Juno News - February 09, 2026


Carney and Ford CAUGHT plotting an early election

Mentioned
Mark Carney Doug Ford Dan Knight Knight Hey Pierre Poilievre Pierre Pauly Donald Trump Trudeau Angus Reid Institute Sean Fraser Scott Moe Problem Maduro Cardi Anita
Carney STILL can’t get food prices under control Liberal MP calls Trump a Nazi and Trump threatens to close the border

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18 minutes

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3,204

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188

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

More signs point to a spring election in Canada, despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's insistence there is no plans for one. We talk to Dan Knight, an independent journalist and author of The Opposition, about the possibility of an election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 More signs pointing to a spring election in Canada, despite the Prime Minister's insistence
00:00:10.180 there are no plans to call one. This headline in the Globe and Mail, Kearney-Ford discussed
00:00:15.940 idea of an early federal election to secure majority, sources say. According to the story,
00:00:23.160 Premier Ford and Prime Minister Kearney had casual discussions about the need for an election.
00:00:28.260 The paper quotes unnamed sources as saying the progressive conservative premier, who has forged
00:00:35.120 a close relationship with the liberal leader, offered his opinion that the country needs economic
00:00:40.820 stability. Also, this story in Juno News report claims Ford privately urged Kearney to hold spring
00:00:49.180 election. Conservatives are reportedly pushing early nominations, and some MPs are even looking
00:00:57.000 at renting campaign offices. It was only last April Canadian voters rejected Kearney's bid
00:01:03.640 for a majority government. This party is two seats shy, and its repeated attempts to gain
00:01:09.760 that majority by luring MPs from other parties to cross the floor have so far failed. There
00:01:16.760 is also word the government has ordered election supplies. Black Locks reporter says Elections
00:01:22.960 Canada is placing orders for 700,000 poll tally sheets and other balloting supplies to get ready
00:01:30.980 for the next campaign. So why the need for an election so close to the last one? Well, one
00:01:36.840 possible reason may be Kearney's ongoing financial ties to Brookfield Asset Management. The Ethics
00:01:43.740 Committee has pushed for Kearney to sell off an estimated $10 million in Brookfield stock holdings. The PM clearly doesn't want to do that.
00:01:52.940 A liberal majority would almost certainly end the committee's work on Kearney's possible conflict of interest related to his former employer.
00:02:02.940 Our guest today is Dan Knight, who joins us from Vancouver. He's an independent journalist and author of The Opposition with Dan Knight. Welcome, Dan.
00:02:10.940 Dan Knight Knight Hey, Mark. Good to finally meet you in person.
00:02:14.940 We get to do this face to face. Yeah. Let's talk a little bit about Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario,
00:02:21.940 and Prime Minister Kearney chit-chatting about the possibility of an election. I mean, why would the Prime Minister talk to the Premier of Ontario, who's not even of his party, about the possibility of an election?
00:02:37.940 Well, Mark, I mean, there's a couple things with that. I mean, Mark Kearney largely won the last election based on Ontario.
00:02:45.940 Last election, the liberals, the federal liberals, they ran a campaign on fear.
00:02:55.940 You know, you're going to lose public, we're going to have public service cuts if Pierre is elected.
00:03:00.940 Pierre is going to bend the knee to Mark Kearney and Mark Kearney is going to get the best deal.
00:03:06.940 Trump, right? Bend the knee to Trump.
00:03:10.940 Bend the knee to Trump and get the best deal for, you know, best trade deal from America.
00:03:14.940 They're our largest trading partner. We do, I think, 87% of our trade through the United States.
00:03:20.940 So it makes a lot of sense that they would be talking. The issue being right now is that Mark Kearney hasn't gotten a deal.
00:03:28.940 I don't know if you saw the last labor force job numbers, but we had about, I think it was 57,000 jobs lost in Ontario.
00:03:39.940 You know, it's a huge number. So, I mean, they're bleeding jobs as we speak.
00:03:44.940 I mean, Mark Kearney went to, he's desperate to make a deal. He went to China.
00:03:48.940 He made a deal with Z to bring in EVs into Canada.
00:03:56.940 Problem is that number represents about 50% of our EV market.
00:04:00.940 And right now, as we have, you know, layoff after layoff in Ontario over the manufacturing sector, we now have these EVs being brought in.
00:04:12.940 I don't know if you saw that when they did the trade delegate, Doug Ford was like, why wasn't I there?
00:04:17.940 Why didn't I get to widen up? Why wasn't I speaking about, you know, our manufacturing sector?
00:04:23.940 It's all good for Saskatchewan. And I mean, let's be clear, this is a self-imposed tariff deal.
