Juno News - September 02, 2021


Conservatives are trying to put Quebec in play


Episode Stats

Length

43 minutes

Words per Minute

183.0597

Word Count

7,931

Sentence Count

460


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.
00:00:06.660 This is the Andrew Lawton Show, brought to you by True North.
00:00:13.000 Coming up, a look at where things stand in the busy and news-intensive 2021 election campaign.
00:00:19.740 Plus, I sit down with Conservative candidate Pierre Paulyev.
00:00:24.240 The Andrew Lawton Show starts right now.
00:00:30.000 Hello and welcome to another edition of Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.
00:00:35.120 This is the Andrew Lawton Show on True North, Wednesday, September 1st, 2021.
00:00:40.400 Hope you're having a great time as we are 19 days away to the September 20th election.
00:00:47.060 So we've started to see a little bit of movement.
00:00:49.700 I know right out of the gate, we talked about it last week.
00:00:52.420 Justin Trudeau dogged by Afghanistan, why there's an election at all.
00:00:56.280 Some other questions.
00:00:57.740 This week, it's been a little bit different.
00:00:59.540 Aaron O'Toole and the Conservatives have had to go on a bit of defense as well.
00:01:04.060 And we'll talk about that later on in the show.
00:01:06.440 This is a bit of an interesting show for me.
00:01:08.460 You may have noticed, if you had been following True North's coverage,
00:01:11.600 I was actually embedded in the Conservative campaign for the last, oh, five or six days or so.
00:01:18.140 And this was us media.
00:01:19.920 We had a number of journalists there, but I was the only one representing independent media.
00:01:24.060 And we went through Atlantic Canada, all of the...
00:01:27.440 It was actually quite a whirlwind.
00:01:29.280 We started in Ottawa, where all the tours start and end.
00:01:32.900 And then from Ottawa, we went to Deer Lake, Newfoundland.
00:01:35.480 From Deer Lake, Newfoundland, we went to Sydney, Nova Scotia.
00:01:39.020 And then from there, we went to Fredericton, New Brunswick.
00:01:41.940 And then we went to Charlottetown, PEI.
00:01:44.620 And that was all in the span of like 36 hours or something.
00:01:48.020 And then we did a couple of stops in Quebec and then went back to Ontario.
00:01:51.920 So it was like six provinces in four days.
00:01:55.080 And then I had to get back from Ottawa to where I live in London, Ontario.
00:01:59.340 Yesterday evening, I was talking to my wife and I just had a moment.
00:02:02.940 I'm like, wait, did I get back today?
00:02:05.960 Or I had no idea.
00:02:07.200 So it was a bit of a whirlwind.
00:02:08.620 But I think it was very important because the whole reason we set out to do that,
00:02:12.140 to be on the ground covering the campaign,
00:02:14.060 is to ask the questions of the Conservative campaign.
00:02:17.480 This week, that the mainstream media wasn't doing.
00:02:21.020 And more importantly, to get answers to questions on issues
00:02:24.040 that are very much relevant to a lot of our audience.
00:02:27.140 I mean, we've been fielding questions.
00:02:28.740 And I'm going to talk about the most common one.
00:02:31.640 But we've been fielding questions from you folks watching and reading
00:02:35.480 and listening to our content for weeks now saying,
00:02:37.980 you know, what are the Conservatives going to do about this?
00:02:39.840 What's the PPC going to do about this?
00:02:41.580 What are the Liberals going to do about this?
00:02:43.440 So we were trying to dig into that and actually have boots on the ground.
00:02:46.580 And I think there was a lot that came out of it.
00:02:48.720 And I'm going to share in this episode,
00:02:50.040 just some of what we ended up picking up well on the road.
00:02:54.180 We'll be talking to Pierre Polyev later in the show
00:02:57.520 and also talking about a little bit of the horse race stuff.
00:02:59.800 Now, I should say, I don't love the horse race as much on a podcast
00:03:03.960 because numbers change so quickly.
00:03:06.380 And as you always hear politicians say,
00:03:08.680 oh, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
00:03:11.120 They only say that when they're behind in the polls.
00:03:13.360 But I do think these polls are interesting because of how decisive they are
00:03:17.420 and also because of how strong the People's Party representation is.
00:03:22.220 The PPC was supposed to have been in the debates.
00:03:25.700 If you were to look at the polls that have come out
00:03:27.940 since the Debates Commission made its decision.
00:03:31.040 The threshold was the People's Party had to have 4% in national polling.
00:03:36.280 They've had 6%, 7% pretty consistently,
00:03:39.660 but it took them a little while to get up to that point.
00:03:42.860 And the Debates Commission that puts on these nationalized debates
00:03:46.440 had taken its sample before that surge really happened.
00:03:50.320 So if they were to measure that today, the PPC would be in the debate.
00:03:54.340 But they don't.
00:03:55.100 They set it aside.
00:03:56.240 And the People's Party is saying it's an attack on democracy,
00:03:58.800 but they don't really have any mechanism to appeal
00:04:01.700 unless they were to take the Debates Commission to court.
00:04:04.220 But they've said that just wouldn't be worthwhile.
00:04:06.440 So they're just focusing on campaigning and trying to get their message out to voters other ways.
00:04:11.600 So yes, there is going to be a little bit this show
00:04:13.720 that focuses more on the Conservative campaign because that's where I was.
00:04:17.380 But rest assured, just like we spoke to Tarek El Naga from The Maverick last week,
00:04:21.760 we are covering all the candidates, all the parties.
00:04:24.500 I've got Rod Taylor from the Christian Heritage Party on the show next week.
00:04:28.240 We'll have PPC leader Maxime Bernier on the show.
00:04:31.200 He's on tour right now, so we haven't quite picked a date,
00:04:34.260 but that will be happening. And I want to hear from you.
00:04:36.900 What do you think the election issues are?
00:04:40.000 Here's the thing that's interesting.
00:04:41.420 One of the biggest issues, and I was getting nonstop emails,
00:04:45.240 ask O'Toole about this, ask O'Toole about this,
00:04:47.100 and like 90% of them were,
00:04:49.100 what's his stance on mandatory vaccination
00:04:51.240 and what's his stance on vaccine passports?
00:04:53.680 And I didn't actually ask those questions because he had already answered them.
00:04:56.660 So I just want to put it on record now
00:04:58.760 because I know this is the issue that so many of you care about.
00:05:02.100 He was asked about this a number of times,
00:05:04.160 actually right before I joined the tour.
00:05:06.900 And he was asked, and his answer for mandatory vaccination
00:05:10.240 is that he wants an alternative model to what Justin Trudeau's does.
00:05:14.860 Here's how he explains it.
00:05:15.960 We're seeing more private institutions and universities and so on
00:05:21.520 adopting mandatory vaccination.
00:05:24.120 Are you open to changing your position on that?
00:05:26.480 My position has not changed.
00:05:29.760 Vaccines are the most critical tool in this pandemic.
00:05:32.980 Every time I get to encourage people to take the vaccine,
00:05:36.040 talk about how safe and effective they are for use to fight COVID-19,
00:05:40.660 to stop the spread, I do so.
00:05:42.220 That's why my wife and I were very public in our vaccination process.
00:05:46.580 We also have tools like rapid tests that can be used on a daily basis.
00:05:52.500 We have masking, sanitation, all the things we've done as a country
00:05:56.540 we have to continue to do.
