Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - January 08, 2023


SUNDAY SPECIAL： THE CHINA FILES - WORLD WAR TAIWAN

Topics
Taiwan Thucydides Trap blockade of Taiwan fentanyl production one country one-child policy collapse
Hosted by
Jack Posobiec
Mentioned
Hunter Biden Xi Jinping Vladimir Putin Okinawa Chen Shui-bian Jimmy Carter Meersheimer Truman Nixon Chiang Kai-shek Darren Beattie Nancy Pelosi Kim Jong-un Mir Sharma Elon Musk Joe Biden Gen Z Kissinger Mitch Tesla
EPISODE 361： THE TRUE HISTORY OF ANTIFA - PART 2 EPISODE 364： PRES. BIDEN ANNOUNCES AMERICA LAST TRADE DEAL WITH MEXICO, JOBS SENT AWAY, BORDER OPEN TO MIGRANTS

Episode Stats


Length

48 minutes

Words per minute

148.54

Word count

7,136

Sentence count

589

Harmful content

Misogyny

5

sentences flagged

Toxicity

8

sentences flagged

Hate speech

39

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of The China Files, we discuss the history of the Chinese Communist Party, the rise and fall of the Mao Zedong regime, and the rise of the current Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. We also discuss the recent trip to Taiwan by John Meersheimer, and what it means for China's relations with Taiwan.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Well, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard for another special edition of Human Events
00:00:16.600 Daily, The China Files, Part 5, World War, Taiwan.
00:00:23.720 And I just wanted to say thank you to everybody for the incredible reaction we've had, The
00:00:29.200 China Files, Part 1 to 4, which really covered the birth, the growth, and the takeover of
00:00:35.840 China by the CCP, the rule of the CCP, how the CCP has governed and evolved over the
00:00:42.620 years.
00:00:43.160 And then finally, the backstory of Xi Jinping.
00:00:45.480 We got so many comments, so many questions, so many great reviews on the whole thing.
00:00:52.440 And then a lot of people just saying, you've got to go more in depth.
00:00:56.080 We want more of these.
00:00:57.220 We want a lot more.
00:00:58.220 They appreciate the history, storytelling part of it.
00:01:02.580 Because I think a lot of places, especially when you're in school, you have to memorize
00:01:06.880 dates, and you have to memorize names, and you have to memorize some of the things.
00:01:11.180 But nobody just sits down and tells you the story.
00:01:13.600 Nobody sits down and explains it to you in a narrative form.
00:01:16.540 And that's what I try to do when I do these.
00:01:18.580 And obviously, when we're doing the regular show, it's news of the day.
00:01:22.720 It's, hey, this thing just happened.
00:01:25.200 We've got information on it.
00:01:26.400 Or I've got a source that's telling me something, some hot lead, some hot scoop, or something
00:01:31.180 just happened in the world.
00:01:32.180 And we're breaking it down in terms of analysis.
00:01:34.280 But we don't always take the time to sit back and just give you all this background information
00:01:41.720 and tell these stories.
00:01:43.280 So many of them, like pretty much anything to do with communism, is completely absent
00:01:50.100 from the mainstream of pop history or school history, high school.
00:01:56.660 You go to college.
00:01:58.020 The only hit, if you go for any communist story on communism, your professors are all
00:02:03.340 going to be pro-communist.
00:02:04.300 So you're not going to get any information about, say, the Spanish Civil War or the Chinese
00:02:10.160 Communist Revolution, the Cultural Revolution, the Khmer Rouge, these things.
00:02:14.340 You've got to seek them out on your own.
00:02:15.900 So something that I'm trying to do, and I saw there were a few people that said, said,
00:02:19.580 hey, you know, this is the same stuff that I read in a book.
00:02:22.720 And they said, that's great.
00:02:23.840 That's great.
00:02:24.240 There's so many good books on this.
00:02:25.740 But what I'm trying to do is give this to an audience, present these stories to an audience
00:02:31.640 that's never heard about this stuff whatsoever before.
00:02:35.900 Maybe we'll do some other episodes where we go more in depth and we go much deeper.
00:02:40.060 And some people were saying they wanted me to go deeper in on the triads and the Green
00:02:44.840 Gang and some of the work that Chairman Mao, the deals that he made with various entities
00:02:50.620 throughout China in order to prop up the CCP in the early days, how the CCP profited from
00:02:56.000 the opium trade until later on when the People's Republic was founded.
00:02:59.880 Mao later took all the opium dens, shut them all down, executed the opium dealers, and sent
00:03:05.600 all the addicts essentially into either prison camps or rehab centers, right?
00:03:10.120 So there's so many stories.
00:03:12.180 And again, we only had a certain amount of time for each episode.
00:03:15.260 So that's why, look, folks, you know, we have to package it in a certain way and we have
00:03:18.900 to pick our time.
00:03:20.300 So I agree there's so much more of this.
00:03:22.860 But put it this way, because the reaction was so huge, so enormous, because there's clearly
00:03:30.440 an interest in this and this style of storytelling for you that we're, let's just say we're doing
00:03:38.900 more.
00:03:39.320 There's definitely going to be more.
00:03:40.860 I can't reveal exactly what it is yet, but there's going to be more.
00:03:43.640 So Taiwan, this was the big question that I think everyone has, because it seems to be 1.00
00:03:50.180 the biggest flashpoint coming forward.
00:03:52.600 This was Meersheimer's warning.
00:03:55.060 Meersheimer's warning is that the U.S. is currently involved in a hot proxy war with Russia vis-a-vis
00:04:00.840 Ukraine, right, being fought on Ukrainian territory or, you know, obviously some part of it is being
00:04:06.340 in dispute right now.
00:04:07.960 It's some of it's Ukrainians, some of it's Russians, it's going back and forth, line of
00:04:11.220 contact, et cetera.
00:04:12.000 But at the same time, the U.S. is escalating tensions and China's escalating tensions in
00:04:19.520 the South China Sea and the East China Sea, particularly when it comes to Taiwan.
00:04:25.480 And so the question is, does this force or does this trip what has been referred to as
00:04:32.100 the Thucydides trap?
00:04:33.720 And this idea that every time there is a rising power and a current power that's in
