A Bold Prediction - I Hope I'm Wrong (and end up with egg on my face)
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Summary
A prediction that has been in the back of my head for a long time...and it's about to bite me in the behind. I think there will be another floor crosser before the Conservative Party Convention in just 30 days.
Transcript
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Hi, it's John and welcome to the channel 450 a.m. Monday, December the 29th. I hope you're
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having a great start to your Monday morning and happy new year to you. Just a couple of
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days away from the big day, January 1st, big blue mug of coffee in hand, of course. I want
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to sincerely thank you for being part of this channel this year. It's been remarkable. 43,000
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subscribers here, you have changed my life in the last year and you need to believe
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that. You have changed my life. It has been quite remarkable. So today I'm going to make
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a prediction and I don't make predictions very often on this channel because they can
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bite you in the behind. And this one could bite me in the behind within 30 days. But
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I'm sincerely concerned about something. There was an article the other day that struck me
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that it's been in the back of my head that I'm going to talk about in just a moment. But
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I want to tell you this, if I'm wrong, nothing would make me happier. And there's
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kind of a silver lining at the end of this, even if what I predict happens. Okay. So
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what is coming up in 30 days? Well, in exactly 30 days, January 29th to 31st, the
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Conservative Convention is happening here in my town, Calgary. And during this
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convention, there will be a leadership review of Pierre Polyev. And right now, the
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Conservatives are doing better in the polls. Now, keep in mind, keep in mind, and a lot
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of people are going on about how great the polling numbers are for the Conservatives right
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now. Keep in mind that one year ago, the Conservatives were up by 20 points. And here we are now. But
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this is an article today. Tristan Hopper wrote this. As year ends, the Conservatives are polling
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better than at any point since the election. But if Carney gets his majority via floor crossers,
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it might not matter. And that's a concern right now. And my prediction is this.
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There will be another floor crosser before the 29th of January. And I've already put in my calendar,
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folks, I've already put it in 4 a.m., which I'll be up. On January the 29th, I've already put
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Polyev Leadership Review. So that's the start of the convention here in Calgary. And I've already put
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it in my calendar. I will come back here and I will admit I'm wrong or I will tell you how much
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I was right on the 29th or thereabouts. It could be earlier than that because what I'm predicting is
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that there will be another floor crosser and it will happen right before the Conservative Convention.
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Why am I saying this? I'm going to go back to a couple of articles here.
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This is Warren Kinsella. For those of you who don't know who Warren Kinsella is,
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Warren's actually kind of a reasonable Liberal. I like reading him. He's connected
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to the Liberal Party. Keep that in mind. Now, he isn't connected to the Liberal Party right now,
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but he was part of Jean Chrétien's 1993 campaign team, if I remember correctly,
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worked in the Chrétien government. So he knows people in the Liberal Party of Canada. He's done a
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couple of articles here. The Conservatives are the real losers in 2025. He doesn't blame Pure
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Polly if he actually blames you, if you're a card-carrying Conservative. But he also did this
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article the other day that really caught my eye and it's been in the back of my head for a number
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of days that has me almost convinced, unless it's a typo in this article, that the Conservatives will
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have another floor crosser. There's somebody sitting in the Conservative caucus right now thinking,
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I'm going to walk across the aisle, and the Liberals already know it.
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Now, what's got me thinking this? Well, this article right here, Canada's political winner
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of 2025, has been a disappointment. I'm just going to read you something I saw in this article the
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other day. I don't think anybody else caught this, but I did. And it's been sitting there in the back
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of my head, and the more I think about it, the more I think there is going to be another floor
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crosser. So, this is the passage right here. Carney hasn't delivered on promises. As Prime
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Minister, he has yet to deliver on his big promises. Most importantly, a way out of the
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trade chaos Trump has unleashed on America's allies. Eight months into his mandate, Carney is
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no closer to a trade deal, and he has been seemingly frozen out by the White House. He's been a
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disappointment on other fronts too. The explosion in anti-Semitism, the foreign policy misfires,
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the tendency to over-promise and under-deliver the lack of legislative achievements. And again,
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Warren Kinsella, a reasonable Liberal, connected to the Liberals. No doubt people say things to him,
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but here is the next paragraph, and unless it's a typo, Kinsella knows something's up.