00:05:58.520 I will respect the personal health decisions of Canadians
00:06:01.160 and we can use rapid testing on a daily basis
00:06:04.760 to make sure we all do our part to fight COVID-19.
00:06:07.960 And here's how he's answered questions on vaccine passports.
00:06:11.280 I will be there for Canadians, for folks from coast to coast.
00:06:15.860 As a federal partner, we will respect the provinces and their decisions
00:06:20.180 with respect to health measures, with respect to balancing the needs
00:06:24.800 of keeping people safe and keeping the economy going.
00:06:28.900 And if the provinces make decisions on proof of vaccinations,
00:06:32.500 vaccine passports, we will support and respect what the provinces decide to do.
00:06:38.020 It is their decision to try and balance off making sure people are safe.
00:06:43.820 We fight the fourth wave of the pandemic together.
00:06:46.120 So you may like or dislike the answer, but he has answered.
00:06:48.520 On a mandatory vaccine, he wants people to subject themselves
00:06:51.980 to the question of vaccination or regular testing.
00:06:55.700 And on the question of vaccine passports,
00:06:57.580 he's saying it is a provincial responsibility,
00:07:00.140 which may be legally sound.
00:07:02.740 But I mean, my position on this, as you've heard on the show,
00:07:05.240 I'm very much against it.
00:07:06.380 I would love to see federal leadership on why this is not what Canada needs,
00:07:11.020 not what Canadians need, or not what they should want anyway.
00:07:14.240 But the reality is, it's a political hot potato.
00:07:17.180 So he's just saying, yeah, I'm not dealing with it.
00:07:19.480 Let Doug Ford deal with it.
00:07:20.940 Let Francois Legault and Jason Kenney, let them make up their minds.
00:07:24.380 But he's not going to force them one way or the other.
00:07:26.740 So that's where he stands on that.
00:07:29.180 Maxime Bernier has been a fair bit more forceful on that.
00:07:32.160 He's saying absolutely not himself.
00:07:34.380 Well, he himself has said that he's not vaccinated because he doesn't see a need to be.
00:07:38.560 And interestingly, that actually prevented him or is preventing him from going to Atlantic Canada
00:07:43.960 to campaign because many of the provinces there require you to be vaccinated if you don't want
00:07:49.120 to quarantine.
00:07:49.940 So he was able to go to New Brunswick, but he couldn't go to PEI or Nova Scotia this past weekend.
00:07:55.860 And that was the reason he cited.
00:07:58.680 I want to talk about Atlantic Canada for a moment here because this was the spot that
00:08:02.940 the Conservative campaign went.
00:08:04.680 And interestingly enough, the Conservatives have not done well there at all.
00:08:09.400 Just not at all.
00:08:10.440 There's one Conservative seat in Nova Scotia.
00:08:13.380 There are a couple in New Brunswick, none in PEI, and none in Newfoundland.
00:08:17.800 We hit all four in part because the Conservatives and all party leaders want to say,
00:08:22.120 yes, we're campaigning in all provinces, and they have to pretend that it's winnable.
00:08:25.980 They have to go and say, well, yes, you know, we really think it's going to be different here.
00:08:29.560 We really think we can win here.
00:08:31.220 What was interesting, though, is how little there was on very specific Atlantic issues
00:08:37.740 in the announcements.
00:08:39.220 We were in, where was it?
00:08:40.580 I think Cornerbrook, Newfoundland.
00:08:42.200 And it was a general announcement that was dealing with affordability.
00:08:45.960 We were in Fredericton, New Brunswick.
00:08:47.900 And it was, again, a fairly general announcement that fit in with the national campaign.
00:08:52.620 I caught up in Sydney, Nova Scotia with former Cabinet Minister Lisa Raitt.
00:08:56.700 And I was asking her about this.
00:08:58.100 Like, cut the nonsense here.
00:08:59.560 Is Atlantic Canada winnable for the Conservatives?
00:09:02.460 This was our brief conversation.
00:09:04.440 So let's talk about Atlantic Canada.
00:09:06.260 This is not an area the Conservatives have traditionally done well,
00:09:09.300 certainly not in the last couple of years.
00:09:11.840 Do you think things are different this time around?
00:09:14.000 And if so, why?
00:09:14.820 I do.
00:09:16.140 I do because this part of the world can definitely move from the Liberal side of the books
00:09:21.420 to the Conservative side of the books.
00:09:23.160 You just saw that happen here in Nova Scotia with the provincial election
00:09:26.780 where Tim Houston is the Premier-elect.
00:09:28.900 After 13 or 14 years with the Liberal government, Stephen McNeil and then Ian Rankin.
00:09:33.340 So yeah, they can definitely move in terms of where their vote is if it's the right issue.
00:09:39.380 They care about issues.
00:09:40.620 They care about certain things that matter to them.
00:09:43.000 And if the leader can connect on those, that's what's going to make a difference.
00:09:47.060 Are the Atlantic issues unique to Atlantic Canada?
00:09:50.300 Or do you think people in the Atlantic provinces, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, PEI,
00:09:54.160 are receptive to a lot of the broader economic realities and policies
00:09:57.840 that you'd put in a national campaign?
00:10:00.000 Normally, it's pretty much lined up with what voters in Ontario care about, except this time.
00:10:06.000 And this time, it's about health care.
00:10:07.680 And the reason being is that there's a very big demarcation in terms of health care
00:10:11.940 here in Nova Scotia, as there is in Ontario or any of the western provinces.
00:10:16.640 And they care about that.
00:10:17.760 And it's become a transactional matter in politics.
00:10:21.120 The first question you're going to get is on health care.
00:10:23.180 The second question you're going to get is on seniors.
00:10:25.400 That's the way the demographics are settling out here.
00:10:28.800 So leaders have to come to town with a real plan, not a fake one,
00:10:33.040 a real plan on what they're going to do.
00:10:34.680 And voters are keeping track, and they are taking count.
00:10:38.000 What is it you're seeing?
00:10:39.260 And I know you're out of politics now, so I'm putting you on the spot here.
00:10:41.620 But what are you seeing in the Conservative platform this time around
00:10:44.280 that you think is going to resonate and is going to hit on those nerves for Atlantic voters?
00:10:49.100 What I see is I see that there's policy being rolled out every single day.
00:10:54.900 And not a day goes by when you aren't hearing a fresh, new idea.
00:10:59.260 Now, you may not like the idea, but it's fresh, it's new.
00:11:01.860 And people understand that there is a plan, and that the plan is being executed on.
00:11:06.440 And what people see is discipline.
00:11:08.280 And when you see discipline, and you see execution, you have confidence in the leader.
00:11:13.120 And that's what this is all about.
00:11:14.300 Trudeau has made this election about him.
00:11:16.740 And Mr. O'Toole is doing a really good job showing that there is an alternative.
00:11:20.280 And the alternative is Erin O'Toole and the Conservative Party of Canada.
00:11:23.360 Now, Lisa was very quick to say that she is not at all affiliated with the campaign.
00:11:28.700 She's not running, she's out of politics, but she's still very much supporting Erin O'Toole.
00:11:33.160 She moderated a town hall of his.
00:11:35.360 She was at that event and got a special shout out at the North Sydney Firefighters Club in Sydney.
00:11:41.520 Well, North Sydney.
00:11:42.200 No, not in Sydney.