00:04:39.240 decline, that those two will go into war and that they will pick and doesn't necessarily
00:04:44.480 in for the Thucydides situation doesn't necessarily matter what the flashpoint is, just that the
00:04:52.820 two sides will at some point go to war.
00:04:55.560 And this is something this is a pattern that we've seen go go on again and again throughout
00:05:01.240 history and will the U.S. fall into it?
00:05:05.120 We don't know.
00:05:06.040 I personally hope not.
00:05:07.200 I don't want the U.S. to go to war with China.
00:05:09.360 I don't want there to be a war in Ukraine.
00:05:12.480 I don't want there to be a war on the Korean peninsula.
00:05:14.880 And I certainly don't want there to be a war in Taiwan.
00:05:18.160 But the question before us is not, should it happen?
00:05:22.520 The question before us is, will it happen?
00:05:25.140 And if so, what will that look like?
00:05:27.680 So to understand that, you have to understand what Taiwan is and what the country is.
00:05:31.240 The current status quo of Taiwan is.
00:05:32.760 Let's start there.
00:05:35.060 And back in 1949, and we told this back in episode one, part one of the China Files, the
00:05:43.660 nationalists on mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, they fled to Taiwan.
00:05:49.440 They brought money.
00:05:50.260 They brought artwork and cultural artifacts.
00:05:53.540 They brought gold with them, everything they could from the treasury they could take with
00:05:58.300 them.
00:05:58.560 And they fled to the fortress island of Taiwan.
00:06:01.940 But Portuguese called it Formosa.
00:06:04.660 And the People's Republic, the People's Liberation Army, the Red Army at the time, and Chairman Mao
00:06:10.940 wanted to go in and launch the invasion right then.
00:06:14.920 And they almost did.
00:06:15.920 However, something else was going on in 1950.
00:06:19.800 And that was a little thing called the Korean War.
00:06:22.960 So the nationalists have fled to Taiwan.
00:06:25.820 They're building up the island.
00:06:27.400 They've got all their armaments there.
00:06:29.120 They've got everything they can.
00:06:30.720 The Red Army is hot on their tails, is about to invade, looking to invade.
00:06:33.820 But the Korean War kicks off and then the U.S. gets involved immediately.
00:06:38.920 And the Soviets do not want that land ramp directly into their eastern flank.
00:06:46.280 They don't want that land ramp into the Soviet Union for the Americans.
00:06:49.740 And that would obviously open them up to Manchuria, to China, et cetera, et cetera.
00:06:54.360 So they go and pull the chain with the CCP.
00:06:57.160 They yank Chairman Mao back by his collar and say, the Red Army needs to forget about Taiwan
00:07:04.120 because we've got bigger fish to fry right now and you need to go fight the Americans in Korea.
00:07:10.040 And China does. 0.80
00:07:11.560 Mao does.
00:07:12.660 In fact, Chairman Mao's oldest son, at least the only one that we know of, dies in the Korean War.
00:07:21.520 So if that son had lived, there may very well have been a Mao dynasty, but we'll never know.
00:07:27.160 That being said, there are other Mao's that are out there now, but none of them which are of any real note.
00:07:32.420 And there's some that have, you know, kind of perfunctory positions within the party, but there's no real power there.
00:07:39.340 So.
00:07:41.840 The state of North Korea, as we all know, the 30th parallel gets and the DMZ get instituted because at that one point,
00:07:48.820 MacArthur's got the Koreans, the North Koreans and the communists all the way up to the border, the Yellow River. 0.86
00:07:53.980 And MacArthur, as famously is told, says, we need to go all the way to Beijing.
00:08:00.740 We need to start nuking Beijing and Shanghai if they get involved.
00:08:04.080 We need to take this fight to the heart of the communists.
00:08:08.420 Truman says, no, publicly fires MacArthur after MacArthur publicly comes out against Truman, says it's a breach of the chain of command.
00:08:15.380 And we all know the story, but the point is that Taiwan and the nationalists and the nationalist government are sitting there the whole time, fortified in the island, building it up.
00:08:27.080 And at the time, during the Korean War, Truman sent aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait to make it very clear that if China got involved in Taiwan, then that it would trigger a wider war with the United States.
00:08:41.560 And of course, the Red Army didn't have the resources to fight a two front war, not just against the Koreans, but against the United States and its allies.
00:08:50.960 Keep in mind, they had just spent expended magnificent resources, incredible resources, fighting the nationalists.
00:08:57.500 And they've got their army, but they're only one year ended and they're still fighting going on in different parts of the country.
00:09:04.100 There's warlords that they're fighting.
00:09:05.900 There's so much going on to the idea of them being able to to maintain two conflicts in essentially multiple theaters, two front war, both with with the United States.
00:09:17.160 Again, one which would require a major C component to it.
00:09:22.580 It just wasn't in the cards.
00:09:23.800 There was no way for them to take Korea and Taiwan at the same time. 0.68
00:09:28.520 So the Korean War ends, armistice assigned at the DMZ.
00:09:34.960 And for years, all the way up until the 1970s, the United States continues to recognize the Republic of China, the nationalist government of China, which is now currently situated on Taiwan, still there today, as the legitimate government of all of China.
00:09:53.800 So think of this for 30, almost 30 years.
00:09:56.440 Exactly.
00:09:57.120 29.
00:09:58.520 The People's Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party controls all of mainland China.
00:10:03.340 But the United States doesn't recognize them from the 50s to the 60s to the 70s, and then it's only with Jimmy Carter's administration.
00:10:16.120 So Nixon, of course, and Kissinger go over there.
00:10:18.020 They say, look, we can break up the communist bloc of countries on nationalist lines, and then we can start opening up to China, and we can maybe break them away from the Soviets.
00:10:31.540 Great power politics.
