Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - August 01, 2024


The Federal Hearing on Trump's Assassination Attempt & The Truth About Josh Shapiro


Episode Stats

Length

48 minutes

Words per Minute

178.52763

Word Count

8,735

Sentence Count

502

Misogynist Sentences

9

Hate Speech Sentences

10


Summary

Jack Posobiec is a commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran. He is a regular contributor to CNN and the New York Times, and is a frequent guest on Fox News Channel's Hard Knocks.


Transcript

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00:00:25.780 The Poso Daily Brief.
00:00:30.000 This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
00:00:40.680 A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
00:00:47.260 This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
00:00:50.320 Christ is king.
00:00:51.900 I don't think it's accidental that just four days after Harris and Biden repudiated our Israeli allies, Iran's top terrorist group, Hezbollah, fired an Iranian missile to kill 12 innocent children at a soccer field.
00:01:05.840 The terrorists did it because they assumed they could get away with it because the United States is weak and ineffective and no longer respected.
00:01:13.580 This act of terror is just another manifestation of Israelis decaying long patterns of terrorism and sabotage targeting Palestinians and other supporters and sympathizers of the Palestinian cause across the region and beyond.
00:01:30.100 Our intelligence community has made clear that we believe that the Iranians are attempting to kill or injure former high government officials.
00:01:39.580 This morning, anger from some families of 9-11 victims after word that the alleged mastermind of the 9-11 attacks and two other defendants have accepted a plea deal to avoid the death penalty.
00:01:51.060 I bring energy way down.
00:01:52.900 I bring interest rates down.
00:01:54.660 I bring inflation way down so people can buy bacon again, so people can buy a ham sandwich again, so that people can go to a restaurant and afford it.
00:02:03.740 Because right now, people can't buy food.
00:02:05.580 It's kind of classic projection, right? The very things he's talking about, virtue, strength, security, family, those are all things that Trump's Republican Party has completely abandoned making any claim to.
00:02:20.360 They long ago walked away from any serious claim on being the party of family.
00:02:25.000 I want a future where I can look the 47th president of the United States in the eye and say, hello, Madam President.
00:02:34.920 The contrast could not be more stark.
00:02:37.300 On the one hand, you have a radical left puppet candidate who is fake, fake, fake.
00:02:43.520 And on the other hand, you have a president who will fight, fight, fight for America.
00:02:49.320 All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily here live, Washington, D.C.
00:02:58.640 Today is August 1st, 2024.
00:03:01.400 Anno Domini, very honored to have on here Senator Roger Marshall, who recently had the opportunity to take part in a pretty fiery hearing at the United States Senate.
00:03:14.080 Senator, how are you today?
00:03:15.000 Jack, I'm doing great. Great to be with you. And it was a fiery hearing and glad to have this conversation with you about it.
00:03:25.160 Well, and Senator, I have to ask, you know, you really came over the top with some of these questions and the fact that the answers seem to be, and I'll just say as somebody who was watching and like many Americans, it didn't seem like the answers were very forthcoming.
00:03:39.600 How did it seem for yourself and for your staff?
00:03:41.920 Yeah, either the secret security is incompetent or they're purposely trying to deceive us.
00:03:49.040 It has to be one or the other.
00:03:51.160 And I really think the backdrop of this hearing to me is the folks back home don't trust the FBI and they have no confidence in the Secret Service.
00:04:00.900 And they sit there and say, here's two great revered agencies of the federal government in charge of law enforcement.
00:04:07.180 And if they can't do their job, is my family safe?
00:04:10.920 And then they sit there and start thinking about the open border and they think about Kamala Harris policies of defund the police, of cashless bail and on and on here.
00:04:20.100 And people are really concerned about their safety and security.
00:04:22.640 And that hearing did nothing to relieve their fears.
00:04:27.380 At least I didn't think they did.
00:04:30.760 Well, and that's something, too, because this isn't 48 hours later.
00:04:34.660 This isn't 24 hours later.
00:04:36.000 This is 17 days later.
00:04:38.040 And, Senator, yourself and your colleagues, I don't think you were asking very complicated questions.
00:04:43.100 Yeah, we weren't.
00:04:45.560 And I think some of the more simple questions are, why didn't you have somebody on top of the building where the assassination attempt occurred from?
00:04:54.700 Why wasn't there somebody there?
00:04:56.580 Why wasn't that in the inner perimeter?
00:04:59.080 So they defined their perimeter as the place where they need to beef up security.
00:05:02.240 But there were 10 buildings within 500 yards of President Trump with a direct line of sight.
00:05:08.880 Another question, did you or did you not meet with the local police that morning?
00:05:14.440 And I'm still confused if they had that meeting or not.
00:05:17.720 Another simple question is, who made the decision to not give President Trump more security?
00:05:24.220 Or what position was, if you won't name a name, at what level, who makes those type of decisions?
00:05:29.020 What is the standard operating procedure?
00:05:31.980 And all we got was obfuscation, not really telling us what is the standard operating procedure.
00:05:39.660 And again, and again, and again, we keep getting these roundabout questions and roundabout responses of, oh, it's a process.
00:05:47.760 Oh, it's a conversation.
00:05:48.780 And we never seem to get to an actual bottom line detail.
00:05:52.400 Senator, we've got a quick break, longer segment coming up here.
00:05:55.720 One second, we'll be right back, folks.
00:05:57.280 Senator Roger Marshall in the great state of Kansas.
00:05:59.540 We'll be right back.
00:06:02.060 Ladies and gentlemen, one of the best ways that you can support us here at Human Events and the work that we do is subscribing to us on our Rumble channel.
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00:06:20.520 Today, you know, they talk about influences.
00:06:23.300 These are influences.
00:06:25.160 And they're friends of mine.
00:06:27.540 Jack Prasovic.
00:06:29.080 Where's Jack?
00:06:30.000 Jack.
00:06:30.980 He's done a great job.
00:06:33.360 All right, we're back here.
00:06:36.740 Human Events Daily.
00:06:37.700 We're speaking with Senator Marshall now.
00:06:40.240 Senator, you had the opportunity to question the current head of the Secret Service, as well as the Deputy Director of the FBI.
00:06:48.200 Senator, tell me, in your part of the investigation, what specifically are you focusing on?
00:06:54.520 Because we know there is a vast confluence of things that went wrong here.
00:06:59.240 Yeah.
00:06:59.680 Well, Jack, I think I want to focus on solutions.
00:07:02.440 That it'll take months, if not years, for Congress to figure out what went wrong.
00:07:07.100 But we realize that there are individual and systemic failures within the Secret Service.
00:07:13.220 And that's why I'm pushing for a crisis intervention team to go in there right now.
00:07:18.040 Look, if you have a superintendent of schools who's not doing the job, you have a football coach at your college, a university president, you have to clean house, typically.
