Albertans cast advance ballots in record numbers
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Summary
In this week's show, we take a look at what we learned from advanced polling and the large number of Albertans who voted ahead of election day. We also explore how China is turning to Alberta for oil due to its ongoing trade war with the United States, and remind you about Mark Carney's ties with China.
Transcript
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Canada's federal election will occur tomorrow on Monday, April 28th, and True North will be
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providing content from across the nation. As for this show, we'll take a quick look at what we
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learned from advanced polling and the large proportion of Albertans that voted ahead of
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election day. The Edmonton Centre riding will also be an interesting riding to watch this
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election as this will determine who takes over Randy Boissoneau's seat after he was forced to
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step down in November by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau following Boissoneau's many scandals.
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We'll also explore how China is turning to Alberta for oil due to its ongoing trade war with the United
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States and remind you about Mark Carney's ties with China. My name's Isaac Lamoureux and I'll cover all
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of these stories on the Alberta Roundup today. Let's hop into that first story now. So while
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there's not much time left to speculate about the election results, as we'll know who Canada's next
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Prime Minister is by tomorrow, Alberta is looking like it will be more blue than the rest of the
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country. As of Thursday's projections, 338 Canada projects that Alberta would see 31 out of 37
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federal districts go conservative, with five to the Liberals and one to the NDP. While I know it may be
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surprising that the NDP will win a seat given their party's downfall, this is of course projected in
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Edmonton Strathcona, an NDP bastion both federally and provincially. Rachel Notley dominated the seat
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provincially between 2008 and 2024, and it has been similarly held federally since then.
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Currently in Alberta, the Liberals hold two seats, as do the NDP, while the Conservatives hold 30 for a
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total of 34 districts. However, Alberta will be home to 37 districts this federal election. Two of the
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districts expected to lean towards the Liberals are in Calgary, while one is in Edmonton, in the Edmonton
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Centre riding. Then, 338 Canada has three Calgary ridings as toss-ups between the Liberals and
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Conservatives. Edmonton has five toss-ups between the two parties. Every single riding outside of the
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two major cities in Alberta is considered to be a safe Conservative seat. Still, no other region is
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projected to have a Conservative representation like Alberta. In second place is the Prairies, which is
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projected to have 19 out of 28 federal districts be Conservative, followed by seven Liberal ridings and
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two NDP ridings. Overall, however, 338 Canada is projecting a Liberal majority as of Thursday.
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But some have raised concerns about Canada's most popular poll aggregator. Juno News conducted its own
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poll, showing the Liberals and Conservatives were in a dead tie at 39% as of Wednesday. Juno News' poll was
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conducted by one persuasion among 1,507 Canadians, with a margin of error of 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
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Juno News also ran a seat model, which projected a Liberal minority. Some have suggested online that
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the record-breaking numbers at advanced polling proves that Canadians are eager for change and that
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the polls may be wrong, similar to what happened with Kamala Harris in the United States.