00:10:32.440 This idea of, if there's another great power and we get them on our side, we can use them as a bulwark against our greater foes, at that time the Soviet Union. 0.87
00:10:41.920 But they never grant, the Nixon administration never grants China full recognition.
00:10:47.860 That only comes later in 1978 with Jimmy Carter.
00:10:51.580 But here's the other piece.
00:10:54.320 What is it that China demands in response for normalized relations and for taking a stance against the USSR?
00:11:03.560 They say you must adhere to something called the One China Policy.
00:11:09.260 And what's the One China Policy? 0.80
00:11:10.580 The One China Policy means that Taiwan is part of China.
00:11:13.920 Now, it's an interesting balance because, of course, if you go to Taiwan and the Republic of China, what will they say?
00:11:23.740 They say Taiwan's part of China, and we're the legitimate government.
00:11:27.440 If you go to Beijing, what will they say?
00:11:30.460 Taiwan's part of China, and we're the legitimate government.
00:11:32.880 So the U.S. position has always kind of been this interesting fence-striding position in the middle, and that's been the status quo for all this time.
00:11:41.480 In fact, President Truman once famously said that if the United States and China should ever go to war, then Taiwan would essentially be an organic, floating, giant aircraft carrier right off the coast.
00:11:54.760 However, what the People's Republic has said is that should Taiwan ever attempt independence, full independence, to declare themselves not a rogue province and a former government that was in charge of the entire country,
00:12:15.600 should Taiwan, should Taiwan declare independence and try to start an entirely new country, rather than be the Republic of China, but call themselves the Republic of Taiwan, that that would trigger a full-on war launched by the PRC, launched by the Red Army.
00:12:35.580 They have said, that's a red line for them.
00:12:39.020 And so the status quo has stayed like this since 1978, the communique signed.
00:12:44.160 Every administration since then has held to this status quo.
00:12:48.000 But now, Xi Jinping's in power.
00:12:51.100 And Xi Jinping views Taiwan as unfinished business, the same way that Putin saw Ukraine as unfinished business.
00:12:59.340 We're not going to get into all that.
00:13:00.520 I'm just explaining the backstory.
00:13:01.580 They see Taiwan as an integral part of China and a piece of China that had been lost to them.
00:13:09.420 And they want it back.
00:13:11.120 And they view this government on Taiwan as illegitimate.
00:13:20.240 So we've walked through the U.S. policy of what a lot of people call strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan.
00:13:27.360 This idea of will the U.S. defend them, will they not, will China accept things and go along.
00:13:35.220 And of course, we covered it in multiple parts of the series, how both sides have become incredibly rich off of this.
00:13:42.040 No, no, not you, the people, but the elites and the leaders.
00:13:45.220 The Laobaixing of China and the deplorables of the United States and the rest of the West have lost their money. 1.00
00:13:56.640 They've lost their jobs.
00:13:57.520 They've lost their manufacturing.
00:13:58.660 It's all gone to China. 0.91
00:14:00.180 Almost all of it.
00:14:01.760 Germany is still trying to hang on, but without cheap Russian gas, we'll see how well their products do on the open market.
00:14:06.740 And so when it comes to the scenario, the goal has always kind of been, hey, keep things cool and we'll make a lot of money, but don't turn into one of these things because then we're not going to be able to support it.
00:14:22.480 And of course, the United States and the leaders of the United States want to keep China as the junior partner in all of this.
00:14:30.460 They don't want the People's Republic and they don't want the CCP gaining more power and challenging the United States as the top dog.
00:14:41.620 But of course, as we've seen over the past year and really the past decade, a large diminishment of U.S. power in the world.
00:14:53.020 We've seen, I mean, you have to say it what it is.
00:14:55.800 The United States lost in Afghanistan, lost.
00:15:00.080 The Taliban won. 0.62
00:15:02.420 Afghanistan has kind of a track record with that.
00:15:04.440 They call it the graveyard of empires for a reason.
00:15:09.180 Then Ukraine kicks off. 0.52
00:15:12.520 You see the U.S. Navy ships are colliding into each other, burning down on the pier.
00:15:18.720 And a general loss of U.S. power and power projection in the world writ large.
00:15:24.100 The U.S. dollar has become incredibly weakened by the misdeeds of the Federal Reserve and because of U.S. trade in general.
00:15:35.280 All of these wounds were self-inflicted.
00:15:37.500 Financial crisis, of course, also being one of them.
00:15:40.820 We're seeing the same thing now with the new coming financial crisis, the crisis of ESG, wokeism and the rest of it.
00:15:48.540 So the United States has become weaker and weaker and weaker.
00:15:51.480 Right.
00:15:54.100 I mean, while China is just becoming stronger, they've got problems of their own.
00:15:57.240 And we'll talk about that in the next segment.
00:15:59.700 But from a net perspective and a relative perspective, they're becoming stronger.
00:16:04.580 And so is it in the interest of Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan?
00:16:11.660 That's the biggest question.
00:16:13.960 And.
00:16:15.800 The real answer is the only reason that he would invade Taiwan unilaterally without a direct provocation would be if there was a challenge to his leadership.
00:16:25.920 Now, there has not been a challenge to his leadership.
00:16:27.680 And a lot of people that focus on China, that focus on this whole thing, say, oh, Xi Jinping's done.
00:16:34.120 The CCP is about done.
00:16:35.820 We've seen flare ups.
00:16:36.740 We certainly have seen flare ups.
00:16:37.960 We saw that with the people of Shanghai and the people across the cities in China protesting against the lockdowns.
00:16:45.220 But that's not the same thing as a full on Tiananmen Square style challenge to the CCP.
00:16:51.260 It's just not.
00:16:53.140 And so the question becomes what kind of provocation, what kind of scenario would kick things off?
00:16:59.760 So I just said before, and we've heard Taiwanese presidents in the past refer to this.