00:07:27.180 So we fired the head coach here, but we got the assistant coach now running the same offense that's still not working.
00:07:34.500 And this particular person, there's no way the acting director can be objective.
00:07:39.300 It's just, it's impossible.
00:07:40.920 Instead, he says, look, I confess that we did some bad things there.
00:07:45.480 We didn't follow protocol.
00:07:46.940 But then he doesn't want to really solve them.
00:07:48.780 He doesn't want to fire anybody.
00:07:50.240 So my focus is getting a crisis intervention team to come in there and turn that place upside down.
00:07:56.880 And then number two is I think we need to take the investigation outside of the halls of Congress, that we need a non-political commission, people that are experts, people that can dedicate 10 or 12 hours a day for the next three weeks to jump in the middle of this so we don't have a repeat performance of this here in two or three months.
00:08:15.860 So my push is to move the ball along.
00:08:18.740 I've seen enough to know that there are systemic failures.
00:08:22.040 The culture within the Secret Service is a muck.
00:08:24.960 Think about this.
00:08:26.220 There's been a turn over of 48% of the employees at the Secret Service in the past year.
00:08:33.100 48%.
00:08:33.620 Barely 50% of the people that work for the Secret Service have confidence and trust in the leadership in the Secret Service.
00:08:41.940 So really, my thrust is to say, look, time out.
00:08:45.060 We need to start over right now.
00:08:46.680 And then finally, number three is what are we doing to make sure that President Trump has the security that he needs right now?
00:08:53.320 And, of course, Senator, this is one of the biggest issues.
00:08:58.280 And there's no question that with President Trump, he is probably the most high-profile individual to run for president.
00:09:04.420 But more at the point, no one running for political office should have to worry about their physical security in such a way.
00:09:11.700 This is something where I think a lot of people had nothing but the utmost respect for the Secret Service right up until this.
00:09:19.300 And I know that a lot of people have said since then that this has been something that's really damaged the reputation of the agency and is bringing these questions.
00:09:29.000 Senator, I just have to ask, though, you've been someone who's operated in the real world prior to getting into politics.
00:09:36.760 You know, is this something where you had a private organization anywhere where you could see these levels of failures and not even be able to get an answer as to who the individual was that's responsible?
00:09:48.500 Yeah, I think that's exactly where my experience has come from, being in the military, running a hospital, my dad, a chief of police, is that there would not be time for this nonsense.
00:10:00.320 That people, if we had a real commander-in-chief, he would have fired the administrator day one and within day two or three have appointed this crisis intervention team.
00:10:11.580 That's what real leadership does in the real world.
00:10:14.100 But instead, what we see is the acting administrator trying to protect everybody, trying to blame the local police, of all things, for their failure.
00:10:22.420 So what we saw is the current acting administrator saying the local police didn't do their job, but the local police are saying, look, the Secret Service never communicated to us.
00:10:32.000 They never even put us all on the same radio channel, for crying out loud.
00:10:35.860 So, yeah, you're right.
00:10:36.980 In the real world, this would have been all over.
00:10:40.180 We would have been starting over weeks ago.
00:10:41.960 And that's something that I think the average American back there is trying to ascertain as, look, they want to know what went wrong, what created these horrific images that we saw on our TV screens, that, of course, they're trying to take off our TV screens and our internet searches right now.
00:10:58.580 But to get an understanding of what went wrong, who made these decisions.
00:11:04.820 And I'll say as well, as also prior on the Navy side, Navy intelligence officer, that, look, you know, if there's a site survey that needs to get done, if there's a concept of operations, a conduct plan that's getting put together, we are going to know specifically whose job was it to set the perimeter, whose job was it to lay down the communications.
00:11:21.620 We would know exactly who that is.
00:11:24.480 And I understand that you're, you know, what you're doing is not attempting to put all the blame on what person, but you need to know these answers so that you can figure out the solution so that it doesn't happen again.
00:11:36.460 That's basically what it seems like to me that you were going for, Senator.
00:11:39.100 Senator, you got it.
00:11:42.240 So we would call this a postmortem exam in medicine or even in the military.
00:11:46.780 When there's a major event, every one of these events, after they occur, they should sit there and break it down.
00:11:53.000 What went right?
00:11:54.000 What went wrong?
00:11:54.940 What can we approve upon?
00:11:56.500 And I can guarantee you that we've probably been more lucky in the past year than we have been good.
00:12:01.680 And here at this one event, we saw this perfect storm where all these mistakes resulted into a 20-year-old kid with really minimal professional experience able to pull this off.
00:12:13.020 Running a drone right over where the president was going to be maybe just a couple hours before the president was on stage.
00:12:20.840 Just mistake after mistake, never setting.
00:12:23.760 The perimeter was never really clear.
00:12:25.740 Why did they make such a close perimeter with those 10 buildings with a free line of shot?
00:12:31.140 Why wasn't there better communication with the radios?
00:12:34.260 I mean, how many minutes passed from the time the local police recognized a shooter on the roof and we couldn't get that word to the Secret Service?
00:12:42.600 So it's almost, I hate to say, a comedy of errors.
00:12:45.040 But there are so many things that went wrong.
00:12:47.600 I would describe this as a systemic failure.
00:12:52.340 Senator, is there anything that really jumps out at you in terms of this, some of the specifics, any threads that you're pulling?
00:12:59.940 I know a lot of people are asking, how was it that he was able to get the rifle so close?
00:13:04.920 A lot of questions at the hearing about the drone coverage, the fact that the shooter had a drone and it turns out the Secret Service didn't.
00:13:15.320 Is there any one piece or one thread that you or your staff are really focusing and to zero in on?
00:13:21.200 Yeah, I think it's the motive.
00:13:24.580 Again, the physician in me wants to know the psychological makeup of this kid.
00:13:29.360 And I think if we had some really good FBI psychologists involved in this case, that they would be telling us that I bet this kid has a major depressive disorder.
00:13:39.180 I bet he's schizophrenic.
00:13:40.380 I bet he had hallucinations.
00:13:42.440 I bet he couldn't tell the real world from the fake world.
00:13:45.800 I think that he was obsessed probably with Lee Harvey Oswald and the JFK assassination.
00:13:52.220 I think that this was a young man who, when he was 15, he was not let on the rifle team and probably was bullied.
00:13:59.800 And for whatever reason, he tells the world, hey, I'm going to show everybody.
00:14:04.480 I'm going to go buy a rifle.
00:14:05.720 I'm going to learn how to shoot this rifle and I want my day of fame.
00:14:11.540 And I think that it's almost oversimplified what I'm describing.
00:14:15.280 But that's what I'm trying to understand is, is there any bigger motive than just that?
