More signs point to a spring election in Canada, despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's insistence there is no plans for one. We talk to Dan Knight, an independent journalist and author of The Opposition, about the possibility of an election.
00:00:00.000More signs pointing to a spring election in Canada, despite the Prime Minister's insistence
00:00:10.180there are no plans to call one. This headline in the Globe and Mail, Kearney-Ford discussed
00:00:15.940idea of an early federal election to secure majority, sources say. According to the story,
00:00:23.160Premier Ford and Prime Minister Kearney had casual discussions about the need for an election.
00:00:28.260The paper quotes unnamed sources as saying the progressive conservative premier, who has forged
00:00:35.120a close relationship with the liberal leader, offered his opinion that the country needs economic
00:00:40.820stability. Also, this story in Juno News report claims Ford privately urged Kearney to hold spring
00:00:49.180election. Conservatives are reportedly pushing early nominations, and some MPs are even looking
00:00:57.000at renting campaign offices. It was only last April Canadian voters rejected Kearney's bid
00:01:03.640for a majority government. This party is two seats shy, and its repeated attempts to gain
00:01:09.760that majority by luring MPs from other parties to cross the floor have so far failed. There
00:01:16.760is also word the government has ordered election supplies. Black Locks reporter says Elections
00:01:22.960Canada is placing orders for 700,000 poll tally sheets and other balloting supplies to get ready
00:01:30.980for the next campaign. So why the need for an election so close to the last one? Well, one
00:01:36.840possible reason may be Kearney's ongoing financial ties to Brookfield Asset Management. The Ethics
00:01:43.740Committee has pushed for Kearney to sell off an estimated $10 million in Brookfield stock holdings. The PM clearly doesn't want to do that.
00:01:52.940A liberal majority would almost certainly end the committee's work on Kearney's possible conflict of interest related to his former employer.
00:02:02.940Our guest today is Dan Knight, who joins us from Vancouver. He's an independent journalist and author of The Opposition with Dan Knight. Welcome, Dan.
00:02:10.940Dan Knight Knight Hey, Mark. Good to finally meet you in person.
00:02:14.940We get to do this face to face. Yeah. Let's talk a little bit about Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario,
00:02:21.940and Prime Minister Kearney chit-chatting about the possibility of an election. I mean, why would the Prime Minister talk to the Premier of Ontario, who's not even of his party, about the possibility of an election?
00:02:37.940Well, Mark, I mean, there's a couple things with that. I mean, Mark Kearney largely won the last election based on Ontario.
00:02:45.940Last election, the liberals, the federal liberals, they ran a campaign on fear.
00:02:55.940You know, you're going to lose public, we're going to have public service cuts if Pierre is elected.
00:03:00.940Pierre is going to bend the knee to Mark Kearney and Mark Kearney is going to get the best deal.
00:03:10.940Bend the knee to Trump and get the best deal for, you know, best trade deal from America.
00:03:14.940They're our largest trading partner. We do, I think, 87% of our trade through the United States.
00:03:20.940So it makes a lot of sense that they would be talking. The issue being right now is that Mark Kearney hasn't gotten a deal.
00:03:28.940I don't know if you saw the last labor force job numbers, but we had about, I think it was 57,000 jobs lost in Ontario.
00:03:39.940You know, it's a huge number. So, I mean, they're bleeding jobs as we speak.
00:03:44.940I mean, Mark Kearney went to, he's desperate to make a deal. He went to China.
00:03:48.940He made a deal with Z to bring in EVs into Canada.
00:03:56.940Problem is that number represents about 50% of our EV market.
00:04:00.940And right now, as we have, you know, layoff after layoff in Ontario over the manufacturing sector, we now have these EVs being brought in.
00:04:12.940I don't know if you saw that when they did the trade delegate, Doug Ford was like, why wasn't I there?
00:04:17.940Why didn't I get to widen up? Why wasn't I speaking about, you know, our manufacturing sector?