00:17:07.860 Chen Shui-bian was one of the first in the in the late 90s, early 2000s, talking about an independence vote, a declaration of independence of Taiwan as a sovereign nation that's separate from every other nation.
00:17:20.280 So and then applying for status at the UN, et cetera, et cetera.
00:17:27.420 The CCP has said.
00:17:29.940 That's an absolute red line, and I guarantee you the elites at Davos, which is coming up later this year, are absolutely not going to say a word about Taiwan because they're totally owned by the CCP.
00:17:43.640 And so when I was there last year, he would say it was Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, defend democracy, defend democracy, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.
00:17:51.720 I went up and down that street and you wouldn't see a single person flying a Taiwanese flag.
00:17:58.440 A single person going up there and saying.
00:18:02.820 What about Taiwan?
00:18:05.420 Not a single piece.
00:18:08.540 Which actually gives me an idea for something we could possibly do at Davos this year.
00:18:11.900 Hmm.
00:18:13.380 But.
00:18:15.740 Let's say Taiwan goes for full independence and the United States.
00:18:21.540 Mismanages the situation because, of course, under this administration, the Biden administration, what else could they do?
00:18:28.400 You're not going to see anyone pump the brakes on this.
00:18:31.420 And the United States says.
00:18:33.960 We'll back you all the way.
00:18:35.260 What you would see from Xi Jinping.
00:18:40.540 I think the most likely scenario.
00:18:42.400 So when I was in the military, you have to come up with usually two assessments of a situation, one of which is the most likely scenario.
00:18:51.700 And one of the Mitch, one of the most is the most deadly scenario.
00:18:55.080 So the ML COA and the MD COA, most likely most dangerous and course of action.
00:19:03.500 And the most likely scenario.
00:19:08.860 Taiwan goes for independence or de facto independence.
00:19:11.620 Or perhaps Taiwan joins into a regional military alliance.
00:19:17.860 Let's say the United States tries to build a NATO of East Asia the same way that we saw the NATO of Europe push into Ukraine and that tripped the red line for Vladimir Putin.
00:19:32.200 Let's say in Taiwan, a new military, regional military is brought up and suddenly this regional NATO.
00:19:50.600 Call it whatever you want.
00:19:52.360 We're just going to call it Asian NATO for this point.
00:19:55.700 It's got Australia in. 0.74
00:19:57.660 It's got New Zealand. 0.71
00:19:59.480 They've got nuclear submarines.
00:20:00.940 It's got Japan. 0.96
00:20:03.500 It's got South Korea. 0.54
00:20:06.120 And all of a sudden they start saying that they're going to start arming and forming bases on Taiwan.
00:20:12.580 Now, the U.S. already arms Taiwan.
00:20:14.800 But let's say this regional, this regional NATO, Asian NATO comes in.
00:20:23.400 Because we know this is directly targeting China.
00:20:27.300 That would be a red line.
00:20:29.120 Naval assets from those countries permanently stationed in Taiwan.
00:20:34.380 Air assets, bombers, strategic bombers, jets, drones.
00:20:40.460 China would never let it happen.
00:20:42.700 They just wouldn't.
00:20:44.680 And so they would call that a red line as well.
00:20:46.980 So the most likely scenario, in my view, would be a blockade.
00:20:55.880 China does not have an extremely powerful blue water navy.
00:21:00.480 They can't force project around the world the way the United States does with the U.S. empire.
00:21:04.640 And that's really the globalist American empire, as Darren Beatty puts it.
00:21:08.360 But what would China do?
00:21:09.740 They would effect a blockade.
00:21:11.020 They would use naval assets.
00:21:13.280 They would use submarines.
00:21:14.760 They would use every ship at their disposal.
00:21:17.860 Merchant marine, you name it.
00:21:19.320 And they have merchant marine militia, believe it or not, in China.
00:21:22.620 Some of these guys, we believe, are even special forces that are slipped into the merchant marines.
00:21:28.280 We call them little blue men. 0.53
00:21:29.240 And they have the ability to conduct sabotage operations.
00:21:36.600 So they'd run a blockade.
00:21:38.760 You would wake up one day and you would see power outages in Taiwan.
00:21:43.680 You'd see massive cyber attacks.
00:21:46.240 You'd see the banks go down.
00:21:48.120 You'd see email go down.
00:21:49.800 You'd see GPS go down all across the entire island.
00:21:53.000 And then suddenly, the People's Liberation Army Navy, the PLAN, would announce a blockade of Taiwan in order to protect it, in order to stabilize the situation from Asian NATO or from an independence vote.
00:22:11.620 And by the way, I don't need to imagine this, and you don't need to imagine this, because this happened last year.
00:22:18.260 This happened in August of 2022, when the People's Liberation Army Navy, the Chinese Navy, announced live fire drills all around the island of Taiwan, which coincided with Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, one of her sort of last hurrahs as Speaker of the House.
00:22:39.500 They conducted a naval blockade and live fire drills all around the island.
00:22:45.500 You don't think they were sending a message?
00:22:47.460 Of course, they were sending a message.
00:22:50.040 And that wasn't the first time they did it.
00:22:51.300 They did that back in the 90s as well, when Taiwan was flirting with independence and Chen Shui-bian's movement.
00:22:56.400 And so the message is simple.
00:22:58.580 We will come. 0.99
00:23:00.460 We will surround your island, and we will starve you. 0.93
00:23:04.300 We will cut you off from the rest of the world, which China has already done to a large extent, financially and economically. 0.99
00:23:11.620 You don't see anything made in Taiwan anymore, with the exception, by the way, with the one exception of semiconductors, but not your basic consumer-level products.
00:23:20.680 Other than that, no, absolutely not.
00:23:23.180 So here's the situation.
00:23:24.360 Can Taiwan survive a blockade, a prolonged blockade?
00:23:30.980 Because that Navy, Chinese Navy, Taiwan Strait is tiny, small.
00:23:36.140 They can cross that median line in minutes.
00:23:40.360 They can go right across.
00:23:41.320 And how do we respond?
00:23:44.700 How does Asian NATO respond?
