Juno News - Carney's budget passed. What happens next？

00:00:00.000 Hi, Juno News. Alexander Brown joining you for another week. I'm the director of the

00:00:07.120 National Citizens Coalition. I am your host here of Not Sorry, airing three days a week.

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00:00:22.580 sorry for 20% off. There's so much great reporting here, so many great hosts, everyone working

00:00:28.180 on a big tent effort for common sense. And it means a lot to us to have you here. And I love

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00:00:37.820 enjoying hearing your perspective and your feedback on our episodes and our chats with our guests.

00:00:43.440 And so, hey, topic of the day for us is that the budget passed. It passed narrowly, but passed

00:00:49.620 nonetheless by the slimmest of margins. Mark Carney's liberals managed to push through and eke out

00:00:56.080 their 2025 budget in the House of Commons late Monday, thanks only in large part to two NDPs who

00:01:03.020 conveniently abstained from the final 170 to 168 vote. Two conservatives also abstained,

00:01:11.240 while the rest voted against. Conservative MP Matt Gennaro, who is resigning, who had previously

00:01:16.540 announced that he was leaving in the spring, was not present. What that says about whether he

00:01:21.900 supported it or not, your imagination can fill that void, nor did he cast a vote. Conservative MP

00:01:27.440 Shannon Stubbs was on approved medical leave after surgery and has since reiterated with remarks from

00:01:33.860 her office with more information on that medical leave, surely entirely legitimate. The liberal budget

00:01:40.980 passed, surviving the final hurdle after two earlier confidence motions on that budget bill. Tonight,

00:01:47.640 the House of Commons has voted to pass budget 2025. Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a post to X,

00:01:53.640 using more of his team's trademark chat GPT speak. It's time to work together to deliver on this plan,

00:02:00.200 to protect our communities, empower Canadians with new opportunities, and build Canada strong.

00:02:06.680 The truth of the matter is that the Conservatives and most common sense Canadians, for all their

00:02:12.180 misgivings about the size and the scope of the deficit and the expansion of central planning in

00:02:17.660 that carny budget, they know, we know, that the modern polling dynamics that continue to see the

00:02:23.200 Liberals popular with those who no longer wholly participate in the Canadian economy, who got in before

00:02:29.240 housing went to the moon, and who don't interface with the public decline each and every day,

00:02:34.180 they're still leaning firmly liberal at present. If the budget failed to pass, there was a very good

00:02:39.980 chance. We're looking at a liberal majority that's next to impossible to hold in check.

00:02:45.360 On behalf of, you know, young and working Canadians, we can work with a minority, as frustrating as it 1.00

00:02:50.980 is. What we couldn't work with is a return wholly and quickly to more of the same from 2015. So I'm

00:02:58.300 counting on you, the viewer, to continue serving in unofficial opposition. It's a critical role to fill

00:03:05.120 as our entrenched and out-of-touch interests seek the permission to again ignore you entirely.

00:03:11.840 Let's get this country back on track. Let's talk to Wyatt Claypool. And first, a word from our sponsor.

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00:03:47.060 compared to cigarettes. It's unbelievable. The evidence is here. The tools exist. Canadians should

00:03:51.620 have the freedom to know. You can learn more by visiting unsmoke.ca. Wyatt Claypool joins the show.

00:03:57.800 Wyatt is a popular YouTuber. He's with the National Telegraph and 1BC. He's got a great setup and

00:04:03.200 his hotel room at present, which I saw in a tweet from the other night where you're playing the

00:04:06.920 classics on PlayStation. So you're a man after my own heart. Wyatt, thanks for joining us.

00:04:12.100 Yeah, I refuse to buy just some simulator on a computer. I have to haul around the PS1 with me.

00:04:18.920 I have one of those simulators on the computer, so I understand it's better to play the OG. Wyatt,

00:04:25.740 we could talk about the things that our audience would roll their eyes at, or we could talk about the

00:04:29.900 budget, which passed by the slimmest of margins yesterday. Does this narrow victory signal early

00:04:36.160 trouble for the liberals, or did this break the way you expected? I think it does signal early

00:04:42.020 trouble, not because it almost didn't pass. I think everyone knew that it was going to pass.

