00:04:36.500you have a new leader who is, in actuality, bringing a fair bit of hope and momentum
00:04:42.660towards Canadians. Pierre Polyev is doing well. He is doing well. He is not the scary,
00:04:49.520evil conservative boogeyman that the Liberals have tried to make him out to be. Yesterday,
00:04:54.220the Liberal Party was tweeting nonstop from all its accounts about how Conservatives are going to
00:04:58.640roll back abortion rights, and they're trying to do this. Again, abortion and assault rifles. These
00:05:03.100the two things the liberals talk about when their backs are up against the wall but it didn't work
00:05:09.660it did not work now i thought this was going to be close i thought the conservatives were
00:05:14.460going to be within five percent of the liberals i was correct although it was on the other end of
00:05:18.460it conservatives were ahead by less than five points rather than behind the liberals and
00:05:23.740conservatives were both downplaying expectations right up until the polls closed and even a little
00:05:28.300little bit after. But the Liberals threw everything they had at this. The Liberals threw everything.
00:05:33.980They had cabinet ministers knocking on doors. Remember this photo of Ahmed Hassan? He was
00:05:39.040going there. And do you remember if you, I don't know if we have the close-up, the woman's face
00:05:44.140when, ah, there we go. Evidently, that poor woman who recoiled when a Liberal cabinet minister came
00:05:50.420to her door was far more representative of the people of Toronto St. Paul's than anyone else.
00:05:55.840I decided given the results and what happened yesterday we had to memorialize that pivotal
00:06:02.800moment in a key way and what better more Canadian way than this yes that is a Canadian heritage
00:06:09.480minute for you there it is part of our history so we've had some fun about this I'm going to
00:06:15.460continue to have some fun about this Sheila Copps interestingly enough the former deputy
00:06:20.180prime minister herself took to Twitter late last night as she probably shouldn't do and said you
00:06:25.820have to wonder why the Tories with a 20% lead in the national polls didn't do better in a riding
00:06:31.400with a 15% Jewish vote. Maybe the community likes liberal party policies. So she thinks that, oh,
00:06:39.260if all the Jews voted, well, all the Jews voted liberal, that's why conservatives didn't win
00:06:43.980when they should have. Well, maybe just maybe that's not the way it works. For starters,
00:06:49.280ethnic groups are not a monolith. But if there is a quote unquote Jewish vote,
00:06:53.840I think that was a lot more in line with the conservatives, which is why the liberals just like scrambled to get Anthony Housefather, the pro-Israel, one of like the only two pro-Israel MPs in the liberal caucus, to go down and campaign in St. Paul's because they were worried, and rightfully so, that a lot of Jews in that riding didn't want to vote liberal anymore, even though they had for much of, well, the last, you know, 35 years or so.
00:07:20.200So what's interesting here, if we look at this, and by the way, this was a by-election.
00:07:44.300Elections Canada was counting until 4.44 a.m. this morning.
00:07:48.380so it was great because if he and he was in the lead until like the last ballots were added uh
00:07:54.600sorry leslie church was in the lead until the last ballots were added so if you were a liberal that
00:07:58.960went to bed before 4 30 a.m uh you were thinking great we won hallelujah i politics even uh had
00:08:05.780declared the liberals the winner they just like wrote the story declared the liberals the winner
00:08:09.720and then just like went to bed and said job well done and then they wake up at i don't know 6 a.m
00:08:14.500next morning and are like oh holy crap we made a little bit of a boo-boo there but what's happening
00:08:20.820is you have now this panic this panic of people trying to figure out what this means sherry de
00:08:25.700nova who's a former new democrat in parkdale high park provincially she had tweeted out that this is
00:08:31.540a sign the alt-right is taking over the alt-right well if the alt-right were elected in toronto
00:08:39.460St. Paul's we've got bigger problems here maybe just maybe your framing of the so-called alt-right
00:08:46.320is not accurate that's not how Canadian voters not how Toronto voters are viewing the Conservative
00:08:52.100Party of Canada when stacked up against the Liberal Party of Canada under Justin Trudeau
00:08:57.700now we have not yet heard from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau he is set to have a press conference
00:09:02.780any minute now and we'll try to get some clips and reaction from that as it comes in we did have
00:09:08.360Chrystia Freeland speaking just moments ago to reporters in Toronto. She was making an announcement
00:09:13.440about something to do with rural Ontario municipalities, but of course no one had a
00:09:17.620single question about that announcement. All the questions she took were from reporters about the
00:09:23.460Toronto St. Paul's by-election. This was the first one from Marika Walsh of the Globe and Mail.
