00:00:00.000No one denies Russia has significant Arctic interests.
00:00:13.620The U.S. has a long contested view of Canada over soccer claims on the Northwest Passage.
00:00:18.920The Northwest Passage is Canadian waters, period.
00:00:30.000You likely don't think much about Canada's Arctic, but the truth is, you should.
00:00:40.860For the first time in human history, an ocean which has been largely unusable is now revealing itself to the world.
00:00:47.960The opening of the Arctic will have profound consequences on the future of our country.
00:00:53.100For one, Canada will find itself at the center of new and critical trade routes.
00:00:58.300These trade routes have the power to reshape global trade as we know it.
00:01:02.200And two, more importantly, as Canada's enemies militarize their Arctic presence, Canada's own backyard may be turned into an arena of war.
00:01:10.980We can either rise to this monumental occasion or maintain our current path of inaction and seeming indifference to the civilization-changing shift and pay the consequences.
00:01:21.520Well, to figure out what is really going on, we're now joined by one of Canada's leading Arctic defense experts.
00:01:26.520He's a professor at the University of Calgary and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Professor Robert Huber.
00:01:33.380Professor, thank you so much for coming on.
00:01:36.900So I first want to have you outline the vulnerability of Canada in the Arctic right now.
00:01:42.700We've heard reports that Canada's Arctic icebreaker fleet are unable to patrol the high north in the winter and that our satellites are unable to get a full picture on who's entering our Arctic territory.
00:01:53.260And this is to say nothing at all over the fact that it appears no one is actually signing up for the military to help defend this country.
00:02:00.460Now, in my opinion, that's a bad mixture.
00:02:04.720How bad is it in the Arctic for Canada?
00:02:07.240Well, it's bad and it's getting worse.
00:02:09.400I mean, you're making reference to the Auditor General's report that just laid bare about despite government propaganda,
00:02:15.660and it is propaganda because they keep saying everything is well in hand.
00:02:19.260In fact, things are not well in hand in terms of our surveillance capability.
00:02:22.980We saw quite clearly with the many haps and balloons and other Chinese efforts to basically set up surveillance systems in and around the Canadian Arctic that we are not prepared for,
00:02:37.700even though experts have been warning of this problem coming.
00:02:40.200And so we've had a security threat in the Arctic since the beginning of the Cold War, and people tend to forget this.
00:02:47.780But the reality is that the whole nuclear deterrent, the whole effort to hold the Soviet Union from being able to take aggressive action in Europe or even go to nuclear war depended on us actually pulling our weight in the Arctic.
00:03:03.340And in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, one could argue that we did.
00:03:08.340And then when we started getting into the 1980s, we basically said the Cold War was over, we'll never have to worry about security in the Arctic, and we basically stopped doing anything.
00:03:17.780We upgraded the North Warning system, which was the dew line, which was central for any type of surveillance system.
00:03:24.800The last time that we gave it a meaningful upgrade was in 1985.
00:03:28.180We converted it from the dew line, we gave new technologies, and that was it.
00:03:34.260The last time that we built a large icebreaker was in 1969, and that's how long that the Louis-Saint-Laurent has been in service.
00:03:43.380Now, the one bright side in all of this is that we are in the process of having six offshore Arctic patrol vessels that have some capability of going into ice.
00:03:54.180In fact, they're performing better than what people were expecting them to do.
00:03:59.640But we have absolutely no capability in terms of underwater detection.
00:04:03.720And this, of course, is as we're seeing in the war in Ukraine, as we're seeing in terms of reports of Chinese capabilities.
00:04:10.820Not having any capability of having any surveillance for an underwater threat is, of course, ludicrous, given the fact that we see clear and present dangers in this particular context.
00:04:23.720Now, the other aspect that falls into this is this is all ties to traditional security.
00:04:29.200This is, of course, trying to stay aware of what our enemies in the north, and let's be blunt, it is the Russians and the Chinese that we have to be the most focused on in this regard.
