Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - EPISODE 721： HUMAN EVENTS PRESIDENTIAL POLLING SPECIAL

00:00:00.000 Hey folks, I want to remind you that the Turning Point Action People's Conference is coming up

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00:00:30.000 This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.

00:00:39.080 A commentator, international social media sensation and former Navy intelligence veteran.

00:00:45.700 This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.

00:00:48.660 Deliver us from evil.

00:00:50.100 President Biden is closing the gap with former President Trump.

00:00:53.940 Trump leads Biden by two points in a head-to-head matchup, 46 to 44 percent.

00:00:59.000 Biden has narrowed that deficit against Trump from five points in January.

00:01:03.980 And when third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy, are included,

00:01:07.680 Biden leads by two points, 39 to 37 percent.

00:01:11.280 According to the poll, Biden seems to benefit when, say, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are added.

00:01:16.140 He leads Trump 39 percent to 37 percent.

00:01:19.460 Conventional wisdom has been that RFK Jr. pulled supporters from Biden.

00:01:23.560 But this poll actually shows 5 percent of Trump supporters and 7 percent of Biden's break for

00:01:30.300 RFK Jr. when the field expands to include third-party candidates.

00:01:34.580 It really tells the same story that we've been hearing over the past week or two, a tightening

00:01:38.560 of the race.

00:01:39.260 All four of the states within the margin of error.

00:01:42.340 Donald Trump leads Georgia 51-45.

00:01:45.540 Michigan, 49-46.

00:01:48.560 Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, dead heats, 48-48.

00:01:55.940 It's not just that voters by a decisive margin believe Trump is the better president by 22 points.

00:02:01.120 That's a staggering number in terms of how to handle inflation, cost of living.

00:02:04.260 But on who is more competent and effective, Trump beats Biden by double digits.

00:02:08.200 On having the necessary mental and physical health, Trump nearly doubles Biden by a 21-point margin

00:02:14.980 with only a quarter of voters, one quarter.

00:02:17.980 So we're not just talking Republicans and conservatives here, but a big chunk of independents

00:02:21.240 and Democrats saying they believe that the current president has no business seeking a second term.

00:02:26.420 All right, Jack Posobiec, here we are at live human events daily.

00:02:30.860 We are in Washington, D.C.

00:02:32.500 Today is April 24th, 2024.

00:02:34.740 Anno, Dominique.

00:02:35.580 Today, President Trump is not on trial.

00:02:38.440 Wednesdays are going to be sort of a gimme day for the court.

00:02:43.400 Hopefully, that'll be enough for President Trump to be able to attend his son's high school graduation.

00:02:48.940 So today, we are going to do a polling update, human events special, polling update.

00:02:54.100 And the great Rich Barris has told us that he is willing to and gracious to be here with us for the entire hour.

00:03:01.280 Rich, how are you, man?

00:03:02.640 Living the dream as always, Jack.

00:03:04.420 How you doing, buddy?

00:03:06.100 I'm doing very well.

00:03:06.960 So it's been a minute since we've been on.

00:03:08.540 We've only got a couple of minutes in this short segment.

00:03:10.440 But before we get in, we've got a lot of these top line national polls that have come out.

00:03:16.040 But there's also a lot of swing state polls.

00:03:18.540 Let me ask you, though, what are some of the biggest headlines and trends that we can talk about and that you see going on in polling right now in the race?

00:03:25.660 Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of I told you so's to unpack in in a short segment, Jack.

00:03:32.120 But I did tell people to expect these polls to close, number one.

00:03:36.280 And number two, that RFK's position in the race is a lot more complicated or his impact on the race is a lot more complicated.

00:03:43.860 And we're still not sure what, you know, is he going to be on all of these ballots.

00:03:48.560 But even in our own polling that we just released in Pennsylvania and Michigan, it showed a tighter race.

00:03:55.260 But Joe was saying something in that last segment on Fox News that that really is consistent.

00:03:59.900 And that's been a big, big trend this whole year.

00:04:03.360 The bottom line is when you ask voters who they trust to handle issues that are all these issues at this point, and then also who was a better president.

00:04:13.380 Trump is just thumping Biden.

00:04:15.140 So while the polls are tightening because this is a divided country, the true swing voter out there, Jack, is a problem for Joe Biden.

00:04:23.080 There's no doubt.

00:04:24.900 The true swing voter is a problem for Joe Biden.

00:04:29.520 And that's the real jump ball because we've got Biden, we got Trump, and we also have for the first time, and this is something that I want to get into you, into with you throughout the episode here, is whether or not we've got another potential Ross Perot-like candidate in RFK.

00:04:47.640 Yeah, I've been telling people, even in our early polling, it was really highly suspect of how it looked like RFK was hurting Biden nationally because of the voter, the demographic profile of the voter who was voting for RFK.

00:05:05.300 And it's like for your state, for instance, I wasn't seeing a lot of educated suburbanites in Delco or Montgomery voting for RFK.

00:05:13.280 It's possible that he takes what remains of the white working class vote away from Joe Biden a little bit, but we're only seeing that in a handful of states.

00:05:23.100 So in Minnesota, it hurt Joe Biden a little bit, but in Pennsylvania, it has been clear to us, a state like that, it has been clear to us that RFK actually hurts and hurts Donald Trump.

00:05:34.840 If those voters had to choose in an A-B choice, they would go with Donald Trump.

00:05:39.180 So it does vary by state, and national polling, honestly, is an exercise.

00:05:45.040 You know, it's for fun, Jack.

00:05:46.840 It's for fun for us at this point because we don't know what states he's really going to totally appear in.

00:05:51.320 Not all of them anyway.

00:05:52.440 Some we do know, but we don't have the total picture.

00:05:55.540 Jill Stein could end up being up. 1.00

00:05:58.460 We're going to go through all this and more Rich Barras.

00:06:01.380 Quick break.

00:06:02.060 We're back.

00:06:02.640 Rich Barras here, the People's Pundit, the full hour human events polling special.

00:06:07.940 We'll be right back.

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00:08:18.500 All right.

00:08:19.480 We're back here with Rich Barris, the People's Pundit.

