John Bolton - December 31, 2024


The Boldest Canadian Political Prediction On The Internet


Episode Stats


Length

6 minutes

Words per minute

194.0143

Word count

1,303

Sentence count

124

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

It's the last day of the year and it's time to make a bold political prediction for 2020. I'll tell you who's going to be the next Prime Minister of Canada and why it'll be different than the last election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hi, it's John, and welcome to the channel. Great to have you along today, last day of the year.
00:00:04.720 It is December the 31st, 4.54 a.m. I've got the big blue mug of coffee this morning,
00:00:11.000 about to go up and warm it up. This one's getting a little bit cool.
00:00:15.380 And today, I am going to make a prediction. Now, I said, you know, a few videos ago,
00:00:20.400 predictions are BS. Yeah, making political predictions is just fine. But today,
00:00:24.780 I'm making a prediction that no one else will be making on the internet today.
00:00:29.560 I can guarantee it. If you see somebody else who makes this prediction today,
00:00:33.680 you let me know about it in the comments. But I guarantee you'll not be able to find anybody else
00:00:38.540 going as bold as I am going today. And I woke up this morning thinking about this, folks.
00:00:44.460 This is the kind of stuff that wakes me up at night. And it haunts my dreams, too. You'll get
00:00:50.180 the idea in just a minute. So, I said a few videos ago that past behavior is a good way to predict
00:00:55.720 future behavior. And I believe politics are the same. Past politics are a good way to predict future
00:01:01.620 politics. You probably saw the poll numbers from yesterday. This is unbelievable. Trudeau liberals
00:01:09.280 reach all-time low in polls at 16%. I mean, this is just amazing. Look at the numbers here. 45% for
00:01:17.780 the conservatives. This is a 29% gap. I'm also wondering about this rise in the NDP. Who are
00:01:24.040 you people? Jagmeet Singh is the biggest piece of blank in Canadian political history. I did a video
00:01:30.520 on it. More than 100,000 views on that one, folks. He's the guy that's kept Trudeau in power.
00:01:37.380 Singh's the real problem here. I hate Justin Trudeau, but Singh's even worse, as far as I'm concerned.
00:01:43.240 But 16% right now, it's unreal to think this is where we are in Canadian politics. So,
00:01:48.840 Trudeau has to go, right? And how is he going to go? Well, there's a number of different options
00:01:54.720 here. Now, if we look at 1993, we're in the same territory now with the liberals. If you look at
00:02:00.760 the National Post story, and that poll right there, that's a screen capture from the National Post. I'll
00:02:05.700 put a link in the description. They say the conservatives in 93, when they got wiped out, they were at
00:02:11.140 16.03% in the polls. So, it's almost exactly the same. So, let's look at what happened in that
00:02:17.700 election. By the way, this is the only election. I did not vote conservative in a federal election.
00:02:23.340 The only one. I voted, I don't think I voted for a liberal or NDP or not a traitor to my country or
00:02:30.660 anything. I voted for a party called the National Party. I don't even think they were a national party
00:02:36.560 at the time. And the guy's name, if I remember correctly, I have to look it up. I think his name
00:02:39.880 was Andy Boyle. But it was a protest vote because I was sick of Brian Mulroney at the time, as most
00:02:44.920 conservatives were. So, I did not vote conservative in this election. But this is from Kim Campbell's
00:02:50.360 Wikipedia page. So, I'll put it up on screen right now. I wouldn't suggest going to Wikipedia. Lots
00:02:54.160 of misinformation on there. But this is just history. This is how I remember it. So, let me read this to
00:02:59.100 you. Mulroney entered 1993 facing a federal election. By then, his popularity had markedly declined.
00:03:05.780 And polls suggested that the Tories would be heavily defeated if he led them into that year's
00:03:10.660 election. Does this sound familiar, folks? In February 1993, Mulroney announced his retirement
00:03:16.720 from politics to take effect after his successor had been chosen. Campbell entered the party leadership
00:03:22.520 race to succeed Mulroney. Campbell had served in four cabinet portfolios prior to running for the
00:03:28.740 party leadership, including three years as Minister of Justice, and garnered the support of more than half
00:03:33.320 the PC caucus when she declared for the leadership. She defeated Jacques Charest at the Progressive
00:03:38.700 Conservative Leadership Convention that June, and Governor General Raina Titian appointed her
00:03:43.420 Prime Minister on June 25th. Now, let me just make this clear. I don't consider Kim Campbell a Prime
00:03:48.440 Minister of this country, even though history does. She was never voted in as Prime Minister. She got the
00:03:53.200 job by default. But this is exactly what's going to happen and play out until October when we have an
00:03:58.980 election. There will not be a non-confidence vote. There will be a non-confidence vote, but the
00:04:02.840 government will not be voted down. The NDP, as I said yesterday, are not going to support peer
00:04:07.720 poly. They just won't do it because they hate you if you're a conservative. That was my video yesterday.
00:04:12.920 But the other option that hasn't really been talked about much here is maybe here, Trudeau, if he resigns,
00:04:18.360 he does it in disgrace. He may prorogue, which is kind of dirty politics, but he may say,
00:04:23.200 I'll stick around for a number of months until we find a new leader. That's a possibility as well.
00:04:27.320 And I think it's the easiest way out for him. He can just kind of bow out, kind of fade away into
00:04:31.680 the background and let politics in the Liberal Party kind of happen so that it kind of takes the
00:04:37.480 focus off of him. That might be something that happens. And then the next person that's chosen
00:04:42.260 as the Liberal Party leader will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister. And I say Prime Minister
00:04:48.060 because I don't declare you the Prime Minister if you haven't been voted that way. They'll be the
00:04:52.240 new Prime Minister of the country before an election in October. And the Liberals are going to get wiped out.
00:04:57.220 But they've got to stay around, folks. They cannot go to an election in the next couple of months.
00:05:01.960 Their numbers are at 16%. So they've got to somehow bring those numbers up. So they need a new leader.
00:05:06.700 October election. Again, the 16% even makes that more possible. That's what's going to happen. 0.97
00:05:12.240 So what is my prediction? Oh, and by the way, I mean, if you look at what the Liberals are doing right now,
00:05:18.540 they're lining up. They're lining up for really thick-souled Doc Martens to kick Trudeau out the 0.98
00:05:23.460 door. And they are. But a lot of them aren't saying it, but they feel the same way. So what is my bold
00:05:28.860 prediction for the future for the Liberal Party? Well, Stephen Harper was the next Conservative Prime
00:05:35.720 Minister after the 1993 wipeout. It took 13 years. I mean, 13 years in the wilderness for the
00:05:43.680 Conservatives. And the Liberals have got a lot of years in front of them after they get wiped out
00:05:48.380 in October. And how many years will that be? Probably two election cycles. So probably 10 years.
00:05:55.920 It could be even longer. Let's say it's 13 years. Well, if it's 13 years, somebody new will be coming
00:06:02.980 on the horizon for the Liberal Party. And here is what you'll not hear on the internet today. A new
00:06:08.000 person is going to show up. A savior for the Liberal Party is going to show up. Who will that savior be?
00:06:13.880 Well, a young man. Early 30s is going to appear on the horizon. This person will have promise.
00:06:20.900 This person, obviously, in the early 30s has youth. They'll have exuberance. They'll have excitement.
00:06:25.880 They'll have a familiar name. And they'll be wearing a pink shirt. And this person's name is Xavier
00:06:35.500 Trudeau. Sunny ways, folks. Have a happy new year. See you on the next one.