00:02:51.580But did, so are you actually, like, doing the good citizen thing and, like, you know, showering every, you know, nine days or whatever it is they're asking you to do?
00:02:58.500Or are you just, like, business as usual?
00:03:00.800Well, I left the city for about five days.
00:03:03.580So I'm hoping that means I get to use up all of the water I didn't use.
00:03:08.260Oh, yeah, you've accrued, yeah, you've accrued water credits.
00:03:28.060But, you know, I like to think that, you know, the Calgarians were self-righteous about, you know, having the, being the best part of Canada, you know, and now they're looking to Toronto, you know, spare any water?
00:03:43.960You got to get some water shipments from Atlantic Canada, will you?
00:03:46.480I mean, there is an awful lot of water out there, although Toronto only seems to be sending us their crime and we're perfectly okay if Toronto didn't keep doing that.
00:03:54.740I'm just imagining like a line of people from, you know, Halifax to Calgary, just holding like a pail that they just keep dumping, dumping into the next one there.
00:04:08.840Let's talk about the one thing we can all unite on, Calgarian or Ontarian or Manitoban or from anywhere else, which is that the Liberals are not exactly popular right now.
00:04:19.840The latest poll that came out was from Abacus.
00:04:23.040It showed the Conservatives with a 20-point lead, literally 40%, 40-some-odd percent, exactly 20 points ahead of the Liberals.
00:04:43.060And no one in that party is openly saying that Justin Trudeau is the problem.
00:04:50.080And there was a piece in Radio Canada, the French arm of CBC, which interviewed a few anonymous MPs that were all saying, basically, they need to change in leader, but they don't actually have an ability to get rid of him.
00:05:02.400Now we have the Liberals getting a little bit desperate on all sorts of things.
00:05:08.160Yeah, well, a couple of days ago, Liberal MP Mark Garrison, perpetually not a caucus member of the cabinet, so, you know, just want to put that out there.
00:05:18.600But Mark Garrison, he printed a mug from, I guess, his local Walmart photo center, and he has it plastered on it with a big face of Jennifer O'Connell and the quote, boo-hoo, get over it.
00:05:31.740Now, if you might recall, Jennifer O'Connell in a committee meeting, she basically said, boo-hoo, get over it, to Conservative MP who was trying to demand the government release the names,
00:05:42.780or at least be a bit more transparent of what is in the NCI COP foreign interference report, which basically stated that there are certain parliamentarians who have been collaborating with foreign governments against the interests of Canada.
00:05:57.140And so, you know, just to brag about protecting people who are potentially betraying our country is quite something, but I don't know.
00:06:06.020It seems like the Liberals, they sink to new depths every week that goes by.
00:06:11.700Yeah, I mean, Mark Garrison is, I don't really hold him up as being a skilled political operator by any stretch, but I'm trying to think of what this would be like.
00:06:22.080Like, this would be like Justin Trudeau drinking out of an Essency Lavalin mug after he fired Jody Wilson-Raybould.
00:06:27.200It would be like, you know, Harper drinking out of a Mike Duffy mug at the middle of the expensive scandal, basically.
00:06:32.640Like, it just says, I do not care about this thing that Canadians clearly do care about.
00:06:38.020Canadians are clearly frustrated about.
00:06:40.560And just to go back to the poll numbers for a second, I wanted to ask you about this, William, because this house just rose for the summer.
00:06:46.360I think it was Wednesday, Wednesday or Thursday, whenever it was, which means that they've now got, you know, basically three months of runway to go out and campaign, spend time in their ridings.
00:06:57.080Like, what do you think Justin Trudeau, is there something he could do to turn this around?
00:07:02.640And if there is, what would that look like over this summer?
00:07:06.180Yeah, I mean, it's an interesting question.
00:07:07.360MPs usually spend an awful lot of their calendar year, actually, in Ottawa.
00:07:15.160The House sits a lot longer than many of our provincial legislative assemblies do.
00:07:19.940But, you know, now you've got sort of a two-month break and you're going to have Liberal MPs back in their ridings.
00:07:25.400And I think they're going to get a bit of an earful from voters over the course of the summer as they go to every church fair, small town festival, Lions Club or senior center to visit.
