Juno News - By-elections deliver caution for Conservatives and bad news for PPC

00:00:00.000 Welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.

00:00:05.480 This is the Andrew Lawton Show, brought to you by True North.

00:00:12.800 Hello and welcome to you all.

00:00:15.500 This is another edition of Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show,

00:00:19.400 the Andrew Lawton Show, here on True North on this Tuesday, June 21st.

00:00:23.880 I hope you're having a wonderful day.

00:00:25.980 Is it the first day of summer today?

00:00:27.960 I always forget. It's in and around now.

00:00:29.560 The 20th or the... No, it's the 20th.

00:00:31.980 What am I... I've got the day wrong, so just don't even listen to me at all.

00:00:35.520 It's June 20th. It still could be the start of summer. I don't know.

00:00:38.920 The weather is nice where I am, but I just saw that Jasper had like a dumping of snow the other day,

00:00:44.600 which I guess is par for the course if you live in that part of Alberta.

00:00:47.380 But that is the one thing. I love everything about Alberta.

00:00:50.500 I would live in Alberta in a heartbeat. I used to work in Alberta.

00:00:53.640 That's the one thing that I don't necessarily get on board with.

00:00:57.120 But it's the whole snow in June.

00:00:59.340 So if we could like global warming ourself out of that problem,

00:01:02.000 it would be the absolutely perfect province.

00:01:04.600 But nevertheless, we're not here to talk about the weather, at least not always.

00:01:09.640 I do want to talk in a little bit with former Finance Minister Joe Oliver about this kerfuffle.

00:01:16.140 It's a little bit more than a kerfuffle, perhaps a din and a do. I don't know.

00:01:20.160 This controversy involving the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,

00:01:24.460 a Canadian comms guy on that bank, resigned last week,

00:01:28.980 triggering a whole withdrawal of Canada, or at least a temporary freezing of Canada

00:01:35.180 and its involvement in this Beijing-headquartered bank,

00:01:39.700 which has long been criticized as being a financial tool of the Chinese Politburo.

00:01:43.700 And now, finally, it seems Canada has decided to recognize this.

00:01:47.500 So we'll talk to Joe Oliver about that very shortly in the program.

00:01:51.360 I want to begin by doing something which is in some ways against my better judgment,

00:01:55.920 but I still feel is important here.

00:01:57.740 I don't like the ins and outs.

00:01:59.040 I never cover polls on this show,

00:02:01.320 because I find polls to be just the utterly uninteresting thing

00:02:04.580 that you can talk about in politics that are also pretty inconsequential.

00:02:08.040 I mean, sometimes you may get a peripheral insight about politics from a poll,

00:02:12.380 but they tell you nothing, and even though it's an overused slogan,

00:02:16.140 the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, is kind of true.

00:02:19.820 So yesterday, we did have an Election Day poll.

00:02:23.400 Four, to be specific, and four ridings across the country.

00:02:26.380 One of them in Ontario, not far from me.

00:02:28.640 Oxford, one of them, well, two of them actually in Manitoba.

00:02:31.800 One is Portage-Lisker, the other Winnipeg South Centre,

00:02:35.100 and then another in Montreal.

00:02:36.680 Now, the top-line news of this is that there is zero change whatsoever.

00:02:42.500 Any party who held the seat going into the by-election holds the seat now.

00:02:47.020 But that doesn't mean there isn't a little bit that maybe you should take away from a couple of the ridings.

00:02:52.980 In particular, the two that the Conservatives won, Portage-Lisker and Oxford.

00:02:57.840 Now, Oxford is a big...

00:03:00.200 Both of these ridings have been on my radar because I've covered them

00:03:04.060 and some of the fights within them on this show.

00:03:06.860 Oxford, just by way of catching you up,

00:03:09.880 was the riding in which the Conservatives did not allow Garrett Van Dorland,

00:03:15.240 a prominent social Conservative activist and organiser, to run.

00:03:18.940 Instead, they seemed to prefer Arpan Kanna.

00:03:22.780 And while they didn't appoint him, he was the winner of the nomination once Van Dorland was out of the way.

00:03:28.820 But this raised the ire of Dave McKenzie,

00:03:33.000 who had this riding for, I think, 17, 18 years.

00:03:37.480 He had the riding for quite a while.

00:03:39.240 And Dave McKenzie wanted his daughter to be the MP.

00:03:42.820 He wanted his daughter, Deb Tate, to be his successor.

00:03:45.580 She was running for the nomination.

00:03:47.460 And he was just all pissy and ended up endorsing the Liberals.

00:03:52.380 So you had the former Conservative MP knocking on doors with the Liberals,

00:03:56.740 knocking on doors, talking to Chrystia Freeland at the door.

00:03:59.700 You had Dave McKenzie running radio ads when I was driving around.

00:04:03.360 I live in London, which is not Woodstock or Oxford County.

00:04:06.760 And they were just blasting these ads into London as well.

00:04:10.980 And I was hearing, oh, I'm the former Conservative MP,

00:04:13.300 but I'm standing up for the Liberals, yada, yada, yada.

00:04:15.480 So it was a riding.

00:04:16.820 And there was one poll that came out last week or earlier this week, whatever it was.

00:04:21.200 And that poll had a dead tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

00:04:26.400 And I didn't believe it, but it was one to watch.

00:04:29.160 Anyway, the Conservatives still won the riding.

00:04:32.400 Arpan Canna, who I actually worked with in Ottawa many, many years ago,

00:04:36.220 ended up winning the riding with 43%.

00:04:38.900 He had about, what is it?

00:04:40.780 I don't know, 26, 2700 vote lead over the Liberals,

00:04:45.380 which is, again, a win is a win.

00:04:47.980 And I don't want to start getting into this whole,

00:04:50.860 like, well, maybe a win is a loss and maybe a loss is a win

00:04:53.620 and maybe a win is a win, but it's kind of a loss,

00:04:56.000 like all that sort of stuff.

00:04:56.880 Because, yeah, all you need to win is one more vote than the other guy

00:05:00.180 in elections or the other gal, so to speak.

00:05:02.800 But the one thing I will say is worth noting here

00:05:06.220 is that this is not the best showing for the Conservatives.

00:05:09.840 And the 2021 election, Dave McKenzie had 47%.

00:05:14.480 The Liberals had 20%.