00:04:39.900But at the same time, we are also doing a lot of lip service when it comes to the environmental security issues that are coming forward.
00:04:46.640And we're, you know, we pat ourselves on the back on trying to be, you know, do things green.
00:04:51.620But there are very large suggestions that unless you can get the Chinese and the Russians on board, and, of course, you've got that geopolitical threat going on, that they're not going to listen on this.
00:05:02.240It's that we have even further problems coming forward with how we try to figure out how to respond in that context.
00:05:09.740One of the things that we're seeing with climate change, and it is a very clear and present danger, is, of course, we're seeing all sorts of new requirements of what I guess you could call human security.
00:05:22.120It's not the nuclear missiles that, of course, that are designed to fly over the Arctic region that, by the way, are being expanded by everybody, Americans, Chinese, Russians, and is making a very changed nuclear environment for Canada.
00:05:37.820And, again, we're not paying attention to that either.
00:05:40.280But also on the ability to respond to flooding, to the fires, to the effects that climate change, of course, is having on the local communities.
00:05:49.680And, again, we get back to your original point about the incapabilities and the fact that our forces have been allowed to run down to numbers that are very difficult to respond.
00:06:01.540So, in a nutshell, if you want to talk about security threats to Canada, you can go from the human security issues.
00:06:06.680And, of course, we also have to remember, in terms of the fact that we have some of the largest social problems in the north in terms of education, health, and all types of human security crises that we are talking about, high suicide rates.
00:06:22.420So, we have the human security dilemma that doesn't seem to be solvable in terms of the fact that the numbers get worse rather than better.
00:06:29.460We have the climate change, and we're seeing clearly with the forest fires and the flooding how real this is and how much it's impacting.
00:06:36.940And we have a geopolitical environment where we see the Americans in the process of completely rebuilding their nuclear forces.
00:06:45.200We see the Russians talking about the use of nuclear weapons in a war environment.
00:06:49.400And we have to remind ourselves that the vast majority of Russian capabilities are in the north.
00:06:55.340And we have China that had sat for the longest time at 300 nuclear weapons.
00:06:59.900They are now up to 500 nuclear weapons.
00:07:02.160They are going probably to catch the Americans by the end of the decade.
00:07:06.320And they are developing delivery systems that clearly will have a capability to at least be near or even in the Arctic, not to attack the Arctic.
00:07:17.380It is about launching from where they think that they can then, of course, try to bring pressure on the Americans in the event, say, a war in Taiwan, South Korea, or any of the locations that people are talking about in this context.
00:07:31.180And so, you want to talk about insecurity threats in the Arctic?
00:07:34.200Every single type that you can name is in the Arctic as we speak.
00:07:37.860I want to play a clip for the audience of Chief of the Defence Staff General Wayne Ayer talking about his concern about Canada's military readiness to deploy and operate in the Arctic, saying he's very concerned about that.
00:07:51.860The first part really speaks to readiness, which has gotten me very concerned.
00:08:14.820And so, yeah, you've heard lots of commentary about the people situation in the Canadian Armed Forces.
00:08:21.340This is something that I am extremely concerned about.
00:08:23.360And as well, we've recently seen a video from the Vice Admiral of the Canadian Navy talking about how, even though there are two of the yet-to-be six Icebreaker Patrol, Harry DeWolf-class ships, the military, the Navy, can't operate both at the same time.
00:08:41.220And yet we're expected to have four more.
00:08:42.940However, how has the government allowed this to happen, where clearly the threat to the Arctic is there, it's one of the clearest threats to Canada, yet we can't even seem to operate what we have in the first place?
00:08:56.680Well, part of the problem, I mean, of course, the politicians are the ones that are failing to act.
00:09:02.800And this government has been at the lead of that particular parade.
00:09:07.820But part of the problem that we face is that the attention of Canadians is elsewhere.
