Juno News - April 24, 2025


Canada’s TOP pollster says the POLLS ARE WRONG


Episode Stats

Length

24 minutes

Words per Minute

184.55981

Word Count

4,496

Sentence Count

258

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

2


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Mark Carney. Trudeau's money man. Globalist. China's pal. Weeks in, he jets to Beijing.
00:00:09.700 Scores a $250 million loan from their state bank. 11 MPs tied to Beijing. Carney's crew
00:00:19.920 says nothing. Selling us out. Foreign cash. Secret deals. Carney's Canada.
00:00:30.000 Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is the Candace Malcolm Show. So one of the things that we have
00:00:37.100 done for you at Juno News is we have provided our own polls throughout the election campaign.
00:00:43.140 I don't trust the legacy media. I don't trust their polls. And so for that reason, we decided
00:00:48.040 to hire one of the best polling companies in the country to do our own polls. We did things
00:00:52.600 differently. One of the key things that we did differently is that we asked a neighbor poll.
00:00:56.560 So we asked Canadians who they think their neighbor is voting for, which really helped
00:01:01.060 us understand where the momentum was, right? Like what are people saying in coffee shops?
00:01:04.840 What are people saying around the dinner table? How many signs are you seeing? What's happening
00:01:08.740 in your neighborhood? And what the neighbor poll has shown throughout this campaign is
00:01:13.200 that the conservatives are winning. So contrary to the legacy media and their idea that the
00:01:18.340 liberals have had this huge lead throughout the campaign, our polls have said something
00:01:21.840 different. Today we have the final exclusive poll from Juno polls and it shows a dead heat
00:01:28.680 folks, 39 39. This is going to be an incredibly close election. It will all come down to election
00:01:37.180 day and who has the better ground game, who has more volunteers, who has more enthusiasm in
00:01:42.560 getting their voters to the polls to vote, vote for the candidate. And it is just incredibly important
00:01:49.840 that everybody who can gets out there and volunteers and helps if you want change in this country.
00:01:55.900 So to talk about this poll, go through line by line what the poll found. I'm pleased to be joined by David Murray.
00:02:02.760 David has been our in-house pollster for the campaign. He is an executive at One Persuade,
00:02:07.820 which is a polling company in Ontario. David, thanks so much for joining us.
00:02:11.580 Good to be with you.
00:02:12.680 Okay, so why don't you give it to us? What is the top line from the poll this week?
00:02:17.000 Top line this week is Conservatives and Liberals. Dead Heat at 39%. NDP at 10. Greens at 3. And
00:02:24.260 Bloc Québécois at 8. Other parties are at 2.
00:02:27.520 2. So 39 39. Literally a tie. And just maybe explain how this has shifted over the course of
00:02:35.040 the campaign. Like where were we at the beginning? How have things changed to get to where we are
00:02:38.860 here the last week?
00:02:39.640 There's been not a ton of movement, but what we've seen overall is a tightening over the course of the
00:02:46.820 election. You'll recall even a few weeks ago, we had the Liberals ahead by over 8 points. We were
00:02:55.120 showing this. Basically all the other pollsters were showing this. And everyone seems to be
00:02:59.360 consistently coming together and saying that things are really getting tight throughout the entire
00:03:03.540 country.
00:03:04.460 Well, I want to jump to David Coleto. I believe that David Coleto is one of the best, if not the
00:03:09.800 best pollsters. Yes, he's part of the sort of legacy media clique. And he frequently is featured on
00:03:16.100 legacy media. But he's fair. He's down the middle. Actually, I was telling this to my producer. He used to
00:03:21.280 work with me at the Sun News Network. So way back at the very beginning of his career, my career, he was a
00:03:26.740 young pollster at Sun News Network, which means that he's not, you know, if he's willing to work at
00:03:31.440 Sun, he's not totally in the bag for the left. He has a very interesting perspective here. I want to
00:03:37.460 show a tweet or a post on X that he wrote. He wrote this question, first of all, to go from a 15 point
00:03:44.700 Liberal lead a month ago to a 2.1 today is pretty remarkable. If you believe this, then you have to
00:03:51.440 believe that one, the Liberals have run a horrible campaign, and two, the Conservatives have won an
