Juno News - June 20, 2023


By-elections deliver caution for Conservatives and bad news for PPC


Episode Stats

Length

33 minutes

Words per Minute

162.18414

Word Count

5,383

Sentence Count

316

Hate Speech Sentences

8


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.
00:00:05.480 This is the Andrew Lawton Show, brought to you by True North.
00:00:12.800 Hello and welcome to you all.
00:00:15.500 This is another edition of Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show,
00:00:19.400 the Andrew Lawton Show, here on True North on this Tuesday, June 21st.
00:00:23.880 I hope you're having a wonderful day.
00:00:25.980 Is it the first day of summer today?
00:00:27.960 I always forget. It's in and around now.
00:00:29.560 The 20th or the... No, it's the 20th.
00:00:31.980 What am I... I've got the day wrong, so just don't even listen to me at all.
00:00:35.520 It's June 20th. It still could be the start of summer. I don't know.
00:00:38.920 The weather is nice where I am, but I just saw that Jasper had like a dumping of snow the other day,
00:00:44.600 which I guess is par for the course if you live in that part of Alberta.
00:00:47.380 But that is the one thing. I love everything about Alberta.
00:00:50.500 I would live in Alberta in a heartbeat. I used to work in Alberta.
00:00:53.640 That's the one thing that I don't necessarily get on board with.
00:00:57.120 But it's the whole snow in June.
00:00:59.340 So if we could like global warming ourself out of that problem,
00:01:02.000 it would be the absolutely perfect province.
00:01:04.600 But nevertheless, we're not here to talk about the weather, at least not always.
00:01:09.640 I do want to talk in a little bit with former Finance Minister Joe Oliver about this kerfuffle.
00:01:16.140 It's a little bit more than a kerfuffle, perhaps a din and a do. I don't know.
00:01:20.160 This controversy involving the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,
00:01:24.460 a Canadian comms guy on that bank, resigned last week,
00:01:28.980 triggering a whole withdrawal of Canada, or at least a temporary freezing of Canada
00:01:35.180 and its involvement in this Beijing-headquartered bank,
00:01:39.700 which has long been criticized as being a financial tool of the Chinese Politburo.
00:01:43.700 And now, finally, it seems Canada has decided to recognize this.
00:01:47.500 So we'll talk to Joe Oliver about that very shortly in the program.
00:01:51.360 I want to begin by doing something which is in some ways against my better judgment,
00:01:55.920 but I still feel is important here.
00:01:57.740 I don't like the ins and outs.
00:01:59.040 I never cover polls on this show,
00:02:01.320 because I find polls to be just the utterly uninteresting thing
00:02:04.580 that you can talk about in politics that are also pretty inconsequential.
00:02:08.040 I mean, sometimes you may get a peripheral insight about politics from a poll,
00:02:12.380 but they tell you nothing, and even though it's an overused slogan,
00:02:16.140 the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, is kind of true.
00:02:19.820 So yesterday, we did have an Election Day poll.
00:02:23.400 Four, to be specific, and four ridings across the country.
00:02:26.380 One of them in Ontario, not far from me.
00:02:28.640 Oxford, one of them, well, two of them actually in Manitoba.
00:02:31.800 One is Portage-Lisker, the other Winnipeg South Centre,
00:02:35.100 and then another in Montreal.
00:02:36.680 Now, the top-line news of this is that there is zero change whatsoever.
00:02:42.500 Any party who held the seat going into the by-election holds the seat now.
00:02:47.020 But that doesn't mean there isn't a little bit that maybe you should take away from a couple of the ridings.
00:02:52.980 In particular, the two that the Conservatives won, Portage-Lisker and Oxford.
00:02:57.840 Now, Oxford is a big...
00:03:00.200 Both of these ridings have been on my radar because I've covered them
00:03:04.060 and some of the fights within them on this show.
00:03:06.860 Oxford, just by way of catching you up,
00:03:09.880 was the riding in which the Conservatives did not allow Garrett Van Dorland,
00:03:15.240 a prominent social Conservative activist and organiser, to run.
00:03:18.940 Instead, they seemed to prefer Arpan Kanna.
00:03:22.780 And while they didn't appoint him, he was the winner of the nomination once Van Dorland was out of the way.
00:03:28.820 But this raised the ire of Dave McKenzie,
00:03:33.000 who had this riding for, I think, 17, 18 years.
00:03:37.480 He had the riding for quite a while.
00:03:39.240 And Dave McKenzie wanted his daughter to be the MP.
00:03:42.820 He wanted his daughter, Deb Tate, to be his successor.
00:03:45.580 She was running for the nomination.
00:03:47.460 And he was just all pissy and ended up endorsing the Liberals.
00:03:52.380 So you had the former Conservative MP knocking on doors with the Liberals,
00:03:56.740 knocking on doors, talking to Chrystia Freeland at the door.
00:03:59.700 You had Dave McKenzie running radio ads when I was driving around.
00:04:03.360 I live in London, which is not Woodstock or Oxford County.
00:04:06.760 And they were just blasting these ads into London as well.
00:04:10.980 And I was hearing, oh, I'm the former Conservative MP,
00:04:13.300 but I'm standing up for the Liberals, yada, yada, yada.
00:04:15.480 So it was a riding.
00:04:16.820 And there was one poll that came out last week or earlier this week, whatever it was.
00:04:21.200 And that poll had a dead tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
00:04:26.400 And I didn't believe it, but it was one to watch.
00:04:29.160 Anyway, the Conservatives still won the riding.
00:04:32.400 Arpan Canna, who I actually worked with in Ottawa many, many years ago,
00:04:36.220 ended up winning the riding with 43%.
00:04:38.900 He had about, what is it?
00:04:40.780 I don't know, 26, 2700 vote lead over the Liberals,
00:04:45.380 which is, again, a win is a win.
00:04:47.980 And I don't want to start getting into this whole,
00:04:50.860 like, well, maybe a win is a loss and maybe a loss is a win
00:04:53.620 and maybe a win is a win, but it's kind of a loss,
00:04:56.000 like all that sort of stuff.
00:04:56.880 Because, yeah, all you need to win is one more vote than the other guy
00:05:00.180 in elections or the other gal, so to speak.
00:05:02.800 But the one thing I will say is worth noting here
00:05:06.220 is that this is not the best showing for the Conservatives.
