John Bolton - December 29, 2025


A Bold Prediction - I Hope I'm Wrong (and end up with egg on my face)


Episode Stats


Length

9 minutes

Words per minute

172.6336

Word count

1,670

Sentence count

121

Harmful content

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A prediction that has been in the back of my head for a long time...and it's about to bite me in the behind. I think there will be another floor crosser before the Conservative Party Convention in just 30 days.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hi, it's John and welcome to the channel 450 a.m. Monday, December the 29th. I hope you're
00:00:08.680 having a great start to your Monday morning and happy new year to you. Just a couple of
00:00:12.760 days away from the big day, January 1st, big blue mug of coffee in hand, of course. I want
00:00:18.200 to sincerely thank you for being part of this channel this year. It's been remarkable. 43,000
00:00:25.380 subscribers here, you have changed my life in the last year and you need to believe
00:00:30.300 that. You have changed my life. It has been quite remarkable. So today I'm going to make
00:00:35.600 a prediction and I don't make predictions very often on this channel because they can
00:00:40.180 bite you in the behind. And this one could bite me in the behind within 30 days. But
00:00:45.720 I'm sincerely concerned about something. There was an article the other day that struck me
00:00:50.380 that it's been in the back of my head that I'm going to talk about in just a moment. But
00:00:55.220 I want to tell you this, if I'm wrong, nothing would make me happier. And there's
00:01:00.460 kind of a silver lining at the end of this, even if what I predict happens. Okay. So
00:01:04.440 what is coming up in 30 days? Well, in exactly 30 days, January 29th to 31st, the
00:01:12.220 Conservative Convention is happening here in my town, Calgary. And during this
00:01:17.900 convention, there will be a leadership review of Pierre Polyev. And right now, the
00:01:22.320 Conservatives are doing better in the polls. Now, keep in mind, keep in mind, and a lot
00:01:28.040 of people are going on about how great the polling numbers are for the Conservatives right
00:01:31.480 now. Keep in mind that one year ago, the Conservatives were up by 20 points. And here we are now. But
00:01:38.640 this is an article today. Tristan Hopper wrote this. As year ends, the Conservatives are polling
00:01:44.180 better than at any point since the election. But if Carney gets his majority via floor crossers,
00:01:50.440 it might not matter. And that's a concern right now. And my prediction is this.
00:01:57.160 There will be another floor crosser before the 29th of January. And I've already put in my calendar, 0.99
00:02:03.000 folks, I've already put it in 4 a.m., which I'll be up. On January the 29th, I've already put
00:02:09.700 Polyev Leadership Review. So that's the start of the convention here in Calgary. And I've already put
00:02:16.100 it in my calendar. I will come back here and I will admit I'm wrong or I will tell you how much
00:02:20.780 I was right on the 29th or thereabouts. It could be earlier than that because what I'm predicting is
00:02:25.800 that there will be another floor crosser and it will happen right before the Conservative Convention.
00:02:32.180 Why am I saying this? I'm going to go back to a couple of articles here.
00:02:34.900 This is Warren Kinsella. For those of you who don't know who Warren Kinsella is,
00:02:40.680 Warren's actually kind of a reasonable Liberal. I like reading him. He's connected
00:02:44.400 to the Liberal Party. Keep that in mind. Now, he isn't connected to the Liberal Party right now,
00:02:51.220 but he was part of Jean Chrétien's 1993 campaign team, if I remember correctly,
00:02:56.000 worked in the Chrétien government. So he knows people in the Liberal Party of Canada. He's done a
00:03:00.620 couple of articles here. The Conservatives are the real losers in 2025. He doesn't blame Pure
00:03:05.040 Polly if he actually blames you, if you're a card-carrying Conservative. But he also did this
00:03:11.620 article the other day that really caught my eye and it's been in the back of my head for a number
00:03:15.600 of days that has me almost convinced, unless it's a typo in this article, that the Conservatives will
00:03:21.620 have another floor crosser. There's somebody sitting in the Conservative caucus right now thinking,
00:03:26.940 I'm going to walk across the aisle, and the Liberals already know it.
00:03:33.700 Now, what's got me thinking this? Well, this article right here, Canada's political winner
00:03:39.320 of 2025, has been a disappointment. I'm just going to read you something I saw in this article the
00:03:45.220 other day. I don't think anybody else caught this, but I did. And it's been sitting there in the back
00:03:49.300 of my head, and the more I think about it, the more I think there is going to be another floor
00:03:53.100 crosser. So, this is the passage right here. Carney hasn't delivered on promises. As Prime
00:03:59.100 Minister, he has yet to deliver on his big promises. Most importantly, a way out of the
00:04:04.240 trade chaos Trump has unleashed on America's allies. Eight months into his mandate, Carney is
00:04:09.020 no closer to a trade deal, and he has been seemingly frozen out by the White House. He's been a
00:04:15.020 disappointment on other fronts too. The explosion in anti-Semitism, the foreign policy misfires,