00:09:29.220Deputy Prime Minister, can the Prime Minister still stay on to lead the Liberal Party into the
00:09:34.040next election given that you just lost one of the safest seats in the entire country last night?
00:09:40.120Yes, he certainly can. Can you explain why? Because everybody we're hearing from behind the scenes
00:09:45.560believes that the result last night means catastrophic losses across the country. If
00:09:50.280you cannot win in Toronto under Justin Trudeau, why should anybody believe you can win anywhere
00:09:56.840else under him. Our government is focused on working hard for Canada and Canadians and on
00:10:05.440delivering results for Canada and Canadians. That is what the prime minister is focused on.
00:10:11.640That is what we are all focused on. The prime minister is committed to leading us into the
00:10:17.500next election and he has our support. Now, whether Justin Trudeau himself will have a bit more
00:10:25.960self-awareness than that, I don't know. It's funny, as Chrystia Freeland was singing, I have a very
00:10:31.460bad taste in music. It's one of my most off-putting qualities. I have a few of them, but my taste in
00:10:37.240music is one of them. I listen to horrendous 90s adult contemporary music, but as my wife says,
00:10:43.920if they don't play it in a Winners, you probably don't listen to it. So anyway, that's my little
00:10:48.780bias there. But as Freeland was talking, I was hearing Dido in my head, I will go down with this
00:10:55.200ship uh that is basically christia freeland right now she is hitching herself so closely
00:11:00.480to justin trudeau's wagon that there is no wiggle room there is no post-political future for christia
00:11:06.240freeland and by the way if the liberals aren't safe in toronto st paul's university rosedale
00:11:11.360where liberal mp christia freeland is the liberal mp uh sounds redundant but that's the point of it
00:11:18.000is the that that one's not necessarily safe i mean imagine if what would happen if all of these
00:11:23.840ridings that the Torontos have been very cushy and comfy and cozy in are now all of a sudden up
00:11:28.480for grabs and they need to devote their campaign resources to just not going down to four seats
00:11:34.240that's what we're basically looking at right now I think we I don't know if we have a graphic of
00:11:39.240it but David Coletto who's a pollster wrote a really interesting analysis on there where he
00:11:44.580says this is a swing big enough that if you extrapolate it it could wipe out 55 liberal
00:11:50.660seats in Ontario. He said this was a 25-point swing between how the Liberals were in St. Paul's
00:11:57.020in the last election and how they are now, a 25-point swing. So if that's going to happen
00:12:02.140here and you kind of extrapolate that to other so-called safe Liberal seats, this is the
00:12:06.980Liberals potentially losing 55 seats in Ontario. Now, campaigns are won and lost based on how you
00:12:14.120deploy your resources in a lot of ways. It's not just about whether you have the best ideas,
00:12:19.040the best slogan the best hair uh campaigns are in many ways about where you choose to devote your
00:12:24.960energy the phone calls the canvassers all of that so just imagine a campaign in which the liberals
00:12:31.120who right now have you know 100 and some odd seats a minority but enough have to devote all
00:12:35.600their resources just to holding on to ridings like saint paul's to hold on to christia freeland's
00:12:42.480riding where in an ideal world the liberals shouldn't have to spend more than five cents
00:12:46.800to run a campaign and now all of a sudden they have to spend their money there they're never
00:12:51.280going to be able to win seats that the conservatives have in other parts of the riding they're never
00:12:55.760going to be able to hold on to swing ridings they have to deploy resources just to not get decimated
00:13:02.960that's what's basically happening here and by the way resources will be a heck of a lot more finite
00:13:08.160if no liberals are wanting to show up to the polls liberals aren't wanting to put up lawn signs
00:13:14.000Liberals aren't wanting to volunteer. They aren't wanting to go knock on doors, which is what we
00:13:18.300were getting a sense of in the lead up to the St. Paul's by-election. Even people that were
00:13:21.860just begrudgingly voting liberal because they are liberals were not enthusiastic about it.
