Juno News - Arctic Sovereignty： Canada's greatest challenge？

00:00:00.000 No one denies Russia has significant Arctic interests.

00:00:13.620 The U.S. has a long contested view of Canada over soccer claims on the Northwest Passage.

00:00:18.920 The Northwest Passage is Canadian waters, period.

00:00:30.000 You likely don't think much about Canada's Arctic, but the truth is, you should.

00:00:40.860 For the first time in human history, an ocean which has been largely unusable is now revealing itself to the world.

00:00:47.960 The opening of the Arctic will have profound consequences on the future of our country.

00:00:53.100 For one, Canada will find itself at the center of new and critical trade routes.

00:00:58.300 These trade routes have the power to reshape global trade as we know it.

00:01:02.200 And two, more importantly, as Canada's enemies militarize their Arctic presence, Canada's own backyard may be turned into an arena of war.

00:01:10.980 We can either rise to this monumental occasion or maintain our current path of inaction and seeming indifference to the civilization-changing shift and pay the consequences.

00:01:21.520 Well, to figure out what is really going on, we're now joined by one of Canada's leading Arctic defense experts.

00:01:26.520 He's a professor at the University of Calgary and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Professor Robert Huber.

00:01:33.380 Professor, thank you so much for coming on.

00:01:35.180 Oh, it's my pleasure, Harrison.

00:01:36.900 So I first want to have you outline the vulnerability of Canada in the Arctic right now.

00:01:42.700 We've heard reports that Canada's Arctic icebreaker fleet are unable to patrol the high north in the winter and that our satellites are unable to get a full picture on who's entering our Arctic territory.

00:01:53.260 And this is to say nothing at all over the fact that it appears no one is actually signing up for the military to help defend this country.

00:02:00.460 Now, in my opinion, that's a bad mixture.

00:02:02.680 But what is the situation right now?

00:02:04.720 How bad is it in the Arctic for Canada?

00:02:07.240 Well, it's bad and it's getting worse.

00:02:09.400 I mean, you're making reference to the Auditor General's report that just laid bare about despite government propaganda,

00:02:15.660 and it is propaganda because they keep saying everything is well in hand.

00:02:19.260 In fact, things are not well in hand in terms of our surveillance capability.

00:02:22.980 We saw quite clearly with the many haps and balloons and other Chinese efforts to basically set up surveillance systems in and around the Canadian Arctic that we are not prepared for, 0.98

00:02:37.700 even though experts have been warning of this problem coming.

00:02:40.200 And so we've had a security threat in the Arctic since the beginning of the Cold War, and people tend to forget this.

00:02:47.780 But the reality is that the whole nuclear deterrent, the whole effort to hold the Soviet Union from being able to take aggressive action in Europe or even go to nuclear war depended on us actually pulling our weight in the Arctic.

00:03:03.340 And in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, one could argue that we did.

00:03:08.340 And then when we started getting into the 1980s, we basically said the Cold War was over, we'll never have to worry about security in the Arctic, and we basically stopped doing anything.

00:03:17.780 We upgraded the North Warning system, which was the dew line, which was central for any type of surveillance system.

00:03:24.800 The last time that we gave it a meaningful upgrade was in 1985.

00:03:28.180 We converted it from the dew line, we gave new technologies, and that was it.

00:03:32.340 You make mention of the icebreaker.

00:03:34.260 The last time that we built a large icebreaker was in 1969, and that's how long that the Louis-Saint-Laurent has been in service.

00:03:43.380 Now, the one bright side in all of this is that we are in the process of having six offshore Arctic patrol vessels that have some capability of going into ice.

00:03:54.180 In fact, they're performing better than what people were expecting them to do.

00:03:57.080 So that is something forward.

00:03:59.640 But we have absolutely no capability in terms of underwater detection.

00:04:03.720 And this, of course, is as we're seeing in the war in Ukraine, as we're seeing in terms of reports of Chinese capabilities.

00:04:10.820 Not having any capability of having any surveillance for an underwater threat is, of course, ludicrous, given the fact that we see clear and present dangers in this particular context.

00:04:23.720 Now, the other aspect that falls into this is this is all ties to traditional security.

00:04:29.200 This is, of course, trying to stay aware of what our enemies in the north, and let's be blunt, it is the Russians and the Chinese that we have to be the most focused on in this regard. 0.98

00:04:39.900 But at the same time, we are also doing a lot of lip service when it comes to the environmental security issues that are coming forward.

00:04:46.640 And we're, you know, we pat ourselves on the back on trying to be, you know, do things green.

00:04:51.620 But there are very large suggestions that unless you can get the Chinese and the Russians on board, and, of course, you've got that geopolitical threat going on, that they're not going to listen on this.

00:05:02.240 It's that we have even further problems coming forward with how we try to figure out how to respond in that context.

00:05:09.740 One of the things that we're seeing with climate change, and it is a very clear and present danger, is, of course, we're seeing all sorts of new requirements of what I guess you could call human security.