00:03:56.380 amazing campaign. So you can tell that there's some sort of skepticism in this idea, capturing the same
00:04:01.360 thing that our poll captured, which was that almost all the pollsters don't see this, you know, a month
00:04:06.380 ago, they had Carney up as much as 15 points, which I don't really believe to just, you know, for them,
00:04:12.640 it's a two point lead for the Libs. For us, it's a tie. And then he further elaborated on this. And he
00:04:18.800 wrote point blank, I don't believe the Liberals led by 15 points at any point, six to eight max. So here you
00:04:28.100 have an established mainstream pollster, one of the most, if not the most trusted pollster in the
00:04:34.580 entire country, saying that the polls are wrong, that he does not believe the polls. I had Ezra
00:04:39.860 Levant on my show earlier today, he pointed this out to me, and I'm going to point out to the audience
00:04:43.660 because it's so interesting, just to elaborate on this. So David Coletto basically just said that he
00:04:49.660 doesn't believe that this is right. He writes, what if the Liberals never really led by eight to 12 points,
00:04:57.060 and it was just response bias, right? So what is response bias? Ezra Levant replies as holy smokes,
00:05:03.920 he asked Grok, the AI tool on X, what is response bias in polling? And this is what Grok said,
00:05:12.340 response bias in polling is when participants' answers do not reflect their true opinions or
00:05:19.060 behaviors, skewing the results. This can happen when, and then names a number of factors like
00:05:23.760 social desireability. So just bear with me here. I think that there was a point at the campaign
00:05:29.420 where the legacy media and all of the fancy people and all of the elites in Canada were saying,
00:05:35.340 elbows up folks, we have to bring in the Liberals again to protect us from Donald Trump. And that was
00:05:41.620 sort of like the zeitgeist, the overwhelming, almost like COVID level groupthink that was being
00:05:46.520 pushed on Canadians. And many of them kind of just went along with it, even though they didn't really
00:05:51.120 believe it, even though in their heart of hearts, they still want to change. They want something
00:05:55.040 different. They believe that it's time for a new government, a new party. And so their intentions
00:06:00.120 were always to vote conservative, but they told pollsters that they were part of the elbows up
00:06:05.200 crowd, part of the liberal movement. And so that is why, sort of reading between the lines,
00:06:10.680 I believe that's what David Coletto is saying, which shows that even the pollsters themselves that
00:06:16.020 are conducting these polls, don't believe that the Liberals actually held that level of lead.
00:06:21.020 What do you think, David?
00:06:22.140 I think this also points to our methodology of using the neighbor poll as well, because there's
00:06:25.880 always a phenomenon that we've known about for a very long time called shy Tory, where people are
00:06:31.580 more reluctant to personally admit that they are actually voting conservatives than compared to
00:06:35.500 other more, quote unquote, socially acceptable parties. And David is an absolute professional,
00:06:41.640 completely respect his work. He's also very noticeably, very recently, he also did an issue
00:06:47.980 set scan as well, and really noted how the race in and of itself has shifted over the course in terms
00:06:55.280 of actual issues that are brought forward. So it was at the very beginning when everyone was showing
00:07:02.040 Carney quite far ahead. It was very much focused on Donald Trump, like literally trumping all other
00:07:08.700 issues. But as time has gone on, as Mr. President Trump has been a little bit more quiet on the
00:07:16.120 scene, you've seen that issue set shift away more towards cost of living to housing to public safety,
00:07:21.500 all these core issues that Mr. Polioff has been talking about at great length. So I agree that I
00:07:28.080 don't think that the Liberals were ever 15 points ahead. I think that that is certainly a stretch.
00:07:34.980 But I think this also goes back to my earlier theory from a few episodes ago, where there's a difference
00:07:40.700 between Mark Carney the idea and Mark Carney the actual person. So the idea of a an economic manager,
00:07:47.080 a central banker being, quote unquote, steady hand at the wheel, is quite different from the actual Mark
00:07:53.400 Carney that's been presented to Canadians over the course of the last few weeks. So I think as Canadians continue
00:07:59.220 to reconcile that, I think that also explains a lot of the movement that we've been seeing in these polls.