00:04:48.000 This was procedural, and it would have been foolish for the opposition to actually unite and kill the

00:04:53.400 budget and force a Christmas election. Who wants to be the Grinch forcing people to go and vote when

00:05:00.180 they just want to be with their families? The thing is that all the parties were effectively

00:05:04.560 positioning themselves on where they stand on this liberal government through the guise of voting on

00:05:11.540 the budget. So we had four abstentions. Really, you just needed two, and then Elizabeth May to go and

00:05:17.980 vote with the liberals, and the speaker still could have tied the vote. So all those saying,

00:05:21.660 oh my goodness, two conservative MPs betrayed us. It doesn't matter. And by the way, do you want the

00:05:27.800 liberals to win a majority government in a Christmas election? No. What the parties are doing is that

00:05:34.360 the conservatives are signaling, absolutely, we will take a spring 2026 election, or sometime in

00:05:39.220 2026. The bloc have set their narrative that this government doesn't care about Quebec enough, and the

00:05:44.580 NDP are basically saying, this party hates workers, and they've gone too far, but because we're in a

00:05:49.580 leadership race, we need to give them a little bit more rope before we come and hang them. 0.99

00:05:54.900 Yeah. And no, that New Year's Day hangover coming out of a potential carny majority, I think that 1.00

00:06:01.920 would have been tough for the country to stomach. And I appreciate, for example, our friends in

00:06:06.020 Alberta would sorely want an election right now because they're worried about keeping the blockades in 1.00

00:06:13.040 BC not being still heard by Ottawa. But the dynamic here, the polling dynamic was difficult. It was a

00:06:19.700 continuation in some ways of elbows up where we're seeing these, the sort of over 55 voter age

00:06:26.040 demographic is still overwhelmingly leaning liberal. Everyone else is pretty popular, you know, the

00:06:31.580 conservatives are pretty popular with. And so it was a be careful what you wish for. I think the

00:06:36.360 conservatives were adjusting for that and maybe feigning a little bit of gamesmanship. And who

00:06:43.000 knows what's going to happen? What a showdown. But I don't think they wanted it. I don't think the

00:06:46.320 liberals wanted it. How do you think the conservatives are feeling right now? I mean, they're going to

00:06:51.360 maybe, from a comms perspective, show that they're disappointed that they couldn't topple the

00:06:56.740 government. But if you were them, would you be relieved to avoid a snap election that they might not

00:07:01.900 have been at full strength for? Oh, yeah, I want some more time to prepare. Oftentimes, when I start

00:07:07.260 talking about politics with people, I start talking about it in military terms, because you get some

00:07:11.980 people on social media upset that they didn't topple the government and they didn't take the absolute

00:07:16.560 first opportunity to fight the liberals in a new election. And I'm just sitting there thinking like,

00:07:21.560 guys, just because the general doesn't want to hard charge up a hill towards an encamped liberal

00:07:28.500 opponent doesn't mean that they don't want to beat the liberals. Really, what Polyev is doing

00:07:33.200 is he is not going for the short term election. And instead, he's, you know, maneuvering around

00:07:39.120 slower to go attack the liberals in the medium term. Because again, you don't charge up a hill at your

00:07:44.760 enemy. And that would be what a Christmas election would represent. What you would rather have, and I

00:07:49.620 think the conservatives probably feel at least relaxed right now, knowing that they can just do a bit

00:07:54.640 of wait and see, they would rather a bad economic update come out or something to that nature, a big

00:08:01.380 broken promise to have happened. And then they launched them into an election. Because the budget

00:08:07.020 not passing, the liberals could basically say, look at all these obstinate parties who won't even let us

00:08:12.460 pass our first budget. They've been haranguing us to pass a budget for months. And now we finally do it.