00:05:09.840 And the 2021 election, Dave McKenzie had 47%.
00:05:14.480 The Liberals had 20%.
00:05:16.120 The 2019 election, Dave McKenzie had 48%.
00:05:19.520 The NDP actually came second with 20%, 48 to 20.
00:05:25.360 And in 2015, again, Dave McKenzie, 45,
00:05:28.800 and the Liberals in second place at 32%.
00:05:32.460 So this is a commanding result for the Liberals,
00:05:36.200 even if it is still a loss.
00:05:37.540 And do we take from that that Dave McKenzie was just so eager
00:05:41.200 to support the Liberals that a bunch of Conservatives voted Liberal?
00:05:46.260 Maybe, maybe not.
00:05:47.320 You never know.
00:05:48.240 But I do think that there might be a bit of a caution in this
00:05:51.820 to the Conservative Party, which is that when you attract
00:05:54.860 the wrong kind of attention to a riding,
00:05:57.380 sometimes these results are going to happen.
00:05:59.280 And I thought Garrett Van Dorland would have made a good candidate.
00:06:03.000 I have nothing against Arpan Canna.
00:06:04.560 I think he was a fine candidate.
00:06:05.960 And I know from having been a candidate who was appointed in the past,
00:06:10.100 I've talked about this, my own experience in 2018,
00:06:12.900 it is tremendously unfair to everyone,
00:06:15.120 including the person who is the appointed candidate.
00:06:17.780 Now, again, Arpan was not appointed.
00:06:19.740 So that's not the issue.
00:06:20.620 But I'm saying that when the party starts mucking around in nominations
00:06:24.500 and deciding who's running and who's not,
00:06:27.160 beyond really brazen disqualifying things,
00:06:30.860 the person who's the beneficiary of this,
00:06:33.140 either directly or indirectly, all of a sudden has an albatross
00:06:36.520 that they have to carry.
00:06:37.820 And so this is, again, a caution for the Conservative Party of Canada in that.
00:06:42.740 But Portage-Lisker, let's talk about that,
00:06:44.760 because this was the one that I ended up having to wade into last week
00:06:47.740 when Maxime Bernier decided that Andrew Lawton and True North
00:06:51.800 were big old sellouts and all that.
00:06:53.800 And I don't want to rehash the whole WEF Portage-Lisker controversy.
00:06:58.660 You can listen to last week's shows if you want to get caught up on that.
00:07:02.780 But the big question here was,
00:07:05.400 is the PPC alive or is the PPC dead?
00:07:09.660 That was the question heading into this,
00:07:12.480 because in the 2021 election,
00:07:15.460 the People's Party of Canada had its strongest showing nationally in this riding.
00:07:20.360 And in 2021, Maxime Bernier wasn't the candidate,
00:07:23.120 but the PPC got 21.58%,
00:07:26.860 which was a significant dent to Candace Bergen,
00:07:31.240 the Conservative candidate,
00:07:32.420 who is used to like pulling in 70%,
00:07:34.900 like she did in 2019,
00:07:36.460 but in 2021 got 52%.
00:07:39.060 Now, again, you're still winning with more than half of the voters,
00:07:42.440 but this signaled a pretty big issue for the Conservatives
00:07:46.400 if the PPC numbers kept up.
00:07:48.720 So if you do the big drum roll here,
00:07:50.840 the PPC ended up pulling in 17.2% yesterday.
00:07:55.680 Now, that is with Maxime Bernier,
00:07:57.280 the leader of the party,
00:07:58.580 standing as the candidate.
00:07:59.800 That is with an aggressive campaign,
00:08:02.280 a well-known guy.
00:08:03.880 And it is, again,
00:08:05.680 I think a bit of a caution.
00:08:07.260 Now, look,
00:08:07.840 if the PPC were to pull in 17.2% nationally,
00:08:11.900 it would be a tremendous achievement.
00:08:13.940 But in the riding that they were trumpeting as their strongest,
00:08:17.300 it is not exactly great.
00:08:20.200 And by the way,
00:08:20.900 I talked to Maxime Bernier about this
00:08:22.500 in my first interview with him about this race,
00:08:24.360 and I gave him a bit of an out.
00:08:25.760 I said,
00:08:26.100 what to you is a win?
00:08:28.180 This was that clip.
00:08:30.200 So we were discussing earlier,
00:08:31.600 Maxime,
00:08:32.060 the PPC did very well in Portage-Lisker
00:08:34.360 relative to everywhere else in the country.
00:08:36.720 It was the strongest riding.
00:08:38.020 And I know you obviously want to win,
00:08:40.160 but as far as the bigger picture here,
00:08:42.200 what do you consider a win
00:08:43.980 short of a victory on the ballot?
00:08:46.740 I mean,
00:08:46.920 do you feel that you need to get that 20% of the vote
00:08:51.320 to prove that the PPC is still the force it was in 2021?
00:08:56.380 I like your question, Andrew.
00:08:58.740 A win is a win.
00:09:00.240 So a win for me will be
00:09:02.460 to be the MP for people in Portage-Lisker.
00:09:06.360 And I'm here campaigning full-time for them.
00:09:09.380 My segal is full,
00:09:10.860 and I'm very pleased with that.
00:09:12.140 So for me,
00:09:13.080 a win is to be their MP the night of the election.
00:09:16.140 And I believe that it's doable.
00:09:18.120 We have a strong team,
00:09:19.640 and people understand
00:09:20.880 they have the opportunity
00:09:22.260 to send a message to Ottawa right now.
00:09:25.100 And you know,
00:09:25.580 it's not about spitting the vote.
00:09:27.860 That ridiculous argument is not valid.
00:09:32.100 We won't change the government.
00:09:33.740 The Trudeau government will be there after the election.
00:09:36.280 So it's safe for them to vote for the PPC,
00:09:39.480 to vote for me.
00:09:40.220 And actually,
00:09:41.440 I will be their insurance policy
00:09:43.660 that Poitier,
00:09:45.100 if he has the courage to be a conservative,
00:09:49.140 I will support him.
00:09:51.200 But I will bring that debate in Ottawa,
00:09:53.420 and I will support Poitier
00:09:54.980 when or if he is a real conservative
00:09:57.880 with real conservative family values.
