Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - THOUGHTCRIME： The Wisconsin Election Special

00:00:00.940 From the age of Big Brother.

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00:00:22.380 Hello, everyone.

00:00:24.300 Welcome to the Wisconsin Election Special.

00:00:26.340 I am taking advantage of my big opportunity to wear all of my favorite Green Bay Packers stuff.

00:00:31.980 I am here right now with Tyler Bowyer of Turning Point Action.

00:00:36.580 What's up, Blake? How are you doing?

00:00:37.880 We're doing great. We're doing great.

00:00:39.160 Hopefully we'll be doing great all night, but for now we're definitely doing great.

00:00:43.360 Charlie will be joining us in just a few minutes.

00:00:46.300 Any minute.

00:00:46.600 Charlie will be here, and we should have Jack Posobiec later tonight as well, I believe.

00:00:50.420 Yeah, Jack will be joining just about the same time Charlie should be.

00:00:53.540 All righty. So, but for now, we're going to open up shop.

00:00:57.040 We're here, of course, to cover the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, the most important election of 2025, we've been saying.

00:01:04.280 We also, of course, have results out of Florida.

00:01:06.760 Those are already in, so I guess for those who haven't heard them yet, we should hit that first.

00:01:11.480 We have two special elections in Florida.

00:01:13.540 Florida, people were sweating that a bit over the past few weeks, like, oh, are we going to somehow drop this against the odds?

00:01:21.260 And the answer is no, we did not drop them against the odds.

00:01:24.520 So we have very good news if you guys haven't seen that yet.

00:01:27.960 We have the results in Florida.

00:01:30.180 Randy Fine has won easily in District 6, and Jimmy Patronis has won very easily in District 1.

00:01:37.940 Both of those, they're not fully in yet, but they're up by about 14 in each of those districts.

00:01:43.740 Yeah.

00:01:43.960 You said you had some stuff you wanted to say about those, Tyler?

00:01:46.200 Yeah, yeah.

00:01:46.720 And this is a good breakdown just for everybody.

00:01:48.780 So Florida just ended up being kind of a snoozer.

00:01:51.580 There was a little bit of a drama that happened, so to kind of tee all this up.

00:01:55.160 So you have two districts that were up.

00:01:58.500 You have 6 and 1.

00:02:00.920 Both were vacated by members of Congress.

00:02:03.980 The one that's a little bit more famous, well-known, is CD1 with Matt Gaetz, because you know Matt Gaetz.

00:02:09.420 But the other district is actually Ron DeSantis' old district.

00:02:13.140 And whose district just got vacated for?

00:02:16.880 What are you talking about?

00:02:17.400 Or who just left the seat?

00:02:18.640 Oh, that was, why am I spacing right now?

00:02:21.940 Because you want to forget about it, because it's our signal man, Mike Waltz.

00:02:26.400 Yeah, Mike Waltz.

00:02:27.140 Yeah, Mike Waltz.

00:02:27.680 Oh, yeah, Mike Waltz.

00:02:28.500 The most famous guy of the week.

00:02:29.980 Yes, exactly.

00:02:30.780 So Mike Waltz had taken over for Ron DeSantis when Ron DeSantis vacated that district,

00:02:36.420 or what was the majority of that district when he ran for governor.

00:02:40.440 And then, obviously, Matt Gaetz' district is CD1, which has always kind of been the same general area,

00:02:47.480 because that's the panhandle.

00:02:48.780 So looking at a map of Florida and pulling it up,

00:02:53.080 Congressional District 1 has always historically been that top left-hand corner of the state,

00:02:58.560 which is a really interesting part of Florida, because this is Central Standard Time.

00:03:03.940 So their election actually ended an hour after the CD6, the Waltz district, ended.

00:03:10.380 And so you had, you know, basically Floridians on two different time zones.

00:03:16.520 And the breaking point, I think, is right there at Walton County, which is where Matt Gaetz grew up and all that.

00:03:23.380 And that's, I think, about half of that county is inside CD1.

00:03:26.380 So both of these sailed to victory.

00:03:31.460 CD6, they were kind of up in arms this last week.

00:03:34.080 Republicans were freaking out, saying, oh, my gosh.

00:03:37.580 Mainly it was because the consultants were seeing how much money that the Democrat was fundraising.

00:03:41.860 Yeah, it was a huge funding gap.

00:03:43.500 I think we had maybe under a million, and they had three million plus, I think.

00:03:47.920 That's right.

00:03:48.240 And so it was cause for concern, because a lot of these districts don't really take that much money.

00:03:53.580 Again, Freedom Caucus member Ron DeSantis was from that district.

00:03:59.600 It's a very deep red district.

00:04:01.420 Again, plus 30 district.

00:04:02.920 Trump won by plus 30.

00:04:04.960 Matt Gaetz district, very red.

00:04:07.100 These shouldn't be concerns at all, but they were getting a little bit sweaty under the cause last week.

00:04:12.560 Mainly because a lot of people, and a lot of people, Randy Fine, he's not as dynamic as you would probably, like, cast a Trump, right?

00:04:24.020 So, or a Ron DeSantis, even.

00:04:27.100 He's probably not as conservative, just outspokenly, as those guys.

00:04:32.380 So a lot of people were a little bit aggressive and angry, saying, oh, we should have read someone more conservative.

00:04:38.880 They got people more excited.

00:04:39.920 Um, and it turns out, you know, it's probably going to be, uh, he's probably going to win by 15 points.

00:04:45.980 Yeah.

00:04:46.460 And so I guess that's the first thing we should talk about.

00:04:49.000 So let's, uh, let's go to my screen here.

00:04:51.500 Uh, and so this is the result in Florida's first congressional district, uh, last November.

00:04:59.120 So as you said, one by about 30, Matt Gaetz got exactly 66% of the vote.

00:05:03.220 His opponent, uh, excellently named Gay Valamont.

00:05:07.200 Uh, Gay Valamont got 34% of the vote.

00:05:10.360 This is just last, uh, November.

00:05:13.160 And it's about the same in Florida's sixth district.

00:05:15.880 So now looking tonight, we have in the first district, Jimmy, Jimmy Petronas, same opponent,

00:05:21.680 Gay Valamont.

00:05:22.360 And right now it's 56.7% to 42 and a half percent.

00:05:27.440 So as we said, that's close to 15 points, but that is going to be less than half of our margin

00:05:34.720 in, uh, just a few months ago.

00:05:37.500 So should we worry about that?

00:05:39.860 We were talking to Charlie about this a bit earlier and his take was special elections are

00:05:44.220 weird.

00:05:44.940 Just don't lose.

00:05:46.460 Move on.

00:05:47.420 Yeah.

00:05:47.880 I mean, there's still, uh, a decent amount of, of votes to count, but I think it's going

00:05:54.160 to end up being about 95% in, so not too much movement.

00:05:57.560 I guess we're probably another 5,000 votes, 6,000 votes outstanding.

00:06:02.520 Also just to demonstrate what we've said on our show a lot is these are pure turnout battles,

00:06:07.880 100% down to turnout because right now with about 95% of the vote in, we have 164,600 total

00:06:16.920 votes reported.

00:06:17.740 So Petronas is going to win this with 93,400 votes approximately.

00:06:23.540 Now let's compare that to last election where last election gave Alamont lost, lost by 30

00:06:31.100 points with 141,000 votes.

00:06:34.840 So we're going to win this easily with like 50,000 votes less than the Democrat got crushed

00:06:41.080 getting just a few months ago.

00:06:43.060 These are pure turnout elections.

00:06:45.400 And so that would probably be the easiest thing is Democrats are very fired up there.

00:06:50.220 They wanted to make this a referendum on Musk.

00:06:52.200 They wanted to make this a referendum on Doge.

00:06:54.140 They wanted to channel their anger into something.

00:06:57.220 So they raised a ton of money for this race.

00:07:00.000 Right.

00:07:00.440 And so they're going to be fired up.

00:07:02.580 So it's good if we can still beat them badly, but we should still, I shouldn't, I don't

00:07:08.040 think we should just wave off that we lost by or not lost, but that we, that we shed 15

00:07:12.800 points from our margin in a few months.

00:07:16.580 Yeah.

00:07:17.100 I mean, the situation that is with the, again, with these districts is that they're, they're

00:07:22.820 fairly deep red.

00:07:23.840 So what ends up happening in, in these areas is that people get complacent.

00:07:28.760 They go, Oh, you know, Jimmy's going to win.

00:07:32.060 I don't need to show up.

00:07:33.220 Right.

00:07:33.540 And, and they get a little bit more fired up as Democrats going, yeah, Trump's in the

00:07:38.140 white house.

00:07:38.720 You got to show up.

00:07:39.980 So you have that.

00:07:41.720 That's the kind of the tea party S thing.

00:07:43.800 I, I think the thing that we want, we should be reading here in this is that, uh, the Democrats

00:07:50.040 aren't nearly as fired up as they need to be in order to, uh, in, in order to create some

00:07:57.740 kind of political tirade or, you know, the kind of storm, you know, I won't, I won't cuss,

00:08:02.780 but the, but the turd storm that they want to create for Trump, they seem very fractured,

00:08:08.980 not focused.

00:08:10.060 I mean, there's not, well, it's not like today has like 50 elections going on today.

00:08:13.380 There's three elections, right?

00:08:15.240 And they were feeling really good.

00:08:16.480 That's why they raised all that money in CD six, uh, against Randy fine.

00:08:21.680 And nothing came out of that.

00:08:23.920 Nothing.

00:08:24.340 I mean, they basically got nothing out of that.

00:08:26.940 They, the, the, the turnout at CD one, nobody was worried about, right?

00:08:30.880 They didn't raise insane amounts of money.

00:08:33.440 It's going to be about the same result, which is like a plus 15.

00:08:37.420 This is not a massive reaction, uh, to Trump.

00:08:43.060 Now we do have, we do have Wisconsin coming up here and this is going to be the interesting

00:08:48.400 part where we rock and roll tonight is to see what does it look like from Democrat maximum

00:08:56.040 effort and these talking points against president Trump against Elon Musk.

00:09:00.480 You know, obviously we all know Elon was in Wisconsin this week, uh, spent two days campaigning,

00:09:06.360 uh, going out and talking to people, uh, getting people signed up through his, uh, America PAC

00:09:13.400 portal.

00:09:14.700 Uh, but they, uh, they will have, this will be a total referendum on all of those feelings

00:09:22.380 that we just got out of the 2024 election.

00:09:24.580 And we've got some really interesting things happening on the ground.

00:09:27.240 I mean, we're seeing things up live.

00:09:28.780 We have turning point action as this huge field team that's on the ground.

00:09:31.540 We're gonna be talking about it all night.

00:09:32.840 We're going to be joined by many people that we have that are inside the belly of the beast

00:09:37.540 in Wisconsin.

00:09:38.940 Uh, this thing could end up being a barn burner throughout the night.

00:09:43.720 Uh, if you know, the turnout expectations, uh, of what we saw and what we're hearing across

00:09:50.180 the state really do come true.

00:09:51.880 I have a friend who he flew in from DC to be a monitor there.

00:09:56.060 And he said the turnout for a, you know, an off election in Wisconsin is absolutely insane.

00:10:02.440 Uh, this is very different from Florida in Florida.

00:10:05.180 Democrats raised a ton of money.

00:10:06.900 And so we late in the cycle, sweat a little bit and put some effort into it late Wisconsin.

00:10:12.820 Both of us have understood.

00:10:14.120 This is a very important race.

00:10:15.300 We knew this race was coming up.

00:10:16.660 It's not a special election.

00:10:17.660 It's just an annual election for Supreme court.

00:10:20.280 Well, yeah, they can be special.

00:10:22.980 A lot of them end up being special.

00:10:24.740 Uh, but, but Wisconsin is really interesting because what they do is they have a traditional

00:10:29.100 spring elections.

00:10:30.260 So those Wisconsinites that we have in the chat, everyone that's listening at home knows

00:10:34.500 this, there are spring elections and then there are fall elections, basically primary

00:10:39.440 elections.

00:10:39.860 And those are important elections for, you know, again, Supreme court races, things like

00:10:46.080 that.

00:10:46.640 Having them in an off election cycle year, uh, is not great because, you know, you have

00:10:53.060 these, these elections that happen.

00:10:55.820 Uh, sometimes they're consolidated with other things like presidential preferences and things

00:10:59.660 like that, that you get higher turnout typically.

00:11:01.380 What's crazy about this Blake is that some of those past Supreme court races that have

00:11:06.440 been held in the spring, uh, have been combined with those things.

00:11:10.040 And we're likely to see a higher turnout this time immediately following the presidential

00:11:14.380 election, which is, which is really interesting.

00:11:17.740 It's, it's a, it's, it's a, it's a blip on the map of way off the normal radar.

00:11:22.900 Uh, but yeah, we're going to see some, we have already some stuff.

00:11:25.780 I've got a whole list of things here to talk about and to go through.

00:11:28.820 We're going to go through the maps.

00:11:29.600 We're going to get into the specific areas.

00:11:31.980 I just flew back in from Wisconsin.

00:11:34.000 Uh, I got in technically today cause it was after midnight, uh, flew late last night.

00:11:39.380 We, our entire team has been on the ground pounding.

00:11:42.440 Polls are closing here in 15 minutes, 15 minutes.

00:11:45.540 And so the poll, as the polling places close, we're going to be going live with Charlie waiting

00:11:50.540 for those results.

00:11:51.340 We're expecting those results.

00:11:52.340 It'll be a lot more dry in Florida.

00:11:53.700 We had that benefit where Florida just to style in every other state, they get all their votes

00:11:58.020 counted in about an hour.

00:11:59.460 They count their early vote beforehand and they can just release it as soon as the polls

00:12:03.380 closed.

00:12:03.940 So we had 65% of the vote was basically tallied within a half hour and it hasn't taken long

00:12:09.560 to do the rest.

00:12:10.280 Wisconsin, it's going to be like it was election night drawn out.

00:12:14.360 We'll be getting it County by County very slowly.

00:12:17.660 And if it's a close race, we're not going to know till very late, maybe tomorrow.

00:12:21.760 Uh, if it's a bloodbath, of course, not as good.

00:12:25.200 Well, and, and I want to, I want to tee all this up for everybody that's listening at home.

00:12:28.560 You guys are getting the pregame show here before Charlie steps in and just a few minutes.

00:12:33.220 Uh, we're expecting Charlie any minute now, Jack Posobiec will be joining us any minute

00:12:37.020 now, but the, the pregame is this, and this is the entire, uh, breakdown and we'll get into

00:12:43.700 the maps.

00:12:44.100 I don't, do you have one of the Wisconsin maps pulled up real quick?

00:12:46.100 Uh, sure, sure.

00:12:47.280 Why don't, why don't we go through this?

00:12:48.460 So you guys get a good idea.

00:12:49.560 There's basically, uh, a way to look at this in Wisconsin.

00:12:53.300 You have, so I've got, uh, yeah, we can put up here.

00:12:55.800 We don't have any results in yet, but we can get a blank map of Wisconsin.

00:12:59.320 We're going to zoom into some specific areas here.

00:13:01.440 So I'll have you zoom in if we want to pull that up on the stream.

00:13:04.920 Uh, and you have to say the magic words.

00:13:07.020 Go to me.

00:13:08.180 Let's go to Blake.

00:13:09.480 So there's the state of Wisconsin as we're going in and before results are released, we should

00:13:13.940 be seeing some initial results as early as about an hour after polls close.

00:13:19.020 That's going to be 9 PM, uh, central standard time or central daylight.

00:13:23.700 What are we on daylight time?

00:13:25.140 We are on daylight savings time.

00:13:26.840 Okay.

00:13:27.660 So central, except in Arizona, daylight savings time.

00:13:30.320 Uh, so central time, uh, about 10 PM, uh, Eastern.

00:13:35.080 So, uh, here in Arizona, we will be at about 7 PM.

00:13:39.780 So on the, on the, on the West coast, there's two.

00:13:44.440 Ways to look at Wisconsin.

00:13:46.360 There's two major pockets.

00:13:47.660 One is you have the Milwaukee wow area.

00:13:49.720 So if you zoom into Milwaukee, we have Waukesha for those that aren't familiar.

00:13:54.100 This is, yeah.

00:13:54.820 So we've got, uh, our headquarters is actually right in Waukesha.

00:13:58.520 Uh, I don't know if you're, are you able to zoom in, uh, look at the counties a little

00:14:02.080 closer, more closely, but we can, we can just do it manually like this.

00:14:05.560 So we have Waukesha.

00:14:06.600 This is directly West of Milwaukee.

00:14:08.740 Yeah.

00:14:09.340 So Waukesha County is right on the border.

00:14:11.660 This is kind of your traditional, uh, this is your Western, uh, suburb of Milwaukee.

00:14:17.880 So as Milwaukee is right up against the lake, as you go out further, it gets more conservative,

00:14:23.360 more conservative.

00:14:25.220 Milwaukee has been, you know, your Wauwatosa that's right on the border of Waukesha.

00:14:31.020 And Waukesha is, uh, a deep red, you would consider this a deep red county.

00:14:35.880 Historically it's been deep red.

00:14:36.980 It's a suburban, rural county.

00:14:38.760 It has some very rural parts to it.

00:14:40.480 Super sub, suburby.

00:14:41.800 Let me, let me bring up how it voted in, uh, the last selection.

00:14:45.040 Let's bring that up here.

00:14:45.720 Uh, so this is the dub, the first W in the wow counties.

