Juno News - September 03, 2026


Did Ford torpedo the Canada-U.S. trade deal?


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23 minutes

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3,860

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Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
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00:00:00.000 Well, Prime Minister Carney is denying reports it was Ontario Premier Doug Ford who vetoed
00:00:12.000 a proposed trade deal between the United States and Canada last month.
00:00:16.000 The decisions on trade are the decisions of the Government of Canada. I'm the Prime Minister.
00:00:23.000 Ultimately, I am responsible with the Cabinet for those decisions. We take those decisions in the round.
00:00:29.000 We took those decisions. I enumerated. I enumerated on Saturday and can repeat.
00:00:36.100 And the chief negotiator gave interviews. Monsieur Leblanc, others have given interviews.
00:00:41.860 Those of us who are at the table or next to the table, if you will, know exactly why an accumulation of issues, each of them serious enough, okay?
00:00:53.060 The issues with respect to language and culture, enough to not have a deal.
00:00:58.160 The issues Mr. Gray just asked about with respect to restrictions on future trade deals.
00:01:03.780 Restrictions on our sovereignty enough not to have a deal.
00:01:07.100 Not according to the National Post's John Iveson, who says the official reasons given that you just heard there,
00:01:14.620 like last minute changes by the Americans were intended to hide the real reason that Ford strongly objected to the deal.
00:01:22.740 This headline in the National Post, Doug Ford's veto of a U.S. trade deal cannot stand.
00:01:30.220 Ford privately refused to meet a key U.S. demand to restore the wine and spirit sales to provincial store shelves.
00:01:40.600 The premier refused to accept any deal that allowed tariffs on Canadian auto exports to the United States.
00:01:46.760 Carney insists he made the decision to walk away from the deal, not Ford.
00:01:53.500 Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson rejected the idea that two countries are at war, laughing off the idea Canada could stand up to the United States militarily.
00:02:03.880 Mark, it's wondering if we're now in a tit-for-tat trade war with Canada.
00:02:06.720 Well, I don't think you can be in a tit-for-tat with someone who's 13 times larger than you are.
00:02:11.440 They say they're doing okay.
00:02:13.920 What else are they going to say?
00:02:15.160 Look, I think this is very unfortunate that Prime Minister Carney has turned this into a political shouting match.
00:02:23.800 I mean, we're not at war with Canada. How are we going to be at war with Canada?
00:02:26.560 Are they going to take their two submarines from the Edmonton Mall and sick them on us?
00:02:31.920 He came to power on an anti-American, anti-Trump agenda.
00:02:38.220 He was 20 points behind in the polls, and then he started this.
00:02:41.420 And it's unfortunate that he's not doing what's best for the Canadian people.
00:02:45.320 He's doing what is best for the Liberal Party, what's best for Mark Carney.
00:02:49.060 And in the long run, the Canadian people are going to see through that.
00:02:52.600 And I will say that they were offered the best trade deal of any country on the globe.
00:02:59.600 And he chose to walk away from it at the last minute.
00:03:02.720 Canada's finance ministers expected to hold talks with Besant in North Carolina
00:03:08.100 during a two-day gathering of G20 nations.
00:03:11.420 It would be the first real high-level meeting between the two sides since the collapse of
00:03:16.460 trade negotiations last month. Our guest today is University of Toronto economics professor
00:03:22.280 Joseph Steinberg. Welcome, professor. Hi, thanks for having me.
00:03:27.380 Well, I noticed that you did listen to that clip by Scott Bessent, kind of taking a shot at Canada
00:03:34.880 militarily suggesting that we're really not at war uh with the canadians that it really makes
00:03:41.840 no sense for canada to do that given the relative size with the united states 13 times bigger than
00:03:48.400 than canada's economy what do you make of things like that i mean i think you have to just try to
00:03:54.160 laugh uh clips like that off to be honest uh i view that as just another contribution to the uh
00:04:02.160 you know, back and forth snarky memes, if you will, nothing more than that, to be quite honest.
