Juno News - April 10, 2025


Are the Conservatives gaining momentum in the polls？

Topics
police endorsements and election concerns Polyevre rally crowds vs. Carney
Hosted by
Isaac Lamoureux
Mentioned
Pierre Poilievre Mark Carney Gregor Robertson Justin Trudeau Vancouver Mayor Freedom Convoy Waterloo Marie
Carney refuses to condemn China's election meddling on his behalf Mark Carney vows to defend access to puberty blockers

Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

160.22

Word count

1,824

Sentence count

77

Harmful content

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

New polling numbers show the federal election race tightening, with the Liberals barely holding on to a lead as the Conservatives close the gap. A second major police union in Ontario throws its support behind Conservative leader Pierre Polyev, citing rising crime and concerns with the Liberal government. Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Gregor Robertson compared his rally crowds to the Freedom Convoy, sparking backlash from the Conservative camp.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 New polling numbers show the federal election race tightening, with the Kearney Liberals barely holding on to a lead as the Conservatives close the gap.
00:00:12.480 A second major police union in Ontario throws its support behind Conservative leader Pierre Polyev, citing rising crime and concerns with the Liberal government.
00:00:22.080 Liberal candidate Gregor Robertson compared Pierre Polyev's rally crowds to the Freedom Convoy, sparking backlash from the Conservative camp.
00:00:30.700 Hello Canada, it's Thursday, April 10th, and this is the True North Daily Brief. I'm Isaac Lamoureux.
00:00:36.180 And I'm Clayton Demain.
00:00:37.340 We've got you covered with all the news you need to know. Let's discuss the top stories of the day and the True North exclusives you won't hear anywhere else.
00:00:45.620 According to a new national poll commissioned by Juno News and conducted by One Persuasion on Monday, April 7th and Tuesday, April 8th,
00:00:56.840 the Kearney Liberals still hold a slight lead with 39% of the vote, down 4% from last week.
00:01:03.260 Polyev's Conservatives are gaining in momentum off big rallies and major enthusiasm and have inched up to 36%, which is up 3% from last week.
00:01:11.940 While the story of the campaign remains the collapse of Singh's NDP, that party is regaining some support with 14%, also up 3% from last week,
00:01:21.100 and the Conservatives hold a two-point lead over the Liberals, with the Conservatives at 40%, the Liberals at 38%, and the NDP at 14%.
00:01:29.620 Equally as informative to the state of the race is the percent of people who indicated they don't know how their neighbours are going to vote.
00:01:36.380 Nationally, this number stands at 31%, with Quebecers indicating 44% of them don't know how their neighbours are going to vote,
00:01:44.640 and 41% of women, 55 and older, indicated the same.
00:01:48.900 This indicates increased potential for movement in those given areas.
00:01:52.800 The region with the lowest level of uncertainty is in the Prairies, where 23% indicated they don't know how their neighbours are going to vote.
00:01:59.220 On ballot, the most interesting movement has been taking place in Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois continue to lead with 35%, down from 40% from last week,
00:02:09.160 followed by the Liberals with 30%, which is down from 35%, with the Conservatives in third at 22%, which has come up from 18%,
00:02:17.740 and the New Democrats yielding 9%, which rose from 3%.
00:02:21.860 Ontario also saw significant movement.
00:02:24.260 The Liberals still lead with 44%, down from 48%, with the Conservatives at 37%, up from 34%, and the NDP at 14%, which is up from 13%.
00:02:35.060 British Columbia now sees the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 36%, with the New Democrats in third at 24%.
00:02:41.840 Some of the most dramatic shifts in support came from age and gender.
00:02:45.260 Among men, between the ages of 18 and 34%, 37% support the Conservatives, with the Liberals at 29%, and the New Democrats at 21%.
00:02:54.700 So, Clayton, where are both party leaders concentrating their campaigning this week?
00:02:58.620 Yeah, Isaac, so off the heels of that record-breakingly large rally in Edmonton that you were at,
00:03:05.760 where around 15,000 participants showed up to support Polyev,
00:03:10.420 his campaign is focusing significantly in Ontario this week.
00:03:15.420 And so many of the listeners likely know the last Liberal governments were elected mainly with support from just Ontario and Quebec.
00:03:22.420 So Polyev is likely trying to cut in on the Liberals' support in Ontario.
00:03:27.420 Just yesterday, he held a rally in Brampton and a press conference in Sault Ste. Marie.
00:03:33.420 While today, he was in Milton, Ontario, around the Mississauga area, and is set to hold a rally in Kitchener, Waterloo.
00:03:41.880 On Friday and Saturday, he has events in St. Catharines, Windsor, and ends the week off in Ottawa, the nation's capital, on Saturday.
00:03:50.680 The Liberals, on the other hand, have been focusing efforts on the West Coast, with rallies and events in BC, at the beginning of the week.
00:03:59.080 And just Tuesday, Carney took his first campaign stop in Alberta by holding a rally in Calgary.
00:04:05.080 Again, as True North has reported, Carney's crowds are dwarfed in comparison to the crowds Polyev is attracting, 0.79
00:04:12.080 though we'll see if that enthusiasm can be translated into votes on Election Day.
00:04:17.080 Polyev obviously enjoys a lot of support from Alberta, so similar to Polyev,
00:04:23.080 Carney is likely trying to chip away at support in the rival strongholds.
00:04:27.080 Another Canadian police union has endorsed Conservative leader Pierre Polyev in the upcoming federal election.
00:04:37.080 The Durham Regional Police Association has endorsed Pierre Polyev and the Conservative Party of Canada,
00:04:42.080 marking the second major police union in the Greater Toronto Area to back the Conservative leader ahead of the upcoming federal election.
00:04:51.080 The union said, quote, the Durham Regional Police Association is proud to endorse the Conservative Party of Canada and Pierre Polyev in the upcoming federal election.
00:05:00.080 In their statement, the association said its endorsement reflects growing concern among frontline officers about rising crime
00:05:08.080 and what it described as a lack of support for police under the current Liberal government.