00:09:11.880We are, we say we're an Arctic nation, we have the north in our national anthem, but the reality is we look southward.
00:09:21.040We have other issues that we are always more, we're more concerned about economics, in terms of housing, in terms of jobs.
00:09:30.040We were obviously more concerned when the pandemic hit.
00:09:33.460And so there isn't a sense within the Canadian public that this is something that we need to be spending the resources that are required.
00:09:42.460And in fact, we've been brought up in this field, this mythology that, well, don't worry, the Americans ultimately will take care of any true security problem that we face.
00:09:54.360And as a result, even though the government, to its credit, when it launched its defense policy back in 2017, strong, secure, and engaged, they actually noted that we needed to, of course, respond to Arctic capabilities.
00:10:07.000They talked about NORAD modernization.
00:10:09.740They talked about the need to work with the NATO allies, something that we haven't done before in the past.
00:10:15.200So there was the recognition and there was the talk that we had to do it.
00:10:20.180Here we are in 2024, and we have, of course, the head of the Canadian Navy, the head of the Canadian forces overall, saying, hey, nothing has really been done despite their best efforts.
00:10:31.100I can assure you that our military leadership has been trying very hard, at least in the last six or seven years, to try to remedy many of these problems.
00:10:41.800And this is a change even amongst the military.
00:10:43.640I mean, the military itself used to joke that if the Russians ever were to invade us, their biggest concern would be, how would they rescue the Russians?
00:10:52.740First of all, they weren't going to be doing it on a land invasion, but, you know, it was a bit of a red herring that was deliberately put forward to basically say to Canadians, hey, don't worry.
00:11:03.940And so, you know, previous heads of the chief defense staff, and it was the chief of defense staff that made those awful jokes and assessments, are also part of the problem in that they downplayed in the past, even though there were many people saying that, no, this threat is developing.
00:11:20.220I mean, this threat really starts developing as soon as we see Putin coming to power in 2000.
00:11:28.000And we can see that in the weapon capabilities that he develops, the fact that he uses military force and so forth.
00:11:33.920So, in other words, it shouldn't be a big surprise.
00:11:36.760But because we have downplayed it, the narrative has always been that the softer security issues are the real threat.
00:12:22.720And that has allowed governments, both conservative and liberal governments, though the conservatives need credit for getting the Arctic offshore patrol vessels.
00:12:32.880They do not have icebreaking capability, though they go through ice fairly well.
00:12:38.100In other words, you know, it's one of those gray areas just to be a little bit technically nerdy on it.
00:12:44.900But nevertheless, outside of that, we really don't have anything.
00:12:48.800We are so far behind on having any type of submarine capabilities.
00:12:53.020We're still trying to even have the conversation about that.
00:12:57.340The F-35s only reluctantly were brought in by this government to replace the F-18s.
00:13:03.800And remember, we got the F-18s in 1981.
00:13:06.960I dare say I don't think that you were even born in 1981.
00:13:09.800So it just gives you a bit of an idea of just how old these aircraft are.
00:13:13.720And so the fact that we have both a government and, you know, if I'm being honest, a military and I'd say amongst many of my colleagues saying, hey, there's no threat, Canadians.
00:13:24.620We need to focus on the social issues.
00:13:51.460But we have this inability to say, yes, we have to deal with the human security issues that are there.
00:13:56.380But we also have to be able to deal with this growing threat that we can identify.
00:14:01.000I mean, Putin makes it clear that he's going to use force as soon as he comes into power.
00:14:04.680As soon as he comes into power, what does he do?
00:14:06.520He uses military force to put down the Chetanian Revolution.
00:14:10.720And then in 2008, when Georgia starts talking about joining NATO, he basically shows again, no, you can't join NATO and I will use military force against you.
00:14:19.640And that eight-year war or eight-day war that they, you know, there were real problems with the Russian military, but they ultimately persevered.