00:04:19.780 the tendency to over-promise and under-deliver the lack of legislative achievements. And again,
00:04:25.780 Warren Kinsella, a reasonable Liberal, connected to the Liberals. No doubt people say things to him,
00:04:32.220 but here is the next paragraph, and unless it's a typo, Kinsella knows something's up.
00:04:37.700 But Carney is going to secure a parliamentary majority in the next few weeks.
00:04:43.420 I read that the other day, and I thought, it's got to be a typo. I think Warren Kinsella knows
00:04:54.180 something. He's moved the Liberal Party back to the political center, which is where the votes are,
00:04:58.900 and he's still very, very popular. Mark Carney is the total political newbie who overcame a huge
00:05:05.040 political deficit and is now on the precipice of a majority. Any way you slice it, that's a big
00:05:11.020 winner. But Carney is going to secure a parliamentary majority. I think Warren Kinsella knows something's
00:05:19.360 up. And let me ask you this. If you were a Conservative in the Conservative caucus right now,
00:05:25.900 not happy with Pierre Polyev's leadership, and you were looking for greener pastures,
00:05:31.760 and it's right across the aisle, you just walk across and you're on the Liberal side,
00:05:35.880 and they end up with a majority government. And you know that two other Conservatives have done
00:05:39.660 the same thing, which embarrassed Pierre Polyev. Michael Ma, Chris Dautremont, they're over there
00:05:44.660 right now. And you know that if you cross the aisle and you go over there, there's no way the
00:05:48.980 constituents who are going to be pissed off with you in your riding can vote you out until folks with
00:05:54.120 a majority government 2029. When would you do that? Because the Liberals desperately need to get rid
00:06:04.120 of Pierre Polyev. They don't like him. He's good. Even though he lost in April, he's very good at what
00:06:11.480 he does. The Liberal media hate the guy. They want to get rid of him as well. All of your YouTubers and
00:06:17.700 the people on social media say the Liberals' knives are out against Pierre Polyev, trying to put it in
00:06:21.620 his back. When would you walk across the aisle? You'd do it right before the Conservative convention.
00:06:26.620 All the media coverage wouldn't be about the Conservatives. It'd be about Pierre Polyev's
00:06:32.360 leadership. And how much more likely would Polyev's leadership review go down in flames for him
00:06:40.100 if they lost another member of Parliament that went over to the Liberal Party right before the
00:06:47.460 Conservative convention? Kinsella says Carney is going to secure a majority in the next few weeks, and I
00:06:54.220 think that's when it's going to happen. The knives will be out for Polyev if this happens just before 0.66
00:06:59.420 the Conservative convention. That's why I've got it on my calendar for the 29th, thereabouts,
00:07:04.740 where I'll come on this channel and say I was wrong, happily if I'm not right, but I'll also sit
00:07:10.340 there and say, see, I told you so. Polyev, I think it's a danger zone for Pierre Polyev right now.
00:07:17.160 Now, here's something you need to understand. So there is a silver lining here if only one person
00:07:23.460 crosses the aisle. You need to understand this, okay? There's this article from today in the National
00:07:29.980 Post, why a one-seat majority might be the worst case scenario for the federal Liberals. I'll put a
00:07:35.740 link in the description below. I'm just going to read a short bit of this to you because it can get
00:07:38.680 rather boring. So 172 is the magic majority government number? Technically, yes, but in reality,
00:07:45.600 172 caucus members or a one MP majority is not the panacea for the Liberals that many imagine it to be.
00:07:52.780 In fact, in many ways, it's the worst case scenario for a majority government, says Lyle Skinner,
00:07:58.300 a constitutional lawyer specializing in parliamentary law. And here's what's important
00:08:02.620 here. That's because the Speaker of the House of Commons, who does not vote unless needed to break a
00:08:08.200 tie, is Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia. Since the Liberals are without Scarpaleggia's vote,
00:08:13.820 that means they have 171 votes against a combined opposition vote of 171. But that is my prediction.
00:08:20.360 If you want to embarrass Pierre Polyev and you want him gone and you're moving over to the Liberals,
00:08:25.880 you're going to do it right before the convention in January. So, again, if you look at my calendar,
00:08:32.940 I've got it there, 4 a.m. on the 29th. If I'm wrong, I'll let you know. If I'm right, I'll let you know.
00:08:40.100 It could happen on the weekend. Who knows? But I'm thinking 30 days from now, we'll know whether
00:08:44.920 Pierre Polyev's time as the leader of the Conservative Party, whether those days are numbered.
00:08:52.080 So, that's my prediction. Okay. Going out on a ledge here. Thanks a lot for watching. If you
00:08:58.140 like the video, give me a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel. Ring the bell for notifications. Let
00:09:02.320 me know what you think in the comments below. Maybe I'll come back in a couple of days and read some
00:09:05.780 of your comments on this just to do a follow-up. I'll see you in the next one.
00:09:10.440 I'll see you in the next one.