00:07:36.260They're going to be hearing, I think, a lot of unpopularity.
00:07:39.520And that is going to put pressure on the prime minister.
00:07:41.760I think he is going to come back at the end of summer and there's going to be a sense that things are not going well.
00:07:47.980And, you know, I think they really tried to change the channel with their budget and that didn't work.
00:07:53.380They thought the capital gains tax cut was going to be a slam dunk.
00:08:29.160It was because if you vote for the Liberals, they could blow up the economy.
00:08:32.880By the way, turned out to be completely true.
00:08:34.940But, you know, what is Justin Trudeau going to say?
00:08:38.320Vote for us or Pierre Poliver will take away your abortion or will, you know, put you all into concentration camps because he's a white supremacist.
00:08:48.780I don't think that's a compelling message.
00:08:51.160So is there anything the prime minister can do to turn it around?
00:08:54.080Well, there's one thing he could he could go, I guess.
00:08:58.220Yeah, I think it was a line from, you know, was it, you'd know if it was from Frazier where it's like, you know, so-and-so lights up a room by leaving it.
00:09:07.680That was the, I can't even remember who it was about, but there is something about that.
00:09:11.420Like right now, you've got a lot of Liberals that are just waiting.
00:09:14.040And again, I mean, who the heck wants to take over that?
00:09:16.220Like you'd end up with someone who doesn't have ambitions of being the leader long term that would just be an interim prime minister and get the Liberals through the election.
00:09:24.940And then afterwards, they can have their, you know, grand reconstruction with, you know, Mark Carney or something like that.
00:09:30.940But I'll ask, you know, as you alluded to before we started recording here, you are half my age.
00:10:00.440Like all of these things that are naturally pushing people in Pierre Polyev's direction.
00:10:05.560But when you talk to people your age, what's the sense of Justin Trudeau?
00:10:08.340I think the sense of Trudeau is like he's a phony and that he's robbed sort of my generation of their future.
00:10:15.600You know, people who are apolitical, they tell me that, you know, they have no sort of opportunity or shot to buy a home in the next 10 years.
00:10:24.200And, you know, they're 20 and they want to, you know, start a buy a home, start a family like everyone else, you know, in human history.
00:10:29.980Yet this is not really possible, not just for young Canadians, but even people who are like in their 40s, you know, there's people who are still renting far longer than they thought they would be when they voted for Trudeau originally.
00:10:42.240You know, and, you know, a lot of them, they probably thought, oh, you know, he'll we'll be able to get some pot and, you know, hotbox my new home when I'm, you know, in my 30s.
00:10:51.520And then, you know, he can't buy a home. So now you're smoking pot in a homeless shelter.
00:10:55.640So, you know, it's not really great for Canadians who are going through these times.
00:11:00.240Quite the vivid picture you're painting, Noah.
00:11:03.680You know, but it's not it's not really great for the average Canadian who has to, you know, get up every day, go to a job, come home, cook food for their children and, you know, all those things.
00:11:15.800Instead, it's really great for, you know, liberal insiders who are, you know, making money off SDTC or who are just, you know, really wealthy and just profiting off of their assets, getting a lot more expensive.
00:11:30.420What's your read on the coalition, William?
00:11:34.720Because I think there have been you've been involved in conservative politics since it was reform politics.
00:11:38.400So you've seen the various iterations of this party.
00:11:41.300It seems like the base of accessible voters looks a lot different now than it did for Harper and certainly than it did for, you know, the alliance before him.
00:11:51.520Yeah, no, I think something you really have to give credit to Pierre Poliver, either because he read Alberta pronunciation.
00:11:58.900Yeah, I get I should say probably I apologize.
00:12:03.200You have to give him credit, though, because he either read where Canadians were going or he helped to bring them there himself.
00:12:12.320But he really did change the fundamental voter coalition for the conservative party.
00:12:18.540A lot of people who either had never voted conservative before are now open to voting conservative or people who had never playing voted at all before are now open to voting conservative and voting for the first time.
00:12:32.160And that's a that's a tremendous difference.
00:12:34.160And it really changes the political calculus.