00:14:27.160And remember the Ukrainian war, this will start in 2022.
00:14:59.120So again, we have this mythology in Canada.
00:15:02.220First of all, the international threat was, the international environment was not dangerous.
00:15:06.460And second of all, even if it was dangerous, the Americans will take care of it.
00:15:10.480And as a result, we've been willing to let the Canadian forces basically get to the point where we have the general heirs and general, not general, the admiral in charge of the Navy saying, we can't do things now because they've been allowed to be so problematic.
00:15:30.200So it's politicians, full stop, and this government in particular.
00:15:34.940But then again, it's the narrative that we within the, you know, have been feeding Canadians.
00:15:41.320No, there's not a threat, so don't worry about it.
00:15:45.780If there were really are, you know, limited resources, financial resources for this country to put to use in the Arctic,
00:15:52.560then wouldn't it make sense that Canada would scale back what we're sending overseas, whether it be not just to Ukraine, but in foreign aid as well, to actually defending our own territory against Russia?
00:16:05.680See, to me, that's what I'm not really understanding from what we hear from the government, that there are limited resources.
00:16:13.100We're not available to, we're not able to defund our Arctic defense when we have these other requirements.
00:16:19.160But if Russia is the main aggressor here, and we technically share an ocean border with Russia, shouldn't that money that we send away go to Canada's defense in the Arctic?
00:16:30.660Well, Harrison, there's two answers to your very, very skewed question here.
00:16:34.920The first one is the reality is that Russia, that is the major threat, as you point out, they have the nuclear capabilities.
00:16:42.780They are the ones that are being aggressive on all fronts.
00:16:46.600They've had a GDP roughly the same size as Canada throughout this entire period.
00:16:50.860Now, it varies some years, but if we're talking about from the year 2000 to 2024, this period that we see Russia redeveloping as a clear security threat to the West, their GDP, you know?
00:17:03.200So it's not a question that we can't do it.
00:17:05.880It's a question that we've made certain political decisions.
00:17:08.600Now, obviously, our social system, where the government has put its priorities for spending is very different from what the Russian government is.
00:17:19.440And I would, you know, truth be told, I'd rather be living in Canada than Russia any day.
00:17:25.200And that's a reflection of the fact that I think that we've got an amazing society and that the decisions on a whole are correct.
00:17:33.200But Russia, with a GDP roughly the size of Canada, has had a defense budget of $60 billion per year.
00:18:07.620And so you say, okay, well, should Canada, you know, Canada does have the resources.
00:18:11.360Well, no, Canada does have the resources.
00:18:13.420We've just made decisions not to spend.
00:18:15.720Now, you say, okay, well, that's fair.
00:18:17.020But we're now in a new environment since 2014 and 2022 is when, of course, you know, Deputy Prime Minister Freeman said the role changed in February 2022 when the Russians upped their invasion.
00:18:30.580It means to me she wasn't paying attention to what the Russians were doing before.
00:18:33.500And that's hard to believe because she is an outstanding Russian expert.
00:18:38.300But, I mean, you know, is she speaking as the expert or as the politician?
00:18:42.380Nevertheless, so, okay, things change in 2022.
00:18:45.880And you say, okay, well, maybe we should be focusing on keeping our capabilities at home.
00:18:54.800It's actually developing it because we need the F-35s.
00:18:57.820But we need the F-35s and the refuelers that go with it and the satellite system and the ability to work with our allies because an F-35 is a very different, you know, people think in terms they go to Top Gun movies and say, oh, it's a fighter just like World War II.
00:19:24.080And so the threat of Russia and the threat of China is fungible.
00:19:29.360In other words, yeah, we can say, okay, well, we're going to go home and just look after the Arctic when, in fact, what we're talking about is ultimately the threat is going to be much greater than that.
00:19:40.100So, yeah, we need to be doing stuff in the Arctic.
00:19:41.920But we also need to be learning how to do it overseas, trying to keep the Russians and the Chinese as far away from us as possible.