00:23:47.100 Because they could blockade Taiwan, surround that entire island, all the people, without firing a single shot. 1.00
00:23:55.620 And this would then send the entire world, and particularly the Biden administration, into chaos, because they would have no clue whatsoever how to deal with it.
00:24:08.800 So in the next segment, when we come back, I'll walk through what I think is the most likely response from the Biden administration to this.
00:24:20.100 So now we've got a blockade surrounding Taiwan.
00:24:23.960 The Chinese Navy saying that anyone who attempts to cross the blockade, whether it be activists, whether it be drones, or whether it be military, will be fired upon.
00:24:36.400 The United Nations condemns it.
00:24:38.420 China says, we don't care. 0.98
00:24:39.700 The United States condemns it.
00:24:41.140 China says, we don't care. 0.98
00:24:43.940 Japan, the regional partners, they call on China to stand down.
00:24:48.120 China says, we don't care. 0.98
00:24:51.100 We want to be top dog again.
00:24:52.840 And this is our own island.
00:24:54.500 You're going to let this little rowdy bunch of separatists tell us what to do on our own island?
00:25:02.160 We don't think so.
00:25:03.440 You're going to put military bases on Chinese territory?
00:25:06.800 We don't think so.
00:25:08.260 It's not happening again.
00:25:09.440 Because, of course, China has seen those invasions in the past, obviously from Japan and World War II, but then also the opium wars going back to the 1840s.
00:25:20.520 The British Empire cracking Imperial Japan open like an egg and then demanding that military forces and colonization take place.
00:25:31.960 This happened not long ago in the Chinese mind.
00:25:36.540 And to them, this is a, and by the way, this is a similar argument that the Japanese Empire made.
00:25:43.360 They said, you're imperialists, whereas Japan's, the Imperial Japan said, no, we're kicking out the Western imperialists.
00:25:50.960 By the same token, the Chinese Communist Party is saying, no, we're kicking out Western influence.
00:25:58.300 We want only Asian influence allowed on this side of the Pacific. 1.00
00:26:02.660 This is our land.
00:26:04.020 This is our water.
00:26:06.000 This is our island.
00:26:07.400 And who are you to tell us how it should be run?
00:26:10.060 And by the way, didn't you already agree to the one China policy anyway?
00:26:13.920 So they'd have Biden over a barrel.
00:26:17.040 Absolutely.
00:26:18.360 But you've also got a sort of, shall I say, I shouldn't say Mexican standoff, but we're going to go ahead and say it.
00:26:24.680 Because of course, the US is the consumer market for the Chinese economy.
00:26:31.640 China is the manufacturers for the US economy.
00:26:36.660 So you've got a dual edge sword there.
00:26:39.040 Which side blinks first? 0.96
00:26:40.440 Is it the side that needs the consumption to continue the activity?
00:26:45.860 Or is it the side that says, we'll take the hit?
00:26:49.400 So it becomes a war of attrition in that case from the US and China's perspectives.
00:26:54.480 Just imagine.
00:26:56.060 You can't get new parts for your iPhones.
00:26:58.340 You can't get new glass.
00:27:02.080 Stores are becoming empty.
00:27:05.180 Walmart, Target.
00:27:07.520 You're starting to not be able to see things anymore.
00:27:10.440 Plastic containers.
00:27:12.400 Cups.
00:27:13.220 We saw a little of this during COVID, by the way.
00:27:15.280 Where do you think all that stuff is manufactured these days?
00:27:19.080 You want to take it another step?
00:27:21.240 How about your amoxicillin?
00:27:24.240 How about your doxycycline?
00:27:26.120 How about your insulin?
00:27:27.980 How about all the prescription drugs, the antibiotics, everything that's out there?
00:27:32.600 Now, not to go down too much of the big pharma rabbit hole, but some people would argue that
00:27:37.180 it's better if the United States has less prescription drugs.
00:27:40.000 But what about things like antibiotics and insulin that people need to stay alive?
00:27:44.140 What about cancer medication?
00:27:46.300 Where do you think all that stuff is made?
00:27:50.440 Now suddenly the United States can't get that.
00:27:53.680 And keep in mind, this is under your most likely scenario.
00:27:57.380 This is the best case scenario in a wartime situation or a, not even a war, but a conflict
00:28:05.600 that breaks out over the question of the status quo of Taiwan, the status of Taiwan.
00:28:13.660 Now, all of a sudden, your foods are going scarce.
00:28:17.220 Your stores are going scarce.
00:28:18.480 Your drugs are going scarce.
00:28:19.520 Medicines are going scarce.
00:28:21.340 You can't get this.
00:28:22.380 Why?
00:28:22.600 Because our elites decided that they could save a buck by having all of this manufactured
00:28:27.320 in China.
00:28:29.880 You know what else they would do?
00:28:31.800 You think the fentanyl problem is bad now?
00:28:34.960 They would be ramping up the fentanyl production in China.
00:28:39.940 And they would go to their cartel buddies and they would tell them, you need to step up
00:28:44.440 operations tenfold.
00:28:46.280 They would flood as much fentanyl as they could across that southern border.
00:28:51.440 And they'd be, they'd start doing it out of sheer spite.
00:28:55.860 They would do everything they can to eat away at our own country.
00:28:59.780 Right now, they're in the slow lane.
00:29:02.760 They're doing it, but they're doing it little bit by little bit.
00:29:06.500 Every year, every day.
00:29:09.640 Now, they're going to switch it over into high gear.
00:29:13.000 They're going to flood our cities with fentanyl.
00:29:14.740 Now, they're going to come for our children.
00:29:18.420 Snapchat, TikTok, they will be contacting your children on TikTok, not the CCP themselves.
00:29:28.080 But where do you think the fentanyl comes from?
00:29:29.780 Where do you think the synthetic drugs, they think they're buying ecstasy, they think they're buying crystal meth, they think they're buying oxycodone, oxycontin, Adderall.
00:29:45.620 But what are they actually taking?
00:29:47.660 What's actually in those pills?
00:29:49.500 They don't know.
00:29:50.020 They're going to ramp up all of that.
00:29:54.760 And while all this is happening, then the Biden administration is going to sit there.
00:30:02.600 And Xi Jinping is going to pick up that phone.
00:30:05.120 Maybe there's a summit.
