Juno News - October 27, 2021
Alberta sends a clear message to the rest of the country
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Summary
The results of Alberta's municipal election have finally been released, and Vitor Marciano joins us to talk about the results and what they mean for the future of Alberta and the country. He also talks about the reasons why Albertans voted for two left-wing, socialist candidates in Calgary and Edmonton.
Transcript
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Alberta has sent a clear message to the rest of the country saying that our
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confederation is simply not working for them. Now will the Prime Minister and
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will the rest of the country listen? I'm Candice Malcolm and this is the Candice
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Malcolm Show. So today I want to talk about the results of the recent
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municipal election and those referenzums that happened out in Alberta. As you know
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it, True North covered the topic in depth. We even hosted a live show on the night
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of the election out in Alberta. We were joined by some great guests, our friends
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in Alberta. We had former leader of the opposition, Danielle Smith. We had rebel
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bureau chief, Sheila Gunn-Reed. We had the head of the YES campaign on that
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equalization question, Dr. Bill Buick, and we had a brilliant political advisor,
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Vitor Marciano. Well, the results of those referendums have finally been released,
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the official results. We sort of had a picture of what was happening, but the
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official results were finally released this week and we're going to bring back
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one of those guests to do a bit of a deep dive to dissect the results and
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analyze what it means for the country and what will happen next. But before any of
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that, I just want to say if you enjoy the Candice Malcolm Show, if you like what we
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Podcasts, don't forget to leave us a five-star review if you like the program and to
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subscribe to the Candice Malcolm Show. All right. So joining us today on the
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program is our friend Vitor Marciano. Vitor is an advisor to many small C
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conservative political parties and candidates over in his home in Edmonton, as
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well as across the province of Alberta, across Canada. So Vitor, thank you so much
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for joining us. It's my pleasure to be here. Thank you for having me on.
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Well, you joined us on that live election show that we did and you really helped us
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make sense of what's going on, particularly understanding how it is that
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Albertans vote for these sort of left-wing socialist candidates municipally,
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whereas they're sort of reliably staunch conservative voters, at least federally,
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usually provincially as well, although you did elect an NDP government a couple of
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years ago. So before we get into the results of the equalization, what did you
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make of that final result, the fact that you elected two sort of left-wing mayors in
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Calgary and Edmonton? And one of the first things, I think the first thing that Jody
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Gondek in Calgary did was declare a climate emergency and sort of capitulate to the
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Trudeau liberal message when it comes to climate alarmism.
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Well, I think the overall number for the equalization referendum and the election of
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the two mayors are linked. I think there was a little bit of the Jason Kenney effect in
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this. And both the left-wing, top left-wing mayoralty candidates benefited from the fact
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that right now our premier is decidedly unpopular and it's bringing down the numbers for
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conservatives across the whole. It wasn't uncommon for people from all over the province the next
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day to be texting each other saying, is the conservative movement dead in Alberta? And
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the answer is no, it's not. But it's hurting right now. And that hurting translated both
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into a slower result than would have been ideal on the equalization referendum and into Jody
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Gondek winning in Calgary and Amarjit Sohi winning in Edmonton. There's more to the municipal
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elections than just Kenny. But the fact that Kenny isn't popular right now doesn't help.
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Interesting. You say that the votes in equalization were as strong as it could be. I mean,
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62% is a huge majority. That's a decisive vote. Any politician walking away with 62% of the vote
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is pretty happy, Vitor. So interesting to hear you say that it wasn't quite what it could be.
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In all honesty, I've seen polling from 2018 and 2019 that had more than 60% of new Democratic voters
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then supporting doing something about equalization. I think there were an awful lot of people who went
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into the ballot box and said, I can vote no here and send Jason Kenney a message. Whereas a whole
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bunch of, you know, 62% of Albertans went into the box and said, I'm voting yes to send Justin Trudeau a
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message. There's sort of a fundamental understanding in Alberta that equalization as it's currently done
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is unfair. And it's unfair to Alberta. It's just not a fair system. And so there's this sense of that
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that's pervasive. Unfortunately, this question, this vote at this time became about more than just
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that. But still, 62%. It's almost two to one. That's a real number. That's a real vote.
