to register to vote.
00:27:14.220So those people that we're talking about, these no propensity voters, by and large, were not registered.
00:27:20.220And so those people, so Josh Shapiro thought, oh, I'm going to be able to help the Democrats by forcing this registration up because traditionally that's what happens.
00:27:29.960However, we're finding now that the more people in Pennsylvania in 2024 go to get their driver's license renewed and are up there and saying, you know, they can't skip out.
00:27:51.140It's, it's very hard that you, it's, if you're just hitting there, if you're sitting there, you're hitting all the buttons, what state, what, you know, and people get to that, that questionnaire on the touch screen and they hit Republican.
00:28:05.240And so what the party should be doing in Pennsylvania and what the Trump campaign should be doing is find all of those people that weren't registered to vote, that didn't vote in 22 and 24.
00:28:25.180Get up in there, grill, have someone go get the Scott Presslers, get a thousand, 5,000 Scott Presslers and the young Republicans and all the rest of it and go knock on the doors, send the text messages, be there, be friendly.
00:28:40.800And you, everybody knows the drill, but that's where you're going to get the lion's share of your voters.
00:28:45.660And to your point, Rich, that's how you go from a nail biter.
00:28:49.580That's how you go from having to argue in court to going home early on November 5th with Donald J. Trump as the next president of the United States.
00:29:01.440And this is happening in state after state.
00:29:03.120And if the campaign just gets up and starts doing this, I think, I frankly think that would be far more effective than these poll workers because if you're waiting for election day anymore, the way that they shifted, the way that they shifted the election, obviously in the states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, it's, it said election day doesn't matter anymore as much.
00:29:25.840And Arizona as well, especially in a state like Pennsylvania.
00:32:14.960What I was saying before that went down is when that motor voter popped off, you said a lot in there about how to connect with these voters.
00:32:21.020But when that motor voter popped off, a lot of people on the right were having a meltdown.
00:32:25.380And I was trying to explain to them, guys like me, we have vendor agreements.
00:34:07.520Look, folks, at the end of the day, this is something that I always explain to people.
00:34:12.520You get so many times that people in these elections, especially on the pundits' side, they get wrapped around the axle on one issue or another issue.
00:34:25.100But they get so drilled down in the weeds on coming out with the perfect way to approach an issue that they miss the fact that in the American political process, it is not the quality of your votes that matters.
00:34:38.200It is the quantity of your votes that matters, the quantity.
00:34:43.260And if I can do something as a political operative, if I can do something that affects ballots at mass, on mass, and this is what the Democrats did in 2020.
00:34:54.540They changed our system of voting from a system of votes to a system of ballots.
00:35:00.000They said, we're not going to be able to beat Trump on election day so we can beat him at the ballot box by expanding the ballot box to include drop boxes, to include mailboxes, to include the jury boxes, what we see the law fair going on.
00:35:16.200So all the other boxes that they started adding into our election process, they've systematically destroyed our civic ritual, our civic ritual that was election day.
00:35:39.520Well, Donald Trump is on trial right now and couldn't hold rallies in Pennsylvania ahead of the Pennsylvania primary because he's on trial in New York City.
00:35:50.300Well, there's a great example of what could happen on election day when you need to be somewhere and all of a sudden you can't show up because, oh, now you're in court.
00:36:16.200He's not there in Scranton holding rallies and another one in Pittsburgh or Westmoreland County or just any of the counties out along the border there with Ohio, the Marcella Shale area, the fracking area, none of it.
00:37:12.920What they did was throw a wrench in her election day machine and prevented her from winning.
00:37:18.560Another 45 minutes of voting without incident would have been the end of that, would have been the end of Hobbs' margin.
00:37:25.440But Hobbs went out and gathered, and then whatever, whether it was intentional or not, Jack, that first three hours in Maricopa County voting on election day is culture.
00:38:28.840Whatever you got to do to get them to feel comfortable voting like that.
00:38:33.220Like you said, too, this is something that got glitched out before.
00:38:36.620Those people that are registering because of Motor Voter or these new voters that are Republicans, they are your absentee ballot target group.
00:42:28.460And that's where it comes in because this is the first time that we've ever had since Grover Cleveland a former president running against a current president where you've got a situation where one could come up and people can see.
00:42:58.920What do you think could come up on the big stage between now and the election that could really shake things up?
00:43:06.000Yeah, let me just say in my back in my academia days, which seems forever ago now, there used to be an expression where foreign policy cannot save you as a president, but it sure can kill you.
00:43:37.080You people are Americans are very generous and they want to help people they perceive to be the underdog.
00:43:43.120So you'll get a higher or an inflated number of support for people who say, do you want them, you know, us to help with Ukraine, stuff like that.
00:43:50.560What Republicans, Trump and everybody should be saying is they don't have an end game.
00:43:55.000The end game is U.S. boots on the ground.
00:43:57.120We are not prepared to do that because we're too we're too concerned with the average working man and woman in this country struggling.
00:44:04.760That should be the answer to that, because that is what the end.
00:44:08.600That is the only way forward in Ukraine, Jack.
00:44:15.180The war is lost everywhere behind closed doors now, including in some of the most hawkish areas of this country right now.
00:44:23.120They're making quiet conversations and plans about how to exit here because Americans, they're not sure whether they're willing to jump into this war to save that guy right there.
00:44:33.440I mean, that's what it's all about now, whether Vladimir Zelensky ends up dead or whether he ends up continuing to be the ruler of a diminished, smaller Ukraine.
00:44:42.460So that's the way Republicans need to phrase this.
00:44:45.380But there are a lot of things that could pop off between now and then.
00:44:50.100Then, of course, China would prefer Biden, so you would think they may try to hold off, weigh that against the potential risk of Trump winning, and then they can't take it.
00:45:00.660And then, of course, with this effort to try to win back some of the vote in Dearborn, Michigan, for instance, Biden's doing some reckless stuff with Israel.
00:45:09.520I mean, you send – you're trying to build that platform out there.
00:45:14.600What happens when it's destroyed because you don't want anybody defending it?
00:45:17.440I mean, this – the whole world is a powder keg right now, Jack.
00:45:48.480And Republicans are hurting themselves because, look, they have a narrow majority, and more than half of that conference is filled with posers, crooks, losers, cowards.
00:46:13.240Dave McCormick running 16 points behind Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania isn't a good enough – isn't enough of a siren going off in your head?
00:46:23.680The Fox poll, he's constantly running ahead of them in the generic ballot in the states.
00:46:28.780By the way, Fox found exactly what we found in Pennsylvania.
00:46:31.480By the way, folks, folks, for people who don't realize that Dave McCormick is a Republican running for state in Pennsylvania.
00:46:39.200So what he's saying is that Trump is consistently running ahead of every other Republican.
00:47:39.280I've actually heard some Republicans privately say if we didn't send them this money for Ukraine, if the situation deteriorated, they would have blamed us for it.
00:47:47.500And it's just so – it's asinine, Jack.
00:47:54.420It would have been – they didn't want – I said this on the show the other day.
00:47:58.680They didn't want another Kabul on their hands happening in Kiev right before the election because we know that that could have been on the mark.
00:48:05.640So this was a $60 billion campaign donation to Joe Biden.
00:48:10.000It's exactly what it was, and they bailed him out again, they being Republicans.
00:48:14.080Listen, both Fox News and us at Big Data Poll, we both found that that lead is significant over Republicans generically in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
00:48:24.560For some reason, Republicans were doing a little bit better in Michigan on a generic ballot than they were in Pennsylvania.