00:08:17.800 And they don't like it, even though we try to please everyone. Is the budget a hot mess? Yes. But

00:08:23.320 the average voter doesn't really engage in politics in that granular of a level to understand all of

00:08:30.080 the debt and the deficit in the budget and how they've miscategorized a bunch of operating expenses

00:08:37.000 and infrastructure, pretend like they're investing. Do you think anyone knows that? I barely even

00:08:42.260 recognize that that happened. Like it takes, it even takes you as a commentator a while to really

00:08:47.300 kind of dig into the budget to understand what it is. Yeah. And it's not even as if they went through

00:08:53.260 any sort of real effort to, I mean, their role with this, with a budget, with this budget in a

00:08:58.500 minority parliament is like to make it work for everybody is to, to bring people to them instead 0.95

00:09:03.440 of using it kind of, are you going to call our bluff or not? Like the numbers, the numbers weren't good,

00:09:09.060 but they knew that from a comms perspective, they could, they could quickly turn to, yeah, see,

00:09:14.100 you know, we're trying, they're not listening. You know, they're being disloyal at this moment of

00:09:18.340 crisis. You know, how could they not be on team Canada? Meanwhile, team Canada is as disparate and,

00:09:24.420 and there there's as much infighting as ever that the role of the NDP here, we had two in

00:09:29.660 abstention. They have 23 million in debt as a party after Jagmeet Singh assaulted the earth for the

00:09:36.060 former party of the worker. And now the party of the teacher's lounge, are they capable of showing a

00:09:41.420 backbone going forward here? Do you see this as like a smart strategic move to buy themselves time?

00:09:47.240 Are they capable of getting it together federally or, or I guess the worry would be among some,

00:09:52.180 is this the start of more of the same of just endlessly propping them up?

00:09:56.700 No, I don't think it is. I think that if it was Jagmeet Singh, he would have just had every single

00:10:01.900 NDP MP vote for the budget and signaled that, okay, well, we've gotten enough out of this thing

00:10:07.840 to keep them going. Even if he got absolutely nothing. I think that the way that the funny thing is

00:10:13.780 this cohort of NDP is far more left wing than the previous crew. The ones that are remaining are

00:10:20.540 really the hyper progressives occupying these deep urban ridings. And so I do think that they're

00:10:26.680 slightly crazy. It's like if the Democratic Party in the US was only run by the squad, 0.58

00:10:31.720 that's what the NDP is right now. And the thing is, it doesn't matter how much debt they have. I think

00:10:35.960 they do have less than 23 million now because there is a rebate that all the parties end up getting for

00:10:40.540 their spending and whatnot. But the party doesn't even need that much cash in order to double their

00:10:46.280 seats. Because all you have to do is defend seven seats. And then you just need to go and try and

00:10:51.720 maybe target seven more or a few more than even that. But the leadership race should be helping

00:10:57.280 them out with their spending, with their money problems, because every single candidate that gets

00:11:02.880 into the race has to put up hundreds of thousands of dollars to enter. And then at the same time,

00:11:07.840 just having a new leader in general is going to massively increase their donations, especially

00:11:13.760 if Mark Carney ends up taking off the NDP voters that he needed in the last election. If they start

00:11:20.060 going back over to the NDP and the, you know, the, I guess the, the donor engine of the NDP is

00:11:26.980 restored, they may actually be a threat to the liberals again.

00:11:29.540 Yeah. And on the NDP front, I mean, there are those who like to say, I think there were so many

00:11:36.360 lousy debriefs coming out of the election, but there are those who like to say that the CPC blew a

00:11:42.280 20, 20 point lead. Like they were the Falcons against the Patriots in the Superbowl, but they went

00:11:47.100 from 43% to 41%. That's historic high to still historic high. Obviously conservative.

00:11:53.400 You don't measure also polls from the very highest point to the very lowest point that you can find.

00:12:00.940 There were never 20 points ahead. They were probably like 13 or something like that. That's

00:12:05.760 probably more reasonable lead for the conservatives. It's just in the absolute dog days of the liberal

00:12:11.840 administration. Yeah. You had some shock polls that came out where it was looking so bad that

00:12:16.840 they were behind the NDP. If an election happened, you would have had the kind of the rally around

00:12:21.360 Trudeau effect. And he probably would have been able to tighten it up even to five or eight points

00:12:25.920 or something like that. It would have gotten destroyed, but he would have been able to tighten

00:12:29.100 it up because politics is boring and people tend to default back to their boring political opinions.