00:14:19.840 Now, we can't leave any stone unturned.
00:14:22.080 If there's anything else, anybody else involved with this, then the FBI better be letting us know that.
00:14:29.320 Well, you know, Senator, a lot of the psychological profile that you're focusing on and my own experience as an intelligence officer,
00:14:35.440 it sounds like you're talking about someone who may also be quite impressionable.
00:14:40.020 And so if the individual were talking to somebody, whether it be online, whether it be overseas, whatever it was,
00:14:47.280 doesn't that seem like the type of thing that we should get answers on?
00:14:50.980 Yeah, it does.
00:14:52.180 And again, I think it would relieve some of the conspiracy theories out there.
00:14:56.860 Is there, the FBI should be able to tell us at this point in time,
00:14:59.940 are there any other threads out there that we think that anybody's involved?
00:15:03.400 And if not, say so.
00:15:04.640 Look, here we are 17 days into the investigation,
00:15:07.080 and we see nothing that makes us think that there is an accomplice,
00:15:10.680 that indeed this young man got lucky, so to speak.
00:15:14.300 It was just that simple.
00:15:15.820 I would like to see that psychological evaluation on him and then share it with people,
00:15:20.560 again, just to shut down some of the conspiracy theories.
00:15:23.340 And again, I'm not willing to say there's no chance anything else could happen,
00:15:27.120 but to me it seems pretty obvious that that was his motive.
00:15:29.800 And, of course, you know, these are all things that would be a lot easier for us to be able to discuss.
00:15:39.420 And then, of course, for yourself as a senator, perhaps even be able to write legislation on
00:15:44.140 or take oversight on if we actually had the basic answers as to what went wrong and for the individual.
00:15:51.860 And, of course, it seems like every day we're getting more information that he was ordering explosive precursors
00:15:57.080 online using a false alias but having them sent to his address that he was able to go
00:16:03.200 in case the facility days in advance, flies the drone on the day of,
00:16:08.080 is able to ride up essentially with a bicycle and is not stopped, is not harassed,
00:16:14.080 is not even questioned by local law enforcement or has anyone intervened
00:16:19.280 until right about the time where he took the shots.
00:16:21.120 Yeah, all that's true.
00:16:25.240 Yeah, it sounds like it was a collapsible stock on his rifle.
00:16:28.680 That's probably what he was carrying in the backpack.
00:16:31.540 Where did he stash it?
00:16:32.800 Even just something as simple today is finally somebody said,
00:16:35.700 look, probably he jumped up on an air conditioning unit about four buildings away
00:16:39.740 and then shimmied across the jumping from roof to roof to four buildings.
00:16:44.300 That took about seven minutes.
00:16:45.840 How did he go those seven minutes without Secret Service not identifying a person
00:16:51.500 with a backpack going across there that meets the same description
00:16:55.900 as the photo that they were shown about an hour ago?
00:16:58.960 Something as simple as a drone in the air?
00:17:01.740 Operational control is what we would talk about as well in the military.
00:17:05.740 So, again, this is a comedy of errors on the part of the Secret Service.
00:17:09.780 This is why America has no confidence in them right now.
00:17:13.320 Senator, can I ask you, and I understand that you'll leave in a minute,
00:17:15.840 but what was your sense of the tone of the acting director?
00:17:20.340 Because I think that was quite surprising for a lot of people watching.
00:17:24.100 Yeah.
00:17:25.300 You know, I think he started off with a good tone,
00:17:27.840 trying to keep his composure, but eventually he got defensive.
00:17:32.000 And I think when he felt the pressure of everybody coming in on him,
00:17:35.740 and really his same is the answer was, well, I'll get back with you on that.
00:17:39.520 I'll give you more details later.
00:17:41.260 And then a lot of, I don't know.
00:17:42.820 I don't know why we set the perimeter where we did.
00:17:45.200 And when I would ask him, do you have a protocol that describes how you would set the perimeters?
00:17:50.040 No, we don't.
00:17:51.140 So I think eventually he became very defensive.
00:17:53.800 And that's why I say he can't be objective in this job.
00:17:56.460 I don't doubt he's a good person,
00:17:58.100 but I'm just saying that nobody within the Secret Service right now can be objective.
00:18:02.700 And that's why we need to bring in some type of a crisis management team
00:18:06.220 to take that particular agency over
00:18:08.440 and to keep President Trump and others safe here in the future.
00:18:11.380 Senator Roger Marshall, thank you for your time, sir.
00:18:13.740 Thanks, Jack.
00:18:15.200 All right, Jack Posobiec here, Butler, Pennsylvania,
00:18:32.140 standing on the site of the Butler Farm Show,
00:18:36.400 where on July 13th, about two and a half weeks ago,
00:18:40.040 Donald Trump 2024 was shot by allegedly one individual
00:18:45.940 standing in this building right behind me,
00:18:48.000 the AGR building from a distance of about 158 yards.
00:18:52.540 And I can tell you as I'm standing here right now that,
00:18:55.420 I mean, this distance does not look far at all.
00:18:57.300 You can see, of course, here's the water tower just behind me.
00:19:00.540 If someone had been on that water tower,
00:19:02.360 they easily would have been able to see someone on both sides of,
00:19:06.820 yes, there is a sloped roof on here.
00:19:09.720 It's a very minimal slope.
00:19:11.340 It's almost completely flat.
00:19:13.320 But if someone had been on that water tower right there,
00:19:16.140 then you would easily have been able to see someone on the top of this building.
00:19:19.580 As we turn over here,
00:19:20.880 you could see, so there's some open area.
00:19:23.660 There's the fence line.
00:19:25.000 Again, this was completely unprotected, undefended on that day.
00:19:28.800 And in the background,
00:19:30.780 right about here is where President Trump was speaking.
00:19:35.960 They're getting ready for the next farm show,
00:19:38.280 which is going to be set up soon by this weekend.
00:19:40.680 So they're getting ready.
00:19:42.000 Counter sniper teams for the Secret Service were on this red building
00:19:45.000 and this red building, which are just behind me,
00:19:47.060 behind the tent right there.
00:19:48.080 And so this is where the shot was taken to take out Crooks,
00:19:53.420 who again was on this building right behind me.
00:19:56.920 So just judging from the basic distance,
00:19:59.720 this is not a far shot.
00:20:00.960 This is not a hard shot.
00:20:01.980 You can see, like if you go up a little bit here, watch.
00:20:08.240 Give you a rough example.
00:20:10.000 But so here I am right next to the building.
00:20:13.140 Here I am right next to the building itself.
00:20:14.860 And then you can see behind me,
00:20:16.020 so there's some other people who came by.
00:20:18.760 Nice family up from Kentucky.
00:20:20.500 You can see about their distance.
00:20:22.480 So this is about the distance.
00:20:23.720 This is what it would have looked like through the red site.
00:20:27.180 With Thomas Matthew Crooks that day,
00:20:29.060 coming from this building, roughly that size.
00:20:34.420 Whether you used red dot, EOTech, or iron sights,
00:20:39.000 not a hard shot.
00:20:39.860 Just not a hard shot.
00:20:42.280 And the question is, why was this building?
00:20:46.080 Why was this building left undefended?
00:20:49.120 Why was this building left unguarded?