00:14:49.640 So you have Waukesha, Ozaukee County, and then you have Washington County.

00:14:54.960 All three of these counties are what can offset Milwaukee.

00:14:58.640 Milwaukee.

00:14:59.560 So you have deep blue Milwaukee County that we know is, is, you know, inner city, which

00:15:05.360 is not huge.

00:15:06.220 It's not a huge inner city, but it's an inner city nonetheless.

00:15:09.320 And that's deep blue.

00:15:10.420 And then you have the three red counties that are around it.

00:15:12.680 This, if the red counties can offset Milwaukee, you're in good shape.

00:15:16.560 We're trending towards that.

00:15:18.660 So we, we, the pundits believe that the data experts believe we're looking at this with

00:15:23.340 our data team at turning point action.

00:15:24.880 We believe we're trending towards that.

00:15:26.980 So that's step one, victory one.

00:15:29.780 Step two that we'll get into that we have to keep our eye on tonight is Dane County.

00:15:35.000 Dane County is the home to university, Wisconsin, Madison.

00:15:38.460 We spent a ton of time there.

00:15:40.740 Uh, that is the historical epicenter for all things, Wisconsin, uh, sports, right?

00:15:47.560 So you, you look at that, I don't think it's all things, Wisconsin sports.

00:15:51.520 Well, I mean, I would, I would argue that a lot of Wisconsinites, they, I mean, they really

00:15:55.620 value Badger football, uh, you know, outside of, you have your Packers fans, which is again,

00:16:03.980 Green Bay is outside of the Milwaukee metro area.

00:16:06.480 So Milwaukee is not really looked to the same outside.

00:16:09.660 I mean, you have the Brewers who are really outside of the main part of the city.

00:16:14.700 You have downtown, you have the Bucks are probably the least popular out of everybody.

00:16:18.880 You have Packer fans, but then you have all things, university of Wisconsin, Madison, uh,

00:16:24.700 you know, historic national champions, uh, all of that, that are there in Madison.

00:16:30.760 This space in Dane County is the deepest blue, scariest, most heavily populated place in all

00:16:38.080 of Wisconsin.

00:16:39.360 So two things.

00:16:40.400 So I'm just looking at it now.

00:16:41.800 And so Waukesha, so as we were saying, deep red County, we won it by 20 points in just a

00:16:48.120 few months ago.

00:16:48.700 And so we'll want to watch that if that's 50, 50, not a good sign for us.

00:16:52.520 Uh, Madison, 75, 23.

00:16:56.320 And that was a good day.

00:16:58.080 Yeah.

00:16:58.320 That was a good day for us.

00:16:59.740 That's, that's Dane is, it's really incredible.

00:17:02.540 It's incredible how blue Dane County is considering it's not an urban core.

00:17:07.220 It is the entire metro area of Madison.

00:17:09.460 That's right.

00:17:09.820 You very rarely see an entire metro area.

00:17:12.520 That's that blue.

00:17:13.740 Uh, but we have a thing.

00:17:15.180 Uh, Andrew just sent us this.

00:17:16.620 Uh, this is Scott Pressler just tweeted this.

00:17:19.040 He says counties are in fact running out of ballots.

00:17:22.420 In Wisconsin, more ballots are being delivered.

00:17:25.660 If you are in Washington, Waukesha or rock counties, I encourage you to visit your polling

00:17:30.860 location and tell everyone to stay in line record turnout.

00:17:35.180 Have you heard anything to this effect, Tyler?

00:17:36.740 Yeah.

00:17:37.060 There, and there, it's not just there too.

00:17:38.400 They're also running out of them in Milwaukee County.

00:17:41.020 So we've had reports again in the Milwaukee.

00:17:45.340 Wow.

00:17:45.820 Area of lots of things.

00:17:48.160 If you're in line and this is really important, we have nine minutes left.

00:17:52.960 If you're nine minutes away, drive to your polling place.

00:17:55.700 You can stay in line, legally stay in line and they have to service you and be, they can't

00:18:01.020 shut you down, kick you out, all that stuff.

00:18:02.780 You want your line, stay in line.

00:18:04.400 You, they have to let you vote.

00:18:05.340 Um, and so that's, that's updated news.

00:18:08.140 But again, let's go back to Dane County.

00:18:10.400 Dane County is your second tier part of this entire puzzle tonight.

00:18:15.180 Dane County has to be offset by the rest of the state.

00:18:18.240 It's not just Dane County.

00:18:20.160 Dane County.

00:18:20.900 If you look at the map, uh, the election map for Wisconsin, uh, with, with everything

00:18:26.740 going on in the Supreme court, historically, especially during the Supreme court race, the

00:18:31.360 South, the South central part of the state that, that, that borders, uh, down below, that

00:18:38.500 is, uh, a real bad area for Republicans.

00:18:42.640 So you've got Iowa County, you've got Sauk County, you've got Columbia, you've got Rock

00:18:49.720 County, you've got Greene County, Lafayette, and then the border ones, the Western ones,

00:18:55.440 Crawford, uh, which is unfortunate because, you know, Crawford County, Susan Crawford is the

00:19:00.680 opponent for Brad Shummel.

00:19:01.740 We'll get into the candidates in just a little bit.

00:19:03.980 Vernon and Grant have sometimes been a little bit, uh, too light pink or, uh, very light

00:19:11.320 blue.

00:19:12.440 Uh, yeah.

00:19:13.020 Oh yeah.

00:19:13.340 Yeah.

00:19:13.520 You can put my computer up here.

00:19:14.640 Yeah.

00:19:14.840 So we're looking at some of these.

00:19:16.200 Yeah.

00:19:16.300 You mentioned Crawford.

00:19:17.620 So these are a lot of those, I can't remember what the term they for them was, but these are

00:19:21.600 the counties that voted for Obama often by a quite big margin.

00:19:24.940 These counties along those in Mississippi river.

00:19:27.140 And then they swung towards Trump.

00:19:28.800 I think they swung back to Biden again now back to Trump and he did do pretty well.

00:19:33.980 Uh, Grand County, Trump won by 18 points.

00:19:37.480 Uh, Crawford County, Trump won by 14 points.

00:19:40.700 Uh, Rock County, he lost by seven points, but I have to imagine that was a much bluer County

00:19:46.760 in the past.

00:19:47.600 I would presume.

00:19:48.480 Yeah.

00:19:48.760 And again, this is the trouble area for Republicans because you would think some of these rural,

00:19:53.380 I mean, these are very rural.

00:19:54.360 Some of these are very rural counties, they don't have a ton going on in them that huge

00:19:58.500 population, but all of it stacks up.

00:20:01.580 Um, and it really eats away at your ability.

00:20:04.720 Again, it's the Madison effect.

00:20:06.420 So you've got this ring around Madison and these, and these different counties that are

00:20:10.680 there.

00:20:11.180 And you, I mean, Jefferson County, Rock County, uh, how about, uh, I saw some chatter today

00:20:17.140 that turnout was not high enough in Kenosha County.

00:20:19.780 Did you hear about that?

00:20:20.940 Yeah, we'll get into that in just a second.

00:20:22.460 Cause that's the, that's kind of the third part here, or I won't say third part, but this,

00:20:26.780 this plays into the Dane County, everything else, the rest of the state, Republicans have

00:20:31.440 to do really well out to offset Dane.

00:20:33.840 So your Milwaukee, well, we'll pull that out.

00:20:36.380 So what are the places that we have to do?

00:20:37.920 Well, we have to do well in Kenosha County.

00:20:41.400 We have to do well in Racine, uh, Racine, we have to do well in Green Bay, uh, you know,

00:20:48.400 home of the Packers, Brown County, uh, home of Dixon and his Packers.

00:20:53.900 Uh, and of course, Brett Galaszewski, who's a season ticket holder and owner, uh, of the,

00:21:00.340 uh, yeah, he fell for the ownership scam.

00:21:03.440 No, he's a minority owner.

00:21:04.900 He's got the certificate on the wall.

00:21:06.700 He's got that non-dividend paying certificate.

00:21:08.820 And, and, and then you've got Door County that's right there too.

00:21:12.400 That's historically the, the, the bluest county, right?

00:21:15.820 No, I mean, it's historically been pretty light blue for a long time, but, uh, you've got all

00:21:22.080 that.

00:21:22.380 So you've got to upset in a big way with turnout.

00:21:27.320 You ever seen Kenosha Green Bay has to really show up big time to help really offset that Dane

00:21:34.640 County disaster that we've got.

00:21:36.320 But again, it's not just Dane County for those who are listening.

00:21:39.280 Everybody's learning stuff here.

00:21:40.800 This is also the other counties that are around Dane County.

00:21:44.420 So we're going to have Brandon, uh, who is our, uh, turning point action manager.

00:21:49.540 He's also the chairman.

00:21:50.900 Brandon Malley is the chairman of the Republican party of Dane County has done a good job.

00:21:54.740 You just brought up the numbers that came back.

00:21:57.380 Trump won that at 23%.

00:21:59.120 Okay.

00:22:00.760 Trump won 23% of Dane County.

00:22:03.020 Think about how low that is.

00:22:04.400 I mean, a state like Wisconsin, you drive, if you've been through Wisconsin, you drive,

00:22:07.840 I drive through that state all the time.

00:22:09.240 And I'm like, I cannot figure out how the state ever votes for Democrats.

00:22:13.180 I can't figure it out.

00:22:14.340 But then you pull into Dane County.

00:22:15.900 You're like, Oh, I get it.

00:22:17.960 There's a lot of, it really is shockingly blue.

00:22:21.520 There's a lot of Karens here.

00:22:22.760 Yeah.

00:22:23.520 It's Karen.

00:22:24.060 We're not, we're not going to use Karen.

00:22:25.780 That is Karen.

00:22:26.500 It's Karen country.

00:22:27.080 We're not going to use the Karen slur, man.

00:22:28.820 That's, that's a lib label.

00:22:30.080 It's not that.

00:22:31.180 That's it.

00:22:31.460 She's their Karens.

00:22:32.680 They're lib Karens that are there.

00:22:34.420 And I'm telling you right now, that is going to be the place that can be our undoing.

00:22:39.740 I think Milwaukee.

00:22:40.860 Wow.

00:22:41.160 Area.

00:22:41.820 We're going to, we're going to be set.

00:22:43.080 This is my prediction for tonight.

00:22:44.440 Before Charlie jumps on here, my prediction is that the Milwaukee Wow area, we're going

00:22:49.020 to be doing okay.

00:22:50.540 We're going to do the job.

00:22:52.120 That's where turning point has put all of our, most of our operation was in a Waukesha.

00:22:57.400 Again, that's where our headquarters is.

00:22:58.980 We turned out as much of that deep red vote that typically doesn't show up.

00:23:02.600 And we'll talk about the low propensity voters all night.

00:23:05.180 Our low propensity numbers and early votes, we felt really good about.

00:23:08.940 Uh, the Democrats did not feel as good about their low propensity vote turnout in earlies.

00:23:15.640 They didn't have as successful of an early vote.

00:23:18.820 So this is all coming down to today, election day.

00:23:22.440 Can we get all these votes out?

00:23:25.080 All right.

00:23:26.100 Um, because we are live, uh, Valesco 16 donated $5 to say that I look like a mid Benjamin, Benjamin

00:23:32.840 Bunn with my Packers get up.

00:23:34.860 So thank you, Valesco or Valsico.

00:23:38.420 Valsico.

00:23:39.840 So you can join, you can join the conversation all night, by the way.

00:23:43.040 Yep.

00:23:43.420 Anyone that submits, we, Blake has to read whatever you said.

00:23:47.600 I have to, I'm training you guys to also want to read them.

00:23:50.780 So my reaction to that was that wasn't a good enough of, uh, you know, of a diss, a direct

00:23:57.380 diss to Blake's face.

00:23:58.680 Ooh, it sounds like Tyler's begging for people to diss him.

00:24:01.800 What can we, what can we get?

00:24:03.540 So yeah, we're, polls are closing in two minutes.

00:24:05.880 We have two minutes guys.

00:24:06.960 Charlie joining us very soon.

00:24:09.140 Obviously he's, he's involved in a lot.

00:24:11.800 So he is joining us as soon as he is able, but.

00:24:15.440 And we've got all of our Wisconsin gear.

00:24:17.620 So going back to this, this thing, we're going to be pulling up.

00:24:20.800 Um, you can expect within the next 30 to 45 minutes, you're going to, we're going to start

00:24:25.700 to see some, uh, results start trickling in.

00:24:29.540 Um, let's go through some, some things before Charlie gets here.

00:24:33.200 We did hear that we had in, in, in, in some, you know, reporting from across the state, turnout

00:24:42.560 looked like it was good.

00:24:43.940 Uh, the, the, the clerk of Washington County.

00:24:47.700 So go back to the wow, Milwaukee wow.

00:24:50.040 Wow.

00:24:50.440 Is Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington County.

00:24:54.100 Those four make up your four counties in the Milwaukee area.

00:24:57.260 Uh, Washington County is expecting record turnout today.

00:25:03.520 Uh, it was two hours ago.

00:25:06.440 Uh, I think she posted that there was over 70% turnout expected for today.

00:25:13.680 That's high.

00:25:14.620 That's a massive number.

00:25:15.860 That is.

00:25:16.120 I think the highest, I think she posted the next highest in recent years was 55%.

00:25:21.520 That is insane.

00:25:22.680 Yeah.

00:25:23.180 So that's a good sign.

00:25:25.480 So that's, that's sign number one, Washington and Waukesha have good turnout.

00:25:30.200 That's good for Brad Schimmel.

00:25:32.460 Uh, Ozaukee has been one of these historical areas.

00:25:36.140 So Ozaukee is the Northern part of, of just North of Milwaukee.

00:25:41.700 Ozaukee has been underperforming significantly and dramatically of the last number of election

00:25:46.880 cycles.

00:25:47.380 Uh, so we, we're being joined by the RAV audience.

00:25:49.980 So welcome to everyone on RAV.

00:25:51.920 Welcome to the, uh, thought crime live stream of the Wisconsin special election.

00:25:58.120 We're waiting here.

00:25:59.000 Oh, 10 seconds.

00:26:00.260 Ah, okay.

00:26:01.380 All right.

00:26:01.780 Nevermind practice.

00:26:02.640 Five seconds.

00:26:03.100 All right.

00:26:03.360 Everyone gets to hear it twice.

00:26:04.220 Now we go again.

00:26:05.020 All right.

00:26:05.820 Uh, welcome to the RAV audience.

00:26:08.100 Welcome to the thought crime live stream of the Wisconsin special election.

00:26:12.760 I'm here with Tyler Bowyer.

00:26:14.140 Both of us are waiting on the polls to close in Wisconsin, which are closing in three, two,

00:26:20.340 one.

00:26:22.080 Now.

00:26:22.600 Okay.

00:26:22.800 Now the polls are closed in Wisconsin.

00:26:24.560 We'll be getting joined by Charlie Kirk in just, uh, really any minute.

00:26:29.060 Now we'll be having Jack Posobiec join us later as well.

00:26:31.880 If you're in Wisconsin and you're in line, stay in line.

00:26:36.260 Don't worry about our stream.

00:26:37.980 You can listen to it while you're in line.

00:26:39.680 You can watch, you can listen to it while you're voting, whatever, with your head headphones

00:26:43.820 in, like you're at a baseball game or something.

00:26:45.780 But if you're in line and let your family and friends know, stay in line.

00:26:49.700 They have to let you vote once you're in line.

00:26:52.020 So now this thing's locked down.

00:26:54.300 Polls are effectively closed.

00:26:55.700 So let's just, for the new people who just joined, let's just repeat what you said about

00:26:58.940 the, the turnout levels we're seeing compared to past.

00:27:01.380 We are seeing, yeah, we'll set this up for all of our real America's voice audience here.

00:27:06.080 We are seeing and hearing reports of record level participation today on election day,

00:27:11.880 which is good.

00:27:13.020 Uh, we are going to break down again here for everyone.

00:27:16.600 There's really two elements that exist within Wisconsin that we have to look at tonight.

00:27:21.160 We're going to look at this all throughout tonight.

00:27:22.400 You have your Milwaukee Wow area, which is Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha counties.

00:27:27.800 They're right around deep blue Milwaukee County.

00:27:31.020 And then you have Dane County, which is the deepest, darkest, you know, hole of Democrat voters

00:27:38.440 that you have to make up with the rest of the state and the rest of the state.

00:27:42.000 You can make that up in Racine and Kenosha and Green Bay, uh, and other parts, the more

00:27:49.280 rural votes across the state, which are fairly, uh, sparsely populated.

00:27:54.540 So what we're seeing and we're hearing is really good reports of turnout happening in

00:28:00.080 the suburbs.

00:28:00.960 So zoom back into Milwaukee County, Milwaukee County.

00:28:04.580 We have lines out the door.

00:28:05.560 We have lots of people.

00:28:06.420 We have reports right now from our team at Turning Point Action who have done an impeccable

00:28:10.780 job.

00:28:11.740 Turning Point Action has the largest field team that we've, we've kept on the ground.

00:28:16.100 I just got back in from Wisconsin just early, early this morning, late last night, and the

00:28:24.180 team has been grinding and busting their tail for the past really four months, uh, since

00:28:29.900 we've put people on the ground.

00:28:31.580 Now, now that polls are closed, we're stepping back and looking at this thing and we're taking

00:28:36.600 nothing for granted, making sure every single person stays in line, gets their vote counted.

00:28:41.500 We were curing votes all day.

00:28:42.920 We'll talk about what that means, but Washington County has their clerk.