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But Carney is going to secure a parliamentary majority in the next few weeks.
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I read that the other day, and I thought, it's got to be a typo. I think Warren Kinsella knows
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something. He's moved the Liberal Party back to the political center, which is where the votes are,
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and he's still very, very popular. Mark Carney is the total political newbie who overcame a huge
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political deficit and is now on the precipice of a majority. Any way you slice it, that's a big
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winner. But Carney is going to secure a parliamentary majority. I think Warren Kinsella knows something's
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up. And let me ask you this. If you were a Conservative in the Conservative caucus right now,
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not happy with Pierre Polyev's leadership, and you were looking for greener pastures,
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and it's right across the aisle, you just walk across and you're on the Liberal side,
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and they end up with a majority government. And you know that two other Conservatives have done
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the same thing, which embarrassed Pierre Polyev. Michael Ma, Chris Dautremont, they're over there
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right now. And you know that if you cross the aisle and you go over there, there's no way the
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constituents who are going to be pissed off with you in your riding can vote you out until folks with
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a majority government 2029. When would you do that? Because the Liberals desperately need to get rid
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of Pierre Polyev. They don't like him. He's good. Even though he lost in April, he's very good at what
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he does. The Liberal media hate the guy. They want to get rid of him as well. All of your YouTubers and
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the people on social media say the Liberals' knives are out against Pierre Polyev, trying to put it in
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his back. When would you walk across the aisle? You'd do it right before the Conservative convention.
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All the media coverage wouldn't be about the Conservatives. It'd be about Pierre Polyev's
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leadership. And how much more likely would Polyev's leadership review go down in flames for him
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if they lost another member of Parliament that went over to the Liberal Party right before the
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Conservative convention? Kinsella says Carney is going to secure a majority in the next few weeks, and I
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think that's when it's going to happen. The knives will be out for Polyev if this happens just before
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the Conservative convention. That's why I've got it on my calendar for the 29th, thereabouts,
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where I'll come on this channel and say I was wrong, happily if I'm not right, but I'll also sit
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there and say, see, I told you so. Polyev, I think it's a danger zone for Pierre Polyev right now.
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Now, here's something you need to understand. So there is a silver lining here if only one person
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crosses the aisle. You need to understand this, okay? There's this article from today in the National
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Post, why a one-seat majority might be the worst case scenario for the federal Liberals. I'll put a
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link in the description below. I'm just going to read a short bit of this to you because it can get
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rather boring. So 172 is the magic majority government number? Technically, yes, but in reality,
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172 caucus members or a one MP majority is not the panacea for the Liberals that many imagine it to be.
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In fact, in many ways, it's the worst case scenario for a majority government, says Lyle Skinner,
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a constitutional lawyer specializing in parliamentary law. And here's what's important
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here. That's because the Speaker of the House of Commons, who does not vote unless needed to break a
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tie, is Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia. Since the Liberals are without Scarpaleggia's vote,
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that means they have 171 votes against a combined opposition vote of 171. But that is my prediction.
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If you want to embarrass Pierre Polyev and you want him gone and you're moving over to the Liberals,
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you're going to do it right before the convention in January. So, again, if you look at my calendar,
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I've got it there, 4 a.m. on the 29th. If I'm wrong, I'll let you know. If I'm right, I'll let you know.
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It could happen on the weekend. Who knows? But I'm thinking 30 days from now, we'll know whether
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Pierre Polyev's time as the leader of the Conservative Party, whether those days are numbered.
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So, that's my prediction. Okay. Going out on a ledge here. Thanks a lot for watching. If you
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like the video, give me a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel. Ring the bell for notifications. Let
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me know what you think in the comments below. Maybe I'll come back in a couple of days and read some
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of your comments on this just to do a follow-up. I'll see you in the next one.