00:08:23.160 Rich, let's dive into it.

00:08:24.940 Let's dive into it right now because we kind of started it in the last segment.

00:08:29.240 RFK.

00:08:30.280 This guy's running.

00:08:31.900 Is he going to be another Ross Perot candidate?

00:08:34.580 If so, who does he cut more against?

00:08:36.980 Now, you and I were some of the only people in the nation last year saying, hold on a second, guys.

00:08:44.900 This guy could cut more against Trump than he does against Biden.

00:08:49.540 And people were saying, oh, no, he's a Kennedy.

00:08:52.200 They're Democrat royalty.

00:08:53.540 He's got the name.

00:08:54.540 He's got the, you know, the pedigree.

00:08:56.720 He's, you know, his father's name as well.

00:08:58.500 He's junior.

00:08:59.320 Everyone's going to remember that.

00:09:00.440 The Democrats will flock to him.

00:09:01.860 And I'm like, I think he's more well known.

00:09:04.960 And to be clear, to be clear, Joe Biden has shown that he is scared of that because he's got a Joe Biden's got a huge problem on his far left flank.

00:09:16.020 That's why he's trying to shore up his moderate flank.

00:09:20.080 That's why he's scared about RFK, because he knows that there are some people that are potentially going to be out against him.

00:09:26.380 That's why he's got the entire Kennedy family, very shameful, by the way, video that they did attacking their brother the way they have.

00:09:33.340 I mean, just to publicly go after your own brother in such a way, it's your own family, your own your own kin, your own blood.

00:09:39.120 It's just something something absolutely wrong about it.

00:09:42.040 But at the same time, Rich, let's walk through some of these polls.

00:09:44.940 NBC had a poll as well that said it's possible that more when they included RFK, that more Trump voters were going to him than Biden voters.

00:09:54.380 Now, to be sure, Biden voters went to him as well, but it was almost double the amount of Trump voters.

00:09:59.220 What are you looking at?

00:10:00.540 Well, let's look at his favorability, too, in these polls.

00:10:03.700 Look who views RFK more favorably.

00:10:06.580 Republicans do.

00:10:07.700 Democrats don't.

00:10:08.940 And he's underwater now.

00:10:10.280 Some Fox polling had some really interesting stuff on this, and so do others.

00:10:14.500 But he's now basically, as more people are getting to know him, he is now getting underwater, meaning there are more people who view him unfavorably than favorably.

00:10:23.180 We'll have to see if that trend continues.

00:10:25.260 But what is pushing that trend in the polls that are showing this are Democrats.

00:10:29.540 They're not Republicans who still view him more favorably than the Democratic Party does.

00:10:34.840 Listen, again, I really got to point it out.

00:10:37.240 Like Michigan, which we just pulled and released a couple not last week.

00:10:41.180 In the head-to-head, Trump was leading Biden by three points.

00:10:46.320 I mean, it was a solid lead.

00:10:47.640 Three is close, but it was a solid lead.

00:10:50.100 With RFK on the ballot and Stein on the ballot, with everyone we threw on that ballot, that race got cut – that lead got cut to just about one point.

00:10:59.980 That's a much, much closer – it's well within the sampling era, and it's a toss-up at that point.

00:11:06.360 Why is this?

00:11:07.460 Well, first of all, RFK is getting on the ballot in Michigan.

00:11:10.040 He's going to be the natural law party candidate.

00:11:12.240 So that may be a problem for him, though.

00:11:15.020 And as far as branding goes, the natural law party in that state has not performed very well.

00:11:20.520 I think it was De La Fuente or something.

00:11:21.940 It was the last one.

00:11:23.300 Did abysmal.

00:11:24.080 They have some pretty strange positions.

00:11:26.700 I mean, just positions that some Republicans might believe in and then positions some Democrats might believe in.

00:11:34.300 But they sat down with him and they decided he's good for us.

00:11:37.680 We're going to go with him.

00:11:38.540 The issues that Democrats don't side with RFK on are big issues, Jack.

00:11:45.020 I mean, what did the media attack him over?

00:11:48.080 They attacked him over vaccines, some of the things he said on vaccines, masks, lockdowns in general.

00:11:54.880 I mean, there are some pretty big, I want to say, litmus test kind of issues for the left at this point that he failed.

00:12:02.600 And now he and then some that he when he when he decided to run for president, he he didn't fail on them initially.

00:12:09.080 But trying to appeal to some people on the right, he moderated his prior position on these things.

00:12:15.640 And now that makes him unpalatable to the left.

00:12:18.200 So in Minnesota, that was one state that has now consistently shown that he hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump.

00:12:26.660 So in Minnesota, it was very basically an even race by two point lead or one point lead with RFK on the ballot.

00:12:34.980 But without him, Biden's lead widened a little bit.

00:12:38.360 But in the other battleground states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and we're going to do Wisconsin real soon again.

00:12:44.340 There was no doubt in our mind that that RFK hurt Trump.

00:12:48.200 So with that being the case with RFK hurting Trump, this is maybe why you've already seen Trump's MAGA PAC, MAGA Inc., and others coming out and really highlighting some of these stances, these far left stances that RFK has held on issues that are very important to Republican voters.

00:13:09.660 Issues like gun rights, issues like gun rights, issues like the climate, these are super, super rock bottom issues.

00:13:18.940 Yeah, abortion, of course, for conservative voters and somewhere, something where I don't know necessarily, and even his past praise of Hillary Clinton.

00:13:28.460 So it's something where I think to your point, they're going to have to work on his favorables when it comes to when it comes to this, because here's here's something interesting, though.

00:13:37.280 And RFK, he goes home with Glenn Beck earlier in the week and should have pulled the clip.

00:13:42.360 And he says, you know, they ask him about guns and he says, Glenn, a gun killed my father and a gun killed my uncle.

00:13:51.780 And I'm like, excuse me, a gun did that?

00:13:57.240 A gun did that?

00:13:58.680 That's what you're going to use the most far leftist.

00:14:01.620 And that's not some old comment, Rich.

00:14:03.640 That's a current.

00:14:05.040 You just said that.

00:14:06.640 And to bring up his, I mean, everybody knows, right?