00:10:00.560 So it's a win-win for people in this writing,
00:10:03.220 and they understand that.
00:10:04.300 And that's why my answer to your question is,
00:10:07.400 a win is a win.
00:10:08.440 Well, as you heard there,
00:10:09.640 his answer was pretty clear.
00:10:10.920 A win is a win.
00:10:11.860 So in contrast,
00:10:12.780 this is a loss.
00:10:14.160 Now,
00:10:14.600 how the party is going to spin this
00:10:16.360 in the days and weeks to come,
00:10:18.080 I don't know.
00:10:19.140 But the big question was,
00:10:20.460 you know,
00:10:20.760 does Pierre Pauly have a PPC problem on his hands?
00:10:24.320 I don't think he does based on these results.
00:10:27.180 Now,
00:10:27.540 obviously,
00:10:28.080 the PPC could rebuild,
00:10:29.520 and they could have a great showing,
00:10:31.240 and maybe next election,
00:10:32.500 they'll find some other riding like Portage-Lisker
00:10:34.440 where they have some strangely uncharacteristic
00:10:37.820 and positive response.
00:10:39.480 And,
00:10:39.900 you know,
00:10:40.220 I know that because of this fight
00:10:42.020 that ended up emerging last week,
00:10:44.040 people think that I have it out for the PPC,
00:10:46.160 and that's actually in no way true.
00:10:48.380 And there have been many cases where I've said,
00:10:50.680 you know,
00:10:51.200 if the PPC were to be elected to something,
00:10:54.660 it would be a pretty significant accountability measure
00:10:58.820 for the Conservatives.
00:11:00.040 Because remember,
00:11:00.860 the PPC only exists as a protest party.
00:11:03.820 It is a party that was created
00:11:05.280 because in Bernier's eyes,
00:11:07.200 the Conservatives were morally and intellectually corrupt,
00:11:10.400 which means that under ideal circumstances,
00:11:12.960 the moral and intellectual corruption
00:11:14.720 that is purported to be
00:11:16.000 in the Conservative Party of Canada
00:11:17.780 would be fixed,
00:11:18.560 and everyone could be united again.
00:11:20.160 It was the Reform Party
00:11:21.520 that fixed the Progressive Conservative Party.
00:11:24.160 It was the Wild Rose Alliance
00:11:25.320 that fixed the Alberta PCs.
00:11:27.080 These fractures and reunitings,
00:11:30.680 if I can use that word,
00:11:32.560 can be tremendously powerful
00:11:34.040 if a party has lost its way.
00:11:36.760 And the problem, though,
00:11:38.280 is that the PPC right now,
00:11:39.960 to a lot of its supporters,
00:11:41.300 by no means all,
00:11:42.360 but to a lot of its supporters,
00:11:44.040 is perpetually and indefinitely
00:11:47.280 positioned on the outside
00:11:49.540 of the mainstream,
00:11:51.460 whatever the mainstream is.
00:11:53.300 And trust me,
00:11:54.120 I understand why you might want nothing to do
00:11:56.160 with the mainstream
00:11:56.740 of what passes for a mainstream today.
00:11:58.960 That is not a judgment on my part.
00:12:01.040 I'm saying that there seem to be
00:12:01.980 a lot of PPC folks I talk to
00:12:03.580 that relish being on the outside
00:12:05.940 and never quite want to be on the inside.
00:12:09.160 And that's going to be,
00:12:10.440 I think, the big challenge.
00:12:11.400 I know for a fact
00:12:12.360 that there are a lot of people
00:12:13.380 that are really diehard PPC supporters
00:12:15.160 that are Maxime Bernier bust,
00:12:17.040 and that's fine.
00:12:17.620 That's your prerogative.
00:12:18.420 But I know there were, in 2021,
00:12:20.880 a lot of soft PPC supporters
00:12:22.420 that said,
00:12:22.940 well, I would vote Conservative
00:12:25.020 if Leslyn Lewis were the leader.
00:12:27.400 Or I would vote Conservative
00:12:28.680 if Pierre Polyev were the leader.
00:12:30.780 Well, you fast forward,
00:12:32.300 and Pierre Polyev is the leader.
00:12:34.460 And a lot of those people,
00:12:35.400 the PPC, I think,
00:12:36.660 is having trouble
00:12:37.980 keeping on to us voters.
00:12:40.520 And again, by-elections can be weird,
00:12:43.140 and they can be anomalous,
00:12:44.280 and you never want to extrapolate
00:12:45.440 too much from these things.
00:12:46.520 But it is a cautionary tale
00:12:49.120 on all fronts.
00:12:49.920 I think there's a caution
00:12:50.820 against the Conservatives
00:12:52.560 in Oxford County
00:12:53.660 of what happens
00:12:54.340 when nominations attract
00:12:55.920 the wrong type of attention.
00:12:57.600 And I think in Portage-Lisker,
00:12:58.860 there is a caution
00:12:59.820 against the PPC
00:13:01.460 that maybe they are not going
00:13:04.280 to coast in as strongly
00:13:05.520 as they did last time
00:13:06.820 and have the upward trajectory
00:13:08.820 that they did last time,
00:13:10.520 which was inconsequential
00:13:12.340 and undeniable
00:13:13.220 in the 2021 election.
00:13:15.220 But a little backward-looking
00:13:17.160 into 2021
00:13:18.460 is, I think, important here
00:13:19.720 because Aaron O'Toole
00:13:20.580 has finally surrendered
00:13:22.500 his seat in Parliament.
00:13:23.820 I say finally,
00:13:24.600 not like I'm glad to see him go,
00:13:26.500 but just because he announced
00:13:28.020 it a little while ago,
00:13:28.800 and now he's formally ended this.
00:13:31.320 And he has given his farewell speech
00:13:33.140 in the House of Commons
00:13:33.880 and had some parting words
00:13:35.420 about conservatism
00:13:37.220 that he shared on CTV.
00:13:39.420 You know, the Conservatives
00:13:40.520 won the popular vote
00:13:41.420 in the last two elections.
00:13:42.820 It just wasn't efficient enough.
00:13:44.240 And Mr. Trudeau,
00:13:45.780 some of the polarization
00:13:46.580 is actually focusing
00:13:48.780 and over-delivering
00:13:49.840 your small cohort.