00:28:48.520 That's like their chief elections person.

00:28:51.200 The chief elections person said today, Washington County, they are expecting record turnout.

00:28:57.460 That is huge for the Republican conservative Brad Schimmel.

00:29:01.920 All right.

00:29:02.760 Do we have Jack?

00:29:05.040 Yo, yo, yo, Jack.

00:29:07.360 Welcome to the stream.

00:29:08.860 How's it going?

00:29:09.400 And where's your cheese head, man?

00:29:12.780 Uh, I don't, my cheese head got all beat up.

00:29:15.540 I think, I think it's still in South Dakota somewhere, but I've got my, uh, I think this

00:29:19.160 hat is signed by Leroy Butler, hall of famer of the, uh, Packers 1996 Superbowl team.

00:29:25.120 Your, your cheese, your cheese, you know, we're, we're, we're tentatively look, we're happy

00:29:29.360 about Florida and we're, we're tentatively feeling positive towards Wisconsin.

00:29:33.840 I know reporters have been hitting me up all day, Tyler, I'm sure you as well regarding

00:29:38.380 this thing.

00:29:39.100 And we say, look, you know, I, I do think I'll just, I'll just say right, uh, right off

00:29:44.840 the bat.

00:29:45.300 I do think that there's a lot of people who pay way too much attention to try to reading,

00:29:50.180 read the tea leaves on special elections.

00:29:51.740 I think that special elections are just that they are special elections.

00:29:56.620 They are not regular elections.

00:29:58.200 They are, they are in single localities.

00:30:01.320 Uh, they are low turnout.

00:30:03.520 There's a million like parochial and home factors that can affect all of them.

00:30:08.520 Like the one in Florida six, for example, you know, congrats to our guys over there,

00:30:13.000 but there's this tendency to try to say, Oh, you know, if this goes a certain way, then

00:30:18.500 that means such and such thing for the country when in reality, like that's, that's just,

00:30:23.060 it's just not how special elections works.

00:30:24.580 And if anyone has ever worked an actual special election, I've worked tons in Pennsylvania,

00:30:28.200 you would, you would realize that's just kind of, just kind of how it is.

00:30:32.000 It's, uh, it's all in effect.

00:30:33.840 But that being said, it is an interesting way to see the deployment of the Wisconsin field

00:30:41.440 team for turning point action.

00:30:43.420 Just clearly the best field team in the entire country right now, when we see what turning

00:30:48.360 point action is able to do and was able to bring to bear across, uh, really just across

00:30:53.500 precinct after precinct.

00:30:55.000 And I've been, I was literally just on the phone with, um, uh, good friend of Edith Duffy

00:30:59.960 from, uh, from Wisconsin.

00:31:02.220 People know her.

00:31:03.100 She's on Bongino report.

00:31:04.100 Now she guest hosts and co-hosts on human events all the time.

00:31:07.460 Uh, her father, Sean Duffy, of course, with former congressman from there and now the secretary

00:31:11.460 of, of transportation.

00:31:13.220 So, you know, and even, even the people of Wisconsin saying like, you know, it's, it's

00:31:16.700 just really hard to kind of tell what Wisconsin is going to do in one of these.

00:31:20.740 So we will see tentatively things are looking positive, but we will see.

00:31:25.380 Well, and the positive vibes that everybody's throwing it here is this, and again, we'll kind

00:31:29.900 of sort this out, uh, numbers wise.

00:31:33.180 So last, last election that happened in 2023, there was a fairly weak candidate, Dan Kelly,

00:31:39.060 uh, and there was no focus placed on this race whatsoever.

00:31:42.360 There was no national help.

00:31:43.660 Again, this was Ronna McDaniel.

00:31:45.020 I remember it was very lonely.

00:31:46.320 We were talking about it on our show as, as a big deal.

00:31:48.700 And it was really, it was arguably an even bigger deal than the one we have now because

00:31:52.700 we had a conservative Wisconsin court.

00:31:55.040 So the, the conservative Wisconsin court was represented by some really strong conservatives

00:31:59.280 that had some real deep concerns about things going on in Wisconsin.

00:32:03.060 And again, Dan Kelly ran, he lost, he had basically no support.

00:32:07.860 He wasn't, he's, I mean, admittedly wasn't an exciting candidate, uh, didn't raise that

00:32:12.460 much money.

00:32:13.540 Uh, but the RNC that was Ronna McDaniel era RNC, it was, this was part of the issue, right?

00:32:19.480 It was like, everybody was like, Oh my gosh, red alert.

00:32:21.840 Like nobody cares about this stuff.

00:32:23.600 And we have a election next year in 2024 and nobody's doing anything in Wisconsin.

00:32:29.680 And that's part of what motivated us to get involved was that race was, you know, that

00:32:35.040 early loss in Wisconsin to say, Hey, we need to go open an office in Wisconsin.

00:32:39.700 We need to do things at turning point action.

00:32:41.700 God bless Charlie, because he totally agreed and was fully behind that effort.

00:32:46.280 Uh, and we've put more full-time people on the ground.

00:32:49.460 Our team is incredible.

00:32:50.560 We'll get into all the work that they're doing.

00:32:52.040 We'll showcase some of that tonight.

00:32:53.240 Uh, but that work was like, that was the red alert, red flag of things are not in good

00:33:00.640 shape.

00:33:01.920 All right.

00:33:02.840 Uh, so Charlie, can you hear me?

00:33:05.660 I can.

00:33:06.660 And, uh, I am going to go vomit for a second because I'm looking at Blake.

00:33:10.620 It's disgusting and should never be televised ever.

00:33:14.820 And so that's just, by the way, Blake, I hope, I hope the Packer faithful rise up in record

00:33:21.080 numbers.

00:33:21.520 It would, uh, well, they're not going to rise up if you say you're going to vomit.

00:33:25.840 You gotta, you gotta give us some love, Charlie.

00:33:27.900 Tonight, we gotta be Packer fans.

00:33:29.040 You've got to talk about our third, our record 13 NFL titles.

00:33:32.620 No, I, I will say this as a Bears fan.

00:33:36.360 I think Aaron Rodgers truly did summarize it.

00:33:39.360 I own you.

00:33:40.100 You guys own us.

00:33:40.860 There's just nothing.

00:33:41.820 There will be a day where the tides reverse maybe, but I got nothing like, you know, the,

00:33:47.460 the, the, the, the Michael Jordan, LeBron thing.

00:33:49.380 I had a whole debate on campus that, that I will go down to the mat on, I got nothing.

00:33:54.380 We had one good team and they were the best football team ever assembled in 1985.

00:33:59.040 Other than that, the Packers are, by every objective, objective measurement and metric

00:34:05.820 that we have, a superior franchise to the Chicago Bears.

00:34:09.320 I'm sorry.

00:34:09.840 I just, I got nothing.

00:34:11.020 That'll, that'll get the Packer faithful.

00:34:12.300 I have to live in reality.

00:34:14.000 I have to live in reality.

00:34:15.560 We, we, we, we can't do this delusional stuff, but I'm still, you know, Andrew actually sent

00:34:20.000 me a text.

00:34:20.640 He said, Charlie, just brace yourself for what you're about to see.

00:34:22.840 I'm like, what is going on here?

00:34:24.200 And this is, this is what I have to come on air for.

00:34:29.300 So hello everybody.

00:34:30.480 I believe we're on real America's voice.

00:34:32.020 Is that right?

00:34:32.740 I want to thank you guys for all of you guys on RAV and thank you to Parker and Rob for

00:34:38.000 making time tonight.

00:34:39.300 We are going to be going through some very valuable insights guys on this special election.

00:34:43.720 It is election night.

00:34:44.460 These are tough elections for those of us that are Republicans because the electorate

00:34:49.160 has significantly changed from being a high prop turnout type of elections to now low prop

00:34:55.780 elections.

00:34:56.480 We as Republicans represent people that are waiters and waitresses and taxi cab drivers

00:35:00.540 and people that are not necessarily as engaged in politics as high propensity voters.

00:35:06.600 We are going to say this, see this on full display in the great state of Wisconsin.

00:35:10.140 And if we lose in Wisconsin, it will be simply and strictly because of turnout.

00:35:15.900 We will not lose to Crawford.

00:35:17.240 We'll not lose to Soros.

00:35:18.640 We will lose to the couch.

00:35:20.200 That is what will happen.

00:35:21.320 If we win, it will be a testament to quite honestly, the grassroots muscle that I have

00:35:26.080 been so blown away and encouraged by what Tyler and Brett and Turning Point Action has

00:35:31.860 done.

00:35:32.340 We got Don Jr. there and myself a couple of weeks ago, despite feeling like death, we helped

00:35:38.300 get that done.

00:35:39.560 And so I have no idea what's going to happen tonight.

00:35:42.400 The polls suggested outside of Trafalgar that the Democrats were going to win significantly.

00:35:47.540 The D.C. consensus.

00:35:48.860 In fact, I had four or five D.C. insiders tell me that Crawford was going to win easily.

00:35:56.800 We don't know.

00:35:57.860 We have no idea if this is if this is within.

00:36:00.840 And I know there's no there's there's really no special coming close really only counts

00:36:08.660 in what horseshoes and hand grenades is what they used to say only comes close in horseshoes

00:36:12.260 or hand grenades.

00:36:13.520 However, there will be a remarkable story if this is sub two points, not one that I want.

00:36:19.940 You guys are not going to care about that.

00:36:21.760 But in order for us to long term win special elections, we have to try to close those gaps.

00:36:28.600 So tonight is incredibly important.

00:36:30.860 If we win the special election here in Wisconsin, it means that we have a much higher likelihood

00:36:35.080 of keeping the House in 2026 and 2028.

00:36:37.720 If we win the special election tonight, it very well might determine the future of the

00:36:41.880 next presidential election in 2028.

00:36:43.880 That is how much these elections matter.

00:36:45.920 And if we lose, we will lose the people that decided to stay on the couch and not fill

00:36:51.120 out a ballot or show up to a voting precinct or voting center.

00:36:55.920 So we'll see.

00:36:57.040 All right.

00:36:57.800 So, Tyler, I just have joined now.

00:37:00.320 Before we get into that, can we just re-summarize for everyone that is joining on Real America's

00:37:05.560 Voice and all the other networks and all the place that we are streaming, I should say.

00:37:10.440 We won the two special elections in Florida.

00:37:13.260 Is that correct, guys?

00:37:15.140 That's right.

00:37:15.920 Charlie, Old Morning Joe's, Old District, Matt Gaetz's, Old District, CD1.

00:37:24.200 Looks like it's going to be about a 15-point victory.

00:37:26.760 And then Randy Fine and the elusive, this last week, the elusive CD6, playing the Tom and

00:37:34.740 Jerry game this week and avoiding the hammer.

00:37:39.680 Also looks like it's going to end up probably a little bit shy of 15 points, but they're close

00:37:43.920 to at least a double-digit victory.

00:37:46.800 For the Republicans.

00:37:49.340 So that's good.

00:37:50.300 I mean, so tonight will not be catastrophic, which is important.

00:37:53.760 I mean, understand that Democrats would have loved to have flipped a House seat or two.

00:37:58.860 This also means that we are going to increase our probability of passing that one big, beautiful

00:38:03.620 bill.

00:38:04.200 They were waiting for these two seats.

00:38:06.600 And also, they could not afford to lose that extra seat to have Elise Stefanik go to the

00:38:11.060 House.

00:38:11.300 Jack, speaking more broadly, Jack, can you talk about the obvious issue that we have as

00:38:19.600 Trump supporters, as Republicans, to try to fix the low propensity problem?

00:38:26.920 This whole election and the midterms will be about, can we bring presidential cycle voters

00:38:34.540 into a midterm election, into a special election?

00:38:38.620 Jack, let's dive into that.

00:38:40.040 Yeah, so the main thing is this.

00:38:42.920 There's really two brands at play here.

00:38:45.380 There's the brand of Donald Trump, the person, and through him, the brand of MAGA and America

00:38:51.760 First and everything he's associated with.

00:38:53.480 And then there's also the brand of the Republican Party.

00:38:56.820 And one thing that we saw consistently, if you look at all seven of the seven swing states,

00:39:01.700 President Trump ran ahead of pretty much every Republican in the entire country.

00:39:08.340 Now, certainly there's a few things that shake out here and there, but by and large, that's

00:39:12.080 what you saw.

00:39:12.760 But the Trump brand is higher with the people than the Republican brand.

00:39:17.700 And of course, that's because these low propensity voters, these just people who are really not

00:39:23.960 clued into politics on a regular basis, they're not watching human events, they're not watching

00:39:28.240 the Charlie Kirk show, they're not watching Steve Bannon.

00:39:30.780 So they're sitting there going, all right, I like Trump, I want to get Trump in, but pretty

00:39:36.140 much everything else gets kind of filtered out.

00:39:38.320 They're not that maybe they're into sports more, maybe they're into movies more, entertainment,

00:39:42.960 maybe they're just, you know, into personal, personal, you know, stocks and personal trading

00:39:48.480 and day trading, all that stuff.

00:39:49.800 There's a lot of things to do in this country.

00:39:51.600 I get that.

00:39:52.540 Trump wins with those voters very well.

00:39:54.860 But the question, of course, comes, becomes, it's like a two or even three step process to

00:39:59.700 say, all right, if you like Trump, then number one, you have to actually register to vote and

00:40:03.980 get Trump out.

00:40:05.220 This is, of course, the, the needle that had to be thread by turning point action in the

00:40:09.980 2024 election to say, okay, how do you actually get Trump to win?

00:40:13.800 Like there are people who thought that registering actually meant you voted.

00:40:16.240 It's crazy.

00:40:17.380 The amount of stuff that people didn't realize that they thought if you had a driver's license,

00:40:20.040 you were automatically registered.

00:40:21.820 So that's step one.

00:40:23.520 Then you have to say, all right, if you want Trump to win, you've got to get his guys in.

00:40:28.060 And that's a totally separate election, which also people don't understand that.

00:40:31.800 So that takes you down another needle that needs to be thread.

00:40:34.840 And then the third needle that needs to be thread is also getting them to understand that there

00:40:38.660 are in fact, other elections that where Donald Trump isn't on the ballot that are also important.

00:40:44.600 So you've really got three needles that need to be thread to bring out those type of voters

00:40:50.920 in a special election or even a midterm election.

00:40:53.620 I mean, you know, step back for a second and I know the, the chat gets, um, you know,

00:40:58.320 it doesn't believe it when I say things like this, but just, just think about it.

00:41:01.320 Like go watch some, you know, like a Mark Dice video of people walking around the boardwalk

00:41:04.460 or something.

00:41:05.060 There are people who do not understand there are midterm elections.

00:41:08.120 There are people who honestly think we only have elections every four years in this country.

00:41:12.860 They don't know there's other elections.

00:41:14.740 They don't understand there's other elections by and large.

00:41:17.400 They're not clued into the process whatsoever.

00:41:19.720 They can't tell you their Congressman's name.

00:41:21.520 They can't tell you their Senator's name.

00:41:23.360 They can't tell you their governor's name, but a lot of those people also like Trump.

00:41:28.580 So the goal for the Trump campaign or Elon Musk or turning point action or, uh, Scott

00:41:34.180 Pressler, anyone who wants to drive these people out is to go in and you have to do that education.

00:41:38.520 You've got to start basically from zero and then work your way forward.

00:41:42.140 But hopefully at least you've got that, that fertile ground and a ground that's not really,

00:41:46.800 uh, the way that it used to be.

00:41:48.800 It's totally shifted because there's been a five shift in this nation from us being sort

00:41:53.240 of this like center right nation with a liberal, with liberal institution to where people are

00:41:58.280 actually anti-establishment now in this country and they want Trump to succeed.

00:42:03.080 So there is a general vibe shift of wanting Trump, being more MAGA, wanting to see this

00:42:08.100 out.

00:42:08.280 That doesn't necessarily mean more conservative.

00:42:10.120 And I think that's something a lot of, um, a lot of pro-lifers found out.

00:42:14.080 I think it's also something that a lot of these, these ballot measures found out and a lot

00:42:17.920 of people found out as they were running.

00:42:19.340 And so you're, you're, by the way, you're seeing that with Randy fine, you're seeing

00:42:21.700 that with other people as we look at the outcomes here.

00:42:24.280 But at the end of the day, it's, it's going to be, you know, when you're, you're talking

00:42:27.800 about, let me think of it, Charlie, it's, it's what is the inherent truth of a low, a low

00:42:33.340 propositor, you know, low propensity voter, even a no propensity voter is they don't

00:42:36.860 typically vote.

00:42:38.300 We have, uh, initial, uh, results starting to come in in Wisconsin.

00:42:42.900 Yeah.

00:42:43.080 Put up, put up the screen here.

00:42:44.360 Uh, I can show that.

00:42:46.240 Great.

00:42:46.600 So this is, this is super early just for everyone in the audience.

00:42:50.160 Uh, it does look like there was an initial drop from Waukesha.

00:42:53.920 Uh, it looks like early votes.

00:42:55.840 Um, but that's, and then a few others, Kenosha and La Crosse County.

00:43:01.760 But this, this is promising.

00:43:03.060 It looks like, so we have this, as you said, early vote Waukesha, 15% of the total vote

00:43:07.820 estimated, and it is 61% for, uh, for Brad Schimmel.

00:43:12.840 Is that how you say it?

00:43:13.820 Yep.

00:43:14.140 Schimmel and 39% Crawford.

00:43:16.140 That is better than Trump did in, that was 59-39, I believe, in, uh, last November.

