In a major breakthrough, Alberta and the federal government have signed a new energy deal that is supposed to pave the way for a pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast of Canada. The deal calls for Indigenous co-ownership of the pipeline, a suspension of clean energy regulations, and Alberta s promise to increase its industrial carbon tax.
00:00:00.000Well, the Kearney government has agreed to drop some environmental rules, which have been up to
00:00:10.460now major stumbling blocks in the rollout of a pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast.
00:00:16.560Alberta and the federal government have signed a new energy deal that is supposed to pave the way
00:00:21.860for a pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast. Prime Minister Kearney and Premier Daniel Smith
00:00:28.040met for an announcement in Calgary today. This is a really great day for Albertans. We have been
00:00:33.900working for some time on addressing the nine bad laws, as I like to call them, that have been
00:00:38.860impacting our investment climate here. And I'm pleased that we've reached an agreement to substantially
00:00:43.540work on removing and revising those laws. I think what it's going to do, especially with the removal
00:00:49.140of the emissions cap on Alberta, as well as the removal of the net zero power regs, I think it's
00:00:53.720going to unleash an incredible amount of investment and allow us to work together on important
00:00:58.380nation building projects. So it's the first step, I think, of what will be a few more steps
00:01:02.900we have to take together. But I'm very pleased that the prime minister has heard our concerns
00:01:06.920and responded to them. As he heard, Smith said the move will unleash all sorts of much needed
00:01:11.900investment in Alberta's oil and gas sector. Prime Minister Kearney says a pipeline delivering
00:01:17.600energy to Asia is the priority here. At the core of the agreement, of course, is a priority to have
00:01:24.780a pipeline to Asia. That's going to make Canada stronger, more independent, more resilient, more
00:01:33.620sustainable. Now, the feds may be easing some of the environmental hurdles, but there is still the
00:01:39.140matter of British Columbia's continued opposition to the project. Kearney says there will have to be
00:01:44.580cooperation from both BC and indigenous groups. At the heart of this is cooperation and partnership
00:01:51.720with indigenous peoples in Alberta, in British Columbia, as they're affected. Unprecedented
00:01:59.320opportunities for indigenous ownership, partnership, economic benefits, as well as substantial economic
00:02:06.840benefits for the people of British Columbia. So this is Canada working. Now, the agreement calls for
00:02:14.360indigenous co-ownership of the pipeline, suspension of clean energy regulations, and Alberta's promise
00:02:21.440to increase, increase its industrial carbon tax. Now, there have been some reports of opposition to the
00:02:28.880move from inside the Liberal caucus. So far, none of the climate hardliners have quit. We're going to
00:02:35.820have more reaction and analysis to this deal tomorrow, but with his immediate reaction, former Liberal MP,
00:02:42.780Dan McTague, who's also an energy analyst. Welcome to the show, Dan.
00:02:46.980Good to be here. And what a day after seven years of trying to tell the Donald Trump
00:02:51.860on the Liberal side, the left, that you've got to get these things done and you've got to get projects
00:02:56.700built, not just for the economic well-being, but for the stability of the nation, the ability for the
00:03:02.700nation to stay together. Got to do something. We'll see what the Liberals are real and whether or not
00:03:08.380they're honest about what they're prepared to do. But there's a lot of caveats to this, which I think
00:03:13.900has to be addressed. It won't be addressed necessarily by Premier Smith, who I think is
00:03:19.540enjoying the fact that there is finally something and maybe Liberals finally walking back 10 years of
00:03:25.940absolute lunacy. But the conditions that continue to apply will have implications for consumers. So
00:03:33.020that's my first reaction to what I'm seeing right now. And by the way, you're in the midst of a snowstorm
00:03:38.540out there in the Peterborough area. So if we have any slight disruptions in our communications,
00:03:45.960yeah, we'll understand because we appreciate you coming on. Okay. So did the Carney government go
00:03:52.680further than you thought they would? No, I think they've been able to say, hey,
00:03:58.180we can sell oil. No one in the world has to go through underground carbon storage or remove carbon
00:04:07.020and put it in the ground. No other country that is an oil producer, not Saudi Arabia, not Venezuela,
00:04:12.120not Russia, not Iran, not Iraq, not even the North Sea oil has to go through this kind of
00:04:18.340gyration in order to make it palatable to the Liberals. So I think it's conceding that they'd like
00:04:25.980to do these things, but you still have to live up to their conditions, which is net zero. And I think
00:04:29.740that's therein lies the problem. And it's not just, you know, a simple ideal that I'm concerned
00:04:35.280about. It's that it's going to cost consumers a lot of money, who in goodness name is going to now pay
00:04:40.840five, 10, 15, 20 cents a litre more over and above the industrial carbon tax over and above the clean
00:04:47.540fuel standard to pay for the cost of sequestration. This doesn't happen cheap. It doesn't happen for free.