00:05:16.120 The 2019 election, Dave McKenzie had 48%.

00:05:19.520 The NDP actually came second with 20%, 48 to 20.

00:05:25.360 And in 2015, again, Dave McKenzie, 45,

00:05:28.800 and the Liberals in second place at 32%.

00:05:32.460 So this is a commanding result for the Liberals,

00:05:36.200 even if it is still a loss.

00:05:37.540 And do we take from that that Dave McKenzie was just so eager

00:05:41.200 to support the Liberals that a bunch of Conservatives voted Liberal?

00:05:46.260 Maybe, maybe not.

00:05:47.320 You never know.

00:05:48.240 But I do think that there might be a bit of a caution in this

00:05:51.820 to the Conservative Party, which is that when you attract

00:05:54.860 the wrong kind of attention to a riding,

00:05:57.380 sometimes these results are going to happen.

00:05:59.280 And I thought Garrett Van Dorland would have made a good candidate.

00:06:03.000 I have nothing against Arpan Canna.

00:06:04.560 I think he was a fine candidate.

00:06:05.960 And I know from having been a candidate who was appointed in the past,

00:06:10.100 I've talked about this, my own experience in 2018,

00:06:12.900 it is tremendously unfair to everyone,

00:06:15.120 including the person who is the appointed candidate.

00:06:17.780 Now, again, Arpan was not appointed.

00:06:19.740 So that's not the issue.

00:06:20.620 But I'm saying that when the party starts mucking around in nominations

00:06:24.500 and deciding who's running and who's not,

00:06:27.160 beyond really brazen disqualifying things,

00:06:30.860 the person who's the beneficiary of this,

00:06:33.140 either directly or indirectly, all of a sudden has an albatross

00:06:36.520 that they have to carry.

00:06:37.820 And so this is, again, a caution for the Conservative Party of Canada in that.

00:06:42.740 But Portage-Lisker, let's talk about that,

00:06:44.760 because this was the one that I ended up having to wade into last week

00:06:47.740 when Maxime Bernier decided that Andrew Lawton and True North

00:06:51.800 were big old sellouts and all that.

00:06:53.800 And I don't want to rehash the whole WEF Portage-Lisker controversy.

00:06:58.660 You can listen to last week's shows if you want to get caught up on that.

00:07:02.780 But the big question here was,

00:07:05.400 is the PPC alive or is the PPC dead?

00:07:09.660 That was the question heading into this,

00:07:12.480 because in the 2021 election,

00:07:15.460 the People's Party of Canada had its strongest showing nationally in this riding.

00:07:20.360 And in 2021, Maxime Bernier wasn't the candidate,

00:07:23.120 but the PPC got 21.58%,

00:07:26.860 which was a significant dent to Candace Bergen,

00:07:31.240 the Conservative candidate,

00:07:32.420 who is used to like pulling in 70%,

00:07:34.900 like she did in 2019,

00:07:36.460 but in 2021 got 52%.

00:07:39.060 Now, again, you're still winning with more than half of the voters,

00:07:42.440 but this signaled a pretty big issue for the Conservatives

00:07:46.400 if the PPC numbers kept up.

00:07:48.720 So if you do the big drum roll here,

00:07:50.840 the PPC ended up pulling in 17.2% yesterday.

00:07:55.680 Now, that is with Maxime Bernier,

00:07:57.280 the leader of the party,

00:07:58.580 standing as the candidate.

00:07:59.800 That is with an aggressive campaign,

00:08:02.280 a well-known guy.

00:08:03.880 And it is, again,

00:08:05.680 I think a bit of a caution.

00:08:07.260 Now, look,

00:08:07.840 if the PPC were to pull in 17.2% nationally,

00:08:11.900 it would be a tremendous achievement.

00:08:13.940 But in the riding that they were trumpeting as their strongest,

00:08:17.300 it is not exactly great.

00:08:20.200 And by the way,

00:08:20.900 I talked to Maxime Bernier about this

00:08:22.500 in my first interview with him about this race,

00:08:24.360 and I gave him a bit of an out.

00:08:25.760 I said,

00:08:26.100 what to you is a win?

00:08:28.180 This was that clip.

00:08:30.200 So we were discussing earlier,

00:08:31.600 Maxime,

00:08:32.060 the PPC did very well in Portage-Lisker

00:08:34.360 relative to everywhere else in the country.

00:08:36.720 It was the strongest riding.

00:08:38.020 And I know you obviously want to win,

00:08:40.160 but as far as the bigger picture here,

00:08:42.200 what do you consider a win

00:08:43.980 short of a victory on the ballot?

00:08:46.740 I mean,

00:08:46.920 do you feel that you need to get that 20% of the vote

00:08:51.320 to prove that the PPC is still the force it was in 2021?

00:08:56.380 I like your question, Andrew.

00:08:58.740 A win is a win.

00:09:00.240 So a win for me will be

00:09:02.460 to be the MP for people in Portage-Lisker.

00:09:06.360 And I'm here campaigning full-time for them.

00:09:09.380 My segal is full,

00:09:10.860 and I'm very pleased with that.

00:09:12.140 So for me,

00:09:13.080 a win is to be their MP the night of the election.

00:09:16.140 And I believe that it's doable.

00:09:18.120 We have a strong team,

00:09:19.640 and people understand

00:09:20.880 they have the opportunity

00:09:22.260 to send a message to Ottawa right now.

00:09:25.100 And you know,

00:09:25.580 it's not about spitting the vote. 0.94

00:09:27.860 That ridiculous argument is not valid.

00:09:32.100 We won't change the government. 0.71

00:09:33.740 The Trudeau government will be there after the election.

00:09:36.280 So it's safe for them to vote for the PPC,

00:09:39.480 to vote for me.

00:09:40.220 And actually,

00:09:41.440 I will be their insurance policy

00:09:43.660 that Poitier,

00:09:45.100 if he has the courage to be a conservative,

00:09:49.140 I will support him.

00:09:51.200 But I will bring that debate in Ottawa,

00:09:53.420 and I will support Poitier

00:09:54.980 when or if he is a real conservative

00:09:57.880 with real conservative family values.

00:10:00.560 So it's a win-win for people in this writing,

00:10:03.220 and they understand that.

00:10:04.300 And that's why my answer to your question is,

00:10:07.400 a win is a win.