00:08:04.780 I talked about this after the debate. I think that anybody who watched the debate,
00:08:09.060 that the entire narrative that legacy media has been trying to promote, that this is an election
00:08:12.840 about Trump, that Trump is an existential threat to Canada, and that the only party that can save us
00:08:18.380 from Trump is the most anti-American party. That whole narrative just went out the window if you
00:08:21.920 watch the debate. Because I give Steve Pakin, the moderator, a lot of credit for steering the debate,
00:08:28.440 the content of the debate, the questions around actual issues about Canada, like the cost of living,
00:08:33.880 public policy issues made by the federal government. That is what we're voting on. We're voting on who
00:08:38.260 is the best manager of the federal government, not like some, you know, who can summon the courage
00:08:43.900 about, you know, this voodoo spirit that's coming out, attacking us from the South. Like that's all
00:08:48.680 nonsense. The question of this campaign is really about who will be the best government, who will be
00:08:54.100 the best manager of Canada. And he watched the debate, knew that that Trump line just didn't
00:08:58.940 stick. It just didn't work. And the more the debate went on, the more the questions just became
00:09:04.300 about, again, cost of living, housing, taxes, regulation, how can we grow our economy? How can
00:09:09.760 we stop the slumping economy, et cetera, et cetera? Rightly so. And just one more tweet from David
00:09:15.160 Coleto, and then we'll get back to our exclusive poll. But he talks about how the framing of the
00:09:20.180 election really matters. So this is one more post from X. He said that the campaign is evolving in
00:09:25.540 the way that voters are framing the ballot question. At the end of March, more Canadians said that they
00:09:29.520 would cast their boat based on which party could best handle Donald Trump and his impact on Canada.
00:09:34.160 But in our most recent surveys, it's flipped back. And so if you just look at this screenshot,
00:09:39.420 this frame, the first column here, the red numbers are the people who are putting Trump first,
00:09:44.760 that's what their main ballot box question. The last week of March, 54% of Canadians said that
00:09:49.440 that was a top issue versus 46% who said it's about who could best change the direction of the country.
00:09:55.340 That has completely flipped. So over the five weeks of the campaign, it went from 54% looking at Trump,
00:10:01.420 46% looking at change, and then you can flip that. So 44% now at Trump, 56% now about change.
00:10:08.040 If you switched it and changed it to Trump versus the cost of living. So at the beginning of the
00:10:13.540 campaign, 58% of the people said cost of living, 42% said Trump. Now, five weeks later, 64% say cost of
00:10:21.920 living, only 36% say Trump when it's compared to those two issues. And then the third question was,
00:10:28.400 who has a better plan for the economy? Whether that's going to be the thing you vote on? Or again,
00:10:33.760 Donald Trump, beginning of the campaign, it was 53% said, grow the economy, 47% said Trump.
00:10:39.960 And now that's 59% say, and then 41% say Trump. So 59% say grow the economy, 41% Trump. So no matter
00:10:49.080 which question it is, the Trump issue has declined in its importance, and the other issues have grown.
00:10:56.220 So whether or not it's actually a 10 point swing away from the liberals, or maybe just a 10 to 15
00:11:01.120 point swing away from Trump being the ballot box question, what do you think of this?
00:11:06.260 I think that while the importance of the Trump question has certainly degraded over time, over
00:11:13.160 the course of the campaign, I think it's still definitely in the top three or four issues for
00:11:17.620 a lot of Canadians. And so with that shift, with it not being the be all end all only question that
00:11:24.880 you're voting on, people are being more receptive to the messages of building economic resiliency in
00:11:31.480 this in this country, so that we're not exclusively dependent on the United States for our own
00:11:36.420 prosperity, looking for new trade partners, increasing our own prosperity, through regulatory
00:11:42.420 reform, getting more resources to market, getting them out of the ground, making Canada have the
00:11:47.420 wealthiest middle class, again, like it did back in 2015, when Harper was Prime Minister.
00:11:53.320 So yes, the issue set is changing. Yes, Trump is still part of the equation. I don't think anyone is