00:19:49.820And so, you know, once again, we have to learn how to chew gum and walk at the same time because we've got to do both of them if we were really going to be meeting this threat and meeting it in a meaningful way with our friends and allies.
00:20:02.620I want to now talk about China, clearly one of Canada's biggest adversaries.
00:20:08.900I consider them to be an enemy of Canada.
00:20:13.260In 2019, the special representative to the foreign minister in China declared China to be a near Arctic state.
00:20:20.120They clearly have ambitions to dominate the Arctic Ocean as a trading as a trading route in the in the years to come.
00:20:26.800And we also know now that they are building these icebreakers with submersibles, manned and unmanned submersibles, able to go to the Arctic sea floor.
00:20:35.080I'm no expert in in trade, but I'm just assuming that these submersibles aren't going to be used to transport goods, probably something else.
00:20:43.160Explain what China is trying to do in the Arctic and how this is going to impact the future of Canada.
00:20:47.180Yeah, the the Chinese in the Arctic, that's a complicated topic because, of course, what the Chinese are pursuing, they have five major objectives within within the Arctic.
00:20:57.960The first one is, of course, is they want to be they want to be functioning in the overall governance system.
00:21:04.000And so that they want to be a player in the Arctic Council.
00:21:06.560They want to be involved in any treaty that might have an impact on them, such as the High Sea Arctic Fishing Treaty, which they are, in fact, party to.
00:21:13.980They want to ensure that their voice is heard, which is quite interesting, given the fact that they don't want anyone else's voice being heard in the South China Sea.
00:21:22.220But, you know, these are the paradoxes that many people have already noticed.
00:21:27.860And there's no question whatsoever that they see the Arctic as a potential shipping route.
00:21:31.740Now, the focus for the Chinese, if truth is told, it's really on the northern sea route.
00:21:36.540So they're looking more so not so much on the North American side, but how do they get their their goods and services to Russia and get oil back?
00:21:45.020Because that's a major that's the major trading point for when we brought the sanctions against the Russians, when they initiated the war against Ukraine in 2014.
00:21:54.300Because remember, that's when the sanctions regime does begin.
00:21:57.540So they want to take advantage of that.
00:21:59.720But to get the oil, this pipeline, shipping, other things, and then they have to ship over to that location.
00:22:05.280And it's also part of their efforts to become an international maritime trading nation.
00:22:09.740They know that that is the way that you become the hegemon.
00:22:12.460They saw the British do it and they saw the Americans do it.
00:22:15.080And they're trying to copy that in terms of their overall position within the international system.
00:23:43.500Their nuclear deterrent is based on Arctic capabilities.
00:23:46.980They need to be able to fire their missiles over the Arctic into Russia to deter the Russians from firing in the first place.
00:23:53.660Remember, it's that paradox of nuclear deterrence.
00:23:55.840You want to convince your enemy that you will die with them.
00:23:59.140But it's only that knowledge that prevents them from being utilized.
00:24:02.180For the Americans, the Arctic region is of critical strategic importance.
00:24:07.440For the Russians, for everything I've just said, the Arctic is of strategic critical importance.
00:24:12.780For China, China doesn't have to be there.
00:24:15.640But, man, if it's trying to play the long game, if it's trying to make sure that the United States and both Russia know that they have to dedicate scarce resources just because the Chinese have demonstrated they could be there.
00:24:29.100They're definitely there with their two icebreakers, and you make reference to the third icebreaker that they are about to start construction that is going to have these deep diving submersibles.
00:24:38.940And the deep diving submersibles are for basically what we suspect will be utilized for in a strategic environment.
00:24:46.480You can use them to cut cables, you can use them to basically start listing into cables, and you can use them to utilize, to deploy SOSAs, or underwater listing capabilities, which we know the Chinese have.
00:25:00.640They publicly come forward and say, yes, we have these portable underwater listing devices.