00:11:42.940 It was in North Sydney, which I'm told is like a whole different Sydney in Nova Scotia,
00:11:46.800 but up on beautiful Cape Breton.
00:11:48.800 And she's saying, yeah, that, you know, these people are really struggling.
00:11:51.960 And you could actually see that.
00:11:53.240 I've been to Sydney once before.
00:11:54.640 And it's a fairly industrial town.
00:11:58.200 It's an old coal town, which like a lot of other coal towns, not doing too, too well in 2021.
00:12:03.440 So people are hurting.
00:12:04.620 The cost of living is very important there.
00:12:06.800 And interestingly enough, there did seem to be,
00:12:09.660 and I just got this talking to a few people around town,
00:12:12.540 a sense that they've been forgotten by politicians.
00:12:15.220 Now, whether they can break this years-long tradition of voting liberal,
00:12:18.960 especially in Newfoundland, stands to be seen.
00:12:22.140 But certainly there was a sense there that what they have now is just not working for them.
00:12:27.840 Aaron O'Toole had actually called the Newfoundland MPs, the Liberals, the Silent Six.
00:12:32.440 He said that's how they're viewed by Newfoundlanders,
00:12:34.740 because they get elected, they get sent to Ottawa,
00:12:36.980 and then they end up doing nothing for Newfoundland.
00:12:39.740 But the question of whether the Conservatives can do well regionally there, I'm not sure about.
00:12:43.780 One riding, if you check out True North's ridings to watch list that I'm going to be paying a little bit of attention to,
00:12:50.180 is Fredericton.
00:12:52.060 And I just find Fredericton interesting because you had a very strong green showing in 2019
00:12:56.720 that elected Green MP Jenica Atwin.
00:12:59.540 Fast forward to 2021, Jenica Atwin is now a Liberal seeking re-election,
00:13:04.160 but there still is a strong green base there.
00:13:06.520 And I saw one poll or projection about a week or so back
00:13:10.620 in which the Conservatives were actually poised to either win or come very close to winning
00:13:15.580 because of a green-Liberal vote split.
00:13:18.420 So stranger things have happened.
00:13:20.560 And vote splitting is going to be a very big issue this election,
00:13:23.480 which is why you're already seeing a lot of people talking about strategic voting,
00:13:28.040 which historically just advantages the Liberals
00:13:30.440 because they're often the most winnable alternative to the Conservatives.
00:13:34.260 But interestingly enough, I think we are going to see a lot of very narrow wins
00:13:40.560 that may have been because of a vote split of two other parties.
00:13:44.280 And that's certainly the case in Quebec, possibly.
00:13:47.080 I was in Quebec for a brief period of time on the campaign
00:13:51.080 because Erin O'Toole has made a very significant and a very concerted effort to court Quebec voters.
00:13:57.220 Not just Quebec voters, but Quebecois voters.
00:14:00.600 He's offered a contract with Quebec and he wants to give Quebec very, very wide latitude
00:14:08.060 on a range of things on how federal funds are spent, how programs are delivered.
00:14:13.800 He wants to give Quebec the right to assert itself on more language rights.
00:14:18.800 So basically further ingrain the French language in Quebec culture and institutions,
00:14:22.920 even beyond what it is now.
00:14:24.880 And a lot of Anglo-Quebeckers, even Conservatives I've talked to, are very annoyed by this.
00:14:30.660 They see it as being political pandering and really appealing to the sovereigntists
00:14:35.140 in an effort to court bloc voters.
00:14:38.120 I spoke to Erin O'Toole about this at his announcement in Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec.
00:14:43.940 And I asked him, listen, I mean, first off, why are you giving them so much power
00:14:48.200 when this is a province that has historically wanted to leave Confederation?
00:14:51.800 And hey, if you think this is how provinces should be, would you extend the same rights
00:14:56.580 to other provinces?
00:14:58.120 This is that exchange.
00:14:59.780 Andrew Lawton, True North.
00:15:01.240 The Quebec government wants to collect federal and Quebec taxes on a single tax return
00:15:06.020 or remit the federal portion to Ottawa.
00:15:08.620 Your platform seems to open the door for this.
00:15:11.340 This is a province that has held two referenda on secession,
00:15:14.720 does not recognize the legitimacy of many federal institutions.
00:15:18.360 Should they have the right to do this?
00:15:19.540 We need to work with provinces to make things more streamlined, easier,
00:15:25.660 and to make sure that we can deliver more streamlined tax delivery system,
00:15:32.380 the tax form for Quebec, without sacrificing jobs in parts of the regions,
00:15:38.560 in Schwinnigan and Jean-Claire.
00:15:40.080 So we've taken a very balanced approach to say we're going to work with Quebec on this
00:15:44.040 and make sure, particularly after COVID-19, we're not seeing more job disruption,
00:15:49.820 more dislocation at a time every single job really counts to get the country back on its feet following COVID.
00:15:57.040 Your proposed contract with Quebec offers wide latitude to the province on language, immigration,
00:16:04.340 a law that runs contrary to religious freedom, opting out of federal programs, the list goes on.
00:16:09.380 Are you prepared to offer the same deal to any other province that wants to assert a bit more independence from Ottawa or just Quebec?
00:16:15.540 I want to make sure that our country gets back on track after COVID-19.
00:16:21.320 I want to make sure the federal government stops interfering in areas of provincial jurisdiction
00:16:26.360 and has a federalism of partnership.
00:16:29.660 That means respecting autonomy and partnering.
00:16:32.800 And in some cases, if provinces can help deliver a program even better,
00:16:38.500 we should have shared or cooperative federalism.
00:16:40.900 That will be my approach.
00:16:42.560 It's why we're going to tackle the unfair ideological measures that have held back Alberta and Saskatchewan, for example.
00:16:49.220 It's why we're going to give Quebec more autonomy and immigration
00:16:52.820 to preserve the importance of the French language
00:16:55.320 and to tackle the huge shortages in the labour market we see in this province.
00:17:00.200 The last thing we need is more years of Justin Trudeau and Ottawa knows best.
00:17:07.440 It's leaving us less prosperous and more divided as a country.
00:17:10.640 So he doesn't come right out and say it, but he seems to be indicating there
00:17:15.220 that yes, he supports finding a winning formula with provinces to work within Confederation
00:17:20.460 and perhaps deliver more programs themselves if they can do it more efficiently.
00:17:25.040 Now, if you're an Albertan tuning in, you may think,
00:17:27.480 okay, yeah, he's just pandering to Quebec.
00:17:28.980 But actually pay close attention to that because if he's offering a deal to provinces,
00:17:34.520 to any province, to allow themselves to have a bit more autonomy,
00:17:37.720 that could square very well with a lot of the pushes for Western independence
00:17:41.620 that we've been talking about on this show
00:17:43.640 and that certainly people in Western provinces have been talking about,
00:17:47.520 not just in the election, but for the last several years.
00:17:50.540 I spoke with Pierre-Paul Hu, who is a Conservative candidate, a long-time MP.
00:17:55.920 He's seeking re-election in Charles-Bourg-aux-Saint-Charles about this.
00:18:00.640 We caught up at a rally in Trois-Rivières and I wanted to ask him about that.
00:18:05.140 Listen, you're a Quebec Conservative, but you're also a Canadian Member of Parliament.
00:18:08.460 What do you say to people who think this platform is just pandering?
00:18:12.180 Here's our exchange.
00:18:13.460 So let's talk about how things are going in Quebec.