00:04:52.740And since no other country in the world does it, you can't pass that on to customers in Asia
00:04:57.460because they'll simply go somewhere else to get their oil much cheaper. No, Canadian consumers
00:05:02.040may very well be holding the bag on this. And I think that's what I call, and you'll appreciate
00:05:06.900this, Mark, the CRTC rule. Consumers rarely take it into consideration.
00:05:13.180Yeah, I remember that from being there for five years. So thanks for reminding me. But they're
00:05:19.980dropping the emissions cap. I guess that was one bit of good news. I know that was a major bone of
00:05:27.340contention for the Alberta government, but the tax, the carbon tax, the industrial carbon tax is going
00:05:34.700to go up. So it's like, does one offset the other? You know, what do you make of that?
00:05:42.840Well, I think it makes Canadian oil much more uncompetitive. You know, you can have all the
00:05:47.160pipelines you want, but if the price goes up above the international median, or you have to take a
00:05:52.660haircut when it comes to what you're charging for your oil, what's the point of doing it? And so these
00:05:59.040questions have to be asked. No media asked the question, and I think in the commentary leading
00:06:04.700up to this, both to Mark Carney and to Danielle Smith, but I'll certainly be holding the questions.
00:06:10.240Look, I think it's an important decision. It's potentially a step in the right direction,
00:06:14.440but it fails significantly when it does not include, you know, things like removing carbon
00:06:22.120taxes, the industrial carbon tax, the clean fuel standard, and now an additional tax.
00:06:29.560Carbon sequestration, CCSU, carbon capture and underground storage means that you have to take,
00:06:36.940buy the CO2 from what you're producing, send it by pipeline to a particular place in Alberta,
00:06:41.960usually the Western sedimentary area that I think is well known for this. Force it in the ground,
00:06:48.500make sure it never comes up, because if you ever did, you'd kill tens of thousands of people.
00:06:52.500Concentration at that level would eliminate human life. But all that aside, it costs a lot of money.
00:06:58.900I have, as I said, heard anywhere from 10 to $60 billion to do this. How is that going to be paid for?
00:07:06.020Because it's not going to come from oil companies basically out of the goodness of their heart saying,
00:07:10.780hey, we're on board the Pathways groups saying we're going to simply absorb the cost as part of the cost of extracting oil and getting it to market.
00:07:19.160No, they're going to pass it on to consumers. And I think that's a real Achilles heel here that I think is going to get very little mention up until it starts to hit people at the pumps.
00:07:29.940The same way the consumer carbon tax for seven years was accepted by everybody until it cost them 20 cents a liter and they couldn't afford it.
00:07:40.240Now, this agreement calls for indigenous co-ownership of the project.
00:07:45.720And of course, B.C. has to go along with it.
00:07:48.600And up to this point, we've had nothing but opposition and intransigence from Premier Eby of B.C.
00:07:57.040I don't see him changing his mind. I don't see him thinking, oh, great, you know, I'm going to completely flip and approve this thing and go along with it.
00:08:07.240And so if B.C. in fact does have a veto, could this thing be stillborn, you know, right out of the gate?
00:08:14.500Yeah, I think B.C. is going to find itself as it did with the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, not having a constitutional ground in which to stand, to fight, to oppose and to use every tool in the toolbox.