00:30:06.920 And he's going to say to Biden, here's what you're going to agree to.
00:30:10.920 And here are the concessions we're going to take.
00:30:13.120 And they're going to say they're going to renegotiate trade deals.
00:30:18.400 They're going to renegotiate joint ventures.
00:30:20.420 By the way, any U.S. entity that does business in China has to do so through a joint venture.
00:30:27.820 So let's say you're Disney.
00:30:28.860 Let's say you're Apple.
00:30:30.100 If you want to work in China, Elon Musk, Tesla.
00:30:34.280 If you want to work in China, you have to do so through a joint venture with a local Chinese company.
00:30:40.180 That means that whatever you're doing, right, this is why Foxconn is the manufacturer for Apple.
00:30:45.740 Whatever you're doing, China's getting a cut.
00:30:49.980 China's getting cut in on the deal.
00:30:52.280 And you know what else they're going to do?
00:30:54.060 They're going to ask for a renegotiation of intellectual property laws.
00:30:57.960 They're going to ask for a renegotiation of their ability to copy U.S. products and start flooding them on the world market.
00:31:06.200 They're going to ask for a renegotiation of all of this.
00:31:08.420 Because they're going to say, we're sick of it.
00:31:11.300 And we want your industries to fail.
00:31:14.660 And we want you to crumble.
00:31:16.500 Because we don't care about your industries and your elites anymore.
00:31:20.200 Because we don't want you to be the senior partner in this relationship anymore.
00:31:23.620 We want to be the senior partner. 0.99
00:31:25.300 And so we're going to keep your people fat, dumb, and happy. 0.99
00:31:28.880 And they're going to continue buying our products. 0.97
00:31:30.960 And we want to get to the point where it's not just 90% of products in the United States are made in China.
00:31:37.020 It's going to be 100% of products sold in the United States are made in China.
00:31:43.920 All of it.
00:31:45.200 You can forget about sanctions.
00:31:46.940 You can forget about any manufacturing jobs in the United States.
00:31:49.920 You can forget about all that stuff.
00:31:51.320 Because they are going to want all of it.
00:31:54.780 And in exchange, here's the best part.
00:31:56.600 In exchange, they're never even going to let Taiwan be free. 0.88
00:32:05.360 What they're going to say is, we want Taiwan to be a similar setup that we have with Hong Kong.
00:32:13.280 What was that called?
00:32:14.000 One country, two systems.
00:32:21.500 And so they will demand that Biden go to the Taiwanese government and say, we will pull out our security guarantees.
00:32:33.080 We'll pull out our backing.
00:32:35.040 We'll pull out everything with you unless you agree to the CCP's demand of entering into this one country, two systems agreement.
00:32:43.080 So the one country, two systems agreement essentially stated that Hong Kong would retain its individual distinctiveness and its unique status as a city state.
00:33:00.000 But it would cease being a sovereign nation and it would then be incorporated into the sovereignty of China, which meant that the Red Army, People's Liberation Army, the successors of the Red Army, would be able to set up garrisons in Hong Kong.
00:33:16.960 One of the first things that they did.
00:33:18.000 The Chinese Navy would patrol Hong Kong Harbor and that it would be considered Chinese territory.
00:33:27.540 That is exactly what they would tell Taiwan to do.
00:33:31.280 Almost sounds very similar to the demands that were made by Vladimir Putin over Ukraine at the start of the whole thing.
00:33:38.700 Because what did Putin say?
00:33:41.760 The demilitarization of Ukraine.
00:33:46.620 And of course, he didn't mean a full demilitarization because of course there'll be military there.
00:33:51.600 But he only wants one military there.
00:33:53.740 The Russian military.
00:33:55.680 He doesn't want Ukraine to have a military of its own.
00:33:58.420 Or if it does, not one that would pose any threat whatsoever to him.
00:34:03.800 That would be the same thing in Taiwan.
00:34:05.320 Taiwan would have to give up its military.
00:34:09.600 All of the ships, the submarines, the sea mines that have been given and sold to them by the United States, turn around and say,
00:34:20.220 take your choice.
00:34:22.180 Either they become ours or you have to send them all back. 0.98
00:34:26.500 You have to send every one of them back.
00:34:29.620 Maybe it will provide just compensation.
00:34:32.560 But they would demand this.
00:34:35.320 And the Biden administration, because again, they're looking to save face.
00:34:42.240 They're looking to, in this scenario, they're looking to end things and then go back to the money.
00:34:47.540 And they also know, of course, that the Chinese Communist Party has got the receipts on Biden, his brother, and his son.
00:34:58.820 And everything that his son did when he was in mainland China, while he was making those deals.
00:35:06.800 You know, people ask me all the time, they say, what about the other stuff that's on the laptop?
00:35:11.160 How come we haven't gotten into that?
00:35:12.220 And I said, you understand the laptop's not the only repository on Hunter Biden.
00:35:17.100 That's the dossier he had on himself.
00:35:19.020 If the laptop is what Hunter Biden has on himself, imagine what the Chinese Communist Party has on this guy.
00:35:29.000 Imagine what the CCP has on Hunter Biden.
00:35:32.580 Imagine their tapes and their agents and their files and their recordings.
00:35:37.680 And they will use every bit of that as leverage on Joe Biden.
00:35:44.040 Kind of like what happened to a certain Ukrainian prosecutor a few years ago who lost his job in exchange for a $1 billion IMF loan.
00:35:54.840 And an investigation just magically disappeared.
00:35:57.880 Kind of the same way as the FBI's investigation that's going on now for four years into Hunter Biden doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
00:36:05.940 So that's the scenario where Biden sues for peace and gives the CCP whatever they want and gives them all of Taiwan.
00:36:17.700 Imagine you wake up one day.
00:36:19.100 President Biden is announcing to the country that the United States Navy is on its way to defend the new independence of the new island nation in the East China Sea, the Republic of Taiwan.
00:36:42.080 And the Chinese Navy has stated that they are not going to allow this.