00:04:23.940It's all good for Saskatchewan. And I mean, let's be clear, this is a self-imposed tariff deal.
00:04:28.940You know, I mean, they imposed tariff deals under Trudeau or not tariff deals, but they imposed EV tariffs on Chinese imports under Trudeau.
00:04:37.940And the Chinese China retaliated by putting retaliatory tariffs on Saskatchewan canola and products like that.
00:04:47.940And as a result, Saskatchewan's kind of had a loss.
00:04:51.940If you go talk to anyone in Saskatchewan, the canola market right now is like, they're barely making a profit.
00:04:57.940Product's moving, but there's no profit being made in like their crops.
00:05:03.940So Scott Moe has been clamoring on the federal government to make a deal.
00:05:08.940So Doug Ford and Carney are kind of, they see an opportunity.
00:05:16.940I mean, if you saw, if you saw Mark Carney's Davos speech, you know, he spoke about the New World Order.
00:05:26.940His current polling is the highest we've seen it, about 60%.
00:05:31.940So looking at that number and looking at Pierre Polyev's numbers, they're kind of hedging whether or not they should, they should, they should.
00:05:44.940Those kind of, I think one poll that I saw had him up to like 47% or something like that, which is very high in Canada.
00:05:52.940I mean, so that suggests at least among a certain segment of the demographic, namely the boomers, you know, they still like him, despite the ongoing failures of his economic policies.
00:06:04.940And the fact that he did not come through on his promise to get a deal, a victorious deal with Trump by last July the 21st.
00:06:13.940So it's a bit perplexing, the fact that his numbers are as high as they are.
00:06:19.940But is this just really about trying to capitalize on these polls that suggest that he could win, if you believe some of them, a super majority?
00:06:30.940I'm not sure I believe that at all, but is this simply a way to, for them to say, well, poll numbers have us, you know, at a, at least a majority level.
00:06:57.940So when, when you read that article about the Globe and Mail, it says unnamed sources.
00:07:02.940So what the liberal government's actually doing is they're trying to bang the drum, trying to see, they're kind of testing the waters.
00:07:10.940And the reason why I would say that is, is if you look at like their LinkedIn report and, you know, like right now you, you look at a report and says Mark Carney and Doug Ford, they've discussed the idea.
00:07:22.940They have had a casual conversations for us to say that phrasing matters because it gives everyone, you know, in that sphere and escape hatch.
00:07:31.940Carney's office can say truthfully, we're not going to the polls while letting the political ecosystem do what it wants to do.
00:07:38.940You know, float trial balloons and watch the reactions and measure the blowback.
00:07:43.940The Ford angle is a bit of a tell though, Mark, because Ford isn't a liberal brass and he's not the campaign office and he's not endorsing anyone here.
00:07:51.940He's a premier who knows exactly how elections work.
00:07:54.940And more importantly, he knows how Southern Ontario works.
00:07:58.940When someone like Ford tells, you know, federal leader an election opportunity to secure majority, he's not sharing philosophical insight.
00:08:07.940He's describing a tactical window, Mark, and he's doing it from the one province.
00:08:12.940He's doing it for the province that gets to decide the next election.
00:08:15.940And that story also lines up with a number of things the liberals have been doing lately.
00:08:20.940If you've been sitting in the PMO and you've been tracking what they've been doing, you know, you look at the amount of polling you've had.
00:08:33.940And we've just talked about the polling, obviously, but Angus Reid Institute, they published late January numbers showing liberals and conservatives close intention.
00:08:44.940And what that kind of means at that point, Mark, is if you look at like what they've been doing, like behind the scenes.
00:08:53.940You know, if we look at that Black Locks report that came out today, Elections Canada is ordering bulk quantities of paperwork and getting election ready.
00:09:05.940So I'm glad you've got Mark Carney saying no election.
00:09:08.940We have no intention of calling a snap in action.
00:09:10.940And then you've got all of the stuff going on behind them.