00:08:26.900I think David Eby was the Solicitor General at the time when the Horgan NDP government tried the same stunt and found out the hard way that we have a constitution in this country and he's just going to have to put up or shut up, frankly.
00:08:38.820I say that because it cost Canadians 50 billion bucks thanks to obstruction by the government and their friends, their woke friends and their climate friends to try to stop a pipeline that was very much in need.
00:08:52.800Kinder Morgan basically said the federal government, you approve this, you have your stamp, the signature of the crown on this, we're going to sue you if you don't let us proceed with it.
00:09:01.680They said, yeah, we we agree with that. And it wound up costing you and I 50 billion dollars.
00:09:07.040So long before Eby has his little hissy fit, maybe Eby and the NDP in British Columbia would like to offer the rest of Canada 50 billion less than 10 percent.
00:09:16.940So 45 billion bucks net should go to the Canadian government as a result of the vandalism, the political vandalism and miscreancy that they were involved with.
00:09:25.380And there's no timetable that I have seen. Now, I have yet to pour over every single thing in this agreement, but I mean, to Pierre Polyev's point, there's been no discussion around when shovels are going to go in the ground and you start actually building this thing.
00:09:41.680So, you know, when you don't have that, there's always the sense that it may happen and it may not happen. Last word to you. Are we actually going to get a pipeline as a result of this deal?
00:09:51.580We have to. And if we don't, then the Liberals will fail. It'd be another Conservative government that will come forward and bring it forward.
00:09:59.080But anybody who thinks you're going to stand in the way of this is standing in the way of what is in the absolute interest of the country and those who are against it should simply step aside.
00:10:08.540You've had 10 years to vandalize the economy. We've had enough. We need to pay our bills. We need to get the country back on track. This is the only way to do it for now.
00:10:16.000Dan McTague, Canadians for Affordable Energy. Thank you so much for coming on the show, Dan. We really appreciate it.
00:10:22.160I'm now joined by Alex Brown, host of Not Sorry and director of the National Citizens Coalition. Welcome, Alex.
00:10:33.760Oh, a few things like this alleged pipeline deal. You've seen probably the bare bones of it, as I have. What are your initial thoughts of this thing?
00:10:44.200My initial thoughts are, is I'm not the negative type, but I am a realist. And I hope our viewers understand that they are driving this along, that they are altering the social license here.
00:10:56.620They are prying the Overton window open towards maybe our country will get its you-know-what together. But a win today for Danielle Smith could still be a loss tomorrow.
00:11:07.480We are seeing a lot of uncertainty in the language in this memorandum of understanding. We are obviously seeing that, you know, BC Premier David Eby and indigenous groups appear to be holding a kind of veto that they don't actually have to hold.
00:11:21.340Because as an interprovincial transportation matter, this is federal jurisdiction. And so I want to be optimistic about it. I'm looking at this memorandum. We're all studying it in real time.
00:11:32.380There are signs of life here, but there is also, you can see the exit ramp. You can see these rhetorical hedging of bets sprinkled throughout it when it comes to language, when it comes to the use of net zero. None of our allies are even using the term net zero anymore.
00:11:50.140And so I, I, I want to see this through. I want to see a bitumen pipeline to the Pacific coast. I want to see pathways. I want, I want us to work with our indigenous groups. I want us to do all these things, but I'm, I'm also seeing the chance for this to be just another disappointment for Albertans, the West and for Canada's energy recovery.
00:12:09.860I mean, the deal calls for indigenous co-ownership of the pipeline. That's usually not a major hurdle. It can be negotiated. Suspension of the clean energy regulations, which was good. Yeah. The cap, of course, that was a major bone of contention for the government, but Alberta has to promise to increase its industrial carbon price. I mean, it's already too high for some people.
00:12:32.900So that's kind of a, going to be a hard thing to sell, I think, to some of Danielle's supporters out there at the UCP. What do you think politically she's going to have to say to her members and her supporters and her opponents when she talks to them on the weekend?