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Well, on a similar topic there, one of the things that we discussed on election night and that was
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just really obvious throughout the entire lead up to the referendum was how little there was really
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coverage of it mentioned. But we didn't really see federal conservative MPs going out stumping for
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the question. We barely heard anything in the weeks leading up to it from Kenny. So it's interesting
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the media is now framing it as like, this is Jason Kenney's pet project. When really leading up to it,
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it was almost like he was distancing himself from it.
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My personal opinion has been that Jason Kenney's never been highly enthusiastic about this project.
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It was a campaign promise that he made because it was popular, but this is not an instinctive space
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for him. He is not one of these politicians that is looking forward to constitutional negotiations.
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He comes from the school that says, learn from Meech, learn from Charlottetown,
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never have constitutional negotiations again. There's an awful lot of Albertans who are like,
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yeah, learn from Meech, learn from Charlottetown, have constitutional negotiations when necessary.
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Just the mere fact that we can have those conversations is good for readjusting the
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mind frame of the rest of the country. And there's some reason to be hopeful about that.
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And well, and you really, you did sort of see the sort of lack of excitement from Kenny,
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but the idea that I think a lot of Albertans recognize is that Alberta should be learning
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from Quebec. You know, Quebec really knows how to put its interests first, to communicate
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for them. These previous referendums were kind of a pathway to getting more political power within
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the Canadian system. It seemed to me that Kenny chose the referendum route because the alternative
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was like, a lot of people talking about separation or independence. And this was kind of like a way
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out within the Canadian Confederation. So what do you think the results say about the future of
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I think when you combine the results coming out on the same day as a Trudeau cabinet that is
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decidedly anti-Alberta. I mean, that Trudeau cabinet, taking the old environment minister and putting
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him in charge of natural resources, taking the most radical, least practical, least normal person in
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his entire caucus and making him the environment minister, that is a shot. It's not a shot across
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the bow. That's a shot in the foot to Alberta with a threat that the gun's going to start moving up.
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It's a scary thing. I think alienation and a sense of needing to do something is going to increase
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dramatically over the next weeks and months. You know, there's going to be an awful lot of pressure
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on Kenny to fight Ottawa, something that really he hasn't been doing. He was kind of hired to fight
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Ottawa. You know, I was deeply involved in that original UCP leadership race. And there was an
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awful lot of feeling of, you know, Jason Kenny's a fighter and we need a fighter to go fight Justin
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Trudeau. And, you know, he's not the nicest guy in the race, but we don't need a nice guy. We need a tough
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And then Premier Kenny was pretty mild. And so I think, you know, that was the beginning of some
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of the problems that he's had. And he's got a chance now to act on them to change things around.
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But I'm not sure that that will necessarily happen.
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Yeah, I remember people talking about how, you know, even just the fact that he spoke French so
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fluently could be used as a way to improve Alberta's voice within the country to have our voice heard,
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have your voice heard in Quebec. And you're right, you don't really see a lot of that.
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It's horrible, actually, because let me give you a couple of examples just in the last month
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of brutal things that have happened in Quebec that impact Alberta that Jason Kenny's French never
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talked about. One, the Premier of Quebec has ruled that Quebec will stop the exploration of oil and
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gas inside Quebec. People don't know this, but Quebec has gas fields that are bigger than the gas
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fields of the North Sea. If Quebec wanted to explore its natural gas, if Quebec wanted to frack,
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like upstate New York and Pennsylvania do, Quebec would be a global exporter of liquid natural gas,
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and a significant one. But Quebec has chosen not to, one, because they don't want the extra money,
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because they would lose equalization. But when the Premier of one of our provinces announced that
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the exploration of oil and gas was shut down in this province, and in effect, is confiscating the
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resources of some companies, including Alberta companies, the very, very fluent in French Premier
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of Alberta said absolutely nothing. Then just last week, after Elections Canada announced that using the
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set formula that's in the Constitution, for the allocation of seats, that Alberta will get three new
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seats once seats are reallocated, and Quebec will lose one, the Premier of Quebec came out and said,
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not a chance. Quebec will never lose a seat. Quebec should get more seats. Percentages and
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proportional representation and any sort of fair representation don't matter. And the Premier of
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Alberta, again, was silent. Like, these are issues where he needs to be speaking up. He's just not speaking
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up. And it's part of the reason why he's got political problems right now. Certainly. What
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did you make of Justin Trudeau's response? He basically just said this is a partisan political
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thing, and that he doesn't seem like he's really going to weigh it very, very deeply. What do you
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think about Trudeau? I think Trudeau is going to try for as long as he can not to have constitutional
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discussions. And in the process, he's going to feed alienation into Alberta. But in some ways, Trudeau is
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going to be saved from his bad strategic decision to avoid these discussions by the fact that
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COVID is going to make all of the small provinces want constitutional discussions in the next 18 to
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24 months. This is the part that there's a weird confluence of timing happening here. Alberta wants to
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have constitutional discussions about equalization. But what's happening in all of the small provinces is
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that health care, which was 40, 45, 48% of their budgets, post-COVID, when they have to make changes
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to how their health care system works, and how their seniors care system works, health care is going to
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be 60% of their budgets. And they can't afford it. They can't find people to buy their bonds. I mean,
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Newfoundland is functionally bankrupt. Their bonds are being picked up by the government of Canada.