00:43:23.340 So there's a ways to go because they're probably still dumb.

00:43:25.720 They're still dumping in early votes.

00:43:27.540 A lot of this is early voting.

00:43:29.040 Uh, that's coming in.

00:43:30.240 We're seeing some others.

00:43:31.300 Fond du Lac just came in.

00:43:32.920 A few others.

00:43:33.400 That's the, that's the home of where the Republican Party was originally found in.

00:43:37.480 Uh, but yeah, looking back at, at Waukesha, which is where the Turning Point Action headquarters

00:43:42.680 are.

00:43:43.080 It's a big, beautiful building that's right off the freeway.

00:43:46.600 Uh, everybody sees it.

00:43:48.140 Uh, we've made a massive impact.

00:43:49.940 Uh, I was knocking doors there just the last two days in Waukesha.

00:43:52.800 Uh, this is good because Brad Schimmel needs to win with a baseline vote of about 60-61%

00:44:00.440 uh, minimum to give himself a chance the rest of the state.

00:44:04.900 Uh, and the early vote, the initial early vote is that he's winning basically 60-40 right now.

00:44:11.360 So that's a great start.

00:44:13.460 Uh, that's a very promising start because we know, oh, we got Dane County.

00:44:16.900 Dane, 3% of the vote Dane County.

00:44:19.140 Not bad.

00:44:20.040 So yeah, Dane is super lib.

00:44:22.420 This is looking almost identical to the 20-24 vote, which we won.

00:44:26.720 This is a great start, and I don't want to get too excited here, guys.

00:44:29.420 But the great start is early votes.

00:44:31.720 We're at, Brad Schimmel got 26% of the vote.

00:44:34.920 That's a great drop for Brad Schimmel in Dane County.

00:44:37.240 So these are, these are early votes.

00:44:39.420 Yeah, what is the configuration of these votes?

00:44:42.580 So, so, uh, Wisconsin, and I'll set this up for everybody that's listening at home here.

00:44:47.000 Yeah, first up, this is not a historic early voting state.

00:44:51.380 This is, early voting, like many places across the country,

00:44:54.720 really took off heavily with absentee voting during COVID.

00:45:00.760 Uh, so there's been a substantial increase over the last number of years.

00:45:03.860 Obviously Democrats have pushed that.

00:45:05.940 Uh, but early voting has been heavily Democrat because of that.

00:45:09.480 There was a ton of absentee voters that were signed up.

00:45:12.420 Uh, and the Joe Biden, you know, that, that, who's it, what's it campaign.

00:45:19.400 And so you have a lot, a much heavier, like a lot of places that we see much heavier presence

00:45:25.280 with Democrat early voters over Republican.

00:45:27.780 So we're getting, we're getting a few more results here.

00:45:31.560 We're, and they now are estimating 22% of Waukesha.

00:45:34.100 So pretty big chunks and 62, 38, he is still running several points ahead of Trump.

00:45:39.520 He's increasing.

00:45:40.240 That is good.

00:45:40.860 Now, some are not as great.

00:45:42.000 So we have a Winnebago County here where Oshkosh is.

00:45:44.860 That is 66, 34.

00:45:46.480 That's a county Trump won.

00:45:47.720 So that, that's your low prop problem.

00:45:50.760 That's your low prop problem.

00:45:52.040 So Trump was leading whether or not the country folks show up.

00:45:55.800 Um, yeah, so you're, yeah, Charlie's exactly right.

00:45:59.300 So the, the, the, and again, Winnebago County is not totally rural, but it's, it's rural

00:46:04.880 ask or college there or something that you'd get this super blue drop.

00:46:08.300 So everybody knows the, the great Winnebago vans, uh, that, but this is, this is actually

00:46:14.460 a, I believe this County the day after the election with late counts ended up flipping

00:46:20.260 back to Kamala.

00:46:21.360 I could be wrong about that.

00:46:22.600 So I'm looking at it here in last fall.

00:46:25.580 It was, and this is the final result.

00:46:27.900 It was 52.

00:46:28.480 Winnebago has Oshkosh.

00:46:29.520 There are a bunch of libs there.

00:46:30.720 Yeah.

00:46:30.900 Yeah.

00:46:31.060 But we won, we won Winnebago County with Trump and now we're way down, but that's in contrast

00:46:36.720 to Fond du Lac.

00:46:37.920 We're doing fine.

00:46:39.140 Uh, Manitowoc doing fine there.

00:46:41.840 So all these other ones are results have been good.

00:46:44.280 Kenosha.

00:46:44.720 We are down 52, 48 and that's a flip.

00:46:48.040 It was 52, 48 for us last November.

00:46:50.500 That's a great entry point though, for early votes, early votes in Kenosha.

00:46:54.620 It, I mean, that's right along the border of Chicago.

00:46:56.880 It's going to be way closer than all the DC people thought it's going to be probably under

00:47:01.300 three, plus or minus three points.

00:47:04.240 Charlie, Charlie, this is a great start to tonight.

00:47:06.340 This is exactly, if you're Brad Schimmel, it's without Milwaukee.

00:47:08.980 It's, it's without Milwaukee.

00:47:10.520 So you just gotta, yeah, but Milwaukee, I would say this, Charlie, Dane County is scarier.

00:47:18.860 Yes.

00:47:20.720 Oh, well, we, we just flipped towards us.

00:47:24.140 So 25%, Brad Schimmel is up by one point and two points now in Kenosha, actually.

00:47:29.180 So this is going to be, this is going to be a barn burner, which means G is continually

00:47:35.000 happening in Kenosha.

00:47:36.140 All right.

00:47:36.420 Let's, let's play a piece of tape here from CNN.

00:47:39.680 Let's play cut one 93, please.

00:47:42.380 In the city of Milwaukee, we just learned from the executive director of the Milwaukee election

00:47:47.520 commission that multiple sites were either running low or ran out of ballots.

00:47:53.700 At least those were the reports that they were getting at earlier this evening.

00:47:57.840 Now, according to the executive director, they are sending more resources to these places,

00:48:01.860 trying to make sure that they have what they need.

00:48:03.860 Seven sites in particular, she noted, had no ballots or at least made reports of having

00:48:09.340 no ballots.

00:48:10.240 Now, obviously she made the point of saying, if you are in line to stay in line, but she.

00:48:14.960 Tyler, what does that mean?

00:48:21.380 Translate that for us, please.

00:48:22.780 So we have multiple counties.

00:48:24.620 We were reports that we are there running out of ballots.

00:48:26.820 So we've heard this game before here in Maricopa County where we had this and Pennsylvania

00:48:32.360 as well.

00:48:33.100 Jack remembers this from before, but they were running out of ballots.

00:48:36.920 And I believe it was Ozaukee County, Washington County.

00:48:40.280 We heard these reports in Milwaukee.

00:48:41.800 And then I believe Rock County, which is not uber friendly to conservatives.

00:48:46.480 They were running out of ballots too.

00:48:48.200 Oh, and then we also heard we had an issue in Winnebago County as well, where they were

00:48:53.680 running out of ballots in Winnebago County.

00:48:56.300 One of our staffers on the ground that's there, Susan, just reported that, which made us a little

00:49:01.780 bit uncomfortable because some of these areas are not heavily conservative areas.

00:49:06.680 So, yeah, that's a bad situation in Milwaukee.

00:49:10.120 That's a bad situation potentially in Winnebago and Rock County.

00:49:18.800 So we're getting a lot.

00:49:21.080 A lot's coming in now.

00:49:22.160 We have almost 10% in Dane.

00:49:23.560 It's still 75, 25.

00:49:25.100 That's about what we had in the last one.

00:49:27.800 So it's just going to come down to what's the distribution?

00:49:30.560 What's the overall turnout level and what's the distribution of early vote, late vote?

00:49:35.540 Well, we talked about this before Charlie got on, but Charlie, what you and I and Andrew

00:49:40.400 were talking about in the chat is very much applicable here.

00:49:44.000 You have your wow counties, Washington, Waukesha, and Ozaukee that have to offset Milwaukee.

00:49:52.020 I mean, this is a great start for Waukesha.

00:49:54.220 Waukesha being at 62% with most of that early vote.

00:49:57.840 That is fantastic.

00:49:58.940 We heard lots of good reports of high turnout today in Waukesha County.

00:50:03.000 That's going to trend heavily Republican.

00:50:04.980 That's a fantastic start.

00:50:06.440 Not as great in Ozaukee.

00:50:07.960 Ozaukee is 54, 46.

00:50:09.680 It's a smaller county, but that's not the same type of turnout that you saw with Waukesha,

00:50:15.500 which is really carrying the load here.

00:50:17.080 But the rest of the state has to offset Dane.

00:50:20.420 So Dane County, you basically have to win to give yourself a chance.

00:50:24.340 If you're Brad Schimmel, you have to win Dane County by at least about 21%.

00:50:29.580 You got to get 21% of the vote and the rest can go to Susan Crawford.

00:50:34.520 But if it's anything less than that.

00:50:36.960 I mean, look, our office is in Waukesha.

00:50:41.560 And just to repeat the point, Donald Trump won Waukesha with 59% of the vote.

00:50:46.600 With half of the vote in, Brad Schimmel has 60% of the vote in Waukesha with 42% in.

00:50:53.240 That's a pretty good pace.

00:50:54.700 I mean, I know that can change with more votes, but there must be...

00:50:59.940 The betting markets are looking at this rather unfavorably.

00:51:02.400 I want to be very fair.

00:51:03.720 Blake, what are the betting markets saying and doing that we might be missing here?

00:51:08.540 Yeah, so I'm monitoring this over on CalShe.

00:51:11.760 That's one of the betting markets that exists now, calshe.com.

00:51:15.000 They have a market.

00:51:16.240 Yeah, you guys have it on the screen here where you could...

00:51:18.780 I'm looking at their estimated...

00:51:20.700 You could bet on the margin of victory.

00:51:22.240 People are so degen.

00:51:23.300 They'll bet on everything.

00:51:23.860 So you have 2% slots.

00:51:26.260 And how they've interpreted this is they've had the odds of a gigantic blowout go down.

00:51:32.100 So the stuff where Crawford wins by 14 or more points has basically gone to nothing.

00:51:36.320 But they also say the odds of a close race have gone down.

00:51:39.640 So they have Schimmel by 0-2 down to about 8%.

00:51:43.220 That's down about 6 points from just a bit earlier.

00:51:46.240 And where they're really focusing in on is we have this spike of...

00:51:49.860 We have Susan Crawford by 4-6 has gone up.

00:51:52.280 By 6-8 has gone up.

00:51:54.140 And then by 8-10, that's in the lead right now and has gone up the most.

00:51:58.680 So they're looking at something like an 8-10 Crawford win projection.

00:52:04.120 But it's still a very wide range overall.

00:52:07.400 But the initial response of the people who are putting their money on it, so they're thinking pretty seriously about it, is they think the results trend towards a moderate Crawford win.

00:52:19.820 But we'll remain optimistic until as we see the results come in.

00:52:25.320 The really interesting news.

00:52:27.020 Wisconsin Question 1, which adds voter ID requirement to the state's constitution, will pass.

00:52:33.920 That will pass everybody.

00:52:36.260 And that's just obviously the right thing to do.

00:52:38.600 And they've been calling it racist forever.

00:52:40.120 But voter ID to vote will pass.

00:52:43.760 It's amazing that a Democrat might win statewide if the Question 1 also passes.

00:52:50.280 So that should be a very good sign.

00:52:52.380 That should be.

00:52:53.620 Yes.

00:52:53.960 It certainly helps, Charlie.

00:52:55.420 And this was the beauty.

00:52:56.900 I mean, the real smart thing that the legislature did was they forced this onto the ballot.

00:53:00.400 That may be, ultimately, we may look back tonight and say that may be one of the many things that was the saving graces to this election that helped offset a significant amount of money that was spent by the Democrats.

00:53:14.760 But this is, it certainly doesn't help.

00:53:17.780 It doesn't hurt.

00:53:18.560 You have probably, for Brad Schimmel, added multiple points with the amount of people who showed up just for that.

00:53:25.280 And it also helped, I can tell you, out in the field, Charlie, with all of our people, was that it was an easy thing to explain to people and saying, hey, we have to win the Supreme Court race.

00:53:35.420 You have to vote in this election for voter ID.

00:53:38.060 And then we need the guy on the Supreme Court to help protect that.

00:53:41.420 Because they're going to try to get rid of it or minimize it any way that they possibly can.

00:53:46.880 Yeah.

00:53:47.160 So I think we have a ton of votes in, guys.

00:53:49.720 We have to update.

00:53:50.460 I'm sorry.

00:53:50.860 We have a ton of votes in right now.

00:53:52.920 It is now a seven-point margin, about 15,000 votes separating Crawford and Schimmel.

00:54:00.180 And I want to update that for the audience.

00:54:02.540 It's about a five-point margin-ish.

00:54:05.480 And there are, Dane County looks to be reporting some more of their votes.

00:54:11.140 So walk us, let's get the map back up on screen.

00:54:14.060 Tyler, the margin now has Crawford up about five points, about 14,000 votes.

00:54:19.420 Walk us through what is necessary here.

00:54:23.540 Yeah.

00:54:23.720 So Waukesha County, it looks like we've gotten a decent chunk of the early votes.

00:54:29.080 That's probably what was dumped in here first.

00:54:32.480 You know, they're going to, we're not going to see results from day of election results yet until about nine o'clock central.

00:54:39.680 So most of those are going to be reported closer to nine o'clock.

00:54:43.720 So in about 30 minutes.

00:54:45.060 So what you're seeing first are counties that have a central count in particular, but counties that are reporting their early votes.

00:54:53.160 So again, remember a lot of these early votes, we expect them to trend more Democrat.

00:54:59.960 We expect them to trend to the left.

00:55:02.720 What was really interesting is Dane County has been coming down, you know, a little bit as they've been reporting.

00:55:08.280 They only have about 20% in, which isn't that far behind Waukesha, which the map I'm looking at right now is 34% in for the whole county.

00:55:18.580 But you're going to see it getting pinker and light bluer for many of these counties.

00:55:27.300 They're going to be neck and neck where we see a lot of these that are just light blue counties.

00:55:31.600 They're in the more metropolitan areas and light pink.

00:55:36.560 And then also along the river on the western side of the state, you have just these notoriously interesting counties that are surrounding Madison.

00:55:47.240 They're towards the outside.

00:55:49.240 They're a little more rural and it's all going to just depend on turnout.

00:55:53.400 Those all combined together ultimately decide what what's going to happen in that offset to Dane County.

00:55:59.760 So the margin is now nine points and it's about 20, oh boy, 33,000 votes.

00:56:09.720 So are we only seeing early voting across the state, Tyler?

00:56:13.480 Is that what you're saying is that day of voting has yet to report?

00:56:16.380 Is that correct?

00:56:17.440 Yeah, most of the day of voting is not going to get reported until closer to nine because they have to they have to assemble all that, bring it into the central count.

00:56:24.860 Some of these some of these counties don't even have central count.

00:56:30.580 So some of them do.

00:56:32.300 Many of them don't.

00:56:33.340 Waukesha doesn't have central count.

00:56:34.820 So they got to wait for all those to come in.

00:56:36.980 And there's all these different municipalities that are across the so you're not going to see those get reported until they're in.

00:56:44.920 And those aren't going to start trickling in until about 9 p.m. central.

00:56:47.960 So the reason we're down right now is because Madison is now up to 32 percent of the vote in.

00:56:54.140 That's double the overall amount.

00:56:56.520 We don't have any of Milwaukee, though.

00:56:57.980 So there's two big nukes we're going to get hit by.

00:57:00.700 We're going to get hit by the Madison, Dane County nuke and we're going to hit by Milwaukee.

00:57:05.420 Good news, though, Blake.

00:57:07.080 Most I mean, we're getting close to the point of Dane County is running out of early votes.

00:57:12.420 But do we know these are all early vote?

00:57:14.240 Because I know certainly in 2020, I believe Milwaukee's early vote came last, their mail-in vote.

00:57:21.020 So that's like the kind of famous, you know, 2 a.m. dump that they had.

00:57:24.540 So they tried to pass a bill this last year in Wisconsin that forced everyone to get all the votes counted before Election Day.

00:57:32.300 So that would have forced them to count them.

00:57:34.440 I think it was either the Saturday before the election or the Monday before the election.

00:57:37.460 That bill did not pass.

00:57:38.720 So they don't technically have to do it.

00:57:40.340 Now, Brett Galaszewski, who will be joining us hopefully here in just a little bit, has been tracking Milwaukee County.

00:57:47.220 He's the first vice chair of the Milwaukee GOP.

00:57:49.500 He runs our national program, has been tracking how many votes they have left to count.

00:57:53.700 As of about 4 p.m. today, they only had 7,000 votes left to count.

00:57:58.060 So that started the day at 21,000.

00:58:00.880 They only had 7,000.

00:58:02.280 But those are typically votes that are counted first because, again, where you have a central count, where those are all available, they will express those more quickly.

00:58:16.540 Milwaukee is one of those places, and those will come out.

00:58:19.720 Those mostly should be counted together.

00:58:22.740 Now, they haven't reported those together because allegedly, and again, this is from Brett, is that they want to drop all those together once they're counted.

00:58:31.500 So your point is potentially valid is that we may not see Milwaukee's early vote count until midnight tonight, Central, because they may drop all of that together, and they may start actually showing Election Day first.