00:05:20.320 It's the forest fires.

00:05:21.260 It's a constabulary.

00:05:22.120 It's not the nuclear missiles that, of course, that are designed to fly over the Arctic region that, by the way, are being expanded by everybody, Americans, Chinese, Russians, and is making a very changed nuclear environment for Canada.

00:05:37.820 And, again, we're not paying attention to that either.

00:05:40.280 But also on the ability to respond to flooding, to the fires, to the effects that climate change, of course, is having on the local communities.

00:05:49.680 And, again, we get back to your original point about the incapabilities and the fact that our forces have been allowed to run down to numbers that are very difficult to respond.

00:06:01.540 So, in a nutshell, if you want to talk about security threats to Canada, you can go from the human security issues.

00:06:06.680 And, of course, we also have to remember, in terms of the fact that we have some of the largest social problems in the north in terms of education, health, and all types of human security crises that we are talking about, high suicide rates.

00:06:22.420 So, we have the human security dilemma that doesn't seem to be solvable in terms of the fact that the numbers get worse rather than better.

00:06:29.460 We have the climate change, and we're seeing clearly with the forest fires and the flooding how real this is and how much it's impacting.

00:06:36.940 And we have a geopolitical environment where we see the Americans in the process of completely rebuilding their nuclear forces.

00:06:45.200 We see the Russians talking about the use of nuclear weapons in a war environment.

00:06:49.400 And we have to remind ourselves that the vast majority of Russian capabilities are in the north.

00:06:55.340 And we have China that had sat for the longest time at 300 nuclear weapons.

00:06:59.900 They are now up to 500 nuclear weapons.

00:07:02.160 They are going probably to catch the Americans by the end of the decade. 0.99

00:07:06.320 And they are developing delivery systems that clearly will have a capability to at least be near or even in the Arctic, not to attack the Arctic.

00:07:15.860 Let's be very clear.

00:07:16.680 It's not about that.

00:07:17.380 It is about launching from where they think that they can then, of course, try to bring pressure on the Americans in the event, say, a war in Taiwan, South Korea, or any of the locations that people are talking about in this context.

00:07:31.180 And so, you want to talk about insecurity threats in the Arctic?

00:07:34.200 Every single type that you can name is in the Arctic as we speak.

00:07:37.860 I want to play a clip for the audience of Chief of the Defence Staff General Wayne Ayer talking about his concern about Canada's military readiness to deploy and operate in the Arctic, saying he's very concerned about that.

00:07:51.860 The first part really speaks to readiness, which has gotten me very concerned.

00:07:58.200 And readiness has four components.

00:08:01.380 The people, the equipment, the training, and the sustainment.

00:08:05.840 And we need to focus on all four of those to be able to conduct operations in the Arctic.

00:08:13.080 We've got to have the right people.

00:08:14.820 And so, yeah, you've heard lots of commentary about the people situation in the Canadian Armed Forces.

00:08:21.340 This is something that I am extremely concerned about.

00:08:23.360 And as well, we've recently seen a video from the Vice Admiral of the Canadian Navy talking about how, even though there are two of the yet-to-be six Icebreaker Patrol, Harry DeWolf-class ships, the military, the Navy, can't operate both at the same time.

00:08:41.220 And yet we're expected to have four more.

00:08:42.940 However, how has the government allowed this to happen, where clearly the threat to the Arctic is there, it's one of the clearest threats to Canada, yet we can't even seem to operate what we have in the first place?

00:08:56.680 Well, part of the problem, I mean, of course, the politicians are the ones that are failing to act.

00:09:02.800 And this government has been at the lead of that particular parade.

00:09:07.820 But part of the problem that we face is that the attention of Canadians is elsewhere.

00:09:11.880 We are, we say we're an Arctic nation, we have the north in our national anthem, but the reality is we look southward.

00:09:21.040 We have other issues that we are always more, we're more concerned about economics, in terms of housing, in terms of jobs.

00:09:30.040 We were obviously more concerned when the pandemic hit.

00:09:33.460 And so there isn't a sense within the Canadian public that this is something that we need to be spending the resources that are required.

00:09:42.460 And in fact, we've been brought up in this field, this mythology that, well, don't worry, the Americans ultimately will take care of any true security problem that we face.

00:09:54.360 And as a result, even though the government, to its credit, when it launched its defense policy back in 2017, strong, secure, and engaged, they actually noted that we needed to, of course, respond to Arctic capabilities.

00:10:07.000 They talked about NORAD modernization.

00:10:09.740 They talked about the need to work with the NATO allies, something that we haven't done before in the past.

00:10:15.200 So there was the recognition and there was the talk that we had to do it.

00:10:19.100 But that was 2017.

00:10:20.180 Here we are in 2024, and we have, of course, the head of the Canadian Navy, the head of the Canadian forces overall, saying, hey, nothing has really been done despite their best efforts.