00:14:10.320 The curse of the Kennedys and the closest tragedies, the most high profile tragedies in probably in American politics.

00:14:17.360 And since, you know, since Lincoln or McKinley, but, you know, in modern politics, certainly no question.

00:14:24.640 But to bring that up as a way to say a gun did that, I mean, it's it's it's shameful.

00:14:30.520 I've seen Yoko Ono said something similar once when she said that that her husband, I remember this.

00:14:37.400 She said her husband was the victim of New York street violence from a gun.

00:14:40.700 I'm like, excuse me, the guy wasn't even from New York.

00:14:43.860 This was a completely separate situation.

00:14:47.000 And the idea that you would use something like that, as horrific as it was, and to be clear, of course it was.

00:14:52.260 But to use that in a kind of partisan political debate, it's what can I say?

00:14:56.540 It's just as shameful as I thought his family was for coming out against him.

00:15:00.620 And let me say on that, too.

00:15:02.100 Well, first, let me preface it with the state killed your uncle.

00:15:06.400 Sirhan Sirhan killed your father. 0.64

00:15:08.240 All right.

00:15:08.600 I mean, they would have found other ways to do it, Jack.

00:15:11.220 I mean, the state wants you gone.

00:15:13.040 The state's going to you're gone.

00:15:14.560 All right.

00:15:15.020 I mean, it could have it could have been any number of vehicles they could have used to implement the assassination of his uncle.

00:15:20.740 I mean, poison, anything.

00:15:22.140 It's not going to get to a point where you're going to outlaw anything that's harmful to another human being in this society. 0.93

00:15:27.520 I mean, that's just ludicrous.

00:15:28.880 But that being said, the very first round of shaming that they pulled on him was outspoken against that, too, because I would say this to you folks listening.

00:15:39.800 If the ruling class is willing to bury literally their own family to be to maintain their good standing with the ruling class, because that's what the Kennedy family is doing.

00:15:52.020 They're attacking their own in order to make sure they're still invited to tea and crumpets on Fridays in the usual shindigs. 0.98

00:16:01.960 What loyalty would they ever have to you as the voter?

00:16:05.240 All right.

00:16:05.420 And if they're willing to kick their own family member out, you know, into the street out, I mean, because he's what's going to happen after his bid fails.

00:16:13.620 Where is he going to go now, Jack?

00:16:15.180 If they're willing to do that to one of their own, one of their own members of their own family in order to keep good standing with the ruling class, what are they going to do to you?

00:16:26.440 Their word means nothing, nothing at all.

00:16:30.020 It's horrible.

00:16:30.860 It's absolutely it's sad to watch because, you know, there's a few things in this in this life you should care about, Jack, more than anything.

00:16:38.960 You know, there's in my my instance, you know, obviously it's the creator, it's family to not be able to count on either of those is just a sad existence.

00:16:51.060 And and this is something where, again, these are bedrock conservative issues and I get it right.

00:16:57.960 That's what I've said before that a great spot for RFK might be give him a role or give it say have Trump come out and say, I'll put him I'll put him on the campaign.

00:17:08.180 I'll put him or put him on the cabinet and say health and human services is the most obvious one and just turn him loose again.

00:17:17.000 I mean, what the the Democrat Senate's not going to vote for a Kennedy. 0.87

00:17:19.920 Right. That would put them or, you know, the Democrat senators, I think that the I do actually think that the Republicans were more likely to pick up the Senate this time around.

00:17:28.500 Easiest target about that later.

00:17:30.320 But, yeah, that is the easiest target.

00:17:32.060 And and I think that actually, funny enough, you might end up getting more trouble from the Republican senators now that I think about it to confirm an RFK than you would from the Democrat senators.

00:17:43.520 Yeah, you probably would because of his positions on those issues.

00:17:48.480 And I do have to say this. I don't even know if the guy remembers, but it was many, many years ago, back when I was basically the data journalism editor of a site.

00:17:58.700 There was a situation within it was an environmental issue in this place out by Long Island, basically in New York.

00:18:05.460 And, yeah, I mean, there's just so much I don't think the Republican voter knows yet about some of his positions on environmental issues that would scare death.

00:18:14.600 And that's what they need to work on. Be right back. Quick break here.

00:18:17.340 Rich Barrett's doing just a full hour.

00:18:18.680 The hidden tales of the communist history.

00:18:27.220 I want to know the truth. What really went down?

00:18:30.640 So I'm jumping on my computer or in the preorder town.

00:18:35.460 All right, Jeff Rosovic back here. Live human events daily. Folks, the world is in flames.

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00:19:50.040 Rich Barris, now we're going into some of the states here, and I'm looking in swing state after swing state.

00:19:57.760 As you say, it looks as though Trump is getting, that it's tightening.

00:20:02.280 It's tightening up a little bit, but he's still outperforming Biden.

00:20:07.500 And more to the point, he's actually outperforming himself in 16 and 20.

00:20:13.400 Tell us what's going on.

00:20:15.240 Yeah, so, you know, you had that clip of Joe Scarborough saying, you know, it's one poll after another, showing the same thing, that the race is tightening.

00:20:23.000 I mean, I think what it's showing is that Biden's getting back a little bit of some of those that were just completely fed up with him.

00:20:29.000 But he's not catching Trump.

00:20:30.840 And this is the issue.

00:20:32.280 For instance, the poll he cited was Georgia, the Fox News poll.

00:20:35.480 Go back and look at the polling from 16 and 20.

00:20:37.840 You're not going to see Donald Trump performing that well in that state.

00:20:41.840 And then nationally as well, in several polls, he's been at or above 50, just below it.

00:20:47.840 Trump has never been that high in these polls.

00:20:50.020 And on average, he overperformed his polling by about two and a half, a little more than two and a half points, 2.7 and change, I believe it is,

00:20:58.800 in the polling aggregates, you know, compared to the polling aggregates.

00:21:03.540 So the problem, again, that Joe Biden has, and I expected him to reconsolidate some of those people.

00:21:10.860 There are just too many people, Jack.

00:21:12.260 When you look inside the numbers, that's why we call my show Inside the Numbers.