00:13:27.800They were not happy about it. They weren't excited about it at all. And again, when you just look at
00:13:33.740those numbers and he gets just, you know, five, 600 votes more than the liberal did compared to
00:13:39.940the Conservatives being behind by 24% last time, this is catastrophic for Justin Trudeau.
00:13:50.500Now, Justin Trudeau did put out a statement. He put out a statement today. And in this statement,
00:13:55.740it makes it sound like he's not going anywhere at all. He says, I want to thank the volunteers
00:13:59.420and candidates for putting their name forward, participating, including Leslie Church, yada,
00:14:03.820yada, yada. He congratulates Don Stewart. He says he wants to thank the people of,
00:14:08.280This line, I think, rings a bit hollow.
00:14:11.040Most of all, I want to thank the people of Toronto St. Paul's for exercising your right to vote and making your voice heard.
00:14:17.220I really don't think he's that grateful to the voters of St. Paul's right now, Justin Trudeau.
00:14:21.540He says, this was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear your concerns and frustrations.
00:14:28.680These are not easy times, and it is clear I and my entire team have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel.
00:14:38.280we will never stop working. They want you to stop working. Canadians want you to stop working,
00:14:44.300Prime Minister. That's the reason they voted against your Liberal, because you've been doing
00:14:48.460stuff. Anyway, we will never stop working and fighting to make sure you have what you need
00:14:52.760to get through these tough times. My focus is on your successes, and that's where it's going to
00:14:58.020stay. There is a bit more humility there than there was when Trudeau was asked about polling,
00:15:04.780well any time but even a couple of weeks ago he was asked about polling you may remember on power
00:15:09.320and politics and this is how he justified being 20 points behind the conservatives in the polls
00:15:13.980despite that optimistic picture I mean the country is still angry you can see it in in the mood and
00:15:19.760increasingly prime minister a lot of them are mad at you right I know you say you want to beat
00:15:23.820Pierre Polyev you keep coming back to that but what if you are the reason the liberals can't
00:15:28.940beat the conservatives in the next election where where do you factor that into your thought process
00:15:32.640Well, I think, first of all, Canadians are not in a decision mode right now.
00:15:37.780You know, what you tell a pollster, if they ever manage to reach you,
00:15:42.660is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign.
00:15:47.040And fundamentally, and it's not just Canada, but everywhere around the world,
00:15:51.180and indeed I was talking with this with other leaders at the G7
00:15:54.580and in Switzerland at the peace conference for Ukraine,
00:15:57.460I mean, everywhere people are struggling with high inflation, with cost of living issues,
00:16:05.340with interest rates, with housing challenges, with child care challenges, all these things.
00:16:10.500We are doing better than many countries.
00:16:13.120It doesn't make a difference to someone who can't pay for their groceries, but people
00:16:17.880are everywhere facing a certain amount of frustration.
00:16:20.840And I truly believe that as we choose to step up on solving those challenges, to contrast
00:16:27.440with a political vision that so far consists from the Conservatives of just making people
00:16:34.060more angry and saying everything is broken, I know Canadians are pragmatic people who focus
00:16:38.940on solutions. And that's exactly what we're going to be doing. Canadians were not in decision mode,
00:16:46.920believe it or not. Well, maybe Canadians aren't in decision mode when they're talking to Abacus
00:16:51.920or Ipsos or Angus Reid or anything like that. But Canadians, at least those in Toronto St. Paul's,
00:16:57.440were very much in decision mode yesterday.