00:13:51.180 So he's now one,
00:13:52.520 two minority governments
00:13:53.620 with a smaller popular vote
00:13:55.640 and in some elections
00:13:57.340 being virtually shut out
00:13:58.620 in certain provinces
00:13:59.640 of the country.
00:14:00.780 So I think,
00:14:01.960 had the pandemic
00:14:02.820 not been a part
00:14:03.720 of the discussion,
00:14:04.900 I had a lot
00:14:05.620 of fiscal Conservatives
00:14:06.880 that wanted to see
00:14:08.300 the Conservatives
00:14:09.820 with a smart plan
00:14:10.920 on the environment.
00:14:11.520 a lot of business leaders,
00:14:13.600 for example,
00:14:14.060 or small business owners
00:14:15.060 that wanted to make sure
00:14:16.960 they lowered emissions
00:14:18.540 for their kids,
00:14:19.460 but were worried
00:14:20.520 about our competitiveness,
00:14:21.720 worried about trade relations,
00:14:23.580 thought Mr. Trudeau's ethics
00:14:24.660 were questionable.
00:14:25.420 So there's a bunch of voters
00:14:26.700 that want to see
00:14:28.360 the Conservatives
00:14:29.100 address all issues.
00:14:30.520 I think Pierre will do that.
00:14:32.340 So, Aaron O'Toole there,
00:14:34.780 I believe,
00:14:35.620 was characterized uncharitably
00:14:37.520 in this CTV tweet
00:14:38.880 that went around,
00:14:39.700 and I shared it myself
00:14:40.620 in which it says,
00:14:42.240 Aaron O'Toole tells
00:14:43.040 Vashti Capellos
00:14:43.840 he still believes
00:14:44.420 the Conservative Party
00:14:45.400 needs to moderate
00:14:46.220 if it's going to win
00:14:47.760 the next election.
00:14:48.840 He didn't use those words,
00:14:50.220 but he did make
00:14:51.240 that implication
00:14:51.980 when he talked about,
00:14:53.480 ooh, believing that
00:14:54.200 they needed a smart plan
00:14:55.440 on the environment.
00:14:56.120 So he is still actually
00:14:57.100 standing by
00:14:58.220 his decision
00:14:59.300 to introduce a carbon tax
00:15:00.560 despite it being
00:15:01.460 probably the most
00:15:03.240 singularly unpopular issue
00:15:05.640 within the Conservative base
00:15:07.660 because it angers
00:15:08.920 the red Tories even
00:15:10.720 who, like,
00:15:11.280 the only thing
00:15:12.120 you can kind of get them on
00:15:13.200 is fiscal Conservatives.
00:15:14.300 It angers the blue Tories.
00:15:15.500 It angers the social Conservatives
00:15:17.420 because, you know,
00:15:18.220 who likes a carbon tax
00:15:19.180 regardless of anything else?
00:15:21.300 So Aaron O'Toole
00:15:22.160 is still standing by that
00:15:24.360 and still kind of claiming
00:15:26.020 that, well, you know,
00:15:26.840 the Conservatives
00:15:27.340 will win the election
00:15:27.940 if they had a plan
00:15:28.540 on the environment.
00:15:29.120 Well, you did that.
00:15:30.320 You did that.
00:15:30.980 We listened.
00:15:31.640 And I sort of cheekily said
00:15:33.200 in response to the tweet here
00:15:35.280 that, oh,
00:15:36.520 if only we had some way
00:15:37.920 of knowing what would happen
00:15:39.080 if Aaron O'Toole's vision
00:15:40.180 of the Conservative party
00:15:41.440 were to stand in an election.
00:15:43.280 Hint, hint, we do.
00:15:44.840 It was that vision
00:15:45.900 that tried to give everything
00:15:47.600 to win Quebec
00:15:48.160 and failed to do so,
00:15:49.300 that tried to give everything
00:15:50.040 to win the GTA
00:15:50.960 and failed to do so,
00:15:52.460 that tried to expand the base
00:15:53.800 by moving ever closer
00:15:55.400 to the centre
00:15:56.080 and even the left
00:15:57.320 and it did not work.
00:15:58.820 And I said in an interview
00:16:00.120 recently,
00:16:01.300 I can't even remember
00:16:01.800 who I was talking to,
00:16:02.820 that, well,
00:16:04.200 I didn't love
00:16:05.540 how the Conservative party
00:16:07.040 went in that last election.
00:16:09.080 I thought it was
00:16:09.900 tremendously important
00:16:11.100 that they did
00:16:11.800 because now we have
00:16:12.940 the test case.
00:16:13.840 Now we have
00:16:14.480 the definitive proof
00:16:15.760 of what happens
00:16:16.540 if the Red Tory fantasy
00:16:18.500 and the Red Tory delusion
00:16:20.220 is put in motion.
00:16:22.120 You get a campaign
00:16:22.940 that looks exactly
00:16:23.700 like the one
00:16:24.340 the Conservatives ran
00:16:25.480 in 2021
00:16:26.100 and you get a loss
00:16:27.440 that looks exactly
00:16:28.380 like the Conservative
00:16:29.560 loss in 2021.
00:16:30.840 And don't give me the,
00:16:31.540 oh, but they won
00:16:32.060 the popular vote
00:16:32.780 because that and five bucks
00:16:34.500 doesn't even get you
00:16:35.280 a latte at Starbucks.
00:16:36.760 I had to like correct
00:16:37.400 the metaphor
00:16:38.000 midway through
00:16:39.040 because I don't actually
00:16:39.940 know what a latte
00:16:41.040 costs at Starbucks now,
00:16:42.080 but I'm assuming
00:16:42.620 it's more than $5
00:16:43.340 because, you know,
00:16:44.220 inflation kills
00:16:45.340 anything and everything.
00:16:47.060 That does it for us
00:16:48.440 for now.
00:16:49.640 I want to take
00:16:50.340 a quick break.
00:16:50.960 We'll be back
00:16:51.400 talking about
00:16:52.120 the Asian Infrastructure
00:16:53.280 Investment Bank
00:16:54.000 with the great
00:16:55.040 Joe Oliver.
00:16:55.880 Stay with me.