00:25:06.120We're only using it for science, by the way, but we know that they're using them for submarines.
00:25:09.960And so for the Chinese, it's to keep the Americans off guard.
00:25:15.160It's to let the Russians know that they can't take the Chinese for granted.
00:25:20.280I don't think they're going to have an overall presence in the Arctic, but they're going to be in the type of situation that their submarines could be in the Arctic, could be utilized to go into the Arctic to launch hypersonic cruise missiles.
00:25:35.100That's another targeting issue then that the Americans have to spread out their resources to meet.
00:25:42.800It's not a critical focus, but again, it disrupts the ability of the Americans and the Russians in the long term to do good strategic planning.
00:25:52.420And it forces both the Americans and the Russians, therefore, to be always looking over their shoulder.
00:25:57.980And again, strategically, a very brilliant move.
00:26:01.060But one, you know, once again, we have to be careful about going into hyperbole.
00:26:05.180But in the new environment, that is critically important to understand.
00:26:09.140So I want to just bring the conversation back to Canadian territory, Canadian sovereignty, and to talk a little, talk more about the Northwest Passage.
00:26:19.500In 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Canada's claim to the Northwest Passage is illegitimate.
00:26:27.940And in 2022, Trudeau reaffirmed Canada's position on the Northwest Passages as internal waters.
00:26:33.640Now, you'll have to forgive my ignorance, but when I look at a map, I see Canadian territory on either side of the Northwest Passage and assume that that means it's internal waters.
00:26:43.800How can anyone claim that this is some sort of international strait?
00:27:00.800The Soviets, because they use similar international legal arguments as what we do in terms of trying to say that these are internal waters.
00:27:09.860What Canada says is that we, because of historical realities and because no one has used these for shipping routes without Canadian permission, except for two times, and we'll come back to that in a moment,
00:27:22.000means that we can then have always sort of de facto had our limits around the outer limits of the land.
00:27:30.020So if you look at the archipelago, you can see it's sort of like, okay, it's an archipelago and you draw the lines around it.
00:27:36.020Technically, they're called straight baselines in international legal terms.
00:27:39.860The argumentation that Canada has always had, because historically no one has countered us on that, is that ultimately that means these are internal waters.
00:27:57.580The Americans, and we can add the European Union, the British, Poland, Italy, France, Japan.
00:28:06.340And I know I'm leaving out a few others have come forward and said, sorry, we, in different ways, they've used different, you know, it's international terminology and niceties.
00:28:15.360But they've all said in no uncertain terms, we're not, we're not accepting that.
00:28:20.680The Americans are the loudest and the Americans, and this is the irony, the Americans would prefer us to have control over the Arctic.
00:28:26.980Because if it's an international strait, it means all shipping can go through without permission.
00:28:33.260And furthermore, if you are a submarine, you can do so submerged.
00:28:36.980So they don't want the Soviet slash Russian.
00:28:39.440They don't want the Chinese submarines coming forward.
00:28:41.940So the Americans have always understood the game, which is they got to say, they got to say in loud terms, yes, this is an international strait.
00:28:51.080But in very quiet terms, Canada, how do we, how do we manage this?
00:28:54.660And we actually have had an agreement since 1988 to allow us to do that.
00:29:25.740We're not entirely searching for submarines.
00:29:28.360And I mean, so we get to work with the Americans.
00:29:31.100We basically, you know, the Americans don't push the issue.
00:29:34.640Now, this changed with the Trump administration as so many things did.
00:29:38.720The Trump administration, which of course, you know, many people question their ability to understand anything in terms of the senior leadership.
00:29:46.400And so all of a sudden we see, we see, we see the Secretary of State.
00:29:52.040We also see the Secretary of Navy spent saying, no, the international, you know, the Northwest Passage is an international strait.
00:29:58.380And we're going to fight for the right to show it.