00:10:31.100 I can assure you that our military leadership has been trying very hard, at least in the last six or seven years, to try to remedy many of these problems.

00:10:41.800 And this is a change even amongst the military.

00:10:43.640 I mean, the military itself used to joke that if the Russians ever were to invade us, their biggest concern would be, how would they rescue the Russians?

00:10:51.340 Ha, ha, ha.

00:10:52.740 First of all, they weren't going to be doing it on a land invasion, but, you know, it was a bit of a red herring that was deliberately put forward to basically say to Canadians, hey, don't worry.

00:11:02.780 There's not a threat here.

00:11:03.940 And so, you know, previous heads of the chief defense staff, and it was the chief of defense staff that made those awful jokes and assessments, are also part of the problem in that they downplayed in the past, even though there were many people saying that, no, this threat is developing.

00:11:20.220 I mean, this threat really starts developing as soon as we see Putin coming to power in 2000.

00:11:28.000 And we can see that in the weapon capabilities that he develops, the fact that he uses military force and so forth.

00:11:33.920 So, in other words, it shouldn't be a big surprise.

00:11:36.760 But because we have downplayed it, the narrative has always been that the softer security issues are the real threat.

00:11:44.680 They are a threat.

00:11:45.700 I don't want to undermine, you know, in terms of what is happening to the communities.

00:11:49.460 I don't want to undermine in terms of what is happening in terms of environmental securities.

00:11:53.940 These are existential threats to the security of northern Canadians and to Canadians.

00:11:59.160 But it seems as if we can't chew gum and walk at the same time.

00:12:02.840 And so, like, we've had this narrative for a very long time of what is often referred to as Arctic exceptionalism.

00:12:08.760 The idea that, no, the Arctic is not a threat.

00:12:11.280 We don't have to worry about it.

00:12:12.560 Therefore, we don't have to do anything about it.

00:12:14.660 And so, as a result, Canadians have been told, hey, you know, security and Arctic sovereignty are well in hand.

00:12:20.860 We don't really have to do anything.

00:12:22.720 And that has allowed governments, both conservative and liberal governments, though the conservatives need credit for getting the Arctic offshore patrol vessels.

00:12:30.840 And just a minor little credit.

00:12:32.520 They're not icebreakers.

00:12:32.880 They do not have icebreaking capability, though they go through ice fairly well.

00:12:38.100 In other words, you know, it's one of those gray areas just to be a little bit technically nerdy on it.

00:12:44.900 But nevertheless, outside of that, we really don't have anything.

00:12:48.800 We are so far behind on having any type of submarine capabilities.

00:12:53.020 We're still trying to even have the conversation about that.

00:12:57.340 The F-35s only reluctantly were brought in by this government to replace the F-18s.

00:13:03.800 And remember, we got the F-18s in 1981.

00:13:06.960 I dare say I don't think that you were even born in 1981.

00:13:09.800 So it just gives you a bit of an idea of just how old these aircraft are.

00:13:13.720 And so the fact that we have both a government and, you know, if I'm being honest, a military and I'd say amongst many of my colleagues saying, hey, there's no threat, Canadians.

00:13:24.620 We need to focus on the social issues.

00:13:28.120 And again, they're right on that.

00:13:29.880 We do need to focus on that.

00:13:31.340 We need to address the fact that suicide rates amongst the northern indigenous young people is so high within this region.

00:13:37.920 And the awful drug and other problems that we see within the north.

00:13:44.460 We know that there's economic crises, that the way of living and education is problematic.

00:13:49.440 Once again, not denying it.

00:13:51.460 But we have this inability to say, yes, we have to deal with the human security issues that are there.

00:13:56.380 But we also have to be able to deal with this growing threat that we can identify.

00:14:01.000 I mean, Putin makes it clear that he's going to use force as soon as he comes into power.

00:14:04.680 As soon as he comes into power, what does he do?

00:14:06.520 He uses military force to put down the Chetanian Revolution. 0.65

00:14:10.720 And then in 2008, when Georgia starts talking about joining NATO, he basically shows again, no, you can't join NATO and I will use military force against you.

00:14:19.640 And that eight-year war or eight-day war that they, you know, there were real problems with the Russian military, but they ultimately persevered.

00:14:27.160 And remember the Ukrainian war, this will start in 2022.

00:14:30.060 We have this mythology in Canada.

00:14:31.560 For some reason, well, not for some reason, it fits within the narrative that don't worry, be happy.

00:14:37.720 There's not a real threat out there.

00:14:39.160 But remember, the war doesn't start in 2022.

00:14:41.440 It starts in 2014 when Russia invades, uses military force, kills Ukrainians, and seizes Crimea.

00:14:48.860 And then also seizes part of the eastern Ukraine, where it's been an ongoing simmering war from that point in time.

00:14:56.580 2022 is where they really escalated.

00:14:59.120 So again, we have this mythology in Canada.