00:11:59.280 saying otherwise. It's just the magnitude and impact that he's having on the individual voters
00:12:04.700 has certainly had a noticeable decrease over the last four weeks. Okay, let's go back to our poll.
00:12:10.240 So like we said off the top 3939. Wow, that's close. First of all, how would that translate
00:12:15.660 into seats? Because I'll just I'll just go to this. So if you look at the last three elections,
00:12:22.100 the last two elections, in 2021, the final on election day, the final vote count had the liberals
00:12:28.560 at 33%, conservatives at 34, NDP at 18, block at eight. Okay, so in 20, that was 2021. 2019 had the
00:12:38.340 liberals at 33%, again, conservatives, again, 34%, NDP at 16, block at eight. And if you go back to 2015,
00:12:46.800 when Justin Trudeau won, a huge majority government, one of the biggest majority governments in my
00:12:52.660 lifetime, the liberal party finished at 39%. The conservatives finished at 32, the NDP at 20.
00:12:59.460 So 39 is the big majority government for the liberals. And that is what they're pulling at now.
00:13:06.360 Remarkably, the conservatives are also pulling at 39. So polling higher than they have at any point in
00:13:12.200 the last 10 years, or at any point on election day, higher than than the last 10 years. And yet,
00:13:17.880 they could still potentially lose the election. Walk us through that, please.
00:13:21.600 Sure. So our seat model, based on all these numbers has the liberals winning 175 seats,
00:13:28.480 the conservatives 130, Black Québécois at 32, NDP at four, and Greens at two. So this would actually,
00:13:35.780 despite both being tied at 39, result in a liberal majority government. And the reason for that is
00:13:43.700 the complete collapse of the NDP. Jagmeet Singh is not even going to win his seat in this model. And
00:13:50.020 even the public models, like what JP Fournier at 338 has, is saying the exact same thing. Like,
00:13:55.780 this is a very different election compared to anything we've ever seen before.
00:14:00.380 Wow. I mean, it's so it's so mind boggling, David, to imagine the conservatives could get 39% of the
00:14:06.540 votes, and still not even get, not even hold the liberals to a minority, that they could be 39%
00:14:13.020 in a liberal majority. I think there would be some kind of a revolt on our hands if that happens,
00:14:17.340 like conservative voters would be very unhappy, if that were the case. Let's go to the regions here,
00:14:22.620 because this is super interesting. At one point, I believe we had the Ontario had like a 10 point lead
00:14:27.980 for the liberals. They've all but closed that up. So let's let's walk through the different regions,
00:14:32.140 starting with Ontario. Actually, with Ontario, three weeks ago, we had it at a 14 point liberal
00:14:36.940 lead, then it was an eight point lead. And then it was last week, it was a four point lead. Now it is
00:14:42.060 a one point lead, we're seeing a major shift. And actually, when you look at the change from last week,
00:14:48.460 it's not that we're gaining support, it's that the liberals are losing support directly to the NDP
00:14:52.940 with these numbers. So the liberals would actually be down three points compared to last week,
00:14:56.220 with the NDP up two, and the Greens up one as well. On to Quebec, this is also very interesting,
00:15:02.540 the conservatives would be at 25%, liberals at 34%, and the Bloc Québécois at 34%. So this
00:15:09.180 actually represents compared to last week, a six point increase for the conservatives. This is
00:15:15.420 actually quite a substantial change, minus one and minus one for Bloc Québécois and liberals,
00:15:22.460 respectively. But we also see a decline in the other like third parties, which is actually what's
00:15:28.860 bolstering the conservative rise. The other region that we're actually seeing some some significant
00:15:35.020 movement in is actually Atlantic Canada, where the liberals would today get 51% of the vote,
00:15:41.740 conservatives 33% and the NDP get 11%. Now the change in that is the conservatives actually gained
00:15:47.100 six points compared to this time last week, and the liberals would lose four, and the Greens would
00:15:52.620 actually lose three. Would that still be a liberal sweep of Atlantic Canada? Or would that mean that
00:15:58.380 the conservatives would possibly pick up seats in that region? So in Atlantic Canada, this would actually
00:16:04.060 result in seven seats, which would actually be the status quo for the conservatives. Okay, let's move on
00:16:08.700 to the Prairies and BC. So in the Prairies, we're seeing the conservatives sit at 30, sorry, at 54%,