00:21:15.300 When you look at the two questions, one is, did you vote in 2020?

00:21:19.860 Trump smashes Biden.

00:21:21.860 It was the other way around in 2020.

00:21:24.600 And Trump beat Hillary in the 2016 question, did you vote in 2012?

00:21:29.760 So it seems like that, for obvious reasons, gives you a big boost if you can get those people out.

00:21:36.820 And then the second question that matters is, did you vote in 2020 and how did you vote?

00:21:42.140 Even in polls where we're seeing so-called tightening, what we're also seeing is at least a two-to-one exchange in Trump's favor

00:21:50.380 on who they voted and has changed their mind, or who they voted for and has changed their mind.

00:21:55.000 So what do I mean by that?

00:21:56.360 If 2% of Donald Trump's vote from 2020 says they've changed their mind and now they're voting for Biden,

00:22:03.500 at least 4% of Biden's vote says they're voting for Trump.

00:22:07.360 And most of the time, it's actually a lot more than that.

00:22:10.140 The New York Times and I were basically identical in that latest New York Times poll that came out.

00:22:15.540 The one before that, they had Trump up by like four or something.

00:22:19.080 They were 10 to 1. 0.64

00:22:20.740 And I thought that was a little ridiculous.

00:22:22.860 You know, 10% of Biden's vote was going to Trump and only 1% less than 1% of Trump's vote was going to Biden. 0.81

00:22:28.880 I thought that was a little bit crazy.

00:22:30.420 We're usually somewhere in the realm of 2, 3 to 1.

00:22:34.140 So if 2% of Trump's vote says they're voting for Biden, it's 6%, 8% of Biden's vote that say they're now going for Trump.

00:22:43.640 Why does that matter?

00:22:44.960 Those are people who changed their mind.

00:22:47.040 There aren't very many of them in this country, relatively speaking.

00:22:50.660 There just aren't.

00:22:51.920 And that is a true swing voter.

00:22:54.080 And those people are definitely favoring Donald Trump.

00:22:57.820 And then couple that with the I did not vote in 2020 number.

00:23:02.760 Donald Trump's campaign should focus like a laser beam on getting those people to vote because that's the difference between either a narrow loss or a narrow win and us being able to go home at 1130 at night and calling it a wrap, Jack, because it's over.

00:23:16.180 You know, and we saw this and this was this was Kornacki and he goes out there and meet the press on Sunday and Chris Welker's there and she's she's got this other you would see the jaw drop.

00:23:27.800 You could see the shock on the face when when it says of people who voted in 20 or 2022.

00:23:33.400 This is very interesting for people who voted in 20 or 2022.

00:23:37.460 And this is the general election, the national poll.

00:23:40.100 Biden is plus nine.

00:23:42.560 However, comma, when you poll people who did not vote in 22 or voted in 2020, they refused to vote, didn't vote in either 20 or 22.

00:23:52.940 All right.

00:23:53.400 This is a very interesting swath of voters here.

00:23:56.680 That's Trump plus 22.

00:24:00.060 And Rich, this is something that you and I have been talking about for weeks here.

00:24:04.480 It's not low propensity voters.

00:24:06.300 It's no propensity voters that Trump is up 22.

00:24:11.120 Now we're seeing this on meet the press after you heard on human events daily, you heard of people's funded inside the numbers for almost a year.

00:24:18.440 You've been banging the drum on this saying that Trump is up big with no propensity voters.

00:24:26.820 Walk me through how Trump's campaign can capitalize on that.

00:24:31.220 Well, and before I do, let me just say real quick.

00:24:33.580 Like in 08, it was this huge debate.

00:24:36.300 Oh, Biden can't be.

00:24:37.460 I mean, Obama can't be up that much nationally.

00:24:40.540 Those people are not coming out.

00:24:43.020 And they did.

00:24:44.660 All right.

00:24:45.040 I mean, unlikely.

00:24:46.100 The unlikely voter poll from survey from USA Today has been going on for years.

00:24:51.460 All right.

00:24:51.720 So, you know, this isn't something totally novel.

00:24:54.360 It's just that normally it doesn't favor Republicans.

00:24:57.820 And then in 16 or 12, I should say, Obama led Mitt Romney with them.

00:25:03.100 And those Mitt Romney needed to come out did not.

00:25:06.340 And that's the whole thing behind Sean Trendy's The Case of the Missing White Voter and a largely centered in the Rust Belt, which was a disaster.

00:25:13.640 And Mitt Romney went down in flames.

00:25:14.900 We all know the story.

00:25:15.740 But in 16, that vote was going for Trump and it organically came out for him over Hillary Clinton.

00:25:22.920 Let me just say.

00:25:23.560 And by the way, in 20, that vote was going for Biden and people argued it wouldn't come out.

00:25:29.500 It did. 1.00

00:25:30.080 So, you know, to dismiss this is just stupid. 0.99

00:25:32.780 I would say, how can he capitalize on this? 0.98

00:25:35.180 I mean, it's a lot more than a segment, you know, could could wrap up because there's a lot of technical stuff here.

00:25:39.960 We've been researching these people for like a year, Jack.

00:25:42.800 We know what could motivate them, why they're not motivated in the past.

00:25:46.600 We know a lot about these people.

00:25:48.160 And I would say this.

00:25:49.340 The Trump campaign just announced with the RNC this huge effort to observe the polls going into 2024.

00:25:57.660 I would say this.

00:25:59.040 Teach those people how to observe.

00:26:00.900 Teach those people what their role is on election night.

00:26:03.080 But you do not want to let it get to the point where election night is your last line of defense.

00:26:07.200 If you really can recruit that many people, there is a very easy way for that number of people to expose.

00:26:14.760 I would call it a force multiplier.

00:26:18.800 All right.

00:26:19.060 Those people know whether it's their inner circle at work, friends, their neighbors, they shoot the you know what with.

00:26:26.280 Believe me, you know, five of these people, you and I sitting here today, know three to five easy that you can get to go out.

00:26:33.540 And that's what needs to be done, Jack.

00:26:35.700 And it's got it's more sophisticated, but it can be done.