00:04:10.120 You know, with one exception, which is that there is a kernel of truth in what the secretary said,
00:04:17.640 in that the fact that the U.S. economy is so much bigger than our economy does mean that,
00:04:23.580 you know, the trade actions from either side, U.S. tariffs on us, our own tariffs on them,
00:04:29.500 they do kind of disproportionately harm us if there's one thing that he said that's true it's
00:04:34.620 that now Prime Minister Carney meantime is denying reports of the National Post that it was
00:04:40.780 Ontario Premier Doug Ford who essentially vetoed the proposed deal last month both sides seem to
00:04:48.700 think but think that they had we had a deal especially Trump who came out and said deal is
00:04:53.960 done and then it all collapsed in a heap and according to that particular story it was actually
00:05:00.100 Ford who undermined those negotiations what do you make of that well it's hard to know for sure
00:05:07.960 you know we haven't seen any text of either the preliminary deal or what were the terms of the
00:05:13.840 deal that we ultimately walked away from I will say that it was you know I found it awfully
00:05:22.140 interesting that the premier was so quiet in the week leading up to that deal collapsing,
00:05:28.940 so quiet about whether or not he might lift the embargo on American alcohol products,
00:05:34.640 quiet about the implications for the Ontarian economy, etc. I will say that if indeed it is
00:05:41.700 the case that Premier Ford essentially scuttled the deal, I'm not surprised. I had a feeling all
00:05:50.240 along that this would be a distinct possibility. And yet the prime minister said that was not the
00:05:57.060 case. And his point is, no, this is up to the prime minister of Canada to make a decision like
00:06:03.820 that, not up to one of the premiers. What degree of importance do you ascribe to that, if anything?
00:06:12.540 Well, I think it would look, it wouldn't look very good for the prime minister to have his
00:06:19.460 own efforts to negotiate a deal, I think, again, scuttled by, you know, a provincial
00:06:25.800 premier who is, I think, supposed to be kind of, you know, operating at a level, at least
00:06:31.020 one level below the prime minister, you know, and we had all the, you know, premiers loudly
00:06:35.900 proclaiming in public that we were all kind of on Team Canada, we were all, you know,
00:06:39.560 shooting for the same goal, if you will.
00:06:43.240 But, you know, the prime minister does not have the power to unilaterally force the premiers to abandon their alcohol embargo.
00:06:53.360 He has to convince them to do that.
00:06:55.980 And Doug Ford does have the ability to, whatever political pressure the prime minister tries to exert, if Doug Ford doesn't want to end that embargo, as far as I know, that's a decision that he can make.
00:07:07.900 but the reasons that the prime minister gave run counter to the suggestions that it was for that
00:07:16.140 did it which kind of feeds into the whole narrative growing narrative that the prime
00:07:21.100 minister has not been entirely honest whether it's about the bridge or whether it's about the
00:07:26.280 condo bailout and now the trade deals it's like a nagging things that have come up time and time
00:07:32.260 again that the Prime Minister is not being honest about this sort of thing, having given a bunch of
00:07:38.340 different reasons, like it was the Americans who made last-minute changes, it was a cultural and
00:07:43.860 linguistic issue relative to Quebec, that it was a sovereignty issue relative to Canada's power to
00:07:50.860 negotiate other free trade deals. Is that something that you consider important here?
00:07:58.640 Look, I think it's important for the Prime Minister to be transparent with the Canadian
00:08:03.840 public about what's going on. I don't think I have enough information to say whether he's
00:08:09.040 being dishonest. Again, I don't know for sure whether Doug Ford did ultimately scuttle the
00:08:14.640 deal or not. We don't know exactly what the US demands around digital culture, if you will,
00:08:21.680 were. We don't even really know for sure to what extent Howard Letnick came in at the last minute
00:08:27.840 and really did kind of change the terms of the agreement around tariffs on autos.
00:08:33.060 Whether trucks were always excluded, whether they were actually explicitly included
00:08:39.240 and then that was taken away, or whether there just was kind of a big misunderstanding
00:08:42.100 and the two sides were never actually aligned on that at all.