00:36:49.100 You're essentially looking at the start of World War Three.
00:36:53.400 There's no way to sugarcoat this.
00:36:56.740 But a direct conflict between China and the United States is extremely possible with this flashpoint.
00:37:08.060 Japan would get involved.
00:37:10.100 North and South Korea would go at it.
00:37:12.960 China would certainly, Beijing would certainly pull the leash and yank the chain.
00:37:19.100 On Kim Jong-un and say, if Japan gets involved, you need to start shooting those nukes off.
00:37:25.180 You need to start getting those ballistics warmed up.
00:37:27.840 Because instead of firing those missiles over Japan, we're going to need you to start sending them into Japan, into the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.
00:37:36.380 Japanese aircraft carriers, anything that they could bring to bear, they'd want North Korea to target. 0.97
00:37:41.300 Then, of course, South Korea gets involved.
00:37:44.660 That peninsula goes up in flames.
00:37:47.240 Day one.
00:37:49.460 China knows that for force protection into the East China Sea, the United States has two key bases.
00:37:56.860 One of which is in Guam.
00:37:59.380 The other of which is in Okinawa.
00:38:01.760 Okinawa is very close to Taiwan.
00:38:04.540 If you look on the map.
00:38:07.660 On day one.
00:38:10.060 They would turn Okinawa into a fireball. 0.97
00:38:14.900 Because China wouldn't necessarily just use cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
00:38:19.280 They would just fire everything they can to overwhelm all the air defense of Okinawa.
00:38:24.700 They would target bases.
00:38:26.980 They would target all military facilities possible.
00:38:30.800 They would do everything they can.
00:38:32.340 Now, of course, Japan would respond to that by saying, you've attacked Japanese territory.
00:38:37.180 So now Japan's getting in. 0.96
00:38:40.580 Philippines would get in.
00:38:42.140 The other Southeast Asian nations would get in. 0.93
00:38:45.300 This, of course, would trigger a wider war, potentially, throughout the entire world.
00:38:54.180 Because China would then go put leverage on Russia.
00:38:56.520 And keep in mind, the United States is already, as I said before, and this is Mir Sharma's warning coming real in this scenario.
00:39:04.380 The most deadly scenario.
00:39:08.140 But the United States is already committed to fighting Russia and Ukraine. 0.67
00:39:13.180 China is now opening up a second front in Taiwan.
00:39:21.520 It makes sense.
00:39:22.780 It makes sense for China.
00:39:25.040 Because if there were ever going to be a time that they could defeat the United States in a protracted naval conflict,
00:39:31.140 it could only be while the United States was distracted by another front and another theater.
00:39:39.000 Kind of like what's going on right now.
00:39:42.520 China also has another issue on their hands.
00:39:44.700 Xi Jinping has an issue on those hands.
00:39:47.120 And that's demographics.
00:39:48.920 There's actually a demographic collapse coming in China.
00:39:51.700 They're going off a cliff.
00:39:52.520 And that cliff is called the one-child policy, which started in the late 70s and then continued throughout the 80s.
00:40:00.780 The one-child policy stated that if you had more than one kid, they had to be aborted.
00:40:05.600 They had to be given up.
00:40:07.600 Many were just thrown in the river.
00:40:10.900 Forced abortions were seen across the country.
00:40:14.120 This wasn't under Chairman Mao at all, by the way.
00:40:17.420 Chairman Mao, believe it or not, actually supported large families.
00:40:19.700 But then the Chinese government decided their population was too big.
00:40:24.600 Largest in the world.
00:40:26.040 So they instituted the one-child policy.
00:40:29.140 Forcibly.
00:40:31.220 And so, because of their social engineering experiments,
00:40:34.820 they've gotten to the point now
00:40:36.060 where they're losing their workers,
00:40:39.520 they're losing their military-age males,
00:40:42.200 they're losing...
00:40:42.820 I'm going to pull up the actual statistic here.
00:40:45.160 They will have
00:40:46.400 four retirees
00:40:50.180 for every two workers
00:40:52.020 by 2030.
00:40:55.140 And Xi Jinping knows this.
00:40:59.800 Your laborers, your consumers, your taxpayers,
00:41:02.640 gone.
00:41:05.020 We've also got another problem.
00:41:08.200 Because under the one-child policy,
00:41:10.900 all those people born in the 80s and early 90s,
00:41:16.400 that is generations.
00:41:18.120 In the U.S., we say millennials, Gen Z.
00:41:22.580 Because the Chinese people favored having a male child, 0.99
00:41:29.180 a huge amount
00:41:31.100 of females were aborted.
00:41:35.240 That means in China, 0.78
00:41:37.640 today,
00:41:38.600 you have tens of millions of more young men
00:41:42.420 than you do young women.
00:41:44.720 And what happens
00:41:46.500 with those tens of millions
00:41:47.500 of young men
00:41:48.340 can't find a job,
00:41:51.260 can't find a girlfriend,
00:41:53.080 can't find a wife,
00:41:54.280 and they're upset
00:41:55.860 and angry.
00:41:58.060 They're looking to fight.
00:42:00.240 They're ready
00:42:01.020 for a war.
00:42:04.220 So you go into
00:42:05.560 the order of battle,
00:42:07.940 the naval order of battle
00:42:09.120 for China.
00:42:09.820 the Eastern Theater Navy,
00:42:12.560 18 diesel-powered attack submarines,
00:42:14.980 13 destroyers,
00:42:16.420 23 frigates,
00:42:17.600 24 corvettes,
00:42:18.980 three amphibious transport docks,
00:42:20.680 16 tank landing ships,
00:42:23.020 five medium landing ships,
00:42:24.600 38 missile patrol craft.
00:42:26.500 They've got an aircraft carrier
00:42:27.820 that's ported out of Qingdao in the north.
00:42:30.700 They've got another aircraft carrier
00:42:32.260 that's ported out of the south. 0.50
00:42:33.540 They would bring everything to bear
00:42:37.820 in a Taiwan fight.
00:42:39.560 Everything.
00:42:41.140 Taiwan,
00:42:41.640 for their part,
00:42:42.720 in a full-scale invasion scenario,
00:42:45.200 because if the U.S. Navy is coming,
00:42:47.040 China knows their best bet, 1.00
00:42:49.140 their best bet,
00:42:50.240 is to take over Taiwan,
00:42:52.460 secure it,
00:42:53.400 and then sue for peace afterwards
00:42:55.000 without risking
00:42:56.380 a larger war breaking out
00:42:58.260 and an invasion of the mainland