00:58:46.600 But in a lot of these other counties, that's what you're seeing right away, and what Charlie's seeing is those are early votes that have already been recorded and brought in, and that's what's dropping first.

00:58:57.800 So we don't want to, like, lead people.

00:59:00.360 You can go, Charlie.

00:59:02.560 No, please, Blake, go.

00:59:04.160 So we don't want to, you know, just give people hopium, so I want to flag a few things we might want to worry about.

00:59:09.900 I'm looking here, Kenosha County, that's 57% in, over half.

00:59:15.600 We're down there by a point.

00:59:17.040 That was a two-point Trump win last November.

00:59:21.200 Ozaukee County.

00:59:22.020 Only down 300.

00:59:22.980 So Schimmel's only down 300 votes.

00:59:24.820 Sure, but it's over half in, so we would need.

00:59:27.780 Zoom in a little bit, guys, and this is the New York Times.

00:59:29.980 We have to give credit to them.

00:59:30.980 Yeah, so this is the New York Times live tracking.

00:59:33.100 We have 57% in Kenosha County.

00:59:35.540 We're not down by a large amount, but we are down, and this is a county we won by about the amount we won the state by.

00:59:42.980 We need to win it.

00:59:43.840 Yes, and similarly, we have Ozaukee.

00:59:46.020 That's one of the wows.

00:59:47.280 This is a Republican area, and it's only 24%, but we're down there by four.

00:59:53.620 And Oshkosh in Winnebago County, we're now over halfway in there, and we're down there as well.

00:59:59.940 And that's, I think we won that by about 10.

01:00:02.140 Let me check that.

01:00:02.860 Yeah, we won that 52-47, so we won that by five in the last race.

01:00:09.480 And so you do need those to turn.

01:00:12.500 Another trend we're seeing is Dane County.

01:00:15.920 Obviously, we don't need to win that, but we need to keep it closer.

01:00:19.100 It's now 77-23, whereas for Trump, that was 75-23.

01:00:24.760 So we're doing a little bit worse than Trump now, whereas we were doing better when that first dump of a few percent came in.

01:00:30.640 Yeah, and again, it's early, right?

01:00:34.680 Because closer to 9 p.m., we're going to be seeing those election day votes, which is going to be helpful.

01:00:39.820 If it's not helpful, right?

01:00:41.160 If those don't start turning, right?

01:00:43.700 That's a problem.

01:00:44.920 The Democrats needed a pretty significant turnout of early votes.

01:00:50.740 We know they didn't get what they wanted to get on that front.

01:00:54.040 But the question is, is did we get enough turnout today?

01:00:58.180 And again, this is something we haven't really discussed in the chat, but our models show with our team that we need probably 2.2 million people to vote in this election to give Brad Schimmel a chance to offset the early votes from the Democrats.

01:01:12.040 That's kind of the trend that we need to be looking at.

01:01:16.880 Right now, we're looking at how many votes have been cast.

01:01:20.520 The total right now that have been counted is 624,000.

01:01:25.620 So you're looking at, you know, we're a little under a third of the total votes, potentially.

01:01:35.100 This says 28%, right?

01:01:37.840 So we're trending towards what seems to be believed to be a 2.2 million person election.

01:01:46.500 We have our first Milwaukee drop, by the way.

01:01:48.980 And wow, it's enormous.

01:01:49.920 Yeah, that's going to be.

01:01:51.000 So we have 61% of Milwaukee County in abruptly, 72.28 versus that was 68.30 for Kamala.

01:02:04.400 So she is running ahead of what Harris, Susan Crawford is running ahead of what Kamala did in Milwaukee County so far with almost two thirds in.

01:02:15.060 Right.

01:02:15.380 And the question is going to be is, you know, what kind of votes are those?

01:02:19.260 So we're going to have to wait to hear from our experts on the ground.

01:02:23.080 Are those early votes or are those election day votes?

01:02:29.660 So we're at 28% of the vote in.

01:02:31.700 Let's just update on the macro.

01:02:33.820 Susan Crawford commands a nearly 107,000 vote lead.

01:02:38.960 No spin.

01:02:39.440 That's a lot.

01:02:40.340 There's still a lot of votes left on the board.

01:02:42.040 That's a 17 point lead.

01:02:44.240 The configuration of that, it will likely tighten.

01:02:47.240 And how much it will tighten, we will see based on election day votes.

01:02:53.480 There are a ton of red counties that have yet to perform.

01:02:56.380 But understand, as you guys look at this map, it's it doesn't what is not.

01:03:01.540 Can you guys please go back to the entire statewide?

01:03:03.860 Thank you.

01:03:04.240 What is not shown on this map is, yes, red county, red county, red county is what Donald Trump did is he brought in voters that have never voted and he made red counties redder, meaning the turnout was so high.

01:03:20.160 The Richter scale was that he made rural counties basically the power of a suburb where rurals used to just kind of be an afterthought.

01:03:28.160 He combined like 50 rural counties together where it basically became its own Waukesha.

01:03:34.180 And if you are not able to mirror that or have that continue in special elections, it's very, very hard to win.

01:03:43.580 Now, look, it's a it's a it's a serious deficit right now.

01:03:47.260 It looks as if it's about what, a hundred and about one hundred fifteen thousand.

01:03:53.160 Well, and Blake brought up just trying to do some of the math here.

01:03:56.100 Yeah.

01:03:56.300 Yeah.

01:03:56.500 Blake brought up a couple of things that are really important for us to keep our eye on.

01:03:59.180 So Waukesha County right now just dip down below 60.

01:04:03.620 Brad Schimmel's got to be at 60, 61 percent minimum to have a fighting chance statewide or at least to offset Milwaukee.

01:04:14.320 Ozaukee County is a real problem.

01:04:16.280 Ozaukee County is right now, like Blake mentioned, Brad's running four points down.

01:04:21.420 Again, this looks to be mostly early votes.

01:04:25.440 So I would I think I believe that this is early votes still.

01:04:30.600 But, you know, you don't want to be down in Ozaukee.

01:04:33.140 You need to win Ozaukee by a healthy margin on Election Day to help offset those Milwaukee votes.

01:04:40.920 Now, Washington County hasn't reported it.

01:04:43.120 I'm going I'm going to be the very blunt, direct communicator.

01:04:47.460 This is not a great map for us right now, and it is demonstrating of a high prop electorate as we have built a low prop party, a 19 point deficit and a now one hundred and thirty seven thousand vote deficit with thirty three percent reporting.

01:05:04.440 I don't like our odds.

01:05:06.300 I'll be very honest.

01:05:07.020 It might end up getting much closer and much tighter, but we are not seeing the juice and the squeeze of high, high turnout from some of these areas that we will need.

01:05:16.660 I'm not saying that is 100 percent correct that we're going to lose.

01:05:19.380 I'm just going to be honest.

01:05:20.580 I'm I'm not seeing it in the cards right now.

01:05:22.780 Blake.

01:05:23.320 Well, I want to look at the we've talked about, you know, the betting markets.

01:05:27.400 We like to look at the betting markets because that's what people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is, are saying, and they're tracking what they expect the specific outcome to be.

01:05:36.880 And there there will be blunt.

01:05:39.060 They don't see it as very likely we're going to win.

01:05:41.940 They are narrowing in here.

01:05:43.800 You can see all the odds for a close race are dropping all the odds for a super blowout.

01:05:48.580 Those have fallen away, too.

01:05:50.120 They're settling in.

01:05:51.180 They their favorite is Susan Crawford by eight to ten points, 36 percent, and they still have some odds for for by more than 10 and some by a little less than eight.

01:06:01.020 But that's that's what they're surging for right now.

01:06:05.820 Yeah.

01:06:06.000 And the real problem, again, is going back Waukesha County.

01:06:10.020 You have to have a dominant performance for Republicans.

01:06:13.600 You have to turn out.

01:06:15.000 We have to have as many voters out as possible for that to offset Green Bay has not yet reported.

01:06:24.160 Brown County has not yet reported.

01:06:26.020 That's going to be a huge thing to look at, too.

01:06:28.520 That's a that's a big population center that has shifted far right.

01:06:32.320 So Tony Weed, who's the new congressman that's up in that in that direction.

01:06:36.320 We've got to have a really severe, severely high turnout to help offset.

01:06:41.240 And then, you know, we talked going back to Kenosha and Racine.

01:06:46.440 Racine hasn't yet reported, but Kenosha is not looking as good as you you would want.

01:06:53.220 You would want Kenosha to be flipped right now, which is, you know.

01:06:56.460 Now it's it's up to 73 percent in.

01:06:59.320 And I mean, I'll be honest, Crawford has a bigger lead.

01:07:01.800 Of all the votes?

01:07:02.260 Before.

01:07:03.360 Statewide?

01:07:04.460 Of Kenosha.

01:07:05.000 Of Kenosha.

01:07:06.220 73 percent of Kenosha County is in.

01:07:08.640 And this is a county that Trump won by about two points.

01:07:13.680 And I think it was actually three or four points.

01:07:15.980 And we're down there by six.

01:07:17.440 And that's that's worse than when it was at 50 50.

01:07:20.460 Yeah.

01:07:20.700 And now Dane County is about 50 percent in and Schimmel's down to 21 percent, which again,

01:07:26.280 you're knocking on the door if he is.

01:07:28.500 That's the floor.

01:07:29.540 The floor for him is like 20, 21 percent.

01:07:32.660 We got to keep that up in order for things not to get go completely haywire.

01:07:37.460 Now it's 57 percent and he's hanging in.

01:07:39.780 He's hanging in there at 21 percent.

01:07:41.660 So you can't can't tap out yet on that.

01:07:44.660 For sure.

01:07:45.040 But again, we want to compare.

01:07:46.760 I am going again.

01:07:47.780 I'm going to have to just come in because, again, I don't want to waste people's valuable

01:07:51.280 time, even though it might not be good for ratings.

01:07:53.620 I give us an enormously low probability that this is going to be overcome.

01:07:57.680 I'm just going to be honest.

01:07:58.420 I'm not saying it's impossible.

01:07:59.680 I want to look at the analytics.

01:08:01.420 I want to look at the data.

01:08:02.200 And the reason being is I'm just one state by state, is that the low prop voters did

01:08:08.520 not show up in the numbers that we needed.

01:08:11.080 These are the working class men that showed up for Trump and then they just disappear.

01:08:15.820 These are your carpenters and your welders and they work in the cheese factories and

01:08:19.580 they build Winnebago's and they are the backbone of the country.

01:08:24.160 And we call them phantom voters.

01:08:26.560 Donald Trump was able to basically get these people to appear.

01:08:30.480 Donald Trump was able to get them to appear and they've never been on anybody's data

01:08:34.380 roll.

01:08:34.960 They've never been on a voter file.

01:08:36.900 They've never been anywhere.

01:08:37.860 And poof, they show up and they say, and guess what?

01:08:41.040 Wisconsin had same day registration.

01:08:44.280 Now, hate to break it to you guys.

01:08:45.820 Decision Desk, which has not been right or wrong about much of anything, has just said

01:08:50.040 the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is over, defeating conservative Brad Schimmel.

01:08:54.460 So hate to break it to you guys, but that is now Decision Desk.

01:08:57.660 We'll keep an eye on here with how the rest of this report comes out.

01:09:05.300 And it's, again, we're still hanging in there.

01:09:07.780 Waukesha is now at 77%, still hanging at 58%, which is not enough.

01:09:14.440 You got to be, Waukesha has got to be at 62, 63%, again, because of the size, the magnitude

01:09:22.140 of the county, it's big enough where if you win by that much, which Waukesha used to win

01:09:28.300 for conservatives by that much.

01:09:30.320 That is, again, the home of Scott Walker.

01:09:34.160 He lives there, not far in Pewaukee.

01:09:37.400 Pewaukee is one of the largest couch voter voting situations that we have.

01:09:44.060 We talked about with Charlie.

01:09:45.580 The loss here isn't to the radical left.

01:09:48.980 The loss is to our own people not turning out.

01:09:52.480 And some of these wards...

01:09:53.500 We lost to the couch.

01:09:54.380 Some of these wards just don't...

01:09:57.100 They have thousands of people who don't show up for these votes.

01:10:00.260 Yeah, so we're going to...

01:10:01.920 In last November, we had 3.4 million people vote.

01:10:05.500 This is going to be an enormously high turnout off election, considering it's not a midterm,

01:10:10.280 not a general in the fall.

01:10:11.800 This is a spring election.

01:10:13.720 We're going to break 2 million votes on this.

01:10:15.800 It looks like it'll be 2.3 to 2.4, but that is a million missing voters where you'll be

01:10:22.000 able to say if we'd had the five...

01:10:24.500 There will be 500,000 Trump voters from last November who did not show up, and we're going...

01:10:31.980 It's going to be close enough that if we'd had, you know, plausibly half those people arrive,

01:10:36.760 we might have won this.

01:10:38.560 But not enough of those, and just you lose by a few points, you know, as much as...

01:10:47.180 You know, we won it in November, but we won it by 0.9%.

01:10:49.780 There was not a lot of room for it to move left at all, so we likely had a bit of that.

01:10:56.920 And then if you have the enthusiasm gap, if you have Democrats spending more because they

01:11:01.800 really want to win, because they're really fired up, and they're also just, as we say,

01:11:06.460 the higher prop party right now, they get more meaning out of politics, they invest more of

01:11:11.480 themselves into politics, they're more likely to track every single race, however obscure it is,

01:11:19.440 they're going to have...

01:11:20.720 They're going to be able to pick up one point, it looks like, and we've got to continue working

01:11:25.840 on our strategy to get people whose engagement with voting, as they maybe voted for Trump in

01:11:32.180 2016, and voted for him in 2024, and otherwise have largely avoided voting, we need to work

01:11:39.960 on the strategy of getting those people to consistently vote in midterm elections, and in these off-cycle

01:11:49.520 elections that...

01:11:51.200 Because if the Democrats are the high prop party, they'll have the advantage in every election

01:11:54.960 that is not a November election.

01:11:57.360 Well, we know what the solution is. The solution that we had in Arizona was you have to put full-time

01:12:04.200 bodies on the low prop voters. You have to have those people out for months and months and months

01:12:09.860 and months, and you have to have enough people to be able to chase enough votes to win.

01:12:15.820 The forecast right now is saying it's probably going to be in the ballpark of about 1.15,

01:12:24.360 1.16 million votes that are going to be cast. Again, these are just projections, but 1.6 million

01:12:31.740 votes... Sorry, 1.16 million votes for Susan Crawford. You've got to chase that many votes.

01:12:39.120 You've got to get out, and this is much higher than people expected. This race is probably going

01:12:45.820 to end up being well over 2 million votes cast. Our estimation was we needed 2.2 million votes

01:12:52.600 cast. We might come out slightly underneath that, and that's part of what's not going to help Brad

01:12:57.400 Schimmel is we didn't get enough election day turnout, but that is where you look at this and you go,

01:13:04.020 okay, well, how do you get that many people out to vote? You've got to put that many bodies on those

01:13:09.140 people, and there's simple math to it. The left funds effectively one full-time person to chase

01:13:16.360 somewhere in the ballpark about 300 to 400 votes. If you want to win, and again, there's unfortunately

01:13:23.700 not enough exuberance for Supreme Court races from the right for donors to fund that many full-time

01:13:31.620 bodies, but the difference here is probably going to be 150,000 votes, which give or take is another

01:13:39.000 500 full-time people you have on the ground. The left has those people already, and we know this

01:13:44.200 because they have the unions. They give union workers time off. They already have the C4 set up.

01:13:49.320 They pay them. Our side doesn't have that, so you have to build it. You have to fund it,

01:13:54.100 and you have to keep it permanent. Yeah. Well, and Tyler, just to piggyback on what you're saying

01:14:02.720 there, people have to understand is that states in that northern tier from Michigan over, particularly

01:14:09.000 working with the labor unions over there, traditionally speaking, they have this

01:14:14.000 massive Democrat infrastructure, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, that's existed for basically a

01:14:21.220 generation at this point, where they literally have people who, as you say, are paid full-time,

01:14:27.480 24-7, 365 days a year to do Democrat politics, to work Democrat politics. So a Donald Trump-type

01:14:35.020 candidate comes up, and yeah, that'll get working-class people to cross the line, to get more active,

01:14:40.480 to come down out of work, to take time out of their busy lives, because they're working class,

01:14:46.140 they're working, to go and cast a vote for Donald Trump. But any other Republican, like I was just saying,

01:14:50.980 is going to have to work 10 times harder. You have to thread three needles to be able to get those

01:14:57.400 same type of workers to come out. Democrats, on the other side, as you're saying, Tyler,

01:15:01.780 don't have this problem. Democrats have, look, and you think of the Democrat worker, right? It's so much

01:15:06.820 easier for them to do that type of work, fill in an absentee ballot, fill in an early ballot,

01:15:13.020 mail-in ballot, because a lot of them are more of the white-collar workers, a lot of them are more of

01:15:17.980 the, you know, working in an office, or in many cases, working from home these days. You're working

01:15:22.640 at universities. You're basically paid to be a Democrat, you know, paid to be a liberal 24-7,

01:15:27.440 and to make more liberals, like over there in Madison. So there's a lot of inherent issues

01:15:34.200 with having the low prop turnout when you don't have Trump on the ballot. And these are issues,

01:15:41.100 by the way, that the Democrats have been working with for a long, long time. And this is where their

01:15:44.720 control of the institutions statewide in places like Wisconsin really comes into play.

01:15:50.380 Well, the institutions like unions, the teachers' union, for example, you know, you have,

01:15:56.900 did we lose Charlie for a second here?