00:05:14.080 The Peel Regional Police Association has likewise endorsed Polyev for Prime Minister.
00:05:19.080 Meanwhile, the Toronto Police Association called on the two main party leaders to respond to four key public safety concerns before Friday, April 18th.
00:05:29.080 In a formal letter posted through various social media channels, the TPA told Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Polyev
00:05:38.080 that more than 8,500 police and civilian members are, quote, watching this election closely to see how each party will deal with these pressing issues.
00:05:49.080 So, Isaac, what are some of those major concerns that police unions have raised when it comes to crime and public safety in this election?
00:05:58.080 Yeah, Clayton, just starting with the four concerns you mentioned, they are bail reform, the Liberals' gun buyback program,
00:06:05.080 High Risk Offenders and the Correction and Conditional Release Act, and adequate staffing for police.
00:06:11.080 So, obviously, much of these issues are not new to this election and the reforms that these organizations and others have been calling for for months, if not years.
00:06:19.080 The bail reform point has been brought up by almost everyone under the sun, including Canada's provincial and territorial premiers.
00:06:27.080 The group of premiers wrote to the federal government under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and urged him to revisit bail reform.
00:06:33.080 Of course, the feds subsequently denied the request and actually blamed the premiers.
00:06:38.080 Conservative leader Pierre Polyevre has pledged to end the Liberals' catch and release system, citing as early as this Wednesday that violent crime increased by 50% because the Liberals support laws letting repeat offenders out of jail.
00:06:52.080 He previously cited 40 individuals in Vancouver being arrested 6,000 times in one year.
00:06:59.080 As for the Liberals' gun buyback program, we'll remember that despite allocating over $600 million to the program so far, the Liberals have still not collected a single gun.
00:07:10.080 As for staffing, fixing many of the policies that are seeing rampant crime that police frankly get blamed for despite they themselves having their hands tied, with the courts being in a similar predicament, making life easier on them through policy reform might help with recruitment.
00:07:26.080 Polyevre recently cited bringing back the warrior mindset to Canada's military when he was speaking at the Edmonton rally while pledging to get rid of the woke virus.
00:07:36.080 We've seen woke ideology infiltrate some police organizations and maybe Polyevre will take a similar approach in regard to that.
00:07:44.080 People have criticized Mark Carney for not having much to say about the country's rampant crime while the Conservatives have taken a much stronger stance against it.
00:07:57.080 Former Vancouver Mayor and Liberal candidate Gregor Robertson likened the size of Conservative leader Pierre Polyevre's rally crowds to the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests, claiming that supporters were united in, quote, a resentment for government.
00:08:11.080 Robertson made the comments Tuesday following a rally by Liberal leader Mark Carney in Delta, BC.
00:08:16.080 A spokesperson for Polyevre's campaign responded by telling True North that, quote,
00:08:21.080 comments like that from the Liberals really show what they think of the millions of Canadians who are struggling and want change in this country.
00:08:27.080 Robertson has been attending Carney's campaign stops along the West Coast in Richmond and Delta this week, running as the Liberal candidate in Vancouver-Frasierview, South Burnaby.
00:08:36.080 First reported by the National Post, Robertson was asked why he thought Polyevre was attracting such massive crowds in comparison to Carney, which he dismissed as people who were simply unsatisfied with the status quo.
00:08:48.080 Polyevre held a rally in Edmonton Tuesday, which saw around 15,000 people in attendance, which marks a major sign of his message resonating when compared to the 2,400 people who showed up for Carney at the Richmond rally.
00:09:00.080 So, Clayton, do these claims hold water? Has Polyevre, who is running to become Prime Minister, campaigned on a message of government resentment?
00:09:08.080 Well, that's fair to say about aspects of Polyevre's campaign.
00:09:12.080 He's tapping into the sentiment of regular Canadians who are tired of the government's mishandling of so many files that affect their lives.
00:09:19.080 He's campaigned against government spending, which leads to inflation, and against government red tape, which delays many projects such as building, housing, energy projects, and the economy in general.
00:09:32.080 When it comes to crime and safety, Polyevre has also noted several catch and release policies implemented by the Trudeau Liberal government, which have resulted in spikes in crime.
00:09:43.080 He rallies against the Liberal government's ethics violations, corruption, and mass immigration policies.
00:09:49.080 So, although Polyevre has a positive message about how he would change the country, with that, part of his mission on the campaign is to define exactly the issues caused by the Liberal government that Canadians want changed from.
00:10:03.080 He's also sticking the last years of Liberal policies on Carney, the Carney-led Liberals, as Carney has done little to distance himself from the same policies and government officials that he's claiming to represent a change from.
00:10:17.080 Carney still supports a carbon tax on industry and hasn't eliminated the carbon tax law, meaning after the election he could crank it up again.
00:10:26.080 And he hasn't said anything about crime and safety beyond platitudes.
00:10:31.080 And on the immigration file, he's even appointed a former BlackRock manager as his advisor, who is a leading advocate for the Century Initiative, which advocates for Canada to raise its population to 100 million by the end of the century.
00:10:47.080 So Polyevre's likely strategy at his rallies is to attack the government, which is likely not to change on key issues under Carney, to show Canadians that electing the Liberals for a fourth term will be business as usual and will result in a continuation of the policies that he's highlighting as issues for Canadians.
00:11:09.080 That's it for today, folks.
00:11:14.080 Thanks for tuning in.
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