00:04:28.940 You know, I mean, they imposed tariff deals under Trudeau or not tariff deals, but they imposed EV tariffs on Chinese imports under Trudeau.
00:04:37.940 And the Chinese China retaliated by putting retaliatory tariffs on Saskatchewan canola and products like that.
00:04:47.940 And as a result, Saskatchewan's kind of had a loss.
00:04:51.940 If you go talk to anyone in Saskatchewan, the canola market right now is like, they're barely making a profit.
00:04:57.940 Product's moving, but there's no profit being made in like their crops.
00:05:03.940 So Scott Moe has been clamoring on the federal government to make a deal.
00:05:08.940 So Doug Ford and Carney are kind of, they see an opportunity.
00:05:16.940 I mean, if you saw, if you saw Mark Carney's Davos speech, you know, he spoke about the New World Order.
00:05:23.940 He got a bump in popularity.
00:05:26.940 His current polling is the highest we've seen it, about 60%.
00:05:31.940 So looking at that number and looking at Pierre Polyev's numbers, they're kind of hedging whether or not they should, they should, they should.
00:05:42.940 The polls can evaporate.
00:05:44.940 Those kind of, I think one poll that I saw had him up to like 47% or something like that, which is very high in Canada.
00:05:52.940 I mean, so that suggests at least among a certain segment of the demographic, namely the boomers, you know, they still like him, despite the ongoing failures of his economic policies.
00:06:04.940 And the fact that he did not come through on his promise to get a deal, a victorious deal with Trump by last July the 21st.
00:06:13.940 So it's a bit perplexing, the fact that his numbers are as high as they are.
00:06:19.940 But is this just really about trying to capitalize on these polls that suggest that he could win, if you believe some of them, a super majority?
00:06:30.940 I'm not sure I believe that at all, but is this simply a way to, for them to say, well, poll numbers have us, you know, at a, at least a majority level.
00:06:42.940 So let's go for it.
00:06:43.940 Is that what it's about?
00:06:44.940 Well, I would think it's, it's probably two things.
00:06:46.940 I mean, you've got to look at what are the source of the letter or the source of the information, the Globe and Mail.
00:06:50.940 Globe and Mail is notorious for having insider information.
00:06:53.940 The liberals leak information to the Globe and Mail all the time.
00:06:56.940 We've seen that time and time again.
00:06:57.940 So when, when you read that article about the Globe and Mail, it says unnamed sources.
00:07:02.940 So what the liberal government's actually doing is they're trying to bang the drum, trying to see, they're kind of testing the waters.
00:07:10.940 And the reason why I would say that is, is if you look at like their LinkedIn report and, you know, like right now you, you look at a report and says Mark Carney and Doug Ford, they've discussed the idea.
00:07:22.940 They have had a casual conversations for us to say that phrasing matters because it gives everyone, you know, in that sphere and escape hatch.
00:07:31.940 Carney's office can say truthfully, we're not going to the polls while letting the political ecosystem do what it wants to do.
00:07:38.940 You know, float trial balloons and watch the reactions and measure the blowback.
00:07:43.940 The Ford angle is a bit of a tell though, Mark, because Ford isn't a liberal brass and he's not the campaign office and he's not endorsing anyone here.
00:07:51.940 He's a premier who knows exactly how elections work.
00:07:54.940 And more importantly, he knows how Southern Ontario works.
00:07:58.940 When someone like Ford tells, you know, federal leader an election opportunity to secure majority, he's not sharing philosophical insight.
00:08:07.940 He's describing a tactical window, Mark, and he's doing it from the one province.
00:08:12.940 He's doing it for the province that gets to decide the next election.
00:08:15.940 And that story also lines up with a number of things the liberals have been doing lately.
00:08:20.940 If you've been sitting in the PMO and you've been tracking what they've been doing, you know, you look at the amount of polling you've had.
00:08:33.940 And we've just talked about the polling, obviously, but Angus Reid Institute, they published late January numbers showing liberals and conservatives close intention.
00:08:42.940 They're basically neck and neck.
00:08:44.940 And what that kind of means at that point, Mark, is if you look at like what they've been doing, like behind the scenes.
00:08:53.940 You know, if we look at that Black Locks report that came out today, Elections Canada is ordering bulk quantities of paperwork and getting election ready.
00:09:05.940 So I'm glad you've got Mark Carney saying no election.
00:09:08.940 We have no intention of calling a snap in action.
00:09:10.940 And then you've got all of the stuff going on behind them.
00:09:13.940 So to your point, you know, Elections Canada preparing, buying supplies.
00:09:19.940 You've got Conservative Party members going out and looking for campaign space.
00:09:25.940 And you've got this other story about the fact that the two of them were chit chatting about the prospect of an election.