01:15:58.400 Yeah, you just step away for a second.

01:15:59.680 You have the teachers' union. You have, I mean, you have a lot of people in a lot of places who

01:16:04.200 are already assembled. Our site has to assemble these people. You have to prepare. You have to

01:16:09.740 hire them. They have to have jobs. Like, you can't just snatch people out of thin air and be

01:16:15.760 like, oh, quit whatever job you're working in and come do this. They have to have a job full-time

01:16:19.860 doing this. Again, this is where the unions maximize, right? They have a full-time job. And

01:16:23.740 they go, oh, you can take the next three months off and go campaign. You know, we'll pay you. And you

01:16:29.160 get basically double dipping. You get your normal salary, you get your time off, and then you get

01:16:34.600 the C4, the non-profit money that they'll throw at you to go do this work and chase votes.

01:16:41.320 And our side, again, this is where we're screaming from the rooftops is, if you want to break that

01:16:46.920 threshold, if you want to break through, you're not going to have Trump on the ballot each time

01:16:51.900 that makes it easier to do that, right? And that's where we got so lucky this last election. We were

01:16:56.840 lucky because it was easy to get people to go give money to help support Trump and then to help go

01:17:03.120 chase votes for Trump. It's a much tougher uphill climb, uphill battle with a relatively unknown

01:17:10.020 candidate. And again, Brad Schimmel is awesome. He is an incredible dude, legit, easy to work for all

01:17:18.200 that stuff, but people just don't know him, right? And so they're not going to just abandon their

01:17:22.560 livelihoods to go do something for six months or a year or three months or two weeks. So we have an

01:17:31.020 incredible team that's been on the ground in Wisconsin, you know, give or take about 200 people

01:17:36.920 who are working at or nearly full-time and then thousands of people who were going in. You need

01:17:42.620 about, for this race to close the gap on what's there, that's in addition to what's been done. You

01:17:48.440 need another 500 full-time people to be on the ground. We just did that math, but then you need

01:17:52.520 about 10 times the amount of volunteers, about 5,000 volunteers. We had, we just pulled this today.

01:17:58.820 We had about 4,000 people that were, that were helping in some capacity across Wisconsin. It

01:18:03.120 wasn't enough. You need more. Uh, and again, there's not a, there's not a historic nature of

01:18:08.560 activism within Wisconsin in conservative politics. You got to build that. Um, and so that's got to keep

01:18:14.900 growing and keep moving towards, I mean, we're looking at Dane County here. 21% is, you know, your,

01:18:22.040 your, your, your floor for Brad Schimmel. He's hanging on by a thread, but this Waukesha

01:18:28.220 number, Oh, Ozaukee County just flipped. That's true. Yep. Which is good. Uh, but while this

01:18:34.020 Waukesha number isn't where it needs to be, we got to get, that has to be at like 62, 63%

01:18:39.060 and holding and which, which is where he was. And it's really interesting because some of these

01:18:43.120 other votes that came in were not super favorable to Brad Schimmel. So we'll keep looking at this

01:18:48.940 and keep, uh, keep an eye on it. Uh, and yeah, this is Brad. And so we'll, we'll keep talking

01:18:57.380 while we're, we're here as we're looking at these results that are coming in. Oh, and we just got

01:19:02.700 another dump here. Um, it looks like things have stayed pretty much even, uh, trending still about

01:19:10.680 120,000 ballots down. So you got to start figuring out where can those come from? Uh, Waukesha County

01:19:17.120 is now at 80% in, which it was about 75% just a few minutes ago. They've also dialed Milwaukee

01:19:23.580 back to 50%, whereas it was, uh, over 60% before. So that's, that's not great. Not good. Yeah. Yeah.

01:19:31.360 That's not helpful. Dane is 55. So you're looking at about half of the vote in both those places.

01:19:37.720 And, you know, I'll be honest, we're running about, we're running a bit behind where we were

01:19:41.640 in those counties a few months ago. Brown County's in, uh, again, not as high as you would hope.

01:19:49.520 Um, it's not bad. Green Bay has been kind of split. It's a 58 42 number right now. Only 24%

01:19:56.820 of the vote is in. You expect a pretty decent day of election showing there for Brad Schimmel.

01:20:03.040 But again, just more votes keep dumping here and you're, you're moving backwards and you're moving

01:20:11.100 backwards and that's not good. Kenosha, not in good shape. 95% of the vote. All right. You have to

01:20:17.040 win Kenosha and Racine and Kenosha. You're back six points right now. You're down 3000, 3000 votes.

01:20:24.560 That's a lot. That's a lot for a place that you're hoping to win.

01:20:27.600 Yeah. So I've been analyzing this data. Let me just kind of repeat this though. For everyone

01:20:35.880 watching at home is that these off your elections are going to continue to be a challenge for our

01:20:41.820 party and our movement absent a change of strategy and a change of approach from the top down and also

01:20:48.980 the bottom up. Look, we can't blame working class people for not showing up. We have to do a better

01:20:53.420 job of exciting them, of finding them and from bringing and bringing them out to vote in a full

01:21:01.780 grassroots mobilization and getting the mindset right. And let's also just appreciate President's

01:21:07.820 Donald Trump ability to get these voters out. Something that people thought was impossible.

01:21:12.940 The two people of this century that have been able to get low propensity voters out is Barack Obama

01:21:17.880 and Donald Trump. And interestingly, they were both able to get out similar types of low propensity

01:21:22.420 voters. The party has been remade. The Democrats are now going to permanently enjoy this kind of high

01:21:30.440 prop coalition that they've built. And we're still dependent on Trump's magic. I want to ask Jack

01:21:35.900 this. Jack, theoretically, with maybe a vice president, Jay Vance being the nominee in 2028, can we win

01:21:42.900 back some of these high prop voters? And can we can we bring the low props to be similar to the

01:21:51.960 turnout of Donald Trump? One of those two things need to happen. Jack, your thoughts?

01:21:58.580 Yeah, I mean, that's that's really the the 12 billion dollar question, isn't it, Charlie?

01:22:03.380 Yeah, you're right. So so J.D. Vance, as it stands, you know, let's let's say devil's advocate,

01:22:07.860 he becomes the nominee in 2028. He's obviously going for this, you know, and it's J.D. Vance's brand to

01:22:15.420 begin with. Right. He's sort of got this. He's equal parts like white collar and blue collar mixed

01:22:21.320 into one. Curtis Yarvin said something about how J.D. Vance has so many Americans within him. And I

01:22:27.320 think that's an incredible, you know, an incredible way to view it. You know, he goes to the Marines and

01:22:32.320 he's a Marine. He goes to a bar and he's a bar. But yet he can also sit down with like the New York

01:22:37.880 Times and speak their language, go to Munich and tell off the globalists. So I do think that he makes

01:22:43.160 the articulate case for new rights, Trumpism, nationalist populism, this in the same in a

01:22:51.460 way that I think wouldn't necessarily turn off those high prop voters like you're talking about

01:22:55.820 that Trump typically tends to do. But at the same time, you're getting you're getting portions of

01:23:02.080 the high prop base. But also he doesn't have that. He just doesn't have the same name ID. He doesn't

01:23:06.800 have the name, same street cred that Donald Trump does. And who could for the record, by the way,

01:23:12.040 who could have the same level of street cred as Donald Trump with blue collar workers.

01:23:17.200 So, you know, of course, we've all seen the the, you know, the articles this week about,

01:23:21.240 you know, what if what advance runs and Trump is on the ticket with him? I don't think that's a good

01:23:25.740 idea, by the way, because that would, you know, if Vance resigns, that would preclude himself from

01:23:30.180 running and actually being president in the future. And it's it's it's really going to be something

01:23:36.340 where, again, he's going to have to be threading needles. You know, maybe you'd look for a balancing

01:23:39.920 act of having someone who has that, you know, either either blue collar appeal or also that

01:23:45.420 cross party appeal. Someone who's able to pick up people from the middle people, people and

01:23:50.980 and really, by the way, tap into the Maha movement. You know, I think the Maha movement and let me just,

01:23:55.880 you know, you know, step back and even bigger for a second. I didn't see the Maha movement

01:24:00.360 getting engaged in the Wisconsin election because I didn't see anyone ask the Maha movement to get

01:24:05.860 engaged in the 2025 Wisconsin election. I didn't see anyone reach out and explain to Maha why they

01:24:12.680 should be involved in the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. I didn't see anyone asking for their votes

01:24:16.800 and see anyone campaigning for their votes. And I'm a big believer in people don't come out and vote for

01:24:22.360 you because you say you should. I think people come out and vote for you because you ask specific

01:24:26.680 coalitions to come out for your vote. This is something that FDR understood. This is something that

01:24:31.360 coalitions building on the Democrat side has understood for almost 100 years now. And I haven't

01:24:37.440 seen any Republican really work this work this out up until Donald Trump put it together in starting in

01:24:44.860 2016, but then on forward in understanding that you have to go to each group specifically and ask them

01:24:50.840 for their vote. So, you know, it's the big piece of the table or piece of the pie that was missing

01:24:54.680 here in Wisconsin was Maha. Did anyone go and ask Maha to get involved in Wisconsin because he didn't

01:24:59.720 see it? And then you look at the but you look at the profile of a Maha supporter. They actually do

01:25:04.960 fit the high prop white collar suburban female suburban white female almost, you know, synonymous type

01:25:11.400 voter. So maybe if Maha was on board or found an angle to be on board, you would have had those type

01:25:16.320 of voters show up a little bit better. Yeah, I mean, look, in order for us to compete against the

01:25:24.080 Democrats, Tyler, I want you to just brag on the great work that Turning Point Action did here.

01:25:28.140 Again, we're about results, not just activity. So it doesn't, you know, there's no consolation prize

01:25:33.900 here. But talk about what the Democrats had on the ground in permanent infrastructure to win this

01:25:39.660 Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. Yeah, I mean, this is again, we and we just went through this. But

01:25:45.820 you know, the Democrats have a permanent infrastructure, particularly behind the blue wall,

01:25:50.020 where you have this historic union based epicenter. And you've got unions, you've got union members,

01:25:56.220 they're vicious, they're, you know, angry, you know, on the left, the union bosses, I mean,

01:26:02.000 most of the unions are actually pretty split. They're about half and half in a post Trump world

01:26:06.380 here in a Trump era world where, you know, there's a lot of blue collar folks that are Republican,

01:26:12.560 but the leadership, that's why I'm referencing the leadership are all Democrats, and they have the

01:26:18.320 structure, the infrastructure that's already built. And the infrastructure that's already there

01:26:22.000 pays people, you know, basically, salaries and family members salaries to go out and do this work

01:26:28.740 that we have to build from the ground up. And, you know, again, bragging on the Turning Point Action

01:26:33.460 staff, we have incredible people who have made up significant ground, you know, we saw that in the

01:26:40.220 2024 election for President Trump, where we trade where we chase tens of thousands of ballots that put

01:26:46.140 them over the top. But here in this, I mean, you look at the last Supreme Court election with Dan

01:26:51.580 Kelly, and you know, he lost that election by about 100, almost 200,000 votes, 200,000 votes,

01:26:59.220 I think it was, that's a lot of ground to make up, you have to have on the ground. And so the number

01:27:04.640 that you need to make up what's projected now to be, you know, 100, a little over 100,000 vote loss,

01:27:11.180 we'll see how many total votes get counted. I mean, it looks like we're trending towards that 2.2 million

01:27:15.740 that I mentioned that would put Brad Schimmel in the in the ballpark of having the ability to win.

01:27:22.700 But you've got to chase 150,000 votes to win, you know, to have some safe padding, you know,

01:27:28.220 you got to have 500 more full time people on the ground. And that's the way that the left pays them,

01:27:33.620 Charlie, is they pay them basically full teacher salaries, because you can't just hire, you know,

01:27:39.380 people who will just come and go, you can't hire off Craigslist, you have to hire people who treat this as a

01:27:44.800 profession. They have to be people who are basically, you know, they do hire a lot of

01:27:49.060 teachers, they hire a lot of people out of schools, they hire a lot of union family members. And they

01:27:53.560 say, this is your job. Now, you are going to build relationships in the neighborhoods that you live

01:27:57.840 in. And you're going to chase these votes every election. If it's for dog catcher, and we tell you

01:28:02.580 to, you're going to chase it. If it's for Supreme Court, you're going to chase it. If it's for president,

01:28:06.400 you're going to chase it. And they have that infrastructure built in Wisconsin. And so we've got to

01:28:12.380 match that. There's 50 organizations, the left has, we can't survive with one, two or three of

01:28:18.220 those doing small amounts of work, you have to have many big organizations doing that making up that

01:28:24.140 ground. Or you have to have, like I said, 4050 of those organizations like the left has. And we're

01:28:30.900 heading towards that. And you know, Charlie just pointed poignantly said it is that this is a we have

01:28:36.300 to keep telling people, this is the mindset shift. If you're not able to do this in places like

01:28:42.900 Wisconsin, you're not going to be able to do in Pennsylvania, that's a bigger state, you're not

01:28:47.440 going to be able to do places where we've never operated before, that we have to win. And we've

01:28:52.840 got to build these things, you know, in the Sun Belt and other places where you we have to defend

01:28:58.560 the Trump legacy, the populist legacy, whatever you want to call it, in order to win elections for the

01:29:04.480 next, you know, five, 10, 20 years. The Republicans need to win when Trump need to learn how to win

01:29:12.840 when Trump is not on the ballot. And otherwise, we're going to have a more structural issue. This

01:29:18.740 isn't by no means a black pill, everybody. This is not a I mean, it's not a wonderful night with

01:29:23.940 Wisconsin, we control the White House, we prove that we can win in presidential style elections. And

01:29:28.520 by the way, just for those of you keeping score at home, it used to be that we were always so

01:29:33.660 concerned that we could never win the presidential, but we could only win the special. So we've

01:29:38.480 actually solved the far more complex, high stakes riddle. It's Democrats that are now trying to

01:29:45.240 figure out the riddle of how they win a presidential election, especially via the Electoral College.

01:29:50.740 So there's no doom or gloom here. But we have to, we got to stay really focused on what are the

01:29:56.640 lessons here? Low prop is a lesson and the infrastructure is a lesson. The amount of money that needs to be

01:30:03.440 spent on full time professional. And I love what Tyler said there. And someone from Chicago just

01:30:11.580 sent me a message. Charlie, what you're talking about is a grassroots professional. It is a full

01:30:16.980 time grassroots operative. I think that's exactly right. I think it's very smart. It's when we just

01:30:23.240 say full time people, you know, they say, what are they like a full time taxi? No, no, it is a

01:30:27.480 grassroots professional. It is their full time job. It is what they do from the same way. Look,

01:30:34.820 if you have a leak in your sink, you call a plumber. If you have a car issue, you go to the mechanic.

01:30:39.700 If you want to win elections, you need grassroots professionals, otherwise known as community

01:30:44.680 organizers. Blake comments on again, this is not catastrophic. It's a wake up call. It's one that we

01:30:52.480 saw coming and that we knew was coming. Blake, what are the broad lessons for the Republican

01:30:58.240 movement here? Not just going into the midterms, but on a more macro, on a more macro basis?

01:31:05.260 Sure, sure. So especially as we've been saying, this is, it's a reflection that we have to be ready

01:31:13.160 for races where Donald Trump isn't on the ballot. I know we've, you know, he's been talking about

01:31:19.340 finding a way to go for a third term, but I will tell you, even if they find a way, it won't be

01:31:24.520 with Trump as the number one guy on the ballot, because that is definitely constitutionally out

01:31:29.280 of the picture. So you're going to have to have someone, we have to start, we have to develop the

01:31:36.680 strategy for winning a post-Trump GOP on a Trumpian message, we hope, on a Trumpian platform, but

01:31:42.620 there's clearly a singular charisma to Donald Trump that drives turnout, that really inspires people,

01:31:52.000 and we haven't seen it pan out that without that, you can muster a nationwide majority. We can still

01:32:00.080 win races, we can still do very well at the state level, but that tipping point of getting the national

01:32:04.600 majority that can save the country, you right now need Trump. And there's some systemic issues there

01:32:11.600 that we have made that bargain of the GOP has become more populist, it's become more economically

01:32:19.820 middle and even, you know, lower class, instead of having as many high-income voters. And what that

01:32:26.080 means is, you've swapped out a lot of the people who care the most about politics, and that's not to

01:32:34.480 say that that's a good thing, it's often a bad thing that a person cares obsessively about politics.

01:32:38.620 We have people who care a lot about their church, they have, they care a lot about their civic

01:32:43.560 organizations, they care a lot about their families. All of us have finite amounts of attention,

01:32:48.800 and if you care a ton about your church and a ton about your family, you have less amount of care

01:32:53.780 to invest into politics. And the left has a large share of the people who derive the most meaning in

01:33:02.640 their life from their political engagement. You go to church on Sunday, they go to their

01:33:08.700 Trans Lives Matters rally on Sunday, and that is church for them. You tithe to your church, they tithe

01:33:15.540 to this race, they would have money coming in from all across the country for this vote. They had money

01:33:22.060 going from all across the country to those Florida races, races they had no hope of winning,

01:33:26.380 and they got millions of dollars for it because some people just really get into that. For now,

01:33:32.920 the Democrats have a systemic advantage with people who care a ton and who are obsessive,

01:33:40.280 and this will possibly get more intense because things are happening in politics that will fire

01:33:46.040 them up. They're extremely fired up about Musk. I can see this. I can see this in places that

01:33:52.400 aren't even political, that people are all riled up about Elon Musk. They're all riled up about Doge.