00:16:56.440 You're tuned in
00:17:00.820 to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:17:06.760 Welcome back
00:17:07.640 to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:17:09.220 Last week,
00:17:09.860 there was a bit
00:17:10.960 of a geopolitical
00:17:12.240 firestorm of sorts
00:17:13.840 that started
00:17:14.620 with the resignation
00:17:16.160 of a Canadian gentleman
00:17:17.840 by the name
00:17:18.360 of Bob Picard
00:17:19.540 from the AIIB.
00:17:21.700 Now, this is the
00:17:22.440 Asian Infrastructure
00:17:24.060 Investment Bank,
00:17:25.220 a Beijing-based bank
00:17:27.140 that's been around
00:17:27.740 for seven years or so.
00:17:29.780 And it might not
00:17:30.520 surprise you
00:17:31.180 if you followed
00:17:31.940 anything to do
00:17:32.800 with this institution
00:17:33.800 in the past
00:17:34.400 to hear what Bob said
00:17:35.760 in his parting words
00:17:37.940 after resigning.
00:17:39.100 He tweeted
00:17:39.600 that he has tendered
00:17:41.220 his resignation
00:17:41.760 as a patriotic Canadian.
00:17:44.060 This was my only course.
00:17:46.160 The bank is dominated
00:17:47.340 by Communist Party members
00:17:48.880 and also has
00:17:49.700 one of the most
00:17:50.300 toxic cultures imaginable.
00:17:52.540 I don't believe
00:17:53.320 that my country's interests
00:17:54.720 are served
00:17:55.600 by its AIIB membership.
00:17:58.120 He later added to that
00:17:59.320 by saying that
00:18:00.100 the Communist Party
00:18:01.060 hacks hold the cards
00:18:02.280 at the bank.
00:18:03.460 They deal with
00:18:04.200 some board members
00:18:05.020 as useful idiots.
00:18:07.000 He believes that Canada
00:18:07.980 should not be a member
00:18:09.080 of this PRC,
00:18:10.820 that's the People's
00:18:11.700 Republic of China,
00:18:13.280 instrument.
00:18:13.860 The reality of power
00:18:15.080 in the bank
00:18:15.540 is that it's CCP
00:18:16.600 from start to finish.
00:18:18.060 Now, he's been there
00:18:18.800 for about a year.
00:18:20.220 There are other
00:18:20.780 supposedly esteemed individuals,
00:18:22.900 former Treasury secretaries,
00:18:23.720 secretaries that sit
00:18:24.800 in this organization.
00:18:26.640 But now Canada
00:18:27.420 has, in light of this,
00:18:29.460 decided to put a freeze
00:18:31.060 on its contributions
00:18:32.640 to the AIIB
00:18:33.560 and have a review,
00:18:34.780 which the bank,
00:18:35.420 of course, says
00:18:36.020 it has nothing to hide.
00:18:37.360 There's nothing to see here.
00:18:38.560 We'll totally cooperate.
00:18:39.820 You won't find any
00:18:40.680 Chinese Communist
00:18:42.240 institutional officials
00:18:43.620 in this.
00:18:44.660 I'm less convinced.
00:18:45.860 I want to talk to
00:18:46.760 former Finance Minister
00:18:48.420 Joe Oliver about this.
00:18:49.860 Now, obviously,
00:18:50.900 this was not an institution
00:18:53.320 that existed
00:18:54.140 in the time
00:18:55.380 that you were in government
00:18:56.300 and that Stephen Harper
00:18:57.160 was there.
00:18:57.720 It came in 2016.
00:18:59.320 But I'm guessing for you,
00:19:01.140 this is not something
00:19:02.240 that is all that surprising
00:19:03.740 to see these allegations.
00:19:05.960 Well, no, not really,
00:19:07.200 because we knew,
00:19:08.120 of course,
00:19:08.700 the Asian Infrastructure
00:19:11.980 Investment Bank
00:19:12.840 would be dominated
00:19:14.120 by the Chinese.
00:19:15.280 we had an opportunity
00:19:17.680 to join in 2015
00:19:19.720 when I was
00:19:20.500 Minister of Finance
00:19:21.500 and we declined.
00:19:23.860 And I looked at the opportunity,
00:19:27.300 let's call it that,
00:19:28.560 and concluded that really
00:19:30.560 there was no interest
00:19:32.500 in Canada joining.
00:19:34.520 There was quite
00:19:35.500 a significant cost.
00:19:36.920 It wasn't precisely defined,
00:19:38.540 but it looked like
00:19:39.420 it was going to be
00:19:39.980 in the hundreds
00:19:40.420 of millions of dollars.
00:19:41.880 And I didn't really
00:19:43.040 see an upside.
00:19:44.480 I mean, for one thing,
00:19:46.420 our big pension funds
00:19:48.440 would, of course,
00:19:49.100 be welcome
00:19:50.060 to participate
00:19:51.500 in an infrastructure project
00:19:53.100 if they wanted to,
00:19:54.020 because they had
00:19:54.860 billions of dollars
00:19:56.480 to invest.
00:19:58.020 And as far as
00:19:59.000 Canadian construction companies
00:20:01.560 and others
00:20:02.000 who might be involved
00:20:03.220 on a sort of
00:20:05.080 a pay-to-play
00:20:06.700 kind of basis,
00:20:08.840 the history
00:20:09.960 was not very good
00:20:11.720 in terms of
00:20:12.780 Canada's ability
00:20:13.920 opportunity to participate.
00:20:14.980 We, in fact,
00:20:16.340 participated
00:20:16.920 in the previous
00:20:17.680 10 years
00:20:18.400 in about 1%
00:20:20.660 of total projects.
00:20:22.880 So I really didn't
00:20:23.820 see the upside
00:20:25.060 other than a real
00:20:26.100 kind of a feel-good
00:20:28.020 photo op,
00:20:29.380 which, in fact,
00:20:30.160 happened three years later
00:20:31.880 when then-finance minister
00:20:34.520 Bill Morneau
00:20:35.620 announced to the public
00:20:36.700 that Canada,
00:20:37.720 among great fanfare,
00:20:39.160 and the prime minister
00:20:39.980 was involved
00:20:40.640 in the Photoshop
00:20:41.780 as well,
00:20:42.480 obviously,
00:20:43.160 because they had
00:20:44.440 a very friendly attitude
00:20:47.340 to China
00:20:48.840 that they were going
00:20:50.240 to join.
00:20:51.140 And they never really
00:20:51.940 discussed what the cost
00:20:53.700 would be.