00:18:15.420 This is not an area where Conservatives have historically done really well.
00:18:18.940 What makes you think this election is going to be different?
00:18:21.620 Actually, on the ground, it's clear that some things happen right now.
00:18:26.080 So I've been elected for six years now from Quebec City
00:18:30.580 and with my other colleagues, Conservative MP,
00:18:34.920 we actually understand how it works and it's crazy.
00:18:39.540 We have good momentum.
00:18:41.640 People are looking for a Renault tool and they say,
00:18:43.840 OK, it's different, we like this guy.
00:18:46.980 So people are in Quebec.
00:18:48.720 I can't imagine, I can't say we will be, I don't know, 20, 30 MPs,
00:18:54.060 but there's some things happen on the ground.
00:18:56.860 Nationally, the campaign is very much about Justin Trudeau versus Aaron O'Toole,
00:19:00.980 the Liberals versus the Conservatives.
00:19:02.840 In Quebec, things are very different.
00:19:04.400 You have some ridings that are Conservative-Liberal,
00:19:06.440 others that are Conservative-Bloc Québécois.
00:19:08.340 How does the message really resonate in those ridings
00:19:11.860 when it's not Liberal votes you're after, but Bloc Québécois votes?
00:19:16.280 That's true.
00:19:17.120 In Quebec, we have the Bloc Québécois and we have a lot of ridings.
00:19:20.120 The fight is between us and the Bloc.
00:19:21.860 So the things people have to look at is who can do things.
00:19:25.600 So actually, with the plan we have, the contract Aaron O'Toole have with Quebec,
00:19:29.700 it resonates strongly with people because they trust him, they trust us,
00:19:34.200 and it's OK.
00:19:35.000 So now, if you want something real, we have to have a party who will be in government
00:19:39.980 to change things and to support Quebec government.
00:19:42.300 And the Bloc Québécois can do this.
00:19:43.620 There have been a lot of Conservatives, especially out West,
00:19:46.940 that view that contract with Quebec as political pandering.
00:19:50.680 What's your message to them?
00:19:51.900 I mean, when we are in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Minto,
00:19:56.200 we have to look at things to help people over there with their own issues.
00:20:00.160 In Quebec, we have our own issues.
00:20:01.700 So if Aaron O'Toole wants to work with us, to work with the Conservative MP from Quebec,
00:20:07.060 to make sure that our people are OK with different things, with the language,
00:20:11.180 especially it's French for us.
00:20:13.460 As you can see, my first language is French,
00:20:15.500 but we don't have a fight with English people we work with.
00:20:18.640 So in the House of Commons, as a Quebec MP,
00:20:22.660 I was always there to help my colleagues from Alberta, B.C.,
00:20:25.640 to help them with the oil, whatever they want.
00:20:29.260 So it's a teamwork for us.
00:20:32.080 A lot of the economic issues that have been dominating on the campaign,
00:20:35.360 support for families, recovery from the pandemic,
00:20:37.980 are these truly national issues,
00:20:40.160 or do they have different, unique elements in Quebec
00:20:43.480 that are kind of separate from the national discussions on these things?
00:20:47.880 Not really, because the economic recovery is for everyone.
00:20:51.380 So with the pandemic, it's the same message all across Canada.
00:20:55.820 Everyone is upset with Justin Trudeau.
00:20:57.620 Everyone sees that it's crazy to have a debt over $1 trillion.
00:21:01.680 So we have to do something, and we have to do it now.
00:21:04.840 So it's why people are actually very upset with Justin Trudeau.
00:21:08.500 They say, OK, we need to change.
00:21:10.280 And the taste, but the will to change is very strong,
00:21:14.280 and it's strong in Quebec too.
00:21:15.280 Now, interestingly enough, only by my read,
00:21:20.820 only the People's Party of Canada has pledged to review and reduce equalization.
00:21:25.960 This is timely because there is an Alberta referendum coming up in October on equalization.
00:21:31.160 If it passes, the federal government will have to negotiate,
00:21:34.840 at the very least, negotiate with Alberta on equalization,
00:21:38.620 on amending the Constitution.
00:21:39.860 But so far, there's been no commitment from the Liberals, the Conservatives, the NDP
00:21:44.240 to actually take that negotiation in good faith and give Alberta what it wants.
00:21:49.980 Only the People's Party has.
00:21:51.300 In a release put out on August 31st,
00:21:54.000 Maxine Bernier said in Red Deer
00:21:55.820 that equalization was supposed to be about ensuring access to a similar level of services
00:22:00.740 across the country, but now it's unfair and inefficient.
00:22:04.240 It disadvantages some provinces and also is based on a formula that simply isn't working.
00:22:10.400 So, but ultimately, there hasn't been a lot of talk about equalization
00:22:13.740 because the provinces where all the votes are,
00:22:16.560 are oftentimes the recipients of equalization payments.
00:22:20.420 So you can't go to Atlantic Canada and say,
00:22:22.540 we're going to stop sending Alberta money to you.
00:22:24.880 You can't go to Quebec and say,
00:22:26.160 we're going to start transferring less federal money.
00:22:28.700 So it's a very dangerous political position to take,
00:22:31.920 but one I think that very much needs to be at the very least discussed.
00:22:36.200 So that's how equalization is factored in.
00:22:39.180 But we are seeing these regional breakdowns here
00:22:41.920 where there's a lot of attention, as always, in Quebec and Ontario,
00:22:46.000 and Erin O'Toole really seems to be driving a Quebec strategy.
00:22:50.120 So will this come at the expense of other provinces?
00:22:52.900 That's the big fear that everyone has.
00:22:54.720 Certainly, we all hope it's not the case,
00:22:56.560 but I was trying to get a sense of that as we were talking on the campaign trail.
00:23:01.320 There was a fair bit of access on the campaign because, you know,
00:23:04.540 every journalist who was traveling with the tour got to put their two questions to Erin O'Toole every day.
00:23:09.900 I won't go and play the litany of them for the last week,
00:23:12.400 but you do have to check out the coverage that we've been publishing at True North if you're interested.
00:23:16.980 I do want to focus in on one, though, because one of my big priorities going into this
00:23:22.380 was trying to square some of the distinctions between Erin O'Toole in last year's leadership race
00:23:28.660 and Erin O'Toole in the general election campaign now.
00:23:32.800 There's always a difference.
00:23:34.260 There's always a difference.
00:23:35.560 You always want to play to the base in one and then try to play to the mainstream population in the other.
00:23:40.220 But on very specific things, like we spoke about a week and a half ago, CBC funding, for example.
00:23:46.780 In the leadership race, it was defund and privatized.
00:23:49.560 In the general election platform, it's,
00:23:51.380 well, let's maybe talk about possibly reviewing the mandate,
00:23:55.380 seeing if maybe there's an alternative business model that might work.
00:23:59.440 So quite a significant distinction.
00:24:01.440 One that I've really wanted to dig into, though,
00:24:04.420 and I don't know if I have an answer to give you,
00:24:06.580 but I want to show the answer that I got anyway,
00:24:09.020 is where Erin O'Toole stands on free votes.
00:24:13.640 So this is, I think, a very important question,
00:24:15.540 because in the leadership race, his success from social conservatives
00:24:19.660 came from the fact that he was saying,
00:24:21.220 listen, I'm not one of you.
00:24:22.420 I'm pro-choice.
00:24:23.200 I'm not going to vote pro-life.