00:12:36.300When when Stephen Harper was trying to win his majority government back in 2011, the path to victory was on the edge of a knife.
00:12:44.860Right. You know, it required the new Democrats to outperform anywhere they've ever been.
00:12:50.040The liberals to hit historic untimed historic lows in popularity and the absolute right set of conditions, because the conservatives at best could scrape up to just about 40 percent under ideal conditions.
00:13:03.460And now you're seeing with these polls that Pierre is routinely getting above 40 percent.
00:13:09.320So that voter ceiling is higher, which makes the path to a conservative government far more easy, far easier than it's been in the past.
00:13:18.320And for the liberals, the exact same problem, but an opposite.
00:13:20.880They have a much smaller voter universe.
00:13:22.340Them being able to hold on to power becomes it was already difficult.
00:13:25.320They were already winning minority governments with the lowest percentage of the popular vote in our history.
00:13:30.000And now it's all but impossible for them unless something fundamental changes in the next year.
00:13:35.540Yeah. Like I recall during the 2021 election, it would have been I had made a I don't even know if it was a prediction per se, but I had remarked that I couldn't see another conservative majority government in Canada.
00:13:47.200Like I just was not seeing that for the reasons you just mentioned.
00:13:50.080And people forget the 2011 election was weird for a number of reasons.
00:13:53.900That was the election in which you had all of these like, you know, 12 year old NDP MPs that were elected in Quebec.
00:13:59.540It was the year you had, you know, this collapse of the bloc, a collapse of the liberals.
00:14:40.560It seems a lot more natural than it did even for Harper in 2011.
00:14:43.720And there's definitely more parts of the country that are competitive.
00:14:48.360The conservatives are absolutely dominating a large swath of British Columbia, including quite close to Vancouver, the proper city of Vancouver itself, which is not always something they've been competitive in.
00:15:00.580In fact, I think it's been back until the 2000 election that the conservatives have been this popular in and around the region.
00:15:06.240They're competitive in large swaths of Quebec, including coming up to, if not actually in Montreal, pretty darn close to it.
00:15:13.760And a ton of Atlantic Canada, which used to be considered a safe liberal bastion, is now trending very much towards the conservatives.
00:15:21.440And I think it's because everything what we know, property values, the cost of housing, the cost of living, the fact that the carbon tax is deeply unpopular from one end of the country to the other.
00:15:32.840All of these are giving Pierre Prollievre and his conservative party a lot more opportunity electorally than any conservative has had since, I would say, Stephen Harper in 2011, or possibly even since before that.
00:15:46.520And there is coming up going to be one test of the political leaders to some extent.
00:16:01.320But in Toronto St. Paul's, it's usually considered a safe liberal rioting.
00:16:05.820There's going to be a by-election, but it looks like it's going to be suspiciously competitive because I have 338 Canada up right now.
00:16:13.240It says that the conservatives are within striking distance of the liberal candidate.
00:16:18.300They are polling at about 35% to 40% for the liberals.
00:16:22.400Now, riding by riding, sort of polling isn't as, say, accurate as, say, you know, national polling.
00:16:27.800But at the end of the day, the fact that the conservatives are even competitive in this riding shows that there is a massive swing in Canada.
00:16:36.280I mean, Toronto used to be, you know, a liberal stronghold that was impenetrable, especially the downtown core of Toronto.
00:16:42.260I mean, we're talking about, like, you know, the people who are, you know, living up in apartments and, you know, they take the TTC instead of a car.
00:16:49.900And, you know, they are the most concerned about climate and stuff like that.
00:16:53.300This is the type of people that are swinging over to the conservatives.
00:16:57.140So the fact that Trudeau really has, you know, pissed these people off is it's incredible.
00:17:02.320Yeah, and it's funny because Toronto Paul's used to always be the one where if you were the conservative there, you were the sacrificial lamb.
00:17:09.860And you do it either because you're, you know, a complete idiot that doesn't know what a conservative at St. Paul's is,
00:17:14.920or you're doing it because you want to get in the good books so that, you know, down the road you can get Mississauga Streetsville or something as a candidate or get some good staffer job.