00:15:02.220 First of all, the international threat was, the international environment was not dangerous.

00:15:06.460 And second of all, even if it was dangerous, the Americans will take care of it.

00:15:10.480 And as a result, we've been willing to let the Canadian forces basically get to the point where we have the general heirs and general, not general, the admiral in charge of the Navy saying, we can't do things now because they've been allowed to be so problematic.

00:15:30.200 So it's politicians, full stop, and this government in particular.

00:15:34.940 But then again, it's the narrative that we within the, you know, have been feeding Canadians.

00:15:41.320 No, there's not a threat, so don't worry about it.

00:15:43.340 And I think that that was just wrong.

00:15:45.780 If there were really are, you know, limited resources, financial resources for this country to put to use in the Arctic,

00:15:52.560 then wouldn't it make sense that Canada would scale back what we're sending overseas, whether it be not just to Ukraine, but in foreign aid as well, to actually defending our own territory against Russia?

00:16:05.680 See, to me, that's what I'm not really understanding from what we hear from the government, that there are limited resources.

00:16:13.100 We're not available to, we're not able to defund our Arctic defense when we have these other requirements.

00:16:19.160 But if Russia is the main aggressor here, and we technically share an ocean border with Russia, shouldn't that money that we send away go to Canada's defense in the Arctic?

00:16:30.660 Well, Harrison, there's two answers to your very, very skewed question here.

00:16:34.920 The first one is the reality is that Russia, that is the major threat, as you point out, they have the nuclear capabilities. 0.94

00:16:42.780 They are the ones that are being aggressive on all fronts.

00:16:46.600 They've had a GDP roughly the same size as Canada throughout this entire period.

00:16:50.860 Now, it varies some years, but if we're talking about from the year 2000 to 2024, this period that we see Russia redeveloping as a clear security threat to the West, their GDP, you know? 0.72

00:17:03.200 So it's not a question that we can't do it.

00:17:05.880 It's a question that we've made certain political decisions.

00:17:08.600 Now, obviously, our social system, where the government has put its priorities for spending is very different from what the Russian government is.

00:17:19.440 And I would, you know, truth be told, I'd rather be living in Canada than Russia any day. 0.91

00:17:25.200 And that's a reflection of the fact that I think that we've got an amazing society and that the decisions on a whole are correct.

00:17:33.200 But Russia, with a GDP roughly the size of Canada, has had a defense budget of $60 billion per year.

00:17:42.500 They're usually third or fourth.

00:17:43.940 The U.S. is first always with about $600 to $700 billion.

00:17:48.320 The Chinese are catching the Americans. 1.00

00:17:50.380 They're up to about $400 billion, though it's hard always to get a really good number because of the authoritative nature of the regime.

00:17:57.480 And then for fourth place, it's always been Saudi Arabia or Russia.

00:18:03.020 Those are the two that, you know, on any given year.

00:18:05.980 That is a political decision.

00:18:07.620 And so you say, okay, well, should Canada, you know, Canada does have the resources.

00:18:11.360 Well, no, Canada does have the resources.

00:18:13.420 We've just made decisions not to spend.

00:18:15.720 Now, you say, okay, well, that's fair.

00:18:17.020 But we're now in a new environment since 2014 and 2022 is when, of course, you know, Deputy Prime Minister Freeman said the role changed in February 2022 when the Russians upped their invasion.

00:18:30.580 It means to me she wasn't paying attention to what the Russians were doing before.

00:18:33.500 And that's hard to believe because she is an outstanding Russian expert.

00:18:38.300 But, I mean, you know, is she speaking as the expert or as the politician?

00:18:42.380 Nevertheless, so, okay, things change in 2022.

00:18:45.880 And you say, okay, well, maybe we should be focusing on keeping our capabilities at home.

00:18:50.660 Yeah, we should be doing that.

00:18:51.740 We should be developing that capability.

00:18:53.540 It's not keeping them at home.

00:18:54.800 It's actually developing it because we need the F-35s.

00:18:57.820 But we need the F-35s and the refuelers that go with it and the satellite system and the ability to work with our allies because an F-35 is a very different, you know, people think in terms they go to Top Gun movies and say, oh, it's a fighter just like World War II.

00:19:14.960 No, it's not.

00:19:15.560 I mean, those are mythologies.

00:19:17.220 These are systems of systems.

00:19:19.560 But to learn how to do that, you've got to be with your friends and allies.

00:19:22.880 And guess what?

00:19:23.280 That's over in Europe.

00:19:24.080 And so the threat of Russia and the threat of China is fungible.

00:19:29.360 In other words, yeah, we can say, okay, well, we're going to go home and just look after the Arctic when, in fact, what we're talking about is ultimately the threat is going to be much greater than that.

00:19:40.100 So, yeah, we need to be doing stuff in the Arctic.