00:26:39.160 Let me tell you something else.

00:26:40.100 This is something that I think a lot of people haven't picked up on that.

00:26:43.840 There's reports out of Pennsylvania that Republicans now have the polling or the registration advantage in 67 out of 67 counties.

00:26:51.220 I can tell you.

00:26:52.340 I can tell you why this is happening.

00:26:54.040 This is happening because Josh Shapiro, the governor there, passed what at the beginning of this year?

00:27:01.500 Mandatory motor voter.

00:27:03.260 A mandatory motor voter means that when you go to get your driver's license renewed, you have you now in the state of Pennsylvania, you now have to register to vote.

00:27:14.220 So those people that we're talking about, these no propensity voters, by and large, were not registered.

00:27:20.220 And so those people, so Josh Shapiro thought, oh, I'm going to be able to help the Democrats by forcing this registration up because traditionally that's what happens.

00:27:29.960 However, we're finding now that the more people in Pennsylvania in 2024 go to get their driver's license renewed and are up there and saying, you know, they can't skip out.

00:27:43.480 Right.

00:27:43.640 You can't skip anymore.

00:27:44.640 You have to opt out, but it's like hard to get through the system.

00:27:47.920 You can opt out, but it's hard.

00:27:50.840 Right.

00:27:51.140 It's, it's very hard that you, it's, if you're just hitting there, if you're sitting there, you're hitting all the buttons, what state, what, you know, and people get to that, that questionnaire on the touch screen and they hit Republican.

00:28:03.460 People are hitting Republican.

00:28:05.240 And so what the party should be doing in Pennsylvania and what the Trump campaign should be doing is find all of those people that weren't registered to vote, that didn't vote in 22 and 24.

00:28:18.680 And guess what?

00:28:20.020 That's your AB universe.

00:28:22.560 That is your early vote universe.

00:28:25.180 Get up in there, grill, have someone go get the Scott Presslers, get a thousand, 5,000 Scott Presslers and the young Republicans and all the rest of it and go knock on the doors, send the text messages, be there, be friendly.

00:28:40.620 Yeah.

00:28:40.800 And you, everybody knows the drill, but that's where you're going to get the lion's share of your voters.

00:28:45.660 And to your point, Rich, that's how you go from a nail biter.

00:28:49.580 That's how you go from having to argue in court to going home early on November 5th with Donald J. Trump as the next president of the United States.

00:29:00.220 It's right there.

00:29:01.440 And this is happening in state after state.

00:29:03.120 And if the campaign just gets up and starts doing this, I think, I frankly think that would be far more effective than these poll workers because if you're waiting for election day anymore, the way that they shifted, the way that they shifted the election, obviously in the states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, it's, it said election day doesn't matter anymore as much.

00:29:25.840 And Arizona as well, especially in a state like Pennsylvania.

00:29:29.200 It's amazing.

00:29:30.160 They never had an early vote culture until 2020.

00:29:33.980 We never did.

00:29:35.960 And then all of a sudden it's, you know, you're, you're seeing these like 85, 15 early vote breaks that favor Democrats.

00:29:42.760 You need a monstrous turnout to close that gap on election day.

00:29:46.740 And it's just not happening.

00:29:48.040 You said so much there, Jack, that they really need to listen to and just make a relationship, build a relationship.

00:29:53.840 It's very easy for a guy like me who has voter files, access to voter files in every state.

00:30:03.540 Oh, I think we, I think Rich is, is popping off a little bit there.

00:30:07.440 We're going to try to reconnect.

00:30:09.700 Oh, Rich, we have you back there.

00:30:11.420 Yeah, I'm here.

00:30:11.980 Okay.

00:30:12.320 I was just going to say when motor voter passed, Jack, everyone was having a meltdown on the right.

00:30:17.340 And I, people like me, it's very easy to see who those people are.

00:30:20.980 It's very easy to build profiles.

00:30:22.800 I remember this.

00:30:23.700 You were the guy.

00:30:24.560 You were the one who said, hold on guys, hold on.

00:30:27.200 Josh Shapiro may have just shot himself in the foot a little bit.

00:30:31.580 We'll be right back.

00:30:33.100 Rich Barris here walking through how we're going to win 2020.

00:30:37.640 Tells the story of secrets and a mystery.

00:30:44.100 The hidden tales of the communist history.

00:30:50.860 Preverted non-humans. 1.00

00:30:53.580 Can't wait to get my hands on that book.

00:30:56.680 Gonna dive into his pages.

00:30:59.320 Take a closer look.

00:31:00.640 All right.

00:31:07.980 Jack Posobiec back live.

00:31:09.100 Human Events Daily.

00:31:09.740 I want to tell you about today's episode.

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00:32:04.140 Rich Barris, we're having some connection issues right at the end of the last segment.

00:32:08.320 I want to get you back on reconnected here and give you a chance to recap.

00:32:13.080 Yeah, just 30 seconds real quick.

00:32:14.960 What I was saying before that went down is when that motor voter popped off, you said a lot in there about how to connect with these voters. 0.55

00:32:21.020 But when that motor voter popped off, a lot of people on the right were having a meltdown.

00:32:25.380 And I was trying to explain to them, guys like me, we have vendor agreements.

00:32:30.460 We have access to voter files.

00:32:31.740 We have machine learning models that crank out and profile these people.

00:32:35.400 It was without a doubt.

00:32:36.880 And Pennsylvania is not alone.

00:32:38.080 The vote that is on the table that needs to be gotten, that needs to be harvested, whatever you want to call it, is a Republican vote.

00:32:48.420 In my lifetime, that has never been the case, Jack.

00:32:50.720 So I knew that this would benefit Republicans.

00:32:53.700 It did in Jersey, by the way.

00:32:55.440 A couple years ago, New Jersey did something similar.

00:32:58.520 The profiles of voters that are sitting out elections, that are sitting home, that are quitting on the process, are Republican voters.

00:33:07.020 Some of that is how things have gone in recent years.

00:33:10.200 Others is because of the shift and realignments in demographics.

00:33:14.740 Democrats are just benefiting from those high-interest, educated voters or highly credentialed professionals.