00:09:13.940So to your point, you know, Elections Canada preparing, buying supplies.
00:09:19.940You've got Conservative Party members going out and looking for campaign space.
00:09:25.940And you've got this other story about the fact that the two of them were chit chatting about the prospect of an election.
00:09:32.940Everybody seems to be looking at the month of May.
00:09:35.940What are you hearing out in British Columbia?
00:09:37.940Well, I've been talking to a lot of my real estate guys.
00:09:41.940They haven't heard any office space being bought up.
00:09:44.940But that doesn't mean that they're not doing.
00:09:46.940I mean, we just have to look at towards like right now, if you look at the Liberal numbers in terms of what they're they're the Liberals and what they're doing with their with their EDAs, they're doing they're getting election ready for April.
00:10:00.940So they're going to have everything, all of their ridings ready to go for April.
00:10:05.940So that doesn't necessarily mean there's election, but they are having all of their staff, all of their candidates ready to go and elected April on.
00:10:15.940Does that signal that the does that signal that there's going to be election?
00:10:19.940No, but when we put all the pieces together, when we see like the Globe and Mail, and especially when we see sources being a signal from insiders, it makes a lot of sense.
00:10:28.940And again, when we see Blacklock saying like, well, Elections Canada is is getting about 700,000 documents or pages ready for for mail ballots kind of signals that maybe we are going to get an election ready.
00:10:41.940If we went to the beat, if we went to, you went to or we're paying attention to the Conservative Party Canada Convention that went on last month, you they would be telling you that there's going to be an election election this spring, everyone in that in that in convention center in Calgary, there's going to be election, they are ready.
00:10:59.940They they were ready, they said that they have a war chest, they said that they've been out funding the Liberals about two to one, and that they're the Liberals best year doesn't account for the Conservatives best quarter.
00:11:12.940But you know, that doesn't mean that the Liberals don't have mechanisms at their hand.
00:11:16.940I mean, obviously, we know that they have taxpayer funds behind them, they're not going to tell you that they have taxpayer funds behind you, but they do.
00:11:23.940They have the CBC, which is, I don't know if you caught that report a couple months ago, where they, I think it was Sean Fraser that was saying that that's, that's how we're going to promote social cohesion within the country.
00:11:37.940So, you know, it's, it's kind of, it's, it's, it's, it's, I don't understand how we have a mech or a body, which, I don't know how we have such a, like, it's $1.4 billion that go to the CBC.
00:11:52.940And I don't understand how it's nothing less than the propaganda arm of the Liberal government or the Liberal Party.
00:11:59.940Oh, I think everybody knows that. And it's, it's painful to watch it sometimes.
00:12:04.940But let's, let's talk about the other elephant in the room, which is the USMCA slash CUSMA because of course the negotiations for that are supposed to happen, I think in the summer.
00:12:15.940And so does that basically, is that a cloud over the coming campaign? Because you've had a failure by the Carney government to negotiate any kind of deal.
00:12:29.940And that all important agreement now could potentially end up on the scrap heap, depending on what Donald Trump wants.
00:12:38.940He, he's going for the best possible deal for the United States, but he's on record as saying he doesn't really need it.
00:12:45.940He said he knows we need it. He doesn't need it. And so is it possible they'll want to get an election in before negotiations start?
00:12:54.940Is, is that, is that something that maybe is lingering on the minds of the powers that be heading into the spring?
00:13:02.940I would think so, Mark. I mean, and a couple of reasons why, I mean, again, we, we, we touched a little bit about, you know, the fear campaign, the Liberal government ran last, last year.
00:13:13.940They ran the, that Pierre Pauly would bend the knee to Trump. I mean, and what, what actually happened is Mark Carney bent the knee to Z.
00:13:23.940But he, he won't be able to run that, that, that, that same, that same playbook this election cycle.
00:13:30.940Let's just say he does pull the pin on pulling a spring election. Let's just say that that's, that's what's coming.