00:19:41.920 But we also need to be learning how to do it overseas, trying to keep the Russians and the Chinese as far away from us as possible. 1.00

00:19:49.820 And so, you know, once again, we have to learn how to chew gum and walk at the same time because we've got to do both of them if we were really going to be meeting this threat and meeting it in a meaningful way with our friends and allies.

00:20:02.620 I want to now talk about China, clearly one of Canada's biggest adversaries.

00:20:08.900 I consider them to be an enemy of Canada.

00:20:11.620 And I think many would agree.

00:20:13.260 In 2019, the special representative to the foreign minister in China declared China to be a near Arctic state.

00:20:20.120 They clearly have ambitions to dominate the Arctic Ocean as a trading as a trading route in the in the years to come.

00:20:26.800 And we also know now that they are building these icebreakers with submersibles, manned and unmanned submersibles, able to go to the Arctic sea floor.

00:20:35.080 I'm no expert in in trade, but I'm just assuming that these submersibles aren't going to be used to transport goods, probably something else.

00:20:43.160 Explain what China is trying to do in the Arctic and how this is going to impact the future of Canada.

00:20:47.180 Yeah, the the Chinese in the Arctic, that's a complicated topic because, of course, what the Chinese are pursuing, they have five major objectives within within the Arctic.

00:20:57.960 The first one is, of course, is they want to be they want to be functioning in the overall governance system.

00:21:04.000 And so that they want to be a player in the Arctic Council.

00:21:06.560 They want to be involved in any treaty that might have an impact on them, such as the High Sea Arctic Fishing Treaty, which they are, in fact, party to.

00:21:13.980 They want to ensure that their voice is heard, which is quite interesting, given the fact that they don't want anyone else's voice being heard in the South China Sea.

00:21:22.220 But, you know, these are the paradoxes that many people have already noticed.

00:21:26.160 They want the economics.

00:21:27.860 And there's no question whatsoever that they see the Arctic as a potential shipping route.

00:21:31.740 Now, the focus for the Chinese, if truth is told, it's really on the northern sea route.

00:21:36.540 So they're looking more so not so much on the North American side, but how do they get their their goods and services to Russia and get oil back?

00:21:45.020 Because that's a major that's the major trading point for when we brought the sanctions against the Russians, when they initiated the war against Ukraine in 2014.

00:21:54.300 Because remember, that's when the sanctions regime does begin.

00:21:57.540 So they want to take advantage of that.

00:21:59.720 But to get the oil, this pipeline, shipping, other things, and then they have to ship over to that location.

00:22:05.280 And it's also part of their efforts to become an international maritime trading nation.

00:22:09.740 They know that that is the way that you become the hegemon.

00:22:12.460 They saw the British do it and they saw the Americans do it.

00:22:15.080 And they're trying to copy that in terms of their overall position within the international system.

00:22:21.140 The Arctic becomes a part of it.

00:22:22.700 See the word part of it.

00:22:24.440 Now, so we've got governance.

00:22:26.200 We have we have economics.

00:22:28.780 We have science.

00:22:30.860 They understand that climate change is affecting them in severe ways.

00:22:35.380 Coastal coastal rising of sea level rises.

00:22:38.260 The the desert in the central China region.

00:22:41.380 In other words, they have very real scientific requirements to understand that.

00:22:45.620 And you need to be in the Arctic to be able to do that.

00:22:48.460 And so that that's another avenue of of action.

00:22:53.120 They also want to be cooperating.

00:22:55.000 In other words, remember, you're going to be a hegemon. 0.89

00:22:57.020 If you want to be the leader, you want to have other people listening.

00:22:59.620 And so that is sort of related to governance.

00:23:02.200 But it goes beyond just simply being part of it.

00:23:05.020 The part that, of course, that you're alluding to is they also see the Arctic as a strategic environment.

00:23:10.700 Now, do they want to dominate? 0.98

00:23:12.820 I don't think that anywhere that we can see any clear evidence that they're trying to have the capability of dominating.

00:23:19.760 But they want to be disruptors.

00:23:21.260 They want to have a capability.

00:23:22.740 They're going to be moving into Taiwan or supporting the North Koreans into South Korea. 0.87

00:23:27.440 They want to be able to ensure that the Americans have no safe sanctuaries. 0.66

00:23:31.620 Because, I mean, for the Americans, the ability to control the North, the Arctic region is of critical strategic importance.

00:23:38.920 It's important for their submarines.

00:23:40.980 It's important for their satellites.

00:23:43.500 Their nuclear deterrent is based on Arctic capabilities.

00:23:46.980 They need to be able to fire their missiles over the Arctic into Russia to deter the Russians from firing in the first place. 0.90

00:23:53.660 Remember, it's that paradox of nuclear deterrence.

00:23:55.840 You want to convince your enemy that you will die with them.

00:23:59.140 But it's only that knowledge that prevents them from being utilized.

00:24:02.180 For the Americans, the Arctic region is of critical strategic importance.