00:20:54.440 If you look
00:20:55.180 at the annual report
00:20:57.860 of the AIIB,
00:20:59.080 you see that Canada
00:21:00.220 has a subscription
00:21:01.420 of close to a billion dollars.
00:21:04.520 But that doesn't mean
00:21:05.480 we paid that full amount in,
00:21:07.800 but we've been paying,
00:21:08.980 I gather,
00:21:09.760 about $40 million a year.
00:21:11.140 We're moving towards
00:21:12.320 $200 million,
00:21:14.260 which isn't a pocket change,
00:21:16.540 in my opinion.
00:21:18.200 And as far as I can determine,
00:21:20.740 we've got precisely
00:21:22.340 nothing out of it.
00:21:23.980 In the meantime,
00:21:24.920 of course,
00:21:25.300 our relationship
00:21:26.060 with China
00:21:26.780 has deteriorated
00:21:28.260 for a variety of reasons
00:21:30.440 that Canadians
00:21:31.160 are well aware of.
00:21:32.580 Just going back to 2015 there,
00:21:35.740 when you and the Canadian government
00:21:37.480 decided not to get involved
00:21:39.280 in this,
00:21:39.800 was that purely
00:21:40.840 a financial decision
00:21:42.660 or was there a concern
00:21:43.820 that this would become
00:21:44.780 an instrument
00:21:45.460 of the Chinese Politburo?
00:21:48.040 Well,
00:21:48.560 we assumed that,
00:21:50.120 of course,
00:21:50.560 it would be
00:21:51.460 because everything major
00:21:53.640 that China is involved
00:21:55.800 in commercially
00:21:56.560 has control
00:21:58.460 by the party.
00:22:00.240 And we knew that
00:22:01.480 at the time,
00:22:02.100 perhaps that wasn't
00:22:03.040 widely understood,
00:22:04.180 but it was pretty obvious.
00:22:08.000 And as I recall,
00:22:09.820 the Chinese didn't put pressure
00:22:13.040 on us to join.
00:22:14.520 They encouraged us to,
00:22:16.320 but I didn't feel
00:22:17.920 any muscle in that regard.
00:22:20.140 And on the other side of it,
00:22:21.960 the Americans,
00:22:23.120 who were quite critical
00:22:24.420 of the British joining the AIIB,
00:22:27.760 explicitly told us,
00:22:30.760 Jack Lew,
00:22:31.660 who was the Secretary
00:22:32.600 of Treasury at the time,
00:22:34.260 told me
00:22:35.080 that he wasn't really
00:22:36.500 asking us not to join,
00:22:39.120 but he just wanted us
00:22:40.700 to be aware
00:22:41.320 that there were
00:22:41.980 concerns on their part
00:22:44.500 in terms of governance,
00:22:46.500 procurement,
00:22:47.760 corruption,
00:22:48.900 even environmental issues
00:22:51.080 about the types of projects
00:22:52.600 they were involved in.
00:22:54.220 Now they,
00:22:55.940 of course,
00:22:56.400 the Americans,
00:22:57.200 viewed the AIIB
00:22:58.740 as a competitive institution
00:23:00.840 to the World Bank
00:23:03.380 and other institutions
00:23:05.640 that they were supportive of.
00:23:07.220 So they were clearly
00:23:08.120 unhappy with that development.
00:23:11.580 But as it turned out,
00:23:12.940 Japan was the only other
00:23:15.180 G7 country
00:23:17.060 aside from Canada
00:23:18.680 that didn't join.
00:23:19.440 Now,
00:23:21.200 the one thing
00:23:21.860 that I should say
00:23:23.120 just for those
00:23:23.880 who don't follow this,
00:23:25.060 China is launching
00:23:26.400 and has been
00:23:27.440 for several years
00:23:28.320 this incredibly costly
00:23:30.280 Belt and Road Initiative
00:23:31.420 where they're basically,
00:23:32.860 I think,
00:23:33.380 entrapping a lot
00:23:34.220 of developing countries.
00:23:35.360 They're building,
00:23:36.980 you know,
00:23:37.160 these brand new ship ports
00:23:38.460 and airports
00:23:39.020 in countries
00:23:40.080 that never could have
00:23:41.000 afforded these things
00:23:42.420 on their own
00:23:43.020 without a lot of help.
00:23:44.000 And a lot of that
00:23:44.900 is being funneled
00:23:46.080 directly through the AIIB.
00:23:47.800 So, I mean,
00:23:48.460 this is really a part
00:23:49.300 of this, you know,
00:23:50.420 great Chinese economic
00:23:51.740 conquest, this institution.
00:23:54.100 Yeah, well,
00:23:54.340 there's no question.
00:23:55.320 It's all coordinated
00:23:56.880 with a view
00:23:58.140 to extending
00:24:00.260 China's reach
00:24:02.840 internationally
00:24:04.120 and have,
00:24:05.660 first,
00:24:06.860 have countries
00:24:07.660 and institutions
00:24:09.180 recognize that Canada,
00:24:11.360 that China
00:24:12.040 has the second largest
00:24:13.240 GDP
00:24:14.640 and that it,
00:24:16.600 you know,
00:24:17.320 it's very assertive
00:24:18.540 and it's demanding
00:24:19.560 respect
00:24:20.180 and more than that,
00:24:21.220 dominance
00:24:22.620 in the South China Sea
00:24:24.800 and elsewhere.
00:24:25.500 And this is,
00:24:26.260 they're using
00:24:26.820 their financial muscle
00:24:28.180 to increase
00:24:30.040 their influence
00:24:31.700 around the world,
00:24:32.940 in particular
00:24:33.540 with less developed
00:24:36.280 countries
00:24:36.760 where, you know,
00:24:37.620 as you implied,
00:24:38.800 they're using
00:24:40.160 their financial instruments
00:24:42.780 to get into projects
00:24:45.240 that they wouldn't
00:24:45.780 necessarily be welcome in.
00:24:47.520 But if these projects
00:24:50.300 aren't able
00:24:51.960 to return
00:24:52.740 the interest rate
00:24:54.480 that they're owed
00:24:55.040 to the Chinese government,
00:24:57.240 then, of course,
00:24:58.400 China can seize the assets
00:25:00.500 and get control
00:25:01.920 of ports
00:25:02.520 and airports
00:25:03.020 and other
00:25:04.280 major infrastructure
00:25:05.800 projects
00:25:06.560 that
00:25:07.000 the country
00:25:09.960 or the borrower
00:25:10.740 wouldn't otherwise
00:25:12.060 sell to them.