00:13:35.940And a lot of people saying it is, let's just say that is, that is what happens.
00:13:38.940Well, there's two things that they're not going to be able to do this, this election.
00:13:42.940They're not going to be able to run, run on public service cuts that conservatives are going to run on public service cuts.
00:13:48.940We've already seen the signal that there's 10,000 mass layoffs with 30,000 layoffs potentially coming down the road.
00:13:55.940So the public service Alliance of Canada, they ran a lot of attack ads against Pierre Pauly last election saying, don't vote for him.
00:14:07.940He's going to cut our, he's going to cut public service. And why did they, and let's be clear on what Pierre Pauly was cutting up or was going after.
00:14:15.940He was going after we're going to cut the bureaucracy and we're going to cut consultants. And what the federal liberals did is they use that as a wedge issue.
00:14:26.940They use that as well. They say, they said, he said the word cut. What does that mean? Didn't really mean they, they didn't, it didn't have to mean public service cuts.
00:14:35.940It didn't mean have to mean bureaucracy, these consultants like Deloitte.
00:14:44.940So they ran, they ran on a campaign of, of fear. Now they're not going to be able to run on that same playbook this, this election.
00:14:51.940So going back to your question about what, what you said about, about why they would go and why they want to do it before they have a deal.
00:15:00.940Well, if they have a deal before the election, they can't run a fear campaign on Trump is bad because again, Trump, they'll have the deal.
00:15:09.940So if I were going to, if I were going to be in the liberal, if I was in Mark Carney's shoes, I would definitely push on an election that goes before the deal.
00:15:18.940I would push on that push on a push on loss aversion on, on, um, excuse me, I would put a push a loss aversion on loss of sovereignty because now we we've seen Trump signaling on, uh, going after Greenland and the attack on Venezuela.
00:15:37.940Now I know that the Venezuela has been, it been had mixed reaction.
00:15:48.940Maduro was obviously, you know, he was obviously a drug, like a, you say he was the president, but he was obviously just a, like a high, highly paid drug question.
00:16:39.940Uh, there hasn't been a direct order for him to do that yet, but the committee is clearly moving in that direction.
00:16:45.940I mean, isn't it possible that one of the reasons, I'm not saying the only reason, but one of the reasons is, is that you get a liberal majority.
00:16:52.940Uh, you know, you get liberal control in those House of Commons committees, those parliamentary committees and end all the talk of Carney having to sell off his stocks in Brookfield.
00:17:06.940Well, it's, it's definitely a possibility, Mark.
00:17:08.940I think right now, anytime we, the, the liberals pass, like, absolutely.
00:17:12.940I think that it could be a consideration.
00:17:14.940I think that if, if the ethics committee is looking at conflicts of interest and their head, they're tightening up all the rules.
00:17:23.940They're currently are looking at it and the conservatives in the block are able to push all of the recommendations forward and we'll be able to vote on all of those recommendations.
00:17:36.940Um, but it's even more than that, Mark, anytime that the, uh, conserve or the liberals pass a law, it goes through committee.
00:17:42.940And right now the block and the, um, conservative party are able to filibuster, not necessarily filibuster, but they're able to poke all the holes into those bills.
00:17:52.940Those bills are being passed C eight, um, the cyber security bill.
00:17:56.940Um, they're able to talk about all of the, the, I mean, I'm right.
00:18:00.940Last, last week we had Anita and say that we're going to cut veterans money.
00:18:04.940Meanwhile, we're sending, you know, how many, how much money to Ukraine.
00:18:07.940And this is very embarrassing for the liberal party.
00:18:11.940Um, I'd imagine the liberal party would love to have a majority.
00:18:14.940They would love to like shut down these, these committees because right now they're the only thing that's holding this government account.
00:18:20.940It's certainly not the mainstream media.
00:18:36.940All right, my friends, if you enjoyed this show, consider supporting independent journalists, journalism by going to Juno news.com backslash straight up.