Juno News - Carney pauses cross-border bridge under U.S. pressure

00:00:00.000 it is the latest setback in canada's bumpy relationship with the united states

00:00:11.680 the gordy howe international bridge opening has been delayed indefinitely as the two countries

00:00:17.520 resolve some outstanding issues well at the at the request of the united states we agreed to

00:00:23.760 to delay the opening and take the necessary time to resolve outstanding issues.

00:00:31.960 There are a few issues that have been raised, and this is a collaborative approach.

00:00:36.120 As I said yesterday, there's not great drama here.

00:00:39.060 We're going to work through some issues that have come up.

00:00:44.740 And for a bridge that is going to be in place and serve Canadians, Americans, others for decades,

00:00:52.560 It's a question of a few weeks is time well spent.

00:00:56.160 President Trump has threatened to block the opening unless Canada makes concessions in trade talks, including on toll revenues.

00:01:04.320 While the possible end of Canada's free trade deal with the United States could undermine Canadian unity,

00:01:10.980 recent comments by President Trump, coupled with the failure of Premier Doug Ford's trade mission to Washington,

00:01:17.360 has cast doubt over the future of the KUSMA trade deal.

00:01:21.780 U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra

00:01:23.340 blames Canada for dragging its heels in trade talks.

00:01:27.780 We've invited Canada to be a partner

00:01:30.400 in expanding and growing

00:01:33.960 all of the areas that we cooperate in today.

00:01:40.000 Expanding parts of our economy,

00:01:42.160 agriculture, energy, transportation.

00:01:44.800 Yes, even autos, steel, aluminum, and defense.

00:01:48.500 I look forward to going through the negotiations on some of the issues that we're talking about.

00:01:54.440 We're waiting for Canada to respond.

00:01:56.760 But once Canada clearly outlines its direction and what it wants from the negotiations,

00:02:02.760 I think that we can do some great things together.

00:02:06.900 This post by Kirk Lubomov, interesting.

00:02:10.640 It turns out the U.S. has invited Canada to expand its cooperation,

00:02:14.460 but hasn't heard back yet on what it wants to do.

00:02:18.500 If the deal is not renewed, some say that might encourage more Albertans to support the independence movement,

00:02:26.940 allowing an independent Alberta to cut its own deal with the Trump administration.

00:02:36.960 Our guest today is Kirk Lubomov, business consultant and commentator coming to us from Calgary.

00:02:42.700 Welcome, Kirk.

00:02:43.800 How are you doing?

00:02:45.140 Excellent. Thank you.

00:02:46.160 Let's talk a little bit about Kuzma.

00:02:47.480 You've been tweeting about it, including your reaction to a clip by Pete Hoekstra, of course, the U.S. ambassador.

00:02:55.660 You said, interesting, it turns out the U.S. has invited Canada to expand its cooperation, but has not heard back yet on what it wants to do.

00:03:05.920 I think it surprised some people, including, I guess, yourself, who thought that really it was the United States that was holding things up.

00:03:13.640 But now, apparently, we find out that it was Canada, possibly, if you believe Hoekstra.

00:03:19.100 What do you make of that?

00:03:21.260 Well, there's obviously a lot of politics involved here in these negotiations and a lot of jabbing back and forth.

00:03:28.060 The interesting thing is that Canada's slogan went from elbows up to fortress North America.

00:03:35.600 So it's an interesting pivot, obviously, that the Liberals are leading and realizing that it is paramount for Canada to negotiate KUSMA and continue to deal and come to whatever agreements that are trade irritants that's holding us back from solidifying this deal and just moving on with it into 2036.

00:04:01.780 You know, the biggest risk with this deal is not specifically to withdrawal.

00:04:07.160 I don't think the withdrawal will happen, but it's that it will go to annual reviews.

00:04:12.640 And that creates so much uncertainty and so much risk that it will scare investment away.

00:04:19.300 And we don't want to do that.

00:04:21.280 And now we have the delay of the Gordie Howe International Bridge opening.

00:04:24.960 It's just another indicator of the rather bumpy relationship that we have with the Americans these days.