00:10:08.440 Well, as you heard there,

00:10:09.640 his answer was pretty clear.

00:10:10.920 A win is a win.

00:10:11.860 So in contrast,

00:10:12.780 this is a loss.

00:10:14.160 Now,

00:10:14.600 how the party is going to spin this

00:10:16.360 in the days and weeks to come,

00:10:18.080 I don't know.

00:10:19.140 But the big question was,

00:10:20.460 you know,

00:10:20.760 does Pierre Pauly have a PPC problem on his hands?

00:10:24.320 I don't think he does based on these results.

00:10:27.180 Now,

00:10:27.540 obviously,

00:10:28.080 the PPC could rebuild,

00:10:29.520 and they could have a great showing,

00:10:31.240 and maybe next election,

00:10:32.500 they'll find some other riding like Portage-Lisker

00:10:34.440 where they have some strangely uncharacteristic

00:10:37.820 and positive response.

00:10:39.480 And,

00:10:39.900 you know,

00:10:40.220 I know that because of this fight

00:10:42.020 that ended up emerging last week,

00:10:44.040 people think that I have it out for the PPC,

00:10:46.160 and that's actually in no way true.

00:10:48.380 And there have been many cases where I've said,

00:10:50.680 you know,

00:10:51.200 if the PPC were to be elected to something,

00:10:54.660 it would be a pretty significant accountability measure

00:10:58.820 for the Conservatives.

00:11:00.040 Because remember,

00:11:00.860 the PPC only exists as a protest party.

00:11:03.820 It is a party that was created

00:11:05.280 because in Bernier's eyes,

00:11:07.200 the Conservatives were morally and intellectually corrupt,

00:11:10.400 which means that under ideal circumstances,

00:11:12.960 the moral and intellectual corruption

00:11:14.720 that is purported to be

00:11:16.000 in the Conservative Party of Canada

00:11:17.780 would be fixed,

00:11:18.560 and everyone could be united again.

00:11:20.160 It was the Reform Party

00:11:21.520 that fixed the Progressive Conservative Party.

00:11:24.160 It was the Wild Rose Alliance

00:11:25.320 that fixed the Alberta PCs.

00:11:27.080 These fractures and reunitings,

00:11:30.680 if I can use that word,

00:11:32.560 can be tremendously powerful

00:11:34.040 if a party has lost its way.

00:11:36.760 And the problem, though,

00:11:38.280 is that the PPC right now,

00:11:39.960 to a lot of its supporters,

00:11:41.300 by no means all,

00:11:42.360 but to a lot of its supporters,

00:11:44.040 is perpetually and indefinitely

00:11:47.280 positioned on the outside

00:11:49.540 of the mainstream,

00:11:51.460 whatever the mainstream is.

00:11:53.300 And trust me,

00:11:54.120 I understand why you might want nothing to do

00:11:56.160 with the mainstream

00:11:56.740 of what passes for a mainstream today.

00:11:58.960 That is not a judgment on my part.

00:12:01.040 I'm saying that there seem to be

00:12:01.980 a lot of PPC folks I talk to

00:12:03.580 that relish being on the outside

00:12:05.940 and never quite want to be on the inside.

00:12:09.160 And that's going to be,

00:12:10.440 I think, the big challenge.

00:12:11.400 I know for a fact

00:12:12.360 that there are a lot of people

00:12:13.380 that are really diehard PPC supporters

00:12:15.160 that are Maxime Bernier bust,

00:12:17.040 and that's fine.

00:12:17.620 That's your prerogative.

00:12:18.420 But I know there were, in 2021,

00:12:20.880 a lot of soft PPC supporters

00:12:22.420 that said,

00:12:22.940 well, I would vote Conservative

00:12:25.020 if Leslyn Lewis were the leader.

00:12:27.400 Or I would vote Conservative

00:12:28.680 if Pierre Polyev were the leader.

00:12:30.780 Well, you fast forward,

00:12:32.300 and Pierre Polyev is the leader.

00:12:34.460 And a lot of those people,

00:12:35.400 the PPC, I think,

00:12:36.660 is having trouble

00:12:37.980 keeping on to us voters.

00:12:40.520 And again, by-elections can be weird,

00:12:43.140 and they can be anomalous,

00:12:44.280 and you never want to extrapolate

00:12:45.440 too much from these things.

00:12:46.520 But it is a cautionary tale

00:12:49.120 on all fronts.

00:12:49.920 I think there's a caution

00:12:50.820 against the Conservatives

00:12:52.560 in Oxford County

00:12:53.660 of what happens

00:12:54.340 when nominations attract

00:12:55.920 the wrong type of attention.

00:12:57.600 And I think in Portage-Lisker,

00:12:58.860 there is a caution

00:12:59.820 against the PPC

00:13:01.460 that maybe they are not going

00:13:04.280 to coast in as strongly

00:13:05.520 as they did last time

00:13:06.820 and have the upward trajectory

00:13:08.820 that they did last time,

00:13:10.520 which was inconsequential

00:13:12.340 and undeniable

00:13:13.220 in the 2021 election.

00:13:15.220 But a little backward-looking

00:13:17.160 into 2021

00:13:18.460 is, I think, important here

00:13:19.720 because Aaron O'Toole

00:13:20.580 has finally surrendered

00:13:22.500 his seat in Parliament.

00:13:23.820 I say finally,

00:13:24.600 not like I'm glad to see him go,

00:13:26.500 but just because he announced

00:13:28.020 it a little while ago,

00:13:28.800 and now he's formally ended this.

00:13:31.320 And he has given his farewell speech

00:13:33.140 in the House of Commons

00:13:33.880 and had some parting words

00:13:35.420 about conservatism

00:13:37.220 that he shared on CTV.

00:13:39.420 You know, the Conservatives

00:13:40.520 won the popular vote

00:13:41.420 in the last two elections.

00:13:42.820 It just wasn't efficient enough.

00:13:44.240 And Mr. Trudeau,

00:13:45.780 some of the polarization

00:13:46.580 is actually focusing

00:13:48.780 and over-delivering

00:13:49.840 your small cohort.

00:13:51.180 So he's now one,

00:13:52.520 two minority governments

00:13:53.620 with a smaller popular vote

00:13:55.640 and in some elections

00:13:57.340 being virtually shut out

00:13:58.620 in certain provinces

00:13:59.640 of the country.