00:17:00.860And the decision they made in a riding that, again,
00:17:03.720has been liberal since 1993, has elected liberals for years,
00:17:08.800that in that riding, in that riding of all ridings,
00:17:11.980they made a decision, and the decision was,
00:17:14.320we don't want anything to do with Justin Trudeau and the liberals.
00:17:17.780Now, again, there's always a risk in by-elections
00:38:52.340There hasn't even been much informal discussion about next time post Trudeau leadership in
00:39:00.700liberal party and it hasn't been enforced by above it's been consensual liberals have not felt that
00:39:06.220it was proper that uh a leader who gave them a decade in power or nearly um owes is owed some
00:39:15.340deference on these questions um that's gone at least privately they are now talking um the next
00:39:22.620question is you know is it going to is there going to be public uh statements um will any sitting
00:39:29.420member of caucus. Will any of the half-dozen cabinet ministers who left on more or less
00:39:33.820peaceful terms, people like Navdeep Bains and Mark Garneau, will they start to say something?
00:39:41.240And my hunch is they won't, not immediately. But, like, look, new MPs are dragged up the
00:39:48.240House of Commons by their own leader and by the prime minister. Does Justin Trudeau really want
00:39:55.620to be the the prime minister who drags the new mp for toronto saint paul's up the center aisle of
00:40:00.640the house of commons like man you know yeah some decisions to make pretty fast yeah i know i think
00:40:08.340you raise a valid point there and i'm also curious and again i i never like the armchair psychoanalysis
00:40:13.380of politicians but with justin turno i do find it fascinating because there's there's something that
00:40:18.040i've suspected and i'm curious if you agree or not that he doesn't really care what party he
00:40:23.440leaves behind, that he's okay if it sort of is a sinking ship and he takes it down. And I'm not
00:40:28.940convinced that he's as focused on legacy for the party. And I wonder how, if you take that to a
00:40:35.600context of the next election, if that weighs in, because I do think the party would have a better
00:40:40.020time rebuilding. They're certainly not going to win the next election at this stage, even if they
00:40:45.080have an interim leader. But the reality is they would probably set themselves up a little bit
00:40:51.240better to start having those succession discussions now instead of, you know, the day after the 2025
00:40:56.500election. But I'm curious if I'm projecting something on him that you don't necessarily see.
00:41:02.600I had a really chilling moment in conversation with a member of Trudeau's caucus,
00:41:09.420probably five or six months ago, where I said, I have always thought that Trudeau,
00:41:15.800the day he leaves will be the day he stops caring about the future of the Liberal Party.
00:41:19.480and he just decides that he has to make a decision for himself and this MP said do you think he has
00:41:27.740ever cared about the Liberal Party it was shattered when he came along and he used it as
00:41:33.740a vehicle or a you know a kind of a hitching post for for a very personal movement and that
00:41:45.400But there was never a time when concerns about the future of the Liberal Party without Trudeau
00:41:52.780weighed much in his own career decisions.
00:41:57.600It's one thing for me to say that, but for me to hear that from somebody who sits and
00:42:02.920hears from the Prime Minister every week in Liberal caucus meetings was a different moment.
00:42:11.280But I do think that the final calculation, the decision to leave will be based on whether he's done, and there won't be a lot of bandwidth for thinking about what's going to happen in the Liberal Party next.
00:42:30.080I thought my thesis was kind of snarky, but it's not even as audacious or as radical as the one you got from a Liberal member of Parliament.
00:42:37.980Paul Wells, you can catch him on Substack,
00:42:40.700many other places, but I love his Substack.
00:43:03.580longtime political observer, commentator, author.