00:04:31.780 with this delay I guess being indefinite that President Trump in the past has threatened to

00:04:38.580 block the opening unless Canada makes certain concessions including even some on tolls any

00:04:45.240 thoughts about that yeah you know they're flexing what they can but there's also obviously a lot of 1.00

00:04:52.120 things in the background including security and safety let's just remember we just had an Islamic

00:04:58.200 terrorism attack on the u.s consulate and a canadian officer was just killed by uh by one

00:05:05.080 that's tied to it somewhat and this is some of the things that the u.s has been warning about

00:05:11.000 and we have done essentially nothing about it let's remember we supposed to have a border czar

00:05:15.800 of a sudden has anyone heard from him since that announcement i can't i can't tell you a single

00:05:23.720 thing that has done or anyone you know has said anything about that so there are obviously some

00:05:30.440 serious issues including steel continuous dumping of steel and aluminum into the united states from

00:05:37.640 canada a canadian company from brampton just was agreed to settle a fine essentially on bringing

00:05:46.200 in steel and aluminum and and other aspects uh from that industry into the united states there

00:05:52.600 were that they were originating from Asia, India, China, etc. But we're claiming it, it's local.

00:06:02.760 Yeah, you make a great point about the security issue. Maybe that's playing into President Trump's

00:06:09.720 decision to put this off or delay it. Because of course, we had the shots fired, as you know,

00:06:14.920 at the U.S. Embassy in Toronto, the consulate building on University Avenue. And then this

00:06:25.320 shooting of the police officer may have been tied to that, as I understand it. It's obviously still

00:06:29.920 under investigation. We don't know all the details. But maybe you're right. Maybe security

00:06:35.040 is one of those thorny issues that Trump wants dealt with before this bridge opens up. Isn't

00:06:43.620 that possible oh 100 you know we got the golden dome they were they were talking about canada

00:06:50.420 somewhat agreed to it uh he knows you know they're looking into greenland and arctic as a strategic

00:06:57.300 uh geography to secure north america and i think this is part of the liberal wake up of with this

00:07:05.780 new slogan of fortress north america that they're trying to come up with somehow the canada can

00:07:11.860 participate in that and creates more intertwined industries uh into defense sector with critical

00:07:18.740 minerals etc that will lead to that uh end goal of really securing securing uh north america not just

00:07:27.460 from a defense point of view but defending our supply chain which i think is just as paramount

00:07:33.060 as overall defense yeah i mean it is interesting we had doug ford who of course has been very vocal

00:07:40.740 in criticizing Trump, even on a personal level, attacking him on U.S. cable networks.

00:07:49.940 And then he goes down there, has the only reception that was planned for him canceled,

00:07:55.440 apparently under pressure from the White House.

00:07:58.380 Yeah, the U.S. commerce, business commerce.

00:08:00.700 Basically comes back with nothing, but I don't think he should be overly surprised by that.

00:08:05.220 And then to your point earlier about the change in attitude, not only by Ford,

00:08:10.020 but also by Carney, you know, it seems like maybe they took a look around and said, you know,

00:08:16.020 a lot of the relationships that we're trying to build with all these other countries

00:08:19.280 and all the other parts of the world, those are contingent on our continuing to have a trade deal

00:08:24.800 with the United States. It's not like, well, we're not going to be trading with the Americans

00:08:29.400 as much anymore. And so why don't we establish trade relations with people in Asia and Europe

00:08:36.740 and other areas of the world but a lot of those quote-unquote middle powers that Carney keeps

00:08:44.020 talking about in this new world order they only want to deal with Canada because of our trade deal

00:08:48.740 with the United States and so maybe it has dawned on them that it's absolutely critical that we get

00:08:54.280 this deal done with the Americans what do you think oh a hundred percent there there is really

00:08:59.700 two issues here one is for Canada to attract attract companies that build things and make

00:09:05.100 things they need to have access to the us the whole point of canada's geography is one is to

00:09:10.860 create a supply chain with value added manufacturing which would which is something

00:09:16.860 we should be doing but we're not doing and access it to the biggest market in the world nobody's

00:09:22.940 going to come and invest in canada because they want us you know sell a few units to a few canadian

00:09:29.260 companies it's completely irrelevant they could do that from anywhere else in the world and just