00:14:00.780 So I think,

00:14:01.960 had the pandemic

00:14:02.820 not been a part

00:14:03.720 of the discussion,

00:14:04.900 I had a lot

00:14:05.620 of fiscal Conservatives

00:14:06.880 that wanted to see

00:14:08.300 the Conservatives

00:14:09.820 with a smart plan

00:14:10.920 on the environment.

00:14:11.520 a lot of business leaders,

00:14:13.600 for example,

00:14:14.060 or small business owners

00:14:15.060 that wanted to make sure

00:14:16.960 they lowered emissions

00:14:18.540 for their kids,

00:14:19.460 but were worried

00:14:20.520 about our competitiveness,

00:14:21.720 worried about trade relations,

00:14:23.580 thought Mr. Trudeau's ethics

00:14:24.660 were questionable.

00:14:25.420 So there's a bunch of voters

00:14:26.700 that want to see

00:14:28.360 the Conservatives

00:14:29.100 address all issues.

00:14:30.520 I think Pierre will do that.

00:14:32.340 So, Aaron O'Toole there,

00:14:34.780 I believe,

00:14:35.620 was characterized uncharitably

00:14:37.520 in this CTV tweet

00:14:38.880 that went around,

00:14:39.700 and I shared it myself

00:14:40.620 in which it says,

00:14:42.240 Aaron O'Toole tells

00:14:43.040 Vashti Capellos

00:14:43.840 he still believes

00:14:44.420 the Conservative Party

00:14:45.400 needs to moderate

00:14:46.220 if it's going to win

00:14:47.760 the next election.

00:14:48.840 He didn't use those words,

00:14:50.220 but he did make

00:14:51.240 that implication

00:14:51.980 when he talked about,

00:14:53.480 ooh, believing that

00:14:54.200 they needed a smart plan

00:14:55.440 on the environment.

00:14:56.120 So he is still actually

00:14:57.100 standing by

00:14:58.220 his decision

00:14:59.300 to introduce a carbon tax

00:15:00.560 despite it being

00:15:01.460 probably the most

00:15:03.240 singularly unpopular issue

00:15:05.640 within the Conservative base

00:15:07.660 because it angers

00:15:08.920 the red Tories even

00:15:10.720 who, like,

00:15:11.280 the only thing

00:15:12.120 you can kind of get them on

00:15:13.200 is fiscal Conservatives.

00:15:14.300 It angers the blue Tories.

00:15:15.500 It angers the social Conservatives

00:15:17.420 because, you know,

00:15:18.220 who likes a carbon tax

00:15:19.180 regardless of anything else?

00:15:21.300 So Aaron O'Toole

00:15:22.160 is still standing by that

00:15:24.360 and still kind of claiming

00:15:26.020 that, well, you know,

00:15:26.840 the Conservatives

00:15:27.340 will win the election

00:15:27.940 if they had a plan

00:15:28.540 on the environment.

00:15:29.120 Well, you did that.

00:15:30.320 You did that.

00:15:30.980 We listened.

00:15:31.640 And I sort of cheekily said

00:15:33.200 in response to the tweet here

00:15:35.280 that, oh,

00:15:36.520 if only we had some way

00:15:37.920 of knowing what would happen

00:15:39.080 if Aaron O'Toole's vision

00:15:40.180 of the Conservative party

00:15:41.440 were to stand in an election.

00:15:43.280 Hint, hint, we do.

00:15:44.840 It was that vision

00:15:45.900 that tried to give everything

00:15:47.600 to win Quebec

00:15:48.160 and failed to do so,

00:15:49.300 that tried to give everything

00:15:50.040 to win the GTA

00:15:50.960 and failed to do so,

00:15:52.460 that tried to expand the base

00:15:53.800 by moving ever closer

00:15:55.400 to the centre

00:15:56.080 and even the left

00:15:57.320 and it did not work.

00:15:58.820 And I said in an interview

00:16:00.120 recently,

00:16:01.300 I can't even remember

00:16:01.800 who I was talking to,

00:16:02.820 that, well,

00:16:04.200 I didn't love

00:16:05.540 how the Conservative party

00:16:07.040 went in that last election.

00:16:09.080 I thought it was

00:16:09.900 tremendously important

00:16:11.100 that they did

00:16:11.800 because now we have

00:16:12.940 the test case.

00:16:13.840 Now we have

00:16:14.480 the definitive proof

00:16:15.760 of what happens

00:16:16.540 if the Red Tory fantasy

00:16:18.500 and the Red Tory delusion

00:16:20.220 is put in motion.

00:16:22.120 You get a campaign

00:16:22.940 that looks exactly

00:16:23.700 like the one

00:16:24.340 the Conservatives ran

00:16:25.480 in 2021

00:16:26.100 and you get a loss

00:16:27.440 that looks exactly

00:16:28.380 like the Conservative

00:16:29.560 loss in 2021.

00:16:30.840 And don't give me the,

00:16:31.540 oh, but they won

00:16:32.060 the popular vote

00:16:32.780 because that and five bucks

00:16:34.500 doesn't even get you

00:16:35.280 a latte at Starbucks.

00:16:36.760 I had to like correct

00:16:37.400 the metaphor

00:16:38.000 midway through

00:16:39.040 because I don't actually

00:16:39.940 know what a latte

00:16:41.040 costs at Starbucks now,

00:16:42.080 but I'm assuming

00:16:42.620 it's more than $5

00:16:43.340 because, you know,

00:16:44.220 inflation kills

00:16:45.340 anything and everything.

00:16:47.060 That does it for us

00:16:48.440 for now.

00:16:49.640 I want to take

00:16:50.340 a quick break.

00:16:50.960 We'll be back

00:16:51.400 talking about

00:16:52.120 the Asian Infrastructure

00:16:53.280 Investment Bank

00:16:54.000 with the great

00:16:55.040 Joe Oliver.

00:16:55.880 Stay with me.

00:16:56.440 You're tuned in

00:17:00.820 to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:17:06.760 Welcome back

00:17:07.640 to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:17:09.220 Last week,

00:17:09.860 there was a bit

00:17:10.960 of a geopolitical

00:17:12.240 firestorm of sorts

00:17:13.840 that started

00:17:14.620 with the resignation

00:17:16.160 of a Canadian gentleman

00:17:17.840 by the name

00:17:18.360 of Bob Picard

00:17:19.540 from the AIIB.