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The truth is most of the provinces, up to 40% of their bonds are being picked up by the government
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of Canada. Provinces can't print money, but they have the long-term year-over-year costs associated
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with dealing with COVID. And it's not dealing with COVID in the moment, it's dealing with how COVID
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has reprogrammed our brains in terms of thinking about seniors care and health care. So we're 18 to 24
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months from all these small provinces saying, yeah, we need to meet and discuss the constitution and
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the allocations of money and how health care get done. And that opens the door for Jason Kenney to
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insert equalization into the discussion. And to be fair to Jason yesterday, he did recognize that
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equalization is only one of Alberta's grievances. Once you open up the constitution, you start talking
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about things. There might be things that matter to us more than equalization to become trade-offs in
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the equalization health care discussion. Let's talk a little bit about health care, because I know we
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kind of got into this on election night, and you had that great piece over in the National Post where
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you were talking about why it is that Alberta and Jason Kenney couldn't do what Ron DeSantos did.
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You know, Ron DeSantos has become incredibly popular among the conservative base in the United States,
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and he's got a following of admirers up in Canada as well. So many people were saying,
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why can't we just do what Texas is doing? Why can't we do what Florida is doing? You know,
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the media are absolutely vicious to Ron DeSantos. They call him Ron Death Santos. And, you know,
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they accuse him of murder. Meanwhile, you know, Florida's booming. Everybody's moving to Florida.
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Everybody's moving their company to Florida. The real estate in Florida is going crazy. And the
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reason that everyone wants to be there is because it's like normal America again, like they've gone
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completely back. And you made the argument that, you know, even if Jason Kenney wanted to take that
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approach, the results would be drastically different. So why don't you explain that to us here?
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We can't handle the percentage numbers of COVID. COVID is real. But if you have enough capacity to
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absorb the punch, you have different policy options that you can choose. So in the United States,
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especially in the bigger states, but frankly, in any state relative to Canada,
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they have more hospital capacity to handle the small percentage of people who will get very sick
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when they get COVID. That small percentage of people wipes out our systems. So in Alberta,
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when we got to the level of 18 people per 100,000 were hospitalizable with COVID. That's 18 per 100,000.
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So if you think about it, if you're living somewhere in a medium sized city in Canada,
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and it's a 100,000 person city, if 18 people are sick at once with a disease, that overruns your
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hospital system. It's not actually built to handle that capacity. Whereas the Americans,
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some of these big states can handle 45 per 100,000, no problem. And so the net effect of that is that
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you can absorb the punch of people getting sick while you go to an open the economy strategy,
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recognize that 95, 96% of the people who get COVID will get a very mild version of it. 3% will get a
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version of it that is bad enough that they want to visit the hospital, but the hospital will send
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them home because they're still okay and, you know, monitor and be careful. And then you get that small
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3%, 2% that actually end up having to be hospitalized for a little bit. The vast majority of those will
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recover and be okay. But it's all about the numbers and your ability to absorb the punch that is COVID.
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In Canada, we don't have the hospital space. We've got publicly funded hospitals and we have just enough
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hospitals. And we have just enough hospitals run by middling ability bureaucrats who built centralized
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systems that are inflexible and can't adjust to the need to absorb a punch. And so those policy
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options are just not available to us. If we tried them in Canada, lots and lots of people would die.
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Doctors and nurses would flee the health system because it would just become too catastrophic and
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the pain would be too great. But our politicians don't want to talk about that because that's
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admitting that something that they bragged about for generations is actually a failure.