00:12:53.080I think she's in a really difficult spot where she has so much to be proud of as, as Canada's great conservative premier. Scott Moe, of course, deserves some credit there, but these are still like the MOU itself opens with the equivalent of a net zero land acknowledgement that none of this can happen without it. Our allies, even competitors, they're not doing the same thing. I'm hearing sources, federal officials from sources that federal officials danced hard around that BC veto question in the technical briefing.
00:13:22.080If you want to invest in this, if you want to get fully on board with this, there are so many concerns that, you know, what happens if and when the BC government or indigenous bands outright refuse? If Ottawa is supposed to maintain the final decision making authority here, but if we get these left coast objections, what are the political consequences going to be? Like, is Alberta being set up once again to do all of the work, all of the work?
00:13:49.080And then if it doesn't work out, if they are obstructed, Ottawa can just hold its hand up and say, we tried. You can't get mad at us. We tried. And so she's going to be in a sort of a rock and a hard place. I think selling that over the days to come. It is a sign of optimism. There's some encouragement there, but I don't envy that task of having to communicate that to Alberta and energy stakeholders.
00:14:13.080Yeah. I mean, Smith said that this move, this announcement will unleash all sorts of much needed investment in Alberta's oil and gas sector.
00:14:22.080But, you know, do you really want to wade in there with billions of dollars when you've got an intransigent premier of British Columbia who has consistently said, I don't favor this project is bad.
00:14:33.080You know, it'll undermine projects that we already have under agreement and negotiation as far as the indigenous groups, because apparently these indigenous groups that he's been dealing with oppose the tanker band.
00:14:46.080I've got some I've got some quotes for you here because I, you know, I knew that this would be a problem as well.
00:14:52.080It is Maryland Slet, the president of the Coastal First Nations Great Bear Initiative. We will never allow oil tankers on our coast and that in this pipeline project will never happen.
00:15:03.080A statement from the Highland Nation in Kitimat. We met with Premier Daniel Smith over a decade ago.
00:15:09.080The community of Kitimat voted to oppose the Northern Gateway project.
00:15:12.080You know, this position was articulated clearly to Premier Smith during the meeting that we feel the same way regarding an oil pipeline and export facility in our territory.
00:15:21.080So so so those same roadblocks are still there. And David Eby, Canada's worst premier, a degrowth radical.
00:15:28.080He's not changing anytime soon. And I can say from being on the ground in B.C. here on all kinds of things for you is the concern with him is that because the B.C. conservatives are in such a tricky position at the moment who are shooting themselves in the foot.
00:15:43.080Let's be honest that he is going to be buoyed that actually he has his own version of a social license to oppose this.
00:15:51.080He's doing well in the polls, not because he is doing well. B.C. is in freefall.
00:15:55.080He's doing well in the polls because John Rustad is making a mess of things.
00:15:59.080And so come spring, if the B.C. NDP want to campaign on this and the conservatives haven't gotten it together provincially out here, this could be a real fight.
00:16:08.080And this this trump card that he shouldn't have could just lead to more of the same.
00:16:13.080And Premier Smith could be left holding the bag. And would you really want to be one of the first private investors to be the canary in the coal mine there, knowing that all of this is possible?
00:16:27.080Yeah, exactly. That was my point of my question.
00:16:30.080Is who would want to wait in there with investment capital in a very uncertain situation when you've got the B.C.
00:16:38.080or the Premier of B.C. saying, no, no, no.
00:16:40.080Then you've also got to deal with co-ownership with various groups, indigenous groups.
00:16:46.080You know, then you've got to you're going to see an elevated carbon tax.
00:16:51.080The industrial carbon tax is going to go up.
00:16:53.080So, yeah, the cap is gone, but there may not be enough here for companies to look and say, yeah, this is where I want to be.
00:17:01.080This is where I want to invest my money.
00:17:03.080I have to be a little bit skeptical here, but maybe I'm wrong.
00:17:44.080And it's great to see this memorandum.
00:17:47.080But when you dive into it and you see that it uses words like collaborate, consult, engage, catalyze, decatalyze, like all that instead of more times than it says pipeline.