00:16:17.900 the liberals at 33, and the NDP at eight. So this change actually shows four point gain for the liberals
00:16:25.500 and a one point decline for for the conservatives. Also, other parties are down by three points as well.
00:16:32.780 And in British Columbia, we're seeing the liberals take the lead with 40% of the vote,
00:16:38.620 uh, conservatives getting 36 and NDP getting 15. Now the change here is the liberals actually gain
00:16:45.100 seven, the NDP lose seven, and the conservatives lose three based on this. Interesting. It's interesting
00:16:51.100 because I have seen some regional polls. There's not a lot of riding polls that come out during elections,
00:16:55.500 probably because the sample size is so small, so hard to get those accurate. I'm talking about
00:17:00.060 Vancouver Island North, I think Powell River is the name of the riding. It's where our friend Aaron
00:17:04.700 Gunn is the conservative candidate. There have been heavy efforts to cancel Aaron Gunn for taking
00:17:10.460 rather mainstream positions in like defending Sir John A. Macdonald, the founding prime minister of
00:17:14.620 our country. And yet, despite the attempts to cancel him, I've seen a poll, I think that has him
00:17:19.740 polling above 50% in his riding. So if there is silver lining on this campaign, even if the conservatives
00:17:26.220 don't form a government, I think that having really strong new MPs, people like Aaron Gunn,
00:17:32.060 but like Andrew Lawton, who used to work at True North and, uh, is a long time independent journalist,
00:17:37.260 it looks like he's going to win his riding as well. So that might be a bit of silver lining. Okay. I want
00:17:42.780 to talk about the two, uh, other questions that we asked in this poll. Uh, the first was on the debate
00:17:49.100 and whether or not it had an impact at all. So let me just go through what we found. So 27% of
00:17:55.740 people said that they supported a party before the debate, that they watched the debate, the debate
00:18:01.180 had no impact on their support. So they were going in a conservative, watch the debate, still support
00:18:05.820 Pierre Polyev, still going to vote Pierre Polyev. Uh, 25% of people said that they supported a party
00:18:12.780 before the debate and that the debate made them increase their support for their own party. So again,
00:18:17.340 that would be like, I like conservatives. I thought Pierre did great. I'm even more likely to go vote for
00:18:21.820 the conservatives. Um, this is where it gets interesting though. 3% of people said that
00:18:26.140 they supported a party before the debates and the debates made them change their support and another
00:18:30.940 3% so that they were undecided before the debates and that the debates made them choose which party
00:18:36.460 that they supported. And then 6%, uh, or sorry, 32% said they didn't watch the debate at all. So that might
00:18:41.980 seem like really small and insignificant 3%, 3%. But when an election is this close, like 3% will shift the
00:18:50.940 entire campaign. We'll shift the entire campaign. Well, you, one party could win a majority or
00:18:56.460 minority based on a shift of just 3%. So really, really kind of telling in my perspective, what did,
00:19:01.980 what did you think of that question and those responses? I think it's also important to,
00:19:05.580 uh, if we grant, if we zoom in on this on like a gender and age lens as well, I think it's also
00:19:10.540 important to say that that 3% actually, uh, grows, uh, especially among young people. You see them going in
00:19:17.980 and you're there, they have an opinion about what, uh, party they support. They watch the debate,
00:19:22.540 they either switch their vote or, uh, they become, uh, undecided. So regardless of what the actual end
00:19:29.100 outcome is, they're getting pride away from the existing, uh, from the existing party that they
00:19:35.740 supported. And this is also interesting because if you actually compare that to ballot for males between
00:19:40.380 the ages of 1834, compared to last week, we saw a 10 point decrease in support for the liberals,
00:19:45.980 which would back this up, uh, for females 18 to 34, we see a 2% decrease for the liberals, also a
00:19:53.420 2% decrease for the NDP as well. Uh, it's also notable for the males 18 to 34, that the, that the
00:20:00.940 conservatives and the NDP both increase three for the conservatives and four for the NDP and all that.
00:20:07.260 Well, that's interesting. I think that that really just goes to show that it, you know, even though