00:24:24.380 I don't want this to be a party that puts forward pro-life legislation.
00:24:28.480 But I will let you vote your conscience.
00:24:30.640 I will let you vote freely.
00:24:31.840 And I will let you represent the things that you need to represent.
00:24:35.460 That was his pitch.
00:24:36.640 And for social conservatives, they said,
00:24:38.100 all right, it's not ideal, but it's either him or Peter McKay.
00:24:41.400 And Peter McKay wants to sell us down the river.
00:24:43.880 They all voted for Derek Sloan or Leslie Lewis first,
00:24:46.920 but then they put Erin O'Toole down their ballot.
00:24:49.380 And that was what gave him the victory.
00:24:51.500 Free vote.
00:24:51.960 If you could kind of distill his leadership campaign
00:24:54.620 into one single promise,
00:24:56.820 that would, for me, be it.
00:24:58.240 Free votes.
00:24:59.440 That was the flagship promise,
00:25:01.400 because that was the one that allowed him to say,
00:25:03.340 I'm the big tent conservative candidate.
00:25:05.920 I'm representing all of the parts of the conservative party.
00:25:09.920 Well, this past weekend, it became candidate day,
00:25:12.720 where all of the opposition parties, the media,
00:25:15.000 started to pluck all these different things from different candidates
00:25:18.000 and try to throw the battle tool and say,
00:25:19.960 well, how do you respond to this?
00:25:21.540 How do you respond to this?
00:25:22.540 One candidate in Dartmouth-Coal Harbour actually had to step down
00:25:26.460 because of sexual harassment or sexual assault allegations,
00:25:30.940 which the party responded to very promptly.
00:25:33.900 You also had Cheryl Gallant, a longtime MP,
00:25:37.040 formerly an Alliance MP in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke,
00:25:40.880 who was maligned by a lot of opposition voices
00:25:44.580 because she said that the same people that brought us the COVID lockdown
00:25:48.460 could bring us a climate lockdown.
00:25:50.960 And this was something that, again, everyone got into a tizzy about.
00:25:54.180 And I'm thinking, well, that sounds reasonable enough
00:25:56.940 because absolutely the whole point of the pandemic lockdown
00:26:00.200 is that the term emergency was used to justify any range of restrictions.
00:26:05.760 So she was pointing out in a video that's now been deleted
00:26:08.740 that, well, the same people are saying that climate change is an emergency.
00:26:12.260 So what are they going to do under the auspices of its emergency status?
00:26:16.780 That was the point that she was raising.
00:26:19.020 But in any case, the media was asking,
00:26:22.140 well, why does she get to stay as a candidate?
00:26:24.460 Like, where's the line?
00:26:25.940 And later on, Aaron O'Toole put out a statement.
00:26:30.000 He was firstly talking about his climate plan in the statement,
00:26:32.560 but then he said,
00:26:33.240 I want to make it clear, this is the plan I'm running on.
00:26:36.300 It is the plan conservatives are running on, all of them.
00:26:39.400 If I am elected prime minister, it is the plan I will implement.
00:26:43.060 If there are any candidates who don't support it or any other part of Canada's recovery plan,
00:26:49.620 they won't be sitting in the caucus of a future conservative government.
00:26:54.220 So there's a little bit to unpack there.
00:26:56.300 So Canada's recovery plan is the name of Aaron O'Toole's platform.
00:27:00.220 It's what he calls the platform.
00:27:01.600 It's the little book that he takes out on the campaign trail and holds up at every stop.
00:27:05.540 That's the entirety of the platform.
00:27:07.120 In that are things about economic recovery, health care, things about seniors,
00:27:12.420 the climate plans in there, moving the embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem's in there,
00:27:17.340 and not introducing pro-life legislation is in there.
00:27:22.860 This is why it's important.
00:27:24.780 Because he's saying in this statement,
00:27:26.220 if there are candidates who don't support the climate plan or any other part of the platform,
00:27:32.020 they will not be able to sit as conservatives.
00:27:34.580 So is he saying here that he's walking back his commitment to free choice and free votes?
00:27:43.240 Now, I asked him about this in King City, Ontario at a campaign stop on Sunday.
00:27:48.100 Okay, lay it out.
00:27:49.380 Which votes are going to be free votes?
00:27:51.620 This is the exchange.
00:27:52.700 Andrew Lawton, True North.
00:27:54.180 During your leadership race last year,
00:27:56.240 you committed often to allowing free votes in caucus.
00:27:59.480 You spoke numerous occasions about the importance of having a Big Ten party.
00:28:03.540 Yet in your statement yesterday,
00:28:05.160 you said if MPs and candidates don't get on board with the climate plan
00:28:08.720 and every single aspect of your platform, they'll be booted from caucus.
00:28:13.120 So specifically, sir, on which issues will you allow free votes?
00:28:16.220 And on which issues will you demand a vote in favour of a particular proposal?
00:28:22.080 We are running on a plan.
00:28:24.280 Canada's recovery plan,
00:28:25.940 which the country needs to get back on its feet.
00:28:28.220 On the first full day of the campaign,
00:28:32.000 we launched our plan.
00:28:33.980 All of our candidates are committed to the plan.
00:28:36.600 It's exactly what the country needs.
00:28:39.720 Jobs, accountability, mental health leadership,
00:28:43.900 preparing ourselves for the next pandemic,
00:28:46.960 and a commitment to getting the budget balanced over the next decade.
00:28:50.760 Everyone will be focused on that plan and a positive campaign.
00:28:54.180 So as you hear there, not really an answer,
00:28:57.000 not a clear answer anyway on,
00:28:59.060 are you committed to free votes?
00:29:00.260 And if so, on which issues?
00:29:01.540 Is it only going to be on social issues?
00:29:03.780 Is it going to be on other things?
00:29:05.000 Or is it going to be on nothing at all?
00:29:07.160 So that would be a question that I'd have.
00:29:09.260 And that's one I'd actually like to hear answered
00:29:11.320 as the campaign progresses.
00:29:13.540 So I wanted to give a cross-section.
00:29:15.380 And interestingly enough,
00:29:16.580 I've been simultaneously accused,
00:29:18.900 oftentimes within minutes of each other,
00:29:20.480 in the last week of being a shill for O'Toole
00:29:22.920 to then being like a shill for Bernier
00:29:24.700 to being a liberal hack.
00:29:26.700 I've been called everything,
00:29:27.720 which I guess means I'm doing something right
00:29:29.200 if people think my coverage is landing on all sides.
00:29:32.000 I'm about the facts.
00:29:32.940 My loyalty is not to a party.
00:29:34.740 I have beliefs.
00:29:35.840 I have issues that I care about.
00:29:37.400 But I'm not here because I want to get
00:29:38.820 a particular color represented.
00:29:40.320 I'm trying to get you the information you need
00:29:43.200 and you want to make a decision.
00:29:45.360 So that's my commitment.
00:29:46.540 If you think I'm on your team or not on your team,
00:29:48.740 that's not the fight that I'm in right now.
00:29:51.260 I'm here to get the facts for you
00:29:52.700 and to bring the debates,
00:29:54.740 bring the election into a realm
00:29:56.280 that the legacy media simply isn't doing
00:29:59.140 on the issues that I know a lot of you care about.
00:30:01.860 So that's the goal.
00:30:02.940 Let me know what you think about it.
00:30:04.520 And we got to take a quick break here.