00:08:45.860 It is really hard to know.
00:08:49.120 That said, I do think that the reporting does have a lot of validity in that,
00:08:57.480 You know, there was always, you know, convincing Doug Ford to back down from the alcohol embargo
00:09:02.860 was always going to be a really big problem.
00:09:05.360 That's not something that is in the premier's political interest.
00:09:09.240 You know, continuing this going and keeping this fight going is something that he thinks
00:09:12.840 makes him look really good, regardless of whether or not it undermines the prime minister's
00:09:18.820 efforts.
00:09:19.140 This is not the first time that the premier has undermined our negotiations with the United
00:09:23.820 States.
00:09:24.100 I'll remind you that back in the fall, we almost had a deal that I think in broad strokes looked quite similar to the one that ultimately just fell through.
00:09:32.640 But that deal back in the fall was, you know, completely sidelined by the premier's intervention with the, you know, the advertisements with Reagan's anti-tariff words that were played at the World Series.
00:09:47.580 Right after that, you know, all of our negotiations with the United States completely stopped.
00:09:51.960 So I don't know enough to say whether the prime minister is being dishonest.
00:09:56.940 But what I do know is that the premier, Doug Ford, does have a history of intervening in our negotiations with the United States to the detriment of the country.
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00:11:17.100 Yeah, that seems to be the issue of U.S. produced spirits and wine seems to be the one thing that
00:11:23.580 he's got for leverage. And I guess he seems to be in no big hurry to give that up. Problem being
00:11:30.640 that if that really was the reason that it potentially makes him, meaning the prime minister,
00:11:36.560 look weak because it means that he can't agree to a deal that he otherwise would have okayed,
00:11:43.260 if you know what I mean. I think that that's right. I mean, I do think that it does make
00:11:49.600 the prime minister look weak to his counterparts in the United States that he's trying to work
00:11:54.720 with and negotiate with. I think he makes him look weak domestically as well. It makes it look
00:12:01.060 like the premier is really the one who's in the driver's seat in all of this. And in that,
00:12:06.320 I think it's really unfortunate. And you've also written about the wine and spirit issue
00:12:12.840 in, I believe it was an op-ed in the Toronto Star. I take it you're not a big fan of using that as
00:12:21.620 leverage against the Americans? Well, I'm not a big fan of the alcohol embargo. And I would also
00:12:27.640 say that I don't really believe that it does contain any meaningful leverage for us.
00:12:33.660 You know, I think some of the important context here is that we put this alcohol embargo in place on the same day that U.S. tariffs initially went on Canada all the way back in March of 2025.
00:12:47.640 And that alcohol embargo has been maintained ever since then, even when, you know, just a week later, the vast majority of our exports were actually exempted from those tariffs.
00:12:58.460 You know, the USMCA or KUSMA exemption was granted, and only a small chunk of our exports
00:13:04.880 ended up getting hit with tariffs, but didn't change the calculus there, even though that
00:13:08.640 changed the federal government's calculus around retaliating with tariffs.
00:13:12.940 You know, the federal government ultimately lifted its retaliatory tariffs in recognition
00:13:15.880 of the fact that Canada was, you know, in large part being spared at the time from President
00:13:22.000 Trump's, you know, global trade war, if you will.
00:13:24.380 um you know i will also say that in terms of leverage i i don't buy it you know uh the premier
00:13:33.620 likes to say that the lcbo is the single biggest alcohol purchaser in north america maybe the world
00:13:38.700 and maybe that's true but being a single biggest purchaser does not mean that you have a big share
00:13:44.140 of the market right uh you know being the biggest single biggest buyer is not ultimately does not
00:13:51.240 mean much in the grand scheme of things when you look at the numbers. So if you look at the numbers
00:13:54.980 in 2024, the U.S. spirits industry sold $37 billion at home, exported $2.5 billion about
00:14:03.000 worldwide. Canada in total accounted for just a little bit over $200 million worth of those sales.
00:14:10.280 So roughly one half of 1%. I don't see that as being meaningful leverage, to be quite honest.