00:30:00.380And you're just going, so you really want Russian and Chinese submarines to have the right of passage and their bombers to have the right of overflight?
00:30:08.480Because that's, that's what you're saying.
00:30:10.540And so we've run into the situation that many of us think that the senior American leadership doesn't understand that, doesn't understand why it's in their own security interest not to do that.
00:30:22.880But we're seeing clear indications that particularly if it's a Trump administration, they're going to push it again, that they're going to try to demonstrate that it's an international strait.
00:30:32.400And their argumentation will be under international law, an international strait joins two international bodies of water.
00:30:39.880It doesn't matter if there's ice or not ice.
00:30:41.720We've always said ice is important, makes a difference, but there isn't really that much international standing on it.
00:30:48.520And it has to be used from a functional perspective.
00:30:51.340And the Americans will say the two voyages in 1969, in 1985, when they went through the Northwest Passage without asking permission, demonstrates is enough.
00:31:01.040You know, it's how many angels sit on the side of a pin.
00:31:07.380But the terrifying part is if a Trump administration doesn't understand the security ramifications, as we saw Secretary of the Navy Spence, as we saw the Secretary of State, I'm blanking on his name right now.
00:31:28.580Anyway, but it gets into that illogicalness of the Trump administration and the lack of understanding.
00:31:34.820And so the big fear is that if Trump is reelected, he's going to turn around and say to the Coast Guard, you are going to go through there in the hell with the 1988 agreement.
00:31:43.420And at that point, of course, okay, fine, Trump gets to make his point, but then the Chinese and the Russians get to go through.
00:31:50.180And so there is a real sovereignty issue that will be coming forward, probably if we do see a Trump victory in the coming American election.
00:32:00.000Wow. Well, the question I now have for you is going back to some of the soft threats, I think you called them, in the Arctic, having to do with...
00:32:09.860Soft security. I mean, they're real threats. I don't want to make it sound like it's a soft, not threat.
00:32:14.620No, no, no. Right. But I want to talk about the government's reconciliation policies and how that helps or hurts Canada's ability to claim our Arctic sovereignty.
00:32:28.180So the federal government puts reconciliation at the top of a lot of its domestic policies, especially in the north.
00:32:34.900Is this something that you think actually bolsters Canada's sovereignty claims over the Arctic and helps us, or does it take away? Does it hinder that?
00:32:42.740It doesn't hinder, it doesn't hurt. It's a completely necessary requirement for the nation.
00:32:49.380I mean, you know, the fact that we have the type of mental health crises and the other crises that we have in the north.
00:32:57.200The government absolutely needs to be doing the reconciliation because, I mean, the statistics there are horrifying, to be honest.
00:33:04.360And so that is a point that the government needs to be applauded on because they have made that central and they have made the efforts to improve on that side.
00:33:13.160But it has to be noted that in terms of sovereignty, the sovereignty is about the international shipping.
00:33:18.880And so the fact, you know, unless we had an indigenous group that was somehow international, well, even domestically, you could just say.
00:33:27.020I mean, the bottom line is, is the government often confounds what the term sovereignty is all about.
00:33:32.880They'll say, OK, by by putting more hospital capabilities in Yellowknife, we're protecting Canadian sovereignty.
00:33:40.300No, you're protecting Canadian security, health security.
00:33:44.220You're you're you're you're equaling your mandate of doing what you need to be doing.
00:33:47.960But you're not protecting Arctic sovereignty.
00:33:50.880You're not doing anything that is going to be showing that you are exercising complete control over the Northwest Passage, unless, of course, you can put a hospital in the middle of the waterway, which, of course, you're not going to do.
00:34:03.660But I mean, these things are very important steps.
00:34:07.020And the government always tries to double hat by saying, OK, that shows we're doing meaningful sovereignty stuff.
00:34:12.820But really what they're doing is they're sidestepping it.
00:34:15.080They're saying, OK, see what we're doing.