00:30:06.060 When we come back,
00:30:06.840 we'll talk to Pierre Polyev here on The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:30:09.780 Stay tuned.
00:30:13.060 You're tuned in to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:30:17.760 Welcome back.
00:30:18.740 to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:30:20.220 Just before I hopped on
00:30:21.540 the Conservative campaign plane last week,
00:30:23.760 I took a trip out to Carleton,
00:30:25.800 which is just outside of Ottawa,
00:30:27.820 to sit down with its longtime MP.
00:30:30.540 And now the Conservative candidate there
00:30:32.160 seeking re-election, Pierre Polyev,
00:30:34.420 wanted to chat with him
00:30:35.480 about how his campaign's going,
00:30:37.220 but also what he thinks the big issues are.
00:30:39.800 He's been, I'd say, next to Aaron O'Toole,
00:30:41.960 the most prominent voice
00:30:43.560 in the Conservative Party right now.
00:30:45.680 In fact, some would argue
00:30:46.600 he's been more prominent
00:30:47.860 than Aaron O'Toole at certain points.
00:30:49.960 He served as the Employment Minister.
00:30:51.860 And I know anytime we've had him on the show,
00:30:54.540 everyone always wants to hear what he has to say.
00:30:56.760 So here's my sit down
00:30:57.880 at a park in Greeley, Ontario
00:31:00.220 with Pierre Polyev,
00:31:02.060 Conservative candidate for Carleton.
00:31:03.560 This was an election that certainly everyone knew
00:31:07.000 was coming at some point.
00:31:08.420 Minority governments are not particularly stable.
00:31:11.040 I think the question was more of one
00:31:13.300 about when rather than if.
00:31:15.020 But if you had to characterize
00:31:16.800 the election themes where we are now,
00:31:20.320 I know a lot of people thought
00:31:21.400 it was going to be a pandemic election,
00:31:22.980 but now we have this Afghanistan crisis.
00:31:25.080 When you're knocking on the doors,
00:31:26.200 what is the election actually about to people?
00:31:28.140 Well, people are trying to figure that out
00:31:29.620 because Trudeau caused this election to occur
00:31:32.740 and his campaign has been a Seinfeld campaign,
00:31:36.100 a campaign about nothing.
00:31:37.820 People are sort of waiting.
00:31:39.500 You called this election.
00:31:40.780 Do you have something to tell us?
00:31:42.840 Do you have a big agenda
00:31:44.560 that you have to ask our support for?
00:31:48.020 And the answer is no.
00:31:48.940 He has absolutely nothing new to say.
00:31:51.920 He simply called the election in retrospect
00:31:54.300 because he thought he could get away
00:31:56.960 with securing a majority
00:31:59.740 while in the immediate aftermath
00:32:02.640 of spending a half trillion dollars
00:32:04.440 while people were still afraid of COVID.
00:32:06.860 So I joked earlier today,
00:32:09.080 his slogan should have been quick.
00:32:11.620 No one's looking.
00:32:12.920 Because I think that's how he thought this would go.
00:32:15.680 He'd just call a snap election,
00:32:17.460 partly in the middle of the summer,
00:32:19.260 partly while farmers are out
00:32:20.640 getting ready for harvest.
00:32:22.460 And that people just wouldn't have any time
00:32:25.620 to think or scrutinize
00:32:26.660 and would accidentally secure his majority mandate.
00:32:29.640 And it's not turning out that way at all.
00:32:31.200 There's been a massive backlash against him
00:32:33.200 for calling this election.
00:32:35.740 And then not only that,
00:32:37.640 this is the worst run election campaign
00:32:41.060 the Liberals have ever done.
00:32:41.980 He's gone from the wonder boy to the blunder boy.
00:32:46.180 Every day it seems there's a gaffe,
00:32:48.300 whether it was Liberals saying
00:32:51.260 that the Taliban are their brothers
00:32:54.780 or him true to us admitting
00:32:57.620 he doesn't know anything about monetary policy now
00:33:00.160 when we have among the highest inflation in decades
00:33:04.100 and people can't afford to buy a home.
00:33:06.940 Or this recent gaffe
00:33:08.560 where they are now saying,
00:33:09.840 admitting for the first time
00:33:11.900 that we knew all along,
00:33:13.480 which is that they're going to tax gains
00:33:15.740 on primary residences.
00:33:17.560 These are massive gaffes,
00:33:19.220 any one of which should cost him the election.
00:33:21.380 We've seen this government
00:33:24.180 skate through a lot of pretty difficult things
00:33:28.600 without really being challenged on it.
00:33:31.060 You look at SNC-Lavalin
00:33:32.160 and they followed that by a victory in 2019.
00:33:35.520 Sure, coming down to a minority.
00:33:37.360 The We scandal as well
00:33:38.520 had legs for a while, as we say,
00:33:40.340 but then the government proroged parliament
00:33:42.020 and it seemed like a lot of the scrutiny
00:33:44.200 on that went away.
00:33:45.440 And I remember, as a lot of Canadians do,
00:33:47.100 that press conference
00:33:47.800 where you were showing all of these documents
00:33:49.260 that the government had redacted.
00:33:51.260 And still, I haven't heard We brought up
00:33:52.840 a single day on this campaign.
00:33:55.140 What do you think needs to be done
00:33:57.060 to get Canadians,
00:33:58.480 and by extension, I guess the media,
00:33:59.960 to care about these things?
00:34:01.660 Well, the media will,
00:34:02.760 the mainstream media
00:34:03.600 will never care about any of them
00:34:05.260 because they almost,
00:34:07.420 almost unanimously support Trudeau
00:34:10.100 and want to see him re-elected.
00:34:12.120 Of course, he bought them off
00:34:13.600 with the half-billion-dollar media fund.
00:34:16.240 Let's not forget, though,
00:34:17.200 that the Conservatives won more votes
00:34:19.120 than the Liberals in the last election.
00:34:21.260 He got the lowest share of the votes
00:34:22.620 of any prime minister
00:34:23.700 to be re-elected in Canadian history.
00:34:26.240 So it's not as though
00:34:27.600 he's a particularly popular prime minister.
00:34:30.220 You'd think he was
00:34:31.220 if you just watched the CBC National.
00:34:33.740 But if you look at the data,
00:34:35.360 he's actually quite an unpopular prime minister
00:34:37.800 who's been very lucky
00:34:39.220 about the distribution of vote
00:34:40.660 that has allowed him to preserve power
00:34:42.800 with a very small,
00:34:44.780 but less than a third of voters
00:34:46.680 backing him.
00:34:47.480 So let's talk a little bit
00:34:50.100 about what the Conservative answer
00:34:52.020 to that corruption allegation is
00:34:54.220 because I know the platform this year
00:34:55.680 has some stuff to crack down
00:34:57.360 and give a lot of these conflict of interest
00:34:59.440 and ethics violations
00:35:00.500 that are found to have happened
00:35:02.640 to a bit more teeth
00:35:03.820 in the response to them.
00:35:04.940 But how can you really combat that in practice?
00:35:08.340 Because, I mean, in general,
00:35:09.320 there's, I think, a malaise
00:35:10.340 and a distrust of politicians,
00:35:11.640 but what could a Conservative government
00:35:13.900 do better that would make it
00:35:15.120 so these things don't happen with impunity?