00:43:06.460I actually quoted his book about Stephen Harper in my book on Polyev because there was a fascinating Polyev quote about social conservatives in there.
00:43:14.880Continuing along here, I wanted to bring in Raheem Mohamed.
00:43:17.900Now, he was one of the early adopters, the early boosters of True North.
00:43:21.780So we always have a soft spot for him.
00:43:23.240Now he's doing tremendous work at the National Post and has just secured a fantastic new gig talking about Ottawa's relations with the West for the National Post.
00:43:33.380Raheem Mohamed, good to talk to you, sir.
00:44:14.060Speed read those 200 pages over a weekend. It's good to be well spent.
00:44:17.580What is it you were looking for? Because you're coming at this from a different perspective.
00:44:21.620You're not a Laurentian elite. You're not one of the typical Ottawa
00:44:24.320reporters that weighs in on politics. You're coming at this as a Westerner.
00:44:29.120And I'm curious what you saw and took away from the by-election results.
00:44:33.760Well, for me, if I'm Chrystia Freeland and I'm Justin Trudeau, if I can concoct a writing, you know, out of a Petri dish, where hopefully this messaging coming out of April's budget, you know, surrounding the budget itself, and in particular surrounding the capital gains inclusion rate changes coming out of the budget,
00:44:59.800where I would expect this rhetoric to have some sort of traction,
00:45:06.460that riding would look an awful lot like Toronto-St. Paul's.
00:45:14.500It doesn't get much more Main Street than Toronto-St. Paul's.
00:45:18.600It's about median income by the standards of Ontario,
00:45:22.720about median income smack dab in the middle socioeconomically by the standards of Canada.
00:45:27.720So if there's anywhere where particularly Chrystia Freeland's messaging about, you know, a kinder, gentler Canada having the rich pay their fair share, if there's anywhere where you would expect that sort of messaging to resonate, it would be a riding that looks an awful lot like Toronto St. Paul.
00:45:47.080And we did not see that. And to make matters even worse for the Liberals, they can't point the finger at the NDP. The NDP had a much worse showing yesterday than they did back in 2021, losing about six points.
00:46:02.920So you saw, you know, pretty much a straight up race between, you know, Paulyev's message and the liberal message coming out of the budget, hitting some of those class warfare notes much stronger than had been in the case previously.
00:46:20.560And the Liberal message was found wanting, which if I'm Chrystia Freeland in particular, you know, I wagered a lot of political capital on this by-election.
00:46:30.960I'm very concerned and I'm thinking my days in the finance portfolio may be numbered.
00:46:36.760Well, you know, you raise a valid point.
00:46:38.880I mean, we saw all the last few days, you know, every Liberal cabinet minister imaginable going and knocking on doors in St. Paul's.
00:46:45.100And, you know, the cruel reckoning that they have to deal with here is maybe they were costing votes.
00:46:50.220Maybe when Chrystia Freeland comes to your door and says, I want you to vote for Leslie Church, at this point you're like, oh, who's the other guy?
00:46:58.220Yeah, and it's worth noting that Leslie Church, prior to getting into electoral politics, she was a senior staffer for Freeland for a long time in the office of the Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, rising up to Freeland's Chief of Staff.
00:47:15.340So not only is Freeland front and center stumping for church throughout the campaign, including those remarks she gave on Monday, calling conservative voters, I think, cruel and small and mean, but also you had a close ally who actually didn't live in the riding, you know, nominated to run in the riding and not doing much to shed any sort of association with Chrystia Freeland.
00:47:44.520So, I mean, you have in a way a sort of double whammy for Freeland and not only did her message fail, not only did her sort of personal appearances not seem to move the needle, at least in the direction she would have preferred.
00:47:58.960But also she had, you know, a handpicked close ally run in the riding and failed to bring it home.
00:48:06.560You were pointing out as well the Israel factor.
00:48:10.320And I mean, foreign policy is not typically an issue that moves votes in Canadian elections.