00:12:35.020 Yeah. And it's the dynamics of polling too. I don't think the general public totally understands

00:12:40.300 whether it's a push pull or something else. It's like, you're having a bad day. You've read some bad

00:12:45.320 news and then someone calls you and goes like, Hey, isn't this bad? Like, it's like, yeah,

00:12:49.020 you're going to say, you're going to say, you know, what, what you're being sort of probed to,

00:12:53.840 to give them back there now. But, but the conservatives would surely greatly benefit

00:12:58.060 from the NDP getting off the mat. Like, do you think that, you know, now they're crazier? I guess

00:13:04.220 that's the concern. Uh, it is just the, the watermelon, you know, crew. It is just the CAFIA crew.

00:13:10.380 Like, are we trending towards a two-party system or, or do you think that they can cobble together,

00:13:15.660 you know, 12 to 15 seats from just being crazy in urban centers?

00:13:20.040 I genuinely do because there, there is a, uh, there is like a demographic of voters that this

00:13:26.060 appeals to. And in places like Vancouver and Victoria, Toronto and whatnot, there is people

00:13:32.760 who vote for this stuff. Uh, Winnipeg as well, where Leah Gazan, probably the craziest MP in the 0.99

00:13:37.700 entire country is. Uh, and I think that this is mostly going to be good for the conservatives

00:13:42.320 if they end up, you know, getting up off the mat. Uh, the problem for the end, uh, really the only

00:13:48.440 person that the conservatives wouldn't want to become the NDP leader is Rob Ashton, since he

00:13:53.540 actually does represent, uh, whether I agree with him or not more of a worker focus, you know,

00:13:59.640 he respects blue collar people and that's kind of the John Horgan, Wob Canoe or Jack Layton energy

00:14:07.420 that would probably help out the federal NDP actually win back places like Windsor West.

00:14:12.680 Hey, I don't want them to win back Windsor West, which is great because Heather McPherson and Avi

00:14:17.280 Lewis are more likely to win. And those are your downtown hyper-progressive Hamas supporters. 0.83

00:14:23.580 Yeah. They'll win, you know, out by UBC, you know, they'll, they'll, they'll,

00:14:27.500 they'll take Kensington market in Toronto, but yeah, they'll, they'll win Naomi Klein support that

00:14:34.800 they already had. But so why the, the budget greatly skimps on housing solutions. That's,

00:14:41.160 you know, uh, you're a young guy. We have a crisis clearly tied to mass immigration and exorbitant 1.00

00:14:47.380 development costs. The, the conservatives claimed to aim to build 2.3 million homes. They, they,

00:14:53.440 they have in theory, better immigration targets that they're advocating for. The, the liberals

00:14:58.460 presented a kind of side dish to the budget, um, with, with what sure look like sort of window

00:15:04.360 addressing changes to immigration. Like, why do you think Polyev's policies on, on say housing,

00:15:09.500 where it's more about sort of cutting red tape would better effective, effectively tackle the

00:15:14.020 affordability crisis than, than these vague efforts and these like really unencouraging signs from the

00:15:20.080 liberals that they're, they're coming nowhere close on housing or understanding the root cause

00:15:24.460 of the housing crisis. Well, they did end up slashing TFWs in the budget by about half, which is a big

00:15:31.900 signal that, that people who've been advocating for lower immigration are winning. Uh, Polyev who I

00:15:37.440 would say actually kind of had a disappointing immigration stance during the election where it

00:15:41.240 was, you know, it's a hundred thousand less people, permanent residents than what the liberals were

00:15:45.560 saying. But, you know, come on, it has to be so much more of a gap that people notice. And since

00:15:52.300 the election, he has taken the stance that we want net negative migration. Perfect. That's great. 0.99

00:15:56.780 That's all I need to hear on that. Uh, but with, with housing, the thing with the liberals is that

00:16:01.500 weren't they the ones who just had to count, uh, cancel a tree planting program? They couldn't even

00:16:07.040 plant a tree. And now they're going to attempt to actually build substantial amounts of makeshift

00:16:12.860 units in order to house more people. I think this is going to be one of those things that in the next

00:16:18.060 six months or a year, whether we have an election before then or not, you're going to have a lot of,