00:35:18.380 Well, for one,
00:35:19.760 there has to be more consequences
00:35:21.140 for guilty findings,
00:35:23.140 particularly compounded
00:35:25.180 and serious guilty findings
00:35:26.480 for politicians
00:35:27.640 violating the Conflict of Interest
00:35:29.680 and Ethics Act.
00:35:30.500 Secondly, I think we have to toughen up
00:35:35.200 the whistleblower protection
00:35:36.880 so that it's easier
00:35:38.120 for people to speak out
00:35:40.020 when they see corruption.
00:35:42.280 But third, I think the people of Canada
00:35:44.160 have to exercise accountability
00:35:45.840 at the ballot box.
00:35:46.880 Ultimately, that's the way our system works.
00:35:49.120 We have a system
00:35:51.340 of democratic accountability
00:35:53.140 more than bureaucratic rules.
00:35:58.700 You know, it is one thing
00:35:59.460 to have public authority
00:36:02.760 like the Ethics Commissioner
00:36:03.880 examine behavior
00:36:05.620 and then compare it to a law
00:36:07.060 and issue a finding,
00:36:08.080 but it's not quite another
00:36:09.120 for the voters to say
00:36:11.020 they've had enough
00:36:11.740 and throw the guy out.
00:36:12.920 And I think that's the ultimate accountability
00:36:14.360 that we can show on Election Day.
00:36:17.540 Let's talk about
00:36:18.300 the financial situation here.
00:36:19.820 We've all seen that PBO report
00:36:21.260 that says we're on track
00:36:22.380 to run up deficits
00:36:23.400 for the next 50 years.
00:36:24.920 At that point,
00:36:25.700 it doesn't even become relevant
00:36:27.000 because it's just
00:36:27.860 so many billions
00:36:28.880 and trillions of dollars
00:36:30.140 of debt
00:36:30.780 and debt service payment
00:36:31.940 and all of that.
00:36:33.340 Realistically,
00:36:34.280 how is a fiscally conservative approach
00:36:36.940 even possible
00:36:37.980 when you're coming in
00:36:39.100 if a conservative government's elected
00:36:40.560 with that much baggage?
00:36:42.240 I know your platform
00:36:43.080 is to balance within 10 years,
00:36:44.680 but practically,
00:36:45.680 how does that actually happen
00:36:47.100 when things are as dire
00:36:48.800 as they are now?
00:36:49.840 Right.
00:36:50.100 Well, good question.
00:36:51.120 I mean,
00:36:51.320 first of all,
00:36:52.420 I don't think it's just practical.
00:36:53.920 I think it's going to be unavoidable.
00:36:56.380 The current deficit
00:36:58.440 is driving inflation.
00:37:01.580 Whenever you create crash,
00:37:02.940 you inflate the price of things.
00:37:05.060 And the government
00:37:06.020 has created
00:37:06.880 $400 billion
00:37:07.800 of M2 money supply,
00:37:10.700 which is to say coins,
00:37:12.700 bills,
00:37:13.400 and bank deposits
00:37:14.280 in just over a year,
00:37:15.640 which is the biggest increase
00:37:16.700 increase in money supply ever.
00:37:19.580 In percentage terms,
00:37:20.660 it's the biggest since 1974.
00:37:23.440 And we remember what happened
00:37:24.620 in the late 70s.
00:37:25.640 We had hyperinflation
00:37:27.160 in the double digits,
00:37:28.680 followed by massive interest rate hikes
00:37:30.820 to nearly 20%.
00:37:32.520 That is,
00:37:33.700 we don't know exactly
00:37:35.580 what the future will bring,
00:37:36.560 but we know that the history
00:37:37.600 of money printing
00:37:38.620 has been a runaway inflation.
00:37:41.560 So,
00:37:42.120 whoever forms government
00:37:43.680 is going to have to rein that in
00:37:44.800 unless we want to continue
00:37:46.160 to see out-of-control
00:37:47.220 price increases
00:37:48.440 that destroy the middle class,
00:37:52.080 drive the poor
00:37:53.360 deeper into poverty,
00:37:54.560 and inflate the wealth
00:37:56.260 of the super rich.
00:37:58.020 I think we probably,
00:37:59.160 when we look back on this
00:38:00.040 and the data comes up,
00:38:00.940 we'll see that
00:38:01.600 this money printing binge
00:38:03.240 the government is on
00:38:04.140 will lead to
00:38:05.840 probably the biggest
00:38:07.540 expansion of the wealth gap
00:38:10.060 in Canadian history
00:38:11.280 as wealthy asset owners,
00:38:14.880 people who hold gold,
00:38:16.300 real estate,
00:38:17.960 stocks,
00:38:19.420 bonds,
00:38:19.940 and other appreciating assets
00:38:21.800 saw their net worth skyrocket
00:38:23.600 while the wages
00:38:25.220 of the working class
00:38:26.360 are chewed up by inflation.
00:38:28.480 So,
00:38:28.620 the answer to that,
00:38:29.280 of course,
00:38:29.580 is to stop printing money
00:38:31.260 and start creating
00:38:32.520 the stuff money buys,
00:38:33.960 build more houses,
00:38:35.040 grow more nutritious food,
00:38:36.520 build pipelines
00:38:37.220 to bring Canadian energy
00:38:38.640 to Canadian consumers.
00:38:40.520 That way,
00:38:41.240 we actually produce
00:38:42.840 the things that dollars buy
00:38:44.400 and thereby increase
00:38:46.120 the value of our dollar
00:38:47.520 relative to the goods
00:38:48.420 we need to purchase.
00:38:49.860 So,
00:38:50.040 we're going to have to get
00:38:51.400 spending back to normal
00:38:52.420 pre-COVID levels
00:38:53.400 as quickly as possible,
00:38:55.540 bring in a pay-as-you-go law
00:38:57.020 to ensure that
00:38:57.840 every new dollar
00:38:58.500 of unbudgeted spending
00:38:59.560 is met with a dollar
00:39:00.520 of savings,
00:39:02.240 and unleash
00:39:03.480 the free enterprise system
00:39:04.760 so businesses and farmers
00:39:06.080 can make more
00:39:06.860 here in Canada.
00:39:08.280 We heard
00:39:08.980 Justin Trudeau say
00:39:10.200 that he doesn't think
00:39:11.320 about monetary policy,
00:39:12.780 and the answer...
00:39:13.940 I believe him.
00:39:15.520 Who doesn't believe him?
00:39:16.660 Like,
00:39:17.000 I don't believe a lot of things.
00:39:18.100 He says,
00:39:18.340 that one I believe.
00:39:19.900 What I found more interesting
00:39:21.340 than that was
00:39:22.100 what he said
00:39:22.980 in response,
00:39:23.980 or kind of to justify it,
00:39:25.120 he said,
00:39:25.260 I don't think about
00:39:25.760 monetary policy,
00:39:26.500 I think of families.
00:39:27.620 What I'm thinking,
00:39:28.080 well,
00:39:28.200 hang on,
00:39:28.740 how does monetary policy
00:39:30.240 not affect families?
00:39:31.380 But there is a question
00:39:32.580 in that,
00:39:33.040 though,
00:39:33.220 which is that,
00:39:33.940 do you think Canadians
00:39:34.800 understand and care
00:39:37.240 about these inflationary issues
00:39:38.680 you're bringing up?
00:39:39.340 Because,
00:39:39.600 again,
00:39:39.820 it does get in the weeds,
00:39:41.120 and a lot of Canadians
00:39:41.860 are thinking,
00:39:42.380 cut the nonsense,
00:39:44.140 what's it going to mean for me?