00:17:21.700 Now, this is the

00:17:22.440 Asian Infrastructure

00:17:24.060 Investment Bank,

00:17:25.220 a Beijing-based bank

00:17:27.140 that's been around

00:17:27.740 for seven years or so.

00:17:29.780 And it might not

00:17:30.520 surprise you

00:17:31.180 if you followed

00:17:31.940 anything to do

00:17:32.800 with this institution

00:17:33.800 in the past

00:17:34.400 to hear what Bob said

00:17:35.760 in his parting words

00:17:37.940 after resigning.

00:17:39.100 He tweeted

00:17:39.600 that he has tendered

00:17:41.220 his resignation

00:17:41.760 as a patriotic Canadian.

00:17:44.060 This was my only course.

00:17:46.160 The bank is dominated

00:17:47.340 by Communist Party members

00:17:48.880 and also has

00:17:49.700 one of the most

00:17:50.300 toxic cultures imaginable.

00:17:52.540 I don't believe

00:17:53.320 that my country's interests

00:17:54.720 are served

00:17:55.600 by its AIIB membership.

00:17:58.120 He later added to that

00:17:59.320 by saying that

00:18:00.100 the Communist Party

00:18:01.060 hacks hold the cards 1.00

00:18:02.280 at the bank. 0.94

00:18:03.460 They deal with

00:18:04.200 some board members 1.00

00:18:05.020 as useful idiots. 1.00

00:18:07.000 He believes that Canada 1.00

00:18:07.980 should not be a member

00:18:09.080 of this PRC,

00:18:10.820 that's the People's

00:18:11.700 Republic of China,

00:18:13.280 instrument.

00:18:13.860 The reality of power

00:18:15.080 in the bank

00:18:15.540 is that it's CCP

00:18:16.600 from start to finish.

00:18:18.060 Now, he's been there

00:18:18.800 for about a year.

00:18:20.220 There are other

00:18:20.780 supposedly esteemed individuals,

00:18:22.900 former Treasury secretaries,

00:18:23.720 secretaries that sit

00:18:24.800 in this organization.

00:18:26.640 But now Canada

00:18:27.420 has, in light of this,

00:18:29.460 decided to put a freeze

00:18:31.060 on its contributions

00:18:32.640 to the AIIB

00:18:33.560 and have a review,

00:18:34.780 which the bank,

00:18:35.420 of course, says

00:18:36.020 it has nothing to hide.

00:18:37.360 There's nothing to see here.

00:18:38.560 We'll totally cooperate.

00:18:39.820 You won't find any

00:18:40.680 Chinese Communist 0.72

00:18:42.240 institutional officials

00:18:43.620 in this.

00:18:44.660 I'm less convinced.

00:18:45.860 I want to talk to

00:18:46.760 former Finance Minister

00:18:48.420 Joe Oliver about this.

00:18:49.860 Now, obviously,

00:18:50.900 this was not an institution

00:18:53.320 that existed

00:18:54.140 in the time

00:18:55.380 that you were in government

00:18:56.300 and that Stephen Harper

00:18:57.160 was there.

00:18:57.720 It came in 2016.

00:18:59.320 But I'm guessing for you,

00:19:01.140 this is not something

00:19:02.240 that is all that surprising

00:19:03.740 to see these allegations.

00:19:05.960 Well, no, not really,

00:19:07.200 because we knew,

00:19:08.120 of course,

00:19:08.700 the Asian Infrastructure

00:19:11.980 Investment Bank

00:19:12.840 would be dominated

00:19:14.120 by the Chinese.

00:19:15.280 we had an opportunity

00:19:17.680 to join in 2015

00:19:19.720 when I was

00:19:20.500 Minister of Finance

00:19:21.500 and we declined.

00:19:23.860 And I looked at the opportunity,

00:19:27.300 let's call it that,

00:19:28.560 and concluded that really

00:19:30.560 there was no interest

00:19:32.500 in Canada joining.

00:19:34.520 There was quite

00:19:35.500 a significant cost.

00:19:36.920 It wasn't precisely defined,

00:19:38.540 but it looked like

00:19:39.420 it was going to be

00:19:39.980 in the hundreds

00:19:40.420 of millions of dollars.

00:19:41.880 And I didn't really

00:19:43.040 see an upside.

00:19:44.480 I mean, for one thing,

00:19:46.420 our big pension funds

00:19:48.440 would, of course,

00:19:49.100 be welcome

00:19:50.060 to participate

00:19:51.500 in an infrastructure project

00:19:53.100 if they wanted to,

00:19:54.020 because they had

00:19:54.860 billions of dollars

00:19:56.480 to invest.

00:19:58.020 And as far as

00:19:59.000 Canadian construction companies

00:20:01.560 and others

00:20:02.000 who might be involved

00:20:03.220 on a sort of

00:20:05.080 a pay-to-play

00:20:06.700 kind of basis,

00:20:08.840 the history

00:20:09.960 was not very good

00:20:11.720 in terms of

00:20:12.780 Canada's ability

00:20:13.920 opportunity to participate.

00:20:14.980 We, in fact,

00:20:16.340 participated

00:20:16.920 in the previous

00:20:17.680 10 years

00:20:18.400 in about 1%

00:20:20.660 of total projects.

00:20:22.880 So I really didn't

00:20:23.820 see the upside

00:20:25.060 other than a real

00:20:26.100 kind of a feel-good

00:20:28.020 photo op,

00:20:29.380 which, in fact,

00:20:30.160 happened three years later

00:20:31.880 when then-finance minister

00:20:34.520 Bill Morneau

00:20:35.620 announced to the public

00:20:36.700 that Canada,

00:20:37.720 among great fanfare,

00:20:39.160 and the prime minister

00:20:39.980 was involved

00:20:40.640 in the Photoshop

00:20:41.780 as well,

00:20:42.480 obviously,

00:20:43.160 because they had

00:20:44.440 a very friendly attitude

00:20:47.340 to China

00:20:48.840 that they were going

00:20:50.240 to join.

00:20:51.140 And they never really

00:20:51.940 discussed what the cost

00:20:53.700 would be.