00:09:32.940 Everybody seems to be looking at the month of May.
00:09:35.940 What are you hearing out in British Columbia?
00:09:37.940 Well, I've been talking to a lot of my real estate guys.
00:09:41.940 They haven't heard any office space being bought up.
00:09:44.940 But that doesn't mean that they're not doing.
00:09:46.940 I mean, we just have to look at towards like right now, if you look at the Liberal numbers in terms of what they're they're the Liberals and what they're doing with their with their EDAs, they're doing they're getting election ready for April.
00:10:00.940 So they're going to have everything, all of their ridings ready to go for April.
00:10:05.940 So that doesn't necessarily mean there's election, but they are having all of their staff, all of their candidates ready to go and elected April on.
00:10:15.940 Does that signal that the does that signal that there's going to be election?
00:10:19.940 No, but when we put all the pieces together, when we see like the Globe and Mail, and especially when we see sources being a signal from insiders, it makes a lot of sense.
00:10:28.940 And again, when we see Blacklock saying like, well, Elections Canada is is getting about 700,000 documents or pages ready for for mail ballots kind of signals that maybe we are going to get an election ready.
00:10:41.940 If we went to the beat, if we went to, you went to or we're paying attention to the Conservative Party Canada Convention that went on last month, you they would be telling you that there's going to be an election election this spring, everyone in that in that in convention center in Calgary, there's going to be election, they are ready.
00:10:59.940 They they were ready, they said that they have a war chest, they said that they've been out funding the Liberals about two to one, and that they're the Liberals best year doesn't account for the Conservatives best quarter.
00:11:12.940 But you know, that doesn't mean that the Liberals don't have mechanisms at their hand.
00:11:16.940 I mean, obviously, we know that they have taxpayer funds behind them, they're not going to tell you that they have taxpayer funds behind you, but they do.
00:11:23.940 They have the CBC, which is, I don't know if you caught that report a couple months ago, where they, I think it was Sean Fraser that was saying that that's, that's how we're going to promote social cohesion within the country.
00:11:36.940 Cohesion, yeah.
00:11:37.940 So, you know, it's, it's kind of, it's, it's, it's, it's, I don't understand how we have a mech or a body, which, I don't know how we have such a, like, it's $1.4 billion that go to the CBC.
00:11:52.940 And I don't understand how it's nothing less than the propaganda arm of the Liberal government or the Liberal Party.
00:11:59.940 Oh, I think everybody knows that. And it's, it's painful to watch it sometimes.
00:12:04.940 But let's, let's talk about the other elephant in the room, which is the USMCA slash CUSMA because of course the negotiations for that are supposed to happen, I think in the summer.
00:12:15.940 And so does that basically, is that a cloud over the coming campaign? Because you've had a failure by the Carney government to negotiate any kind of deal.
00:12:29.940 And that all important agreement now could potentially end up on the scrap heap, depending on what Donald Trump wants.
00:12:38.940 He, he's going for the best possible deal for the United States, but he's on record as saying he doesn't really need it.
00:12:45.940 He said he knows we need it. He doesn't need it. And so is it possible they'll want to get an election in before negotiations start?
00:12:54.940 Is, is that, is that something that maybe is lingering on the minds of the powers that be heading into the spring?
00:13:02.940 I would think so, Mark. I mean, and a couple of reasons why, I mean, again, we, we, we touched a little bit about, you know, the fear campaign, the Liberal government ran last, last year.
00:13:13.940 They ran the, that Pierre Pauly would bend the knee to Trump. I mean, and what, what actually happened is Mark Carney bent the knee to Z.
00:13:23.940 But he, he won't be able to run that, that, that, that same, that same playbook this election cycle.
00:13:30.940 Let's just say he does pull the pin on pulling a spring election. Let's just say that that's, that's what's coming.
00:13:35.940 And a lot of people saying it is, let's just say that is, that is what happens.
00:13:38.940 Well, there's two things that they're not going to be able to do this, this election.
00:13:42.940 They're not going to be able to run, run on public service cuts that conservatives are going to run on public service cuts.
00:13:48.940 We've already seen the signal that there's 10,000 mass layoffs with 30,000 layoffs potentially coming down the road.
00:13:55.940 So the public service Alliance of Canada, they ran a lot of attack ads against Pierre Pauly last election saying, don't vote for him.
00:14:07.940 He's going to cut our, he's going to cut public service. And why did they, and let's be clear on what Pierre Pauly was cutting up or was going after.