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Right. Like the elephant in the room here is that Canada's centralized, socialized healthcare system
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isn't doing very well. And on top of that, I mean, there's two kind of questions that come next.
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The first one is that we're now into our second year of COVID. We're approaching the two-year mark,
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you know, in a couple months here. Why haven't they done anything to increase the capacity? And then on the
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other side, Vitor, you have a situation where the hospitals and provinces are implementing vaccine
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mandates so that if you are a nurse or a doctor who objects to getting COVID vaccine for your own
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personal reasons or health reasons or whatever, you risk getting fired. In British Columbia,
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the nurses' union said that that was about 20% of the workforce. So you have a situation where
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nothing's changed in two years despite knowing that we need more ICU capacity. And because of politics
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and ideology, they're going to artificially reduce their capacity even further by potentially firing
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people who refuse to get in line with this ideology that everyone must be vaccinated.
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There's a variety of things that have caused this. One is that in, with the exception of Quebec,
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everybody had a very mild first wave. And at that point, early in the first wave, everybody is
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planning for special case medicine. We're going to build field hospitals. We're going to do things
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differently because this is a pandemic and it could be very deadly. And we just can't let a pandemic
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destroy our hospital system. So we're going to plan on doing things differently. And then that first wave
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wasn't that bad. And then the horrible bureaucrats and the cheapskate politicians, because the two go
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together, said, well, that wasn't too bad. We can handle this with our normal system. We can handle
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this with normal health care. And so they planned for the second wave with normal health care. And the
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second wave was bad in a lot of places, but the healthcare system could handle it. The third wave was
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bad in a lot of places and the healthcare systems started to get creaky. Alberta's the only one that's had a
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fourth wave yet. It's coming. Don't be smug if you're in another province. The virus is going to virus and it's coming for you.
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You might think you've done stuff right. You haven't. The vaccines won't protect you.
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They're not enough coverage. When you get that big fourth wave, it just smashes through it.
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And then because those bureaucrats have never, they literally stopped thinking about the special type of
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emergency triage medicine outside the bounds of normal medicine in May of 2020. And they kind of
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refuse to go back to it. Every now and then they pay lip service to it. Alberta, we kept talking
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about that we would reopen our specialized COVID hospitals that we built at very great expense,
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but no human being actually ever lay in a bed in there. The sort of bureaucrat that ends up running
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a centralized system isn't highly imaginative. Imaginativeness is not the skill set we hire for
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in that category. And then we get what we hire for. That seems to be the problem in a lot of
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different sectors. I want to ask you one final question here. And we talked a little bit about
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how Kenny didn't really campaign enough for this, but I want to shift and talk a little bit about the
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media and the way that they frame this question. Because one of the things that I've seen in the
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last couple of days since the last, I guess, days since the result came out is the media sort of
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trying to discredit this equalization result. Like Jason Kenney said that 62% of Albertans voted for
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this. And then a CBC reporter, or I think it was CTV reporter, corrected him saying, no, it wasn't 62%
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of Albertans. It was 62% of voters. And then you had some lawyer out at McGill saying that voter turnout
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was so low. So we shouldn't interpret this as being 62%. We should interpret it more like 25%,
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which, you know, any election in Canada could be seen through that lens, but you don't hear
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a bunch of professors and lawyers jumping out, making these points.
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I actually want to jump right in on that point. Justin Trudeau got 31% of what I think was a 58%
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turnout. So it's, he got about 18 and a half percent of the eligible voters in Canada voted for him.
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And he's prime minister with all of the totalitarian powers that come with it.
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Right. I don't hear, I don't hear all these professors jumping up and down saying he's
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Uh, this, the equalization referendum was weird in the sense that the only people campaigning
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for no were the professors and the media who always love going to the professors because it's,
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you know, so much easier than actually doing their jobs. We're happy to put the professors on.
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Um, they were cheerleading against this frankly, because Jason Kenney has a huge media problem.
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Uh, they, they really dislike him. They dislike him more than Albertans in general. Uh, he's handled
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the media very badly. Um, having, recognizing that the media aren't your friends is important.