00:42:59.320 or bombing of the mainland.
00:43:02.040 So what would they do?
00:43:03.520 They would trigger
00:43:04.520 an immediate invasion of Taiwan.
00:43:06.960 While all this is going on
00:43:07.980 in the background,
00:43:08.680 Okinawa is gone,
00:43:10.740 Korean Peninsula is up in flames, 0.94
00:43:13.460 Guam is being attacked,
00:43:15.100 and Guam is much,
00:43:15.740 much further out.
00:43:18.280 But they want to deny
00:43:19.360 the United States
00:43:20.160 the ability
00:43:20.780 to strike and project power
00:43:23.740 into Asia.
00:43:25.040 And of course,
00:43:27.040 the U.S. has a fleet
00:43:27.840 in Yuska in Japan.
00:43:30.680 That forward-deployed fleet
00:43:32.160 is being brought down.
00:43:33.680 That's the home port
00:43:34.120 of the 7th Fleet.
00:43:36.100 It's a fleet where I served.
00:43:38.440 It's also the fleet
00:43:39.580 that's been having issues.
00:43:42.320 Ships running into each other.
00:43:44.300 Why is this?
00:43:46.640 Because you've got
00:43:47.400 those tens of millions
00:43:48.340 of young males
00:43:49.060 in China right now
00:43:50.140 where the Chinese military
00:43:53.080 is focused on masculinity training.
00:43:55.440 They're focused
00:43:56.100 on hyper-nationalism.
00:43:57.660 What's the U.S. military
00:43:58.780 and the U.S. Navy
00:43:59.440 focused on?
00:44:01.060 How many genders 0.98
00:44:02.100 can you fit onto one ship?
00:44:04.400 Which gender are you today?
00:44:07.240 How woke are you today?
00:44:08.420 Have you taken
00:44:08.820 your woke-ified training,
00:44:10.160 your woke diversity training
00:44:11.420 for the 10th time this year?
00:44:14.340 Do you honestly think
00:44:15.800 that the United States,
00:44:17.540 as it's currently situated,
00:44:19.880 is ready to fight
00:44:20.960 an actual prolonged conflict
00:44:24.560 directly with China? 0.95
00:44:26.320 It's ridiculous. 0.78
00:44:30.260 And so Taiwan, 0.85
00:44:31.480 for their part,
00:44:32.880 once this invasion kicks off,
00:44:34.520 before the U.S. even gets there,
00:44:37.100 their most likely bet
00:44:38.080 would be to mine
00:44:39.440 the Taiwan Strait.
00:44:41.400 Just as many naval mines
00:44:43.460 as possible,
00:44:44.220 spread them out
00:44:44.840 throughout the strait
00:44:45.720 to try to deny
00:44:47.400 the area access to China.
00:44:49.020 But at best,
00:44:50.600 it's a delaying tactic.
00:44:53.120 Because China's got 0.98
00:44:54.040 enough minesweepers,
00:44:55.660 and honestly,
00:44:56.300 they can just send freight,
00:44:57.440 they can send barges,
00:44:58.640 they can send anything
00:44:59.320 they want in
00:44:59.880 to clear those waters.
00:45:01.700 Online in the Navy,
00:45:02.680 every ship can be
00:45:04.180 a minesweeper once.
00:45:05.960 It's kind of like
00:45:06.640 how any ship
00:45:07.180 can be a submarine once.
00:45:08.620 Just once, though.
00:45:10.380 But it doesn't matter,
00:45:11.760 because at the end of the day,
00:45:13.300 everyone knows
00:45:14.100 who's got the numbers.
00:45:14.920 So if the U.S. Navy
00:45:17.480 wants to project itself,
00:45:19.980 it's going to have to go long,
00:45:22.280 it's going to have to go deep
00:45:23.560 into the East China Sea,
00:45:26.400 into the littoral areas.
00:45:29.440 You're right next
00:45:30.500 to the Chinese coast
00:45:31.320 at that point,
00:45:32.340 and they can bring
00:45:32.940 everything to bear on you.
00:45:34.620 This would be
00:45:35.340 one of the most dangerous
00:45:36.440 battles
00:45:37.240 in United States Navy history.
00:45:40.120 It would dwarf anything
00:45:42.680 that we saw
00:45:43.300 with Japan.
00:45:45.560 Because with the Japanese Navy, 0.96
00:45:47.540 that was standoff fights,
00:45:49.220 but out in
00:45:49.960 Midway,
00:45:51.920 Coral Sea,
00:45:53.480 places that were far
00:45:54.440 from the mainland.
00:45:56.120 This would be a naval battle,
00:45:57.760 and it depends on
00:45:58.360 where the Chinese Navy came.
00:45:59.840 Because the Chinese Navy
00:46:00.720 doesn't have the ability
00:46:01.580 to project as far
00:46:02.320 as the Japanese Navy did.
00:46:04.400 You would see fighting
00:46:05.400 up close
00:46:06.880 and personal.
00:46:07.800 And would China
00:46:10.540 strike the U.S. mainland?
00:46:13.200 It would if they had to.
00:46:16.120 Would China take out 0.97
00:46:17.140 the GPS satellites
00:46:18.160 and wouldn't be able
00:46:18.680 to use them?
00:46:19.180 Would they destroy
00:46:19.800 the U.S. internet?
00:46:21.200 Would they do everything
00:46:22.000 in their power
00:46:22.480 to make sure that they win?
00:46:25.460 And then, of course,
00:46:27.840 would the Chinese government,
00:46:30.360 would the Chinese Communist Party
00:46:31.620 facing a collapse scenario
00:46:34.400 would they be willing
00:46:38.640 to use nuclear weapons
00:46:40.240 or allow North Korea 0.82
00:46:41.040 to use theirs?
00:46:43.640 This is Mearsheimer's warning.
00:46:47.100 This is why
00:46:48.260 the United States,
00:46:50.200 as it's currently constituted,
00:46:53.140 needs to deter
00:46:55.520 this type of action
00:46:57.160 from ever taking place.
00:46:58.960 because when you get
00:47:01.240 into a conflict
00:47:02.560 with another nuclear power,
00:47:05.760 there are no winners.
00:47:09.700 None.
00:47:11.600 You cannot allow this to happen.
00:47:14.580 You have to fix
00:47:15.680 the United States Navy.
00:47:17.080 You have to be
00:47:18.140 a serious deterrent.
00:47:20.040 But you also have to look
00:47:21.840 to de-escalate
00:47:23.780 wherever possible,
00:47:25.760 maintain the status quo
00:47:27.700 and little by little,
00:47:30.720 work to decouple
00:47:32.520 from China
00:47:33.440 to restore
00:47:34.400 America's
00:47:35.300 financial
00:47:36.200 and manufacturing base
00:47:37.820 while depriving
00:47:39.920 the Chinese Communist Party
00:47:41.340 of the market
00:47:42.400 that they need
00:47:43.460 to be able to build
00:47:44.640 their one belt,
00:47:45.360 one road.
00:47:48.920 Understand,
00:47:50.200 the stakes for this
00:47:51.240 are bigger than the stakes
00:47:53.000 of anything
00:47:53.680 that we've faced.
00:47:55.320 That's why I've spent
00:47:56.000 15 years of my life
00:47:57.120 focused on it.
00:47:59.220 Ladies and gentlemen,
00:48:00.120 as always,
00:48:00.940 you have my permission
00:48:01.640 to lay ashore.