00:14:15.940 He was going after we're going to cut the bureaucracy and we're going to cut consultants. And what the federal liberals did is they use that as a wedge issue.
00:14:26.940 They use that as well. They say, they said, he said the word cut. What does that mean? Didn't really mean they, they didn't, it didn't have to mean public service cuts.
00:14:35.940 It didn't mean have to mean bureaucracy, these consultants like Deloitte.
00:14:42.940 Oh yeah, absolutely.
00:14:44.940 So they ran, they ran on a campaign of, of fear. Now they're not going to be able to run on that same playbook this, this election.
00:14:51.940 So going back to your question about what, what you said about, about why they would go and why they want to do it before they have a deal.
00:15:00.940 Well, if they have a deal before the election, they can't run a fear campaign on Trump is bad because again, Trump, they'll have the deal.
00:15:09.940 So if I were going to, if I were going to be in the liberal, if I was in Mark Carney's shoes, I would definitely push on an election that goes before the deal.
00:15:18.940 I would push on that push on a push on loss aversion on, on, um, excuse me, I would put a push a loss aversion on loss of sovereignty because now we we've seen Trump signaling on, uh, going after Greenland and the attack on Venezuela.
00:15:37.940 Now I know that the Venezuela has been, it been had mixed reaction.
00:15:40.940 I think it's been a good thing.
00:15:41.940 I think that there was that, um, that he had no business.
00:15:44.940 Uh, he was, yeah, exactly. 0.72
00:15:48.940 Maduro was obviously, you know, he was obviously a drug, like a, you say he was the president, but he was obviously just a, like a high, highly paid drug question. 0.70
00:15:59.940 He was using the country.
00:16:01.940 No, Dan, before we go, because I only have a few minutes, I've got to ask you about this other possibility here.
00:16:07.940 As you know, right now, the committees are kind of in the hands of the opposition parties.
00:16:12.940 We're talking about the block and the Tories who seem to be able to outvote the liberals.
00:16:18.940 There's no NDP around to back the liberals in committee anymore, cause they don't even qualify as a, as a party.
00:16:25.940 But you've had the ethics committee push for Carney to sell off an estimated $10 million in Brookfield stock holdings.
00:16:32.940 Uh, Cardi has pushed back on the need to do that.
00:16:37.940 He obviously doesn't want to do it.
00:16:39.940 Uh, there hasn't been a direct order for him to do that yet, but the committee is clearly moving in that direction.
00:16:45.940 I mean, isn't it possible that one of the reasons, I'm not saying the only reason, but one of the reasons is, is that you get a liberal majority.
00:16:52.940 Uh, you know, you get liberal control in those House of Commons committees, those parliamentary committees and end all the talk of Carney having to sell off his stocks in Brookfield.
00:17:05.940 What do you think of that?
00:17:06.940 Well, it's, it's definitely a possibility, Mark.
00:17:08.940 I think right now, anytime we, the, the liberals pass, like, absolutely.
00:17:12.940 I think that it could be a consideration.
00:17:14.940 I think that if, if the ethics committee is looking at conflicts of interest and their head, they're tightening up all the rules.
00:17:23.940 They're currently are looking at it and the conservatives in the block are able to push all of the recommendations forward and we'll be able to vote on all of those recommendations.
00:17:33.940 If, if when presented in bills.
00:17:36.940 Um, but it's even more than that, Mark, anytime that the, uh, conserve or the liberals pass a law, it goes through committee.
00:17:42.940 And right now the block and the, um, conservative party are able to filibuster, not necessarily filibuster, but they're able to poke all the holes into those bills.
00:17:52.940 Those bills are being passed C eight, um, the cyber security bill.
00:17:56.940 Um, they're able to talk about all of the, the, I mean, I'm right.
00:18:00.940 Last, last week we had Anita and say that we're going to cut veterans money.
00:18:04.940 Meanwhile, we're sending, you know, how many, how much money to Ukraine.
00:18:07.940 And this is very embarrassing for the liberal party.
00:18:11.940 Um, I'd imagine the liberal party would love to have a majority.
00:18:14.940 They would love to like shut down these, these committees because right now they're the only thing that's holding this government account.
00:18:20.940 It's certainly not the mainstream media.
00:18:22.940 It's definitely all these people.
00:18:24.940 Dan, thank you so much for coming on the show.
00:18:26.940 We really appreciate it.
00:18:27.940 No, thank you, Mark.
00:18:28.940 It's good to have you or thank you for having me.
00:18:30.940 Sorry.
00:18:31.940 Good to have you, my friend.
00:18:32.940 Author of the opposition with Dan.
00:18:34.940 I check it out on sub stack.
00:18:36.940 All right, my friends, if you enjoyed this show, consider supporting independent journalists, journalism by going to Juno news.com backslash straight up.
00:18:47.940 It helped us a lot.
00:18:49.940 Thank you.