00:16:23.440 like, I think the conservatives are going to have a strong ability to start badgering the liberals

00:16:27.960 about having probably never built a unit or they only have a handful of units built because if

00:16:32.960 they're making pre prefabricated houses and you can't build a lot of them, that's kind of on you

00:16:39.080 because that's sounds like something that nobody could screw up. It's idiot proof being able to put 0.99

00:16:44.820 up prefab prefab houses. But I think we're going to find that the liberal bureaucracy is going to 1.00

00:16:51.180 prevent them from succeeding. Yeah. And I think, I think there's only going to be like 4,000 of

00:16:55.780 those prefab houses too, as if that's going to fit, uh, like we're still welcoming in like north

00:17:01.440 of 2 million people over the next three years, including temporary streams. And that's if they

00:17:05.600 even stick to that. So where are we going? Maybe this is going to keep, uh, people from coming to

00:17:10.680 Canada when they realize that the housing options look like a, uh, a carnival concession stand.

00:17:15.980 Yeah, no, it's, it's like that portable that you used to be stuck at in elementary school with it

00:17:21.800 on a sweltering hot day. And looking at some of the green initiatives and the stranglehold on our

00:17:27.140 energy industry, um, the liberals commit vaguely to a balance of climate targets they've never hit

00:17:32.240 in, in, in the budget and lessening, uh, the emissions cap, but the bad bills and the picking

00:17:37.280 more losers than winners, it remains in place. The carbon tax has just been shifted to the business

00:17:42.200 side. If you are the conservatives, so how would you balance communicating the Canadian public's

00:17:48.340 want for economic environmental stewardship with, with communicating like the need that like we have

00:17:54.180 to get projects to market and more of the same, isn't going to cut it right now. The, the, I would

00:17:59.560 actually say the answer on, on having to balance, uh, trying to get the economic economy, uh, kickstarted

00:18:05.360 and balancing environmental stewardship. Honestly, I don't even think you had to do the balancing of

00:18:10.180 environmental stewardship simply because I think Canadians are so sick of the liberal policies

00:18:15.020 that they're not really looking for poly, uh, for the conservatives to say anything, you know,

00:18:19.480 about environmental conservation. Now that's already always still in their platform. They would speak

00:18:24.080 on and that there's, there, there's like, you know, a certain world where it's important to speak

00:18:27.780 out on that stuff. But, uh, I think that really on this issue, they just need to rip apart all of the

00:18:34.660 liberal, like, like regulations, just keep targeting them as the actual woes of the economy, not any

00:18:41.440 sort of thing to do with Donald Trump. It has to do with domestic policy on the great rhetorical line,

00:18:48.060 because they used to say with, uh, with Justin Trudeau, oh, it's the Trudeau Singh government.

00:18:53.400 It's the liberal MVP government. This is the liberal green government. They bent over backwards to get

00:18:59.680 Elizabeth May's vote on the budget. They literally promised to keep going with the Paris climate

00:19:05.420 targets. You could have just bought her a drink. Yeah. You could have just bought her a drink and 1.00

00:19:09.680 she would have said yes. So yeah, you could, you could, and you could have gotten it at any local

00:19:13.540 pharmacy that's around you. You don't even need to actually go to a liquor store apparently, but

00:19:18.500 anyways, yeah, you could easily like this is going to be a very, I think this is going to be a good

00:19:23.880 rhetorical line for the conservatives that they actually partnered up with May. They kicked the NDP out of

00:19:29.620 the bed and they brought in Elizabeth May's green party to dictate their environmental policy, 0.89

00:19:34.620 uh, for the book, like for their, for the next year, uh, or for the, basically their entire term

00:19:39.760 in order to keep her on side. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, the, the strange bedfellows now you're,

00:19:45.060 you're a young guy, you you're huge on YouTube. Um, I think, and I've been talking to folks on,

00:19:53.520 on the inside and we all have our sources and, and we all like the, I would say the,

00:19:59.680 the blunt aspect of conservative communications. You have to be a feisty opposition, but I think

00:20:05.780 there's this sort of undeniable reality that are over 55 voters in, in, in, in, in that key

00:20:11.860 demographic, they, they seem to be put off by tone. They seem to want to tone police the young when they

00:20:18.000 get all uppity and complain about the conditions of their captivity. How would you, or would you

00:20:23.860 strike a better balance as, as the opposition, uh, trying to maybe appear more stately while also

00:20:31.060 being critical? Like, would you change anything or would you just accept that? You, you know,

00:20:36.420 you, you've got your people, you're popular with your people, uh, and not everyone's going to like you.