00:20:11.420 the debates did happen late, I wish that they'd happen sooner. I wish that there was more debates.
00:20:14.620 There should have been like five or six. They should have let the independent media
00:20:17.100 have our own debate. Then they wouldn't have had to complain about the fact that we got to ask
00:20:20.380 questions at the leaders, uh, commission, the, the government one. But I think that, you know,
00:20:26.860 this election is really being fought at those small margins. And I think, I think it did have an impact.
00:20:32.140 Okay. Final question for you here, David, let's talk about our neighbor poll. I'm so glad we did this.
00:20:36.300 This is one of the things that Juno news did. I don't think I saw any other pollsters, uh, doing this
00:20:41.020 campaign. And if it turns out that the conservatives do win this election or perform above expectations,
00:20:49.340 I think that we can really point to our neighbor poll to show how we were able to put our finger
00:20:54.300 on something that no other polling company or no other media outlet in the country was able to do.
00:20:58.620 So why don't you walk us through the final neighbor poll? Sure. So net of those that said
00:21:04.380 they don't know how their neighbors are voting. We found that the top line, 40% are supporting the,
00:21:09.900 believe their neighbors are supporting the conservatives. 38 believe their neighbors
00:21:13.100 are supporting the liberals and 11% believe that their neighbors are supporting the new Democrats.
00:21:18.860 Wow. So again, this, this shows like people in their neighborhood, people like what, what kind of
00:21:23.740 signs are you seeing? What are people saying when you bump into them at school pickup or a school drop
00:21:28.220 off or when, you know, around the water cooler at work or wherever it happens? I think this does really
00:21:33.340 show that there are more people interested in voting for the conservative than the polls pick
00:21:38.780 up on. What do you think? Yeah, I think that that's a very fair assessment. It's also interesting
00:21:43.260 when you break this down, like in the region that actually moved the most out of all of this is
00:21:47.660 actually British Columbia, because the difference remember in the ballot question, we actually had
00:21:52.540 the liberals leading the conservatives. When you ask the neighbor question, 44% of British Columbians
00:21:59.100 believe that their neighbors are voting for the conservatives compared to 30 for the liberals and
00:22:03.180 22 for the new Democrats. What's also very interesting is also when you break out the
00:22:08.540 prairies as well. So that like the original ballot question was 54% for the conservatives. However,
00:22:18.220 that shoots up to 65% in the prairies when they ask about their neighbor compared to 22% for the liberals
00:22:25.580 and 10% for the NDP. So interesting. Okay. Well, David, we have one final interview that we're going to do
00:22:31.980 later this week where we are going to go through and this is going to be like nerding out really
00:22:37.340 like for the data nerds and the people who really like to do these kind of election predictions. We're
00:22:45.260 going to talk about the specific writings that Polyev needs to win. Like, what would it look like? Where in
00:22:50.380 the country are their final efforts going? Which are the writings that will determine election? And it'll be a very good
00:22:57.420 guide for anyone who plans to watch the election night. I'm going to plug our election live stream
00:23:02.300 on election night. Don't watch the CBC election night. Don't give them your eyeballs. Don't watch
00:23:06.860 the CTV or global. They're all biased. They all hate conservatives. Watch us on YouTube. Myself,
00:23:12.540 Kim Bexie, we have lots of special guests. We're never on decision desk. We're going to have a lot of
00:23:16.940 production value there. So I want to talk about the writings to watch like early in the night,
00:23:22.300 how we know which directions is going, when the polls close in Atlantic Canada,
00:23:26.380 which seats are we going to be looking at? We're going to go through that all. So watch out for
00:23:30.380 that later in the week. And I do hope that you will join us for election night. It's going to be a lot
00:23:34.140 of fun as well. All right, David Murray, thanks so much for joining us. I look forward to our final talk
00:23:38.780 later in the week. Take care. All right, folks, that's all the time we have for today. We'll be back
00:23:43.500 again tomorrow with all the news. I'm Candace Malcolm's The Candace Malcolm Show. Thank you and God bless.
00:23:51.660 We'll be right back.