01:33:58.580 They're all riled up about this or that thing that Trump is doing. And that will probably continue,

01:34:04.540 that there's always a natural balancing force to American politics. To give another example,

01:34:11.280 this happened to Obama. Obama wins a gigantic landslide in 2008. He wins Indiana as a, he turns Indiana

01:34:20.180 blue. You can look at how Indiana voted in this past election. That was a shocking result.

01:34:24.680 It was shocking.

01:34:25.320 And he gets 60 seats in the Senate. He gets a gigantic majority in the House. And two years

01:34:32.880 later, all of two years later, wiped out in the House, loses a ton of Senate seats, loses a ton more

01:34:38.680 Senate seats in 2014. He, he, like Obama is this hugely popular person who gets a ton of low prop voters

01:34:45.020 to come out for him. And yet the rubber band effect of American politics, the natural backlash his

01:34:50.780 success created, essentially created the modern Republican party at the state level. It massively

01:34:56.540 increased our power at the state level. And I think we're seeing some manifestation of that with

01:35:02.760 Trump. They came out, we were very happy. They came out very aggressive, like a cannonball,

01:35:07.980 one executive order after another, a lot of big things, things that are going to take a while to pan

01:35:13.940 out, you know, securing the border. We're very happy that the crossings at the border have dropped

01:35:18.660 to almost nothing, but the impact of that, if you're a normal person in a normal town, you're

01:35:23.660 not going to see that overnight. You're going to see it on a macro scale of months, years, decades,

01:35:28.640 even. Whereas people who have that moral trigger of they're securing the border and I'm super mad about

01:35:35.240 that because I hate borders, they're fired up now. They are donating all the money now. They are

01:35:40.300 obsessively reading all the articles shared on Facebook, on Instagram, on Daily Kos, on wherever

01:35:46.280 they get their articles these days. They're fired up now. They're going to be turning out to the max,

01:35:52.020 and that is going to lead to defeats. And we have to do our best to enhance our organizing capacity,

01:36:00.580 to limit those defeats, to turn some of those defeats into victories, and to make the most out of

01:36:06.940 this. This is a loss, but I see some people, you know, commenting on our chats that, like, this is

01:36:12.640 the end of the project. It is not the end of the project. This is not even a top 10 defeat in terms

01:36:19.040 of badness. Guys, this is a singular state Supreme Court race of which we are anticipating an uphill

01:36:24.960 battle. We won the presidency and the Senate and the House back in November. We won the top prize of

01:36:30.260 American politics and Turning Point played a role, and the president did it. We're good. This is just,

01:36:35.540 hey, it's a little bit of, just a little bit of, a little bit of an elbow, a little bit of a wake-up

01:36:40.560 call. Just take a deep breath. Don't be cocky. A little humility. Keep your head down and keep

01:36:47.820 working. Blake, continue. I agree with that analysis. There's nothing catastrophic here.

01:36:52.620 Yeah, and I'll say this, too, is, I mean, this is even more, shines the light on what do we have to do,

01:36:57.440 right? It's, yeah, baseball season just started. I love baseball because it's a game of adjustments,

01:37:03.600 and you constantly have these series going on, and you get punched in the face,

01:37:08.200 and then the team can come back out just in the example that Charlie gave and, you know,

01:37:13.640 correct a lot of things and, you know, with the new picture and, you know, fix some things

01:37:18.160 with better heading and everything else. You, we have this situation now where we're looking at this

01:37:22.900 and we're going, we can see very clearly what the differential is. We can see very clearly what you

01:37:28.060 have to do. We know how many people don't show up to vote. The question is, is, you know, like,

01:37:34.360 again, what Charlie was saying, how are you going to figure out how to get those people out to vote

01:37:38.460 when Trump's not on the ballot making it easy? Because people like him, they know him,

01:37:43.740 they want to show up for him. How do you do that? Well, it's, we know some of these things,

01:37:49.180 and we'll talk about them, but we know what it takes to get some of these people out. Anyways.

01:37:53.580 Nice. And yeah, just in terms of badness, I want to emphasize, this is not even our worst defeat

01:37:59.820 at the Wisconsin Supreme Court, because the one we had two years ago, that is what actually flipped

01:38:05.320 it from a conservative Supreme Court to a liberal one. This was a chance to take it back. That would

01:38:10.800 be great. There's cases unfolding right now that are unlikely to go our way that we were hoping would

01:38:16.280 go our way if we'd won this race. This will have a real impact. The reason we always compare it to

01:38:20.420 the House. This wasn't a House race, but Democrats have really learned that, oh, we can use

01:38:27.180 redistricting. We can create new district maps. They've developed this new weapon where what

01:38:32.200 they'll do is, in states with the blue Supreme Court, they will sue and say, actually, the

01:38:36.540 Constitution requires us to have a map that Democrats will always win all the House seats.

01:38:40.840 And the Supreme Court will be like, you're right. That's such a beautiful argument. And then

01:38:44.440 they'll just remake their House maps to have more Democrat seats. And that's why we don't have a

01:38:49.480 bigger majority now. We lost seats in, I believe, Louisiana. We lost a seat due to that. I think

01:38:54.580 we lost some seats in North Carolina due to that. And we'll probably lose a seat or two in Wisconsin

01:39:00.160 because of that. It's not the end of the world. These things have a way of not mattering quite as

01:39:06.640 much as you'd think because the voters don't always do what you expect them to. But it's a loss.

01:39:13.780 It is not a utterly catastrophic loss. We don't want to engage in catastrophic thinking here.

01:39:20.820 Well, and you make moves forward, right, which is you learn something from all of these things.

01:39:26.280 Today, there was a fantastic outcome, again, and this contributes to some of it. The statewide

01:39:32.980 referendum for voter ID in Wisconsin passed with, it's already done. They've already called it

01:39:40.000 significantly. It's passing with huge numbers. So it's huge numbers right now, which is really

01:39:47.320 crazy if you think about it, because it's like, how does a person not understand what they're electing

01:39:54.040 for Supreme Court, but supports voter ID that the left wants to completely undo? But I mean, look,

01:40:00.480 this is part of the education process, right? Which is that message has to be clear. You have to put

01:40:06.820 more bodies on the ground to help make that clear. The way I best describe it is like Mary Kay sales.

01:40:14.040 Everybody knows the Mary Kay saleswoman in their neighborhood. They know who that person is.

01:40:21.340 They understand that. They buy something from her because they don't want to eliminate the

01:40:25.040 relationship, right? She should go to church with her, everything else. And they know if I need

01:40:29.120 something, I'm going to go to her and she's going to knock on my door and I'm going to know her face to

01:40:34.780 face. That's what you need for elections. You have to have that Mary Kay saleswoman type approach

01:40:41.100 that, you know, bring cookies to your doorstep type of approach in the neighborly way to be able to

01:40:48.960 show people what to do and what's going on and that they can rely on you for that.

01:40:55.760 We've started the process of building that. We did that really effectively in Arizona. We had

01:40:59.440 that the elements of that on the ground in Wisconsin, but you've got to invest into that

01:41:05.100 deeply for that to be, to, to take hold and take root and to impact way down the line races like the

01:41:13.320 Supreme court race. And, you know, there are, there are positives right now. I mean, we're trending

01:41:18.680 towards entire counties flipping red from the last Supreme court race. We're likely going to see a

01:41:25.500 decent amount of those. But again, the Democrats are smart. The left is smart. They spend all their

01:41:30.980 time, energy and resources and Dane County, for example, which you can't lose Dane County by more

01:41:37.720 than 21, 22%, which means you got to get those Republicans out who have given up, uh, in those

01:41:44.320 places. You've got to win by more Waukesha. You can't let that slide even more. Ozaki, you know,

01:41:49.880 you get, you get a win. We, I think we lost those Ozaki last Supreme court race. So, you know, or if we

01:41:56.260 didn't, it was close. So, you know, you're, you're in this space now, um, no, we didn't lose the last

01:42:02.960 time, but it looks like we're going to far exceed, but like Kenosha, for example, we're bringing up,

01:42:07.280 you know, that is not going in enough of a good direction. Like you've got to turn out voters

01:42:13.300 that turned out for Donald Trump down in Kenosha. You know, again, that's a real working class

01:42:18.060 stretch there between Chicago and Milwaukee. They're right along there and Racine and Kenosha.

01:42:25.480 We've got, we're winning space. I mean, we're coming back from the Obama era, but we've got to

01:42:30.880 keep the foot on the gas. Blake, do you want to give an update of some sort? Is that what you're,

01:42:36.260 yeah, we'll just do what people have been asking for an update. The update is it's not really getting

01:42:41.360 any closer. We're down by about, uh, just under 12 points. Uh, so it has gotten better.

01:42:48.060 But now we're at 62% of the vote is in, it might, we might get into that nine, 10 point range. So

01:42:55.320 that's not great. That's, uh, but, and the experts are actually saying now they think that it's going

01:43:01.900 to expand. The lead's going to expand for Crawford. Yeah. I mean, we only have 61% still in Milwaukee.

01:43:07.700 So Milwaukee is apparently now behind what the overall result is. Uh, we have most, uh, it looks

01:43:15.140 like all of Kenosha and Racine are in. We, those, we narrowly lost those two. Those are places we won.

01:43:21.320 Uh, we have most of Waukesha going back. You have to win. I mean, really in a race like this,

01:43:26.260 you've got to bridge the gap between the Trump voter and this race. And I, the, the, the gap didn't

01:43:34.980 close very much in Kenosha, uh, Racine, I think I'm going to pull it up. I think we won that last

01:43:42.720 time. And that's, that's a problem. That's a real problem. Yeah. It was close. It was very narrow,

01:43:49.080 but very similar type results, but it was as positive. And Brad might end up winning that,

01:43:54.580 you know, when it's all said and done, cause it's within just a few hundred votes, but you got to win

01:43:59.940 these. You got to win these by a lot, uh, a lot more than where you're at right now. Brown County

01:44:05.500 is kind of an interesting story because it looks like Schimmel might, um, completely flip the odds

01:44:10.800 because last election, uh, Dan Kelly lost that by a few thousand votes. It looks like Brad Schimmel,

01:44:17.960 like Brown County is going. Let's, uh, yeah, let's, uh, draw on that because, uh, Andrew's asking,

01:44:22.100 how does this compare to 2023? That might be the better comparison than just last. Yeah. That's what

01:44:25.320 we're talking about. Yeah. So yeah, last 2023, 2023, first of all, we lost by 11 points. So we may

01:44:33.840 slightly beat that. We're a bit behind it now, but we might improve it. We'll see how that ends up

01:44:39.120 resolving, but it'll be pretty close. If you look at the map, uh, a big thing that stands out,

01:44:43.240 there's way less turnout in 23. That was already, we were getting pretty engaged talking about this

01:44:48.740 is important, but they had 1.8 million votes. We're at 1.5 million and we're not even two thirds done.

01:44:55.320 So we're going to beat the vote total from that one by 500, 600,000 votes, it looks like.

01:45:02.960 And so that's way massive increase in turnout on both sides for a similar outcome. And then,

01:45:09.680 yeah, looking at the individual places, uh, we lost Kenosha by a little bit more. We won Racine

01:45:18.200 County in that one. Uh, we're going to lose it narrowly here. We're going to have, yeah, we're good.

01:45:23.540 They lost, uh, Brown County in that one. It overall is a pretty similar map. Uh, we lost Dane County

01:45:30.080 82, 18 in that race. We're doing better than that now, but it's been trending against, you mentioned

01:45:36.160 20% as that sort of bare minimum threshold. We're now at 80, 20. That's five points behind where we

01:45:43.420 were in, uh, last November, for example. And Dan Kelly only won 18% of that vote. It was a bloodbath.

01:45:49.160 Mm-hmm. So you could end up there and that will be part of the story, right? Which is

01:45:54.260 you can't do that. You can't, you gotta, you gotta be, you gotta be like Trump. You gotta be

01:45:58.960 a 22, 23%, right? Which is again, part of that bridge gapping is you gotta lose Dane County by less

01:46:06.580 as a percentage. The problem is like, we're looking at this only 77% of the votes in, in Dane County right

01:46:12.500 now. There's a lot of votes that are going to end up being cast a lot more than last time in Dane

01:46:17.320 County. They made up, they can make up a ton of ground in Dane County with that. And that's what they

01:46:22.240 did. That's what they did. They made up some of these other places that went are probably going to go

01:46:27.220 light pink. I mean, Dan Kelly lost the entire Southwestern part of, of Wisconsin last time. It

01:46:34.500 doesn't look like Schimmel's going to lose the entire Southwestern part of the state. I'll be honest. We might

01:46:39.860 because those are the ones that are red are early turnout. And a lot of the counties have trended

01:46:44.100 blue a little bit over the course of tonight. Yeah. I mean, we'll see. I don't know. I mean,

01:46:50.580 we'll see what the outcome is. It's still a lot of votes to count in some of those places.

01:46:54.940 They're about 50%, I think it looks like, but you know, I can't imagine. I'm just looking at like

01:47:01.340 Vernon County and Crawford County. I don't think you're going to lose them, you know, lose those places,

01:47:08.240 by, I mean, you might, who knows? We'll see. Uh, you know, St. Croix County's in, uh, pretty much all

01:47:15.940 that votes there. You've got a very similar, I think vote turnout there. Yeah. It's a little bit

01:47:23.420 better in St. Croix County, but that's a place that you need to do better that Trump was, was doing

01:47:28.480 pretty good in. Um, yeah. I mean, story, the name of the story is like, we've got to get more of our,

01:47:34.520 our low prop voters out in each of these places, particularly again, Waukesha County is at 90%

01:47:41.680 now and we're still trending 58, 42. It's just not good enough. Like it's just, it's just not good

01:47:47.040 enough. You got to be at 61, 62%, which is what we were going for in Waukesha County. That's almost

01:47:53.760 exactly where Dan Kelly ended up. And at 58, 41 last time that that's not good enough. Like, and, uh,

01:48:04.000 that's a problem. It's a real problem. Yep. And in the end it is all turnout. We're already

01:48:09.320 well above the number of votes that he got in Waukesha two years ago. Oh yeah. It's all,

01:48:14.680 all the turnout is up across the board, but their turnout is up a lot too. And that's why we're going

01:48:22.000 to lose this one. It's, but I say turnout is up, but again, in perspective, turnout is way down from

01:48:28.880 what it was in either 2020 or in 2024. So in all of these non-presidential contests, it's a turnout

01:48:37.520 contest in terms of who loses less of the people that they got to vote in the last big election.

01:48:44.240 And it looks like they're going to lose a lesser total because they are fired up because they are

01:48:51.200 less, uh, attached to a particular candidate as opposed to just sort of being amped up in general.

01:48:58.880 And they, they want the win. I think you could reduce it to, they want it more right now.

01:49:05.160 Well, and here's the problem. Yes. And no, I, I will say though, it's just, yes, I think,

01:49:10.120 I think that is right. I just, it's just temperamentally the Democrats have remade

01:49:14.120 themselves where they had, they have a easier baseline of people that think politics and meaning

01:49:20.140 are directly correlated together. Our best voters, the ones that put Donald Trump back in the white

01:49:25.600 house, they kind of hate government and they hate politics and they take massive convincing and

01:49:31.660 nudging to vote at all and to get into the system. Just fine. We just got to work through that. And I

01:49:38.520 see it all the time on campuses. Our side asks more questions. Our side does more research.

01:49:45.600 Our side is more thorough and just trying to figure out like, well, is this person really trustworthy?

01:49:50.620 And Trump was able to overcome all of that with just this power of personality. And remember,

01:49:58.120 David Shore said that even with more turnout, Trump would have won 54% of that vote. And so

01:50:05.060 even more turnout would have elected Trump by more, which it's just remarkable. So we got, we have to

01:50:12.940 figure out the turnout issue and the Democrats are building this coalition, which is a very difficult

01:50:21.760 presidential coalition to keep alive. However, in off year elections, we are, we're going to be in some,

01:50:33.520 we're going to be in some choppy waters. Jack, your thoughts.

01:50:39.780 Yeah, Charlie. I mean, I think that, you know, it, it really comes down to most Republicans don't,

01:50:44.900 don't really talk about the working class. They don't talk to the working class. They don't really

01:50:49.380 have much understanding for the working class. When I, when I say this, I'm talking about like the,

01:50:53.740 the professional Republican consultant class types, the people who, you know, are supposed to be doing

01:50:59.700 this 24 seven, you know, they, they seem to think that you can get by with just saying like,

01:51:04.580 this person is like Trump. So vote without any, you know, without bringing up any type of

01:51:11.940 direct connection with that person without creating any actual excitement behind that person. And,

01:51:19.640 you know, or, or, or again, going to those individual members of coalitions to get them to

01:51:25.400 work. And I, I'm just going to fundamentally keep going back to this point. The professional

01:51:30.180 Republican class does not actually understand the Trump coalition, how the Trump coalition works.

01:51:37.040 They don't understand the different components of it. They don't understand the working class part

01:51:41.540 of it. I mean, do you think when I, when I'm go around Washington, DC, and I've, I've been all over

01:51:45.820 DC, I've been to Congress, I've gone around the different department buildings at the state

01:51:49.700 department today for the, uh, the first ladies event there, but you see these, the professional

01:51:53.820 Republican types. I'm not talking about the Trump admin, but I'm talking about the others.

01:51:57.060 They couldn't explain tariffs to you. They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the middle class.