00:20:54.440 If you look

00:20:55.180 at the annual report

00:20:57.860 of the AIIB,

00:20:59.080 you see that Canada

00:21:00.220 has a subscription

00:21:01.420 of close to a billion dollars.

00:21:04.520 But that doesn't mean

00:21:05.480 we paid that full amount in,

00:21:07.800 but we've been paying,

00:21:08.980 I gather,

00:21:09.760 about $40 million a year.

00:21:11.140 We're moving towards

00:21:12.320 $200 million,

00:21:14.260 which isn't a pocket change,

00:21:16.540 in my opinion.

00:21:18.200 And as far as I can determine,

00:21:20.740 we've got precisely

00:21:22.340 nothing out of it.

00:21:23.980 In the meantime,

00:21:24.920 of course,

00:21:25.300 our relationship

00:21:26.060 with China

00:21:26.780 has deteriorated

00:21:28.260 for a variety of reasons

00:21:30.440 that Canadians

00:21:31.160 are well aware of.

00:21:32.580 Just going back to 2015 there,

00:21:35.740 when you and the Canadian government

00:21:37.480 decided not to get involved

00:21:39.280 in this,

00:21:39.800 was that purely

00:21:40.840 a financial decision

00:21:42.660 or was there a concern

00:21:43.820 that this would become

00:21:44.780 an instrument

00:21:45.460 of the Chinese Politburo?

00:21:48.040 Well,

00:21:48.560 we assumed that,

00:21:50.120 of course,

00:21:50.560 it would be

00:21:51.460 because everything major

00:21:53.640 that China is involved

00:21:55.800 in commercially

00:21:56.560 has control

00:21:58.460 by the party.

00:22:00.240 And we knew that

00:22:01.480 at the time,

00:22:02.100 perhaps that wasn't

00:22:03.040 widely understood,

00:22:04.180 but it was pretty obvious.

00:22:08.000 And as I recall,

00:22:09.820 the Chinese didn't put pressure 1.00

00:22:13.040 on us to join.

00:22:14.520 They encouraged us to,

00:22:16.320 but I didn't feel

00:22:17.920 any muscle in that regard.

00:22:20.140 And on the other side of it,

00:22:21.960 the Americans,

00:22:23.120 who were quite critical

00:22:24.420 of the British joining the AIIB,

00:22:27.760 explicitly told us,

00:22:30.760 Jack Lew,

00:22:31.660 who was the Secretary

00:22:32.600 of Treasury at the time,

00:22:34.260 told me

00:22:35.080 that he wasn't really

00:22:36.500 asking us not to join,

00:22:39.120 but he just wanted us

00:22:40.700 to be aware

00:22:41.320 that there were

00:22:41.980 concerns on their part

00:22:44.500 in terms of governance,

00:22:46.500 procurement,

00:22:47.760 corruption,

00:22:48.900 even environmental issues

00:22:51.080 about the types of projects

00:22:52.600 they were involved in.

00:22:54.220 Now they,

00:22:55.940 of course,

00:22:56.400 the Americans,

00:22:57.200 viewed the AIIB

00:22:58.740 as a competitive institution

00:23:00.840 to the World Bank

00:23:03.380 and other institutions

00:23:05.640 that they were supportive of.

00:23:07.220 So they were clearly

00:23:08.120 unhappy with that development.

00:23:11.580 But as it turned out,

00:23:12.940 Japan was the only other 1.00

00:23:15.180 G7 country 1.00

00:23:17.060 aside from Canada

00:23:18.680 that didn't join.

00:23:19.440 Now,

00:23:21.200 the one thing

00:23:21.860 that I should say

00:23:23.120 just for those

00:23:23.880 who don't follow this,

00:23:25.060 China is launching

00:23:26.400 and has been

00:23:27.440 for several years

00:23:28.320 this incredibly costly

00:23:30.280 Belt and Road Initiative

00:23:31.420 where they're basically,

00:23:32.860 I think,

00:23:33.380 entrapping a lot

00:23:34.220 of developing countries.

00:23:35.360 They're building,

00:23:36.980 you know,

00:23:37.160 these brand new ship ports

00:23:38.460 and airports

00:23:39.020 in countries

00:23:40.080 that never could have

00:23:41.000 afforded these things

00:23:42.420 on their own

00:23:43.020 without a lot of help.

00:23:44.000 And a lot of that

00:23:44.900 is being funneled

00:23:46.080 directly through the AIIB.

00:23:47.800 So, I mean,

00:23:48.460 this is really a part

00:23:49.300 of this, you know,

00:23:50.420 great Chinese economic

00:23:51.740 conquest, this institution.

00:23:54.100 Yeah, well,

00:23:54.340 there's no question.

00:23:55.320 It's all coordinated

00:23:56.880 with a view

00:23:58.140 to extending

00:24:00.260 China's reach 0.99

00:24:02.840 internationally

00:24:04.120 and have,

00:24:05.660 first,

00:24:06.860 have countries

00:24:07.660 and institutions

00:24:09.180 recognize that Canada,

00:24:11.360 that China 0.93

00:24:12.040 has the second largest

00:24:13.240 GDP

00:24:14.640 and that it,

00:24:16.600 you know,

00:24:17.320 it's very assertive

00:24:18.540 and it's demanding

00:24:19.560 respect

00:24:20.180 and more than that,

00:24:21.220 dominance

00:24:22.620 in the South China Sea

00:24:24.800 and elsewhere.

00:24:25.500 And this is,

00:24:26.260 they're using

00:24:26.820 their financial muscle

00:24:28.180 to increase

00:24:30.040 their influence

00:24:31.700 around the world,

00:24:32.940 in particular

00:24:33.540 with less developed

00:24:36.280 countries

00:24:36.760 where, you know,

00:24:37.620 as you implied,

00:24:38.800 they're using

00:24:40.160 their financial instruments

00:24:42.780 to get into projects

00:24:45.240 that they wouldn't

00:24:45.780 necessarily be welcome in.

00:24:47.520 But if these projects

00:24:50.300 aren't able

00:24:51.960 to return

00:24:52.740 the interest rate

00:24:54.480 that they're owed

00:24:55.040 to the Chinese government,

00:24:57.240 then, of course,

00:24:58.400 China can seize the assets

00:25:00.500 and get control

00:25:01.920 of ports

00:25:02.520 and airports

00:25:03.020 and other

00:25:04.280 major infrastructure

00:25:05.800 projects

00:25:06.560 that

00:25:07.000 the country

00:25:09.960 or the borrower

00:25:10.740 wouldn't otherwise

00:25:12.060 sell to them.