00:20:51.260 Why was nobody on this building to try to ascertain what would have gone wrong?
00:20:59.140 And we're also told that there was a sniper team on that building on the second floor.
00:21:04.640 So if there was a sniper team in the building behind it,
00:21:09.160 why would they not have seen the person on this building?
00:21:13.140 Just look out the window, and there he is.
00:21:15.740 A lot of questions, no answers.
00:21:18.060 Again, I'll just say from a personal perspective that standing here,
00:21:25.040 the distance, everything seems so much smaller than it looks like on TV.
00:21:29.540 You realize it's not even a one-minute walk from one building to the other.
00:21:34.920 It's not even hard to view anyone that far.
00:21:39.860 It shouldn't have been hard to see someone climbing up on this building.
00:21:42.700 So why are we not getting any answers about this from the Secret Service,
00:21:48.660 who seem to be putting everything on local law enforcement,
00:21:51.240 local law enforcement saying that they didn't hear from Secret Service on the day of,
00:21:55.600 they didn't have good planning, they didn't have good communication.
00:21:59.100 And again, Corey Campatore was killed right about here in the stands,
00:22:06.880 protecting his wife and daughter.
00:22:09.080 And President Trump was shot right about here and almost killed half an inch away from Civil War.
00:22:23.740 It was a nice day, just like this.
00:22:28.720 All right, Jack Pacific, so you guys just saw that footage,
00:22:31.880 which I just took in Butler, Pennsylvania.
00:22:35.580 Having just seen the site myself, we've been talking about this.
00:22:39.020 I went and did the show with Tucker talking about this just days after the event itself happened.
00:22:43.760 Now I've been out here two weeks after the shooting took place.
00:22:48.440 And I've got to tell you, folks,
00:22:50.140 the fact is that anyone should have been able to see someone climbing up on that roof.
00:22:55.740 And of course, there's new footage, which was released yesterday,
00:22:58.380 that show him not lying prone, by the way,
00:23:01.200 but actually running around on the roof itself.
00:23:05.840 Big question to be answered here.
00:23:08.220 Why is it the Secret Service director told us at length,
00:23:12.980 angrily, that this guy was prone, that he was laying prone the whole time.
00:23:17.580 And then video comes out showing him running around on the building.
00:23:21.580 If he was running around on the building,
00:23:23.920 if he was running around without, you know, laying himself prone,
00:23:28.160 without concealing himself,
00:23:30.300 why was it that the counter sniper team was not informed
00:23:33.360 that this indeed was the person of interest that they had been tracking,
00:23:37.780 that local enforcement had been tracking?
00:23:39.580 You don't say, oh, we're dealing with something.
00:23:41.180 No, you would pass that we're dealing with potential armed gunman.
00:23:45.060 He's got a backpack.
00:23:46.420 He's got all of these things.
00:23:47.780 We're really supposed to believe this was just a breakdown in communication,
00:23:50.480 and that's all that went wrong.
00:23:51.680 Look, I've just walked the site myself.
00:23:53.480 Let me tell you something.
00:23:54.300 That's not a far distance.
00:23:56.020 This is the immediate first building.
00:23:58.500 It's the first building.
00:23:59.560 The first building between where Donald Trump was
00:24:02.080 and that building complex, the AGR complex over there.
00:24:05.940 There's no question that that roof should have been covered.
00:24:08.500 And number two, those overwatch buildings that you can see,
00:24:13.100 and actually, even in the footage that we're showing right now,
00:24:14.960 this B-roll, it's hard to realize that the second floor windows there
00:24:19.500 overlook the building.
00:24:21.140 So they're overlooking that building.
00:24:23.060 So if you were inside that roof,
00:24:24.780 you should have been able to see someone on the lower roof
00:24:28.400 because that building is actually lower than the ones
00:24:31.720 where the sniper team was supposed to be,
00:24:33.800 potentially this local sniper team.
00:24:35.480 So there's so many questions here.
00:24:37.420 We are going to get to the bottom of it
00:24:39.320 because this is something where,
00:24:42.340 and look, I got some good news yesterday involving the book Unhumans.
00:24:46.820 We just found out that Unhumans,
00:24:48.940 I actually got a call during the Trump rally in Harrisburg last night.
00:24:52.500 We drove up to Pittsburgh and Butler after,
00:24:55.440 but I got the good news that Unhumans did make the New York Times bestseller list.
00:24:59.760 Very excited about that.
00:25:00.640 Want to give a huge thank you, by the way,
00:25:02.460 to the audience and everybody who purchased that.
00:25:04.880 But I have to tell you that even though, you know,
00:25:08.320 when you hit something like the New York Times bestseller list,
00:25:10.440 you're supposed to be batting yourself on the back
00:25:12.900 and, you know, doing your victory lap,
00:25:14.700 most people would be going and doing more media.
00:25:16.760 I got to tell you, the only thing I can think about
00:25:18.560 is those 148 yards between Thomas Matthew Crooks and President Trump
00:25:23.380 and the fact that we know, we know for a fact now
00:25:26.460 that the Secret Service acting director is lying to us.
00:25:29.740 We know that the FBI is not giving us the true information about this individual.
00:25:34.640 First saying they had no social media,
00:25:36.460 then he's saying that he might have social media.
00:25:38.580 Then they throw out this stuff about anti-Semitic,
00:25:41.100 but when they get pushed, they say,
00:25:42.140 well, no, actually, he was pro-immigrant and pro-Biden.
00:25:44.700 So, okay, which is it?
00:25:45.880 Right, you're giving us double stories,
00:25:47.160 you're giving us double talk,
00:25:48.340 you won't give us basic information,
00:25:50.280 Chris Wray spreading this absolutely false conspiracy theory
00:25:53.300 information operation,
00:25:54.600 saying that it was shrapnel that hit the president.
00:25:56.600 Look, folks, I don't know,
00:26:00.060 but we've got to absolutely get to the bottom
00:26:02.940 of what happened on that field in Butler, Pennsylvania,
00:26:06.440 that put this country one inch away from the brink.
00:26:12.000 We were one inch away from the brink of losing all of this,
00:26:18.380 of civil war, of mass civil unrest,
00:26:21.620 totalitarian governance.
00:26:23.520 Take your pick.
00:26:24.740 That's what could have happened there.
00:26:26.800 Something else, by the way, running around,
00:26:28.260 we've got Richard Barris coming up later here in the show
00:26:30.260 to talk about this is the fact
00:26:32.460 that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
00:26:35.640 is potentially going to be
00:26:37.960 our next vice presidential candidate
00:26:40.700 for the Democrat National Committee.
00:26:44.240 He seems to be the front runner.
00:26:45.700 All of my reporting shows
00:26:47.460 that he is in the lead for this,
00:26:49.320 been on the road a lot,
00:26:50.140 so I have to double check back in with my sources.
00:26:53.060 But I've got to tell you that
00:26:54.240 with this guy going in,
00:26:55.880 one of the big stories
00:26:57.180 that a lot of people are going to start asking questions about,
00:26:59.740 this is a story that I've known about
00:27:01.320 for a long time,
00:27:02.080 being from the Philadelphia area.
00:27:03.620 Everyone in Philadelphia talks about it.
00:27:05.760 Everybody wants to know
00:27:06.800 is the story of Ellen Greenberg.
00:27:09.860 The story of Ellen Greenberg