00:14:16.380 But regardless of whether it contains any leverage or not, we've had this embargo in place
00:14:21.100 for a year and a half. And what has it gotten us? Just more tariffs on us. That's it, right?
00:14:26.420 I predicted that this would happen several months ago, that the alcohol embargo would be used as
00:14:30.920 pretext under the U.S. law, whether it's justified or not economically. It does help the president
00:14:38.480 craft a legal pretext for levying additional tariffs on us. And that's exactly what happened.
00:14:43.400 So just in short, I don't buy that this embargo really does create any meaningful economic
00:14:48.200 leverage for us. And the only thing that it seems to have gotten for us is more pain rather than
00:14:55.040 putting us on better footing in our dealings with the US. Well, how do you feel about the
00:14:59.940 strategy of trying to wait Trump out past the midterms? He's going to be president for a couple
00:15:06.220 more years, maybe basically rag the puck for a while until he's gone. I think in large part,
00:15:13.200 that is what we have to do. I will also say that it's not just about waiting out the president
00:15:19.120 himself, but it is also about waiting out the court process. There are already lawsuits ongoing
00:15:25.640 about the president's new global tariff scheme, the one that he instituted to resurrect the global
00:15:32.800 tariffs that were knocked down by the Supreme Court. I have to imagine that there will very soon
00:15:38.060 be lawsuits about the new 50% tariffs on Canada.
00:15:43.400 I think that there's a good chance
00:15:45.200 that both lawsuits actually ultimately prevail
00:15:47.420 and that these tariffs are ruled unconstitutional,
00:15:50.640 which would be a great thing for us.
00:15:52.660 And in a way, you know,
00:15:54.420 to the extent that we actually retaliate
00:15:56.200 against these new 50% tariffs specifically,
00:15:59.680 that actually undermines our own legal case, if you will,
00:16:02.840 because it does strengthen the Trump administration's
00:16:05.840 legal pretext under U.S. law for levying these kinds of tariffs. It makes the 50% tariff look
00:16:11.160 a little bit more proportional to kind of the actions that we have taken to quote unquote
00:16:16.020 discriminate against U.S. commerce, according to U.S. law. Again, you know, I'm not saying that we
00:16:21.720 are actually discriminating against them, but I'm saying that, you know, this legal pretext doesn't
00:16:26.320 work in our favor. I will say that a lot of people are holding out hope for the midterms.
00:16:31.500 I don't hold out much hope that anything will meaningfully change after the beginning of November.
00:16:38.200 You know, there is a good chance that the Democrats will take both houses of Congress at this point.
00:16:42.820 You know, the odds are slightly better than even that that will be the outcome, according to prediction markets right now.
00:16:51.460 But if that's...
00:16:52.000 Last question.
00:16:52.400 Go ahead.
00:16:53.180 Sorry, please finish your thought.
00:16:54.500 All I was going to say is that that's kind of the best case for us.
00:16:57.920 And even if a Democrat-led Congress passed some legislation to repeal all of Trump's tariffs and revoke all of his legal authorities to impose tariffs to begin with, which is, in fact, precisely what a bill that Chuck Schumer introduced, I think, this morning is going to do exactly that.
00:17:16.000 But even if something like that does pass, you know, the reality is that the president is just going to veto it.
00:17:21.040 The Democrats are never going to have a big enough majority in the Senate to override a presidential veto.
00:17:25.380 And so the tariffs are going to be with us, you know, for the remainder of the Trump administration is the reality in some way or another.
00:17:32.580 The best thing that we can do is put ourselves on the best legal and diplomatic footing for getting those tariffs, you know, lowered as much as possible once he's out of office.
00:17:41.600 I agree with that.
00:17:43.380 Last question about the use of energy as a bargaining chip, the threats of cutting off oil to the Americans and electricity for that matter.
00:17:53.400 and the rift that it's created, at least as far as oil goes with the Western provinces in the East,
00:18:00.140 because this is one of the things that has become aggravated or illuminated
00:18:04.260 by this whole trade dispute with the Americans is that we don't see eye to eye,
00:18:09.840 whether you're from Western Canada or Eastern Canada,
00:18:12.200 on the issue of using energy as a club to beat the Americans over the head with.