00:24:07.440 For the Russians, for everything I've just said, the Arctic is of strategic critical importance.

00:24:12.780 For China, China doesn't have to be there.

00:24:15.640 But, man, if it's trying to play the long game, if it's trying to make sure that the United States and both Russia know that they have to dedicate scarce resources just because the Chinese have demonstrated they could be there. 0.95

00:24:29.100 They're definitely there with their two icebreakers, and you make reference to the third icebreaker that they are about to start construction that is going to have these deep diving submersibles.

00:24:38.940 And the deep diving submersibles are for basically what we suspect will be utilized for in a strategic environment.

00:24:46.480 You can use them to cut cables, you can use them to basically start listing into cables, and you can use them to utilize, to deploy SOSAs, or underwater listing capabilities, which we know the Chinese have.

00:25:00.640 They publicly come forward and say, yes, we have these portable underwater listing devices.

00:25:06.120 We're only using it for science, by the way, but we know that they're using them for submarines.

00:25:09.960 And so for the Chinese, it's to keep the Americans off guard. 0.99

00:25:15.160 It's to let the Russians know that they can't take the Chinese for granted.

00:25:20.280 I don't think they're going to have an overall presence in the Arctic, but they're going to be in the type of situation that their submarines could be in the Arctic, could be utilized to go into the Arctic to launch hypersonic cruise missiles.

00:25:35.100 That's another targeting issue then that the Americans have to spread out their resources to meet.

00:25:40.300 And so it's a smart strategic move.

00:25:42.800 It's not a critical focus, but again, it disrupts the ability of the Americans and the Russians in the long term to do good strategic planning.

00:25:52.420 And it forces both the Americans and the Russians, therefore, to be always looking over their shoulder. 0.62

00:25:57.980 And again, strategically, a very brilliant move.

00:26:01.060 But one, you know, once again, we have to be careful about going into hyperbole.

00:26:05.180 But in the new environment, that is critically important to understand.

00:26:09.140 So I want to just bring the conversation back to Canadian territory, Canadian sovereignty, and to talk a little, talk more about the Northwest Passage.

00:26:19.500 In 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Canada's claim to the Northwest Passage is illegitimate.

00:26:27.940 And in 2022, Trudeau reaffirmed Canada's position on the Northwest Passages as internal waters.

00:26:33.640 Now, you'll have to forgive my ignorance, but when I look at a map, I see Canadian territory on either side of the Northwest Passage and assume that that means it's internal waters.

00:26:43.800 How can anyone claim that this is some sort of international strait?

00:26:48.140 Well, here's the kicker.

00:26:49.400 It's not just the Americans.

00:26:51.220 In fact, the only country that really has said that the Canadian claim that these are all internal waters has made something.

00:26:57.300 And it's not a complete fit.

00:26:59.260 We're the Soviets.

00:27:00.800 The Soviets, because they use similar international legal arguments as what we do in terms of trying to say that these are internal waters.

00:27:09.860 What Canada says is that we, because of historical realities and because no one has used these for shipping routes without Canadian permission, except for two times, and we'll come back to that in a moment,

00:27:22.000 means that we can then have always sort of de facto had our limits around the outer limits of the land.

00:27:30.020 So if you look at the archipelago, you can see it's sort of like, okay, it's an archipelago and you draw the lines around it.

00:27:36.020 Technically, they're called straight baselines in international legal terms.

00:27:39.860 The argumentation that Canada has always had, because historically no one has countered us on that, is that ultimately that means these are internal waters.

00:27:48.800 These are like Lake Winnipeg.

00:27:50.440 If you want to come into them, you have to ask Canadian permission. 0.89

00:27:53.660 You have to follow Canadian law.

00:27:55.920 Now, here is the kicker.

00:27:57.580 The Americans, and we can add the European Union, the British, Poland, Italy, France, Japan.

00:28:06.340 And I know I'm leaving out a few others have come forward and said, sorry, we, in different ways, they've used different, you know, it's international terminology and niceties.

00:28:15.360 But they've all said in no uncertain terms, we're not, we're not accepting that.

00:28:20.680 The Americans are the loudest and the Americans, and this is the irony, the Americans would prefer us to have control over the Arctic. 0.74

00:28:26.980 Because if it's an international strait, it means all shipping can go through without permission.

00:28:33.260 And furthermore, if you are a submarine, you can do so submerged.

00:28:36.980 So they don't want the Soviet slash Russian.

00:28:39.440 They don't want the Chinese submarines coming forward.

00:28:41.940 So the Americans have always understood the game, which is they got to say, they got to say in loud terms, yes, this is an international strait.

00:28:51.080 But in very quiet terms, Canada, how do we, how do we manage this?

00:28:54.660 And we actually have had an agreement since 1988 to allow us to do that.

00:28:59.680 And it's been followed.

00:29:00.940 It's not an official treaty, but it's an agreement.