00:20:41.660 Genuinely. I think they actually just have to kind of stick to their guns.

00:20:44.460 The, the, the conservatives, as much as people talk about how much the liberals do well with

00:20:49.260 over 55 voters, they are starting to slowly come down with that demographic. It's holding pretty 0.57

00:20:54.080 well, but again, we haven't had as much bad news hit the headlines, uh, about this liberal government

00:20:59.900 yet. And obviously it's very early going and the media has always been allies of the liberals. So

00:21:04.220 they tend to like to announce all the things or like, you know, report on all the things the

00:21:08.580 liberals are announcing with no follow-up on whether or not that stuff's actually going to happen or not.

00:21:12.520 But the conservatives do really well with middle-aged voters. A voter who is above the age of 30,

00:21:18.460 but below the age of 55 is the key demographic for the conservative party. And it also happens to be

00:21:23.820 the largest portion of the Canadian population. And so the conservatives are doing better with 18

00:21:31.160 to 30 voters as well, 18 to 29, because they've done much better with especially younger men.

00:21:37.600 But at the end of the day, it's the kind of family demographic vote they're doing really well

00:21:42.660 with. The people who the kids are still in the house, those are the people who vote conservative.

00:21:47.820 And I think if they do want to win voters back who are above the age of 55, it has less to do with

00:21:53.020 tone. I think it has to do with policies. Uh, I've told even members of the conservative team

00:21:58.420 that what you, in a certain sense, uh, how you win back a lot of, especially women over the age of 55,

00:22:04.120 run a soft pro-life policy. Because more than just marketing yourself as shiny, happy people,

00:22:11.100 you actually have to go after the liberals as being pretty nasty when you actually dig into

00:22:15.060 their policies. These are people who all universally voted against upgrading criminal

00:22:21.440 sentencing for murdering a pregnant woman. Oftentimes you have to go after a voter's stomach

00:22:26.400 when it comes to voting for the other guy and exposing that they have some very immoral positions.

00:22:31.240 So going more on letting, uh, basically biological men ruin women's sports, uh, going after the 1.00

00:22:38.140 liberals, absolute zero restrictions on abortion type policies, including not even protecting pregnant

00:22:43.500 women from crime. That's the stuff where if you go to older voters that can kind of clue them back 1.00

00:22:49.300 into, yeah, these guys are not the ones fighting against Trump and the evil orange man. These are the

00:22:55.860 people who actually have these far left, uh, crazy social opinions and they want your daughter's

00:23:01.580 basketball league ruined. Yeah. Think of the protecting the family unit, crime and safety,

00:23:07.080 issues of order. Uh, it's all right there. Uh, Wyatt, tell us a little bit about how things are going

00:23:12.360 at 1BC right now. Oh, everything's always chaotic at the legislature. I can actually tell you this rumor

00:23:18.600 right now. So apparently there's going to be another new political party at the legislature.

00:23:24.760 This is all rumors at the moment, but it's looks like Eleanor Sterko and Amelia Boltby might be

00:23:29.220 starting their own party and I invite them to do it. There needs to be another center left party. 0.66

00:23:33.700 That's going to hurt the NDP. But at 1BC, we're just hard charging on all the policies we care about,

00:23:38.560 like, uh, ending drip on undrip and all of the, uh, uh, indigenous type, uh, restrictions that are

00:23:44.740 making it impossible to actually build anything in this province. Impossible to build homeowners are

00:23:49.420 deeply concerned about, you know, whether they are even keeping their fee simple. Wyatt Claypool,

00:23:54.220 thanks for joining us today. Thank you for having me on.

Juno News - November 19, 2025

Carney's budget passed. What happens next？

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