00:18:17.960 What do you make of that?
00:18:19.000 Well, let me just first say something brief about cutting off electricity, because I think that's a quite separate issue from cutting off oil exports or tariffing oil exports or what have you.
00:18:30.460 The electricity thing that Ford is advocating for is just incredibly dumb in that, yes, we export energy to the United States, but we also import a lot of energy from the United States.
00:18:43.680 Ontario imports quite a bit of energy at different times of the year. 0.91
00:18:46.820 We also import a lot of natural gas, a lot of the natural gas that Ontario uses.
00:18:52.420 Some of it does originate in Canada, but guess what?
00:18:54.500 It crosses through Michigan.
00:18:56.580 And so you have to imagine that the U.S. has just as much power to symmetrically retaliate
00:19:03.860 against us if we were to do something like that.
00:19:05.860 And again, that disproportionate size of the different sizes of our economies and the kind
00:19:13.640 the disproportionate importance of all of these trade flows for us versus them, it just makes that
00:19:18.280 idea, you know, an incredible folly. And I, you know, I have to imagine that it's not going to
00:19:23.880 happen. When it comes to oil, oil, I think is, you know, is more viable. I think that
00:19:30.280 if really what we wanted to do was punish the Americans and even raise some tax revenue in
00:19:35.180 the process, an export tax on oil would economically be the most successful strategy
00:19:42.060 that we have. That's where the single biggest kind of point of economic leverage that we have
00:19:46.380 is, I believe. That said, I don't think it is likely to happen. And I think it's politically
00:19:56.220 a bad idea, both domestically and internationally. Internationally, it's a bad idea in part because,
00:20:02.140 well, I think that it has maybe the highest probability of creating some economic leverage
00:20:08.140 for us, it also has the highest probability of causing the U.S. to retaliate in a far more
00:20:14.260 drastic manner than they have so far. It's an extremely high risk, high variance strategy,
00:20:19.500 if you will. And so, you know, maybe it has the greatest chance of success. But if we're at all
00:20:26.100 risk averse, I think it's extremely dangerous. You know, and then when it comes to the domestic
00:20:31.480 political issue, you mentioned that as well. This is not something that the Western provinces have
00:20:37.580 any appetite for. And I will also say that doing something like this is going to even further
00:20:43.660 kind of drive a rift between the East and the West. And Premier Ford's actions are already
00:20:49.360 doing just that, right? I mean, they really are kind of drawing a line in between, right in the
00:20:54.340 middle of our country, such that the premier of one province can kind of undermine a trade deal
00:21:01.020 that is potentially to the benefit of the country as a whole. And in reality, is it a particular
00:21:06.800 benefit to the Western provinces. They're not exposed to the auto tariffs. They're not exposed
00:21:11.620 to the steel and aluminum tariffs. And so getting a great deal and putting ourselves on better
00:21:16.420 footing with the US and perhaps stabler footing for the near future, that's obviously going to
00:21:22.100 put the Western provinces in a great position. But the energy thing is just going to kind of go
00:21:28.860 even further in that direction, kind of, I think, even deepening the divides between the East and
00:21:34.800 the West in terms of our domestic politics. Given the kind of difficult issues that the
00:21:40.720 prime minister is already dealing with, wrangling Ford, wrangling Quebec, I have to imagine that
00:21:46.800 that's not a route that we plan to go down. Okay. Professor, thank you so much for coming
00:21:53.220 on the show. How do people follow you online? Well, you can go to my website, JoeSteinberg.com.
00:21:59.040 You can also follow me on X, you know, Twitter, as most people still call it, I think,
00:22:03.520 at jbsteinberg um but you know go to my website it's a good place to start you can you know read
00:22:08.700 some of my research links to some of the other places where you can kind of connect with me or
00:22:12.640 there as well fantastic thank you so much for coming on the show we appreciate it yeah you're
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