00:27:11.580 and what is Josh Shapiro's connection to this case?
00:27:14.340 So the death of Ellen Greenberg,
00:27:17.300 was it a suicide or was it a homicide?
00:27:20.720 So Ellen Greenberg, young woman,
00:27:24.040 engaged to be married,
00:27:24.920 only months away from her wedding,
00:27:26.480 trying on, this is back in 2011,
00:27:28.400 and she was found dead
00:27:31.600 in her apartment.
00:27:35.240 Stabbed 20 times,
00:27:38.060 including two,
00:27:40.000 which were actually post-mortem.
00:27:42.240 Why do we know that?
00:27:43.560 Well, because there was no hemorrhaging.
00:27:46.500 If there was no hemorrhaging,
00:27:48.500 it stands to reason
00:27:49.320 that's because there was no pulse,
00:27:50.940 because she'd already been killed.
00:27:51.900 Now,
00:27:54.100 if you don't have blood coursing through your veins,
00:27:59.000 if your heart isn't eating,
00:28:00.560 then you don't have the ability
00:28:01.700 to raise your arm
00:28:02.900 and put a knife into your back.
00:28:08.360 Yet for some reason,
00:28:10.100 the Philadelphia Coroner's Department
00:28:13.140 initially had labeled this thing as homicide.
00:28:16.940 Defensive wounds, by the way,
00:28:19.080 found on Ellen Greenberg's body.
00:28:21.800 But then later changed it to suicide.
00:28:25.440 And the Philadelphia DA,
00:28:28.160 Soros Tide DA Larry Krasner,
00:28:30.160 has upheld the fact that it was a suicide.
00:28:32.140 And then Pennsylvania's attorney general
00:28:34.900 held up this new labeling of suicide.
00:28:40.360 What was that attorney general's name,
00:28:42.460 by the way,
00:28:43.100 when it came up?
00:28:44.020 Oh, that's right.
00:28:45.520 Josh Shapiro.
00:28:47.600 So before Josh Shapiro
00:28:48.760 became the governor of Pennsylvania,
00:28:50.180 which he is currently,
00:28:51.740 he backed up the idea
00:28:54.060 that Ellen Greenberg
00:28:55.520 somehow was able to stab herself in the back
00:28:59.140 while her heart was not beating.
00:29:01.620 And somehow she was able
00:29:03.720 to do all of these things
00:29:05.620 after she had been stabbed 20 times.
00:29:09.400 So the question is,
00:29:11.180 was this really a suicide?
00:29:13.080 Or was this potentially a homicide?
00:29:15.960 And if it was a homicide,
00:29:17.980 the question, of course, becomes,
00:29:19.960 who was the killer?
00:29:21.400 Who was the perpetrator
00:29:23.000 of this disgusting, heinous act
00:29:25.240 on an innocent young girl in Pennsylvania?
00:29:29.160 Josh Shapiro won't give you those answers.
00:29:31.880 Folks, Americans are tired and frustrated
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00:30:40.820 Where's Jack?
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00:30:44.200 Jack, I want to see you.
00:30:47.840 Great job, Jack.
00:30:49.360 Thank you.
00:30:50.140 What a job you do.
00:30:51.560 You know,
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00:30:52.920 We're always talking about
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00:30:55.260 but we have guys
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00:31:02.440 All right, folks,
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00:31:58.500 Want to bring on now
00:31:59.300 Richard Barris,
00:32:01.160 the People's Pollster.
00:32:02.220 Now, Rich,
00:32:03.100 we're of course
00:32:04.300 talking all about,
00:32:05.420 I was diving into
00:32:06.160 one of these cases
00:32:06.820 that Josh Shapiro
00:32:08.080 played a role in
00:32:09.200 back in Philadelphia,
00:32:10.680 back in his time
00:32:11.780 as Attorney General
00:32:12.680 immediately prior
00:32:13.760 to becoming governor.
00:32:15.280 There's all this talk
00:32:16.280 about him being chosen
00:32:17.680 as the VP candidate
00:32:19.820 under Kamala Harris.
00:32:20.680 Got to get your take
00:32:21.740 on that
00:32:22.160 and then your overall,
00:32:24.480 I know you guys
00:32:24.960 have a new pullout,
00:32:25.700 I want to get into
00:32:26.320 your overall take
00:32:27.400 on the case,
00:32:27.960 but let's look at it
00:32:29.500 this way.
00:32:29.920 Do you believe
00:32:30.780 that if she does
00:32:31.920 indeed choose
00:32:32.480 Josh Shapiro
00:32:33.120 or whoever she chooses
00:32:34.780 next week,
00:32:36.840 is that going to play
00:32:37.720 a major change
00:32:38.600 or a major role
00:32:39.240 in this race?
00:32:40.700 I'm not,
00:32:41.520 I don't subscribe
00:32:42.300 to the school of thought
00:32:43.400 that VP candidates
00:32:44.640 are a huge impact.
00:32:46.560 I mean,
00:32:46.780 they can be marginal,
00:32:48.180 Jack,
00:32:48.480 but the presidential
00:32:50.040 candidate has got
00:32:51.360 to win the state
00:32:52.460 on their own.
00:32:53.500 They've got to do
00:32:54.220 it on their own.
00:32:55.040 So,
00:32:55.740 you know,
00:32:56.320 I never did buy that.
00:32:57.160 It's like the old LBJ thing
00:32:58.900 and then that led
00:32:59.640 to like decades
00:33:00.460 of us all,
00:33:01.440 you know,
00:33:01.840 going on,
00:33:02.400 pining on the impact
00:33:03.780 of vice presidential
00:33:04.580 candidates.
00:33:05.360 But look,
00:33:06.140 Paul Ryan
00:33:06.740 not only couldn't help
00:33:07.940 Mitt Romney
00:33:08.400 carry Wisconsin,
00:33:09.320 he couldn't even help
00:33:09.980 him carry the first
00:33:10.860 congressional district,
00:33:12.120 his own district.
00:33:13.740 So I really don't buy that.
00:33:15.480 I mean,
00:33:15.620 the thing with Shapiro
00:33:16.500 and I do think
00:33:17.600 he's the pick.
00:33:18.560 The thing with Shapiro
00:33:19.560 is that,
00:33:20.640 you know,
00:33:20.980 he ran against Mastriano,
00:33:22.840 nobody helped Mastriano.
00:33:24.360 He was viewed to be
00:33:25.220 like too Trumpy.
00:33:26.560 The RGA
00:33:27.180 didn't do anything.
00:33:28.580 So,
00:33:29.060 I mean,
00:33:29.380 I hope the Harris team
00:33:30.240 is doing their due diligence
00:33:31.260 because it didn't take you
00:33:32.200 long to find something.
00:33:33.600 You know,
00:33:33.760 they can hurt
00:33:34.380 the top of the ticket,
00:33:35.620 but they can only
00:33:36.760 very marginally
00:33:38.100 help the top of the ticket.
00:33:39.480 And he's more likely
00:33:40.900 to help her
00:33:42.100 because he's the governor
00:33:42.920 of Pennsylvania
00:33:43.740 and they have enormous power
00:33:45.240 over how elections
00:33:46.100 are conducted
00:33:46.680 for right or wrong,
00:33:48.520 by the way,
00:33:49.240 but that he's more likely
00:33:50.500 to help her
00:33:51.020 in that capacity
00:33:51.840 than he is
00:33:52.520 with his electoral appeal.
00:33:54.320 And I actually think
00:33:55.140 that if they do pick Shapiro,
00:33:56.920 they're going to be trading
00:33:58.020 some votes.
00:33:59.800 You know,
00:34:00.400 that he's not going to play well
00:34:01.680 in some parts of Michigan
00:34:02.660 and Minnesota.
00:34:03.600 That's for sure.
00:34:04.480 But they are going to,
00:34:05.620 I do think it's him
00:34:06.380 because their plan
00:34:07.080 is very clearly
00:34:08.200 Pennsylvania
00:34:09.080 and then peel off
00:34:10.240 some of the sunbelts.
00:34:11.400 That's the way,
00:34:11.920 that's what they feel
00:34:12.520 they can do.
00:34:13.660 That's the goal.
00:34:15.240 Well,
00:34:16.000 it clearly is.
00:34:16.820 And this is going to be,
00:34:18.140 it's going to be
00:34:19.160 a belt election.
00:34:20.240 So it's the sunbelt
00:34:20.960 and the rustbelt.
00:34:21.840 So these are the two belts.
00:34:23.580 And by the way,
00:34:24.240 every time I talk about that,
00:34:25.620 people always say like,
00:34:26.500 what about my part
00:34:27.280 of the country?
00:34:27.880 What about,
00:34:28.280 don't we matter?
00:34:28.960 I say,
00:34:29.140 no,