00:34:16.900We're doing all this important stuff and we're meeting sovereignty.
00:34:21.060You're meeting the basic needs of the population and particularly the basic needs that you've allowed to to deteriorate so badly of the northern indigenous peoples.
00:34:30.060And you need to, of course, be addressing that.
00:34:32.300But that doesn't give you a buy because you can't turn around and say that that is somehow adding to our sovereignty unless you can convince the international community that somehow that asserts Canadian control over it.
00:34:49.140Last question I have for you, Professor, is looking forward.
00:34:53.280Do you have any expectation as an expert in this area that a change in federal government leadership will bring about a serious change in Canada's Arctic posture and our Arctic defense capabilities?
00:35:05.000The change of government that will cause that will be the Trump administration.
00:35:08.800Once again, we know that historically speaking, be it conservative governments such as the Moroni government, be it liberal governments such as the Pierre Trudeau administration, where they respond the most meaningfully is when the Americans do something.
00:35:26.760And so in the 1950s, the Americans were going to go ahead with or without us to respond to the Soviet threat.
00:35:33.980And so, therefore, we participated very fully in the placement of the dew line and basically putting military capabilities in the Arctic region.
00:35:44.440In 1969, when the American icebreaker Manhattan went through the Northwest Passage that forced Trudeau, Jr., to develop a series of environmentally international progressive looking laws that gave us a functional control to a limited degree.
00:36:01.720Not complete, you know, and that's where the problem always relies.
00:36:04.860And, of course, the Moroni conservative government, it's when the American icebreaker polar sea goes through that we see one of the most meaningful Arctic policies developed.
00:36:14.700You know, the Joe Clark announcement in September 10th in Parliament of what constitutes Canada's Arctic policy.
00:36:20.800So change of government doesn't matter for a Canadian.
00:36:24.160In other words, we see a commonality of behavior from liberal and conservative governments throughout time of where they put their money.
00:36:32.880They inevitably are responding to American action.
00:36:36.840And so given the fact that we've already had a bit of a hint of what we can expect in the first administration of the Trump, the biggest changer would be, of course, in regards to a Trump administration.
00:36:46.720It would come in at least two impacts.
00:36:50.980As I said, Trump seems to be determined for, you know, it's just like when he said, I'm going to buy Greenland, which was, of course, a nonsicle northern policy.
00:36:58.680I think he probably misread a briefing that he got or misheard, you know, when they're saying we have to do more with Greenland because we have a major base up at Thule.
00:37:10.000But anyway, we have a major important strategic base in that location.
00:37:14.900And so I think he misheard and said, well, let's just buy the damn place, you know, given, you know, and there are there are reasons to believe that's exactly how it is built out.
00:37:25.600The second thing, of course, is if he's serious about pulling out of NATO, if the moment he does that, that is going to embolden a much more aggressive Russia.
00:37:35.020And it will probably also send a very dangerous sign to the Chinese, in which case you can see the Americans probably trying to pull back to an isolationist Pax North America, which means, of course, protecting the borders even more so.
00:37:49.540Because if all of a sudden the Russians think that they have a free hand in Europe, you know, in terms of where that's going to take in terms of a war within Europe.
00:37:58.460In that context, we can expect to see much more violence occurring.
00:38:02.520And so therefore, there'll be a pressure to say, OK, we have to make sure.
00:38:06.300Remember, he's already promising what yesterday we're going to have the best Iron Dome in the United States.
00:38:13.000Well, if you're going to have an Iron Dome, you've got to protect all of North America.
00:38:16.500And so there will be tremendous pressure on Canada to make a much more meaningful contribution to NORAD in a much more dangerous international environment.
00:38:25.580And so those are the two forces I see, the sovereignty and the security side that are going to bring tremendous pressure on to Canada if we see Trump elected.
00:38:37.320Fascinating. Professor, thank you so much for joining us.
00:38:40.560It's always my pleasure, Harrison. I look forward to next time.