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Elections Canada estimated that around 7.3 million Canadians casted their advanced ballots between
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April 18th and 21st, which was a new record and a 20% increase in turnout at advanced polls compared
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to 2021. As for the provinces that saw the biggest representation of voters show up in advance,
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I ran some rough calculations based on slightly outdated total elector lists, but the Atlantic region
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actually came out ahead, with around 33% of PEI voters showing up in advance, followed by 32% of
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those in New Brunswick, and around 27% of Albertan voters casted their ballots in advance. The lowest
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percentage of a population that voted in advance was in Nunavut, where only around 4.5% of residents
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went in advance. Maybe that's because they aren't expecting big waits on election day. Over the advanced
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polling period, some Canadians reported waiting for hours in line. We saw a few interesting
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advanced polling stories come out of Alberta. Firstly, the polling station in Crossfield saw
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such a high turnout that the station ran out of ballots. A spokesperson for Elections Canada told
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True North that they were notified of the shortage and that it was rectified within the hour. There
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were also complaints about two Northern Albertan villages from residents who had their polling stations
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removed and had to end up driving long distances to their closest station. Elections Canada also
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revealed that they were still short hundreds of volunteers in four Alberta ridings. Hopefully,
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the problem can be sorted and no issues occur on election day. But moving on to our next story
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now, we'll take a quick look into a specific Albertan riding. Despite resigning from cabinet in
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November, Randy Boissoneau did not vacate his seat as the MP for Edmonton Centre. However, he did announce
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in March that he would not be seeking re-election. Despite the many controversies that plagued Randy,
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the new Liberal candidate, Eleanor Olszewski, will be in a tight race with Conservative candidate
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Saeed Ahmed. Going back to polling, as of Thursday, 338 Canada has the riding at 43% votes Liberal,
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38% Conservative, and 16% NDP. The poll aggregator gives the Conservatives a 22% chance of winning the
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riding. The Liberals replaced Boissoneau, who had the controversy surrounding his company,
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getting federal contracts, and his false Indigenous claims. However, they replaced him
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with Olszewski, a senior lawyer, army reservist, and pharmacist. Saeed Ahmed is a senior official in
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the Alberta Department of Health and came to Canada after being born into famine and civil war
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in Somalia. Since the last election, the riding's boundaries have shifted, meaning the Conservatives
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would have actually won by 700 votes under its current boundaries. The NDP also did pretty well in the
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last election and are expected to perform much worse this time around. The riding of Edmonton's
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downtown core has a younger population than average, with only 16% of people being 65 or older. Nearly
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3 in 10 households in the riding make $100,000 yearly or more, and a third of the population are
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visible minorities. Definitely a hot seat to watch, and we'll see whether that seat will flip from the
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Liberals to the Conservatives or whether people will forget about Randy.
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But hopping into our next story, which is about China turning away from U.S. oil and ramping up
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Canadian imports. According to Bloomberg, Chinese refiners have slashed U.S. oil purchase by roughly
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90% in recent months, while setting new records for Canadian imports. In March alone, 7.3 million
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barrels were shipped from Canada's Pacific coast to China, a figure expected to grow further this month.
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Conversely, Chinese oil imports from the U.S. have fallen from 29 million barrels in June
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to 3 million barrels monthly. Bloomberg said that the turning point came after the Trans Mountain
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Expansion Project opened last May, increasing Albertan oil exports to British Columbia's Pacific
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coast and expanding access to Alberta's oil sands for Asian buyers. China still imports more oil from
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Russia and the Middle East than from North America. Still, Canadian oil sands provide reliable and quality
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crude oil that China's refineries can process, while reducing China's reliance on coal and other
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climate-damaging energy sources. The surge in Canadian oil exports comes amid rising scrutiny
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of Liberal leader Mark Carney's anti-oil stance and ties to China. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith
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previously called out Carney for his continuous flip-flop on Canada's energy future and his vague,
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non-committal responses on key issues. She said, quote,
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So it would appear Carney is now just fine with Canada continuing to be 100% reliant on the United
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States to purchase all of our oil and gas and to purchase all of the fuel used by Ontario and
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Quebec from the U.S. through Line 5. Carney had previously told Smith he opposed Bill C-69,
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dubbed the No More Pipelines Bill, only to reverse course later and defend it. He also flip-flopped on
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supporting an oil and gas production cap, changing his position within days. Smith previously said,
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This has been the same story for the last 10 years. Liberals come to Alberta, smile for the
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cameras, tell everyone how much they are going to work with Alberta and support the energy sector.
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Then they leave, go home, and proceed to do everything in their power to roadblock and
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scare away investment from the energy sector. Conservative leader Pierre Polyefre has been
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calling out Carney's inconsistent energy positions and foreign entanglement for years. Polyefre said to
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It's a double standard. You make billions of dollars off foreign pipelines and you shut them
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down here at home, putting our people out of work. He also said that China was helping Carney in this
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election. Polyefre said, quote, Beijing has interfered both in the liberal leadership race,
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helping Mark Carney, and again in the general election to support Mr. Carney. The election results
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could affect Canada's future with China and the United States. The results, of course, will be in
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tomorrow. And again, True North will be covering it from coast to coast during election day.
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That wraps up this week's show. My name's Isaac Lamoureux, your host of the Alberta Roundup.