00:34:29.300 you matter,
00:34:29.880 but you matter differently
00:34:31.360 in the way
00:34:32.100 that these swing states matter
00:34:33.760 because,
00:34:34.500 and that's not a function
00:34:35.280 of any one person
00:34:36.260 or a value statement
00:34:37.320 on any one person,
00:34:38.540 but it does,
00:34:39.660 it explains how the demographics
00:34:41.440 have shifted
00:34:41.860 around our country
00:34:42.580 to be in such a way
00:34:43.700 where pockets of certain states
00:34:46.140 are willing to move
00:34:47.000 one way or the other.
00:34:47.840 And by the way,
00:34:49.460 Rich,
00:34:49.800 here's something
00:34:50.240 that I was pointing out
00:34:51.160 to a lot of reporters
00:34:52.500 last night
00:34:53.040 when I was in Harrisburg.
00:34:54.580 They said,
00:34:55.300 well,
00:34:55.540 you know,
00:34:55.920 Josh Shapiro
00:34:56.500 has won a lot of votes
00:34:57.480 in this state.
00:34:58.000 He's won statewide
00:34:58.660 a number of times,
00:35:00.100 you know,
00:35:00.340 including 2020
00:35:01.100 when he ran for AG.
00:35:02.420 Do you think that,
00:35:03.320 you know,
00:35:03.760 he's going to be
00:35:04.100 real formidable?
00:35:04.900 And I said,
00:35:05.620 I said,
00:35:05.920 have you even looked
00:35:06.600 at the crosstabs of that?
00:35:07.980 Is that a lot of
00:35:08.900 Pennsylvania voters
00:35:09.780 vote,
00:35:10.180 will split their tickets.
00:35:11.400 They vote with their wallets
00:35:12.320 like most of the Rust Belt does.
00:35:14.320 And,
00:35:14.420 and yeah,
00:35:15.420 he only won statewide
00:35:17.020 because,
00:35:17.800 and this is what people
00:35:18.300 need to understand,
00:35:18.860 and I know that conservatives
00:35:19.900 won't like it when I say this,
00:35:21.280 but there were Trump,
00:35:22.620 Shapiro voters in 2020.
00:35:25.760 Of course he,
00:35:26.520 that's how he was able to win.
00:35:28.620 And so,
00:35:29.420 but if you put someone down
00:35:30.980 who's a Trump,
00:35:31.580 Shapiro voter and say,
00:35:32.640 okay,
00:35:32.860 now choose that one for president
00:35:35.180 and who will be,
00:35:36.840 you know,
00:35:37.100 associated with the,
00:35:38.580 the other presidential ticket,
00:35:39.980 they're going to choose
00:35:40.820 Trump every time.
00:35:41.820 But this is something
00:35:42.840 that they don't understand
00:35:43.880 about when,
00:35:45.020 about going under the hood
00:35:47.060 of these elections,
00:35:47.900 that those type of voters
00:35:49.120 are always going to go
00:35:50.480 with the strongest force
00:35:51.320 that they believe in the race
00:35:52.300 with 2020.
00:35:54.000 They saw that as Trump,
00:35:55.120 Shapiro,
00:35:55.820 but going ahead
00:35:56.960 for that specific race,
00:35:58.420 again,
00:35:58.700 like I'm saying
00:36:00.520 for Trump all the way,
00:36:02.160 he's going to,
00:36:02.780 all of that support
00:36:03.420 is going to evaporate.
00:36:04.520 And I don't see any of them
00:36:05.360 under who could even
00:36:06.040 grasp this concept.
00:36:08.500 Yeah,
00:36:08.860 we're politicos.
00:36:09.760 So,
00:36:10.060 you know,
00:36:10.560 we,
00:36:11.040 we,
00:36:11.780 there are people out there
00:36:12.980 who just can't understand
00:36:13.860 how there could be
00:36:14.540 a Shapiro Trump vote,
00:36:15.840 but there definitely is.
00:36:16.980 I mean,
00:36:17.140 I don't know how you can argue
00:36:18.140 there isn't.
00:36:19.100 And also too,
00:36:20.160 this is something
00:36:20.820 we discussed a lot
00:36:21.740 during the Republican primary.
00:36:23.540 Your performance
00:36:24.420 at a statewide level
00:36:26.080 for statewide office
00:36:27.660 is basically
00:36:28.820 no indication
00:36:30.180 of how you're going
00:36:30.920 to perform
00:36:31.340 for a federal office.
00:36:33.220 If that was,
00:36:34.140 then Bradenson
00:36:34.740 would have been
00:36:36.000 the senator from Tennessee
00:36:37.220 instead of Marsha Blackburn.
00:36:38.880 So,
00:36:39.500 that is like something
00:36:40.880 we have to discuss
00:36:41.880 every election cycle.
00:36:43.080 It doesn't seem to seep
00:36:43.960 into people's heads.
00:36:45.100 When Tip O'Neill said
00:36:45.960 all politics are local,
00:36:47.120 he really was talking
00:36:47.940 about gubernatorial races
00:36:49.220 because,
00:36:50.340 you know,
00:36:50.700 you can have somewhere
00:36:51.360 like the Nutmeg State,
00:36:52.880 Connecticut,
00:36:53.620 you know,
00:36:53.940 vote for Republican governors.
00:36:55.340 You can have Massachusetts
00:36:56.140 vote for Republican governors.
00:36:57.660 You can have Pennsylvania
00:36:58.600 vote for a Democratic governor,
00:36:59.980 but it does not mean
00:37:01.440 that when they run for Senate
00:37:02.740 or when they run
00:37:03.540 for the presidency
00:37:04.420 that they will carry that state.
00:37:06.660 By the way,
00:37:07.120 Al Gore lost his home state
00:37:08.660 of Tennessee
00:37:09.120 when he ran against
00:37:10.240 George W. Bush.
00:37:11.540 Now,
00:37:11.820 his dad was a senator
00:37:12.820 from that state,
00:37:13.700 you know,
00:37:13.920 so many years ago.
00:37:14.980 Things change,
00:37:15.860 but gubernatorial politics
00:37:17.280 are almost like
00:37:18.100 the worst indications
00:37:19.500 of how people are going to vote
00:37:20.520 at the presidential level.
00:37:22.060 The worst.
00:37:23.360 But this is something too,
00:37:24.480 and I have to say this,
00:37:25.720 by the way,
00:37:26.140 to like the other
00:37:26.900 conservative,
00:37:28.040 I don't know,
00:37:28.540 pundits,
00:37:29.160 media,
00:37:29.720 prognosticators,
00:37:30.640 whatever you want to call it,
00:37:31.440 is that there is a reason
00:37:33.060 why the Mitt Romneys
00:37:34.540 and the John McCains
00:37:36.000 and the Paul Ryans
00:37:37.500 lost the Rust Belt,
00:37:39.460 okay?
00:37:40.000 There's a reason
00:37:40.840 because these people
00:37:42.260 vote with their wallets
00:37:43.340 and they vote for jobs.
00:37:44.640 You guys focused on overseas.
00:37:46.560 You wanted to send wars overseas.
00:37:49.060 You wanted to send
00:37:50.180 our boys and girls overseas
00:37:51.580 and soldiers overseas,
00:37:52.500 and you wanted to send
00:37:53.520 jobs overseas.
00:37:55.360 And then a Democrat
00:37:56.020 comes in and says,
00:37:57.140 you know what?
00:37:58.020 I'm all about jobs,
00:38:00.240 jobs, jobs.
00:38:01.160 I'm all about unions.
00:38:02.060 And people hear that
00:38:03.000 and they say,
00:38:03.480 okay, that's what
00:38:04.180 I'm going to vote for.
00:38:05.280 That's why none of those guys
00:38:06.480 could ever play
00:38:07.560 in these states.
00:38:09.180 There's no chance.
00:38:11.320 We just did trust
00:38:12.240 to handle issues.
00:38:13.440 And one of the issues
00:38:14.520 that I was dying
00:38:16.540 to see the results of
00:38:17.680 was labor and union issues
00:38:20.540 because Biden
00:38:21.740 had been cratering
00:38:23.080 and we all know that
00:38:24.060 and he began to really
00:38:25.220 lose ground against Trump
00:38:26.360 on issues that Democrats
00:38:27.560 almost always carry
00:38:29.020 when you ask people
00:38:29.880 who do you trust
00:38:30.480 to handle those issues more.
00:38:32.280 And this month
00:38:33.280 when we asked
00:38:34.000 who do you trust
00:38:34.680 to handle labor
00:38:35.520 and union issues,
00:38:38.040 Donald Trump
00:38:38.900 actually edged out
00:38:40.080 Kamala Harris as well,
00:38:41.720 44.3 to 41.9.
00:38:44.080 So about a two-point edge
00:38:45.480 for Trump,
00:38:45.900 which sounds like nothing
00:38:47.260 until you realize
00:38:48.580 that Republicans
00:38:49.220 are never supposed
00:38:50.300 to have an edge at all
00:38:52.020 over the Democrat