00:39:45.320 But do you find
00:39:45.980 that that is a discussion
00:39:46.780 that is taking place
00:39:47.680 in Canadian households?
00:39:48.780 Oh,
00:39:48.900 it's taking place
00:39:49.760 in shopping aisles,
00:39:51.320 it's taking place
00:39:52.280 in home showings
00:39:54.880 for,
00:39:56.380 with real estate agents,
00:39:57.600 it's taking place
00:39:58.740 at the gas station
00:39:59.720 when people are filling up
00:40:00.620 their cars.
00:40:01.760 And that's why
00:40:02.480 this deficit issue
00:40:03.360 has gone from the abstract
00:40:04.520 to the highly vivid
00:40:06.240 and practical.
00:40:07.320 People are actually witnessing
00:40:08.800 what deficits do
00:40:09.780 to their cost of living.
00:40:11.460 Whereas,
00:40:12.160 you know,
00:40:12.360 a few years ago
00:40:12.960 it was an abstraction,
00:40:13.880 the consequences
00:40:14.580 were not yet visible.
00:40:16.180 Now,
00:40:16.800 people see
00:40:17.600 what it's doing
00:40:18.700 to their lives.
00:40:19.400 It's chewing up
00:40:20.240 their dollars
00:40:22.260 in the present.
00:40:24.320 So,
00:40:24.800 there's no doubt
00:40:25.560 people make the link
00:40:26.900 between overspending
00:40:28.140 and inflation.
00:40:29.760 They live it,
00:40:30.500 they see it,
00:40:30.960 they feel it.
00:40:32.240 And the fact,
00:40:33.320 I think one of the reasons
00:40:34.040 why Trudeau's in free fall
00:40:35.440 in the polls
00:40:35.940 and why Conservatives
00:40:36.940 are gaining
00:40:37.520 is because people know
00:40:39.100 that if Trudeau's re-elected
00:40:40.280 there will be
00:40:40.900 a continued explosion
00:40:42.540 in inflation
00:40:44.060 and a cost of living crisis.
00:40:46.100 You mentioned earlier
00:40:47.280 that this election
00:40:48.120 you think is about
00:40:48.940 Trudeau seeking a majority.
00:40:50.960 He's had relatively
00:40:52.420 unchecked power
00:40:53.340 with the NDP
00:40:54.020 and the bloc
00:40:54.860 backing him
00:40:55.440 for the last
00:40:56.000 couple of years.
00:40:56.980 But realistically,
00:40:58.060 what do you think
00:40:58.420 the consequences
00:40:59.140 of a Trudeau
00:41:00.100 liberal majority
00:41:00.940 would be?
00:41:01.860 A massive debt crisis.
00:41:03.940 Right now,
00:41:04.560 Canada has about
00:41:05.520 $8.7 trillion
00:41:06.700 of debt,
00:41:07.920 personal,
00:41:09.220 corporate,
00:41:10.300 and government
00:41:10.860 debt combined.
00:41:12.240 That means we have
00:41:13.080 $4 of debt
00:41:14.280 for every $1
00:41:15.720 of GDP.
00:41:18.100 So,
00:41:18.860 a one percentage point
00:41:20.220 increase
00:41:20.700 in the effective
00:41:21.320 interest rate
00:41:22.160 on all debt
00:41:23.140 and Canadian
00:41:23.660 economy
00:41:24.280 will cost
00:41:25.420 $87 billion
00:41:26.260 every year.
00:41:27.180 One percentage point.
00:41:28.180 Or it will cost
00:41:29.600 4% of GDP.
00:41:30.960 Just put that
00:41:31.460 into perspective.
00:41:32.200 Imagine one percentage
00:41:33.440 point increase
00:41:34.380 in the effective
00:41:35.760 interest rate
00:41:36.540 that we all pay
00:41:37.400 on all our debts
00:41:38.280 would cost
00:41:39.500 4% of GDP.
00:41:42.040 At a federal level,
00:41:43.620 a 1%,
00:41:44.400 just in terms
00:41:45.380 of the federal debt,
00:41:46.700 a 1% increase
00:41:47.840 in interest rates
00:41:48.840 means $12 billion
00:41:49.840 in extra costs.
00:41:51.100 That's much more
00:41:53.660 than a one point
00:41:55.160 increase in the GST.
00:41:56.980 So,
00:41:57.460 you start to think
00:41:58.640 about the enormous
00:41:59.680 costs that we're
00:42:00.700 going to face
00:42:01.340 when interest rates
00:42:02.120 eventually rise.
00:42:03.960 That problem
00:42:04.820 will only worsen
00:42:05.440 if we re-elect
00:42:06.240 a Prime Minister
00:42:07.000 who's determined
00:42:07.660 to further
00:42:08.420 in debt the nation.
00:42:10.000 We will face
00:42:11.720 a serious debt crisis
00:42:12.940 and that will bring
00:42:13.980 a catastrophic
00:42:15.200 human tragedy.
00:42:16.980 So,
00:42:17.380 what we need to do
00:42:18.340 is make a shift
00:42:19.480 now away from
00:42:20.300 a credit card
00:42:20.860 economy
00:42:21.240 to a paycheck
00:42:21.820 economy
00:42:22.440 to unleash
00:42:23.440 the productive
00:42:23.940 forces of our
00:42:24.720 economy
00:42:25.140 to make more
00:42:26.660 costs less
00:42:27.760 paychecks
00:42:28.460 not debt.
00:42:30.060 Thank you very much.
00:42:31.000 Thank you.
00:42:31.360 Great to be with you,
00:42:32.040 Andrew.
00:42:32.640 That was Conservative
00:42:33.560 candidate for Carlton
00:42:35.060 Pierre Polyev
00:42:36.160 here on The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:42:37.580 Great sitting down
00:42:38.200 with him
00:42:38.580 in eastern Ontario.
00:42:40.680 That does it for us
00:42:41.880 for today.
00:42:42.660 We will be back
00:42:43.280 with more of
00:42:43.980 Canada's
00:42:44.480 Most Irreverent Talk
00:42:45.480 show on Friday
00:42:46.380 and following
00:42:47.420 not just the election
00:42:48.300 but I'm also going to
00:42:49.040 dig in on Friday
00:42:49.840 to Ontario's
00:42:50.860 vaccine passport
00:42:52.200 announcement
00:42:52.740 which came out
00:42:53.800 today.
00:42:54.780 This is a
00:42:55.620 very big one
00:42:56.580 and one that I think
00:42:57.560 will need to be
00:42:59.080 delved into
00:42:59.640 in a lot of detail
00:43:00.360 but there was so much
00:43:01.320 to talk to
00:43:01.820 election-wise today.
00:43:02.800 I figured I'd
00:43:03.220 actually take the time
00:43:04.040 to go through it
00:43:04.740 and bring that up
00:43:05.820 on Friday
00:43:06.240 but that is coming.
00:43:07.300 Thanks so much
00:43:07.800 for all of you
00:43:08.320 for tuning in.
00:43:09.420 We'll talk to you soon.
00:43:10.180 Thank you.
00:43:10.580 God bless and good day.
00:43:11.640 Thanks for listening
00:43:12.820 to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:43:14.360 Support the program
00:43:15.080 by donating to True North
00:43:16.320 at www.tnc.news.