00:09:33.340 ship it over but the the whole strategic uh position point is to be able to access it

00:09:40.300 to the largest economy world and the other aspect of it as we try to pivot one of the hardest things

00:09:46.300 to explain to people is that we don't really manufacture things anymore our manufacturer

00:09:53.420 uh manufacturing industry share of our gdp used to be over 20 percent like 30 40 years ago now

00:10:00.060 it's around 10 so we make less and less things our productivity in that industry is dropping

00:10:07.740 and one of the hardest things about pivoting to other countries is that the average manufacturing

00:10:14.620 company in canada is very small so if you remove the big industries the continents such as oil and

00:10:20.940 gas uh the resources mining if you if we remove those things the average company is really small

00:10:27.180 it's around 40 employees or so so it's very hard for them to all of a sudden let's build things for

00:10:34.140 someone in uh you know in france or taiwan or something this a lot of them just don't have the

00:10:40.220 capital bandwidth to turn around on the dime as the government thought that would they would be

00:10:45.420 able to do and let's remember out of all the mous and all the trade deals that carney thinks he's

00:10:52.140 made or advertisers that he made there's only one binding one which is with indonesia and we it's a

00:10:58.780 really small one and we lended them a billion dollars so they can buy canadian products

00:11:07.100 wow he's quite the horse trader you know give the indonesians probably a forgivable loan

00:11:14.540 of a billion dollars so that they can buy our stuff i mean that's not much of a business model

00:11:21.740 that you can hang your hat on.

00:11:23.260 But I do want to ask you as well,

00:11:24.760 because you're so plugged into the venture capital world,

00:11:27.920 on the SpaceX IPO,

00:11:31.240 obviously huge news in the business community,

00:11:34.240 but I can't help but think how short-sighted it was

00:11:37.100 for Premier Ford to rip up that Starlink contract,

00:11:40.740 which was worth, I mean, comparatively, not a whole lot

00:11:44.380 when you look at the value of this company, $100 million.

00:11:48.280 But in retrospect, I mean, if we want to attract

00:11:51.320 business manufacturing into canada whether it's in from spacex or any other company that must

00:12:01.100 runs and operates that really that was not the smartest move what do you think no i mean doug

00:12:08.300 ford is you know is you know is essentially a big baby with the you know has with zero long-term 0.99

00:12:15.700 thinking is just the knee jerk reaction into emotional outbursts are absolutely ridiculous 0.95

00:12:20.900 in a for a person in his position running essentially the biggest province in canada 0.82

00:12:27.860 you know the first of all we don't even know how much that rip up of that satellite deal cost

00:12:33.700 canadians because it was a penalty how much it cost taxpayers the other thing is that

00:12:39.220 the starlink satellites they it's so much cheaper to run them and operate them than creating a

00:12:46.660 legacy infrastructure which is what the government is trying to do you know it's you can buy a 300

00:12:52.160 dish 400 dish and you have internet for you know your your basic subscription like anywhere else

00:12:58.380 instead of trying to spend billions of dollars of running cables and infrastructure across the

00:13:03.200 country. So it's a double whammy there. The other aspect of it is until Canada can actually

00:13:10.240 start launching satellites out of the little gravel port that they have in Nova Scotia,

00:13:18.840 SpaceX is still the satellite, the company will be launching our satellites. And it's the company

00:13:26.220 that will be launching our low orbit satellites until then, which is what the government has

00:13:31.100 handed out billions of dollars in subsidies too so it's uh it's it's so uh it's so short-sighted

00:13:38.540 from what he's done but also let's remember the spacex ipo is going to make the ontario teacher

00:13:44.780 pension fund which invested in it i think in 2019 they're going to make around 15 billion dollars

00:13:50.540 out of it they're going to it's it's equals to tens of thousands of dollars for every teacher

00:13:56.620 so they essentially guaranteed generational returns with that investment uh you know which

00:14:04.520 they vilify the same person you know anytime they get which is highly unfortunate and the other

00:14:13.160 thing is let's remember the space industry is just starting it's going to be a trillion dollar it's

00:14:18.920 already well with spacex it's already a trillion dollar industry by market cap but it's going to