00:33:20.900 And Republicans have to go out and get the normal average American.

00:33:25.020 And that's a much more difficult task.

00:33:26.700 It used to be the reverse.

00:33:27.840 But you get them out, and it goes from being a nail-biter to a solid win.

00:33:32.680 You don't have to wait with 300,000 poll workers looking at the ballots coming in without dates on them, Jack.

00:33:39.440 Well, no, because the numbers are so great.

00:33:42.800 There won't be enough of them.

00:33:44.320 You understand what I'm saying?

00:33:45.780 People have this fallacy in their mind that Democrats can just somehow keep stuffing ballots through the box.

00:33:52.080 There is a finite number of them.

00:33:54.460 Go out and do your job.

00:33:55.600 Get those people to vote.

00:33:56.680 Get them recorded.

00:33:57.540 Get them to the polls.

00:33:58.700 Get their vote tallied.

00:33:59.900 And there isn't enough to stop them.

00:34:01.760 There isn't enough.

00:34:03.440 They have the numbers.

00:34:04.640 They're there.

00:34:07.520 Look, folks, at the end of the day, this is something that I always explain to people.

00:34:12.520 You get so many times that people in these elections, especially on the pundits' side, they get wrapped around the axle on one issue or another issue.

00:34:22.940 And to be sure, issues matter.

00:34:24.140 I'm not saying issues don't matter.

00:34:25.100 But they get so drilled down in the weeds on coming out with the perfect way to approach an issue that they miss the fact that in the American political process, it is not the quality of your votes that matters.

00:34:38.200 It is the quantity of your votes that matters, the quantity.

00:34:43.260 And if I can do something as a political operative, if I can do something that affects ballots at mass, on mass, and this is what the Democrats did in 2020.

00:34:54.540 They changed our system of voting from a system of votes to a system of ballots.

00:35:00.000 They said, we're not going to be able to beat Trump on election day so we can beat him at the ballot box by expanding the ballot box to include drop boxes, to include mailboxes, to include the jury boxes, what we see the law fair going on.

00:35:16.200 So all the other boxes that they started adding into our election process, they've systematically destroyed our civic ritual, our civic ritual that was election day.

00:35:27.900 That's gone right now.

00:35:29.500 And by the way, another thing I would say, Rich, real quick on that is, and I know Trump's got his true social post up.

00:35:35.960 That was a good post.

00:35:36.760 People need to make a plan.

00:35:37.760 I appreciate that.

00:35:38.800 I'll give you an example.

00:35:39.520 Well, Donald Trump is on trial right now and couldn't hold rallies in Pennsylvania ahead of the Pennsylvania primary because he's on trial in New York City.

00:35:50.300 Well, there's a great example of what could happen on election day when you need to be somewhere and all of a sudden you can't show up because, oh, now you're in court.

00:36:02.060 Oh, now you got something.

00:36:03.300 So even Donald Trump himself had to miss the Pennsylvania primary, and I'm sure there's going to be a few more that he's going to miss.

00:36:10.200 Talk about a key state, the keystone state that he had to miss, and he's not there.

00:36:14.840 He's not barnstorming.

00:36:16.200 He's not there in Scranton holding rallies and another one in Pittsburgh or Westmoreland County or just any of the counties out along the border there with Ohio, the Marcella Shale area, the fracking area, none of it.

00:36:32.920 None of it.

00:36:33.940 Sorry, Beaver.

00:36:35.100 Perfect at Beaver County.

00:36:36.320 Thank you.

00:36:37.000 The reason being, this is why he himself has a perfect example of why you should vote early.

00:36:45.460 Simple as that.

00:36:46.940 Yeah, I don't know if 20 didn't convince Republicans, and I still believe me.

00:36:52.060 We get it.

00:36:52.540 We talk to these people every day.

00:36:53.880 It's unbelievable that so many still haven't caught what you said before.

00:36:57.180 They changed it from a system of voting because votes are earned by persuasion.

00:37:03.160 That's not what this game is about anymore.

00:37:05.360 Carrie Lake in 22. 1.00

00:37:06.640 If you didn't learn from 20, you should have learned from 22.

00:37:09.160 Carrie Lake won the game of persuasion. 1.00

00:37:11.460 It wasn't even close.

00:37:12.920 What they did was throw a wrench in her election day machine and prevented her from winning. 0.81

00:37:18.560 Another 45 minutes of voting without incident would have been the end of that, would have been the end of Hobbs' margin.

00:37:25.440 But Hobbs went out and gathered, and then whatever, whether it was intentional or not, Jack, that first three hours in Maricopa County voting on election day is culture.

00:37:35.980 It's culture.

00:37:37.000 It's critical.

00:37:37.740 Everybody knows about it.

00:37:39.680 It's not even like something that, you know, it's a known thing.

00:37:44.800 It's not even like something that people, you know, wouldn't have been able to engineer and put together.

00:37:49.420 If you wanted to hurt an election day margin, that's what you would do.

00:37:52.920 I mean, it's so obvious.

00:37:53.980 And if that didn't teach you that you have to vote early, then, guys, I don't know what you're waiting for.

00:37:59.760 But, you know, there is some help that you can give some of these suspicious voters, which is what we call them.

00:38:05.720 And some of the, you know, the nomenclature, some of the vocabulary that's used has got to be changed, right?

00:38:13.520 So, you know, mail-in voting term like that scares the hell out of Republicans.

00:38:19.440 There are other words that can be used.

00:38:21.380 Believe me, we've poll tested and focus grouped that are a lot easier.

00:38:24.880 They think that's something totally different going on or something.

00:38:28.100 That's fine.

00:38:28.840 Whatever you got to do to get them to feel comfortable voting like that.

00:38:33.220 Like you said, too, this is something that got glitched out before.

00:38:36.620 Those people that are registering because of Motor Voter or these new voters that are Republicans, they are your absentee ballot target group.

00:38:46.080 You need to make voting for them.

00:38:47.580 They're not afraid of absentee ballot voting as much as a regular every day or four out of four Republican voter.

00:38:53.700 They're not.

00:38:54.620 They're just, in many ways, disenfranchised.