00:38:53.160 on union and labor issues, Jack.
00:38:55.900 When you dig further
00:38:56.900 into the crosstabs,
00:38:58.040 you'll see union households
00:38:59.640 are backing Kamala Harris
00:39:00.860 but not private union households.
00:39:03.240 So what does it matter
00:39:04.100 in the Rust Belt?
00:39:05.120 Public union households
00:39:06.100 are like Northern Virginia, folks, right?
00:39:08.300 So it makes sense
00:39:09.000 Kamala's doing better
00:39:10.020 in a state like Virginia.
00:39:11.480 But Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania
00:39:13.940 and less so Wisconsin now
00:39:15.840 but Michigan, Pennsylvania,
00:39:17.560 these are private unions.
00:39:19.340 We're talking about welders
00:39:21.120 and steel workers
00:39:22.140 and right
00:39:22.840 and those are the people that,
00:39:25.060 you know, by the way,
00:39:25.580 they voted for Barack Obama twice
00:39:27.140 and now they're among
00:39:28.300 the most Trump loyal people out there.
00:39:30.680 They will never vote
00:39:31.900 for a traditional Republican.
00:39:33.340 I hate to burst everybody's bubble
00:39:35.040 but that is not going to happen.
00:39:37.580 You know, Rick Sincone
00:39:38.420 tried to do the impossible there,
00:39:40.560 beat Conor Lamb,
00:39:41.580 you know, with Trump there by his side.
00:39:43.120 He closed the gap
00:39:43.980 but he still had that what?
00:39:46.020 He, Rick Sincone had a brand of,
00:39:49.540 because he did have the history
00:39:50.580 of being kind of anti-union.
00:39:52.840 So no matter how much
00:39:53.660 he tried to change his stripes,
00:39:55.160 it didn't work.
00:39:56.260 It was close,
00:39:56.960 but it didn't work.
00:39:58.240 And, you know, again,
00:39:59.540 I think that's a big problem
00:40:01.140 for Harris.
00:40:02.800 I would have,
00:40:03.180 there's a couple of groups
00:40:04.000 we did see move back to Harris.
00:40:05.760 Private union workers
00:40:06.680 were not one of them.
00:40:07.440 By the way,
00:40:10.380 we're just getting breaking news
00:40:11.540 in that
00:40:12.320 Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
00:40:14.140 has canceled
00:40:14.960 his fundraising events
00:40:16.420 for this weekend
00:40:17.180 in New York
00:40:18.600 and the Hamptons.
00:40:21.380 And,
00:40:21.540 you know,
00:40:23.180 that could be,
00:40:24.260 that could mean a lot of things.
00:40:25.680 That could mean a lot of different things.
00:40:27.880 But,
00:40:28.260 you know,
00:40:29.220 possibly,
00:40:30.040 one thing we've been hearing about
00:40:31.260 is in briefing
00:40:32.220 for Secret Service,
00:40:33.740 potential for looking at
00:40:35.140 his family,
00:40:36.700 et cetera.
00:40:37.360 So we're going to,
00:40:37.940 we're going to figure that out.
00:40:39.020 We're going to find out more
00:40:39.960 what's going on there
00:40:40.960 and dig deeper.
00:40:42.100 But again,
00:40:42.500 all indications
00:40:43.380 from what I'm hearing,
00:40:44.120 Josh Shapiro
00:40:44.840 is the front runner.
00:40:46.540 It's his to lose
00:40:47.460 as a vice presidential pick
00:40:49.060 here going into
00:40:50.540 the final few weeks
00:40:51.800 of the presidential race
00:40:53.200 here in 2024.
00:40:55.360 Right back,
00:40:55.800 Richard Barris,
00:40:56.360 the People's Pundit.
00:40:59.180 My ear about the boring people
00:41:01.360 at your office.
00:41:02.200 I'm trying to listen
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00:41:06.920 All right,
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00:42:13.380 Rolling with Rich Barris,
00:42:14.200 the People's Fund.
00:42:14.740 Rich,
00:42:15.600 so you've been crunching
00:42:16.660 the numbers.
00:42:17.140 We've also been looking
00:42:18.120 at a lot of these polls.
00:42:19.460 I see a lot of people around me,
00:42:20.640 they're blackpilling.
00:42:21.700 They're saying,
00:42:22.080 a lot of Republicans
00:42:22.660 calling me saying,
00:42:23.280 oh, we're blackpilled again.
00:42:24.560 Total despair.
00:42:26.000 Kamala Harris
00:42:26.580 is going to run away with this.
00:42:27.840 They're just totally believing
00:42:29.120 all the media headlines
00:42:30.480 out there.
00:42:31.500 What's going on?
00:42:33.640 How can we cover
00:42:34.380 some of this noise?
00:42:36.200 You know,
00:42:36.480 I'm like beating
00:42:38.180 a dead horse over here.
00:42:39.740 Let me just throw
00:42:40.240 this stat out there.
00:42:41.600 So,
00:42:41.940 last couple of months,
00:42:43.220 you know,
00:42:44.260 a lot of Republicans
00:42:44.940 have been super willing
00:42:46.360 to talk to pollsters,
00:42:47.700 and the electorate
00:42:48.980 has looked like
00:42:49.620 it was going to be
00:42:50.300 rather Republican.
00:42:51.220 You saw the Gallup Party
00:42:52.200 identification
00:42:53.040 was R plus six nationwide.
00:42:55.540 Democrats have kind of
00:42:56.480 been hiding under a rock
00:42:58.280 as Joe Biden
00:42:59.420 flops on the debate.
00:43:01.120 There's the attempt
00:43:01.700 at assassination
00:43:02.340 of Donald Trump,
00:43:03.920 and that definitely
00:43:04.900 impacts polling.
00:43:06.080 I mean,
00:43:06.540 it impacts
00:43:07.500 what we call
00:43:08.560 response bias
00:43:09.600 that could,
00:43:10.580 you know,
00:43:11.060 affect a poll.
00:43:12.980 Like,
00:43:13.140 certain groups
00:43:13.640 are just more willing
00:43:14.440 to talk that week
00:43:15.540 or that month.
00:43:16.740 A great example
00:43:17.800 is Mitt Romney.
00:43:18.720 He was never leading
00:43:19.600 Barack Obama by four.
00:43:20.980 Pew Research just,
00:43:22.240 you know,
00:43:22.720 did a poll
00:43:23.280 after he beat
00:43:24.140 Barack Obama
00:43:24.740 in the first debate,
00:43:25.580 and more Republicans
00:43:26.200 were willing to talk.
00:43:27.560 But that wasn't
00:43:28.120 really reflect,
00:43:29.440 you know,
00:43:29.740 it wasn't an accurate
00:43:30.740 reflection of public opinion.
00:43:32.880 And Americans
00:43:33.600 are getting hit
00:43:34.420 every week,
00:43:35.640 every two weeks,
00:43:36.600 at least every month
00:43:37.880 with, like,
00:43:38.520 once-in-a-lifetime stories.
00:43:40.480 If you don't think
00:43:41.300 that's going to impact
00:43:42.300 or cause
00:43:43.220 or fuel a response bias,
00:43:44.900 then I would argue
00:43:45.800 you don't know
00:43:46.320 what you're talking about.
00:43:47.280 Of course it does.
00:43:48.400 And this month,
00:43:50.280 seven black voters
00:43:52.560 alone were almost 17%,
00:43:54.040 but Democrats
00:43:54.720 were much more likely
00:43:56.160 to want to participate
00:43:58.380 in polling
00:43:59.040 and the raw data itself
00:44:01.460 was just more Democratic.
00:44:03.380 And I think
00:44:04.200 that's something
00:44:04.760 that other,
00:44:05.360 not just me,
00:44:06.880 but other pollsters
00:44:07.920 no doubt see
00:44:08.880 and they're not telling
00:44:09.820 the whole story here.
00:44:11.180 I got to tell you,
00:44:11.860 like I said,
00:44:12.940 the race clearly tightened.
00:44:14.120 You can see the headline
00:44:14.780 from Big Data Poll.
00:44:15.920 It absolutely did tighten,
00:44:17.580 but I would argue
00:44:18.360 it's really caused
00:44:19.500 more by this.
00:44:20.180 We can get into
00:44:20.980 different groups
00:44:21.620 that legitimately
00:44:22.400 moved to Kamala Harris,
00:44:23.920 but what is going on here
00:44:25.440 is not,
00:44:26.120 that's not the totality of it.
00:44:27.860 It's not that she jumped
00:44:28.980 in the media,
00:44:29.700 he preys on her
00:44:30.780 and people are legitimately
00:44:32.220 changing their minds.
00:44:33.540 Democrats are getting
00:44:34.340 more excited.
00:44:35.680 They're reporting