00:14:23.880 a trillion dollar industry by revenue and operations in a few years so one of the highest fastest

00:14:30.520 growing industries we're attacking here in canada while we're trying to subsidize

00:14:36.120 you know a 20 million dollar gravel pit to to achieve us uh a foot into that industry

00:14:42.920 so we're really doing some really ludicrous political decisions here while we should be

00:14:49.320 partnering and building up as a with a relationship with the us with those companies

00:14:54.360 and try to bring as much of it here and offshoot as much as we can canada has quite a robust

00:15:02.040 technological sector that works with the space industry and it's all because nasa keeps approaching

00:15:08.360 us so we can't afford to lose one of the most competitive industries that we have right now in

00:15:13.960 the world. Yeah. And it just seems like we're on the outside looking in on so many of these

00:15:18.520 key industries to growth industries. I realized there's a lot of pushback and the data centers

00:15:24.120 and so forth, but early, you know, burning a bridge over what politics, you know, the idea

00:15:32.760 of elbows up and we got to look because Elon Musk is a friend of Trump's or we have to cancel that

00:15:40.800 contract and what we end up giving telsat all sorts of money yeah you know it's it's like a

00:15:47.280 daycare running like you know our institutions which is you know it's just so insane it's just 0.96

00:15:53.780 so stupid i've got to ask you as well i mean you're out in alberta and i mean and i know that 0.93

00:16:00.500 you feel that kuzma will not be scuttled but if that does happen you know what impact will that 0.99

00:16:07.280 have on the independence movement in alberta do you think if we lose kuzma yeah if we if we lose

00:16:15.040 kuzma which again as you said i don't think it will happen just because the it will just require

00:16:20.640 too long too much work to redo the same agreement it's it's much easier just to work out a few

00:16:27.280 uh kinks and points in it so um if but if kuzma again some is at any kind of risk or whatever

00:16:37.280 know first of all canada will drop right into a recession the you know there is even a full-blown

00:16:43.520 depression you know there is there is there is no second thought to that uh it's it's highly risk

00:16:50.400 it's high risk situation for us and if that happens the you know to in alberta i think the

00:16:57.040 independence movement i think will grow and the reason is most of our trade is done with the us

00:17:02.640 Alberta has a kind of a different economy from a dollar perspective.

00:17:08.480 And about a quarter of our economy only comes from Canada itself.

00:17:13.060 Most of our economy comes from consumption and we trade from the U.S.

00:17:18.020 So, you know, there's more risk to us losing favorable access to the U.S.

00:17:26.020 than losing anything that's got to do with Canada, which I don't think will happen anyways.

00:17:32.640 So the independent movement would definitely grow.

00:17:38.200 People start realizing what it means, what our economy looks like,

00:17:43.220 and what our trade relationships look like with the rest of the world,

00:17:47.420 which in that case will be Canada or the U.S.

00:17:52.200 Yeah, I mean, I would think that if Kuzma fails,

00:17:56.100 then a lot of people in Alberta might say,

00:17:59.160 well, maybe if we go our own way, we can negotiate our own trade.

00:18:02.640 trade deal with the americans have a lot more success than say canada has which is unfortunately

00:18:08.860 uh preoccupied with elbows up yeah and i mean and let's look let's just look at the basic fact

00:18:15.240 we want the pipeline to the west coast canada and bc says no to us says yes you know bring it down

00:18:22.960 south they already approved one to construction one pipeline which was the old keystone excel

00:18:27.420 uh part of it is going to be rebuilt and they're open for more to change regulations to allow that

00:18:35.040 specifically so when you have our own country saying no to us and you have to spend 30 billion

00:18:40.980 dollars in carbon capture for no particular reason so you'll be allowed to develop your

00:18:46.320 industries and the other country next you which is the us saying let's just get building you know

00:18:52.080 it's going to be a simple proposition for us.

00:18:57.360 Kirk, thank you so much for coming on the show.

00:18:59.320 We really appreciate your insights on all these issues.

00:19:01.700 My pleasure. Thank you.

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Juno News - June 14, 2026

Carney pauses cross-border bridge under U.S. pressure

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