00:38:57.920 They don't want it to be difficult and interfere with their lives.

00:39:00.540 You have to make it as easy as possible.

00:39:03.100 And the way to do that is to get them on the permanent absentee ballot list.

00:39:06.500 And then you just keep a relationship.

00:39:08.900 Keep up contact.

00:39:10.320 Make sure, excuse me, make sure they get that ballot in.

00:39:13.860 Hey, it's Rich again from so-and-so.

00:39:15.920 I just wanted to let you know the ballots went out.

00:39:18.800 You got it?

00:39:19.420 Great.

00:39:19.960 Let me just send you a reminder to make sure you get it back in.

00:39:23.120 Then you try.

00:39:23.860 It's not hard to track.

00:39:25.440 I mean, Democrats are all over this.

00:39:27.240 Republicans act like they're still in the Stone Age or something, chiseling with like a hammer. 0.99

00:39:31.880 And, you know, it's ridiculous. 0.98

00:39:33.680 They know how to chase these things down. 0.60

00:39:35.820 And two weeks later, three weeks later, they didn't get the ballot in.

00:39:38.820 Somebody goes and knocks her. 0.96

00:39:40.160 I mean, there are other ways to do it.

00:39:41.480 99% of the population has a cell phone.

00:39:44.020 Shoot them a text.

00:39:44.600 Hey, it's Rich again.

00:39:45.440 Just wanted to see how you're doing.

00:39:46.920 And I saw you didn't get your ballot in.

00:39:48.800 You know, your vote will matter this time.

00:39:50.540 Get that ballot in.

00:39:51.560 Believe me, we've run these experiments.

00:39:53.520 They work.

00:39:54.680 And that's why Republicans should be, by the way, very excited about Michael Watley.

00:39:59.960 Jack, we weren't in North Carolina for like five days.

00:40:04.100 And they contacted us immediately.

00:40:06.060 Hey, you're a Republican voter from Florida.

00:40:08.320 Don't forget to sign up.

00:40:09.700 You know, because you have to register as something in Florida to vote in a primary.

00:40:13.800 And sure as hell enough, they were all over that, Jack.

00:40:17.180 I mean, so.

00:40:18.020 So you got a message.

00:40:19.280 And this is Michael Watley coming in as the new RNC chair, along with co-chair Laura Trump.

00:40:24.360 But you're saying that when he was the North Carolina chair, that you as a new mover were targeted almost immediately.

00:40:32.800 Five days.

00:40:33.280 Five days with moving in.

00:40:34.460 And you had.

00:40:35.320 Now, I got to ask, Rich, had you registered yet?

00:40:37.160 Oh, yeah.

00:40:39.540 Oh, no.

00:40:39.920 Oh, did I register already?

00:40:41.300 No.

00:40:41.980 Prior to that.

00:40:42.840 Wow.

00:40:43.900 I did not.

00:40:45.800 Okay.

00:40:46.000 I had a 29-foot box truck sitting in my driveway for three days.

00:40:51.040 Right, right.

00:40:52.080 You know?

00:40:52.960 It's on the list.

00:40:53.940 It's on the list.

00:40:54.780 It's on the list.

00:40:55.840 Rich Barrett, hold on a second.

00:40:56.940 We'll be coming back.

00:40:57.600 Quick break.

00:40:58.060 All right, Jack Posobiec back live.

00:41:27.340 Final segment here.

00:41:28.740 Rich Barrett, you know, we've been talking through ways that the Trump campaign can use some of these trends to their advantage.

00:41:35.620 And I certainly hope they do.

00:41:37.000 Let's zoom out a little bit, though, and talk general election, talk international, talk finance.

00:41:42.760 You know, people have said, obviously, the international situation completely deteriorating.

00:41:46.360 Ukraine, the spending bill, just atrocious, completely atrocious, not on top.

00:41:51.640 And I've seen the polls again and again and again.

00:41:54.900 And what I see is immigration and inflation, immigration and inflation, immigration and inflation.

00:42:01.300 Foreign policy.

00:42:01.700 Even Gallup.

00:42:02.920 I looked this up.

00:42:03.820 Had foreign policy was like 3%.

00:42:06.480 Like 3% said that this was their number one issue.

00:42:10.840 But I will say this, that this is where, and this is where, you know, reading between the polls matters more.

00:42:17.120 I think that it's not that foreign policy is something that people vote on.

00:42:21.560 But I do think it affects people's perception of the president's handling of their job.

00:42:27.180 It affects their management.

00:42:28.460 And that's where it comes in because this is the first time that we've ever had since Grover Cleveland a former president running against a current president where you've got a situation where one could come up and people can see.

00:42:45.540 They can see the record of Trump.

00:42:48.020 They can remember the record of Trump.

00:42:49.320 And they can see the record of Biden, right?

00:42:51.020 Biden's not an unknown quantity.

00:42:54.120 Now he's a known quantity.

00:42:55.120 And people know it.

00:42:55.720 They don't like it.

00:42:56.840 And so, Rich, let me put it this way.

00:42:58.920 What do you think could come up on the big stage between now and the election that could really shake things up?

00:43:06.000 Yeah, let me just say in my back in my academia days, which seems forever ago now, there used to be an expression where foreign policy cannot save you as a president, but it sure can kill you.

00:43:18.400 It sure can do you.

00:43:19.300 So if you're running for reelection, George Herbert Walker Bush, a great example of that.

00:43:23.980 He thought Kuwait would save him from the economy, which people prioritized more than foreign policy.

00:43:31.520 I mean, we're at a point.

00:43:32.720 I mean, you're asking that question.

00:43:33.860 And here's what I would say to that.

00:43:37.080 You people are Americans are very generous and they want to help people they perceive to be the underdog.

00:43:43.120 So you'll get a higher or an inflated number of support for people who say, do you want them, you know, us to help with Ukraine, stuff like that.

00:43:50.560 What Republicans, Trump and everybody should be saying is they don't have an end game.

00:43:55.000 The end game is U.S. boots on the ground.

00:43:57.120 We are not prepared to do that because we're too we're too concerned with the average working man and woman in this country struggling.

00:44:04.760 That should be the answer to that, because that is what the end.