00:25:13.580 You looked at the dollars

00:25:14.940 and cents in 2015

00:25:16.280 as we were talking

00:25:17.000 about a moment ago

00:25:17.660 and you said

00:25:18.040 you just don't see

00:25:18.840 the economic benefit

00:25:20.480 here among other issues.

00:25:22.300 How did that change?

00:25:23.700 I mean, obviously

00:25:24.160 with the new government

00:25:24.980 comes new priorities,

00:25:26.260 but when the Liberals

00:25:27.160 came in and joined this,

00:25:29.000 how did they make

00:25:29.880 that value proposition?

00:25:31.360 Because the numbers

00:25:32.100 probably hadn't changed

00:25:33.540 all that much

00:25:34.140 between when Canada

00:25:35.600 decided not to join

00:25:36.980 and when Canada

00:25:37.780 decided eventually to join.

00:25:40.060 No, I don't think

00:25:41.080 the numbers changed at all.

00:25:42.620 And in fact,

00:25:43.480 the subsequent history

00:25:44.660 proves definitively

00:25:46.740 that we were right,

00:25:48.860 that there was nothing

00:25:49.620 in it for us.

00:25:51.520 But if I may be permitted

00:25:53.900 a partisan comment,

00:25:55.300 the Liberals don't seem

00:25:57.980 to put high priority

00:26:00.020 on fiscal prudence

00:26:02.960 and they weren't

00:26:05.300 particularly worried

00:26:06.220 about the cost.

00:26:08.080 Maybe they viewed it

00:26:09.120 as a development exercise.

00:26:11.300 I think it was more

00:26:12.660 wanting to be in the room

00:26:15.800 with the big boys

00:26:16.680 and cozying up to China,

00:26:19.540 which they were trying to do.

00:26:23.340 And of course,

00:26:24.080 we know the prime minister's

00:26:26.100 personal history

00:26:26.920 and his father's history

00:26:28.000 in this regard.

00:26:29.920 So I don't think

00:26:30.720 they ever attempted

00:26:31.640 to justify it

00:26:34.760 on a cost-benefit perspective

00:26:36.420 for they were looking

00:26:37.600 at the so-called bigger picture

00:26:39.880 of participating

00:26:41.720 in another multilateral

00:26:43.180 organization

00:26:44.060 and being a big boy

00:26:47.060 in international

00:26:47.860 infrastructure development.

00:26:50.040 But let me just,

00:26:51.560 in that regard,

00:26:52.420 I think there's another

00:26:53.200 important point to make

00:26:54.440 and that is that

00:26:56.300 our willingness

00:26:58.480 to put hundreds of millions

00:27:00.780 into the AIIB

00:27:02.500 could have been better spent

00:27:04.860 if, in fact,

00:27:05.800 we felt compelled

00:27:08.080 to spend money

00:27:08.880 in respect

00:27:10.240 to domestic infrastructure

00:27:12.640 in our own country,

00:27:14.540 which is sorely needed

00:27:16.660 and would help

00:27:17.820 with improving

00:27:20.660 our productivity,

00:27:22.840 which is at a very poor level.

00:27:25.220 In fact,

00:27:25.860 the OECD said

00:27:27.120 that Canada

00:27:28.460 is going to have

00:27:29.820 a poor record

00:27:30.780 of GDP

00:27:31.720 per capita growth

00:27:33.660 of any other wealthy country

00:27:35.320 in the entire world.

00:27:36.680 Well, infrastructure

00:27:37.380 is part of that problem.

00:27:39.320 So, you know,

00:27:40.020 that money

00:27:40.620 could better be spent

00:27:43.160 in Canada.

00:27:43.900 Now, you know,

00:27:46.220 the money is not available,

00:27:49.400 of course.

00:27:49.780 It wasn't available.

00:27:50.660 So it represents

00:27:52.320 additional borrowing

00:27:54.160 by the government

00:27:56.120 of Canada.

00:27:57.120 And needless to say,

00:27:58.540 we borrowed a lot.

00:27:59.940 Our debt

00:28:00.780 is approaching

00:28:01.500 1.2 trillion.

00:28:03.240 And the interest

00:28:04.960 on the debt

00:28:05.900 will be,

00:28:07.320 I think it's going

00:28:08.100 to be up to

00:28:08.740 $50 billion a year

00:28:10.380 by 2027.

00:28:12.220 And I think

00:28:13.400 it's approximately

00:28:14.500 $45 billion.

00:28:16.700 It's over

00:28:17.960 $4,000 a year

00:28:20.100 for a family of four.

00:28:21.760 So adding more debt

00:28:23.180 is not

00:28:25.480 an attractive proposition.

00:28:27.960 And it wasn't

00:28:28.880 for us then.

00:28:30.880 Yeah,

00:28:31.440 and you're right

00:28:32.200 that there has,

00:28:33.400 there are times

00:28:34.360 when maybe

00:28:34.860 you can justify

00:28:35.740 the elective spending.

00:28:38.640 And we have not been

00:28:39.900 in one of those periods

00:28:41.000 for the last few years,

00:28:42.060 certainly.

00:28:42.380 And I guess

00:28:43.500 I'll ask about this

00:28:44.600 in the broader context

00:28:45.860 of Canada's relations

00:28:47.100 with China

00:28:47.660 because I know

00:28:48.180 that the Conservative

00:28:48.960 government

00:28:49.440 has been criticized

00:28:51.360 for the free trade

00:28:53.140 agreement with China

00:28:54.100 that Stephen Harper

00:28:55.120 promoted.

00:28:55.760 I think that was 2014.

00:28:57.320 No, there was no

00:28:59.080 free trade.

00:29:00.080 Well, not,

00:29:00.680 that's how it's been

00:29:02.160 criticized.

00:29:03.560 But the FIPA

00:29:04.380 is what I'm referring to.

00:29:05.320 Yeah, but no,

00:29:06.660 this is an important point.

00:29:07.700 There's trade.

00:29:08.080 Okay, no,

00:29:08.440 and that's fair.

00:29:09.100 And I was imprecise

00:29:10.820 as I set up the premise.