00:29:03.960 The Americans will always ask our consent. 0.99

00:29:06.280 It's not permission.

00:29:07.140 And there's a difference in international law, but nobody ever noticed it unless you're an international expert.

00:29:13.460 So they ask our consent and we give it automatically for their icebreakers.

00:29:17.600 And so every, and, and what's secret is, of course, we have these secret agreements with the Russians under NORAD.

00:29:24.620 Well, we think it's NORAD.

00:29:25.740 We're not entirely searching for submarines.

00:29:28.360 And I mean, so we get to work with the Americans.

00:29:31.100 We basically, you know, the Americans don't push the issue.

00:29:34.640 Now, this changed with the Trump administration as so many things did.

00:29:38.720 The Trump administration, which of course, you know, many people question their ability to understand anything in terms of the senior leadership.

00:29:46.400 And so all of a sudden we see, we see, we see the Secretary of State.

00:29:52.040 We also see the Secretary of Navy spent saying, no, the international, you know, the Northwest Passage is an international strait.

00:29:58.380 And we're going to fight for the right to show it.

00:30:00.380 And you're just going, so you really want Russian and Chinese submarines to have the right of passage and their bombers to have the right of overflight?

00:30:08.480 Because that's, that's what you're saying.

00:30:10.540 And so we've run into the situation that many of us think that the senior American leadership doesn't understand that, doesn't understand why it's in their own security interest not to do that.

00:30:22.880 But we're seeing clear indications that particularly if it's a Trump administration, they're going to push it again, that they're going to try to demonstrate that it's an international strait.

00:30:32.400 And their argumentation will be under international law, an international strait joins two international bodies of water.

00:30:39.880 It doesn't matter if there's ice or not ice.

00:30:41.720 We've always said ice is important, makes a difference, but there isn't really that much international standing on it.

00:30:48.520 And it has to be used from a functional perspective.

00:30:51.340 And the Americans will say the two voyages in 1969, in 1985, when they went through the Northwest Passage without asking permission, demonstrates is enough.

00:31:01.040 You know, it's how many angels sit on the side of a pin.

00:31:05.540 And so the Americans will argue that.

00:31:07.380 But the terrifying part is if a Trump administration doesn't understand the security ramifications, as we saw Secretary of the Navy Spence, as we saw the Secretary of State, I'm blanking on his name right now.

00:31:20.120 Pompeo.

00:31:20.980 Yeah, Pompeo, making these statements, and you're going, you're shooting yourself in the foot.

00:31:25.860 Why are you doing this?

00:31:27.060 You don't have to do this.

00:31:28.580 Anyway, but it gets into that illogicalness of the Trump administration and the lack of understanding.

00:31:34.820 And so the big fear is that if Trump is reelected, he's going to turn around and say to the Coast Guard, you are going to go through there in the hell with the 1988 agreement.

00:31:43.420 And at that point, of course, okay, fine, Trump gets to make his point, but then the Chinese and the Russians get to go through. 0.95

00:31:50.180 And so there is a real sovereignty issue that will be coming forward, probably if we do see a Trump victory in the coming American election.

00:32:00.000 Wow. Well, the question I now have for you is going back to some of the soft threats, I think you called them, in the Arctic, having to do with...

00:32:09.860 Soft security. I mean, they're real threats. I don't want to make it sound like it's a soft, not threat.

00:32:14.620 No, no, no. Right. But I want to talk about the government's reconciliation policies and how that helps or hurts Canada's ability to claim our Arctic sovereignty.

00:32:28.180 So the federal government puts reconciliation at the top of a lot of its domestic policies, especially in the north.

00:32:34.900 Is this something that you think actually bolsters Canada's sovereignty claims over the Arctic and helps us, or does it take away? Does it hinder that?

00:32:42.740 It doesn't hinder, it doesn't hurt. It's a completely necessary requirement for the nation.

00:32:49.380 I mean, you know, the fact that we have the type of mental health crises and the other crises that we have in the north.

00:32:57.200 The government absolutely needs to be doing the reconciliation because, I mean, the statistics there are horrifying, to be honest.

00:33:04.360 And so that is a point that the government needs to be applauded on because they have made that central and they have made the efforts to improve on that side.

00:33:13.160 But it has to be noted that in terms of sovereignty, the sovereignty is about the international shipping.

00:33:18.880 And so the fact, you know, unless we had an indigenous group that was somehow international, well, even domestically, you could just say.

00:33:27.020 I mean, the bottom line is, is the government often confounds what the term sovereignty is all about.

00:33:32.880 They'll say, OK, by by putting more hospital capabilities in Yellowknife, we're protecting Canadian sovereignty.

00:33:40.300 No, you're protecting Canadian security, health security.

00:33:44.220 You're you're you're you're equaling your mandate of doing what you need to be doing.

00:33:47.960 But you're not protecting Arctic sovereignty.