00:25:13.580 You looked at the dollars
00:25:14.940 and cents in 2015
00:25:16.280 as we were talking
00:25:17.000 about a moment ago
00:25:17.660 and you said
00:25:18.040 you just don't see
00:25:18.840 the economic benefit
00:25:20.480 here among other issues.
00:25:22.300 How did that change?
00:25:23.700 I mean, obviously
00:25:24.160 with the new government
00:25:24.980 comes new priorities,
00:25:26.260 but when the Liberals
00:25:27.160 came in and joined this,
00:25:29.000 how did they make
00:25:29.880 that value proposition?
00:25:31.360 Because the numbers
00:25:32.100 probably hadn't changed
00:25:33.540 all that much
00:25:34.140 between when Canada
00:25:35.600 decided not to join
00:25:36.980 and when Canada
00:25:37.780 decided eventually to join.
00:25:40.060 No, I don't think
00:25:41.080 the numbers changed at all.
00:25:42.620 And in fact,
00:25:43.480 the subsequent history
00:25:44.660 proves definitively
00:25:46.740 that we were right,
00:25:48.860 that there was nothing
00:25:49.620 in it for us.
00:25:51.520 But if I may be permitted
00:25:53.900 a partisan comment,
00:25:55.300 the Liberals don't seem
00:25:57.980 to put high priority
00:26:00.020 on fiscal prudence
00:26:02.960 and they weren't
00:26:05.300 particularly worried
00:26:06.220 about the cost.
00:26:08.080 Maybe they viewed it
00:26:09.120 as a development exercise.
00:26:11.300 I think it was more
00:26:12.660 wanting to be in the room
00:26:15.800 with the big boys
00:26:16.680 and cozying up to China,
00:26:19.540 which they were trying to do.
00:26:23.340 And of course,
00:26:24.080 we know the prime minister's
00:26:26.100 personal history
00:26:26.920 and his father's history
00:26:28.000 in this regard.
00:26:29.920 So I don't think
00:26:30.720 they ever attempted
00:26:31.640 to justify it
00:26:34.760 on a cost-benefit perspective
00:26:36.420 for they were looking
00:26:37.600 at the so-called bigger picture
00:26:39.880 of participating
00:26:41.720 in another multilateral
00:26:43.180 organization
00:26:44.060 and being a big boy
00:26:47.060 in international
00:26:47.860 infrastructure development.
00:26:50.040 But let me just,
00:26:51.560 in that regard,
00:26:52.420 I think there's another
00:26:53.200 important point to make
00:26:54.440 and that is that
00:26:56.300 our willingness
00:26:58.480 to put hundreds of millions
00:27:00.780 into the AIIB
00:27:02.500 could have been better spent
00:27:04.860 if, in fact,
00:27:05.800 we felt compelled
00:27:08.080 to spend money
00:27:08.880 in respect
00:27:10.240 to domestic infrastructure
00:27:12.640 in our own country,
00:27:14.540 which is sorely needed
00:27:16.660 and would help
00:27:17.820 with improving
00:27:20.660 our productivity,
00:27:22.840 which is at a very poor level.
00:27:25.220 In fact,
00:27:25.860 the OECD said
00:27:27.120 that Canada
00:27:28.460 is going to have
00:27:29.820 a poor record
00:27:30.780 of GDP
00:27:31.720 per capita growth
00:27:33.660 of any other wealthy country
00:27:35.320 in the entire world.
00:27:36.680 Well, infrastructure
00:27:37.380 is part of that problem.
00:27:39.320 So, you know,
00:27:40.020 that money
00:27:40.620 could better be spent
00:27:43.160 in Canada.
00:27:43.900 Now, you know,
00:27:46.220 the money is not available,
00:27:49.400 of course.
00:27:49.780 It wasn't available.
00:27:50.660 So it represents
00:27:52.320 additional borrowing
00:27:54.160 by the government
00:27:56.120 of Canada.
00:27:57.120 And needless to say,
00:27:58.540 we borrowed a lot.
00:27:59.940 Our debt
00:28:00.780 is approaching
00:28:01.500 1.2 trillion.
00:28:03.240 And the interest
00:28:04.960 on the debt
00:28:05.900 will be,
00:28:07.320 I think it's going
00:28:08.100 to be up to
00:28:08.740 $50 billion a year
00:28:10.380 by 2027.
00:28:12.220 And I think
00:28:13.400 it's approximately
00:28:14.500 $45 billion.
00:28:16.700 It's over
00:28:17.960 $4,000 a year
00:28:20.100 for a family of four.
00:28:21.760 So adding more debt
00:28:23.180 is not
00:28:25.480 an attractive proposition.
00:28:27.960 And it wasn't
00:28:28.880 for us then.
00:28:30.880 Yeah,
00:28:31.440 and you're right
00:28:32.200 that there has,
00:28:33.400 there are times
00:28:34.360 when maybe
00:28:34.860 you can justify
00:28:35.740 the elective spending.
00:28:38.640 And we have not been
00:28:39.900 in one of those periods
00:28:41.000 for the last few years,
00:28:42.060 certainly.
00:28:42.380 And I guess
00:28:43.500 I'll ask about this
00:28:44.600 in the broader context
00:28:45.860 of Canada's relations
00:28:47.100 with China
00:28:47.660 because I know
00:28:48.180 that the Conservative
00:28:48.960 government
00:28:49.440 has been criticized
00:28:51.360 for the free trade
00:28:53.140 agreement with China
00:28:54.100 that Stephen Harper
00:28:55.120 promoted.
00:28:55.760 I think that was 2014.
00:28:57.320 No, there was no
00:28:59.080 free trade.
00:29:00.080 Well, not,
00:29:00.680 that's how it's been
00:29:02.160 criticized.
00:29:03.560 But the FIPA
00:29:04.380 is what I'm referring to.
00:29:05.320 Yeah, but no,
00:29:06.660 this is an important point.
00:29:07.700 There's trade.
00:29:08.080 Okay, no,
00:29:08.440 and that's fair.