00:44:08.600 That is the only way forward in Ukraine, Jack.

00:44:11.200 They've lost the war.

00:44:12.180 I don't have to pretend with you on your show.

00:44:13.900 You know it and I know it.

00:44:15.180 The war is lost everywhere behind closed doors now, including in some of the most hawkish areas of this country right now.

00:44:23.120 They're making quiet conversations and plans about how to exit here because Americans, they're not sure whether they're willing to jump into this war to save that guy right there.

00:44:33.440 I mean, that's what it's all about now, whether Vladimir Zelensky ends up dead or whether he ends up continuing to be the ruler of a diminished, smaller Ukraine.

00:44:42.460 So that's the way Republicans need to phrase this.

00:44:45.380 But there are a lot of things that could pop off between now and then.

00:44:49.080 Taiwan, right?

00:44:50.100 Then, of course, China would prefer Biden, so you would think they may try to hold off, weigh that against the potential risk of Trump winning, and then they can't take it.

00:44:59.280 So there's that.

00:45:00.660 And then, of course, with this effort to try to win back some of the vote in Dearborn, Michigan, for instance, Biden's doing some reckless stuff with Israel.

00:45:09.520 I mean, you send – you're trying to build that platform out there.

00:45:14.600 What happens when it's destroyed because you don't want anybody defending it?

00:45:17.440 I mean, this – the whole world is a powder keg right now, Jack.

00:45:20.780 That whole region is a powder keg.

00:45:23.000 So much can happen between now and then.

00:45:25.000 And I would just say this.

00:45:26.400 My friend Patrick Basham over at Democracy Institute just sent me his data.

00:45:30.120 It just got covered and published.

00:45:31.500 But he sent me his data on how Americans viewed the $60 billion-plus Ukraine package.

00:45:37.280 And Republicans are pissed.

00:45:39.420 They're really angry.

00:45:40.320 Mike Johnson is becoming a liability here if he's going to continue to govern as a speaker.

00:45:45.980 He's going to hurt Republicans. 1.00

00:45:48.480 And Republicans are hurting themselves because, look, they have a narrow majority, and more than half of that conference is filled with posers, crooks, losers, cowards. 1.00

00:45:58.020 You know it and I know it. 0.99

00:45:59.100 So it's not like he has the votes to do anything about it.

00:46:02.200 But God, by God, at least pretend that you prioritize what your base prioritizes because they continue down this path.

00:46:10.080 Maybe Donald Trump won't even be enough to save them.

00:46:12.520 I don't know.

00:46:13.240 Dave McCormick running 16 points behind Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania isn't a good enough – isn't enough of a siren going off in your head?

00:46:23.680 The Fox poll, he's constantly running ahead of them in the generic ballot in the states.

00:46:28.780 By the way, Fox found exactly what we found in Pennsylvania.

00:46:31.480 By the way, folks, folks, for people who don't realize that Dave McCormick is a Republican running for state in Pennsylvania.

00:46:39.200 So what he's saying is that Trump is consistently running ahead of every other Republican.

00:46:45.100 Way ahead of the point.

00:47:15.100 And I'll put it this way, Rich, this is really getting Biden on the defensive because – and just the last minute, I'll throw it to you.

00:47:23.020 But anything bad that happens in the world in the next seven months is automatically kind of by default, it's Joe Biden's fault.

00:47:33.140 The same way COVID kind of got blamed on Trump, isn't it? 1.00

00:47:36.860 It is, and that's a stupid thing. 0.98

00:47:39.280 I've actually heard some Republicans privately say if we didn't send them this money for Ukraine, if the situation deteriorated, they would have blamed us for it. 1.00

00:47:47.500 And it's just so – it's asinine, Jack. 0.97

00:47:49.560 No. 0.93

00:47:49.920 Congress doesn't get blamed for our policy.

00:47:51.300 No, it's the opposite.

00:47:52.200 It's the opposite.

00:47:52.920 It's the opposite.

00:47:54.420 It would have been – they didn't want – I said this on the show the other day.

00:47:58.680 They didn't want another Kabul on their hands happening in Kiev right before the election because we know that that could have been on the mark.

00:48:05.640 So this was a $60 billion campaign donation to Joe Biden.

00:48:09.620 That's right.

00:48:10.000 It's exactly what it was, and they bailed him out again, they being Republicans.

00:48:14.080 Listen, both Fox News and us at Big Data Poll, we both found that that lead is significant over Republicans generically in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

00:48:24.560 For some reason, Republicans were doing a little bit better in Michigan on a generic ballot than they were in Pennsylvania.

00:48:30.000 Same thing again with Fox News.

00:48:31.600 They found the same.

00:48:32.640 And when we ask people why that was, it's because – it's simple.

00:48:36.980 It's one thing.

00:48:37.640 The Trump voter in Michigan is simply more likely to vote Republican down-ballot to support Trump than in Pennsylvania.

00:48:45.180 They're not as, you know, loyal like that to get reinforced.

00:48:49.000 Rich, where can people follow you, brother?

00:48:50.960 Best places on Locals.

00:48:53.120 Peoplespundit.locals.com.

00:48:55.100 Thanks for having me, Jack.

00:48:56.800 Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission to lay a short.

00:49:00.540 I want to know the truth, what really went down.

00:49:03.700 So I'm jumping on my computer, going to pre-order.

00:49:07.640 Thanks for having me, Jack.

00:49:09.320 Hi.

00:49:11.200 Let's go.

00:49:18.500 Bye.

00:49:19.740 Bye.

00:49:19.860 Bye.

00:49:20.900 Bye.

00:49:22.140 Bye.

00:49:23.080 Bye.

00:49:28.260 Bye.

00:49:30.380 Bye.

00:49:32.220 Bye.

00:49:32.280 Bye.

00:49:33.280 Bye.

00:49:33.380 Bye.

00:49:33.720 Bye.

00:49:33.900 dr

00:49:35.500 Bye.

00:49:36.020 Bye.

00:49:36.560 Bye.

Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - April 24, 2024

EPISODE 721： HUMAN EVENTS PRESIDENTIAL POLLING SPECIAL

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