00:33:50.880 You're not doing anything that is going to be showing that you are exercising complete control over the Northwest Passage, unless, of course, you can put a hospital in the middle of the waterway, which, of course, you're not going to do.

00:34:03.660 But I mean, these things are very important steps.

00:34:07.020 And the government always tries to double hat by saying, OK, that shows we're doing meaningful sovereignty stuff.

00:34:12.820 But really what they're doing is they're sidestepping it.

00:34:15.080 They're saying, OK, see what we're doing.

00:34:16.900 We're doing all this important stuff and we're meeting sovereignty.

00:34:19.740 So they're like, no, you're not.

00:34:21.060 You're meeting the basic needs of the population and particularly the basic needs that you've allowed to to deteriorate so badly of the northern indigenous peoples. 0.99

00:34:30.060 And you need to, of course, be addressing that.

00:34:32.300 But that doesn't give you a buy because you can't turn around and say that that is somehow adding to our sovereignty unless you can convince the international community that somehow that asserts Canadian control over it.

00:34:45.960 And, of course, it doesn't.

00:34:48.480 Right.

00:34:49.140 Last question I have for you, Professor, is looking forward.

00:34:53.280 Do you have any expectation as an expert in this area that a change in federal government leadership will bring about a serious change in Canada's Arctic posture and our Arctic defense capabilities?

00:35:05.000 The change of government that will cause that will be the Trump administration.

00:35:08.800 Once again, we know that historically speaking, be it conservative governments such as the Moroni government, be it liberal governments such as the Pierre Trudeau administration, where they respond the most meaningfully is when the Americans do something.

00:35:26.760 And so in the 1950s, the Americans were going to go ahead with or without us to respond to the Soviet threat. 0.73

00:35:33.980 And so, therefore, we participated very fully in the placement of the dew line and basically putting military capabilities in the Arctic region.

00:35:44.440 In 1969, when the American icebreaker Manhattan went through the Northwest Passage that forced Trudeau, Jr., to develop a series of environmentally international progressive looking laws that gave us a functional control to a limited degree.

00:36:01.720 Not complete, you know, and that's where the problem always relies.

00:36:04.860 And, of course, the Moroni conservative government, it's when the American icebreaker polar sea goes through that we see one of the most meaningful Arctic policies developed.

00:36:14.700 You know, the Joe Clark announcement in September 10th in Parliament of what constitutes Canada's Arctic policy.

00:36:20.800 So change of government doesn't matter for a Canadian.

00:36:24.160 In other words, we see a commonality of behavior from liberal and conservative governments throughout time of where they put their money.

00:36:32.880 They inevitably are responding to American action.

00:36:36.840 And so given the fact that we've already had a bit of a hint of what we can expect in the first administration of the Trump, the biggest changer would be, of course, in regards to a Trump administration.

00:36:46.720 It would come in at least two impacts.

00:36:49.220 It would come first and foremost.

00:36:50.980 As I said, Trump seems to be determined for, you know, it's just like when he said, I'm going to buy Greenland, which was, of course, a nonsicle northern policy.

00:36:58.680 I think he probably misread a briefing that he got or misheard, you know, when they're saying we have to do more with Greenland because we have a major base up at Thule.

00:37:07.580 Well, it's no longer Thule.

00:37:08.640 I'm always forgetting the new name.

00:37:10.000 But anyway, we have a major important strategic base in that location. 0.92

00:37:14.900 And so I think he misheard and said, well, let's just buy the damn place, you know, given, you know, and there are there are reasons to believe that's exactly how it is built out. 0.93

00:37:24.300 So that's the first thing. 0.84

00:37:25.600 The second thing, of course, is if he's serious about pulling out of NATO, if the moment he does that, that is going to embolden a much more aggressive Russia.

00:37:35.020 And it will probably also send a very dangerous sign to the Chinese, in which case you can see the Americans probably trying to pull back to an isolationist Pax North America, which means, of course, protecting the borders even more so. 0.93

00:37:49.540 Because if all of a sudden the Russians think that they have a free hand in Europe, you know, in terms of where that's going to take in terms of a war within Europe.

00:37:58.460 In that context, we can expect to see much more violence occurring.

00:38:02.520 And so therefore, there'll be a pressure to say, OK, we have to make sure.

00:38:06.300 Remember, he's already promising what yesterday we're going to have the best Iron Dome in the United States.

00:38:13.000 Well, if you're going to have an Iron Dome, you've got to protect all of North America.

00:38:16.500 And so there will be tremendous pressure on Canada to make a much more meaningful contribution to NORAD in a much more dangerous international environment.

00:38:25.580 And so those are the two forces I see, the sovereignty and the security side that are going to bring tremendous pressure on to Canada if we see Trump elected.

00:38:37.320 Fascinating. Professor, thank you so much for joining us.

00:38:40.560 It's always my pleasure, Harrison. I look forward to next time.

Juno News - February 07, 2024

Arctic Sovereignty： Canada's greatest challenge？

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