00:29:09.100 And I was imprecise
00:29:10.820 as I set up the premise.
00:29:11.900 So I'll let you characterize it.
00:29:13.180 But I'll just ask,
00:29:14.200 as you characterize that,
00:29:15.760 do you have any regrets
00:29:16.700 about that effort
00:29:18.100 that the Conservatives
00:29:19.620 made to really try
00:29:20.800 to cement these ties
00:29:22.340 with China?
00:29:22.860 No, we've got to
00:29:25.180 set the record straight there.
00:29:26.960 We were in favor
00:29:28.320 of trade with China
00:29:30.580 if it advanced
00:29:32.280 our economic interests.
00:29:33.940 I mean, after all,
00:29:35.040 given its size,
00:29:36.620 and everybody's talking
00:29:37.560 about kind of reducing
00:29:38.960 our dependency
00:29:40.100 on trade
00:29:40.680 with the United States,
00:29:41.840 which represents 75%
00:29:44.160 of our trade,
00:29:45.800 you don't turn your back
00:29:47.800 on a huge market.
00:29:49.440 But I certainly
00:29:50.860 wasn't in favor
00:29:51.800 and neither was
00:29:52.660 the Prime Minister,
00:29:53.620 which is more important,
00:29:54.800 in favor of a free trade
00:29:56.540 agreement with China
00:29:57.580 at that time
00:29:58.980 or at any time since.
00:30:02.280 It just didn't make sense.
00:30:04.240 Now, I personally...
00:30:06.020 But it was liberalizing
00:30:07.360 trade with China.
00:30:08.660 Yeah, but look,
00:30:09.620 I went to China many times
00:30:11.600 and I saw
00:30:14.260 a strategic complementarity
00:30:17.200 between Canada and China
00:30:20.080 in this respect.
00:30:21.180 We needed to diversify
00:30:24.180 the markets
00:30:25.060 for our oil and gas
00:30:27.060 and they needed
00:30:28.660 to diversify
00:30:29.600 their sources of supply.
00:30:32.100 Being able to sell
00:30:33.800 more oil and gas
00:30:35.800 or any oil and gas
00:30:37.260 to China
00:30:38.240 would have had
00:30:39.580 enormous beneficial
00:30:40.720 impact on Canada
00:30:42.760 because of the hundreds
00:30:43.640 of billions of dollars
00:30:44.600 we could have earned.
00:30:45.440 Also, if we sold gas,
00:30:48.940 we would have been able
00:30:50.280 to reduce net global emissions
00:30:52.360 because that gas
00:30:53.920 would be substituting
00:30:54.740 for much higher
00:30:55.520 emitting coal.
00:30:57.340 So there was an environmental
00:30:58.960 advantage to that as well.
00:31:02.220 And I had an opportunity
00:31:03.880 once to actually discuss
00:31:05.980 that issue
00:31:06.540 with President Xi Jinping.
00:31:08.100 Interestingly,
00:31:10.240 when the former Governor General
00:31:12.540 David Johnson
00:31:13.720 was in Beijing
00:31:14.960 and he had arranged
00:31:17.240 a meeting
00:31:18.180 with the President
00:31:19.240 and Xi Jinping agreed.
00:31:22.160 Now,
00:31:23.020 that wasn't going
00:31:24.420 to change the world,
00:31:25.520 but if anything,
00:31:26.640 it might have somewhat
00:31:28.320 reduced the asymmetry
00:31:30.140 between our two countries.
00:31:32.140 but it never would have
00:31:33.660 reduced our
00:31:35.400 or increased
00:31:36.220 our dependency on them
00:31:37.540 because, you know,
00:31:38.640 if you could,
00:31:39.280 the tragedy was,
00:31:40.340 of course,
00:31:40.580 we couldn't deliver.
00:31:41.880 But if we could have delivered,
00:31:43.620 we could have delivered
00:31:44.420 to anyone in the world.
00:31:46.860 And, you know,
00:31:48.640 it's a terrible economic cost
00:31:51.780 that that's been,
00:31:53.380 that hasn't happened.
00:31:54.680 And I think we all know why.
00:31:57.460 But it would have been,
00:31:59.640 you know,
00:31:59.860 that particular trade
00:32:01.200 would have been advantageous
00:32:02.640 to Canada
00:32:03.800 and in Canada's
00:32:05.440 national interest.
00:32:07.740 And that last part
00:32:09.120 is key
00:32:09.740 when we're talking about that
00:32:10.840 and certainly the AIIB.
00:32:13.020 Former Finance Minister
00:32:14.140 Joe Oliver,
00:32:14.840 always a pleasure, Joe.
00:32:15.700 Thanks for coming on.
00:32:17.160 Great to have me.
00:32:18.580 That was Joe Oliver,
00:32:20.420 former Minister of Finance
00:32:22.040 in Canada.
00:32:22.540 As soon as the word
00:32:23.820 left my mouth,
00:32:25.060 I knew that I had stepped in it
00:32:26.340 because it wasn't
00:32:26.800 a free trade deal.
00:32:27.640 I meant to say,
00:32:28.380 you know,
00:32:28.720 freeing the trade,
00:32:29.760 liberalizing,
00:32:30.540 making it a bit easier.
00:32:31.200 But I went for the shorthand
00:32:33.400 and Joe Oliver rightly
00:32:34.740 called me on it.
00:32:35.600 But nevertheless,
00:32:36.240 very insightful guy.
00:32:37.360 We'll have to have him back
00:32:38.320 on more often.
00:32:39.660 That does it for us
00:32:40.900 for today.
00:32:41.640 Remember,
00:32:42.080 special edition
00:32:42.620 of The Andrew Lawton Show
00:32:43.480 tomorrow,
00:32:44.580 a full-length sit-down
00:32:46.080 with Tamara Leach.
00:32:47.440 That's all coming up
00:32:48.500 in just 23 hours
00:32:50.460 here on The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:32:51.980 Thank you,
00:32:52.480 God bless,
00:32:53.040 and good day to you all.
00:32:54.220 Thanks for listening
00:32:54.980 to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:32:56.680 Support the program
00:32:57.500 by donating to True North
00:32:58.740 at www.tnc.news.
00:33:03.160 the Andrew Lawton Show.
00:33:09.560 Thank you.
00:33:10.600 Thanks for listening.