01:52:01.080 They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the working class. They don't actually understand

01:52:04.920 how any of this stuff works or puts together. So when it comes to messaging, we, they, they just fall

01:52:10.760 back on these things that they think are safe. Like, Oh, Trump good. So vote for Trump like guy.

01:52:17.180 Like the, the story is not there whatsoever. There's no story that's being told. There's no message

01:52:22.880 that's being sent. And this is what, and we wrote about this in the book last year. This is what

01:52:26.100 Democrats are so good at. What do Democrats offer? Now I'm not saying, what do they believe? I'm not

01:52:30.300 saying what are they, what are their inherent, you know, drivers? I'm talking about what do they

01:52:33.420 actually offer? They offer a positive vision of the future, a positive vision of the future.

01:52:39.260 How many Republicans do that? Republicans tend to define themselves by what they're against.

01:52:42.900 We're anti-abortion. We're anti-liberal. We're anti-trans or anti-whatever, et cetera,

01:52:46.880 et cetera, et cetera. But as we, and rightfully so oppose all those things, what we're also not doing

01:52:51.820 for a long, a long time. And, and when you only have perhaps what 15 seconds is like the average

01:52:59.000 length of a tech talk video, Charlie, you know, um, better than anyone, but it's, it's like you

01:53:03.780 have just a time, tiny little amount of time to get that across. You've got to be able to convey

01:53:10.540 a positive vision of the future to a potential voter, or else they're just going to tune out and

01:53:16.540 say, well, this guy's just angry about stuff, this person over here. And I'm talking about your

01:53:20.520 like normie average voter, this person over here, like, again, if your name isn't Donald Trump and

01:53:26.060 you haven't been through, you know, the 12 labors of Hercules and the, the hero's journey that Trump

01:53:33.400 was on in front of the entire planet, you know, surviving a, you know, assassin's bullet from the

01:53:38.820 miracle by the hand of God himself, then guess what? You, you have to actually go back to regular

01:53:44.120 politics because regular political rules apply to you because again, your name is not Donald Trump.

01:53:49.580 And that's, that's something that I think a lot of Republicans need to understand.

01:53:55.720 Let's, uh, let's begin to kind of wrap it here. So any, what is the, the final count here?

01:54:01.180 Looks to be around 11 point margin. It's probably going to land around that, right, Tyler?

01:54:05.520 Yeah. It's going to be about 10, 11 points. It looks like, uh, you know, Schummel could gain a

01:54:11.240 little bit of ground with what is remaining. Uh, but you know, I'm not so sure Dane County,

01:54:17.560 again, still story is that he's at 80, 20, which is not good enough. Uh, Waukesha County is at 42,

01:54:23.700 58 or 58, 42. I should say Schummel, not good enough. Ozaki's pulled out ahead pretty similarly

01:54:30.500 to what we've seen. The results again, not good enough. We're hoping for, you know, a five point

01:54:35.960 margin or above there. So you look like you're going to end up 10, uh, you know, a 10 point deficit,

01:54:41.260 which is really unfortunate because again, you're looking at some of these places still and going,

01:54:46.760 wow, we were really close with flipping some counties. But like Blake said, the outcome was

01:54:54.040 if you started this race and you said, and I mean, many of the pundits that were there on the ground

01:54:59.140 said, all we've got to do is we've got to turn out an extra two, three, 400,000 votes, which we're

01:55:07.680 probably going to do. The, the goal of how many votes you want to turn out happened here. The problem

01:55:14.600 is the left also turned out more people and, and unfortunately they did it and they, they fund

01:55:21.740 those things and did it. So I think when we look at this, it looks like saying about two thirds of

01:55:27.080 the votes have been counted. We're at 1.6 million. We're probably going to hit about 2.2 million,

01:55:31.760 which is exactly what for 2.4 2 point. Yeah. It's going to be above 2.2 million. Wow. That's,

01:55:36.440 that's crazy. The expectations were at that high of level. It was going to benefit Brad Schimmel more,

01:55:41.300 uh, but we're going to have to look at dive more deeply into some of these counties and say, okay,

01:55:46.400 well, what happened? You know, how, how did we not win with a higher turnout on election day?

01:55:52.080 Well, I mean, it could be high turnout, but you lose the swing voters. That's always a possibility too.

01:55:57.640 So there, there's the turnout race of your base, but there's also, there are voters who

01:56:02.360 swing this way, swing that way. And they could have swung back away for any number of reasons.

01:56:08.620 So yeah, a couple of things. First of all, I would hesitate to say that this is a referendum

01:56:17.420 on Elon or Trump or Doge. This has been a thing for years now. This is almost an identical

01:56:22.900 Supreme court spring election result from spring of 2023 before Elon was even on the scene and

01:56:28.960 before Trump was the nominee, let alone the president of the United States. So you got to

01:56:32.900 prepare for the media narrative. Let's put 198 up. This is Tim Walsh and they're playing out their

01:56:37.900 economic populist, let's just say messaging. Democrats are going to try to go all in on

01:56:46.920 economic populism. We'll see if it works for them. It's going to be amazing. They're going

01:56:50.100 to be economic populists trying to win high propensity suburban voters. Honestly, I, they

01:56:54.700 probably could get it done. High propensity suburban voters at our college educator will vote for

01:56:58.360 anything. They'll vote for their kids to become trans. They'll vote for black lives matter. They'll vote

01:57:02.140 for their police station to get burned down. So maybe they'll do that. I don't know. I mean,

01:57:05.840 just the, the idea that high propensity voters are going to come back that read the New York

01:57:10.720 times and listen to NPR are going to come back to the middle, even though, Hey, uh, my name

01:57:15.160 is Alexandria Kaiser Cortez. I'm going to take your home and your 401k, but I won't call you

01:57:20.280 a racist might work. Honestly. Uh, I know a lot of people in the suburbs, Atlanta that would

01:57:25.840 love that message. Like, well, so if I don't have a home and I don't have money, but I'm not

01:57:30.120 a racist deal, I'll vote for you. That's basically what the Democrats are selling. I'm going to take

01:57:35.120 all your stuff. I won't call you a race. So we have to prepare for that. And look again,

01:57:41.120 guys, we, we won the biggest of all the prizes. We won the greatest accomplishment. I in probably

01:57:46.940 American, American political history is elections like this can serve as momentary little cautionary

01:57:53.780 warning signs. Ooh, we got to fix that. We got to rebuild that. We got to fix that. We got to fix

01:58:00.200 that. And if we ignore them, then they bubble up and they become massive, massive issues.

01:58:06.960 I want to also say this. Thank you guys who have emailed us freedom at charliekirk.com and that have

01:58:10.840 been watching us. Uh, we're going to be giving away a 10 signed MAGA hats. It's actually not this

01:58:15.920 one. This is just one I have in this specific studio, uh, 10 signed MAGA hats. Uh, if you guys show

01:58:21.400 that, you are subscribed, uh, to the Charlie Kirk show podcast. So in order to be subscribed to the

01:58:27.540 Charlie Kirk show podcast, you take out your phone and go to the podcast app, type in Charlie Kirk show

01:58:32.940 and screenshot it and email us proof of subscription freedom at charliekirk.com. And Ms. Daisy will get

01:58:39.000 10 of the first people that do that signed hats out to you. Uh, so we really appreciate that.

01:58:46.340 President Trump just put up a truth, social voter ID just approved in Wisconsin,

01:58:50.660 uh, Democrats fought, fought hard against this presumably so they can cheat. This is a big win

01:58:55.980 for Republicans. Maybe the biggest one of the night. You should allow us to win Wisconsin. Like

01:58:59.320 I just did in the presidential election for many years to come. Uh, that is loaded as 200 and that

01:59:05.340 is up on screen. So, uh, again, subscribe to the Charlie Kirk show podcast, email us freedom at

01:59:10.940 charliekirk.com proof of subscription. Let's go around the horn guys. Other thoughts, closing action

01:59:16.600 items. Uh, the grassroots right now are rather upset. I wouldn't say that they're pissed to say

01:59:22.280 they're a little bit ticked off with how things, uh, proceeded tonight. I think that we need to look

01:59:28.240 at the seated equivalent benefit. This is not us losing the house of representatives. It could be,

01:59:32.580 but it's not, it's definitely not us losing the United States Senate. It's not us losing the

01:59:37.300 presidency. We didn't lose a Senate race tonight. What we did is we got a window into the current state

01:59:42.960 of our politics and things that we need to fix. And sometimes that our movement needs to stop being

01:59:48.560 so high on our own supply and getting back down to the fundamental basics that we can build a

01:59:54.380 majoritarian mandate for governance for generations to come. Jack will go around the horn. Start with

02:00:00.680 you. Yeah. So once again, uh, just like in geopolitics here in, you know, regular domestic politics,

02:00:09.840 we learned that history is not ended. The end of history has ended politics have not ended.

02:00:17.340 Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are not the, uh, the final end of all politics. Turns out

02:00:24.400 that public opinion, and it turns out that doing the work actually still are required to win elections,

02:00:30.640 especially as I just keep saying this, if your name is not Donald Trump, you've got to work within

02:00:36.000 the confines of the coalition. You've got to work with Maha as well as the other members of the MAGA

02:00:42.460 coalition, all of the broad, uh, the broad sections. There are working class. If that had been engaged

02:00:48.200 is a huge, huge component. The union vote, obviously very big in Wisconsin, huge up there. You know,

02:00:55.060 that's a way to get engaged people and bring them out. Um, all of these things need to be done. But again,

02:01:00.180 this sort of, this sort of belief that, Oh, you can just sort of wave your hand and the GOP consultants

02:01:05.100 will say, Oh, this person is like Trump and you can go vote for them. It doesn't work. It's not

02:01:09.340 going to work. You still have to actually do the work day in day out. You need to put funding behind

02:01:14.700 people who are doing this 24 seven, the turning points, the turning point actions, the Scott

02:01:20.540 Presslers, the Clif Maloney's of the world, all of this stuff needs to be on the ground. If you want

02:01:26.060 elections to win, you do still have to eat your vitamins. You know, it's like, it's like everybody

02:01:30.940 wants to, uh, everybody, what's the old, uh, bodybuilding phrase? Like everybody wants big

02:01:34.940 muscles, but nobody wants to lift heavy things. Basically the same thing. Everybody wants to

02:01:38.780 win the elections, but nobody wants to do the heavy lifting.

02:01:43.660 Blake. Uh, I just wanted to flag. Uh, so we have had, uh, Valsico has, has been making many paid

02:01:51.100 donations. I can't read all of them because some of them have swear words, but he says, you know,

02:01:55.260 that the problem is we're not arresting enough people. I would say if you're dissatisfied with

02:02:01.100 the number of arrests, president Trump has been making in his second term, you might be

02:02:07.660 unpleasable because he's certainly on border related stuff that's ramped up. I, uh, I don't

02:02:13.980 think that is that issue is being ignored. I understand people are very frustrated with this

02:02:19.820 outcome. As we said, politics is a frustrating endeavor. It is inherently competitive. You

02:02:27.420 lose about half of the races. And even after you win, you certainly don't really get much more than

02:02:32.860 half of what you want. There is far more failure than success in politics. And part of politics is

02:02:40.620 you just have to deal with it. You have to accept that you have to move on. You have to keep fighting.

02:02:44.380 Charlie's always good on this, where he says, we have to keep fighting, not because we're always

02:02:48.700 going to win, not because it's necessarily that fun. We have to keep fighting because it's the

02:02:53.260 right thing to do. And that is why we do it. We do it because it is the right thing for the country.

02:02:59.420 It is the right thing for our families. It is the right thing according to our belief in God. And

02:03:05.660 that is why we're going to keep going at it. And sometimes there's going to be backlash. Sometimes

02:03:10.300 there's going to be shortfalls. Sometimes you're going to get an outcome like tonight, which is not

02:03:15.980 great, which I will note is still fine. We got the voter ID passed. We got two wins in the Florida

02:03:23.260 House races. We got wins tonight. We just decided we didn't succeed on the most difficult thing that

02:03:31.100 of the night and it didn't work out. That's just how it is in politics. We will move on. We shall try to

02:03:37.820 improve our strategy and hopefully future streams will be better ones. We had, we were around in

02:03:45.260 2022. 2022 was a bad night, bad series of nights. And two years later, we had 2024.

02:03:51.820 It was a very bad night. Yeah. 2022.

02:03:53.980 That was, that was, that was a bad week. That was a very, that was a bad year after that.

02:04:00.620 That was not good. No, no, I, I can, uh, Tyler close us out. Yeah. I was just going to say you,

02:04:07.500 we, we have no choice, but to fight harder for a permanent infrastructure. If there's anything

02:04:12.140 that we look at this, that the, the analogy that I, I go with Charlie is you can't build a tent,

02:04:21.020 you know, out of like out of paper, you know, and expect it to survive a hail storm.

02:04:25.580 Uh, you've got the, the, the right has built nothing permanent in most states. And I'm just

02:04:32.700 going to say it again, the right has built almost nothing permanent in most states.

02:04:36.780 Uh, and we're seeing some massive years of hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars

02:04:43.260 that have gone to Florida and Ohio that are just starting to turn because of the massive amount of

02:04:48.700 investment that was put in all throughout, you know, the Obama years and the prior to the Bush

02:04:52.700 years and the decades that went into that. But you've got to invest significantly into these states,

02:04:58.140 put the ground forces, the infrastructure and figure out how to build the community organizer

02:05:04.060 model that Charlie, you know, and I talk about all the time and our team talks about all the time

02:05:08.940 to have their relationships in order to win in each of these neighborhoods.

02:05:13.260 And that's where you turn a corner. You know, we did not chase enough votes to win this one,

02:05:17.900 but the votes were there to be chased. Uh, the, we did not, uh, win this election. We're not,

02:05:24.460 we don't lose this election because we didn't turn out more voters than last time. We turned out more

02:05:27.740 voters than the last time we hustled and we exp, you know, expended a ton of resources on volunteerism

02:05:35.660 and, and timely, uh, dedication to, to Wisconsin, but it's got to be longer. It's going to be deeper. It's

02:05:42.380 got to be, uh, more aggressive. And that's what the left has done in so many cases. And so,

02:05:48.860 you know, I'm very proud of the expansion and the, and the growth that's happened in Wisconsin,

02:05:53.660 but it's got to be more, we got to do more and we've got to focus on the other states,

02:05:57.420 the key target states, and we got to be thinking about 2032 and 2028 right now. I know it sounds

02:06:02.140 crazy, but 2028 is right around the corner and that has to frame our, all of our minds for 2026.

02:06:10.220 Thanks. That is well said. All right, everybody. Thank you guys for spending time to, with us

02:06:17.420 tonight. Thank you, Rob and Parker for giving us the deck. Uh, in closing, we won the two Florida

02:06:23.340 races, which is amazing. Look, God is good. God has a plan for all of this. And maybe God is trying

02:06:28.860 to humble us to kick us in the rear a little bit, to build that permanent infrastructure.

02:06:33.580 We won the voter ID. This was not a catastrophic night. We won the two house races. Now, if we lost those

02:06:38.700 in Florida, we've been having a much different conversation tonight. We need to think about

02:06:42.700 how to take more ground and it is a perplexing problem. It is a riddle. And I would love to have

02:06:47.580 you guys email us freedom at charliekirk.com how to get, how to defeat a side that believes politics

02:06:56.860 is their religion in an off year cycle. Oof, that is a, that is a difficult riddle to solve.

02:07:04.460 So I want to hear from you guys freedom at charliekirk.com. And again, thank you guys for

02:07:10.460 watching and listening. We'll be breaking this down on all of our respective shows here on real

02:07:14.460 America's voice on podcasting and wherever you guys hear us on radio every day. You can hear me

02:07:21.100 from 12 to two on real America's voice, Jack from 12 to two to three. Jack is also on the Salem, uh,

02:07:26.860 news channel on the Salem radio network as well. So, uh, great to have the entire roster here.

02:07:31.900 It's a wake up call, but we still control the white house. We control the Senate. We control

02:07:37.340 the house of representatives. So glory be to God. And let's just get back to work. Think critically

02:07:42.940 about these races. And I'll be honest. I can't believe we're doing this again. I told the team,

02:07:46.940 I said, didn't we just have an election like 140 days ago? It feels like Christmas was yesterday.

02:07:51.740 I was like, this is too soon. I need at least a little breathing room, but understand in November,

02:07:57.260 we got the New Jersey governor's race. We had the Virginia governor's race. We got a lot of

02:08:01.180 elections coming up in November and then a year from November. If you guys really want to get

02:08:06.220 spooked a year from November is the midterms and a year from late November, we will have

02:08:13.580 active presidential candidates for the 2028 election. It's crazy. That'll be happening a year

02:08:20.380 from November, late November year from late early December. We will have actively filed presidential

02:08:27.100 candidates. Let's just enjoy not always having politics and elections all the time.

02:08:33.660 Huge amount. I think it's unhealthy how politically obsessed we are. We should be much more focused on

02:08:38.940 culture, strong families, communities. And I say that as a political guy, it's just too much at times,

02:08:45.660 but the left wants us to be politically focused and less focused on raising kids and honoring God and

02:08:51.100 having faith. So keep those, the main thing, the main thing. Thank you guys. And again, subscribe to our

02:08:57.260 podcast and email us freedom at charliekirk.com. Thank you guys for watching, and we'll see you tomorrow.

02:09:02.140 Don't cry me as death.

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Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec - April 02, 2025

THOUGHTCRIME： The Wisconsin Election Special

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