00:29:11.900 So I'll let you characterize it.

00:29:13.180 But I'll just ask,

00:29:14.200 as you characterize that,

00:29:15.760 do you have any regrets

00:29:16.700 about that effort

00:29:18.100 that the Conservatives

00:29:19.620 made to really try

00:29:20.800 to cement these ties

00:29:22.340 with China?

00:29:22.860 No, we've got to

00:29:25.180 set the record straight there.

00:29:26.960 We were in favor

00:29:28.320 of trade with China

00:29:30.580 if it advanced

00:29:32.280 our economic interests.

00:29:33.940 I mean, after all,

00:29:35.040 given its size,

00:29:36.620 and everybody's talking

00:29:37.560 about kind of reducing

00:29:38.960 our dependency

00:29:40.100 on trade

00:29:40.680 with the United States,

00:29:41.840 which represents 75%

00:29:44.160 of our trade,

00:29:45.800 you don't turn your back

00:29:47.800 on a huge market.

00:29:49.440 But I certainly

00:29:50.860 wasn't in favor

00:29:51.800 and neither was

00:29:52.660 the Prime Minister,

00:29:53.620 which is more important,

00:29:54.800 in favor of a free trade

00:29:56.540 agreement with China

00:29:57.580 at that time

00:29:58.980 or at any time since.

00:30:02.280 It just didn't make sense.

00:30:04.240 Now, I personally...

00:30:06.020 But it was liberalizing

00:30:07.360 trade with China.

00:30:08.660 Yeah, but look,

00:30:09.620 I went to China many times

00:30:11.600 and I saw

00:30:14.260 a strategic complementarity

00:30:17.200 between Canada and China

00:30:20.080 in this respect.

00:30:21.180 We needed to diversify

00:30:24.180 the markets

00:30:25.060 for our oil and gas

00:30:27.060 and they needed

00:30:28.660 to diversify

00:30:29.600 their sources of supply.

00:30:32.100 Being able to sell

00:30:33.800 more oil and gas

00:30:35.800 or any oil and gas

00:30:37.260 to China

00:30:38.240 would have had

00:30:39.580 enormous beneficial

00:30:40.720 impact on Canada

00:30:42.760 because of the hundreds

00:30:43.640 of billions of dollars

00:30:44.600 we could have earned.

00:30:45.440 Also, if we sold gas,

00:30:48.940 we would have been able

00:30:50.280 to reduce net global emissions

00:30:52.360 because that gas

00:30:53.920 would be substituting

00:30:54.740 for much higher

00:30:55.520 emitting coal.

00:30:57.340 So there was an environmental

00:30:58.960 advantage to that as well.

00:31:02.220 And I had an opportunity

00:31:03.880 once to actually discuss

00:31:05.980 that issue

00:31:06.540 with President Xi Jinping.

00:31:08.100 Interestingly,

00:31:10.240 when the former Governor General

00:31:12.540 David Johnson

00:31:13.720 was in Beijing

00:31:14.960 and he had arranged

00:31:17.240 a meeting

00:31:18.180 with the President

00:31:19.240 and Xi Jinping agreed.

00:31:22.160 Now,

00:31:23.020 that wasn't going

00:31:24.420 to change the world,

00:31:25.520 but if anything,

00:31:26.640 it might have somewhat

00:31:28.320 reduced the asymmetry

00:31:30.140 between our two countries.

00:31:32.140 but it never would have

00:31:33.660 reduced our

00:31:35.400 or increased

00:31:36.220 our dependency on them

00:31:37.540 because, you know,

00:31:38.640 if you could,

00:31:39.280 the tragedy was,

00:31:40.340 of course,

00:31:40.580 we couldn't deliver.

00:31:41.880 But if we could have delivered,

00:31:43.620 we could have delivered

00:31:44.420 to anyone in the world.

00:31:46.860 And, you know,

00:31:48.640 it's a terrible economic cost

00:31:51.780 that that's been,

00:31:53.380 that hasn't happened.

00:31:54.680 And I think we all know why.

00:31:57.460 But it would have been,

00:31:59.640 you know,

00:31:59.860 that particular trade

00:32:01.200 would have been advantageous

00:32:02.640 to Canada

00:32:03.800 and in Canada's

00:32:05.440 national interest.

00:32:07.740 And that last part

00:32:09.120 is key

00:32:09.740 when we're talking about that

00:32:10.840 and certainly the AIIB.

00:32:13.020 Former Finance Minister

00:32:14.140 Joe Oliver,

00:32:14.840 always a pleasure, Joe.

00:32:15.700 Thanks for coming on.

00:32:17.160 Great to have me.

00:32:18.580 That was Joe Oliver,

00:32:20.420 former Minister of Finance

00:32:22.040 in Canada.

00:32:22.540 As soon as the word

00:32:23.820 left my mouth,

00:32:25.060 I knew that I had stepped in it

00:32:26.340 because it wasn't

00:32:26.800 a free trade deal.

00:32:27.640 I meant to say,

00:32:28.380 you know,

00:32:28.720 freeing the trade,

00:32:29.760 liberalizing,

00:32:30.540 making it a bit easier.

00:32:31.200 But I went for the shorthand

00:32:33.400 and Joe Oliver rightly

00:32:34.740 called me on it.

00:32:35.600 But nevertheless,

00:32:36.240 very insightful guy.

00:32:37.360 We'll have to have him back

00:32:38.320 on more often.

00:32:39.660 That does it for us

00:32:40.900 for today.

00:32:41.640 Remember,

00:32:42.080 special edition

00:32:42.620 of The Andrew Lawton Show

00:32:43.480 tomorrow,

00:32:44.580 a full-length sit-down

00:32:46.080 with Tamara Leach.

00:32:47.440 That's all coming up

00:32:48.500 in just 23 hours

00:32:50.460 here on The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:32:51.980 Thank you,

00:32:52.480 God bless,

00:32:53.040 and good day to you all.

00:32:54.220 Thanks for listening

00:32:54.980 to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:32:56.680 Support the program

00:32:57.500 by donating to True North

00:32:58.740 at www.tnc.news.

00:33:03.160 the Andrew Lawton Show.

00:33:09.560 Thank you.

00:33:10.600 Thanks for listening.

Juno News - June 20, 2023

By-elections deliver caution for Conservatives and bad news for PPC

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