00:44:36.480 to be more certain
00:44:37.500 to vote,
00:44:38.120 more enthusiastic
00:44:38.860 than they were
00:44:40.000 in the last couple of months.
00:44:41.460 So, you know,
00:44:42.220 when we did find
00:44:43.320 these leads
00:44:43.820 that were Trump plus seven,
00:44:45.220 you know,
00:44:45.940 I'm trying to be
00:44:46.600 consistent here.
00:44:47.240 I told people then
00:44:48.740 that I thought
00:44:49.200 that was like
00:44:49.660 flatly unbelievable.
00:44:51.100 Sure, that's the number,
00:44:52.220 but Republicans
00:44:53.040 are just more juiced
00:44:54.180 right now
00:44:54.640 and Biden's collapsing.
00:44:56.160 Was he going to win?
00:44:57.160 He was going to win
00:44:57.860 in a landslide.
00:44:58.720 Trump was headed
00:44:59.240 for a runaway election.
00:45:01.220 I honestly think
00:45:02.200 that this is more
00:45:03.140 reflecting reality.
00:45:04.500 I think Biden
00:45:05.120 would have bounced
00:45:05.660 back somewhat
00:45:06.420 and this is probably,
00:45:08.460 I mean,
00:45:09.220 it's just as likely,
00:45:11.180 let me put it this way,
00:45:12.300 it's just as likely
00:45:13.420 that this is the high point
00:45:14.760 for Kamala.
00:45:15.320 Her image is not
00:45:16.800 as favorable
00:45:17.280 as Trump's is
00:45:18.020 in our poll.
00:45:18.920 How people view her job,
00:45:20.520 you know,
00:45:20.740 her handling her role
00:45:21.480 as vice president
00:45:22.140 is not as positive
00:45:23.640 as how they now view
00:45:24.880 Donald Trump
00:45:25.540 handling his role
00:45:26.620 as president
00:45:27.160 and they trust Trump
00:45:28.500 to handle the issues
00:45:29.500 more than they trust Harris.
00:45:31.460 So while people are saying,
00:45:32.700 yeah,
00:45:32.820 I'm going to vote for her,
00:45:34.180 the support right now,
00:45:36.440 anyway,
00:45:37.060 looks soft.
00:45:37.720 Now the media,
00:45:38.820 they want to
00:45:39.240 until it's true.
00:45:41.560 This is something
00:45:42.140 that I want to throw out
00:45:43.320 as well
00:45:43.940 in terms of what you're saying
00:45:45.300 is that
00:45:45.640 she seems to be
00:45:46.740 positioning herself
00:45:47.540 as a challenger
00:45:48.540 but that's not actually true.
00:45:50.900 And something that I saw
00:45:51.960 Trump do last night
00:45:52.980 at the rally
00:45:53.680 and I'm sure his campaign
00:45:54.920 is going to pivot
00:45:55.640 towards very soon
00:45:56.620 is the fact
00:45:57.780 that she is the incumbent.
00:45:59.220 She is the incumbent
00:46:00.420 vice president.
00:46:02.120 She's associated
00:46:02.820 with everything
00:46:03.540 this administration has done.
00:46:05.140 Yes,
00:46:05.380 a lot of people
00:46:05.960 place the blame,
00:46:06.800 rightfully so,
00:46:07.340 on Joe Biden
00:46:07.840 but she's been there
00:46:08.900 every step of the way
00:46:10.540 holding his cream peas
00:46:12.740 and his stewed cabbage
00:46:14.620 and look,
00:46:16.340 if she's got these
00:46:17.180 wonderful ideas
00:46:18.020 for the country,
00:46:18.920 why don't you do it
00:46:19.780 right now,
00:46:20.320 Kamala Harris?
00:46:21.140 You're the one
00:46:21.800 who's in office.
00:46:24.120 There's something
00:46:25.280 that was a finding
00:46:26.120 in the poll
00:46:26.540 that really surprised me
00:46:27.720 how potent
00:46:28.420 really the attack
00:46:29.900 or her vulnerability
00:46:30.820 is
00:46:31.480 with the fact
00:46:32.480 that voters believe
00:46:34.680 that of course
00:46:35.360 she knew about
00:46:36.100 Joe Biden's decline
00:46:37.200 and they were lied to.
00:46:39.060 So that actually
00:46:39.700 turned out to be
00:46:40.440 a much more potent
00:46:41.440 attack than I thought.
00:46:43.100 What didn't
00:46:43.720 is immigration
00:46:45.840 and I'm going to
00:46:46.480 tell you why.
00:46:47.560 Even though he leads
00:46:48.640 by the biggest margin
00:46:49.640 on trust to handle
00:46:50.580 issues on immigration.
00:46:52.460 The reason why
00:46:53.320 is because
00:46:54.240 not a significant
00:46:56.180 number of voters
00:46:57.120 understand
00:46:57.780 that Joe Biden
00:46:59.220 named her
00:47:00.100 as the borders are
00:47:00.820 and put her in charge
00:47:01.620 of getting the crisis
00:47:02.600 at the border
00:47:03.120 under control.
00:47:04.060 This explained
00:47:05.080 to me immediately
00:47:06.020 why the media
00:47:06.920 rushed to wipe
00:47:08.420 everything
00:47:09.300 mentioning her
00:47:10.080 as a border czar
00:47:10.820 from the history books
00:47:11.820 and they tried
00:47:12.780 to rewrite
00:47:13.420 her role
00:47:15.540 in getting the border
00:47:16.880 under control
00:47:17.520 because I guarantee
00:47:18.580 you when Democrats
00:47:19.660 did that last round
00:47:20.640 of polling
00:47:21.000 before they threw
00:47:21.660 Biden out
00:47:22.380 they did all
00:47:23.620 of this testing
00:47:24.320 and they saw
00:47:25.200 what I saw
00:47:25.740 which is like 36%
00:47:27.360 know that Kamala Harris
00:47:28.860 was the border czar
00:47:29.760 and that was her job
00:47:31.020 to get the border
00:47:31.520 under control.
00:47:32.460 Everyone else
00:47:33.020 does not.
00:47:33.680 So it's an incredible
00:47:35.540 like opportunity
00:47:36.620 to put this
00:47:37.920 it kind of reminds me
00:47:38.940 of Gerald Ford
00:47:39.720 Jack right
00:47:40.460 Gerald Ford
00:47:41.680 tried very hard
00:47:42.580 to get out
00:47:43.040 from underneath
00:47:43.540 the shadow
00:47:44.100 of the Nixon
00:47:44.960 administration
00:47:45.500 and you just
00:47:46.720 can't
00:47:47.520 you know
00:47:47.780 because you are
00:47:48.500 of course
00:47:49.000 part of it
00:47:49.880 you're their
00:47:50.300 vice president
00:47:51.180 so I just
00:47:52.520 you know
00:47:53.460 I think that
00:47:54.180 you know
00:47:54.420 last question
00:47:55.460 Rich
00:47:55.800 we got one
00:47:56.580 minute here
00:47:57.260 last question
00:47:59.120 does it
00:48:00.420 does it help
00:48:01.760 her
00:48:02.280 if Joe Biden
00:48:04.060 drops as president
00:48:05.300 and she becomes
00:48:06.140 the acting president
00:48:07.480 as we go into
00:48:08.180 November
00:48:08.500 you know
00:48:09.600 it should
00:48:10.400 from a historical
00:48:11.360 and empirical evidence
00:48:12.580 point of view
00:48:13.160 it should
00:48:13.780 because then
00:48:14.440 she would be
00:48:14.920 the sitting incumbent
00:48:16.140 and it would be
00:48:16.940 her own
00:48:17.700 and it could
00:48:18.820 give her the
00:48:19.180 opportunity
00:48:19.640 to tell her
00:48:20.380 own story
00:48:20.880 and do her
00:48:21.400 own
00:48:21.640 you know
00:48:22.080 make her own
00:48:23.040 image
00:48:23.740 that being said
00:48:25.000 nobody has ever
00:48:25.960 accused Kamala Harris
00:48:26.860 of running anything
00:48:27.580 competently in her life
00:48:28.880 that could backfire
00:48:30.120 so of course
00:48:31.040 you'll have the media
00:48:31.740 on her side
00:48:32.780 but it's risky
00:48:34.100 very risky
00:48:35.280 I'm surprised
00:48:36.080 they haven't done it
00:48:36.660 a whole thing's a risk
00:48:37.440 where can people
00:48:37.920 find you rich
00:48:38.480 to get more on that
00:48:39.500 and everything you're
00:48:39.960 working on
00:48:40.380 peoplespundit.locals.com
00:48:43.140 you can link there
00:48:44.000 to the public polling
00:48:44.840 project
00:48:45.280 go check it out
00:48:46.040 go look at the new poll
00:48:46.920 and of course
00:48:47.780 share share share
00:48:48.880 far and wide
00:48:49.660 thanks brother
00:48:50.360 ladies and gentlemen
00:48:51.540 as always
00:48:52.020 you can have my
00:48:52.700 permission
00:48:53.060 to lay ashore
00:48:53.620 go check it out
00:48:54.060 bye
00:48:54.720 you