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Running away from the media or running at the media all the time is not a particularly
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successful strategist strategy for conservative politics. It's funny because Jason Kenney,
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a successful federal cabinet minister was famous for the fact that he made time for the media,
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that he wasn't the negative, um, you know, run away from the media person that some elements of
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the, the Harper government were, uh, Jason Kenney premier is, got the worst media management strategy
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since Alison Redford. Well, I, I, I, you know, uh, we at true north have come up against that
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odd media strategy. So I, I won't, I won't try to refute that idea, but I, I, I generally speaking,
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Vitor think that the media in this country, particularly the media in Alberta, but, but even
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federally, uh, are never going to be fair to conservatives. And so instead of spending so much
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time trying to win them over and, and, and appeal to them and try to, you know, appease the global
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and male CBC crowd, uh, conservatives would be better, uh, would have better use of their time
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if they just opposed media, went through their own platforms and distributions. Again, the way that we
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see someone like Ron DeSantos, uh, doing in the U S like I said, they call him Ron DeSantos and he
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smacks them down when he, when they come to him with false information or they write a false story about
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him, he's unafraid to push back and explain to them why they're wrong. And I think that's why the
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conservative base love a politician like DeSantos so much. And for some reason, Kenny, um, you know,
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he does that a little bit too, but, uh, because of it, he, he just gets his awful, awful coverage.
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We could do a deep dive into the technical nature of how you manage the media and how you present
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messages. There's a, Jason Kenny stuck in a rut. Uh, his, his way of talking to Albertans hasn't changed.
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He needs a new result, but he's trying to do the same stuff he was doing before and get a new result.
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That's that's, that's not good. Uh, he should be the happy warrior who happily slaps down the media
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when they get it wrong. He's not in that happy warrior frame. Um, uh, our media in Alberta is
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particularly bad, uh, largely because it's almost non-existent. The, the, the number of media people
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in Alberta now is there might only be including all of the small town papers, all of the small town
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radio, uh, all of the small town television across the small cities, there might be fewer than 80 people
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working in news in the entire province. Wow. And because of that, and, and, and the ones that there
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are, are generally, you know, really young kids fresh out of J school. They're, they're the wokest of
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the woke, the leftist of the left. They know nothing. And they are, you're, you're not going
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to get a fair shake from them, but there is some value sometimes in trying to educate them.
00:24:01.060
Yeah, no, I, I see. I, I, I can attest to that Vitor. Cause I was out at the UCP convention in
00:24:06.580
Calgary a couple of years ago and the media room was like a closet. And there was only like three people
00:24:11.940
in there for the entire province, uh, this UCP conference. And they all, they were all very chummy
00:24:16.500
with each other and you couldn't tell which person worked for one organization from another. They all
00:24:21.060
had the exact same views. So. Yeah. They're not particularly competitive nowadays and it's,
00:24:25.860
it's a problem. And it had, it had a significant impact on the, on the, uh, municipal elections in
00:24:31.220
the sense that in Edmonton, especially, but across small town, Alberta, these elections got less media
00:24:37.220
coverage than any elections I've ever seen before. And when you take municipal elections, which are
00:24:42.020
nonpartisan in Alberta as therefore the voters don't have that, that cheat sheet of, oh, this
00:24:48.740
person's attached to that party. So they're largely going to have these types of principles. Um, and then
00:24:53.860
the media don't cover the race. It becomes solely a name recognition game and you know, new candidates
00:25:03.140
can't introduce new ideas. They can't build personas. And that's largely what we had. We either had
00:25:09.460
pure name recognition or frankly, both Edmonton and Calgary, the unions with their massive internal
00:25:16.740
union lists of unionized workers sending out the emails to their list saying, you know, these are
00:25:23.620
the people we would like you to vote for. And, you know, that you don't get a hundred percent
00:25:29.140
unanimity amongst union workers, but when you don't know anything about any of the candidates,
00:25:33.540
because the media haven't covered them and your union says, these are 12 good people,
00:25:37.540
the likelihood of those 12 good people getting elected is quite high.
00:25:40.740
Wow. Yeah. It's almost like, you know, the federal government giving billions and billions of dollars
00:25:45.140
a year to the media hasn't actually fixed the problem of the lack of local reporting. It's funny
00:25:49.860
how that, how that happens. The government subsidies don't work as, as, as intended, Vitor.
00:25:55.060
It seems to actually have accent, accentuated the lack of political reporting.
00:25:59.060
All right, Vitor, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for helping us make sense of everything
00:26:02.500
out in Alberta. It's great to have you on the show.
00:26:04.420
My pleasure being here. All right. Thank you so much for tuning in. I'm
00:26:07.300
Candice Malcolm and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.