Juno News - November 08, 2019Conservative caucus opts out of power to turf Andrew Scheer
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Summary
Andrew Scheer has passed the first test of his post-election leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. At the first meeting of the caucus, the caucus voted against giving themselves the power to turf Andrew Scheer as leader of the party.
Transcript
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Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has passed the first test of his post-election leadership of
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the Conservative Party of Canada. At the first meeting of the Conservative caucus for the next
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parliament, the members of the caucus voted against giving themselves the power to effectively
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turf Andrew Scheer as leader of the party, at least leader of the party in parliament.
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Now, they didn't vote to keep him. They voted against even having the opportunity to raise
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questions about Andrew Scheer's leadership, but even so, it's an endorsement of the fact that the
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majority of the caucus does not have a plan of launching some sort of a palace coup against
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Andrew Scheer, though it doesn't mean that Scheer is in the clear just yet. He'll still have to face
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a much bigger vote, which is the vote of party members at an April 2020 convention where, according
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to the Conservative constitution, there will be a review of Andrew Scheer's leadership. If he falls
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short of that, there's going to be a leadership race. He could be a candidate in it, but he'll have
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to fight to lead the party into the next election. Now, of course, the decision from the caucus is one
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that comes as good news to Andrew Scheer. It shows a level of confidence in him from the people that
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are going to be most responsible for trumpeting the Conservative message in the next Parliament.
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But what is interesting is that there still is this battle from both sides that's going after
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Andrew Scheer. You've got people on the red Tory side saying he didn't win because he's too
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Conservative. You've got people on the blue Tory side saying he didn't win the election because he
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was too mushy and too moderate. Neither of these sides, even if they can coalesce around the idea of
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getting rid of him, will agree on who replaces him. And it's important to look at how Andrew Scheer
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got to where he is in the first place. He was not the first pick of most people in the leadership
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race. In fact, it was, I think, just under 22% of Conservative members that voted for him as their
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number one choice. He trailed behind Maxime Bernier in every single round of ballot counting except for
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the one that counted, the last one. This means that Andrew Scheer was very much seen in 2017
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as the consensus candidate, the guy around whom everyone could get behind, and more importantly,
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the guy that was going to be the most tolerable to the most number of people in the party.
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Now, of course, that doesn't work once you've lost an election. The knives are going to come out.
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And this isn't an endorsement or a criticism of Andrew Scheer. This is just laying out the facts
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as they are right now. If there were a Conservative Party leadership race right now, who would win?
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Ultimately, the rules of the Conservatives would allow for an identical situation to unfold, which
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is someone who is seen as the consensus candidate taking over. And the same problems that existed in
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the 2019 election are going to exist in the next election whenever it happens to be. We've, of course,
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seen reports that Peter McKay may be organizing despite his denial of it, that Aaron O'Toole may
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be as well. Whatever the case may be, these are not leaders that will have a distinctly different
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approach to governance and a distinctly different approach to leading the Conservative Party.
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So it may be just an entirely wasted effort to get back to the very same problem. The answer for
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the Conservatives is going to come in really having an introspective look at what the party wants to be.
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By focusing on the leader, no one is asking the questions about what is the Conservative Party
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of Canada actually standing for? What is the party about? What does Big Ten Party mean? Does this
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party have a place for social Conservatives? Does it have a place for Libertarians? Is it a red Tory
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party? A blue Tory party? Is it a party for everyone? What are the non-negotiables? What are the deal
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breakers? I'm just rhyming off questions here. These are the questions that the party needs to answer.
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For starters, these are the questions the party needs to ask. It's not going to be as simple
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as getting rid of the leader and putting in someone else without going through that process.
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My free advice to the Conservatives, figure out what you want to be and how you want to fit
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into the Canadian discussion before you just replace the person at the top. For True North,